Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
818 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Minor changes were made to the forecast. Fog is still expected to develop overnight with the potential for some dense fog to develop south of Interstate 70. A Dense Fog Advisory was considered but opted to hold off due to uncertainty of the coverage of dense fog. HRRR, GLAMP and RAP all have been fairly consistent with fog developing over the SW portion of the area, but have been inconsistent with the magnitude of the fog. If dense fog were to occur it appears that Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wallace counties would have the relative best chances to observe it. Overnight lows were bumped up a few degrees as the dew points are expected to be higher than previously forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 For tonight...low clouds have persisted well into the afternoon across south central portions of the forecast area. As a result, dew point depressions will be quite low tonight and anticipate fog to begin to develop towards 06z and continue through Sunday morning in those areas. Upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners this period with its influence extending across the southern Rockies and adjacent plains. Main impact will be warming temperatures, with highs tomorrow and Monday returning to the 90s, while triple digits will return on Tuesday. Precipitation chances will be much lower compared to last week, but still expect to see a few afternoon and evening storms developing each day. Lee trough across northeast Colorado will be the focusing mechanism for convective development, with perhaps some help with weak disturbances rotating around the ridge. Inverted-v type forecast soundings with low CAPE/high DCAPE suggest at least some risk for gusty winds to accompany any storm that develops. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Both the latest GFS and ECMWF show a broad upper ridge at 500mb over the Rockies into the Plains region on Wednesday, with a slow transition eastward. The GFS/ECMWF do differ some on the placement of the ridge by the first half of next weekend. The ECMWF a bit more progressive pushing more into the Mississippi River Valley and east, while the GFS keeps a setup from the Plains region into the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, there will be a couple lee-side troughs that set up over the Front Range and push slowly eastward into the Plains, aided by weak shortwaves traversing the north side of the upper ridge. This will be similar to what occurred during our last bout of hot weather, isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. 850mb temps are ranging from +29c to +35c during the extended period, with warmest range occurring on Friday. This will also be the best chance for downslope winds from the south-southwest to aid in daytime heating. With the large dome of high pressure at 500mb, will be looking at similar conditions seen during the last hot stretch where surface to 850/700mb will be very dry, with rh readings potentially dropping into the teens during the afternoon/evening hours. This will of course depend on remnant clouds from any precip. Precipitation/storms expected to be elevated as latest GFS showing inverted-v soundings and DCape values over 1000j/kg. This combined with PW values from 1.00-1.50" will allow for wx threats to include gusty winds as storms collapse and locally heavy rainfall. Evening/ overnight hours could also be prone again to heat bursts if these collapse at the right time. For temps, there will be an west to east gradient in daytime highs, with eastern locales set up to be the warmest areas. Overall highs will range in the 90s. 100s will creep into areas mainly along/east of Highway 25. Current numbers are below any potential records at this time. With low humidity expected, heat indices are expected to range at or below expected highs. Lows will range from the mid 60s west to the lower and mid 70s east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 500 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Ceilings continue to lift at KGLD with MVFR expected to continue with perhaps some instances of ceilings officially being VFR. Overnight ceilings are expected to again fall to IFR around 06Z; will watch for earlier instances as what happened last night. I don`t expect that occur as temperatures have warmed around 5-8 degrees warmer today so think dew point depressions will take a bit longer to fall. Patchy to areas of fog will develop along and south of Interstate 70 with KGLD expected to meet LIFR criteria due to ceilings and perhaps visibility around sunrise. Fog and ceilings will then lift mid morning with VFR again returning. KMCK may see a few hours near sunrise of MVFR ceilings, currently not expecting fog to be much of an issue as the better moisture resides south and dewpoint depressions are larger. As a result can`t completely rule out brief isolated instances of MVFR visibilities. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1019 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front aligned from west to east across our region will be the focus for abundant moisture and numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This front will begin to move north on Sunday as a warm front. The front should dissipate by Tuesday, with high pressure over the western Atlantic taking control of our weather for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1020 pm EDT: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue past midnight and confirms that the CAMs were (mainly the HRRR) wrong for clearing up precipitation too soon. Updated PoPs to match radar trends. Latest mesoscale analysis have ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 2.00-2.50" PWAT values, with observed backing low-level winds, which will help anchor storms to train. Also, the RAP analysis indicates a gradual decrease in MBE velocities, so expect an uptick in the flash flood threat through the early overnight hours as well. Hydro issues could pose a problem with any training of cells given the 2+ inch PWAT air, but model signals are mixed on any southerly flow yielding anchoring near the high terrain. If that happens, the peak hydro threat could be late this evening, but the convection- allowing models have limited coverage after midnight. Confidence thus remains too low to post any Flash Flood Watches. Expect another very mild night with mins a couple of categories above normal. Patchy fog will develop in places where clouds scatter. The weak boundary stalled across the region will likely drift back northward to the northern tier of the area through Sunday. Precipitable water values will remain over 2 inches. It is conceivable that steering flow will be a bit better on Sunday, but low MBE velocities will likely still contribute to some measure of backbuilding and training of cells. An elevated hydro threat will persist, while the severe threat will remain rather minimal. Clouds should keep temperatures below climate normals Sunday afternoon. Again, we expect to post no Flood Watches this afternoon until we see how much rain falls through this evening and how antecedent conditions shape up for tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: As a 500mb trough sharpens over the Great Lakes on Monday, a series of vort