Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Forecast Highlights:
-Lingering rain showers tonight and cooler with chance for some fog
overnight
-Warmer weekend and dry with breezy winds, especially Sunday
-Dry conditions continue through much of next week, with possible
elevated fire weather concerns
A broad upper level low pressure system continues to push out of the
Dakotas into the Upper Midwest region this afternoon, which can be
seen with plenty of cloud cover over the region per satellite
imagery. This system with an associated frontal boundary brought
periods of light rain across much of Iowa through the day, along
with some isolated lightning over far western Iowa. With the
abundant cloud cover and rain cooled air, temperatures have remained
quite cool into the afternoon with values in the 50s. Temperatures
may increase just a few more degrees for the remainder of the
afternoon with peak heating, though insolation will continue to
remain limited. As another wave of increased vorticity advection
moves across the state allowing for better saturation in the low to
mid levels per model soundings, additional chances for light rain or
drizzle is possible in the late afternoon to evening. This is
expected to come with increased low stratus across Iowa and the
surrounding area for the remainder of the day, which will continue
to bring dreary conditions. HRRR and RAP guidance suggests that dry
conditions should return for Iowa late tonight, though the NAM and
Euro holds lingering low level moisture particularity over far
eastern Iowa into early Saturday morning that may allow for
lingering light rain showers. Overall QPF amounts with these system
will be rather minimal, generally less than a quarter inch which
will not help to improve drought conditions very much if at all. Low
level south to southeasterly flow will remain on the breezy side
through the remainder of the afternoon, especially out west with
gusts around 15 to 20 mph before turning light into the evening.
With temperatures expected to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s,
paired with dewpoints remaining in the 40s to low 50s, areas of
localized patchy to dense fog is possible tonight into early
Saturday. Any fog however looks to be relatively short lived and
will likely dissipate through the later portions of the morning
Saturday.
As the upper level trough and low pressure system departs through
Saturday, largely dry conditions are expected across much of Iowa.
Some model solutions indicate some lingering wrap around cloud cover
impacting the northern to eastern portions of Iowa through Saturday
morning to early afternoon, which may bring in some isolated showers
over the northern and eastern portions of the state. This cloud
cover may put a damper on temperatures as highs could be a few
degrees lower than expected, so will need to keep an eye on trends
and see how this cloud cover evolves through the day. Highs are
overall expected to reach into the low 70s north and in the upper
70s south. The flow pattern is expected to turn more northwesterly
and increase quite substantially this weekend as upper level
ridging increases across the northwestern portion of the CONUS,
which will kick out the lingering low further east and bring in
mainly sunny skies by Sunday. This flow pattern change will bring
in breezy conditions for Iowa, with gusts generally expected
between 15 to 25 mph as mixing increases through the daylight
hours. Sunday looks to see better potential for even stronger
winds as northwesterly flow continues to increase and better
mixing reaches into the midlevels. Gusts look to generally range
between 20 to 35 mph per GFS soundings though the NAM is slightly
lower generally under 30 mph. Given that expected conditions are
favoring the higher gust potential, will need to monitor
conditions closely. Despite abundant sunshine expected Sunday,
stronger northwest winds will allow for a tad cooler highs with
values in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Through much of the next work week, the aforementioned broad area of
upper ridging will slowly slide east into the central portions of
the CONUS. This will lead to mainly dry weather for Iowa as the area
remains in northwesterly flow. Additional breezy days especially
early in the next work week are expected, which paired with expected
low RH values in the 30s may lead to elevated fire weather concerns.
Temperatures will be relatively similar each day with highs in the
60s and quite chilly lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Low stratus and patchy drizzle will continue to impact most of
the area tonight creating MVFR to IFR ceilings at all sites. Fog
is expected to develop in the morning, which could lead to reduced
visibilities, and potentially some LIFR conditions. Fog chances
are greatest north, but all sites may see impacts. As skies clear
tomorrow, winds will pick up and become gusty out of the W NW.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury/Krull
AVIATION...Dodson/Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Have inserted mentions of patchy fog across the far eastern CWA in
the evening update. Latest GOES satellite imagery, as well as RAP
mesoanalyses, indicate a pocket of 1.3"+ precipitable water values
pooled along and just north of the Interstate 10 corridor from
Houston to near La Grange. Latest forecast soundings sampled from
this region depict a narrow band of saturation and attendant fog
formation near daybreak tomorrow morning as surface temps reach their
diurnal minimum. Have thus accounted for this in the period`s
forecast across portions of the Coastal Plains. Any pockets of fog
will quickly mix out following sunrise tomorrow morning.
Quigley
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Have updated the near term weather grids across the far southeastern
CWA given development of isolated thundershowers in the Coastal
Plains over the last 30-45 minutes. This activity is likely a
byproduct of today`s slightly weaker surface high pressure,
convergence along the sea breeze, and perhaps a very weak mid-upper
level perturbation that`s evident in afternoon water vapor imagery
pivoting northward out of southern Texas. Activity should taper after
sunset, giving way to mostly clear skies tonight.
Quigley
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Ridging overhead will gradually weaken through the short term, with
H5 heights falling from 592 dm to 588 dm by 12Z Sunday. Visible
satellite imagery depicts a somewhat denser cu field today across
much of the region, but with ample sunshine and soils continuing to
dry back out we`ll see another warmer than normal afternoon as highs
will top out in the 90s for most locations, with a few spots
sneaking into the triple digits near and east of I-35, potentially
for the final time in 2022.
Saturday, there is a low chance for a couple isolated showers ans
perhaps a rumble of thunder or two across our southern counties, but
most areas will remain dry. With the weakening of the ridge and some
slightly higher dew points in the afternoon, temperatures tomorrow
should be a couple degrees cooler relative to today but still warmer
than seasonal normals. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 60s to
low 70s each of the next two mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
On Sunday an inverted upper level trough will be situated across
northeast Mexico into South Texas, an upper level ridge across
northwest Mexico into the Southwest U.S., and longwave trough
through the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and eastern CONUS. The
ridge will amplify slightly Monday with downstream trough deepening.
This will send a cold front through the area Monday.
Ahead of the front, well above normal high temperatures will
continue, with highs for most areas Sunday and Monday in the mid to
upper 90s. There will be a slight chance of showers ahead of the
front Monday afternoon and early evening across mainly western and
southwestern areas of the CWA. The main impacts behind the front
will be much drier air, with dew points in the 40s and precipitable
water values below 1" Tuesday through Friday. This will lead to cool
mornings but warm afternoons. Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings
are forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Much like the last several days, VFR conditions continue to prevail
across the region. Have maintained continued VFR through the
duration of the 24-36 hour forecast period at all fields, though some
FEW-SCT coverage at/near FL015 is possible near daybreak at the San
Antonio terminals. Reductions to MVFR continue to appear unlikely as
of this forecast cycle. Early morning low cigs will quickly mix out
with surface heating, giving way to SCT fair weather cu between FL060
and FL070 at the I-35 aerodromes tomorrow afternoon. Expect mostly
clear skies through the period at DRT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 97 71 98 / 0 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 70 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 69 94 72 96 / 0 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 72 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 72 96 72 96 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Quigley
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Main forecast concern is potential for near-critical fire weather
this weekend.
Summary: Generally speaking, this forecast is quiet and dry with
fairly pleasant conditions throughout. Saturday remains the
warmest day and with breezy westerly winds there could be some
areas that experience near-critical fire weather conditions. A
push of slightly cooler air will back into the area on Sunday and
drop most areas back into the 70s amidst breezy northerly winds,
esp. in areas N of I-80. Early to middle of next week is about as
quiet and pleasant a forecast can get. Perhaps we`ll transition to
a slightly more active pattern by late next week and next weekend,
but so far, ensembles suggest even this will probably spotty and
light. No signs of significant cold spells within the next two
weeks. In fact, latest CPC 8-14 day outlook places the entire
Plains region in high likelihood for above average temperatures.
Forecast details: No major forecast surprises so far today as the
clouds are clearing out about as expected. In the wake of the
clearing clds, incr mixing is resulting in a modest uptick in SW
winds. It is still going to a couple more hrs before the clearing
line makes it towards HWY 81 corridor, so still expect coolest
aftn temps in these areas - around 70 degrees. Elsewhere, mid 70s
to near 80F expected by late aftn as winds continue to veer and
downsloping helps these areas a bit more. Typically, we need to
monitor for areas of fog where low clouds clear only only slightly
before sunset, which again, would be near HWY 81 corridor.
However, Wrly component of wind should flush enough of the low
level moisture out to avoid anything more than very shallow/low
lying fog near dawn...so not mentioning any in the forecast.
Warmest temperatures of this forecast will come on Saturday owing
to sunny skies and deep mixing of WNW downsloping winds. Have gone
on the warmest side of guidance which gives highs in the low to
mid 80s. Not surprisingly, some of the short term guidance such as
RAP/HRRR have come in with lower Tds for Sat aftn, which seems
quite reasonable given WNW flow, so have trended the forecast in
this direction which gives min RHs 20-25 percent for vast majority
of south central NE near and W of HWY 281. HRRR and EC also show
potential for some wind gusts around 25 MPH mainly for areas
near/N of I-80. So have included some near-critical fire weather
wording in the latest HWO for Sat aftn in these areas. Seems like
these setups can be a bit sneaky towards warmer/drier, so wouldn`t
rule out an hr or two of critical conditions in the Ord area.
Upper pattern will amplify by the end of the weekend as a trough
deepens over the Great Lakes region, resulting in more Nrly flow
locally. This will back some slightly cooler air into the region
for Sun-Mon, which should drop temps back into the 70s - still nice
for this time of year. There really isn`t a whole lot to talk about
early to middle of next week as the sensible weather remains dry
and very pleasant. The earliest hint of perhaps some low end rain
chances doesn`t arrive until late next week at the earliest, but
probably more towards next weekend. With that said, there`s a high
likelihood above average temps will continue through the first
week of Oct. per latest ensemble blends and CPC 8-14 day outlook.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies are expected to
continue throughout the TAF valid period. The wind will be rather
light overnight into Saturday morning, initially out of the
southwest early this evening and then westerly or northwesterly
by late evening into Saturday morning. The wind should then
generally be out of the northwest Saturday afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Tonight seems to be an optimal night for radiational cooling to
occur with clear skies and light winds so opted to nudge down
temperatures a bit more as recent guidance suggested some lower
dew points moving in from the NW. The other change made to the
forecast was to increase winds a bit, especially across SW
Nebraska. Guidance such as the GFS,ADJMAV and CONSMOS were
indicating some breezier winds with gusts up to 25 knots occurring
across SW Nebraska as a stout upper low over the northern Plains
moves SE during the day Saturday with bouts of energy increasing
the wind field during the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
an upper air low over ND giving the CWA a westerly flow aloft.
Current satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly sunny
skies across the CWA with light and variable winds with a weak cold
front moving through northeastern CO and western NE. Models show
this high pressure moving eastward while a large upper air ridge
develops over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface,
clear skies look to continue through the remainder of the day with
dry conditions expected as well. Overnight lows expect to be in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.
For Saturday, forecast guidance shows the western ridge starting to
move eastward with the front part of the ridge making it over the
CWA by the evening turning the flow aloft northwesterly. At the
surface, dry conditions are expected to persist with a surface high
moving eastward from CO into western KS by the evening hours.
Daytime highs for Saturday look to be in the lower to upper 80s
range followed by overnight lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
On Sunday, models show the northwesterly flow continuing throughout
the day with the ridge strengthening over the western CONUS. A cold
front is expected to pass through the CWA during the morning hours
which will cool temperatures a bit compared to the previous days.
Sunday`s high temperatures look to range between the middle 70s and
lower 80s while overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Not much change with the extended forecast this afternoon as an
upper ridge looks to hold strong for majority of next week. There is
disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS on whether or not a few upper
disturbances will move over the Rockies and portions of the High
Plains beginning overnight Tuesday through Friday. In general, the
area is expected to remain dry. A slightly stronger disturbance
currently forecast to travel across the Northwest CONUS and over the
High Plains Friday into next Saturday could bring a few showers and
storms; however, confidence is too low at this time to mention in
the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to increase early in the long term period.
Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s, with
highs forecast to be in the 80s across the area for the remainder of
the week beginning on Wednesday. Overnight lows are forecast to
range in the upper 40s to mid 50s with a weak warming trend during
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 939 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Light and variable winds continue through the night along with VFR
conditons at each site. Winds are anticipated to increase around
17/18Z Saturday with gustier winds possible at KMCK. GFS remains
the strongest with the potential for gusts up to 30 knots if
mixing is fully realized as it brings an 850mb speed max through
SW Nebraska. Other guidance isn`t picking up on that at this time
so will refrain from upping winds more.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
736 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Rain showers will end from west to east overnight. Conditions
then turn dry, warmer and breezier Saturday into Sunday before the
pendulum swings cooler for Monday. Much of next week will remain
seasonably cool and dry with daily highs in the mid to upper 60s,
and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 735 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Back edge of the steadier rain showers was roughly near I-55 this
evening, though radar mosaics continue to show more scattered
activity back into northeast Missouri. Latest HRRR ends the bulk
of the showers in our forecast area shortly after midnight, with
a few lingering a couple more hours near the Indiana border.
Fairly widespread stratus deck across northern Missouri into
southern Missouri, but this is expected to lift more northward and
some clearing in southwest Missouri may reach into west central
Illinois by sunrise. With temperatures cooling off quite a bit
late afternoon as the rain became more widespread, temperatures
tonight should already be close to their lows and will likely
remain fairly steady overnight.
Forecast updates for temperatures and rain trends have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Weekend)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Light rain will continue to blossom over central Illinois into
this evening as a mid-level shortwave trough lifts across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of the main upper trough located over
the Badlands. This mid-level forcing mechanism will work in tandem
with moist isentropic ascent in the lower levels to keep the
showery activity going through late this evening. Showery activity
will end from west to east shortly after Midnight as subsidence
works in behind the departing shortwave and a wedge of dry air
punches in from the west. As ceilings lift and scatter out ahead
of dawn, temperatures will drop to around 50 across west central
Illinois while mid 50s will be likely elsewhere.
A narrow warm sector will advect through central Illinois on
Saturday as the main upper trough opens and pivots across the
Great Lakes region. With plenty of sunshine, appreciable mixing,
and 850-mb temps between 12-14 degC, afternoon highs should easily
warm into the upper 70s amid breezy westerly winds.
Surface winds will begin to veer toward the northwest Saturday
evening as the cold front sweeps through central Illinois. Model
soundings are hinting at very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates
moving into the area by Sunday morning; an indicator of very dry
air aloft. With some models signaling a deep PBL mixing up to 700
mb, conditions will likely be warmer, drier, and breezier than
what the deterministic NBM is currently offering. Thus, we have
hedged toward model blends that favor such output. Temperatures
could once again warm into the upper 70s behind the front as the
effects of compressional warming advect off the high plains and
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. And, while Wind Advisory criteria
doesn`t seem like it`ll be met, frequent gusts between 30-40 mph
are anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
The pattern will then remain dry into next week, though
temperatures will become noticeably cooler as an upper ridge axis
gradually builds across the Rockies and a modified Canadian
surface high sprawls over the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Current NBM guidance points to daily highs in the mid 60s Monday
through Thursday with overnight lows in the mid 40s. The coldest
night of the week appears to come Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the center of high pressure builds into central Wisconsin. Lows
into the upper 30s are a possibility across the northern half of
Illinois that night, perhaps lending the concern for light patchy
frost across sheltered areas.
Predictability concerns increase by the end of next week and will
largely depend on how an impending storm makes its extra-tropical
transition into the mid latitudes. A slight majority of forecast
guidance is pointing toward a return to seasonable temperatures
and increased precip chances by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Rain showers are fairly widespread over central Illinois early
this evening, but have begun to diminish over far western parts of
the state. Diminishment is expected by late evening at the TAF
sites. So far ceilings have largely been around 5000 feet or
greater, though there was a recent brief IFR period at KIJX. Will
need to watch for any potential spreading toward KSPI, though low
level winds out of the southeast should work in the terminal`s
favor. A gradual increase in ceilings is expected after 06Z as a
dry punch begins to work its way into central Illinois. Within
that dry area, expect winds to become southwest to west on
Saturday and a bit gusty in the afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...MJA
SHORT TERM...MJA
LONG TERM...MJA
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
722 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Zonally elongated upper ridging continues to protrude eastward,
allowing for increasing geopotential heights across South Florida.
This will further induce synoptic-scale subsidence, while also
diminishing low/mid-level lapse rates. At the surface, a diffuse
frontal boundary straddles central FL, with NE flow ushering in
drier air across the CWFA. As a result, today will be mostly dry
across the region in terms of overall rainfall coverage. The dry air
can be evidenced in the 12Z MFL sounding from this morning, as PW
measured in at 1.32 inches - around the bottom 10th percentile for
this time of year. The hostile nature of the synoptic environment
will likely limit the vertical extent of showers/storms that are
able to develop, and resultantly, storms tomorrow should be
generally benign relative to typical convection. Overall, storm
coverage should be isolated over the interior near Lake Okeechobee,
while the rest of South Florida remains fairly dry.
The spell of drier weather for today will be rather short-lived; a
low-level confluence axis originating just N of the Bahamas will
allow for moisture to gradually overspread across South Florida.
This will result in a return of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing across the region once again by tomorrow. A
moistening boundary layer can be recognized in RAP forecast
sounding, as LFCs become reduced below 1km and PWI increases to just
above climatological thresholds (1.8 to 2.0 inches). Overall, the
primary threat to monitor for tomorrow will be localized flooding.
Weak to moderate cloud-layer mean winds out of the NNE around 5-10
kt may indicate slow storm motions, which could result ponding of
roadways for east coast metro locations. Additionally, a few strong
(likely sub-severe) wind gusts cannot be ruled out, as instability
(CAPE) as high as 3000 J/kg may support a few isolated strong pulse-
storms.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue across the region; maximum
temperatures today and tomorrow will generally be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Heat indices may approach 105 degrees for isolated
western interior locations this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
At the beginning of the period late Saturday night into Sunday, a
frontal boundary will be stalled in the vicinity of South Florida.
This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, peaking in
the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. As we head into the
early part of next week, all eyes will be on what is now Tropical
Depression Nine. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding
timing and impacts for South Florida, but regardless expect an
increase in rainfall and potential wind impacts as early as Monday
and potentially lasting through Wednesday. Stay tuned over the
coming days as forecast details become more in focus, but take this
weekend to review your hurricane plan and make sure you are prepared.
Beyond the tropical system, drier conditions are expected for the
end of the week, with PoPs each day closer to climatology, having
scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening
each day.
Temperatures will start off warm with high temps in the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Sunday and Monday, before rain/cloud cover holds high
temps into the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures then
return to climatological normals for the end of the week into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Inland SHRA/TSRA continues over Lake Okeechobee region this
evening with relatively dry conditions at all area terminals this
evening. Light E/NE winds will gradually decrease this evening
before becoming light and variable overnight. Increasing SHRA/TSRA
chances overnight along the east coast with sub-VFR conditions
possible. Easterly winds pick up once again after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Moderate flow out of the north/northeast will continue through today
in the wake of front across central Florida. Winds will gradually
shift out of the ENE by tomorrow and into the weekend. Seas will
generally remain around 2 to 4 ft across the local waters; however
seas will likely increase over the Atlantic waters due to a swell
induced by downstream effects of Hurricane Fiona. Wave heights up to
around 5 to 7 ft are possible, particularly for the near/offshore
waters of Palm Beach County. By tomorrow, increasing moisture will
allow an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity, which may be
scattered to numerous in coverage at times. Tropical Depression 9 is
forecast to move towards the NW this weekend, eventually passing
Cuba and intensifying into a hurricane as it approaches the Florida
Straits. Significant mariner impacts are possible for the local
waters by early this upcoming week. Mariners should monitor the
latest forecast updates and information as it becomes available.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022
A moderate risk for rip currents remains in place for the coastal
Beaches of Palm Beach and Broward Counties. By this weekend, a
downstream swell event from Hurricane Fiona will impact the Atlantic
waters. As a result, a high risk for rip currents may be possible
for coastal locations of Palm Beach County starting tomorrow. Early
this upcoming week, Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to approach
the Florida Straits from the south. While uncertain, hazardous beach
conditions may materialize as this system approaches and
intensifies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 79 91 78 90 / 10 60 50 60
West Kendall 75 91 75 90 / 10 60 40 60
Opa-Locka 77 91 77 90 / 20 60 50 60
Homestead 76 89 76 89 / 10 50 40 60
Fort Lauderdale 79 89 79 90 / 30 60 50 60
N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 78 89 / 30 60 50 60
Pembroke Pines 77 89 77 90 / 20 60 50 60
West Palm Beach 77 88 76 89 / 50 60 50 70
Boca Raton 78 90 78 90 / 40 60 50 60
Naples 76 91 75 90 / 30 60 30 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Hadi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
508 PM PDT Fri Sep 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building over the region will bring dry
weather conditions and a gradual warming trend into early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:03 PM PDT Friday...Clear sky conditions
prevail over the region this afternoon with temperatures in the
60s to 70s at the coast and lower 80s inland. Look for additional
warming by a few degrees as the warmest interior locations peak
near 90 deg F this afternoon. Meanwhile, low clouds persist just
off of the coast and the HRRR is indicating we may see some
stratus return to the coast and locally inland overnight.
Building high pressure and warming conditions aloft will persist
through the weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. That said, not expecting a "heat wave"
with interior temperatures generally peaking in the lower 90s and
adequate cooling overnight. One thing to watch over the weekend will
be how the marine layer responds to the high pressure building over
the Great Basin. Do expect a bit more of a marine layer to develop
resulting in more widespread night/morning low clouds near the coast
and potentially into the adjacent coastal valleys. This would keep
temperatures slightly cooler in these areas, yet any clouds that do
develop should give way to mostly sunny and seasonably mild
conditions at the coast each afternoon.
By the middle of next week, a mid/upper level trough is projected to
move into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for weakening of
the ridge aloft resulting in a slight cooling trend into the latter
half of next week. That said, still expecting mid 60s to low 70s
near the coast with mid to upper 80s inland.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 05:05 PM PDT Friday...For the 00Z TAFs. Clear
skies prevail across the area. Winds are light to locally
moderate onshore, but light offshore in the interior of the East
Bay including at KCCR and KLVK. Some overnight stratus development
is anticipated along the coast, but VFR conditions look to
continue at all terminals through the night and on Saturday.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Onshore winds around 15 kt with gusts to a bit over 20 kt
through early evening, then diminishing.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the TAF period. Diminishing onshore winds through early
evening then light winds overnight.
&&
.MARINE...as of 02:03 PM PDT Friday...Moderate northwest winds
continue in the northern outer waters tonight, with lighter winds
nearshore. Winds will diminish across the waters over the weekend,
with a pair of light mid-period and longer period swell moving
through the waters.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: Blier
MARINE: RGass
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
744 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Absolutely spectacular fall evening across Middle Tennessee with
temperatures already in the upper 50s and 60s, and dewpoints way
down in the 30s and 40s. However, changes are underway as shown by
the 00Z OHX sounding with mid level moisture and clouds
increasing. Indeed, regional radars already show some showers
moving towards us from Illinois, and this activity is expected to
reach us late tonight and spread across the area on Saturday
morning. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
late Saturday into Sunday, especially across our southwest
counties per latest HRRR model runs. Have adjusted pops and other
parameters based on latest guidance, but overall changes aren`t
that significant.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
What a difference 48 hours makes. It was just 2 days ago that
Nashville reached 100 degrees on the last full day of summer, and
here we are on the first full day of autumn, and it feels like,
well, autumn, with pleasant temperatures and low humidity. We do
expect to warm up into the 80`s the next 2 afternoons, but low
rain chances will start to work their way in during the weekend
ahead of the next cold frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Along with the potential for scattered showers, a storm or two is
possible Sunday afternoon as the actual cold front comes through
Middle Tennessee. Total QPF`s fall mostly into the range of 1/4" to
1/2", and after Sunday, we don`t know when our next rain chance will
happen, as NBM keeps us dry through day 7. The only possible
aberration might be if what is now TD 9 takes a more westward track
than what the NHC is projecting, which is what the GFS does
currently show. Even then, rain would likely only affect areas east
of Nashville, especially the Cumberland Plateau next Friday night
and Saturday. Meanwhile, the much faster Euro keeps this tropical
system far to our east and out of reach. Otherwise, the dry spell
will continue. Temperatures after Sunday`s fropa will remain below
normal and also remarkably steady through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022
VFR will continue through the next 24 hours. Late tonight through
midday Saturday, a disturbance will bring broken cigs at 10-15kft.
A few sprinkles or light showers will occur, but coverage and
impacts will be very low, so not including in tafs. Light east
winds tonight will become SSW 5-10 kts after 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 59 82 63 84 / 10 20 30 20
Clarksville 58 83 61 83 / 20 30 30 10
Crossville 51 75 58 75 / 10 10 30 30
Columbia 56 84 62 85 / 10 10 40 20
Cookeville 55 77 59 78 / 20 20 30 20
Jamestown 53 75 60 75 / 20 20 30 30
Lawrenceburg 56 82 61 83 / 10 10 30 20
Murfreesboro 56 82 61 84 / 10 20 30 20
Waverly 58 84 61 84 / 10 30 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
112 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday. High pressure will build
across the state beginning Saturday. This will bring a return to
dry conditions, with drier air producing chilly overnights and
warmer afternoons. Based on this morning, we are only adding fog
to the Stanley Basin for tomorrow...but it is certainly possible
patchy fog shows up especially around any water bodies or
localized areas where heavier rain fell recently. Cloud cover will
be minimal, except up closer to the Montana border, and few
afternoon cumulus here and there over the mountains. Keyes
.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
Model ensembles continue to support a ridge of high pressure
developing across the Great Basin. We should see warm, above normal
temperatures Sunday into midweek. Most ensemble members then
breakdown the ridge as a shortwave trough passes through
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Right now, moisture looks limited and
so rain chances are low with that system. There is some indications
that we could have breezy conditions ahead of and with that trough.
Although ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index does not indicate a strong
wind event.
13
&&
.AVIATION... few wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts will persist until
around 02z. Otherwise winds will go light overnight into Saturday
morning. Expect standard upvalley/downvalley winds for KSUN/KDIJ.
Skies look clear, maybe some cirrus passing just north of the
region. No indications of fog development from HRRR or NBM as
atmosphere appears too dry.
13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure rebuilds across central and eastern
Idaho through the weekend. This will bring drier air, producing
some chilly overnights and warm afternoons. We will need to watch
for poor to fair overnight humidity recovery across Zones 427 and
much of the central mountains within thermal belts. We will likely
see some pockets of morning fog across the central mountain
valleys, especially the Stanley Basin and Salmon River system. We
will see the ridge briefly shunted east Monday as a low passes
across the Pacific Northwest, but more likely toward the middle of
next week. The next chance of any precipitation looks to be
Thursday, and it doesn`t look very promising for measurable...let
alone wetting rains at this point. Keyes
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$