Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/04/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
809 PM EDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast to southern Ontario, Canada by
Thursday morning and become nearly stationary. A weak wave of low
pressure is expected to move northeast along the front through the
Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. Weak high pressure will move
southeast across the area to the western slopes of the Appalachian
Mountains by Saturday. This will force a warm front northeast across
the area and become nearly stationary north of the area Saturday
night. Another weak area of low pressure is expected to move
northeast through the Ohio Valley Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Evening Update:
The forecast through tonight remains fairly on track. A line of
outflow dominant convection beginning to sag towards western
Lake Erie and the I-75 corridor. Have not had any upstream
reports of damage or severe gusts recently, and as the activity
pushes into our area it is outrunning better shear/forcing and
is starting to combat nocturnal cooling, which will lead to more
stable low levels. Impression is we`ll see gusty but non-severe
winds over parts of northwest Ohio and over Lake Erie this
evening. Sufficient moisture and elevated instability will exist
across the rest of our area over the next several hours that the
outflow may continue to spark showers/thunder as it pushes
through and have tweaked POPs accordingly, but expect overall
coverage and intensity of showers/thunder to gradually decrease
with southern and eastern extent into tonight.
Likely a general lull into the overnight behind the activity
pushing in now, though as synoptic lift approaches from the west
late will have to watch for some returning activity towards the
pre-dawn, especially towards our southwestern counties (i.e.
Findlay to Marion to Mount Vernon). Hi-res models offer
different ideas on how organized and intense this activity is
into Thursday morning (many have very little actual rain late
tonight into early Thursday, but a few such as the HRRR have a
more organized batch of rain/thunder), and we`ll likely need to
see what the environment looks like behind the more immediate
activity to better resolve that.
Previous Discussion:
Strong warm air advection continues to take place this
afternoon in the warm sector. A cold front is approaching from
the northwest toward the area and will continue to force showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front. Severe
thunderstorm watches have been issues west of the local area at
this time. This activity is expected to advance east toward the
local area this afternoon and evening but should weaken with
time. Loss of day time heating, interacting with the weak upper
level and surface ridges over the area, and slightly drier air
to the east should aid in weakening the activity. Also, with
cold front becoming nearly stationary, loss of lift from that
feature should keep activity mostly west. An upper level trough
is progged to move into the area tonight and will slow in
forward motion as well. This should set up an axis for a wave of
low pressure at the surface to move northeast along the
stationary front Thursday afternoon. At the time the surface low
arrives, Gulf of Mexico moisture plume arrives northeast into
the local area. Looking at potential for locally heavy rain
Thursday night as warm cloud depth approaches 12,000 feet and
precipitable water values hover at or near 2.0 inches. Model
soundings indicate somewhat weak mean wind flow. Will likely
need to monitor for flooding; especially if expected slow moving
thunderstorms materialize across the area. Model soundings even
support minimal CAPE Thursday night along with much of the
southeast portions of the forecast area under the right rear
quad of the upper level jet. Otherwise, main relief from the
heat will result from cloud cover and rain threat from close
proximity to the front and advancing low pressure from the
southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As we head into the short term period on Friday morning, we
will be monitoring the progress of overnight showers and
thunderstorms. These may be ongoing across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area but overall thinking is that some
larger scale subsidence will limit chances of precipitation in
the morning, especially behind this activity across NW Ohio. By
afternoon, daytime heating will become a factor with ML Cape
values of 800-1600 J/kg. The airmass remains rather moist,
although PW values do come down a quarter inch or more from
Friday. Aside from perhaps some upper level support in the east,
there will be less forcing for thunderstorm initiation on
Friday. Lake breezes or flow off Lake Erie is expected to result
in some low level convergence across both North Central Ohio
and Northeast Ohio. These locations along with the southeastern
counties that may be holding onto a little better moisture will
feature the highest pops of 50-60 percent on Friday. Cloud cover
will help to keep temperatures across all but NW Ohio near
normal values for early August.
By Saturday, heights are climbing aloft again and mid-level warm air
will have an impact on coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Dewpoints remain in the lower 70s and expect to see a few scattered
showers or thunderstorms with high pressure to the east and will
carry a 20-40 percent pop. The warming trend resumes with
temperatures in the mid-upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm and muggy conditions will continue into Sunday with
potential for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The strength of the cap remains somewhat of a question but will
carry low end pops for another day. Model spread increases by
Monday with respect to timing of an upper level shortwave moving
through the flow aloft. This feature will force a cold front
south across the area during the Monday/Tuesday time frame and
pops will need to be adjusted during this time frame.
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Thunderstorms approaching TOL and FDY will gradually weaken
while pushing east/southeast through midnight or so. Largely
VFR tonight outside of these thunderstorms, but brief non-VFR is
likely at TOL and FDY, and possible elsewhere, especially at
CLE, MFD and ERI. Tried to time a 1-2 hour window of poorer
conditions with this activity. Generally a lull overnight, but
a combination of increasing lift late tonight from the west and
daytime heating will cause showers and some storms to move in
from the west by early Thursday and then increase in coverage
and intensity into the afternoon. Thursday should be largely VFR
outside of storms, but hit/miss storms with briefly worse
conditions will be around in the area for a decent period of
time starting perhaps as early as the morning towards FDY and in
the afternoon elsewhere, only slowly subsiding into the
evening. TAFs for the activity on Thursday are very broad-
brushed due to low confidence and active weather earlier in the
TAFs, but tried to highlight a broad period with -SHRA and VCTS
at sites where confidence in getting a storm or two at some
point is higher on Thursday...future TAF cycles will need to
refine this. It is possible that the bulk of storms stay south
of TOL, CLE, and ERI on Thursday, with higher confidence in
storms at some point at MFD, CAK and YNG.
Winds generally south to southwest at 6-12 knots through the
period, but briefly variable with higher gusts near stronger
thunderstorms.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Friday evening. Non-VFR possible again
Saturday afternoon through Monday in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly flow of 10-20 knots will continue this evening ahead of a
cold front. The flow is likely to get disrupted as a broken band of
showers and thunderstorms cross Lake Erie overnight. A weak frontal
boundary will cross the lake on Thursday with the flow shifting
onshore east of Cleveland before the front tends to dissipate late
in the day. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on
Thursday. Lake breezes with onshore flow expected Friday but overall
good marine conditions expected heading into the weekend.
Southwesterly flow will increase to 10-15 knots by Sunday ahead of
the next front that will settle south across Lake Erie late Monday.
No Small Craft Advisories are expected through early next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>009-
017>019-027-028-036-037.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...KEC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
930 PM MDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING UPDATE:
Updated model guidance confirmed that low humidity and gusty
winds will reach the eastern zones enough to warrant a Red Flag
Warning. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning has been expanded to
cover all zones from 10 AM to 9 PM tomorrow.
Updated HIRES and HRRR guidance showed some showers moving into
the northeastern portion of the CWA after 00Z. At this point in
time, these showers look less likely to pose a threat in terms of
severe weather or dry lightning compared to what is expected
towards the west.
-Glinskas
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION:
Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon in the
west. Although relative humidity will recover tonight, expect
Thursday afternoon humidity to again drop off to as low as 10
percent. Gusty northwest winds will also develop ahead of a cold
front. Additionally, latest HREF guidance shows support for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms which may produce a lightning
risk. All told, high fire danger is expected through Thursday and
so the Red Flag Warning continues. Additionally, SPC has placed
southwest portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms on Thursday. Storms that develop off the higher
terrain of central Montana may produce damaging winds as they
track northeast.
Dry and breezy conditions may eventually merit an expansion of the
Red Flag Warning further east. One question is whether lightning
risk Thursday night will keep the risk going given dry fuels or
if humidities will recover enough after the evening hours.
Additionally, wind speeds aside from convection may be marginal in
some places further east. As such, have held off on a decision for
now, but near critical or critical fire conditions are still
largely expected.
