Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
There is still a chance for a shower or thunderstorm across the
southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon through early this
evening. Chances have been decreasing through the day but a few
showers or storms cannot be entirely ruled out. High temperatures
today and tomorrow will mainly be in the mid 80s to low 90s for
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
The latest H500 RAP analysis early this afternoon depicts a low
pressure system centered over southeastern NM and southwestern TX
along with high pressure near the Four Corners region. These two
features are keeping weak easterly flow across the forecast area
today. Surface winds out of the northeast to east are bringing in
high surface dew points, with some areas in the mid to upper 60s,
which is higher than most CAMs are depicting. Temperatures have
struggled to warm up above the low to mid 80s for most areas,
mainly due to high clouds and the higher moisture content at the
surface.
Cumulus clouds continue to develop across portions of the central
and northern Panhandles this afternoon. Some model guidance
continues to suggest a few showers or storms may form a bit later
today, mainly over the southern Texas Panhandle. There is a lot
working against any potential precipitation forming unfortunately.
Synoptically, there is not much support for any storms, with no
noticeable disturbances and very weak flow aloft. Convective
temperatures (which are in the upper 80s to low 90s) will likely
not be met for a majority of the area. Subtle areas of surface
convergence, easterly upslope flow, and increased surface moisture
may just be enough to form a few storms today. So have opted to
keep low mentions of PoPs with this forecast cycle.
Looking towards tomorrow, the H500 low pressure system continues
its trek southwestward into northern Mexico. Weak and sporadic
flow throughout the column will prevail across the CWA.
Temperatures will be very comparable to today, if not a degree or
two warmer with decreased surface moisture and less cloud cover.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
The center of an upper level high will remain parked over the
Nevada/Utah state line give or take a couple of hundred miles
Thursday through Monday.
Chances of rain do not looks very promising during this period as we
will tend to be under a north to northeast flow aloft. The best
chance of some rain looks to be Friday night into Saturday. An
upper level short wave trough will move south across the central and
southern Plains and this may help to bring a cold front through the
area. If this happens, then we may see some showers and
thunderstorms. Again, do not believe that there will be much
support aloft for organized and widespread convection, but some
scattered activity would be possible.
High temperatures will remain in the 80`s to the lower 90`s which is
just about normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
VFR conditions expected throughout the majority of the 00Z TAF
period for all sites. From around 10-12Z Wednesday morning, the
only brief exception would be at KAMA. Low clouds will try and
move in from the south, and may produce brief MVFR cigs around
sunrise. Confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time,
but will continue to watch observational trends. Overall, just sct
to bkn high clouds expected. Winds will be out of the southeast
at 5-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts at times.
Meccariello
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 65 85 62 86 / 10 10 10 10
Beaver OK 65 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 62 88 60 90 / 10 0 10 0
Borger TX 68 91 65 91 / 10 0 0 10
Boys Ranch TX 66 87 62 88 / 10 0 0 0
Canyon TX 65 84 61 85 / 10 10 10 10
Clarendon TX 68 86 65 85 / 10 10 10 20
Dalhart TX 62 87 59 89 / 10 0 10 0
Guymon OK 64 91 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 65 85 61 86 / 10 10 10 10
Lipscomb TX 65 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 10
Pampa TX 66 88 63 87 / 10 0 0 10
Shamrock TX 68 89 65 87 / 10 10 10 10
Wellington TX 70 89 67 87 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1038 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into early
Wednesday allowing drier air into the area through Thursday.
Moisture and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
will return for Friday into the weekend, mainly across the
southern Midlands and CSRA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
At 02z, cold front remains well northwest of the area...now
extending from the Mid Atlantic southwest across southeast
Tennessee. Convection across the area has diminished
significantly with just some light showers mainly from near CAE
to the Pee Dee along pre-frontal trough axis. Expect showers to
dissipate over the next couple of hours. The cold front will
move through the region toward morning...around 09z in the
central SC region. Winds should shift to north around daybreak
with dew points falling in the morning. Adjusted short term
temps northern Midlands where it rained, otherwise temps on
track with lows in the low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak cold front currently pushing over the Appalachian
Mountains will make it here by early Wednesday. It is expected
to slowly push through the area and usher in lower PW values to
the region by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additionally,
while surface flow initially looks to be northwesterly, it
should quickly shift out of the north and northeast on Wednesday
afternoon. I think this will generally favor fair weather
across the region, with our far southeastern counties seeing
some isolated shower activity. The rest of us will likely just
see partly cloudy skies and highs in the 88- 91F range. Thursday
looks similar, with PW values below normal for this time of
year around 1.0". This will lead to another dry day across most
of the region, with some guidance forecasting light showers
possible across our far southern counties. Otherwise, expect
partly cloudy skies, northeasterly surface winds, and highs in
the upper 80s. Lows both nights will be in the upper 60s and low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence in the forecast is high through the first half of the
long term, with it decreasing a bit as we get into early next week.
Cold front that passed to our south on Wednesday and Thursday will
be nearly diffuse and basically just a moisture gradient. This
moisture gradient will begin to slowly work northwestward again on
Friday as a strong surface high shifts over New England and then
into the Atlantic over the weekend. Atop this will be a building mid-
level ridge that should extend from the western Atlantic through the
Carolinas and southeastern US. This pattern very much favors
seasonal weather, as ensemble and operational guidance only
indicates slightly above normal 500 hPa heights building.
Additionally, consensus is that waves of 1.75"-2.0" PWs will work
their way through associated with inverted surface troughs on the
southwestern side of the Atlantic high pressure system. Slight
difference exists on how many of these we see, but generally highs
precip chances look to be Friday in the south and east and Saturday
across the entire FA. Either way, though, typical summer time
weather can be expected, with partly sunny skies, showers/storms,
and highs in the upper 80s with lows in the low 70s through Sunday.
Pattern begins to get a bit more complicated early next week.
Guidance is generally in good agreement that a deep longwave trough
will begin to dig into the eastern US starting on Sunday night, but
the amplitude and location of this are uncertain. The fact that
ensembles and operational models are in agreement on a deep trough
early-mid next week is encouraging, but sensible weather is highly
dependent on which solution is right. ECM/CAN models dig the trough
into the OH Valley on Mon/Tuesday, bringing a slower and more
organized low towards the area. On the flip side, the GFS is faster
and less deep over the OH valley, which would lead to lesser impacts
locally. The 12z GFS did trend a bit more towards the others but is
still a faster solution. These details should get ironed out
over the coming days, and will tell us what to expect in terms
of temps and precip chances early next week. For now, tried to
maintain a similar forecast to the previous one, and kept Chance
PoPs (30-40%) in there early next week. Highs will likely be in
the upper 80s, with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The convective activity along a prefrontal trough has
dissipated. The main front is still farther to our north, and is
not expected to push through the entire forecast area until
tomorrow morning. Light winds, and some clearing of cloud
cover, with low dewpoint depressions has led to some thoughts
about patchy fog/stratus forming tonight before the drier air
can filter in. Guidance mixed. Latest HRRR and SREF indicating
some potential.
VFR expected Wednesday as the front sets up to our south and
drier air continues to filter into our forecast area.
EXTENDED AVIATION...No significant impacts expected Wed/Thu with
drier air over the FA. Moisture return will provide chance of mainly
afternoon thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus
Friday through Sunday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
702 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Key Messages:
- Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the Brush Country
tonight
- Isolated flash flooding is possible
A look at water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a stout upper
level low churning along the TX/NM line. This feature will be
responsible for our active period in the short term. Closer to
home, showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing for much of the
day. We have seen some locally heavy rainfall rates at times with
instantaneous rates nearing 4"/hr. This is all being driven by the
upper low, deep tropical moisture and a low level convergence
axis draped across much of the state. We should start to see
activity begin to wane across our eastern areas as we lose daytime
heating. As the upper low begins to drift south-southwest into
Northern Mexico, several band of vorticity look to peel across the
Brush Country. This will help keep convection ongoing through
much of the evening. While much of the atmosphere will be
overworked from earlier storms, recent RAP guidance hints at a
swath of instability setting up along the Rio Grande with CAPE
values hovering around 2000 J/kg. The placement of the heaviest
rainfall tonight will be highly dependent on where the moisture
convergence line realigns. WPC currently has portions of Webb and
La Salle counties in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the
remainder of the day. We should see a lull in activity across much
of the region late tonight but it`s possible we see some
lingering activity right along the Rio Grande due to the proximity
of the upper low.
As the upper low continues it`s westward push, we will be left
with a relative weakness aloft. This will allow for some enhanced
development along the sea breeze and any potential outflow
boundaries throughout the day. Coverage is not expected to be as
widespread as today due to PWATs lowering slightly.
Similar to today, highs tomorrow will be kept in check thanks to
increased cloud coverage across the region. Highs will range from
the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat indices topping out around 103.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Key messages:
- Chance of showers/thunderstorms Thursday through Labor Day
- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times
- Increased rip current risk potential/possible coastal flooding
this weekend through Labor Day
The long term is expected to remain active with chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day Thursday through Labor Day. As an upper
level ridge builds across the Western US, a broad trough will
gradually dig southward from the Great Lakes into North Texas
ejecting a cutoff low across the Texas Panhandle this weekend. With
a series of shortwaves Thursday and Friday along with PWATs ranging
from 1.8-1.95", isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across South Texas. As the cutoff low ejects into North
Texas this weekend, energy wrapping around the upper level low and
PWATs between 1.9-2.4" will result in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms Saturday through Labor Day. With PWATs near the
99th percentile compared to climatology and sufficient lifting,
efficient rainfall rates will be possible this weekend within the
strongest thunderstorms. Therefore, WPC currently has South Texas
under a slight chance (at least a 15% chance exceeding flash flood
within a 25 mile point) of exceeding flash flood guidance Saturday
morning through early Sunday morning.
With a prolonged easterly flow and potential increase of swell
periods to 8 seconds this weekend, an increased risk of rip currents
will be possible along with Coastal Flooding Saturday through Labor
Day.
With the increase in shower activity and associated cloud cover, max
temperatures are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s
Saturday through early next week, with heat index values expected to
remain below 100 degrees, even for the Brush Country! Low
temperatures are expected to remain constant with temperatures
ranging from lower 70s to lower 80s through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Showers and thunderstorms continue from LRD-COT. The atmosphere is
starting to get overworked near LRD, but will continue VCTS
through at least 09Z as additional activity in Mexico may drift
into the area. For COT, will continue through at least 03Z-04Z
before things begin to stable out. Mostly VFR, but brief periods
of MVFR will be possible between 10Z-16Z, and within any heavy
showers/storms. Will expect redevelopment of showers around
09Z-10Z over the gulf waters streaming inland along the coast,
with a transition to VCTS generally after 16Z-18Z. Generally east
wind 5-10KT is expected through the period, although variable
gusty winds will be possible within any storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
A weak to occasionally moderate easterly flow will continue as we
head into the middle of the work week. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the waters late tonight and
gradually move towards the coast through the morning and early
afternoon hours. Reduced visibilities and gusty winds are possible
with any storms that move through. Weak to moderate easterly
flow is expected Thursday through Labor Day across the local
waters. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be also be possible
Thursday through Labor Day with the possibility of heavy rain,
frequent lightning and gusty winds within the strongest
thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 78 90 77 92 / 30 40 20 40
Victoria 76 90 75 93 / 30 40 20 60
Laredo 78 93 77 95 / 60 30 30 40
Alice 76 92 75 94 / 30 40 20 50
Rockport 81 88 80 92 / 30 40 20 50
Cotulla 77 91 78 96 / 50 40 30 40
Kingsville 77 91 77 93 / 30 40 20 50
Navy Corpus 82 88 82 90 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...CB/85
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
The afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a mid/upper
tropospheric high-over-low pattern across the central/southern High
Plains. The upper low across West Texas into adjacent southeastern
New Mexico will remain trapped down across that portion of the
CONUS, and even continue to push southwest as it slowly shears out
through mid-week. The sprawling upper high will continue its
influence across much of the West through the week as small
shortwave troughs round the ridge and move south-southeast across
the central CONUS. The first of these waves will move into the
central High Plains from the northwest late Wednesday, and will
foster the development of at least a loosely organized MCS from
western Nebraska into northwestern Kansas. Some of the CAMs show
modeled MCS making it as far as our west-central Kansas counties,
and there is enough signal to have some 15-20 POPs across portions
of Hamilton-Kearny-Scott counties late Wednesday evening. Otherwise,
the Short Term forecast period through early Thursday morning will
remain quite tranquil with light winds and seasonal temperatures for
the end of August going into the first of September.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
As a heat wave continues across the West through much of the Long
Term period, the western Kansas region will remain in a northerly or
northeasterly flow pattern aloft, resulting in slightly above normal
temperatures and mainly dry weather. The exception to this may be
with the next front coming down late Friday/Friday Night. The latest
official forecast will continue to carry 20 to 25 POPs for the
Friday Night period for much of the forecast area. The latest round
of global model solutions suggest that the ridge-riding shortwave
trough over the weekend will evolve into another high-over-low
disturbance across Texas, giving that region another round of rain
while western Kansas remains high and dry. It does not appear there
will be much of a change in the longwave regime through 6-7
September or so.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
A few widely scattered rain showers will be possible for the next
couple of around the Liberal area. Cloud bases early this evening
will range from 4000 to 8000ft AGL based on the latest surface
observations and BUFR soundings. For the rest of the night and
during the day on Wednesday any clouds that do develop will be at
or above 120000ft AGL. Easterly winds this Tuesday evening at less
than 10 knots will become south southeast between 06z and 12z
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 93 62 94 / 0 0 10 0
GCK 63 92 61 92 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 64 91 62 92 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 64 91 62 93 / 20 0 10 0
HYS 62 94 63 93 / 0 0 10 0
P28 64 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
857 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Made some adjustments to the PoP grids to account for current trends.
Light to moderate rain now continues in portions of the Hill Country
and should continue for a bit longer before slowly waning. Expect
activity to pick up once again out west per latest runs of the HRRR.
Some locally heavy rainfall will likely continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
High PW and freezing levels, slow steering flow, and an upper level
low to our NW are contributing to locally heavy rainfall. Areas of
flash flooding in the Rio Grande Plains and Western Hill Country
continue to subside this afternoon. Maximum rainfall rates of nearly
4.5"/hr occurred with some of this activity early this morning.
Meanwhile, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and
east of the escarpment are leading to nuisance type, advisory level
flooding as of 18Z. Current thinking is that the 15/16Z HRRR is on
the right track with diminishing activity over these western and
eastern areas while storms fill in over central portions of the
region before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. WPC ERO update this morning expanded the Slight Risk for
excessive rain across most of our region except Nrn Llano/Burnet and
Karnes/DeWitt/Srn Atascosa Counties through 12Z tomorrow morning.
Additional FFW/FLS products may be needed through this evening.
Overnight, moisture transport will increase into the Rio Grande
Plains as a bit of a nocturnal LLJ develops. Moisture transport will
increase and help to reinvigorate the worked over atmosphere in that
region, and a tongue of enhanced mid level vorticity rotating around
the upper low should lead to additional shower and storm development
for the Rio Grande Plains mainly after 2am. It should be relatively
progressive from SE to NW, but isolated 2-3" additional rain totals
could lead to additional minor flooding in the morning especially in
areas that received a lot of rain today.
With moisture remaining high, isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible across the entire region on Wednesday,
particularly in the afternoon, but coverage is currently only
expected to be on the order of 30-40% for most areas. Still cannot
rule out some localized quick 2+" totals in the area throughout this
time. Overnight, the best rain chances will likely be over the Hill
Country. Near-average overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s and
slightly below average highs in the 80s to low 90s are forecast
through the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Several rounds of much-needed rain appear increasingly likely late
this week and heading into Labor Day Weekend. After what seemed like
a never-ending Summer of triple digits and no rain, the pattern has
done a complete 180, with CPC 6-10 day precip outlook showing Likely
Above normal precip (50-60%) odds and near to perhaps below normal
temperatures (40-50%) odds. This is all largely due in part to a
continued active mid/upper level pattern as the Subtropical Ridge
remains situated over the Great Basin through next week. This
pattern will continue to result in unsettled weather with basically
daily rain and storm chances as several disturbances swing through
South-Central Texas.
From Thursday evening through Sunday evening, we`ll carry at least a
chance to even high chance for precip for a majority of South-
Central Texas. Several inverted troughs/tropical waves will move
through the region, teaming up with energy wrapping around the
eastern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge over the western CONUS.
PWATs will remain above normal, some 1 to 2 sigma above the mean for
early September over the region through the holiday weekend. Values
of 1.8-2.2" appear to be a good bet based on GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble
forecasts. The exact details as far as timing and where the heaviest
rainfall can be expected is the most difficult to predict at this
distance, mainly due to the highly chaotic/convective nature of
storms. With the additional cloud cover and added moisture and
humidity, expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for most,
with a few locations topping out in the lower 90s here and there.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Light rain is ending at SSF and the remainder of the TAF sites are
now mostly dry. In the absence of rain, we have seen some IFR
ceilings develop over AUS. Confidence is low on whether or not these
will remain in place through the night and some amendments are likely
to be needed. Regardless at least MVFR ceilings are expected to be in
place at all sites by morning. Rain chances will likely be too low to
mention for the I35 sites tomorrow, but another round appears likely
for DRT sometime between 9-15z in the morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 75 91 / 20 40 30 60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 92 75 92 / 20 40 30 60
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 92 74 94 / 20 40 30 60
Burnet Muni Airport 73 90 73 89 / 30 50 30 70
Del Rio Intl Airport 74 87 75 89 / 80 70 50 60
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 92 74 90 / 30 40 30 70
Hondo Muni Airport 75 90 74 93 / 40 40 30 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 92 74 92 / 20 40 30 60
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 91 75 93 / 20 40 30 50
Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 94 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Quigley
Aviation...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
952 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Potential exists for convection along the Red River this afternoon
within a reservoir of instability. Most of the forecast area is
under northeasterly surface winds following convection yesterday.
This is allowing weak dry air advection into northern and central
Oklahoma. Given poor mid-level lapse rates in a deeply tropical
environment (PWATs in excess of 2.0 inches), maintaining surface
dewpoints in the 70-72 and up range will be necessary to achieve
meaningful surface-based instability today. Where this occurs
(southern Oklahoma and western north Texas), MLCAPE will exceed
2,000 J/kg per RAP forecast soundings. Flooding concerns today will
be tempered by both lower storm coverage than the previous two days,
and by uniform weak easterlies throughout the troposphere, which
should discourage cell training. Still, the potential exists for
minor flooding with any of the stronger storms.
This activity will diminish rather rapidly after sunset with the
loss of instability. Low-end rain chances will remain in western
north Texas overnight and into the morning where moisture may be
sufficient to overcome nocturnal cooling. The pattern will remain
rather stagnant into tomorrow, with a disturbance to our southwest
over the Rio Grande Valley of far west Texas. Thus, when insolation
increases tomorrow, storm chances will once again exist in far
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. High temperatures will be
relatively close to normal - highest across north central Oklahoma,
which has received little rainfall recently.
MEISTER
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
Long-term pattern will be driven by flow interacting with the
Southwest ridge. The disturbance over far west Texas will begin to
phase with a trough rounding the northern periphery of the ridge on
Thursday, developing a weak shortwave trough over our area. Rain
chances will be the greatest over the southern part of the forecast
area once more, although the exact location of the greatest chance
of precipitation likely won`t be known until we see the exact track
the phasing disturbance takes. Northerly flow between the shortwave
trough and the ridge to its west will dominate on Friday. Thus,
expect generally low rain chances through Friday night. Temperatures
through the end of the week should be seasonable, although the
troughing on Friday may bring highs down a degree or two.
After Friday, global models diverge dramatically. Experimental
ensemble clustering data show that the EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensembles
all develop different outcomes. Tend to favor the EPS outcome, which
shows the upper-level ridge strengthening and driving more northerly
flow over the Plains. This would tend to keep our forecast drier and
a bit cooler through the weekend. However, it is worth noting the
possibilities outlined by the GEFS and CMC ensembles, which suggest
a weaker/further west ridge could lead to somewhat hotter and wetter
conditions. Leaving PoPS at 30% and below to account for the
uncertain nature of the forecast.
MEISTER
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2022
VFR will apply through the forecast period. There`s a low chance
of some showers and thunderstorms developing by mid day near SPS
so have included a PROB30 there for this. Otherwise, expect mid to
high clouds over most terminals. Winds will become more
southeasterly as the forecast progresses. Speeds will generally
remain below 10 kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 91 70 87 / 0 10 10 20
Hobart OK 71 92 69 88 / 10 10 10 20
Wichita Falls TX 72 89 72 86 / 20 30 20 40
Gage OK 65 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 65 94 65 92 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 72 91 72 87 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...03