Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/30/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1035 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Warn and humid conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday, along with showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Cooler and drier conditions are then expected for much of the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 1030 PM Update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs to account for a few additional scattered showers and thunderstorms working its way into the Twin Tiers from Central PA. Expecting these to gradually dissipate later tonight. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. 630 PM update... The line of storms mentioned in the previous forecast have over-performed and the CAMs struggled with it. Storms are starting to weaken but the southern portion of the line moving through the Southern Tier still looks good. With this line of storms, there has been strong wind gusts and multiple reports of trees and wires down. Again, it does look like these storms are weakening though as the sun begins to set and the environment slowly becomes more stable. PoPs were increased for this line with mostly manual adjustments. These storms have cooled the areas that they have passed through. Upper 60s and low 70s are being reported west of this line while 80s and 90s are still be reported to the east. Temperatures were touched up due to this storm. 345 PM update... A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to move through western NY and PA. The CAMs have not been handling this system well at all though the latest HRRR may now be getting it. Even so, this system will move through the region late this afternoon and into the evening hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows that there is decent instability present across northern NY with CAPE of at least 1500 J/kg and bulk shear around 20 kts. Gusty winds would be the main threat with this line as DCAPE is already over 1000 ahead of this line. While there is dry air present that could break up this line over our region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the CNY, specifically from the western Twin Tiers and all the way up through the Tug Hill Plateau. This line should dissipate after sunset, if not before, once the environment becomes more stable. Conditions would then be mostly dry through the overnight hours. Overnight temperatures will be warm, only falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. If skies clear enough tonight, there may also be some patchy valley fog in the Wyoming Valley and Catskills. There remains some uncertainty on what happens tomorrow. An upper- level trough sweeps across the Great Lakes Region and into the Northeast tomorrow. A weak wave or two could pass through the region, triggering some rain showers in the morning across most of CNY. If this occurs, then the concern for the severe threat during the afternoon would decrease. However, if conditions can remain dry through the morning and skies are just partly cloudy, then daytime heating will help create a more unstable environment for the main line of showers and storms ahead of a cold front. Modeled CAPE will be 500 to 1000 J/kg with shear up to 35 kts. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat, though heavy rainfall will also be possible. PWAT values will be around 2 inches and elevated warm cloud depths are also expected. Forecasted QPF totals from tonight through Tuesday night range form 0.5 to 1.5 inches with up to 2 inches locally. This could lead to ponding and even isolated flash flood issues, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Tuesday is expected to be hot and humid as well. Highs will be in the 80s for most with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s. Heat indices are not expected to be as high as they were today but valley locations from the Twin Tiers and southward could have values in the low 90s. The high temperatures will be reached earlier in the day for portions of CNY as the showers and storms move in. For areas that had likely PoPs (at least 55%) or higher, than the highs were reduced a few degrees from NBM and Conshort blended guidance. For the rest of the region, they were reduced just a degree. The main line of showers and storms is expected to be east of I-81 by Tuesday evening as it continues to move through the region with the cold front lagging behind it. Conditions should become dry from the west during the overnight hours. By early Wednesday morning, the cold front pushes the showers and storms out of the region and brings drier, cooler air into the region. With skies clearing, winds becoming calmer, and the added moisture from the rain showers, patchy valley becomes possible after midnight. Temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 50s and low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 305 PM Update Most of the northeastern U.S. will remain under a negatively tilted upper level trough at the start of the period, as it slowly lifts to the northeast over time. Precip coverage will taper off by Wednesday morning, but additional showers will be possible later in the day as several weaker shortwave troughs rotate through in the afternoon, aided by a 100+ knot jet streak nosing into NY/PA. Northwest flow will continue on Thursday, and there`s an outside chance of some lake-enhanced showers near and north of the Thruway. High pressure will build in on Thursday night, along with drier air and lighter winds. Low temperatures on Friday morning could even dip into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 305 PM Update... After a crisp start Friday morning, temperatures will rebound to near seasonal highs on Friday, as high pressure begins drifting offshore. Temperatures will trend back up above normal on Saturday as a cold front slowly approaches the lower Great Lakes. This front will be the next chance for rain, though it looks like it would likely hold off until Sunday, but potentially sagging across the area and becoming nearly stationary thereafter. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the first half of this period. There is still a line of showers/storms that is moving east across the NY terminals. The storms have begun to weaken though and should just be rain showers by the time it gets to RME. Gusty winds have been common with this system though restrictions have not always occurred. Once this line moves through, dry conditions are expected overnight. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at RME, SYR, BGM and ELM tonight and into early Tuesday morning. Winds also become calmer with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts. A fairly strong system is expected to bring multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. With this system ceilings will fall to MVFR or below and visibilities will be reduced, especially if a thunderstorm passes right over a terminal. Heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts will be the main hazards with any storm. There remains some uncertainty with the this system, especially with the timing of this system and how low restrictions may fall. Most model guidance keeps showers and storms around in the region just past this TAF period. Outside of these thunderstorms, winds will be from the southwest with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Outlook... Tuesday night...Occasional restrictions anticipated in showers and thunderstorms as the system moves out. Low clouds and patch fog will be possible once the rain moves out. Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers and associated restrictions at SYR and RME. Friday though Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/BTL/MDP NEAR TERM...BJG/BTL SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...BTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 This afternoon`s water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed a mid level trough moving east across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region, which was responsible for pushing a weak cold front south across Kansas. Late this afternoon, surface observation plot and clear-air radar returns showed a weak low pressure area at the surface centered near Dodge City. There were a couple areas of enhanced boundary layer convergence in vicinity of this low and the cold front, and any of these enhanced areas of convergence may be enough to initiate surface-based convection. The best signal among the CAMs, including the latest several HRRR runs, suggests the region from Dodge city up toward La Crosse would be the best area for initiation, and the north-northwest flow aloft would put the areas south of Dodge City to La Crosse line in the greatest threat area for convection. Mid level winds around 6km AGL will increase slightly through the evening, so any storms at or shortly after sunset could be marginally severe owing to slightly increased deep layer shear supporting a multi-cell cluster or two. The overall lack of substantial forcing for ascent should keep convective activity fairly isolated/widely scattered in nature. After sunset, there is some indication that pristine convection may develop along the elevated front centered around 850-800mb or so, a bit farther north up along I-70, however the latest POP grids will not necessarily reflect this later in the evening/late night hours, but it is something that will need to be monitored. Thunderstorm chances will trend downward fairly significantly early Tuesday morning as the cold front continues to move south across southwest and eventually through south central Kansas. On Tuesday, temperatures will pull back some 5 to 8 degrees from this afternoon`s highs on the northeast surface winds behind the front with any new convection on Tuesday expected to be well to the south across West Texas. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Quiet weather will prevail for much, if not all the Long Term period through the upcoming weekend. The one exception to this may be Friday/Friday Night when another polar front will likely push south into western Kansas as another shortwave trough moves along the Canadian border into the Upper Great Lakes region. The latest ECMWF, GFS, and GDPS models do show some QPF signal, although since these are apparently new trends in the global models for the end of the week, the NBM POPs are still fairly low in the 10 to 15 percent range. As far as temperatures goes, persistence will be a pretty good forecast method through much of the period as there will not be much change in the lower troposphere thermodynamic regime -- resulting in highs lower to mid 90s and lows generally lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 513 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will persist across portions of central and southwest Kansas through this evening, likely affecting the vicinity of KDDC and possibly KHYS and KLBL. Storms are expected to begin dissipating after sunset. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Gusty south winds will persist across south central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas through mid-evening as a near stationary frontal boundary remains anchored from southwest Kansas northeast into north central Kansas. Northeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to continue north of the boundary in west central, central, and extreme southwest Kansas. Widespread light and variable winds are expected later overnight with the loss of daytime heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 93 62 94 / 20 0 0 0 GCK 62 92 61 93 / 20 0 0 0 EHA 62 90 61 92 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 64 92 62 93 / 20 10 0 0 HYS 62 91 62 94 / 10 0 0 0 P28 67 93 63 94 / 30 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
641 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...00Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 An active day was seen through much of the area today, as a slow moving cold front fired up some strong to severe storms throughout the area. The line of storms produced very frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Some large hail was seen as well. These storms have since moved out and temperatures are slowly starting to rebound up closer to the Interstate 80 corridor. In the south, they have stayed relatively dry and clear all day, which has allowed them to increase into the upper 80s to 90s. Areas south of Interstate 80 will need to be watched through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, as severe weather potential exists. The SPC has these areas highlighted in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with primary hazards being damaging winds and isolated large hail. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Remaining showers/storms along the cold front may be seen along and south of the Highway 34 corridor. Confidence is not very high on this, as short term guidance does not have a good grasp on where these will set up. Along those same lines, some of the latest runs of the HRRR try to initiate convection again between the Interstate 80 and Highway 34 corridor. With that said, we are not placing our faith in the short term guidance. They have performed poorly on this event thus far. If we do get storms, they hold potential to go strong/severe fast, with severe winds and hail being the main hazards. Cold front slowly continues to push out of the area this evening and will be out of the area by nightfall. While we may see some post frontal showers and storms in our far south and southeast, most of the area will be dry. Beautiful post-frontal air will settle in and the clouds will move out. Thus, temperatures and humidity drop significantly compared to the prior night, where much of the area will be in the upper 50s to near 60. With a lower humidity, it will feel quite cool. Open those windows! Tomorrow, you cannot ask for a better summer day. High pressure moves in and we will sit with clear skies and a northwest breeze. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with low humidity. Enjoy a beautiful Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Key Message: 1) Seasonable weather will be seen through midweek, as high pressure settles in and we remain in northwest flow. Discussion... Relatively quiet stretch of weather ahead of us. High pressure moves in midweek, which will leave us with quiet and seasonal weather. Both aloft and near the surface, we will remain in northwest flow. While there are some weaker waves that pass nearby, we do not get any return flow until late week and into the weekend. Once we see the return flow, long term guidance hints at the potential for some precipitation chances on Friday/Saturday, associated with another passing wave. This would seem to be the next chance of any precipitation, but there is not much agreement on this. Thus, we opted to keep the Slight PoPs unchanged Friday into Saturday. Enjoy a beautiful week in the 80s, with low humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A few showers will remain possible early evening at MLI and BRL until a mid level front passes. Coverage looks to be fairly isolated and thus no mention at either terminal, but will monitor and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period with westerly winds at or below 10 kts tonight become gusty N/NW at 15-25 kts after 15z Tuesday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gunkel SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
544 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 GOES visible satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies across the Western Slope this afternoon. This is in response to building high pressure across the Great Basin with dry northerly mid-level flow on its eastern flank. Diabatic heating, orographics and left over moisture have resulted in some high based cumulus clouds over parts of the higher terrain, particularly the San Juans and Continental Divide mountains, but that`s about it. RAP mesoscale analysis is depicting roughly 250-500 j/kg of surface based CAPE across the San Juans so a brief and spotty shower can`t be completely ruled out there. However, short range forecast soundings indicate a robust mid-level cap is in place so that will greatly limit the overall convective potential. Otherwise, it`s a quiet weather day for most with temperatures ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Clear skies and light winds will make for pleasant weather again tonight. Low temperatures this morning were several degrees below blended guidance so knocked tonight`s lows down several degrees given continued ideal radiational cooling conditions. Tuesday is shaping up to be a similar day to today with high pressure remaining in control. A couple isolated showers and perhaps a brief t-storm are possible again across the San Juans, but even there, most of the day will be rain free. High temperatures will climb a couple more degrees on top of today`s readings and will remain well above average for the end of August. Cool and quiet weather is in store Tuesday night under mainly clear skies. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Ensemble guidance continues to advertise a highly anomalous ridge of high pressure dominating the western U.S. through the entire long term forecast. A few low amplitude waves moving through fast west and northwesterly flow may attempt to flatten the ridge somewhat Wednesday and Thursday, but 500mb heights are progged to quickly recover and strengthen soon after the waves exit stage right. In fact, by Friday and Saturday, the ECMWF ensemble situational awareness table shows 500mb heights across the Great Basin, northern Four Corners and northern Rockies/Intermountain West climbing above the >99th percentile. Given a ridge of this magnitude at this time of year, a period of anomalous late season heat is becoming increasingly likely to close out August and start September. The latest deterministic NBM is already spitting out high temperatures across the Grand Valley, Utah Grand Flat and the lower desert valleys of southeast Utah in the upper 90s and low 100s for the latter half of the week and weekend. Compared to climatology, these forecast high temperatures are roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In the climate record for the Grand Junction area, there are only 2 more days left this year when the daily record high temperature is in the triple digits and both are in the first week of September (9/1: 100F in 2019 and 9/4: 100F in 1995). Thus, temperatures that hot this late in the summer are rare. Given Labor Day weekend is coming up and many will be recreating outdoors, it`s important to start getting the message out now. Don`t let late season heat sneak up on you and keep the heat in mind when making outdoor plans later this week and this weekend. As far as precipitation chances, any shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to be confined to the San Juans and portions of the central Continental Divide mountains each afternoon with mainly dry weather expected elsewhere. Moisture is likely to be limited with the tap of subtropical moisture displaced far away from our forecast area. In a hot and dry pattern like this one, the threat shifts away from heavy rain and flash flooding to gusty outflow winds. Not to say a few stronger cells can`t cause localized flooding issues, but the risk is much lower than compared to the last few weeks and months. Some ensemble guidance is hinting at more robust moisture making a return sometime next week so that risk may very well increase again. Since we`re still a week or more away from that potential, however, we`ll late guidance sort that out as we get closer. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies and generally light terrain driven diurnal winds. There is a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms after 18Z mostly along the Continental Divide in central and southern Colorado. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDM LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...DB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1123 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 931 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Surface analysis this evening shows a trough of low pressure stretching from Lake Michigan across IL to eastern MO. GOES16 shows many areas of convection ahead of this trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes across Indiana to southern MO and the southern plains. Water vapor showed a plume of moisture in place across Central Indiana, ahead of the upper trough in place over the upper midwest. A warm and humid air mass remained in place across Central Indiana with dew points lingering near 70. Radar shows scattered convection across the area. Some storms to the east were remnants from early daytime heating storms while newer development to the west was associated with the approaching upper trough. HRRR continues to suggest that scattered convection along and ahead of the approaching surface trough will continue to push across Central Indiana overnight. Forecast soundings overnight remain rather saturation, with dry air arriving only late in the night from the northwest in the wake of the passing trough axis. Thus expect the ongoing scattered showers and storms to continue to make progress across Central Indiana overnight. SPC mesoanalysis page suggests some CIN in place across the area and the severe threat appears to be limited, but heavy rain and frequent lightning will still be expected with any storms. Thus have used high pops overnight, particularly in the 10pm - 3am window as best forcing should pass during that period. As dry air arrives late tonight, ramping pops lower from NW toward the SE. Minimal temperature advection is expected overnight, thus lows around 70 appear on the mark and only minor adjustments were made for that. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Highlights: -2 rounds of strong to severe storms, first round this afternoon north of Indy, second late this evening across central Indiana. -Damaging winds primary threat, especially towards Lafayette. This Afternoon and Tonight. This discussion will mostly be focused on the larger scale pattern for the storm potential this evening. For finer scale details, see Meso-discussion above. A seasonably strong upper level trough continues to slowly push to the east across the Upper Great Lakes Region with a 250mb jet approaching 100kts. This strong jet combined with CAPE values well over 3500 J/kg have allowed for storms to initiate across northern Illinois. This complex will be the first potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana as it pushes to the east and south. Further to the south, isolated to scattered showers have formed north of the Ohio River where a remnant frontal boundary along an axis of convergent air in the mid levels is creating an environment favorable for these weak and scattered showers. Going into later this afternoon expect that the first complex may skirt the northern counties as the cold pool strengthens and the complex begins a southern turn. As these storms move south they will be exiting the area of highest instability and moving into a weakly sheared environment which will lead to a gradual weakening but will depend on the strength of the cold pool. A second round of storms is then expected to initiate late this evening and move into central Indiana during the early overnight hours. Confidence in the strength and southern extent of the complex remains low with a lot of uncertainty as to how much time for recovery there will be across northern Illinois. Do think that the area near Lafayette remains where the highest potential for damaging wind gusts will be. The severe threat will lessen later into the overnight hours as the loss of heating combined with weaker shear will limit the maintenance potential for any storm complex. Do think that periods of heavy rain and perhaps training of showers and storms may continue well into the night causing isolated flooding problems. Rain chances will then come to an end by sunrise as the moisture transfer becomes cut off by the advancing trough. Can`t rule out some patchy fog towards daybreak with the abundant moisture, but the lack of clearing and winds around 5-10 mph will limit fog coverage. Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. The aftermath of the system tonight will bring a return to dry and pleasant conditions across central Indiana. Surface high pressure will quickly build in across the area during the afternoon hours with CAA aloft in the presence of northwesterly flow. Dew points will crash into the low to mid 50s by mid afternoon which will then allow for cooler temperatures tomorrow night. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Upper troughing across the northeast with upper ridging out west will result in predominantly NW flow through the long term period. At the surface, high pressure is likely to dominate until the weekend, providing pleasant weather with large scale subsidence dropping dewpoints into the low 50s. Look for an upper shortwave to approach the area late week. Precipitation is unlikely with surface high pressure keeping the low levels dry, but an increase in cloud cover is expected. By the weekend, temperatures will warm up as upper ridging builds across the region. In addition, winds should become more southerly with the surface high moving east of the area Friday. Increasing moisture due to southerly flow and daytime heating may lead to a few pop up showers and storms, but confidence is very low this far out. Ensemble guidance show an inverted trough across the southeast moving north closer to southern portions of the CWA around Sunday. If the trough can make it far enough north then rain chances will need to be slightly increased. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time as most ensembles keep it south of central Indiana. Expect below average temperatures to begin the period. Southerly flow and a building upper ridge should allow temperatures to climb into the upper 80s by the weekend. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1123 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Impacts: * Convection with brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be expected for the first 3-4 hours of the Taf period. * VFR Conditions will be expected for much of the TAF period after 10Z-12Z. Discussion: Ongoing convection was found across much of Central Indiana...impacting LAF...IND...HUF. This is associated with the approaching upper wave and cool front arriving from the west. Convection is expected to continue and progress eastward over the next 3-4 hours. HRRR shows precip exiting the area by 10Z as forecast soundings show the arrival of dry air within the mid levels as the convection departs. VFR conditions are expected thereafter as NW flow and subsidence will persist in advance of the arrival of high pressure over the plains states. Forecast soundings show a dry column on Tuesday with unreachable convective temps. Thus a mostly sunny sky will be expected at that time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...Puma Short Term...White/Melo Long Term...Melo Aviation...Puma
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1108 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2022 The forecast remains largely on track. A swath of showers and some embedded lightning hang across the far northern counties, otherwise it`s quiet elsewhere for now. Have fine tuned PoPs and sky based on the latest trends, while also loading and blending the latest T, Td, and wind obs. Grids have been sent to NDFD and Webfarms. UPDATE Issued at 902 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2022 Plenty of CAPE from the warm and humid airmass this afternoon has allowed for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop early this evening. Fortunately, with the loss daytime heating and suggested CAM trends, activity will taper off for most over the next couple of hours. With that said and given the radar trends, did bump up PoPs to include slight chance (20%) in the southeast during this timeframe. Anticipate a bit of a lull as we near midnight, before the approaching upper level trough and cold front bring the return for showers and thunderstorms late overnight and into Tuesday morning. Have updated sky grids to better reflect satellite trends, as well as blending in the latest T/Td obs. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 333 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2022 Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon on what appeared to be a pre-frontal trough axis. These storms have been moving through mainly areas around the I-64 corridor. Overall the CAMs have struggled to handle this convection, with the later runs of the HRRR starting to show more promise. A cold front remains NW of the area right now and will push toward eastern Kentucky later tonight into Tuesday. This will bring better chances of showers and thunderstorms toward dawn on Tuesday morning, as help from a weak wave is noted in the mid-levels. Overnight lows will generally be around 70 degrees in most spots, with increasing cloud cover expected through the night. Tuesday chances of showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east through the day. This as a cold front nears and an upper level wave noted in the Upper Midwest becomes slightly deeper across the Ohio Valley bringing decent height falls with it. This will lead to a good shot of rainfall to the area with some seeing 0.5 to possibly an inch of rainfall. While the moisture is ample for this time of year the progressive nature of this system would lead to little if any flooding potential. Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the lower 80s for most spots under mostly cloud skies. Tuesday night, the main cold front will push southeast through the area and northwest winds will become the theme. Overall flow will be weak as high pressure noses eastward and could allow for a few ridge/valley splits. However, opted not to go too wild with the splits given the front and northwest flow potential keeping this from being as much a factor. The other issue could be some decent fog production in the valleys given previous day rainfall and cooler are advecting into the area. Most locations will be in the lower 60s with some mid to upper 50s possible in the valleys. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 339 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2022 The last day of meteorological summer will segue into autumn with an absolutely gorgeous stretch of warm, dry warm sunshine-filled days and refreshingly cool nights. Humidity levels, above normal temperatures and some rain chances do return for the Labor Day weekend, but it doesn’t look like a washout. The latest model suite analysis beginning 12z Wednesday shows the 5H trough axis well to our east while heights rise over the Ohio Valley to the east of a sprawling ~596 dam high centered over Utah. The sinking motions aloft due to the closed high will manifest as a sprawling ~1019 mb surface high pressure centered near/over Missouri. For the first couple of days of the long-term, several pieces of shortwave energy will ride through the top of the ridge. A more pronounced shortwave will pass from the Alaska Panhandle to the the northern Saskatchewan on Thursday where it will deepen into a sub 990 mb low. The vigorous surface low will then race toward northern Quebec by Saturday while pulling arctic air southward behind the system’s cold front. The aforementioned surface high pressure lazily drifts over the Ohio Valley on Thursday and across Upstate New York/New England on Friday. Behind this high, we will see the aforementioned cold front sweeping southeastward into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes on Friday before quickly slowing thereafter due to fading upper level support. Much of the guidance suggests that this decaying boundary continues to sag southward, eventually settling to near the Ohio River by week’s end. PWATs will recover back above 1.5 inches by Saturday, sufficient for some deep convection, but the lack of notable forcing should keep coverage limited. Breaking down the period in more sensible terms, expect mostly sunny and warm afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures peaking in the lower to middle 80s. A moderate ridge- valley split should develop each night. Lows are forecast to range in the 50s at all locations on Wednesday night and in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Thursday night. Humidity levels rise and small rain chances return over the weekend, but there will still be plenty of dry time. Highs in the mid to upper 80s can be expected from Friday on through Labor Day while nighttime temperatures settle back into the 60s. Valley fog is expected to form in the favored valley locales each night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 902 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms could impact SYM and SJS for the first couple of hours of the period. These could reduce categories to IFR briefly, before all sites improve to VFR late this evening. An approaching disturbance will then bring renewed showers and storms toward dawn, reducing ceilings for all to MVFR, or lower, through mid to late morning as well as periodical visibility drops. Improvement to VFR will then return from NW to SE through the day. Winds will generally remain below 10 kts, with the exception being any storms passing near or over terminals. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BB SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...BB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
733 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .UPDATE... Diurnal convection continues across portions of northeast MS and West TN this evening but remains loosely organized at best. Instability is still strong with MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and is uncapped across most of the area. This activity will likely wane over the next few hours, but may not dissipate altogether like previous nights. Looking upstream across northern AR and southeast MO, more organized convection is moving south ahead of a prefrontal trough that will dip into the area overnight. Latest CAM guidance shows this convection holding together as it moves southeast into the CWA over the next several hours, holding together until reaching I-40. RAP progs indicate effective bulk shear increasing to 20-25 kts, giving this cluster of storms a little boost while large-scale forcing for ascent will increase this evening downstream of an approaching shortwave trough. The severe weather threat will remain low, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and/or small hail. Of greater concern is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water near 2.2" and a high melting level suggest the potential for efficient rainfall producing storms with a potential for training. The 12z HREF localized probability max mean shows a decent coverage of 1-2" rainfall amounts with localized higher totals, mainly north of I-40. PoPs and sky cover were increased for the first period. MJ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022/ DISCUSSION... Currently...A weak mid level trough extends from the OH Valley into northern Arkansas. Weak low level convergence is triggering scattered scattered showers and thunderstorms across West TN and N MS. Outflows from this activity are generating additional development that can be seen nicely on the KNQA 88D across the Memphis metro. Very high dewpoints combined with temps around 90 is producing heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees across the Mid-South. Tonight through Tuesday...This mainly diurnally driven convection will gradually dissipate with loss of heating early this evening. A very unstable airmass, PWs greater than 2 inches and slow movement could result in some isolated heavy rainfall amounts and localized flooding. A more potent mid level trough will move into the Great Lakes tonight and drive a cold front south. This front will push through the Mid-South on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the front, over the I-44 corridor, will probably move into northern areas of the Mid- South around/after midnight. North MS will be mostly dry overnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will to tail off north to south as the front moves through Tuesday. Still expect quite a bit of humidity tomorrow ahead of the front with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Heat index values will be near 105 possible from Memphis...south through the Delta region. Tuesday night through Friday...Drier air will filter in the region during this period with plenty of sunshine under upper level ridging. Expect dewpoints in the 60s and highs in the 80s to around 90. Weekend...A weak mid level trough will move over the area this weekend with increased humidity levels and chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. Models start to diverge early next week with some major difference between the operational GFS and ECMWF concerning the amount of upper ridging across the mid MS Valley. The GEFS points to a warmer/drier early next week while the EPS is cooler and wetter. Taking the middle road for now. SJM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 0640 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 SHRAs and TSRAs will affect MEM and TUP in the short term respectively. Thereafter, VFR conds shall prevail for a few hours. Another complex of TSRAs is expected to track SE through JBR and eventually affecting MEM around midnight. Carried VCTS at both of those sites and added a tempo for MEM and the accompanying wind shift. Winds will remain mostly light and variable overnight, shifting to the west and northwest by tomorrow afternoon behind a front. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Latest RAP analysis shows high pressure over the western Atlantic, an upper level TUTT over the Caribbean, and a mid-level inverted trough over Cuba and nosing up into SW FL. PWAT value off the 12Z sounding was an impressive 2.47 inches, which is a bit higher than the HREF forecast of around 2.2 inches. Gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms impacted the Atlantic coast this morning, with some impressive gusts of 40-50 mph gusts measured at several locations right along the coast. After a bit of a lull, convection is developing this afternoon over the Interior and Gulf coast and will continue through this evening, before waning late tonight to isolated/scattered showers and storms overnight. Any storm this afternoon into early evening will have the potential for strong gusty winds, and the potential for some localized street flooding. Low temps tonight in the mid to upper 70s, and around 80 near the coast. Forecast soundings show mid-level dry air intrusion on Tuesday. PWAT values fall back to around 1.6 inches east coast to around 2 inches west coast. Overall expecting less coverage of convection, especially along the east coast, but Interior and Gulf coast areas will still have fairly high PoPs during the afternoon and early evening hours. With the less coverage expected, afternoon high temps will likely be a couple degrees higher than today, with most areas reaching the lower 90s. Combined with the high humidity, peak heat index values will once again be over 100 degrees, with some inland locations likely peaking around 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Saturday)... Models synoptic scenario for the beginning of the long term has not changed too much with latest runs, with weakening high pressure across the SE CONUS keeping light SE winds over SoFlo. This pattern will also result in continuing bouts of convection along the east coast during the morning hours, then favoring interior and Gulf coast areas in the afternoon/evening hours due to sea breeze development and outflow boundary interactions. Thus, main hazard will be potential for localized flooding under heavy/persistent downpours Wednesday. By Thursday and heading into the weekend, long range models depict a long wave trough developing across the eastern seaboard and extending into the NE GOMEX. The trough and its associated sfc boundary do not seem to push further south than maybe the northern portions of the Florida Peninsula, but should influence the regional airmass enough to briefly veer winds over SoFlo to a more southerly flow on Thursday, bringing moisture and a more unstable airmass across the region. Steeper lapse rates, increasing PWATs, and cooler 500 mb temps around -8 Celsius will result in slightly better conditions for deep convection to develop Thursday and Friday. Sea breeze interactions will again provide dynamic lifting and become focal points for convection, with a significant flooding threat for the east coast metro areas. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may also be possible. The trough and sfc boundary gradually break down during the weekend, allowing for the west Atlantic ridge to expand back into the region. Expect moderate easterly winds to return, along POPs decreasing into the high-end scattered coverage. Afternoon maximum temperatures through most of the long range should reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices reaching 100 degrees over the coasts, and possibly exceeding 105 degrees for portions of the interior. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022 VFR now prevailing at all Atlantic terminals as showers remain over the coastal waters to the east of the airports. APF could still experience periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs under heavy rain through around 01Z. VFR should prevail overnight, but a few passing showers can`t be ruled out. Increasing showers in the vicinity of the terminals may also bring restrictions after 15Z. Mainly SE winds will continue through the TAF period, with possible gusty periods after 18Z for the Atlantic terminals. APF will experience SSW winds after 18Z as onshore flow develops. && .MARINE... Modest winds out of the southeast continue, while winds over the Atlantic waters may be breezy at times (10-15 kts), possibly resulting in brief periods of cautionary conditions. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the next several days, which may result in locally hazardous conditions. Seas will generally remain below 2 to 3 feet in height, and mostly benign boating conditions should prevail except near showers and thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... The rip current risk for the east coast remains limited through the next several days, however a pronounced easterly flow develops Friday through the weekend, which may result in an elevated risk for rip currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 92 80 92 / 40 50 20 60 West Kendall 77 92 75 93 / 40 50 20 60 Opa-Locka 80 93 79 93 / 40 50 20 60 Homestead 78 90 77 90 / 40 40 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 80 91 / 40 40 20 60 N Ft Lauderdale 81 90 80 90 / 40 40 20 60 Pembroke Pines 79 92 78 92 / 40 40 20 60 West Palm Beach 78 92 77 91 / 40 40 20 60 Boca Raton 80 92 78 93 / 40 40 20 60 Naples 77 90 77 90 / 60 70 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Main concern in the short term is the potential for slow-moving convection to lead to isolated instances of flooding and severe wind gusts. Convection has developed late this morning into early this afternoon north of I-40. A complex of storms is located in Payne County. Outflow has been surging southward from this complex, which is likely leading to an overall weakening trend in convective strength. This activity should exit the forecast area early this afternoon. Other showers exist further to the west and southwest. Morning AM guidance struggled to depict this convection, reducing confidence in overall evolution of this activity. However, RAP forecast soundings show an environment characterized by very steep low-level lapse rates and ample instability (MLCAPE in excess of 2,500 J/kg). Thus, there is no reason to doubt the eventual maturation of this activity into slow-moving thunderstorms. This activity will likely move very slowly initially, with sfc-8km shear around 10 kts. This combined with PWAT values in the range of 1.8-1.9 inches will enhance the potential for flooding with any areas the receive convection for a sustained period of time, as well as the potential for water-laden downbursts. Expect that as convection matures and cold pools merge, activity will eventually propagate southward to the I-44 corridor. HREF/WPC guidance has highest QPFs from SPS to OUN to SUD this afternoon, where potential for flooding is highest. This round of storms will weaken with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. The next round of storms will impact the forecast area overnight as a wave travels south-southwestward around the Southwest ridge and pushes a cold front southward into the area. Steering flow will be stronger with this round of storms, so not expecting any major flooding issues except possibly in areas that received heavy rain during the afternoon. This frontal convection should exit the southern part of the forecast area shortly after daybreak tomorrow. The cold front will likely stall in southern Oklahoma and provide the focus for the redevelopment of storms across southern Oklahoma and western North Texas tomorrow. Temperatures should remain seasonable through the short-term forecast period. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 The Southern Plains will remain on the eastern edge of a ~596 dam mid-level ridge centered across the western United States. As a result, temperatures will remain near to slightly above-average through the week--but should remain "in check" from becoming too hot. The greatest uncertainty is the period from Friday into Saturday. While most of the ensemble guidance is dry, there are indications there might be a mid-level weakness that increases the probability for convection. For now, will keep the forecast dry (<15% PoPs); however, showers/storms may have to be introduced in subsequent forecasts. By early next week, increasing tropical moisture from the southeast will increase the probability of at least daytime convection. This may also lower high temperatures by at least a couple degrees. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Most storms in the area have dissipated, bringing thunderstorm chances down for the night. Additional development will be possible again tomorrow along and near the Red River, but chances are too low at this point for mention in the TAFs. Otherwise light winds gradually shifting around to the east and VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 72 92 67 / 50 30 20 0 Hobart OK 96 71 93 69 / 50 30 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 96 72 93 72 / 40 70 50 10 Gage OK 95 68 92 63 / 30 30 10 0 Ponca City OK 95 70 93 62 / 60 20 10 0 Durant OK 94 72 93 72 / 30 60 50 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
434 PM MST Mon Aug 29 2022 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation section. && .SYNOPSIS... Excessive heat warnings are in effect for many areas, including Phoenix, beginning Tuesday. Prolonged hot temperatures are forecast across the Desert Southwest. Many lower desert areas will eclipse the 110 degree mark this week, with the California deserts likely experiencing multiple afternoons of 110 plus degrees. With high pressure in place, thunderstorm chances will lessen considerably on most days and affect primarily higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... ***EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BEGINS TUESDAY FOR METRO PHOENIX, SOUTHWEST ARIZONA, AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA*** It`s a dry, sunny, and hot Monday across the region. Upper high pressure is building over the Southwest and mid-altitude moisture has scoured out. These factors leave us with less opportunities for clouds and storms this week. Replacing the monsoon moisture: intense heat. Over the next several days, a preponderance of the guidance shows a 500mb high pressure center expanding, strengthening, and moving little over the Southwestern U.S. By Wednesday, 500mb heights will approach 595 dam. This is near to just above the maximum moving average for the time of year. Looking a little closer toward ground level, 850 mb temperatures peak between +28C and +31C during the next 72 hours. This corresponds to widespread MaxTs from 108-115 across our lower deserts tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday (hottest in SE CA). This is approaching or even locally exceeding our high HeatRisk threshold. Many of us have not experienced 110+ temperatures in several weeks due to the active monsoon pattern. To make matters more miserable, there will be occasional surges of Gulf of CA moisture rising over parts of SW AZ and SE CA. Even right now, dew points are well into the 70s over the Imperial Valley. These moisture surges will be most noticeable in the morning hours, when the apparent "feels-like" temperatures can peak some 10-15F above the actual air temp. This moisture mixes out and decreases some by afternoon, but with 110+ temps, there is no solace here. Nighttime readings will not offer much relief, either. All lower deserts will see low temperatures in the 80s. Around Central Phoenix, the NBM suggests a 10-30% chance of low temperatures at or above 90F the next few mornings. These odds are likely higher than the blend is giving us for a couple reasons: 1) bias over- corrections due to recent "cooler" weather, and 2) low-level nocturnal winds off the surface of 15-25kt which promotes mixing well into the overnight period. Case in point for earlier today: the NBM gave a forecast low of 84... PHX only fell to 89. All of these factors led us to upgrade to an excessive heat warning for Metro Phoenix, SW AZ and SE CA beginning tomorrow. For SW AZ and Phoenix, the highest heat impact days are currently forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, so the warning in these areas expires Wednesday night. Even beyond this timeframe, we will continue to see at or above normal temperatures. Utilizing the cluster approach, ensemble guidance strongly agrees that we will have deep-layer ridging over the West at least through Labor Day weekend. By Saturday night, the ridge axis is forecast to nudge a little farther northwest, centering from the Great Salt Lake to Monterey, CA. Expect the most anomalous heat will shift a little bit as well... over California and up into Nevada. Thus, the excessive heat warning for SE Cali and the CO Valley will continue through Labor Day. The prolonged nature of this heat is quite dangerous. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Monsoon Setup & Storm Potential) On the thunderstorm potential side of things, chances are very limited through the week, with NBM PoPs <10% through the next 7 days for the lower deserts and mostly 10-20% for Southern Gila County. A large reason for the low PoPs is likely due to the drier air in the short term and warmer air aloft. The synoptic setup at least will be a classic Maddox et al. Type II high setup which is historically synonymous with Rim-to-Valley severe storms and PV anomalies fracturing off from the jet stream to then retrograde under the high. One such PV fracture is expected over New Mexico through today before sliding through Southeast Arizona and Northern Sonora Tuesday-Wednesday. The extended HRRR runs are now trying to bring storms in through Southern Gila County and toward the Valley on Tuesday. However, Tuesday is expected to be the driest day of the week with PWATs down near 0.9-1.1", and one of the hottest days. So, this may be a bit of a stretch, but if a storm is able to survive it would likely be discrete. The Valley is more likely to only see some mid-level debris clouds coming off the Rim. Wednesday could perhaps have a better chance with a slight boost in moisture. Moisture is expected to continue increasing, with PWATs climbing back to around 2.0" by the end of the week with additional northeasterly waves possible. So, there may be one or more good days Friday into this weekend for Rim-to- Valley storms. && .AVIATION...Updated 2334Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A decline in moisture has brought about a continued decline in thunderstorm activity today such that outflows are not expected to affect the TAF sites tonight. Northwest/west winds will prevail this evening with a slow trend toward light and variable favoring downvalley/easterly directions overnight. Southeast directions will be favored during the morning and into the afternoon before a late transition to southwesterly at KDVT and KSDL but remaining southeasterly at KIWA. Light and variable at KPHX during the late afternoon early evening. An uptick in storm activity is anticipated over southeast AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening such that southeasterly outflows could affect the metro area in the evening. Too much uncertainty at this point to reflect in the in the 30 hour TAF for KPHX. Otherwise, very little cloudiness. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: KIPL: East/southeast winds are expected this evening before becoming more variable overnight and continuing that way during the day with directions flopping around between southeast/southwest/northwest. Otherwise, clear skies. KBLH: Southwest and west directions are expected to be favored for much of the night before a lot of directional variability develops toward morning and continues through the day Tuesday. Otherwise, clear skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Substantial warming and drying through early this week will see afternoon MinRH values fall to 15-25% and persist through most of the week, while overnight MaxRH recovers to around 40-60% most places. Afternoon temperatures will be several degrees above normal for much of the next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be very limited through the week, focused mainly in the AZ high terrain areas. Apart from thunderstorms, winds will follow familiar diurnal patterns. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ530. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ531>533-535>537-540>544-546-548>551. CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Monday for CAZ560>570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Heil PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Benedict AVIATION...AJ FIRE WEATHER...Benedict
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
921 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 What turned out to be a rather active afternoon/evening has calmed down as most storms have now moved into NW Arkansas or SC Oklahoma. For the most part the overnight period should remain rather quiet, however at least some degree of instability will linger above the rain-cooled air at the sfc, plus modest moisture transport makes it difficult to completely write off additional showers or isolated storms overnight. This is at least hinted at in the 00z 3km NAM and the last few HRRR runs. Keeping a slight chance of thunder overnight and will remove mot POPs through 06z in an update, which will be issued shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 A frontal boundary will advance south across the region Tuesday, in response to a strong shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest and Great Lakes. While the meteorological term for this boundary is a cold front technically, it will not feel "cold" behind this boundary. We will notice the much drier air, at least. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible, mainly I-40 south. The much drier deep layer airmass behind the front will bring hot and tranquil weather from Tuesday evening thru the end of the week. Rain/storm chances will return by the latter part of the weekend, especially in the terrain, as moisture returns to the region from the southeast. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022 Stronger thunderstorms have shifted east of NW AR TAF sites early this evening. Still the potential for thunderstorms/brief IFR conditions at KMLC/KFSM for the next couple of hours near outflow boundary. Depending on mid clouds tonight, could see some patchy dense fog develop toward morning. For now, only included TEMPO groups for NW AR sites, but this will need to be monitored. A few storms may develop along the I-40 corridor Tuesday afternoon, near frontal boundary, but coverage is too limited to include at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 93 63 94 / 20 20 0 0 FSM 74 95 70 95 / 40 20 0 0 MLC 72 93 70 94 / 30 20 10 10 BVO 68 93 59 93 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 68 90 60 89 / 50 20 0 0 BYV 70 89 60 89 / 40 20 0 0 MKO 71 91 64 92 / 20 20 0 0 MIO 69 90 58 91 / 20 20 0 0 F10 70 93 63 93 / 20 20 0 0 HHW 72 90 72 93 / 30 30 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
806 PM PDT Mon Aug 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoon concerns continue to wane while heat takes the stage for the upcoming week. A high confidence, long duration heat event will begin tomorrow and potentially last through the Labor Day Weekend. There is some uncertainty toward the end of the period on whether this event continues or subsides, but through the rest of the week at least, heat will be the main impact concern. && .UPDATE...Quiet evening across the area as the afternoon showers and storms have all dissipated. Even less activity expected tomorrow as the upper-level high begins to build overhead. Heat continues to be the main weather story, with Excessive Heat Warnings going into effect tomorrow. The heat is likely to persist through at least Sunday, with some moisture and low storm chances creeping into our southeastern areas over the weekend. Updated forecast package will be out tonight. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight. Moisture is slowly but surely expected to decrease across the region and has dropped a few degrees already this morning across the LV Valley. That being said, dewpoints well into the 50s remains as far north as Clark County and satellite trends as of 19Z show CU development over many of the high terrain areas. Radar shows light showers and a few cloud flashes over Nye county as well. 12Z HREF maintained isolated convection with a favoring of the HWY 93 corridor and the high terrain of Clark county. Since 12Z, HRRR runs continue to advertise convection over the McCullough range with some signals for outflow generation into the southern LV Valley. Opted to increase PoPs per these trends and WPC QPF also aligned with this thinking. All of this activity should subside by nightfall and leave the region with mostly clear skies and light winds. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Weekend. The focus of the long term is the prospect of long duration anomalous heat throughout the week and into the holiday weekend. A typical setup of H5 ridging squarely over the CWA will set up as early as tomorrow and strengthen rather quickly. EC ensemble means show a +2 sigma high over much of the Desert Southwest with little change in overall pattern through Friday. In fact, H5 means intensify further by next weekend per the EC. GEFS means do show a slightly different orientation to the ridge through the week, especially by the weekend when it depicts Pacific troughing nudging the axis further west, but regardless, above average heat looks increasingly likely to linger through the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Minimal to minor impacts possible today for Harry Reid terminal. A low but increasing probability for afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon in the vicinity of the valley which could push out an outflow into the southern valley. Did not include this in the TAF but did introduce VCTS. Amendments will be needed if outflow ends up impacting the terminal directly. Otherwise, generally light diurnal winds expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Very isolated TSRA expected across the region, mainly a concern for the LV Valley sites and to a lesser extent KIFP/KEED. KBIH will experience upvalley winds with gusts as high as 30 kts this afternoon but subside after dark. Very little cloud cover expected otherwise. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods DISCUSSION/AVIATION...TB3 For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter