Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/05/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region
into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its
wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will
transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with
the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather
returns for mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 9:30pm...our cold front has stalled just south of I-90 as
can be seen in the latest radar mosaic where a conveyor belt of
showers has lined up along with a wind shift to the north noted
just of these showers while winds are still out of the south or
southwest. Despite the wind shift to the north, the stratus and
cooler temperatures are still well to the north in the North
Country since the frontal zone is very gradually sloped. The
boundary should sink a bit further south over night but should
remain somewhere between Albany and Poughkeepsie. Thanks to the
northerly winds, temperatures will continue to drop into the
upper 50s to low 60s north of the front by sunrise with mid 60s
south of the boundary.
A few shortwaves will likely ride along the stalled boundary
overnight resulting in periodic showers. Better chance for more
organized showers should hold off until closer to 09 - 12 UTC
per the latest HRRR and RAP guidance. High res NAM is actually
even drier and holds off the organized shower activity until
tomorrow midday/P.M. Adjusted POPs downwards a bit tonight from
likely to chance based on these trends but with showers already
in west/central NY tracking westward, maintained chance POPs
before trending to likely by 09 - 12 UTC.
Previous discussion...After a lull in activity during the late
evening hours, a more widespread area of showers will move into
the region from west to east overnight as forcing increases with
the approach of the upper-level trough. Confidence was high
enough to expand likely pops across most areas toward daybreak
Monday. Otherwise, it will be a cloudy night with lows in the
mid-50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to drift southward and slow or
stall on Monday as the continuation of the upper-level trough
and upper-level energy will result in continuous rounds of
showers and possible thunderstorms. Instability will be very
limited with precipitable water values remaining high and
between 1.25 and 1.75 inches. This should lead to a lack of
severe weather potential and more of a heavy rain threat. A
slight risk for excessive rainfall continues for areas mainly
along and south of I-90 where the heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur.
Monday should be a rather cloudy and cool day with the rain
around for much of the day with high temperatures only in the
60s for most areas. If there are enough breaks in the rain
across far southern areas, some lower to mid-70s are possible.
Showers or even periods of rain will continue through Monday
night with the steadiest and heaviest rain expected to be across
the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield
County. Northern areas are expected to begin to dry out. Lows
will reach the mid-50s to lower 60s.
Low pressure tracking along the front near the Mason Dixon line
will continue to bring some rain showers to southern areas on
Tuesday with little or no rain across the north. Precipitation
intensity should begin to wane over time with precipitation
generally coming to an end by Tuesday night.
The heaviest rainfall continues to be focused for the southern
half of the area with storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
common with some locally higher amounts where the most
persistent bands of heavy rain exist. Areas farther to the north
will be more displaced from the higher moisture and forcing, so
1 inch or less is expected in these areas.
The clouds and showers will lead to another cool day Tuesday
with highs once again in the 60s for most, though a few lower
70s cannot be ruled out. Partial clearing Tuesday night can
result in some patchy fog and should lead to a slightly cooler
night with upper 40s to upper 50s favored for low temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period features fair weather and a gradual
increase in daily high temperatures as surface high pressure
encircles the region.
While the majority of the forecast period will be dominated by
upper/mid level ridging and surface high pressure, the beginning
of the term sees a more complicated pattern aloft. In the mid
and upper levels, the pattern consists of weak ridging over the
Northeast initially and a weak closed low developing across the
Deep South and Tennessee River Valley while shortwave energy
that enters western Canada results in deepening trough
developing across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes
Region. As the trough approaches, the ridging across the
Northeast is expected to strengthen.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected Wednesday before gradual
rising heights and dominant high pressure give way to increasing
temperatures throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s below
1500 feet and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher
terrain. Temperatures should rise by just a few degrees
Thursday, and by Friday, a return to high temperatures in the
80s below 1000ft is expected. High temperatures are expected to
remain in the range of low to mid 80s through the weekend. Low
temperatures look to be seasonable, ranging in the 50s
throughout the period. Dew points should be relatively
comfortable in the 50s before increasing slightly to the upper
50s to low 60s Saturday ahead of a possible late weekend cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Currently, all TAF sites are VFR with overcast cloud layers at
varying heights. Winds are not greater than 10 knots with
northerly flow at ALB/KPSF, VRB at POU, and northeasterly at
GFL. Decreasing visibilities and increased cloud cover can be
expected at all sites throughout the TAF period as the impending
cold front approaches the region and causes widespread showers.
As the aforementioned cold front stalls to the south of our
region, clouds will thicken, leading to MVFR ceilings. Moisture
injected into the region from the west will give way to
widespread chances for scattered to isolated showers. For
Monday, confidence in precipitation over the area increases
especially during the afternoon hours. As far as the TAF sites,
forecast models continue to favor areas along and south of I-90
in receiving most of the precipitation. From tonight and
especially during the day on Monday, expect for mainly MVFR
ceilings over the TAF sites. Any showers or storms that move
over the terminals will have the capabilities of briefly
reducing flight categories to IFR/LIFR levels.
As far as winds, expect for light and variable winds to continue
until the cold front passes which will them shift things out of
the north at 5-10 kts.
Outlook...
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region
into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its
wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will
transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with
the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather
returns for mid to late week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region
into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its
wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will
transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with
the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather
returns for mid to late week.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for areas south
of I-90 through Tuesday morning with some locally higher
amounts. Rainfall rates of 0.50-0.75"/hour could occur during
this time and could persist in some of these locations for a
few hours if bands of heavy rain develop and track over the same
areas.
The Weather Prediction Center maintains the southern half of
the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 2
outlook (Monday/Monday night). The rain and embedded
thunderstorms that occur could produce locally heavy rainfall
and, due to the mean flow nearly paralleling the front, training
of storms can occur. Therefore, minor flooding in urban as well
as in low-lying and poor drainage areas and isolated flash
flooding are possible. No river flooding is forecast at this
time.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...IAA/Gant
AVIATION...MSE/Gant
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1056 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Quick update just to freshen pops a bit. Convection looks to be
holding farther north as thought, at least for the time being.
UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Not real excited about convection over the north central late
this evening into the overnight hours given the dry atmosphere and
warm temperatures aloft. However we have seen a few lightning
strikes in the past 30 minutes or so over Renville county. This
area of high based activity will continue to scoot east
overnight. Models also continue to develop convection south as
forcing from the upper low currently north of Minot, meets up with
warm advection from an increasing low level jet. Currently 40
knot winds are indicated on the KBIS and KMBX radars. Current
satellite imagery shows the upper low near Kenmare. Latest RAP and
and new NAM look to have this upper circulation too far west
compared to it`s current location. Thus am wondering if this is
the reason for convection developing farther south later tonight.
Given the current location and eastward track, would think that
the best forcing from the upper low may not meet up with the
increasing low level jet. Latest RAP are not as far south with
convection as their 00Z iterations and other 00Z CAMS like the NAM
Nest and ARW. We made some minor updates to pops blending the
latest RAP/HRRR guidance with the NBM, basically keeping
shower/thunderstorm activity from dropping quite so far south.
Will update the HWO to reflect the chances for thunderstorms.
Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. Updated
text products will be transmitted shortly.
UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
A warm front is situated over far western ND. Winds have shifted
westerly over far western ND and eastern MT with lighter winds
speeds. Strong southeast winds continue across the remainder of
western and central ND. Mid level clouds generally 14-18KFT
associated with a compact upper level circulation continue to move
from northwest into north central ND. CAMS continue to indicate
possible shower/thunderstorm activity later this evening as this
feature moves into central ND. Currently we have some slight
chance pops in the forecast. Will tweak these with latest guidance
but generally no significant changes here. Elsewhere skies remain
mostly clear, but smoke looks to be on the increase from the west
tonight into Labor Day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Warm conditions continue through the short term, with a few
thunderstorms possible tonight.
Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to be found across
the area through the evening. Low RH values combined with a breezy
south southeast wind will bring some near critical fire weather
conditions through the evening. A few sites may even see some
critical fire danger at times, although this should be isolated
and may not meet the time requirement of a Red Flag Warning. Thus
will hold off on any highlights for now. Natural Color RGB
satellite showing nicely wildfire smoke being pulled into the
upper low across Montana. Look for this to enter into western
North Dakota by this evening. Tonight, this mentioned low moves
across the state. This could continue smoke across the west, while
bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
north and central. There is still some MUCAPE, modest mid level
lapse rates, and decent shear. However, dewpoints are fairly low.
Thus severe weather is not expected tonight, although cannot rule
out a strong wind gusts through the night, and perhaps some small
hail during initial thunderstorm development. Lows generally look
to be in the 50s tonight. Dry conditions will bring only fair RH
recoveries, especially to western portions.
Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should diminish by Labor
Day morning. The rest of Labor Day then looks to be warm and dry.
Near critical fire weather conditions could once again return,
mainly in the west where breezy west winds meet low RH. Breezy
southerly winds may linger in the east, although RH values should
remain fair. Central areas will see low RH, yet lighter winds.
Highs for Labor Day will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Of concern
will also be the potential for wildfire smoke. Many areas could at
least see some form of hazy conditions from smoke, while areas
across the west that get a westerly wind could see smoke lower to
the surface.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Warm and dry conditions continue until a potential break down of
the ridge later this week.
Amplified ridge across the inner mountain west will continue to
maintain warm and dry conditions across the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. A weak dry front may come through sometime Tuesday
night into Wednesday, perhaps lowering temperatures a touch yet
still maintaining above normal conditions. RH values look to be
low each day, possibly bringing some near critical fire weather
conditions, although winds at this time look to remain on the
lighter side.
Day 4 and 5 cluster analysis starting to come in line of a
(perhaps temporary) break down in the ridge as a large trough and
cold front comes through sometime Thursday into Friday. A head of
this front on likely Thursday will be warm and breezy conditions.
This could perhaps bring more near critical fire weather
conditions. Once the front moves through sometime Thursday night
into Friday, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible.
The quick nature of this front will not allow for high amounts of
qpf. And a check at the CSU-MLP, the chances for severe weather
look low at this time. Day 6 and 7 cluster analysis then start to
differ. Many support the trough sticking around bringing cooler
yet mainly dry conditions. There are still some hints the ridge
returns quicker. Perhaps by the late weekend. This is currently
reflected late in the forecast period with temperatures going from
the 70s Friday and Saturday back into the 80s Sunday. Even if the
trough lingers, a lack of moisture will provide for a mainly dry
forecast through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Near surface smoke may impact KDIK and KXWA. LLWS to impact KMOT,
KBIS and KJMS.
VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. The
exception could be late tonight into Labor Day morning as forecast
models indicate an increase in near surface smoke over western ND.
For now included minimal reductions to VSBY with 6SM vsby in smoke
at KDIK and KXWA. The latest observation from beach is down to 4
miles so there is the possibility of visibility reductions due to
smoke in the west. Elsewhere smoke is expected to remain aloft
with no VSBY reductions.
Moderate southeast flow will remain ahead of an advancing frontal
boundary currently near KXWA and just west of KDIK. as the
boundary moves east stronger surface winds will diminish and shift
southwest to west. This is expected to occur at KDIK overnight,
at KMOT and KBIS Monday afternoon, and late afternoon to early
evening Monday at KJMS. Late tonight into Monday morning, before
this wind shift occurs, there will be a period of LLWS at KBIS,
KMOT and KJMS with strong southerly winds to around 40 knots just
above the surface.
Thunderstorm activity in the north central has moved east of
Minot so no need to include VCTS at KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
852 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area early this week. A cold
front will slowly move through and likely stall in the vicinity
mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A rather expansive area of showers with a few embedded tstms is
approaching the Altamaha River. This activity is associated with
a well-defined outflow boundary that has been propagating
northeast across far Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
over the past few hours. While the atmosphere ahead of this
activity has stabilized somewhat, enough mixed-layer
instability is in place to keep some of this going for the next
few hours as it slowly weakens. The latest H3R and RAP both
suggest this boundary could reach as far northeast as Savannah
with activity gradually weakening with time as it approaches the
metro area. This scenario looks reasonable given current radar
trends. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect 60-70% pops over
McIntosh, Long and Liberty Counties with 40-50% pops over the
Savannah Metro Area.
Guidance still supports a redevelopment of convection along the
Georgia coast prior to daybreak as coastal convergence builds
as the low-level flow backs slightly. Lows from the lower 70s
inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches and Downtown
Charleston look on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The western periphery of an offshore upper ridge will remain over
the region through the period. A narrow trough to the west with an
embedded low across the Midwest will redevelop southward over Texas.
At the surface, high pressure across eastern Canada will extend into
the southern regions. Monday will feature a weak surface trough
which will make up for the lack of forcing and will aid in the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
coastal waters in the morning. Convection should then begin to
become more widespread and shift inland through the day with a
progressive sea breeze. With PWATS incredibly high Monday, upwards
of 2.3" in some areas, heavy downpours are possible which will at
least lead to localized minor flooding. Widespread evaporative
cooling from rainfall should temper the highs in the mid to upper
80s Monday.
The higher moisture content will gradually diminish over the next
couple of days, lowering the risk factor for heavy rains/flooding.
Subtle influence from ridging aloft will suppress widespread
convection, although isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
both Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the afternoon. Warmer
temperatures are expected both days, reaching near 90F or the lower
90s across most locations. Lows will only dip into the mid 70s
across most places, and warmer along the beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough with an embedded closed low over ArkLaTex will
become more expansive into the weekend, continuously pulling in deep
Gulf moisture. With the forecast area positioned within the
downstream flow of the upper trough, large scale forcing will be
plentiful. A weak cold front looks to press into the region early in
the period which is expected to eventually stall across or near the
coast by the end of the week. Due to these combination of factors,
we are expecting an active, wet pattern through the weekend. This
will help moderate temperatures, with highs topping out in the mid
80s. Min temps will remain relatively mild in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Convection should largely be over by issuance
time for the 00z TAF cycle. VFR will prevail for much of the
period. Scattered showers and possibly a tstm or two are
expected to reform along the Georgia coast prior to daybreak,
possibly extending as far north as KNBC, KARW and KHXD. While
most of this should remain east of KSAV, it will be close
enough (within 5-10SM) to justify a VCSH roughly 09-12z. No
mention will be include at KCHS or KJZI. Similar to today,
another round of showers/tstms are expected to develop along
the coast and push inland as the day progresses. Much of this
activity looks to remain south of KCHS and KJZI, but could
impact KSAV early-mid afternoon. VCSH will be highlighted 17z on
for KSAV, but mention will be included at either Charleston
terminal.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are possible
at any time due to showers/thunderstorms and in the early mornings
due to fog/stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: East to southeast around 10 kt will prevail with seas
2-3 ft.
Monday through Friday: Onshore flow will continue early this week as
high pressure extends into the area. A cold front will then move
into the region and likely stall during the middle to later parts of
the week. Aside from any showers/thunderstorms, no real marine
concerns with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet.
Rip Currents: A 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds being generated from
distant tropical cyclone Earl combined with occasional onshore winds
will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents at all of our beaches
starting on Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of the upcoming perigee, full moon, swell from
distant tropical cyclone Earl, and occasional onshore winds will
lead to elevated tides. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed
starting the middle of next week.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
915 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Update: The Red Flag Warning for portions of the area this evening
has expired as relative humidity begins to recover with light
winds expected tonight. Critical fire weather conditions will
repeat for Monday for much of the region. Otherwise, haze and
smoke will continue to be an issue at times tonight per HRRR
near surface guidance. Vertically integrated smoke will remain
elevated into Monday with some improvement near surface during the
day, but it may take until a cold front pushes through by Monday
evening into Monday night before conditions markedly improve.
Previous Discussion:
Disturbance that brought clouds across the northern zones this
morning/early afternoon is pushing off to our east. The semi-
permanent upper ridge over the western states will resume it`s
reign over the area and keep things hot and dry across the area
another day. Critical fire weather conditions look certain for
most of the fire weather district.
But the flow across Montana late Monday becomes zonal and
introduces a cold front. Temps will "cool" to the 80s to around 90
then the upper ridge brings back the warmer conditions for
Wednesday. Look for highs in the 90s east to near 100 west.
Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible, especially if winds
strengthen.
The spine of the upper ridge then looks to break-down a bit as
temps cool into Friday. Look for temps to cool closer to normal
with the slight possibility for showers.
The upper ridge looks to rebound a bit next Sunday with highs in
the 80s to near 90. TFJ
&&
.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 1930Z
FLIGHT CAT: VFR but Slantwise visibility will be limited due to
wildfire smoke. MVFR conditions are possible by 6 PM.
Smoke will gradually clear out to our east this evening. Mainly
clear skies are expected through Labor Day.
WIND: West diminishing to 10 kts or less this evening. West winds
then increase by Monday afternoon to 10-20 kts.
EQUIPMENT: While the KGDV visibility sensor is down, amendments
will be limited to clouds and wind for this terminal.
TFJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity as low as 10 percent and west winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 30 mph in the presence of very dry fuels will
again lead to critical fire conditions for much of the region on
Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 pm MOnday
for FWZs 134, 135, 136, 120, and 122.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1057 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy conditions will continue into this evening with scattered
showers and storms as a slow moving front pushes down from
Canada. This front will stall over southern New England
providing a cool, cloudy, and showery Labor Day for our region.
Drier air gradually returns from the north Tuesday, which will
culminate in a mostly sunny and warm second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1055 PM Update...Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity
has dissipated as of late this Sunday evening. However, one area
still exists across northern Carroll County in NH into adjacent
western ME. These will eventually lessen in intensity but for
another hour or two, heavy rainfall rates will be likely. This
is currently covered by a flood advisory. Elsewhere, mainly dry
weather is expected. However, with such a moist air mass in
place, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
could pop up at anytime with the attendant threat for heavy
rainfall.
645 PM Update...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue across the forecast area at this time, mainly along a
line roughly from Augusta ME southwestward to northern Cheshire
County in NH. A few of these storms could become strong or
marginally severe over the next 2 hours or so. But overall, the
main threat will be brief heavy downpours.
Previously...
The latest HRRR and Namnest solutions continue to bring
scattered convection over portions of the forecast area at least
through this evening. Warm and moist conditions will continue
this evening with dew points remaining in the 60s. Thereafter,
slightly drier conditions will enter northern areas, but still
with a chance for showers during the night as a cold front
slowly pushes south of our region.
There will be some patchy fog overnight, mostly over portions of
southern and central New Hampshire.
There will be quite a large range in temperatures overnight.
Look for only 40s in the north to the 50s and lower 60s in
southern locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As an upper level trough approaches the region on Monday, the
chances for shower activity will increase. The highest pops will
be in southern and central areas near an areas of deep
moisture. However, scattered showers will be possible in
northern areas as well as a weak wave of low pressure forms
along the frontal zone.
The low clouds and moisture will keep temperatures fairly
steady during the day, hovering in the 50s to lower 60s in most
locations. By Monday night, the best chance for showers will
begin to shift south of our region. Patchy fog will be possible
once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough axis slides south across the area Tuesday helping to
push a stationary boundary south of New England. High pressure
builds in from the north Tuesday afternoon for a drying trend.
Building heights aloft and high pressure at the surface bring fair
weather and a slight warming trend Wednesday into Thursday. A cold
front sinks south across Canada late Thursday, but does not make it
across the International Border with continued dry weather and
warming temperatures into the weekend. A cold front may approach
late in weekend, although distant tropical activity in the western
Atlantic may act to continue ridging aloft over the area through the
end of the forecast period.
Showers linger across southern New Hampshire and far SW Maine
Tuesday morning while the northern two thirds of the area will be
mostly dry. Shower activity diminishes across the far south through
the morning with skies turning partly to mostly sunny from north to
south during the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the
north. East to northeast flow will keep temperatures mainly in the
60s with some spots approaching the low 70s. Residual low level
moisture will bring patchy fog Tuesday night, mainly in
sheltered interior locations.
Short wave ridging slides across the area Wednesday for a sunny day
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s. A cold front sinks
south across SE Canada Thursday, but looks to remain north of the
area with only slight chances for a showers and more clouds in the
mountains. Otherwise, another fine day looks to be in store with
temperatures climbing a few degrees high than Wednesday. Heights
then build over the Northeast Friday into the weekend bringing high
temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s with slightly cooler
conditions near the coast. Precipitation chances look dismal through
the weekend into early next week as potential tropical activity in
the western Atlantic acts to hold the ridge overhead with little
eastward progression of the next upstream trough. The only impacts
that look possible at this time from the tropical activity will be
building long period swell next weekend, although guidance
suggest wave heights will be rather unimpressive.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Patchy fog expected tonight. Low clouds may also
allow for IFR conditions in a few locations. The latest HREF
solution has the most low cloud cover confined mainly to New
Hampshire as moisture pools in that region through Monday and
into Monday night.
Long Term...Lingering showers and low cigs may extend flight
restrictions across southern terminals Tuesday morning with
improvement expected through the day. VFR is likely through the end
of the week except for overnight patchy valley fog at KLEB/KHIE. The
best chances of more widespread fog occur Tuesday night with
residual low level moisture from the rain that occurs Monday into
Tuesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and begin
to increase as the gradient increases in a cold air advection
pattern. Winds may gust up to 20 kt later tonight and Monday
over the coastal waters.
Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through the end
of the week. Steady NE flow persists over the waters Tuesday with
gusts up to 20 kts and potential for lingering showers and fog. High
pressure generally remains in control from the middle to end of the
week. Long period swell from distant tropical activity may enter the
Gulf of Maine over the weekend with wave heights approaching 5 ft by
the end of the period.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
850 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a
trough axis that extends from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
southwestward into the southern Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft
to the east of this trough continues to stream moisture into the
area. PW values are currently near 2 inches across the forecast
area. Radar imagery indicates numerous to widespread showers
across the area but activity is currently light. There has been a
nocturnal decrease in the intensity of precipitation across the
area over the last couple of hours. Precipitation intensity is
higher further south across central Alabama and Georgia and this
area of showers/storms is moving to the northeast.
Models indicate a upper jet will strengthen across Middle
Tennessee later tonight around 06-09z. The jet will intensify to
around 60 kts. This will lead to a slight uptick in the low-level
jet and will put the forecast area in the favored right entrance
region of the jet, especially across northeast Alabama.
Additionally, CAMs indicate a clear upward trend in convection
late tonight into early Monday morning across northeast Alabama.
With PW values remaining near to above 2 inches, expect another
round of heavy rainfall will be possible later tonight and into
Monday morning. Due to this, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for
the entire forecast area. Expect areas with the highest chance to
experience flooding will be across northeast Alabama tonight.
However, went ahead and issued for the entire area with a few
locations across the area already experiencing 3 to 7 inches of
rainfall over the last 24 hours. Lows tonight will continue to be
on the mild side in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
The upper trough/low will begin digging into the ArkLaTex region
on Monday, and drier air may temporarily result in a decrease in
activity over northwest AL. The remainder of the area will stay in
a moist airmass, with PWAT values near 2". Will keep scattered to
numerous showers and storms in the forecast for Labor Day, with
the highest chances (70-80%) over northeast AL. Afternoon highs
will be in the low to mid 80s with mostly cloudy skies. Those with
outdoor plans will once again need to monitor the weather and
quickly move indoors if thunder occurs. The upper low will begin
to weaken, and our eyes will turn to another low pressure system
that will dig across MO on Tuesday. As this system tracks south,
will see an increase in showers and storms north of the area. With
the Tennessee Valley still in a moisture rich airmass, scattered
diurnal thunderstorms will remain in the forecast especially
during the afternoon on Tuesday. Highs will be a little warmer
Tuesday, rising to the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows near
70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
An unsettled pattern will continue for extended period. Mean
troughing will persist over the SE CONUS, which will help to draw
deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The models have maintained a
diurnal trend, with best rain chances in the afternoon due to daytime
heating and a more unstable environment. Forecasted area dewpoints
will remain unseasonably high, ranging from the upper 60s night to
lower 70s in the day hours. The models were in generally good
agreement, with forecaster confidence up enough to keep blend
recommended likely rain chances on Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Because of persistent moisture, clouds, and rain chances, the latter
half of the week will remain below normal temperature wise, with
highs only in the lower 80s, but lows in the mid 60s to around 70.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
VFR conditions currently at both terminals. Lightning activity has
trended downward over the last couple of hours but there is a
storm nearing MSL. Due to this, continued with VCTS at MSL through
03z. Did not include TS or VCTS through the remainder of the TAF
period. May need to make amendments if any thunderstorms near the
terminals. Otherwise, rainy conditions are forecast to continue
with VCSH or SHRA in the terminals through the end of the TAF
period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will also move into the terminals around
09z and persist throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ALZ001>010-016.
