Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/06/22

National Weather Service Bismarck ND
826 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 With the cold frontal boundary having passed through and with heat indices dropping, allowed the Heat Advisory to expire on time at 8 pm CDT. Expanded shower chances this evening a little further north and east a little bit quicker based on latest trends. There remains questions as to whether a large cluster of severe storms over the vicinity of Aberdeen, SD will make it into the far southeastern forecast area (likely just Dickey County, if so). However, the cold frontal boundary seems to be winning out and pushing storms in a more easterly directly as it interacts with the cluster. That said, outflow from collapsed storms heading to the northwest has gradually produced additional storms on the northwestern side of the cluster. A few of these could sneak into south central or southeastern Dickey County over the next hour or so. For the most part, any storms reaching Dickey County will likely remain sub-severe. However, a severe gust as the outflow moves through is possible. UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Thunderstorms have developed along the cold frontal boundary in central South Dakota, or south of the forecast area. Storms are expected to continue firing further north and east through the evening. The environment is pretty favorable for severe weather once the cap breaks. However, it may or may not do so in time to impact the far southeastern forecast area before the frontal boundary pushes off to the southeast and the atmosphere stabilizes. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Thunderstorms, a few severe, may be possible in the southern James River Valley this evening before a front pushes through tonight. Well below normal temperatures are expected on Saturday. In the upper levels, an elongated trough sat over southern Canada while multiple embedded vort maxima, including one over the southern Canadian Prairies and another over the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface trough was over the Dakotas, from south central through northeast North Dakota. Hot and humid conditions were present ahead of the trough, with surface dew points in the 60s to low 70s. While behind the trough a drier air mass with modest cold air advection bringing more mild conditions to the north and west. As the surface trough moves into the James River Valley this evening, convection will be possible as the very moist boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates overlap the surface convergence. The question remains if convection can develop early enough along the boundary before it exits the Dickey, LaMoure, McIntosh area this evening. Most 12Z convection allowing models have the majority of activity southeast of this area, though it still looks reasonable that CAMs aren`t quite handling the potential early enough as RAP mass fields show strong convergence just after peak heating this evening in Dickey and LaMoure counties. The CAPE/shear parameter space should be adequate for severe weather, though mean wind and bulk shear vectors strongly aligned with the initiating boundary orientation will favor messy storm modes and some mitigation of severe potential. With MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective shear, a few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible with initially discrete cells. A small but non- zero tornado threat is possible along the front as boundary layer moisture is high and surface wind backing should locally enhance surface vorticity. Again the coverage and magnitude of severity will likely be impacted by storm mode and the progressing boundary, thus the inherited golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph hazards look reasonable. Additionally the threat for locally heavy rainfall exists with precipitable water values exceeding the NAEFS 97.5th climatological and some storm training possible before the surface boundary exits the James River area. While surface based convection should end with the exiting front, elevated overnight convection is possible in the same area as cold air advection aloft pushes through modest lingering MUCAPE. Tonight and Saturday will feature cooler temperatures with the post- frontal high building south through the region. As the upper trough and jet streak stall over North Dakota, isolated to scattered showers will be possible, more likely southwest. The presence of the low-level high pressure and dry air will work against the eastward extent of precipitation probability, though guidance still remains somewhat bullish in the central for PoPs. Forecast soundings show a healthy dry layer in the low to mid levels to work through tonight and Saturday, though this should eventually erode in the southwest. This forecast cut back previous PoPs somewhat but left at least some slight chances to begin the night as timing of dry air erosion is uncertain. Notable precipitation totals are not likely with the same reasoning. Saturday, with the cooler air mass, cloud cover, and some rain chances, will be much cooler than today. Widespread highs in the 60s are forecast, and even low 60s in the southwest where cloud cover should be more prevalent. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Mild temperatures on Sunday, then hot temperatures return next week. Sunday, temperatures will remain seasonably cool but guidance differs on the possibility of a modest rebound. The difference comes from the timing and amplitude of the Pacific Northwest shortwave and lingering cloud cover and progression of the previous air mass. The EC and ECS depict a quicker rebound with highs in the 70s while GFS/NAM and associated MOS keep highs in the 60s. NBM probabilities are on the warmer side closer to the 70s, though there may be some bias correction processes from hot temperatures this season impacting the solution. If cloud cover persists longer on Sunday, the colder solution should be favored. However the low amplitude nature of this northwest shortwave may not produce enough cloud cover to significantly keep temperatures from rebounding, and thus the current NBM probabilities of mild but somewhat warmer temperatures looks valid. A western ridge builds again next week, bringing temperatures back to the 80s and 90s, with very few precipitation chances. This pattern persists during the week as a deep closed low will sit over the eastern Pacific and stronger flow aloft remains to the north. Guidance does show this pattern potentially breaking down by week`s end, with agreement displayed in the WPC 500mb clusters. Details are few at this time, especially with inherent synoptic uncertainty in how deep closed lows move into the mean flow. NBM precipitation probabilities do bring slight probabilities by Friday, indicating there is some signal in the day 7+ period from the global solutions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period. Showers are possible this evening, through the night, and into the day Saturday primarily for the southern three terminals. With a very dry atmosphere aloft, there is a question as to how much precipitation will even reach the ground. Therefore, kept any showers as vicinity for the time being. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken SHORT TERM...AE LONG TERM...AE AVIATION...Telken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Cold front slowed down and overriding LLJ orientated over the frontal zone, while the instabilty axis (MUCAPE 2000 J/KG) is still aligned immediately ahead of this front. This is causing additional development southwest to northeast and with slower front timing this means ongoing activity through the early morning hours with heavy rain/lightning activity. While instability has decreased some, there is enough combined with strong effective shear for at least potential marginal severe potential the next few hours, though RAP shows a weakening trend as the front starts to kick east (finally). UPDATE Issued at 733 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 We are monitoring thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front that is now northwest of Fargo to near Baudette. Clusters of storms (one severe) develop immediately ahead of the front along an axis of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/KG range. As forcing will be limited to the convergence zone near the front expansion/coverage is somewhat uncertain, though CAMs still support the idea of a slow moving linear complex eventually forming ahead of the front. Effective shear 45-55kt in additional to the high instability will continue to support the potential for severe hail, with trends toward more pulse type convection currently. Beside increased low level vorticity near the front there isn`t a good set-up for low level shear/tornado threat (though there is a non zero chance if a cell remains rooted near the frontal zone over the next few hours). DCAPE is in the 1000-1300 J/KG so downburst winds will be a threat. PWATs are very high ahead of this front so heavy rain/localized flash flooding remains a threat with slower moving storms. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Convective chances and strength are the main challenges for the period. Southwesterly flow aloft with a shortwave moving through Canada that has helped push a surface trough axis and cold front into our CWA. Out ahead of the front there is quite a bit of moisture, with dew points into the upper 60s to low 70s and temps have warmed into the 90s. Heat index values in the southwestern counties have topped out above 100 in spots as expected so will continue with the headline we have going. The mid level temps are also very warm so most of the region has been capped but there has been some elevated showers and thunderstorms in the warm air advection ahead of the trough axis. There is a cu field trying to get going along the trough axis, but seem to be struggling to gain any depth. Fairly narrow band of instability stretching from central SD into east central ND along the surface trough axis. Still capped with 700 mb temps around 14 C. The main cold front is currently over the Devils Lake Basin lagging behind the trough axis a bit. There will be good forcing coming as the frontal boundary drops down from the current position in the Devils Lake Basin. Many of the CAMs have convection developing quickly along the cold front in the 23 to 03Z time frame. There is some question of convective mode and how quickly severe impacts will evolve. If storms are fairly discrete along the boundary there will be some threat of large hail and even an isolated tornado as there is some backing winds right along the boundary, although high LCLs will limit any tornado threat. There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE, and winds up to 70 mph will quickly become a threat, especially as the storms become more linear. There is also a threat of flash flooding, with PWAT values up to 1.8 and some indications of training along the front. HREF continues to show strong updraft helicity tracks concentrated from southeastern ND into northwest/west central MN, although CAMs are still showing a lot of variation between convective mode and timing. At this