Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/05/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
943 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather returns for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 9:30pm...our cold front has stalled just south of I-90 as can be seen in the latest radar mosaic where a conveyor belt of showers has lined up along with a wind shift to the north noted just of these showers while winds are still out of the south or southwest. Despite the wind shift to the north, the stratus and cooler temperatures are still well to the north in the North Country since the frontal zone is very gradually sloped. The boundary should sink a bit further south over night but should remain somewhere between Albany and Poughkeepsie. Thanks to the northerly winds, temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s north of the front by sunrise with mid 60s south of the boundary. A few shortwaves will likely ride along the stalled boundary overnight resulting in periodic showers. Better chance for more organized showers should hold off until closer to 09 - 12 UTC per the latest HRRR and RAP guidance. High res NAM is actually even drier and holds off the organized shower activity until tomorrow midday/P.M. Adjusted POPs downwards a bit tonight from likely to chance based on these trends but with showers already in west/central NY tracking westward, maintained chance POPs before trending to likely by 09 - 12 UTC. Previous discussion...After a lull in activity during the late evening hours, a more widespread area of showers will move into the region from west to east overnight as forcing increases with the approach of the upper-level trough. Confidence was high enough to expand likely pops across most areas toward daybreak Monday. Otherwise, it will be a cloudy night with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will continue to drift southward and slow or stall on Monday as the continuation of the upper-level trough and upper-level energy will result in continuous rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. Instability will be very limited with precipitable water values remaining high and between 1.25 and 1.75 inches. This should lead to a lack of severe weather potential and more of a heavy rain threat. A slight risk for excessive rainfall continues for areas mainly along and south of I-90 where the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur. Monday should be a rather cloudy and cool day with the rain around for much of the day with high temperatures only in the 60s for most areas. If there are enough breaks in the rain across far southern areas, some lower to mid-70s are possible. Showers or even periods of rain will continue through Monday night with the steadiest and heaviest rain expected to be across the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County. Northern areas are expected to begin to dry out. Lows will reach the mid-50s to lower 60s. Low pressure tracking along the front near the Mason Dixon line will continue to bring some rain showers to southern areas on Tuesday with little or no rain across the north. Precipitation intensity should begin to wane over time with precipitation generally coming to an end by Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall continues to be focused for the southern half of the area with storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches common with some locally higher amounts where the most persistent bands of heavy rain exist. Areas farther to the north will be more displaced from the higher moisture and forcing, so 1 inch or less is expected in these areas. The clouds and showers will lead to another cool day Tuesday with highs once again in the 60s for most, though a few lower 70s cannot be ruled out. Partial clearing Tuesday night can result in some patchy fog and should lead to a slightly cooler night with upper 40s to upper 50s favored for low temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period features fair weather and a gradual increase in daily high temperatures as surface high pressure encircles the region. While the majority of the forecast period will be dominated by upper/mid level ridging and surface high pressure, the beginning of the term sees a more complicated pattern aloft. In the mid and upper levels, the pattern consists of weak ridging over the Northeast initially and a weak closed low developing across the Deep South and Tennessee River Valley while shortwave energy that enters western Canada results in deepening trough developing across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. As the trough approaches, the ridging across the Northeast is expected to strengthen. Seasonable temperatures can be expected Wednesday before gradual rising heights and dominant high pressure give way to increasing temperatures throughout the remainder of the forecast period. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s below 1500 feet and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain. Temperatures should rise by just a few degrees Thursday, and by Friday, a return to high temperatures in the 80s below 1000ft is expected. High temperatures are expected to remain in the range of low to mid 80s through the weekend. Low temperatures look to be seasonable, ranging in the 50s throughout the period. Dew points should be relatively comfortable in the 50s before increasing slightly to the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday ahead of a possible late weekend cold front. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Currently, all TAF sites are VFR with overcast cloud layers at varying heights. Winds are not greater than 10 knots with northerly flow at ALB/KPSF, VRB at POU, and northeasterly at GFL. Decreasing visibilities and increased cloud cover can be expected at all sites throughout the TAF period as the impending cold front approaches the region and causes widespread showers. As the aforementioned cold front stalls to the south of our region, clouds will thicken, leading to MVFR ceilings. Moisture injected into the region from the west will give way to widespread chances for scattered to isolated showers. For Monday, confidence in precipitation over the area increases especially during the afternoon hours. As far as the TAF sites, forecast models continue to favor areas along and south of I-90 in receiving most of the precipitation. From tonight and especially during the day on Monday, expect for mainly MVFR ceilings over the TAF sites. Any showers or storms that move over the terminals will have the capabilities of briefly reducing flight categories to IFR/LIFR levels. As far as winds, expect for light and variable winds to continue until the cold front passes which will them shift things out of the north at 5-10 kts. Outlook... Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather returns for mid to late week. && .HYDROLOGY... A cold front will continue to drift southward across the region into early this week and bring a much cooler air mass in its wake. Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will transition to a widespread rainfall tonight into Tuesday, with the heaviest rain mainly south of Interstate 90. Drier weather returns for mid to late week. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for areas south of I-90 through Tuesday morning with some locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates of 0.50-0.75"/hour could occur during this time and could persist in some of these locations for a few hours if bands of heavy rain develop and track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center maintains the southern half of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 2 outlook (Monday/Monday night). The rain and embedded thunderstorms that occur could produce locally heavy rainfall and, due to the mean flow nearly paralleling the front, training of storms can occur. Therefore, minor flooding in urban as well as in low-lying and poor drainage areas and isolated flash flooding are possible. No river flooding is forecast at this time. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...IAA/Gant AVIATION...MSE/Gant FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1056 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Quick update just to freshen pops a bit. Convection looks to be holding farther north as thought, at least for the time being. UPDATE Issued at 928 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Not real excited about convection over the north central late this evening into the overnight hours given the dry atmosphere and warm temperatures aloft. However we have seen a few lightning strikes in the past 30 minutes or so over Renville county. This area of high based activity will continue to scoot east overnight. Models also continue to develop convection south as forcing from the upper low currently north of Minot, meets up with warm advection from an increasing low level jet. Currently 40 knot winds are indicated on the KBIS and KMBX radars. Current satellite imagery shows the upper low near Kenmare. Latest RAP and and new NAM look to have this upper circulation too far west compared to it`s current location. Thus am wondering if this is the reason for convection developing farther south later tonight. Given the current location and eastward track, would think that the best forcing from the upper low may not meet up with the increasing low level jet. Latest RAP are not as far south with convection as their 00Z iterations and other 00Z CAMS like the NAM Nest and ARW. We made some minor updates to pops blending the latest RAP/HRRR guidance with the NBM, basically keeping shower/thunderstorm activity from dropping quite so far south. Will update the HWO to reflect the chances for thunderstorms. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A warm front is situated over far western ND. Winds have shifted westerly over far western ND and eastern MT with lighter winds speeds. Strong southeast winds continue across the remainder of western and central ND. Mid level clouds generally 14-18KFT associated with a compact upper level circulation continue to move from northwest into north central ND. CAMS continue to indicate possible shower/thunderstorm activity later this evening as this feature moves into central ND. Currently we have some slight chance pops in the forecast. Will tweak these with latest guidance but generally no significant changes here. Elsewhere skies remain mostly clear, but smoke looks to be on the increase from the west tonight into Labor Day. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Warm conditions continue through the short term, with a few thunderstorms possible tonight. Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to be found across the area through the evening. Low RH values combined with a breezy south southeast wind will bring some near critical fire weather conditions through the evening. A few sites may even see some critical fire danger at times, although this should be isolated and may not meet the time requirement of a Red Flag Warning. Thus will hold off on any highlights for now. Natural Color RGB satellite showing nicely wildfire smoke being pulled into the upper low across Montana. Look for this to enter into western North Dakota by this evening. Tonight, this mentioned low moves across the state. This could continue smoke across the west, while bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the north and central. There is still some MUCAPE, modest mid level lapse rates, and decent shear. However, dewpoints are fairly low. Thus severe weather is not expected tonight, although cannot rule out a strong wind gusts through the night, and perhaps some small hail during initial thunderstorm development. Lows generally look to be in the 50s tonight. Dry conditions will bring only fair RH recoveries, especially to western portions. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should diminish by Labor Day morning. The rest of Labor Day then looks to be warm and dry. Near critical fire weather conditions could once again return, mainly in the west where breezy west winds meet low RH. Breezy southerly winds may linger in the east, although RH values should remain fair. Central areas will see low RH, yet lighter winds. Highs for Labor Day will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Of concern will also be the potential for wildfire smoke. Many areas could at least see some form of hazy conditions from smoke, while areas across the west that get a westerly wind could see smoke lower to the surface. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Warm and dry conditions continue until a potential break down of the ridge later this week. Amplified ridge across the inner mountain west will continue to maintain warm and dry conditions across the state Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak dry front may come through sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday, perhaps lowering temperatures a touch yet still maintaining above normal conditions. RH values look to be low each day, possibly bringing some near critical fire weather conditions, although winds at this time look to remain on the lighter side. Day 4 and 5 cluster analysis starting to come in line of a (perhaps temporary) break down in the ridge as a large trough and cold front comes through sometime Thursday into Friday. A head of this front on likely Thursday will be warm and breezy conditions. This could perhaps bring more near critical fire weather conditions. Once the front moves through sometime Thursday night into Friday, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible. The quick nature of this front will not allow for high amounts of qpf. And a check at the CSU-MLP, the chances for severe weather look low at this time. Day 6 and 7 cluster analysis then start to differ. Many support the trough sticking around bringing cooler yet mainly dry conditions. There are still some hints the ridge returns quicker. Perhaps by the late weekend. This is currently reflected late in the forecast period with temperatures going from the 70s Friday and Saturday back into the 80s Sunday. Even if the trough lingers, a lack of moisture will provide for a mainly dry forecast through the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Near surface smoke may impact KDIK and KXWA. LLWS to impact KMOT, KBIS and KJMS. VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. The exception could be late tonight into Labor Day morning as forecast models indicate an increase in near surface smoke over western ND. For now included minimal reductions to VSBY with 6SM vsby in smoke at KDIK and KXWA. The latest observation from beach is down to 4 miles so there is the possibility of visibility reductions due to smoke in the west. Elsewhere smoke is expected to remain aloft with no VSBY reductions. Moderate southeast flow will remain ahead of an advancing frontal boundary currently near KXWA and just west of KDIK. as the boundary moves east stronger surface winds will diminish and shift southwest to west. This is expected to occur at KDIK overnight, at KMOT and KBIS Monday afternoon, and late afternoon to early evening Monday at KJMS. Late tonight into Monday morning, before this wind shift occurs, there will be a period of LLWS at KBIS, KMOT and KJMS with strong southerly winds to around 40 knots just above the surface. Thunderstorm activity in the north central has moved east of Minot so no need to include VCTS at KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...Anglin LONG TERM...Anglin AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
852 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the area early this week. A cold front will slowly move through and likely stall in the vicinity mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A rather expansive area of showers with a few embedded tstms is approaching the Altamaha River. This activity is associated with a well-defined outflow boundary that has been propagating northeast across far Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida over the past few hours. While the atmosphere ahead of this activity has stabilized somewhat, enough mixed-layer instability is in place to keep some of this going for the next few hours as it slowly weakens. The latest H3R and RAP both suggest this boundary could reach as far northeast as Savannah with activity gradually weakening with time as it approaches the metro area. This scenario looks reasonable given current radar trends. Near term pops were adjusted to reflect 60-70% pops over McIntosh, Long and Liberty Counties with 40-50% pops over the Savannah Metro Area. Guidance still supports a redevelopment of convection along the Georgia coast prior to daybreak as coastal convergence builds as the low-level flow backs slightly. Lows from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston look on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The western periphery of an offshore upper ridge will remain over the region through the period. A narrow trough to the west with an embedded low across the Midwest will redevelop southward over Texas. At the surface, high pressure across eastern Canada will extend into the southern regions. Monday will feature a weak surface trough which will make up for the lack of forcing and will aid in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters in the morning. Convection should then begin to become more widespread and shift inland through the day with a progressive sea breeze. With PWATS incredibly high Monday, upwards of 2.3" in some areas, heavy downpours are possible which will at least lead to localized minor flooding. Widespread evaporative cooling from rainfall should temper the highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday. The higher moisture content will gradually diminish over the next couple of days, lowering the risk factor for heavy rains/flooding. Subtle influence from ridging aloft will suppress widespread convection, although isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday mainly in the afternoon. Warmer temperatures are expected both days, reaching near 90F or the lower 90s across most locations. Lows will only dip into the mid 70s across most places, and warmer along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper trough with an embedded closed low over ArkLaTex will become more expansive into the weekend, continuously pulling in deep Gulf moisture. With the forecast area positioned within the downstream flow of the upper trough, large scale forcing will be plentiful. A weak cold front looks to press into the region early in the period which is expected to eventually stall across or near the coast by the end of the week. Due to these combination of factors, we are expecting an active, wet pattern through the weekend. This will help moderate temperatures, with highs topping out in the mid 80s. Min temps will remain relatively mild in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Convection should largely be over by issuance time for the 00z TAF cycle. VFR will prevail for much of the period. Scattered showers and possibly a tstm or two are expected to reform along the Georgia coast prior to daybreak, possibly extending as far north as KNBC, KARW and KHXD. While most of this should remain east of KSAV, it will be close enough (within 5-10SM) to justify a VCSH roughly 09-12z. No mention will be include at KCHS or KJZI. Similar to today, another round of showers/tstms are expected to develop along the coast and push inland as the day progresses. Much of this activity looks to remain south of KCHS and KJZI, but could impact KSAV early-mid afternoon. VCSH will be highlighted 17z on for KSAV, but mention will be included at either Charleston terminal. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are possible at any time due to showers/thunderstorms and in the early mornings due to fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Tonight: East to southeast around 10 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Monday through Friday: Onshore flow will continue early this week as high pressure extends into the area. A cold front will then move into the region and likely stall during the middle to later parts of the week. Aside from any showers/thunderstorms, no real marine concerns with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet. Rip Currents: A 2-3 ft swell around 10 seconds being generated from distant tropical cyclone Earl combined with occasional onshore winds will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents at all of our beaches starting on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of the upcoming perigee, full moon, swell from distant tropical cyclone Earl, and occasional onshore winds will lead to elevated tides. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed starting the middle of next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
915 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .DISCUSSION... Update: The Red Flag Warning for portions of the area this evening has expired as relative humidity begins to recover with light winds expected tonight. Critical fire weather conditions will repeat for Monday for much of the region. Otherwise, haze and smoke will continue to be an issue at times tonight per HRRR near surface guidance. Vertically integrated smoke will remain elevated into Monday with some improvement near surface during the day, but it may take until a cold front pushes through by Monday evening into Monday night before conditions markedly improve. Previous Discussion: Disturbance that brought clouds across the northern zones this morning/early afternoon is pushing off to our east. The semi- permanent upper ridge over the western states will resume it`s reign over the area and keep things hot and dry across the area another day. Critical fire weather conditions look certain for most of the fire weather district. But the flow across Montana late Monday becomes zonal and introduces a cold front. Temps will "cool" to the 80s to around 90 then the upper ridge brings back the warmer conditions for Wednesday. Look for highs in the 90s east to near 100 west. Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible, especially if winds strengthen. The spine of the upper ridge then looks to break-down a bit as temps cool into Friday. Look for temps to cool closer to normal with the slight possibility for showers. The upper ridge looks to rebound a bit next Sunday with highs in the 80s to near 90. TFJ && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 1930Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR but Slantwise visibility will be limited due to wildfire smoke. MVFR conditions are possible by 6 PM. Smoke will gradually clear out to our east this evening. Mainly clear skies are expected through Labor Day. WIND: West diminishing to 10 kts or less this evening. West winds then increase by Monday afternoon to 10-20 kts. EQUIPMENT: While the KGDV visibility sensor is down, amendments will be limited to clouds and wind for this terminal. TFJ && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity as low as 10 percent and west winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the presence of very dry fuels will again lead to critical fire conditions for much of the region on Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 pm MOnday for FWZs 134, 135, 136, 120, and 122. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1057 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Muggy conditions will continue into this evening with scattered showers and storms as a slow moving front pushes down from Canada. This front will stall over southern New England providing a cool, cloudy, and showery Labor Day for our region. Drier air gradually returns from the north Tuesday, which will culminate in a mostly sunny and warm second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1055 PM Update...Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated as of late this Sunday evening. However, one area still exists across northern Carroll County in NH into adjacent western ME. These will eventually lessen in intensity but for another hour or two, heavy rainfall rates will be likely. This is currently covered by a flood advisory. Elsewhere, mainly dry weather is expected. However, with such a moist air mass in place, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could pop up at anytime with the attendant threat for heavy rainfall. 645 PM Update...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the forecast area at this time, mainly along a line roughly from Augusta ME southwestward to northern Cheshire County in NH. A few of these storms could become strong or marginally severe over the next 2 hours or so. But overall, the main threat will be brief heavy downpours. Previously... The latest HRRR and Namnest solutions continue to bring scattered convection over portions of the forecast area at least through this evening. Warm and moist conditions will continue this evening with dew points remaining in the 60s. Thereafter, slightly drier conditions will enter northern areas, but still with a chance for showers during the night as a cold front slowly pushes south of our region. There will be some patchy fog overnight, mostly over portions of southern and central New Hampshire. There will be quite a large range in temperatures overnight. Look for only 40s in the north to the 50s and lower 60s in southern locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As an upper level trough approaches the region on Monday, the chances for shower activity will increase. The highest pops will be in southern and central areas near an areas of deep moisture. However, scattered showers will be possible in northern areas as well as a weak wave of low pressure forms along the frontal zone. The low clouds and moisture will keep temperatures fairly steady during the day, hovering in the 50s to lower 60s in most locations. By Monday night, the best chance for showers will begin to shift south of our region. Patchy fog will be possible once again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper trough axis slides south across the area Tuesday helping to push a stationary boundary south of New England. High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday afternoon for a drying trend. Building heights aloft and high pressure at the surface bring fair weather and a slight warming trend Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front sinks south across Canada late Thursday, but does not make it across the International Border with continued dry weather and warming temperatures into the weekend. A cold front may approach late in weekend, although distant tropical activity in the western Atlantic may act to continue ridging aloft over the area through the end of the forecast period. Showers linger across southern New Hampshire and far SW Maine Tuesday morning while the northern two thirds of the area will be mostly dry. Shower activity diminishes across the far south through the morning with skies turning partly to mostly sunny from north to south during the afternoon as high pressure builds in from the north. East to northeast flow will keep temperatures mainly in the 60s with some spots approaching the low 70s. Residual low level moisture will bring patchy fog Tuesday night, mainly in sheltered interior locations. Short wave ridging slides across the area Wednesday for a sunny day with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s. A cold front sinks south across SE Canada Thursday, but looks to remain north of the area with only slight chances for a showers and more clouds in the mountains. Otherwise, another fine day looks to be in store with temperatures climbing a few degrees high than Wednesday. Heights then build over the Northeast Friday into the weekend bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s with slightly cooler conditions near the coast. Precipitation chances look dismal through the weekend into early next week as potential tropical activity in the western Atlantic acts to hold the ridge overhead with little eastward progression of the next upstream trough. The only impacts that look possible at this time from the tropical activity will be building long period swell next weekend, although guidance suggest wave heights will be rather unimpressive. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Patchy fog expected tonight. Low clouds may also allow for IFR conditions in a few locations. The latest HREF solution has the most low cloud cover confined mainly to New Hampshire as moisture pools in that region through Monday and into Monday night. Long Term...Lingering showers and low cigs may extend flight restrictions across southern terminals Tuesday morning with improvement expected through the day. VFR is likely through the end of the week except for overnight patchy valley fog at KLEB/KHIE. The best chances of more widespread fog occur Tuesday night with residual low level moisture from the rain that occurs Monday into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and begin to increase as the gradient increases in a cold air advection pattern. Winds may gust up to 20 kt later tonight and Monday over the coastal waters. Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through the end of the week. Steady NE flow persists over the waters Tuesday with gusts up to 20 kts and potential for lingering showers and fog. High pressure generally remains in control from the middle to end of the week. Long period swell from distant tropical activity may enter the Gulf of Maine over the weekend with wave heights approaching 5 ft by the end of the period. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Schroeter
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
850 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 849 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a trough axis that extends from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley southwestward into the southern Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft to the east of this trough continues to stream moisture into the area. PW values are currently near 2 inches across the forecast area. Radar imagery indicates numerous to widespread showers across the area but activity is currently light. There has been a nocturnal decrease in the intensity of precipitation across the area over the last couple of hours. Precipitation intensity is higher further south across central Alabama and Georgia and this area of showers/storms is moving to the northeast. Models indicate a upper jet will strengthen across Middle Tennessee later tonight around 06-09z. The jet will intensify to around 60 kts. This will lead to a slight uptick in the low-level jet and will put the forecast area in the favored right entrance region of the jet, especially across northeast Alabama. Additionally, CAMs indicate a clear upward trend in convection late tonight into early Monday morning across northeast Alabama. With PW values remaining near to above 2 inches, expect another round of heavy rainfall will be possible later tonight and into Monday morning. Due to this, went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for the entire forecast area. Expect areas with the highest chance to experience flooding will be across northeast Alabama tonight. However, went ahead and issued for the entire area with a few locations across the area already experiencing 3 to 7 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Lows tonight will continue to be on the mild side in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 The upper trough/low will begin digging into the ArkLaTex region on Monday, and drier air may temporarily result in a decrease in activity over northwest AL. The remainder of the area will stay in a moist airmass, with PWAT values near 2". Will keep scattered to numerous showers and storms in the forecast for Labor Day, with the highest chances (70-80%) over northeast AL. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s with mostly cloudy skies. Those with outdoor plans will once again need to monitor the weather and quickly move indoors if thunder occurs. The upper low will begin to weaken, and our eyes will turn to another low pressure system that will dig across MO on Tuesday. As this system tracks south, will see an increase in showers and storms north of the area. With the Tennessee Valley still in a moisture rich airmass, scattered diurnal thunderstorms will remain in the forecast especially during the afternoon on Tuesday. Highs will be a little warmer Tuesday, rising to the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 An unsettled pattern will continue for extended period. Mean troughing will persist over the SE CONUS, which will help to draw deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The models have maintained a diurnal trend, with best rain chances in the afternoon due to daytime heating and a more unstable environment. Forecasted area dewpoints will remain unseasonably high, ranging from the upper 60s night to lower 70s in the day hours. The models were in generally good agreement, with forecaster confidence up enough to keep blend recommended likely rain chances on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Because of persistent moisture, clouds, and rain chances, the latter half of the week will remain below normal temperature wise, with highs only in the lower 80s, but lows in the mid 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 VFR conditions currently at both terminals. Lightning activity has trended downward over the last couple of hours but there is a storm nearing MSL. Due to this, continued with VCTS at MSL through 03z. Did not include TS or VCTS through the remainder of the TAF period. May need to make amendments if any thunderstorms near the terminals. Otherwise, rainy conditions are forecast to continue with VCSH or SHRA in the terminals through the end of the TAF period. MVFR/IFR ceilings will also move into the terminals around 09z and persist throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...MA SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...MA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the area through Tuesday, with a very slow moving storm system across the region. By mid week, rain chances will end from north to south, as high pressure becomes dominant over the Great Lakes. Expect humid conditions to continue, though temperatures will not be excessively warm. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 An upper level trough remains nearly stationary over the Midwest, with a positively tilted axis from the upper Great Lakes through Arkansas. One shortwave feature that brought fairly widespread shower and thunder activity this afternoon and early evening has been diminishing in activity after sunset, possibly in response to another strengthening disturbance producing showers south of I-70. CAMs are generally reducing shower activity overnight with both features, however the latter/southern feature looks to be the one more likely to dominate if any overnight. Have trimmed back PoPs for most areas late this evening with most areas trending toward slight chance PoPs if any by Midnight. Chances look too low for mention north of I-72 by around Midnight. Lows ranging from 62 in Galesburg to 68 in Lawrenceville look on track for tonight and have made only minor tweaks. && .SHORT TERM...(Through Monday night) ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Upper level low pressure continues to spin across the St. Louis area this afternoon, with showers and isolated storms rotating around it. Recently, a more pronounced but narrow band of heavier showers formed roughly along I-72 from Springfield to Champaign. SPC mesoscale analysis shows this region favored for a few weak funnel clouds, with RAP guidance suggesting this potential lingering through sunset. By mid evening, much of the shower activity should be more focused just north of I-70. The upper low will meander across the region through Monday, with more of the surface reflection closer to the Ohio River. Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered across the forecast area, though coverage toward Peoria and Galesburg will be more isolated, and the greatest coverage on Monday will be near and south of I-70. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A fairly interesting upper level pattern will emerge this week. Not a lot of movement expected through Wednesday, as the heat dome remains in place over the western U.S., and the synoptic models show a piece of the upper trough closing off over the lower Mississippi Valley. With time, the western high will get squished between the lower Mississippi Valley low, a tropical system moving up Baja California, and a deepening trough moving out of Canada. The European model consequently closes off an upper low over the Dakotas this weekend, while the GFS holds off until Sunday and develops it over northwest Missouri. This introduces quite a bit of uncertainty with the rain chances for the upcoming weekend. Blended guidance appears to lean more toward the European solution, but with the significant variations in models, see no reason to deviate from it at this time. Temperatures will edge up slowly and peak in the 80-85 degree range mid to late week, cooling during the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of the central IL terminals this evening. The best chances for a thunderstorms remain at KPIA and KBMI where TEMPO for TSRA is included through the first hour of the 00Z TAFs, but otherwise only -SHRA/VCSH mentioned this evening. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually decrease overnight, however additional isolated SHRA/TSRA could pop up Monday late morning through afternoon. Only VCSH/VCTS mentioned at this point with relatively low probability and coverage expected. Cigs/vsbys this evening are primarily VFR, but will steadily worsen overnight as MVFR cigs develop by 03Z-06Z, and IFR likely at most terminals by 07Z-09Z. Gradual improvement in cigs expected late Monday morning into afternoon. Winds NE 5-10 kts through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...37
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1101 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022 The forecast remains largely on track late this evening with the heavier showers dying off and lighter areas of rain developing. An area of moderate rain is still making its way northward over Martin and Pike counties but should move on in the next hour or so. Have refined the hourly PoPs to reflect the current radar trends. CAMs do hint at a resurgence in shower development closer to dawn. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022 Precipitation has started to increase in coverage across eastern Kentucky with a few instances of training showers and areas receiving repeated heavy rainfall. Most potential issues have been covered with flood advisories with a few locations warranting flash flood warnings. A broader area of showers is located over the far southern counties and continues to stream northward. Showers are becoming less efficient rain makers as daytime heating ends and some instability is lost, though showers and storms will continue into the overnight. The main change in this update was freshening up the hourly temperature grids as temperatures have fallen off where precipitation has occurred and clouds continue to stream in. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 529 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022 Little has changed since yesterday. Late this afternoon a large, weak, slow moving upper level trough extends from eastern TX to the Great Lakes, where it meets up with a more progressive trough in the prevailing westerlies aloft. Upper level ridging is off the southeast coast. In between, our flow is from the southwest over a very long fetch, bringing deep tropical moisture over the region. At the surface, a high pressure ridge remains near the East Coast. Flow around the west side of the surface ridge is bringing warm and humid air northward across the region. The flow continues to have a downslope component in the JKL forecast area, especially the eastern counties. However, the flow is very weak, and the drying influence is minimal. The setup is producing showers and thunderstorms, especially since diurnal destabilization occurred. Models show precipitable water generally from 1.75-2 inches. This scenario will change very little through Monday evening. Features focusing convection are very weak and difficult to pin down. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will likely persist into this evening, but eventually show diminishing coverage as heating is lost. The GFS and the HRRR indicate another uptick in activity toward dawn, with the NAM following suit during Monday morning. Have followed this general trend in the forecast. If this is the case, it could keep activity later in the day Monday somewhat more limited by inhibiting heating. However, confidence is not very high in the evolution. With weak flow, high atmospheric moisture content, and forecast soundings showing thin CAPE in the column, conditions favor heavy rainfall. However, very weak features, weak inflow, and lack of organization would probably keep any hydro problems fairly localized. A Flood Watch into Monday evening was inherited and let it ride to cover this threat. The upper level trough will continue to slowly advance, especially on the northern end as it gets dragged along by the more progressive trough in the prevailing westerlies. By the end of Monday night, this will make our flow aloft a bit more zonal, and the highest precipitable water is expected to shift eastward. Weak surface low pressure is expected to develop east of the Appalachians Monday night, and this will result in very little low level flow in our area. The combination of factors should reduce our heavy rain threat. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 335 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022 A very active weather pattern is anticipated in the extended, as a series of upper level troughs, sluggish surface fronts, and perhaps a closed low all make their way through the region. The most active periods will be during the afternoon and early evening hours from Tuesday on into the upcoming weekend. Persistent and at times widespread cloud cover, along with repeated rounds of rainfall, will keep temperatures below normal each day. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are on tap because of this. Nightly should bottom out in the mid 60s on average. Winds will be either out of the light and out of south or light and variable during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2022 Scattered showers and storms will continue to move across the area, from north to south and will bring potential impacts to the TAF sites during the period. This pattern is expected to continue through the period which has created a messy TAF situation. Have kept VCSH for the overnight period but as precipitation chances increase tomorrow morning SHRA has been added to the prevailing. Later in the day, thunderstorms chances will increase as instability increases. Ceilings will also lower later in the day tomorrow. Direct impacts to TAF sites will lower visibilities below VFR and will also bring increased winds and wind gusts. Sub- VFR conditions will stick around tomorrow morning and through the afternoon as ceilings lower, mixing is kept to a minimum and precipitation increases in areal coverage. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119. && $$ UPDATE...BATZ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BATZ
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 After the coolest temps in months early this morning, widespread 70s have developed across the area this afternoon. And with easterly winds almost exclusively below 10 knots, I can only assume it`s very comfortable outdoors. Little has changed over the past 24 hours, weather-wise, and the upper pattern will hold through most of the upcoming shortened work week. At the surface, a weak low pressure system spins near St. Louis, MO and is producing some fair weather cu at 2,500 feet across the southeastern CWA. This area is among the most likely to see patchy fog development overnight as temps will be a bit cooler there and dewpoint depressions a degree or two smaller. Winds may be just a bit too quick for widespread fog development, but valleys seem like a safe bet for reduced visibility overnight. The blocking ridge over the western CONUS will grow in strength, size, and influence through mid-week, providing increasing heights along the northern Missouri River basin. By Thursday, some heights and temps may reach the 99.5th climatological percentile. In other words, forecast conditions only have about a one in thirty chance of developing in any given September. Granted, the GFS and GEFS have been running much too hot and mixing much too deep as of late and I believe it`s skewing these numbers. Regardless, each of the next four days should generally be a couple of degrees warmer than the day prior. Isolated triple digits are possible along the SD state line by Thursday. NBM probabilities put Yankton, SD`s probability of hitting 100F near 10%. That also happens to be about the chance that Omaha hits 95 that same afternoon. It`s not quite record heat territory, but it`s pretty toasty for September`s first half. Global models diverge in the timing of the eventual pattern change, but all break down the ridge to some degree around Friday or so. This may bring a chance of some showers or storms, but timing and location preclude a reasonable inclusion in the extended forecast. Early indications suggest a cool down for the weekend... though it`s residence time varies from solution to solution. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Somewhat tricky forecast. Expect some fog development late tonight and possibly some MVFR to IFR ceilings as well. Fairly moist low level airmass which has been in place across IA, MO parts of eastern KS and southeast NE will remain present. There is a fairly wide spread of model guidance in regards to how low ceilings and visibilities will go. Generally used a blend of model guidance, but with lowest weights given to HRRR, RAP and NAM. That is somewhat unusual, but will go with that for now idea and adjust later if needed. Any fog that develops should lift by 14 or 15Z Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
829 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Of all CAMs looked at during these early evening hours, latest HRRR initialized best with a realistic weather pattern evolution through remainder of tonight. Leaned accordingly toward this solution which means overall rain chances will be lower than previously expected for at least remainder of evening hours tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible with some of the stronger storms producing heavy rainfall. 05/00Z OHX Sounding profile illustrating PW values around 1.75 inch, with SFC/MUCAPE values around 1,500 J/KG, but little if any vertical wind shear. Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly mid to late evening gridded values. Current temperature trends continue to generally be in line with forecasted lows. Despite not as much rainfall expected this evening, but with a continuance of saturated ground conditions across our area, will continue with Flood Watch tonight through 06/00Z (7 PM CDT Monday) for entire mid state region. Sent out earlier refreshed suite of forecast products. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 A Flash Flood Watch remains in place for most of Middle Tennessee. We continue to expect periods of showers and thunderstorms this evening and again tomorrow with heavy rainfall in some spots. This rainfall could cause local flash flooding, especially for areas that have received significant rainfall over the past couple of days. Hardest hit locations over the past couple of days include Maury County, De Kalb County and surrounding areas, and southeast Robertson County, all having more than 5 inches in some spots. Other locations could be impacted as well with expected rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour from the stronger storms. The stormy action is occurring on the favorable east side of a low pressure system that has been stalled over the Mid Ms Valley for days. The low is sandwiched between strong high pressure systems over the Atlantic and back over the western states. This setup has also been favorable for channeling tropical moisture into the region from the Gulf and from the Pacific. On Monday, the low will shift and pivot slightly, cutting down the tropical connection and moving the main focus for heavy rainfall east of our area. It is not a huge change, but we may end up with less coverage and intensity of rain by Monday afternoon, possibly allowing us to remove the watch early. Part of that decision will depend on how much rain we receive late today through tonight. Average rainfall expected through Monday will be 1 to 2 inches, but the heavier storms could produce that much each hour in some spots. So again, the threat is not widespread, but locations that get the heaviest downpours could have flash flooding developing in a short time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 The unsettled pattern of daily shower and thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and likely into next weekend. The activity will peak in the afternoon and early evening hours each day. The low pressure will not really go away, but it will shift, pivot, and interact with a couple of incoming systems. This will cause variability in the coverage and intensity of the rainfall from day to day. Generally, we expect intensity and coverage to decrease through midweek with the lowest coverage on Thursday. After that, tropical moisture will start to be tapped again, and we will see increasing trends for coverage and intensity Friday and Saturday. This pattern does not look favorable for severe wx, but a few storms here and there may produce strong winds over 40mph. Also, any strong or slow moving storms could bring a localized, brief threat for flooding throughout this week. Overnight lows will be on the muggy side while daytime highs will be a little below normal with more than usual clouds and showers. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Showers and storms are much more isolated this evening than they were yesterday. The best chance for any reduced visibility due to rain will be before midnight. After midnight cigs may remain around MVFR heights with some fog development possible. Precip coverage looks to stay low on Monday, so kept impacts out of TAFs for tomorrow. Winds will be light and generally out of the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50 Clarksville 70 83 69 86 / 50 50 20 50 Crossville 65 76 65 80 / 80 80 40 60 Columbia 70 84 68 87 / 40 60 30 50 Cookeville 68 80 67 83 / 60 80 40 50 Jamestown 65 76 65 80 / 70 90 40 60 Lawrenceburg 69 83 68 84 / 60 60 30 50 Murfreesboro 69 84 68 87 / 60 70 30 50 Waverly 68 83 67 85 / 50 50 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday evening for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham- Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles- Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon- Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson- Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne- White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Whitehead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
