Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Main issue for the overnight will be watching potential for
sprinkles or light showers/thundershowers. Weak lift moves across
the region tonight with low-level jet development as well. Latest
HRRR runs trying to show isolated sprinkles/showers moving across
the CWA overnight. Lower levels of the atmosphere remain rather
dry and ceilings would be fairly high. Current radar shows a few
blips around KPIR and more "organized" isolated activity across
southwest SD that could find its way into the southwest CWA later
tonight. May need to add slight chance POPs for the overnight
hours and will continue to monitor this potential. Otherwise, the
rest of the forecast is on track with little changes needed.
UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
The overall 500mb pattern through the period will feature a
strengthening ridge over the eastern Dakotas as a large low sinks
from northern ID to southeastern ID and western WY.
Although winds will diminish overnight, they will remain breezy over
much of eastern South Dakota. This is in response to our area
remaining between large high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes,
and an area of low pressure nearing from western South Dakota. The
higher elevations of the Sisseton Hills could tap into some of these
winds, as a 35 to 45kt low level jet sets up at 900mb out of the
south to southwest. Closer to the surface ridge, areas west of the
Missouri River will experience lighter winds.
We`ll be monitoring the trends over central South Dakota tonight for
the potential inclusion of small chance pops. While a couple of CAMs
do pick up on the potential for showers over our southwestern
counties, the consensus is for dry weather to continue. One of the
more robust solutions come from the FV3, which even brings light
showers to eastern SD shortly after daybreak Friday as a surge of
warm air shifts north across that area. Given the weakening low
level jet at that time, and not a lot of other models going in that
direction, have opted to keep the forecast dry. Highs Friday will
range from the low to mid 70s along and west of the Sisseton Hills,
to the upper 70s to mid 80s elsewhere. 850mb temperatures will vary
significantly, from around 15C east to closer to 24C over our
southwestern counties. At this point, there looks to be a sizable
cap set up around 800mb, with mixing to around 850mb at most
locations by the end of the day. Showers, and potentially a couple
of thunderstorms, could sneak into our central SD counties Friday
night. This will be while the surface low stretches from south
central SD through western NE/and far eastern CO.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Few chances of precipitation through the long term and continuing
warmer than average temperatures through the weekend before cooling
down a bit by next week. Clusters are in good agreement and
confidence is fairly high with the upper level closed low continuing
to stay fairly stationary over the Northern Rockies on Saturday with
a shortwave ridge over much of the eastern Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. This is below quite the upper ridge stretched across
Canada. Clusters indicate the closed low/trough finally starts to
push east over the Northern Plains on Sunday as the shortwave ridge
pushes east. (Of note, a few of the ensembles/deterministic models
suggest the low opens up within the trough.) By early next week, the
troughing pattern pushes east with another ridge building over the
western United States bringing us back to northwest flow aloft,
ushering in cooler air. The timing of this between the models start
to diverge a bit along with a lower amount of confidence. Clusters 8-
10 day outlook continues this overall ridging pattern (difference on
the amplitude/position) to our west which will continue to put most
of the Northern Plains in a northwest flow aloft. A few shortwaves
noted in GFS with this nw flow by the end of next week.
With the low/trough and its shortwave energy, NBM indicates (~15-
32%) chance of rain, mainly across our western CWA Saturday. Sunday
this rain threat pushes more east and more widespread across the CWA
with chances (15-35%). As the trough moves east, continuing
widespread chances of precipitation (up to 45% chance) possible
Monday-Tuesday before the chances decrease midweek. Temps still
above average for the weekend with winds starting out as
east/southeast then turning southeast Sunday. We will start to see a
more north/northwest flow as the low pushes through and behind it
cooling us down to back around average/below average early next
week. Again, depending on timing of the exiting trough and building
ridge out west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. LLWS will be
an issue overnight for KABR/KATY and have inserted mention of this
into the TAFs.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Midlevel satellite water vapor coupled with the 500mb RAP analysis
shows the remnants of Ian entering the Atlantic off the eastern
Peninsula of Florida today. Meanwhile, the next system is building
across the Pacific Northwest. A weak ridge rests between the upper
lows including the Panhandles. A surface lee trough has developed
today with typical downsloping breezy southwest winds and warm
temperatures into the 80s and 90s.
Not much will change with the pattern tomorrow other than the
weak flow aloft will become more predominantly southwesterly. In
addition, the upper low over the Pacific Northwest will have
transitioned southeast over Idaho. Similarly, another surface lee
low will develop off the Rockies in eastern Colorado with slightly
stronger southwest breezes given the potential for tighter
pressure gradients.
Rutt
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Starting Saturday through early next week, an Omega Block will
set up with a ridge over the central and southern Plains. With
weak steering flow and with an upper level low over the
intermountain west and what could be the remains of T.S. Ian over
the Appalachians, this Omega Block pattern will keep the
Panhandles dry through early next week. As the upper level low
becomes an open wave Tuesday into Wednesday, it will move across
the Plains. This will bring us a chance for some rain, around
20-30% at most, favoring the western Panhandles at this time.
Temperatures will be near average as we start early October.
Meccariello
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
All sites are expected to remain VFR through the period. Winds are
starting to ease back to under 12kts this evening, but should pick
up with winds of 15-20 kts and gusts of 20-30 kts will be possible
during the day.
Beat
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions return to a portion of the
Panhandles today and tomorrow. ERCs are quickly approaching the
80th to 90th percentile across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the 70th
and 80th percentile across the Texas Panhandle. Despite the green
grasses, recent lack of rainfall and continued hot temperatures
are leading to fuels becoming more susceptible for fires. Winds
are expected to become breezy around 15 to 25 mph both today and
tomorrow across the western Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest and
north central Texas Panhandle. In addition, relative humidity
values are dipping into the mid to upper teens across a similar
portion of the area. Red Flag Warning conditions are not quite
there with fuels still transitioning in some places and the
weather pattern not having a strong signal for wildfire outbreaks.
Rutt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 56 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 58 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 57 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 59 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 57 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 55 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 56 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 54 85 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 57 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 53 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 58 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 57 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 56 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 56 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
804 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
.AVIATION...
Sprawling surface high pressure is in place throughout much of
eastern North America with a local maximum invof of southwestern
Ontario and Southeast Michigan. Winds have already become variable
to calm which signals textbook conditions for radiative cooling
overnight. The question comes down to whether or not there will be
fog as there is some potential to favor a heavy dew formation.
Surface dewpoints remain elevated in the lower 40s so not overly
concerned about frost. Given the long night, do think there will be
shot for some shallow ground fog right at daybreak/after 10Z. The
MOS signal is bearish at Metro and the HRRR surface pressure deficit
progs suggests immediately adjacent/shoreline to Lake Erie and Lake
St Clair.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings aob 5kft tonight.
* Low for ceiling 200 ft and/or visibility 1/2 SM towards sunrise
Friday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
DISCUSSION...
Sprawling high pressure centered over Lower Michigan with the center
checking in at 1036 MB this morning (still holding around 1034 MB
this afternoon). 12z DTX showed a good subsidence inversion, with
very dry mid level air as 700 MB dew pt depression came in at 45 C.
Some low level moisture, enhanced by the Great Lakes, remains trapped
underneath the inversion. In fact, low clouds are still hanging
around at press time over Central/Southern sections of the CWA,
holding high temperatures near 60 degrees. Further lowering of
inversion heights should dissipate these clouds, but the 12z NAM is
still indicating high RH (~85 percent) values at the 925 MB level.
With the near surface flow becoming easterly overnight, Lake Erie
will become a player for areas toward the Ohio border, in addition to
Lake Huron for northern areas. Otherwise, favorable radiating night
and still some modest surface moisture (indicated by current dew pts
in the upper 30s to lower 40s) which will likely be conducive for
areas of fog (locally dense) as temperatures reach those values.
There is a weak upper level wave coming out of the Midwest which
could lead to some high clouds, but probably limited on the extent
and not much of a factor.
A stronger upper level wave looks to be slowly tracking through
Western Great Lakes tomorrow and into Lower Michigan Friday night.
Not expecting an impact to sensible weather however, as high degree
of low level static stability will be in place with 850 MB moisture
confined to Mid Atlantic States/southern Ohio. Remnants of Ian/500
MB low progged to reach the Central Appalachians by Saturday, and it
appears the return of a massive/strong high pressure building along
the southern Ontario/Quebec border will be sufficient to keep us dry
through the Weekend into early next week. Fairly tight pressure
gradient will allow for northeast winds over the weekend, peaking in
20-30 mph range, with the afternoon hours being the favored time
frame with the deepest boundary layer mixing.
Medium range models then suggest an amplified trough/strong 500 MB
low sweeping into Eastern Canada for the end of the work week,
delivering a very healthy cold shot, as 850 MB temps progged to
lower to -4 C in the Thursday/Friday time-frame per Euro.
MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions continue through remainder of the work week
as high pressure drifts directly over the central Great Lakes.
Light, largely variable winds shift to the northeast and increase in
strength over the course of Saturday in response to the remnants of
Ian advancing into the Mid-Atlantic states. Tightened local pressure
gradient will support peak gusts up in the 25-30kt range,
particularly over central Lake Huron, late Saturday. Winds gradually
weaken to finish the weekend/start the next week as Ian`s remnants
move back east out over the Atlantic.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1007 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure stretching from Wisconsin to the eastern Great Lakes
early this afternoon. 12Z regional raobs show ample dry air exists
below about 15 kft while satellite-derived total precipitable
water values are running between 50-75% of normal from eastern
Minnesota into Wisconsin. Weak shortwave impulses are pushing
areas of mid and high clouds across the northern Mississippi
Valley with a few radar returns showing up across northern
Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Many of these returns are
likely reaching the ground northwest of Duluth. Forecast concerns
mainly revolve around the chance of light rain over far northern
WI tonight, followed by temps.
Tonight and Friday...The shortwave impulse over northern Minnesota
will track east and send a few showers towards north-central WI
by this evening. Mid-level lapse rates won`t be quite as robust
further east, so it`s uncertain whether showers will have enough
intensity to reach the ground as they fall out of a mid-deck.
Will add a sprinkle mention to the forecast north of Rhinelander.
There will be more in the way of cloud cover tonight, so min temps
should be warm enough to prevent another round of frost. Still
though, patchy frost appears possible north of the Fox Valley
where lows in the mid 30s are expected.
High pressure will have drifted just enough east for light
southerly return flow to take place on Friday. Some of the
warming from this return flow will be offset by cloud cover
associated with the lingering weak shortwave energy aloft.
Similar to tonight, any showers will be falling out of a 10 kft
deck and have a difficult time reaching the ground. Will see how
the showers evolve tonight before adding small precip chances
across the north for Friday. Under partly cloudy skies, temps
should warm into the middle 60s at most locations.
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Forecast concerns: Timing of the next rain chances next week.
Otherwise, focus mainly revolves around temperatures.
Friday night through Saturday night...Weak shortwave impulses will
be traversing the region on Friday night and Saturday. But a
surface ridge axis will be extending south across northeast
Wisconsin during this time frame. Forecast soundings show ample dry
air associated with the surface ridge, particularly below 10 kft.
While there will likely be mid and high clouds overhead at times,
saturation is not low or deep enough for a chance of precip. Very
little change to forecast temperatures, which should be near to
slightly above normal.
Rest of the forecast...High pressure over Canada will build into the
region on Sunday and Monday. 850mb temperatures cool a few degrees
on Sunday behind a dry cold front, so should see highs fall back
into the lower to middle 60s. The next cold front is forecast to
arrive in the Tuesday to Wednesday time period. Temperatures should
rebound ahead of the front somewhat on Tuesday before clouds and a
chance of light rain arrives with the front.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
Favorable aviation weather conditions will continue through
Friday evening as ridging remains centered just southeast of the
area. Middle clouds will stream across the area from time to time
and could produce a few sprinkles in the north, but VFR conditions
are anticipated.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
206 PM MST Thu Sep 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected across parts of southern Arizona through Saturday with
highest chances south and west of Tucson. Chances decrease Sunday
into next week but isolated storms will still be present each
afternoon, especially over the higher elevations. Temperatures
remain near normal for the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
Light shower activity continues to develop early this afternoon
along with a couple of storms on the northern edge of a mid-level
low centered just south of the international border. The cloud
cover from earlier today has inhibited destabilization and latest
RAP mesoanalysis focuses any SBCAPE south of Tucson over Santa
Cruz County. CAMs have picked up on this trend and backed off
quite a bit since this morning regarding convective development
this afternoon. By tomorrow, clearing in the cloud cover should
allow for improved diurnal heating. The mid-level trough will
still be situated to our south which will provide some additional
upper level support. This support combined with instability and
sufficient moisture still in place should lead to more scattered
storm activity on Friday afternoon and evening. Storm chances
remain highest along the border at roughly 50%-60% in closest
proximity to the low then chances decrease as you head northward.
Tucson is currently running a 40%-50% chance for rain so we could
add some additional rainfall onto the monsoon total on the last
official day of the monsoon.
Heading into the weekend, the low continues to meander to our
south as a more pronounced trough settles over the Great Basin to
the north. Scattered showers and storms will continue into
Saturday as a result before the trough to the south weakens and
opens up going into Sunday. The Great Basin trough will also shift
eastward with a ridge building over much of the western U.S.
early next week. Moisture will decrease slightly late in the
weekend through early next week but there will still be enough to
support isolated to scattered storms pretty much each day through
Wednesday. The higher elevations will see the best chances each
day with more isolated activity across the lower elevations.
Temperatures will remain consistently near normal for this time of
year with lows dropping a couple of degrees this weekend into
early next week as moisture decreases slightly.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 30/12z.
SCT/BKN at KTUS and BKN/OVC at KOLS between 6-11k ft agl this
afternoon. Expect this to continue through this evening with SCT
TSRA/SHRA at KOLS and ISO SHRA around KTUS through 30/02z. SFC
winds remain E/SE around 6-11 kts with the occasional gusts around
20 kts also through 20/02z when gusts will subside as speeds drop
to around 8 kts or less overnight. Gusty outflow winds and brief
visibility reductions in heavy rain possible with TS. Another day
of SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected for Thursday after 20z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Saturday, generally from Tucson south and west.
The main threat from the storms besides lightning will be strong
and gusty outflow winds. Storm chances will decrease Sunday into
early next week but isolated activity is still expected each
afternoon. 20-foot winds will remain less than 15 kts each
afternoon.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Guillet
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