point, see little reason to deviate from the messaging we have going. The cold front will push through the rest of the forecast area tonight, and convection should become less intense later tonight, although a few of the CAMs try and break out some more strong cells along the mid level boundary after midnight. Not sold on this solution, but will continue to keep POPs going across our south for much of the night. Cool and breezy conditions on Saturday with northwesterly surface winds and temps in the 60s and 70s behind the front. Some showers will linger into Saturday and Saturday night with weak ripples in the west southwesterly flow aloft, but instability will be very weak and nothing severe is expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Sunday... Most of the area remains on the northern/cool side of the polar jet stream on Sunday. However a weak H5 shortwave trof is timed to pass across SD and southern ND, with scattered showers possible through the afternoon and evening across southeast ND and west-central MN. Daytime highs expected to barely make 70 on Sunday, and low temperatures drop to around 50 Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds fairly light out of the north. Monday through Thursday... Temperatures expected to rebound near to above normal through the mid week period, as a flat H5 ridge pushes steadily across from the PacNW and into the Northern Plains. Current expectations are for mainly fair skies and dry conditions through the period... with highs in the 80s and lows in the middle 50s. Friday... Models expect a deepening west coast H5 trof to develop as we head into the late week and weekend periods, with southwest flow aloft leaning into the Northern Plains region. With that should be a an increasing southerly low level flow, a destabilizing airmass, and increasing risk for thunderstorms... late on Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 733 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Main aviation concern is thunderstorm activity that is most likely to remain along an axis from southeast ND to northwest MN. Stronger storms will be capable of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this evening. Otherwise, VFR should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN. Additional light showers can`t be ruled out behind the front but the chances are lower and activity would be weaker/lower in coverage. Winds are shifting to the northwest with this front around 12kt but should decrease below 12kt later this evening before increasing again. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Gust AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Multiple rounds of slow moving thunderstorms expected at times tonight into Saturday morning and again Saturday night. Pockets of heavy rain with isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible, but the flooding risk is low given the ongoing drought conditions. Main concern through tonight will deal with what should be multiple rounds of convection that develops along a cold front that this afternoon stretches from the northwest corner of MN back to the central ND/SD border. This front will enter our northwest CWA around midnight, move through the Twin Cities Saturday morning, clear Albert Lea and Eau Claire Saturday afternoon. This front will be more or less oriented parallel to the h85-h3 flow, which will mean slow progress for the front. This type of setup tends to favor an overrunning setup for convection develop, with greatest coverage of activity typically concentrate near and on the cool side of the boundary. Often with slower storm motion and training of storms. The NAM/GFS/RAP all increase PWATS on Saturday to up around 2.2" of rain, so this will set the stage for heavy rain. The best signal for heavy rain Saturday afternoon through Saturday night is across southern MN into western WI, with the greatest uncertainty for where the northern bound of this heavy rain will setup, which is conveniently across the Twin Cities metro and the worst of the D2 drought we have in place. 48 hour Probability Matched Mean (PMM) QPF from the HRRR is showing areas areas with 5-7" of rain, so the signal definitely remains for seeing heavy rain Saturday night. What`s trick with this forecast is that each round of storms will in turn impact where subsequent rounds end up. Looks like the greatest severe risk will remain northwest of the MPX CWA this period, but what we`ll be watching are storms that are forecast to develop tonight between Sioux Falls and Aberdeen in SD. They would track east from there, but models differ on whether this would track more into central MN or go on a trajectory closer to the Twin Cities. What happens with these storms will help determine how far south the front makes it Saturday afternoon, when storms are again expected to erupt along it and slowly sag south through the night. Severe weather doesn`t look to be all that big of a front thanks to weak lapse rates, but some heavy rain could certainly dampen any plans you may have to attend, say a county fair, in southern MN. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 KEY MESSAGE: - Temperatures will cool down Sunday and Monday, with another period of dry, warm, and uneventful weather the rest of next week. The series of shortwaves off to our west will continue to advance eastward through our region which allows for a continuation of increased chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend`s conclusion. Central and Southern MN counties should anticipate to see an additional tenth to quarter an inch of rainfall whereas Western WI could see potentially a quarter to a half-inch with localized higher amounts associated with heavier rainfall. Precipitation will gradually decrease from west to east as the final shortwave departs our area overnight on Sunday. Skies will gradually clear as surface high pressure builds in. Any rainfall that happened over the weekend, will most likely be the last that we see through the forecast period. Monday is shaping up to the best day "weather wise" of the week as flow becomes more zonal aloft. Temperatures on Monday will be below-normal in the upper 70`s for most areas and under mostly sunny skies. Tuesday will begin our next warm-up with near normal temperatures in the low 80`s. Wednesday through Friday, strong upper-level ridging will build from the west allowing for temperatures to return to the mid to upper 80`s. Dew points look to remain relatively steady ranging from 55-60F. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Northeast to southwest oriented cold front that is just now entering northwest MN will slowly sag south across the MPX area late tonight through Saturday. As the front moves through a terminal, it will result in a several hour long window where showers and storms will be possible. Given the uncertainty in coverage and timing of storms along the boundary, kept thunderstorm mention in the 00z TAF set in the prob30 category. Have mostly VFR TAFs as well, though any terminal that gets a good soaking rain with the fropa, will have a chance of developing some MVFR cigs in the post frontal environment. KMSP...Current forecast has a 50% chance of TSRA starting between 13-14z with a brief break before another round of precipitation develop in the afternoon. Opted to flavor the Prob30 to start a little later in the period, closer to when our PoPs ramp back up. Right now, we have the highest chances for precip at MSP (60% or higher) coming in at 20z Sat and continuing through the end of this period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in A.M. Otherwise, VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...WFO MPX AVIATION...BPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 With only some residual mid-level cloudiness remaining from this mornings storm activity across central and southwest Oklahoma, afternoon sunshine heated much of our area well into triple digits with heat indices near to exceeding 105 degrees. Will keep our Heat Advisory going through this evening across all but portions of northwest Oklahoma. Visible satellite showing a CU field bubbling up across southeast Oklahoma with a weak cap and up to lower-end moderate surface based instability. HRRR showing some reflectivity echos by late afternoon and are already some light radar echos across far southeast Oklahoma. As a result, have introduced low storm POPs through the remainder of this afternoon across southeast Oklahoma. Should any storms develop across our southeast, not expecting them to be severe but DCAPE values are sufficient for 40- 50 mph wind gusts under any strong storm. Storm POPs across our southeast will diminish by this evening as we lose our heating. Otherwise, south winds could be a little bit gusty by late Saturday morning with the start of vertical mixing into a strong low-level jet that will develop tonight. Saturday afternoon will again see triple digit high temperatures (100-105 degrees) with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees across much of central through northcentral Oklahoma, which is where a Heat Advisory will be in effect during the afternoon through mid-evening. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Overall, no big changes were made to the extended forecast. A shortwave trough is expected to move across the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday. The most recent deterministic EC model is not as amplified with this feature compared to the past several days. Regardless, it will help push a cold front near northwest Oklahoma by Monday. Meanwhile, a PV anomaly will move east to west across Oklahoma late Sunday into Monday. Not sure if much will occur with this feature, perhaps maybe an increase in mid to high clouds. Another shortwave trough is expected to rotate around the eastern part of a mid and upper ridge Tuesday into Wednesday. With the front and potential outflow boundaries in the area, at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday through about Wednesday. By late next week, models predict the ridge will build back over the central U.S. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue. There is a low probability for convection late tonight/Saturday morning along a line from near KPNC/KSWO to KOKC/KOUN to KLAW to KSPS. The probability of any terminal being affected is too low to include in the TAFs. Any convection would be associated with mid- level ceilings. Otherwise, light southeast winds should veer toward the south and increase during the daytime before weakening during the evening. KWWR may experience some low-level wind shear (LLWS) associated with a modest low-level jet tonight as well. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 100 76 97 / 20 20 0 10 Hobart OK 78 103 77 100 / 10 20 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 78 103 77 100 / 0 20 0 10 Gage OK 78 103 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 78 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ006>008-012- 013-018>020-024>032. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Key Messages: 1. Heat ramps back up today and over the weekend. Heat advisory today in west, area-wide on Saturday. 2. Isolated convection this afternoon/evening mainly east of Highway 65. 