Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Shallow showers and thundershowers have developed throughout the
first half of the afternoon mainly along/east of Interstate 35.
Activity appears to be partially linked to a weak perturbation
centered over the Rio Grande River in South Texas. Apparent in
afternoon water vapor imagery, the feature is pulling Gulf moisture
back into the area, with RAP and satellite estimates indicating a
plume of 1.5-1.7 inch precipitable water values along and east of
I-35. Activity should taper quickly after sunset with the loss of
surface heating.
Quigley
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
An upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon
centered just west of the Rio Grande. Southerly flow on the eastern
side of the low over our area has allowed for just enough moisture
to return to our eastern counties this afternoon for some isolated
showers. Not much rainfall is expected out of this activity as rain
rates are not expected to be too high. Otherwise, temperatures are
currently in the upper 80s to lower 90s and highs later today should
top out in the lower to middle 90s for the most part. Any rainfall
activity should dissipate by evening with the loss of day time
heating. Some scattered to broken low clouds may be possible late
tonight and therefore with the increase in moisture, lows tonight
should be a bit warmer than previous nights, with temperatures in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The upper low is expected to be near the same place, and some
moisture advection could lead to an isolated shower out west
tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s for
most locations. A weak cold front will approach the area Sunday
night and could lead to a slightly higher coverage of showers and
and maybe a storm out west in the late evening hours. Otherwise,
lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Monday morning, an slow moving upper level trough axis near the
Lower Great Lakes with trailing sfc high pressure digging southward
across the Plains will support the passage of a cold front here in
south-central Texas. The front should exit to the south by midday
Monday, with only a couple isolated showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder possible along and just behind it mainly for the Rio Grande
Plains. A dry airmass will settle in then through the end of the
week. As a result, radiational cooling will help morning low
temperatures get progressively cooler by a degree or two each day,
bottoming out Friday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s. A few low
spots like AUS could even reach the low 50s briefly. It will be the
coolest air any of us have experienced since late May, over 4 months
ago! Diurnal temperature ranges will be relatively large, as highs
are still expected to reach the mid 80s to low 90s Wednesday through
Friday. A return to southerly flow is not likely to occur prior to
Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Isolated -SHRA have developed along and east of I-35 this afternoon.
Radar has shown some activity in and around both the Austin and San
Antonio metros, which has led to continuation of the previously
introduced VCSH group through 01Z Sunday at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Dry
conditions are expected through the overnight hours. Despite poor
signals in numerical guidance, can`t entirely rule out some SCT-BKN
coverage at/near FL020 during the predawn hours at the I-35
aerodromes. Have accounted for this in the 00Z package, though low
confidence has precluded any categorical reductions from VFR. Winds
at/below 10 knots and scattered upper level cloud coverage will
dominate the remainder of the period. A weak cold front and attendant
northerly wind shift will approach the region just beyond the
conclusion of the current forecast window.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 96 73 93 / 0 10 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 96 71 94 / 0 10 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 96 70 96 / 0 10 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 71 96 70 91 / 0 10 10 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 71 93 72 94 / 0 20 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 97 71 93 / 0 0 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 72 95 71 96 / 0 20 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 70 96 71 95 / 0 10 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 96 72 95 / 0 0 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 73 95 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 73 96 74 96 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...29
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...Quigley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
800 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Warmer but still beautiful evening across the midstate with
current temperatures in the 60s/70s. Low level moisture has
increased versus this time yesterday with dewpoints ranging from
the mid 50s on the Plateau to mid 60s near the Tennessee River.
This moisture increase is occurring due to an approaching
shortwave trough axis near the Mississippi River, which has
sparked scattered showers and storms over southern Missouri and
Arkansas. This activity is expected to move southeastward across
the cwa very late this evening into early Sunday morning - mainly
our southwest half where moisture is greater. Although deep layer
shear is quite strong at 50+ knots per the 00Z OHX sounding, there
is little MLCAPE this far east with 500 J/Kg or less in our
western counties per SPC mesoanalysis and little or none
elsewhere. Therefore, storm activity is expected to weaken prior
to moving across Middle Tennessee. Cannot rule out a strong storm
or two due to the strong shear in place, but threat looks minimal
and no severe storms are anticipated. Have adjusted pops in line
with latest HRRR and CONSShort models, with highest precip
chances in our southwest counties. Rest of forecast remains on
track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue across the mid state this
afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s
for most areas. The earlier precipitation has ended with just a few
light showers noted across the far eastern Plateau.
Next primary feature of interest is a cold front that is located
upstream, across the upper midwest. This boundary wont reach our
area until Sunday afternoon. However, a preliminary wave is expected
to develop by early this evening back across the MS valley. This
slug of moisture will move across our area overnight. At this
time, the greatest chances for precip will be for our southwestern
areas where pops will approach the likely category. Further north
and east, lower chances will prevail.
On Sunday, instability levels will increase as the aforementioned
cold front approaches. The back edge of the rain chances will clear
the mid state in the late afternoon hours. Otherwise, rainfall
amounts for tonight and Sunday look like generally three quarters
of an inch southwest down to one quarter inch northeast.
Sunday night, following the fropa, look for dry weather to move in
with the surface high reaching its closest proximity late Monday
night.
For the near term temps, looks like 80s for highs on Sunday ahead of
the front. Then, not as warm on Monday with highs mostly in the
upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
In the extended forecast, all eyes will be on the tropical system
"Ian". Ian is currently a tropical storm but should become a
Hurricane by this Sunday evening as he heads northwestward toward
western Cuba. Right now, Ian is most likely going to reach the Tampa
Florida area Wednesday night. Following this, we see some
strengthening in regard to the Atlantic ridge. This could act to
send the remnants of Ian further westward, with some rainfall
activity occurring in the mid state for next weekend. Latest qpf
projections do show about 1 inch in our southeast, down to just a
tenth of an inch west. Otherwise, the extended period prior to
Friday looks dry.
For the extended temps, broad thermal troughing will prevail toward
the weekend with relatively cool conditions expected. Then, as
moisture from Ian approaches, cool and potentially wet conditions
will prevail into the weekend. High temps for the most part will
be in the 70s. Lows of 45 to 50 are expected early in the
extended. Then a slow warming trend, in regard to lows, is
expected
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
The taf period will start out with VFR. A wave of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move ESE impacting BNA, MQY, and CKV,
mainly 03Z-07Z. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will occur with the heavier
cells. There will be a break in the wx after the wave, then a
cold front will move through on Sunday. A few showers or storms
could form ahead of the front, mainly for CSV where more diurnal
destabilization will occur before the front arrives. Winds will
be generally SSW 7-11KT tonight, then WNW after fropa. Gusty
conditions around 20KT are expected near storms and behind the
front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 65 86 56 79 / 50 30 0 0
Clarksville 63 84 53 77 / 20 10 0 0
Crossville 59 75 48 70 / 20 50 0 0
Columbia 65 86 53 78 / 50 30 0 0
Cookeville 62 79 51 72 / 20 40 0 0
Jamestown 60 76 50 70 / 20 40 0 0
Lawrenceburg 63 84 53 77 / 50 40 0 0
Murfreesboro 64 86 53 78 / 40 40 0 0
Waverly 64 84 53 77 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
943 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
A closer to active pattern than has been seen in quite awhile was
starting to take shape this evening, but the isolated activity in
the Toledo Bend region has since diminished. The more widespread
showers in Arkansas have also begun to dwindle and look to remain
largely north of our CWA, though an isolated sprinkle isn`t
entirely out of the question in our northernmost counties.
All that being said, no major changes to the overnight grids look
necessary as of the 02Z hour. Based on the latest hires model
runs, the RAP13 and HRRR do not indicate organized activity
meriting PoPs in the grids returning until the afternoon hours
tomorrow. In the meantime, temperatures fall on pace to settle in
the upper 60s to lower 70s by daybreak. An influx of drier air in
the coming hours might allow temperatures across our northern
zones to drop another few degrees, but confidence at this time is
not high enough to justify wholesale edits.
/26/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
A very welcomed, and very pleasant change in the pattern is
expected over the course of the short-term, as a cold front begins
to move through the area tomorrow night. Unfortunately, the region
won`t really feel the effects of this cold front until Sunday
night, with above average temperatures expected until then.
Temperatures both today and tonight should feel similar to the
last few days, with lows tonight sneaking back up into the
upper-60s and low-70s. However, highs tomorrow will once again
climb into the mid and upper-90s under SW flow at the surface. The
welcomed swing in the temperatures will begin Sunday night, where
lows look to fall into the low and upper-60s as cold air advection
begins to filter into the region. This cooling trend will continue
well into the long-term, with our first extended taste of fall
possible over the next week.
This frontal passage looks to be relatively dry, with confidence
not the highest that some showers and thunderstorms will develop along
I-20 tomorrow afternoon. While it looks possible, the moisture
this front has to work with isn`t the greatest, and coverage in
this scenario wouldn`t be that widespread.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
The long term portion of the forecast continues to depict very dry
conditions across our entire region through next weekend but the one
difference will be cooler/milder temperatures, more typical for the
end of September into the first week of October.
To start the work week, a deep trough of low pressure, centered
north of the Great Lakes will encompass the entire eastern half of
the country with ridging noted across the Four Corners Region of the
country. This is the upper level pattern shift we have hinted about
earlier this week and it`s the same pattern shift that will allow
for a strong cold front to move through our region tomorrow into
tomorrow night. Thus, we will be contending with a post-frontal
airmass Monday through Wednesday. Through this period, have trended
slightly cooler with overnight low temperatures, closer to MEXMOS
values vs the warmer NBM temps but did not stray too far from NBM
max temps.
