Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/03/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 1038 PM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions develop Monday through mid-week as the low
moves further offshore and high pressure builds into the area
with continued cooler than normal temperatures. More seasonable
temperatures by late week with dry conditions continuing. A cold
front will pass by the end of the week, with temperatures
returning to below for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough remains anchored over the eastern CONUS in the
near term as a few shortwaves rotate around the low. These may
produce a few sprinkles over the northeastern cwa later tonight,
but nothing measurable expected. The attendant vorticity will
work on lingering moisture (PW around 1") to generate scattered
to broken clouds expected to remain for the overnight hours.
Additionally, weak CAA from NW flow aloft and NLY surface winds
will keep temperatures below normal. Continued mixing of the
boundary layer overnight should limit cooling and negate the
threat for fog. Overnight lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A closed upper level low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic
States will very slowly move off the coast early this week. Cooler
air advected southward on the backside of this upper low will wedge
in along the Appalachians and keep temperatures below normal
Monday through Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s north to mid
70s south. Temperatures will warm on Wednesday after the upper
low continues to move off into the Atlantic Ocean and a
shortwave ridge builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave ridge moves quickly across the region Wednesday Night
through Thursday which allows a warming trend to continue.

A deep upper level trough develops over the Eastern U.S. late this
week and into next weekend. A cold front moves across the Southeast
U.S. Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be above normal
ahead of the front on Friday and then drop 15 to 20 degrees for next
weekend as strong Canadian high pressure builds into the Eastern
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR in the near term, with MVFR CIGs expected later tonight.

An upper low to our N/NE will move slowly east overnight and
Monday and lead to development of a surface low off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to indicate low level
Atlantic moisture wrapping counterclockwise around the low.
Latest satellite and surface obs indicate MVFR CIGs have pushed
SW into the Pee Dee of SC. Latest HRRR trending with higher
probabilities of MVFR CIGs at our TAF sites later tonight.
including AGS/DNL. Winds are also expected to stay up enough to
preclude any fog formation in any areas where less cloud cover
present.

Guidance indicates the clouds to slowly shift SE out of CAE/CUB
by afternoon, and eventually out of OGB later, with winds
picking up out of the NNE. Drier low level air will filter into
the region Monday night/Tuesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected late
Monday through Friday. Some localized shallow ground fog possible at
fog prone AGS early Thursday morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

 535 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Latest GOES WV imagery continues to show a closed upper level low
spinning across the northern Rockies. This has been the culprit of
the wet pattern across the CWA so far this weekend. Rain showers
have developed over the southern Nebraska Panhandle ahead of one
leading shortwave ejecting from the upper level low. Additional
showers and thunderstorms have also begun developing farther west
along the higher terrain. Hi-res guidance continues to show
scattered coverage of storms through 9 PM across the area. Gusty
outflow winds will be the main hazard, especially along and west of
the Laramie Range where SPC has highlighted an area of Day 1
Marginal Risk. Storms earlier this afternoon resulted in observed
wind gusts around 45 mph which will continue to be supported with
the 40-45 kt 500mb jet in the area.

Headed into Monday, this upper level low that has remained
stationary to our west for much of the weekend will begin to
progress eastward. Will see another chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday with this system before a drier pattern
returns. The main focus for storms should be along the I-80 corridor
from Laramie to Sidney and up to the North Platte River valley.
Latest RAP shows up to 600 J/kg of MLCAPE along and east of the
South Laramie Range which should be the focal point for CI early in
the afternoon. Latest NBM has been trending towards less cloud cover
in the morning over this region which could enhance heating before
afternoon storm development. Shear will be strong enough for at
least some organized convection as 500mb flow increases up to 40 kt.
Could see gusty outflow winds being the main threat with these
storms as the upper level trough axis moves across the CWA.