854 PM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .UPDATE...Some showers were developing along our east slopes of the WA cascades in response to a weakening weather system tracking across the pacnw. The hrrr model was confining the showers along the cascades overnight while the remainder of the area remains dry although some smoke from surrounding fires may impact locations across the area. The surface winds may increase some overnight mainly in the gorge and along and north of the OR/WA state line. Minor changes were done to pops and sky and temps tonight that are forecast to fall into the 50s and low 60s with 40s in the area mountains. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 PM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing dry conditions under mostly clear skies. However, there has been smoke/haze extending from Central Oregon through the John Day/Ochoco Highlands and into the Wallowas today due to local wildfires and dry southwesterly flow aloft. Smoke/haze should improve slightly tonight into Monday as a weak, embedded cold front moves through the area. This will provide a chance for showers over the Washington Cascades tonight into Monday morning, mainly focused along the crest. Ahead of the front, winds will be increasing through the Eastern Gorge, Cascade gaps, and the Kittitas Valley with gusts of 20 to 30 mph out of the west expected through the remainder of the day. Winds will slowly subside tonight into Monday across the area, with the exception of the Kittitas Valley still incurring gusts of 15 to 20 mph from the northwest that will extend through much of the day on Monday. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind the weak front and more zonal, westerly flow aloft. Highs are expected to peak in the mid to upper 80s through the Basin and in the mid to upper 70s for the mountains. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s into Tuesday morning. The upper level ridge to our southeast then rebuilds into Tuesday as highs return to the low to mid 90s. Moisture from a disturbance off the Baja Peninsula looks to ride up the backside of the ridge and move into our area as it spins around the high on Tuesday. This could be enough moisture to trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two over the Cascades on Tuesday, but confidence is still rather low. Guidance is in good agreement with the overall pattern, but differences regarding ridge strength arise Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF incurs a stronger ridge than the GFS, which merely relates to slightly warmer temperatures and a lower chance of showers over the Cascades Tuesday due to a slightly drier airmass present. The current forecast keeps conditions dry over the Cascades on Tuesday, but showers may need to be included if this morning`s model trends continue. 75 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...The ensembles and models are still showing some uncertainty in the incoming system. However, each model is at least in some agreement that a trough will move towards the region causing the current ridge to break down. Primary concerns will be the potential for some instability over the already active fires in the region on Wednesday afternoon. Hot temperatures and low RH values coupled with an increase in winds as the ridge breaks down, could lead to continued active growth on the fires and elevated fire weather concerns on Wednesday. Wednesday is the primary day of concern with the potential ridge breakdown. ECMWF/Canadian/NAM/GFS models are all showing an upper level trough moving towards the region. The GFS has it moving northward along with a closed low forming off the Or coast, the ECMWF has it traversing north of the CWA while the Canadian has it a bit north and still offshore. The WPC cluster ensemble is showing some variance with the timing and location of the trough and the multi-model is showing a weak trough just north of the CWA. Regardless of these differences, one thing is clear, there will be a trough later this week which will assist in breaking down the ridge by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. With the trough moving towards the region by Wednesday night the models are showing that some mid level moisture will move into the region and theta e lapse rates are in the negatives, signaling the potential for some lift. Models are also showing that there is some higher levels of CAPE possible, up to 600 J/Kg, especially over the Wallowa Mts where we have current active fires. With this, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms possible over Wallow County Wednesday afternoon. With that said, the ECMWF EFI is still picking up a strong signal of well above seasonal temperatures for Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for the Basin, Gorge and Central Or, 100+ in the lower valleys and 70s in the higher terrain. Thursday and Friday, the trough will move into the PacNW and break the ridge down a bit farther. Due to this breakdown, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal norms for Thursday and Friday and the ECMWF EFI of 0.5-0.6 corroborates the trend down. Highs will be in the mid 80s for the Basin adjacent Valleys and Central Or, and in the high 70s low 80s for the higher terrains both days. As we move into the weekend, the models and ensembles are bringing in another ridge from the Four corners area. AVIATION...vfr conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds between 20 to 25 mph are possible at taf site kdls until around 06z and again after 20z Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 54 83 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 58 85 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 62 86 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 54 83 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 59 86 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 80 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 47 83 47 94 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 84 51 96 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 51 90 54 104 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 61 87 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...97
