Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/06/22

National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 No updated planned with the evening update. UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 No significant changes to the early evening forecast. Cloudless sky but smoke remains aloft over the forecast area with some near surface smoke over western ND. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight through Tuesday. This should help clear out the near surface smoke in the west, at least temporarily. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Highlights for the short term period include well above normal temperatures, near critical fire weather conditions in the west, and smoke aloft. An upper level ridge axis is rebounding over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas early this afternoon behind a departing shortwave. A surface trough is currently analyzed along the Highway 83 corridor and is drifting east. Winds along the surface trough are light, but southerly winds are sustained near 20 mph ahead of the trough. Behind the surface trough, winds have turned westerly around 10 to 15 mph. Afternoon temperatures are already in the 90s across western North Dakota, with humidity below 20 percent. Winds are expected to remain under 20 mph across western North Dakota through the rest of the day, but the very low RH in the presence of the westerly breeze will result in near critical fire weather conditions. Much lighter winds along the surface trough and higher dewpoints to the east will keep the fire weather concerns limited to western North Dakota. The Northern Plains will sit at the northeast corner of the strong dome of high pressure through Tuesday as a progressive Canadian shortwave forces an enhanced zonal flow along the international border. This pattern will continue to advect smoke aloft from western US wildfires over the region. The 12 UTC HRRR implies a moderate thickness to the smoke, which could impact the low and high temperature forecast by a few degrees. However, light winds and no clouds would otherwise promote strong cooling and heating, so the affects of smoke on temperature may be canceled out in the forecast. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the lower 80s far north to mid 90s far southwest and south central. Despite another day of low RH, especially in the southwest, lights winds will preclude any fire weather concerns. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Well above normal temperatures will quickly transition to below normal with the passage of a cold front now set to arrive on Thursday. A transient ridge approaching the Canadian prairie provinces and lining up with the peak of the CONUS dome of high pressure will allow the thermal ridge to strengthen over the Northern High Plains on Wednesday. This should result in widespread highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, but smoke aloft could once again be a factor in the temperature forecast. South-southeast surface flow between downstream high pressure and upstream low pressure may be under- represented in NBM guidance, as was the case in a similar regime yesterday. But at this time, little to no overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph or greater and RH 20 percent or lower is expected, with the driest conditions once again kept in far southwest North Dakota. Recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has greatly sped up the passage of a cold front attendant to a deepening trough ejecting off the Canadian Rockies. The consensus time of arrival in northwest North Dakota implied by NBM surface fields is now early Thursday morning, with the front clearing the forecast area by the evening. This forecast change is reflected in the entire NBM maximum temperature distribution in the northwest shifting 10 degrees cooler since this time yesterday! Ensemble cluster analysis also shows strong support for the sped up frontal passage, with near unanimous consensus from the perhaps under-dispersive ECMWF ensemble (the 12 UTC deterministic ECMWF is even faster though). Locations along and ahead of the front at midday, which could include much of south central and eastern North Dakota, are still likely to see highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s, with some possible assistance from compressional heating. The boundary layer wind field and cold air advection associated with the front do not look as strong as was indicated by previous model suites, but the timing of the front now better coincides with steep low level lapse rates. While wind speeds may remain below advisory criteria and critical fire weather thresholds, the potential for a sharp wind shift moving through an antecedently hot and dry air mass could cause fire weather to be a concern on Thursday. Deterministic guidance suggests chances for rain should mostly be post-frontal, coinciding with stronger height falls arriving later on Thursday. CAPE looks very minimal to non-existent, but strong shear and modest lapse rates could promote localized strong wind gusts with any shower or storm, though the probability of lightning is not high enough to mention in the forecast at this time. The full effects of the colder air mass will be felt on Friday when the NBM projects highs mainly in the 60s. The cyclonic flow regime on Friday could be conducive to diurnal convective shower activity, and a secondary vort max rounding the base of the trough could provide supplemental forcing. The low temperature forecast for Friday night/Saturday morning bears watching, with the NBM already advertising widespread lower to mid 40s and pockets of upper 30s. Cluster analysis shows strong support for regional surface high pressure, but a mixed signal on cloud potential, owing to uncertainty on the progression of the upper trough, which is also keeping low chances for rain in the forecast through Friday night. Ensemble spread begins to widen more greatly into early next week. There is a general theme for a rebounding of the western CONUS ridge over this time period, with ECMWF ensemble mean height fields more amplified than their GEFS counterparts. Aside from the potential for post frontal showers late Thursday through Friday, the chance of measurable rain through the long term period is near zero. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Possible reductions in vsby due to smoke west tonight but predictability too low to mention in KDIK or KXWA TAF. A westerly wind at KXWA and KDIK with a southerly wind at the remaining TAF sites to begin the TAF period. Winds diminishing this evening. A cold front will move east across the remaining TAF sites tonight through Tuesday morning, with All TAFS shifting westerly then northerly behind the cold front. Wind speeds light tonight and generally 15 mph or less Tuesday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...Hollan LONG TERM...Hollan AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Ample tropical moisture will continue to remain in place through the short term period. This mornings sounding showed PWATs of 2.20 inches with forecast PWATs remaining between 2 and 2.25 through Tuesday, especially across the lower Valley. This excess moisture along with a slowly sagging weak boundary will continue to lead to rain and some thunderstorm chances across Deep South Texas into tomorrow. So far today, most of the heavy activity has remained offshore, but showers and thunderstorms are still expected across the region. WPC maintains the slight risk of excessive rainfall for Cameron, Willacy and southern Hidalgo today, with a marginal risk for much of Deep South Texas on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to remain below normal through the period due to the excess cloud cover and continuing rain chances. Temperatures on Tuesday will be a touch warmer than today and top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Anywhere that sees sunshine could experience temperatures a bit higher than currently forecasted. Overnight lows will remain generally in the mid 70s both tonight and tomorrow night. Winds will also remain fairly light, though brief gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm activity. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Unsettled weather will stick around through mid week before drier air moves in, tapering rain chances off through late week. Temps will start off a few degrees below normal on Wednesday, gradually warming, but will stay near or just shy of seasonal averages. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain partially under the influence of a positively-tilted mid to upper level trough that will quickly become a cutoff low over Louisiana, spinning over the region into the weekend. The best chances for rain in the long term will be on Wednesday before precipitable water values drop below two inches and a shortwave rounds the base of the trough. As drier air filters in (especially in the mid to upper levels with the northerly flow as we sit on the southwestern side of the mid-level low), rain chances will taper off through the rest of the work week, but just enough moisture will remain to support daily sea-breezes, though coverage will be isolated, leaving most areas dry. The surface pressure gradient will remain very weak, supporting lighter winds that will likely be dominated by diurnal processes (easterly wind shifts with the sea breeze). Heading into the weekend, some difference will arise among the deterministic model guidance, but not too much. Both global models suggest clearing skies and lowering rain chances, even as another mid-level short wave trough dives into the Mississippi Valley. For now, used the NBM which brings isolated PoPs, at best, with the sea breeze each day through the weekend. Under this pattern, temperatures will remain below average initially with Wednesday being the coolest day (temperatures near 90 to the lower 90s across the RGV) before temperatures stabilize and recover to near normal thereafter. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Light rain from Mexico should affect MFE through the next few hours, while BRO and HRL remain dry. The HRRR model suggests that all aerodromes will encounter additional convection tomorrow, so a TEMPO for it has been included in the current issuance of TAFs. Overall, VFR should prevail through a majority of the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Now through Tuesday Night...Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the period that could lead to localized areas of elevated winds and seas along with downpours and occasional to frequent lightning. Otherwise, expect generally light wind and seas running around 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday through Saturday Night...A mid-level trough will sag south over the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the North Gulf late in the week. A mid-level low will cut off over Louisiana and a surface stationary front will lie over the North Gulf Coast. The surface pressure gradient will remain weak. Thus, light to moderate variable direction winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the long term. Due to the aforementioned destabilizing features, showers and thunderstorms will arise from time to time. Another mid-level trough will dive into the Lower Mississippi Valley late in the weekend, supporting persistent unsettled Gulf weather, absent small craft advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 90 77 90 / 60 70 50 70 HARLINGEN 75 88 74 89 / 60 70 30 50 MCALLEN 75 90 75 92 / 60 70 30 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 89 75 91 / 60 70 30 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 86 / 60 60 40 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 88 76 88 / 60 60 40 60 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Key Impact Messages: 1) Well above to record breaking temperatures likely to continue into Thursday. 2) Patchy areas of smoke and haze from wildfires across southern Idaho and northern California expected to increase across the region on Tuesday. 3) Critical fire weather conditions may be possible Thursday afternoon, especially across Carbon and Albany counties. Weather Details: Forecast remains on track as we will continue to sit under a large area of high pressure with 700mb temperatures hovering between 19-20C. The expanding thermal ridge moves into the region Tuesday and strengthens on Wednesday. Numerous record high temperatures could be broken over the next several days, see climate section below. Temperatures are expected to be in the 96-101 range along and east of the I-25 corridor and into the 100-105 range across the NE Panhandle over the next three days. Large wildfires across southern Idaho and northern California may bring some areas of patchy smoke and haze into the region this afternoon and into tomorrow. HRRR smoke model has been consistent in pushing a concentrated area of thick smoke across Carbon county by morning and moving it east through Laramie and into western Laramie county by late morning. This area of smoke my impact temperatures through the morning and bring some reduced visibility and maybe a window of poor air quality. HRRR diminishes this smoke by noon but another surge of smoke and haze expected to infiltrate into northern Wyoming. .LONG TERM...(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Latest model runs have remained consistent with a strong cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday, drastically dropping temperatures 15 to 20+ degrees. Forecast high temperatures Friday are upper 60s to low 70s in southeast Wyoming and 70s in the Nebraska panhandle. Scattered chances of showers mainly along and east of the Laramie Range through Friday, tapering off to the southeast Saturday morning. Saturday looks to be the coolest day in the upcoming long term forecast period with morning low temperatures sitting in the lower 40s and afternoon high temperatures in the 60s to 70s. As this frontal passage is still 6 to 7 days out, there is still low confidence in how this low pressure will evolve. Following the potential nice, fall temperatures, southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle dries out and warms up to the 80s again by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Tuesday evening) Issued at 535 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Strong upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern early this week. Generally light winds and limited, if any, cloud cover is expected to continue. Some smoke from the wild fires to the north may spread into the area from time to time, but no limitations in VIS expected at this time. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR condition expected tonight and Tuesday. Winds will become light and variable tonight with surface winds shifting into the east or southeast across the high plains terminals by 18z Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Well above to record high temperatures expected to continue through Thursday with critical minimum RH values between 10 to 15 percent with single digits RH values across Carbon County. Under the influence of a strong high pressure system, winds will be variable with erratic gusts during the afternoon hours. Wind and wind gusts should remain below criteria so no fire highlights are expected through Wednesday. An approaching strong cold front on Thursday will increase the winds significantly across Carbon county and parts of Albany county. Critical fire weather conditions may develop across these areas Thursday afternoon. && .CLIMATE...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Tue 9/6: City Forecast High Temp Record High Temp Cheyenne 96 deg F 91 deg F (2020) Scottsbluff 103 deg F 102 deg F (2013) Chadron 104 deg F 102 deg F (1998) Wed 9/7: City Forecast High Temp Record High Temp Cheyenne 97 deg F 90 deg F (1959) Scottsbluff 103 deg F 101 deg F (1908) Chadron 105 deg F 99 deg F (1931) Thu 9/8: City Forecast High Temp Record High Temp Cheyenne 94 deg F 91 deg F (1979) Scottsbluff 102 deg F 98 deg F (2013) Chadron 99 deg F 103 deg F (1959) && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...LK FIRE WEATHER...AW CLIMATE...LK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 No change in thoughts to prior update. UPDATE Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Breezy southerly winds are dwindling, and should dip to around 10 mph tonight. Skies are expected to remain clear sans elevated smoke which should stay aloft through tonight. Efficient radiational cooling is expected tonight, which may allow for some shallow, patchy radiational fog to form near an incoming sfc warm front from central ND where winds have the best chance of being calm. Expected timing of the front brings this fog potential from Devils Lake basin south to the Sheyenne and James River Valleys. However, given how dry the lowest levels are, impacts are generally not expected given its patchy and shallow nature. Thus, will opt to leave out of the forecast for now. There is some possibility elevated smoke could mix to the surface tomorrow west of the front as currently noted in eastern MT, however impacts from visibility and air quality reductions are not expected. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Impacts are not expected this afternoon or evening, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures generally in the middle 70s to low 80s. South to southeast winds prevail at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts reported as high as 40 mph, especially within the Red River Valley. Outside the Valley, we are seeing gusts range from 30 to 35 mph. Hazy skies are possible through the remainder of the afternoon and evening due to mid and upper level smoke advecting into the area. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke product keeps this above the boundary layer through at least the overnight hours; however, there could be a minor impact on temperatures this afternoon, as we are slightly below NBM forecast guidance thus far. The potential for smoke at the surface will be minimal. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be a bit warmer than last night, with lower 50s along the International Border and near 60 degrees in the southern Red River Valley. Heading into Tuesday, look for highs in the 80s across the region, along with breezy northwest winds for areas west of the Red River. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Not much in the forecast for impacts in the long term period. Mid- week will be quieter, with the possibility for some warmer temperatures on Thursday. Spread in the ensembles is high, so not too confident on how warm we could be for high temperatures. High pressure in the mid and upper levels will break down at the end of this week, allowing a trough to briefly pass through the area. The attendant cold front will bring in cooler temperatures, but the possibility for precipitation remains up in the air. Ensembles have not decided on a solution for where the most likely area for QPF is yet, so confidence is low on any precipitation forecasting in the area for Friday and Saturday. As of now though, any precipitation received looks to be minimal. The remainder of the weekend and into next work week looks to be more seasonal, with highs in the 70s across eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. After the trough exits, another period of quiet weather will begin. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 No change in thoughts to 06Z TAFS from 00Z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will shift westerly to northerly behind an incoming front from central ND, although generally expected to remain under 12 kt through tomorrow afternoon. Elevated smoke will linger across much of the region throughout the period, and generally remains above 6 kft. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...Lynch LONG TERM...AK AVIATION...CJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Morning) Issued at 136 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 High pressure continues to dominate the High Plains as virtually no cloud cover is present across the area. Surface troughing is resulting in a tighter pressure gradient across west Kansas/east Colorado resulting in occasional gusts approaching 25 knots; the weak wind field is however limiting any gusts from going higher. The overall forecast for today remains on track currently. Mainly clear skies will continue into tonight with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 50s with winds becoming more southwesterly. Tuesday will be nearly identical to today other than warmer and drier conditions being present. Winds will become more southwesterly allowing drier air to advect into the area which will lead to RH values in the low to mid teens mainly along and west of a Tribune to McCook line. The surface trough will be further SE than today but not as pinched. The wind field is relatively similar to today, but due to the lack of pressure gradient think winds won`t be quite as breezy as today with gusts around 20 knots. Elevated fire weather will again be expected mainly along and west of a Cheyenne Wells to Trenton line. High temperatures are currently forecasted to be in the mid 90s to low 100s with overnight lows falling into the mid 50s. Overnight lows may need to be lowered a bit more as radiational cooling may play a role as in previous nights with dew points n the mid 40s to low 50s. A concern I currently have in this scenario is that winds won`t be light enough for optimal radiational cooling to occur despite the clear skies, went with a blend of the 5th and 25th NBM percentile to lower temperatures some. There may be some hazy skies during the afternoon as smoke from western CONUS fires gets transported via the eastern periphery of the ridge into the areas, the 12Z HRRR Vertically Integrated Smoke supports this as well. I am refraining from introducing into the forecast currently as observations across southern Montana and the Black Hills don`t show much impact. There are some less than 9SM visibilities being reported in southern Montana, but they are closer to the fires so will that magnitude of haze be able to advect down into the Tri- State area. Wednesday looks to be relatively uneventful as the high pressure is firmly over the plains. Hot temperatures and low RH values look to be present as afternoon highs again reach the mid 90s to low 100s. Winds will however be light (less than 10 knots) which will mitigate and potential wildfire spread. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Thu: Dry conditions and above normal temps will persist.. via synoptic subsidence assoc/w a de-amplifying upper level ridge situated over the Intermountain West, 4-Corners, and central Rockies -- extending eastward across the Central Plains. Fri-Mon: A pattern transition will occur in this period as an amplifying upper level trough.. arising from a complex amalgamation of shortwave energy in western/central Canada.. digs southward into the Northern Plains, supplanting the aforementioned ridge. Meanwhile, an upper level low -- presently centered invof Ark-La-Tex -- will meander S-SSE and stall invof the TX/LA/MS/AL Gulf Coast through the remainder of the work week. This feature could [perhaps] interact with the amplifying northern stream trough late this week.. introducing additional complexity to the forecast. Broadly speaking.. expect a cool-down in this period.. as surface pressure rises on the western /subsident/ periphery of the aforementioned trough drives a cool Canadian airmass southward through the Northern and Central Plains Fri-Fri night. Forecast specifics -- e.g. timing of the cold frontal passage, whether or not precipitation will accompany the front, the southernmost extent of the front, magnitude/degree of cooling, and longevity of this cooler airmass (over the weekend) -- cannot reasonably be ascertained at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 KGLD expects to see VFR conditions during the 00Z TAF period starting with southerly winds around 10 kts before the winds become southwesterly around 8 kts by 08Z. At 15Z, KGLD sees winds become variable around 6 kts for the remainder of the period. KMCK also sees VFR conditions during the 00Z TAF period beginning with southerly winds around 10 kts before the winds become variable around 6 kts by 08Z. At 23Z, KMCK winds become northeasterly around 10 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...076
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1112 PM EDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls across southern New England tonight, bringing cool and wet conditions. Heavier showers and storms may bring some localized flooding concerns in southern and coastal areas that receive multiple rounds of rain. Drier air gradually returns from the north Tuesday, which will culminate in a mostly sunny and warm second half of the week under high pressure and upper level ridging. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 1112 PM Update...Incoming 00Z guidance suggests moderate to heavy rain over SW New England will start to push northwards with heavier rainfall rates moving into southern New Hampshire after midnight. The last few runs of the HRRR focus the heaviest rain across the Cheshire and and Hillsborough Counties with pockets of heavy rain spreading east-northeastward into the southern White Mountains and extreme western Maine. The greatest threat for additional flood concerns will be across the southern tier of counties in New Hampshire. While pockets of moderate to heavy rain may cross areas that were hardest hit earlier today from the Conway, NH area into southern Oxford County, additional rainfall looks to stay under 1 inch with rates generally less than 0.25 inches per hour. The overall trend has been for dry northerly flow to win out thus far, with a downward trend for flood concerns across northern and eastern portions of the Flood Watch. Have decided to not make any changes to current Flood Watch and will reassess for the morning forecast package. Main changes to the going forecast was to fine tune PoPs based on latest guidance and remove thunder as there has been little to no lightning observations with the heavy rain over SW New England. Have also confined heavy rainfall wording to where the greatest threat for heavy rain looks to be and removed heavy rainfall wording across portions of central Maine. Previously... 7 PM Update... Have updated the forecast this evening as rain continues to cross the region. Heavier echoes will continue to enter western New England before reaching southern and central New Hampshire and parts of far southwestern Maine. This is supported by the latest mesoscale models. Drier air will enter northern areas overnight, ending the precipitation. Rain, heavy at times will continue across the south along with patchy fog. Made minor adjustments to temperatures with this update which will not move much overnight. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Continuing to monitor periods of moderate to heavy rainfall crossing the area which will continue into the overnight hours. Plenty of moisture both at the surface and aloft will combine with an upper level disturbance to produce the wet conditions in a very high PWAT environment. We remain in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall all the way to the Canadian border where cells trained earlier in the day. There remains the possibility of thunderstorms as well, mainly over southern New Hampshire. This precipitation will be relatively slow moving and parallel with the upper level flow. Therefore, training remains possible with locally heavy rainfall. Flood watches remain in effect for southern and central areas. Patchy fog remains a good bet overnight with all of the moisture in place. Overnight lows will not be that far from their current levels with the cold air damming continuing across the region. Expect widespread 50s by morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Drier air will gradually filter in from the north on Tuesday, confining the rain to southern New Hampshire by afternoon. There will be patchy fog in the morning. Sunshine can be expected over northern and eastern areas with the aforementioned drying. This will allow northern areas to have the warmest after temperatures with highs reaching the upper 60s. Lower 60s can be expected due to the cloud cover over southern zones. Drier air will continue to slowly enter the region Tuesday night as the upper level trough exits to our south. There will still be sufficient moisture to allow for more patchy fog. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overview: Surface high pressure will build over New England on Wednesday, allowing for a return to drier conditions and near seasonable temperatures. A weak cold front will then approach from the west on Thursday but other than an isolated shower across the north and mountains, most places will remain dry. Continued dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures are then expected until Monday as upper level ridging settles in overhead. Impacts: No major weather related impacts expected through the extended. Forecast Details: Surface high pressure will begin to build over northern New England on Wednesday, which will help to finally push the front responsible for the earlier week`s rainfall southward. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with high temperatures primarily into the 70s and lows into the 40s to 50s from north to south. A weak cold front will approach western zones on Thursday, which may result in an isolated shower across mainly the north and mountains but most areas will remain dry under partly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures. Gradually warming temperatures to a little above average are then expected for the end of the week as upper level ridging moves over the eastern CONUS. Our next chance for showers looks to not arrive until at least Sunday night and into Monday as high pressure begins to be pushed offshore ahead of a closed low over the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR conditions expected tonight in all areas with periods of heavy rain and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly over southern New Hampshire. Patchy fog will continue under a northeast wind. Drier air will gradually filter into the region on Tuesday from north to south, however low ceilings will allow for IFR or lower conditions to continue. IFR conditions will continue Tuesday night over southern areas with VFR conditions developing in the north outside of patchy fog. Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate through the extended, although some patchy BR/FG on Wednesday night may result in some localized restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Northeast winds will continue over the waters, gusting to near SCA thresholds by Tuesday. There will be patchy fog and limiting visibilities at times. Seas along the outer waters will run 3 to 4 feet. Long Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday through Friday night before seas build to 4-6 ft on Saturday as a result of a tropical low pressure system well offshore. && .HYDROLOGY... Have made some adjustments to the total rainfall map for our region. Highest totals have been in the North Conway area where added upslope has enhanced the rainfall in that region. Also, portions of Oxford County have received over 3 inches of rain as of 2240Z. A Flood Watch continues for portions of the forecast area tonight and into tomorrow. An anomalously moist airmass (PWATs on the order of 1.75-2.0 inches) and very deep warm cloud layers (12-14 kft) are indicative of an airmass conducive to efficient warm rain processes, so long as sufficient forcing is available. Further, weak low- and mid-level flow is leading to slow storm movement which will lead to localized high rainfall amounts. An upper level trough will approach the region overnight. This will bring steady precipitation to southern areas tonight and into tomorrow which will lead to a persistent rainfall across southern zones, steadily dropping south out of the area on Tuesday. Pockets of heavy rain will likely lead to ponding on roadways and flooding in low-lying, poorly-drained, and urban areas... with embedded convection and associated high rainfall rates leading to flash flooding potential due to runoff. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ012-018>021-023>027- 033. NH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NHZ004-006. Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NHZ008>015. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schroeter NEAR TERM...Cannon SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 A slow moving storm system will continue to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into Tuesday, primarily in areas near and south of I-72. As we get into mid week, high pressure will control our weather for a few days, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s for highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 The region remains under the influence of an upper level low, which was evident in water vapor imagery north of Lafayette, IN, at 0130z/830pm. A weak frontal zone in place across southern IL/IN has resulted in scattered showers and storms south of I-70, but these have been weakening and are expected to dissipate shortly. The main focus this evening has been evaluating the fog potential for overnight. Despite northeasterly winds in the post-frontal airmass, dewpoints remain relatively moist, in the mid-60s. Current satellite imagery shows a broken cloud deck in place across much of central IL, but some clearing across north-central IL. The latest guidance trended towards greater cloud coverage overnight, which would limit fog development, but the clearing across north-central IL leaves some uncertainty. Still think low stratus will be more prevalent across the CWA early tomorrow morning, but patchy fog will be possible in any areas that see prolonged clearing, and the current thinking is that areas northwest of Bloomington have the best chance at fog development tonight. Expanded the patchy fog mention in the gridded package, but otherwise no major changes were made at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the upper level circulation has drifted south to near Kankakee, while the surface boundaries remain closer to the Ohio River. Most of the rain activity of late has been near these boundaries, from the St. Louis area to south of Lawrenceville. Latest HRRR keeps most of the activity near and south of I-70 through sunset, though stray showers can`t be ruled out north toward I-72 or so. With the surface low sliding along the Ohio Valley, additional showers will be possible on Tuesday across the southeast CWA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Main challenge in the extended period remains with the evolution of the deep upper wave that will be dropping into the northern Plains Thursday night and Friday. GFS and European models are coming into better consensus in closing off an upper low near Kansas City later in the weekend, while the Canadian solution favors a position over the western Great Lakes. Initial surge of rain chances will begin toward Saturday, as moisture surges north from the Gulf courtesy an upper low over Louisiana, then additional rain chances arrive with the northern wave on Sunday. Temperature-wise, mid to late week will be the warmest, with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s. GFS and European ensembles are in good agreement with a significant cooldown Sunday and Monday with 2-meter temperature anomalies of 4 to 6 degrees F below normal, potentially lingering into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 MVFR ceilings have finally started to rise, and any lingering MVFR cloud decks should gradually climb to VFR over the next hour or two. The main concern for the rest of the TAF period is the potential for low stratus and/or fog overnight. Guidance has trended towards greater cloud coverage and lower ceilings, with widespread IFR ceilings possible between 10-13z. Most confident in IFR conditions occurring at CMI/BMI, but may need to expand to all terminals next TAF cycle if trends continue. Ceilings rise during the morning Tuesday, reaching VFR around midday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Erwin SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Erwin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
537 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Warming each day through Thursday, then chances for showers return Friday and the weekend. The low clouds and fog were slow to dissipate this morning from St. Cloud southward to Mankato and St. James, but sufficient mixing has since allowed that to happen. Scattered to broken CU should dissipate some this evening with the loss of heating. The set up for tonight doesn`t look quite as good for regeneration of low clouds and fog on a widespread basis, but patches remain possible. Temperatures will warm through Thursday this week as mid level ridging builds in. As a cold front approaches late week, thermal ridging will arrive Thursday, characterized by 925 mb temps of +25 to +30C. The GFS, of course, is way too hot with highs in the 105-110 degree range across MN. However, even the NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF would suggest highs well into the 90s across most of MN, with the possibility of 100 in the typical downslope areas of west central MN. The forecast highs were increased a few degrees toward the higher end of the ensemble envelope given the relatively dry airmass expected, and the tendency for such situations this time of year to overachieve. The cold front will arrive Thursday night and Friday morning. No precipitation is expected along and ahead of the front, but some post-frontal showers are likely to form Friday and Friday night. It doesn`t look like the thunder threat will be too great given the cooler airmass behind the front and the poor lapse rates aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 526 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Some VFR cigs around 3.5 to 5.0 kft will slowly diminish overnight across portions of central/southern Mn, and adjacent west-central Wi. Otherwise, the only concern is the smoke layer moving across the Dakotas and into Minnesota overnight, and into Tuesday. The latest HRRR suggest that this smoke layer will become denser across western Mn toward morning with cigs around 10.0 to 15.0 kft. I have introduced SCT150 based on the smoke layer, but this could become more of an opaque layer if conditions warrant. KMSP... No other concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G35 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind NNE 15-20G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...JLT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
746 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 746 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Updated to remove previous flood watch references from suite of forecast products. Mentioned continuation of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern and southeastern portions of mid state region through mid evening hours. Tweaked currently hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted mid to late evening hourly gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted low values for tonight. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Upper trough is situated to our west this afternoon and already the deepest moisture is sliding off to the east. The heavy rainfall that justified keeping the current Flash Flood Watch in place until this evening has not materialized. At this time, there is very little active weather in Middle Tennessee, and the HRRR has consistently shown only scattered cells the remainder of the afternoon. POP`s will further diminish tonight, but look for more widespread activity tomorrow as the upper trough swings across the mid state. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Rain chances and QPF values look to be quite anemic from Wednesday through Friday, but then increase starting Friday night as a strong upper low migrates northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and pushes a fresh swath of moisture into Middle Tennessee. So this weekend could be another rainy one. The rainy pattern could persist into next week as neither the GFS nor the Euro is in a hurry to push the upper low/shortwave away from Middle Tennessee, although the GFS keeps a great deal more moisture over the area than the Euro. Temperatures through the 7-day forecast period look to stay close to seasonal normals. So the latest 6-10 day outlook favoring near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall appears justified. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2022 Shower coverage has decreased this evening with a few isolated pockets of rain developing, but they seem to be dodging any terminals for now. The main focus late tonight through tomorrow morning will be fog development thanks to very saturated surface conditions and calming winds. All sites could see reduced visibilities, especially CKV where skies are clearing at this hour. Even with some mid to high clouds hanging around, BNA and MQY could still see MVFR vis develop. CSV is most likely to see IFR visibilities and ceilings late tonight through Tuesday morning and it could be the afternoon hours before clouds lift to VFR heights at that terminal. Some showers will be possible again on Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 85 68 84 / 10 60 20 50 Clarksville 67 82 67 82 / 10 50 20 30 Crossville 65 80 64 77 / 50 50 20 60 Columbia 68 85 67 83 / 20 50 20 40 Cookeville 67 82 66 80 / 50 60 20 50 Jamestown 65 79 64 77 / 20 60 20 60 Lawrenceburg 68 84 67 82 / 50 50 20 40 Murfreesboro 68 86 67 84 / 40 50 20 40 Waverly 68 84 67 83 / 10 40 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Whitehead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Upper level ridge remains over Idaho in the short term period with continue very hot conditions through Tuesday with low elevation highs in the 90s again with some locations reaching 100 degrees again. Winds will generally be light on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Heat advisories remain in effect with the continued pattern of high temperatures around 15 degrees above normal for early September. Will see 20 to 30 mph wind gusts this afternoon and evening in the Snake River Plain which will diminish quickly by sunset. Another couple of days of extreme heat is the impact short term. GK .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... High pressure and a long-duration heat wave continue, with Wed perhaps the hottest day of the week (97 to 102 in the Heat Advisory area). Both deterministic and ensemble model data are finally starting to show some better agreement in a broad trough cutting down the ridge and crossing the region Thu/Fri (although 500mb height cluster analysis still suggests some timing uncertainty). A few showers/t-storms may accompany this in the Upper Snake Highlands and portions of the ern highlands, but otherwise a dry/diffuse frontal passage is expected. Highs Fri may only reach 75-85 degrees! Late this weekend into early next week, some models hint at moisture from Tropical Storm Javier being pulled north toward our region between high Plains shortwave ridging and a PacNW trough (perhaps in tandem with a weak monsoon push), but confidence remains low. The NBM now trends PoPs away from Sun and more toward Mon/Tue. 01 && .AVIATION... High pressure continues to support hot, VFR conditions across SE Idaho. Diurnal winds may yet again manage to gust to 20-25kts today (lower at KBYI), but winds will trend lighter Tue and Wed. Wildfire smoke impacts have largely remained north of the TAF terminals, but based on this AM`s obs and the HRRR have added a low-confidence mention of 5SM FU tonight into Tue AM at KSUN, KIDA, and KDIJ. 01 && .FIRE WEATHER... Will have 20 to 30 mph wind gusts this afternoon mainly in zone 410 which will die down by sunset. Expect hot and very dry conditions Tuesday with winds subsiding. Upper ridge collapses beginning Wednesday as upper level wave and associated cold front work through Wednesday through Thursday. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for zones 475 and 476 for gust winds and low humidity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions will continue Thursday wtih the highest winds in the Snake Plain and zone 410 and 425 as well as 427 and 413 and may need highlights for winds on Thursday as well although humidity will rise quite a bit with much cooler conditions expected Thursday behind a cold front although they will still be quite low. The cooler but still well above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend. Some of the operational long term models are indicating the potential for some rain next week. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051>059-075. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for IDZ475-476. && $$