Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/07/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Updated for isolated gusty and mostly dry showers and
thunderstorms moving from southwest CO into northwest NM this
evening. Expect this activity will be done by midnight if not
sooner although HRRR and RAP don`t have it at all. Updated ZFP
just issued.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
High pressure keeps rain chances low for much of the workweek. The
next rain chances come this weekend as a trough dives down into
the Rockies, pulling a front into the CWA by Saturday.
Temperatures will remain above average for much of this week
thanks to high pressure over the area. A slight cooldown is
expected this weekend associated with rain and clouds moving into
the state.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
This evening through Wednesday night
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
A sprawling monsoon high remains anchored over UT today, forecast to
move little between tonight and Wednesday night, will continue to
result in dry and hot weather for early September over the next
couple of days. Weather prediction models agree that pressure
heights will begin falling over UT and western CO late-day Wednesday
into Wednesday night, signaling a gradual end to the anomalous heat
bubble. The relatively dry air across much of the higher elevations
of northern and central NM will likely result in large diurnal
temperatures differences with Angel Fire and much of the Moreno
Valley dropping to near freezing by sunup Wednesday. Diffuse smoke
from the wildfires to the west and north of NM will continue to move
in from the east and northeast resulting in some haze and little
else.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Monday
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Calm and dry conditions are expected to begin the period as high
pressure, centered to the NW of the state, continues to drive the
weather pattern. This pattern will likely change heading into this
weekend as a trough dives down from Canada making its way through
the Rockies and Northern Plains. This trough will likely pull a
front across the state increasing PoPs for this weekend into
early next week. The highest rain chances will be for higher
elevations, however, most locations across the state could see
rainfall by early next week as widespread rain becomes possible
by Sunday into Monday morning.
With Hurricane Kay off the coast of Mexico, there is always a
chance...depending on steering flow, that tropical moisture could
make its way into portions of NM. Current model guidances brings Kay
into the central part of the Baja Peninsula before sending it west,
away from the area. No impacts from Kay are expected at this time
for the CWA but the storm will continue to be monitored for changes
to track and/or intensity.
Temperatures are expected to be the warmest Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will then drop some associated with rain and clouds
from the system this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Upper high centered across the Great Basin and CO. Any isold
convection with gusty outflow winds to move sw out of swrn CO and
into nw NM before 06Z. Isold convection to redevelop over swrn CO
aft 07/19Z and again impact nw NM. Haze due to PacNW wildfire
smoke may become more noticeable over ern and portions of srn NM
as the smoke circulates around the upper high center.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Monsoon high continues over UT through Thursday before slowly
weakening Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are forecast to
gradually cool day by day from Friday through early next week.
Thunderstorms will return to the forecast Friday and especially
Saturday as a backdoor cold front moves in bringing low level
moisture back into NM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 64 95 61 95 / 10 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 50 90 50 91 / 10 10 0 10
Cuba............................ 51 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 54 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 52 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 48 87 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 50 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 57 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 47 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 49 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 55 93 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 49 83 50 84 / 0 10 0 10
Los Alamos...................... 59 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
Pecos........................... 52 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
Cerro/Questa.................... 45 85 42 85 / 0 10 0 10
Red River....................... 41 77 41 79 / 0 10 0 10
Angel Fire...................... 30 79 31 79 / 0 10 0 10
Taos............................ 48 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 10
Mora............................ 47 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 10
Espanola........................ 47 93 58 92 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Fe........................ 60 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 50 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 66 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 58 95 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 58 96 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 54 95 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 60 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 52 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 60 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 63 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 63 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 56 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 46 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 54 86 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 55 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 57 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 50 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 44 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 45 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 10
Clayton......................... 56 92 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 53 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 56 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 55 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 57 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 57 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 59 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 59 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 61 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 52 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Quiet weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow for the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
This afternoon, temperatures are warming up into the mid 80s
across the CWA under clear skies. Temperatures should continue to
rise into the low 90s by late afternoon. Latest RAP H500 analysis
shows a center of high pressure is located over Utah and is
bringing northerly to northeasterly flow across the Southern High
Plains. With this steering flow in place, smoke from fires in the
northwestern CONUS is being moved across the Rockies into the
Plains today. Hi-res models suggest that some of this smoke may
reach the Panhandles later this afternoon, which could lead to
somewhat hazy skies, most notably on the horizon.
High pressure is forecast to remain mostly stationary through
tomorrow, with only a minor shift to the east expected. To the
east of our forecast area, low pressure strengthens across the
southeastern US and northerly flow continues across the Plains.
What does this change weather wise? Not too much. Temperatures
will rise once again into the 90s and could perhaps be a degree or
two warmer than today. Winds should be on the light side and
clear skies will prevail.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue at the
beginning of the extended forecast. A cold front will push south
across the Plains this weekend and is forecast to bring cooler
temperatures to the forecast area. The front may even bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
for portions of the area.
A upper level high pressure system with associated ridge will
begin to break down on Thursday as a longwave trough digs
southward out of British Columbia and Alberta. The positively
tilted trough will continue to move south and east through this
coming weekend. This trough will aid in propelling a surface cold
front across the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday into
Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to drop behind the front and
may struggle to get out of the 70s for most areas on Sunday.
Sufficient moisture may be in place as the front progresses
southward and could generate some showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday night into Sunday. The latest NBM is picking up on this
possibility and has increased PoPs across the entire CWA during
this timeframe. This chance will be highly dependent upon the
positioning of the front. With that being said, have left the
blended guidance for now as this is still quite a few days out.
As the aforementioned trough continues to move east across the
Midwest, a ridge fills in behind and will move across the western
CONUS through early next week. WAA will increase across the
Southern Plains and temperatures should rise back up to near
normal for mid September.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with light southeast winds becoming variable then pulling
back to the southeast again towards the end of the TAF period.
Wind speeds will be around 5-10kts and with mostly clear skies.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 62 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 61 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 59 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 64 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 60 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 63 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 58 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 59 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 59 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 62 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 62 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 63 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 64 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Key Messages:
- Areas of fog possible again tonight for some
- Higher chances for rain returns this weekend
Tonight...
