Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
221 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Monday Night...
It`s still gonna be hot, it`s still gonna be dry, and at times,
it`s still gonna be breezy. Upper ridging persists in dominating
the next few days, and continues to bring these sweaty conditions
(yes, we know it`s a dry heat) to the area.
The surge of dry air noted in low-level water vapor continues, as
it`s currently located over central MT now, just east of the
continental divide, with dewpoints as low as 3 observed around
Bozeman as of 1 PM. Looking to the east, winds are gusting 20-30
mph. Despite their red flag warning dropping this evening, a very
strong low level jet, with speeds up to 45 mph at 850 mb, will
pick up and persist overnight, likely impacting the higher hills
in the area. So while humidities will begin to climb, winds will
remain a prominent issue. Focus shifts back to south-central MT on
Sunday, as a frontal passage will occur in the morning, bringing
breezy west winds in its wake that will mix down to the surface.
Dryness will continue, hence will keep the Red Flag Warning
going. An additional area of concern for fire weather conditions
will be Big Horn County, as they will see wind speeds 15-20 mph
behind the front in the late morning and early afternoon. However,
since this will likely occur before the lowest humidities come
into play, have opted to keep them out of the Red Flag Warning for
now.
Temperatures are already around ~90 as of 1 PM, so reaching 100
still seems likely later this afternoon. While slightly cooling
off behind tomorrow`s morning front (and slight is being used very
sparingly), temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper
90s again. The last item to note is the smoke potential.
Confidence has unfortunately increased for much of the area to see
smoke mix down to the surface for much of the day tomorrow and
into Sunday night, with multiple runs of the latest HRRR smoke
pointing to this as well. Hence have introduced areas of smoke
into the forecast.
Monday, while having no fire weather concerns (solely due to
winds staying light), will still be very hot and dry, with
temperatures still reaching the mid to upper 90s.
Below are forecast and record highs for today:
FCST RECORD
Billings 102 97 (1978)
Livingston 102 98 (2017)
Miles City 101 102 (2005)
Sheridan 101 99 (1950)
Vertz
Tuesday through Saturday...
Upper ridge centered over Utah will continue to dominate our
weather Tuesday and Wednesday with hot and dry conditions. Tuesday
does look slightly cooler than Monday from a weak cold front
moving southward over the area early Tuesday morning. High
temperatures Tuesday will range from the 80s near Judith Gap to
90s across the rest of the area, highest over southeast MT.
On Wednesday, surface lee troughing will develop from Alberta
southeastward to MT and low-level flow will accordingly transition
to flow with a southerly component. This southerly flow will
facilitate downsloping and enhanced warming. High temperatures
Wednesday should range from the upper 90s to about 102 degrees.
The air will also be very dry with minimum relative humidity
dropping to near 10 percent and perhaps even a few percent lower
than that. Given this combination of elements, Wednesday is a
potential fire weather concern day.
Model solutions begin to diverge on Thursday. Models do
show a cold front crossing the area on Thursday but the timing and
strength of the front are uncertain with high temperatures on
Thursday ranging from the 70s to the 90s in the models. There is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the
evening as well.
Through Thursday, there will be the potential for smoky skies
as winds aloft carry smoke over our area from wildfires burning
to the west.
Then the overall pattern late next week is an upper
ridge centered somewhere to the southeast of our area with a
shortwave trough moving in over the Pacific Northwest. The
strength and speed of the trough vary considerably amongst the
model clusters; one cluster shows a weak trough that moves mainly
to the north of our area with less of a cooldown and drier
conditions while another cluster shows a deeper trough over the
Northern Rockies with a more pronounced cooldown and wetter
conditions. We do have confidence that after the expected heat
wave through mid-week, temperatures will cool. The uncertainty is
in how cool the temperatures will get. The model solutions do show
high temperatures somewhere in the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Given the possibility of a trough moving over the
region, there is also a chance of showers Friday and Saturday.
RMS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours under strong
high pressure aloft. Slant range visibility may be reduced at
times due to wildfire smoke. In addition, there will be southerly
winds at 30-40 kt tonight around 1000 to 2000 feet AGL, strongest
over southeast MT. JKL/RMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067/097 061/096 061/091 060/099 064/095 054/078 051/081
00/K 00/H 00/U 00/U 11/U 33/W 32/W
LVM 056/096 054/096 053/095 055/099 058/092 047/080 044/083
00/H 00/H 00/U 00/U 12/T 33/W 22/W
HDN 060/098 057/098 056/093 056/102 058/097 051/080 046/082
00/H 00/H 00/U 00/G 11/U 32/W 21/U
MLS 065/098 062/097 061/095 059/099 066/096 056/077 050/080
00/H 00/H 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/U
4BQ 065/097 062/096 062/094 059/099 067/096 054/079 050/080
00/H 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/U
BHK 061/097 062/095 060/095 058/096 065/095 054/077 048/077
00/H 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W 21/U
SHR 062/099 059/097 058/093 058/099 060/097 052/080 048/084
00/H 00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES
29>32-34-36-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169>173-228-235.
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONE
117.
Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONE
123.
Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR
ZONES 124-125-127-128-130.
Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
ZONES 130>133.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE
199.
Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
ZONE 274.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1011 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
Generally benign weather expected through the remainder of the
weekend.
Surface high pressure accompanied by east-northeasterly boundary
layer flow has settled over the forecast area late this afternoon.
Surface frontal boundary that brought a line of showers and
thunderstorms to the area very early this morning has pushed well
to the southeast. However, mainly mid to upper-level clouds
persist north of the boundary and have primarily been confined
south of a GRB to Y50 line in a region of low to mid-level
deformation. Appears area of weak deformation in concert with
pockets of enhanced low-level moisture being advected westward
across the southern half of Lake Michigan will keep at least SCT-
BKN clouds across eastern Wisconsin, generally south of Highway 29
overnight into Sunday morning. Some of the short-term model
guidance, including the RAP and HRRR, have been hinting at a few
light showers or sprinkles on Sunday morning along the lakeshore
where some weak boundary layer convergence is also forecast. Thus
have added some very low end pops over Manitowoc County prior to
17Z Sunday to account for this small possibility. With broad E-NE
flow across the forecast area, daytime highs Sunday will be below
normal with values in the 70-73 degree range with a few upper 60s
along the Lake Michigan shoreline.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
Dry and mild weather is expected for much of next
week with upper ridging from the Rockies to Great Lakes and a
surface high from the Great Lakes to New England.
There could be some showers as a cold front moves through Friday
night or early Saturday. With little or no Gulf moisture available
amounts should be light.
Temperatures should average 5 to 10 degrees above normal with high
heights and mild 850mb temperatures. A good period of weather for
late season summer activities.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
High pressure will reside over the western Great Lakes through the
TAF period, but there will still be a couple aviation concerns.
Winds should decrease enough over north central and far northeast
WI late tonight to allow patchy MVFR/IFR fog to form. Will keep
the mention of fog in the RHI TAF site overnight into early
Sunday morning.
Cool east flow over the warmer waters of Lake Michigan should
cause some MVFR stratus to develop over eastern WI overnight
into Sunday morning. This should impact the MTW/GRB/ATW TAF
sites. The low clouds should either rise to VFR or scatter out by
early to mid afternoon.
Gusty northeast winds in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas will
gradually diminish overnight, then pick up again (but not as
strong) on Sunday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
857 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 857 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a
shortwave trough to the west near the Mississippi River. At the
surface, there is a diffuse surface boundary draped across the
area. Surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s with PW values
near 2 inches. In this moisture rich environment, there have been
some efficient rain producing storms. Radar estimates as much as 5
inches of rain across northern Lawrence county where there is an
ongoing Flash Flood Warning. Fortunately, rainfall intensity and
coverage have decreased some over the last hour or so. Expect
there will be a nocturnal decrease in precipitation coverage and
intensity but with the surface boundary, shortwave trough, and
elevated moisture, continued with high PoPs during the overnight
period. Localized flash flooding will continue to be a threat into
the overnight hours, especially in areas of poor drainage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
The aforementioned low will slowly drift west through the short
term period, centering back over eastern MO. An upper vort max
will continue to support widespread showers and storms/ coupled
once again with rich boundary layer moisture and PWATs near 2".
Will have to monitor for flash flooding potential again, as heavy
rainfall received today will work to saturate soils and could
increase runoff potential. Mid to upper level winds will largely
be unidirectional, increasing the potential for training
showers/storms. Those with outdoor plans will also need to
monitor the potential for cloud to ground lightning and gusty
winds with any thunderstorms that develop. The persistent clouds
and rain will result in high temps slightly below normal through
Monday, topping out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows
will be near 70 degrees each night.
Numerous showers and storms are expected on Labor day, with the
highest chances (80-90%) east of I-65. Please monitor the forecast
if planning to spend time outdoors, and move to shelter quickly if
thunderstorms are in the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the greater
southeastern states for the upcoming week. A generalized ridging
west / troughing east pattern will remain over the CONUS for the
period. The presence of troughing extending southward from eastern
Canada will help draw deep Gulf moisture inland. Daytime heating and
resultant instability will result in the formation of primarily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water
amounts should decrease somewhat during the new week, ranging in the
1.5 to 1.8 inch range. This is enough for slow moving showers and
thunderstorms to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. Given that
good chances of showers are possible each day, repeated episodes of
rainfall could result higher soil moisture content. Runoff from
excessive rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding/flooding for
the period. Given that the precipitation will be of a showery nature
(hit or miss), limited PoPs to less than 55 percent for the afternoon
hours of next week.
With more clouds than sun and daily rain chances, high temperatures
for the extended period will average below seasonable norms. We are
staying with low/mid 80s for highs, with lows in the mid 60s to
around 70. Comparative normal high/low values by the middle of next
week are near 89/66.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
VFR conditions currently at the terminals with scattered
showers/storms in the area. Continued with VCTS in the terminals
through 02z. Expect to see a decrease in intensity overnight with
some showers lingering. MVFR ceilings are forecast after daybreak
with showers continuing. Expect a few thunderstorms will be
possible after 17z or so.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...MA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Skies are mostly clear across portions of northeast Mississippi
and west Tennessee with mostly cloudy skies over the remainder of
the Mid-South. Temperatures are the region this evening are in the
low to mid 70s. Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving north
from a line that is just east of the Mississippi River. This
activity has been producing some brief heavy downpours. The
showers and thunderstorms should slowly decrease in coverage
overnight. Will update forecast to remove evening wording.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2022/
DISCUSSION...
A line of showers and thunderstorms along the Mississippi river
valley is slowly shifting to the east. As of 2pm thunder has been
confined to the northern portion of the line near the Kentucky
state line. However, as temperatures continue to warm, lightning
will become more likely along the remainder of the line. Ahead
and behind the line skies are partly cloudy. As a result,
temperatures vary quite a bit across the Midsouth, from the lower
80s in northeast Arkansas where rain and clouds have been more
prevalent, to the lower 90s near and south of Memphis, between the
lines of showers.
A weak cutoff low can be seen on satellite over north central
Arkansas resulting in cloudy skies over most of Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. Expect the low and associated clouds to shift
to the east through the day resulting in partly to mostly cloudy
conditions across the Midsouth this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms should continue to strengthen and increase in
coverage through the early evening hours. Some strong to possibly
severe storms are possible in far northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee. The storm prediction
Center has included this region in a Marginal risk for severe
storms. The main threat will be localized damaging wind, although
heavy rain and lighting will also be threats. The Weather Prediction Center
has included all of west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and far
northeast Arkansas in a slight risk for excessive rainfall in
their day 1 product. The remainder of the Midsouth is under a
marginal risk. Their day 2(Sunday) outlook includes all of the
Midsouth in a marginal risk. Rainfall rates could exceed two
inches per hour, however the atmosphere is not favorable for
training or stationary storms, so the heaviest rainfall is not
expected to remain over or move over the same area multiple times.
Will nor include any flooding threat in the HWO.
Tomorrow into Monday looks like our highest chance of rainfall as
that weak trough...possibly featuring a weak cutoff low moves
very slowly to the east. South to southwest flow at the Surface
and aloft should keep an ample supply of moisture pumping into the
Midsouth. Once again widespread strong to severe thunderstorms
are not expected. High temperatures over the weekend and for much
of next week should remain in the 80s. Out coolest day will
probably be Monday with very minor by warmup midweek. A showery
forecast with mild temperatures is expected to continue for the
upcoming work week as a positively tilted trough remains in place
and a cutoff low develops over the plains and drifts towards the
Midsouth. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s for most of the
upcoming work week.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Rather messy aviation weather over the next 12 to 18 hours, with
a slow-moving upper level trof overhead. Short term concern for
evening will be TSRA trends. Expect a gradual weakening and at
least a partial transition to SHRA.
Overnight, MVFR/IFR appears a good bet west of surface trof/stationary
front oriented roughly along and east of the MS River. JBR will
remain firmly on the cool side of this boundary, and likely to
experience IFR after 09Z. Per latest HRRR runs, MEM will remain
in close proxmity to the front, complicating the VIS and CIG
forecasts. If the NAM`s depiction of a surface low 40S of MEM
verifies for 12Z verifies, this would place MEM immediately on the
cool side of the boundary and a good candidate for IFR.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1023 PM EDT Sat Sep 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the New England coast drifts east tonight
into Sunday. A cold front approaches from the north Sunday
afternoon, stalling near or just north of the area Sunday night
into Monday as a frontal wave tracks along it. The front then
moves slowly across the areas Monday night into Tuesday morning.
High pressure builds in on Wednesday, remaining in place
through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid and high clouds continue to stream in from the west tonight.
A west/east oriented cold front will remain north of the region.
An upper level Western Atlantic ridge weakens tonight and there
may be some vorticity energy moving around the periphery of the
ridge. This energy may be enough to support isolated showers
across the Lower Hudson Valley early Sunday morning. The HRRR
has continued to hint at this with activity sliding SE from
upstate NY. Otherwise, it will be dry and mostly cloudy with
lows in the middle to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday into Sunday night the area will remain between the slowly
weakening ridge to the south and the northern trough that will
slowly amplify Sunday night. This will push the cold front
farther to the south Sunday, with the boundary likely becoming
nearly stationary late in the day and into Sunday night. Energy
continues to move eastward along the boundary with weak
convergent flow. Frontal forcing will be weak and west to
northwest steering flow will also be weak. However the
convergent flow between the southern ridge the the northern
trough along the frontal boundary will produce lift along with
developing instability Sunday afternoon with additional showers
and isolated thunderstorms. There is the potential for the
front to stall to the north or across the northern portions of
the forecast area late Sunday into Sunday night, with
showers/thunderstorms training along the boundary. While there
is the chance for heavy rainfall, higher rainfall totals will be
more likely with training storms. Used coverage wording to
convey scattered nature of the showers/thunderstorms. And with
the boundary to the north that is where the heavier rainfall is
expected. With cloud cover and the chance of precipitation
Sunday leaned toward the cooler MOS guidance for high
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The potential exists for a 1-2 inch rainfall across the area
late Monday into the first half of Tuesday. Global models are in
relatively good agreement in taking a northern stream upper
trough through the region during this times, while multiple
southern stream disturbances get ejected across the area ahead
of the trough. The latter of which are from a nearly stationary
trough that extends from the Ohio Valley back into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.
At the surface, a cold front nearly stationary across the area
Monday morning lifts a bit north as a frontal wave passes near
or just NW of the area Monday. This should keep the bulk of the
steadier overrunning rainfall north of the region, but still
some scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity possible in
the warm sector. The location of the boundary will be critical
and this will need to be watched closely over the next couple of
days. The front then begins to get forced southward with the
upper trough Monday night into Tuesday morning with the
potential for moderate to localized heavy rainfall. While PW
values will be closing in on 2 inches, this is not a deep
convective event and don`t see rainfall rates getting much
higher than localized inch an hour rates. The concerning factor
is the progress of the front across the area and training of
these showers/isolated thunderstorms. There does seem to be
enough progression at this time to limit rainfall amounts to a
well-needed 1-2 inches. However, the NAM12 is much more
aggressive with 2 to 4 inches, but is clearly showing convective
feedback issues (real or not). Model consensus is more in line
with the lower amounts at this time.
The front works slowly south of the area Tuesday with showers
tapering off from north to south during the afternoon hours.
High pressure then builds in for the end of the week. Another
frontal system map impact the area next weekend with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/night.
Temperatures start off nearly seasonable on Monday with the cloud
cover and shower threat. It will also be humid with dew points in
the 60s. Cooler conditions are on tap Tuesday with easterly flow
behind the cold front and lingering rain. Highs will then warm up
for the end of the week to several degrees above normal with ridging
aloft and a southerly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain along the New England coast tonight and
then slowly shift offshore on Sunday. A cold front approaches from
the north in the afternoon and evening.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Pockets of MVFR are possible late
tonight, but confidence in duration/location not high enough to
include in TAF. There may also be a few showers during the early
morning near KSWF. Showers are also possible late in the afternoon
and evening, mainly from the NYC metro terminals on north and west.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible, but probability is too
low to include in TAF at this time.
SE-S winds continue to diminish tonight with variable at
outlying terminals. Winds become W-WSW in the morning, then
become SSW-S in the late morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will
be 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR ceilings possible early Sunday morning.
Amendments possible for timing of showers Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated thunderstorm possible, but probability too low to
include in TAF at this time.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Night...MVFR possible. Chance of showers, possible
thunderstorms mainly NYC/NJ terminals and NW.
.Monday...MVFR or lower. Showers becoming likely through the day and
night with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower showers likely, mainly in the morning.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A relatively weak pressure gradient is expected to keep winds
and seas below SCA levels tonight through Monday night. A
strengthening easterly flow Tuesday into Wednesday could bring
marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters Tue Night into Wed,
especially for ocean seas around 5 ft. Thereafter, sub-SCA
conditions are expected mid-to-late next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Most of the area is in the midst of a severe drought and
KBDI levels remain indicative of above normal levels of
subterranean dryness. At present KBDI levels, fire spread is
enhanced, even without much wind.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is a chance of rainfall from Sunday afternoon through
Sunday night with 1/10 of an inch to 3/4 of an inch, with most
of the rainfall expected across the lower Hudson Valley into
southwestern Connecticut.
There remains the potential for a 1 to 2" rainfall event with the
bulk of the rainfall coming Monday night into Tuesday morning. WPC
has the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The flash
flood threat looks to be localized at this time.
Thereafter, no hydrologic impacts are expected mid-to-late next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for rip current development through early
Monday. Winds will generally be southerly 5-10 kt with 1 ft
S/SE swells. Latest RCMOS and NWPS Rip probabilities support
the low rip risk.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MET/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...