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1040 PM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend along the coast of the Carolinas and Southeast states through Monday, as an upper level trough and surface cold front approach our area from the northwest. This front will slowly drift southeast into North Carolina Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure continues to extend into area this evening from off the New England coast, while a mid level ridge remains parked off the southern Mid-Atlantic coast (centered a bit further east tonight though). Meanwhile, and inverted trough extends from the upstate of SC into the western Piedmont of central NC. The more eastward center of the mid level ridge and the surface high shifting a bit more to the north and east has allowed the good moisture plume to shift eastward and northward into our area, allowing PW`s of around 1.75 to 2 inches to filter into the area. This coupled with good southeast to southerly low level flow interacting with the inverted surface trough/remnant outflow lingering across the northwest Piedmont has allowed for the near constant redevelop of showers and storms for Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford this evening. The latest HRRR shows the potential for this to continue for the next hour or two, then shift to the north and west of our area. Upward of 3 inches of rain has fallen across portions of this area, likely pushing area creeks and streams upward. However, given the rather dry conditions over the last several weeks and resultant higher flash flood guidance we haven`t had any reports of flooding. Thus, have opted to issue a Flood Advisory to account for any minor flooding, especially in urban poor drainage areas. After any lingering convection dies off in the northwest, expect dry conditions areawide overnight, with a chance of some fog and stratus in areas that saw rain today. Overnight lows will remain mild, with low temps expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Sunday... The pattern aloft will change little across the ern US this period and remain characterized by a positive tilt trough from the lwr Great Lakes swwd across the mid MS valley and srn Plains and a pair of mid-level ridges over FL and about midway between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras. Intervening swly flow aloft will remain maximized from the lwr MS Valley to the srn Appalachians and Mid Atlantic and consequently to the northwest of cntl NC, where mainly weakly perturbed, but increasingly-moist (PWs up to 1.75-2.0") swly flow will result. The strongest forcing for ascent over w-cntl NC will likely not arrive until overnight Mon, when the models indicate a stronger mid-level disturbance will lift through ern TN and wrn NC. At the surface, high pressure will continue to extend from offshore the Mid Atlantic coast swwd across the ern Carolinas, while a trough/low redevelop in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians. Multi-layer cloudiness from MVFR range stratus/stratocumulus and mid/high-level moisture will again focus over the wrn NC Piedmont on Mon, as will the chance of showers and isolated storms. Temperatures should again reach the upr 80s to lwr 90s except where those clouds and chance of convection are maximized over the wrn Piedmont, where mid 80s are expected. While the evening and early nighttime hours should be mainly dry, 12Z HREF members except the FV3 depict a band or to of showers and isolated storms moving across the Piedmont after midnight, seemingly coincident with the glancing of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance tracking across ern TN/wrn NC. Increasing low-level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints around 70 F or so will favor similar low temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Despite decent model agreement in the extended, confidence is below average given the relative proximity of weather systems and potential for a small shift in the pattern to significantly increase rain chances. In general, over the next several days the base of the positively tiled upper trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley is expected to separate from the westerlies and meander over south-central US. TS Earl is forecast to track north well off the East Coast, likely helping to slowly amplify the ridge axis along the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracking across the Northeast will send a cold front south into the Carolinas midweek, followed by northeasterly low-level flow beneath the upper ridge for the end of the week. The best moisture flux through the week will be across the Gulf Coast States with veering southeasterly flow into the southern Appalachians, putting central NC mostly just east of daily showers and storms (and likely an extended flooding threat). The cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday may be the best opportunity for most areas to see some rain, afterwhich the it is forecast...shifts back to the western Piedmont being diurnally favored for showers and storms given deeper moisture, with lesser chances to the east under the ridge axis. Temps will likely be at for below normal, especially toward the end of the week with increased cloud cover and an easterly low-level fetch. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... 24-hour TAF period: Multiple areas of showers and storms have redeveloped over the NW Piedmont, which may continue to result in brief periods of sub-VFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings this evening around INT and GSO. One area of showers and storms is currently moving across far western Davidson and Forsyth counties, but the heaviest rain should stay just west of INT. Any lingering convection should weaken and push farther west over the next few hours. However, some IFR to MVFR ceilings will again be possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning at GSO and especially INT. Patchy fog also can`t be ruled out in the NW Piedmont especially around INT with all the rain that has fallen in Forsyth County this evening. Farther east at FAY and RWI, patchy fog will be possible between about 08z to 12z as well. Even though model guidance is having a hard time picking up on it, included potential for MVFR stratus to linger into the late morning at all TAF sites except RWI, similar to what happened this past morning. More isolated to widely scattered showers and maybe an isolated storm could develop over the western Piedmont (including INT and GSO) tomorrow afternoon. Looking beyond 00Z Tuesday: Patchy fog at FAY and RWI, and sub-VFR stratus at Piedmont sites, will be possible again Tue morning, followed by the passage of a cold front and chance of post-frontal MVFR ceilings in nely flow Thu and Fri morning. Otherwise, there will be a better chance of showers/storms area-wide Tue afternoon- evening. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...Danco/MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 We will continue to sit between the high pressure across the western U.S. and the low pressure across eastern Texas. There may be a couple minor disturbances embedded within the flow of these two systems. Enough support may exist to develop a few isolated thunderstorms across our area this afternoon and evening. In fact, the HRRR indeed develops this activity briefly before it tappers off for this evening. Otherwise, the messaging largely remains the same as the previous forecast issuance as confidence remains high in this being the correct solution. It is worthwhile to note the Storm Prediction Center does include the Big Country withing their marginal risk for severe weather. The main hazard does seem to be damaging winds. Again, this activity will be rather isolated in nature this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 The upper level pattern through the extended period will feature a large upper high centered over Utah to our west and a persistent upper trough that will extend from the Tennessee Valley into the Arklatex region through at least the end of the week. This pattern will result in mid/upper level northerly flow over the area through the upcoming weekend, with little chance for precipitation. We still need to keep an eye on a tropical depression that is currently situated about 200 miles off the southwest coast of Mexico, however, possible influence from this system is waning. Earlier model data a few days ago had this system tracking north across the Baja Peninsula, with tropical moisture be shunted northeast and eastward across Texas by late in the week. However, latest model guidance continues to track this tropical system farther west offshore of the Baja Peninsula and eventually northwest due to the strong high north of the system. Given the latest model trends, the forecast will remain dry through next weekend, with temperatures generally near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Isolated to scattered TSRA may affect KABI through the next few hours, but most other sites should avoid any thunderstorm activity. The only other site that could see some activity would be KBBD, and will amend if necessary. Otherwise, expect light east to southeasterly winds through Monday evening, with VFR conditions prevailing through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10 San Angelo 68 93 68 94 / 0 10 10 10 Junction 67 92 68 91 / 0 20 10 10 Brownwood 69 93 68 93 / 20 20 10 10 Sweetwater 70 94 69 94 / 10 10 0 10 Ozona 66 89 66 89 / 0 10 0 10 Brady 68 91 68 91 / 10 20 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...20