Area remains along eastern fringes of broad upper ridge that covers
western and central U.S.. Weaker flow through large depth in the
lower atmosphere has led to periods of pesky clouds and bouts of
valley fog, which will continue to be problematic looking at
tonight.
Closer examination of latest RAP guidance suggests not only do mid
level winds begin to increase and deepen, but some evidence that
saturation will again lead to en elevated stratus layer overnight.
This could limit extent of fog overall. Southern and eastern
forecast areas could see at least patchy fog before clouds form and
will have lighter boundary layer winds.
Early Wednesday thru Thursday...
As upper ridge starts to break down on eastern edge, could start to
see some weak waves drop into the area from the northwest but so far
not a strong signal in guidance for bonified precipitation chances.
Will maintain a dry forecast but areas along and north of I-94 stand
better chances albeit risk is still low.
Also been watching amount of smoke approaching from the northern
Rockies. Latest vertically integrated smoke layer from HRRR suggests
some influx to western areas especially, but bulk of layer seems to
rotate around large high and steers to the west and southwest of the
region. Perhaps as westerlies increase as pattern shifts begins,
could see some advection into western Great Lakes at times.
Friday into early next week...
Much stronger signal exists as broad trough starts to dive into the
upper Midwest late in the week. This will certainly drive a front
into the area but there remains timing differences between model
runs. Mean ensemble cluster variability also supports lower
confidence on how quickly rain threat moves in Friday into Saturday,
but certainly pattern shift to cooler and wetter regime seems likely.
As trough deepens over northern tier of states and western Great
Lakes this weekend, also indications that closed low will form which
will linger rain chances well into next week. This will also bring a
cool down in temperatures.
Could see some instability ahead of upper low lead to convection but
lapse rates seem modest at best so confidence in a severe weather
threat is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period with light and variable
due to high pressure system passing overhead. Periods of MVFR/IFR
fog OR MVFR ceilings are possible early tomorrow morning at the
terminals. Model soundings are trending towards a clearer sky
overnight which would favor fog, but some still bring in low stratus
clouds which would prohibit fog from forming. Because trends are
pointing towards fog development, MVFR fog was introduced at both
airports. Further refinement will be necessary overnight as we keep
a close eye on cloud cover observations.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Shea
AVIATION...KAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Nothing weather-wise has changed since the last update. We did
expand the sky grids with smoke in them until 12z, the smoke
should stick through most of Wednesday.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
The smoke from wildfires continues to pollute the air, most if
not all the smoke is staying in the upper levels. Visibility
continues to be 10 miles, just a hazy sky appearance. The HRRR
smoke model has it continuing into Wednesday. No updates were
made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
The entrance of a cold front and smoke have brought cooler
temperatures to North Dakota.
Smoke from fires out west has moved into the region helping keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler. However, no visibility impacts
are expected from the smoke, just hazy skies. Temperatures will
range from the 70 to 80s this afternoon for the northern and
central parts of the state. While the southern portion of the
state will remain warm with high temperatures reaching the mid
90s. Tonight, lows will cool down into the 50s as surface high
pressure move through the eastern half of the state.
A strong high pressure system over the west will shift
northeastward displacing a low-level thermal ridge over eastern
Montana into central South Dakota. As a result temperatures are
forecast to reach 100 degrees over the southwest while the
northwest and south central could hit the upper 90s. The remainder
of the state is going to sit in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Temperatures could be a few degrees cooler depending on the amount
of smoke lofted into the region.
A north south pressure gradient will bring breezy winds across
central and southeastern North Dakota tomorrow. This could lead to
near critical fire weather conditions for south central North
Dakota, however wind and relative humidity could be limiting
factors.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
A pattern change and cooler weather is expected through the long
term.
An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest is expected to
dampen ridging across the Western CONUS. As a result a pacific
cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday causing
temperatures to drop 10 to 15 degrees. Thursday`s high
temperatures could range from the lower 70s over the northwest to
the 90s over the southeast. Thursday afternoon and evening
precipitation is possible (20-50%) along the front, mainly south
of I-94. Rain could linger through Friday as another shortwave
rounds the base of the broad trough moving through the region.
Friday`s temperatures are forecast to sit in the 60s across the
region, 10 degrees below normal. Saturday morning temperatures
could drop into the upper 30s with potential frost for the
northwest. Sunday morning temperatures could drop into the mid 30s
for the southwest bringing another chance for frost. Cooler
temperatures will persist through the weekend as temperatures
remain below normal through Sunday. Weak ridging could build over
the Northern Plains early next week before an active pattern
brings multiple shortwaves into the region. It`s beginning to feel
more like fall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
VFR conditions through the period. Wildfire smoke will continue in
the upper levels into Wednesday. Winds will start to shift to the
south overnight, gusting around 15 knots Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1017 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Steady rain will taper off from northeast to southwest through the
first part of the evening, but a few spot showers will remain
possible into Wednesday. High pressure builds over the region
Thursday, and persists through this weekend with dry weather and
normal to slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Mainly some minor tweaks to rainfall chances overnight. Last few
runs of both the HRRR and RAP appeared to have good handle on
precipitation based on regional radar data. Mainly light spotty
showers or drizzle through most of the overnight. Temperature
forecast still looked reasonable.
740 PM Update...
Forecast remains largely on track. Made some slight adjustments
to the PoPs to reflect the widespread nature of light showers or
drizzle. Showers should gradually come to an end from north to
south overnight as high pressure builds in. But low pressure off
the Jersey coast will reinforce the onshore flow and keep the
low-level moist with the chance for spotty drizzle or light
showers. Temps will not fall much tonight, bottoming out in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Previous Discussion...
* Steady rain tapers off during the first half of the evening
Low pressure will exit the south Jersey coast early this evening and
drop further southeast tonight. At the same time...high pressure
over Maine will nose southward. This will bring an end to most of
the widespread rain from northeast to southwest during the first
half of the evening; as somewhat drier mid-level air continues
to work in from the north. However, weak mid level low pressure
to our south will help to generate moist low level onshore flow.
