Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/26/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
1032 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will slowly drift north as a warm front overnight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly along and north of Interstate 90. Friday, low pressure moving from the lower Great Lakes to New England will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the weekend, high pressure building in from Ontario and Quebec will bring mainly fair weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE as of 1030 pm EDT...A cold front has become stationary just south of the northern Catskills, Capital Region and central Berkshires. A weak disturbance is moving along the boundary producing some isolated showers over the northern and central Berkshires and southern VT. Other showers and a few thunderstorms continue upstream over west-central NY. These showers and thunderstorms are with the better surge of warm advection, as the warm front lifts northward. The trend will be based on the latest 3-km HRRR and NAM for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms increased along and north of the Mohawk River Valley into the southern Adirondacks after midnight with the best coverage in the early morning hours. Some weak elevated instability is present so we kept isolated thunderstorms in. The clouds will be variable across the region with some some mid and high clouds from a wave near the mid Atlantic Coast lifting northward and also clouds along and north of the stationary front. Some patchy fog may form near the CT River Valley in eastern Windham County, southern VT. Some quick cooling of the temps occurred north and west of the Capital Region with temps falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s, these temps may drop off slightly and steady. We continue with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has place most of the Albany Forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. A mid-level vorticity maximum is forecast to reach the St. Lawrence Valley by late afternoon. An associated surface low will migrate eastward into New England during the day with a trailing cold front. A mix of sun and clouds during the morning is expected with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected along the warm front. A relatively moist boundary layer will destabilize through midday with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. Moderate buoyancy coupled with some enhancement to mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 500 mb) will contribute to the potential for storm organization. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast by the mid afternoon mainly in the form of multicellular clusters and bands of storms. A few transient supercells are possible and some risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado could develop with the most intense storms. This activity will likely diminish during the evening as the sun`s heating wanes and the cold front passes east of our area. Highs on friday from the 70s in the southern Adirondacks to near 90 in the mid Hudson Valley. Friday night winds will become northwest but temperatures won`t fall too fast as the air mass behind the cold front isn`t initially very cool or dry. Temperatures will be comfortable with lows in the 50s and 60s. Saturday and Saturday night look to be mainly fair and seasonable as high pressure builds across New York and New England. Highs Saturday from the 70s in the higher terrain to the mid 80s in the Mid Hudson Valley. With light to calm winds and the possibility of good radiational cooling, some valley fog may form late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Lows Saturday night low 50s to low 60s with a few 40s in the normally colder locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summer warmth and humidity will occupy the first half of the long term period before a potent cold front tracks through the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a notable air mass change. In fact, will feel more like fall just in time for the start of September. Read on for details. We start the long term off Sunday into Monday with weak sfc high pressure in place and weak ridging aloft. Deterministic guidance still suggests that weak shortwaves tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge on Sunday could provide just enough forcing to result in diurnally driven showers or isolated storms mainly in the eastern Catskills. Otherwise, expecting mostly sunny skies and warmer temperature well into the 80s for most of the region and slightly higher humidity compared to Saturday as the ridge axis slides to our east and southwest return flow is induced. Ridging remains overhead heading into Monday but guidance deviates if ridging will break down in response to shortwaves tracking eastward from the Great Lakes (GFS/CMC solutions) or if it will remain steadfast and maintain mainly dry conditions (ECMWF solution). Given ongoing uncertainty, we continue to show slight chance POPs on Monday to account for the potential for a few isolated afternoon showers or storms. Otherwise, southwest flow will keep summer warmth and humidity in place with highs topping out near 90 in the Hudson Valley including the Greater Capital Region and mid-Hudson Valley with mid to upper 80s elsewhere (low 80s high terrain). Warm temperatures coupled with high humidity (dew points mid to upper 60s) could result in elevated heat index values in the low to possibly mid-90s on Monday. Not enough widespread heat index values at or above 95 to mention heat advisory potential in the hazardous weather outlook but will continue to monitor. Deterministic guidance still not on the same page regarding the overall amplification and timing of the upper level trough expected Tuesday into Wednesday due to discrepancies regarding if the northern stream trough and a compact shortwave in the northern Plains phase or not. The ECWMF shows phasing occurring which results in a more amplified trough digging into the Ohio Valley while the GFS and CMC do not and therefore keep the northern trough weaker and escaping into Ontario. We maintained chance and even likely POPs for Tuesday as the sfc cold front should still track through the Northeast but should the ECWMF solution verify, a stronger front can be expected. The secondary and true cold front pushes through on Wednesday as the trough axis tracks through the region so we maintained slight chance POPs before a northwesterly wind shift will usher in a much cooler and drier air mass for Thursday. It will feel more like fall just in time for Sept 1 with PWATs below 0.5", 850hPa isotherms falling below 10C and breezy conditions. High temperatures could struggle to climb out of the 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Despite a few isolated showers developing late this afternoon in response to a weak front sliding south and eastward through the terminals, VFR conditions persist. Any isolated showers will dissipate after sunset with mid and high level clouds from the mid-Atlantic spreading northward tonight. SCT-BKN clouds near 10 to 15kft should prevent much fog from developing although GFL may be far enough north that MVFR ceilings could develop before sunrise. Due to low confidence, only include clouds at SCT025 from 09 UTC to 12 UTC. Then, two periods of showers and storms are possible during the day on Friday. First, scattered showers and isolated storms are possible from 14 - 17 UTC at all TAF sites before a brief break for some dry weather ensues during the early afternoon hours. Then, a cold front tracking south and eastward through the region will likely lead to a second period of more numerous showers and storms from 20 UTC to 00 UTC. Storm coverage is still a bit uncertain but it is possible that a terminal could be impacted by storms more than once. Any storm could result in MVFR or even IFR ceilings and visibility. Light and variable winds tonight shift to the south and southwest by 14 - 16 UTC and will increase to 7 to 12 kts with gusts to 15kts through sunset. Brief stronger wind gusts are possible in any strong to severe storm. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Some storms Friday may produce locally heavy rainfall leading to ponding of water in urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...SND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
836 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Tonight`s forecast is on track. We did not adjust any temperatures as they are already cool but with cloud cover expected much of the night across the area, they won`t drop that much more. Looking at GOES-16 and area radars (KPUX and KCYS with KFTG down for the next week for maintenance), there are batches lingering light rain showers moving east mainly south of US-34. Not much rain is reaching the ground with the showers though the foothills of Jefferson and NE Park Counties may get another tenth of an inch of rain or so. In general the trend is downward in intensity and coverage. Thus, have reduced PoPs through 1 AM, and eliminated them from many areas including the northeast corner of Colorado and the far eastern zones of Washington/Lincoln Counties. After 2AM most if not all shower activity should diminish. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the high country this afternoon. A few storms have formed over the burn areas, with one warranting a flash flood warning over Cameron Peak burn area as a result of local heavy rainfall rates. Expect this activity to continue through the early evening hours with a chance for scattered showers and a storm or two to spread eastward onto the adjacent plains. Friday will feature another day of higher coverage showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the high country. The main trough axis pushes through the region tomorrow providing a period of weak ascent, marginal instability, and above normal moisture. This will be enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms with higher coverage activity over the high country. Modest MLCAPE values (200- 600 J/kg) and bulk shear 25-35 kts will help sustain storms as well. There is a chance for showers/storms to spread into the urban corridor and plains as well. Hi-res guidance hints at the formation of a boundary over the Palmer Divide in the afternoon which may aid in development of showers or thunderstorms in that area. There is some question as to how long the monsoonal sticks around as there are hints of drying into the afternoon period as the trough advances through the region. This may factor into overall precip. chances. CAMs also display some spread in the timing of the precipitation with the HRRR initiating activity mid morning as opposed to other solutions in the early afternoon over the high country. Overall, there will be moderate to high chances over the high country in the afternoon with lower chances over the plains (< 35%). Gusty winds may be a threat with storm activity over the plains as soundings over the plains take on an inverted-v profile. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 |For late Friday night and Saturday there will be drier air filtering into Northern Colorado behind the exiting upper trof into the central plains. High pressure ridging will build during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will also be warmer, with readings nudging back into the 90s across lower elevations. There will still be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms but looks like these will be confined to the higher mountains and especially locations south of the Interstate 70 corridor through Summit and Park counties. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase on Sunday across the mountains and plains with an approaching upper trof approaches Colorado. However, moisture appears a bit limited so overall coverage of storms more likely in the scattered category and more numerous in the northern mountains. Temperatures will likely be similar or just a shade cooler with more clouds. There is more uncertainty and lower confidence in next week`s forecast due to the model`s handling of the early week trof. 00Z European run weakens the low and drops in southward over Colorado through the early part of the week while the GFS develops a closed low across Kansas and over the southern high plains through the middle of next week. However, new 12z European solution keeps a progressive trof with the main trof over the Great Lakes by Tuesday. So certainly not much run to run consistency as of late. Overall looks like temperatures would be seasonal early in the week then a return to hot and dry from the middle of the week onward with building ridge of high pressure anchored over the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. Won`t make many changes to extended forecast in regards to showers chances and temperatures, especially if long range models do more flips. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 555 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 VFR conditions through Friday evening. Radar is showing areas of light rain showers moving WNW to ESE across the terminals. Instability is weak enough that we do not expect any lightning with any of the shower activity. After about 02Z the showers should either be dissipated or have moved east of the terminals. Winds behind the showers have weakened below 20 kts out of the WNW at BJC and DEN, and that trend will continue through 02Z and beyond as drainage winds around 10 kts kick in at DEN and APA (SSW). BJC should be about west all night and under 10 kts. Tomorrow looks like a little less shower activity will be expected. Winds should me mostly out of the east midday 10-15 kts, but they will probably shift to the NW in the afternoon hours at 10-25 kts or so (gusts), due to convective activity to the west of the terminals. No thunder is anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 There will be an elevated threat for flash flooding over the Cameron Peak and East Troublesome burn areas tomorrow and a limited threat for the other burns. Monsoonal moisture and marginal instability will promote higher coverage showers/storms tomorrow afternoon. Storm motions will be modest as well. A few stronger storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall which may cause impacts over the burn areas. There will be limited threats of flash flooding on the burn scars, mainly Friday evening and again on Sunday. Saturday looks to be the driest day with only isolated coverage of storms. The long range forecast is shaping up drier and warmer for the middle of next week with mainly isolated coverage of storms. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Schlatter SHORT TERM...Mensch LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Schlatter HYDROLOGY...Mensch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1000 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and quiet weather tonight for much of southern New England. Patchy fog across portions of the Cape and Islands. Increasing humidity with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures this weekend away from the coast, then more heat and humidity likely returns next week. While dry weather is expected for much of this weekend into Monday, a brief afternoon evening shower or thunderstorm may develop each day. The risk of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Tuesday into Wednesday as a strong cold front approaches. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update Forecast remains on track and no adjustments are to the near- term forecast are needed at this time. Previous Discussion Highlights * Increasing mid/high clouds tonight. Patchy fog and low clouds across the Cape/Islands and perhaps portions of the CT River Valley. The main weather problem this evening remains the extent and timing of fog across portions of the Cape and islands. The encroaching mid and high level clouds will soon obscure our real-time monitoring via satellite. The observation at Nantucket was right along the western edge of this fog back, which was also just offshore of Chatham. Expecting a light SE flow to continue for a little bit longer before turning a bit more from the S. Thus, fog should eventually overspread at least Nantucket and the outer Cape for a time overnight. Regional radar data showed showers continuing to diminish after sunset. Minor tweaks to temperatures overnight, too. Previous Discussion... Mid level ridge axis flattens out over New England this evening, while we remain under cyclonic flow. High pressure will build further offshore tonight. Dry and quiet weather anticipated across southern New England tonight. Do have a subtle shortwave lifting across the eastern Great Lakes, which should be enough to bring us some increasing mid/high clouds. May be difficult for temps to drop given the mid/high clouds in place despite the light winds. Low temps bottom out in the 60s. Will see flow become south/southwesterly in the lower levels, bringing increasing low level moisture. This will be enough to spread low clouds into the Cape along with Nantucket and perhaps Marthas Vineyard. Do have some uncertainty in how low visibilities get as winds may stay up high enough to keep the fog at bay. However, given the increasing low level moisture leaned toward the GLAMP and NBM guidance. This puts the visibilities into the 1/2 roughly 4 SM range. Should see most of this burn off fairly rapidly as the sun rises. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Highlights * Cold front slides in bringing showers and thunderstorms. Should see this activity tapering off Friday evening as the cold front slides through. Strong to severe storms possible with the main risk of damaging wind gusts, locally heavy downpours, hail and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Cyclonic flow still in place across southern New England Friday into early Saturday. Will have a broad deamplifying trough lift from the eastern Great Lakes early on Friday into northern New England by Friday evening. An approaching cold front will bring the risk of showers/storms ahead of it. Not a whole lot of change from the previous forecast. The environmental parameters essentially look the same with MLCAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer of roughly 25-35 kts and surface dew points in the low/mid 60s. Will note that I have thrown out the NAM guidance as it has once again advected too high a dew point airmass over the region, which brings MLCAPE values into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Leaned toward the vast majority of guidance, which again keeps us in a few hundred to perhaps 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Some other parameters to keep in mind is there are a few hundred J/kg of hail growth zone CAPE, 6-8 degree Celsius low level lapse rates, poor mid level lapse rates, a few hundred to perhaps 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and PWATs approaching 1.5-1.75 inches. Lastly, given the increasing southwesterly flow in the low/mid levels will have 0-1 km SRH approaching 100 m2/s2 across the CT Valley into portion of central MA along with low LCL heights. Given this environment there will be the risk of strong/severe storms. The main threat will be damaging straight line wind gusts, locally heavy downpours, some instances of large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Have leaned on the HRRR NCAR Neural Network Convective Hazard forecast, which still indicates wind as the primary risk. Given CAMs showing more of a multicellular cluster think this will be the main threat along with heavy rain, but given the environment a supercell or two not out of the question which would enhance the hail risk and an isolated tornado. Timeframe wise still thinking that roughly 12 PM until 8-10 PM will be the window for the risk. Mitigating factors to the severe risk are the poor mid level lapse rates and do have some question on the strength of the forcing with some height rises aloft during the day given the deamplifying trough. Regardless, think that the latest SPC Day 2 Outlooks highlights the greatest risk area well. High temps topping out in the 80s across southern New England on Friday. Should see temps drop a bit during the evening in wake of the frontal passage, but for most will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Highlights... * Slightly warmer than normal this weekend away from the coast, with heat/humidity returning early next week * A brief isolated shower or thunderstorm possible this weekend into Monday, but dry most of this time * Increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday Have average confidence in the overall forecast through early next week, then significant model differences arise Tuesday into Thursday. This looks to be mainly a timing issue, so stuck rather closely to the ensemble mean of the NBM for that portion of this forecast. Expecting nearly zonal mid level flow to be replaced by mid level trough over the eastern USA by the middle of next week. The 25/12Z ECMWF has a more phased approach and shifts this trough eastward quite earlier than the other guidance. The GFS and CMC solutions lag this timing and have a cutoff mid level low farther to the SW. Between Tuesday and Thursday, the solutions flip, with the ECMWF solution being the farthest west. At the surface, high pressure this weekend slowly moves offshore early next week. A series of cold fronts then should approach southern New England Tuesday into Wednesday. Expecting dry weather most of this portion of the forecast, although it be getting increasingly humid next week. We will likely have to wait until a pair of cold fronts arrive towards the middle of next week to get a shot at additional rainfall. Expecting temperatures to be lower this weekend than most of next week. Once high pressure moves offshore, the SW return flow will lead to the increase in heat and humidity. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High confidence away from the Cape/ACK. VFR across the interior with light and variable winds. Anticipate low stratus and perhaps some patchy fog to spread into the Cape/Islands. More confident at this point in the low clouds spreading in, but winds may stay high enough to keep from IFR/LIFR visibilities at some locations. Friday...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing. Should see any lingering low clouds/fog across the Cape/Island lift by 12-15Z. Elsewhere VFR with increasing S/SW winds. Showers and thunderstorms spreading in from west to east. Confidence at this point highest in the thunder potential across the interior from ORH/BAF/BDL. Should see most of the activity after 18Z. Could see gusty winds, heavy rain and perhaps some small hail if a stronger storm passes over a terminal across the interior. Less confident toward E MA/SE MA coast in activity holding together. Friday night...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. Any lingering showers/storms tapering off generally before 06Z. Expecting VFR conditions with SW winds at 5-10 kts to start. Shifting to the WNW/NW after 06Z around 5 kts. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night through Monday: VFR. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Increasing southerly flow late tonight. Seas of 2-4 ft. Am anticipating low clouds/stratus to spread across mostly the eastern waters and near the Cape/MVY/ACK. Anticipate the fog could be locally dense at times in spots, but generally will be in the 1-3 NM range. Friday and Friday night...High confidence. Increasing S/SW flow on Friday ahead of the incoming cold front. Should see wind speeds of 10-15 kts by the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kts. Any stratus/fog lifts during the morning. Could see thunderstorms approaching the waters during the afternoon. Some question if they hold together during the evening as the cold front is passing. Winds shift once the front passes through Friday night. Should see winds of 5-10 kts Friday night becoming W/WNW/NW late. Seas 2-4 ft. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/BL NEAR TERM...Belk/RM SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/BL MARINE...Belk/BL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
637 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Trough over the Ohio River Valley begins to push further south through the Short Term period. This will also push the cold front over CRP CWA further south into the Northern Ranchlands by this evening. Record PWAT values near 2.5 inches and CAPE values around 1500 J/kg are expected for the Ranchlands this afternoon. HRRR has isolated showers and thunderstorms being initiated in our northern counties from the convection currently over CRP`s southern counties and Gulf Waters. This activity, combined with the afternoon seabreeze, has caused isolated showers and thunderstorms to already form east of I-69E in Kenedy county. However, as diurnal heating dissipates tonight, most of the showers and thunderstorms will as well. Main impacts will be frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Nuisance flooding is possible today. Have high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s out west today with lows in the upper 70s as a few clouds linger through the night with a isolated rain chances still possible. Friday is forecast to be our best chance for rain over the next few days. Models have good agreement regarding a 30 to 60 percent POPs throughout the day. But, they are not in good agreement with where exactly these showers and thunderstorms will form. Right now, HRRR has a line of storms forming tomorrow afternoon in the Ranchlands and slowly dissipating as it moves south towards the Valley. The RGV does have a chance to see rain tomorrow as well, but the Northern Ranchlands will have the better probability. Since PWAT values are still expected to be near 2 inches, these showers could be heavy rain producers with localized nuisance flooding in low-lying areas with 1 to 2 inches per hour rainfall rates. High temperatures tomorrow will be not as hot due to increased cloud cover. Highs are forecast in the mid to upper 90s across Deep South Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Generally conditions look to be somewhat drier this weekend with a possible uptick in rain chances next week. Continued model differences in placement of mid-level features add uncertainty and low confidence to the forecast. Residual moisture from the expected Friday convection could linger into early Saturday before a mid-level ridge builds back into the region lowering the mean RH in the 500-300mb layer. Below 600mb sufficient moisture resides to get an isolated sea breeze shower or two going. Same goes for Sunday however GFS shows the mid-level dry air getting a little deeper, while the ECMWF`s wetter bias is rearing its ugly head and seems to be an outlier indicating much higher rain chances. Consensus shows 10-25 percent for the weekend and this what the previous and current forecast will trend with. Early to midweek, uncertainty remains in the air and will be a big factor as the ECMWF maintains a presence of the mid-level ridge over the CWA while the GFS backs off showing a weakening ridge. Both models suggesting a cold front moving into north central Texas Tuesday likely to become stationary with a general increase or pooling of moisture south of the front although the GFS seems to indicate a slower increase in moisture Monday and Tuesday with a better surge midweek. Model guidance along with the general consensus trends with slight chance of isolated sea breeze activity Mon-Tue with scattered convection Wednesday and Thursday. The afternoon forecast package does not deviate from this trend. Can not rule out any slow moving thunderstorm to produce localized heavy downburst. No big changes in the temperature outlook with this part of the forecast rather persistent and in good agreement among the latest model suite. Seasonal highs and lows can be expected with highs ranging from near 90 degrees at the coast, mid to upper 90s inland to the lower 100s far west. Lows range 75 to 80 degrees overnight lows. Heat indices range from 103 to 108 each afternoon. Expect temperatures to cool down after a douse of rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Satellite is showing BKN to OVC high clouds across all three TAF sites this evening in the wake of some storms that occurred earlier today. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period, except for in any heavier showers and thunderstorms that develop tomorrow, where MVFR conditions will be possible. Chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the airfields are low for tonight and then increase through the day tomorrow, with most activity expected in the afternoon. Outside any storms, southeast winds will become light tonight through Friday morning, then increase to become gusty by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Tonight through Friday Night: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the Short Term period with frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds being the main threat. Friday is forecast to be the best day for these to occur. Otherwise, seas remain low at 1 to 2 feet with mostly light southeast winds expected. Saturday through Tuesday:The persistent weak to moderate pressure gradient across the western Gulf of Mexico remains in place through the weekend and early next week. Seasonal light to moderate onshore flow and slight seas can be expected. Occasional increase in convection Sunday and and next week may allow for periods of fresh southerly flow and higher seas but not anticipating any long duration small craft advisory conditions. Any shower and especially thunderstorms will exhibit higher wind and produce rough seas along with lightning and torrential rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 94 78 94 / 30 50 10 20 HARLINGEN 77 94 76 95 / 30 50 10 10 MCALLEN 78 97 78 99 / 40 50 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 96 78 99 / 40 40 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 80 88 / 30 50 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 88 78 92 / 30 50 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Soria LONG TERM....59-GB AVIATION...69-Farris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1055 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... After a generally rain-free night, the passage of a weak cold front later Friday will touch off a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly Friday afternoon and evening. The weekend looks dry and seasonably warm, under the influence of high pressure over the western Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A potent looking shortwave lifting over the Mid Atlantic is supporting scattered convection this evening at the nose of associated low level jet over south central Pa. Have boosted overnight POPs above NBM to account for the passage of this feature. Latest SPC mesoanalysis and RAP forecast indicate overnight capes of 500-1000 J/kg over the southeastern part of the forecast area, where thunder will remain possible. Further north, only showers mentioned with POPs in the slight chance category. The weakening low level jet and associated chance of showers should pass east of the forecast area by dawn. Latest SREF and NAMNest support patchy valley fog late tonight, the result of a calm wind, gradually rising dewpoints and wet ground in spots. Tonight will be somewhat milder than recent nights, with lows by daybreak ranging from around 60F across the northwest mountains, to around 70F in the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, we`re still anticipating the development of scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms associated with the passage of a cold front. The parent shortwave and best large scale forcing is progged to pass north of the state and pwats not especially high, so expect coverage to be hit and miss, with the highest POPs across the northwest mountains, closest to track of mid level shortwave. In general, progged deep layer shear is weak and the severe weather threat low. However, slightly stronger mid level flow along the NY border indicates a marginal risk of strong-damaging wind gusts up there. Friday will be seasonably warm and sticky, with afternoon highs ranging near 80 over the Alleghenies, to about 90 in the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valleys. The weekend will be characterized by rising heights aloft, with a decaying surface front somewhere near the Mason- Dixon line. Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out either afternoon over the south- central mountains and the Lower Susquehanna Valley, we expect rain-free weather for the majority. Weakening convergence with the above mentioned frontal zone and a lack upper-level forcing should seriously limit convective potential. Saturday`s highs will range from the mid 70s over the northern mountains, to the upper 80s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Sunday will trend warmer, with highs ranging from the lower- middle 80s in the Alleghenies, to the lower 90s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement in developing a building upper ridge over the east coast into early next week, downstream of an upper trough moving into the upper Midwest. Ensemble mean 850mb temps rise to around 17-18C by Monday, supportive of highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Shower/storm chances look to increase by Monday as lead shortwave energy from the parent trough approaches western PA, with some terrain-induced convection also possible in an increasingly unstable airmass. Best chances for showers/storms are currently in the later Tuesday timeframe along/ahead of an approaching cool front. Will have to watch the potential for a cutoff low breaking off the mean northern stream trough and lingering to our west, which could heighten additional precipitation chances later next week. However, given the passing of the front and stout upper low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay providing cool/drier northwest flow, expecting at least a period of drier/cooler weather for mid-late week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widely scattered showers will move across the area overnight with only very brief reductions to MVFR possible. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail. With some rain at AOO, wouldn`t be surprised to see some fog develop toward daybreak Friday. An approaching front may be the focus for some afternoon showers and storms on Friday afternoon. Best chance looks to be across the central and northwest airfields with somewhat lower chances in the southeast. Prevailing VFR conditions with only brief reductions to MVFR possible. Outlook... Sat-Mon AM...No sig wx expected. Mon PM-Tues...Increasing chance of showers and storms with a cold front approaching. && .CLIMATE... It`s been a hot and dry month so far in Harrisburg... The average monthly temperature [through 8/24] is 78.5F or +2.8F above normal and would rank as the 2nd warmest August on record. The total monthly rainfall [through 8/24] is 0.82" or -2.07" below normal and would rank as the 4th driest August on record at Harrisburg. Hot temperatures and very little rainfall are forecast through the end of the month. Warmest August on record at Harrisburg: 1. 79.1F 2016 2. 78.5F 2022 (7 days left in the month) 3. 78.3F 2021 T4. 78.2F 1900, 1966, 2020 7. 77.7F 2002 Driest August on record at Harrisburg: 1. 0.53" 1995 2. 0.73" 1923 3. 0.81" 1909 4. 0.82" 2022 (7 days left in the month) 5. 0.93" 1977, 1957 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Guseman/Banghoff AVIATION...Banghoff CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
225 PM PDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .UPDATE...Updated Air Quality Issues Section... && .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue across the area through Friday. A cooling trend is expected to take place this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. A warming trend is expected to take place early next week with temperatures rising above climatological normals by Tuesday. Other than a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher Sierra this afternoon, dry weather will prevail across the area through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Upper high pressure over the Eastern Pacific is maintaining a very warm airmass over our area with a continuation of above normal temperatures and another afternoon with triple digit highs across the San Joaquin Valley, lower Sierra Foothills, Kern River Valley and the Kern County Deserts. A weak shortwave pushing into Norcal today has weakened the upper high enough for temperatures to cool a few degrees from Wednesday when much of our area approached dangerous heat levels. Visible imagery is showing some build-ups near the Sierra crest in Tulare County. HRRR is indicating enough instability and CAPE for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Sierra crest in Tulare and Fresno Counties this afternoon. Increased onshore flow on Friday will push out any mid/upper moisture east of our area on Friday which will inhibit mountain convection. A slight cooling trend is expected on Friday although temperatures will remain above normal for late August. SREF is showing a strong upper trough pushing into the PAC NW this weekend. A piece of shortwave energy from the trough is progged to drop southward off the CA coast on Saturday and Sunday and bring significantly cooler temperatures to our area with temperatures cooling down to sightly below seasonal averages by Sunday. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating most of the San Joaquin Valley has between a 50 and 70 percent chance of maximum temperatures below 100 DEG F on Saturday and a 90 percent or greater chance of maximum temperatures below 100 DEG F on Sunday. RH progs are showing very little in the way of moisture impacting our area this weekend so dry weather will likely prevail with skies remaining mainly clear. A period of increased winds is possible across the mountains and deserts of Eastern Kern County on Saturday afternoon and evening as p-grads strengthen. The medium range models are in excellent agreement in showing an upper ridge building in the Rocky Mountain region early next week and strengthening during the middle portion of next week with excellent ensemble agreement. This will provide for a warming trend to take place across our area next week with NBM guidance indicating daytime temperatures rising back to above normal levels by Tuesday and a return of widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible near the Sierra crest in Fresno and Tulare Counties through 01Z Fri with local mountain obscurations possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior through at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Friday August 26 2022... Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno... Kern and Tulare Counties... and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DAS pio/idss...MV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front across central Illinois will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions will return Friday. Slightly cooler air Friday will result in high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Boundary is still slowly moving south through central IL this evening with two main areas of scattered showers and storms. One in Champaign county that appears to be dissipating. The other area is in Sangamon county. Storms continue to develop northwest of Springfield and move east to southeast over the area. This may continue for a couple of more ours seeing the electrical activity is still present and the cloud tops are cold. HRRR model is now showing the showers and storms continuing beyond 10 pm so will be making adjustments to the pop/wx grids to reflect that. Update will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 A cold front resides just north of I-72 this afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorms expected to develop near the front. This should be most extensive early in the evening before slowly dissipating and migrating southward overnight. By Friday afternoon, the front should slip south of the central IL forecast area with dry conditions across the area. Low cloud cover behind the front looks to increase in northerly flow overnight, which should help keep temperatures mild and limit fog potential. Lows are forecast in the mid 60s tonight. A bit cooler temperatures are forecast for Friday as the slightly cooler air mass and morning cloud cover hold highs down to the lower to mid 80s most places. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Fair weather is expected through Saturday with high pressure behind the cold front dominating the weather. A high in the mid to upper 80s can be expected, with seasonable humidity. Thursday`s front will lift back north across the area Sunday, bringing slightly warmer temperatures and higher humidity, along with a chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early next week as a series of shortwaves move through. While timing and evolution of the pattern midweek is highly variable among models, it appears a cold front will push southward through the area midweek, ending chances for precipitation and starting a cooling trend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 VFR conditions are expected at PIA and BMI through the evening but MVFR vis and cigs are expected tomorrow morning through the morning hours as lower clouds arrive from the northeast. Vis will drop to around 5sm while cigs drop to 2kft. VFR conditions are expected in the afternoon. SPI, DEC, CMI will all have VCTS for 2-3hrs this evening as a slow moving front drops through the area. Then VFR conditions are expected through most of the night. CMI should see some 5sm due to fog, but SPI and DEC wont. MVFR cigs will also affect CMI during the early morning hours but then become VFR during the afternoon. Winds will be northwest to north at PIA and DEC, but southwest winds at SPI, DEC, CMI for a few more hours before the front moves through, then northwest to north winds expected the rest of the period. Wind speeds will less than 10kts through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Auten
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1108 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 As of 11 PM, a moisture gradient/gradient in PW remains near the TN and KY border and across the Lake Cumberland Region to the Cumberland Plateau area and portions of middle to eastern TN with some moisture transport into the TN border counties. Convection is occurring near or just south of the stateline from McCreary County west to Wayne and Clinton Counties with some lightning recently detected in portions of Fentress and Pickett Counties TN. Model guidance such as recent RAP shows continued border have additional moisture transport into the southwest portion of the area into the overnight. Based on radar trends and trends in convective allowing models, pops have been introduced into the TN border counties earlier compared to previous forecasts as isolated convection should spread east northeast overnight. A lull in chances for convection may occur for a time around or for a few hours after sunrise, before moisture increases from the west by late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 900 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 Cumulus has generally dissipate over the past few hours though a few cumulus and mid level clouds remain across portions of the southwest part of the CWA and in the vicinity of the I 64 corridor. Convection this evening has remained over portions of middle and eastern Tn to the NC mountains within a moisture/PW gradient. with weak sfc high pressure generally remaining dominant across eastern KY. Broad troughing remains across the eastern Conus though with generally westerly flow aloft at 500 mb though winds are a bit more southwesterly closer to the sfc at 700 mb and 850 mb. Further west and northwest of the area, a sfc low was tracking across the southern Great Lakes with a trailing cold front only making slow southeast progress. However, with the sfc high moving southeast of the area overnight, winds at least at 850 mb should become more south to southwest overnight and toward dawn. This should lead to the moisture gradient inching into the TN border counties overnight and lead to an increase in cloud cover and the possibility of isolated convection in the Harlan County to VA border corridor before dawn. Further moisture advection on Friday will lead to additional chances for convection across the CWA, mainly during the afternoon into the evening. Locations further north and northeast should once again experience valley fog under mostly clear skies and light winds as the pressure gradient at the sfc will remain rather weak. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 308 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 An upper trough over the eastern CONUS has begun to lift northward this afternoon, producing seasonably warm and humid conditions throughout eastern Kentucky. Concurrently, upper level ridging over the Rockies and Plains has started to propagate eastward, further aiding the height rises. To the south of the region, a shortwave disturbance has lifted a frontal boundary from the Gulf States into the lower Blue Ridge/Smokies this afternoon. Over the region, there is quasi-zonal flow aloft and light southerly flow at the surface. An embedded upstream shortwave and surface front will drop from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley late tonight through Friday, which could bring isolated to scattered showers/storms during the latter half of the short term period. Mostly quiet conditions are in place across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with temperatures currently sitting in the mid 80s. A line of upslope showers has formed along the lower Blue Ridge/Smokies early this afternoon. Additionally, a few stray showers and storms have begun to bubble up over far western Kentucky and southeastern Tennessee. Weak southerly return flow has caused a cu deck to infiltrate the southern half of the CWA. Despite the influx of cloud cover, the area is expected to remain dry for the remainder of the day and through the evening hours. Heading into the evening, the diurnal cu should begin to dissipate after daytime heating is lost. Valley fog is likely to form again tonight, but due to the moisture inflow from the aforementioned southerly winds, the intensity and coverage is forecast to be less than previous nights. A cold front approaching from the Midwest will cause an uptick in cloud coverage and PoPs starting early Friday AM, with increasing chances of PoPs (30 to 40 percent) through the afternoon/evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to occur between 18z and 00z, before dying off shortly after and exiting. Friday`s highs are forecast to reach the mid 80s, with lows ranging from the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 Upper level ridging will be in place across the Southeast and will extend northward through the Ohio Valley and into the upper Great Lakes. This will support high pressure at the surface which will in turn, keep conditions across the area mostly dry. There will still be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly along the higher terrain in the south/southwest during Saturday and Sunday afternoon when the greatest heating is expected. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon which may lead to a few more showers/storms but without any large scale forcing mechanism, these should remain widely scattered. Surface high pressure will also be building over the Midwest which will help support drier and much warmer conditions over the weekend. Highs are expected to rise into the mid 80s to around 90 with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Conditions will be warm but should avoid being unbearably muggy with lower dew points. Lows will fall into the low to mid 60s Saturday night and the mid to upper 60s Sunday night. The start of next week will usher in another pattern change as the ridging breaks down and disturbances move through the upper levels. Southerly/southwesterly return flow will increase as the surface high shifts to the southwest, near the North carolina/Virginia border. This will advect moisture from the Gulf northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. PWAT values will increase to between 1.5 and 2 inches on Monday and will remain near that range through the middle of the week. At the surface, a cold front will sit over the northern Plains and will progress through the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Models do show some disagreement in the cold fronts progression with the ECMWF being more progressive with its movement and the GFS having the front stall out to our north, along the southern Ohio Valley. Regardless, unsettled weather is expected with showers and thunderstorms possible late Sunday night through Wednesday night with the best chances for precipitation occurring during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s while overnight lows stay a bit warmer, in upper 60s, as moisture increases across the area. Wednesday will be a bit cooler with highs only reaching into the low 80s across most of the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 VFR was reported at issuance time and will largely prevail over the first 6 hours of the period. However, some deeper valley fog should develop by 4Z and increase in coverage overnight though an increase in low and mid clouds should result in fog becoming less prevalent toward 12Z in the Cumberland Valley as compared to the Liking, Big Sandy, and Kentucky River basins. Reductions in valley fog may be as low as the IFR or lower range at least at times during the 6Z to 13Z timeframe. Brief reductions to MVFR or lower could occur at some of the TAF sites between 8Z and 13Z, but confidence in this is lower than average. For now have some MVFR at LOZ which may be far enough north to be less affected by an increase in low clouds anticipated after 6Z near the TN border, with SJS and SME having a bit better chance of some brief reductions during the 9Z to 13Z period as compared to JKL and SYM. Any fog should lift and dissipate by 13Z to 14Z. Otherwise, some cumulus should develop by around 15Z or 16Z as moisture advection occurs ahead of a cold front and mid level clouds are also likely. Isolated to scattered convection is anticipated to develop by the last 6 hours of the period. Any of this could result in brief MVFR or lower reductions. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...LUEHRS LONG TERM...BATZ AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
813 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through tonight) Issued at 309 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a western ridge eastern trof configuration across N America. Shortwave swinging thru the trof aided shra and a few isold tsra across Upper MI over the last 24hrs. Locally hvy rainfall occurred with the most notable rainfall in a stripe across southern Schoolcraft County last night/early this morning where radar estimated 3.5 to more than 8 inches of rain. A rain gauge was located that backed up the over 8 inch radar estimation. Given the largely swampy land and very limited terrain elevation change in that area, there was no doubt a considerable amount of standing water, and probably quite a bit remains. With little population in that area, have not been able to obtain any reports of impacts from the hvy rain. With departure of the shortwave, shra have ended from nw to se today. However, ocnl -dz has been noted in the n wind upslope areas of n central Upper MI. Some partial clearing has occured over western Upper MI. Lake breeze component to the wind is currently leading to a convergence zone from near CMX ssw across western Upper MI. With clouds along that zone developing modest vertical extent, not out of the question that a -shra or a few sprinkles could briefly develop out of that. To the e and s, a few -shra may still develop across the s central and eastern fcst area over the next few hrs. Finally, sporadic -dz may linger for a little longer in the upslope areas of n central Upper MI. Otherwise, in the nw flow toward the Upper Great Lakes, a shortwave is noted over northern Manitoba. This wave is producing a few shra in Manitoba, and earlier today, some tsra were occurring as well. Some of this shra activity will approach Lake Superior tonight, but with the modest low-level jet associated with the shortwave and 850mb theta-e gradient both remaining off to the nw thru the night, don`t anticipate any shra activity spreading out over Lake Superior. Sfc high pres ridge currently extending from the Dakotas across northern Ontario will shift se and will cut across Upper MI by 12z Fri. With the rainfall that has occurred and the lack of strong drying today, expect some fog development tonight, at least across the interior w half of Upper MI which will end up under the ridge axis later tonight. In addition, we`re now into the more favorable longer nights of late summer when fog development more frequently occurs around streams/rivers/inland lakes and swampy areas due to their relatively warm water. Fog could be locally dense. Expect min temps in the 40s F across the interior w half, ranging up into the 50s F elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 Long term period on Friday looks to start off with a big ole surface high sitting on top of the Upper Great Lakes. 850mb temps look to range between 8 and 12C across the forecast area. This, coincident with mostly clear skies early on, should enable daytime temps to warm into the mid to upper 70s in the west and low to mid 70s in the east. Lingering moisture with the dinural heating should support fairweather cumulus clouds by afternoon and weak pressure gradient should support lake breezes as well. The high will shift into the lower and eastern Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. At this point, winds will become southerly along the high`s western flank and ahead of an approaching disturbance from the west. This will usher in a warmer and more moist airmass for the weekend which could support periods of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Activity looks mainly focused in the west half and over Lake Superior, but activity elsewhere can`t be ruled out. Additionally, an increasing LLJ is expected during the day Saturday could support some gusty winds. Mixing could bring down 20mph winds, with parts of Gogebic County potentially seeing some 30mph gusts. As the LLJ amplifies with the setting sun Saturday night, downslope areas like western Gogebic and near the lakeshores of Marquette County should expect to continue some of these gusty winds at times. Most folks should expect temps to top out near 80F on Saturday and low-mid 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows look largely in the low-mid 60s. The more humid conditions are expected to begin Sunday and Monday as the shortwave lifts into Ontario, another moves into the northern Plains, and another lifts northeast through Lake Michigan. There`s some uncertainty where the latter will move through Lake Michigan, but its possible we could see another wave of precip Monday ahead of the next wave tied to a cold front. The cold front looks to move through Tuesday, with cooler and drier air filtering in by late Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 813 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 Lingering low level moisture is contributing to continued MVFR conditions at KIWD and KSAW this evening and do not expect that to improve with the potential for radiation fog late tonight under calm winds. For now, will only bring visibilities down to MVFR at KIWD/KSAW late tonight, but would not rule out possible IFR or worse with future TAF updates for the Fri 08-12Z time frame. Any fog that does form though is expected to dissipate after sunrise. At KCMX, however, conditions are already at VFR levels and are expected to stay there. As mentioned above, winds will become calm overnight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 253 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2022 High pressure begins to dominate the region today, ushering in a period of light winds through at least early Saturday. As this high pressure system shifts east to the Lower Great Lakes Friday night, SW winds will increase Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The lake is nearing its seasonal max temperatures, so low-level stability may not cap the strongest winds from reaching the sfc. As a 40 kt low- level jet passes over the western half of the lake Saturday night, some 30 knot wind gusts will be possible Saturday night through Sunday afternoon - this is especially true at higher observation platforms. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...JTP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...JTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 ...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain today, better chance of thunderstorms over all areas tomorrow... Key messages: 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon over the mountains, and a few of these storms will move over into the high mountain valleys and San Luis Valley. 2) PM thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and then move over into the San Luis Valley and I-25 corridor during the late afternoon and eastern plains by later in the evening. 3) There is a slight risk of a stronger or possibly severe thunderstorm over the southeastern plains by late afternoon tomorrow. Main threat will be strong and gusty outflow winds to 50 mph or greater, and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Detailed discussion: Currently... Most of the thunderstorm development this afternoon has remained over the northern Continental Divide and an SPS has been issued for streamflow already for the southern Chalk Cliffs area due to some stronger thunderstorms which have remained nearly stationary over the area. This will continue to be the area most closely monitored throughout the afternoon. The La Garita Mountains, as well as the San Juans, and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains are also seeing a fair amount of convection currently building over the area, and some of these could get hung up on the mountains and cause concern for possible flash flooding for some of the burn scars. There are also some storms developing over Teller County and the Rampart Range/Pikes peak area. This could dirft over into the northern I-25 corridor and there is a slight chance that some of these storms could be on the stronger side for the next couple of hours. Other than torrential rainfall with some of the stronger storms, there could also be some gusty outflow winds to around 40 mph, as well as small hail and cloud to ground lightning. Thunderstorms should remained confined over the mountains for this afternoon, with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm to move out over the adjacent plains. Tonight... Any remaining isolated showers and storms this evening will continue to weaken with everything likely dissipating before midnight. One caveat is that the HRRR is showing some isolated PoPs over the eastern mountains in the early morning hours on Friday. The NAMNest 4km (which tends to usually be a little more aggressive with PoPs) doesn`t show as nearly as much reflectivity in the most recent model run. Considering this, confidence is low of there being a few isolated showers developing early in the morning over the eastern mountains and moving out over into the I-25 corridor with some residual moisture advancing in from the west due to convection from the previous day. These showers would be very high based and may not even reach the surface (be in the form of virga) if they were to occur. Skies otherwise should continue to break and become mostly clear for most locations throughout the night with diurnally driven winds expected across the entire CWA. Temperatures will cool into the 50s for most areas of the plains, and into the 30s and 40s for the higher terrain. Tomorrow... The ridge that is currently over the inner-mountain west with an upper level high centered over northern Mexico will continue to flatten slightly and allow for the monsoonal moisture plume at the 500 mb level to become expanded over southeast Colorado on Friday. This will allow for thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon over the mountains initially and then move over into the upper mountain valleys and San Luis Valley throughout afternoon and eventually into the I-25 corridor and over the Raton Mesa by late afternoon. Expect for storms to be possible over the eastern plains by the evening hours as they continue to track from the west. Looking at the latest CAMS, there still looks to be the most CAPE located over the southern mountains, although it is a little less than previous models have displayed, at around 1100 J/kg at best over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. The better shear and lapse rates remain up to the north over the Sawatch and Rampart Range of around 40 kts, with lapse rates generally between 8 and 9 C/km. However. CAPE is a little less, especially over the Rampart Range, with the Sawatch having the greatest at around 900 J/kg. Given these values, stronger storms are possible, yet severe storms are not anticipated over these areas. The stronger storms may produce some gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and torrential rainfall in a short period of time, which may impact the burn scar areas if any of the storms become hung up on the mountains and are near stationary with respects to storm motion. As these storms move over into the I-25 corridor by later in the afternoon, some of them will likely weaken a bit as they encounter a relatively less favorable environment right along the I-25 corridor, the exception will be northern I-25 corridor around the Palmer Divide and the southern I-25 corridor near Trinidad where the environment looks to be a little more favorable to sustain better convection. There are going to be better areas of CAPE down around the Raton Mesa area of over 1000 J/kg. Coupled with this, the lower levels look to destabilize as a southerly flow advects up some higher dewpoints and this may allow for the cap to break for certain locations over the central plains and aid in the further development of thunderstorms. Most of these storms should remain sub-severe, however and isolated stronger or possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out. Given the inverted-v profile soundings over the central and eastern plains at the time, the main threat accompanied with these storms is going to be strong and gusty outflow winds of up to 50 mph or greater, and possible hail up to 1 inch in diameter if the elevated core strengthens to 50 dbz or greater at or above the hail growth zone. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and expected to be mainly in the 80s and a few low 90s for the plains, and generally in the 70s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San Luis Valley, and 50s to 60s for high country. -Stewey .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Friday night-Sunday night...Latest models are fairly consistent on modest westerly flow with an embedded short wave translating across the region Friday night, with shortwave ridging in place across the region on Saturday before westerly flow increases again Saturday night and Sunday, as a stronger system translates across the Northern Tier and Northern Rockies Sunday night. With that said, still looks to be good chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain Friday afternoon and into the early evening, with the best chances then shifting out across the far southeast plains, where a few stronger storms could be possible, with convergence along lee trough/induced sfc low across the plains. Short wave ridging on Saturday helps to stabilize the plains, though there will be enough residual moisture to support scattered diurnal showers and storms over and near the higher terrain. While there remain some differences on strength and location of the Sunday system, most models are trending further north with this system, which could bring scattered showers and storms to areas mainly north of the Highway 50 Corridor Sunday afternoon and evening. Time will tell how this system evolves. As for temperatures, with the westerly flow aloft, at or above seasonal temperatures remain the rule, with highs expected to be in the 80s to mid 90s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Monday-Thursday...Model differences become more evident in the longer term forecast, as models do indicate broad upper ridging developing across the West Coast, with broad troughing in place across the East Coast. The GFS and Canadian runs, and to a lesser extent the GEFS ensemble mean, keep more energy in place across the High Plains, where as the ECMWF and the EPS ensemble mean, keep the prominent ridge further east across the Great Basin and into western Colorado, which would tend to keep things drier areawide. With said differences, have stayed with current bullish NBM pops, which keeps chances for showers and storms across the area through out the long term forecast. As for temperatures, despite location differences of the ridge, ensemble means are in agreement with keeping temperatures at to slightly below seasonal levels through the period, with the coolest readings across the plains later next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 324 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2022 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. There could be some SHRA and possibly TSRA in and around the vicinity of KALS throughout the evening hours. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria for KALS. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds at the terminal. There is much less of a chance for convection to be in the vicinity of KCOS and not expected to be in the vicinity of KPUB. Winds will be diurnally driven. There will be a better chance of convection in the vicinity of all terminals tomorrow, towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...STEWARD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
132 PM PDT Thu Aug 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts will continue through this afternoon. Moisture will continue to decrease Friday, making thunderstorm coverage more isolated and confined to the mountains. Cool and dry conditions for the weekend, with a gradual warming trend from the beginning to middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Forecast Highlights: *Flood Watch in effect through tonight. *Isolated thunderstorms in the mountains Friday. *Warming trend Monday through the middle of next week. As of 1 PM a few thunderstorms have developed over the mountains. The HRRR is showing more developing through the afternoon and drifting onto the desert mountain slopes, locally into the desert. A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight. Limited thunderstorm development is expected Friday, with isolated storms expected in the mountains. An incoming trough moving through the northwest will keep drier, westerly flow aloft through the weekend. Moisture levels continue to decrease Friday, with more noticeable drying on Saturday. Moisture will not make a comeback for the foreseeable future with dry conditions expected Saturday through at least next Thursday. Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend. A warming trend will begin Monday and continue through the middle of next week. High temperatures will peak at 5 to 10 degrees above average Wednesday and Thursday. Closer to the coast, expect areas of night and morning low clouds and fog to spread inland into portions of the western valleys at times. && .AVIATION... 251931Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT clouds AOA 12000 feet MSL today and early tonight. SCT low clouds with bases 1000-1200 feet MSL and tops to 1500 feet MSL over the coastal waters pushing ashore after 26/04Z this evening. Low clouds extending inland to just west of KRNM and just west of KONT also tonight into Friday. Local vis 3-5SM along inland edge of clouds. Risk of BKN low clouds at KSAN overnight is moderate to high. Confidence in 26/04z low cloud arrival time at KSAN is moderate. Mountains/Deserts...SCT locally BKN clouds AOA 12000 feet MSL through tonight. SCT TSRA will return to mountains and deserts until 02Z today. Bases around 8000 to 10000 feet MSL and tops to 40000 feet. Gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours will occur near TSRA. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A south swell with a long period will bring elevated surf and a high rip current risk for Friday through the weekend. The highest surf will be on south-facing beaches, mainly in Orange County where highest surf could reach 7 feet Saturday and Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn has been activated. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Flood Watch until 10 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
647 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Any residual showers and storms from this afternoon, should largely dissipate after sunset with the increase in capping from the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures tonight will remain near normal in the upper 60s to low 70s with generally light winds out of the east/northeast. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, in that if any shower/storms do form, they will be highly isolated and generally confined to the Northern Edwards Plateau and the I-10 corridor. Most hi-res guidance shows little activity across the area. Looking at model soundings, with decreasing moisture availability and a potential temperature inversion in the mid-levels, this looks to hinder development but there may be a few hours during afternoon peak heating where we could see some widely isolated development. The HRRR has been the most active with this diurnal activity with model soundings showing a largely uncapped atmosphere through the afternoon hours. In any case, it doesn`t look as though these will be very high topped showers/storms with much of the available instability and moisture generally below 600 mb. Flooding does not look to be a concern with these storms considering a more shallow moisture profile and overall less moisture to work with than we`ve seen over the past few days (indicated by high morning dew points mixing out and much lower pWats). Highs will start to creep up tomorrow afternoon with temperatures areawide reaching into the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 Expect mainly dry conditions along with near seasonal temperatures across West Central Texas this weekend. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across our southeast counties Saturday afternoon and across our eastern counties Sunday afternoon, but expect mainly dry conditions to persist. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s, with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. On Monday, the ECMWF strengthens an upper level ridge across the Great Basin region, while an upper level trough/low develops across the Rockies and slowly moves south toward New Mexico/West Texas through the middle of the week. This would result in good rain chances across West Central Texas, mainly beginning on Thursday. In addition, a weak cold front is forecast to move into the region Tuesday into Wednesday, which could result in additional lift for shower and thunderstorm activity. The 12Z GFS has trended a bit farther west with the aforementioned upper level low, bringing it south toward the Panhandle, before lifting it north toward the end of the week. Although it has trended a bit farther west, this solution is still much drier than the ECMWF. Given the continued uncertainty, opted to keep PoPs in the slight chance to chance category next week. Temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s, but the increased cloud cover and possible showers and thunderstorms will help to keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonal normals for the middle to latter part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022 VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Although a few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon across the southern terminals, coverage will be too sparse to consider mentioning in the forecast. Expect light winds the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 71 93 72 95 / 10 10 0 10 Junction 70 93 71 93 / 10 10 0 20 Brownwood 70 93 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Sweetwater 70 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 70 90 71 91 / 10 20 0 10 Brady 70 92 71 93 / 10 10 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...24
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