Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/07/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Updated for isolated gusty and mostly dry showers and thunderstorms moving from southwest CO into northwest NM this evening. Expect this activity will be done by midnight if not sooner although HRRR and RAP don`t have it at all. Updated ZFP just issued. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure keeps rain chances low for much of the workweek. The next rain chances come this weekend as a trough dives down into the Rockies, pulling a front into the CWA by Saturday. Temperatures will remain above average for much of this week thanks to high pressure over the area. A slight cooldown is expected this weekend associated with rain and clouds moving into the state. && .SHORT TERM... This evening through Wednesday night Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A sprawling monsoon high remains anchored over UT today, forecast to move little between tonight and Wednesday night, will continue to result in dry and hot weather for early September over the next couple of days. Weather prediction models agree that pressure heights will begin falling over UT and western CO late-day Wednesday into Wednesday night, signaling a gradual end to the anomalous heat bubble. The relatively dry air across much of the higher elevations of northern and central NM will likely result in large diurnal temperatures differences with Angel Fire and much of the Moreno Valley dropping to near freezing by sunup Wednesday. Diffuse smoke from the wildfires to the west and north of NM will continue to move in from the east and northeast resulting in some haze and little else. && .LONG TERM... Thursday through Monday Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Calm and dry conditions are expected to begin the period as high pressure, centered to the NW of the state, continues to drive the weather pattern. This pattern will likely change heading into this weekend as a trough dives down from Canada making its way through the Rockies and Northern Plains. This trough will likely pull a front across the state increasing PoPs for this weekend into early next week. The highest rain chances will be for higher elevations, however, most locations across the state could see rainfall by early next week as widespread rain becomes possible by Sunday into Monday morning. With Hurricane Kay off the coast of Mexico, there is always a chance...depending on steering flow, that tropical moisture could make its way into portions of NM. Current model guidances brings Kay into the central part of the Baja Peninsula before sending it west, away from the area. No impacts from Kay are expected at this time for the CWA but the storm will continue to be monitored for changes to track and/or intensity. Temperatures are expected to be the warmest Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will then drop some associated with rain and clouds from the system this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Upper high centered across the Great Basin and CO. Any isold convection with gusty outflow winds to move sw out of swrn CO and into nw NM before 06Z. Isold convection to redevelop over swrn CO aft 07/19Z and again impact nw NM. Haze due to PacNW wildfire smoke may become more noticeable over ern and portions of srn NM as the smoke circulates around the upper high center. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Monsoon high continues over UT through Thursday before slowly weakening Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are forecast to gradually cool day by day from Friday through early next week. Thunderstorms will return to the forecast Friday and especially Saturday as a backdoor cold front moves in bringing low level moisture back into NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 95 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 50 90 50 91 / 10 10 0 10 Cuba............................ 51 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 54 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 52 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 48 87 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 50 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 57 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 47 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 49 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 93 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 49 83 50 84 / 0 10 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 59 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 52 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 85 42 85 / 0 10 0 10 Red River....................... 41 77 41 79 / 0 10 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 30 79 31 79 / 0 10 0 10 Taos............................ 48 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 47 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 47 93 58 92 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 60 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 95 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 96 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 54 95 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 52 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 54 86 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 55 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 57 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 44 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 45 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 56 92 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 53 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 56 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 55 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 57 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 59 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 59 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Quiet weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. This afternoon, temperatures are warming up into the mid 80s across the CWA under clear skies. Temperatures should continue to rise into the low 90s by late afternoon. Latest RAP H500 analysis shows a center of high pressure is located over Utah and is bringing northerly to northeasterly flow across the Southern High Plains. With this steering flow in place, smoke from fires in the northwestern CONUS is being moved across the Rockies into the Plains today. Hi-res models suggest that some of this smoke may reach the Panhandles later this afternoon, which could lead to somewhat hazy skies, most notably on the horizon. High pressure is forecast to remain mostly stationary through tomorrow, with only a minor shift to the east expected. To the east of our forecast area, low pressure strengthens across the southeastern US and northerly flow continues across the Plains. What does this change weather wise? Not too much. Temperatures will rise once again into the 90s and could perhaps be a degree or two warmer than today. Winds should be on the light side and clear skies will prevail. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Above average temperatures and dry conditions will continue at the beginning of the extended forecast. A cold front will push south across the Plains this weekend and is forecast to bring cooler temperatures to the forecast area. The front may even bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday for portions of the area. A upper level high pressure system with associated ridge will begin to break down on Thursday as a longwave trough digs southward out of British Columbia and Alberta. The positively tilted trough will continue to move south and east through this coming weekend. This trough will aid in propelling a surface cold front across the Central and Southern Plains on Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to drop behind the front and may struggle to get out of the 70s for most areas on Sunday. Sufficient moisture may be in place as the front progresses southward and could generate some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night into Sunday. The latest NBM is picking up on this possibility and has increased PoPs across the entire CWA during this timeframe. This chance will be highly dependent upon the positioning of the front. With that being said, have left the blended guidance for now as this is still quite a few days out. As the aforementioned trough continues to move east across the Midwest, a ridge fills in behind and will move across the western CONUS through early next week. WAA will increase across the Southern Plains and temperatures should rise back up to near normal for mid September. Muscha && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with light southeast winds becoming variable then pulling back to the southeast again towards the end of the TAF period. Wind speeds will be around 5-10kts and with mostly clear skies. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 61 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 59 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 64 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 60 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 63 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 58 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 59 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 59 92 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 62 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 62 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 63 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 64 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: - Areas of fog possible again tonight for some - Higher chances for rain returns this weekend Tonight... Area remains along eastern fringes of broad upper ridge that covers western and central U.S.. Weaker flow through large depth in the lower atmosphere has led to periods of pesky clouds and bouts of valley fog, which will continue to be problematic looking at tonight. Closer examination of latest RAP guidance suggests not only do mid level winds begin to increase and deepen, but some evidence that saturation will again lead to en elevated stratus layer overnight. This could limit extent of fog overall. Southern and eastern forecast areas could see at least patchy fog before clouds form and will have lighter boundary layer winds. Early Wednesday thru Thursday... As upper ridge starts to break down on eastern edge, could start to see some weak waves drop into the area from the northwest but so far not a strong signal in guidance for bonified precipitation chances. Will maintain a dry forecast but areas along and north of I-94 stand better chances albeit risk is still low. Also been watching amount of smoke approaching from the northern Rockies. Latest vertically integrated smoke layer from HRRR suggests some influx to western areas especially, but bulk of layer seems to rotate around large high and steers to the west and southwest of the region. Perhaps as westerlies increase as pattern shifts begins, could see some advection into western Great Lakes at times. Friday into early next week... Much stronger signal exists as broad trough starts to dive into the upper Midwest late in the week. This will certainly drive a front into the area but there remains timing differences between model runs. Mean ensemble cluster variability also supports lower confidence on how quickly rain threat moves in Friday into Saturday, but certainly pattern shift to cooler and wetter regime seems likely. As trough deepens over northern tier of states and western Great Lakes this weekend, also indications that closed low will form which will linger rain chances well into next week. This will also bring a cool down in temperatures. Could see some instability ahead of upper low lead to convection but lapse rates seem modest at best so confidence in a severe weather threat is low at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period with light and variable due to high pressure system passing overhead. Periods of MVFR/IFR fog OR MVFR ceilings are possible early tomorrow morning at the terminals. Model soundings are trending towards a clearer sky overnight which would favor fog, but some still bring in low stratus clouds which would prohibit fog from forming. Because trends are pointing towards fog development, MVFR fog was introduced at both airports. Further refinement will be necessary overnight as we keep a close eye on cloud cover observations. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shea AVIATION...KAA
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Nothing weather-wise has changed since the last update. We did expand the sky grids with smoke in them until 12z, the smoke should stick through most of Wednesday. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The smoke from wildfires continues to pollute the air, most if not all the smoke is staying in the upper levels. Visibility continues to be 10 miles, just a hazy sky appearance. The HRRR smoke model has it continuing into Wednesday. No updates were made. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The entrance of a cold front and smoke have brought cooler temperatures to North Dakota. Smoke from fires out west has moved into the region helping keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. However, no visibility impacts are expected from the smoke, just hazy skies. Temperatures will range from the 70 to 80s this afternoon for the northern and central parts of the state. While the southern portion of the state will remain warm with high temperatures reaching the mid 90s. Tonight, lows will cool down into the 50s as surface high pressure move through the eastern half of the state. A strong high pressure system over the west will shift northeastward displacing a low-level thermal ridge over eastern Montana into central South Dakota. As a result temperatures are forecast to reach 100 degrees over the southwest while the northwest and south central could hit the upper 90s. The remainder of the state is going to sit in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures could be a few degrees cooler depending on the amount of smoke lofted into the region. A north south pressure gradient will bring breezy winds across central and southeastern North Dakota tomorrow. This could lead to near critical fire weather conditions for south central North Dakota, however wind and relative humidity could be limiting factors. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A pattern change and cooler weather is expected through the long term. An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest is expected to dampen ridging across the Western CONUS. As a result a pacific cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday causing temperatures to drop 10 to 15 degrees. Thursday`s high temperatures could range from the lower 70s over the northwest to the 90s over the southeast. Thursday afternoon and evening precipitation is possible (20-50%) along the front, mainly south of I-94. Rain could linger through Friday as another shortwave rounds the base of the broad trough moving through the region. Friday`s temperatures are forecast to sit in the 60s across the region, 10 degrees below normal. Saturday morning temperatures could drop into the upper 30s with potential frost for the northwest. Sunday morning temperatures could drop into the mid 30s for the southwest bringing another chance for frost. Cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend as temperatures remain below normal through Sunday. Weak ridging could build over the Northern Plains early next week before an active pattern brings multiple shortwaves into the region. It`s beginning to feel more like fall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 VFR conditions through the period. Wildfire smoke will continue in the upper levels into Wednesday. Winds will start to shift to the south overnight, gusting around 15 knots Wednesday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...Johnson LONG TERM...Johnson AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1017 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Steady rain will taper off from northeast to southwest through the first part of the evening, but a few spot showers will remain possible into Wednesday. High pressure builds over the region Thursday, and persists through this weekend with dry weather and normal to slightly above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Mainly some minor tweaks to rainfall chances overnight. Last few runs of both the HRRR and RAP appeared to have good handle on precipitation based on regional radar data. Mainly light spotty showers or drizzle through most of the overnight. Temperature forecast still looked reasonable. 