Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/09/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Key Messages:
- Potential For Valley Fog Tonight
- Next Rain Chances End Of The Week Into The Weekend
Tonight...Fog potential
With an area of high pressure moving in overhead tonight, the
setup for a valley fog event looks pretty good. Winds looks to be
under 10 knots for a pretty deep layer with calm to nearly calm at
the surface. Forecast soundings show saturation occurring at the
surface and slowly deepening toward sunrise. Some caveats for
dense fog forming tonight are that the saturated layer does not
look to be all the deep and with the north winds occurring today
as the high moves in, that should produce some general drying of
the dew point. Expect to see some fog in the morning, the question
is just how dense it will be.
End Of The Week Into The Weekend...small rain chances
Through the middle of the week, ridging aloft and at the surface
will be the dominant feature with seasonable and quiet weather.
The upper level ridge looks to retrograde to the west just enough
for the end of the week to allow some ridge runner short wave
troughs to start dropping across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
regions. The first of these potentially could drop across the
area Thursday night and Friday bringing a chance of rain with it.
A couple more may then slide through over the weekend with another
chance for some rain both Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
CIGS: generally SKC conditions expected through much of Wed as high
pressure influences the TAF sites. That said, with fog/stratus
favored in the river valleys, likely LIFR BKN cigs at KLSE for a few
hours around 12z Tue.
WX/vsby: river valley fog a concern for KLSE Tue morning. 03z T/Td
spread only 5 F while RAP soundings show a deepening light wind
layer in the veritical (upwards of 4 kft by 12z). Both very
favorable for 1/4SM at KLSE. Sfc wind gives pause to that threat,
with current light north winds generally an inhibitor to fog flowing
onto the airfield from the river system. If winds can swing
southeast, a prolonged period of 1/4SM likely. With these sfc winds
the only really deterent - going to trend downward with the fog.
Winds: light and variable overnight with light but more southerly
for Tue into Tue night.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION.....Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1037 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The oppressive heat persists into Tuesday. A slow moving cold
front brings the better shot for more widespread showers and
storms. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible with the
main threat of damaging winds and locally heavy downpours. This
front will linger nearby bringing additional opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler
temperatures, but still quite humid until this front clears.
Seasonable, with much lower humidity Friday into next weekend,
with dry weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM update...
A broken line of storms is crossing western into central MA late
this evening. While the main front remains stalled well to our
north, there is a surface trough hung up across our region. With
a few hundred joules of MLCAPE left and around 10-15 kt of
shear, the storms actually picked up slightly in intensity as
shown in the cooling of cloud tops per the sandwich satellite
product and uptick in GLM flashes. Radar velocity product shows
that there could have been isolated 30 kt gusts across the high
terrain out west, but we did not receive any damage reports from
our amateur radio or public. With the line continuing to weaken,
expect shower coverage to diminish for the remainder of
overnight hours. Did bump up PoPs a little for the next few
hours but current forecast remains largely on track.
Previous Discussion...
Highlights
* Any lingering shower/storm activity tapers off during the
evening. Should be dry and quiet for most, but will see
stratus move into parts of the south coast.
Subtle shortwave trough lifts into northern New England this
evening. The surface prefrontal trough slides through, but
unfortunately we remain within the warm sector as the cold front
begins to sag southeastward from northern New England.
Anticipating that the shower/storm activity will dissipate this
evening due to the loss of daytime heating and there really
isn`t much of a lifting mechanism with the shortwave ejecting
out of the region. As has been the case the past couple of days
still cannot rule out locally heavy downpours and gusty winds
given the anomalously tropical environment. Still have roughly
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE before the MLCIN rises after sunset.
Lapse rates remain between 7-9 degrees Celsius with poor mid
level lapse rates and PWATS approaching 2 inches along with warm
cloud layer depths greater than 10 kft. Given the relatively
weak forcing models are really struggling with the coverage. For
most will be a miss, but think chances are greatest across the
interior.
Once the shower/storm activity diminishes will see an increase
in stratus and perhaps some fog across the south coast. Not
overly confident in widespread fog given the 30-40 kt SW low
level jet swinging through. May not completely mix down gusts
especially across the Islands as they remain inverted per
forecast soundings, but the pressure gradient appears tight
enough to keep winds above 10 kts. Will be tough to cool down
with W flow and the 30-40 kt low level jet swinging through. Low
temps remaining in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights
* Oppressive heat persists for much of southern New England on
Tuesday.
* Slow moving cold front brings more widespread showers and
storms on Tuesday. Isolated severe storms possible with the
main threat of damaging wind gusts and locally heavy
downpours.
A more amplified trough/shortwave slides from the eastern Great
Lakes/Quebec through New England by Tuesday evening. May have a
shortwave lifting into the central/eastern Great Lakes by early
Wednesday. A slow moving cold front slides into and potentially
through much of southern New England on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.
