Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/01/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure will bring a period of light rain or showers to the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut overnight. Otherwise, dry and mild weather will continue from the Capital Region north and west. Warm and mainly dry weather will continue across the entire area Monday afternoon into Monday night, then a weak cold front will approach from the west, bringing a chance for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Monday night or Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... UPDATE as of 1025 PM EDT... A short-wave on the GOES-16 water vapor imagery is moving across central-ern NY and PA. At the sfc, a warm front is lifting slowly north from the mid Atlantic Region with a weak wave of low pressure approaching with some showers or a period of light stratiform rainfall mainly across the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and south of I-90 in the Berkshires overnight. Weak high pressure is near the upstate NY and some dry low to mid level air is over the region. We have seen the high clouds spread north and mid level clouds are over the southern most zones. We increased the PoPs over the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County CT, between midnight and 3 am based on the latest 3-km HRRR and radar trends due to the isentropic lift ahead of the weak wave. We continued some likely PoPs near KPOU and the I-84 corridor between 3 am and 6 am. Rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch. The northward extent is tricky but it appears any measurable pcpn will stay mainly along and south of the Capital District and the Mass Pike. Showalter values are above zero and lack of elevated instability looks present, so we kept thunderstorms out of the forecast. Lows will be in the mid/upper 50s over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with low to mid 60s over most of the rest of the region with some spotty upper 60s across southern Litchfield CTY and the mid Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The weak surface wave will move east of New Jersey Monday morning, with light rain ending across the lower Hudson Valley before noon. The rest of Monday will be mainly dry under a partly to mostly cloudy sky with light southerly flow. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out in this pattern Monday afternoon as there will be a little instability developing, but no real organized areas of large-scale forcing for upward motion are foreseen. High temperatures Monday will range mostly from 80 to 85, and dew points will be creeping into the mid 60s. The next system to watch will be a cold front moving east from the Great Lakes Monday night. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will move east across western into central NY Monday evening, but these should be weakening as they approach our area late Monday night. A few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder could survive with these showers into the Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and northern Catskills late Monday night, but from the Hudson Valley eastward conditions should remain dry. During the day Tuesday the remnants of this weak cold front will be crossing the area. There will likely be a couple of lines of weak forcing; perhaps a north-south oriented trough in the morning and whatever is left of the actual cold front later in the afternoon. Once again, large-scale, organized forcing for upward motion will be lacking and the atmosphere will only be marginally unstable. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday, but many areas will probably see little to no rainfall. Temperatures Tuesday will be dependent on the amount of sunshine that we see, but with any sunshine the atmosphere should be warm enough to support highs ranging from lower 80s over higher terrain, to upper 80s in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long-term weather forecast period will consist of warm to hot and humid conditions, along with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms as this summer`s anomalously strong, broad, and relentless mid-upper level ridge centered over the Interior U.S., in tandem with a strengthening/retrograding Bermuda ridge, and a series of frontal systems drive our weather pattern. We start off the extended during the middle of the workweek where the potential of hot and increasingly humid conditions will be the main focus on Wednesday and to a greater extend on Thursday. On Wednesday, strong mixing via a 1016 mb surface high over head coupled with the area being on the leading edge of some anomalous heat (i.e. 850 values ranging between 17C-19C), will translate to surface temperatures climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s along the river valleys (upper 70s to lower 80s higher elevations). On Thursday, the heat advances further east with 850 mb temperatures ranging between 20C-22C, which is +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal per NAEFS. Temperatures of this magnitude aloft will translate to temperatures well into the 90s along the river valleys (80s higher elevations). The one caveat to temperatures not reaching these levels will be cloud coverage and the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially out and ahead of a leading cold front. There`s still some uncertainty with regards to how quickly the cold front advances. Several models with ensemble support suggest a slower progression of the front which will keep things mostly dry at least during the first part of Thursday. Chance for showers and storms do increase Thursday afternoon and point forward from northwest to southeast. Will have to continue to monitor trends on the timing/forward progression of the cold front. Forecast models are hinting around at the possibility that the aforementioned front could get hung/slow over the area which would give additional chances for showers and storms Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. Have chance PoPs for Friday over the area and for areas roughly from Albany and point southeast on Saturday to reflect this possibility. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be tempered to near seasonable levels thanks to cloud coverage and shower/thunder chances. Sunday, it looks like we may have the chance to dry out with the passage of the cool front. Early the following week, there`s the potential for additional showers/storms as forecast models are advertising another storm system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tues...VFR conditions should prevail through the 00z TAF cycle for all of the TAF sites with the exception of KPOU and maybe KPSF. Rain showers associated with a weak shortwave is expected to pass mainly to our south. Forecast models do have the very northern reaches of the precipitation shield reaching as far north as perhaps KPSF. Given the situation, confidence is greatest that KPOU will see rain showers. The challenge at this time continues to be just how far north the precipitation really get. It will be a close call. For now, have mentioned VCSH for just KPOU starting at around 04z with Prob30s between 09-12z. Have opted to keep KPSF dry for now and will let the midnight shift further evaluate/assess how far north precipitation reaches. If confidence increases, then precipitation headlines will be included for KPSF (with similar timeframe as KPOU). Any rain showers will have the capabilities of reducing vsbys and perhaps cigs down to MVFR levels. Further to the north and west (i.e. KALB/KGFL) things should remain dry with flight categories remaining VFR. As far as cloud trends, expect for ceilings to lower in elevation (high clouds to low/mid clouds) in response to the aforementioned shortwave tonight. While ceilings over KALB/KGFL will remain VFR, ceilings at KPOU/KPSF are expected to be in the low VFR/high MVFR range tonight. Tonight, will be mostly cloudy over the TAF sites. Around daybreak, coverage should be better over KALB/KGFL compared to KPOU/KPSF. Once precipitation ends around daybreak, skies will gradually improve over the TAF sites giving way to a mostly sunny day on Monday. Light winds this evening is expected to remain light (at less than 5 kts) and/or become calm tonight. Calm winds overnight are expected to become light out of the south on Monday at around 5 kts. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A wave of low pressure will bring a period of light rain across the southern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut after sunset tonight. Farther north, conditions will remain dry through the night. Monday will be dry, then a weak cold front will approach from the west bringing a chance of showers with possible thunderstorms mainly to areas west of the Hudson Valley Monday night, then anywhere across the area Tuesday. Maximum relative humidity values will range from 85 to 95 percent late tonight. Minimum values will fall to 45 to 55 percent on Monday. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then southerly at 5 to 10 mph on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall will be light and spotty across the area through the middle of this week. Up to a quarter inch of rain could fall in the lower and mid-Hudson Valley and across the southern Catskills late tonight, and a cold front could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, however most areas will not receive significant amounts of rain through mid-week. This will continue to allow for rivers and streams to hold fairly steady. Many areas from the Hudson Valley eastward are now in the D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) categories in the latest US Drought Monitor. The best upcoming chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms may be on Thursday with an approaching frontal system. Any shower or t-storm on Thursday afternoon or evening could contain some locally heavy downpours. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE/Wasula NEAR TERM...MSE/Wasula SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Evbuoma FIRE WEATHER...MSE HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High pressure continues to exit eastward away from Michigan. Upstream cold front has reached the Minnesota/Wisconsin border... generating an area of showers and storms along and just ahead of it. Leading edge of this convection has reached far Western Lake Superior right on time according to the latest RAP and NAM12. Both near term models drive this leading edge to our far western CWA by around 09Z early Monday morning...and then gradually push convection thru our CWA during the day. Any storms that develop late tonight will be elevated and instability will be quite limited into early Monday (MUCAPES under 750 J/kg). Thus...svr storms are not expected...which agrees with SPC Day 1 Outlook for general thunder over our CWA. Low temps overnight will cool into the low to mid 60s. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High Impact Weather Potential: Few non-severe thunderstorms possible late tonight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is evident aloft across much of the Great Lakes region while surface ridging extends from the Northeast into the southern Great Lakes. Main focus through tonight will revolve around a mid-level shortwave, currently situated near the Ontario/Manitoba border down into the northern Plains. Attendant surface low pressure situated over northwest MN with a cold front draped to the south/southwest from there. A combination of these features will approach northern Michigan tonight, eventually bringing more cloud cover along with shower/storm chances into Monday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Increasing clouds/PoPs late tonight. Another banner summer day across northern Michigan this afternoon with high temperatures well on their way to the mid-upper 80s for most (of course a touch cooler lakeside and across portions of eastern upper). Another diurnally/instability driven high-based cu field out there currently should wane with the loss of daytime heating/sunlight as we head into this evening, which should leave initially mainly clear skies under just some passing high clouds. Low-level jet response increases this evening and especially overnight in advance of the aforementioned system approaching from the northwest. Increasing southwest winds will be the rule, most notably just off the deck -- aiding to transport deep moisture across the Northwoods (evident by PWs progged to increase to 1.50"+ west of I-75 by 12z Monday). Inherited PoPs for late tonight look to be on track with chances arriving after 3-4 AM across far western locales, increasing from there as we head toward the end of the forecast period Monday morning. By 8 AM, likely PoPs evident areas west of TVC-CAD, and along/west of M-123 in eastern upper. Some thunder certainly not out of the question in this initial shower/storm activity given 500-1,000 J/kg MLCAPE, but given the elevated nature, nearly a non-existent severe weather threat. Low temperatures tonight remaining on the mild side...spanning the && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High Impact Weather Potential: Thunder possible Monday and again Tuesday night through Wednesday. Chances of precipitation will continue through Monday evening as a cold front associated with an area of low pressure over western Quebec begins passing through northern Michigan. This will produce chances of rain/thunder in the warm sector just ahead of the cold front with continued chances throughout the day as the cold front moves through northern Michigan. The intensity of any thunderstorms that do happen to develop will once again depend on the exact timing of the cold front and residual cloud cover from any convection tonight/early Monday to inhibit instability. There is around 1000- 1200 J/Kg MUCAPE early Monday morning. If we are able to have some sunshine Monday and the front is still passing through we could realize upwards of around 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. If we do happen to realize this potential energy we may have to worry about a few stronger/severe storms Monday afternoon...although at this time pretty descent cloud cover is progged over northern Michigan. Best chances would be over northeast lower Michigan. Something to keep an eye on for future forecasts. High pressure then builds back into the region for Tuesday...renewing precipitation free weather and nearly normal temperatures for this time of the year. This high pressure and precipitation free weather will however be short-lived as another area of low pressure and strong moisture advection ahead of the approaching cold front may produce another round of thunderstorms and possibly some heavy rain that could cause some minor flooding. Northern Michigan is currently in Day 3 Excessive Rainfall from WPC. PWATS are progged to exceed 2.00" by Wednesday afternoon along with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Highest threat from any strong/severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind and heavy rainfall. Southwesterly winds will veer to northwesterly throughout the day Monday behind the departing cold front. Winds then become fairly light Tuesday under high pressure, with just a bit of a northerly component before southwesterly winds begin ramping up Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front with gusts of 25-30 mph possible during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler Monday with the passage of a cold front, reaching into the low to mid 70s for most, although portions of northeast lower may make a run to near 80 as that location resides in the warm sector ahead of the cold front the longest. Tuesday will warm a bit...reaching into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 and then 80s to low 90s Wednesday with the strong temperature/moisture advection on southwesterly winds. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time. Rain chances may linger across portions of northeast lower (mainly closer to the Saginaw Bay region) early Thursday with the tail end of the cold front mentioned in the previous forecast period still passes through. Typical summertime chances of rain appear to remain through the weekend...but the chances of seeing nothing will be better than receiving any precipitation as rain chances are very low...only around 20-30 percent. Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday and Friday behind the departing system...reaching only into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Low pressure and an associated cold front will swing thru Wisconsin and Upper Michigan overnight...and then thru Lower Michigan on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across Northern Lower Michigan very late tonight and thru the day on Monday as this system tracks thru our area. Southerly surface winds AOB 10 kts overnight will shift to the SW at 10 to 20 kts and eventually W/NW at 15 to 25 kts on Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Southwest winds continue this afternoon through at least midday Monday. While a few gusts to 25 kts remain possible, especially near Sleeping Bear to Pt. Betsie, gusts to that level should be rather fleeting. Long southwest fetch over Lake Michigan will build waves near Seul Choix Pt to 4+ ft this evening with the inherited SCA continuing. More frequent Small Craft Advisory conditions anticipated Monday, initially from the southwest through early afternoon before turning more west-northwesterly behind a cold front for the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and storms likely to accompany this frontal boundary at times very late tonight into Monday as well. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for MIZ020-025-098-099. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MLR NEAR TERM...MJG SHORT TERM...TJL LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MJG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 105 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ Through Monday. Subtropical mid-level ridging persists over the Southwest Atlantic Basin and extends west over the Wiregrass portion of the state, while persisting ridging aloft is centered over Western Texas. A longwave trough extends from over South-Central Canada and extends south into the Mid Mississippi River Valley region. A weak surface boundary continues to retreat northward further away from the area across the Tennessee Valley region while a weak surface trough was analyzed near the Interstate 20 corridor. Surface high pressure was positioned to the east of the Florida peninsula. A few storms today may produce gusty winds due to some drier air in the mid levels. The wet microburst risk is on the lower end of the moderate range. Relatively slow storm motions coupled with moist low-level conditions will support heavy rainfall in the heavier activity today. With some spots receiving over an inch of rain yesterday, there will be potential for some water ponding, especially in low-lying, urban and poor drainage areas. Today. A weak trough roughly parallel to I-20 is supporting isolated to scattered showers that are developing across the northern third of the forecast area. Meanwhile, drier air aloft was moved in from the east across the South/Southeast areas and this is resulting in fair skies in these areas. Slow moving showers and storms are located to our northwest from Northern Mississippi into Western Tennessee. This activity appears to be aided by divergent flow aloft as depicted in RAP modeling. Showers are developing ahead of this activity at this writing across Northeast and East-Central Mississippi and expect this trend to continue. Rain chances will increase later this afternoon across the north and northwest as the activity to the northwest approaches the area. Winds today will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. Highs will upper 80s north to the mid 90s south. Tonight. Mid-level ridging will remain over the far southeast while the longwave trough moves east over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley regions. Showers with a few storms will diminish with time as best chances for activity will linger across the northern portion of the area. Moisture in the lower levels will support some patchy fog and low cloud development before sunrise Monday morning. Winds will be light and variable. Lows will range from near 70 in the higher elevations east to the lower 70s south and west. Monday. As the longwave trough continues moving east over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley regions, most modeling depicts a shortwave disturbance moving east over the northern portion of the state from mid morning through midday. The result will be increasing clouds across the northern and western sections with chances for showers and some thunderstorms rising during this time frame and persisting into the afternoon hours. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. Highs will range from the upper 80s northwest to the mid 90s south. 05 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0309 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ Ridging remains dominant across the southern CONUS, keeping the main shortwave/storm track to our north. Weaknesses in the ridge will help guide rain chances through the extended, with chances during most periods. No significant changes are needed this afternoon. 14 Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0337 AM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022/ Tuesday through Saturday. Warm and humid conditions expected through much of the upcoming week. The Bermuda High will continue to be the main feature across the Southeastern CONUS with generally weak flow aloft. The lingering upper level energy from the previous trough axis will persist just to our south, providing some focus for higher thunderstorm chances across the southern half of central AL. Broad ridging builds in across the Great Plains towards the end of the week, which should lead to gradual warming trend for us in Central AL. With the humid air mass persisting, heat indices will likely trend upwards as well with values approaching triple digits by the weekend. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Convective activity will continue for areas north of I-20 thru 03z. Current radar trends keep the tstms just outside the 10 mile range for the TCL/BHM airports, and will not include any weather for these two TAF sites in the early portion of the TAF period. VFR conds expected thru the period with no cig or vsbys issues. A layer of relatively drier air spread across south Alabama today, and this should keep lower cigs across far north Alabama overnight. Re-development of showers and tstms expected Monday afternoon, and handled with PROB30 groups. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected the next couple of days, with the activity focused across the north on Monday and south on Tuesday. 20ft winds remain out of the west through early next week, but less than 10mph. Min RHs will be near or above 50% for most of the area through the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 88 71 90 70 / 50 60 20 50 20 Anniston 71 89 72 89 71 / 20 50 20 50 20 Birmingham 74 91 74 90 72 / 30 50 20 60 20 Tuscaloosa 73 92 74 91 72 / 20 50 20 60 20 Calera 72 91 73 89 73 / 20 40 20 60 20 Auburn 73 91 73 89 72 / 10 30 20 60 20 Montgomery 74 95 74 92 73 / 0 30 20 60 20 Troy 73 94 73 91 72 / 0 30 20 70 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through the northern Great Lakes tonight and Monday dragging a weak cold front through the area late Monday. High pressure will briefly return Tuesday before the front comes back north as a warm front by Wednesday ahead of another cold front by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Added in mention of a few areas of patchy fog overnight across the southeast portion of the area near the OH/PA border where lower wind speeds will reside. Previous Discussion... The pesky little surface low has now exited across PA allowing skies to become mostly sunny. The lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region will be in between systems this evening and tonight as we await the approach of a mid/upper shortwave trough currently located over North Dakota and Minnesota. This will lead to a pleasant evening, although increasing warm air advection will continue to gradually increase dew points tonight making it feel more on the muggy side. This will hold low temperatures in the low/mid 60s tonight. The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave will continue east into the western Great Lakes Monday morning and into the eastern Great Lakes by Monday night, slightly deepening a trailing longwave trough in response across the Great Lakes region. The associated surface low will track from north of Lake Superior Monday morning across southern Hudson Bay early Monday night dragging a cold front across our region Monday evening into Monday night. Ahead of the front, a continued increase in warm/moist advection will pull a much more moisture rich airmass into the region as a diffuse warm front lifts through the area by afternoon. Dew points should pool in the low 70s by mid to late afternoon in the warm sector as the trailing cold front approaches, and what looks like a decent amount of sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures into the mid/upper 80s. The combination of the increased heat and humidity, large scale ascent ahead of the approaching mid/upper shortwave and associated PVA, and low-level convergence ahead of the cold front will trigger a broken line of thunderstorms which will cross the region from west to east. Timing among the latest HREF members suggests initiation in NW Ohio in the 16-18Z timeframe, with the convection then crossing north central Ohio between 20 and 23Z and far NE Ohio and NW PA between 21 and 01Z. However, added chance PoPs in NW Ohio with this forecast package starting around 15Z since NAM and RAP forecast soundings suggest very little capping, so it is possible to see some activity farther east a couple of hours sooner as well. In terms of severe potential, I am not very impressed. This looks like the makings of a typical August scattered thunderstorm event ahead of a cold front where most areas will see brief heavy rain and thunder/lightning, and a few storms could be locally severe with damaging downburst winds and localized flooding, but nothing widespread. There are several reasons for this. First, the greatest upper level dynamics are lagging behind the cold front across the northern and central Great Lakes causing H3 winds to only average 40- 50 knots and H5 winds to only average 35-40 knots across our region in the warm sector Monday afternoon and evening. This limits deep layer (0-6 Km) shear to generally 25-30 knots, 0-1 Km shear to 15-20 knots, and effective shear to 30-35 knots. These are very marginal values and point to vigorous updrafts not being sustained for long. Second, abundant warm air aloft, typical for August, will limit mid- level lapse rates to 6 to 6.5 C/Km which is okay, but not great. The tongue of steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to Indiana and far western Ohio, so the result is MLCAPE values being limited to 1000-2000 J/Kg in much of north central and NE Ohio into NW PA in the afternoon and evening, with better 2000-3000 J/Kg values over the far western and southwestern counties. However, these higher MLCAPE values are displaced from the greater shear which will be near Lake Erie. In summary, the shear is very marginal, and the best instability is displaced from the better shear. Despite these negatives, it is August, so these hot and moist low-level airmasses do trigger a few severe storms with damaging winds, and this will be the case tomorrow as forecast soundings indicate some mid-level dry air entrainment to enhance downdraft potential (DCAPE values at least over 900 J/Kg), so the SPC upgraded to a Slight Risk in their SWODY2 from parts of Wood and Sandusky Counties southeast through parts of Richland and Ashland Counties and points south from there. In terms of heavy rain potential, the relatively brief period of strong warm air advection before the cold frontal passage limits PWATs to 1.30 to 1.65 inches, and a low-level jet veering more WSW by evening (more perpendicular to the front) should allow for fairly quick movement without much training. The orientation of shear vectors suggest west-east progressing multicell clusters, so any flash flood threat will be isolated to urban and poor draining areas. Most areas will dry out behind the cold front Monday night as sprawling surface high pressure builds in from the western Great Lakes, but the front slowing down in far eastern Ohio and western PA in response to a building mid/upper ridge in the Plains/Mississippi Valley will cause showers and thunder to linger there longer, so held onto chance PoPs through the night. Lows Monday night will stay in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Fair weather is likely Tuesday through Tuesday night as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds eastward across our CWA. Late afternoon highs should reach the lower to mid 70`s in northwest PA and the mid 70`s to mid 80`s in northern OH. Overnight lows should settle into mainly the mid 50`s to mid 60`s Tuesday night. The coolest lows should be concentrated in interior northwest PA and far-northeast OH, while the warmest lows should be concentrated in our I-75 corridor counties. Our weather becomes much warmer and more humid Wednesday through Wednesday night as the high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft exits eastward and a trough aloft and accompanying surface cold front approach from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. This pattern will promote low-level warm and moist air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This advection pattern combined with daytime heating will promote moderate to perhaps strong boundary layer destabilization during the afternoon and early evening. Boundary layer CAPE should then wane to weak magnitudes later Wednesday evening and overnight as some nocturnal cooling occurs. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening, given the forecast diurnal range in instability, including MUCAPE. Late afternoon highs should easily reach the upper 80`s to mid 90`s and be followed by balmy lows in the mid 60`s to mid 70`s overnight Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday when the aforementioned surface cold front is progged to sweep southeastward through our CWA and encounter a sufficiently-humid and unstable boundary layer, and the associated trough aloft overspreads our region from the western Great Lakes. Daytime highs should reach the mid to upper 80`s prior to the front`s passage. Periodic isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur Thursday night through this weekend as the trough aloft becomes entrenched over our area due to a blocking downstream ridge aloft over/near the U.S. East Coast. Given the cooler air aloft associated with the trough, self-destructive sunshine should act as the primary trigger for convection development. Therefore the potential and coverage of showers and storms should be maximized each afternoon and early evening due to the typical diurnal range in surface air temperatures and instability. At the surface, the core of a high pressure ridge near Lake Superior Thursday night should eventually be absorbed by the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge as surface ridging affects our region. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 60`s Thursday night through Saturday night. Daily highs should reach the upper 70`s to lower 80`s on Friday and the 80`s this weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR across the TAF sites this evening with generally VFR to persist through the TAF period, though pockets of MVFR and perhaps IFR associated with thunderstorms are possible towards the end of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening, though uncertainty remains on coverage and eventual impacts on individual TAF sites. Thus, have generally kept the vcts mention across all TAF sites, with a 2-hour prob30 addition at CLE from 23-01Z for -tsra. Winds are generally from the south this evening, around 5 knots, with the exception of a lake breeze at CLE/ERI which will shift back around to the south over the next couple of hours. South to southwest winds will increase tomorrow afternoon into the 10 to 15 knot range with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible. Behind the cold front tomorrow evening, winds will shift towards the west and northwest, 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lower ceilings Monday night into Tuesday morning across NE OH and NW PA. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday. && .MARINE... As a high pressure ridge departs eastward, light and variable winds today become southerly to southwesterly at about 10 to 15 knots tonight into Monday. Waves should trend 3 feet or less in U.S. waters. Southwesterly winds of about 15 to 20 knots shift to northwesterly Monday night as a cold front sweeps eastward across Lake Erie. Waves of 2 to 4 feet are expected, especially in the central and eastern basins. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially east of Avon Point. Another high pressure ridge should build eastward across Lake Erie on Tuesday and be accompanied by northwesterly winds of about 10 to 15 knots in the morning, becoming light and variable later in the day. Waves should subside to 2 feet or less. The ridge should begin to exit eastward Wednesday through Wednesday night. Primarily southerly to southwesterly winds of about 10 to 17 knots are expected on the backside of the ridge. Waves should be 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are possible in open waters of the central and eastern basins. Another cold front should sweep southeastward across Lake Erie on Thursday and cause southwesterly winds of about 10 to 15 knots to shift toward northerly. Winds should then become northerly to northeasterly on Friday as high pressure builds from the Upper Great Lakes. Waves should be 3 feet or less. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Kahn SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Jaszka
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1040 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Decent coverage of storms upstream currently over wrn WI/MSP and these are still expected to arrive in wrn Lwr MI shortly before daybreak. Coverage of convection may tail off a bit between now and daybreak as instability wanes, but should increase again overhead by mid morning as instability rebuilds. Latest RAP/HRRR Fcst soundings for 15Z Monday just ahead of the front are a bit concerning, showing MLCapes near 1500 J/KG and decent deep layer shear near 35 kts. There`s even good shear down low, with Sfc-1 KM SRH of 100-150 m/s and curved low level hodographs. The 0-3KM cape prog from the RAP shows 800-1200 J/KG near and south of I-96, so good buoyancy down low too. This occurs as lower 70s sfc dew points are sneaking in ahead of the sfc front and mid level shtwv, which also leads to low LCL heights. It appears that a low end tornado risk could exist in this environment if stronger sfc-based storms can develop before fropa, but that`s still a big if. The new 00Z NAM coming in now is not as bullish as RAP/HRRR with sfc based capes. Still this bears watching. The main time frame of concern would be roughly 10 AM to 3 PM. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 --Showers possible tonight, Monday-- Currently, a cold front extends south from a low over northwest Minnesota. Dewpoints ahead of the front are in the upper 60s/lower 70s and we`ll see that moisture take aim at SW Lower later tonight and Monday. Precipitable water value trends have increased a bit with the latest model runs and now are closing in on 2 inches by 12z. We`ll probably see showers and perhaps a thunderstorm move east from Wisconsin late tonight, but would expect most of the thunderstorms to be north of the cwa, closer to the short wave. Shear values increase Monday to around 35 knots. There will be a window during the afternoon, where the southeast cwa may see enough instability develop to take advantage of the moisture supply and stronger mid level winds to produce stronger storms. The remnants of overnight convection will go a long way in determining how much the atmosphere is able to recover. -- Heat Wednesday, followed by the potential for heavy rain-- The GFS shows a weak signal for a few storms Tuesday night, mainly from a short wave moving through. However, the ECMWF and NamNest haven`t bought into that yet. A strong surge of low level moisture will push dewpoints into the lower 70s Wednesday, that when combined with highs in the lower 90s will yield heat indices in the upper 90s; a Heat Advisory may be needed Wednesday. Precipitable water values increase to over 2 inches Wednesday. Storms firing along the cold front late Wednesday will encounter a strengthening low level jet and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Mid level winds more parallel to the front may give a nod to the slower ECMWF solution which keeps precipitation over the cwa through Wednesday night. --A bit cooler late in the week-- Thursday and Friday will see cooler temperatures; highs around 80. However, given dewpoints remaining in the 60s, the air will feel humid. We may see showers/storms move over the cwa again Sunday ahead of another cold front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 VFR weather will continue much of tonight although after 09Z the threat/coverage of showers and tstms will ramp up from west to east. Any terminals impacted by heavier rainfall rates early Monday morning could see some brief periods of MVFR or lower vsbys with these showers/storms. About a 6 hour period of MVFR cigs is anticipated with the cold frontal passage on Monday, mainly between 12Z and 18Z. Conditions trending toward primarily VFR after 18Z Monday as showers end and cigs lift and/or scatter out behind the front. South winds less than 10 kts expected much of tonight, but increasing after 09Z as the front approaches from the west. MKG should turn particularly windy by 12Z Mon with gusts to 30 kts possible. Winds shifting westerly 15-25 kts and gusty behind the front for Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 No changes to the marine headlines. We expect low level winds to increase tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will increase after 09z before beginning to decrease by early afternoon. Waves will take a few hours longer to subside. Another Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of another cold front. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Meade MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
815 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through early this evening, as an old frontal boundary slowly lifts north to southern Virginia. A summerlike pattern can be expected during the upcoming week, with high pressure situated off the Carolina coasts with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening. && .UPDATE... Latest HRRR illustrates a lack of convection overnight as the best dynamics associated with the warm front lift further north of the local area overnight. Subsidence across the area, especially across the ILM SC Counties where sfc dewpoints have dropped temporarily into the 60s. Will see occasional mid and high level convective debris clouds this evening that should thin out to just thin cirrus overnight into daylight Mon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary just north of the NC Triad, trying to edge its way into southern Virginia. Showers and storms have popped up this afternoon with help of this boundary. Some of these storms have been severe well to the north of northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina, but the good news is that the scattered activity around here has not been as threatening. Expecting widely scattered showers and storms to continue through this afternoon, before leveling off soon after sunset this evening. Slight SSW breeze expected tonight, which should help us avoid widespread fog early Monday morning. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s. It took awhile, but forecast guidance is finally in good agreement on how Monday turns out. Base of mid-level shortwave trough looks roughly bisect the forecast area, which had been the overall suspicion the last few days (as opposed to some guidance having the base dip much farther south). Smaller shortwaves traverse along this broader feature throughout the day. Seeing some better shear vorticity along the northern half of the area, and have kept a modest chance of afternoon showers and storms. However, stacked Bermuda ridge will try to argue this idea. Mid-level dry air infiltrates the column, and one or two inversions may keep the atmosphere capped throughout the day. Either way, keeping rain chances considerably lower along the coast. Highs in the low-to-mid 90s again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A weak mid/upper trough, along with a band of higher PWATs, across the forecast area will support carrying some POPs into Monday evening. During Tuesday a weak surface trough may become situated across the forecast area, and the seabreeze will likely become active as well. Best chances across most areas will be Tuesday afternoon/evening. However, with the highest PWATs displaced off the coast any convection will likely remain scattered versus numerous. Otherwise, southwesterly flow will maintain above normal lows (generally mid 70s) each night, and above high temperatures (mid 90s inland areas) during Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak surface trough will become established farther inland during Wednesday while the weakness aloft between subtropical ridges drifts toward the west. As a result, expect scattered diurnally driven convection with the weak surface trough and seabreeze front to provide some focus, with the best chances across inland areas. GEFs suggest the aforementioned weakness aloft will be a little farther west than the operational run by Thursday. Additionally, the axis of higher PWATs should shift westward as well with the best chances across the far inland zones. Similar conditions are expected Friday. Increasing coverage of afternoon/evening convection is possible during the upcoming weekend with the weakness between the subtropical ridges shifting back toward the east. Max/min temperatures will continue to be above through mid-week, then near normal highs the latter half of the week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Convection has ended across southeast NC and northeast SC...and as a result have removed remaining thunderstorm activity across all terminals this evening. Will deal with mid and upper level convective debris clouds this evening that should thin out to just high level cirrus by daybreak Mon. Expect a more typical summer time chance for convection from mid-afternoon into the evening and have only mentioned vcts for each terminal. S to SW winds remain active overnight, keeping fog development at bay at all terminals. Winds become active WSW-W and gusty during Mon as the sfc pg tightens-some overnight thru Mon. In addition, active WSW winds in the low levels will keep a somewhat pinned sea breeze, with winds only backing to SSW-SW direction at MYR/CRE and may take until late aftn for ILM to observe the sea breeze passage. Extended Outlook...Low chance for patchy MVFR/IFR low stratus and/or ground fog mainly inland terminals around sunrise each morning. Periodic MVFR/IFR expected with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each aftn and evening through the upcoming week. && .MARINE... Through Monday...A breezy but overall benign marine period here. Southwesterly flow continues over the waters, with winds at 15-18kts with gusts up to 20-23kts. Main southerly swell at 2-3ft at 5 seconds, with a secondary southeasterly swell clocking in at 8-10 seconds. Monday Night through Friday... SWly flow will persist Monday night through much of the forecast period (outside of any convection) as surface high pressure of the Carolinas coast dominates the larger scale flow. Speeds will ebb and flow diurnally with the seabreeze circulation each day. Seas will average 2-4 ft through most of the extended time frame, but will be choppy at times, especially each afternoon and evening. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...DCH MARINE...IGB/SRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
911 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A warm front will bring warmer and more humid air back into the region tonight through much of the upcoming week. A weather system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Monday with a risk of strong to severe storms south of I-72 Monday afternoon and evening. Heat index values will likely reach dangerously hot levels this week, peaking around 105 Wednesday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 An approaching cold front, currently producing convection near the I-35 corridor in northern IA/southern MN is the main feature of interest overnight. Ahead of the front, warm and moist air will continue to overspread central IL late this evening. Dewpoints should be into the lower 70s by early morning. A low level jet and warm advection aloft could initiate scattered showers ahead of the main convective line, as hinted at by several recent CAM solutions. In fact, the latest 00Z HRRR run essentially disorganizes the line by the time it reaches the IL River Valley in favor of scattered showers/thunderstorms reaching all the way past I-70 by 12Z. For now, this seems a plausible solution and supported by a couple of runs now. Have updated forecast for an earlier, and broader coverage to showers in the early morning as a result. Otherwise, lows near 70 seem on track for tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Mid afternoon surface analysis shows a warm front lifting ne into central IL with muggier dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of I-64 with our CWA generally dry so far today with variable cloud cover. Temps were in the upper 70s/lower 80s with Peoria at 85F. Latest CAMs show isolated convection possible south of a Effingham to Robinson line into early evening until sunset so continued slight pops in southeast IL. Focus then shifts to our nw with cold front pushing se toward the IL river valley by 12Z/7 am Monday and bringing chance of convection into areas from Peoria nw late tonight. Models still differ with evolution of this band of convection which would occur with the cold front as it pushes se over portions of central IL during Mon morning. Think this may be a weakening state with this band of convection and models generally keeping it over ne CWA Mon morning and some even dry over CWA Mon morning. Convection should redevelop during mid/late Monday afternoon as it moves se with cold front into southeast IL and pushes se of Lawrence county by 00Z/7 pm Mon. SPC day2 has marginal risk for damaging winds from Rushville to Bloomington south Mon afternoon, and feel this severe threat may be focused further south of I-72 where moderate to strong instability CAPEs peak at or above 3000 j/kg and moderate wind shear of 30-35 kts. Downdraft CAPE values are about 1200 j/kg while high freezing levels may limit large hail production. PW values of 1.5-2 inches Mon afternoon south of I-72 so moderate to heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms that occur. Lows tonight in the lower 70s, with some upper 60s in east central IL. Highs Monday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints pooling in the mid to upper 70s Mon afternoon in southeast IL to give heat indices peaking from 100 to 105 degrees from I-70 south before cold front and possible convection passes through by late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Convection chances diminish in southeast IL after sunset and carried slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of I-74 Monday night. Weak high pressure ridge shifts east of IL on Tue morning with return south flow developing during the day Tue and returning hot and humid weather and isolated convection possible. Highs Tue in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 70s by Tue afternoon. Heat indices Tue afternoon to rise to near or just above 100F sw CWA and southeast IL, while SW IL could see Heat indices approaching 105F. A stronger wx system to move se toward nw IL Wed afternoon and will see breezy SSW winds bring a hot and humid day to the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 105F or higher over much of CWA. A heat advisory will likely be needed then. Have 30-40% chance of thunderstorms by late Wed afternoon from IL river nw with 20% chance as far southeast as I-72 by 00Z/7 pm Wed. The frontal boundary to push se into central IL during Wed night likely bringing showers and thunderstorms. Could be chance of strong to severe storms Wed night with high instability ahead of cold front Wed afternoon/evening. PW values rising to 2-2.5 inches to also give risk of heavy rains Wed night. Medium range models keep high chances of showers and thunderstorms on Thu especially east of the IL river, while chance of showers and thunderstorms linger in southeast IL Friday as front moves se over the Ohio river valley/KY. Cooler highs Thu in the mid 80s and lower 80s Friday. Subtropical ridge builds into IL this weekend (500 mb heights rise to near 594 dm or higher) and likely builds the summertime heat and humidity back into the area. Highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and upper 80s to near 90F next Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop from 10Z-12Z until 15Z-19Z across most of the central IL terminals, with chances lowest toward the southwest including KSPI. Otherwise, VFR conditions conditions are expected for most of the period, although some isolated MVFR cigs are possible through 02Z and some isolated MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible with any thunderstorms Monday morning/early afternoon. Winds S 8-10 kts overnight, becoming W-NW 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts behind a cold front, after 15Z-19Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SYNOPSIS...37 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1052 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 957 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 The recent HRRR runs have trended quicker bringing in Minnesota and Iowa convection and have a good handle on the current spatial and temporal aspects. Chatting with ILX, LOT and IWX, decided to bring chance PoPs into the Wabash Valley 09z-12z. Plenty of instability with MU CAPES to 1000 or so J/Kg moving in along with 50 knot upper speed max over lower Michigan and a modest 30 knot low level jet approaching. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 * Chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday * Isolated severe potential south and east Rest of Today and Tonight Cloud cover is gradually increasing this afternoon as a shortwave trough makes its way through Indiana. Showers earlier today across our southern counties have mostly come to an end. A few light returns on radar have been occasionally noted over Knox and Daviess counties. Will maintain slight PoPs across the south. A surface low currently over northern Minnesota will move across the Great Lakes overnight, dragging a cold front southeastward. This front will approach the region late tonight or even early Monday. There remains some disagreement within the CAMs regarding upstream convection. A few models depict convection persisting along the boundary into the night and entering our CWA early in the morning. There is some credence to this scenario, as a strengthening low- level jet and strong moisture advection may allow a pre-existing convective system to sustain southeastward. The greatest likelihood for morning showers and storms would be in our northern and northwestern counties. Should a convective system sustain itself overnight, it will likely be weakening as it approaches...gradually dissipating Monday morning as the LLJ diminishes. Monday and Monday Night The cold front itself should continue towards central Indiana Monday morning as well. There is good agreement within the various models showing showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along this boundary. However, decent model spread regarding the evolution of these storms remains. The possibility of lingering morning convection may play a role determining how the afternoon convection plays out. Should morning convection be present, lingering cloud cover and cold pools may hold down instability. Additionally, these areas of differential heating may allow any remnant outflow boundary to become a focal point for renewed convective initiation. Some earlier HRRR runs have shown such a scenario unfolding, as well as the NSSL WRF. Should morning convection not persist into our CWA, a more pristine environment can exist for afternoon convective development. Any development would be concentrated along the cold front itself, which could organize into multicells or perhaps an embedded supercell given a shear vector initially perpendicular to the boundary. This scenario is best represented in recent 3km NAM runs. Model soundings characterize the pre-frontal environment with moderate shear and instability, roughly 30 to 40 kts and 3000 J/kg respectively. A fairly wide CAPE profile within the hail growth zone, along with strong upper-level flow, may allow for some instances of large hail. However, fairly high freezing levels should limit the hail threat to the strongest cells. Dry air aloft, mainly above 700 mb, gives the potential for strong cold pools and downdrafts. Model soundings indicate as much as 1500 J/kg DCAPE. Given the dry and relatively fast mid-level flow, strong to damaging wind gusts could easily be transfered down to the surface. Compared to the hail potential, damaging winds appear to the be primary threat. Additionally, a conditional low-probability flooding potential exists as southwesterly winds promote storm regeneration / propagation towards the southwest. Cold pools should spread southeastward, while convection preferentially redevelops on the southwest side...allowing the resulting convective system to become more shear parallel. This could lead to training storms and an increased chance of flooding. One potential limiting factor for thunderstorm potential is a warm layer around 850mb. This modest cap could inhibit convection until late in the afternoon, which may allow the front to make it most of the way through our CWA before convection finally is able to initiate. That would place the best chance of storms in our eastern and southern counties. && .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 - Warming and dry on Tuesday and Wednesday - Rain chances Wednesday Night through Sunday Tuesday through Wednesday... Northwest flow aloft is expected to be pushed farther northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong area of high pressure in place over the American Southwest pushes a ridge axis aloft east and builds across the Ohio Valley. Subsidence appears in place across Indiana on Tuesday and Wednesday aloft as surface high pressure found SE of Indiana allows a warm and humid southerly flow into the Ohio Valley. Thus will aim for mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights along with hot temperatures. Once again highs should be in the lower 90s.. Wednesday night through Sunday... Models suggest a strong area of high pressure will settle over the American southwest and western plains, once again allowing the development of NW flow aloft over Central Indiana. An upper level trough and short wave is expected to push toward Central Indiana on Wednesday night before becoming stalled across Indiana, OH and the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday through Sunday. Within the lower levels a stalled surface front will linger beneath this upper trough, providing a focus for surface convergence each day through Sunday. Mid levels hint at sufficient moisture lingering within the trough area. Meanwhile forecast soundings show attainable convective temperatures with sufficient CAPE and moisture available to trigger diurnal showers and perhaps a storm. Thus will include daily pops during this time given the favorable ingredients for precipitation shown. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1051 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Impacts: - VFR Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR and worse after 09z due to developing low stratus. - Thunderstorms possible after 09z and through 17z at KLAF and later over the other sites. - Winds 200-230 degrees less than 10 knots overnight and increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots after 17z. Finally, winds will shift to 270-310 degrees 10 knots and less in the wake of a cold front after 18z. Discussion: A cold front will drop southeast across the terminals this afternoon. The front will interact with a warm, humid and unstable atmosphere and result in afternoon convection. Prior to that, VFR flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and worse toward daybreak as an inversion sets up atop a moist boundary layer and results in stratus development. Also, Minnesota and Iowa convection may reach KLAF and KHUF 09z-12z, so added VCTS there. Winds will be southwest 10 knots or less overnight and increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will then shift to the west and northwest in the wake of the cold front, late this afternoon and evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...MK Short Term...Eckhoff Long Term...Puma Aviation...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
903 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...Isolated Thunderstorms Possible tonight into Monday... .SYNOPSIS...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible tonight into Monday as mid/upper level moisture advects northward across the region. Otherwise, seasonable weather conditions will prevail across the region with inland areas heating up by midweek. && of 09:00 PM PDT Sunday... It`s an active evening across the West with a dirty high pressure system extending from the southern Great Basin through the Four Corners region and an upper low off the NorCal coast. Tropical Cyclone Frank was also churning well offshore from Baja. The low pressure system has created a weakness within the upper ridge and was allowing rich mid-upper moisture associated with the Southwestern Monsoon to migrate into our area on southeasterly winds aloft. Precipitable water values have already increased appreciably with the 01.00z OAK sounding exhibiting a daily- record-breaking value of 1.62 inches. For reference, the daily evening mean is 0.75 inches with the 90th percentile value being 1.03 inches. However despite this high value a notable dry layer was present below 500 mb with a very large dewpoint depression. Scattered high-based showers that developed today have produced very little in the way of rainfall and this sounding profile really illustrates the reason why. As we head through the overnight hours forecast models suggest some deepening of the moist layer as 700 mb relative humidity values increase to around 75 percent across the Central Coast. With time this moistening should make its way farther north into the Bay Area later in the morning/afternoon on Monday. Some instability will accompany this moisture push as weak vorticity ripples rotate anticyclonically around the upper ridge. So it does appear we`ll be able to get a little more shower action for the remainder of the night into Monday. But the question is: will we get thunder? I`d like to say that confidence is appreciably higher from yesterday but unfortunately this remains a conditional setup. Things do look decent on the moisture front. However the rather amorphous forcing for ascent and so-so mid- level lapse rates do give a bit of pause. That said it`s hard to ignore the impressive elevated instability shown among high- resolution guidance like the RAP along the leading edge of the moisture gradient. Unfortunately beyond this the meso models aren`t making things much clearer with mixed signals regarding convection coverage and placement. This is one where the mesoscale details will play a key role, and this will require careful assessment through the night. It`s worth noting that even one lightning strike could be quite problematic in the wrong place given the very dry fuels out there. So we`ll stay the course with this forecast keeping a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight and into Monday. We did make a few adjustments this evening to increase PoPs a little for inland portions of the Central Coast and to better refine timing/placement of showers and thunderstorms into Monday based on a consensus of the high resolution models. It`s worth noting that some model solutions keep precipitation chances going into Tuesday so this may need a closer look with the overnight forecast update. && .PREV of 02:47 PM PDT Sunday...Local radar shows scattered showers moving northward over the SF Bay area. While much of this is virga, several enthusiastic reports have come in via social media showing light rain or sprinkles. It doesn`t appear to be measurable at this time. These sprinkles or light showers may continue through the afternoon as upper level moisture continues to advect into the region from the southeast. Otherwise, a broken deck of high clouds appears on visible satellite imagery, and lightning detection networks are flashing over the southern Sierra and the interior deserts of SoCal into southern NV. Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper low spinning a few hundred miles off of the NorCal coast, while a ridge of high pressure remains over the SW Conus. These features will help funnel moisture up through CA over the next two days. PWATs will continue to increase through tonight with models showing amounts reaching up to 1.6"-1.8". Instability parameters will also be on the rise, with steep mid-level lapse rates already in place. This, along with abundant moisture and a pulse of energy riding around the upper ridge may combine to set off high-based showers and/or t-storms. Despite the moisture in place, lightning brings the risk of fire starts and fire spread. Areas that have not been influenced by the marine layer in recent weeks (above ~2500 ft and the interior valleys) carry very dry fuels which could easily ignite. While overall lightning risk is low, potential dangers are high, as we`ve witnessed with current and recent wildfires in the Sierra, interior valleys, and far northern CA. As the forecast will likely change, please stay tuned for any updates. Showers and slight thunderstorm risk will continue through Monday into possible Monday evening in northern parts of the CWA, before instability diminishes. Will continue to see some monsoonal moisture Tuesday, along with moisture potentially from Hurricane Frank`s remnants but storms appear unlikely at this time. Temperatures will be pretty seasonable. Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are likely Wednesday and Thursday, as the low pressure center off the coast moves farther out to sea and ridging takes hold. Temperatures then moderate by the end of the week into the weekend. && of 05:45 PM Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR into the evening with some SCT-BKN cloud decks hanging around 15-20 kft expected to persist throughout much of the TAF period as monsoonal moisture continues to move through the area. Current radar showing some elevated showers north of KAPC, though likely not much making it to the ground at this point. Focus will shift towards showers currently moving into the southern portions of our area, expected to impact southern terminals by 07Z and Bay Area terminals after 10Z. Kept TS out of the TAFs for now with widespread lightning not expected near terminals, though the chance of a few strikes is non-zero through Monday morning. MVFR cigs likely overnight with IFR-LIFR locally in the early morning hours for Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR will last into the evening with MVFR cigs expected before midnight through about 16Z Monday morning. Overnight tonight, expect scattered showers after midnight with the possibility for more widespread coverage during the early morning hours Monday between 12-14Z. As mentioned previously, widespread lightning activity is not expected near terminals, but a few strikes cannot be completely ruled out. After clearing Monday morning, expect VFR through the day with some lingering high clouds at 15-20 kft. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay...MVFR cigs to return this evening around the Monterey Bay with IFR/LIFR cigs expected after midnight. Scattered showers are expected within a window of about 07-12Z before moving northward out of the area. As mentioned previously,widespread lightning activity is not expected near terminals, but a few strikes cannot be completely ruled out. Clearing around 15-16Z will give way to mostly clear skies with some lingering high clouds between 15-20 kft. && of 02:09 PM PDT Sunday...A fresh southerly swell at approximately 15 to 17 seconds has arrived and will persist through the upcoming week. Northwest winds are expected to be generally light but breezier near coastal jets. Overnight tonight into Monday morning features a slight chance for thunderstorms. These storms may contain small hail, sporadic heavier rains as well as locally erratic winds. Winds will stay light to breezy through midweek when stronger northerly winds return by the end of the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Lorber/SPM AVIATION: Behringer MARINE: McCorkle Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .Forecast Summary: Isolated, strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into evening, and again on Monday afternoon/evening. Hot on Tuesday with potentially dangerous heat indices. Better shower and storm chances on Wednesday. .Late this afternoon through tonight: Considerable boundary-layer moistening has occurred so far today beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates from the west (see the 12z North Platte sounding). The result is a moderate to strongly unstable, but capped air mass. A fairly well-defined midlevel vorticity maximum is currently moving through the ND-MN Red River Valley with a surface cold front just beginning to move into northeast NE as of 2 PM. The primary question is whether the glancing influence of the midlevel wave and low-level convergence/uplift along the front will be sufficient to initiate and sustain thunderstorms later today. The HRRR has consistently suggested that the air mass will remain capped through this evening with the NAMNest, Fv3, and NSSL-WRF all indicating isolated storm development along the southward-advancing cold front. Should storms develop, forecast soundings valid late this afternoon into early evening depict an environment supportive of organized multicell or supercell storm modes. As such, there is a conditional risk for large hail (up to ping-pong ball size) and/or wind gusts of 55-65 mph. There is some indication that a belt of midlevel warm advection/frontogenesis could yield a band of widely scattered showers and storms over northeast NE late tonight, which could linger into Monday morning. .Monday and Monday night: The above-mentioned surface front is expected to stall near the NE-KS border before lifting north through the area on Monday. That boundary in conjunction with the influence of another passing midlevel disturbance may be sufficient to initiate a few storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Again, the environment would support organized storm modes with a conditional risk for large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. .Tuesday: A shortwave trough tracking east along the north-central U.S./Canadian border will induce strengthening, southwest winds in the low levels, which in turn will advect a hot air mass into the region from the southwest/west. The deterministic GFS and GEFS remain considerably hotter than other model guidance, and that`s influencing the NBM temperature forecasts to some extent. The deterministic NBM maximum temperature forecasts for Tuesday are in approximately the 80th percentile of the NBM ensemble with highs of 101 at Omaha, 102 at Lincoln, 104 at Norfolk, and 106 to 109 degrees along the NE-SD border. It`s quite possible these numbers are too high. However, the low-level wind pattern and persistent, dry conditions argue in favor of temperatures toward the tail of the distribution. Assuming these forecast highs are close, associated heat indices of 104 to 108 are likely across much of the area with values approaching 115 in the NE-SD border region. .Tuesday night into Wednesday night: Phasing of the above-mentioned shortwave trough with a lower- latitude disturbance moving out of WY and CO will result in a corridor of midlevel height falls overspreading the mid-MO Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday. That forcing for ascent will combine with a cold front moving south through the area to yield a chance of thunderstorms from late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will be a function of cloud cover and any ongoing showers and storms. For now, we will indicate temperatures in the low to mid 90s. They could end up cooler than that. .Thursday into the weekend: Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the region late this upcoming week with continued hot and dry conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Main concerns of the TAF period are outside chances for storms around the KOMA terminal and chances for reduced ceilings/vis at KLNK. As far as storm are concerned, any cloud development along an incoming boundary has been stunted leaving dry conditions as the most likely scenario. For KLNK ceilings/vis, the incoming boundary should stall out and could have some low stratus south of the terminal, but it looks to be too far south to affect the terminal. Also of note, winds should shift back to the southeast late tomorrow morning to early afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Petersen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
930 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Best coverage of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continues across Upper Cumberland Region with isolated to scattered showers across southern locations. Blended CAMs solution showing potential of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through nighttime hours across entire mid state region as upper level troughing influences slightly deepen and an upper level disturbances at least approaches if not moves across western portions of our area by late overnight hours. Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/ direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. Current temperature trends continue to be in line with forecasted lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A weak surface boundary remains situated in the vicinity of Middle Tennessee and is helping to focus a band of moisture along which scattered showers have been propagating for most of the day. The HRRR suggests that heavier echoes will develop later in the afternoon as a shortwave swings across the mid state, but a significant portion of the region looks to remain rain-free overnight with perhaps some redevelopment toward morning. At this time, the potential for even localized flooding appears to be greatly reduced for all but the southwest corner of Middle Tennessee, which experienced significant rainfall amounts yesterday afternoon. Expect the atmosphere to dry out considerably by Monday afternoon as the aforementioned boundary slips to our south and takes the bulk of the moisture with it. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 A more summer-like air mass will settle in starting on Tuesday. This will give us afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90`s for a couple of days, along with heat indices topping out at 100+ and enough residual moisture for isolated/scattered afternoon convection each day. However, additional cloud cover beginning on Thursday will help moderate temperatures (but certainly not the humidity) into next weekend. So while we transition back to more familiar summertime temperatures, it appears that we should be able to avoid any prolonged dry spells for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Isolated to scattered showers with very isolated thunderstorms will move across the area through this taf cycle. Cigs through the forecast will bounce between VFR and MVFR. CSV will have a span of IFR cigs after midnight. Winds will be out of the SSW/SW around 5 kts through the overnight hours before increasing to near 10 kts during the morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 88 73 93 / 40 50 10 30 Clarksville 72 90 72 94 / 40 40 10 20 Crossville 69 80 68 84 / 60 70 20 40 Columbia 72 87 71 92 / 40 60 10 30 Cookeville 70 83 70 87 / 60 70 10 40 Jamestown 69 81 68 85 / 60 70 20 40 Lawrenceburg 72 85 71 91 / 60 60 10 30 Murfreesboro 72 87 71 92 / 50 60 10 30 Waverly 72 90 72 94 / 50 60 10 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
