Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/04/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
809 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move southeast to southern Ontario, Canada by Thursday morning and become nearly stationary. A weak wave of low pressure is expected to move northeast along the front through the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. Weak high pressure will move southeast across the area to the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains by Saturday. This will force a warm front northeast across the area and become nearly stationary north of the area Saturday night. Another weak area of low pressure is expected to move northeast through the Ohio Valley Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Evening Update: The forecast through tonight remains fairly on track. A line of outflow dominant convection beginning to sag towards western Lake Erie and the I-75 corridor. Have not had any upstream reports of damage or severe gusts recently, and as the activity pushes into our area it is outrunning better shear/forcing and is starting to combat nocturnal cooling, which will lead to more stable low levels. Impression is we`ll see gusty but non-severe winds over parts of northwest Ohio and over Lake Erie this evening. Sufficient moisture and elevated instability will exist across the rest of our area over the next several hours that the outflow may continue to spark showers/thunder as it pushes through and have tweaked POPs accordingly, but expect overall coverage and intensity of showers/thunder to gradually decrease with southern and eastern extent into tonight. Likely a general lull into the overnight behind the activity pushing in now, though as synoptic lift approaches from the west late will have to watch for some returning activity towards the pre-dawn, especially towards our southwestern counties (i.e. Findlay to Marion to Mount Vernon). Hi-res models offer different ideas on how organized and intense this activity is into Thursday morning (many have very little actual rain late tonight into early Thursday, but a few such as the HRRR have a more organized batch of rain/thunder), and we`ll likely need to see what the environment looks like behind the more immediate activity to better resolve that. Previous Discussion: Strong warm air advection continues to take place this afternoon in the warm sector. A cold front is approaching from the northwest toward the area and will continue to force showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front. Severe thunderstorm watches have been issues west of the local area at this time. This activity is expected to advance east toward the local area this afternoon and evening but should weaken with time. Loss of day time heating, interacting with the weak upper level and surface ridges over the area, and slightly drier air to the east should aid in weakening the activity. Also, with cold front becoming nearly stationary, loss of lift from that feature should keep activity mostly west. An upper level trough is progged to move into the area tonight and will slow in forward motion as well. This should set up an axis for a wave of low pressure at the surface to move northeast along the stationary front Thursday afternoon. At the time the surface low arrives, Gulf of Mexico moisture plume arrives northeast into the local area. Looking at potential for locally heavy rain Thursday night as warm cloud depth approaches 12,000 feet and precipitable water values hover at or near 2.0 inches. Model soundings indicate somewhat weak mean wind flow. Will likely need to monitor for flooding; especially if expected slow moving thunderstorms materialize across the area. Model soundings even support minimal CAPE Thursday night along with much of the southeast portions of the forecast area under the right rear quad of the upper level jet. Otherwise, main relief from the heat will result from cloud cover and rain threat from close proximity to the front and advancing low pressure from the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As we head into the short term period on Friday morning, we will be monitoring the progress of overnight showers and thunderstorms. These may be ongoing across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area but overall thinking is that some larger scale subsidence will limit chances of precipitation in the morning, especially behind this activity across NW Ohio. By afternoon, daytime heating will become a factor with ML Cape values of 800-1600 J/kg. The airmass remains rather moist, although PW values do come down a quarter inch or more from Friday. Aside from perhaps some upper level support in the east, there will be less forcing for thunderstorm initiation on Friday. Lake breezes or flow off Lake Erie is expected to result in some low level convergence across both North Central Ohio and Northeast Ohio. These locations along with the southeastern counties that may be holding onto a little better moisture will feature the highest pops of 50-60 percent on Friday. Cloud cover will help to keep temperatures across all but NW Ohio near normal values for early August. By Saturday, heights are climbing aloft again and mid-level warm air will have an impact on coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s and expect to see a few scattered showers or thunderstorms with high pressure to the east and will carry a 20-40 percent pop. The warming trend resumes with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm and muggy conditions will continue into Sunday with potential for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. The strength of the cap remains somewhat of a question but will carry low end pops for another day. Model spread increases by Monday with respect to timing of an upper level shortwave moving through the flow aloft. This feature will force a cold front south across the area during the Monday/Tuesday time frame and pops will need to be adjusted during this time frame. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front by mid-week. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Thunderstorms approaching TOL and FDY will gradually weaken while pushing east/southeast through midnight or so. Largely VFR tonight outside of these thunderstorms, but brief non-VFR is likely at TOL and FDY, and possible elsewhere, especially at CLE, MFD and ERI. Tried to time a 1-2 hour window of poorer conditions with this activity. Generally a lull overnight, but a combination of increasing lift late tonight from the west and daytime heating will cause showers and some storms to move in from the west by early Thursday and then increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon. Thursday should be largely VFR outside of storms, but hit/miss storms with briefly worse conditions will be around in the area for a decent period of time starting perhaps as early as the morning towards FDY and in the afternoon elsewhere, only slowly subsiding into the evening. TAFs for the activity on Thursday are very broad- brushed due to low confidence and active weather earlier in the TAFs, but tried to highlight a broad period with -SHRA and VCTS at sites where confidence in getting a storm or two at some point is higher on Thursday...future TAF cycles will need to refine this. It is possible that the bulk of storms stay south of TOL, CLE, and ERI on Thursday, with higher confidence in storms at some point at MFD, CAK and YNG. Winds generally south to southwest at 6-12 knots through the period, but briefly variable with higher gusts near stronger thunderstorms. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. Non-VFR possible again Saturday afternoon through Monday in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Southerly flow of 10-20 knots will continue this evening ahead of a cold front. The flow is likely to get disrupted as a broken band of showers and thunderstorms cross Lake Erie overnight. A weak frontal boundary will cross the lake on Thursday with the flow shifting onshore east of Cleveland before the front tends to dissipate late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday. Lake breezes with onshore flow expected Friday but overall good marine conditions expected heading into the weekend. Southwesterly flow will increase to 10-15 knots by Sunday ahead of the next front that will settle south across Lake Erie late Monday. No Small Craft Advisories are expected through early next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>009- 017>019-027-028-036-037. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sullivan SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
930 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .DISCUSSION... EVENING UPDATE: Updated model guidance confirmed that low humidity and gusty winds will reach the eastern zones enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been expanded to cover all zones from 10 AM to 9 PM tomorrow. Updated HIRES and HRRR guidance showed some showers moving into the northeastern portion of the CWA after 00Z. At this point in time, these showers look less likely to pose a threat in terms of severe weather or dry lightning compared to what is expected towards the west. -Glinskas AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon in the west. Although relative humidity will recover tonight, expect Thursday afternoon humidity to again drop off to as low as 10 percent. Gusty northwest winds will also develop ahead of a cold front. Additionally, latest HREF guidance shows support for afternoon and evening thunderstorms which may produce a lightning risk. All told, high fire danger is expected through Thursday and so the Red Flag Warning continues. Additionally, SPC has placed southwest portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Storms that develop off the higher terrain of central Montana may produce damaging winds as they track northeast. Dry and breezy conditions may eventually merit an expansion of the Red Flag Warning further east. One question is whether lightning risk Thursday night will keep the risk going given dry fuels or if humidities will recover enough after the evening hours. Additionally, wind speeds aside from convection may be marginal in some places further east. As such, have held off on a decision for now, but near critical or critical fire conditions are still largely expected. For Friday into Saturday look for cooler temperatures and continued chances for thunderstorms before ensembles point to a return to hot weather next week with a new upper ridge pattern. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected tonight and Thursday, though isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday night. Hot temperatures will lead to high density altitude concerns. Look for winds to be southwest at 5 to 10 kts through tonight, increasing to 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts on Thursday. Gusty and shifting winds are possible near any thunderstorms. Equipment: While the KGDV visibility sensor is down, amendments will be limited to cloud and wind for this terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning has been issued for fire weather zones 120 and 122 from 10 AM to 9 PM Thursday for humidity as low as 10 percent, southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. A Red Flag Warning continues fire weather zones 134, 135, 136, and 137 through Thursday evening for humidity as low as 10 percent, southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph, and dry lightning. Isolated thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central Montana Thursday afternoon and spread northeast into Thursday night. Some of the storms may also produce gusty and shifting winds, making any fire starts difficult to contain. -Glinskas && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for MTZ134>137. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels... Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Northern Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Prairie...Richland... Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for MTZ120-122. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 -- General overview/highlights of the entire 7-day forecast (mix of chronological/topical order): 1) Heat continues/intensifies next few days: Overall, three more days of above-average heat is the first and most imminent story, with Friday-Saturday still looking like the next "apex" before readings back down to more "normal" August levels especially Sunday-Tuesday. While today and tomorrow have been/will be only a SLIGHT break from yesterday`s more oppressive temps/heat index values, Friday- Saturday feature fairly high confidence in actual highs mid-upper 90s (a few 100s southwest especially Sat), and heat index values at least "around 100" Friday and more solidly at least 100-105 on Saturday. Depending on how models trend (and also collaboration with neighbors...especially those who have different Advisory criteria), one or both of these days are looking increasingly- probable for our next Heat Advisories. 2) A return to more normal/average temperatures especially Sunday-Tuesday: Although not as much of a cool-down as our last stretch of cooler weather (which featured a full week below normal!), at least a modest easing back on the "thermometer throttle" is currently anticipated for especially Sunday-Tuesday (although admittedly Sunday and then next Wednesday do feature a few question marks). Officially (at least for now) our forecast for Sunday has lowered a bit more from ranging from mid 80s most areas but still upper 80s-low 90s in KS. However, the degree of this cooling (and how far south it gets) looks to depend heavily on the timing of our next halfway decent cold front, which the latest ECMWF suggests could arrive a bit slower (and thus keep Sunday warmer) for much of the area (something to watch). But even the slower ECMWF brings the front solidly through for Monday (along with possible rain chances), lending some confidence to our going forecast of keeping the ENTIRE coverage area (CWA) in the 80s for highs Monday. At this time, Tuesday`a highs are aimed upper 80s to around 90 (near-normal), and while our official forecast very preliminarily suggests a slight uptick back into the low 90s by next Wed, models start to unsurprisingly diverge a bit more by then, with the ECMWF suggesting cooler and GFS warmer (very dependent on how far east expansive mid-upper level ridging extends eastward from the Rockies). 3) A MOSTLY dry 7-day forecast, but at least a little hope for much-needed rain currently centered Saturday evening-Monday AM: Although a few very limited/fleeting chances for spotty rain cannot be ruled out between now and then, our official forecast calls for dry CWA-wide until at least Friday evening-overnight (when some rather "iffy" slight chances/PoPs) enter our far west- central/northern zones). However, the more evident chance for at least scattered (and perhaps more widespread) arrives over the weekend into very early next week as a northern stream trough flattens the large-scale ridge (and cools the mid level just enough), in tandem with the aforementioned surface frontal passage, to allow for a chance for showers/storms. Unfortunately, this is FAR from a guaranteed decent rain for all areas, but with PoPs now as high as 50 percent in some areas (per our default multi-model blend used to initialize the longer term periods), there is at least SOME hope for rain. An overall lack of appreciable instability, and more so deep layer wind shear currently looks to keep the severe storm fairly low with these storm chances, but as always this time of year, you can never totally never rule out a spotty strong/severe storm very far in advance. 4) Beyond Sunday night/early Monday precipitation-wise: As solidly indicated by the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, our region is favored to re-enter a largely dry pattern dominated by upper ridging next week, and our official forecast is currently a dry one CWA-wide for Tues-Wed. -- With the main messages covered above, will wrap things up with some details focused solely on these first 36 hours/3 forecast periods: - Current/recent weather scene as of 4 PM: Although not as oppressive as yesterday, hopefully NOBODY was expecting a "big cool down today" , as despite the arrival of a fairly well-defined cold front marked by the shift to north- northeast winds averaging 10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts, temperatures have (as expected) made it well into the low-mid 80s across most of the area (even some upper 90s far southwest). We`ve even had a limited area (mainly our far southeast zones) of 100+ heat index values this afternoon...but short of Advisory criteria. For those farther north and west within our CWA (especially Ord- Lexington/Beaver City corridor), at least dewpoints/humidity have been noticeably lower than yesterday (upper 50s-low 60s). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm broad west-northwest flow over the Central Plains, as we reside well-northeast of the center of upper high pressure/riding spinning clockwise over NM/eastern AZ. - This evening-overnight: Although have maintained a dry forecast with reasonably-high confidence for the entire CWA, it`s likely that a few rogue showers/sprinkles could at least flirt with our extreme south- southeast zones for several more hours, and much later in the night (closer to sunrise) there are subtle hints in models such as HRRR that a few high-based light showers/sprinkles could even sneak into our extreme northern zones (Ord area). However, felt that neither of these areas warranted a formal chance of rain in the official forecast at this time, as better chances for the latter should mainly favor the Sandhills/north central NE region. Otherwise, expect a rather quiet/mostly clear night as breezes turn light and easterly (only 5-10 MPH). Although still looking like one of the cooler nights we will see for a while, did nudge up the low temp forecast very slightly...mid 60s most areas but ranging from low 60s far north to around 70 far southeast. Although this type of light easterly breeze setup could favor some patchy fog especially in our southeast where dewpoints will remain highest, opted against formal forecast inclusion given lack of support in model visibility progs. - Thursday daytime: Assuming that no showers/sprinkles that might develop near our northern zones around sunrise end up clipping into a few of our far northern counties, confidence is rather high in the continued dry forecast as upper level ridging aloft starts to nudge in from the southwest. Made very little change to high temps, with most areas pretty similar to today in low-mid 90s and any upper 90s most favored far southwest. Unless dewpoints/humidity end up a bit higher than forecast, the entire CWA should see heat index values hold under 100 degrees, but could be close in spots. Breezes will average 10-15 MPH from the southeast over the course of the day, with mainly our western half favored for some 20+ MPH gusts during the afternoon. - Thursday night: The officially dry forecast continues, but with some weak disturbances barely passing north of us around the periphery of the upper ridge, will have to make sure some spotty activity doesn`t "leak" down into our northern zones out of northern NE. Otherwise, it should be a slightly warmer night (especially north), with lows aimed upper 60s to around 70 CWA-wide. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Mostly clear skies with light northeasterly winds are expected across the local area overnight. Expect a few mid level clouds to pass over the local area on Thursday...with winds shifting and becoming southeasterly with gusts of 15-17KTS expected during the afternoon hours as surface high pressure across the Missouri river valley shifts east into the great lakes region. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of central Illinois for the remainder of the evening...with most of the activity focused east of the I-55 corridor. While the severe weather threat has ended, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will remain possible along and south of I-70. && .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas along/south of I-70 has been surface-based instability has waned considerably. Latest mesoanalysis shows a 15-20kt 850mb jet from the Ozarks northeastward into east-central Illinois, which will provide continued elevated instability through the remainder of the evening. While a slight strengthening of the jet is anticipated over the next few hours, it will also be shifting southward with time. Given axis of MLCAPEs in excess of 1000J/kg along and south of a Danville to Taylorville line, am expecting showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to continue to develop and track E/SE toward the better elevated instability across the Ohio River Valley. While additional severe weather is not anticipated, localized flash flooding will be possible along/south of I-70 where soils are already saturated. A Flood Watch will therefore remain in effect for this area through the night. Have updated PoPs to focus greatest rain chances east of I-55 through midnight, then east/southeast of I-57 overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 A couple rounds of strong to severe storms and potential for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding round out the primary concerns in the near term. This afternoon, a cold front stretches from northern WI southwest across central IA and into KS. Storms have redeveloped in response to an MCV/outflow boundary emanating from IA within an unstable prefrontal air mass characterized by moderately strong instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg and weak but increasing shear values. Storms may initially pose a pulse severe threat with lack of stronger deep layer shear limiting storm organization. Deep layer shear values are progged to increase to around 25-30 kt late this afternoon into the evening in response to an increase in wind speeds aloft as the upper jet digs into portions of the Great Lakes region. A second line of storms is expected to develop over portions of central Illinois late this afternoon and evening as H5 trough digs into the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi Valley. The severe threat appears most notable with this second wave with better deep layer shear in place. In addition, any outflow boundaries from round one of storms laying out east to west may serve as the focus for a narrow but enhanced severe threat for any storms riding along the boundary. A low but non-zero tornado threat may materialize if this scenario pans out, but modest deep layer shear values today will keep the overall tornado threat in check. This evening, expect a modest uptick in mid level southwest flow, especially over MO, which will continue to feed high theta-e air into ongoing storms. Corfidi vectors will remain light and become oriented out of the N/NNE this evening as the low level jet develops increasing the threat for back-building thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. 12Z HREF has trended wetter in terms of QPF this evening and overnight with LPMM showing a broadening footprint of QPF values in excess of 2 inches and some pockets now in excess of 5 inches of rainfall. Mean QPF from the HREF shows a broad swath of 0.5 to 1.5 inches between the Illinois River and I-57 corridor with some pockets over 1.5 to 2.0 inches. 3-hour flash flood guidance generally falls between 2.0 and 3.0 inches except for areas near and south of I-70 where only 1.0-1.5 inches of rain is needed for flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of central Illinois, roughly I-55 to I-57 but also including Morgan and Scott counties. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Frontal boundary will be stalled over the southern half of Illinois Friday and will serve as the primary focus for storm development Friday afternoon as conditions become unstable and weakly capped. There remains some uncertainty on the placement of the front and PoPs reflect this with the highest values across the south half of the state but favoring dry north of I-72 where mid level height rises begin to build across the region. By Saturday, there is higher confidence that the front will settle to out south while upper ridge builds back across portions of the mid Mississippi River Valley. Mid level southwest flow will overspread the region allowing heat to build back into the forecast. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to 90s across central Illinois while dew points continue to run in the 70s. This pattern continues into the day Sunday. Heat Index values will peak in the 100-105 degree range each day this weekend. For the first half of next week, upper ridge is expected to shift to our east while a flat trough moves into portions of the Great Lakes. A trailing attendant cold front will settle over portions of central Illinois Monday. The front will slowly settle south to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday or Wednesday with daily chances for showers and storms near the front. Behind the front, temperatures will moderate closer to normal or fall slightly below normal while precip chances diminish. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Line of convection has dropped well south of the central Illinois terminals early this evening: however, several CAMs are suggesting scattered shower/storm development further north as the evening progresses. Based on the lack of surface-based instability and questions regarding the exact areal coverage, have opted to only include VCSH at all sites except KPIA after 05z/06z. Forecast soundings show ceilings lowering to MVFR overnight and lingering through at least mid-morning before gradually mixing to low VFR by midday Thursday. Will also need to keep an eye on visbys as ample boundary layer moisture from the rain earlier today may lead to fog development. All models suggest at least minor visby reductions with the RAP hinting at the potential for dense fog. Given expected cloud cover, do not think fog will become dense, but have reduced visbys to 2-3 miles late tonight into early Thursday morning accordingly. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ061>063-066>068- 071>073. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1037 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness. Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver Oklahoma. All models fairly consistent with the surface boundary not advancing much further but perhaps our far northwest. However, the HRRR seems to have a good handle on the showers currently moving into our far northwest and staying isolated across northern Oklahoma before dissipating by the early evening. HRRR soundings across northern Oklahoma showing a weakening cap by late afternoon heating, so can`t completely rule out some additional convection developing. Although DCAPE values could support a few strong wind gusts, weak instability should keep any storms should they develop from becoming severe. With the surface boundary stalling out across far northwest Oklahoma, a shortwave rotating through our mid-level ridge could produce another round of elevated storms through Thursday morning mainly across northcentral into eastcentral Oklahoma. MUCAPE values still showing weak instability to work with, although strong downburst winds cannot be ruled out. As far as heat on Thursday, some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the afternoon. With convection possible tonight and some residual outflow boundaries possibly setting up for additional afternoon convection, will hold off for now issuing a Heat Advisory for Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Any thunderstorms that form Thursday afternoon or early evening should dissipated by mid evening. The center of a mid level ridge will be centered over the central Plains Friday through the weekend. This will bring more hot weather with little chance of rain. A shortwave trough is expected to move across the northern Rockies and Plains late Sunday into Monday. This feature will help push a cold front near the northern Oklahoma border by Monday/Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along and near the front Monday into Tuesday with better chances across the northern half of Oklahoma. Depending on convective trends, the surface boundary may push far enough south by late Tuesday into Wednesday to bring a chance of rain to parts of southern Oklahoma, perhaps northern Texas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Apart from a chance for thunderstorms at PNC and SWO from late morning Thursday, VFR conditions are expected. LLWS is expected at TAF sites through central Oklahoma from the Red River to the Kansas border. Moderately gusty south to southwest winds will occur during the day Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 100 75 99 / 20 20 10 10 Hobart OK 80 104 77 103 / 20 20 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 82 105 78 103 / 10 10 10 10 Gage OK 74 99 74 101 / 20 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 76 98 75 100 / 30 20 10 10 Durant OK 79 101 76 100 / 0 20 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
811 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire. Although the line of convection that was headed for Perry County Missouri earlier this evening has dissipated, fresh convective development from central Missouri into central Illinois will still support a heavy rainfall and flooding threat late this evening through Thursday morning. No changes to the Flood Watch are expected. UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 The latest radar trends indicate that our next round of convection will be on our northwest door step within the next hour. This is well ahead of any short range guidance, so just tried to wing it for PoPs through the evening and into the overnight. There has been no mention of a Severe Storm Watch being issued into our region this evening, but we will still have to watch out for at least some isolated damaging winds. With all of the low-level flow from the southwest, a south or southwestward propagating line or line segment mainly through southeast Missouri is a likely outcome later this evening. With the earlier onset of convective rainfall, we moved up the begin time of the Flood Watch to 00Z. No change to the area. The biggest concern is for the many low-water crossing in Ozark Foothills. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Breezy and hot conditions this afternoon with some CU across the area. We will let the Heat Advisory run out as scheduled. Tonight, focus turns toward convective chances. We followed closely the ARW, FV3 and HRRR for our PoP depiction, and a mix of mean and matched mean probability for QPF. Collab with WPC, SGF and LSX has lead to the issuance of a Flood Watch. Concerns will increase overnight, as PW`s over 2 inches set up over the area. We anticipate a convective complex of storms will move southeast, then south across the area. Southeast Missouri will be the area of greatest concern, with PoPs lowering slightly east of the MS River, where lower QPF is also anticipated. The mid level energy supporting convection tonight will slowly move over the area Thursday and to our east Thursday night. We will translate highest PoPs from west to east Thursday and into the night as well. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday and Friday night as weak upper support remains over the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Broad mid-level ridging is expected to be in place for the weekend with high pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley. However, small scale disturbances in the Ohio Valley, along with the high moisture content from the Gulf and plenty of daytime heating, will allow for daily chances of showers/storms to continue for the weekend. These storms are expected to mainly occur during the afternoon hours and take the form of pulse storms rather than more organized systems. Locally heavy rain will be possible but area QPF averages for the Quad State will be low. Models suggest a likely partial breakdown of the ridge allowing for a cold frontal passage to move through or at least approach the Quad State region early next week. There is still substantial differences in timing with the operational GFS around 24 hours earlier than the ECMWF, Monday evening vs Tuesday evening. Ensembles place the ECMWF as the slower and rainier solution. Due to timing differences, chance PoPs are included from Monday through Tuesday night. This system is more likely to provide a broad coverage of decent rainfall which will be welcome in drought affected areas. Dry weather is anticipated behind the front as moisture flow shifts towards the Appalachians. Temperatures are forecast to be near 90 for the weekend for highs and lower 70s for lows. The more active weather next week and the likely cold frontal passage will drop highs/lows down to the mid 80s/upper 60s for the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022 Broken lines of shower and thunderstorm activity will move into the area from northwest to southeast tonight into Thursday. Impacts will be felt at CGI and MVN by this evening into late tonight...with later arrivals between 06z and 12z Thursday anticipated at PAH, EVV, and CGI. MVFR cigs will accompany the arrival of these storms, along with brief periods of vsby reductions under heavier activity. We`ll see improvement late in the period as this activity exits the area. Winds will be mainly S-SW at 5-10 kts, with higher gusts possible tonight with thunderstorms. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ076-086-100-107>109. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DRS AVIATION...DWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
903 PM PDT Wed Aug 3 2022 .UPDATE...Main weather concerns for the past several days have been fire weather related--thunderstorms, wind, and low humidity-- but conditions are improving for the next couple of days. The Red Flag Warnings will be allowed to expire at 9 PM. Thunderstorms have quickly dissipated and shifted eastward in response to an increasing drier westerly flow. Winds are gradually decreasing An upper level trough is setting up over the PacNW with the center of the low over BC. On Thursday, the bottom of the trough will be positioned over WA/OR with a strong westerly flow. There will be a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures compared to today`s high, and Thursday`s afternoon temps will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s for most of the forecast area. RHs will be in the 20s and 30s north and 15-25 percent south. It will be another windy day for areas in and around the Columbia Basin, and many of the mountain ridges will also be breezy to windy. Smoke has been a bit of a challenge, as new fires and holdovers are making their appearance in both WA and OR. Due to the westerly flow aloft tomorrow and decent mixing, surface based and elevated smoke should not be a major factor in air quality and vertical visibility. The HRRR smoke product supports this. Minor updates were made to the forecast, mainly to add some smoke for the Cedar Fire on the west side of the central Oregon Cascades that pushed smoke across the Bend/Redmond areas earlier today. Wister/85 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM PDT Wed Aug 3 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows isolated showers beginning to develop across Central Oregon. There has only been one lightning strike in Central Crook county associated with these small cells, but storm activity will be increasing and becoming more scattered through this afternoon and evening for Crook, Grant, and southern Union Counties. There may be a chance of some lingering storms making it into Southern Wallowa county later this evening, but confidence is lacking due to their arrival being so late in the day. HREF short-term guidance has been good with the developing storm cells over the past several days, with recent runs indicating an increase in storm activity for the remainder of the day. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued until 9PM across Central Oregon through the eastern mountains for the potential of abundant lightning to occur with this afternoon and evening`s developing storm cells. This extends an already active Red Flag Warning for Central Oregon and Washington through 9PM this evening in response to critically low Relative Humidity values coupled with breezy to windy conditions. Fire concerns decrease after today as cooler and more stable conditions return to the area through the remainder of the workweek, but breezy west-northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph will still be possible Thursday through the Eastern Gorge, Cascades gaps, and the Kittitas valley. Guidance is in good agreement through the short term period, as a closed low pressure system off the coast will shift west over the next 24 hours in response to an incoming upper level trough dropping into Central Washington from British Columbia. This will keep winds breezy through the day on Thursday, but cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities will accompany this passing trough. Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below average Thursday and Friday on the back end of the departing trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a weaker shortwave and closed low pressure system with recent runs over the last 12 to 24 hours, but the ECMWF does bring the closed low much closer to the California/Oregon coasts on Friday with the newest model run. This could produce warmer temperatures as this feature will have a greater influence on local conditions, but current confidence is rather lacking at this time. Winds will subside on Friday to around 10 mph through the afternoon, with northwest winds keeping temperatures mild. 75 LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...On Saturday, a weak trough will be over the Pacific Northwest. There are some timing differences with the departure of this trough and the building northwest of the large ridge from the four corners region for the start of the new week but all odf the guidance eventually gets to the same solution by about Monday and the heat will return. Meanwhile, the persistent low off the California coast will begin to move northward again through midweek and the ridge will be pushed eastward. The main questions are does the low move more inland or stay off the coast? Also, how far east does the ridge go as a result? If we look at the ensemble clusters, first with regard to the trough over the northwest early in the period, it appears that the majority of the guidance does not support the slower ECMWF solution keeping the trough lingering longer, which would allow the ridge to build in faster. By Monday into Tuesday, 3 of the clusters indicate a slower solution, keeping the low offshore, while one indicates a more progressive solution bringing it more inland. By Wednesday, the split becomes 50/50 which introduces more uncertainty into the forecast. Regardless, it looks like a couple of potentially hot days early next week especially across the Columbia Basin, Gorge, Blue Mountain Foothills, and Yakima Valley. High temperatures will rise from the upper 80s and lower 90s on Saturday to around 100, with 100 to 105 in Basin and warmest lower elevation areas on Monday. Sunday and Tuesday will see highs around or just above 100 in many of these locations. Low RH values will continue but at this point, any stronger wind gusts look to be localized at least through about Tuesday. AVIATION...00Z TAFS...Winds will be the primary aviation concern for the next 24 hours as tight gradients and strong winds aloft combine to bring gusty winds for most of the terminal airports. Winds this evening will be westerly 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts (gusting to 30 kts at DLS) and will decrease to 15 kts or less overnight and early Thursday morning. However, winds will increase and will be stronger Thursday afternoon compared to today--and additional 5-10 kts. FEW-SCT cumulus and towering cumulus this afternoon will be followed by high cirrus clouds tonight. Wister/85 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 58 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 62 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 63 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 56 85 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 61 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 56 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 88 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 56 86 51 83 / 20 0 0 10 GCD 58 92 52 89 / 20 0 0 10 DLS 61 82 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ UPDATE...85 SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...85