Storms may continue into the evening as 700mb temps drop towards 2C
Monday night leading to overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. Have
not had a season ending hard freeze for any lower elevation zones
just yet, but the latest forecast drops the Laramie Valley near 32F
Monday night (Laramie Airport briefly dropped to 25F on Sept. 11th,
but unofficial downtown observations reported a low of 35F). NBM
v4.1 probability of dropping below the freezing mark approaches 50%
across the Laramie Valley Monday night and only increases later this
week.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

The extended outlook for our cwa includes near seasonal temperatures
with multiple multiple shortwaves moving across the region in the
next week.  On Tuesday, the cut-off ULL responsible for the daily
rain shower and thunderstorm activity from the past few days will
ultimately become absorbed in the steering flow aloft and begin to
push to the east across the Central Plains. The backside of this ULL
may have a weak lobe of vorticity max create some weak rain shower
activity in our northern forecast zones of SE WY and the NE
Panhandle, but it is unlikely to be heavy at this time of inspection.
CAA will continue to be present on Tuesday as cloud cover will be
slow to move out of the region. 700mb temperatures will range from
+2C to -2C on Tuesday afternoon across the northern NE Panhandle,
with slightly warmer temperatures advecting into the region by
Tuesday afternoon in our WY forecast zones.  Daytime highs struggle
to reach the 60s by the afternoon hours across most of the forecast
area as there will be cool northwest flow advection colder air into
the region behind the departing ULL. Have reduced the PoPs for
Tuesday due to the model guidance suggesting a slightly more dry
solution overall. With the clearing skies expected in the western
forecast zones, temperatures near or below freezing west of the
Laramie Range for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be
expected. This will be the first of many opportunities for frost
across the area as the remainder of the extended forecast has a high
probability for frost in the higher terrain to Laramie Valley.

Wednesday will see a return of mostly sunny skies, which will likely
be the first day to see a full day of mostly clear skies since the
previous weekend. This is in response to an upper level ridge
amplification across the Four Corners region of the CONUS toward our
cwa. Afternoon highs will range from the 60s to the middle 70s
across the lower terrain, and slightly cooler in the higher
elevations. We can expect dry conditions for Wednesday into early
Thursday. The upper level ridge will begin to become flattened by
midday Thursday, and northwest flow aloft will allow for a weak
shortwave to potentially clip the cwa by Thursday night into Friday.
Model guidance is trending with slightly higher potential for PoPs
on Friday for areas east of the Laramie Range via a cool front, so
have decreased temperatures for daytime highs for now.

More of the same is likely for the weekend as the northwest flow
aloft will assist with another potential shortwave bringing moisture
to the area. Additionally, tropical moisture from the Pacific will
be lingering across the Four Corners area by next weekend, per the
extended model guidance. The trends for the extended model continue
to hint at a monsoon surge for precipitation opportunities to round
out next weekend. We will continue to monitor the extended forecast
as there may be the first opportunity for a widespread strong cold
front to impact the area by mid-October, but until then we are
expecting near seasonal temperatures for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast across
central Wyoming over the next few hours with impacts to mainly KLAR
and KRWL. This activity is expected to weaken as it pushes
northeast, with mainly rain showers after 02z. Periods of brief rain
showers are possible for KCDR, KBFF, and KAIA through 05z.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Locally heavy rainfall and erratic gusty
winds are possible with thunderstorm activity this evening with
brief MVFR conditions due to lower VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected with relatively light south to southeast winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Minimal fire weather concerns early this week as chances for
precipitation continue Sunday and Monday. Afternoon RHs look to
remain well above critical thresholds with great overnight
recoveries. Drier weather pattern will begin midweek, however near
normal temperatures for early October will keep afternoon RHs around
30-50 percent through next weekend. Driest spots will be across
Carbon County.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...MB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 453 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
an upper air low spinning over the central MT giving the CWA a west-
southwesterly flow aloft. Current satellite imagery shows cloud
cover over eastern CO with surface observations continuing to show
breezy southerly winds across the region while radar imagery is
showing echoes in northern Yuma county. Models show the low moving
into eastern MT overnight keeping the upper air flow the same over
the CWA. At the surface, breezy conditions look to continue through
the early evening with southerly winds gusting up to around 35 mph.
Showers with a possible isolated sub-severe thunderstorm or two look
to move into the eastern CO during the late afternoon and evening
hours due to the surface trough set up in eastern CO. A slight
chance for light showers are seen overnight along the KS/NE border
areas. Overnight lows expect to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Monday, model guidance continues to move the upper air low
eastward out of MT and along the ND/SD border with a shortwave
disturbance seen moving over the CWA during the evening hours. At
the surface, chances for showers and thunderstorms are seen
throughout the entire CWA during the latter half of the day and
possibly continuing overnight. QPF values look to have lowered a
little bit though some areas may see around a quarter of an inch.
Confidence looks to have lowered a bit as well for severe weather
potential even though bulk shear values around 35 kts continue to be
seen. CAPE values however look to be almost non-existent in the HRRR
model throughout the day though the NAMNest shows pockets of ~500
J/kg particularly in the western portions. Will continue to monitor
for changes in this potential in case they increase. Elevated fire
weather conditions look possible too for a few hours in areas east
of US-83 with winds gusting up to around 25 mph though minimum RH
values look to stay above criteria. Daytime highs on Monday range
between the middle 70s and the middle 80s while the overnight lows
look to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s range.

