Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/29/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The forecast for the overnight hours is in good shape and no big changes needed at this time. Will continue to see breezy/gusty southerly winds through the night, which will keep low temps up into the upper 40s to mid 50s for most areas. An area of mid-level clouds will move east across the CWA overnight as a weak/dry shortwave moves through. There are some weak radar returns to the west under the mid-level clouds, but nothing reaching the ground. HRRR suggests maybe a couple sprinkles or a light shower or two drifting across the northern CWA overnight, but with rather dry low levels in place. Will leave forecast dry for the time being. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Quiet weather expected for the short term with the main concern being gusty winds on Thursday across the eastern/northeastern CWA with ongoing dry conditons. The lowest RH values looks to be across our central CWA ranging from 21%-35%, with the drier conditions across central/south-central SD. There could be some fire concerns with the gustier winds for Thursday, even though we are expecting our minimal RH values to be a little higher. Models are in good agreement with an overall ridging pattern aloft with an embedded shortwave that will push across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains overnight through Thursday, just bringing a few scattered clouds...followed by a shortwave ridge behind. A cutoff low will push onshore off the Pacific overnight and push east with the center of the low over ID/MT by early Friday morning and pretty much staying stationary. NBM surface winds continues out of the south/southeast through early Friday with 850mb winds mainly out of the south/southwest overnight. This will keep our overnight lows warmer than last night so frost/freeze will not be an issue. Warmer air shifts further east Thursday as RAP 850mb temps across our western CWA will range from ~21-23 degrees Celsius with 925mb temps up to ~31 degrees Celsius! This is above average for this time of year. With diurnal heating, this will allow our high temps to reach well in the upper 70s through the mid/upper 80s, with some areas of our sw CWA nearing 90! I added in one part NBM 90 to our high temps for Thursday to show for this. Our eastern CWA, highs will range in the mid/upper 70s. Behind the high, steeper pressure gradients continue to dominate the area. 850mb winds from GFS/ECMWF indicate up to 35-40 kts across the central/eastern CWA by 00Z Thursday and this continues into the overnight hours. The higher winds a this level push over the eastern CWA for Thursday so I blended in some NBM 90 due the gustier winds at the surface we will continue to experience. Gusts would reach up to around 35kts, mainly over the Coteau. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 By 12Z Friday we`ll be looking at the 500mb ridge over the Northern Plains shifting east in response to the large and slow moving low nearing from ID/MT. The exact timing and strength of the low is in question, with at least the operational 12Z run of the GFS being more progressive than most options. It becomes more of an open wave Sunday night as it moves through the Dakotas Monday. Given the variability in forecast models, the low could linger over SD as late as Wednesday. This gives us lower confidence in the pops and wind forecast for Sunday night through at least Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure over southwestern SD at 12Z Friday will nearly stay in place as it weakens and elongates through western NE/KS and far eastern CO. While central SD has at least a slight chance of showers Friday night on, central SD mainly just gets clouds. An inverted V sounding Sunday afternoon could equate to strong winds and dry conditions. The surface low may finally get into eastern SD/western MN Monday night into early Tuesday. Drier air looks to return Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperature wise, we should see slowly moderating highs back to near average conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist through the period as well. LLWS will become a concern overnight into early Thursday morning and have inserted mention of this into the TAFs. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TMT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
940 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region late tonight and Thursday, gradually moving eastward through the weekend. The remnants of Ian will move into the Appalachians by Sunday and Monday followed by high pressure returning to the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 9:30 PM Update... Lake-effect rain showers and clouds will stick around for the next few hours with clouds lingering overnight. No major changes needed with this forecast package. Made minor tweaks to PoPs and temperatures to reflect hi-res guidance and current conditions. 6:30 PM Update... Lake-effect rain showers continue to spread across those along and east of I-77 this evening. Winds across the lake remain northerly to northwesterly with this update which is causing the orientation of these lake-effect showers. The expectation is that the showers will finally dissipate late this evening as high pressure builds southeastward. Low level RH values decrease this evening, cutting off moisture necessary for the lingering showers. Winds over the lake will also shift and become northeasterly as high pressure builds. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s, with higher values near the lakeshore closer to 50 degrees. Previous discussion... Lake-effect showers continued for yet another day today, and current radar shows widespread coverage in a NNW fetch across Lakes Huron and Erie. A strong 1032 mb surface high over the Upper Midwest is trying to build in, but deep mid/upper troughing remains anchored over the eastern Great Lakes causing moist cyclonic flow to hold on across our region. This continued cyclonic flow, lake to 850 mb Delta T`s of 17 to 18 C given 850 mb temps around 2 C, sufficient equilibrium levels of 7 to 8 thousand feet, and good moisture remaining from the surface through 700 mb with minimal shear has allowed these showers to persist. Daytime heating has also resulted in instability type showers popping up over much of northern Ohio and western PA this afternoon. As the evening wears on, conditions will finally start to improve as the high builds farther SE, resulting in a lowering inversion and decreasing boundary layer moisture. The drier air and lowering inversion combined with the short 360 degree fetch will finally dissipate most of the lake- effect showers. However, the boundary layer flow becoming more NE tonight in response to the surface high sliding into lower Michigan will lengthen the fetch a bit, and RAP BUFKIT soundings are slow to scour out the moisture below 800 mb, so feel that isolated showers or a weak band or two will persist from the Islands through areas near and west of the central highlands. Increasing shear besides the shallower moisture and lower inversion will keep this activity light, but extended slight chance PoPs in these areas through the night. It could even fall as drizzle given the dry air above 800 mb. The lake-effect clouds tonight will keep lows from really tanking, so generally expect low/mid 40s across inland areas and upper 40s to low 50s within 15 miles of the lakeshore. For Thursday, the mid/upper trough will lift out with quasi-zonal flow taking over across the northern tier of the U.S. ahead of an upper low meandering across the Intermountain West. This combined with the surface high becoming centered over southern Ontario and Ohio will finally end any remaining lake-effect Thursday morning and allow for mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. Several HREF members still hold onto a few sprinkles downwind of the lake in north central Ohio, but given the described pattern, kept the forecast dry Thursday morning with any PoPs gone after 12Z. Highs Thursday will moderate into the upper 50s/low 60s, but still about 10 degrees below normal for late September. Clear skies and light winds Thursday night will lead to optimal radiational cooling, so lows should easily fall into the upper 30s across inland areas, except low/mid 40s within 15-20 miles of the lake. Interior NW PA has the best potential for frost with mid 30s likely, but it is possible in sheltered valleys of NE Ohio and near the central highlands too. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast period should be relatively quiet with high pressure across the region. The deep trough the plagued the area over the weekend and early this week will be long gone and some modified upper ridge will allow for temperatures to return toward normal. The remnant low of Hurricane Ian should be well southeast and generally not expecting any precipitation at this time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Sunday into Monday, the main long term forecast concern is the remnants of Hurricane Ian and where this low may go. While prior forecast runs suggest this low entering the Ohio Valley, recent guidance suggests that strong Canadian high pressure will build from the north and try to block this system from entering the region. Therefore, have just some slight chance PoPs for now but this may be overdone at this point. High pressure appears to fully build in by Monday and will allow for dry weather for the first couple days of next week. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for the period with the cooler high pressure building into the region. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Mainly VFR with areas of upper end MVFR ceilings this evening. MVFR ceilings mainly occurring at KCLE with brief periods at KYNG/KCAK due to lake-effect showers. Conditions will improve around 02-04Z this evening as rain showers dissipate as drier air enters the region. High pressure and a drier air mass will lead to widespread VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period at all terminals. Winds have begun to shift and become north-northeasterly remaining near or below 12 knots. Winds will remain generally northerly through the end of the TAF period, at 10 knots or less. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... The trough across the region will finally get the boot as high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region for Thursday into Friday. Conditions are already improving this afternoon and waves will finally fall below 4 ft this evening, ending the SCA and Beach Hazards for this event. Northwest flow will continue over the lake through this evening eventually coming around to the northeast for Thursday on the south side of high pressure. East to northeast flow will be favored into Friday as high pressure departs to the east. Do not expect winds to be all that strong with the surface high through Friday and suspect no marine headlines for Thursday or Friday. For Saturday and Sunday, the remnant low of Hurricane Ian reaches the southern Appalachians while strong Canadian high pressure builds from the north. This will set up a favorable pressure gradient for the lake and winds to 20 knots can be expected for portions of the weekend. This flow will be northeast and with the long fetch of the lake, suspect a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the western half of the lake. At this point, it appears that the high pressure to the north will win out and light easterly flow should take over the lake for early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ010>012. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>147. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Iverson SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Sefcovic
National Weather Service Charleston WV
737 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps abundant clouds tonight. High pressure slides southeast over our area, bringing dry weather Thursday thru the end of the week. Unsettled weather this weekend with Ian. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 732 PM Wednesday... Abundant low to mid level clouds and a few light rain showers will continue to advect from the Great Lakes into our area this evening. It is uncertain whether these clouds will dissipate overnight, as the upper level trough axis crosses the area, and the high pressure continues to bring CAA under northerly flow. Winds aloft will stay about 15 to 20 knots overnight. These clouds and winds will likely suppress dense fog formation, and favor low stratus instead. Some of the most protected river valleys may still observe fog during the predawn hours. Another indication that low stratus would develop is the presence of the thermal through at H850 over the northeast mountains. The RAP model shows this thermal through spreading southwest, perhaps developing a low stratus deck across most of WV overnight. Therefore, will increase cloud cover overnight targeting more low stratus than dense fog. As of 235 PM Wednesday... A few showers will develop north of I-64 this afternoon and evening as an upper low swings east overhead. At the same time, a surface ridge builds underneath from the northwest. A large area of low to mid level moisture the Ohio Valley to the Appalachian mountains will continue to advect from the northwest along a cooler air mass. This brings a challenge to the forecast overnight for low clouds and patchy fog. Patchy fog will be limited as low clouds continue to overspread from the north. Quiet cool conditions are expected on Thursday as cool northerly flow ensues behind the exiting low. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Wednesday... Dry conditions to prevail across the area Thursday night through much of Friday. Cloud cover will be on the increase however, as remnants of Ian move into the southeast U.S., and eventually closer to our area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1225 PM Wednesday... Moisture from remnants of Ian will be affecting the area in the first part of the long term period, with rains starting late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This has the potential to be a prolonged period of rainfall across the area, depending on when exactly the models kick the system off to our east. General consensus is for Ian to move into SE coast by late Thursday night, before gradually rotating WNW towards the Appalachian region, where it has the potential to linger into early next week, as an additional upper low drops south into the Ohio Valley region by late Sunday absorbing remnants of low over area. Strengthening southeast flow Saturday into Sunday will result in decent QPF along the higher terrain, along with gusty winds. There is some indication starting in the models of lower QPF occurring in downslope favored regions of the lowlands during this time period, and suspect this trend will continue to be fine tuned in future runs. However, as the low begins to weaken particularly on Sunday, and with upper low dropping south into the area, will see a greater westward expansion of precipitation, and overall lighter winds. Low should finally kick out sometime early/middle of next week, but timing on this remains uncertain. At this time, mountains/southwest VA look to receive the highest qpf amounts, with greater amounts east of our CWA. Period will continue to need to be monitored for potential hydro impacts, mainly due to the duration of rainfall, but impacts remain uncertain at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 736 PM Wednesday... Satellite imagery shows how a low to mid level cloud deck erodes as they move over WV this evening. However, clouds are expected to develop again tonight, as moisture advection continues from the Great Lakes, and an upper level trough continues to provide some forcing into our area overnight tonight. H850 winds will be 15 to 20 knots overnight. These clouds and winds will likely suppress dense fog formation if they materialize. Otherwise, dense fog will be possible along the most protected river valleys. Therefore, coded VFR/IFR ceilings under low stratus at EKN, CKB, BKW, and CRW developing by 08Z tonight. These low clouds will likely last few hours after sunrise before mixing out by mid morning, leading to widespread VFR conditions prevailing on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of low status or fog may vary from forecast. IFR cloud deck timing and location may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible in fog Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KH/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
117 PM MST Wed Sep 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of southern Arizona through Friday. These are expected primarily from Tucson south and west and over the White Mountains. Temperatures slide back a few degrees by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms and showers have developed in the early afternoon for the Catalina Foothills and areas near HWY 79 in Pinal County. 19Z Mesoanalysis depicts better CAPE in Tucson to the northwest than areas south and west of Tucson. Plus, there is decent upper level divergence to help drive thunderstorm development. The latest 18Z HRRR run seems to fair better over the course of the morning as it captured the storm development in Pinal County, but failed to pick out the Tucson storms. Not all bad, the region just needs a little more daytime heating to create better energy for storm development, especially west and south of Tucson. As storms develop, they can last into the early evening and bring locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Tomorrow and through the weekend, a trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue into the intermountain region to bring about a change in weather. What a great way to end the monsoon season for Southeast Arizona. The trough will start to bring temperatures back down to near seasonal normals through the weekend. The PWATs will continue to drop each day, however the International Border and the White Mountains can expect to see daily chances for thunderstorms through the weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/00z. Isolated/scattered SHRA/-TSRA expected for the rest of the afternoon through 29/04Z, mainly Tucson west and south. SHRA/-TSRA returns after 29/20Z south and west of Tucson. SCT clouds around 7-12k ft agl with BKN/OVC 20k ft AGL through the rest of the period. SFC winds E-SE at 8-13 kts through the afternoon with the occasional strong gusts from any TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday, generally from the Tucson south and west and over the Mogollon Rim country. The main threat from the storms besides lightning will be strong and gusty outflow winds. There will still be some SE/E morning and afternoon breezes, but winds lighten by Thursday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at