Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/11/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Clouds continue to increase over north central into east central
ND, with clear to partly cloudy skies holding on over much of the
west and south. Main adjustments this evening were to delay the
onset of precipitation over the west and tweaked sky cover a
little. Latest short range guidance is closer to 9-12 UTC for
showers developing over western into central ND. NAM guidance just
arriving is just as slow or a bit slower. Trended toward the
slower developing CAM guidance for a start and overnight shift can
adjust as needed as additional guidance arrives. It will remain
breezy out of the east to southeast over western ND tonight,
spreading into central ND Thursday.
UPDATE Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
High level cloudiness is beginning to spill over the western
ridge, into northern portions of the forecast area. Made some
minor adjustments to sky cover for this evening, otherwise no
changes to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The main highlight this period is increasing clouds and the
chance of rain returning to the area Thursday, with some
uncertainty.
Currently:
High pressure still sits over the Rockies, leading to a ridge over
the northern United States. Surface high pressure also sits over
Manitoba and into North Dakota. The pressure gradient is tighter
over the southwestern part of the state where air is getting
squeezed between the high pressure to the northeast, and low
pressure in Wyoming. For this reason, gusts around 20 mph are
happening in southwestern North Dakota today through this evening.
Tonight:
Winds should only calm to around 10 mph tonight even after the
diurnal heating stops due to the pressure gradient. Clouds will
increase overnight from north to south with an approaching
disturbance in the 500mb ridge and a surface low from the Rockies.
A skinny band of northwest to southeast orientated rain develops
over the west overnight, the current forecast is a slight chance
of rain, about 20 percent.
Thursday:
This band of rain will progress northeast through the day, the
highest chance of rain will be in the northwest at about 30
percent. Thunderstorms are possible only south and west of The
Missouri River where CAPE could exist, more on the uncertainties
below. Temperatures will range drastically from the upper 70s in
the northeast, to the mid 90s in the southwest, cooler in the rain
band.
Forecast Challenges:
* Hi-res models agree on the band of rain, but the ensembles vary
greatly on the amount of CAPE. They range from no CAPE to 1500
J/kg south and west of The Missouri River, with no CAPE
everywhere else. This would makes sense based on the surface
temperatures. Some of the hi-res models have isolated
thunderstorms pop up in the southwest, the percent of thunder
here is only around 15 percent and dies north and east of the
river. Again, we could either have CAPE leading to some
thunderstorms or no CAPE at all.
* Relative humidity from the RAP is dry at the 850mb level north
and east of the river. This could lead to the rain not even
reaching the surface, this is only one model but it further
backs up having PoPs only at 30 percent. This dry layer,
depending on its location, could be leading to the big
uncertainties in CAPE.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
More chances for showers and thunderstorms continue in the long
term, along with temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
More of a widespread rain chance (40%) continues through early
Friday morning as the aforementioned surface low moves off to the
east along with the upper level disturbance. Depending on how
long the rain lingers along with cloud cover, temperatures could
not reach the current forecast high. As of now, the west will
reach the low 90s as clouds exit to the east. The eastern area
will be in the lower 80s as cloud cover doesn`t leave until the
afternoon.
This weekend will see warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The west will be warmer with the thermal ridge touching
the west. The next round of showers and thunderstorms looks to be
on Sunday with another upper level disturbance in the ridge. Then,
everyday has at least a 20 percent chance of rain. The ridge axis
passes through Monday. Models have a different output on how the
upper level pattern looks like after that. Some have a very
diffluent flow over the Northern Plains, while others are just
northwest flow through Wednesday. With this pattern change
temperatures look to only be in the 80s for the first half of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
VFR conditions are expected this evening across the forecast area.
A band of isolated to scattered rain showers is forecast to
develop over western ND after midnight and spread eastward on
Thursday. Expect mainly mid level clouds and higher with this
system but there could be a band of low VFR or even MVFR clouds
where the main band sets up, Thursday morning. At this time
guidance is not indicating lower clouds at any one TAF site and
it`s too far out to mention in any TAF. We also did not include a
mention of showers as of yet at any TAF. We did add a scattered
low VFR layer Thursday morning at KXWA and KDIK to hint at this
possibility. Otherwise expect broken to overcast mid and high
level cloudiness with an increasing east to southeast flow.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
951 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of surface high pressure will bring partially clearing
skies to the region tonight along with areas of fog through sunrise.
A cold front is then forecast to track through the area during the
day on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
through the afternoon. Drier conditions and beautiful late summer
weather follows for the end of the week into the weekend with
unsettled weather possible again early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 945 PM EDT Wednesday...A long strand of cirrus clouds
has expanded across the North Country up to Quebec City which is
along the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Based on
ASOS, it also seems some mid-level clouds have persisted in the
northern Champlain Valley as well. With that, bumped up sky
cover. HRRR guidance suggests this area of high clouds should
gradually shift east over the next few hours. This could hamper
fog development initial development of fog over Vermont, but it
still seems likely to be east about sunrise, which should still
allow some development. Temperature-wise, not noting too many
reasons to adjust the forecast, but did massage the hourly
temperatures to slow the rate of cooling. The rest of the
forecast remains solid. Have a great night!
Previous Discussion...