TN...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TNZ076-096-097.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...MA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the
area through Tuesday, with a very slow moving storm system across
the region. By mid week, rain chances will end from north to
south, as high pressure becomes dominant over the Great Lakes.
Expect humid conditions to continue, though temperatures will not
be excessively warm.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
An upper level trough remains nearly stationary over the Midwest,
with a positively tilted axis from the upper Great Lakes through
Arkansas. One shortwave feature that brought fairly widespread
shower and thunder activity this afternoon and early evening has
been diminishing in activity after sunset, possibly in response to
another strengthening disturbance producing showers south of I-70.
CAMs are generally reducing shower activity overnight with both
features, however the latter/southern feature looks to be the one
more likely to dominate if any overnight. Have trimmed back PoPs
for most areas late this evening with most areas trending toward
slight chance PoPs if any by Midnight. Chances look too low for
mention north of I-72 by around Midnight. Lows ranging from 62 in
Galesburg to 68 in Lawrenceville look on track for tonight and
have made only minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Through Monday night)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Upper level low pressure continues to spin across the St. Louis
area this afternoon, with showers and isolated storms rotating
around it. Recently, a more pronounced but narrow band of heavier
showers formed roughly along I-72 from Springfield to Champaign.
SPC mesoscale analysis shows this region favored for a few weak
funnel clouds, with RAP guidance suggesting this potential
lingering through sunset. By mid evening, much of the shower
activity should be more focused just north of I-70.
The upper low will meander across the region through Monday,
with more of the surface reflection closer to the Ohio River.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered across the
forecast area, though coverage toward Peoria and Galesburg will be
more isolated, and the greatest coverage on Monday will be near
and south of I-70.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
A fairly interesting upper level pattern will emerge this week. Not
a lot of movement expected through Wednesday, as the heat dome
remains in place over the western U.S., and the synoptic models
show a piece of the upper trough closing off over the lower
Mississippi Valley. With time, the western high will get squished
between the lower Mississippi Valley low, a tropical system moving
up Baja California, and a deepening trough moving out of Canada.
The European model consequently closes off an upper low over the
Dakotas this weekend, while the GFS holds off until Sunday and
develops it over northwest Missouri. This introduces quite a bit
of uncertainty with the rain chances for the upcoming weekend.
Blended guidance appears to lean more toward the European
solution, but with the significant variations in models, see no
reason to deviate from it at this time.
Temperatures will edge up slowly and peak in the 80-85 degree
range mid to late week, cooling during the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in the vicinity
of the central IL terminals this evening. The best chances for a
thunderstorms remain at KPIA and KBMI where TEMPO for TSRA is
included through the first hour of the 00Z TAFs, but otherwise
only -SHRA/VCSH mentioned this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
should gradually decrease overnight, however additional isolated
SHRA/TSRA could pop up Monday late morning through afternoon. Only
VCSH/VCTS mentioned at this point with relatively low probability
and coverage expected. Cigs/vsbys this evening are primarily VFR,
but will steadily worsen overnight as MVFR cigs develop by
03Z-06Z, and IFR likely at most terminals by 07Z-09Z. Gradual
improvement in cigs expected late Monday morning into afternoon.
Winds NE 5-10 kts through the period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...37
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1101 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022
The forecast remains largely on track late this evening with the
heavier showers dying off and lighter areas of rain developing.
An area of moderate rain is still making its way northward over
Martin and Pike counties but should move on in the next hour or
so. Have refined the hourly PoPs to reflect the current radar
trends. CAMs do hint at a resurgence in shower development closer
to dawn. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022
Precipitation has started to increase in coverage across eastern
Kentucky with a few instances of training showers and areas
receiving repeated heavy rainfall. Most potential issues have
been covered with flood advisories with a few locations warranting
flash flood warnings. A broader area of showers is located over
the far southern counties and continues to stream northward.
Showers are becoming less efficient rain makers as daytime heating
ends and some instability is lost, though showers and storms will
continue into the overnight. The main change in this update was
freshening up the hourly temperature grids as temperatures have
fallen off where precipitation has occurred and clouds continue
to stream in.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 529 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022
Little has changed since yesterday. Late this afternoon a large,
weak, slow moving upper level trough extends from eastern TX to
the Great Lakes, where it meets up with a more progressive trough
in the prevailing westerlies aloft. Upper level ridging is off
the southeast coast. In between, our flow is from the southwest
over a very long fetch, bringing deep tropical moisture over the
region. At the surface, a high pressure ridge remains near the
East Coast. Flow around the west side of the surface ridge is
bringing warm and humid air northward across the region. The flow
continues to have a downslope component in the JKL forecast area,
especially the eastern counties. However, the flow is very weak,
and the drying influence is minimal. The setup is producing
showers and thunderstorms, especially since diurnal
destabilization occurred. Models show precipitable water generally
from 1.75-2 inches.
This scenario will change very little through Monday evening.
Features focusing convection are very weak and difficult to pin
down. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will likely persist into
this evening, but eventually show diminishing coverage as heating
is lost. The GFS and the HRRR indicate another uptick in activity
toward dawn, with the NAM following suit during Monday morning.
Have followed this general trend in the forecast. If this is the
case, it could keep activity later in the day Monday somewhat
more limited by inhibiting heating. However, confidence is not
very high in the evolution. With weak flow, high atmospheric
moisture content, and forecast soundings showing thin CAPE in the
column, conditions favor heavy rainfall. However, very weak
features, weak inflow, and lack of organization would probably
keep any hydro problems fairly localized. A Flood Watch into
Monday evening was inherited and let it ride to cover this threat.
The upper level trough will continue to slowly advance, especially
on the northern end as it gets dragged along by the more
progressive trough in the prevailing westerlies. By the end of
Monday night, this will make our flow aloft a bit more zonal, and
the highest precipitable water is expected to shift eastward. Weak
surface low pressure is expected to develop east of the
Appalachians Monday night, and this will result in very little low
level flow in our area. The combination of factors should reduce
our heavy rain threat.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022
A very active weather pattern is anticipated in the extended, as
a series of upper level troughs, sluggish surface fronts, and
perhaps a closed low all make their way through the region. The
most active periods will be during the afternoon and early evening
hours from Tuesday on into the upcoming weekend. Persistent and
at times widespread cloud cover, along with repeated rounds of
rainfall, will keep temperatures below normal each day. Daytime
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are on tap because of this.
Nightly should bottom out in the mid 60s on average. Winds will be
either out of the light and out of south or light and variable
during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022
Scattered showers and storms will continue to move across the
area, from north to south and will bring potential impacts to the
TAF sites during the period. This pattern is expected to continue
through the period which has created a messy TAF situation. Have
kept VCSH for the overnight period but as precipitation chances
increase tomorrow morning SHRA has been added to the prevailing.
Later in the day, thunderstorms chances will increase as
instability increases. Ceilings will also lower later in the day
tomorrow. Direct impacts to TAF sites will lower visibilities
below VFR and will also bring increased winds and wind gusts. Sub-
VFR conditions will stick around tomorrow morning and through the
afternoon as ceilings lower, mixing is kept to a minimum and
precipitation increases in areal coverage.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BATZ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BATZ
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
After the coolest temps in months early this morning, widespread
70s have developed across the area this afternoon. And with
easterly winds almost exclusively below 10 knots, I can only
assume it`s very comfortable outdoors.
Little has changed over the past 24 hours, weather-wise, and the
upper pattern will hold through most of the upcoming shortened
work week. At the surface, a weak low pressure system spins near
St. Louis, MO and is producing some fair weather cu at 2,500 feet
across the southeastern CWA. This area is among the most likely to
see patchy fog development overnight as temps will be a bit cooler
there and dewpoint depressions a degree or two smaller. Winds may
be just a bit too quick for widespread fog development, but
valleys seem like a safe bet for reduced visibility overnight.
The blocking ridge over the western CONUS will grow in strength,
size, and influence through mid-week, providing increasing heights
along the northern Missouri River basin. By Thursday, some heights
and temps may reach the 99.5th climatological percentile. In
other words, forecast conditions only have about a one in thirty
chance of developing in any given September. Granted, the GFS and
GEFS have been running much too hot and mixing much too deep as
of late and I believe it`s skewing these numbers.
Regardless, each of the next four days should generally be a
couple of degrees warmer than the day prior. Isolated triple
digits are possible along the SD state line by Thursday. NBM
probabilities put Yankton, SD`s probability of hitting 100F near
10%. That also happens to be about the chance that Omaha hits 95
that same afternoon. It`s not quite record heat territory, but
it`s pretty toasty for September`s first half.
Global models diverge in the timing of the eventual pattern
change, but all break down the ridge to some degree around Friday
or so. This may bring a chance of some showers or storms, but
timing and location preclude a reasonable inclusion in the
extended forecast. Early indications suggest a cool down for the
weekend... though it`s residence time varies from solution to
solution.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Somewhat tricky forecast. Expect some fog development late tonight
and possibly some MVFR to IFR ceilings as well. Fairly moist low
level airmass which has been in place across IA, MO parts of
eastern KS and southeast NE will remain present. There is a fairly
wide spread of model guidance in regards to how low ceilings and
visibilities will go. Generally used a blend of model guidance,
but with lowest weights given to HRRR, RAP and NAM. That is
somewhat unusual, but will go with that for now idea and adjust
later if needed. Any fog that develops should lift by 14 or 15Z
Monday.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
829 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Of all CAMs looked at during these early evening hours, latest
HRRR initialized best with a realistic weather pattern evolution
through remainder of tonight. Leaned accordingly toward this
solution which means overall rain chances will be lower than
previously expected for at least remainder of evening hours
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible with some of the stronger storms producing heavy
rainfall. 05/00Z OHX Sounding profile illustrating PW values
around 1.75 inch, with SFC/MUCAPE values around 1,500 J/KG, but
little if any vertical wind shear. Tweaked current hourly
temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending
them with associated previously forecasted hourly mid to late
evening gridded values. Current temperature trends continue to
generally be in line with forecasted lows. Despite not as much
rainfall expected this evening, but with a continuance of
saturated ground conditions across our area, will continue with
Flood Watch tonight through 06/00Z (7 PM CDT Monday) for entire
mid state region. Sent out earlier refreshed suite of forecast
products. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
A Flash Flood Watch remains in place for most of Middle Tennessee.
We continue to expect periods of showers and thunderstorms this
evening and again tomorrow with heavy rainfall in some spots.
This rainfall could cause local flash flooding, especially for
areas that have received significant rainfall over the past
couple of days. Hardest hit locations over the past couple of
days include Maury County, De Kalb County and surrounding areas,
and southeast Robertson County, all having more than 5 inches in
some spots. Other locations could be impacted as well with
expected rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour from the stronger
storms.
The stormy action is occurring on the favorable east side of a low
pressure system that has been stalled over the Mid Ms Valley for
days. The low is sandwiched between strong high pressure systems
over the Atlantic and back over the western states. This setup
has also been favorable for channeling tropical moisture into the
region from the Gulf and from the Pacific.
On Monday, the low will shift and pivot slightly, cutting down the
tropical connection and moving the main focus for heavy rainfall
east of our area. It is not a huge change, but we may end up with
less coverage and intensity of rain by Monday afternoon, possibly
allowing us to remove the watch early. Part of that decision will
depend on how much rain we receive late today through tonight.
Average rainfall expected through Monday will be 1 to 2 inches,
but the heavier storms could produce that much each hour in some
spots. So again, the threat is not widespread, but locations that
get the heaviest downpours could have flash flooding developing
in a short time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
The unsettled pattern of daily shower and thunderstorm chances
will linger through the week and likely into next weekend. The
activity will peak in the afternoon and early evening hours each
day. The low pressure will not really go away, but it will shift,
pivot, and interact with a couple of incoming systems. This will
cause variability in the coverage and intensity of the rainfall
from day to day. Generally, we expect intensity and coverage to
decrease through midweek with the lowest coverage on Thursday.
After that, tropical moisture will start to be tapped again, and
we will see increasing trends for coverage and intensity Friday
and Saturday.
This pattern does not look favorable for severe wx, but a few
storms here and there may produce strong winds over 40mph. Also,
any strong or slow moving storms could bring a localized, brief
threat for flooding throughout this week. Overnight lows will be
on the muggy side while daytime highs will be a little below
normal with more than usual clouds and showers.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Showers and storms are much more isolated this evening than they
were yesterday. The best chance for any reduced visibility due to
rain will be before midnight. After midnight cigs may remain
around MVFR heights with some fog development possible. Precip
coverage looks to stay low on Monday, so kept impacts out of TAFs
for tomorrow. Winds will be light and generally out of the south.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 71 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50
Clarksville 70 83 69 86 / 50 50 20 50
Crossville 65 76 65 80 / 80 80 40 60
Columbia 70 84 68 87 / 40 60 30 50
Cookeville 68 80 67 83 / 60 80 40 50
Jamestown 65 76 65 80 / 70 90 40 60
Lawrenceburg 69 83 68 84 / 60 60 30 50
Murfreesboro 69 84 68 87 / 60 70 30 50
Waverly 68 83 67 85 / 50 50 20 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Whitehead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
854 PM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.UPDATE...Some showers were developing along our east slopes of
the WA cascades in response to a weakening weather system tracking
across the pacnw. The hrrr model was confining the showers
along the cascades overnight while the remainder of the area
remains dry although some smoke from surrounding fires may
impact locations across the area.
The surface winds may increase some overnight mainly in the gorge
and along and north of the OR/WA state line. Minor changes were
done to pops and sky and temps tonight that are forecast to fall
into the 50s and low 60s with 40s in the area mountains.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 PM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Current radar and
visible satellite imagery showing dry conditions under mostly
clear skies. However, there has been smoke/haze extending from
Central Oregon through the John Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the
Wallowas today due to local wildfires and dry southwesterly flow
aloft. Smoke/haze should improve slightly tonight into Monday as a
weak, embedded cold front moves through the area. This will
provide a chance for showers over the Washington Cascades tonight
into Monday morning, mainly focused along the crest. Ahead of the
front, winds will be increasing through the Eastern Gorge, Cascade
gaps, and the Kittitas Valley with gusts of 20 to 30 mph out of
the west expected through the remainder of the day. Winds will
slowly subside tonight into Monday across the area, with the
exception of the Kittitas Valley still incurring gusts of 15 to 20
mph from the northwest that will extend through much of the day on
Monday. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind the weak
front and more zonal, westerly flow aloft. Highs are expected to
peak in the mid to upper 80s through the Basin and in the mid to
upper 70s for the mountains. Overnight lows will drop into the
upper 40s to low 50s into Tuesday morning. The upper level ridge
to our southeast then rebuilds into Tuesday as highs return to the
low to mid 90s. Moisture from a disturbance off the Baja
Peninsula looks to ride up the backside of the ridge and move
into our area as it spins around the high on Tuesday. This could
be enough moisture to trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two
over the Cascades on Tuesday, but confidence is still rather low.
Guidance is in good agreement with the overall pattern, but
differences regarding ridge strength arise Monday and Tuesday. The
ECMWF incurs a stronger ridge than the GFS, which merely relates
to slightly warmer temperatures and a lower chance of showers over
the Cascades Tuesday due to a slightly drier airmass present. The
current forecast keeps conditions dry over the Cascades on
Tuesday, but showers may need to be included if this morning`s
model trends continue. 75
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...The ensembles and models are
still showing some uncertainty in the incoming system. However, each
model is at least in some agreement that a trough will move towards
the region causing the current ridge to break down. Primary
concerns will be the potential for some instability over the
already active fires in the region on Wednesday afternoon. Hot
temperatures and low RH values coupled with an increase in winds
as the ridge breaks down, could lead to continued active growth
on the fires and elevated fire weather concerns on Wednesday.
Wednesday is the primary day of concern with the potential ridge
breakdown. ECMWF/Canadian/NAM/GFS models are all showing an upper
level trough moving towards the region. The GFS has it moving
northward along with a closed low forming off the Or coast, the
ECMWF has it traversing north of the CWA while the Canadian has it a
bit north and still offshore. The WPC cluster ensemble is showing
some variance with the timing and location of the trough and the
multi-model is showing a weak trough just north of the CWA.
Regardless of these differences, one thing is clear, there will be a
trough later this week which will assist in breaking down the ridge
by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. With the trough moving
towards the region by Wednesday night the models are showing that
some mid level moisture will move into the region and theta e
lapse rates are in the negatives, signaling the potential for
some lift. Models are also showing that there is some higher
levels of CAPE possible, up to 600 J/Kg, especially over the
Wallowa Mts where we have current active fires. With this, there
is a slight chance of thunderstorms possible over Wallow County
Wednesday afternoon. With that said, the ECMWF EFI is still
picking up a strong signal of well above seasonal temperatures for
Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for the Basin,
Gorge and Central Or, 100+ in the lower valleys and 70s in the
higher terrain.
Thursday and Friday, the trough will move into the PacNW and
break the ridge down a bit farther. Due to this breakdown,
temperatures will trend closer to seasonal norms for Thursday and
Friday and the ECMWF EFI of 0.5-0.6 corroborates the trend down.
Highs will be in the mid 80s for the Basin adjacent Valleys and
Central Or, and in the high 70s low 80s for the higher terrains
both days. As we move into the weekend, the models and ensembles
are bringing in another ridge from the Four corners area.
AVIATION...vfr conditions are expected to persist for the next
24 hours. Gusty winds between 20 to 25 mph are possible at taf
site kdls until around 06z and again after 20z Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 54 83 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 58 85 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 62 86 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 54 83 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 59 86 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 54 80 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 47 83 47 94 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 52 84 51 96 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 51 90 54 104 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 61 87 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...97
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1040 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend along the coast of the Carolinas and
Southeast states through Monday, as an upper level trough and
surface cold front approach our area from the northwest. This front
will slowly drift southeast into North Carolina Tuesday through
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM Sunday...
Surface high pressure continues to extend into area this evening
from off the New England coast, while a mid level ridge remains
parked off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast (centered a bit further
east tonight though). Meanwhile, and inverted trough extends from
the upstate of SC into the western Piedmont of central NC. The more
eastward center of the mid level ridge and the surface high shifting
a bit more to the north and east has allowed the good moisture plume
to shift eastward and northward into our area, allowing PW`s of
around 1.75 to 2 inches to filter into the area. This coupled with
good southeast to southerly low level flow interacting with the
inverted surface trough/remnant outflow lingering across the
northwest Piedmont has allowed for the near constant redevelop of
showers and storms for Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford this evening.
The latest HRRR shows the potential for this to continue for the
next hour or two, then shift to the north and west of our area.
Upward of 3 inches of rain has fallen across portions of this area,
likely pushing area creeks and streams upward. However, given the
rather dry conditions over the last several weeks and resultant
higher flash flood guidance we haven`t had any reports of flooding.
Thus, have opted to issue a Flood Advisory to account for any minor
flooding, especially in urban poor drainage areas.
After any lingering convection dies off in the northwest, expect dry
conditions areawide overnight, with a chance of some fog and stratus
in areas that saw rain today. Overnight lows will remain mild, with
low temps expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...
The pattern aloft will change little across the ern US this period
and remain characterized by a positive tilt trough from the lwr
Great Lakes swwd across the mid MS valley and srn Plains and a pair
of mid-level ridges over FL and about midway between Bermuda and
Cape Hatteras. Intervening swly flow aloft will remain maximized
from the lwr MS Valley to the srn Appalachians and Mid Atlantic and
consequently to the northwest of cntl NC, where mainly weakly
perturbed, but increasingly-moist (PWs up to 1.75-2.0") swly flow
will result. The strongest forcing for ascent over w-cntl NC will
likely not arrive until overnight Mon, when the models indicate a
stronger mid-level disturbance will lift through ern TN and wrn NC.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to extend from offshore
the Mid Atlantic coast swwd across the ern Carolinas, while a
trough/low redevelop in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians.
Multi-layer cloudiness from MVFR range stratus/stratocumulus and
mid/high-level moisture will again focus over the wrn NC Piedmont on
Mon, as will the chance of showers and isolated storms. Temperatures
should again reach the upr 80s to lwr 90s except where those clouds
and chance of convection are maximized over the wrn Piedmont, where
mid 80s are expected. While the evening and early nighttime hours
should be mainly dry, 12Z HREF members except the FV3 depict a band
or to of showers and isolated storms moving across the Piedmont
after midnight, seemingly coincident with the glancing of the
aforementioned mid-level disturbance tracking across ern TN/wrn NC.
Increasing low-level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints
around 70 F or so will favor similar low temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...
Despite decent model agreement in the extended, confidence is below
average given the relative proximity of weather systems and
potential for a small shift in the pattern to significantly increase
rain chances. In general, over the next several days the base of
the positively tiled upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to
the Lower MS Valley is expected to separate from the westerlies and
meander over south-central US. TS Earl is forecast to track north
well off the East Coast, likely helping to slowly amplify the ridge
axis along the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracking
across the Northeast will send a cold front south into the Carolinas
midweek, followed by northeasterly low-level flow beneath the upper
ridge for the end of the week.
The best moisture flux through the week will be across the Gulf
Coast States with veering southeasterly flow into the southern
Appalachians, putting central NC mostly just east of daily showers
and storms (and likely an extended flooding threat). The cold front
late Tuesday into Wednesday may be the best opportunity for most
areas to see some rain, afterwhich the pattern....as it is
forecast...shifts back to the western Piedmont being diurnally
favored for showers and storms given deeper moisture, with lesser
chances to the east under the ridge axis. Temps will likely be at
for below normal, especially toward the end of the week with
increased cloud cover and an easterly low-level fetch.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...
24-hour TAF period: Multiple areas of showers and storms have
redeveloped over the NW Piedmont, which may continue to result in
brief periods of sub-VFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings this evening
around INT and GSO. One area of showers and storms is currently
moving across far western Davidson and Forsyth counties, but the
heaviest rain should stay just west of INT. Any lingering convection
should weaken and push farther west over the next few hours.
However, some IFR to MVFR ceilings will again be possible late
tonight into early tomorrow morning at GSO and especially INT.
Patchy fog also can`t be ruled out in the NW Piedmont especially
around INT with all the rain that has fallen in Forsyth County this
evening. Farther east at FAY and RWI, patchy fog will be possible
between about 08z to 12z as well. Even though model guidance is
having a hard time picking up on it, included potential for MVFR
stratus to linger into the late morning at all TAF sites except RWI,
similar to what happened this past morning. More isolated to widely
scattered showers and maybe an isolated storm could develop over the
western Piedmont (including INT and GSO) tomorrow afternoon.
Looking beyond 00Z Tuesday: Patchy fog at FAY and RWI, and sub-VFR
stratus at Piedmont sites, will be possible again Tue morning,
followed by the passage of a cold front and chance of post-frontal
MVFR ceilings in nely flow Thu and Fri morning. Otherwise, there
will be a better chance of showers/storms area-wide Tue afternoon-
evening.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Danco/MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
We will continue to sit between the high pressure across the
western U.S. and the low pressure across eastern Texas. There may
be a couple minor disturbances embedded within the flow of these
two systems. Enough support may exist to develop a few isolated
thunderstorms across our area this afternoon and evening. In fact,
the HRRR indeed develops this activity briefly before it tappers
off for this evening. Otherwise, the messaging largely remains the
same as the previous forecast issuance as confidence remains high
in this being the correct solution. It is worthwhile to note the
Storm Prediction Center does include the Big Country withing their
marginal risk for severe weather. The main hazard does seem to be
damaging winds. Again, this activity will be rather isolated in
nature this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
The upper level pattern through the extended period will feature
a large upper high centered over Utah to our west and a persistent
upper trough that will extend from the Tennessee Valley into the
Arklatex region through at least the end of the week. This pattern
will result in mid/upper level northerly flow over the area
through the upcoming weekend, with little chance for
precipitation. We still need to keep an eye on a tropical
depression that is currently situated about 200 miles off the
southwest coast of Mexico, however, possible influence from this
system is waning. Earlier model data a few days ago had this
system tracking north across the Baja Peninsula, with tropical
moisture be shunted northeast and eastward across Texas by late in
the week. However, latest model guidance continues to track this
tropical system farther west offshore of the Baja Peninsula and
eventually northwest due to the strong high north of the system.
Given the latest model trends, the forecast will remain dry
through next weekend, with temperatures generally near normal for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022
Isolated to scattered TSRA may affect KABI through the next few
hours, but most other sites should avoid any thunderstorm
activity. The only other site that could see some activity would
be KBBD, and will amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect light east
to southeasterly winds through Monday evening, with VFR conditions
prevailing through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
San Angelo 68 93 68 94 / 0 10 10 10
Junction 67 92 68 91 / 0 20 10 10
Brownwood 69 93 68 93 / 20 20 10 10
Sweetwater 70 94 69 94 / 10 10 0 10
Ozona 66 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 10
Brady 68 91 68 91 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20