On Tuesday, models depict the upper air low moving more east-
southeast slowly throughout the day with the GFS and NAM showing it
ending mostly over eastern SD overnight while the ECMWF has it
slightly more south over the eastern SD/NE border. With this
progression, the CWA sees its upper air flow become westerly midday
and then turn more west-northwesterly overnight. At the surface, a
weak cold front looks to move through the CWA early in the day
allowing for chances of precipitation to continue through the
afternoon before they depart out of the area in the south by the
evening. Fire weather weather does not look to be concern with RHs
being well over criteria and lighter winds compared to previous
days. Daytime highs on Tuesday cool to the upper 60s to middle 70s
range with overnight lows being in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the long term, little change compared to previous forecasts.
Still expecting near seasonable temperatures for the mid part of the
week with a large cool down Friday followed again by near seasonable
temperatures. There is a chance for showers and storms around Friday.

The mid part of the week is still forecasted to be dry and near
seasonable with temperatures as the upper level trough over the High
Plains is forecasted to make its way to the east. In spite of the
area being forecasted to be under northwest flow, ridging and
warming is not really expected to come into play as a cut-off low is
now forecasted to develop and undercut the ridge to the west. This
was hinted at in previous runs and will help limit warm air
advection and how dry the area becomes. But with little forcing,
relatively clear skies are forecasted for Wed & Thur with highs in
the 70`s.

Friday brings a shot of cold air to the area as a cold front moves
through in association with a system that is swinging across the
Great Lakes region. Guidance still varies on how cool temperatures
will get around Friday, but current forecast is in the 50`s with
lows in the 30`s on Friday and Saturday morning. The lows have been
relatively stable in guidance and have a lesser confidence in the
frost/freeze potential. Frost/freeze conditions will be unlikely as
temperatures would struggle to cool to freezing with cloud cover and
possible precipitation in the area while a frost would also be
unlikely due to the same conditions and even with cold air advection
dropping lows into the mid 30`s. As alluded to, precipitation is
possible between late Thursday and Saturday due to the frontal
passage and then moistening of the air column in the front`s wake.
Snow remains unlikely though a rain/snow mix could occur overnight
when temperatures are forecasted to be at their coolest. As for the
highs on Friday, it could be cooler than forecasted if the cloud
cover holds but there is uncertainty on whether the cloud over will
stay through the day.

The weekend then sees warming back towards seasonable temperatures
near the 70 as the area is forecasted to remain under northwest flow
aloft as the high pressure near the surface moves off to the east.
While no precipitation is currently forecasted, that could change as
the northwest flow aloft could allow some shortwaves into the area
and provide some lift.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 453 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

For the forecast period, both terminals will see VFR conditions.
There is a low chance for isolated showers, but due to low
confidence on timing/placement, have left out of the forecast at
this time.

Winds for KGLD, south 20-30kts through 02z Monday, then south-
southwest 10-15kts. By 16z, south 10-20kts. Winds for KMCK, south
20-30kts through 01z-02z, then south-southeast 10-15kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a back
door cold front edging southeast across northeast Wisconsin early
this afternoon. Weak cold advection has sustained the low overcast
longer than expected, but clearing should accelerate this
afternoon as drier air moves in from the east. Meanwhile, warm
advection is occurring on the western side of the low/mid-level
ridge axis. Like the past several days, widely scattered showers
are occurring across Minnesota and western Wisconsin, which are
having trouble moving further east. With large scale features
expected to move little over the next 24 hours, forecast concerns
mainly revolve around cloud trends and fog potential.

Tonight...The backdoor cold front will stall over eastern WI. An
influx of dry air should result in good radiational cooling
conditions in this area. Ensemble guidance points towards areas
from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore as the highest chance of fog
tonight, and it`s hard to argue given the cross-over temps. Will
add a patchy dense fog wording to the HWO. Further west, mid-level
clouds are expected to become more widespread, which will limit
fog potential somewhat. Low temps will range from the upper 30s
over far northeast WI to the mid 40s over central WI.

Monday...Little changes with the synoptic features. Once any
morning fog or stratus burns off, will continue to see scattered
mid-clouds pass across the region, resulting in mostly clear to
partly cloudy skies. Light south winds and more sunshine will
result in a warmer day with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Forecast concerns will be centered on the mid to late part of the
work week, when a strong cold front brings rain, possible lake-
effect snow, gusty northwest winds, possible gale force gusts on
Lake Michigan, and much colder temperatures.

The forecast area will remain on the northwest periphery of a
large high pressure system Monday night through Tuesday night.
Most of this period will be dry, though a few sprinkles could
clip our western or northern counties at times. Pleasant early
fall weather is expected, along with above normal temperatures
through Wednesday.

A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday afternoon, and
bring scattered showers to the northwest half of the forecast
area. Showers will increase, especially across northern WI, as
the frontal passage occurs Wednesday night and a strong short-
wave moves through Thursday morning. Strong CAA will occur in the
wake of the front, with NNW-N flow and lake-850 mb delta-t`s
around 20 C leading to lake-effect in NC WI and Door County from
Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The first snow of the
season is possible in north central WI Thursday night into Friday
morning, though only light accumulations are expected in the
snowbelt. Winds will likely gust to 25 to 35 mph at inland
locations Thursday afternoon and evening, with gusts to near gale
force occurring on Lake Michigan. Temperatures will drop well
below normal, with highs only in the 40s to around 50 by Friday.
Boosted the blended model winds/gusts regionwide, and pops in NC
WI (lake-effect), during the Thursday through Friday morning
period.

Dry but cool conditions are expected next weekend. There could be
some frost in the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas (where frost/freeze
headlines are still being issued), but winds may be too strong.
A dry cold frontal passage is anticipated Saturday night.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Last of the stratus have eroded during the afternoon hours. Mid
and high clouds will continue to spread across the area at times
through the period. Main aviation concern will be if/where fog
will develop tonight. Guidance not much help as no real consensus
or trends noted. Will include VLIFR/LIFR conditions at GRB/ATW/MTW
where winds are lightest in the boundary layer and where skies
will be the clearest. Kept the lower conditions in TEMPO groups
for now, until it becomes more clear it will occur. Once any fog
mixes out Monday morning, VFR conditions will prevail the rest of
the day. Winds will remain light and variable tonight, then turn
to the south on Monday, but generally remain under 15 kts.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Bersch



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 552 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Updated forecast to increase pops over the CONTDVD for later this
evening and tonight as latest HRRR shows better chance of precip
this region. /Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Key Message:

1) Occasional showers/thunderstorms will continue overnight and
through the day on Monday.

Currently, initial wave of mainly light showers moving eastward onto
the plains at mid-afternoon, leaving only some very isolated
activity over the mountains and interior valleys as 3 pm. Next wave
in the series evident in satellite imagery back over UT, with fairly
widespread showers/thunderstorm over wrn CO and ern UT. For tonight,
showers along I-25 and over the plains will die fairly quickly this
evening as air mass on the plains is only weakly unstable, while
isolated thunderstorms remain possible over the mountains where
slightly more unstable air resides. Lull in precip then possible
after sunset until around midnight, before wrn CO/ern UT activity
crosses the Continental Divide and spreads across most of the higher
terrain and interior valleys through early Mon Morning. Suppose a
few sprinkles could reach the I-25 corridor toward sunrise if precip
holds together, though most CAMs keep the majority of any showers
back over the higher terrain. Snow level will continue around 10k-
11k feet, with a few slushy inches over the higher peaks, especially
in the ern San Juans.