3. Low-end potential for a few elevated showers/storms west of Highway 65 late tonight into Saturday morning. 4. Isolated to scattered convection over the weekend, with more widespread convective potential Monday into Wednesday. 5. "Cooler" temperatures early next week, with a gradual warm-up into next weekend. .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 KSGF radar this afternoon shows a few isolated showers/thunderstorms over the region, most of which were east of the Highway 65 corridor. Expect this to remain the status quo for the remainder of afternoon into early evening with convection diminishing with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Heat is still the primary concern for the remainder of today as highs in the 90s combining with dewpoints of 69-75 degrees have lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for SE Kansas and western Missouri counties where the mid 100 heat indices are more common. Overnight lows remain very warm tonight, ranging from the low 70s over the eastern Ozarks to mid/upper 70s over SE Kansas and far western Missouri. This will limit recovery from the daytime heat. There is a weak signal in a few Hi-res models (RAP/HRRR) for development of some isolated/scattered elevated convection late overnight into Saturday morning for areas west of the Highway 65 corridor. RAP shows lift due to isentropic upglide in the 850-800 mb layer, with uncapped parcels lifted from that layer having around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE to access. Better precipitation chances remain over central Kansas and west of our CWA where the LLJ is stronger (30-35 kt vs 20-25 kt for our area). Have introduced slight chance PoPs for areas west of Springfield (15-20%) to cover this conditional threat, though dry air in the mid/upper levels could limit coverage or convective initiation entirely. Regardless, if convection develops it will not be severe. Excessive heat is the main story as we head into Saturday and Sunday as the upper-level ridge builds overhead and southerly winds advect in even warmer temperatures. The current forecast calls for highs in the mid-upper 90s from southeast Kansas into the Rolla area, with low to mid 90s for south-central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Dewpoints in the upper-60s to mid 70s on Saturday (very slightly lower on Sunday) will lead to maximum heat index values between 100-108 on Saturday and low to mid 100s on Sunday. As a result, have expanded the Heat Advisory on Saturday to include the entire CWA between 12 PM - 9 PM. Will need to watch the temp/dewpoint trend for Sunday to determine whether or not an additional Heat Advisory will be needed for that day. Additional isolated diurnal convection is possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evenings for areas east of Highway 65 as a weak-upper low east of our area interacts with our moist airmass. No severe weather is expected and most locations should remain dry. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Sunday Night - Wednesday: Generally good agreement aside from some slight timing differences regarding an upper-level trough traversing the northern periphery of the ridge through the upper-midwest into New England during this timeframe. The cold front associated with this feature is still progged to push southward into and through the Missouri Ozarks region, but has slowed down relative to previous runs. Therefore, the more widespread precipitation chances (40-60%) are generally relegated to Monday and Tuesday, with some lingering light precipitation potential (20-40% chances) over our southern CWA on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southward. The WPC Cluster Analysis tool further backs up the higher precipitation potential being on Monday and Tuesday with all 4 ensemble clusters having at least some measurable precipitation across the area, while the signal is more mixed for Wednesday depending on how quickly the front moves south. As for precipitation amounts, GEFS precipitation probabilities are still hinting at a lighter precipitation event and not a washout. Probabilities of greater than 0.5" of rain are only 25-50% south of I-44 and less for the northwestern half of our area. Probabilities for greater than 1" are around or less than 10% area wide. While these clouds and rain will help "cool" temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the area on Monday- Wednesday, the rainfall amounts will likely not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought. Thursday - Next Weekend: Mid-range ensemble guidance and the WPC Cluster Analysis Tool show another strong indication of the an upper-level ridge building back into the central Plains from next Thursday into the following weekend. This will result in a drier period for late next week with temperatures gradually returning to slightly above average in the low to mid 90s area-wide. The big difference during this timeframe will be drier and less humid conditions with dewpoints in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. The one exception may be isolated thunderstorm development late tonight over western Missouri. If this scenario were to occur, brief reductions to MVFR or IFR would occur. We have not yet inserted this scenario into any of the TAFs given the low confidence. Surface winds will generally remain out of the southeast to south and will become gusty Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to around 20 knots are expected. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078- 088-089-093-101. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rothstein LONG TERM...Rothstein AVIATION...Schaumann