Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/06/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
826 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
With the cold frontal boundary having passed through and with heat
indices dropping, allowed the Heat Advisory to expire on time at 8
pm CDT. Expanded shower chances this evening a little further
north and east a little bit quicker based on latest trends.
There remains questions as to whether a large cluster of severe
storms over the vicinity of Aberdeen, SD will make it into the far
southeastern forecast area (likely just Dickey County, if so).
However, the cold frontal boundary seems to be winning out and
pushing storms in a more easterly directly as it interacts with
the cluster. That said, outflow from collapsed storms heading to
the northwest has gradually produced additional storms on the
northwestern side of the cluster. A few of these could sneak into
south central or southeastern Dickey County over the next hour or
so. For the most part, any storms reaching Dickey County will
likely remain sub-severe. However, a severe gust as the outflow
moves through is possible.
UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Thunderstorms have developed along the cold frontal boundary in
central South Dakota, or south of the forecast area. Storms are
expected to continue firing further north and east through the
evening. The environment is pretty favorable for severe weather
once the cap breaks. However, it may or may not do so in time to
impact the far southeastern forecast area before the frontal
boundary pushes off to the southeast and the atmosphere
stabilizes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Thunderstorms, a few severe, may be possible in the southern James
River Valley this evening before a front pushes through tonight.
Well below normal temperatures are expected on Saturday.
In the upper levels, an elongated trough sat over southern Canada
while multiple embedded vort maxima, including one over the
southern Canadian Prairies and another over the Pacific Northwest
coast. A surface trough was over the Dakotas, from south central
through northeast North Dakota. Hot and humid conditions were
present ahead of the trough, with surface dew points in the 60s to
low 70s. While behind the trough a drier air mass with modest
cold air advection bringing more mild conditions to the north and
west.
As the surface trough moves into the James River Valley this
evening, convection will be possible as the very moist boundary
layer and steep mid-level lapse rates overlap the surface
convergence. The question remains if convection can develop early
enough along the boundary before it exits the Dickey, LaMoure,
McIntosh area this evening. Most 12Z convection allowing models
have the majority of activity southeast of this area, though it
still looks reasonable that CAMs aren`t quite handling the
potential early enough as RAP mass fields show strong convergence
just after peak heating this evening in Dickey and LaMoure
counties. The CAPE/shear parameter space should be adequate for
severe weather, though mean wind and bulk shear vectors strongly
aligned with the initiating boundary orientation will favor messy
storm modes and some mitigation of severe potential. With MLCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective shear, a few severe
thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts are
possible with initially discrete cells. A small but non-
zero tornado threat is possible along the front as boundary layer
moisture is high and surface wind backing should locally enhance
surface vorticity. Again the coverage and magnitude of severity
will likely be impacted by storm mode and the progressing
boundary, thus the inherited golf ball size hail and wind gusts to
70 mph hazards look reasonable. Additionally the threat for
locally heavy rainfall exists with precipitable water values
exceeding the NAEFS 97.5th climatological and some storm training
possible before the surface boundary exits the James River area.
While surface based convection should end with the exiting front,
elevated overnight convection is possible in the same area as cold
air advection aloft pushes through modest lingering MUCAPE.
Tonight and Saturday will feature cooler temperatures with the
post- frontal high building south through the region. As the upper
trough and jet streak stall over North Dakota, isolated to
scattered showers will be possible, more likely southwest. The
presence of the low-level high pressure and dry air will work
against the eastward extent of precipitation probability, though
guidance still remains somewhat bullish in the central for PoPs.
Forecast soundings show a healthy dry layer in the low to mid
levels to work through tonight and Saturday, though this should
eventually erode in the southwest. This forecast cut back previous
PoPs somewhat but left at least some slight chances to begin the
night as timing of dry air erosion is uncertain. Notable
precipitation totals are not likely with the same reasoning.
Saturday, with the cooler air mass, cloud cover, and some rain
chances, will be much cooler than today. Widespread highs in the
60s are forecast, and even low 60s in the southwest where cloud
cover should be more prevalent.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Mild temperatures on Sunday, then hot temperatures return next
week.
Sunday, temperatures will remain seasonably cool but guidance
differs on the possibility of a modest rebound. The difference
comes from the timing and amplitude of the Pacific Northwest
shortwave and lingering cloud cover and progression of the
previous air mass. The EC and ECS depict a quicker rebound with
highs in the 70s while GFS/NAM and associated MOS keep highs in
the 60s. NBM probabilities are on the warmer side closer to the
70s, though there may be some bias correction processes from hot
temperatures this season impacting the solution. If cloud cover
persists longer on Sunday, the colder solution should be favored.
However the low amplitude nature of this northwest shortwave may
not produce enough cloud cover to significantly keep temperatures
from rebounding, and thus the current NBM probabilities of mild
but somewhat warmer temperatures looks valid.
A western ridge builds again next week, bringing temperatures back
to the 80s and 90s, with very few precipitation chances. This
pattern persists during the week as a deep closed low will sit
over the eastern Pacific and stronger flow aloft remains to the
north. Guidance does show this pattern potentially breaking down
by week`s end, with agreement displayed in the WPC 500mb clusters.
Details are few at this time, especially with inherent synoptic
uncertainty in how deep closed lows move into the mean flow. NBM
precipitation probabilities do bring slight probabilities by
Friday, indicating there is some signal in the day 7+ period from
the global solutions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period.
Showers are possible this evening, through the night, and into the
day Saturday primarily for the southern three terminals. With a
very dry atmosphere aloft, there is a question as to how much
precipitation will even reach the ground. Therefore, kept any
showers as vicinity for the time being.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...Telken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Cold front slowed down and overriding LLJ orientated over the
frontal zone, while the instabilty axis (MUCAPE 2000 J/KG) is
still aligned immediately ahead of this front. This is causing
additional development southwest to northeast and with slower
front timing this means ongoing activity through the early
morning hours with heavy rain/lightning activity. While
instability has decreased some, there is enough combined with
strong effective shear for at least potential marginal severe
potential the next few hours, though RAP shows a weakening trend
as the front starts to kick east (finally).
UPDATE Issued at 733 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
We are monitoring thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front
that is now northwest of Fargo to near Baudette. Clusters of
storms (one severe) develop immediately ahead of the front along
an axis of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/KG range. As forcing will be
limited to the convergence zone near the front expansion/coverage
is somewhat uncertain, though CAMs still support the idea of a
slow moving linear complex eventually forming ahead of the front.
Effective shear 45-55kt in additional to the high instability
will continue to support the potential for severe hail, with
trends toward more pulse type convection currently. Beside
increased low level vorticity near the front there isn`t a good
set-up for low level shear/tornado threat (though there is a non
zero chance if a cell remains rooted near the frontal zone over
the next few hours). DCAPE is in the 1000-1300 J/KG so downburst
winds will be a threat. PWATs are very high ahead of this front so
heavy rain/localized flash flooding remains a threat with slower
moving storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Convective chances and strength are the main challenges for the
period.
Southwesterly flow aloft with a shortwave moving through Canada
that has helped push a surface trough axis and cold front into our
CWA. Out ahead of the front there is quite a bit of moisture, with
dew points into the upper 60s to low 70s and temps have warmed
into the 90s. Heat index values in the southwestern counties have
topped out above 100 in spots as expected so will continue with
the headline we have going. The mid level temps are also very warm
so most of the region has been capped but there has been some
elevated showers and thunderstorms in the warm air advection ahead
of the trough axis. There is a cu field trying to get going along
the trough axis, but seem to be struggling to gain any depth.
Fairly narrow band of instability stretching from central SD into
east central ND along the surface trough axis. Still capped with
700 mb temps around 14 C. The main cold front is currently over
the Devils Lake Basin lagging behind the trough axis a bit. There
will be good forcing coming as the frontal boundary drops down
from the current position in the Devils Lake Basin. Many of the
CAMs have convection developing quickly along the cold front in
the 23 to 03Z time frame. There is some question of convective
mode and how quickly severe impacts will evolve. If storms are
fairly discrete along the boundary there will be some threat of
large hail and even an isolated tornado as there is some backing
winds right along the boundary, although high LCLs will limit any
tornado threat. There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE, and
winds up to 70 mph will quickly become a threat, especially as the
storms become more linear. There is also a threat of flash
flooding, with PWAT values up to 1.8 and some indications of
training along the front. HREF continues to show strong updraft
helicity tracks concentrated from southeastern ND into
northwest/west central MN, although CAMs are still showing a lot
of variation between convective mode and timing. At this point,
see little reason to deviate from the messaging we have going.
The cold front will push through the rest of the forecast area
tonight, and convection should become less intense later tonight,
although a few of the CAMs try and break out some more strong
cells along the mid level boundary after midnight. Not sold on
this solution, but will continue to keep POPs going across our
south for much of the night. Cool and breezy conditions on
Saturday with northwesterly surface winds and temps in the 60s and
70s behind the front. Some showers will linger into Saturday and
Saturday night with weak ripples in the west southwesterly flow
aloft, but instability will be very weak and nothing severe is
expected.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Sunday... Most of the area remains on the northern/cool side of the
polar jet stream on Sunday. However a weak H5 shortwave trof is
timed to pass across SD and southern ND, with scattered showers
possible through the afternoon and evening across southeast ND and
west-central MN. Daytime highs expected to barely make 70 on Sunday,
and low temperatures drop to around 50 Sunday night into Monday
morning. Winds fairly light out of the north.
Monday through Thursday... Temperatures expected to rebound near to
above normal through the mid week period, as a flat H5 ridge pushes
steadily across from the PacNW and into the Northern Plains. Current
expectations are for mainly fair skies and dry conditions through
the period... with highs in the 80s and lows in the middle 50s.
Friday... Models expect a deepening west coast H5 trof to develop as
we head into the late week and weekend periods, with southwest flow
aloft leaning into the Northern Plains region. With that should be a
an increasing southerly low level flow, a destabilizing airmass, and
increasing risk for thunderstorms... late on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 733 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Main aviation concern is thunderstorm activity that is most
likely to remain along an axis from southeast ND to northwest MN.
Stronger storms will be capable of brief MVFR/IFR conditions this
evening. Otherwise, VFR should prevail across eastern ND and
northwest MN. Additional light showers can`t be ruled out behind
the front but the chances are lower and activity would be
weaker/lower in coverage. Winds are shifting to the northwest
with this front around 12kt but should decrease below 12kt later
this evening before increasing again.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Multiple rounds of slow moving thunderstorms expected at times
tonight into Saturday morning and again Saturday night. Pockets of
heavy rain with isolated amounts in excess of 3 inches are
possible, but the flooding risk is low given the ongoing drought
conditions.
Main concern through tonight will deal with what should be multiple
rounds of convection that develops along a cold front that this
afternoon stretches from the northwest corner of MN back to the
central ND/SD border. This front will enter our northwest CWA around
midnight, move through the Twin Cities Saturday morning, clear
Albert Lea and Eau Claire Saturday afternoon. This front will be
more or less oriented parallel to the h85-h3 flow, which will mean
slow progress for the front. This type of setup tends to favor an
overrunning setup for convection develop, with greatest coverage of
activity typically concentrate near and on the cool side of the
boundary. Often with slower storm motion and training of storms.
The NAM/GFS/RAP all increase PWATS on Saturday to up around 2.2" of
rain, so this will set the stage for heavy rain. The best signal for
heavy rain Saturday afternoon through Saturday night is across
southern MN into western WI, with the greatest uncertainty for where
the northern bound of this heavy rain will setup, which is
conveniently across the Twin Cities metro and the worst of the D2
drought we have in place. 48 hour Probability Matched Mean (PMM) QPF
from the HRRR is showing areas areas with 5-7" of rain, so the
signal definitely remains for seeing heavy rain Saturday night.
What`s trick with this forecast is that each round of storms will in
turn impact where subsequent rounds end up. Looks like the greatest
severe risk will remain northwest of the MPX CWA this period, but
what we`ll be watching are storms that are forecast to develop
tonight between Sioux Falls and Aberdeen in SD. They would track
east from there, but models differ on whether this would track more
into central MN or go on a trajectory closer to the Twin Cities.
What happens with these storms will help determine how far south the
front makes it Saturday afternoon, when storms are again expected to
erupt along it and slowly sag south through the night. Severe
weather doesn`t look to be all that big of a front thanks to weak
lapse rates, but some heavy rain could certainly dampen any plans
you may have to attend, say a county fair, in southern MN.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
KEY MESSAGE:
- Temperatures will cool down Sunday and Monday, with another period
of dry, warm, and uneventful weather the rest of next week.
The series of shortwaves off to our west will continue to advance
eastward through our region which allows for a continuation of
increased chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms through the
weekend`s conclusion. Central and Southern MN counties should
anticipate to see an additional tenth to quarter an inch of rainfall
whereas Western WI could see potentially a quarter to a half-inch
with localized higher amounts associated with heavier rainfall.
Precipitation will gradually decrease from west to east as the final
shortwave departs our area overnight on Sunday. Skies will gradually
clear as surface high pressure builds in. Any rainfall that happened
over the weekend, will most likely be the last that we see through
the forecast period. Monday is shaping up to the best day "weather
wise" of the week as flow becomes more zonal aloft. Temperatures on
Monday will be below-normal in the upper 70`s for most areas and
under mostly sunny skies. Tuesday will begin our next warm-up with
near normal temperatures in the low 80`s. Wednesday through Friday,
strong upper-level ridging will build from the west allowing for
temperatures to return to the mid to upper 80`s. Dew points look to
remain relatively steady ranging from 55-60F.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Northeast to southwest oriented cold front that is just now entering
northwest MN will slowly sag south across the MPX area late tonight
through Saturday. As the front moves through a terminal, it will
result in a several hour long window where showers and storms will be
possible. Given the uncertainty in coverage and timing of storms
along the boundary, kept thunderstorm mention in the 00z TAF set in
the prob30 category. Have mostly VFR TAFs as well, though any
terminal that gets a good soaking rain with the fropa, will have a
chance of developing some MVFR cigs in the post frontal environment.
KMSP...Current forecast has a 50% chance of TSRA starting between
13-14z with a brief break before another round of precipitation
develop in the afternoon. Opted to flavor the Prob30 to start a
little later in the period, closer to when our PoPs ramp back up.
Right now, we have the highest chances for precip at MSP (60% or
higher) coming in at 20z Sat and continuing through the end of this
period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in A.M. Otherwise, VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...WFO MPX
AVIATION...BPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
With only some residual mid-level cloudiness remaining from this
mornings storm activity across central and southwest Oklahoma,
afternoon sunshine heated much of our area well into triple digits
with heat indices near to exceeding 105 degrees. Will keep our Heat
Advisory going through this evening across all but portions of
northwest Oklahoma. Visible satellite showing a CU field bubbling
up across southeast Oklahoma with a weak cap and up to lower-end
moderate surface based instability. HRRR showing some reflectivity
echos by late afternoon and are already some light radar echos
across far southeast Oklahoma. As a result, have introduced low
storm POPs through the remainder of this afternoon across southeast
Oklahoma. Should any storms develop across our southeast, not
expecting them to be severe but DCAPE values are sufficient for 40-
50 mph wind gusts under any strong storm. Storm POPs across our
southeast will diminish by this evening as we lose our heating.
Otherwise, south winds could be a little bit gusty by late Saturday
morning with the start of vertical mixing into a strong low-level
jet that will develop tonight. Saturday afternoon will again see
triple digit high temperatures (100-105 degrees) with heat indices
exceeding 105 degrees across much of central through northcentral
Oklahoma, which is where a Heat Advisory will be in effect during
the afternoon through mid-evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Overall, no big changes were made to the extended forecast. A
shortwave trough is expected to move across the northern Rockies
and Plains on Sunday. The most recent deterministic EC model is
not as amplified with this feature compared to the past several
days. Regardless, it will help push a cold front near northwest
Oklahoma by Monday. Meanwhile, a PV anomaly will move east to west
across Oklahoma late Sunday into Monday. Not sure if much will
occur with this feature, perhaps maybe an increase in mid to high
clouds.
Another shortwave trough is expected to rotate around the eastern
part of a mid and upper ridge Tuesday into Wednesday. With the
front and potential outflow boundaries in the area, at least
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through about Wednesday. By late next week, models predict the
ridge will build back over the central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue.
There is a low probability for convection late tonight/Saturday
morning along a line from near KPNC/KSWO to KOKC/KOUN to KLAW to
KSPS. The probability of any terminal being affected is too low to
include in the TAFs. Any convection would be associated with mid-
level ceilings.
Otherwise, light southeast winds should veer toward the south and
increase during the daytime before weakening during the evening.
KWWR may experience some low-level wind shear (LLWS) associated
with a modest low-level jet tonight as well.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 100 76 97 / 20 20 0 10
Hobart OK 78 103 77 100 / 10 20 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 78 103 77 100 / 0 20 0 10
Gage OK 78 103 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 78 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ006>008-012-
013-018>020-024>032.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Key Messages:
1. Heat ramps back up today and over the weekend. Heat advisory
today in west, area-wide on Saturday.
2. Isolated convection this afternoon/evening mainly east of
Highway 65.
3. Low-end potential for a few elevated showers/storms west of
Highway 65 late tonight into Saturday morning.
4. Isolated to scattered convection over the weekend, with more
widespread convective potential Monday into Wednesday.
5. "Cooler" temperatures early next week, with a gradual warm-up
into next weekend.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
KSGF radar this afternoon shows a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms over the region, most of which were east of
the Highway 65 corridor. Expect this to remain the status quo for
the remainder of afternoon into early evening with convection
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating this evening.
Heat is still the primary concern for the remainder of today as
highs in the 90s combining with dewpoints of 69-75 degrees have
lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for SE Kansas
and western Missouri counties where the mid 100 heat indices are
more common.
Overnight lows remain very warm tonight, ranging from the low 70s
over the eastern Ozarks to mid/upper 70s over SE Kansas and far
western Missouri. This will limit recovery from the daytime heat.
There is a weak signal in a few Hi-res models (RAP/HRRR) for
development of some isolated/scattered elevated convection
late overnight into Saturday morning for areas west of the
Highway 65 corridor. RAP shows lift due to isentropic upglide in
the 850-800 mb layer, with uncapped parcels lifted from that layer
having around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE to access. Better
precipitation chances remain over central Kansas and west of our
CWA where the LLJ is stronger (30-35 kt vs 20-25 kt for our area).
Have introduced slight chance PoPs for areas west of Springfield
(15-20%) to cover this conditional threat, though dry air in the
mid/upper levels could limit coverage or convective initiation
entirely. Regardless, if convection develops it will not be
severe.
Excessive heat is the main story as we head into Saturday and
Sunday as the upper-level ridge builds overhead and southerly
winds advect in even warmer temperatures. The current forecast
calls for highs in the mid-upper 90s from southeast Kansas into
the Rolla area, with low to mid 90s for south-central Missouri and
the eastern Ozarks. Dewpoints in the upper-60s to mid 70s on
Saturday (very slightly lower on Sunday) will lead to maximum heat
index values between 100-108 on Saturday and low to mid 100s on
Sunday. As a result, have expanded the Heat Advisory on Saturday
to include the entire CWA between 12 PM - 9 PM. Will need to watch
the temp/dewpoint trend for Sunday to determine whether or not an
additional Heat Advisory will be needed for that day.
Additional isolated diurnal convection is possible on Saturday
and Sunday afternoons into early evenings for areas east of
Highway 65 as a weak-upper low east of our area interacts with
our moist airmass. No severe weather is expected and most
locations should remain dry.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Sunday Night - Wednesday:
Generally good agreement aside from some slight timing differences
regarding an upper-level trough traversing the northern periphery
of the ridge through the upper-midwest into New England during
this timeframe. The cold front associated with this feature is
still progged to push southward into and through the Missouri
Ozarks region, but has slowed down relative to previous runs.
Therefore, the more widespread precipitation chances (40-60%) are
generally relegated to Monday and Tuesday, with some lingering
light precipitation potential (20-40% chances) over our southern
CWA on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southward. The WPC
Cluster Analysis tool further backs up the higher precipitation
potential being on Monday and Tuesday with all 4 ensemble clusters
having at least some measurable precipitation across the area,
while the signal is more mixed for Wednesday depending on how
quickly the front moves south.
As for precipitation amounts, GEFS precipitation probabilities are
still hinting at a lighter precipitation event and not a washout.
Probabilities of greater than 0.5" of rain are only 25-50% south
of I-44 and less for the northwestern half of our area.
Probabilities for greater than 1" are around or less than 10% area
wide. While these clouds and rain will help "cool" temperatures
into the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the area on Monday-
Wednesday, the rainfall amounts will likely not do much to
alleviate the ongoing drought.
Thursday - Next Weekend:
Mid-range ensemble guidance and the WPC Cluster Analysis Tool show
another strong indication of the an upper-level ridge building
back into the central Plains from next Thursday into the following
weekend. This will result in a drier period for late next week
with temperatures gradually returning to slightly above average
in the low to mid 90s area-wide. The big difference during this
timeframe will be drier and less humid conditions with dewpoints
in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. The one
exception may be isolated thunderstorm development late tonight
over western Missouri. If this scenario were to occur, brief
reductions to MVFR or IFR would occur. We have not yet inserted
this scenario into any of the TAFs given the low confidence.
Surface winds will generally remain out of the southeast to south
and will become gusty Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to around 20
knots are expected.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
088-089-093-101.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-101.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Schaumann