By midweek, it does appear that the dominant trough across the
eastern half of the country will begin to retreat north and east
into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys as upper level ridging begins to
slowly expand eastward from the Four Corners Region into the Tx Hill
Country and into the western half of the Southern Plains. It still
appears that there will be enough northwest flow aloft to allow for
a backdoor cold front to move into our region sometime Wed/Wed Night
and this flow could be enhanced by northeasterly flow aloft
associated with the northwest quadrant of Ian as it moves northward
towards the Floria coast. Needless to say, still lots of uncertainty
as to the track of Ian but will continue to advertise a dry forecast
for now and stay close to NBM guidance temps beyond Tue Night
through next weekend as a more mixed atmosphere would support milder
temperatures late next week even with a midweek frontal passage.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
For the 25/00Z TAFs, mostly VFR conditions will prevail across
area airspace for the duration of the period. However, a few
scattered showers may drift southward into our southern Arkansas
airspace this evening. Patchy fog resulting in deterioration to
MVFR vis tomorrow morning will also be possible. Winds will be
from the south overnight, turning around to from the west before
becoming northerly tomorrow at max speeds of 5 to 10 kts.
/26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 72 97 67 88 / 0 30 0 0
MLU 72 97 67 87 / 0 20 0 0
DEQ 67 97 59 88 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 71 96 63 87 / 0 20 0 0
ELD 68 94 60 85 / 0 20 0 0
TYR 71 96 67 89 / 0 20 0 0
GGG 70 96 66 87 / 0 30 0 0
LFK 70 97 70 90 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1218 PM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible this
afternoon across parts of San Bernardino and southern Mohave, but
otherwise dry and above average temperatures expected through the
weekend and into next week. A last gasp of monsoonal moisture is
looking likely for mid week next week, bringing at least isolated
thunderstorm chances back to the forecast for at least the
eastern half of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.
Overall, quiet conditions expected through Monday as building
heights result in warming temperatures across the region. Despite
the above normal temperatures expected, probabilistic Max T values
in the NBM at KLAS are now below 20% through the peak heating
period so no expectation of records being broken with this period
of heat. Further, heat risk values are minor to moderate across
the CWA and only really moderate where lows struggle to fall below
80 degrees, like Death Valley and the CRV. So little impact is
expected from this warmer period.
Outside of heat, 12Z HREF and later runs of the HRRR continues to
produce isolated convection south of I-15 in San Bern and south of
I-40 in Mohave where higher PWAT values exist today. While all
probabilities today are pretty low, there exists an outside shot
for some heavy rainfall over some typically very flashy areas of
Morongo Basin, namely east of Twentynine Palms south of the SR62
corridor. NBM PoPs were quite low in these areas, so bumped them
up with a heavy influence from the 12Z CAMs and now at least
slight chance T exists in the grids for the Mojave Preserve and
Morongo. From a QPF standpoint, confidence is low, but should the
right conditions come together near JTNP, a slow moving heavy
raining thunderstorm could produce some flash flood impacts as the
3hr HREF chances of >1" are greater than 10% for that area through
03Z.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures should begin to subside heating into the mid-week
period due to our ridge axis pushing eastward. This is in response
to a series of disturbances in the Pacific pushing eastward
towards the California coast. As the ridge shifts, the upper level
pattern shifts back into a late season monsoonal situation,
allowing moisture to increase up the CRV and into southern Nevada
and northwest Arizona. In fact, there`s even some signal for a
weak inverted trough Tuesday evening pushing into western Arizona
Wednesday per the 12Z ECWMF. Of note, the EC is quite a bit more
robust with QPF generation than the GEFS/GEM, due to the fact that
it`s much more aggressive in PWAT recovery. But regardless,
meteograms for several sites show a clear return of above average
PWAT values and gradual decline thereafter. NBM currently shows
PoPs returning to Mohave as early as Tuesday and farther west into
southern Nevada and southeast California by Wednesday. PoPs peak
Wednesday and Thursday before receding back to eastern Mohave
Friday and into the weekend. During this last gasp of monsoon,
rain rates shouldn`t be `quite` as heavy as they were back in
July/August, but still heavy enough to cause some isolated flash
flooding impacts, especially in known flashy washes and burn
scars.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Minimal impacts expected today and
tomorrow for Harry Reid. Typical diurnal wind patterns are
expected with sustained winds generally at or below 8 kts. A few
cumulus clouds aoa 10kft possible this afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally favorable flying conditions for all
regional terminals today. Isolated convection is possible over the
Morongo Basin and Mojave Preserve area but not expecting this to
impact the KDAG or KEED terminals. KEED/KIFP could see some minor
northerly wind gusts up to 20 kts at times, but no significant
impacts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...TB3
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter