Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
959 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push offshore tonight before it
stalls to the south through the weekend. Another cold front
could impact the region around the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An upper trough will drop slowly through parts of the east and
southeast states through the night, causing a cold front that is
starting to trickle into the forecast counties, will push
offshore overnight and late. Behind the front, high pressure
will build out of the Great Lakes and the upper Midwest.
The mix of deep moisture convergence, modest MLCAPE and slowly
falling heights will allow for activity to persist as it moves
further into the local counties.
Based on latest trends we initially have 20/30% PoPs early on,
then PoPs that are as high as 50-60% over the Charleston tri-
county district. We show 20-30% PoPs many other sections, except
holding onto a rainfree forecast roughly south of I-16 in Georgia.
The bulk of the convection that does occur, happens through
about 3 AM, with most activity fading in both coverage
thereafter, as the cold front moves through.
Some guidance continues hinting at fog late tonight far
northwest. But condensation pressure deficits are not that
favorable. So no mention in the actual forecasts.
There is just enough cool advection that occurs behind the
cold front to allow for min temps to get down to 70-75F, with
even a few upper 60s in the Francis Marion National Forest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the surface a weak lee trough across the Mid Atlantic will
become replaced with high pressure, taking on more of a wedge-
type pattern. As an upper ridge axis pushes offshore and becomes
highly amplified, an elongated trough with an embedded low will
deepen across the northern Gulf/LA coast. The quasi-stationary
low will continuously feed shortwave energy into the area,
rippling downstream the upper trough. Numerous showers and
isolated embedded thunderstorms are expected, bringing rounds of
rainfall each day and into the overnight periods. Instability
remains extremely limited which should temper deep, if any,
convection. In addition, Friday looks especially interesting as
models show a hybrid baroclinic/convection type set-up with
precipitation taking on more of stratiform nature at times as
isentropic lift strengthens. By Saturday, the stationary front
will lift northward slightly as a warm front and align itself
along the coast. Low-level southeasterly flow will continue
overrunning/isentropic upglide through Saturday.
Heavy Rain: WPC currently highlights our area in a Day
2/Thursday marginal risk and a Day 3/Friday slight risk for
excessive rainfall. General QPF totals are expected to range
from 2-4 inches through the period with locally higher amounts
possible. HREF probabilities show at least a 40-50% chance of 1
inch of rainfall or greater within a 3-hr period along the
coastal areas each 3 hourly block from 5 PM Thursday through 8
AM Friday (which is as far as the current guidance extends).
Flood Advisories could be needed in areas that experience a
prolonged period of greater rain rates. Also, multiple days of
rainfall could weaken soils and trees could become uprooted
after long periods of saturated conditions.
Temperatures will drop a few degrees Thursday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s, lower 80s on Friday, and warming into the mid
80s for Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low will eventually become absorbed by
a secondary low that will slide across the central U.S. This
disturbance will provide the ingredients to continue the active
weather early next week, but convection coverage should return
to more scattered in nature with a diurnal pattern. As the low
advances eastward it will help push a cold front across the
region Wednesday/mid-week. Rainfall will help moderate temperatures
to near-normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS and KJZI: Scattered SHRA and TSRA will be at or near the
terminals late this evening and during the first part of the
overnight period, until a cold front passes through. Until
trends are more certain we prefer to show no more than VCSH and
VCTS. However, should a direct impact occur, then flight
restrictions would at least temporarily happen during this time.
There is small chance of additional flight restrictions late
tonight and Thursday morning with moisture trapped behind the
cold front. And there could again be some flight restrictions
late Thursday when the best moisture convergence occurs in
tandem with energy aloft. For now we prefer to show no more than
VCTS late in the day.
KSAV: In all likelihood the convection upstream will fade before
reaching the airfield. Thus we have VFR tonight into Thursday
morning. Conditions favor a potential for flight restrictions in
SHRA/TSRA Thursday afternoon due to the proximity of the front,
energy aloft and strong moisture convergence. For now we have
VCTS, but adjustments will be required in later TAF issuances.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions in
showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend.
In addition, prolonged low visibilities within heavy downpours
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
A backdoor front will slowly drop through the marine area
overnight. Winds that begin the night from the SW or W around
15 kt or less, will eventually clock around to the N and NE
overnight and late, as high pressure builds behind the front
out of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Winds could surge out
of the N on parts of the AMZ350 waters, although only briefly,
as depicted by the HRRR between about 12 AM and 3 AM.
Seas will average 2-4 feet, with much of the wave energy in the
from of swells that originated from distant Hurricane Earl.
Isolated to scattered t-storms, mainly between about 12 and 3
AM and most likely on the South Carolina waters, will occur in
response to the cold front.
Thursday through Monday: As a cold front stalls to the south of
the Georgia waters, winds will shift out of the east/northeast. The
majority of the local waters will receive plentiful rainfall
through the weekend, where bouts of heavy rain/gusty winds are
likely. Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, wind speeds
will be less than 15 knots. Seas will average 2-4 feet, although
some 5 ft seas will move into the outer Georgia waters Friday
into Saturday. Early next week, winds will become more southerly
ahead of an approaching front.
Rip Currents: Long period swell around 11-12 seconds being generated
from distant tropical cyclone Earl combined with onshore winds
will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents at all of our
beaches through the weekend. The current forecast features a
Moderate Risk of Rip currents for all beaches Thursday and a
High Risk for all beaches Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of the upcoming full moon and onshore winds
will lead to elevated tide cycles through the weekend. Coastal
Flood Advisories are likely during the evening high tides
Thursday and Friday. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories could
be needed during the evening high tides through the weekend,
especially given any rainfall that coincides with high tide. The
risk will be highest along the Charleston and Colleton county
coasts, where minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding will be
possible. Further south, tide levels could approach minor flood
levels.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
614 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Adjusted PoPs for the next few hours to account for current radar
trends. Isolated convection will be possible over the next few hours
with activity expected to wane with the loss of daytime heating.
It`s possible we see activity linger a bit longer than expected as
the RAP tugs a H5 vort max along the coast through the evening hours
but confidence was not high enough to reflect in the forecast at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Key messages:
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms early this evening over the
northern CWA becoming isolated to scattered Thursday afternoon.
- Dry (rain-free) conditions prevail beginning Thursday night.
A band of positive vorticity on the backside of a mid-level low
located over Louisiana along with a weak frontal boundary has
initiated convection over the Hill Country this afternoon. Latest
CAM guidance has this activity pushing southward, diminishing as
it reaches our northern CWA. We`ll have to keep a close eye on
this activity as recent events have shown that CAM guidance
typically underplays the activity of outflow boundary driven
convection heading into the evening. Can`t ignore the fact that
instability will be decreasing with loss of heating but have
included slight chances of showers and thunderstorms over the
northern half of the CWA through the evening. Expect all activity
to be done by midnight tonight.
A shortwave extending from the aforementioned low is projected to
send a second band of positive vorticity from 850 to 500mb north
to south across South Texas through the afternoon into early
evening on Thursday. Models do vary in the strength of this band
with the GFS/NAM stronger than the ECMWF. But CAM guidance (HRRR &
ARW) is also showing isolated to scattered coverage in the
afternoon. Went with 20-30% PoPs across South Texas with greatest
chances over the Victoria Crossroads. Highs will generally range
near 90 along the coast to the mid 90s over the Rio Grande Plains
with lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
A subsident and drier air pattern will be the main story for the long
term period. To kickoff things off the upper air pattern will
feature an upper trough draped across the eastern CONUS and ridging
along west Mexico stretching up into the Desert SW. As we progress
through the weekend, not much change for South Texas as expecting
dry and warm conditions. Early next week the aforementioned trough
becomes embedded in the overall pattern to the north and the ridge
expands and shifts eastward. Meanwhile, a mid-level low tracking
across the northern Plains will send a front surging southward.
Looking at the latest deterministic guidance shows somewhat of a
weak boundary approaching our CWA. Even if it does reach our border,
not expecting anything more than a shift in the winds. PWAT`s are
progged to dip to near a low of around 1.20" this weekend which is
less than the 25th percentile for this time of year. Rain chances do
increase slightly towards the middle of next week as precipitable
water values increase closer to 1.50" combined with the seabreeze.
Afternoon temperatures during the long term period will be mainly
persistent, ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Meanwhile
overnight lows will range in the 70s. Maximum heat indices will top
out near 100 degrees across portions of South Texas through the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions are currently in place across the region. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing north of the region
and may impact COT and VCT from 00Z-04Z. As a result, introduced
VCTS for the next few hours. Otherwise, there will be a brief
window closer to sunrise where we may see some patchy MVFR fog
across ALI/VCT with VFR returning by mid morning. Winds will be
light and variable through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Isolated showers this afternoon will diminish by early this
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop
late overnight tonight continuing through midday Thursday before
diminishing later in the afternoon. Generally weak and variable
flow will persist through early next week Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Friday then drier for the weekend.
Isolated thunderstorm chances return early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 74 93 74 90 / 10 20 20 10
Victoria 72 93 72 92 / 20 30 20 10
Laredo 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 20 10
Alice 73 93 72 94 / 10 20 20 10
Rockport 76 92 77 91 / 10 30 20 20
Cotulla 75 97 75 97 / 20 10 10 10
Kingsville 73 92 73 91 / 10 20 20 10
Navy Corpus 77 92 78 89 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TC/95
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Impressively strong and expansive midlevel high (near 600 dm) was
near its peak intensity, centered over Utah at midday. Strong
subsidence on the anticyclone`s eastern periphery continued to
produce a clear sky across all of the Great Plains. High pressure
aloft will begin collapsing Thursday, with appreciable height
falls over SW KS. Despite this evolution, models show little
change in 850 mb thermal fields, and the upper 90s expected
Wednesday afternoon will be repeated Thursday afternoon. A few
locations will flirt with 100 degrees today and/or Thursday. Sky
grids will remain at 0% through Thursday as the weakening ridge
axis remains overhead. Dry air will continue to promote large
diurnal temperature ranges, with upper 50s and lower 60s at
sunrise, and upper 90s to near 100 at 4 pm. Light winds will
continue this afternoon, tonight and early Thursday. After
10 am Thursday, S/SE winds will increase some to 10-20 mph,
gusting to 25 mph, in response to 995 mb lee cyclogenesis over
NE Colorado.
As shown by HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecasts, smoke will
continue to be imported over SW KS through Thursday, transported
by the northerly midlevel flow on the eastern periphery of the
weakening upper high. The sky will appear hazy at times, but did
not attempt to account for this in sky grids. Since most of the
smoke will be well above the boundary layer, did not include smoke
in the weather grids.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Much advertised cold front continues to be forecast to be
entering NW Kansas during the day Friday. The cold front boundary
is expected to collide with a very hot boundary layer over western
Kansas Friday, which is expected to temporarily slow its
southward progression. As such, Friday will be another very hot
day, with afternoon temperatures well into the upper 90s across
the central and southeast zones. Increased the NBM max temp grid
several degrees.
Prefer the fastest guidance regarding cold front progression, with
the front accelerating through SW KS after sunset Friday evening.
Given 12z NAM`s progged pressure gradient Friday evening, north
winds will be strong and gusty during this time, stronger than NBM
or other guidance. Expecting the cold front to clear the Oklahoma
border by sunrise Saturday.
Saturday will feature a welcome taste of fall, with increasing
clouds, elevated north winds by afternoon, and much cooler
temperatures. Northern zones will be reduced to the 70s Saturday
afternoon. Models project shower and isolated thunderstorm
coverage to increase Saturday afternoon, as moisture and lift
increase over the incoming cool airmass. The best window of
opportunity for sorely needed rainfall is focused on Saturday
evening, when a frontogenetic band of showers is expected in the
post frontal environment. NBM pops align with this thinking, but
again purposely kept pops contained to the chance category
(40-50%) given expectations in an exceptional drought. Ensemble
average/12z ECMWF QPF is around 0.25 inch, and this appears to be
a reasonable expectation for some locations Saturday evening. It
won`t be much, but it is the only chance of rain in the forecast.
North winds may be at their strongest as the rain falls, as
1028 mb surface high pressure builds south into NE Colorado
Saturday night.
Surface high pressure will build in strongly Sunday, with a
clearing sky, light winds and wonderful temperatures. Sunday
afternoon will present some of the nicest weather of the year with
lower to mid 70s and light winds. Surface ridge is forecast to
hold through sunrise Monday, allowing for radiational cooling with
light winds, dry air, dry ground and a clear sky. Upper 40s are
expected to be common Monday morning.
High pressure ridging aloft builds in strongly Monday through
Wednesday, with a rapid warming trend and no chance of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions for the entirety of the period for all TAF sites.
Light south winds less than 10kts and clear skies overnight. Winds
will increase out of the south after 15Z to 25kt gusts due to
tightening of the gradient with leeside troughing deepening over
eastern Colorado with more difluent northwest flow aloft. This
will last through the end of the period before diminishing towards
sunset due to radiational cooling. No other weather elements are
expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 98 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 60 97 63 93 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 60 99 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 61 98 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 62 97 63 93 / 0 0 0 10
P28 63 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Lowe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Summary: Very warm temperatures are forecast Thursday with a
chance for thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night as a
cold front moves into the region. The front will move slow with
chances for showers/storms lingering into the weekend over
portions of the Northland. Much cooler temperatures arrive Friday.
Drier conditions expected for most late weekend into mid-week.
High pressure will move south and east of the region tonight leading
to mostly clear skies. The pressure gradient will strengthen tonight
between the departing high and low pressure off to the west and
northwest. Strong warm air advection will occur tonight into
Thursday driving highs to 80 to 90 degrees Thursday afternoon.
Smoke should be on the increase tonight into Thursday which may
temper highs some. Gusty southerly winds will occur ahead of the
front Thursday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The strong warm air
advection will lead to a strong cap as seen on forecast RAP
soundings. We delayed shower/storm chances until late
afternoon/early evening as it should take some time for the cap
to weaken and it may not occur until later Thursday evening as
the upper trough gets closer. Mid to upper sixties dewpoints won`t
have far to go to get into the Northland as they were over
central to southern Minnesota this afternoon. The RAP forecasts a
zone of MLCAPE values from 1000 to around 1500 J/KG ahead of the
front with surface dewpoints of 65-70 degrees, which are likely to
occur. Deep layer shear will be favorable for organized severe
storms once the cap weakens, the question is just when will it
weaken. It`s possible some elevated storms may develop first
Thursday afternoon but there is still decent CIN present for that.
700-500MB lapse rates will increase to 9 C/KM ahead of the front
so large hail, greater than ping pong ball size, and damaging
winds will be possible. The SPC has much of the Northland
outlooked with a marginal risk which still is reasonable due to
questions about the CAP.
The front will be slow moving and will stretch from north central
Lake Superior southwest into western Iowa at 12Z Friday. It will be
cooler Friday with highs from the mid-sixties to lower seventies.
Chances for showers/storms will continue over much of the Northland,
highest over northwest Wisconsin and far northeast Minnesota with
chances decreasing further west. An upper trough will settle over
the region Friday and remain into Saturday. Chances for
showers/storms will diminish Friday night into Saturday, lingering
over northwest Wisconsin into adjacent east-central Minnesota.
Global models show a stronger shortwave moving through the base of
the trough with a closed upper low developing late Saturday night
into Sunday. The GFS is faster moving the close upper low east with
the ECMWF/Canadian slower. We prefer the slower ECMWF solution.
The closed upper low is forecast to be far enough south of the
Northland that dry conditions will occur for most areas. We do
continue low chances for showers over parts of northwest
Wisconsin. Drier conditions are expected for most Monday into
Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday into Wednesday will be a few
degrees either side of normal, cooler Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions across the Northland this evening. Overnight, LLWS
will surge in from the southwest and impact most terminals until
after sunrise. Winds will then translate down to the surface with
southerly winds gusting into the upper 20s through the day. A cold
front will be marching in from the northwest later in the period and
may produce some showers and storms. Additionally, opaque skies will
be widespread as smoke from the fires out west filter in.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Onshore winds less than 15 knots will continue through most of the
night, becoming southerly late tonight into Thursday morning. The
pressure gradient will strengthen Thursday and gusty southerly
winds to 25 knots will occur, mainly from the Twin Ports region
east along the South Shore. A few 30 knots gusts will be possible
as well along the South Shore including Chequamegon Bay. A few
thunderstorms will be possible along the North Shore late Thursday
afternoon with chances increasing and spreading over the rest of
western Lake Superior Thursday night. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible. The gusty southerly winds will decrease
Thursday night and veer to west to northwest behind the cold
front. Speeds will be 15 knots or less later Thursday night into
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 85 58 65 / 0 20 60 60
INL 60 83 54 67 / 0 20 20 10
BRD 66 89 57 66 / 0 10 40 50
HYR 58 84 60 69 / 0 10 50 60
ASX 56 87 62 70 / 0 10 80 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight CDT Thursday
night for LSZ121-146>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-
145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Melde
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1018 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
1. Very warm Thursday with breezy winds
2. Fire weather concerns Thursday west of I-29
3. Rain chances Friday into Saturday
4. Cooler late week into the weekend
Tonight: Quiet conditions expected through the overnight although
winds aloft begin to increase after dark. Elevation favored areas
such as the Buffalo Ridge likely stand the best chance to see the
best fetch of this higher momentum air work toward the surface,
pushing gusts into the 30-40 mph range.
Thursday: Main concern for Thursday will be the increased fire
weather danger courtesy of gustier winds, very warm temperatures and
dry conditions. Prefrontal winds in a mechanically mixed atmosphere
ahead of the front will result in south to southwesterly winds
gusting between 25-35 mph through the afternoon hours. Meanwhile,
850 mb temperatures AOA the 90th percentile of climatology will push
temperatures into the 90s and likely just above 100 through a narrow
corridor of prefrontal compression near and west of the James
River.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Thursday Night: Initial wind shift to a more northerly direction
arrives into our far western zones by late afternoon, continuing its
southeastward trek through the overnight hours. Will carry a very
small POP along/north of the Hwy 14 corridor through the first half
of the overnight where a bit better support from the right entrance
of the upper level jet may exist. Some additional light precip
chances approach closer to the daybreak hours.
We`ll also likely see an additional bump in wind gusts as stronger
CAA arrives through the evening/overnight hours. HRRR smoke model
suggest perhaps a bit of the upper level wildfire smoke may get
drawn to the surface post-frontal but at this time, not expecting
any impacts.
Friday and Saturday: Post-frontal low/mid level frontogenesis should
spin up a corridor of showers and embedded thunderstorms although
progged soundings aren`t overly impressive for rainfall efficiency.
The GFS/GEFS continue to sit on the low end of distribution in terms
of QPF with only moderate odds (<50%) of greater than a tenth of an
inch of rainfall while the deterministic ECMWF/NAM sit on the higher
side with EPS odds of a tenth of an inch generally greater than 60%.
GFS likely suffering from mixing biased issues but overall still
looking at any rainfall amounts through the Friday/Saturday
timeframe less than 0.5 inch in most locations. The potential
caveat could be NW IA where amounts may sit on the higher side
although ensemble probabilities suggest that WPC QPF may be on the
higher side of the distribution. Run to run model consistency has
been poor and thus will maintain the NBM/WPC approach to POPs/QPF at
this time. Any rainfall by Saturday will likely focus through NE
Nebraska, far SE South Dakota into NW Iowa.
Amplified shortwave troughing overhead will allow for much cooler
temperatures for late week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Sunday: Region sits through the backside of troughing by second half
of the weekend with increasing sunshine, although temperatures
remain seasonably cool in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Monday through Wednesday: Increasing influence from building ridging
expected for the first half of the week although guidance spread on
how quick temperatures respond still leaves some be to desire. GFS
most aggressive with a wave later Tuesday with would result in a
breezier period and perhaps some precip chances late in the period
with ECMWF much more mute.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions prevail through Thursday as western wildfire smoke
streams through aloft. Expect southerly winds to occasionally
gust overnight with the southwesterly low level jet inducing low
level wind shear through sunrise. Southerly winds strengthen ahead
of an approaching front on Thursday with gusts of 20-30 kts
expected. Winds will shift westerly and eventually northwesterly
and gusty behind the front moving into central and eastern SD
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Thursday will start the day with breezy south to southwest winds
sustained 15 to 25 mph with some gusts 25 to 30 mph. As a cold
front approaches from the northwest, winds will take on a more
northerly direction. Meanwhile, adequate mixing and prefrontal
compression will push temperatures into the 90s, even just above
100 for locations west of the James River. This will help drive
relative humidity values toward or into critical values,
especially west of I-29.
The setback to perhaps more certain critical fire weather
conditions will be a likely lull in wind speeds through this wind
shift that may result in an ill-timed overlap of the stronger
winds and lowest RH values. Current Fire Weather Watch covers the
area of lowest RH (likely into critical values) while areas just
east of the current watch may represent an area of higher winds
but RH values just shy of critical values. One further fly in the
ointment is any influence of upper level wildfire smoke on
eventual mixing. Confidence just simply isn`t there to either
expand the watch further east nor resolve the current watch area
of a Red Flag Warning. Either way, areas west of I-29 and
especially south of I-90 should see fire danger push into the Very
High category, perhaps reaching warning criteria. Will allow
future shifts to evaluate any headlines changes.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for SDZ050-052-053-057>059-063-064.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kalin
LONG TERM...Kalin
AVIATION...BP
FIRE WEATHER...Kalin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
754 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Forecast overall remains on track. Sky coverage was increased a
bit for Thursday to account for the haziness from smoke aloft
from the western CONUS fires as the HRRR Vertically Integrated
Smoke continues to indicate that it will still be present.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Hot and dry conditions continue through Thursday before cold front
arrives on Friday and begins a dramatic cool down and chance for
precipitation over the weekend. Temperatures will peak tomorrow
in the upper 90s to lower 100s under the upper ridge centered over
the western CONUS. Despite lack of much wind aloft for mixing,
surface pressure gradient increases enough ahead of the front to
the north to allow wind speeds to gust in the 20-30 kt range
across much of the forecast area. The downsloping winds will also
aid in drying, with dew points expected to tank into 30s and
relative humidity to less than 15 percent. As a result, have
issued a Red Flag Warning for all but the eastern areas for
tomorrow. For Thursday night, cold front will begin to enter the
far northwest areas (Yuma County) after 06z and already be about
half way through the area by 12z. A few hours of breezy northwest
winds will accompany the front. A few very light rain showers will
also be possible. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
The cold front continues to move through the area Friday morning
and will clear the final few counties in the southeast forecast
area Friday afternoon. A few showers may linger into Friday
morning along and behind the front. Thunderstorms will develop
along the front Friday afternoon, but at this time appears that
will occur just outside the area, but it will be close for Gove
and Graham counties in Kansas. Otherwise, breezy north to
northeast winds continue through the day behind the front with a
rather large temperature gradient. Highs will range from the
lower 70s in northeast Colorado to around 90 in Graham and Gove
counties with later frontal passage. Post frontal showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms will develop Friday night. Low
temperatures will range from the middle 40s to the middle 50s,
coolest in Colorado.
Saturday will be cloudy and much cooler with scattered light rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms as the upper trough will be
slow to move out and post frontal upslope continues. Precipitation
amounts will generally range from a tenth to a quarter of an
inch. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s. Showers will
gradually come to an end Saturday night with lows in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Sunday is still looking to be cool with clearing skies followed by
a warming trend through the first half of next week.
In the upper-level, a trough will be sweeping through the area
Sunday. As this trough moves through the region and exits to the
southeast, it will remove most of the lingering moisture and
clouds throughout the day Sunday. How fast the clouds move out
will have an impact on the maximum temperatures, but we expect
Sunday`s temperatures to top out in the low to mid 70s. Another
dry spell is expected to set in and no precipitation is forecast
in the long-term period.
As the trough leaves, a ridge will begin building in behind it and
keep the Tri-State skies mostly clear for the rest of the forecast
period. At the surface early Monday morning, winds are expected to
shift and begin coming from the south. These winds and clear skies
will persist for the first half of next week and begin a warming
trend throughout the region that could allow maximum temperatures
on Wednesday to reach the low 90s. Minimum temperatures will
follow a similar trend with Sunday night dropping into the mid and
upper 40s while Tuesday night will remain in the 50s.
Around Wednesday next week, guidance differs as the upper-level
ridge axis begins to move over the region. The ECMWF is showing a
more zonal flow with a less amplified ridge moving over the
Rockies while the GFS is showing a well amplified ridge promptly
followed by a mid-level shortwave. This will be a feature worth
watching over the next few days to see how it develops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 451 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire period at each
site. An area of smoke aloft is moving south across the northern
plains, no surface restrictions are expected. Winds will briefly
become light for a few hours before the low level wind field
increases again allowing winds to become sustained around 12-15
knots overnight at KGLD. LLWS is expected to occur overnight at
KMCK as surface winds remain below 10 knots. LLWS will end
around sunrise as winds become breezy mid morning as diurnal
mixing begins.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for KSZ001>003-
013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
729 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
- Locally dense fog possible tonight
Surface dewpoints will be elevated along and west of US 131 due to
wind coming off of Lake MI. With mainly clear skies and light
winds predicted for tonight...this should lead to good radiational
cooling. Forecast low temperatures are shown to be at least
several degrees below the current surface dewpoints. This all
points to a risk for fog redevelopment. The 16z HRRR shows areas
of dense fog closer to the lakeshore later tonight which could
lead to some impact. We will feature a risk for fog tonight and
mention the impacts in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Any fog
should not last long after sunrise...similar to today.
- Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms early next
week
Overall there is still a lot of model spread on how this scenario
could evolve...but the general theme is for increasing potential
for rain. A mid to upper level low forms over the Central Plains
on Sunday. This system then drifts slowly east into the Southern
Great Lakes region through Monday. At the same time...a low is
shown to be lifting northward out of the Gulf and that system gets
absorbed in the mid to upper level low. The added moisture from
this southern system will increase the excessive rain risk. We
will feature the highest POPs in the Sunday to Monday window. For
Tuesday into Wednesday...the region will still be under the
influence of this system but there are some indications the the
deepest moisture will shift east of the CWA during this period.
With a cold pool aloft...we may transition to more of a diurnally
driven shower/storm pattern Tuesday into Wednesday. For the entire
event...rainfall could be efficient with this system as the
forecast soundings are showing low LCL`s and thin deep CAPE. In
addition...PWAT values in most models suggest we will approach 2
inches especially over southern parts of the CWA Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
I expect nearly clear skies tonight, and for that matter Thursday
too. With the surface high overhead tonight, and then moving off
to the east on Thursday, surface winds will be light and variable.
MKG and maybe GRR will see a lake breeze wind shift mid to late
afternoon Thursday.
Shallow dense fog is expected from around 2 am till around 7 am
Thursday morning. Seems the GRR and MKG taf sites would see the
most impact from the fog early Thursday morning. All TAF sites
will become clear by 13-14z.
m
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
South winds will be on the increase Thursday night into Friday as
a warm air advection pattern sets up. Gust for the most part look
like they will stay under 20 knots so no headlines will be issued
at this time. The highest waves will over the northern zones given
the longer fetch...however they are projected to remain mostly
under 4 feet.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
High pressure will provide dry weather into at least Saturday
morning. Temperatures start out close to normal on Thursday with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The heat and humidity then
gradually build into the weekend and provide a chance of showers
and a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early next week.
The best chance of rain is Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Pleasant afternoon with plenty of fair weather cumulus under the
mid-level inversion associated with high pressure ridging.
Generally light winds and subsidence will allow high temperatures
to rise to rise into the upper 70s. Northerly flow will enhance
the lake breeze this afternoon and evening which will lead to
slightly cooler temperatures near the lake where highs are
expected to be in the low to mid 70s.
Winds will die down overnight and skies will clear, leading to
patchy to locally dense once again. Hi-res models are indicating
that fog will be most likely across northwest Indiana. This is
possibly due to slightly higher low level moisture being downwind
from Lake Michigan.
High pressure will shift east on Thursday, and the increased
warming will cause afternoon high temperatures to rise to around
80.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
It will continue to warm going into the weekend as the ridge
moves over the region and then into the mid-Atlantic. The
resulting subsidence will keep the area dry and push daytime highs
into the low 80s for Friday and Saturday. A Gulf low will bring
moisture and energy up through Mississippi Valley on Saturday, and
showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift into the region
Saturday evening. Another low will develop over the central plains
on Sunday, which will then slowly meander across Illinois and
Indiana for the through at least Tuesday, and keep convective
activity going. A few showers may linger on Wednesday even as the
low finally moves east of the region. Temperatures will fall into
the low to mid 70s during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Subsident surface ridge over the Upper Great Lakes into the
Middle Mississippi Valley will shift eastward into the Lower Great
Lakes over the next 24 hours. Extremely dry air mass to provide
VFR conditions. The only exception will be the potential for what
should be only MVFR visibility restrictions around daybreak at
peak of radiational cooling. Sharp surface based inversion and
lows 2-4F below KSBN/KFWA of 57/56, respectively, along with
supporting 21 UTC HRRR with expanding MVFR, plus/minus about an
hour either side of sunrise.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...Murphy
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
718 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
The main concern in the short term will be near record
to record highs on Thursday, fire weather concerns Thursday and
precipitation chances for Thursday along with smoke potential.
For high temperatures, models continue to trend warmer and went with
the 90th percentile as this setup looks favorable for some very hot
temperatures by September standards. Some of the warmest
temperatures will be out ahead of the front with many locations
reaching the low 100s. Currently some of the climate sites,
including North Platte are forecast to break records, see climate
section for record temperature information.
There will be some smoke potential tonight and Thursday. The HRRR
model is showing some sfc smoke however it remains pretty low
through the day which leads to low confidence of smoke impacting
visibility at the SFC. That being said, there is a somewhat
significant increase in vertically integrated smoke across much of
the forecast through this afternoon into Thursday, thus
confidence has increased in the probability of having some
elevated smoke in the area, or haze, have added some cloud cover
to account for this. Confidence is low that this will have any
impact on high temperatures for tomorrow.
As for precipitation with the frontal passage, there will be a lot
of dry air out ahead of the front with precipitation looking less
likely at least through the afternoon. Heading into the evening
hours there may be the potential for some thunderstorm development
along and behind the front. However, again with low level moisture
lacking there is more confidence that any thunderstorm that does
develop with be LP in nature and there is the potential for some dry
lightning, which could lead to fire starts.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
With the ridge breaking down, it will finally give some reprieve
to the hot summer temperatures with highs finally cooler with
highs in the 60s to low 70s for Friday. This is actually below
normal temps for this time of year, around 5 to 15 degrees below
normal. As a trof pushes through on Saturday, another bout of
colder air will pull in from the north reinforcing the cool
temperatures with highs struggling to reach just above 60 degrees.
Precipitation chances will increase Friday night into Saturday,
as moisture returns look favorable for some widespread
precipitation across the area. Most locations are expected to see
some sort of moisture, but generally on the lighter side, less
than a quarter of an inch. There is however some confidence in the
models that a corridor of precip near a half inch total qpf may
be possible across the eastern and central Nebraska into portions
of the southwest Nebraska. If this holds in later model runs there
is a good chance some locations in our southern and eastern
forecast area may see some beneficial rains.
Unfortunately the cooler temperatures are short lived as an upper
level ridge begins to build back into the southwest CONUS at the
start of the work week bringing us a return to the northwest flow
and warmer temperatures next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Thursday
across western and north central Nebraska. There will be some hazy
skies due to smoke but this should remain aloft and not impact
VSBY at the surface. Low-level wind shear will be of concern
tonight into early Thursday morning and this is outlined in area
TAFs. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
A Red Flag warning has been issued for the entire forecast area
as conditions will be favorable as the combination of gusty winds,
low humidity and even dry lightning concerns will lead to
critical fire weather concerns. Overnight recovery tonight will be
lacking, especially across western Nebraska and the northern
Sandhills where RH will range from 30 to 50 percent overnight. As
for tomorrow there will also be very warm temperatures in the
afternoon with highs reaching the low 100s across most locations
of western, southwest and north central Nebraska, including the
Sandhills. There will also be the concern with dry conditions and
thunderstorm potential that any thunderstorms that develop will
have a lack of moisture, thus leading to dry lightning concerns,
which could be fire starters. Winds will be gusty with wind gust
of 25 to 30 mph expected mainly out of the southwest. There will
be a wind shift to also take in consideration as the front moves
across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska during the day,
winds will shift to the north.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Temperatures for Thursday will range from 20 to 25 degrees above
normal. For North Platte the record high for September 8th is 101
degrees set in 2013, with a forecast high of 104. The record
highs for Valentine is 101 degrees set in 1931 with a forecast
high of 104. Imperial`s record high is 102 degrees set in 1977,
with a forecast of 104 degrees.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ204-206-
208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Gomez
CLIMATE...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
829 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Expecting redevelopment of patchy fog by early Thursday morning,
with some potential for more widespread fog west and southeast of
Chicago. Have made some minor adjustments to increase fog wording
in these spots after midnight, otherwise going forecast is in good
shape this evening.
Quiet weather conditions remain in placed across the forecast
area this evening, beneath eastern periphery of the western
CONUS/Plains upper ridge. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure
was centered over the IL/WI/IA border region per latest analysis
and was providing generally light/variable or calm winds across
the area with the exception of light east-northeast winds near
Lake Michigan associated with the decaying diurnal lake breeze
circulation. Other than a little patchy, thin cirrus dropping
south across northern and central WI (and a bit of haziness aloft
associated with elevated smoke from western wildfires per late-day
GOES-16 visible imagery and HRRR smoke graphics), skies will
remain clear overnight.
Only real weather concern overnight is the potential for patchy
fog development again after midnight. Afternoon surface dew points
in the upper 50s/low 60s in many spots combined with calm winds
will likely allow for patchy shallow radiational fog away from the
warmer core of the Chicago metro area during the pre-dawn hours
of early Thursday. High-res guidance again indicates parts of
north/northwest IL from the Fox River Valley westward, and areas
from Kankakee eastward into northwest IN for perhaps the greatest
fog potential. RAP forecast soundings depict the deepest moist
hydrolapse profiles south and southeast of the Chicago area, and
visibility guidance generally indicates lowest visibilities in the
vicinity of the Kankakee River Valley into Thursday morning. Have
increased fog coverage wording in forecast for now, and would not
be surprised to again need a dense fog advisory for portions of
the area by morning.
Otherwise, expecting overnight lows from the mid-50s in coolest
inland locations to the lower 60s in Chicago proper. Going
forecast has this well in hand, and other than enhancing fog
wording in aforementioned areas, no changes appear necessary.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Through Thursday night...
Only forecast concern is fog potential tonight/Thursday morning.
High pressure will settle across the area tonight allowing for
clear skies and mainly calm winds. This should allow for at least
patchy fog to develop away from Chicago. Much of the guidance
shows fog by Thursday morning, but there remains uncertainty for
how widespread or dense the fog may become. Appears the most
favored area for potential dense fog will be the northwest cwa and
trends will need to be monitored later this evening into early
Thursday morning. Any fog that forms will dissipate quickly after
sunrise Thursday morning. Low temps tonight likely to be in the
50s for most of the area, warmer in Chicago.
Winds will remain light on Thursday, turning southerly as the high
shifts east. A lake breeze is likely keeping the lakeshore area a
few degrees cooler, with highs in the lower/mid 80s inland. Still
some uncertainty for how far inland the lake breeze will move.
While surface winds will remain light southerly Thursday night,
likely under 10 mph, winds just above the surface are forecast to
steadily increase through the night and this should limit if not
prevent fog development Thursday night into Friday morning. cms
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2022
Friday through Wednesday...
Another tranquil, mostly clear, and cool night is on tap at the
start of the long term period Friday. Surface high pressure will
begin to develop more meaningfully eastward on Friday, and this
will allow southerly gradient flow to return. A lake breeze will
turn winds out of the southeast/east-southeast which will probably
hold lakeside areas across Lake County Illinois in the upper
70s/lower 80s, with mid 80s more prevalent with inland extent.
Somewhat more unsettled conditions look to return during the
weekend, but latest indications continue to point to much of
Saturday likely staying dry as we`ll remain within a col/saddle
point within the upper level flow. Any isolated shower/storm
chances look to hold off until later in the afternoon, and it`s
possible the entire afternoon remains precip-free area-wide.
Guidance is still in decent agreement regarding the character of
the large scale flow towards Sunday and Monday, with a large cut-
off circulation developing somewhere across the Upper Midwest.
However, the specifics regarding timing and location of any
phasing associated with a southward-advancing PV anomaly still
remain up in the air. Periods of scattered showers and perhaps a
storm or two seem to characterize the most probable outcome of
things on Sunday, and possibly into Monday, with just too much
uncertainty to advertise anything more than high-end chance PoPs
at this point. The cessation of precipitation chances and
temporarily gloomier weather remains unclear at this time with
slower/deeper solutions suggestive of chances lingering into
Tuesday.
Carlaw/BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
The primary aviation weather concerns through the 00Z TAF period are
as follows:
* The potential for some Thursday morning fog at DPA, GYY, and RFD
NE flow under 10 kts will continue into the latter part of the
evening before winds subside to below 5 kts and become variable in
direction for the night. By mid-morning on Thursday, winds will
establish a southerly direction eventually building to just under 10
kts by the afternoon. Predominantly southerly flow will then take us
through the end of the TAF period while remaining under 10 kts. It`s
likely that winds will teeter on either side of southerly from time
to time, especially Thursday morning and evening.
Additionally, fog is expected to develop across parts of the suburbs
early Thursday morning which could potentially impact DPA, GYY, and
RFD. MVFR vsbys appear probable should fog develop over the
airfields with a drop below IFR thresholds also possible. Conditions
should improve to VFR by, or shortly after, 13Z. At ORD and MDW,
VFR conditions can be expected through the entirety of the
period.
Doom
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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