740 PM Update... Forecast remains largely on track. Made some slight adjustments to the PoPs to reflect the widespread nature of light showers or drizzle. Showers should gradually come to an end from north to south overnight as high pressure builds in. But low pressure off the Jersey coast will reinforce the onshore flow and keep the low-level moist with the chance for spotty drizzle or light showers. Temps will not fall much tonight, bottoming out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Previous Discussion... * Steady rain tapers off during the first half of the evening Low pressure will exit the south Jersey coast early this evening and drop further southeast tonight. At the same time...high pressure over Maine will nose southward. This will bring an end to most of the widespread rain from northeast to southwest during the first half of the evening; as somewhat drier mid-level air continues to work in from the north. However, weak mid level low pressure to our south will help to generate moist low level onshore flow. This will result in lingering low clouds, a few spot showers and perhaps some spotty drizzle/fog patches overnight. So while much of the later evening and overnight hours will turn out dry; a few spot showers and perhaps some spotty drizzle will remain possible. Overnight low temps will bottom out mainly in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday... High pressure across northern New England will combined with low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. This will continue to generate a low level onshore ENE flow of air into the region. This will keep skies rather cloudy on Wednesday, but perhaps we see a few breaks develop late in the afternoon/early evening across northern MA as somewhat drier air tries to work into the region. While most of the day will feature dry weather in a given location; a few spot showers will also be possible mainly across eastern CT/RI and SE MA where moisture will be bit deeper. That being said; even in these locations dry weather will dominate the vast majority of the time. High temps will mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Wednesday night... Drier low level air continues to slowly work in from the north from a high pressure system in northern New England. This should result in partial clearing at least northwest of I-95 by daybreak Thursday. Dry weather expected across much of the region, but may have a band of showers approach the south coast, Cape and Islands. This will depend upon northwest extent of the low level circulation from the distant offshore low pressure system. Overnight low temps will mainly be in the 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights * Some spotty rain showers may linger across portions of the Cape/Islands Thursday, but no washouts. * Mainly dry and quiet weather for the rest of the week with high pressure in control with a warming trend into the weekend. * Turning more unsettled early next week. Thursday into Friday... A shortwave trough will cross New England on Thursday, helping to push the frontal boundary that has been stalled near the Mid Atlantic coast further offshore. Further to the south, distant Earl should start turning northeastward after moving close to Bermuda. While this would help maintain the low-level northeast flow for our area through Friday, model sounding cross section indicates a gradual drying of the 925-700mb levels. This should allow for a mix of sun and clouds especially away from the immediate south coast. With 925mb temps +14 to +17C, highs should top out mainly in the mid 70s, except upper 70s across the CT valley on both Thursday and Friday. Saturday into Sunday... H5 ridge builds into New England this weekend. With surface high pressure in control and 925mb temps +18 to +20C, expect mainly dry weather and near seasonable highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Monday into Tuesday... Models indicate a H5 low closing off over the Great Lakes and moving into the Ohio valley. Low level flow turns south to southwest and there would be an increasing chance for unsettled weather early next week. Given the model uncertainty and that we are more than five days out, mainly stuck to blended guidance for early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. Spotty showers or drizzle expected. MVFR-IFR ceilings dominate, with some patchy fog possible too. Lowest visibility generally across the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and towards the east slopes of the Berkshires. NE winds 5-10 knots. Wednesday...Moderate Confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions early in the morning will tend to improve to mainly MVFR-VFR thresholds as the day wears along from north to south. Specific timing a bit uncertain, but improvement should occur from the north as drier air gradually presses into the region. A few spot showers and drizzle will remain possible mainly across southeast New England, but the vast majority of the day will be dry in a given location. NE winds 5-15 knots. Wednesday night...High Confidence. Remaining lower ceilings will tend to improve to mainly VFR during the evening/overnight hours as drier air continues to advect in from the north. A few showers still possible across the southeast New England coast. NE winds 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal..Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence. High pressure over northern New England coupled with low pressure emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast will generate a continued NE flow of air right through Wed night. Have hoisted SCA headlines for our southern outer-waters where we expect 3-5 foot seas and NE wind gusts up to 25 knots tonight into Wed night. It will be marginal for some of our western and southern sounds, but some marginal 25 knot NE wind gusts are possible on Wednesday. Later shifts may have to consider expanding the small craft headlines a bit further northwest as it will be a close call. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/Chai NEAR TERM...Belk/Frank/Chai SHORT TERM...Frank LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Belk/Frank/Chai MARINE...Frank/Chai
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
622 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Up until about 1 PM this afternoon, the majority of the moderate to heavy rainfall today has fallen just off the coast, over the Gulf waters. Latest model run of the HRRR has some convection developing across the region, but keeps the concentration of activity mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and the western half of the RGV through about sunset before activity dwindles. Convection that does develop and holds together today will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, per the 2.21 inches of precipitable water value in this morning`s BRO RAOB. The mid/upper-level trough and its axis responsible for this unsettled weather will gradually be shifting eastward tonight and through the day Wednesday as strong mid-level ridging continues to build over the Great Basin region. Despite this, rain chances still don`t completely go away. Reasoning is that deterministic models show a shortwave trough, embedded on the backside of the main trough axis, digging south and moving through southeast Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will maintain isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, especially across the coastal counties and the Gulf waters, through Wednesday evening. PWATs will remain above 2.0 inches through much of Wednesday afternoon, then decrease to about 1.4-1.6 inches after sunset. Therefore, once again, rainfall may be heavy or very heavy at times. Rain chances will subside by or just after sunset Wednesday. Winds will continue to fairly light and variable through the short- term, generally out of the east or east-northeast during the daytime. As for temperatures, thick cloud cover and rain chances will help keep daytime temperatures well below the seasonal averages, with highs reaching the upper 80s/lower 90s Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, lows will remain around average, mid-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 A mid/upper level trough draped across the Mid-Atlantic into the Lower Mississippi Valley along with deep layer moisture in place over Deep South Texas will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, especially in the afternoon, on Thursday. As this trough and its axis continues to slowly drift eastward, it becomes a cut off low late Thursday over the Gulf of Mexico/southern Louisiana. Northwesterly flow on the backside of the low will allow drier air to filter into the region. This will allow for decreasing rain chances through Saturday, though some isolated sea breeze activity will still be possible. By Sunday, the aforementioned low begins to lift northward allowing moisture to once again stream back into the area and thus slightly increase chances for precipitation through the remainder of the period, especially over the Gulf waters and coastal counties. Winds will remain light through the period as the surface pressure gradient remains weak. Temperatures will rebound just a bit through the week, but still likely stay just shy of seasonal norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Leftover light rain from dying convection will affect the aerodromes through the next few hours. A TEMPO has been added to the current issuance of TAFs for additioanl convection on Wednesday, but confidence in the timing is low. Overall, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours with generally light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 (Now through Wednesday night) Buoy 42020 reported east-northeast winds around 14 knots with seas slightly around 2 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1240 CDT/1740 UTC. Favorable marine conditions, with light winds and low seas, will prevail along the lower Texas coast as a weak pressure gradient remains in place. An upper-level disturbance and tropical moisture will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters through Wednesday night. Occasional to frequent cloud to water lightning, gusty winds, heavy to torrential rainfall, and locally higher seas are all possible near any convection. Thursday through Monday...A weak surface pressure gradient will keep winds light and seas at about 1 to 2 feet for the period. There will continue to be some chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday and then again next week, which could lead to localized elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 88 75 93 / 60 70 10 30 HARLINGEN 73 88 72 91 / 50 60 10 30 MCALLEN 75 90 74 95 / 40 50 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 91 73 95 / 30 30 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 77 87 / 60 50 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 88 73 89 / 50 50 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
725 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .UPDATE... Updated the hourly temperature and sky forecast tonight to latest model data. Also added haze through Wednesday night based on vertically integrated smoke forecast from the HRRR model. Rest of forecast unchanged. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM MDT to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for much of the area. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from noon MDT Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for critical fire weather conditions. RMS && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday Night... Wednesday is a critical fire weather day and very hot which could be dangerous for those engaged in outdoor activities during the afternoon. Record temperatures expected. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms could bring an enhanced fire threat. Tonight upper level ridging begins building over the region and high pressure over the Dakotas slides further east allowing low level winds to become southerly. Will be dry overnight and relatively smoke free at the surface though plenty of smoke aloft moving over the area from fires over western MT/ID and northeast Oregon. 594DM 500MB heights along the Montana Wyoming border indicative of the heat in the airmass which will bring record temperatures on Wednesday. Shortwave moving into northwest Montana will bring breaking down the ridge which allows compressional warming and deep mixing and momentum transfer to become factors during the afternoon hours. This means temperatures will be 100+ for many areas and could set all time September records and latest 100s in the season for a few locations. One more day of heat safety concerns before the season relents. Humidity will be near 10 percent and wind gusts along the foothills could be reaching 30 mph and 20 mph gusts possible in lower elevations. This combination with recent fuels drying will put Red Flag conditions in place across the area. There is moisture being pulled into the area aloft by the shortwave so hi based thunderstorms are possible as well which could produce dry lightning and wind gusts to 60 mph. Tomorrow is heads up for quickly developing situation on the fire weather front. Speaking of fronts...a welcome cool down will move in late Wednesday night and a dramatic change to cloudy, cooler, and decent chances for precipitation arrives Thursday. Jet energy transitions from a right entrance region Thursday morning to a left exit region Thursday evening and with flow aloft becoming more cyclonic...a prolonged period of lift will moisten the atmosphere and give a chance for precipitation to hit the ground. One more weather element to consider is that Wednesday is going to be a major burn day upstream, so some of that smoke could be wrapped into the post frontal airmass so Thursday morning could be pretty murky. borsum Friday through Tuesday... Friday continues to look like considerable shift in the weather compared to the last several weeks. A sharper wave will move in quickly behind the broad upper trough across the Northern Rockies and southern Canada. This will bring in more energy across the area. There will also be a favorable jet positioned over the area. This will help provide some good broad scale lift. Precipitable water values will increase, 0.75 to 1.00 inches, will support some decent rainfall totals, especially down around along Montana/Wyoming stateline. The temperatures at 850 mb will fall into the single digits, and fall below 0c at 700 mb. This will result some snowfall at the highest peaks. This could impact the Beartooth Pass and US-14 in the Bighorns. Going into the weekend the temperatures will increasing, slowly. Sunday will still be in the 60s for much of the area, but by Sunday temperatures will be back into the mid 80s. Reimer && .AVIATION... Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce slant range visibility across the region. Surface visibilities should remain at or above 6SM. Otherwise, strong high pressure aloft will keep the region mostly clear and dry over the next 18 hours. Expect increasing cloud cover and some shower development towards 18Z. Reimer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/102 065/079 050/060 043/066 044/081 051/086 053/082 01/T 36/W 65/W 41/U 10/U 00/U 11/B LVM 057/101 055/081 041/063 035/069 037/085 046/087 048/080 01/T 35/T 44/T 31/U 10/U 11/U 12/T HDN 055/104 062/081 047/062 039/067 039/081 045/087 048/084 01/G 35/W 65/W 41/U 11/U 00/U 11/B MLS 057/104 067/080 050/064 042/066 043/077 047/085 052/083 00/G 23/W 45/W 31/U 10/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 059/104 068/083 049/060 043/064 042/076 047/083 050/082 00/G 13/W 66/T 52/W 10/U 00/U 00/B BHK 057/101 066/079 049/063 041/064 041/074 046/082 049/081 00/G 13/W 45/W 32/W 10/U 00/U 00/B SHR 058/103 061/084 044/058 039/063 038/078 045/085 050/083 00/G 15/T 77/T 63/W 11/U 00/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169>173-228-235. Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 117-123>133. WY...Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday FOR ZONE 199. Red Flag Warning in effect from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 274-284. && $$
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1048 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 KEY MESSAGES: 1. Temperatures continue to increase through the middle of the week. 2. Extensive upper smoke plume likely to move through into Wednesday. 3. High fire weather likely Thursday, with gusty winds. THIS AFTERNOON: A light southeasterly surface wind continues this afternoon with a weak surface pressure ridge west of the James River valley. Highs continue to rise into the middle up upper 80s, with highs in the 90s into south central South Dakota. The other item of note is an extensive smoke plume aloft, with the most dense smoke across the western half of the Dakotas this afternoon. TONIGHT: Based on HRRR smoke trajectories, thick smoke will overspread the Tri-State area overnight, and while they`ll create a very red sunset, they may have an impact on overnight low temperatures. Currently, have kept low temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s. WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl heights continue to rise on Wednesday, with even warmer 850mb temperatures advecting into the Plains. Winds will be fairly light in the morning hours, gradually increasing in the afternoon as the SPG increases over areas west of the James river. The unknown on Wednesday along with Thursday will be the impact of smoke on high temperatures. Light mixing days may see more of an impact than deeper/stronger mixing days, so have held back on any increase at this time. Fire weather could be slightly elevated in south central SD on Wednesday, but the light winds will help trap some of the existing surface moisture in the area and hold dew points into the 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 THURSDAY: The most impactful weather of the week will take place on Thursday. Mid-lvl heights continue to build and spread eastward on Thursday, meanwhile 850 troughing increases over the western High Plains by Thursday morning. What results is an eastward shift in the thermal ridge and increase in western troughing, resulting in much stronger and focused southwesterly surface winds across the Tri- State area. Latest guidance suggests 850 mb temperature anomalies greater than 15C moving through the region and when looking at sounding climatology from ABR/LBF, this may run past the 90th percentile and towards the daily max recorded for the date. After a warm overnight, we should see temperatures jump quickly into the 90s and perhaps 100s in portions of the CWA west of the James River. The unknown variable will be the impact of the smoke at the high levels and it`s potential to slow warming much like a very thick cirrus plume. Looking at today`s trend in NW South Dakota suggests that model data has actually cooled a few degrees from the weekend based on bringing in interpolated cloud cover. However, if the smoke is thinner, the deeper mixing could just compensate and still push temperatures even warmer. The resultant mix down of very dry air resulting in RH values 20-30%, winds gusts over 30 mph, and dry fuels pushed by drought conditions will lead to very high or perhaps critical values over portions of the Dakotas Thursday afternoon. FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A frontal boundary continues to push southeast through the Tri-State area a bit faster on today`s model runs. This will bring temperature relief quickly by Thursday night with the potential for post-frontal showers and thunderstorms moving southeast into Friday morning. Medium range models continue to oscillate back and forth with the potential for post frontal rain into the upcoming weekend. The GFS ensemble remains much less bullish on rain probabilities than the ECMWF/GEM and the deterministic models also support this concept. As alluded to in previous discussions, this won`t be a drought busting rain, but could provide light amounts in the region. High temperatures both Friday and Saturday will be much cooler than the middle of the week, with guidance suggesting 70s. SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Confidence lowers slightly into next week, though models continue to hint that energy moving through Friday, will eventually develop into an upper low as it moves to the east and southeast by Sunday/Monday. At this point however, it looks like development may take place far enough to the east that it won`t have a major impact on the area, keeping temperatures near normal levels and maintaining dry weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, aside from a chance for shallow valley fog near sunrise. Light and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds turn southerly Wednesday morning and strengthen Wednesday afternoon. Wildfire smoke will stream in from the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday so maintained a high based scattered group. Smoke is not expected to mix down to the surface tonight or Wednesday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dux LONG TERM...Dux AVIATION...BP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 -- Quiet through Friday -- The upper low that has been providing cooler than normal temperatures and primarily overcast skies is finally in the process of being booted out of the Ohio Valley region. High pressure settles in through late week and this will give us quite a bit of sunshine Wednesday through Friday. Along with 850 mb temperatures moderating from 11C today to 17C by Friday, this will help boost daytime temperatures back into the 80s. Otherwise, we`ll be monitoring two periods for possible fog development: late tonight / early Wednesday and then again late Wednesday night / early Thursday. The threat tonight does not look substantial based on the 12z HRRR and a blend of both high resolution and medium range guidance. We may just have minor visibility obstruction except for areas that drop lower in temperature, such as interior Central Lower Michigan, thus lessening the dewpoint depression coincident with little to no wind. With the surface high centered over Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday, we may have a better shot at getting more widespread fog development. -- Potentially Wet Pattern Beginning late Saturday -- A complex pattern evolves by late in the weekend across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. A dominant upper high across the western U.S. early this week looks to be flattened by upper troughing across the northern Plains by late week. This trough will be advancing toward the Great Lakes region. At the same time, upper heights looks to build across the eastern U.S. Additionally, the ECE ensemble mean 500 mb plot shows good ensemble agreement regarding a closed low centered near Louisiana from mid to late week that will likely get lifted north and absorbed with the upper trough that is attempting to make eastward progress. However, progress may be halted somewhere over the Midwest or Great Lakes by the weekend because of the strengthening eastern U.S. ridge. This may lead to a closed upper low somewhere in our region and these are notoriously difficult to pinpoint several days out both in terms of geographic location and duration of impact. Another plausible solution is that the southern upper low gets absorbed by the trough and it propagates quicker to the east. Both deterministic and ensemble solutions do support an advection of higher than normal precipitable water values into the region (1.25"-1.50") late in the weekend. The 12z GEFS and CMC ensembles are fairly quick to advect in and then boot out the richer moisture. The 12z ECE is slower, likely because several of its members close off the upper low and a surface low development occurs. With this outcome, ensemble members do support 1" or more of rain with some indication for 2"-4" wherever the low closes off. It is still too early to say a) if this evolution will occur and b) if it will happen over Michigan. The bottom line is there is a risk for an extended rainfall event beginning Saturday night or Sunday and lasting into early next week depending on how this evolves. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Skies are clearing with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. There could some brief shallow fog that might bring some reduction in visibility around sunrise Wednesday, but not confident enough to introduce change in flight category at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 With an advancing area of high pressure moving into the region, winds will pick up out of the north on Wednesday and this will help build waves into the 1 to 2 foot range, possibly a bit higher south of Holland where some waves to 3 feet are not out of the question. By Friday winds will increase from the south and waves could build into the 2 to 4 foot range near and north of Muskegon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving AVIATION...Maczko MARINE...Hoving
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
719 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Dry weather is expected for the rest of the work week. The next chance for rain will be late Saturday. High temperatures will rise into the eighties late week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The upper low is currently centered over northwest Ohio, but most of the convective activity associated with is is well south where there is better moisture. Still, can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm locally this afternoon/evening. Breaks in this morning`s cloud cover have allowed a decent cumulus field to develop, and the HRRR and 4km Nam do indicate a few pop-ups over north central Indiana, mainly after 5 pm. However, with confidence low, I kept the forecast mostly dry expect for a slight chance south of US 30. The low rotates away from the region tonight and high pressure builds in for Wednesday, squashing precipitation chances. There may again be some patchy fog overnight with partially clear skies and light winds. With northerly flow both at the surface and aloft, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 High pressure will continue to build over the midwest on Thursday and, and then shift east towards the mid-Atlantic on Friday. The resulting subsidence will keep the area dry and push daytime highs into the low 80s going into the weekend. The ridge will move offshore on Saturday as a robust trough dives down from the northwest and a closed low moves up from the Gulf. This low could bring showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening before the cold front arrives with more rain on Sunday. The second low is then forecast to linger over the region through Tuesday with showers continuing. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s during this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 713 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The only significant change to the TAFs with this issuance was to introduce TEMPO 3SM BR for KFWA. With high pressure moving in, skies clearing, temperatures on pace to hit the cross-over temperature, and the September climatology, some patchy BR/FG is likely. This is less of an issue at KSBN where conditions have been notably dry over the past few weeks. Wind remains northerly on Wednesday afternoon, but increasing toward 10 KTS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cobb/Brown SHORT TERM...Cobb LONG TERM...Cobb AVIATION...Brown Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 There are several concerns in the short term forecast, first is the high temperatures for Wednesday, smoke tonight into Wednesday, and fire weather concerns. For temperatures tomorrow, kept our western CWA similar to highs we had today, WAA in combination with very warm 850mb temps around 26 to 30 degrees will mix to upper 90s to 100s at the sfc. For areas across our eastern CWA, kept temperatures a few degrees colder. 850 temps will be slightly cooler, around 20 to 22 degrees and it will be on the eastern fringe of the WAA, giving temps at the sfc in the mid to upper 90s. There is also some concern that elevated smoke could have some impact on temperatures, mainly across north central Nebraska, however at this time confidence is low, as there is some uncertainty in how much smoke will inhibit daytime. As for the smoke, looking at the HRRR vertically integrated smoke, sfc smoke and 1000ft smoke, there will be an increase in filtration across the CWA. Thus confidence has increased that some smoke will settle in at the sfc and could impact visibility, mainly across the northwest Sandhills and have added the mention of smoke to the forecast. Other locations across western Nebraska may see some haze at the sfc, however impact to visibility is not expected to be less than 6 statue miles, and have included the mention of haze to account for this. The increase in vertically integrated smoke across Sandhills and north central Nebraska may result in some elevated smoke and have added an increase in sky coverage to account for this. There is some concern there could be some patchy fog overnight with the combination of smoke particulates in the air, adequate moisture at the sfc along and very light winds, could result in brief patchy fog in the morning, mainly along the river valley. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 The biggest concern in the long term will be temperatures on Thursday, fire weather concerns, which more info can be read below in the fire weather portion of the discussion, along with precipitation chance Thursday night, then a weather pattern change after Thursday. Thursday will be the last warm day with temperatures reaching the upper 90s to low 100s, with even some record potentials possible. A cold front will then pass through beginning Thursday evening with the potential for some thunderstorms to develop along the boundary, mainly across northern Nebraska. As the ridge breaks down there will be a shift in the pattern and a much cooler pattern sets up for the weekend. Highs on Friday will only be in the 70s to low 80s. Another chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Friday into Saturday and even cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday with highs only in the low 60s. An upper level high begins to build in across the western CONUS bringing warmer temperatures back into the picture Tuesday with highs reaching the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 VFR conditions will persist across western and north central Nebraska the next 24 hours. Atmospheric smoke from forest fires in Idaho and Montana will remain over the area overnight and into Wednesday, but is not expected to cause a reduction to visibility or other impacts to aviation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Fire weather concerns will remain elevated into this evening and again for Wednesday. Min RH will be in the teens across western Nebraska and in the 20s across fire weather zones 209, 206 and 208. This is combination with very warm temperatures will lead to elevated concerns. Winds will be out of the southeast around 10 to 15 mph. Thursday will be near critical to critical for fire weather concerns. Highs will once again be well above normal with some record breaking temperatures expected as highs reach the upper 90s to low 100s. Min RH will be in the teens across western Nebraska and the Sandhills and in the 20s across north central Nebraska. Winds will be breezier than Wednesday and will be just on the cusp of critical fire weather criteria. The stronger winds will generally be across north central Nebraska around 15 to 20 mph with the potential for some gust above 25 mph. Across western Nebraska where lowest RH will exist sustained winds will range from 10 to 15 mph a few locations could be stronger, with gust above 20 mph. There is still some uncertainty on exactly the strongest winds will set up, as there has been a shift of stronger winds northeastward. There is also the concern with a wind shift to the north as the front passes which is expected to be in the evening hours along with the potential for some thunderstorms, mainly across the northern Sandhills, where there could be potential for frequent lightning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Roberg FIRE WEATHER...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
958 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Areas of fog continue to be likely tonight, especially across northern counties of TN and into VA where less high clouds are expected. For Wednesday, PoPs continue to trend down, especially north of Interstate 40. The current 00z RAP indicates that the 500mb trough axis will be oriented from SW to NE through SE TN and the East Tennessee mountain foothills by 18z Wednesday. With subsidence west of this axis where northerly upper flow will prevail, the main chances of afternoon rain will be across SE TN, SW NC, and along the mountains near the TN/NC state line. Northerly low-level flow and subsidence will result in an increasingly dry airmass through Wednesday afternoon with lowest chances of rain across the NW portions of the forecast area near the KY state line. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: 1. Showers decrease tonight and patchy/areas of fog is expected areawide. 2. Additional showers and storms tomorrow as an upper trough passes through the area. Discussion: A few scattered showers and storms will be around this afternoon and evening as an upper trough approaches our area. Bumped up POPs slightly for this timeframe compared to what was previously forecast. Main area of focus is along the southern Cumberland Plateau as a line of convection approaches this area from out of southern Middle TN. If this line holds together, expect brief heavy rainfall and gusty sub-severe winds. Precip coverage will lessen during the overnight hours as we lose daytime heating but will keep some slight chance POPs in across some areas. Model guidance continues to be bullish on fog overnight so will include patchy/areas of fog across the CWA. For tomorrow, upper trough begins to slide to our east as upper ridging across the western U.S. becomes stronger and expands eastward. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be around through much of the day. However, we begin to dry out late in the day across our northern areas as we get on the backside of the trough as drier air filters in from the north. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: 1. An unsettled weather pattern through long term with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. Isolated flooding could occur over areas that receive multiple days of rainfall. 2. Maximum temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal with lows near normal to slightly above normal due to cloud cover. Discussion: On Thursday the frontal boundary will be draped across the Atlantic towards the Gulf Coast with mid level troughing across the eastern portion of the United States. Thursday into Friday will likely be the driest periods of the long term forecast as most of the precipitation sticks closer to the frontal boundary east of the mountains. There is a slight chance for precipitation Thursday afternoon along the mountains, and these storms could possibly roll off them and into the valley, but expect most of the convection to stick east of the Appalachians. Better rain chances will return over the weekend as the cut off low develops and strengthens over the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will slowly move northeastward over the weekend providing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the southeast United States Saturday and into Sunday. Expect fairly consistent light to moderate rainfall Saturday and Sunday with increasing chances for thunderstorms as we move into the afternoon and early evening hours, during peak heating. QPF amounts through the weekend and into Monday are between 1-2 inches across the area with the highest amounts along the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and especially in the southern Appalachian mountains. There will be locally higher amounts, with some places possibly seeing multiple rounds of moderate rain, so isolated flooding, especially along the mountains is the most likely impactful weather over the weekend and into next week. The closed low/trough will eventually get absorbed/overtaken by a deep low moving across the northern plains towards the Great Lakes during the middle of the week. At this time most models show that this will push through a frontal boundary Monday into Tuesday, with mostly dry conditions returning to the region by Tuesday. There is the possibility of wrap around precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday, depending on the location of the low... but at this time will carry a dry forecast for most of Tuesday and into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM EDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage tonight with IFR fog and low clouds expected late tonight and Wednesday morning, especially at TRI and TYS where IFR and LIFR vis/cigs are forecast. More uncertainty exists for impacts at CHA, but expect some impactful fog and low clouds within the vicinity of the terminal. Fog and low clouds will improve to VFR conditions by mid-day Wednesday with drier air bringing a drier and clearer trend by late in the forecast period. Winds remain light through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 85 65 84 / 20 40 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 83 63 84 / 30 40 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 67 82 63 84 / 30 30 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 80 61 82 / 20 40 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....ABM AVIATION...JB
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Quiet weather for the next few days with warm and borderline hot temperatures. There is some smoke aloft across the mid CONUS as noted on Geocolor satellite imagery, and the HRRR smoke model indicates this smoke aloft could become more prevalent over our area through Wednesday night. Really not expecting any surface smoke in our coverage area, just most of a hazy sky appearance. After low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 60s, we`ll see afternoon highs again Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thursday will also see similar temperatures. We`ll also see stronger southerly winds in the 15 to 25 knot range. And while surface RH st still 30-35%, the increased winds will create areas of high to very high rangeland fire danger and mostly across eastern NE. We will see a cold front settle into northeast Nebraska Thursday night. This front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms, but it will also mark a notable air mass shift. High temps Friday near the NE/SD border range in the upper 70s, but still near 90 along/south of Interstate 80. The cooler air really overspreads the region through the weekend as a strong closed upper trough moves through the Midwest. This will bring a rather coolish, rainy day on Saturday with northeasterly winds. The chance of rain has now increase to 40-60%, and with potential QPF amounts one quarter to one half inch, although the GFS would suggest higher amounts. We desperately need the moisture. NBM holds onto shower chances into Sunday, but new 12z models are quicker to move the rain out. So while Saturday looks pretty wet, odds are favoring at least a drier end to the weekend, but still on the cooler side in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Monday and Tuesday also look dry with a slight warming trend with highs back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Have seen some cumulus clouds this afternoon between KOMA and KLNK this afternoon, those should decrease the next hour or two. Otherwise mainly just some smoke aloft is expected over the area. The height is probably between FL100 and FL150. Winds will decrease to under 10 knots by sunset, then increase to 10 knots or so (possibly some gusts 13-18 knots at KOFK) for Wednesday afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Message: 1) Record high temperatures possible tomorrow afternoon with smoke lofted in the mid to upper levels. Near record temperatures have been recorded this afternoon, but the previous records were quite high, therefore we have not tied or broke any record high temperatures today (so far). Showers and thunderstorms have been isolated at best and mainly over the Continental Divide. Smoke is in the atmosphere, but primarily in the mid to upper levels, which is representative with the HRRR Smoke model guidance. The thickness at the surface was not enough to prompt the weather grids to include patchy smoke. Tomorrow is much like today, hot temperatures and smoke lofted in the mid-to-upper troposphere. Near record temperatures are expected once again tomorrow - here is a table: Alamosa - Record: 87F in 2021...Forecast: 87F Colorado Springs - Record: 92F in 1959...Forecast: 92F Pueblo - Record: 100F in 2002...Forecast: 100F Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Continental Divide, once again, with gusty outflow winds being the main concern. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 Key Messages: 1. Frontal passage will bring significantly cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday. 2. Rain chances increase in the mountains and along the I-25 corridor with frontal passage this weekend. Thursday - Saturday High pressure ridge will continue to dominate the area from Thursday into Friday, bringing hotter temperatures, especially in the plains. Late Friday, a large trough of low pressure will encroach on the area. This will set the stage for a frontal passage late Friday that will bring cooler temperatures, which will turn much cooler with a secondary frontal passage on Saturday with highs in the 60`s and 70`s in the plains and 50`s and 60`s in the mountains and mountain valleys. As Hurricane Kay makes its way up the Baja California coast, this could provide some moisture in our area, and the resulting easterly winds from the frontal passage may provide the proper ingredients to develop rain showers in the mountains out to the I-25 corridor and maybe a little eastward. Thunderstorm development is questionable as models show capping in the area, limiting the precipitation to more of a stratiform nature, but a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out within the county warning area. In the mountains and mountain valleys, the effects of the cold front may be shielded by the mountains and may have little effect in these areas. Sunday through the next work week After the weekend`s frontal passage and cooler temperatures, some models are showing another ridge of high pressure to start building over Utah and Colorado bringing hotter and drier conditions throughout the next work week, which may eventually dry the fuels in the mountains and the plains and bring about isolated fire weather concerns, though lingering moisture could bring isolated rain and thunderstorms to the mountains and plains during this time. Currently the models are not in agreement on how this will materialize so confidence is not high on either scenario. -Riser && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 247 PM MDT Tue Sep 6 2022 VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the forecast period. Diurnal winds are expected, with some gusty winds during the afternoon tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...RISER AVIATION...SKELLY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
323 PM PDT Tue Sep 6 2022 .Synopsis... An extended period of dangerous heat will persist this week. Monsoon moisture will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the northern Sierra Nevada. A more significant moisture surge is possible over the weekend. && .Discussion... As shown on satellite, the early morning mid-level clouds and virga have mostly moved north and out of the region. Cumulus clouds continue to develop along the central Sierra, where some isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Main story continues to be the significant heatwave we`re currently in the thick of. Surface temperatures have increased some compared to 24 hours ago, and are currently ~2-5 degrees F warmer than those observed yesterday across the region. Today is expected to be the warmest day in the forecast, with Thursday running only a few degrees `cooler.` Some mid-level moisture rotating around the periphery of the high pressure will continue to keep isolated shower or thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the Sierra-Nevada through the rest of the week. The latest and previous several runs of the HRRR have been highlighting the potential for some breezy outflow winds from showers/t-storms along the Sierra crest this afternoon/evening. These outflows could send gusty around 25 mph westward, primarily only reaching the eastern fringes of the higher elevations south of I-80. Considering only the HRRR out of the CAMs and the HREF max ensemble wind gusts have been the only things highlighting this, confidence is low. With continued presence of mid-level moisture rotating around the periphery of the high pressure coupled with enhanced lift from a low pressure system moving through the PacNW Wednesday, some increased moisture is expected across northern CA. Moisture is sparse and shallow, remaining confined to ~200 mb between 650-450mb Wednesday. With very limited instability (50-100 J/kg), not anticipating anything more than some isolated showers and thunderstorms early morning through afternoon Wednesday across northwestern Shasta County. However, if a storm does develop, with very dry low levels, locally gusty winds and a stray dry lightning strike may be possible. With some increased cloud cover, and subtly weakened heights aloft due to the passing trough to the north, Wednesday`s afternoon temperatures will be `cooler` a few degrees than those expected Tuesday. though, considering how warm Today`s afternoon temperatures will be coupled with increased cloud cover, minimum temperatures Wednesday morning will likely be record breaking. Temperatures will quickly rebound to significantly above normal Thursday and Friday and the high pressure center shifts overhead. The latest forecast increased for Friday, which increased the heat risk for the valley and foothills to very high. As a result, the Excessive Heat Warning through 8PM PDT Friday. -Peters && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Monday)... The next big weather feature to keep an eye out for is Hurricane Kay. Kay is currently forecast to become a Tropical Storm Saturday afternoon off the SoCal coast. The main impact this system would potentially bring is increased moisture across the region sometime this weekend. Confidence is still very low at this point on timing and how much instability will accompany the deep moisture surge, but at a minimum, we`re expecting increased cloud cover this weekend, which will decrease apparent temperatures. Currently, the forecast is calling for about a 5-10 degree temperature decrease from Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon. With an additional 5+ degree temperature decrease for Sunday afternoon. At this point, moisture will linger through early next week, continuing to keep at least some clouds in the forecast and temperatures near seasonal normal. -Peters && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible over the Sierra south of I-80 through 03z-06z Wednesday. Surface wind mainly below 12 knots except local gusts up to 25 knots near the Delta after 00z Wednesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County- Southern Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada- Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$