Main concerns for Tuesday are the persistent oppressive heat
and risk for strong/severe thunderstorms. Until the cold front
slides in will still be under a low/mid 70 degree dew point
airmass. Aloft will have W flow with 850 hPa temps around 18-20
degrees Celsius. Do have some uncertainty with how warm we get
due to cloud cover across northern portions of the CWA, but
still will be quite close to Heat Advisory criteria, so have
left as is at this point. Most confident in the temp/dewpoint
forecast for CT, RI and eastern MA especially during the
morning. Highs top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
As the cold front slides through there will be a risk of
strong/severe thunderstorms. Will be located within the RRQ of a
500 hPa jet streak lifting into northern New England. Still
quite the tropical airmass with PWATS between 2-2.25 inches for
most with warm cloud layer depths between 10-15 kft. On top of
this with the jet streak lifting through will have deep layer
shear increasing to 25-30 kts. Expecting MLCAPE values to range
from a few hundred to 1500 J/kg with 7-9 degree Celsius low
level lapse rates and the typical poor mid level lapse rates.
Thinking that the main risk with any stronger storms that
develop are damaging wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.
CAMs show a broken line sliding through. Will note the NCAR
HRRR Neural Network Convective Hazard forecast shows roughly
15-30 percent probabilities for a severe hazard over our area.
Given the environment reached out to SPC to introduce a marginal
risk for severe storms on Day 2. Lastly, have put a mention of
heavy rain and gusty winds into the forecast. Timing wise think
the risk is highest for severe storms from roughly noon to 10
PM.
Will see any lingering showers and storms coming to an end for
most of the interior, but still may linger into early Wednesday
for the south coast depending on how quickly the front swings
through. Anticipate the strong/severe storm risk to diminish
during the evening as the instability wanes. Low temps falling
into the 60s across the interior, but remain in the upper 60s to
low 70s for the south coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Quasi-stationary front Tue night thru Thurs will focus periods
of cloudiness and a few opportunities for welcomed rains. Best
chance at widespread rains Wed night into early Thu. Temps
cooler than normal but still quite humid.
* Cooler and much more comfortable humidity levels Fri into the
weekend.
* Need to track position of surface cold front offshore but odds
favor dry weather for the weekend.
Details:
Tuesday Night through Thursday:
Quasi-stationary, slowly-southward-sagging frontal boundary in
vicinity of SNE will combine with roughly front-parallel 700-500
mb flow and continued influx of tropical moisture to focus
several opportunities for welcomed rains through showers and
embedded t- storms. Though it`s likely it won`t be raining for
the whole stretch, continued differences in frontal position
and more specifically its southward egress through SNE supported
PoP of at least lower Chance level for most of this period.
Overall severe weather risk appears low to nil given abundant
cloud cover, some onshore wind component and cooler surface
temps.
It looks like the period which harbors the best chance at
welcomed rains is later Wed/Wed night into the early Thurs AM
period, as subtle vort maxima induces weak surface low
development on the frontal boundary and bringing with it a slug
of beneficial rain, especially near/south of the Mass Pike into
southeast New England. Seems to be reasonably good consensus in
this outcome, in spite of how dry we`ve been, and also supported
by EPS, GEFS and GEPS 24-hour QPF probs of at least 0.5 inches
that are as much as 70% in the EPS. Lower probs of 24-hr QPF in
the 1" range in this same corridor. In a convective pattern and
given the coarser horizontal res of these global models can`t
take QPF at face value but nonetheless favorable probs for
welcomed rains exist. Given the above, and synoptic pattern
recognition looking similar to that of the Maddox frontal rain
regime, opted to increase PoP into the higher Likely to
Categorical range for Wed night into early Thurs, with PoP then
diminishing a bit into Thurs aftn. Elevated PWAT values could
support local downpours.
Anticipate seasonable to cooler than normal high temps in this
period, with lows around seasonable levels as well. Highs mainly
mid/upper 70s to lower 80s, lows in the 60s to near 70. However
it still will be quite muggy until the front sags southward
into the coastal waters.
Friday into the Weekend:
Amplification of the western CONUS mid-level ridge is expected
to dig a longwave trough southward from east-central Canada into
the Ohio Valley/northern Appalachians vicinity. This should
bring a much more refreshing air mass to SNE with lower humidity
levels and temperatures around seasonable levels. PoP/rain
chances continue to carry some level of uncertainty, but did
note a rather remarkable flip-flop back towards drier weather
for this period in both global ensemble means and the 00z
deterministic guidance. Though it really didn`t have much 12z
ensemble membership support, the 12z ECMWF/GFS counterparts
showed a closing-off mid-level trough with developing low
pressure on the front near Bermuda then pivoting NNW toward
coastal New England Fri- Sat with a decent slug of rain. The 00z
suite of guidance however came in with a weaker and more
progressive trough, which shifts the front well offshore into
the western Atlc and keeps SNE dry with NWly flow. Something to
monitor, but as NBM is too slow in reducing PoP given what`s
transpired in the 00z guidance, lowered PoP toward borderline
slight chance/sub- mentionable levels in case today`s 12z
guidance comes back in wetter. Key in that evolution is the
strength of the trough and if it closes off. Keeping outcomes
open but given lack of ensemble support for a wetter outcome,
thinking odds favor drier weather for this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z update...
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR for most with any lingering shower/storm activity coming to
an end during the evening. Could see some MVFR/IFR stratus/fog
spread into the Cape/Islands late. May be a case where it is
just stratus given how strong winds are. Will have LLWS concerns
especially across the Islands with a SW jet overhead. SW winds
10-15 kts.
