Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/24/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Forecast Highlights: -Lingering rain showers tonight and cooler with chance for some fog overnight -Warmer weekend and dry with breezy winds, especially Sunday -Dry conditions continue through much of next week, with possible elevated fire weather concerns A broad upper level low pressure system continues to push out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest region this afternoon, which can be seen with plenty of cloud cover over the region per satellite imagery. This system with an associated frontal boundary brought periods of light rain across much of Iowa through the day, along with some isolated lightning over far western Iowa. With the abundant cloud cover and rain cooled air, temperatures have remained quite cool into the afternoon with values in the 50s. Temperatures may increase just a few more degrees for the remainder of the afternoon with peak heating, though insolation will continue to remain limited. As another wave of increased vorticity advection moves across the state allowing for better saturation in the low to mid levels per model soundings, additional chances for light rain or drizzle is possible in the late afternoon to evening. This is expected to come with increased low stratus across Iowa and the surrounding area for the remainder of the day, which will continue to bring dreary conditions. HRRR and RAP guidance suggests that dry conditions should return for Iowa late tonight, though the NAM and Euro holds lingering low level moisture particularity over far eastern Iowa into early Saturday morning that may allow for lingering light rain showers. Overall QPF amounts with these system will be rather minimal, generally less than a quarter inch which will not help to improve drought conditions very much if at all. Low level south to southeasterly flow will remain on the breezy side through the remainder of the afternoon, especially out west with gusts around 15 to 20 mph before turning light into the evening. With temperatures expected to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s, paired with dewpoints remaining in the 40s to low 50s, areas of localized patchy to dense fog is possible tonight into early Saturday. Any fog however looks to be relatively short lived and will likely dissipate through the later portions of the morning Saturday. As the upper level trough and low pressure system departs through Saturday, largely dry conditions are expected across much of Iowa. Some model solutions indicate some lingering wrap around cloud cover impacting the northern to eastern portions of Iowa through Saturday morning to early afternoon, which may bring in some isolated showers over the northern and eastern portions of the state. This cloud cover may put a damper on temperatures as highs could be a few degrees lower than expected, so will need to keep an eye on trends and see how this cloud cover evolves through the day. Highs are overall expected to reach into the low 70s north and in the upper 70s south. The flow pattern is expected to turn more northwesterly and increase quite substantially this weekend as upper level ridging increases across the northwestern portion of the CONUS, which will kick out the lingering low further east and bring in mainly sunny skies by Sunday. This flow pattern change will bring in breezy conditions for Iowa, with gusts generally expected between 15 to 25 mph as mixing increases through the daylight hours. Sunday looks to see better potential for even stronger winds as northwesterly flow continues to increase and better mixing reaches into the midlevels. Gusts look to generally range between 20 to 35 mph per GFS soundings though the NAM is slightly lower generally under 30 mph. Given that expected conditions are favoring the higher gust potential, will need to monitor conditions closely. Despite abundant sunshine expected Sunday, stronger northwest winds will allow for a tad cooler highs with values in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Through much of the next work week, the aforementioned broad area of upper ridging will slowly slide east into the central portions of the CONUS. This will lead to mainly dry weather for Iowa as the area remains in northwesterly flow. Additional breezy days especially early in the next work week are expected, which paired with expected low RH values in the 30s may lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will be relatively similar each day with highs in the 60s and quite chilly lows in the upper 30s to 40s. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/ Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Low stratus and patchy drizzle will continue to impact most of the area tonight creating MVFR to IFR ceilings at all sites. Fog is expected to develop in the morning, which could lead to reduced visibilities, and potentially some LIFR conditions. Fog chances are greatest north, but all sites may see impacts. As skies clear tomorrow, winds will pick up and become gusty out of the W NW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury/Krull AVIATION...Dodson/Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Have inserted mentions of patchy fog across the far eastern CWA in the evening update. Latest GOES satellite imagery, as well as RAP mesoanalyses, indicate a pocket of 1.3"+ precipitable water values pooled along and just north of the Interstate 10 corridor from Houston to near La Grange. Latest forecast soundings sampled from this region depict a narrow band of saturation and attendant fog formation near daybreak tomorrow morning as surface temps reach their diurnal minimum. Have thus accounted for this in the period`s forecast across portions of the Coastal Plains. Any pockets of fog will quickly mix out following sunrise tomorrow morning. Quigley && .UPDATE... Issued at 505 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Have updated the near term weather grids across the far southeastern CWA given development of isolated thundershowers in the Coastal Plains over the last 30-45 minutes. This activity is likely a byproduct of today`s slightly weaker surface high pressure, convergence along the sea breeze, and perhaps a very weak mid-upper level perturbation that`s evident in afternoon water vapor imagery pivoting northward out of southern Texas. Activity should taper after sunset, giving way to mostly clear skies tonight. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Ridging overhead will gradually weaken through the short term, with H5 heights falling from 592 dm to 588 dm by 12Z Sunday. Visible satellite imagery depicts a somewhat denser cu field today across much of the region, but with ample sunshine and soils continuing to dry back out we`ll see another warmer than normal afternoon as highs will top out in the 90s for most locations, with a few spots sneaking into the triple digits near and east of I-35, potentially for the final time in 2022. Saturday, there is a low chance for a couple isolated showers ans perhaps a rumble of thunder or two across our southern counties, but most areas will remain dry. With the weakening of the ridge and some slightly higher dew points in the afternoon, temperatures tomorrow should be a couple degrees cooler relative to today but still warmer than seasonal normals. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 60s to low 70s each of the next two mornings. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 On Sunday an inverted upper level trough will be situated across northeast Mexico into South Texas, an upper level ridge across northwest Mexico into the Southwest U.S., and longwave trough through the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and eastern CONUS. The ridge will amplify slightly Monday with downstream trough deepening. This will send a cold front through the area Monday. Ahead of the front, well above normal high temperatures will continue, with highs for most areas Sunday and Monday in the mid to upper 90s. There will be a slight chance of showers ahead of the front Monday afternoon and early evening across mainly western and southwestern areas of the CWA. The main impacts behind the front will be much drier air, with dew points in the 40s and precipitable water values below 1" Tuesday through Friday. This will lead to cool mornings but warm afternoons. Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings are forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Much like the last several days, VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region. Have maintained continued VFR through the duration of the 24-36 hour forecast period at all fields, though some FEW-SCT coverage at/near FL015 is possible near daybreak at the San Antonio terminals. Reductions to MVFR continue to appear unlikely as of this forecast cycle. Early morning low cigs will quickly mix out with surface heating, giving way to SCT fair weather cu between FL060 and FL070 at the I-35 aerodromes tomorrow afternoon. Expect mostly clear skies through the period at DRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 97 71 98 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 94 72 96 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 96 72 96 / 0 10 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...KCW Long-Term...76 Aviation...Quigley
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Main forecast concern is potential for near-critical fire weather this weekend. Summary: Generally speaking, this forecast is quiet and dry with fairly pleasant conditions throughout. Saturday remains the warmest day and with breezy westerly winds there could be some areas that experience near-critical fire weather conditions. A push of slightly cooler air will back into the area on Sunday and drop most areas back into the 70s amidst breezy northerly winds, esp. in areas N of I-80. Early to middle of next week is about as quiet and pleasant a forecast can get. Perhaps we`ll transition to a slightly more active pattern by late next week and next weekend, but so far, ensembles suggest even this will probably spotty and light. No signs of significant cold spells within the next two weeks. In fact, latest CPC 8-14 day outlook places the entire Plains region in high likelihood for above average temperatures. Forecast details: No major forecast surprises so far today as the clouds are clearing out about as expected. In the wake of the clearing clds, incr mixing is resulting in a modest uptick in SW winds. It is still going to a couple more hrs before the clearing line makes it towards HWY 81 corridor, so still expect coolest aftn temps in these areas - around 70 degrees. Elsewhere, mid 70s to near 80F expected by late aftn as winds continue to veer and downsloping helps these areas a bit more. Typically, we need to monitor for areas of fog where low clouds clear only only slightly before sunset, which again, would be near HWY 81 corridor. However, Wrly component of wind should flush enough of the low level moisture out to avoid anything more than very shallow/low lying fog near not mentioning any in the forecast. Warmest temperatures of this forecast will come on Saturday owing to sunny skies and deep mixing of WNW downsloping winds. Have gone on the warmest side of guidance which gives highs in the low to mid 80s. Not surprisingly, some of the short term guidance such as RAP/HRRR have come in with lower Tds for Sat aftn, which seems quite reasonable given WNW flow, so have trended the forecast in this direction which gives min RHs 20-25 percent for vast majority of south central NE near and W of HWY 281. HRRR and EC also show potential for some wind gusts around 25 MPH mainly for areas near/N of I-80. So have included some near-critical fire weather wording in the latest HWO for Sat aftn in these areas. Seems like these setups can be a bit sneaky towards warmer/drier, so wouldn`t rule out an hr or two of critical conditions in the Ord area. Upper pattern will amplify by the end of the weekend as a trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, resulting in more Nrly flow locally. This will back some slightly cooler air into the region for Sun-Mon, which should drop temps back into the 70s - still nice for this time of year. There really isn`t a whole lot to talk about early to middle of next week as the sensible weather remains dry and very pleasant. The earliest hint of perhaps some low end rain chances doesn`t arrive until late next week at the earliest, but probably more towards next weekend. With that said, there`s a high likelihood above average temps will continue through the first week of Oct. per latest ensemble blends and CPC 8-14 day outlook. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies are expected to continue throughout the TAF valid period. The wind will be rather light overnight into Saturday morning, initially out of the southwest early this evening and then westerly or northwesterly by late evening into Saturday morning. The wind should then generally be out of the northwest Saturday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Tonight seems to be an optimal night for radiational cooling to occur with clear skies and light winds so opted to nudge down temperatures a bit more as recent guidance suggested some lower dew points moving in from the NW. The other change made to the forecast was to increase winds a bit, especially across SW Nebraska. Guidance such as the GFS,ADJMAV and CONSMOS were indicating some breezier winds with gusts up to 25 knots occurring across SW Nebraska as a stout upper low over the northern Plains moves SE during the day Saturday with bouts of energy increasing the wind field during the day. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows an upper air low over ND giving the CWA a westerly flow aloft. Current satellite imagery and surface observations show mostly sunny skies across the CWA with light and variable winds with a weak cold front moving through northeastern CO and western NE. Models show this high pressure moving eastward while a large upper air ridge develops over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, clear skies look to continue through the remainder of the day with dry conditions expected as well. Overnight lows expect to be in the middle 40s to lower 50s. For Saturday, forecast guidance shows the western ridge starting to move eastward with the front part of the ridge making it over the CWA by the evening turning the flow aloft northwesterly. At the surface, dry conditions are expected to persist with a surface high moving eastward from CO into western KS by the evening hours. Daytime highs for Saturday look to be in the lower to upper 80s range followed by overnight lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s. On Sunday, models show the northwesterly flow continuing throughout the day with the ridge strengthening over the western CONUS. A cold front is expected to pass through the CWA during the morning hours which will cool temperatures a bit compared to the previous days. Sunday`s high temperatures look to range between the middle 70s and lower 80s while overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Not much change with the extended forecast this afternoon as an upper ridge looks to hold strong for majority of next week. There is disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS on whether or not a few upper disturbances will move over the Rockies and portions of the High Plains beginning overnight Tuesday through Friday. In general, the area is expected to remain dry. A slightly stronger disturbance currently forecast to travel across the Northwest CONUS and over the High Plains Friday into next Saturday could bring a few showers and storms; however, confidence is too low at this time to mention in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to increase early in the long term period. Highs on Monday are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s, with highs forecast to be in the 80s across the area for the remainder of the week beginning on Wednesday. Overnight lows are forecast to range in the upper 40s to mid 50s with a weak warming trend during the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 939 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Light and variable winds continue through the night along with VFR conditons at each site. Winds are anticipated to increase around 17/18Z Saturday with gustier winds possible at KMCK. GFS remains the strongest with the potential for gusts up to 30 knots if mixing is fully realized as it brings an 850mb speed max through SW Nebraska. Other guidance isn`t picking up on that at this time so will refrain from upping winds more. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
736 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Rain showers will end from west to east overnight. Conditions then turn dry, warmer and breezier Saturday into Sunday before the pendulum swings cooler for Monday. Much of next week will remain seasonably cool and dry with daily highs in the mid to upper 60s, and overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Back edge of the steadier rain showers was roughly near I-55 this evening, though radar mosaics continue to show more scattered activity back into northeast Missouri. Latest HRRR ends the bulk of the showers in our forecast area shortly after midnight, with a few lingering a couple more hours near the Indiana border. Fairly widespread stratus deck across northern Missouri into southern Missouri, but this is expected to lift more northward and some clearing in southwest Missouri may reach into west central Illinois by sunrise. With temperatures cooling off quite a bit late afternoon as the rain became more widespread, temperatures tonight should already be close to their lows and will likely remain fairly steady overnight. Forecast updates for temperatures and rain trends have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This Weekend) ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Light rain will continue to blossom over central Illinois into this evening as a mid-level shortwave trough lifts across the Mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of the main upper trough located over the Badlands. This mid-level forcing mechanism will work in tandem with moist isentropic ascent in the lower levels to keep the showery activity going through late this evening. Showery activity will end from west to east shortly after Midnight as subsidence works in behind the departing shortwave and a wedge of dry air punches in from the west. As ceilings lift and scatter out ahead of dawn, temperatures will drop to around 50 across west central Illinois while mid 50s will be likely elsewhere. A narrow warm sector will advect through central Illinois on Saturday as the main upper trough opens and pivots across the Great Lakes region. With plenty of sunshine, appreciable mixing, and 850-mb temps between 12-14 degC, afternoon highs should easily warm into the upper 70s amid breezy westerly winds. Surface winds will begin to veer toward the northwest Saturday evening as the cold front sweeps through central Illinois. Model soundings are hinting at very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates moving into the area by Sunday morning; an indicator of very dry air aloft. With some models signaling a deep PBL mixing up to 700 mb, conditions will likely be warmer, drier, and breezier than what the deterministic NBM is currently offering. Thus, we have hedged toward model blends that favor such output. Temperatures could once again warm into the upper 70s behind the front as the effects of compressional warming advect off the high plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. And, while Wind Advisory criteria doesn`t seem like it`ll be met, frequent gusts between 30-40 mph are anticipated. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 The pattern will then remain dry into next week, though temperatures will become noticeably cooler as an upper ridge axis gradually builds across the Rockies and a modified Canadian surface high sprawls over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Current NBM guidance points to daily highs in the mid 60s Monday through Thursday with overnight lows in the mid 40s. The coldest night of the week appears to come Tuesday night into Wednesday as the center of high pressure builds into central Wisconsin. Lows into the upper 30s are a possibility across the northern half of Illinois that night, perhaps lending the concern for light patchy frost across sheltered areas. Predictability concerns increase by the end of next week and will largely depend on how an impending storm makes its extra-tropical transition into the mid latitudes. A slight majority of forecast guidance is pointing toward a return to seasonable temperatures and increased precip chances by the end of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Rain showers are fairly widespread over central Illinois early this evening, but have begun to diminish over far western parts of the state. Diminishment is expected by late evening at the TAF sites. So far ceilings have largely been around 5000 feet or greater, though there was a recent brief IFR period at KIJX. Will need to watch for any potential spreading toward KSPI, though low level winds out of the southeast should work in the terminal`s favor. A gradual increase in ceilings is expected after 06Z as a dry punch begins to work its way into central Illinois. Within that dry area, expect winds to become southwest to west on Saturday and a bit gusty in the afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...MJA SHORT TERM...MJA LONG TERM...MJA AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
722 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Zonally elongated upper ridging continues to protrude eastward, allowing for increasing geopotential heights across South Florida. This will further induce synoptic-scale subsidence, while also diminishing low/mid-level lapse rates. At the surface, a diffuse frontal boundary straddles central FL, with NE flow ushering in drier air across the CWFA. As a result, today will be mostly dry across the region in terms of overall rainfall coverage. The dry air can be evidenced in the 12Z MFL sounding from this morning, as PW measured in at 1.32 inches - around the bottom 10th percentile for this time of year. The hostile nature of the synoptic environment will likely limit the vertical extent of showers/storms that are able to develop, and resultantly, storms tomorrow should be generally benign relative to typical convection. Overall, storm coverage should be isolated over the interior near Lake Okeechobee, while the rest of South Florida remains fairly dry. The spell of drier weather for today will be rather short-lived; a low-level confluence axis originating just N of the Bahamas will allow for moisture to gradually overspread across South Florida. This will result in a return of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across the region once again by tomorrow. A moistening boundary layer can be recognized in RAP forecast sounding, as LFCs become reduced below 1km and PWI increases to just above climatological thresholds (1.8 to 2.0 inches). Overall, the primary threat to monitor for tomorrow will be localized flooding. Weak to moderate cloud-layer mean winds out of the NNE around 5-10 kt may indicate slow storm motions, which could result ponding of roadways for east coast metro locations. Additionally, a few strong (likely sub-severe) wind gusts cannot be ruled out, as instability (CAPE) as high as 3000 J/kg may support a few isolated strong pulse- storms. Warm and muggy conditions will continue across the region; maximum temperatures today and tomorrow will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices may approach 105 degrees for isolated western interior locations this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 At the beginning of the period late Saturday night into Sunday, a frontal boundary will be stalled in the vicinity of South Florida. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, peaking in the afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday. As we head into the early part of next week, all eyes will be on what is now Tropical Depression Nine. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding timing and impacts for South Florida, but regardless expect an increase in rainfall and potential wind impacts as early as Monday and potentially lasting through Wednesday. Stay tuned over the coming days as forecast details become more in focus, but take this weekend to review your hurricane plan and make sure you are prepared. Beyond the tropical system, drier conditions are expected for the end of the week, with PoPs each day closer to climatology, having scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening each day. Temperatures will start off warm with high temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and Monday, before rain/cloud cover holds high temps into the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures then return to climatological normals for the end of the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Inland SHRA/TSRA continues over Lake Okeechobee region this evening with relatively dry conditions at all area terminals this evening. Light E/NE winds will gradually decrease this evening before becoming light and variable overnight. Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances overnight along the east coast with sub-VFR conditions possible. Easterly winds pick up once again after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Moderate flow out of the north/northeast will continue through today in the wake of front across central Florida. Winds will gradually shift out of the ENE by tomorrow and into the weekend. Seas will generally remain around 2 to 4 ft across the local waters; however seas will likely increase over the Atlantic waters due to a swell induced by downstream effects of Hurricane Fiona. Wave heights up to around 5 to 7 ft are possible, particularly for the near/offshore waters of Palm Beach County. By tomorrow, increasing moisture will allow an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity, which may be scattered to numerous in coverage at times. Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to move towards the NW this weekend, eventually passing Cuba and intensifying into a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Straits. Significant mariner impacts are possible for the local waters by early this upcoming week. Mariners should monitor the latest forecast updates and information as it becomes available. && .BEACHES... Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022 A moderate risk for rip currents remains in place for the coastal Beaches of Palm Beach and Broward Counties. By this weekend, a downstream swell event from Hurricane Fiona will impact the Atlantic waters. As a result, a high risk for rip currents may be possible for coastal locations of Palm Beach County starting tomorrow. Early this upcoming week, Tropical Depression 9 is forecast to approach the Florida Straits from the south. While uncertain, hazardous beach conditions may materialize as this system approaches and intensifies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 91 78 90 / 10 60 50 60 West Kendall 75 91 75 90 / 10 60 40 60 Opa-Locka 77 91 77 90 / 20 60 50 60 Homestead 76 89 76 89 / 10 50 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 79 90 / 30 60 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 79 89 78 89 / 30 60 50 60 Pembroke Pines 77 89 77 90 / 20 60 50 60 West Palm Beach 77 88 76 89 / 50 60 50 70 Boca Raton 78 90 78 90 / 40 60 50 60 Naples 76 91 75 90 / 30 60 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...Hadi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
508 PM PDT Fri Sep 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure building over the region will bring dry weather conditions and a gradual warming trend into early next week. && of 02:03 PM PDT Friday...Clear sky conditions prevail over the region this afternoon with temperatures in the 60s to 70s at the coast and lower 80s inland. Look for additional warming by a few degrees as the warmest interior locations peak near 90 deg F this afternoon. Meanwhile, low clouds persist just off of the coast and the HRRR is indicating we may see some stratus return to the coast and locally inland overnight. Building high pressure and warming conditions aloft will persist through the weekend with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. That said, not expecting a "heat wave" with interior temperatures generally peaking in the lower 90s and adequate cooling overnight. One thing to watch over the weekend will be how the marine layer responds to the high pressure building over the Great Basin. Do expect a bit more of a marine layer to develop resulting in more widespread night/morning low clouds near the coast and potentially into the adjacent coastal valleys. This would keep temperatures slightly cooler in these areas, yet any clouds that do develop should give way to mostly sunny and seasonably mild conditions at the coast each afternoon. By the middle of next week, a mid/upper level trough is projected to move into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for weakening of the ridge aloft resulting in a slight cooling trend into the latter half of next week. That said, still expecting mid 60s to low 70s near the coast with mid to upper 80s inland. && of 05:05 PM PDT Friday...For the 00Z TAFs. Clear skies prevail across the area. Winds are light to locally moderate onshore, but light offshore in the interior of the East Bay including at KCCR and KLVK. Some overnight stratus development is anticipated along the coast, but VFR conditions look to continue at all terminals through the night and on Saturday. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Onshore winds around 15 kt with gusts to a bit over 20 kt through early evening, then diminishing. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Diminishing onshore winds through early evening then light winds overnight. && of 02:03 PM PDT Friday...Moderate northwest winds continue in the northern outer waters tonight, with lighter winds nearshore. Winds will diminish across the waters over the weekend, with a pair of light mid-period and longer period swell moving through the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: Blier MARINE: RGass Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
744 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Absolutely spectacular fall evening across Middle Tennessee with temperatures already in the upper 50s and 60s, and dewpoints way down in the 30s and 40s. However, changes are underway as shown by the 00Z OHX sounding with mid level moisture and clouds increasing. Indeed, regional radars already show some showers moving towards us from Illinois, and this activity is expected to reach us late tonight and spread across the area on Saturday morning. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are possible late Saturday into Sunday, especially across our southwest counties per latest HRRR model runs. Have adjusted pops and other parameters based on latest guidance, but overall changes aren`t that significant. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 What a difference 48 hours makes. It was just 2 days ago that Nashville reached 100 degrees on the last full day of summer, and here we are on the first full day of autumn, and it feels like, well, autumn, with pleasant temperatures and low humidity. We do expect to warm up into the 80`s the next 2 afternoons, but low rain chances will start to work their way in during the weekend ahead of the next cold frontal passage. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 Along with the potential for scattered showers, a storm or two is possible Sunday afternoon as the actual cold front comes through Middle Tennessee. Total QPF`s fall mostly into the range of 1/4" to 1/2", and after Sunday, we don`t know when our next rain chance will happen, as NBM keeps us dry through day 7. The only possible aberration might be if what is now TD 9 takes a more westward track than what the NHC is projecting, which is what the GFS does currently show. Even then, rain would likely only affect areas east of Nashville, especially the Cumberland Plateau next Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, the much faster Euro keeps this tropical system far to our east and out of reach. Otherwise, the dry spell will continue. Temperatures after Sunday`s fropa will remain below normal and also remarkably steady through the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022 VFR will continue through the next 24 hours. Late tonight through midday Saturday, a disturbance will bring broken cigs at 10-15kft. A few sprinkles or light showers will occur, but coverage and impacts will be very low, so not including in tafs. Light east winds tonight will become SSW 5-10 kts after 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 82 63 84 / 10 20 30 20 Clarksville 58 83 61 83 / 20 30 30 10 Crossville 51 75 58 75 / 10 10 30 30 Columbia 56 84 62 85 / 10 10 40 20 Cookeville 55 77 59 78 / 20 20 30 20 Jamestown 53 75 60 75 / 20 20 30 30 Lawrenceburg 56 82 61 83 / 10 10 30 20 Murfreesboro 56 82 61 84 / 10 20 30 20 Waverly 58 84 61 84 / 10 30 40 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
112 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday. High pressure will build across the state beginning Saturday. This will bring a return to dry conditions, with drier air producing chilly overnights and warmer afternoons. Based on this morning, we are only adding fog to the Stanley Basin for tomorrow...but it is certainly possible patchy fog shows up especially around any water bodies or localized areas where heavier rain fell recently. Cloud cover will be minimal, except up closer to the Montana border, and few afternoon cumulus here and there over the mountains. Keyes .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Model ensembles continue to support a ridge of high pressure developing across the Great Basin. We should see warm, above normal temperatures Sunday into midweek. Most ensemble members then breakdown the ridge as a shortwave trough passes through Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Right now, moisture looks limited and so rain chances are low with that system. There is some indications that we could have breezy conditions ahead of and with that trough. Although ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index does not indicate a strong wind event. 13 && .AVIATION... few wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts will persist until around 02z. Otherwise winds will go light overnight into Saturday morning. Expect standard upvalley/downvalley winds for KSUN/KDIJ. Skies look clear, maybe some cirrus passing just north of the region. No indications of fog development from HRRR or NBM as atmosphere appears too dry. 13 && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure rebuilds across central and eastern Idaho through the weekend. This will bring drier air, producing some chilly overnights and warm afternoons. We will need to watch for poor to fair overnight humidity recovery across Zones 427 and much of the central mountains within thermal belts. We will likely see some pockets of morning fog across the central mountain valleys, especially the Stanley Basin and Salmon River system. We will see the ridge briefly shunted east Monday as a low passes across the Pacific Northwest, but more likely toward the middle of next week. The next chance of any precipitation looks to be Thursday, and it doesn`t look very promising for measurable...let alone wetting rains at this point. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$