For Friday into Saturday look for cooler temperatures and
continued chances for thunderstorms before ensembles point to a
return to hot weather next week with a new upper ridge pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected tonight and Thursday, though isolated
thunderstorms are possible Thursday night. Hot temperatures will
lead to high density altitude concerns. Look for winds to be
southwest at 5 to 10 kts through tonight, increasing to 10 to 20
kts with gusts to 30 kts on Thursday. Gusty and shifting winds are
possible near any thunderstorms.
Equipment: While the KGDV visibility sensor is down, amendments
will be limited to cloud and wind for this terminal.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for fire weather zones 120 and
122 from 10 AM to 9 PM Thursday for humidity as low as 10 percent,
southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
A Red Flag Warning continues fire weather zones 134, 135, 136,
and 137 through Thursday evening for humidity as low as 10
percent, southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph,
and dry lightning. Isolated thunderstorms will develop off the
higher terrain of central Montana Thursday afternoon and spread
northeast into Thursday night. Some of the storms may also produce
gusty and shifting winds, making any fire starts difficult to
contain.
-Glinskas
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Thursday for MTZ134>137.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...
Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Northern
Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Prairie...Richland...
Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for MTZ120-122.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
-- General overview/highlights of the entire 7-day forecast (mix
of chronological/topical order):
1) Heat continues/intensifies next few days:
Overall, three more days of above-average heat is the first and
most imminent story, with Friday-Saturday still looking like the
next "apex" before readings back down to more "normal" August
levels especially Sunday-Tuesday. While today and tomorrow have
been/will be only a SLIGHT break from yesterday`s more oppressive
temps/heat index values, Friday- Saturday feature fairly high
confidence in actual highs mid-upper 90s (a few 100s southwest
especially Sat), and heat index values at least "around 100"
Friday and more solidly at least 100-105 on Saturday. Depending on
how models trend (and also collaboration with
neighbors...especially those who have different Advisory
criteria), one or both of these days are looking increasingly-
probable for our next Heat Advisories.
2) A return to more normal/average temperatures especially
Sunday-Tuesday:
Although not as much of a cool-down as our last stretch of cooler
weather (which featured a full week below normal!), at least a
modest easing back on the "thermometer throttle" is currently
anticipated for especially Sunday-Tuesday (although admittedly
Sunday and then next Wednesday do feature a few question marks).
Officially (at least for now) our forecast for Sunday has lowered
a bit more from previous...now ranging from mid 80s most areas but
still upper 80s-low 90s in KS. However, the degree of this cooling
(and how far south it gets) looks to depend heavily on the timing
of our next halfway decent cold front, which the latest ECMWF
suggests could arrive a bit slower (and thus keep Sunday warmer)
for much of the area (something to watch). But even the slower
ECMWF brings the front solidly through for Monday (along with
possible rain chances), lending some confidence to our going
forecast of keeping the ENTIRE coverage area (CWA) in the 80s for
highs Monday. At this time, Tuesday`a highs are aimed upper 80s to
around 90 (near-normal), and while our official forecast very
preliminarily suggests a slight uptick back into the low 90s by
next Wed, models start to unsurprisingly diverge a bit more by
then, with the ECMWF suggesting cooler and GFS warmer (very
dependent on how far east expansive mid-upper level ridging
extends eastward from the Rockies).
3) A MOSTLY dry 7-day forecast, but at least a little hope for
much-needed rain currently centered Saturday evening-Monday AM:
Although a few very limited/fleeting chances for spotty rain
cannot be ruled out between now and then, our official forecast
calls for dry CWA-wide until at least Friday evening-overnight
(when some rather "iffy" slight chances/PoPs) enter our far west-
central/northern zones). However, the more evident chance for at
least scattered (and perhaps more widespread) arrives over the
weekend into very early next week as a northern stream trough
flattens the large-scale ridge (and cools the mid level just
enough), in tandem with the aforementioned surface frontal
passage, to allow for a chance for showers/storms. Unfortunately,
this is FAR from a guaranteed decent rain for all areas, but with
PoPs now as high as 50 percent in some areas (per our default
multi-model blend used to initialize the longer term periods),
there is at least SOME hope for rain. An overall lack of
appreciable instability, and more so deep layer wind shear
currently looks to keep the severe storm fairly low with these
storm chances, but as always this time of year, you can never
totally never rule out a spotty strong/severe storm very far in
advance.
4) Beyond Sunday night/early Monday precipitation-wise:
As solidly indicated by the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks,
our region is favored to re-enter a largely dry pattern dominated
by upper ridging next week, and our official forecast is currently
a dry one CWA-wide for Tues-Wed.
-- With the main messages covered above, will wrap things up with
some details focused solely on these first 36 hours/3 forecast
periods:
- Current/recent weather scene as of 4 PM:
Although not as oppressive as yesterday, hopefully NOBODY was
expecting a "big cool down today" , as despite the arrival of a
fairly well-defined cold front marked by the shift to north-
northeast winds averaging 10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts,
temperatures have (as expected) made it well into the low-mid 80s
across most of the area (even some upper 90s far southwest). We`ve
even had a limited area (mainly our far southeast zones) of 100+
heat index values this afternoon...but short of Advisory criteria.
For those farther north and west within our CWA (especially Ord-
Lexington/Beaver City corridor), at least dewpoints/humidity have
been noticeably lower than yesterday (upper 50s-low 60s). In the
big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and
short term model data confirm broad west-northwest flow over the
Central Plains, as we reside well-northeast of the center of upper
high pressure/riding spinning clockwise over NM/eastern AZ.
- This evening-overnight:
Although have maintained a dry forecast with reasonably-high
confidence for the entire CWA, it`s likely that a few rogue
showers/sprinkles could at least flirt with our extreme south-
southeast zones for several more hours, and much later in the
night (closer to sunrise) there are subtle hints in models such as
HRRR that a few high-based light showers/sprinkles could even
sneak into our extreme northern zones (Ord area). However, felt
that neither of these areas warranted a formal chance of rain in
the official forecast at this time, as better chances for the
latter should mainly favor the Sandhills/north central NE region.
Otherwise, expect a rather quiet/mostly clear night as breezes
turn light and easterly (only 5-10 MPH). Although still looking
like one of the cooler nights we will see for a while, did nudge
up the low temp forecast very slightly...mid 60s most areas but
ranging from low 60s far north to around 70 far southeast.
Although this type of light easterly breeze setup could favor some
patchy fog especially in our southeast where dewpoints will remain
highest, opted against formal forecast inclusion given lack of
support in model visibility progs.
- Thursday daytime:
Assuming that no showers/sprinkles that might develop near our
northern zones around sunrise end up clipping into a few of our
far northern counties, confidence is rather high in the continued
dry forecast as upper level ridging aloft starts to nudge in from
the southwest. Made very little change to high temps, with most
areas pretty similar to today in low-mid 90s and any upper 90s
most favored far southwest. Unless dewpoints/humidity end up a bit
higher than forecast, the entire CWA should see heat index values
hold under 100 degrees, but could be close in spots. Breezes will
average 10-15 MPH from the southeast over the course of the day,
with mainly our western half favored for some 20+ MPH gusts during
the afternoon.
- Thursday night:
The officially dry forecast continues, but with some weak
disturbances barely passing north of us around the periphery of
the upper ridge, will have to make sure some spotty activity
doesn`t "leak" down into our northern zones out of northern NE.
Otherwise, it should be a slightly warmer night (especially
north), with lows aimed upper 60s to around 70 CWA-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Mostly clear skies with light northeasterly winds are expected
across the local area overnight. Expect a few mid level clouds to
pass over the local area on Thursday...with winds shifting and
becoming southeasterly with gusts of 15-17KTS expected during the
afternoon hours as surface high pressure across the Missouri river
valley shifts east into the great lakes region.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of central
Illinois for the remainder of the evening...with most of the
activity focused east of the I-55 corridor. While the severe
weather threat has ended, heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding will remain possible along and south of I-70.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas along/south of I-70 has been
cancelled...as surface-based instability has waned considerably.
Latest mesoanalysis shows a 15-20kt 850mb jet from the Ozarks
northeastward into east-central Illinois, which will provide
continued elevated instability through the remainder of the
evening. While a slight strengthening of the jet is anticipated
over the next few hours, it will also be shifting southward with
time. Given axis of MLCAPEs in excess of 1000J/kg along and south
of a Danville to Taylorville line, am expecting showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms to continue to develop and track E/SE
toward the better elevated instability across the Ohio River
Valley. While additional severe weather is not anticipated,
localized flash flooding will be possible along/south of I-70
where soils are already saturated. A Flood Watch will therefore
remain in effect for this area through the night. Have updated
PoPs to focus greatest rain chances east of I-55 through midnight,
then east/southeast of I-57 overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
A couple rounds of strong to severe storms and potential for heavy
rain resulting in flash flooding round out the primary concerns in
the near term. This afternoon, a cold front stretches from
northern WI southwest across central IA and into KS. Storms have
redeveloped in response to an MCV/outflow boundary emanating from
IA within an unstable prefrontal air mass characterized by
moderately strong instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500
J/kg and weak but increasing shear values. Storms may initially
pose a pulse severe threat with lack of stronger deep layer shear
limiting storm organization. Deep layer shear values are progged
to increase to around 25-30 kt late this afternoon into the
evening in response to an increase in wind speeds aloft as the
upper jet digs into portions of the Great Lakes region. A second
line of storms is expected to develop over portions of central
Illinois late this afternoon and evening as H5 trough digs into
the Great Lakes and Mid Mississippi Valley. The severe threat
appears most notable with this second wave with better deep layer
shear in place. In addition, any outflow boundaries from round one
of storms laying out east to west may serve as the focus for a
narrow but enhanced severe threat for any storms riding along the
boundary. A low but non-zero tornado threat may materialize if
this scenario pans out, but modest deep layer shear values today
will keep the overall tornado threat in check.
This evening, expect a modest uptick in mid level southwest flow,
especially over MO, which will continue to feed high theta-e air
into ongoing storms. Corfidi vectors will remain light and become
oriented out of the N/NNE this evening as the low level jet
develops increasing the threat for back-building thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall. 12Z HREF has trended wetter in terms of QPF this
evening and overnight with LPMM showing a broadening footprint of
QPF values in excess of 2 inches and some pockets now in excess of
5 inches of rainfall. Mean QPF from the HREF shows a broad swath
of 0.5 to 1.5 inches between the Illinois River and I-57 corridor
with some pockets over 1.5 to 2.0 inches. 3-hour flash flood
guidance generally falls between 2.0 and 3.0 inches except for
areas near and south of I-70 where only 1.0-1.5 inches of rain is
needed for flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of central Illinois, roughly I-55 to I-57 but also
including Morgan and Scott counties.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Frontal boundary will be stalled over the southern half of
Illinois Friday and will serve as the primary focus for storm
development Friday afternoon as conditions become unstable and
weakly capped. There remains some uncertainty on the placement of
the front and PoPs reflect this with the highest values across the
south half of the state but favoring dry north of I-72 where mid
level height rises begin to build across the region.
By Saturday, there is higher confidence that the front will settle
to out south while upper ridge builds back across portions of the
mid Mississippi River Valley. Mid level southwest flow will
overspread the region allowing heat to build back into the
forecast. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to 90s across
central Illinois while dew points continue to run in the 70s.
This pattern continues into the day Sunday. Heat Index values will
peak in the 100-105 degree range each day this weekend.
For the first half of next week, upper ridge is expected to shift
to our east while a flat trough moves into portions of the Great
Lakes. A trailing attendant cold front will settle over portions
of central Illinois Monday. The front will slowly settle south to
the Ohio River Valley Tuesday or Wednesday with daily chances for
showers and storms near the front. Behind the front, temperatures
will moderate closer to normal or fall slightly below normal while
precip chances diminish.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Line of convection has dropped well south of the central Illinois
terminals early this evening: however, several CAMs are suggesting
scattered shower/storm development further north as the evening
progresses. Based on the lack of surface-based instability and
questions regarding the exact areal coverage, have opted to only
include VCSH at all sites except KPIA after 05z/06z. Forecast
soundings show ceilings lowering to MVFR overnight and lingering
through at least mid-morning before gradually mixing to low VFR by
midday Thursday. Will also need to keep an eye on visbys as ample
boundary layer moisture from the rain earlier today may lead to
fog development. All models suggest at least minor visby
reductions with the RAP hinting at the potential for dense fog.
Given expected cloud cover, do not think fog will become dense,
but have reduced visbys to 2-3 miles late tonight into early
Thursday morning accordingly.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ILZ061>063-066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1037 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Heat indices up to or exceeding 105 degrees will be possible this
afternoon, as our Heat Advisory will remain in effect through the
mid-evening hours across all but northwest Oklahoma which should
stay a couple of degrees cooler with some mid-level cloudiness.
Currently seeing some weak isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along a surface boundary/cold front stretched across
central Kansas through the Oklahoma & Texas Panhandles near Beaver
Oklahoma. All models fairly consistent with the surface boundary
not advancing much further but perhaps our far northwest. However,
the HRRR seems to have a good handle on the showers currently moving
into our far northwest and staying isolated across northern Oklahoma
before dissipating by the early evening. HRRR soundings across
northern Oklahoma showing a weakening cap by late afternoon heating,
so can`t completely rule out some additional convection developing.
Although DCAPE values could support a few strong wind gusts, weak
instability should keep any storms should they develop from becoming
severe. With the surface boundary stalling out across far northwest
Oklahoma, a shortwave rotating through our mid-level ridge could
produce another round of elevated storms through Thursday morning
mainly across northcentral into eastcentral Oklahoma. MUCAPE values
still showing weak instability to work with, although strong
downburst winds cannot be ruled out. As far as heat on Thursday,
some of our area may again reach Heat Advisory criteria based on the
NBM heat indices, even though some increasing cloud cover should
keep the dry bulb temperatures a few degrees cooler during the
afternoon. With convection possible tonight and some residual
outflow boundaries possibly setting up for additional afternoon
convection, will hold off for now issuing a Heat Advisory for
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Any thunderstorms that form Thursday afternoon or early evening
should dissipated by mid evening. The center of a mid level ridge
will be centered over the central Plains Friday through the
weekend. This will bring more hot weather with little chance of
rain.
A shortwave trough is expected to move across the northern
Rockies and Plains late Sunday into Monday. This feature will
help push a cold front near the northern Oklahoma border by
Monday/Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop along and near the front Monday into Tuesday with
better chances across the northern half of Oklahoma. Depending on
convective trends, the surface boundary may push far enough south
by late Tuesday into Wednesday to bring a chance of rain to parts
of southern Oklahoma, perhaps northern Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Apart from a chance for thunderstorms at PNC and SWO from late
morning Thursday, VFR conditions are expected. LLWS is expected at
TAF sites through central Oklahoma from the Red River to the
Kansas border. Moderately gusty south to southwest winds will
occur during the day Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 80 100 75 99 / 20 20 10 10
Hobart OK 80 104 77 103 / 20 20 10 10
Wichita Falls TX 82 105 78 103 / 10 10 10 10
Gage OK 74 99 74 101 / 20 20 10 10
Ponca City OK 76 98 75 100 / 30 20 10 10
Durant OK 79 101 76 100 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
811 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire.
Although the line of convection that was headed for Perry County
Missouri earlier this evening has dissipated, fresh convective
development from central Missouri into central Illinois will still
support a heavy rainfall and flooding threat late this evening
through Thursday morning. No changes to the Flood Watch are
expected.
UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
The latest radar trends indicate that our next round of convection
will be on our northwest door step within the next hour. This is
well ahead of any short range guidance, so just tried to wing it
for PoPs through the evening and into the overnight. There has
been no mention of a Severe Storm Watch being issued into our
region this evening, but we will still have to watch out for at
least some isolated damaging winds.
With all of the low-level flow from the southwest, a south or
southwestward propagating line or line segment mainly through
southeast Missouri is a likely outcome later this evening. With
the earlier onset of convective rainfall, we moved up the begin
time of the Flood Watch to 00Z. No change to the area. The biggest
concern is for the many low-water crossing in Ozark Foothills.
UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Breezy and hot conditions this afternoon with some CU across the
area. We will let the Heat Advisory run out as scheduled. Tonight,
focus turns toward convective chances. We followed closely the
ARW, FV3 and HRRR for our PoP depiction, and a mix of mean and
matched mean probability for QPF. Collab with WPC, SGF and LSX has
lead to the issuance of a Flood Watch. Concerns will increase
overnight, as PW`s over 2 inches set up over the area. We
anticipate a convective complex of storms will move southeast,
then south across the area. Southeast Missouri will be the area of
greatest concern, with PoPs lowering slightly east of the MS
River, where lower QPF is also anticipated.
The mid level energy supporting convection tonight will slowly
move over the area Thursday and to our east Thursday night. We
will translate highest PoPs from west to east Thursday and into
the night as well. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue
through Friday and Friday night as weak upper support remains over
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Broad mid-level ridging is expected to be in place for the weekend
with high pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley. However,
small scale disturbances in the Ohio Valley, along with the high
moisture content from the Gulf and plenty of daytime heating, will
allow for daily chances of showers/storms to continue for the
weekend. These storms are expected to mainly occur during the
afternoon hours and take the form of pulse storms rather than more
organized systems. Locally heavy rain will be possible but area QPF
averages for the Quad State will be low.
Models suggest a likely partial breakdown of the ridge allowing for
a cold frontal passage to move through or at least approach the Quad
State region early next week. There is still substantial differences
in timing with the operational GFS around 24 hours earlier than the
ECMWF, Monday evening vs Tuesday evening. Ensembles place the ECMWF
as the slower and rainier solution. Due to timing differences,
chance PoPs are included from Monday through Tuesday night. This
system is more likely to provide a broad coverage of decent rainfall
which will be welcome in drought affected areas. Dry weather is
anticipated behind the front as moisture flow shifts towards the
Appalachians.
Temperatures are forecast to be near 90 for the weekend for highs
and lower 70s for lows. The more active weather next week and the
likely cold frontal passage will drop highs/lows down to the mid
80s/upper 60s for the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022
Broken lines of shower and thunderstorm activity will move into
the area from northwest to southeast tonight into Thursday.
Impacts will be felt at CGI and MVN by this evening into late
tonight...with later arrivals between 06z and 12z Thursday
anticipated at PAH, EVV, and CGI. MVFR cigs will accompany the
arrival of these storms, along with brief periods of vsby
reductions under heavier activity. We`ll see improvement late in
the period as this activity exits the area. Winds will be mainly
S-SW at 5-10 kts, with higher gusts possible tonight with
thunderstorms.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ076-086-100-107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
903 PM PDT Wed Aug 3 2022
.UPDATE...Main weather concerns for the past several days have
been fire weather related--thunderstorms, wind, and low humidity--
but conditions are improving for the next couple of days. The Red
Flag Warnings will be allowed to expire at 9 PM. Thunderstorms
have quickly dissipated and shifted eastward in response to an
increasing drier westerly flow. Winds are gradually decreasing
An upper level trough is setting up over the PacNW with the center
of the low over BC. On Thursday, the bottom of the trough will be
positioned over WA/OR with a strong westerly flow. There will be a
10-15 degree drop in temperatures compared to today`s high, and
Thursday`s afternoon temps will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s
for most of the forecast area. RHs will be in the 20s and 30s
north and 15-25 percent south. It will be another windy day for
areas in and around the Columbia Basin, and many of the mountain
ridges will also be breezy to windy.
Smoke has been a bit of a challenge, as new fires and holdovers
are making their appearance in both WA and OR. Due to the
westerly flow aloft tomorrow and decent mixing, surface based
and elevated smoke should not be a major factor in air quality and
vertical visibility. The HRRR smoke product supports this.
Minor updates were made to the forecast, mainly to add some smoke
for the Cedar Fire on the west side of the central Oregon Cascades
that pushed smoke across the Bend/Redmond areas earlier today.
Wister/85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM PDT Wed Aug 3 2022/
SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Current radar and
visible satellite imagery shows isolated showers beginning to
develop across Central Oregon. There has only been one lightning
strike in Central Crook county associated with these small cells,
but storm activity will be increasing and becoming more scattered
through this afternoon and evening for Crook, Grant, and southern
Union Counties. There may be a chance of some lingering storms
making it into Southern Wallowa county later this evening, but
confidence is lacking due to their arrival being so late in the
day. HREF short-term guidance has been good with the developing
storm cells over the past several days, with recent runs
indicating an increase in storm activity for the remainder of the
day. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued until 9PM across
Central Oregon through the eastern mountains for the potential of
abundant lightning to occur with this afternoon and evening`s
developing storm cells. This extends an already active Red Flag
Warning for Central Oregon and Washington through 9PM this evening
in response to critically low Relative Humidity values coupled
with breezy to windy conditions. Fire concerns decrease after
today as cooler and more stable conditions return to the area
through the remainder of the workweek, but breezy west-northwest
wind gusts of 20-30 mph will still be possible Thursday through
the Eastern Gorge, Cascades gaps, and the Kittitas valley.
Guidance is in good agreement through the short term period, as a
closed low pressure system off the coast will shift west over the
next 24 hours in response to an incoming upper level trough
dropping into Central Washington from British Columbia. This will
keep winds breezy through the day on Thursday, but cooler
temperatures and higher relative humidities will accompany this
passing trough. Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below
average Thursday and Friday on the back end of the departing
trough. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a weaker shortwave and
closed low pressure system with recent runs over the last 12 to
24 hours, but the ECMWF does bring the closed low much closer to
the California/Oregon coasts on Friday with the newest model run.
This could produce warmer temperatures as this feature will have a
greater influence on local conditions, but current confidence is
rather lacking at this time. Winds will subside on Friday to
around 10 mph through the afternoon, with northwest winds keeping
temperatures mild. 75
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...On Saturday, a weak
trough will be over the Pacific Northwest. There are some timing
differences with the departure of this trough and the building
northwest of the large ridge from the four corners region for the
start of the new week but all odf the guidance eventually gets to
the same solution by about Monday and the heat will return.
Meanwhile, the persistent low off the California coast will begin
to move northward again through midweek and the ridge will be
pushed eastward. The main questions are does the low move more
inland or stay off the coast? Also, how far east does the ridge go
as a result?
If we look at the ensemble clusters, first with regard to the trough
over the northwest early in the period, it appears that the majority
of the guidance does not support the slower ECMWF solution keeping
the trough lingering longer, which would allow the ridge to build in
faster. By Monday into Tuesday, 3 of the clusters indicate a
slower solution, keeping the low offshore, while one indicates a
more progressive solution bringing it more inland. By Wednesday,
the split becomes 50/50 which introduces more uncertainty into the
forecast.
Regardless, it looks like a couple of potentially hot days early
next week especially across the Columbia Basin, Gorge, Blue Mountain
Foothills, and Yakima Valley.
High temperatures will rise from the upper 80s and lower 90s on
Saturday to around 100, with 100 to 105 in Basin and warmest lower
elevation areas on Monday. Sunday and Tuesday will see highs around
or just above 100 in many of these locations.
Low RH values will continue but at this point, any stronger wind
gusts look to be localized at least through about Tuesday.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...Winds will be the primary aviation concern
for the next 24 hours as tight gradients and strong winds aloft
combine to bring gusty winds for most of the terminal airports.
Winds this evening will be westerly 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts
(gusting to 30 kts at DLS) and will decrease to 15 kts or less
overnight and early Thursday morning. However, winds will increase
and will be stronger Thursday afternoon compared to today--and
additional 5-10 kts. FEW-SCT cumulus and towering cumulus this
afternoon will be followed by high cirrus clouds tonight. Wister/85
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 58 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 62 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 63 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 85 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 61 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 56 77 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 50 88 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 56 86 51 83 / 20 0 0 10
GCD 58 92 52 89 / 20 0 0 10
DLS 61 82 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...85
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...85