639 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Precipitation has greatly underperformed as to what was expected today as the weak boundary just to our south fizzled out as it moved north. Models now indicate scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm at best until 03z across mainly west Kentucky, with isolated convection to the west and north. The HRRR and RAP both show an uptick in activity toward midnight and overnight across mainly west Kentucky due to warm air advection and weak ripples in the upper flow. Any convection across our south will die off by midday Monday. By Monday afternoon into Monday night, models show an upper level wave moving through the Ohio valley. Chances of showers and some thunderstorms will develop in our northeastern counties Monday afternoon, then across our eastern half of counties Monday night, especially during the evening hours. With better instability than today, chances of seeing some thunderstorms will increase, and SPC has our area in a Marginal risk. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday morning. With the upper trof just to our east and moist unstable air already in place, some afternoon showers and storms will again be possible across mainly our east half of counties. High temperatures Monday will reach the lower 90s west to around 90 degrees east. With dew points in the middle 70s, heat indices will reach the 100 to 105 degree range across southeast Missouri, much of southern Illinois, and far west Kentucky. On Tuesday, with more sunshine and continued southerly flow, highs will mostly be in the lower 90s. This will push heat indices again into the 100 to 105 degree range across the entire PAH forecast area. Low temperatures tonight through Tuesday night will be in the 70 to 75 degree range. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 The models are backing off slightly on the heat and humidity later this week. Although the model 500 mb forecasts have not changed, there is now a pretty strong signal that a surface boundary will move south across the lower Ohio Valley late in the week. This boundary will likely bring enough clouds and precip to impact temps, especially Thurs and Fri. The 500 mb pattern will consist of two strong highs, one over the Plains and one near the Southeast US Atlantic coast. A weakness in the ridge will exist over the Ohio Valley, becoming more pronounced southward toward the Gulf coast. This weakness will apparently be enough to allow a weak surface front to drift south across our region. Precip chances will develop Wed night and especially Thursday, when the front should be approaching the Interstate 64 corridor. Highs Thursday are now forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s. Depending on the arrival of pre-frontal clouds and convection, heat indices Thursday should be a little lower than Wednesday. The front or its remnants should provide more clouds and precip chances on Friday. Highs are again forecast to remain below 90, though dew points will remain in the 70s. The models still indicate the 500 mb high will strengthen and relocate over the mid Mississippi Valley Saturday and Sunday. This should result in little if any rainfall, along with a buildup of heat and humidity. && .AVIATION... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Isolated drizzle is possible through the early evening hours. MVFR cigs are likely at most sites through the night with MVFR vsby possible with evening drizzle or late night fog, though cloud cover will limit fog potential. There is a slight chance of light rain late in the overnight period but low enough that it is left out for now. Scattered showers/storms develop towards the end of the TAF period near KEVV/KOWB and cannot be completely ruled out further southwest. Winds will become light overnight, increasing to 10 kts from the southwest with gusts of 15-18 kts during the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...ATL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
843 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoonal moisture across the region will fuel shower and thunderstorm development again on Monday with isolated showers possible overnight. Local flash flooding will be possible near the heavier thunderstorms again on Monday afternoon. The atmosphere will dry out a bit, and become more stable through mid week as high pressure builds aloft. This will be accompanied by slight warming, but monsoonal flow is likely to return late in the week as high pressure drifts east, and opens the door for more clouds, showers, and thunderstorms across the region. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Update: It was another active day of monsoonal thunderstorm activity across especially the San Bernardinos and high desert region. See local storm reports headlined on our webpage for details on impacts today. The activity has dissipated with just a few showers over the high desert currently. A few showers could develop over Orange County to the Inland Empire tonight. One lone shower had developed near Perris but has dissipated. HRRR shows a few more showers developing in this region overnight, but light rainfall amounts. Another active monsoon day is forecast for Monday. See details below from the previous discussion. Previous Discussion: Showers and thunderstorms were ongoing at 2 PM PDT, mainly over the mountains and high deserts, although we have had a few showers over Orange County as well. Please see the rainfall summary posted on our webpage for the latest amounts we have been able to record. Very heavy rainfall rates are possible, due to the high PW levels up to two inches or more in some eastern portions of the forecast area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for our northern mountains and high deserts through 10 PM this evening. Several more rounds of thunderstorms are possible over the mountains and deserts this afternoon, and we could even see some scattered, less intense shower/t-storm activity overnight into Monday morning, even west of the mountains. Any marine layer clouds will likely be patchy, if they develop at all tonight. For Monday, not a whole lot of change is forecast as the monsoonal flow continues, although some modest drying is indicated, and subtle differences in the synoptic features aloft could affect how widespread development is. The latest NAM12 has a weak easterly wave moving north along the San Diego County coast late in the day. The flow aloft from the S-SE could be a bit stronger as well, which could decrease the flash flood potential a bit. All things considered, there remains a significant flash flood threat on Monday. Further stabilization of the atmosphere occurs after Monday though, as the subtropical ridge strengthens along 35N. This position cuts off the moist SE flow aloft into SoCal as well, further reducing any shwr/tstm threat. By Thursday, the ridge is on the move again, drifting NE and settling over Colorado. The ridge also morphs back to a more cellular form, guiding monsoonal moisture back up over SoCal, renewing the chance for shwrs/tstms and increasing the humidity levels. There is a wider spread of the ensemble solutions regarding precipitation over SoCal with this next round, but a majority do show some precipitation centered around next weekend and into early the following week. Seasonal onshore flow is maintained as well, so a shallow marine layer will likely persist, but could be disrupted at times due to periods of convection. Daytime temperatures overall should be near, or a bit below the seasonal average. && .AVIATION... 010300Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN high clouds at/above 10,000 feet MSL will continue through Monday morning. Patchy low clouds may return to coastal areas after 10Z Monday. Most likely timing for ceilings at coastal terminals is 11-15Z. Scatter out expected 15- 17Z. Very slight chances for SHRA and TSRA can be anticipated again Monday afternoon, with a 20% chance of occurrence over the eastern valleys and portions of the Inland Empire. Minimal precipitation chances along/near the coast. Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN high clouds at/above 10,000 feet MSL through Monday morning. Scattered TSRA forming again over the mountain and desert foothills generally after 18z Monday with most activity diminishing by 03z Tue. Low confidence in any TSRA impacting the terminals with PSP having the highest odds, albeit at only a 20-30% chance. Downpours reducing VIS as well as gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any TSRA. && .MARINE... An increasing southerly swell, up to 5 feet, from 180-200 degrees and with a period of 12-14 seconds, is expected tonight through Wednesday due to the remnants of Hurricane Frank. && .BEACHES... Hurricane Frank will generate hazardous surf conditions, including strong rip currents, tonight through Wednesday. The 6 foot south swell from 180-200 degrees at a period of 12-14 seconds will generate surf of 4-7 feet, mainly along south-facing beaches. Highest surf will be in northern Orange County. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is requested for this afternoon, and may be needed again on Monday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria (Update)/10 (Previous Discussion) AVIATION/MARINE...Adams