Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/11/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
700 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 At 2 PM, the cold front ran from southeast IA into northwest IL. A broken line of showers extended from SW IA into NE IA. Locally some passing showers were seen in the NW parts of the CWA. Temperatures were in the upper 50s and low 60s in those areas where rain was, while 70s and even some low 80s were seen along and SE of a line from Ottumwa, to Cedar Rapids, to Galena where there was more sunshine. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Tonight, the cold front will continue to move to the SE through northern IL as a low lifts NE up along it. Showers will be common across the area tonight with a slight chance for an isolated rumble of thunder. Adjusted POPs slightly for the onset of rain as the band progresses eastward. Temps will fall into the upper 50s once the rain begins at any one location. Winds behind the front will be from the north and on the gusty side making adding an extra chill. Lows will be in the mid and upper 50s in most areas. Sunday, the upper low will be spinning overhead, which will keep shower chances over the NW half or so of the CWA. Some clearing is expected in the west and southwest CWA. It will remain quite chilly in the NE half of the CWA where temps will struggle to get into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Where clearing is seen, temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be common from SE IA into northern IL through Sunday afternoon. The heaviest rains will be west of the river this evening, along the river overnight, and in the east and NE CWA on Sunday. Rain will continue in the NE into the beginning of the long term period. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Key messages: 1. Cloudy and cool conditions, with lingering rain chances Monday. 2. Dry conditions Tuesday through Friday, with above normal temperatures. Sunday upper level low will be directly overhead, keeping clouds and precipitation chances in the forecast for most areas. The latest model suite shows deformation zone rain wrapping around the closed low mainly impacting areas northeast of a line from Waterloo IA, to the Quad Cities, to Peoria IL. Some thunder will be possible in the overnight hours as 700-500mb theta-e lapse rates go negative, particularly over northwest IL. This is also where the strongest mid level omega signal will reside per the RAP model. These factors combined with PWs around 1 inch in the TROWAL, some heavy rain will be possible that could lead to some localized flash flooding and standing water in low lying areas and ditches in Stephenson, Jo Daviess, and Carroll counties in IL. A slight risk for excessive rainfall was issued by WPC for these areas that had a very wet August. Rain/drizzle should exit the entire CWA by late Monday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well below normal for the day, staying in the 50s and 60s for most of the day making it feel more like Fall outside. There is some concern that the upper low may linger a little longer over the CWA as shown by the latest 16z RAP. If this trend continues, then rain chances will need to be extended further southwest and subsequent cloud trends/high temperatures reevaluated. Currently, the coldest highs in the lower 60s is forecast across northern IL and the warmer readings in the lower 70s across southern IA and northern MO. Monday night-Friday...the upper low will finally push east out the region, with building heights aloft and surface ridging moving into the area. This will result in a prolonged period of dry conditions and temperatures going above normal for the middle of September. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s are forecast with the warmest day expected on Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Conditions will deteriorate tonight as a cold front brings widespread rain and IFR ceilings/MVFR visibilities to the area, which will last into Sunday morning. The rain may become moderate to briefly heavy at times late tonight and be accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Showers or bands of rain are expected to redevelop Sunday afternoon, mainly affecting DBQ and MLI. Otherwise, N to NW winds will increase through the period, gusting around 25 kts later on Sunday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
838 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 With winds becoming light over portions of northeast Colorado, and T/Td spreads tightening to a couple of degrees before 06z Sunday, have opted to bring in patchy fog between now and 06z. The latest HRRR is showing some patchy fog developing with other guidance keeping fog west towards Denver. With have some patchy fog tonight in spots, and monitor should areal coverage of fog increases. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 256 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a westerly flow aloft being underneath the base of an upper level trough. Current satellite imagery and surface obs show mostly overcast skies across the CWA with some lingering light rain showers departing to east out of the CWA. Going into the overnight hours, forecast models show the CWA taking a northwesterly flow aloft as the trough moves eastward with a western ridge moving in behind it. At the surface, precipitation chances look to taper off by the evening hours with the skies beginning to clear up during the overnight hours. Overnight lows look range between the upper 30s and lower 40s. Low confidence that overnight lows hit the frost advisory criteria after midnight, but there may be some low lying areas that could possibly hit the 36 degree mark briefly particularly west of the CO border. On Sunday, model guidance shows the CWA having a north-northwesterly flow throughout the day being under the front part of the upper air ridge with the trough closing off into a low over IL off to the east. At the surface, dry conditions are expected throughout the day though there may be some possible patchy fog in the early morning hours along and west of the CO border. Daytime highs expect to be warmer than Saturday`s being in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows ranging between the middle and upper 40s. For Monday, forecast models show the upper air ridge slowly moving eastward during the day with the CWA staying underneath its influence. At the surface, dry conditions are expected to persist once again. Minimum RH values in portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties look to reach around 15 percent for a few hours, but forecasted winds look to stay well below criteria to support fire weather conditions. The warming trend continues with daytime highs in the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows ranging between a few degrees above and below the 50 degree mark. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Confidence is lowering for precipitation chances during this part of the forecast. Tuesday a short wave ridge will move over the forecast area. Relative humidities continue to be around 15% for the west half of the forecast area. However wind gusts will be too light for a fire weather concern. This will be one of the warmest days of the week. Wednesday an upper level short wave trough moves through. Ensemble data from the GFS and ECMWF show the better chances for precipitation are north of the forecast area. As such, the chances for precipitation will likely continue to lower over the coming days. South winds will become breezy during the afternoon. Current forecast likely has the winds too low. The winds will decline during the evening. Thursday a short wave ridge moves through. During the night another upper level short wave trough moves through. This one will be more shallow than the one on Wednesday. Therefore confidence is quite low for precipitation to occur. Friday the upper level flow will turn to the southwest. This will be one of the warmest days of the week. A short wave trough will move over the High Plains during the evening. This trough looks to be mostly north of the forecast area. Therefore confidence is low for any rain to develop over the forecast area. Saturday the models disagree with whether the ridge over the Southern Plains builds northward over the forecast area, or if another trough moves through over the Rockies toward the forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 2022 High pressure building south over the Tri State region during the forecast period will bring overall VFR conditions with increasing ceilings. Potential for some fog to develop after 06z Sunday, but low confidence for in vicinity, but will need to monitor. Winds for KGLD, north around 10kts, becoming west-northwest by 05z Sunday. By 17z, southwest around 10kts. Winds for KMCK, light/variable through 07z Sunday, the west-northwest around 10kts. By 18z, southwest around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
218 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .Corrected typo in second paragraph... .SYNOPSIS... Atmospheric moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay will be responsible for elevated rain chances this weekend. This will also allow for temperatures to fall to near normal across the region this weekend. Shower and thunderstorm activity may continue in the afternoon Monday and Tuesday in the high Sierra, but drier and cooler conditions should limit this activity Wednesday and afterwards. && .DISCUSSION... Moisture from what was tropical storm Kay has been making it into the forecast area today, leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Afternoon highs today across the valley may range from the mid to upper 80s to upper 90`s depending on cloud cover. A few thunderstorms this afternoon have potential to produce heavy rain the Sierra Nevada. The saving grace today is the storms have decently fast storm motions, which could help limit some of the flash flood potential in the Sierra Nevada. HRRR guidance has been highlighting the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley for some afternoon t-storm activity. Given the clearing the area has seen this morning, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few thunderstorms in the valley or foothills this afternoon, mainly south of Fresno County. Shower and thunderstorm activity returns to the Sierra Nevada tomorrow as the moisture from Kay lingers. We could see a strong storm or two in the Sierra Nevada if adequate surface instability develops tomorrow afternoon. A couple of disturbances passing through the Pacific Northwest next week will help confine the convective activity into the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, highs across the SJ Valley may only reach the mid 80s. Some onshore flow Tuesday night into Wednesday could bring breezy conditions to the wind-prone areas of the forecast area as well. Ensemble guidance is favoring a couple impulses passing over the area by the latter portion of next week, keeping afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range, with mostly dry weather expected across the entire forecast area. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions are likely at BFL this afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail in the San Joaquin Valley through at least the next 24 hours. IFR or lower conditions are likely in and near thunderstorms in the Kern County mountains and desert and Sierra Nevada this afternoon. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 09/09/2022 15:21 EXPIRES: 09/10/2022 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ab
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
828 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather is expected through early next week. Some drier weather will arrive by the middle of the upcoming week, but a few showers and storms will be possible each day, especially near the coast. && .UPDATE... Latest radar trends show the bulk of the rain has now moved off to the north. Seeing a lull in the activity for now, but more showers and isolated thunderstorms are firing off to the west in the SC Midlands. Latest HRRR model runs show this activity propagating eastward, but that logic doesn`t necessarily make sense, as storm motion and shear parameters at several levels show a SSW trend (as has been the case for the last several hours). This means showers and storms would continue to propagate to the NNE. Kept the hourly rain chance forecast to reflect this idea, meaning parts of the SC Pee Dee region may have the occasional shower over the next few hours. 00Z TAF discussion found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tropical airmass in place with PWAT values running about 2.2" keeping unsettled weather in the forecast with likely POPs warranted again on Sunday likely area-wide. In the very near term activity will be focused ahead of small scale mid level low showing up nicely in vis sat moving north out of CHS CWA. And while these storms have contained more lightning than their insolation-challenged forerunners severe weather will be very isolated-generally confined to very weak circulations that may put down a landspout. With the loss of daytime heating coverage should really wane but with such ample moisture in place it`s hard to go with a dry forecast at any given time. Some guidance has fog forecast inland but given the low ceilings that seem likely to develop have not included in forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep layered SW flow between offshore high pressure and inland troughing will keep plenty of moisture in the area through Monday. This combined with embedded impulses in the mid level flow will keep likely POPs around again on Monday. Decent amount of instability expected with dewpoints in the mid 70s so scattered tstms also expected. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. PWATs to come down below 2" into Tuesday as deep layered low evolves NE through the Great Lakes and allows axis of highest moisture to gradually trend offshore. POPs thus come down Tuesday but still 20-40% eastern half of our CWA with best potential near the coast. Highs generally low to mid 80s inland with a drier/more westerly flow and mid to upper 80s eastern part with Sw/S winds during the transitional day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expecting a northerly wind shift across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as main surface boundary moves offshore. This should continue to dry things out overall with just 20 pops shown near the coast where synoptic N/NE flow inland may collide with more of an easterly sea breeze component near coast. Some discrepancies in the guidance with this though and thus some room for changes to the precip forecast for Wed. Highs mostly low to mid 80s although some upper 80s possible around the Cape Fear. Surface pattern later in the week expected to consist of high pressure building in from the Ohio River Valley and then NE states and a front well to our S/SE. Mid/upper pattern will consist of ridging off the SE coast and overall weak troughing inland, with potential upper low developing over SE states into next weekend. This pattern will lead to a prolonged period of (sfc) NE/E winds and temps near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 80s. Best chances for showers will continue to be near the coast, particularly south of Cape Fear per latest ensemble guidance. Part of this is likely related to the fact that GFS continues to develop low pressure along the old front well to our south late next week. Considerable uncertainty in this at this time with plenty of GFS ensemble members not showing it, and ECMWF in general less bullish. For now have shown a slight trend up in precip chances as we head into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly VFR for now, though KILM and KLBT are starting to deal with some low ceiling issues, generally in the MVFR to IFR range. Rain is now north of the area, and expect things to stay dry through most of the night. Increasing confidence that IFR to LIFR ceilings possible at KFLO and KLBT after 06Z tonight. Winds are starting to calm, and fog has been reported at KCPC, which leads me to wonder if that becomes more widespread to the TAF terminals. Low ceilings and fog may persist inland after sunrise Sunday morning. Meanwhile, SHRA possible for the coastal terminals around the same time, as offshore showers may push inland. Rain generally becomes more widespread by Sunday afternoon. Light and variable to calm winds tonight become more SSW late Sunday morning. Extended Outlook...The potential for MVFR CIGs will continue at times Sunday night through Monday along with chances for SHRA and some TSRA. Some drier air may make it to the area during Tuesday into Wednesday with less coverage in convection and better prospects for VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Through Sunday... Weakening frontal boundary wavering south of the area, though marine conditions still be formulated by high pressure off the MidAtlantic coast and the lessening swell energy from Earl. Seas will average 3-4 ft with power peaks noted in spectral plots at both 5 and 10 seconds. SE winds through tonight may turn to southerly if the boundary to our south moves north towards the area. Sunday Night Through Thursday...Sub-SCA level S/SW flow picks up Monday as front nears the area, before trending more westerly into Tuesday morning. Winds become S/SW again for Tuesday afternoon. Speeds mostly at or below 15kts through Tuesday. Perhaps a bigger challenge is the wave forecast for early next week, with WW3 showing renewed pulse of long period swell Monday and Tuesday. Hard to tell if this is actually from Earl or former Tropical Cyclone Danielle, but am actually leaning towards Danielle given its large fetch and 12ft sea radius around September 7-8 and the time that swell would take to arrive locally. In the end it could be a combination of the two and doesen`t really matter with respect to impacts -- with lingering enhanced shoaling issues near inlets and rip current issues for our east facing beaches through early week. Northerly wind shift expected into Wednesday morning as front moves offshore. At this point those winds look less than 15kts but that could change later in the week as high pressure to our north and front to our south pattern evolves and potentially leads to prolonged NE/E winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory for marginal minor thresholds has been issued for the all of the beaches for high tide this evening. Additionally, minor thresholds are expected to be reached along the lower Cape Fear River this evening/tonight. Impacts from the full moon will diminish along the ocean front Sunday, but more- so Monday. However, high tides are expected to be problematic for the lower Cape Fear through Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...IGB MARINE...MBB/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1125 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1125 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2022 Did another quick update to the forecast to finish out the shift. Isolated rain showers were ongoing across portions of Fleming, Rowan, and Elliott counties as the shift winds down. The latest model data, the HRRR in particular, indicate that these showers should move out of the area in an hour or so. Therefore, decided to go ahead and introduce an period of dry weather to the area from roughly 4-10Z tonight, before more rain begins to move in very early Sunday morning. The rest of the forecast was in pretty good shape, with not other changes needed. The most recent obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. The updated zone forecast text product has already been issued. UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2022 Did a quick update to remove thunder from the forecast for the rest of this evening. Scattered rain showers were ongoing at update time, but it looks like these may end up moving out of the area a bit earlier then previously forecast, so the next update may need to address this. The hazardous weather outlook was also updated to remove mention of thunder for tonight. The latest obs were also ingested into the forecast grids to establish new trends. The updated zones have already been sent out and the grids updates have been published and sent to NDFD and the remote web farms. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2022 19Z sfc analysis shows low pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This is maintaining a high amount of moisture over the area but near zero instability really limiting the thunder potential so far this afternoon. As such, the rainfall thus far has been on the light side, too. Due to the pcpn and plenty of clouds the temperatures also struggled to rise with readings topping out in the low to mid 70s most places. Meanwhile, dewpoints have made it to the mid and upper 60s, amid mostly light southeast winds - contributing a downslope component and hindering the showers. The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the southern trough continuing to open up and becoming absorbed into a larger trough coming in from the northwest. As a part of this process, bits of mid level energy will move through Kentucky, though the main height falls will occur Sunday night as the now closed off 5h low/trough drops into the Ohio Valley. Given the small model spread and good clustering favored the NBM solution with mainly just some PoP details contributed from the CAMs. Sensible weather will feature a small chance of thunder with the mainly light showers into the first part of the evening - generally along the Tennessee and Virginia border before this first wave of deeper moisture moves off to the northeast. Look for mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog tonight along with fairly uniform low temperatures and mild/muggy conditions. A better chance of storms will be seen on Sunday with that front`s approach and better upper level support. Look for enough instability to build by afternoon for such development. The storm motions are expected to be progressive enough to preclude much training and certainly limit the excessive rain threat. The action will continue into Sunday night with showers and few thunderstorms likely still around as the front squeezes into the state. This will finally bring a change of air masses by dawn to much of the JKL CWA with cooler and drier conditions on tap. Did not deviate much from the NBM temperatures and mainly just added some CAMs details to the NBM PoPs through the period. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2022 Key Points: 1. Lingering showers depart to the east on Monday. 2. No threat for measurable rainfall through the remainder of the week (isolated sprinkle possible on Tuesday). 3. Below normal temperatures expected on Monday and Tuesday, then warming trend back to above normal later in the week. Analysis and Discussion: The 10/12z model suite is in good synoptic agreement through nearly all of the long-term (there is noticeable deterioration on Friday and Saturday but sensible impacts most likely negligible). At the beginning of the period, an ~560 dam cutoff low spins just SSW of Chicago. This is nearly over the system’s ~1007 mb surface low. From this low center, a fairly strong early autumn cold front sweeps out an arc near Detroit to Columbus to Pikeville to Knoxville and then trails SW to along the Texas Gulf Coast. To our west, a 500 H ridge extends northward along the Rockies from an ~591 dam high centered over Sonora/Chihuahua. Ridge-induced subsidence supports a surface high pressure ridge extending from the the Southern Plains to the Western Great Lakes. The front and any lingering showers should exit far eastern Kentucky by midday/early afternoon on Monday. A dry slot follows closely behind the front on Monday, evidenced by PWATs dropping to near/below 0.75 inch; but, the NWP are not in great agreement as to how quickly the low clouds clear out. The NAM12 hangs onto 80%+ RH in the 925-850 mb layer for most or all of the day while the ECMWF and GFS are quicker to dry things out. There is also some uncertainty as to the magnitude of any upslope component in the cyclonic flow ahead of the cutoff low. A more southerly flow direction could actually favor a bit of downslope drying off of Tennessee’s Cumberland Plateau while a more westerly direction would favor at least a little upslope enhancement. Either way, moderate CAA of 8 to 10 C 850 mb temperatures just upstream will steepen low-level lapse rates and lead to one of the breezier and cooler days of recent memory. Momentum transfer from BUFKIT would suggest wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph for much of the day, with the higher gusts if/where skies try to clear and north of I-64. Afternoon temperatures only peak in the lower 70s at many locations. A lingering pressure gradient and patchy cloud cover should keep temperatures from dropping off too much Monday night. Still expect some of the deeper valleys to decouple and likely yield some patchy light fog. Low temperatures between 50 and 55 are forecast. The upper level high drifts eastward to Lake Erie/Southern Ontario by 12z Tuesday, keeping a cool cyclonic flow over the Ohio Valley for another day. Any clear skies likely give way to more cloudiness as the low-level flow veers more westerly, allowing wrap-around moisture to move into our region. Given diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates, expect any periods of sunshine on Tuesday to fuel quick strato-cu/cu formation (capped by a subsiding mid-level stable layer) and the mix down of a blustery breeze. A stray sprinkle cannot be ruled out, but no measurable rainfall is forecast. With 850mb temperatures in the 9 to 12 C range, expect Tuesday’s high temperatures to reach the lower to middle 70s. The closed upper low accelerates northeastward over the St. Lawrence Valley by Tuesday night as it is captured by a northern stream trough. In its place, ridging aloft and at the surface builds eastward across the Ohio Valley. If skies clear out, widespread valley fog formation is likely Tuesday night. However, some of the guidance does hint that some low-level moisture may linger as the flow turns northerly, in which case a low stratus or low stratus/valley fog combo would be favored. Comfortably cool lower to middle 50s can be expected again Tuesday night. For Wednesday onward, the upper level high will continue to expand northeastward behind the departing low but 500mb heights subside a few decameters. A weak trough does form over the eastern Gulf/southeast Atlantic coasts toward the end of the period but all of the guidance, excepting the GFS, keeps notable precipitation chances east of the Appalachians. Through the remainder of the long term, surface high pressure will pass from the Ohio Valley to along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Saturday. This should keep mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights (except for the typical valley fog) in the forecast. Low-level winds gradually veer more easterly by Thursday, and southerly by Friday and Saturday. The warmer southerly flow will send 850 mb temperatures back into the 15 to 17C range, supporting highs in the 82-86 degree range by Saturday. Nighttime lows will moderate back to within a few degrees of 60 by Friday night/Saturday morning. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2022 The TAF sites will experiencing mainly MVFR conditions through out the period, as persistent low level cloud remains in place. Some fog may also form due to the rain, which could also reduce VSBYs a bit at times. The next wave of more widespread rain will likely move back into the TAF sites after 16Z on Sunday, and could lead to MVFR conditions at times. Some isolated instances of IFR could also occur due to rain, fog, and low clouds, but the likelihood is low enough to not be worth including in the TAFs at this time. Winds should be generally light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AR SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
838 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some higher clouds across portions of the coast and West Side. Peeking through the clouds, the Mountain fire is showing burning strong once again after a spot fire broke the containment lines prompting additional evacuations. Please see the EVIMFR for more details. Otherwise, the critical fire weather conditions will be slow to subside this evening, and have allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire at 8 PM. Regarding heat headlines, temperatures are still plenty warm right now, so will likely go ahead and allow the heat advisory expire at 11 PM tonight instead of canceling it early. Lastly, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has extended the air quality advisory for all of our counties except for Coos County which expires today. Please see the AQAMFR for more details. As far as the forecast is concerned, we are seeing a desperately needed influx of moisture; and the pattern will indeed be trending cooler over the next couple of days. Please see the previous discussion below for more details on the forecast. -Schaaf && .AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs...LIFR coastal stratus will surge northward along the coast tonight and up to a few miles inland. LIFR/IFR coastal conditions may persist through much of Sunday. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere overnight into Sunday, although light smoke will occur. However, smoke could reduce visibility to MVFR or even IFR in northern Klamath County and eastern Douglas County through at least Sunday morning. Sandler && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Saturday 10 September, 2022...Low pressure offshore continues to move north away from the waters overnight. Advisory strength winds will shift north of Cape Blanco and then out of the region by Sunday morning. Light winds and light but mixed seas are expected Sunday through Wednesday with northwest and southwest swells. Sandler && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022/ SYNOPSIS... Low pressure west of the coast with high pressure over the Pacific Northwest will result in another day of record breaking heat across inland areas this afternoon. Meanwhile, exceptionally dry easterly winds are shifting to southerly this afternoon, and westerly winds will build across the area this afternoon into this evening. This wind shift, along with increasing cloud cover and moisture levels, will lead to moderating conditions tonight through Sunday. Smoke from area wildfires, hazardous in some areas, will lift and thin across the west side, but thicken from Crater Lake northward and across all but far southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties tonight into Sunday morning. Finally, increasing moisture and cloud cover from the remnants of Hurricane Kay will bring a possibility of showers Sunday into Monday across much of the forecast area. Areas along and east of Cascades will have a possibility of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION... Primary adjustments were to add some shower chances to the forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning across inland areas. Numerical models, particularly the HRRR Smoke Model, are suggesting some showers with measurable rain moving through in that time period. The operational 12Z ECMWF also supports this adjustment. Of course, higher RH and any rain will be welcome, though limited, relief from very dry conditions that are well entrenched across the forecast area. Otherwise, southeasterly winds in the Ashland area have been slow to diminish this afternoon, with hot and dry conditions continuing there. They`re expected to trend downward shortly before turning northwest this evening. Main areas of concern this afternoon into the early evening are the valleys of Josephine, Jackson, and Siskiyou County where wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range are likely. Smoke is still expected to lift and thin along and near the surface today, except downwind of active wildfires, particularly the Barnes Fire in northern California. Also, Douglas County is generally seeing continued poor air quality as smoke to the west moves through. In Klamath and Lake counties air quality is likely to deteriorate this evening into Sunday morning as smoke converges there from area wildfires, especially the Cedar Creek Fire. Southern portions of those counties may be spared, however, as southerly winds hold it off. Remnants of Hurricane Kay will move northward along the coast this afternoon and spread over inland areas tonight into Sunday. The main effect will be increased cloud cover mixed with smoke from California wildfires, decreasing winds, and an upward trend in humidity. Coastal and near coastal areas will see some showers and/or light rain/drizzle and inland areas could catch some showers. This possibility will expand inland Sunday afternoon, night, and into Monday. Models have trended upward with the possibility of some of these showers resulting in light precipitation amounts, generally under a tenth of an inch. ~BTL FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 10 September 2022... A dry air mass remains in place into this evening. Relative humidities early this morning were pretty low across the board, event for locations near and at the coast. The latest surface analysis shows the thermal trough along the Oregon coast. This is expected to move inland later this afternoon, at which time, winds will diminish near and at the ridges. However, they will change direction pick up again once the thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades late this afternoon. Also breezy to gusty afternoon winds are expected to develop in valleys west of the Cascades and into portions of Northern California. The winds have not yet cranked up at Weed, but they will and the high resolution models continue to show strong, winds developing in the Shasta Valley (15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph) and in the Rogue Valley near Ashland (SE 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the late afternoon). Breezy to gusty winds combined with another day of min RH in the single digit to low teens are likely to bring critical conditions to inland areas from the Cascades west and portions of northern California into this evening, and the Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. Also of concern, a Haines index of 6 due to hot, dry and unstable conditions is forecast for most locations away from the coast today. These conditions will result in a significant potential for large fire growth on existing fires, including the Rum Creek Fire. Sunday into Monday, monsoonal moisture and moisture from a weakening tropical system will start to feed into the area. We`ll start to see the moisture move into the area Sunday. Some of the CAM`s (convective allowing models) show isolated showers breaking out mainly west of the Cascades Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with the ridges probably having the best chance of seeing isolated showers. Since the lower layers are still on the dry side, not much if any precip will make it into the valleys. Isolated showers here and there by Sunday night. Monday could end up being a little more unstable, leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon from about the Cascades east. The models and ensemble members show a general troughiness remains over the area into the end of next week. This will result in lower daytime temperatures and higher relative humidity. Precipitation chances in this time period are expected to be low. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024-026. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>082. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue into early next week as moisture surges ahead of a slow moving frontal system. The cold front is expected to move through the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday with high pressure building in mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 1025 PM Sat...Main feature of note this evening is a slow moving cluster of thunderstorms intruding on the western extent of the FA. It has little lightning activity and is moving into a region of lower instability per RAP analysis, but has been putting down some respectable rainfall (up to 1 to 2 inches per hour, as suggested by MRMS). Expect this activity to falter as it continues to move into increasingly stable air downstream, but locally heavy rainfall will be a risk for Greene, Lenoir and Duplin counties through midnight. Prev disc...The area remains sandwiched between upper ridging off the coast, an upper low centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley, and a robust upper trough digging into the Midwest. This is allowing abundant Gulf and western Atlantic moisture to feed northward into the area bringing numerous showers aided by weak mid-level shortwave energy and a surface trough bisecting the area. Modest instability resides across southern sections, south of the Pamlico River, but shear remains weak and have yet to see any lightning today, however cannot rule out an isolated tstm this evening. There is some weak helicity across southern sections and have seen some rotation in showers offshore where instability is maximized and the potential for waterspouts will continue into the evening. Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a concern with PW values around 2.25" and we have already seen impressive rainfall amounts across portions of Carteret County from Morehead City eastward to the southern Core Banks where radar estimated precip is around 2-5" today. Clouds and precip will limit cooling overnight with lows expected in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 430 PM Saturday...The upper low over the lower Mississippi River Valley will open into a wave tonight with its assoc vort max lifting across the area Sunday. Abundant moisture will continue to feed into the area with high pressure sliding further offshore allowing low level flow to become southerly. This may bring greater instability and a better coverage of thunderstorms during the afternoon, depending on the extent clouds and precip which may prevent the instability to become realized. 0-6 km shear is a bit higher as well, around 25 kt, which may also aid in developing a few stronger storms. The primary threat however continues to the heavy rain and localized flooding with PW values remaining around 2.25". High Sunday expected to be a few degrees warmer but still topping out in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as moisture spreads northward in advance of a slow moving cold front. The cold front is forecast to cross the area Tue night followed by drier weather Wed-Fri though a few coastal showers can`t be ruled out mid through late next week. Temperatures are forecast to be at or above normal through the period despite the cold frontal passage. Sunday night through Tuesday night...The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will be tapped ahead of a slow moving cold front. Scattered to numerous showers/possible thunderstorms are expected as deep moisture advection occurs in response to the upper level trough moving closer. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall Sunday into Mon where widespread 1-2" amounts are expected. Locally much higher amounts are possible as PW values remain AOA 2". The cold front should push through Tue night. Wednesday through Friday...Drier weather is expected across most of the area as high pressure builds in behind the front. Deeper moisture, however, will be lurking just southeast of the area which will keep a slight chance for a few coastal showers in the forecast. Will have to watch to see if this moisture gets drawn inland late week which would increase the chance for rain. Temperatures through this period will remain right around average with highs in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 750 PM Sat...Flight conditions are beginning to further deteriorate faster than expected with all but EWN now in lowering IFR. Leaned heavily on LAMP guidance, which has been tracking along relatively well with this event, favoring persistent IFR conditions (with periods of LIFR late) throughout the overnight period, then lifting to MVFR after sunrise with increasing mixing. Shower activity will be relatively minimized overnight into the morning, before another round of showers and storms develops around 18z for most terminals. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Scattered to numerous at times, showers and possible thunderstorms will occur through Tue ahead of a slow moving cold front and produce occasional sub VFR conditions. Drier air and return to pred VFR conditions is expected Tue night and Wed as high pressure builds in behind the front. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 5 PM Saturday...E to SE winds around 15 kt or less will veer to southerly Sunday. Long period swells from distant tropical systems continues impact the coastal waters but buoys are reporting seas around 4-6 ft, which are a foot or two below forecast models and have adjusted wave heights downward slightly. As such, have dropped the SCA for the waters south of Cape Lookout where the buoy 30 mi SE of New River Inlet has been around 4-5 ft this afternoon. However, long periods swells will continue to impact the waters with SCA still expected to continue into Tuesday north of Ocracoke Inlet. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Though winds are expected to be 10-15 kt through the period, hurricane swell will be slow to dissipate with elevated seas AOA 6 ft expected into Tue, especially north of Cape Lookout. SE to S flow Sunday will veer to the SW Sunday night and continue into Tue night ahead of the cold front. Winds are forecast to shift to the N around 10 kt Tue night and NE Wed. 3-5 ft seas Tue night subside to 2-4 ft Wed. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/MS SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME/CB AVIATION...JME/MS MARINE...JME/SK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
159 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Smoke will continue to impact parts of the area through early next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will ease back closer to normal levels for mid September. Afternoon breezes and drier conditions will return around the middle of next week as a trough develops along the west coast. && .DISCUSSION... * Our area continues to be on the northern edge of the remnants of Kay which is forecast to meander off the southern coast of CA this weekend before enough westerlies arrive to pick it up early next week. Storms will be confined mainly to Mono-Mineral County for today and then advect northward as the ridge centered over NV moves east Sun-Mon in advance of a Pacific trough. Storm coverage will spread to most areas Sun-Mon then decrease mid week as increasing southwest to west flow returns. Temperatures remain hot today, but will be heading toward more normal levels for the upcoming week. * Thunderstorms today mainly Mono-Mineral Counties as the outer bands of the remnants of Kay continue to work across southern NV into central CA. While a few cells have formed near Mammoth Lakes early this afternoon, we are watching the ones developing over northern Nye County. Given the strong daytime heating and dry sublayers in west central NV, many of the CAMs want to push this convective feature west into Mineral County this afternoon and then collapse it late afternoon/early this evening, pushing strong outflow northward into the Basin and Range with gusts to 40+ mph and blowing dust a real possibility. Very heavy rain will accompany the storms themselves and be capable of urban street flooding and possible flash flooding in steep terrain over Mono-Mineral Counties as PWATs are close to 0.75" and training of cells is a possibility given the banding nature. * Thunderstorms will spread northward to all areas Sunday and Monday as the flow aloft shifts to the south-southeast. The one caveat will be cloud cover which could impede us from realizing our maximum instability. However, there should be enough instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms both days with a few stronger cells capable of very heavy rainfall. As the trough moves closer Tuesday, upper level winds begin to increase so there may be marginally better organization of storms as they shift east off the Sierra. * Smoke will continue to pour into the Tahoe Basin and far western NV for at least the next few days as long as the Mosquito Fire continues to burn active. The HRRR smoke model shows rapidly deteriorating conditions this evening and again late Sunday. The HRRR is even indicating some pretty poor conditions developing over northeast CA/northwest NV from smoke coming south from wildfires in the Cascades of Oregon. So overall, not a good period to be outdoors. * Long range shows westerlies aloft increasing as a long wave trough sets up over the west coast. This will bring a gradual decrease in moisture and thunderstorms mid week and more typical temperatures for mid September. The afternoon west-southwest winds also increase with breezy conditions. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms were maintained Tue-Wed, especially from the eastern Sierra of Mono to the Basin and Range as the focus for storms shifts east into the eastern Great Basin. Hohmann && .AVIATION... * For the next couple of days (and it could be longer if fire activity on the Mosquito Fire remains robust), high resolution models continue to indicate smoke pushing over into the Tahoe Basin and western NV late each afternoon/evening bringing periods of MVFR (locally IFR conditions) to KTRK-KTVL-KRNO- KCXP-KMEV. Expect deteriorating conditions in the evening with smoke not mixing out a bit until late each morning through Monday. Some guidance is also indicating smoke advecting into northwest NV late Sunday from wildfires in Oregon with deteriorating visibility along routes north of Reno-Tahoe. Slantwise visibility could be significantly reduced from haze across much of western NV as a result of all the smoke pouring into the region. * Thunderstorms will be confined mainly to areas south of Hwy 50 today, a few strong cells will be capable of very heavy rain and gusty outflow winds to 30-35 kts this afternoon/evening. While storms will likely stay south in Mono-Mineral County today, there are indications that outflow will develop out of the storms over Mineral County around 22-24Z and push north across western NV, impacting KNFL and possibly areas as far north as I-80 from Fernley to Lovelock. Thunderstorms spread northward across much of the area Sunday and Monday. Hohmann && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
819 PM EDT Sat Sep 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the northeast United States was wedged down the east side of the Appalachians tonight and will move off the East coast Sunday. Deep moisture around the high, will lift over a stalled front along the Gulf Coast and into the Mid Atlantic region resulting in widespread rain. A cold front tracking from west to east across the region on Monday will prolong the chance of rainfall, then dry weather is expected behind the front Tuesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... ...Dreary overnight with rain sticking around... Rain continues to push through NC/VA/WV this evening, with most of the precipitation very light and only dropping a tenth of an inch or less an hour. Parts of the VA and NC piedmonts are seeing slightly heavier rainfall, maybe a quarter inch an hour, but the rain is still relatively light. Storm total amounts where the heavier rain fell earlier along the southern Blue Ridge and the NC mountains is between a half inch and about an inch and a quarter. These rates are well below what would be needed to warrant a Flood Watch. Overnight most of the rainfall will stay over the piedmont, with occasional rain, drizzle, and fog elsewhere along with plenty of stratus. Adjusted PoPs for this update to favor east of the Blue Ridge overnight and lower PoPs to the west. As of 1255 PM EDT Saturday... No Flood Watch planned at this time. Upper low over the Lower Mississippi Valley move northeast tonight and gets absorbed by the northern stream trough deepening over the central United States Sunday morning. Strongest upslope will be this afternoon through late tonight as a 40 to 50 knot low level jet pushes deep moisture up the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. HRRR and FV3 line up well with location of precipitation this afternoon. Western edge of the main shield of light rain and highest precipitable water will move from west to east during the day Sunday. No Flood Watch planned at this time. A few locations along the southern Blue Ridge have gotten 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain since midnight and of course the lift is best overnight with all the abnormally high precipitable water, but probability of getting an inch or more in the next 24 hours is low per HREF/SREF and confined to spots along the ridge line. The surface based wedged remains in place overnight then begins to weaken on Sunday as the high moves south over the western Atlantic. Still enough cloud cover to limit heating. Will stay below guidance for highs Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM EDT Saturday... An upper level low over the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday will slowly move across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday night. This low will send a cold front/showers across the mountains Monday morning, the foothills during the afternoon and then the piedmont in the evening. Up to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible with the passing of this front. Surface high pressure builds in behind the front Tuesday. With an upper level trough also over the area, fair weather cumulus clouds will pepper the mountains skies in the afternoon. A few of them could produce a sprinkle or two. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will run a few degrees cooler than normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... An upper level trough will hang over the area Wednesday. This trough will once again produce fair weather cumulus clouds over the area in the afternoon. Surface high pressure an dry weather is expected to take residence over the region into next weekend. Temperatures will generally run around normal Tuesday and Wednesday, then warm above normal Thursday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 815 PM EDT Saturday... Upper low over the Lower Mississippi Valley move northeast tonight and gets absorbed by the northern stream trough deepening over the central United States Sunday morning. Strongest upslope continues through late tonight as a 40 to 50 knot low level jet pushes deep moisture up the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This will result in widespread LIFR ceilings and MVFR fog across the region. Small pockets of low level wind shear are expected tonight with surface winds from the northeast and east at less than 10 knots under the strong southeast low level jet. HRRR and FV3 line up well with location of precipitation this afternoon. Western edge of the main shield of light rain and highest precipitable water will move from west to east during the day Sunday. Surface winds will turn to the south and southwest during afternoon as the rain ends. Ceilings will slowly rise back to MVFR by the end of the day, likely not until after the 18Z/2PM end of the TAF forecast period. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind. .Extended Aviation Discussion... As the wedge erodes Sunday night, precipitation will become more scattered. A cold front will arrive Monday and Monday night with showers and a few thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the front. MVFR ceilings are expected Sunday night and Monday. After frontal passage, VFR conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with dry weather. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/SH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/RAB/SH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Already seeing light fog at top of the hour, so we added more along and E of I-49 for the overnight and early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Pops ended at 10pm and that seems fine. The latest HRRR keeps us dry and new NAM also doesn`t have much of anything until daybreak. To note, the new NAM does stir up some more light QPF on the 850mb front in the late morning and afternoon hours, but I will defer to the next issuance for more 00Z data from the GFS and ECMWF. Either way the cold front is on the way moving over Oklahoma with not many counties left to cross to get across the Red River. We will be light and variable or calm with better chances for more saturation where rain fell today in our east for S AR/N LA. Air temps are cool in the 70s with Tds in AR/LA in the low 70 range, while TX sites are still mid to upper 60s. Look for winds to gently become NW at many locales by daybreak with speeds 10-20 mph ushering in the first decent fall cold front. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 A closed low over the Midwest Monday morning and an accompanying trough trailing the low over AR/N LA into E TX will reinforce a cold front Swd out of Deep E TX and NCntrl LA during the day, allowing for slightly cooler but much drier air to spill S into the region in its wake ahead of sfc ridging that will build S into the Lower MS Valley. This will set the stage for a dry NW flow aloft over the region through midweek, with slightly cooler than normal afternoon temps but noticeably drier and cooler conditions overnight. The NBM remains a bit too cool though with max temps Monday given the extent of dry advection, but believe strong insolation with the mid- September sun will still yield even warmer temps that what is depicted, and thus have bumped up readings a degree or two areawide, similar to what was done by the mid shift. Overnight NBM temps again looks to be too warm as well, not accounting for the drier air and good radiational cooling, and thus have lowered min temps Monday and Tuesday nights closer to the cooler CONSALL which factors in the better radiational cooling. Upper ridging over the Rockies to start the new work week is expected to shift E into the nation`s midsection by midweek, before bridging E into the OH Valley atop a weakness aloft that will become cut off from the TN Valley into Coastal MS/AL. Weak sfc ridging is progged to persist over the region through the remainder of the work week, thus keeping the Gulf shut off and sunny/mostly sunny conditions in place. Increasing subsidence beneath the ridging aloft will also yield a warming trend by Tuesday, with near to slightly above normal temps returning areawide. However, RH`s should remain below average and somewhat comfortable throughout the week, with no discernible change to the overall synoptic pattern expected. Ridging aloft, albeit more amplified by the GFS, will maintain the dry conditions in place through next weekend and possibly into the next work week, although some gradual modification in min temps is expected especially by late week into next weekend. /15/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals, heating is done and much of the day`s convection, as expected E of I-49. KSHV had a good soaking of .7" and guidance was foggy prior to that, and just before sunrise. Light and variable winds may go calm before daybreak and 1/4mi to 1/2 mi VSBY looming for the rainy spots, namely KELD/KMLU/KSHV with tempo groups after midnight. The fropa will be early in the day with NW winds at our sites by 12Z less than 5KT & increasing to 10-15KT with mixing by lunch. Skies bcmg PC to SKC. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 90 65 86 / 20 10 0 0 MLU 70 88 65 84 / 20 30 10 0 DEQ 65 85 57 86 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 68 87 60 85 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 68 86 59 84 / 20 10 0 0 TYR 68 89 64 87 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 68 89 64 86 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 68 92 67 89 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...24