This will result in lingering low clouds, a few spot showers
and perhaps some spotty drizzle/fog patches overnight. So while
much of the later evening and overnight hours will turn out dry;
a few spot showers and perhaps some spotty drizzle will remain
possible. Overnight low temps will bottom out mainly in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...
High pressure across northern New England will combined with low
pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. This will
continue to generate a low level onshore ENE flow of air into
the region. This will keep skies rather cloudy on Wednesday, but
perhaps we see a few breaks develop late in the afternoon/early
evening across northern MA as somewhat drier air tries to work
into the region. While most of the day will feature dry weather
in a given location; a few spot showers will also be possible
mainly across eastern CT/RI and SE MA where moisture will be bit
deeper. That being said; even in these locations dry weather
will dominate the vast majority of the time. High temps will
mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Wednesday night...
Drier low level air continues to slowly work in from the north from
a high pressure system in northern New England. This should result
in partial clearing at least northwest of I-95 by daybreak Thursday.
Dry weather expected across much of the region, but may have a band
of showers approach the south coast, Cape and Islands. This will
depend upon northwest extent of the low level circulation from the
distant offshore low pressure system. Overnight low temps will
mainly be in the 50s to near 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights
* Some spotty rain showers may linger across portions of the
Cape/Islands Thursday, but no washouts.
* Mainly dry and quiet weather for the rest of the week with high
pressure in control with a warming trend into the weekend.
* Turning more unsettled early next week.
Thursday into Friday...
A shortwave trough will cross New England on Thursday, helping to
push the frontal boundary that has been stalled near the Mid
Atlantic coast further offshore. Further to the south, distant Earl
should start turning northeastward after moving close to Bermuda.
While this would help maintain the low-level northeast flow for our
area through Friday, model sounding cross section indicates a
gradual drying of the 925-700mb levels. This should allow for a mix
of sun and clouds especially away from the immediate south coast.
With 925mb temps +14 to +17C, highs should top out mainly in the mid
70s, except upper 70s across the CT valley on both Thursday and
Friday.
Saturday into Sunday...
H5 ridge builds into New England this weekend. With surface high
pressure in control and 925mb temps +18 to +20C, expect mainly dry
weather and near seasonable highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
through the weekend.
Monday into Tuesday...
Models indicate a H5 low closing off over the Great Lakes and moving
into the Ohio valley. Low level flow turns south to southwest and
there would be an increasing chance for unsettled weather early next
week. Given the model uncertainty and that we are more than five
days out, mainly stuck to blended guidance for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Spotty showers or drizzle
expected. MVFR-IFR ceilings dominate, with some patchy fog
possible too. Lowest visibility generally across the higher
terrain of the Worcester Hills and towards the east slopes of
the Berkshires. NE winds 5-10 knots.
Wednesday...Moderate Confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions early in
the morning will tend to improve to mainly MVFR-VFR
thresholds as the day wears along from north to south. Specific
timing a bit uncertain, but improvement should occur from
the north as drier air gradually presses into the region. A few
spot showers and drizzle will remain possible mainly across
southeast New England, but the vast majority of the day will be
dry in a given location. NE winds 5-15 knots.
Wednesday night...High Confidence. Remaining lower ceilings will
tend to improve to mainly VFR during the evening/overnight hours
as drier air continues to advect in from the north. A few
showers still possible across the southeast New England coast.
NE winds 5-10 knots.
KBOS Terminal..Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.
High pressure over northern New England coupled with low
pressure emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast will generate a
continued NE flow of air right through Wed night. Have hoisted
SCA headlines for our southern outer-waters where we expect 3-5
foot seas and NE wind gusts up to 25 knots tonight into Wed
night. It will be marginal for some of our western and southern
sounds, but some marginal 25 knot NE wind gusts are possible on
Wednesday. Later shifts may have to consider expanding the small
craft headlines a bit further northwest as it will be a close
call.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.
Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/Chai
NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank/Chai
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Chai
MARINE...Frank/Chai
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
622 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Up until about 1 PM this afternoon, the majority of the moderate to
heavy rainfall today has fallen just off the coast, over the Gulf
waters. Latest model run of the HRRR has some convection developing
across the region, but keeps the concentration of activity mainly
across the Northern Ranchlands and the western half of the RGV
through about sunset before activity dwindles. Convection that does
develop and holds together today will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall, per the 2.21 inches of precipitable water value in
this morning`s BRO RAOB.
The mid/upper-level trough and its axis responsible for this
unsettled weather will gradually be shifting eastward tonight and
through the day Wednesday as strong mid-level ridging continues to
build over the Great Basin region. Despite this, rain chances still
don`t completely go away. Reasoning is that deterministic models show
a shortwave trough, embedded on the backside of the main trough
axis, digging south and moving through southeast Texas Wednesday
afternoon and evening. This will maintain isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, especially across the
coastal counties and the Gulf waters, through Wednesday evening.
PWATs will remain above 2.0 inches through much of Wednesday
afternoon, then decrease to about 1.4-1.6 inches after sunset.
Therefore, once again, rainfall may be heavy or very heavy at times.
Rain chances will subside by or just after sunset Wednesday.
Winds will continue to fairly light and variable through the short-
term, generally out of the east or east-northeast during the
daytime. As for temperatures, thick cloud cover and rain chances
will help keep daytime temperatures well below the seasonal averages,
with highs reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s Wednesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, lows will remain around average, mid-upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
A mid/upper level trough draped across the Mid-Atlantic into the
Lower Mississippi Valley along with deep layer moisture in place
over Deep South Texas will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast, especially in the afternoon, on
Thursday. As this trough and its axis continues to slowly drift
eastward, it becomes a cut off low late Thursday over the Gulf of
Mexico/southern Louisiana. Northwesterly flow on the backside of
the low will allow drier air to filter into the region. This will
allow for decreasing rain chances through Saturday, though some
isolated sea breeze activity will still be possible. By Sunday,
the aforementioned low begins to lift northward allowing moisture
to once again stream back into the area and thus slightly increase
chances for precipitation through the remainder of the period,
especially over the Gulf waters and coastal counties. Winds will
remain light through the period as the surface pressure gradient
remains weak. Temperatures will rebound just a bit through the
week, but still likely stay just shy of seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Leftover light rain from dying convection will affect the
aerodromes through the next few hours. A TEMPO has been added to
the current issuance of TAFs for additioanl convection on
Wednesday, but confidence in the timing is low. Overall, VFR will
prevail through the next 24 hours with generally light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
(Now through Wednesday night)
Buoy 42020 reported east-northeast winds around 14 knots with seas
slightly around 2 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1240 CDT/1740
UTC. Favorable marine conditions, with light winds and low seas,
will prevail along the lower Texas coast as a weak pressure gradient
remains in place. An upper-level disturbance and tropical moisture
will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the coastal waters through Wednesday night.
Occasional to frequent cloud to water lightning, gusty winds, heavy
to torrential rainfall, and locally higher seas are all possible
near any convection.
Thursday through Monday...A weak surface pressure gradient
will keep winds light and seas at about 1 to 2 feet for the
period. There will continue to be some chances of showers and
thunderstorms, especially Thursday and then again next week,
which could lead to localized elevated winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 76 88 75 93 / 60 70 10 30
HARLINGEN 73 88 72 91 / 50 60 10 30
MCALLEN 75 90 74 95 / 40 50 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 91 73 95 / 30 30 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 77 87 / 60 50 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 88 73 89 / 50 50 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
725 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated the hourly temperature and sky forecast tonight to latest
model data. Also added haze through Wednesday night based on
vertically integrated smoke forecast from the HRRR model. Rest of
forecast unchanged. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM
MDT to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for much of the area. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect from noon MDT Wednesday to midnight MDT
Wednesday night for critical fire weather conditions. RMS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday Night...
Wednesday is a critical fire weather day and very hot which could
be dangerous for those engaged in outdoor activities during the
afternoon. Record temperatures expected. Late afternoon and
evening thunderstorms could bring an enhanced fire threat.
Tonight upper level ridging begins building over the region and
high pressure over the Dakotas slides further east allowing low
level winds to become southerly. Will be dry overnight and
relatively smoke free at the surface though plenty of smoke aloft
moving over the area from fires over western MT/ID and northeast
Oregon.
594DM 500MB heights along the Montana Wyoming border indicative of
the heat in the airmass which will bring record temperatures on
Wednesday. Shortwave moving into northwest Montana will bring
breaking down the ridge which allows compressional warming and
deep mixing and momentum transfer to become factors during the
afternoon hours. This means temperatures will be 100+ for many
areas and could set all time September records and latest 100s in
the season for a few locations. One more day of heat safety
concerns before the season relents.
Humidity will be near 10 percent and wind gusts along the
foothills could be reaching 30 mph and 20 mph gusts possible in
lower elevations. This combination with recent fuels drying will
put Red Flag conditions in place across the area. There is
moisture being pulled into the area aloft by the shortwave so hi
based thunderstorms are possible as well which could produce dry
lightning and wind gusts to 60 mph. Tomorrow is heads up for
quickly developing situation on the fire weather front.
Speaking of fronts...a welcome cool down will move in late
Wednesday night and a dramatic change to cloudy, cooler, and
decent chances for precipitation arrives Thursday. Jet energy
transitions from a right entrance region Thursday morning to a
left exit region Thursday evening and with flow aloft becoming
more cyclonic...a prolonged period of lift will moisten the
atmosphere and give a chance for precipitation to hit the ground.
One more weather element to consider is that Wednesday is going
to be a major burn day upstream, so some of that smoke could be
wrapped into the post frontal airmass so Thursday morning could be
pretty murky. borsum
Friday through Tuesday...
Friday continues to look like considerable shift in the weather
compared to the last several weeks. A sharper wave will move in
quickly behind the broad upper trough across the Northern Rockies
and southern Canada. This will bring in more energy across the
area. There will also be a favorable jet positioned over the area.
This will help provide some good broad scale lift. Precipitable
water values will increase, 0.75 to 1.00 inches, will support some
decent rainfall totals, especially down around along
Montana/Wyoming stateline. The temperatures at 850 mb will fall
into the single digits, and fall below 0c at 700 mb. This will
result some snowfall at the highest peaks. This could impact the
Beartooth Pass and US-14 in the Bighorns.
Going into the weekend the temperatures will increasing, slowly.
Sunday will still be in the 60s for much of the area, but by
Sunday temperatures will be back into the mid 80s. Reimer
&&
.AVIATION...
Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce slant range visibility
across the region. Surface visibilities should remain at or above
6SM. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will keep the region
mostly clear and dry over the next 18 hours. Expect increasing
cloud cover and some shower development towards 18Z. Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/102 065/079 050/060 043/066 044/081 051/086 053/082
01/T 36/W 65/W 41/U 10/U 00/U 11/B
LVM 057/101 055/081 041/063 035/069 037/085 046/087 048/080
01/T 35/T 44/T 31/U 10/U 11/U 12/T
HDN 055/104 062/081 047/062 039/067 039/081 045/087 048/084
01/G 35/W 65/W 41/U 11/U 00/U 11/B
MLS 057/104 067/080 050/064 042/066 043/077 047/085 052/083
00/G 23/W 45/W 31/U 10/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 059/104 068/083 049/060 043/064 042/076 047/083 050/082
00/G 13/W 66/T 52/W 10/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 057/101 066/079 049/063 041/064 041/074 046/082 049/081
00/G 13/W 45/W 32/W 10/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 058/103 061/084 044/058 039/063 038/078 045/085 050/083
00/G 15/T 77/T 63/W 11/U 00/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169>173-228-235.
Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to midnight
MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday FOR
ZONE 199.
Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to midnight
MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 274-284.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1048 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Temperatures continue to increase through the middle of the week.
2. Extensive upper smoke plume likely to move through into Wednesday.
3. High fire weather likely Thursday, with gusty winds.
THIS AFTERNOON: A light southeasterly surface wind continues this
afternoon with a weak surface pressure ridge west of the James River
valley. Highs continue to rise into the middle up upper 80s, with
highs in the 90s into south central South Dakota. The other item of
note is an extensive smoke plume aloft, with the most dense smoke
across the western half of the Dakotas this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Based on HRRR smoke trajectories, thick smoke will
overspread the Tri-State area overnight, and while they`ll create a
very red sunset, they may have an impact on overnight low
temperatures. Currently, have kept low temperatures into the upper
50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl heights continue to rise on Wednesday, with
even warmer 850mb temperatures advecting into the Plains. Winds
will be fairly light in the morning hours, gradually increasing in
the afternoon as the SPG increases over areas west of the James
river. The unknown on Wednesday along with Thursday will be the
impact of smoke on high temperatures. Light mixing days may see
more of an impact than deeper/stronger mixing days, so have held
back on any increase at this time. Fire weather could be slightly
elevated in south central SD on Wednesday, but the light winds
will help trap some of the existing surface moisture in the area
and hold dew points into the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
THURSDAY: The most impactful weather of the week will take place on
Thursday. Mid-lvl heights continue to build and spread eastward on
Thursday, meanwhile 850 troughing increases over the western High
Plains by Thursday morning. What results is an eastward shift in
the thermal ridge and increase in western troughing, resulting in
much stronger and focused southwesterly surface winds across the
Tri- State area. Latest guidance suggests 850 mb temperature
anomalies greater than 15C moving through the region and when
looking at sounding climatology from ABR/LBF, this may run past
the 90th percentile and towards the daily max recorded for the
date.
After a warm overnight, we should see temperatures jump quickly
into the 90s and perhaps 100s in portions of the CWA west of the
James River. The unknown variable will be the impact of the smoke
at the high levels and it`s potential to slow warming much like a
very thick cirrus plume. Looking at today`s trend in NW South
Dakota suggests that model data has actually cooled a few degrees
from the weekend based on bringing in interpolated cloud cover.
However, if the smoke is thinner, the deeper mixing could just
compensate and still push temperatures even warmer. The resultant
mix down of very dry air resulting in RH values 20-30%, winds
gusts over 30 mph, and dry fuels pushed by drought conditions will
lead to very high or perhaps critical values over portions of the
Dakotas Thursday afternoon.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A frontal boundary continues to push southeast
through the Tri-State area a bit faster on today`s model runs. This
will bring temperature relief quickly by Thursday night with the
potential for post-frontal showers and thunderstorms moving
southeast into Friday morning. Medium range models continue to
oscillate back and forth with the potential for post frontal rain
into the upcoming weekend. The GFS ensemble remains much less
bullish on rain probabilities than the ECMWF/GEM and the
deterministic models also support this concept. As alluded to in
previous discussions, this won`t be a drought busting rain, but
could provide light amounts in the region. High temperatures both
Friday and Saturday will be much cooler than the middle of the
week, with guidance suggesting 70s.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Confidence lowers slightly into next week, though
models continue to hint that energy moving through Friday, will
eventually develop into an upper low as it moves to the east and
southeast by Sunday/Monday. At this point however, it looks like
development may take place far enough to the east that it won`t
have a major impact on the area, keeping temperatures near normal
levels and maintaining dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, aside
from a chance for shallow valley fog near sunrise. Light and
variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds turn southerly
Wednesday morning and strengthen Wednesday afternoon.
Wildfire smoke will stream in from the Pacific Northwest through
Wednesday so maintained a high based scattered group. Smoke is
not expected to mix down to the surface tonight or Wednesday.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...BP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
-- Quiet through Friday --
The upper low that has been providing cooler than normal
temperatures and primarily overcast skies is finally in the
process of being booted out of the Ohio Valley region. High
pressure settles in through late week and this will give us quite
a bit of sunshine Wednesday through Friday. Along with 850 mb
temperatures moderating from 11C today to 17C by Friday, this will
help boost daytime temperatures back into the 80s.
Otherwise, we`ll be monitoring two periods for possible fog
development: late tonight / early Wednesday and then again late
Wednesday night / early Thursday. The threat tonight does not look
substantial based on the 12z HRRR and a blend of both high
resolution and medium range guidance. We may just have minor
visibility obstruction except for areas that drop lower in
temperature, such as interior Central Lower Michigan, thus
lessening the dewpoint depression coincident with little to no
wind. With the surface high centered over Michigan Wednesday night
into Thursday, we may have a better shot at getting more
widespread fog development.
-- Potentially Wet Pattern Beginning late Saturday --
A complex pattern evolves by late in the weekend across the
Midwest and Great Lakes region. A dominant upper high across the
western U.S. early this week looks to be flattened by upper
troughing across the northern Plains by late week. This trough
will be advancing toward the Great Lakes region. At the same
time, upper heights looks to build across the eastern U.S.
Additionally, the ECE ensemble mean 500 mb plot shows good
ensemble agreement regarding a closed low centered near Louisiana
from mid to late week that will likely get lifted north and
absorbed with the upper trough that is attempting to make eastward
progress. However, progress may be halted somewhere over the
Midwest or Great Lakes by the weekend because of the strengthening
eastern U.S. ridge. This may lead to a closed upper low somewhere
in our region and these are notoriously difficult to pinpoint
several days out both in terms of geographic location and duration
of impact. Another plausible solution is that the southern upper
low gets absorbed by the trough and it propagates quicker to the
east.
Both deterministic and ensemble solutions do support an advection
of higher than normal precipitable water values into the region
(1.25"-1.50") late in the weekend. The 12z GEFS and CMC ensembles
are fairly quick to advect in and then boot out the richer
moisture. The 12z ECE is slower, likely because several of its
members close off the upper low and a surface low development
occurs. With this outcome, ensemble members do support 1" or more
of rain with some indication for 2"-4" wherever the low closes
off. It is still too early to say a) if this evolution will occur
and b) if it will happen over Michigan.
The bottom line is there is a risk for an extended rainfall event
beginning Saturday night or Sunday and lasting into early next
week depending on how this evolves.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Skies are clearing with VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the TAF period. There could some brief shallow fog that might
bring some reduction in visibility around sunrise Wednesday, but
not confident enough to introduce change in flight category at
this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
With an advancing area of high pressure moving into the region,
winds will pick up out of the north on Wednesday and this will
help build waves into the 1 to 2 foot range, possibly a bit higher
south of Holland where some waves to 3 feet are not out of the
question.
By Friday winds will increase from the south and waves could
build into the 2 to 4 foot range near and north of Muskegon.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Maczko
MARINE...Hoving
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
719 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Dry weather is expected for the rest of the work week. The next
chance for rain will be late Saturday. High temperatures will
rise into the eighties late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
The upper low is currently centered over northwest Ohio, but most
of the convective activity associated with is is well south where
there is better moisture. Still, can`t rule out an isolated shower
or thunderstorm locally this afternoon/evening. Breaks in this
morning`s cloud cover have allowed a decent cumulus field to
develop, and the HRRR and 4km Nam do indicate a few pop-ups over
north central Indiana, mainly after 5 pm. However, with confidence
low, I kept the forecast mostly dry expect for a slight chance
south of US 30.
The low rotates away from the region tonight and high pressure
builds in for Wednesday, squashing precipitation chances. There
may again be some patchy fog overnight with partially clear skies
and light winds. With northerly flow both at the surface and
aloft, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the mid
to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
High pressure will continue to build over the midwest on Thursday
and, and then shift east towards the mid-Atlantic on Friday. The
resulting subsidence will keep the area dry and push daytime highs
into the low 80s going into the weekend. The ridge will move
offshore on Saturday as a robust trough dives down from the
northwest and a closed low moves up from the Gulf. This low could
bring showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening before the cold
front arrives with more rain on Sunday. The second low is then
forecast to linger over the region through Tuesday with showers
continuing. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s during
this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
The only significant change to the TAFs with this issuance was to
introduce TEMPO 3SM BR for KFWA. With high pressure moving in,
skies clearing, temperatures on pace to hit the cross-over
temperature, and the September climatology, some patchy BR/FG is
likely. This is less of an issue at KSBN where conditions have
been notably dry over the past few weeks. Wind remains northerly
on Wednesday afternoon, but increasing toward 10 KTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cobb/Brown
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...Brown
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
There are several concerns in the short term forecast, first is
the high temperatures for Wednesday, smoke tonight into Wednesday,
and fire weather concerns.
For temperatures tomorrow, kept our western CWA similar to highs we
had today, WAA in combination with very warm 850mb temps around 26
to 30 degrees will mix to upper 90s to 100s at the sfc. For areas
across our eastern CWA, kept temperatures a few degrees colder. 850
temps will be slightly cooler, around 20 to 22 degrees and it will
be on the eastern fringe of the WAA, giving temps at the sfc in the
mid to upper 90s. There is also some concern that elevated smoke
could have some impact on temperatures, mainly across north
central Nebraska, however at this time confidence is low, as
there is some uncertainty in how much smoke will inhibit daytime.
As for the smoke, looking at the HRRR vertically integrated smoke,
sfc smoke and 1000ft smoke, there will be an increase in filtration
across the CWA. Thus confidence has increased that some smoke will
settle in at the sfc and could impact visibility, mainly across the
northwest Sandhills and have added the mention of smoke to the
forecast. Other locations across western Nebraska may see some haze
at the sfc, however impact to visibility is not expected to be
less than 6 statue miles, and have included the mention of haze to
account for this. The increase in vertically integrated smoke
across Sandhills and north central Nebraska may result in some
elevated smoke and have added an increase in sky coverage to
account for this. There is some concern there could be some patchy
fog overnight with the combination of smoke particulates in the
air, adequate moisture at the sfc along and very light winds,
could result in brief patchy fog in the morning, mainly along the
river valley.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
The biggest concern in the long term will be temperatures on
Thursday, fire weather concerns, which more info can be read below
in the fire weather portion of the discussion, along with
precipitation chance Thursday night, then a weather pattern
change after Thursday.
Thursday will be the last warm day with temperatures reaching the
upper 90s to low 100s, with even some record potentials possible.
A cold front will then pass through beginning Thursday evening
with the potential for some thunderstorms to develop along the
boundary, mainly across northern Nebraska.
As the ridge breaks down there will be a shift in the pattern and
a much cooler pattern sets up for the weekend. Highs on Friday
will only be in the 70s to low 80s. Another chance of
thunderstorms will be possible late Friday into Saturday and even
cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with highs only in
the low 60s. An upper level high begins to build in across the
western CONUS bringing warmer temperatures back into the picture
Tuesday with highs reaching the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
VFR conditions will persist across western and north central
Nebraska the next 24 hours.
Atmospheric smoke from forest fires in Idaho and Montana will
remain over the area overnight and into Wednesday, but is not
expected to cause a reduction to visibility or other impacts to
aviation.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Fire weather concerns will remain elevated into this evening and
again for Wednesday. Min RH will be in the teens across western
Nebraska and in the 20s across fire weather zones 209, 206 and
208. This is combination with very warm temperatures will lead to
elevated concerns. Winds will be out of the southeast around 10 to
15 mph.
Thursday will be near critical to critical for fire weather
concerns. Highs will once again be well above normal with some
record breaking temperatures expected as highs reach the upper 90s
to low 100s. Min RH will be in the teens across western Nebraska
and the Sandhills and in the 20s across north central Nebraska.
Winds will be breezier than Wednesday and will be just on the cusp
of critical fire weather criteria. The stronger winds will
generally be across north central Nebraska around 15 to 20 mph
with the potential for some gust above 25 mph. Across western
Nebraska where lowest RH will exist sustained winds will range
from 10 to 15 mph a few locations could be stronger, with gust
above 20 mph. There is still some uncertainty on exactly the
strongest winds will set up, as there has been a shift of stronger
winds northeastward. There is also the concern with a wind shift
to the north as the front passes which is expected to be in the
evening hours along with the potential for some thunderstorms,
mainly across the northern Sandhills, where there could be
potential for frequent lightning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
958 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Areas of fog continue to be likely tonight, especially across
northern counties of TN and into VA where less high clouds are
expected. For Wednesday, PoPs continue to trend down, especially
north of Interstate 40. The current 00z RAP indicates that the
500mb trough axis will be oriented from SW to NE through SE TN
and the East Tennessee mountain foothills by 18z Wednesday. With
subsidence west of this axis where northerly upper flow will
prevail, the main chances of afternoon rain will be across SE TN,
SW NC, and along the mountains near the TN/NC state line.
Northerly low-level flow and subsidence will result in an
increasingly dry airmass through Wednesday afternoon with lowest
chances of rain across the NW portions of the forecast area near
the KY state line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Key Messages:
1. Showers decrease tonight and patchy/areas of fog is expected
areawide.
2. Additional showers and storms tomorrow as an upper trough
passes through the area.
Discussion:
A few scattered showers and storms will be around this afternoon
and evening as an upper trough approaches our area. Bumped up
POPs slightly for this timeframe compared to what was previously
forecast. Main area of focus is along the southern Cumberland
Plateau as a line of convection approaches this area from out of
southern Middle TN. If this line holds together, expect brief
heavy rainfall and gusty sub-severe winds. Precip coverage will
lessen during the overnight hours as we lose daytime heating but
will keep some slight chance POPs in across some areas. Model
guidance continues to be bullish on fog overnight so will include
patchy/areas of fog across the CWA.
For tomorrow, upper trough begins to slide to our east as upper
ridging across the western U.S. becomes stronger and expands
eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be around
through much of the day. However, we begin to dry out late in the
day across our northern areas as we get on the backside of the
trough as drier air filters in from the north.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Key Messages:
1. An unsettled weather pattern through long term with chances of
showers and thunderstorms each day. Isolated flooding could occur
over areas that receive multiple days of rainfall.
2. Maximum temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal
with lows near normal to slightly above normal due to cloud cover.
Discussion:
On Thursday the frontal boundary will be draped across the Atlantic
towards the Gulf Coast with mid level troughing across the eastern
portion of the United States. Thursday into Friday will likely be
the driest periods of the long term forecast as most of the
precipitation sticks closer to the frontal boundary east of the
mountains. There is a slight chance for precipitation Thursday
afternoon along the mountains, and these storms could possibly roll
off them and into the valley, but expect most of the convection to
stick east of the Appalachians.
Better rain chances will return over the weekend as the cut off low
develops and strengthens over the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will
slowly move northeastward over the weekend providing widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the southeast United States Saturday
and into Sunday. Expect fairly consistent light to moderate rainfall
Saturday and Sunday with increasing chances for thunderstorms as we
move into the afternoon and early evening hours, during peak
heating. QPF amounts through the weekend and into Monday are between
1-2 inches across the area with the highest amounts along the higher
terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and especially in the southern
Appalachian mountains. There will be locally higher amounts, with
some places possibly seeing multiple rounds of moderate rain, so
isolated flooding, especially along the mountains is the most likely
impactful weather over the weekend and into next week.
The closed low/trough will eventually get absorbed/overtaken by a
deep low moving across the northern plains towards the Great Lakes
during the middle of the week. At this time most models show that
this will push through a frontal boundary Monday into Tuesday, with
mostly dry conditions returning to the region by Tuesday. There is
the possibility of wrap around precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday,
depending on the location of the low... but at this time will carry
a dry forecast for most of Tuesday and into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage tonight with
IFR fog and low clouds expected late tonight and Wednesday
morning, especially at TRI and TYS where IFR and LIFR vis/cigs are
forecast. More uncertainty exists for impacts at CHA, but expect
some impactful fog and low clouds within the vicinity of the
terminal. Fog and low clouds will improve to VFR conditions by
mid-day Wednesday with drier air bringing a drier and clearer
trend by late in the forecast period. Winds remain light through
the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 65 84 / 20 40 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 83 63 84 / 30 40 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 63 84 / 30 30 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 80 61 82 / 20 40 10 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....ABM
AVIATION...JB
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Quiet weather for the next few days with warm and borderline hot
temperatures. There is some smoke aloft across the mid CONUS as
noted on Geocolor satellite imagery, and the HRRR smoke model
indicates this smoke aloft could become more prevalent over our
area through Wednesday night. Really not expecting any surface
smoke in our coverage area, just most of a hazy sky appearance.
After low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 60s, we`ll see
afternoon highs again Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday will also see similar temperatures. We`ll also see
stronger southerly winds in the 15 to 25 knot range. And while
surface RH st still 30-35%, the increased winds will create areas
of high to very high rangeland fire danger and mostly across
eastern NE.
We will see a cold front settle into northeast Nebraska Thursday
night. This front will bring a chance of showers and isolated
storms, but it will also mark a notable air mass shift. High temps
Friday near the NE/SD border range in the upper 70s, but still
near 90 along/south of Interstate 80.
The cooler air really overspreads the region through the weekend
as a strong closed upper trough moves through the Midwest. This
will bring a rather coolish, rainy day on Saturday with
northeasterly winds. The chance of rain has now increase to
40-60%, and with potential QPF amounts one quarter to one half
inch, although the GFS would suggest higher amounts. We
desperately need the moisture. NBM holds onto shower chances into
Sunday, but new 12z models are quicker to move the rain out. So
while Saturday looks pretty wet, odds are favoring at least a
drier end to the weekend, but still on the cooler side in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Monday and Tuesday also look dry with a slight warming trend with
highs back into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Have seen some cumulus clouds this afternoon between KOMA and KLNK
this afternoon, those should decrease the next hour or two.
Otherwise mainly just some smoke aloft is expected over the area.
The height is probably between FL100 and FL150. Winds will
decrease to under 10 knots by sunset, then increase to 10 knots or
so (possibly some gusts 13-18 knots at KOFK) for Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Key Message:
1) Record high temperatures possible tomorrow afternoon with smoke
lofted in the mid to upper levels.
Near record temperatures have been recorded this afternoon, but the
previous records were quite high, therefore we have not tied or
broke any record high temperatures today (so far). Showers and
thunderstorms have been isolated at best and mainly over the
Continental Divide. Smoke is in the atmosphere, but primarily in the
mid to upper levels, which is representative with the HRRR Smoke
model guidance. The thickness at the surface was not enough to
prompt the weather grids to include patchy smoke.
Tomorrow is much like today, hot temperatures and smoke lofted in
the mid-to-upper troposphere. Near record temperatures are expected
once again tomorrow - here is a table:
Alamosa - Record: 87F in 2021...Forecast: 87F
Colorado Springs - Record: 92F in 1959...Forecast: 92F
Pueblo - Record: 100F in 2002...Forecast: 100F
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Continental
Divide, once again, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
Key Messages:
1. Frontal passage will bring significantly cooler temperatures
Saturday and Sunday.
2. Rain chances increase in the mountains and along the I-25
corridor with frontal passage this weekend.
Thursday - Saturday
High pressure ridge will continue to dominate the area from Thursday
into Friday, bringing hotter temperatures, especially in the plains.
Late Friday, a large trough of low pressure will encroach on the
area. This will set the stage for a frontal passage late Friday that
will bring cooler temperatures, which will turn much cooler with a
secondary frontal passage on Saturday with highs in the 60`s and
70`s in the plains and 50`s and 60`s in the mountains and mountain
valleys. As Hurricane Kay makes its way up the Baja California
coast, this could provide some moisture in our area, and the
resulting easterly winds from the frontal passage may provide the
proper ingredients to develop rain showers in the mountains out to
the I-25 corridor and maybe a little eastward. Thunderstorm
development is questionable as models show capping in the area,
limiting the precipitation to more of a stratiform nature, but a
stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out within the county warning
area. In the mountains and mountain valleys, the effects of the
cold front may be shielded by the mountains and may have little
effect in these areas.
Sunday through the next work week
After the weekend`s frontal passage and cooler temperatures, some
models are showing another ridge of high pressure to start building
over Utah and Colorado bringing hotter and drier conditions
throughout the next work week, which may eventually dry the fuels in
the mountains and the plains and bring about isolated fire weather
concerns, though lingering moisture could bring isolated rain and
thunderstorms to the mountains and plains during this time.
Currently the models are not in agreement on how this will
materialize so confidence is not high on either scenario.
-Riser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022
VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the
forecast period. Diurnal winds are expected, with some gusty winds
during the afternoon tomorrow.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...RISER
AVIATION...SKELLY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
323 PM PDT Tue Sep 6 2022
.Synopsis...
An extended period of dangerous heat will persist this week.
Monsoon moisture will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the northern Sierra Nevada. A more significant moisture surge is
possible over the weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
As shown on satellite, the early morning mid-level clouds and
virga have mostly moved north and out of the region. Cumulus
clouds continue to develop along the central Sierra, where some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.
Main story continues to be the significant heatwave we`re
currently in the thick of. Surface temperatures have increased
some compared to 24 hours ago, and are currently ~2-5 degrees F
warmer than those observed yesterday across the region. Today is
expected to be the warmest day in the forecast, with Thursday
running only a few degrees `cooler.`
Some mid-level moisture rotating around the periphery of the high
pressure will continue to keep isolated shower or thunderstorm
chances in the forecast for the Sierra-Nevada through the rest of
the week. The latest and previous several runs of the HRRR have
been highlighting the potential for some breezy outflow winds from
showers/t-storms along the Sierra crest this afternoon/evening.
These outflows could send gusty around 25 mph westward, primarily
only reaching the eastern fringes of the higher elevations south
of I-80. Considering only the HRRR out of the CAMs and the HREF
max ensemble wind gusts have been the only things highlighting
this, confidence is low.
With continued presence of mid-level moisture rotating around the
periphery of the high pressure coupled with enhanced lift from a
low pressure system moving through the PacNW Wednesday, some
increased moisture is expected across northern CA. Moisture is
sparse and shallow, remaining confined to ~200 mb between
650-450mb Wednesday. With very limited instability (50-100 J/kg),
not anticipating anything more than some isolated showers and
thunderstorms early morning through afternoon Wednesday across
northwestern Shasta County. However, if a storm does develop, with
very dry low levels, locally gusty winds and a stray dry
lightning strike may be possible.
With some increased cloud cover, and subtly weakened heights
aloft due to the passing trough to the north, Wednesday`s
afternoon temperatures will be `cooler` a few degrees than those
expected Tuesday. though, considering how warm Today`s afternoon
temperatures will be coupled with increased cloud cover, minimum
temperatures Wednesday morning will likely be record breaking.
Temperatures will quickly rebound to significantly above normal
Thursday and Friday and the high pressure center shifts overhead.
The latest forecast increased for Friday, which increased the heat
risk for the valley and foothills to very high. As a result, the
Excessive Heat Warning through 8PM PDT Friday.
-Peters
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Monday)...
The next big weather feature to keep an eye out for is Hurricane
Kay. Kay is currently forecast to become a Tropical Storm
Saturday afternoon off the SoCal coast. The main impact this
system would potentially bring is increased moisture across the
region sometime this weekend. Confidence is still very low at this
point on timing and how much instability will accompany the deep
moisture surge, but at a minimum, we`re expecting increased cloud
cover this weekend, which will decrease apparent temperatures.
Currently, the forecast is calling for about a 5-10 degree
temperature decrease from Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
With an additional 5+ degree temperature decrease for Sunday
afternoon. At this point, moisture will linger through early next
week, continuing to keep at least some clouds in the forecast and
temperatures near seasonal normal.
-Peters &&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Isolated
showers or thunderstorms possible over the Sierra south of I-80
through 03z-06z Wednesday. Surface wind mainly below 12 knots
except local gusts up to 25 knots near the Delta after 00z
Wednesday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Carquinez
Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
Southern Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$