Quiet and cool conditions are expected tonight into early
Thursday as a weak ridge of surface high pressure continues to
build over the region. Drier air aloft has slowly been eating
away at low level moisture across the region today, and will
continue to do so this evening into the overnight with slowly
clearing skies expected. As skies clear, expect areas of dense
river valley fog to form with boundary layer winds very light
and temps falling into the 50s.
After sunrise, a well defined surface cold front upstream across
central Ontario/Quebec this afternoon will be in the vicinity of the
Ottawa and St. Lawrence Valleys and is progged to track
southeastward through the BTV CWA through the day. With the parent
surface and upper level low well north of the region, this feature
lacks any real good upper level support, low level shear and surface
convergence so we`re not expecting a whole lot of fanfare with it`s
passing. Forecast sounding do show some tall skinny CAPEs up to 800
J/kg so some isolated thunder is possible, but nothing should become
strong enough to be severe. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Finally for Thursday night, any evening convection will diminish
behind the front and with the loss of surface heating with skies
clearing by midnight. Another cool night with temps in the 50s to
locally 40s in the Adirondacks is expected, and there shouldn`t be
much in the way of fog as the boundary should remain sufficiently
mixed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...With the cold front moving southeastward
and away from the forecast area, dry weather and subsidence are
expected to end out the week, with PoPs close to zero. Northerly
flow will send cooler air from Canada into the North Country on
Friday morning, which should provide a chill at first, but even the
afternoon temperatures are expected to be below average. 850 mb
temperatures are likely to be in the 6 to 9 degrees Celsius range,
with near 10 C in southeastern Vermont, where the Canadian air has
less time to impact. The GFS remains the most extreme with
temperatures, both in the cold air mass and the lingering warmth.
However, a layer of moisture in the 850 mb level and an upper-level
trough are anticipated to produce some stratocumulus clouds, capping
temperatures a bit. Clouds are likely to be the most widespread
along the international border, where moisture is highest, and
across eastern Vermont, where the trough will be heading. Went with
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and breezy in the Champlain
Valley.
PoPs will remain low throughout Friday night, with some concern for
fog as skies clear a bit, winds calm, and high pressure takes
control. Lowered temperatures a bit in the Adirondacks and southern
Vermont, accounting for most of the clouds staying north of these
areas. Lows in the 40s and 50s throughout the North Country on
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Still a pleasant outlook for the
weekend, with surface high pressure and dry weather. Aside from some
fair weather cumulus, there is a potential battle of high pressure
and lack of moisture against a 500 mb level cut-off low and its
cyclonic flow transporting moisture from the Atlantic to provide a
thicker cloud cover. Currently, it looks as though surface pressure
and terrestrial dryness will be enough to keep the weekend pleasant
and calm, with most of the atmospheric moisture staying to the east
of our forecast area. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s into
the 70s with light winds, at time from the north.
The start of next week could feature a beneficial soaker as
troughing persists with embedded shortwaves. Precipitable water
values rise to about 1.20 inches late on Sunday as PoPs increase
from west to east through Monday, topping out at 30-40% Monday
night, and increasing to 40-50% on Tuesday. Currently no thunder in
the forecast, but this will be something to monitor as the event
grows closer.
Highs are relatively unpredictable with a wide range of possible
temperatures. Extended MOS guidance varies greatly from 80 on the
ECMWF to 70 on the GFS for Burlington, Vermont, on Monday. This
peaks temperatures in the 70s for most of the forecast area.
Tuesday, kept temperatures on the lower end due to the expected rain
and potential clouds. The northeasterly flow could also become
fairly gusty through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR over the next 24 hours with some
valley fog expected to develop between about 06Z through 12Z. A
trough will move east into the region about 12Z, which could
help dispel fog a bit early at KSLK around 10 or 11Z. Ahead of
the front, winds will become southwesterly around 5 to 8 knots,
with ceilings about 4000-7000 ft agl. It seems a wind shift
just precedes precipitation, with the highest chances of rain
soon after winds become northwesterly about 5 to 8 knots. Have
mentioned some VCSH in northern New York between about 14Z and
20Z, and Vermont around 17Z through 00Z. Mostly VFR conditions
expected, but brief reductions in visibility down to 2-4 SM
possible in isolated thunderstorms tomorrow.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes/Lahiff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
715 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Showers and thunderstorms have begun developing ahead of the
approaching boundary. LAPS analysis continues showing CAPE values
between 1000-2500 j/kg across portions of the northern Coastal
Plains, northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads coupled
with PWAT values between 2-2.1". With the present instability and
moisture, an area of moisture convergence has also developed
across leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms. With the
HRRR and the HRW FV3 continuing to activity developing ahead of
the approaching boundary through midnight, increased PoPs across
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Subsidence over the area and mainly dry conditions this afternoon
will persist through early tomorrow morning with small chances
for isolated showers this afternoon across the Victoria Crossroads
and the Coastal Bend. Early tomorrow, a mid-level shortwave will
approach our CWA from the northeast increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms with isolated to scattered coverage
across most of South Texas tomorrow afternoon and numerous
coverage surrounding the Victoria Crossroads area. Expecting QPF
amounts ranging from a trace to around 0.12 inches with some
localized heavier amounts possible to around 0.50 - 0.70 inches.
Storm chances will linger into the overnight hours with moisture
continuing to increase well above 2.0 inches.
Temperatures today and tomorrow range from the low 90s to the low
100s. Heat indices both days of 105-109 degrees are expected to
stay below Advisory criteria.
With a full moon tonight, possibilities still exist for some minor
coastal flooding. However, with the P-ETSS verifying so well
lately, not expecting flooding to happen. Probabilistic guidance
has tide levels peaking near 1.5 ft MSL tomorrow and then slowly
declining each day after that.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
An inverted trough is expected over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
by Friday then move inland Saturday. With significant moisture
expected (PWATs nearing 2.3 inches across South Texas), expect to
see some convection develop. On Friday, this is most likely to occur
across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, with activity
moving inland on Saturday as the trough moves west. Lingering
moisture will lead to a slight chance of more showers and storms on
Sunday--particularly along the sea breeze. By Monday, things get a
little muddle in the forecast. The ECMWF continues to be the wetter
solution while the GFS develops a stronger ridge over the area. With
PWATs still progged to be at or just over 2 inches Monday, we surely
could see some more convection along the sea breeze on Monday. By
Tuesday, models agree that ridging will develop and moisture will
decrease once again.
A little rain is already good news, but wait! There`s more!
Temperatures will be a bit cooler through the weekend. High
temperatures Saturday and Sunday should hover just below or right at
100 degrees in the northern Brush Country, with generally low to mid
90s across the rest of the area. Heat index values will still be
somewhat elevated, maxing out around 105 Friday through
Monday then increasing to 105 to 109 through late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all sites through this
TAF cycle. Winds are expected to decrease tonight across all sites
and increase once again late tomorrow morning, however, winds
should not be as breezy as the last few days. Showers and
thunderstorms and are beginning to develop around VCT and are
expected to continue through the night as a boundary approaches
South Texas. Due to low confidence on the timing of when the
storms might actually impact the terminal, went with VCTS and
tempos for TSRA. Reduced visibilities and gusty winds to 20 knots
will be possible within any thunderstorms that impact VCT. For
all other sites, rain chances tonight will be slim with chances
increasing late tomorrow morning, mainly across the eastern sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Weak onshore flow becoming weak to moderate this afternoon then
becoming weak flow from the southwest. Tomorrow morning weak and
variable flow will persist through the evening. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow morning will become scattered in
coverage over portions of the Gulf waters through the afternoon
and evening hours before diminishing. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to return after midnight
early Friday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday through Saturday. Convection
will redevelop again on Sunday before ending Monday as high
pressure builds in across the area. Generally light to moderate
onshore flow will persist from Friday through next week, though
winds could become gusty in and around any thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 77 95 77 94 / 0 30 20 60
Victoria 76 93 75 93 / 50 60 40 80
Laredo 78 101 79 100 / 0 20 20 40
Alice 74 98 74 99 / 0 30 20 60
Rockport 81 94 80 91 / 20 40 30 70
Cotulla 77 101 79 101 / 0 30 30 40
Kingsville 76 98 76 97 / 0 30 10 50
Navy Corpus 81 90 81 88 / 0 30 20 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JCP/84
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
551 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Water vapor showing a nicely defined wave moving westward through
the heart of the CWA late this afternoon. This combined with
strong heating and moisture advection with the next push of the
monsoon has created some beefier storms over Eagle County which
were drifting toward the Grizzly Creek area. Decided to go with a
Flash Flood Watch through the evening with a threat of at least
0.5 inch of range in half of an hour.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The area of high pressure that has been parked squarely overhead
for the last several days has finally moved off to the north and
east. In response, prevailing flow has shifted to an east and
southeast direction on the western periphery of the high. This is
allowing for the erosion of mid-level dry air as monsoonal
moisture slowly makes its triumphant return. GOES satellite
imagery reveals a fairly large scattered to broken cumulus field
perched atop the major mountain ranges this afternoon, but so far
only the updrafts in the western San Juans have managed to break
the cap. This matches up well with the latest RAP analysis which
shows 1000 to 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and negligible SBCIN centered
across southwest Colorado. The resulting isolated to scattered
showers and storms will carry a brief heavy rain, gusty wind and
small hail threat on the western fringes of the San Juans before
weakening or outright collapsing once they drift eastward into the
lower valleys below. As the afternoon progresses, HRRR guidance
indicates some of the higher terrain near and north of I-70 may
get in on the action too, though convection isn`t expected to be
as "robust" there. Elsewhere, a partly to mostly sunny day is in
progress with temperatures that will top out roughly 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early to mid August.
Most convection will diminish soon after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. However, short range guidance has been fairly
bullish on the maintenance of some shower and thunderstorm
activity across west-central Colorado and eastern Utah during the
overnight hours. Subtle perturbations aloft combined with
undisturbed instability and the slightest hints of a southerly
nocturnal low-level jet support this scenario and so the latest
gridded PoPs follow suit. Any lingering showers should finally
call it quits by daybreak and leave most of the forecast area dry
to start the day on Thursday. I say "most" because I`m sure there
will be at least 1 shower somewhere in the CWA at 6 or 7 AM that
will try to make a fool out of me.
The rest of the day on Thursday will likely follow a similar
progression as today: likely dry to start, then showers and storms
start bubbling up late morning into the early afternoon hours.
The difference between today and Thursday, however, will be storm
coverage and intensity. As more monsoonal moisture works into the
region and expands northward, so, too, will the footprint of
showers and thunderstorms. More fuel to work with means that heavy
rain, gusty outflow winds, small hail and frequent lightning will
be more of a concern than today. East to west and southeast to
northwest flow will add another layer of complexity and may lead
to more problems than typical. Time will tell on that front.
Otherwise, another warm and partly sunny day on tap for those who
don`t manage to see a shower or storm. Temperatures will continue
to run near or slightly above average. Similar to tonight, showers
probably linger into the overnight hours Thursday night before
diminishing towards daybreak Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022
High pressure tracks a bit farther east over the central High
Plains Friday where it will remain quasi-stationary throughout the
medium range period. As a result, mid-level flow will continue
from the southeast over the southern zones, and from the south
elsewhere across the forecast area. This will keep precipitable
water (PW) levels elevated across the region, though the tap of
deep subtropical moisture will stay west of the Green River and
Lake Powell through Sunday. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain each day beginning late in the morning and continuing into
the evening to end out the week. Some nocturnal activity is
possible, though synoptic models struggle with these details, even
in the near term. Since moisture levels will generally range
between 0.75 and 1", in flow with a southerly component,
temperatures are expected to remain at or above seasonal norms
this weekend.
However, temperatures will be cooling just a bit early next week
as an inverted trough makes its way northward across the Great
Basin Monday. As this system moves up the western flanks of the
central Plains high, flow picks up a more westerly component
aloft, especially over northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. This
will bring deeper moisture to the region resulting in both
increased areal coverage and intensity of developing
thunderstorms. Models diverge with respect to evolution of the
inverted trough Tuesday into Wednesday. The ECMWF, for instance,
leaves the weakened trough over the Great Basin, while the GFS
positions the high over the Plains farther south leaving the
trough overhead with another high over the northern Intermountain
region. However, despite differences, all operational runs
indicated the first half of the coming week will remain active
with daily and showers and thunderstorms and some persistent
nocturnal moist convection as well. Expect highs to run just a bit
below to near normal early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Convection will impact several TAF sites through the evening hours
as monsoonal moisture makes a push back into the area. KEGE...KTEX
and KRIL have the highest probability to be impacted by gusty
outflow winds but low probability of below VFR conditions. Storms
are likely to keep a westward drift through the late evening hours
and bring some light precipitation amounts to some of the western
TAF sites. However VFR should prevail through the next 24 hours.
Another round of storms can be expected on Thursday afternoon.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ008-010-
013.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
859 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Narrow W-E oriented axis of instability with MLCapes 500-1000
J/KG extends from near Ludington west across central WI. This is
just ahead of the sfc front which is now located along the U.S. 10
corridor. RAP guidance keeps the instability mainly out over LK
MI as the front continues southward tonight, suggesting any
thunder risk will continue to be limited to the nearshore area
and the coastal communities. Mainly just showers expected inland
but coverage only widely scattered at best. Will continue the
theme of only 20-30 pops tonight with the frontal passage.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Upper flow pattern across the CONUS undergoes amplification with
a western ridge/eastern trough regime that persists through next
week. The trough digs into the Great Lake tonight, driving a cold
front through. There is low level convergence along the front but
moisture is rather limited and POPs are correspondingly low with
only slight chance POPs.
A better chance for rain comes over the weekend with a shortwave
trough rounding the top of the western ridge. There is isentropic
ascent in an area of warm advection ahead of surface troughing
combining with low level jet and increasing moisture transport.
Showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage
across MN-WI Saturday then propagate southeast along 1000-500mb
thickness contours or even due south from effects of the LLJ.
Once the sfc trough moves off to the southeast, generally dry
weather is expected next week, although lapse rates could be steep
enough to touch off a few showers Monday afternoon with a sharp
H5 trough axis or upper low moving across eastern Lower Michigan.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 756 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Thursday. About a 4-6
hour period of BKN cloudiness around 5000-6000 ft with perhaps a
shower or two is expected late tonight into early Thursday
morning as a cold front slips south through the state. Otherwise
generally clear skies on either side of the front.
Light west winds shifting northeast after fropa overnight with an
hour or two of 10-15 kt winds possible immediately behind the
front before going light again. On Thursday the winds will
increase out of the north to 10 to 20 kts by afternoon, although
higher speeds are expected along the lakeshore including MKG.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
Winds and waves will increase on Thursday with hazardous
conditions for small craft and swimmers during the afternoon and
evening. North winds will create dangerous longshore currents and
structural currents on the north side of piers/breakwaters.
Conditions will improve by Friday as the surface high pressure
moves overhead.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late
Thursday night for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
907 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will slowly weaken tonight as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the
area on Thursday and settle south of the region by Friday, with an
additional reinforcing cold front moving through from the north by
Friday night. Cooler and drier high pressure will arrive for most of
the weekend, but with moisture returning early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Evening Update...Showers and thunderstorms remain relegated south of
the FA associated with an enhanced sea-breeze front. The latest HRRR
is catching on to this activity and now brings storms to the srn
zones btw 02Z-03Z. Have kept the nrn zones with slight PoPs as isol
-shra is popping up in a highly moist BL...and added chance PoPs
thru 06Z across the srn FA to account for the anticipated convec
coverage. Not expecting really strong storms, but a few lightning
strikes are possible north toward the I-85 corridor into the early
overnight. Dense fog still looks likely across the NC mtn valleys,
including KAVL, and across the I-40 and before daybreak. The
Charlotte metro area may also be under the gun for dense fog in the
morning depending on how much the upper debris clouds dissipate.
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: Convective activity is still expected
to gradually spread eastward over the next few hours with new cells
likely to fire off over the higher terrain and foothills as well.
Coverage looks best across western NC, with lower coverage across
western SC and NE GA. WPC has the mountains in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall today, with a marginal risk east of the mountains
for the majority of the fcst area. This makes sense as 0-6 km bulk
shear values will be around 5 knots or less leading to slow storm
motion. Heavy downpours that sit or train over an area for an
extended period of time have the potential to produce a localized
flooding risk. The overall severe threat today looks similar to what
we have seen the last few days, low with isolated severe storms
possible. With SBCAPE values ranging from 1000-1200 J/kg, damaging
wind gusts will be the main potential threat with any severe storm
that develops. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will remain centered
over the western Atlantic while a quasi-stationary frontal bndy
persists to our NW. This pattern will allow SWLY low-lvl flow to
continue, priming the western Carolinas and NE Georgia with ample
moisture thru the near-term period. Tonight another round of convection
could make a run for the mtns ahead of the FROPA. Activity looks
to impact the NC mtns mainly after midnight, possibly lasting into
daybreak Thursday. So, maintained chance PoPs into tonight across
the mtns. Expect another round of fog and low stratus across the NC
mtns and foothills. Lows will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Wednesday: A trof across the Great Lakes and
Northeastern states will amplify late in the week pushing a cold
front through the area. This front will lead to the chance of
showers and thunderstorms well into the night on Thursday night,
possibly lingering into early Friday in spots. Once the front clears
the area on Friday, expect a slightly cooler and much more
comfortable air mass for the weekend. Expect lows in the 50s
Saturday morning in the mountains and in the lower to middle 60s in
the Piedmont areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Wednesday: The Northeastern trof will continue to
amplify through this period leading to northwest mid level flow
through the period. There will be some energy moving through the
trof with associated cold fronts passing through the area. This will
lead to a chance of showers and storms early next week, but overall
moisture appears limited with this system. Temperatures should be
near normal to a little below normal for Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has diminished across the area with
little chance of redevelopment thru the evening and overnight period
at any TAF site. Plenty of debris clouds wafting in from the north,
which may inhibit fog formation east overnight while KAVL and KHKY
have a good chance of IFR or lower VSBY before daybreak. Afternoon
convection develops ahead of a cold front and the better signals are
noted across the NC zones, so have Prob30 TS at KAVL, KHKY, and KCLT
into the later evening. Coverage and intensity looks more uncertain
across SC so will go with a VCSH for now at these terminals. Winds
remain aligned sw/ly ahead of front outside the mtns, while KAVL
winds setup nw/ly thru the period.
Outlook: Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in the mtn
valleys and wherever appreciable rain fell the previous day. Shower
and thunderstorm coverage, and associated restrictions, will increase
along a cold front Thursday into early Friday. Drier conditions are
expected this weekend behind the front.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...SBK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
The main concern going into the evening and overnight hours will
be a line of strong thunderstorms moving north to south throughout
the region. Currently have the storms covered in the TAFs with a
TEMPO group, and this includes winds up to and sometimes exceeding
30 knots along with brief MVFR visibilities. After the main line
of storms pass through, showers will linger behind it till around
06Z before dissipating. Expect winds to become light and variable
by this time as well. Winds will initially start out light and
northerly on Thursday morning with the boundary to the south of
the area sites. Winds become southeasterly in the afternoon once
the sea breeze pushes in. High resolution models depict scattered
showers/thunderstorms developing all across Southeast TX around
19Z-20Z. This could follow a somewhat similar pattern to today`s
convection where a line of storms eventually develops, so this
will be something to monitor over the next few model runs/TAF
packages.
Batiste
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 323 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Busy period in the short term and a fair amount of uncertainty.
Currently have scattered showers at the coast associated with the
sea breeze. Another line of convection a little stronger poised
to the NW associated with a boundary pushing SEWD. Some consensus
in the convective allowing models that this boundary and
associated lines of storms will push from NW to SE across the area
late this afternoon and evening...reaching Bryan College Station
around 6 pm...Houston closer to 8 pm and if it holds together
reaching the coast between 10 pm and midnight. These times give or
take an hour or so. Expect brief heavy downpours and some gusty
winds with this line. Severe winds unlikely but some strong gusts
possible.
Forecast tomorrow very tricky. National Blend of Models which
weigh the synoptic models have rain chances in the likely to
categorical range. But the HRRR would suggest far less coverage
over land with the boundary pushing far offshore. For now carrying
mid range chance POPs undercutting the model blends some. Will
still likely see some development but not as much as the synoptic
guidance is suggesting.
Reilly
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Friday will see these heightened rain chances continue as
shortwave energy rounds the bottom of the mid to upper level ridge
over the Central Plains/Rockies, moving through SE Texas. Forcing
from this shortwave will help bring scattered to numerous shower
and thunderstorms during the day, especially as it works in tandem
with an 850mb inverted trough. PWATS sit in the range of around
2.0-2.3" during the day, which falls above the 75th and even the
90th percentile for this time of the year. Sounding
characteristics indicate that these storms will be efficient rain
producers, with a deep warm cloud layer nearing 10kft and high
moisture throughout the mid levels. Cloud layer winds also are on
the weaker end, generally staying under 15kts throughout the day
which may produce slower storm motion. Despite the potential for
heavy rain, soil moisture is exceptionally low across the region,
so these storms will likely provide some much needed relief from
these dry conditions. That being said, WPC still has our area
under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, mainly along the
coast where conditions are most favorable. Abundant cloud cover
and added rainfall from these storms will also greatly work to
limit diurnal heating and keep temperatures low throughout the
region, with highs in the upper 90s inland to mid 80s along the
coastline.
Rain chances begin to fall as we head into Saturday as subsidence
increases in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. Though, PWATS
in the range of 1.8-2.3" still gives us a good shot at rainfall,
especially with a weak 850mb inverted trough still in place
overhead. That being said, temperatures will slowly be on the rise
for the days following as the mid to upper level ridge shifts over
the Central/Southern plains. 850mb will pick up to around 20-23C,
which will bring highs back into the mid 90s to lower 100s across
the region. Lack of upper level support with weak capping during the
afternoon hours will put us back into a typical summertime pattern
though midweek, with PWATS dropping to around 1.5-1.9".
Guidance currently depicts a weak backdoor frontal boundary nearing
the region Wednesday afternoon, with an additional boundary setting
up near the TX/OK panhandle in response to another mid to upper
level shortwave trough over the Central Plains. Though, don`t get
your hopes up, as guidance continues to keep these features beyond
day seven.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail over the
next several days with seas sitting around 2-3 ft. Caution flags
may be needed during the overnight hours with nocturnal effects
bringing increased wind speeds near 15kts at times. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the coast tonight. Rain
chances will increase on Thursday and into the weekend as weak
disturbances aloft pass over the region.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 97 77 96 76 / 60 30 30 50 20
Houston (IAH) 75 93 75 92 74 / 80 60 50 80 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 81 88 80 / 40 50 60 80 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The RAP and NAMnest continue to suggest an isolated thunderstorm
chance across nrn Nebraska this afternoon and this evening. The
focus is a weak frontal boundary. The forcing, instability and shear
are weak like Tuesday.
The short term model blend plus the RAP model was the basis for
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s Thursday. Warmest highs are
expected across the north, just south of the cold front across the
Missouri basin in SD. Temperatures aloft aren`t particularly warm,
just 12C-14C at h700mb but the RAP and the NAM model soundings show
mixing heights tapping into warmer air above that layer at 600mb.
Since yesterday`s forecast highs were too low by a few degrees, this
forecast would seem warranted.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
An upper level ridge centered over Colorado and Wyoming this
morning will build very slowly east and southeast and be centered
across KS Monday. The GFS and ECM are in very good agreement
shifting the associated subtropical plume of upper level moisture
into Nebraska where is will reside Monday and Tuesday. It is during
this time that chance POPs are in place. WPC suggested rain totals
of up to 1 inch. Locally heavier amounts would seem likely given
the caliber of moisture- PWAT around 1.75 inches in the GFS.
Winds aloft will be weak, 15 to 30 kts at h500-h300mb, supporting
heavy marginally severe thunderstorms.
Until a cold front drops into Nebraska late Sunday, hot temperatures
will continue across swrn Nebraska. The models continue to flirt
with a frontal boundary hanging up across nrn Nebraska and this
could begin as early as Friday evening or perhaps even as early as
late Friday afternoon. The temperature forecast across the south is
more certain with south winds continuing through Sunday.
The blended forecast suggests highs in the 90s to around 100 through
Sunday across the south. Highs across the north peak Friday and then
cool about 5 degrees. This area will be in easterlies Saturday and
Sunday which should limit vertical mixing producing cooler highs.
The potential for record highs is uncertain. Temperatures aloft at
h700 are in the low to mid teens Celsius but highs will be
dictated by vertical mixing, potentially to 600mb or higher which
would produce highs warmer than predicted- possibly records. It
will be interesting to see what happens.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will
increase tomorrow afternoon out of the south with gust of 20 to 25
kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
415 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for thunderstorms over extreme southeastern Washington
and the north Cascades this evening. Thunderstorm chances will
increase across north-central Washington overnight. Additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast for portions of
the region for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will
remain very warm through Friday with highs in the upper 80s and
90s. After a brief cool down into the 80s this weekend, hot
weather is forecast to return next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday night: The Northwest is sandwiched between
a deep upper level low pressure system off of the northern Oregon
coast and strong high pressure ridging over the central Rockies.
Southerly flow will pump moisture northward across the Inland
Northwest resulting in a high unstable atmosphere. As such, dew
point temperatures currently stand in the mid to upper 50s across
the region, which is quit juicy for early to mid August. Mesoscale
analysis off of SPC`s page indicates surface based CAPE values of
over 500 J/kg region wide. Cumulus is beginning to bubble up over
portions of eastern Washington, but this is being capped by
roughly 40+ J/kg of CIN. There is also a lot of high cirrus
streaming across the central to northern portions of the Idaho
Panhandle that will make it difficult for surface based convection
to fire over this portion of the region. CIN is weaker over the
higher terrain of eastern Oregon and thunderstorms (some turning
severe) are expected to push up into extreme southeastern
Washington through the late afternoon and evening hours today.
Surface based instability over northeast Oregon is greater with
CAPE values approaching 2,000 J/kg. Storms will be moving into a
less favorable environment for developing convection as they push
into southeast Washington. With that said, there is a concern for
gusty outflow winds from storms and these outflows would be
capable of popping up storms further north across our area.
Another area to watch for surface based convection where the CIN
is a bit weaker and upper level dynamics a bit more favorable will
be over the north Cascades. So far the cumulus development there
is minimal, but that could change as we move into the early
evening hours. Then the focus will shift to elevated convection
along a mid level boundary that is expected to stretch across
central Washington. The latest runs of the NAM and RAP indicate
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPEs developing from around Wenatchee to the
Methow Valley and Okanogan Valley/Highlands after midnight
tonight. There isn`t a lot of forcing to work with to get
convection going, but I believe there will be just enough for
thunderstorms to develop late tonight. This elevated convection
will occur over a relatively narrow strip with storms capable of
producing frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty
outflow winds. Lightning may result in new fire starts. We have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warnings with this
threat continuing till about noon on Thursday.
The synoptic level pattern will change little Thursday into
Friday. The higher terrain Thursday afternoon will see the best
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Best instability at mid
levels shifts more into the Panhandle Thursday night into Friday
morning where an isolated threat of nocturnal thunderstorms is
possible. This isolated thunderstorm threat will continue over
mostly extreme eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle
through Friday night. The main concern will continue to be for new
fire starts from lightning. Southerly winds will also become a
bit more breezy Thursday into Friday, but not strong enough to
meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions. /SVH
Saturday through Wednesday: Ensembles suggest Saturday`s upper
level flow remains southwest between a negatively tilted open wave
over the British Columbia Coast and a negatively tilted ridge more
or less generally oriented over Central Montana and up across
Alberta. This flow seems void of significant disturbances so the
forecast remains dry however surface winds appear to be a bit robust
from the southwest and somewhat gusty as if a dry cold front of
sorts may get dragged north/northeast in this flow. By Sunday the
earlier mentioned open wave is expected to have moved northeast and
away from the area which still allows for a slight southwest flow
and perhaps a subtle increase in 500mb heights essentially allowing
for similar conditions as Saturday. Monday thru Wednesday ridge
amplification is expected to take place and is most apparent in the
return of hot temperatures with dry conditions. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: Moisture streaming up from the south will keep the
potential for not only clouds but some showers and thunderstorms
at times for the next 24+ hours. Confidence has increased that
KLWS would be most likely to see TS or VCTS this evening...with a
small chance of it moving north toward KPUW. Gusty outflow winds
are possible from any storms that form.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 91 63 96 61 87 / 10 10 20 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 61 91 61 96 59 87 / 10 10 20 20 10 10
Pullman 58 88 58 91 56 83 / 20 10 20 0 10 10
Lewiston 69 95 68 99 67 92 / 30 10 20 10 10 10
Colville 55 91 53 96 53 89 / 20 20 10 20 10 10
Sandpoint 60 91 58 93 57 86 / 20 10 20 20 20 10
Kellogg 66 89 67 93 63 84 / 10 0 20 10 30 10
Moses Lake 63 93 61 97 58 90 / 10 0 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 68 94 66 96 63 88 / 20 0 0 10 10 10
Omak 64 93 63 98 61 93 / 20 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 AM to noon PDT Thursday for Colville
Reservation (Zone 702)-Foothills of Central Washington
Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
Red Flag Warning until noon PDT Thursday for East Washington
North Cascades (Zone 698).
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
948 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, moving slowly
southeast through North Carolina Thursday through early Friday. A
secondary cold front will drop through the region late Friday. A
cooler and less humid air mass will build in from the north for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 948 PM Wednesday...
The latest surface analysis shows that the front has sagged further
south across southern AR but yet arcs up to the north-northeast over
southern OH and southern PA/southern NJ. A Piedmont trough was still
evident across western NC and portions of VA. Most of the convection
from earlier this evening has largely dissipated. However, lingering
convection persists across the northern Coastal Plain in response to
a possible weak MCV/mid-level shortwave and residual outflow draped
across the northeast Piedmont into the central Coastal Plain. Would
expect convective activity to continue to weaken with time over the
next few hours with increasing stability and weak upper-level
forcing over the area. The best chance of storms, until about 05-
06Z, will be over the northern Coastal Plain, between RWI and
Roanoke Rapids, where the MCV and outflow is present. Most CAMs show
storm activity in this area dissipating by 06Z, with largely dry
conditions thereafter. Some convection is currently moving north
over southern SC, but the last few runs of the HRRR show this
dissipating also, likely due to the stability and lack of forcing
aloft. Guidance continues to show low chances of fog/stratus by
morning Thursday, but can`t rule out some low clouds/fog over the
northern Coastal Plain where rain/storms linger with low-level
moisture. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to middle
70s, except some upper 60s over the northeast Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain under rain-cooled outflow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...
A long-standing pattern since the end of July, one characterized by
a trough from the OH Valley to the lwr MS Valley and flanked by
ridges over the wrn N. Atlantic and Four Corners, will be in
transition this period. That trough and considerable moisture/
cloudiness above 700 mb, and likely to include at a least a few
small MCVs from convection extending this afternoon across the TN
Valley and srn Appalachians, will move from the w-cntl Carolinas and
TN Valley Thu morning to the coastal Carolinas Thu evening. While
those smaller MCVs may locally enhance ascent, synoptic height falls
related to the trough will be maximized over cntl NC early in the
day and prior to peak diurnal heating. Meanwhile, significant
longwave trough amplification will occur just upstream, from QC swwd
into the cntl Appalachians through 12Z Fri. Associated, seasonably
strong height falls (30-50 meters at 500 mb) will overspread cntl NC
late Thu night-early Fri.
In the low-levels, a synoptic front now over the Mid-Atlantic from
srn NJ, wwd across MD, and nrn WV, will have moved little by 12Z
Thu. It will move slowly southeast and across VA Thu afternoon and
evening and into cntl NC overnight Thu. A broad, pre-frontal trough
will precede the front and extend across NC through the day-evening.
Although cntl NC will remain in the warm sector that has supported
temperatures mostly in the 90s this month, the aforementioned
considerable multi-layer cloudiness will significantly hinder
insolation and diurnal destabilization. As such, high temperatures
are likely to be less hot/closer to average and range from mid 80s
across the nrn Piedmont to lwr 90s through the Sandhills and srn
Coastal Plain. This limited heating/destabilization, along with the
possibility for a period of subsidence during peak heating between
the two troughs noted above, casts uncertainty to the coverage of
showers and storms, which appear at this time to be less than
previously anticipated at least through the evening.
Whatever convection that does develop will likely linger or
redevelop through most of the night across the srn half of cntl NC,
where moisture and influence from the longwave trough and low level
frontal zone will remain maximized through the night. Meanwhile,
drier and more stable air characterized by temperatures and
dewpoints in the 60s, and partial clearing, will settle sewd and
into the nrn Piedmont by Fri morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...
A second cold front will push southeast across the region Friday,
with areas south and east of the Triangle having the best chance of
a shower or thunderstorm through the evening. A shortwave trough
will also dig across the region through the day, helping to provide
better instability aloft. Cold air advection behind the front will
keep afternoon temps 5-10 degrees below normal for the northern half
of the region, while areas near the SC border will remain near or
slightly below normal. Dewpoints will still be in the mid to upper
60s, however areas near the VA border with the lower values will
have afternoon temps feeling more like the upper 70s.
Heights aloft remain low with continued northwesterly flow for the
weekend. Surface high pressure across the OH Valley on Saturday will
build south across the Blue Ridge on Sunday. Continued northerly
flow will transport a much drier airmass across the area, with
dewpoints in the 50s on Saturday. The high building to our south on
Sunday will switch winds to southerly, but only raise dewpoints
slightly to near 60 degrees. Highs in the low 80s N to upper 80s S
and low dewpoints will make it feel much nicer outside compared to
how it has been much of the summer. Highs only increase a few
degrees on Sunday. A shortwave digging across the region on Sunday
will create a small chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late
in the day/evening. EPS ensemble members are in good agreement on
this, however other ensembles are not as confident.
Early next week will become more active as a deep low dives south
towards the Mid-Atlantic and a few shortwaves round the low and move
across central NC. Additionally, a cold front will move southeast
across the region on Tuesday, creating additional possibilities of
precipitation. Dewpoints will increase back to the mid-60s through
the period, with highs remaining just above or just below normal.
Ensembles are looking more dry for Wednesday as surface high
pressure builds into the north behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
There is moderate to high confidence that primarily VFR conditions
are expected at all terminals through most of the TAF period. Based
on latest satellite/radar trends in the last 2-3 hrs, showers/storms
have largely dissipated across GSO/INT and partly RDU in the wake of
a southward moving outflow boundary. Convection at these terminals
is likely to be minimal at best, especially GSO/INT with more stable
air over the Triad. At FAY, there remains the chance of some VCTS
for the next few hours as they remain in the warm sector, but
confidence on any storms reaching the terminal is low. The highest
probability of storms in the next few hours will be at RWI with a
southward progressing outflow out of VA and northeast NC. As a
result, have kept a TEMPO for gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions.
Showers/storms should exit RWI around 03-04Z, with VFR at all
terminals overnight. Guidance continues to favor little in the way
of low stratus or fog so no restrictions are forecast overnight.
Showers and storms will again be possible Thu aftn/eve with an
approaching cold front. Confidence on prevailing storms is low at
the moment, however. The best potential will be toward the end of
the period in the 20-00Z time frame.
Outlook: Showers/storms will remain possible Thursday night into
midday Friday with a southward moving cold front, especially across
the southern TAF sites (RDU/FAY/RWI), along with some sub-VFR
stratus or fog. VFR conditions will prevail late Fri through Sun.
Another cold front on Mon will result in a return chance of adverse
aviation conditions in showers/storms.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...JJT
AVIATION...Kren