Tuesday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.
VFR for most with increasing chances for showers/storms
especially after 17-19Z. If any showers/storms pass over a
terminal then conditions are likely to lower to MVFR/IFR
conditions and bring locally heavy downpours along with gusty
winds. SW/W winds at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts.
Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Conditions lowering to MVFR to IFR in wake of the cold front.
Still have may some lingering showers/storms with the front
moving through, but confidence highest across the south coast.
Winds shifting to the N/NE at 5-10 kts.
KBOS...Moderate confidence in TAF due to pop up shower/storm
activity this afternoon.
KBDL...Moderate confidence in TAF due to pop up shower/storm
activity this afternoon.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
Could see a few isolated showers/storms leak into eastern areas
this evening. Overall dry and quiet tonight, but will see
increasing low clouds across portions of the south coast late.
SW winds between 15-20 kts with gusts between 20-30 kts. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect for much of the waters.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...High confidence in trends, moderate
in exact wind shift timing as a cold front slides through.
Risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front slides into
and through southern New England. Risk highest during the
afternoon an into the evening. Any of these showers/storms could
produce strong winds gusts at times. Will see SW winds at 10-20
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds shifting to the N/NE once the
front passes through with speeds of 10-15 kts.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temperatures
August 8th:
BOS 96F [1983]
ORH 94F [1916]
PVD 95F [1909]
BDL 98F [2001]
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ002>023-026.
RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>234-
250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BL/BW
NEAR TERM...BL/BW/Chai
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...BL/BW
MARINE...BL/BW
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
957 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled over the northern Gulf of
Maine tonight. A low pressure from the Great Lakes will
approach overnight and cross the Downeast coast Tuesday. Weak
high pressure builds in Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A
cold front approaching from Canada Thursday and crosses the
area Thursday night. Stronger high pressure will build in from
the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
9:57PM Update...Continue to make adjustments to the POPs based
on latest radar trends. New area of moderate to potentially
heavy rain is moving into the North Woods from Quebec and will
track across the Flood Watch area. There is rapidly weakening
convection over southern Maine that may be robbing the best
southerly moisture advection. So far, QPF forecast hasn`t played
out well given a break in precip with just scattered showers
has been occurring in the Flood Watch. 00z RAOB from CAR showed
an incredibly moist atmosphere from 860-200mb resulting in a
PWAT of 1.60 inches. This is more than 0.20 inches above the
90th percentile. Therefore, continue to be concerned with areas
of heavy rainfall and will continue the Flood Watch as is for
the approaching rain from Quebec. Temperatures continue to
remain nearly steady so minor tweaks but overall looking good
there.
Previous Discussion...
Models are in good agreement that a last s/wv alf and sfc low
from the Great Lks tracks ENE alg a stationary front near the
Downeast coast toward the Can Maritimes ovrngt. Rnfl at this tm
still looks to be more stratiform Mon Ngt into Tue Morn, with
heavier downpours with meso-beta elements within the rn shield
where we mentioned isold tstms with lmtd elevated CAPE and the
best 6hrly QPFs in across the 8pm-2am and 2am to 8am tm frames.
One potential spoiler with regard to distribution of heaviest
QPF across the FA is the possibility of high cnvctn from NW New
Eng tracking further S ovr Cntrl ptns of the FA later tngt,
potentially intercepting the moisture transport from S of the
stationary front from reaching far Nrn ptns of the FA as per
latest HRRR model runs. Rn will then taper to sct to isold shwrs
NW to SE across the FA late Tue morn thru Tue aftn with
progressively lesser 6 hrly totals. Temps will remain below avg
thru Tue due rn and or cld cvr.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave ridging transits the area Tuesday
night. Other than possibly some lingering showers near short
early Tuesday evening, it should be dry as a result. Lows
Tuesday night should be within a few degrees of either side of
normal. Patchy fog is possible by late Tuesday night.
A weak northern stream shortwave passes Wednesday, with a
slight chance of showers across far western zones and a few mid
to high clouds elsewhere. Highs on Wednesday should be a few
degrees below normal.
Another weak northern stream shortwaves moves through Wednesday
night, with a slight chance of showers. These should be far more
miss than hit in nature, with the possible exception of far
western zones. Lows Wednesday night should be a few degrees
above normal. With onshore flow, there is the potential of
patches to areas of fog by late at night.
A northern stream trough approaches Thursday is it strengthens
and stretches down into the Central Appalachians from Northern
Quebec. It`s associated cold front should be close enough by
late Thursday afternoon to bring some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to far western zones. IT this point
CAPES appear to be fairly low, generally less than 500 J/kg, but
with Showalter indices in the 0 to 3 range, there should be
enough low to mid level instabilty to support some elevated
storms. The GFS has a progressive bias so sided with the idea
of a slower cold front passage than it has, something similar to
the CMC- Regional and NAM for timing. Highs on Thursday should
be near normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A northern stream trough builds into the region Thursday night-
Saturday. Differential positive vorticity advection, coupled
with support from the right entrance region to the 300 hPa jet
should support some showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening.
At this time, the severe threat appears to be very low, but a
few stronger storms early Thursday evening cannot be ruled out,
especially across northern zones. It should then be dry Friday-
Saturday.
A closed low should develop near the Gulf of Maine Saturday
night, then lift northeast into the Canadian Maritimes through
Sunday night. Depending on the exact track of this system, there
could be some isolated to scattered showers across mainly
eastern zones, however, most if not all locations should be
mainly, if not completely, dry Saturday night through Sunday
night.
Another northern stream shortwave approaches on Monday, brining
with it a slight chance of showers, mainly across the North,
Temperatures should generally be within a few degrees of either
side of normal Thursday night-Sunday night. Highs should be
above normal on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 00z TAFs continue to amend as needed. Overall IFR
cigs in southern zones but seeing occasional SCT IFR cigs at
BGR making for MVFR. Across the Northern Sites generally VFR
cigs with SCT IFR but cigs continue to lower. Expecting IFR
with next batch of rain approaching from the west. Wind Shear is
possible into tomorrow at BHB.
Previous Discussion...
MVFR clgs/vsbys in rain/patchy fog this eve lowering
to IFR ovrngt. Lgt ENE winds.
Tue...IFR clgs/vsbys in rn and patchy fog Tue Morn, then
MVFR/low VFR clgs/vsbys in shwrs durg the aftn. Light ENE winds
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Thursday morning...VFR, except MVFR or lower
possible late at night/early in the morning in any fog. NE winds
G15-20KT possible Tuesday evening.
Thursday afternoon-evening...VFR, except brief MVFR possible in
any stronger thunderstorms.
Late Thursday night-Saturday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA
conditions for these ptns of the fcst. Visibilities will be
reduced in at least patchy fog Tngt thru Tue with patchy fog
becmg areas late Tngt into erly Tue Morn with patchy fog ending
by Tue Aftn. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst
wv hts with the main spectral wv group propagating S to N with
pds of 6 to 8 sec.
SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters
Tuesday night-Saturday. The pressure gradient should be
sufficiently relaxed to limit winds to 10 kt or less from
Wednesday afternoon-Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch has been issued for the N ptn of the Rgn through
Tuesday morning. Models are in good agreement with the timing of
the highest rainfall amounts after sunset, where they indicate
a band of QPF of around 1 to 2” and lcly more moving across the
northern half of the region by Tue Morn. Flash flooding is not
the main concern attm due to the low soil moisture, normal river
levels, and guidance showing a need for over 1” per hour in
order for flash flooding to occur, which is a relatively low
probability with this system. However, minor flooding of
streams and any urban areas that are traversed by core of best
banding of rnfl rates is definitely more probable.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Sinko/VJN
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Sinko/VJN/Maloit
Marine...Sinko/VJN/Maloit
Hydrology...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1122 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move southeast across the area tonight
into Tuesday morning. Behind the front, high pressure will
build southeast across the Great Lakes, persisting into Wednesday.
Another cold front will move south across the Great Lakes on
Thursday, with high pressure building in behind it for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture rich airmass with PW`s over 2 inches continues to
stream northeast, interacting with the approaching cold front
and leading to pockets of heavy rain. Rainfall has been very
efficient tonight with a deep warm layer. Cooling cloud tops and
high lightning rates have been good indicators of heavy rain
producing storms and a new Flood Advisory has been issued for
high rainfall rates and ponding of water on roads in Ashland and
Wayne counties. Overall trend for convection tonight is for the
heavier rain to shift east with a gradual weakening trend with
waning instability.
Previous discussion...
Mid-level trough and upper-level trough are located across the
northern Great Lakes with surface low near Lake Huron extending
a cold front southwest across lower Michigan and northern
Indiana towards the central Mississippi Valley, all of which
are providing weak synoptic-scale lift across the area.
Anomalous moisture content is residing over the area with
surface dew points as high as 78 being observed (at KFDY) and
RAP mesoanalysis placing PWAT values over 2" across much of the
area, which is near the max moving average for the area,
according to the SPC sounding climatology. This environment, in
combination with weak synoptic lift, is more than sufficient for
the development of thunderstorms. Convective initiation has
already across across portions of northern Indiana, southern
Michigan and northwest Ohio. High moisture content and daytime
heating from earlier has allowed for MUCAPE of up to 3500 J/kg,
sufficient for strong updrafts despite the weak forcing and
mid-level lapse rates. Theta-e differences of near 25 C suggest
the potential for strong to perhaps near severe wind gusts
within the strongest storms this afternoon into early this
evening, mainly for northwest Ohio and perhaps into north-
central Ohio. This is despite weak deep layer wind shear of only
~20 knots. Storms will move east into a much weaker environment
located over central Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania, so storms should evolve into a weakening state by
late evening into tonight.
With a degree of mean cloud layer wind near parallel to the
forcing mechanism (cold front), somewhat slow storm motions, and
very high moisture content, locally heavy rain could produce
localized flash flooding, if we are to observe training of
thunderstorms. This may be hard to do as weak advection should
limit training of storms. Best potential for flooding would be
northwest Ohio where the greatest instability is.
Rain showers overspread the area tonight, though thunderstorm
potential is limited due to limited and weakening instability
overnight. Rain showers end from north to south Tuesday through
Tuesday night as the cold front moves through. Significantly
cooler temperatures are ushered in with the cold front as we go
from heat indices in the 90s this afternoon to high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will slowly push south of the region Wednesday
morning as 1020 mb surface high pressure attempts to build in from
the northern Great Lakes. A few showers lingering along and south of
the US 30 corridor in the morning will end by afternoon with
increasing sunshine as drier air and subsidence work into the
region. Dew points will be lower, falling into the low 60s, but the
real airmass change will wait for the passage of a second front
which will come Thursday. As the surface high weakens and shifts
east Wednesday night, a strong mid/upper shortwave will drop into
the central Great Lakes while deepening the longwave mid/upper
troughing over the Great Lakes and NE CONUS in the process. This
shortwave will push the aforementioned second cold front south
across the region Thursday morning and early afternoon. Moisture
return ahead of the boundary is very limited due to an already
northwesterly boundary layer flow, but upper forcing from the left
exit of a 70-90 knot H3 jet streak should induce sufficient low-
level convergence to generate a broken line of showers along and
ahead of the front, so blended in higher PoPs compared to NBM for
Thursday morning into the afternoon. Surface heating ahead of the
front will also lead to at least weak instability, so isolated
thunderstorms are possible as well. Behind the front, strong surface
high pressure (Canadian high) will build into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Thursday night. This will filter in a refreshing airmass
with dew points dropping into the 50s Thursday evening and Thursday
night.
Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s (warmest in
NW Ohio) cooling into the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (coolest in
far NE Ohio and NW PA) with widespread mid 50s to low 60s Thursday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The strong surface high will remain in control Friday through Sunday
while gradually shifting from the central Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley into the Northeast US and central Appalachians by Sunday.
This along with a highly amplified pattern characterized by deep
longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS downstream from a massive
ridge (heat dome) over the Rockies and Plains will keep our region
in cool, dry NW flow leading to picture perfect summer weather.
Highs Friday and Saturday will generally be in the mid/upper 70s
with crisp overnight lows in the low/mid 50s. It will feel more like
a fall airmass! Return flow starting to develop behind the departing
high Sunday will increase high temperatures into the upper 70s/low
80s, but dew points will remain pleasant. The upstream mid/upper
ridge tries to build a bit farther east into the Mississippi Valley
late Sunday and Monday while meeting resistance from the continued
deep troughing in the eastern CONUS. The resultant warm air
advection/theta e advection combined with weak shortwaves rippling
through the NW flow will ignite convection in the Mississippi
Valley, and several models try and bring showers into the region
from this activity Sunday afternoon. However, with the surface high
slow to move away and very dry airmass in place, feel this is way
too far east, so kept conditions dry through Sunday. However, kept
slight chance PoPs from NBM Sunday night and Monday as a more
defined shortwave drops through the Great Lakes and interacts with
what will probably be a tight baroclinic zone draped from NW to SE
near the western Great Lakes. Highs Monday will warm more solidly
into the low 80s with gradually increasing humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall continue to move
northeast across the area with thunder possible at all
terminals. IFR conditions in heavy rain expected with most
thunderstorms, with a weakening trend as activity continues east
overnight. As a cold front settles south across the area
tonight, widespread IFR conditions with low ceilings are
expected to develop. These will persist into Tuesday morning
before starting to lift. Southwest winds will shift to the north
with the passage of the front. Erratic wind shifts are possible
with thunderstorms although most of the higher gusts above 30
knots are done for tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR with patchy fog possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Non-VFR also possible with isolated rain
showers on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Continued the Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore zones from
Geneva to Ripley as W to SW winds nearing 20 knots at times generate
3 to 5 foot waves ahead of a cold front which will cross the lake
late tonight. It is a marginal Small Craft advisory since the
strongest winds are in the open waters, but recent observations and
the latest model data support a continued threat for the
aforementioned winds and waves. Farther west across the central
basin, winds do get into the 15-20 knot range early tonight, but
waves should stay 2 to 4 feet. The highest risk of rip currents will
continue to be at the lakeshores of Ashtabula and Erie Counties with
more of a moderate risk offshore of Lake County.
Winds switch to N behind the cold front late tonight while
decreasing to 10-15 knots, and N winds of 5-10 knots will continue
Tuesday and Tuesday night becoming W Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Another cold front will cross the lake Thursday morning, and NW
winds behind it will increase to 10-15 knots before becoming N and
increasing to 15-20 knots Thursday night. The Thursday and Thursday
night time period could approach Small Craft Advisory criteria again
along with at least moderate risks for rip currents. N winds will
generally decrease to 5-10 knots Friday through Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...KEC/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Garuckas
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
640 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
A few clouds are lingering across north central Kansas this
afternoon as the front that brought the much cooler air to the
region is currently extended across southern Kansas. This has
resulted in a seasonably cool afternoon across the local
area...with most locations currently in the mid to upper 70s...and
expected to top out just above 80 degrees later this afternoon.
For tonight...inherited some small pops for southern portions of
the forecast area where models are hinting at some weak lift late
in the night. The latest NAMnest and RAP are both indicating some
weak convection across this area straddling daybreak...with less
noticeable signals in the HRRR. While confidence is not high in
much developing...anything that does develop should be on the weak
side...and kept this mention going in the current forecast as it
seems reasonable.
With nearly full sunshine and a moderating airmass...as high
pressure builds to our west and heights aloft begin to rise...a
return to more seasonal temperatures is expected for Tuesday
afternoon...which will be the start of a warming trend through the
end of the week. With the responsible upper level ridge not
showing any weakness as it shifts east by the upcoming
weekend...dry weather is also anticipated to accompany the warm
temps...with the current 7 day QPF forecast from WPC indicating
most of the local area will be dry through next weekend. While not
as oppressive as the heat of late...heat index values will likely
top out in the upper 90s to near 100 by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
VFR conditions persist through the forecast period at both
terminals. Winds will be light and variable this evening and
through the overnight hours, becoming southerly around 5-10kts
around mid-morning. A few passing clouds remain possible this
evening and again tomorrow.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Wekesser
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
612 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 606 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
this evening and decrease in coverage overnight as a cold frontal
boundary moves through. A few of the storms could produce gusty
winds and localized heavy rainfall. Most of the area will be dry
beginning Tuesday with conditions turning less humid through the
end of the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Convective development through early evening and potential of
isolated gusty winds/heavy rain will be the main forecast
concerns for the near term. Earlier convection this morning over
northern Illinois has complicated mesoscale details a bit for the
local area. A remnant weak MCV may still emerge from decaying
northern Illinois convection into local area this evening that
should aid in prefrontal/frontal convection. MSAS analysis/sfc
observations indicate a couple of boundaries of interest, the
first from near Valparaiso to Elkhart to north of Angola, with
primary sfc cold front and sharper low level convergence
approaching the IN/IL border. Initial convection this afternoon
appears to be favoring the lead remnant outflow/marine reinforced
boundary north of the US Route 6 corridor, but would expect with
continued destabilization over next few hours and increase in
stronger low level convergence with the cold front, storm coverage
will increase in the 20-22Z timeframe.
RAP analysis from 19Z indicates a few pockets of enhanced
instability, one across far northeast Illinois into far northern
Indiana near the aforementioned lead boundary. Pre-frontal
confluence in this area is also accompanied with some pooling of low
level moisture and PWATS in excess of 2 inches. Another MLCAPE axis
extends from southern Illinois noising into east central Illinois.
Instability should increase across central portions of CWA next few
hours, and main pre-frontal instability axis across east central
Illinois should nose into west central Indiana. This should support
continued expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but this
will be in an overall poorly sheared environment. Some locally modest
increase in shear is possible with remnant convectively enhanced
short wave moving out of NE Illinois, but confidence is low that
this feature would have a notable effect on convective
organization locally. Given combination of moderate instability
and weak shear, multi-cell mode is favored through early evening
with quick preference to outflow dominance with any more robust
cells. SPC has placed much of area in Day 1 Marginal Risk for
severe, mainly for any isolated wet microbursts that would occur.
The greatest risk for this isolated threat appears to be fairly
limited in time, more to the 20Z-00Z window.
The other concern through early evening will be on potential of some
localized heavy rain amounts given the 2+ inch PWAT pre-frontal
pooling and moderate westerly low level jet of similar magnitude to
deep layer mean wind supporting some upwind/backbuilding
propagation. The orientation of primary instability axis working
in from east central IL could also set up an environment favorable
for upwind development. Not expecting widespread hydro issues at
this time, but could see some localized issues in some areas given
what should be efficient rain rates this evening, and recent
localized heavy rainfall in some spots over past day and a half.
With mid/upper short wave shearing out across Great Lakes/eastern
Ontario, front should slow its southeast progress later this
evening across southeast third of the area which could allow for
some training potential into early evening.
A few showers may linger into Tuesday across the south/southeast but
will maintain idea from previous forecast in dry conditions for the
afternoon with better shower potential south of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Cooler and less humid conditions will be in store Tuesday night
through much of rest of work week as a stable longwave pattern
becomes entrenched (western CONUS ridging/eastern CONUS
troughing). This pattern will keep low level anticyclone
positioned across the region for much of this period. A more
vigorous upper level trough dropping across eastern Great Lakes on
Thursday should drive reinforcing cool front into region on
Thursday. Front for our area will be somewhat divorced from
stronger mid/upper level support so at this forecast distance will
just maintain slight chance PoPs Thursday PM. Eventually this
pattern should exhibit some slight progression into the weekend
that could allow for some renewed convective chances late in the
period at the nose of better advective forcing.
Overall temps for the extended look to remain below normal,
particularly with min temps given dry nature to low levels and weak
flow allowing for cool nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Cool frontal boundary passage will continue to bring increased
chances for moderate to heavy rainfall and even a few embedded
thunderstorms through this evening with some VISBY decreases
within the heaviest rain also being possible. Chances will
decrease through the overnight period from the north to the south
as the boundary moves through. Behind the boundary, periods of
stratus will be possible and lowered vsbys could occur into
Tuesday with flight conditions dropping into MVFR and IFR as cold
air advection take over tonight. Localized patchy fog will be
possible however at this time not expected to become dense.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for INZ003.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday afternoon for MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Andersen
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Andersen
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
One more cool night for wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Sfc high pressure
across the Midwest will drift slowly east and the temperature
forecast leans on the coolest guidance data set- the NAM, for lows
in the 50s to lower 60s. This is a few degrees cooler than the short
term model blend and the 50th NBM. The temperature forecast will
compete with south winds aloft at 850mb.
An isolated thunderstorm chance is in place across the Sandhills and
swrn Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening. The models are in good
agreement suggesting a warm front will be draped across the
southwest and ncntl area. The cap is still weak and the moisture
very modest, less than 1.25 inches of PWAT. Winds aloft are weak
also, less than 20 kts at h500mb, but the models including the GFS
suggest a weak UA disturbance will drift east southeast off the nrn
Rockies as a trigger.
The temperature forecast Tuesday leans on the short term model blend
for highs in the 90s. This is the middle road, slightly warmer than
the guidance blend but very close to the 50th NBM and the RAP
model.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Another protracted period of dry weather Wednesday through Sunday
appears imminent across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. An upper level
ridge high pressure across the Four Corners region this morning
will build very slowly north into Colorado and then east into KS
by next weekend. The associated subtropical plume of upper level
moisture will remain mostly north of Nebraska through Saturday and
then drop south Sunday as the ridge moves into KS.
The forecast concern is how warm temperatures will get this week
before a cold front drops into Nebraska next weekend. The very warm
GFS guidance suggested 5 days of 100+F degree temperatures Wednesday
Sunday but bias correction lowers these temperatures into the upper
90s to around 100. The operational GFS shows h700mb temperatures of
14C-18C supporting it`s heat- much warmer than the ECM or GEM. The
forecast follows the 50th percentile NBM which is close to the
guidance blend. This suggested highs in the 90s to around 100 with
the warmest temperatures Friday and Saturday. It is during this time
that sfc low pressure will migrate east off the high plains into SD.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Quiet aviation conditions are expected over the next day. Winds
remain near or under 10 knots with mostly clear skies. Some
increasing clouds can be expected tomorrow afternoon, but ceilings
should remain in VFR.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
539 PM MST Mon Aug 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The main storm chances for today will begin in the eastern
Arizona high terrain and parts of the western deserts this
afternoon before possibly spreading into the lower deserts and
Phoenix this evening and tonight. Storm chances will increase
noticeably tomorrow and then remain elevated through next weekend
and into early next week due to abundant moisture and an active
Monsoon pattern in place. Occasionally heavy rainfall, localized
flash flooding, gusty winds and localized blowing dust remain
likely through early next week. High temperatures will also remain
slightly below to near normal through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The H5 Monsoon ridge is ideally positioned near the 4-Corners with
moist E flow through the mid-upper levels aloft. GOES WV imagery
indicated a very moist airmass across the region with inverted
disturbances pushing W into SE CA where GOES imagery and radar
also indicated an area of scattered showers and storms/MCS where
localized flash flooding is happening this afternoon including
near I-10 and JTNP. Early afternoon radar also showed widely
isolated to scattered distant thunderstorms across the high
terrain of N, E and S AZ. The E AZ storms were associated with
additional E wave vort clusters advancing from NM. The latest
ACARS soundings shows an increasingly moist airmass with PW
having climbed to 1.7->1.9" while mesoscale analysis indicated PW
>2" across SW AZ and into SE CA. MU and SB CAPE had also increased
to >2-3K j/kg.
Some HREF members still favor pronounced convection with locally
heavy rainfall developing this afternoon across the across S Gila
Cty and near Globe and burn scar areas before descending into the
lower deserts and parts of the Phoenix Metro around 04Z. The HRRR
however is an outlier and has recently backed off on that notion
by both delaying and weakening the convection coming off of the
high terrain this evening. However all members continue to favor a
gusty E outflow this evening pushing into the Phoenix metro and N
Pinal. The potential for patchy blowing dust moving west remains
possible, although most likely for N Pinal Cty and the SE-E Phx
Metro Valley
For tomorrow the HREF and ensembles are in agreement on an uptick in
storm chances and coverage from E to W across the region with POPs
increasing to near 50% for Phoenix and the lower deserts, to 60-70%
for the E AZ high country, and 20-30% for SW AZ and SE CA. WPC Day
2 ERO also features a "slight risk" over much of the region for
tomorrow. Some HREF members start with some shower activity W of
Phoenix in the Tue morning hours moving in from in S-SE AZ.
However the main convection will likely start in E-SE AZ
associated with the next E wave(S) and will push into the Phoenix
Metro and the lower deserts Tue evening. Good (>50% for >35 mph
gusts) chances of strong gusty winds, from both the S-SW and E and
locally dense blowing dust will likely be followed by locally
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding in the high country
and the lower deserts.
Going through the rest of the week and possibly beyond, ensembles
continue to be in very good agreement that the subtropical high
pressure will remain situated northeast of the four corners
region. This overall positioning of the high will be favorable for
continuous moisture advection into the desert southwest with PWAT
values across the lower elevations ranging between 1.7 and 2.0
inches. In addition to the continuous moisture advection, there
will be periodic easterly waves that will migrate into the region,
which will aid in increasing the storm coverage. However,
determining the timing of each individual wave as it approaches
the region is difficult this far in advance. NBM PoPs through the
period range between 25-50% in the lower elevations and between
40-70% across the higher terrain. With the increased moisture and
potential cloud cover from convective debris, high temperatures
during the next several days will remain near to slightly below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated 0039Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The environment over Phoenix is still capped this afternoon with
FEW to SCT small cumulus. There are storms surrounding the area
with storm motion to the west. There are a couple outflows moving
toward the metro area with the closest one to the northwest that
could provide a light northwest wind shift at KDVT. The more
favorable outflow(s) will be from showers and storms moving toward
the metro from the east this evening. Most favorable timing of an
outflow is still around 4-6Z. Probability of outflow gusts
exceeding 30 kts is around 30-40%, which could also generate
blowing dust at these magnitudes. There is also a 30% for showers
and storms to survive into or redevelop in the metro this evening
with the outflow(s), although most hi-res models weaken the
activity the further west they push. Storm chances in the metro
will be higher Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lowest cloud bases
will mostly be around 10 kft, but could dip to 7-8 kft with a
storm. Greatest cloud coverage will be during the evening and
overnight.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Westerly winds at KBLH now are expected to eventually shift back
southerly or become variable this evening and overnight. East to
southeast winds at KIPL will prevail for at least the next hour or
so, but storms over the mountains to the west may eventually push
a gusty outflow through the Imperial Valley with winds shifting to
the west. There is a low chance (10-15%) for VCSH or VCTS at KIPL
with an outflow this afternoon and evening. Winds should
eventually turn back easterly tonight after any outflow. There
will be another chance for VCSH and VCTS Tuesday morning, better
at KBLH (10-20%), as hi-res models suggest elevated convection
moving through SW AZ. FEW to SCT clouds based around 10 kft will
be common, with SCT to BKN higher clouds, through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Active monsoon storm conditions are expected during the next
several days as moisture levels remain elevated across the area.
With the elevated moisture levels in place, MinRHs will range
between 25-40% with excellent overnight recoveries. Therefore, the
fire danger threat is expected to remain low for the foreseeable
future. Winds for the most part will remain light, with the
exception of thunderstorm outflows generating stronger gusts.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sawtelle/Lojero
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Isolated gusty
downburst winds and flash flooding will be the main hazards
through tonight. Flood Watch northeast of Springfield.
2. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again Tuesday, mainly along
and south of Interstate 44.
3. Slightly less hot the first half of the work week with cloud
cover and precipitation overhead.
4. Mostly dry forecast the second half of the week with near to
slightly above normal temperatures.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Water Vapor imagery
revealed an upper level low across southern Missouri-northern
Arkansas. This low was slowly drifting west ahead of an incoming
shortwave trough across the central/northern Plains. A surface
front was now moving into the far northern portion of the CWA with
temps in the 90s ahead of the front with temps in the 70s-80s back
behind the front.
The airmass across the area was moist and unstable with ML cape
values in the 2000-3000j/kg range. PW values have increased from
this morning and are now likely in the 1.7-2.0in range. Wind shear
was very weak with 850mb-300mb mean winds around 5-10kts. Low
level lapse rates were very steep (9C/km). Theta E diffs were in
the 25-35C range therefore the environment is conducive to
localized severe downdrafts.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
east and south of Springfield in a unstable and a uncapped
environment. These storms will continue to be pulse storms with a
few severe downbursts and localized flash flooding possible.
Of greater concern will be later this evening and tonight as the
cold front continues to move closer to Interstate 44 and interacts
with a unstable airmass and the lift from the upper level low. The
12z HREF data supports a very high probability (>70%) of
thunderstorms developing along the Interstate 44 corridor from
Springfield northeast to Rolla/Lake of the Ozarks. These storms
could develop/train over the same areas and with the high moisture
content/instability, both severe pulse storms and flash flooding
is possible. HREF local probability matched mean data is showing
2-5 inches pockets northeast of Springfield, within a greater area
of smaller amounts of 1 inch or less. This area has also seen
more rain recently versus other areas therefore we will issue a
Flood Watch for this area northeast of Springfield for this
evening and tonight. Other areas further west will see less
amounts of rainfall.
The cold front will slow overnight and additional showers and
thunderstorms will be likely across the area, especially east of
Springfield. The front will likely move just south of I-44 during
the day Tuesday therefore chances of rain Tuesday will mainly be
across the southern CWA. The latest RAP does indicate 2000j/kg of
ML cape south of I-44 Tuesday afternoon therefore will need to
monitor for more pulse storms and isolated flash flooding.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 8 2022
Overall Synoptic Pattern: The Ensemble Cluster Analysis reveals
pretty high confidence that the area will remain just to the east
of the upper level high across the plains.
Temperatures: Ensemble guidance and NBM data supports temperatures
generally at or slightly above average. NBM spreads are only 5-6
degrees with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
expected from mid week into the weekend.
Precipitation Chances: The ensemble means indicate very low
probabilities (less than 20%) of seeing precip in this pattern.
Therefore most areas will likely remain dry through the rest of
the week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends throughout the entire 24 hour taf
period.
A slow moving frontal system will be a focus for showers and
thunderstorms through tonight and tomorrow. A few of the storms
will be capable of producing some downburst wind gusts, along with
heavy rain and lightning. Therefore, visibilities could drop at
any airfield experiencing this activity.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ057-058-069>071-
080>083-091-092.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer