Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/01/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1020 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The last in a train of surface troughs and boundaries will shift southeast tonight, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible. Building surface high pressure means we will turn the calendar to cool and dry conditions. A weak front will renew chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday, and keep temperatures seasonable over the North Country. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1016 PM EDT Wednesday...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms continue late this evening as a cold front advances from the west. RAP soundings show limited amounts of elevated CAPE persisting for the next couple hours, aided by the cool temperatures aloft. Overall, expect thunder potential to end by midnight. Still expecting a cooler, drier airmass to advect into the North Country behind the cold front with morning lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. See previous discussion below. Previous discussion...There`s currently a surface trough pushing east into St. Lawrence County, producing scattered convection. Earlier, a cell west of Athens produced an impressive hail spike and 70 dBZ up to 12000 ft agl. Since then, that has come down, but conditions are somewhat favorable for strong gusty winds and hail due to steep lapse rates, cool air aloft, and relatively fast flow aloft that could readily mix to the surface. About 750 J/kg of CAPE exists across the St. Lawrence Valley, and then lower dewpoints and some CIN over the Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley should cause the convection to deteriorate. One last boundary will move through after midnight and bring in cool, northwesterly flow. This should bring in mid 40s to mid 50s and dry dewpoints. If you enjoy that nice morning chill, then it`ll feel refreshing for sure. With 925hPa temperatures of only 10 C, then we will probably struggle to reach 70 except the southernmost valleys of the region. This will be about 10 degrees below normal, and we will have steady west to northwest winds as well. Dry, with no rain chances, and then cool overnight as surface high pressure slides east across the area. Low temperatures will fall into the lower 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM EDT Wednesday...Much warmer temperatures are on tap for the North Country on Friday as the the flow aloft shifts to the west/southwest and the surface high shifts eastward toward Cape Cod. It won`t be an oppressive day by any means with temperatures peaking into the mid 70s to lower 80s with the warmest temps expected across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Mostly clear skies will be expected through the day Friday although a few clouds cannot be ruled out as we usher in some moisture. A return of fog seems plausible for the Connecticut River Valley as that region should still be underneath the influence of the surface high while further west may have just enough flow to prevent fog from settling into the typical river valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 321 PM EDT Wednesday...Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday as we continue to see warm air advection across the region. Cloud cover, this time, will be on the increase with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected to move into the region by mid to later afternoon well ahead of an approaching cold front. While we will see some decent instability Saturday afternoon, it appears we should stay on the dry side with the lack of any appreciable surface forcing or upper level dynamics. Rain chances will begin to increase as we head into the evening hours on Saturday as the cold front begins to approach the region. Although decent surface convergence is expected along the frontal boundary, instability will wane into the afternoon and evening hours which will significantly limit thunderstorm activity. Some guidance does show some elevated instability that may lead to some isolated to scattered thunderstorms but these will not be of the strong to severe variety. The cold front will take it`s sweet time moving through the North Country on Sunday as there isn`t a lot of flow aloft to really drive the front through the region. This should allow for renewed rain chances with the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder during the afternoon. Again, these storms should be garden variety and pose little threat other than those with outdoor plans this upcoming weekend. This cold front should clear the region by Monday morning with a cooler air mass expected to continue through at least the first half of next week. As we turn the page into meteorological fall, we should experience some nice fall weather next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR expected through the TAF period. Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible early in the period, through 02z, mainly at KMSS, KPBG, and KBTV. A brief period of drying will follow, but then isolated showers will again be possible 06z-12z Thursday, mainly in northern sections as a weak front moves south out of Canada. MVFR ceilings will be possible as the front passes the northern terminals, especially KSLK and KEFK, but visibility will remain unrestricted. All sites will return to VFR by 15z Thursday. South/southwest winds around 5 kt will persist through about 06z, until the aforementioned front switches them back to west/northwest. Winds will increase after 14z Thursday with gusts of 15-18 kt possible. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Hammond/Haynes SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Hastings/Haynes
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1017 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Have elected to cancel the flood watch across our western areas as the latest 00Z convective allowing model guidance has trended toward quieter conditions from overnight into Thursday morning across that area. However, some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm cell or two may be possible, especially for portions of rural Val Verde county. In addition to the cancellation of the flood watch, made adjustments in the grids for the entire area through tomorrow. Given the latest 00Z convective allowing model guidance, made a slight increase in PoPS across our central and eastern areas tomorrow afternoon while decreasing PoPs along the Rio Grande and across the Winter Garden region. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 This morning`s round of rain led to some additional flooding concerns in portions of the Hill Country/Southern Edwards Plateau. Multiple Riverine Flood Warnings in Val Verde County will likely be allowed to expire this evening as the response in the region is rather fast/flashy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped over mainly central portions of the region this afternoon. PWATS remain very high (12Z DRT sounding measured 2.23") freezing levels are close to 15 kft, and with long, skinny CAPE profiles w/ ~700-1500 J/kg to work with we will see continued high rainfall rates in this activity over the next several days. For today, despite some sfc heating we expect coverage will be somewhat limited except across the Hill Country where ~50% coverage is possible. But spotty 1-3+" rainfall totals are likely through this evening east of US-83. This could lead to the need for additional Flood Advisories if it occurs over sensitive soils where FFG has been suppressed significantly by recent rains, but concerns for additional impacts are otherwise low through this evening. Overnight, additional activity may redevelop over the NW quadrant of our CWA as another vort max rotates around the upper low while it opens into an inverted trough. More showers and storms are expected to push north out of Mexico and into the Big Bend/Trans-Pecos areas, but may also impact our far NW areas. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is in place across Llano/Burnet and NW of Kerrville to Uvalde to Eagle Pass through 12Z Thursday, with a Moderate Risk across much of Val Verde County which is where our primary concern for additional flooding resides late tonight through tomorrow morning. For tomorrow, the ERO cuts back to mainly Marginal with a small area of Slight Risk over western Val Verde County. We will hold the Flood Watch as is through 12Z tomorrow at this time, but an extension for at least Val Verde and potentially Kinney/Edwards counties may be needed. Most of our eastern areas will remain dry overnight and tomorrow morning, but isolated redeveloping showers are possible by midday. A trough axis will dip into N TX late in the day and redeveloping showers and storms are likely just north of our region in the afternoon, with a separate area of sea-breeze convection possible for the Coastal Plains. The 12Z HRRR has a particularly interesting but not yet entirely believable solution with thunderstorms and heavy rain propagating SW and then W along the escarpment through the evening and overnight tomorrow, but best chances for locally heavy rains will probably be for areas near and north of Austin during this time. Will have to see how the CAM suite progresses over the next 24 hours. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 The Labor Day Weekend is shaping up to be a wet one, with an active synoptic pattern anticipated for all of South-Central Texas. Friday will likely be the "driest" day of the long term period, with the lowest rain chances, but a weak disturbance will team up with a remnant frontal boundary over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau to produce some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon. Additional development is possible for the I-35 corridor, Rio Grande Plains, and Coastal Plains, but will keep PoPs at about 20-40% for the time being. Saturday and Sunday are when things get really interesting, and WPC already has a Day 4 and Day 5 Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over much of South-Central Texas. Model forecast soundings indicate a very moist regime Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Long, skinny CAPE generally less than 1500 J/kg, weak steering flow in the mid-levels, freezing levels of ~12-15k ft (super efficient warm-rain processes), and slow Corfidi upshear and downshear vectors around 5-15 kts will result in extreme hourly rainfall rates in the heaviest storms. I would not be surprised to see rates of 2-4" per hour, which, over already saturday soils, especially over Real, Bandera, northern Maverick, eastern Edwards, and portions of Val Verde County could quickly result in flash flooding. The active pattern this weekend will be mainly due in part to a decent mid- level 500mb low/trough axis oriented southwest to northeast over central and northern Texas. This should help to keep light west-southwesterly flow aloft, as well as pretty much uniform flow throughout the profile. Slow storm motions and very high rainfall rates, coupled with PWATs in the 1.8-2.2" range, will result in heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding through the entire weekend. This upper low/trough will remain mostly stationary over north Texas and southern Oklahoma through the beginning to middle of next week, with continued high end chance PoPs for much of the region. With increased cloud cover and higher soil moisture, temperatures should be held mostly in check, with most spots struggling to get out of the 80s and perhaps some highs in the 70s by Sunday and Monday. For now, have trended closer to the NBM for high temperature guidance as confidence in the cooler guidance is not particularly high at the moment. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are currently occurring across the region this afternoon and these will be around for the next few hours before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. Kept VCSH/VCTS at most of the sites as a result over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should primarily prevail into and through the majority of tonight. However, cannot rule out brief reductions in visibility or CIGs and/or erratic/gusty winds near/around convection. Late overnight into early Thursday morning, may see another round of rain/thunderstorms enter into Val Verde County that could impact KDRT. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings develop at the San Antonio TAF sites (KSAT, KSSF) along with at KDRT towards sunrise and through mid-morning. VFR conditions return at those locations into Thursday afternoon with possible lingering showers near KDRT. Thursday afternoon could see the return of rain showers and storms with daytime heating, especially around KAUS where we elected to add VCTS after 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 94 74 91 / 40 40 40 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 93 73 91 / 40 40 40 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 94 73 92 / 20 40 30 40 Burnet Muni Airport 72 90 72 88 / 40 50 50 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 89 74 90 / 30 30 40 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 92 72 88 / 40 50 50 60 Hondo Muni Airport 74 92 74 92 / 30 20 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 93 73 91 / 30 40 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 95 73 92 / 20 40 30 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 93 75 91 / 20 30 40 40 Stinson Muni Airport 75 94 75 93 / 20 30 30 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Morris Aviation...Brady
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
234 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Convection has initiated this afternoon in northeast Colorado along outflow from storms earlier in the day. This activity is expected to continue to move southeast and increase in coverage. Additional activity will develop across southwest Nebraska by early this evening, potentially merging with the earlier storms into a cluster that will move across northwest Kansas tonight. Latest HRRR seems to have captured the earlier development best, while the NAMnest continues to suggest more robust development associated with the main upper shortwave this evening. Either way, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with high based storms and DCAPE values around 1500 j/kg persisting well into the evening. May also see some blowing dust with the background drought conditions. Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will also aid in storm organization and would not totally rule out some isolated hail up to quarter size. The cluster of storms may persist into the overnight hours as it slowly moves southeast, though intensity will diminish by then with loss of surface heating. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. Northwest flow aloft continues on Thursday on the eastern side of the large ridge centered over the western CONUS. Some concern that a surface boundary may be lingering over southeast portion of the forecast area Thursday afternoon and act as a focus for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Presently, only the 18z NAMnest is showing initiation in that area, so confidence is low, but given MLCAPE around 1200 j/kg, DCAPE around 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear around 25 kts, if storms do manage to develop would again expect at least some risk for strong wind gusts. Further west in northeast Colorado during the afternoon, relative humidity will drop to near 15%, but wind speeds will be light. So, elevated fire weather conditions can be expected basically west of Highway 27 for a few hours Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. On Friday, a cold front associated with a disturbance moving across the northern plains will move through the forecast area. Despite the lack of support aloft, the western ridge is actually building over the area, the front should be enough for widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Confidence remains rather low in convective development, but once again wind would be the main hazard with a deeply mixed boundary layer should any storms develop. The front continues south Friday evening, which should end the chance for precipitation. Elevate fire weather conditions will develop once again west of Highway 25 as relative humidity drops into the teens, but with light winds not expecting critical conditions. Highs will be in the upper 90s and lows will be in the upper 50s. On Saturday, upper ridge begins to build across the Rockies. At the surface, will see post frontal east to southeast winds. The low level upslope will dampen the potential for warmer temperatures under the ridge, with highs expected around 90. Do not see any thunderstorm chances under the strengthening ridge. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1243 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 For the long term period, forecast currently calls for dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures. May have a chance for a few storms around the beginning of the week. Throughout the long term period, the 500mb pattern remains roughly the same with a ridge across the Western CONUS with it amplifying out into the North-Central Plains. Meanwhile, a cut off low is forecasted to get stranded in the Southern CONUS around Texas before moving slowly off to the northeast around the mid part of the week. Ensembles show this general pattern with some variance in how much either feature amplifies and how they interact with each other later in the period. For the Tri-state area, this will leave us in a weak north-northwest flow pattern aloft which could allow for a few disturbances to move through the area. Near the surface, high pressure from a system earlier in the weekend is forecasted to push off to the east with a broad area of lower pressure setting up during the week. Moisture is forecasted to be lacking for most of the area, though there could be a surge of moisture from the south to begin the week. For Sunday, ensemble 850mb temps made me question whether temperatures could climb into the 90`s. But with the surface high nearby, elected to keep temperatures near 90 which lines up with 850mb temps in the mid to upper 20`s. Next week has more uncertainty with the potential paths of the features at 500mb and with a potential surge of moisture from the south. Around Monday or Tuesday, guidance suggests that moisture may advect in from the south across eastern portions of the area. This could keep temperatures cooler if cloud cover develops with temperatures remaining near 90. Otherwise, mid to upper 90`s become more likely. The surge of moisture could also allow for storm development if a disturbance moves through the area. Currently do not have any forecasted due to current guidance showing more northerly flow aloft and the ridge axis extending to the western portion of the area. However, any flattening or shift west with the ridge could allow a disturbance through the area and trigger storms if the moisture advects into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Main aviation concern for both KGLD and KMCK will be chance for thunderstorms early this evening. A cluster of storms is forecast to move through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours in response to an upper level disturbance. There are some differences in timing among the models which leads to some uncertainty, but most likely time seems to be in the early evening at both sites. Some models suggesting it may be slightly later in the evening. Either way, expect brief gusty surface winds, possibly 50 kts or greater, along with areas of blowing dust as the storms move through. Otherwise, VFR anticipated through the afternoon, and then during the overnight and Thursday morning hours. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Scattered thunderstorms are underway this afternoon across the Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska. A second area of storms should develop across swrn Nebraska this evening and drop south into KS by midnight. The concern with the storms is gusty winds forming from CB development at the top of a mixed layer near or above 700mb. Winds aloft at h500-300mb are weak, generally less than 30 kts. Thus far, storm motion has been 10 to 15 kts and precipitable water is predicted to rise to near 1.5 inches. This would support locally heavy rainfall and the CAMs suggested local amounts around 1 inch. The POP forecast this evening leans on the short term model blend which is close to the RAP, HRRR and NAMnest models. Attention turns to the temperature forecast Thursday and the models and guidance show another very warm day with highs in the 90s. Temperatures at h700mb actually rise a degree or so and south and southwest winds will support deep mixing. The temperature forecast Thursday leans on the short term model blend plus bias correction plus 1 degree for highs in the mid and upper 90s. This forecast is very close to the bias corrected guidance blend which is warmer than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 990mb sfc low pressure circulating through nrn Manitoba will send a Pacific cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday. This will be a dry frontal passage across all of the region except parts of ncntl Nebraska. No other rain is predicted for Friday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge of high pressure across UT and the Great Basin this afternoon will remain nearly stationary for the next 7 days. The orientation of ridge will be affected by storms systems passing through the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains such that Nebraska will experience north winds and subsidence aloft. No substantial increase in moisture aloft or at the surface is expected- the subtropical moisture plume will remain south and east of Nebraska and the GFS shows precipitable water an inch or less Thursday through Wednesday. The cold front moving through wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday will be reinforced by Canadian high pressure moving into the upper Midwest Saturday. The cold front will settle across the Midsouth Sunday and this should prevent return moisture across the central Plains. The temperature forecast is on the warm side of the guidance envelop- warmer than the guidance blend and the 50th percentile of the NBM. There is a wide spread in the h700mb temperatures in the GFS in the ECM...the ECM around 10C but the GFS warms to 13C at that level. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Winds will become light out of the southwest overnight, shifting to the south tomorrow morning. There is some potential for patchy fog in the early morning hours in the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the LBF TAF. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM....CDC AVIATION...Meltzer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 727 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 After a brief lull in convection, storms as starting to fire back up again west of the east coast metro areas as a weak mid level disturbance moves across South Florida. Latest HRRR run shows activity dissipating later this evening with the loss of daytime heating, however some spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along the coasts late tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 As the day has been heating up, the conditions have been primed for an afternoon of convection. The sea breeze helped facilitate showers over the metro area early this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be in the interior and west coast. The greatest, and most robust, storm coverage will be to the west and near Lake Okeechobee. While the 12Z sounding confirmed we will have sufficient moisture (PWAT 2.05") for heavy rainfall and considerable MUCAPE, the lapse rates may not be supportive for severe wind gusts. However, outflow boundaries and any passing storm may bring brief gusty winds (~25KT). Localized flooding is being monitored with these storms, especially with the prime PWATs and the slow movement. Later into the evening and overnight, the showers should be moving over the waters later tonight. Similar to today, the easterly flow will be prime behind tomorrow`s synoptic pattern. With weak flow, the sea breeze will be the main driver behind any shower activity. Tropical moisture will be in place, keeping PWATs around 2.0 - 2.2" and support numerous showers and storms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin the day in the east and steer to the interior moving into mid-afternoon. Tomorrow`s primary hazards will be localized flooding, lightning, and brief strong wind gusts. The hot and humid conditions will continue through the latter half of the week. With highs in the low to mid 90s, accompanied by humid conditions, the heat indices may exceed 100 region wide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 The frontal boundary over Northern Florida will continue to become diffuse on Friday as a ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic begins to build back into the region. With a rather weak east to southeasterly wind flow in place, tropical moisture will continue to pump into the area as guidance is indicating PWAT values remaining at or slightly above 2 inches across most of the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again develop along the sea breezes during the late morning and early afternoon hours. These storms will slowly push towards the interior and west coast as the afternoon progresses. There will be just enough instability in the area due to daytime heating to support some strong thunderstorm development mainly over the interior sections during the afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms could contain heavy downpours and gusty winds. With the tropical moisture continuing to pump into the region, heavy downpours could continue to result in localized flooding especially in areas that have seen heavy rainfall in recent days. Moving into the upcoming weekend, the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and build over the region. This will result in an increase in easterly wind flow and a relatively drier air mass will move into the area. The latest guidances shows PWAT values ranging between 1.6 and 1.8 inches across most of the area on Saturday and Sunday. With the increased easterly wind flow, this should result in pushing the shower and thunderstorm activity to the interior and west coast each afternoon and evening. While the threat for strong thunderstorm development will be rather limited during this time frame, one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out over the interior during the afternoon. High temperatures over the weekend will remain on the warm side as they will rise into the lower 90s across most of the area. Early next week, the latest ensemble guidance is suggesting a mid level trough digging down into the eastern portion of the country. Uncertainty remains high during this part of the forecast period as there remains some model differences as to how far south this trough actually makes it. The latest GFS shows the trough digging further south while the ECMWF has a stronger area of high pressure over the region keeping the trough farther to the north. In any event, this should create some erosion of the high pressure over the region which will weaken the easterly wind flow during this time frame. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures will remain in the lower 90s across most of the region through early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Mainly VFR tonight however some spotty showers and thunderstorms may result in some brief flight restrictions. Winds will go light and variable overnight and then become E/SE around 10 kts on Thursday with the exception of APF where the Gulf breeze will result in a W/SW flow during the afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected during the day on Thursday which could result in more brief flight restrictions in the form of lower ceilings and visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Weak easterly flow will prevail across the local waters, but with times of light and variable winds. By Friday, modest easterly flow should develop as ridging expands over the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the next several days, which may result in locally hazardous conditions. Seas will generally remain below 2 feet in height with mostly benign boating conditions should prevail except near showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 The rip current risk for the east coast remains limited through the next several days. Approaching the weekend, an elevated risk for rip currents is possible as onshore flow increases and more established. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 92 79 91 / 20 60 30 50 West Kendall 75 93 75 91 / 20 60 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 93 78 92 / 20 60 30 50 Homestead 76 91 77 90 / 20 50 30 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 80 90 / 20 50 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 90 / 20 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 77 92 78 91 / 20 60 30 50 West Palm Beach 77 92 77 90 / 20 50 30 50 Boca Raton 77 93 79 92 / 20 50 30 50 Naples 77 91 77 91 / 30 60 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening) Issued at 354 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2022 Plenty of sunshine and dry conditions have resulted in a pleasant day across Upper Michigan. Daytime highs have been trending in the 70s with even some low 80s across the far south which supports the latest warmer RAP analysis trend. Meanwhile, sufficient mixing behind a cold front is keeping the northwest winds breezy, especially across the eastern two-thirds of the UP where the gradient is yet to weaken. Wind gusts up to 25 mph will persist well into the evening until this morning`s shortwave pushes farther into Quebec. Latest Vis Sat shows the wave centered over the southern Ontario/Quebec border. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2022 Expect a cool night tonight, particularly in the interior east as mostly clear skies dominate early; expect temps to dip down to around 50 in the interior areas, with the interior east getting as low as the mid 40s. A weak shortwave moving across the Upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday may bring a few sprinkles across the Keweenaw, north central, and east, and maybe a light rain shower or two. However, with a dry layer expected right above the sfc, not much if any rainfall, is expected to reach the sfc. CAMs guidance shows sprinkles moving over the Keweenaw and north central after midnight tonight, whereas the east may begin to see sprinkles late tonight/early Thursday morning; spotty sprinkles may continue in the east until around sunset. Otherwise, with high pressure and WAA moving over the area, expect a pretty warm day Thursday, especially in the west, where highs are projected to hit the mid to upper 80s; a few spots could even hit 90. Expect the warming trend to continue until a low pressure system drags a cold front across the area Friday through Friday night... Expect a very warm day Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, as ensemble guidance shows temps around the 90th percentile. Temps across the central and west are projected to be in the mid 80s to low 90s, whereas the east is expected to only get up to the low 80s. While some CAMs guidance shows showers starting off in the south central Friday, other CAMs and non-CAMs show shower and thunderstorm activity starting off in the western UP late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening. As the front moves from west to east through Friday night, expect rain chances to increase as forcing along the front increases. With MUCAPEs between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km wind shear around 25 to 30 knots, it isn`t out of the realm of possibility that we could see a strong thunderstorm or two, particularly along the frontal boundary. If any severe wx were to occur Friday night, it would be hail and wind related. Expect the showers and thunderstorms to get out of the area by Saturday morning as the cold front leaves Upper MI. For the latter half of the extended forecast, expect another warming trend after Saturday night behind the cold front (Saturday night could be pretty chilly, particularly in the interior west, as lows could drop down to around 40). We should also see dry conditions as well due to a high pressure moving on top of us. With ensemble guidance showing temps slowly approaching the 90th percentile next week, we could see a warm couple of days after Labor Day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 731 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2022 VFR will prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period as dry air lingers at the low-levels. A weak disturbance could bring a few -shra or sct sprinkles to the CMX vcnty overnight. Otherwise, sct- bkn clouds in the 5000-7000ft range will overspread CMX/SAW. Winds at all terminals will quickly diminish to aob 5kt in the next couple of hrs. Expect sw winds of 10-15kt on Thu, but CMX will see westerly wind gusts up to around 25kt. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 407 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2022 NWrly winds of 20 to 30 knots over the eastern lake weaken to 20 knots or less as ridging builds back in tonight. Expect the light winds to continue across Lake Superior until around Friday, when a few S to SWrly gusts of 20 to 25 knots could be seen across the lake ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the cold front, expect the wind to become Nrly with gusts around 20 to 25 knots late Friday night through Saturday morning. Winds become generally 20 knots or less again Saturday afternoon. Some thunderstorms are possible across Lake Superior Friday afternoon and Friday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005- 006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
153 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022 ...Late Season Heat Wave through Labor Day Weekend... .DISCUSSION...A weak short wave will move through far northwest Montana late this evening and overnight and produce a few showers with little precipitation. Some tightening pressure gradients behind this wave will bring a slight increase in westerly winds Thursday afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph are expected. Friday will be hot and dry under a strong ridge of high pressure. Saturday will be hot however a dry front will move through and bring increasing winds across western and southwest Montana. Winds will be strong enough combined with very low RHs to elevate fire weather concerns across southwest Montana. Sunday through Tuesday we return to a strong ridge and hot and dry conditions. Temps will be 15-20 degrees above normal Thursday through next Tuesday, low 90s to near 100 degrees. This period of late August and early September will be the hottest and longest heat wave on record at Missoula. The closest period with such hot temperatures this time of the year was in 1967. && .AVIATION...Increased haze and smoke is being forecast by the HRRR smoke model the next 24 hours into Thursday afternoon. KSMN will be most impacted from smoke. A weak weather system will move across northwest Montana after midnight and produce a few light showers, one of which may impact KGPI. There will be an increase in winds behind this system Thursday afternoon at all terminals. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region. && $$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 We will have some chances for rain at times the next couple of days, but the period from Saturday through the mid part of next week looks mainly dry. High temperatures should continue to be mostly above normal, with Saturday and Sunday probably close to normal. Short term concern is mostly the potential for severe storms for the next 5-6 hours. Large scale pattern in the mid levels shows a ridge centered back over NV and UT which extends up into Alberta and Saskatchewan. A mid level shortwave trough will continue to push southeast through the region the next 24 hours or so, providing at least some large scale lift. Although the mid level ridge to our west will be trying to build east over the weekend with increasing mid level heights, cooler air should filter in from the north behind a front. There is a fair amount of model spread with the pattern for next week. Temperatures had warmed into the 90s at most spots in eastern NE as of 3 pm, with 80s in western IA. Storms which have been across central NE continue to develop eastward and we should see an increase in coverage over northeast NE the next few hours. 100 mb MLCAPE values forecast by the SPC HRRR should increase to around 2500 J/kg or so by 6 pm. Effective bulk shear is limited, forecast to be mostly under 25 knots. That may limit organization, but with decent temperature/dewpoint spreads in the low levels, gusty winds seem probable. Have seen a gust as high as 48 knots at KONL. The temperature there also dropped about 20 degree F with the storm. Hail could also occur with the strongest cores. Severe weather potential should drop off by 9 pm or so, but we could see a few showers and storms at times overnight. There is also some signal that these could linger Thursday, especially in the morning. Added some low POPs earlier in this shift for that, but left the afternoon dry for now. Then the next chance for organized precipitation will arrive for Friday afternoon and evening as a front pushes through the area. A few strong storms seem possible, but not expecting a high severe threat. Again, then from Saturday into next week it looks dry or mainly dry. Temperatures should probably peak in the 90s tomorrow in eastern NE with upper 80s and lower 90s in western IA. Highs Friday should reach the upper 80s to mid 90s for all of the area. Highs are expected to be in the 80s over the weekend, then mid 80s to lower 90s for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible over the region through 18Z Thursday. Because the potential for thunderstorms is quite low (< 10%), no mention of TSRA was included in the KLNK, KOMA or KOFK TAFs. Winds should be light tonight, with more persistent southerly winds (10 to 15 kt) anticipated between 16Z Thursday and 00Z Friday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Albright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
147 PM PDT Wed Aug 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry conditions are expected through next Tuesday with temperatures peaking over the Labor Day weekend. Expect record, or near record temperatures, with typical afternoon breezes into early next week. There will be a high risk of heat health impacts for much of the population through the weekend with this prolonged heat wave. && .SHORT TERM...through Thursday night... We`re going to remain under high pressure today and Thursday, which will keep conditions dry and hot. These unseasonable high/low temperatures are roughly 10 degrees above normal for end of August/early September. High temperatures today and Thursday across western NV valleys will either come close to, or exceed the 100 degree mark, while Sierra communities will be slightly cooler in the upper 80`s. Typical westerly zephyr winds with gusts of 25 mph will set up each afternoon. You may also see some haze today through Thursday from the Red wildfire near Yosemite. The westerly zephyr breeze today will help disperse a majority of the smoke and haze. The latest HRRR smoke simulations bring another influx of smoke into the eastern Sierra south of Bridgeport this evening into Thursday morning, but this will be highly dependent on fire activity and possible suppression efforts. Keep up with the latest air quality conditions at -Justin .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday... The most likely placement of an unusually strong late summer ridge over the Great Basin will keep temperatures in record high territory (100+ degrees for most lower elevations/90+ degrees for Sierra valleys) from Friday through next Tuesday. As a result, we`ll have a Heat Advisory in effect for all five days. To put this early September heat wave into historic context, we`re including some "fun facts" for Reno`s current September records in a Climate segment below. Despite the impressive daytime heating, the orientation of the generally east-west ridge axis across southern portions of CA-NV will also keep mid-level capping in place, preventing the development of thunderstorms. Scattered flat afternoon cumulus are anticipated each day mainly near and south of US-50, but farther north there aren`t likely to be many breaks to the clear sky. The only slight relief other than the longer nights compared to mid- summer may be from typical thermally-driven afternoon breezes each day with gusts 20-25 mph, except on Friday and next Tuesday- Wednesday where some gusts could be near or a bit above 30 mph. By the middle of next week, the ridge is projected to become flatter in response to a longwave trough moving into the northwest US. This should allow temperatures to ease back into the mid-upper 90s for lower elevations and upper 80s for Sierra valleys by next Wednesday--but still well above average for early September. MJD && .AVIATION... Plan on VFR conditions and typical afternoon/evening breezes with gusts in the 15-20 kt range each day, except for some stronger gusts near 25 kt possible Friday afternoon at the main terminals. Hot conditions with forecast highs near or over 100 degrees for the lower valleys Friday-next Tuesday may produce density altitude concerns for the western NV terminals. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... * HEAT: A prolonged heat wave with record temperature potential will be in place through the holiday weekend. This extended period of hot and dry conditions may be a precursor to increased fire weather risk with ongoing dry conditions and poor RH recoveries. * DRY/BREEZY WEEKEND: In addition to the heat, plan on dry conditions with afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 mph for most areas. However, areas across NE California including portions of Plumas and Lassen counties could see enhanced gusts near 30 mph through the weekend with Friday looking to be the breeziest day. This may result in isolated areas of enhanced fire weather risk in these parts. Mid-slope thermal belts and higher elevations may also experience brief periods of critical conditions Friday night into early Saturday, due to poor RH recoveries and continued breezy conditions as a weak low pressure system drifts across Northern CA. Fuentes && .CLIMATE... Several record highs are projected to be set across our region during the first week of September. Here are some "fun facts" for 100+ degree days in September from Reno`s official climate records... * Prior to 2022, only 8 days in September have ever reached or exceeded 100 degrees, with 3 of those days occurring in 2017, 2 days each in 1988 and 2020, and 1 day in 1950. * The warmest September temperature of 102 degrees occurred in 2020 on the 4th. * The latest calendar year occurrence of 100+ degrees occurred in 2020 on the 5th. MJD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for NVZ001- 003>005. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ070- 071. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...