On Monday, main upper wave will lie across Colorado during the day,
while rather diffuse surface front sinks south through the plains.
Features should combine for enough upward motion to produce another
day with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms at most
locations, though again instability will be rather limited as CAPE
looks to stay 500 J/JG or less over the region. CAMs highlight areas
south of Highway 50 near/ahead of the surface front for perhaps some
better storm coverage/stronger storms, with lessening chances by
late afternoon toward the Continental Divide behind the short wave.
Max temps Mon afternoon will stay within a few degf over the area,
with warmest readings over the lower Arkansas Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

Key Messages:

1) Precipitation chances remain elevated for most of the region
through this week and weekend, bust especially for the mountains.

2) Large cool down expected to near to below average values through
the week and weekend.

Monday Night... Wet and active weather remains for the start of the
long term period. The GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance hold strong in
agreement about the closed low that has been influencing the region
the past fews days slowly trekking eastward. This means stronger
synoptic lifting and flow aloft will persist over southern Colorado.
Given the better flow aloft, stronger orographic forcing over the
higher terrain will continue overnight. Also as the low moves
eastward, it will push a cold front southward across the region
overnight. With the synoptic support and orographic forcing, along
with moisture still in place, scattered rain and snow showers are
expected to persist along the mountains and mountain valleys. Along
the eastern plains, scattered to numerous rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected as the cold front drops over the area. As
for temperatures, despite the cold front, values will still remain
slightly above average given thick cloud cover encasing southern
Colorado.

Tuesday... The unsettled weather continues into the day Tuesday,
with wet and much cooler conditions expected. The aforementioned low
will be making its final eastward push out of the Colorado region
during Tuesday. While synoptic ascent and flow aloft will decrease
in the wake of the system, they will still be present over the
region. The low will also scour out some of the moisture in place,
but not all of it. Given that modest synoptic support will still be
in place, along with orographic forcing, more numerous to widespread
rain showers and thunderstorms, along with snow showers generally
above 11,000 ft, are expected across the mountains. The eastern
terrain features, such as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton
Mesa regions will experience the greatest coverage of precipitation,
as easterly component surface winds reinforce lifting across those
features. The eastern plains are anticipated to see scattered to
numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with areas further west
experiencing the greatest coverage of precipitation. Looking at
temperatures, starting this day, a noticeable cool down is expected
behind the cold front. Most across southern Colorado will be near to
below average values for time of year.

Wednesday - Sunday... For the rest of the long term period, the
ensemble guidance remain in good agreement about developing a long
wave trough over the eastern US, with embedded short waves in that
flow, and persistent northwesterly flow over the region. This pattern
will keep precipitation chances elevated for much of southern
Colorado, but especially for the mountains. Temperatures will also
remain on the cooler side, as the long wave trough and northwesterly
flow help to keep cooler air in place, with shots of reinforcing
cooler air during the period. Given that, most across southern
Colorado will stay around and below average temperature values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Sun Oct 2 2022

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, vcsh and some briefly gusty
winds until 00z-01z this evening, as convection mixes stronger w-sw
winds to the surface. Overnight, any showers should stay west of the
terminals over the mountains. On Monday, risk of a shower at both
sites after 18z-20z as another weak upper wave moves across the
region. At KALS, still a window for a vcts late this afternoon/early
this evening, as convection over wrn CO moves across the San Luis
Valley. Overnight and Monday, will continue vcsh mention for much of
the period as waves of showers move through area. Prevailing
conditions should stay mainly VFR, though with a MVFR cloud layer
just north and west of the terminal this afternoon, some brief
bkn025 cigs may be possible 00z-06z.&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN