Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/08/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Stationary front is holding over our southern CWA late this
evening...generating scattered light showers across portions of
Northern Lower Michigan. Low pressure continues to develop along
this front over the Central Plains and Iowa. Near term models
still ride this wave eastward along the stationary front overnight
into Monday...resulting in another wave of widespread showers and
a few thunderstorms that will impact our CWA very late tonight
into Monday. Heavy rainfall is still possible...mainly across our
far southern CWA during this time. Going forecast is handling this
scenario well...only minor adjustments needed at this time. Temps
will only fall a few more degrees overnight...with low temps
ranging from the upper 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the mid
60s across our southern CWA.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
High Impact Weather Potential: Some locally heavy rain rates remain
possible, along with a few non-severe thunderstorms.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Well-advertised slow-moving cold front
essentially bisects northern lower Michigan from west to east as of
early this afternoon. An impressively moist airmass remains in place
in the vicinity of the front evident by 12z APX raob PW measured at
1.93" and latest RAP analysis suggesting PWs currently in the
vicinity of 2.25" across much of northern lower Michigan. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms firing along this front locally,
while much heavier and persistent rains have remain displaced well
to our southwest...where deep layer forcing mechanisms remain
maximized. While remaining humid, a cooler afternoon than yesterday
across northern Michigan owning to that frontal boundary and
extensive cloud cover with highs spanning the 70s to low 80s area-
wide.
Cold front will remain nearly stationary this evening into tonight
while attention turns to a secondary shortwave trough, currently
trekking out of Montana into the Dakotas, progged to reach western
Lake Superior/Minnesota`s Arrowhead by 12z Monday. This is expected
to induce another area of low pressure along the front across the mid-
MS Valley before riding northeast across northern Michigan Monday
morning. The combo of occasional pockets of enhanced forcing and
aforementioned moisture-rich airmass will continue to produce
periods of showers and a few storms over the next 24 hours or so.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower/storm coverage and rain amounts.
As was anticipated by the prior forecaster, despite an impressively
moist airmass with PWs +2 to 3 SD above the early August mean/near
record levels, the heaviest/most persistent rain has remained off to
our southwest today as convectively driven cold pools continually
reinforce low-level convergence and "rob" northern Michigan from
widespread precip development. After this current batch of showers
slides across the forecast are, a general lull in precip coverage is
expected later this afternoon through the early overnight hours, but
there`s simply not enough support to remove PoPs given
aforementioned precipitable water values in an atmosphere
characterized by essentially moist adiabatic profiles. Certainly any
showers/storms that do develop will be efficient rain makers with
brief 2"+/hr rain rates (as has been the case already today), but
would still need significant training of any showers/storms to
produce any localized flooding this evening.
Perhaps the best potential for widespread heavier showers and
embedded storms locally arrives after 09z tonight into Monday
morning as the aforementioned upstream shortwave induces a secondary
area of low pressure along the nearly stationary front across the
Midwest/Great Lakes. Much healthier deep layer forcing accompany
these features with latest trends suggest the potential for more
widespread showers and storms to trek across northern WI tonight,
arriving into northern MI between 09-12z. While this batch of precip
should be somewhat more progressive compared to what`s been observed
across the nation`s midsection today, locally heavy rainfall rates
will warrant monitoring localized flooding potential through Monday
morning.
Low temperatures tonight ranging from the mid-upper 50s far north
and through the 60s across much of northern lower.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
High Impact Weather Potential: Thunder possible Monday along with
heavy rain potential.
Well, after a busted heavy rain forecast for today (Sunday), with
upstream development "stealing" all our instability....all hopes are
on a second wave pushing the instability northward into northern
lower Michigan tonight into Monday. This heavier rain shield should
be departing northern Michigan by the early afternoon hours as an
associated cold front finally pushes through with just hit
and miss showers lasting throughout the evening hours. PWATs are
still progged to be near 2 inches throughout Monday morning...when
the heaviest rain in this forecast period should occur with the best
moisture content, lift, and instability. Thunder will also be a
possibility with only a few rumbles of thunder and heavy rain being
the main threat, besides lightning, with any storms that do develop.
High pressure and much drier air follows directly behind this
departing cold front and will produce a northerly breeze with
daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday. Clouds
will be on the increase Wednesday as a moisture starved cold front
associated with an area of low pressure over Hudson Bay approaches
the forecast area. At this time the low-level dry air should keep
any rain elevated (virga)...although can`t rule out some very light
showers during the late afternoon hours across eastern upper making
it to the surface. Winds will be westerly Wednesday and begin
veering to more northwesterly during the end of this forecast period
behind the aforementioned cold front.
Temperatures may only reach into the mid to upper 60s across
northern Michigan on the northerly side of the departing cold front
Monday. Temperatures will then moderate each day, reaching into the
mid to upper 70s Tuesday and then upper 70s to mid 80s Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.
High pressure and rain free weather appears to dominate northern
Michigan`s weather through the extended period...with rain chances
not returning to the forecast until the end of next weekend to the
beginning of the next work week. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s
to low 80s during the majority of this forecast period.
Northerly winds could be a bit gusty Thursday as high pressure
building in from the northwest pushes against the back side of the
departing cold front to our east...tightening the pressure gradient.
Gusts at this time are forecast to only reach around 20-25 mph.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Stationary front will hold over Central Lower Michigan overnight...
maintaining chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
across Northern Lower Michigan. Low pressure currently developing
upstream over the Central Plains and Iowa will track along this
front late tonight and Monday...resulting in another period of
more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Prevailing
conditions will remain IFR overnight into Monday morning...with
some improvement to MVFR Monday afternoon. Surface winds will
remain from the N/NE AOB 10 kts overnight into Monday morning...
and then strengthen to 10 to 20 kts Monday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Sub-small craft advisory winds and waves continue through tonight;
however, behind the passage of an area of low pressure Monday
morning, winds do gradually pick up out of the north and
northeast...perhaps flirting with small craft criteria across parts
of northern Michigan`s nearshore waters before light winds return
Tuesday. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, becoming more widespread late tonight into
Monday morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Key Messages:
- Potential for flash flooding/heavy rain again tonight
Tonight Into Monday...Flash Flooding/Heavy Rain Potential
The potential exists for another round of heavy rain that could
lead to some flash flooding. However, the signals are not quite as
clear as Saturday, which casts some doubt on how things will
evolve. The synoptic surface front is stretched out from southeast
Nebraska into east-central Wisconsin and may become a focus for
additional development of storms/heavy rain this evening. The RAP
starts to increase the low level moisture transport again this
evening ahead of a rather strong short wave trough. This moisture
transport looks to initially be focused into the front with a
corresponding development of an east/west line of storms from
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin, which is roughly where
the 925 mb baroclinic zone looks to reside. The atmosphere in this
region is ripe for heavy rain production with warm cloud depths
in the 4 to 4.5 km range and precipitable water amounts
approaching 2.5 inches.
The concern then becomes whether these features will remain
somewhat stationary or if they will get lifted north through the
night in response to the large scale forcing from the short wave
trough. This forcing is pretty strong with excellent pv advection
in the 500-300 mb layer expected on the poleward side of the
positive tilted short wave trough. This pv advection looks to
track across northern Minnesota and far northern Wisconsin but
there also looks to be some jet dynamics that come into play. The
right entrance of the 300 mb jet looks to be in place ahead of the
short wave trough itself and should bring it lift over the
northern parts of the area. This synoptic forcing is expected to
cause a weak area of surface low pressure to form over far east-
central Minnesota and then track into northwest Wisconsin. As the
short wave trough and surface low move east/northeast it is also
expected to give the low level forcing a push to the east. And
then there is the question of whether the low level jet/moisture
transport will remain focused to the south or get pulled farther
north as the RAP is suggesting the synoptic front gets pulled
north with the surface low. But at the same time, there is still a
signal of the 925 mb front remaining over northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin through the evening that could keep the low
level forcing anchored farther south. After midnight, it looks
like the movement of the short wave trough/surface low will be
enough to start pushing everything to the east and out of the area
by sunrise. Even if the low level forcing remains to the south,
there should still be enough forcing from the short wave trough
for a round of convection to move across most of the area.
Looking at the 07.12Z HREF, the general QPF amounts do not look
to be as high as on previous runs but still a signal for some
heavy rain production. The 24 hour LPMM shows two distinct
potential axises for heavy rain. One on the low level jet this
evening across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin where
amounts are generally in the 1 to 3 inch range. A good signal in
this area for rates to be an inch per hour with just a small
signal (20 or less) for 2 inch per hour rates. The area of concern
is in response to the synoptic forcing across parts of southeast
Minnesota into western Wisconsin where again the LPMM shows 1 to 3
inch amounts possible. In a worst case scenario, the max QPF from
the HREF shows the potential for amounts to exceed 3 inches this
evening across the south and also farther to the north through the
entire night. Fortunately, this looks to be north of where the
heaviest rains fell Saturday night, but with most areas receiving
rains, the storage capacity of the ground has been reduced. As a
result, more runoff could be generated overnight that may lead to
higher potential for flooding to occur and not planning to make
any changes to the current flash flood watch.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
CIGS; IFR/MVFR through Mon morning, looking to improve/scatter out
Mon afternoon. High pressure builds in and then looks to hang around
into mid week, which will favor holding onto those VFR SKC/SCT
conditions.
WX/vsby: sct/bkn shra/ts, pushing east early overnight as a
shortwave trough tracks through the area. MVFR to brief IFR vsby
expected with the storms. With high pressure building in Monday,
setup is favoring valley fog which could impact KLSE early Tue
morning (1/4SM FG possible).
Winds: sfc front still wavering near the TAF, adding some
variability to the direction. Front will get a shove east overnight,
and winds will swing north/northwest as a result - hovering near 10
kts. Look for light/vrb winds Monday night as high pressure builds
in.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Even with the rains last night, there has been a very muted
response on the rivers showing the storage capacity of the ground
was very high. With more rain expected again overnight, the latest
river forecasts do show some additional rises occurring, but so
far, these rises are expected to be below flood stage at all
forecast points. This could change though if the rains tonight
would set up over northeast Iowa where both the Cedar and Turkey
River basins could be impacted.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION....Rieck
HYDROLOGY...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
953 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will continue to be the main weather story
well into next week. Heat Advisories continue through Monday.
A cold front will bring a better chance of thunderstorms on
Tuesday. The front will stall just south of the area Wednesday
with low pressure passing along it, which might bring welcome
rain Wednesday into Thursday. While the heat will break on
Wednesday, the humidity won`t ease up in a meaningful way until
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the forecast this evening. Thought the last
few runs of the HRRR had the correct idea for convective trends
this evening. This was also supported by regional radar data.
Only minor tweaks to temperatures and dew points for the
overnight hours. Yet another muggy night in store for southern
New England.
Previous Discussion...
Forecast is on track this afternoon, with cumulus bubbling
across southern New England but only sparse showers so far
which continue to pulse up and quickly collapse. As we go
through the afternoon the coverage of showers and storms may
increase, mainly along and north of the MA pike. Mesoanalysis
shows 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE but with no shear and lackluster
mid level lapse rates which should keep any thunderstorms of the
garden-variety. With sunset and loss of diurnal heating storms
will rapidly diminish in coverage leaving mostly clear skies,
save for the south coast where low level moisture will once
again bring the threat of low stratus to the Cape and islands.
Low temps will be quite warm owing to the very moist airmass, in
the mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday we rinse and repeat, as has been the story for days now. The
hot and humid airmass remains overhead with little change to speak
of. SW winds continue and advect in marginally warmer air in the low
levels (850 mb temps increase from 18C to 19-20C) so temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer, especially in the Connecticut Valley.
Highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s mean
another day of heat indices at or above 100F. Instability will once
again be high (CAPE >1500 J/kg) with poor shear (though a bit higher
than Sunday). Not expecting a severe threat with any storms that pop
up on Monday afternoon and evening. Any convection that does fire
will die down after sunset leaving a dry forecast for the overnight
hours. Increasing winds late in the day and overnight will take the
edge off, especially along the south coast and offshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Hot and humid Tuesday with a slow moving cold front bringing
the likelihood of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
* Low pressure moving along the front just south of New England
may bring a period of welcome rain Wednesday into Thursday.
* Heat will break on Wednesday, but humidity won`t return to
comfortable levels until Friday.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
Models are now more in line with the cold front sagging
southward across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Ahead of
the front, high temperatures are forecast to again rise to
between 90 and 95 degrees, with heat indices reaching 96-102,
highest in northern CT and in RI and interior southeast MA.
The front will provide the focus for more numerous showers and
thunderstorms than today or Monday. CAPE will be moderately
high, but there is little in the way of shear to support
organized severe storms. With that much heat and humidity, there
undoubtedly will be a isolated severe storm that pops up,
however. Also, there could be localized street flooding with
any slow-moving storms.
Wednesday and Thursday...
The front slips just south of New England then stalls, with
weak low pressure traveling along it. We will have much cooler
northeast wind flow, with highs only from 76-83, bringing an
end to the heat wave. Ensembles signal a decent chance of a
much-needed rather widespread soaking rainfall from Wednesday
into Thursday, with the highest probabilities Wednesday night.
There could be an isolated rumble of thunder, mainly along the
south coast. Rainfall totals could approach 1 to 1.5 inches in
some areas. Tough to forecast this when we`ve been so dry...will
fine tune as time goes on.
Friday through Sunday...
Significant model differences Friday through Sunday.
Ensembles still show clearing skies Friday and mainly dry
weather through the weekend. But operational ECMWF shows strong
upper low cutting off to our west, becoming negatively tilted,
and spawning another coastal low that brings additional rain
chances here Friday and Saturday. GFS also has upper low
developing over SNE with coastal low and rain chances in
easternmost SNE Saturday. In any case, cooler weather prevails
through the weekend. Stay tuned for more revisions in upcoming
forecasts for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. Areas of IFR in stratus expected towards the south
coast late. Light SW winds.
Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Mainly VFR. IFR stratus more likely to persist towards the
south coast around daybreak. Brief periods of MVFR in any
afternoon showers or thunderstorms. SW winds 5-10 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt.
Monday night...High confidence.
VFR. SW winds 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts for southeast MA.
KBOS...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty as to
whether any TSRA makes it to the terminal this afternoon.
Greatest risk, though still low, is no sooner than 20z.
KBDL...Moderate confidence in TAF due to uncertainty as to
whether any TSRA makes it to the terminal this afternoon.
Greatest risk, though still low, is no sooner than 19z.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA
likely.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Monday night...High Confidence.
Tonight, SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas increase
to 5-6 ft on the southern waters tonight. Winds and seas
diminish some into Monday, with rough seas lingering across the
outer coastal waters the longest. Winds and seas increase once
again Monday evening and overnight.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely,
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Maximum Temperatures
August 7th:
BOS 98F - previously 98F [1924] (tied)
ORH 94F [1924]
PVD 95F - previously 95F [2001] (tied)
BDL 100F [1918]
August 8th:
BOS 96F [1983]
ORH 94F [1916]
PVD 95F [1909]
BDL 98F [2001]
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ002>023-026.
RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ236-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/GAF
NEAR TERM...Belk/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...Belk/BW/GAF
MARINE...BW/GAF
CLIMATE...Staff
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
238 PM PDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Dry, seasonable weather is expected to persist through
early this week. A deep marine layer will keep clouds along the
coast with slightly cooler than average temperatures along inland
valleys.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Overall seasonal summer weather continues to prevail
throughout Northwest California. A deep marine layer around 2500
feet alongside areas of smoke has kept many interior valleys in the
80s with only valleys further east and south reaching into the 90s.
Persistent marine stratus has kept the coast cool in the mid 60s.
The persistent cutoff low stuck offshore is expected to slowly
lumber northeast through Wednesday. This evolution should allow for
mostly stable weather. A persistent deep marine layer will allow for
strong nightly intrusions of stratus, keeping interior temperatures
slightly below average in the upper 80s to low 90s. Stubborn marine
status is expected along the coast with little more than broken
clouds likely through Monday.
With little wind to speak of and only modest afternoon mixing,
wildfire smoke is expected to gradually accumulate in interior
valleys. HRRR smoke guidance shows smoke coverage broadening over
the next couple of days, mostly in valleys to the north and east of
Willow Creek during diurnal winds. Air quality monitors currently
show unhealthy air quality near Willow Creek with conditions likely
to worsen at nearby locations in the coming days.
In contrast to the last week, the low is expected to swing mostly
dry desert air aloft over the area with monsoon moisture mostly
moving the the northeast. While model sounding show marginal MUCAPE
each afternoon, very dry air aloft will inhibit any significant
thunderstorm development. Some thunderstorms may still be possible
by midweek if the current track of the low changes.
Depending on the exact track of the low, significant forecast
uncertainty exists late in the week. Most cluster ensemble members
show similar weather continuing all week. But by next Friday, about
20% show weak ridging and hot temperatures behind the low while
about 50% show low pressure redeveloping offshore. Regardless most
model show slightly warmer and drier conditions throughout the area
Wednesday and beyond. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...Stratus continues along most of the N Coast as well as
the SW Humboldt and extreme N Mendocino coast. Ceiling heights have
risen to around 1500 feet in most areas. Per the McKinleyville
profiler, the marine layer has deepened further to around 3000 feet
during the past 6 hours. It appears that drier low-level air is
wrapping around the S periphery of the quasi-stationary low
offshore. Additionally, the low-level inversion is forecast to
weaken over the next 24 hours. As a result, although low clouds and
patchy fog are forecast to expand again overnight, more improvement
in ceilings is expected during the day Monday. At KUKI, skies are
expected to remain mostly clear, although low clouds may get close
again Monday morning, both from the W and S. Winds will be generally
light, although some gusts over 15 knots are expected at KUKI
through the early evening hours. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...A weak area of low pressure well offshore the N California
coast will meander through early in the coming week. Very light,
mostly southerly winds will continue through Tuesday. Seas will
continue to subside today and remain low through Wednesday.
Northerly breezes will develop by Wednesday evening as high
pressure rebuilds over the E Pacific. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and calm weather is expected through at least
Tuesday. A deep marine layer should move push far inland during the
next couple of days. Alongside smoke cover, interior temperatures
will likely be kept in the upper 80s to low 90s. There will be a
strong humidity gradient along interior valleys with minimum RH in
the low teens in eastern Trinity and Lake counties increasing into
the mid 30s closer to shore in places like Willow Creek. Overnight
recoveries will be good generally above 75 percent. Winds will be
gentle and diurnally driven, generally below 10 mph. As low pressure
approaches shore, some isolated ridges could see enhanced winds
above 15 mph in the afternoons. A slight warming and drying trend is
expected midweek. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&
$$
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
A cold front that extends from roughly Hebron, Nebraska to
Stockton, Kansas this afternoon is slowly making progress to the
southeast. Well behind this front...low level stratus filled in
across the local area today...from roughly I-80 north...which has
helped to hold down afternoon temperatures across this area. At
the same time...scattered weak thunderstorms have impacted parts
of the local area today...with the main line stretching across
south central Nebraska...and more isolated storms across sections
of north central Kansas. SPC meso analysis still shows significant
instability near and ahead of the surface front...and a marginal
risk for severe weather was added to a few of our counties across
north central Kansas around noon. If any storms are able to
develop and mature across north central Kansas through the early
evening hours...severe wind gusts with a lesser threat for hail
would be the primary concerns. Earlier runs of the HRRR hinted at
some convection developing across north central Kansas around
00Z...but more recent runs have pushed this a bit further
south...so overall confidence is strong/severe convection across
this area is not high.
A better chance for more scattered thunderstorm activity is
depicted further north after midnight...as the upper level
shortwave currently approaching the panhandle of Nebraska helps
give a nudge to secondary push of cooler air...which should cross
the local area by early Monday morning. Once this front reaches
central Kansas during the morning hours Monday...precipitation
chances will wane...and a very nice start to the work week is
expected across the local area with seasonably cool temperatures
across the board along with mostly sunny skies by afternoon.
Beyond Monday...dry weather is forecast through the end of the
work week and to start next weekend as high pressure aloft takes
control of the local weather pattern. This will also start another
rapid warming trend across the local area...with temperatures
again reaching the mid to upper 90s by Friday or Saturday
afternoon. The timing of the warmest temps next Saturday
coincides nicely with the axis of the upper level ridge extending
across the local area as it amplifies late in the week...with heat
index values near 100 degrees again appearing possible. Some
small pops were given by the model blend this afternoon for next
Saturday and Sunday nights...but given the upper level pattern and
weakness of next wave rounding the ridge...do not foresee a
significant chance for precipitation returning...after tonight...
in the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 7 2022
MVFR CIGs are expected to persist at the TAF sites into the early
morning hours Monday, starting to scatter out by 08/09Z or 08/10Z,
then becoming clear by Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
may be in the vicinity of the terminals through around 08/10Z, but
confidence is low regarding direct impacts to the terminals, so
handled that with VCSH/VCTS. Winds will be generally northerly up
to around 15kts through this evening, then diminishing to 10kts or
less tonight. Winds will shift to northeasterly late Monday
morning.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
616 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
As of 00 UTC, convection was largely confined [1] south of the
NWS GLD county warning area -- invof a WSW-ENE oriented
thermal/moisture boundary extending (roughly) from Springfield
(CO) to Garden City and Great Bend (KS) -- and [2] well to the
west along the Colorado Front Range (mainly north of Denver).
Extensive mid/upper level cloud cover (anvils) and outflow
emanating [most recently] from storms to the south have increased
convective inhibition over the region. While a moderately unstable
(1000-2000 J/kg mlcape) airmass persists -- considerable doubt
exists with regard to whether or not additional development and/or
downstream propagation (e.g. from the Colorado Front Range) will
occur. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent runs of the
HRRR suggest that subsequent development will be relegated south
of the aforementioned thermal/moisture boundary (far southwest KS)
and along the Colorado Front Range (I-25 corridor). If this trend
persists.. the Flood Watch for Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties (CO)
may need to be cancelled.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Forecast focus in on the storms expected this afternoon and
tonight.
A frontal boundary has stalled across the southern section of the
forecast area. South of the boundary, temperatures have risen into
the lower 100s while temperatures to the north side of the
boundary range from the lower 70s to the 90s with a tongue of
moisture present near the boundary where dewpoints are between
65-70 degrees. Across the far northern sections of the
area, isolated light rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms
have persisted and expanded in coverage. The weaker activity is
expected to persist into the afternoon and evening, but the area
of concern lies in closer proximity to the boundary where
convective elements have been developing and are working away at
the cap currently in place. A couple cells have managed to break
through along and on the boundary, but are struggling to break
through on the cool side. Further south, more storms have
developed, but it remains to be seen if any of those stronger
storms move into the area of the boundary. If they do, there could
be a few landspout tornadoes developing in the favorable low
level shear. Through the remainder of the evening and and
overnight hours north of the boundary, convective activity is
expected to expand with high precipitable water amounts
contributing to the likelihood of moderate to heavy rainfall rates
mainly over far east central Colorado into far west central
Kansas where there is the potential for flash flooding. This is
why a Flood Watch remains in place for the potential for Flash
Flooding across that area.
On Monday, the boundary is expected to move further south of the
area with cooler temperatures in the 80s across the area and
isolated to scattered shower activity through the day and into the
afternoon favoring the southwest and southern portions of the
forecast area. Moderate to heavy localized rainfall is possible,
but confidence is lower and the potential for severe storms is
also much lower with only general thunderstorms expected.
Tuesday the upper high pressure area and ridge expand over the
Rockies and High Plains regions with surface high pressure moving
further east over the Plains states and a weak lee trough
beginning to deepen along the Front Range turning the southeast
near surface flow more southerly. This will help bring dry
conditions and warmer temperatures to the region with highs in
middle 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
High pressure aloft is expected to gradually push east over the Tri-
State area by Thursday afternoon, remaining over the area through
the weekend. Beginning on Thursday, a lee trough is expected to
begin nudging south over the High Plains as a surface high moves
over the Four Corners. Friday, a surface high over the Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest is expected to broaden and push against the lee
trough. Should this occur the lee trough would be wedged between
areas of high pressure on either side, which could also create a
tighter pressure gradient and stronger winds over the Tri-State
area. Guidance suggests the lee trough will linger over the area as
we move into the weekend as it slowly shifts east.
Given the dominant upper high pattern, precipitation is not
anticipated through Saturday afternoon. A few storms may clip areas
generally west of KS Highway 25. Little to no rain accumulation is
anticipated during the long term. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the upper 80s to 90s through Thursday, increasing to the 90s
and lower 100s going into the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the
60s Wednesday night. Thursday night through the end of the period,
overnight lows are forecast to be in the 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Aug 7 2022
Showers and thunderstorms are possible at either terminal late
this evening and overnight (06-12Z Monday).. with the relative
best chance at GLD. Low ceilings /stratus/ are possible at either
terminal early Monday morning (09-14Z).. with the relative best
chance, once again, at the GLD terminal. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail.. with ceilings generally confined AOA ~10 KFT
AGL. 12-17 knot northerly winds (this afternoon) will become
light/variable overnight.. possibly remaining variable through the
duration of the TAF period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...VINCENT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1027 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Convection across the waters and along the coast has been bouncing
back and forth this evening. Had to increase PoPs to 30 pct from
the Cape southward not too long after the afternoon package as
shower and storm activity flared up, and was then able to move
onshore due to the sea breeze circulation shutting down. One storm
moving onshore near the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant even
generated a wind gust to 44 mph. The waters have since quieted
down for the moment, but the HRRR has been pretty consistent with
redevelopment of scattered showers across the waters pushing on
shore late tonight through the early morning. Have indulged the
HRRR, and pushed 20 pct PoPs westward to include all coastal
counties and the western portions of Seminole, Orange, and Osceola
Counties. Nudged 30 pct PoPs to include southwest Brevard and the
eastern Treasure Coast counties. The rest of the forecast remains
on track tonight. Mostly clear conditions, save for an isolated
shower, over the next few hours, then increasing rain chances over
the waters and along the coast. Overnight lows in the mid 70s
inland and upper 70s along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Fair amount of uncertainty in evolution of convective activity
tonight. Expecting at least VCSH from MLB-FPR starting around
05Z, and SUA carrying VCSH through the TAF package. Coverage and
intensity may increase enough to necessitate short fuse AMDs for
VCTS or even TEMPOs at coastal terminals, and possibly even inland
terminals, between 06Z and 12Z. Convection expected so subside
later in the morning for a few hours, followed by sea breeze
driven afternoon convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
expected as a mid level disturbance tracks westward over the local
Atlantic waters. Any storms will produce gusty winds and
occasional lightning strikes. The surface high pressure ridge
axis remains north of the waters, resulting in E/SE flow 10-15
kts. Seas 2-3 feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 90 75 92 / 20 40 10 30
MCO 75 93 75 95 / 10 60 10 50
MLB 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 10 40
VRB 77 91 75 92 / 30 40 20 40
LEE 75 92 75 94 / 10 60 20 60
SFB 75 92 75 94 / 20 60 10 50
ORL 78 94 77 95 / 10 60 10 50
FPR 77 90 75 91 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Haley/Pendergrast/Tollefsen