Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
833 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Decreased PoPs a little this evening as the radar is not showing
much for returns in the southeast. Also, expanded the fog
potential a little more as soundings are pretty saturated in the
southeast overnight from recent RAP runs. It still looks like the
main fog potential will be east of Billings. Reimer
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night...
An upper low centered over east-central Montana will move
southeastward into South Dakota this evening into Tuesday. As it
does so the overall trend will be for showers and thunderstorms
to diminish from northwest to southeast.
For this afternoon into this evening, showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are likely mainly over southeast MT as a disturbance
rotates around the upper low. Over south central MT-north central
WY, isolated showers are possible through late this afternoon due
to some weak instability and moisture in place. As the evening
goes on the chance of showers will decrease as the disturbance
moves out of the area and instability decreases with the loss of
solar heating. Additional rainfall for southeast MT will be around
0.10 inches. Over south central MT and north central WY, upper
ridging will then slide eastward into the area and produce drier
conditions tonight.
As skies clear out tonight, patchy fog is possible. Confidence of
fog is higher from Rosebud County eastward. Any fog should burn
off by 10 AM MDT Tuesday.
Upper ridging will dominate the weather for much of the area
Tuesday with dry and warmer conditions. There is a slight chance
of a shower over southern Carter County Tuesday as another
disturbance moves southeastward over the area on the western side
of the upper low. By Tuesday night, the upper low will have moved
far enough away from the region that the entire area will be dry.
High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s Tuesday. Low
temperatures will generally be in the 30s and 40s tonight and 40s
Tuesday night. RMS
Wednesday through Sunday...
Warm dry pre-frontal day on Wednesday with sunny skies and
temperatures in the 70s. Cold front moves into Wednesday night
from the northeast bringing low chances for precipitation but much
cooler temperatures for Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s to
around 60 degrees. Temperatures climb back to seasonal levels with
dry northwest flow over the area through the weekend. Some
ensemble members bring a pretty good cold front through late
Saturday into Sunday, but latest NBM temp guidance and spread have
not caught onto this feature yet, so may see cooler temperatures
and some precipitation chances for the end of the weekend that are
not currently in the forecast. Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of fog are expected to develop late evening into the
overnight hours with potential for fog at all TAF sites, but with
highest confidence in SE Montana for KMLS and KBHK. Where fog
develops expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist through about
15z Tuesday morning before beginning to lift/break up.
Chambers/Vertz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/070 046/074 046/060 041/064 042/068 044/067 044/072
00/U 00/U 11/B 00/U 00/B 10/U 01/U
LVM 040/072 040/075 040/065 038/068 038/070 038/069 038/072
00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/U
HDN 043/071 040/076 042/063 037/065 037/069 039/070 039/073
10/U 00/U 11/B 00/U 00/B 10/U 00/U
MLS 047/068 045/074 044/055 035/061 038/066 040/067 040/070
20/U 00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 046/066 043/073 044/057 036/061 039/066 040/067 041/071
21/B 00/U 12/W 10/U 00/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 047/066 044/072 037/051 029/057 034/063 037/064 038/068
21/B 00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 042/068 041/073 041/063 038/064 038/068 039/068 038/072
20/U 00/U 02/W 10/U 00/B 11/U 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
534 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 227PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
The area continues to be impacted by a persistent, slow-moving ULL
to our north across eastern Montana this afternoon. Further
upstream, an amplifying upper level ridge will become entrenched
across the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, allowing the ULL to
begin to slide to the south and east. At the surface, RAP frontal
analysis depicts a stationary front draped across Southern WY,
primarily along the I-80 corridor. This stationary frontal boundary
extends into southwest NE before it transitions northward into the
northern Plains of the Dakotas. Weak instability is present this
afternoon as breaks in the cloud cover, lapse rates from the surface
to the mid-levels of 6.5-8 degrees C/km, and abundant moisture have
contributed to shower and thundershower activity development by 18Z
today. Brief, gusty and erratic winds up to 35mph have been observed
with some of the rain shower activity. Model soundings do show
inverted-V features from about 700mb down to the surface, so rain
shower activity with embedded thunderstorms are likely to result in
continued gusty winds through the evening hours. The NamNest and
HRRR output for this afternoon shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms occurring in SE WY through approximately 6Z, but the
northern forecast zones of SE WY and the NE Panhandle do have the
opportunity to see scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
overnight hours to near daybreak of Tuesday. This is supported by
upper level dynamics showing multiple shortwaves associated with the
upper level trough axis pushing through the region today into
tomorrow morning.
Due to decreasing cloud cover in our western forecast zones as the
ULL slowly moves to the east and south, temperatures will decrease
to near or below freezing for several areas west of the Laramie
Range. Areas of frost are looking highly favorable for the valley
regions of Carbon and Albany County due to the cold pooling of the
dense, cool air. Have decided against a frost/freeze headline for
the overnight period into Tuesday morning due to only areas of frost
being forecast. This may need another evaluation after the evening
model guidance arrives to determine whether a short-term headline
issuance is necessary. The remainder of Tuesday will see isolated
showers and a possible thunderstorm east of the I-25 corridor
through the late afternoon hours due to the ULL moving east, and
away from the region. Mostly clear skies on Tuesday night will bring
morning lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for several areas west of
the Laramie Range. The Snowy/Sierra Madre mountain ranges are likely
to see middle to upper 20s. It will be another opportunity for
possible frost/hard freeze headlines.
Mostly sunny skies will be present on Wednesday as pleasant
conditions return to the cwa. Afternoon highs will reach the 60s and
70s for a majority of the area. However, the higher terrain of the
Snowy/Sierra Madre Ranges will struggle to reach 50 degrees. Mostly
clear skies on Wednesday night will allow for most areas to creep a
couple degrees colder by sunrise Thursday. Morning lows will range
from the upper 20s west of the Laramie Range, to the upper 30s east
of the Laramie Range. This will be the first opportunity of the
month for frost being possible along the Pine Ridge corridor of
Converse, Niobrara, Sioux, and Dawes County. Another potential area
will be along HWY 26 in Goshen County toward the Scotts Bluff County
corridor. Will need to keep an eye on this for possible cold
temperature headlines into the NE Panhandle. Overall, expect a
pleasant next couple of days with the return of sunshine to
region.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
A cool & fairly quiet extended forecast period can be expected for
southeast Wyo & the western Neb Panhandle beneath fairly dry north
westerly flow aloft. A series of weak disturbances embedded within
the larger scale flow pattern will contribute to occasional shower
chances through the period, but any precipitation should be fairly
light. A cold frontal passage Thu night & Fri should be the signal
for more widespread frost as lows fall into the lower 30s for much
of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the
evening hours. Gusty, erratic winds as well as small hail is
possible in storms. Conditions will likely remain VFR for most
terminals. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible due to
visibility drops in moderate to heavy rain. Light scattered
showers may continue into the overnight hours. Tuesday looks mostly
dry with VFR conditions expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Fire weather concerns will remain at none to low due to
recent precipitation and cool temperatures across the area.
Peak wind gusts are not expected to be higher than 20 mph
today unless there is a nearby thunderstorm, where max wind
gusts to 35mph will be present. Minimum RH values will be
hover near 40% today and tomorrow, before decreasing to 30%
by the middle of the week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered over the central Great Lakes and low pressure
positioned over the northern Plains. Like the past several days,
mid-level clouds continue to pour over the ridge and into the
western half of Wisconsin. A few sprinkles reached as far east the
US-51/I-39 corridor this morning, but have since dissipated. As
large scale features slowly move east over the next 24 hours, rain
chances and fog potential are the main forecast concerns.
Tonight...The mid-level ridge axis will slowly move east into
northern Lake Michigan. This should allow clouds above 10 kft to
push further east across northeast WI. However, dry air below this
level will continue to circulate around the high and across
northeast WI, which will thwart precip chances over the eastern
part of the state. With shortwave energy approaching western Lake
Superior late tonight, it`s possible a few sprinkles could make a
run at north-central WI after midnight. Temps should be warmer
tonight with more in the way of cloud cover. Some lows may still
approach the low 40s over east-central WI where clearing will hold
on the longest. The warmer temps should also mitigate the fog
threat.
Tuesday...The weak impulse will lift northeast over far western
Lake Superior, while low pressure over the Dakotas will move
slightly closer to the region. Mid and high clouds will continue
to be more widespread over central and north-central WI, but think
the chance of sprinkles will depart early Tuesday morning with the
weak impulse. Southwest winds will draw in warmer air with highs
in the low to mid 70s away from Lake Michigan.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Forecast concerns will be centered on the Wednesday night to
Thursday night period, when a strong cold front brings showers,
lake-effect snow in north central WI, gusty northwest winds,
possible gale force gusts on Lake Michigan, and much colder
temperatures.
The forecast area will remain on the northwest periphery of a
large high pressure system Tuesday night. A weak upper level
trough will approach the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, and
may produce a few light showers in north central and central WI
late in the day. Mild conditions will continue, with lows in the
45 to 50 range Tuesday night, and highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s Wednesday.
A powerful cold front will approach the area Wednesday evening,
then move through the forecast area overnight into early Thursday.
Showers will increase, especially across the northeast half of
the forecast area, as strong frontogenetic forcing moves through.
Strong CAA will occur in the wake of the front, with 850 mb
temperatures in east central WI dropping from around 10 C to -4 C
on Thursday. Persistent cold NNW-N flow and lake-850 mb delta-t`s
of at least 20 C will lead to lake-effect in NC WI and Door
County from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The first
snow of the season is expected in north central WI Thursday night,
though only light accumulations are anticipated in Vilas county.
Winds will likely gust to 30 to 35 mph at inland locations
Thursday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 35+ knots (gale
force) on Lake Michigan. Temperatures will drop well below normal,
with highs only in the 40s to around 50 by Friday. Continued the
trend of increasing the blended model winds/gusts regionwide, and
pops in NC WI (lake-effect), during the Thursday through Friday
morning period.
Dry conditions are expected for the weekend and early next week,
with a gradual moderating trend. There could be some frost in the
Fox Valley/lakeshore areas (where frost/freeze headlines are
still being issued) on Friday night, but winds may be too strong
for a widespread frost or freeze.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Low pressure
slowly moving across the northern Plains and northern Mississippi
Valley will continue to spread a mix of mid and high clouds
across the area. A few showers and sprinkles will be possible at
times at RHI/AUW/CWA but will have no aviation impact. Winds will
remain light, mainly out of the south/southwest.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
958 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will slowly drift east across the Mid-Atlantic
States to the Atlantic Ocean through Tuesday, maintaining a
northerly breeze and scattered clouds. Temperatures will slowly warm
through late in the week, before a dry cold front ushers in colder
temperatures for this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Evening Update...No sigfnt changes needed over the near term.
Upper clouds continue to traverse the area associated with a
passing vort wave. Expect another h5 wave overnight keeping some
measure of upper moisture across the FA, yet not enuf to offset
good rad cooling conds over most locales. The mtn valleys will
be favored for any dense fog that that forms as the latest RAP
sfc CPDs become saturated before daybreak. Otherwise, expect
efficient cooling and mins below normal by a few degrees outside
of NE GA and the wrn Upstate where cloudiness may linger
longer.
Otherwise...An upper-low will meander just south of the Mid-
Atlantic region with the low pressure center remaining NE of the
western Carolinas and NE GA through the near term fcst period.
This will allow northerly cyclonic flow to continue over the
Carolinas and NE Georgia leading to below climo temps through
Tuesday. The southern periphery of a sfc ridge will continue to
extend into the CWA into Tuesday. This will allow dry
conditions to continue. Taller ridgetops have the potential to
see some patchy frost with lows expected to fall into the mid to
upper 30s. Wind direction turns NW`ly on Tuesday, with wind
speeds becoming low-end breezy again. Highs will be a tad warmer
Tuesday compared to today, but still remaining around 2-5
degrees below climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Heights ridge Wednesday as short wave ridge
builds in behind the departing remnants of Ian with nearly zonal
flow for Thursday. Warm and dry high pressure builds in at the
surface. Highs a few degrees below normal Wednesday rise to a little
above normal for Thursday. Lows around 10 degrees below normal
Tuesday night rise a few degrees for Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Monday: Broad upper trough remains over the eastern
CONUS through Sunday with heights rising slightly on Monday as a
ridge begins building over the MS valley. At the surface, a dry
cold front crosses the area Friday ushering in a cold air mass
across the area. High pressure builds in through the period with the
air mass slowly moderating. Highs Friday will be near to a few
degrees above normal then falling to around 10 degrees below normal
through the rest of the period. Lows start out around 5 degrees
below normal then drop to around 15 degrees below normal for
Saturday night and Sunday night. These temperatures will bring a
threat of a widespread freeze to a significant portion of the NC
mountains with widespread frost potential for the rest of the
mountains and NC foothills and NW Piedmont, along with normally
colder and more sheltered locations across the rest of the area. As
usual, stay tuned to the latest forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The pattern remains conducive for good rad
cooling overnight, however, think the best chance of fog/StCu will
be across the NC mtn valleys including KAVL where sfc tdd/s and
cpd/s remain the lowest. The main threat at KAVL will be fog with
VLIFR VSBY probable btw 10z-13z. An offshore sfc low will push in
the midAtl region Tue and interact with hipres building in from the
northwest. This will make for nw/ly sfc winds thru the latter
periods aft a morning inversion becomes well mixed.
Outlook: Surface high pressure will remain in place through Thursday
before a dry cold front tracks across the area on Friday. High
pressure builds back in behind the departing front this weekend.
This will lead to dry and generally VFR conditions through the end
of the week outside of mountain valley fog potential each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AP/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1134 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north through at least Midweek
providing for fair weather, warm days, and cool crisp nights.
The only fly in the ointment may be a storm system to our south
that may graze the region with unsettled weather on Wednesday.
A cold front looks to approach late Friday bringing a chance of
showers. Much cooler temperatures are then expected over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130pm Update...Temperatures north of the lakes region in NH and
Sebago Lake in ME have largely fallen into the 30s at this hour.
A thicker band of cirrostratus has been pivoting northward and
has stalled temp declines or even bumped temps up a couple
degrees. This has again been refined to the southern half of the
CWA, but will likely persist northward into regions already in
the mid to upper 30s.
820pm Update...The densest cirrus shield over southern NH
continues to erode over central NH and far southern ME. This is
most apparent on WV imagery and 00z GYX RAOB. Don`t expect these
to impact radiational cooling too much outside of southern NH
where sky cover will be most dense. Area temperatures are within
a couple degrees of last night`s temps at this hour...perhaps a
little warmer across the mountains/foothills and cooler along
the immediate coast. Frost/Freeze headlines are in good
standing, but it will be a close call for coastal
Cumberland/York. With light winds from the NNW draining across
the interior butting up against NE winds over the coastal
waters, there will be a fairly tight temperature gradient just a
couple miles inland, likely most apparent in valleys. Continued
frost wording in sheltered locations for all but some of the
immediate coastal communities, which admittedly takes up a
large portion of these zones.
Previous Discussion...
The center of the surface high pressure will be centered over
northern New England tonight, and very dry air and light to calm
winds will provide excellent conditions for radiational
cooling. Temperatures will drop very quickly toward and after
sunset, and another night of frost and freeze conditions are
expected, primarily away from the coast. The one stipulation is
that quite a bit of cirrus may also stick around. There is more
confidence in this being a factor across southern NH,
potentially keeping the overnight temps a tad warmer and frost
coverage low enough to leave Cheshire, Hillsborough, and
Rockingham out of the Frost Advisory.
Elsewhere, inland low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid
30s have prompted Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings to be issued
for virtually the same areas as last night and this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control on Tuesday, giving NH and
western ME another dry day. High temperatures are generally
expected to be similar or a degree or two warmer than today, but
southerly upper- level winds ahead of an upper-level low over
the Mid- Atlantic states will bring in a thickening cirrus layer
into northern New England could keep temps a little lower than
what is currently depicted in the forecast.
Temperatures will start to moderate Tuesday night due to an increase
in low-level moisture and also quite a bit of upper-level clouds
sticking around. Mots will see overnight lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, but more sheltered locations could still reach the mid
30s while also seeing some patchy frost.
The low pressure of what`s left of Ian will slowly meander offshore
of the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night, and models are showing higher
moisture along with some shower activity approaching southern NH and
southwestern coastal ME. So will continue to mention the 20-30% PoPs
across this area, which is supported by the 12Z HRRR and
NAMNest.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of low pressure parked off the Mid Atlantic coastline will
start to shift east northeast Wednesday. Short wave ridging slides
over the area Thursday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes. The
trough over the Great Lakes swings into New England Friday with a
cold front crossing the region late afternoon and overnight. This
front brings scattered showers over the interior with rain showers
changing to snow showers in the higher terrain late Friday night
and Saturday morning. Much cooler air arrives behind the front
Saturday with upslope flow maintaining clouds and rain or snow
showers in the mountains through Saturday night. High pressure
then builds in from the SW late weekend into early next week for
mostly dry weather and moderating temperatures.
Cool and cloudy weather is expected across the southern third of the
area Wednesday as steady ENE flow continues on the northern
periphery of low pressure south of New England. Highs will range
from the low to mid 60s across the south to the mid to upper 60s
across the north where there will be more sunshine. The proximity of
the low south of New England will also bring slight chances for
showers across the NH/MA border into coastal Maine. Low pressure
will make better progress to the ENE Wednesday night as the next
upstream trough digs into the Great Lakes. Short wave ridging ahead
of the next trough will slide overhead Thursday allowing for mostly
sunny skies and highs rising into the upper 60s to low 70s
areawide.
As the next trough progresses eastward, low pressure will track
through the St Lawrence Valley Friday. This low will drag a cold
front across the area late Friday afternoon and overnight, although
temperatures will likely warm into the 60s to low 70s ahead of the
front. Chances for showers increase across northern and western
zones Friday afternoon and overnight while areas near the coast may
stay mostly dry. As colder air filters into the region rain
showers may change to snow showers across the higher terrain
late Friday night. Saturday will be much cooler as the cold
front pushes well offshore with northern areas staying in the
40s and southern areas in 50s for high temperatures. Brisk west
northwest will also be present over the area bringing wind
chills well below freezing in the higher terrain. Upslope flow
will also continue chances for rain and snow showers in the
mountains for much of Saturday. High pressure starts to build in
from the SW Sunday, although the gradient between this high and
deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
continue breezy conditions Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Another round of valley fog is expected at LEB and
perhaps HIE tonight and possibly Tuesday night as well.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at all other sites
through Tuesday. An area of low pressure passing south of New
England could bring MVFR ceilings toward MHT and the coastal
terminals Tuesday evening along with a few showers for PSM and
MHT. However, confidence is on the lower side.
Long Term...Low pressure well south of New England will spread
cloud cover across the southern third of the area Wednesday and
slight chances for showers. VFR will likely prevail Wednesday,
although there could be periods of MVFR cigs across southern and
coastal terminals. VFR for all is expected Thursday into Friday.
A cold front crosses late Friday bringing scattered showers
across the interior and potential for MVFR conditions at KHIE
and KLEB. As colder air filters into the region late Friday
night rain showers may mix with snow at KHIE bring further
restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term... Seas continue to on the slower side to diminish so
have extended the SCA for the Stonington to Port Clyde zone through
8PM this evening. The SCA for the southern waters has been extended
through Tuesday afternoon but probably will need to go beyond this
as northeast winds will start to increase again Tuesday night.
Long Term...Low pressure well south of New England will
continue steady NE flow Wednesday with SCAs possible due to seas
greater than 5 ft. Seas gradually subside Thursday with
generally light winds over the waters. Southerly to southwest
flow increases Friday ahead of a cold front approaching from the
west. SCAs may be needed again late Friday night into Saturday
as southerly flow shifts out of the west with gusts up to 25
kts.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ012>014-018>020-
033.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ021-022-025>028.
NH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NHZ003>007.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NHZ008>010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Combs/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
849 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Made a few adjustments to the precipitation chances across the
Palmer Divide and far Eastern Plains for the rest of tonight based
on the latest radar data and high-res model guidance. Light rain
showers will likely prevail through around midnight. Also removed
the mention of thunderstorms given the hour and lack of support.
Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 601 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Updated precipitation chances across the region for tonight. A
band of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to lift
northeast, from a Kim to Eads line. A boundary sitting across the
lower Arkansas River Valley also has light showers and embedded
thunderstorms. This activity should continue to track eastward
this evening. High-res model guidance continues to print out
showers and thunderstorms over Teller and El Paso Counties this
evening. Radar and satellite imagery has a few light rain showers
showing up. Instability is rather weak and have a feeling not
much more than light rain will move across this area through the
next couple of hours. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Key Message:
1) Little change in the pattern, as occasional showers/thunderstorms
will continue overnight and through the day on Tuesday.
Currently, showers/thunderstorms have developed on the plains from
near Trinidad to Lamar, where low level moisture convergence was
maximized along weak surface trough/frontal boundary. Have had a
couple small hail reports with the stronger cells back toward
Trinidad earlier today, though overall storm intensity has been
limited by only moderate instability (CAPE of around 500 J/KG)
available ahead of the boundary. Convection has been slower to
develop elsewhere across the area this afternoon, as slightly drier
air spreading south on the plains behind the front has led to only
very low instability (CAPE less than 200 J/KG), while weak
subsidence under the right front quad of the upper jet was tending
to squash storms over the mountains. For this evening and overnight,
upper forcing becomes slightly more favorable for precip formation
as right rear quad of the jet moves across and low levels moisten a
bit, with most CAMs developing at least scattered convection along
the eastern mountain slopes and nrn I-25 corridor through midnight,
then pushing some weakening activity onto the plains into Tue
morning. Overall, trimmed back pops somewhat over the mountains
overnight, where precip will shift eastward by midnight, though
most locations will keep at least an isolated mention through the
night.
On Tuesday, models differ with placement of precip on the plains in
the morning, with a handful of fairly wet solutions (12z/18z NAM),
while bulk of solutions (HRRR/12z GFS especially) keep surface
trough and resultant precip farther east. Forecast splits the
difference with scattered pops most areas through midday, highest
south of the Arkansas River. By afternoon, mountains, especially
along and south of Highway 50, light up with convection, though
HRRR and GFS keep heaviest rainfall farther south in NM. Again, pops
lean toward a blended solution, with chances most locations and
likely pops srn mountains and srn I-25 corridor. Instability not
particularly high, so mainly showers with weak isolated
thunderstorms will be the precip type. Max temps along and east of
the mountains and across the plains should trend downward several
degf as cooler air filters into the region, while mountains and
valleys remain seasonably cool.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Key Messages:
1. Scattered rain chances especially in the Palmer Divide and in the
southern portions of the County Warning Area.
2. Snow accumulations possible in high elevations above 11000 feet.
3. Possible first cold air event of the season next week throughout
the CWA.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday
Low Pressure trough over Montana will begin its trek eastward, this
will draw in moisture from the southwest, causing some upsloping in
the southern part of the Country Warning Area and a little in the
Palmer Divide. There will be enough moisture and lift to produce
scattered showers and embedded thunder. This trough will bring in a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and temperatures
will be just below seasonal averages, with highs in the 60`s and
70`s in the I-25 corridor and eastward, and in the 50`s and 60`s in
the mountains and mountain valleys. Light snowfall at levels above
11000 feet are still possible during the evening hours throughout
the forecast period.
Thursday through Monday
Northwest flow aloft will prevail the next few days, stemming from
low pressure trough to the east, and an upper low will form in the
desert in the southwest US, enabling more moisture to come into 4
corners area. This could increase rain chances in our CWA ahead of
a possible strong cold front moving through the region mid week,
which could bring the first cold weather of the season to the
plains, mountains and mountain valleys.
-Riser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Mon Oct 3 2022
At KCOS, prevailing conditions will be VFR through the period,
with a low risk of brief MVFR cigs as vcsh develops from 22z-05z.
Also a small risk of a vcts 00z-03z, though won`t include in
the taf at this point. After precip ends, low VFR cigs may hold on
for much of the night, before slowly lifting Tue morning. On
Tuesday, slight chance of a vcsh/vcts after 21z.
At KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Risk of a vcsh this evening after
02z, though cigs/vis should remain VFR into Tue morning. Slight
chance of a vcsh/vcts after 22z Tue.
At KALS, mainly low VFR cigs into the evening, with a vcsh and
perhaps a brief period of MVFR cigs from 21z-03z. Low risk of a vcts
as well 22z-01z, though chance still looks too low to mention in the
forecast at this point. Precip chances end 02z-04z, though low
VFR/brief MVFR cigs may linger through the night into Tue morning.
Slight chance of a vcsh/vcts returns Tue afternoon, after 21z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...RISER
AVIATION...PETERSEN