lobes will ripple across the Carolinas on its periphery, embedded in otherwise unamplified flow aloft. Bermuda High will remain in place in the western Atlantic, allowing south/southwest flow to continue to drive a robust moisture flux across most of the forecast area, as a quasi-stationary front somewhere near the NC-VA border retreats ever-so-slightly northward in response to the aforementioned upper-level forcing. By Tuesday, as the sharpening trough over the Midwest begins to exert its influence on the Carolinas, this boundary will retreat farther north, with some guidance depicting weak cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. Generic thunder risk is expected both afternoons. Deterministic guidance depicts in the neighborhood of 1000-1400 J/kg and negligible deep-layer shear across much of the forecast area (notwithstanding anomalously low instability across the Upstate in the latest GFS), while SREF plumes and the GEM`s spread parameter are indicative of fairly good confidence on these values. Better conditions are forecast for Tuesday as improving low-level moisture allows instability and expected convective coverage to soar, but with markedly lower confidence owing to uncertainty over the timing of best forcing aloft and the resultant evolution of the surface boundary through the day. Of perhaps greater concern is the heavy rainfall threat Monday. The overarching setup is almost a classic Maddox heavy rain pattern, with synoptically-driven southerly WAA allowing moisture to pool on the warm side of the stationary front at the NC-VA border. Enough instability should be present to drive scattered convection, and these storms will develop in a deeply-moist environment, with precipitable water values outside the mountains crawling into the 1.8-2.1" range, a deep warm cloud depth permitting efficience rain production, and weak steering flow allowing for slow-moving storms. So, while not all places will receive rain, those that do can expect to receive quite a bit. By Tuesday, the risk will diminish as the boundary lifts north and steering flow improves with the sharpening trough aloft. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Not much change to the extended forecast this afternoon. Normal summertime pattern resumes for the remainder of the period. The passage of a trough axis aloft late Tuesday will result in a measure of drying at the midlevels, allowing precipitable water to fall and heavy rain/flood risk along with it. Surface-based instability will climb back to a seasonable ~1500 J/kg each afternoon, fueling typical diurnal thunderstorm coverage through the evening hours. Deterministic guidance is still hemming and hawing on the arrival of a shortwave on Friday - the feature is present in the latest CMC as well as a handful of GEFS members, yet absent in most other guidance. In any case, general thunder risk looks warranted through lateweek and into the weekend, with locally heavy rain but no elevated severe or flash flood risk apparent at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread showers and thunderstorms have allowed for MVFR/IFR conditions to prevail in areas that received appreciable rainfall. Fairly light winds will turn around the dial through the period, with mainly northerly flow early becoming more southerly overnight into Sunday. Brief and variable gusts will be possible near any thunderstorms. Abundant low-level moisture should lead to developing MVFR then IFR ceilings before daybreak Sunday, with LIFR cigs quite possible at KAVL and KHKY. Showers could persist through the night, especially from KAVL to KHKY, but with less intensity. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will return mid to late Sunday morning through the afternoon as a frontal boundary lifts north of the area. Outlook: Numerous, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week. A more typical summertime pattern will return by mid-week. Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in the mtn valleys and wherever appreciable rain has fallen the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CAC/HG SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...CAC/HG
Forecast Discussion:
- Hot weather expected for most of next week.
- Dry conditions also expected to persist. Today is likely to be the last comfortable afternoon for the next 7 days. Temperatures today will be near the climatic average with dew point temperatures below 60 degrees. This will change greatly tomorrow. Today and Tomorrow: Midlevel heights will build over the area with a strengthening ridge over the western CONUS. Strong warm air advection will allow for temperatures to greatly increase tomorrow ranging from 86 in southwest Iowa up to 101 along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Dew point temperatures are forecast to increase 10 to 15 degrees over the next 24 hours and will peak near 70 degrees. A passing weak shortwave and attendant cold front will provide a marginal risk for severe weather. While a cold front will move into the area, it won`t feel much like one. Temperatures will rise so greatly at the lowest levels, it`ll likely only be noticed if it initiates storms. Storm initiation is most likely along a ridge of theta-e that extends from southern Nebraska into Minnesota between 3 and 9 PM. MLCAPE values are forecast near 2000 J/kg. Low level lapse rates will be adequate near 7.5C/km and 0-3 km shear will be in the 20 to 25 kt range. The RAP projects a peak DCAPE value near 2000 J/kg combined with a fairly dry sounding in the lower levels. A dry sounding and high DCAPE values indicate that damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard. Hail up to 1 inch is also possible. Monday through Friday: This period is going to be hot. NAEFS analysis shows temperatures at the 850 hPa, 750 hPa, and 500 hPa to be at the maximum of climatology on Tuesday and Wednesday. Other days this week aren`t quite that extreme, but still reach at least the 97.5 percentile. To illustrate the confidence in the heat, I`m going to list the maximum temperature forecast for Omaha for this period from the NBM 25th percentile: 93, 96, 96, 93, 94. Temperatures those days should reach at least those values. The current forecast calls for multiple 100 degree days in Omaha (and across the forecast area). If the forecast holds, multiple heat products will likely be needed. Tuesday and Wednesday are of particular concern as not only will afternoon temperatures approach 100, but the overnight low may not drop below 80 in Omaha metro area. The best chance for rain in this period is Wednesday as a weak cool front is expected to move into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Main concern of the TAF period is the possibility of MVFR to IFR ceiling and visibility restrictions at KOMA from 12 to 14z tomorrow morning, with KLNK and KOFK having much lower chances of seeing restrictions. Surface moisture should move into the NE/IA border while much higher lows tomorrow morning will work against the incoming moisture. MVFR conditions look like the best with the current confidence, though areas in south of KOMA and east of KLNK could see lower ceilings/vis. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fajman AVIATION...Petersen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
942 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Most precipitation has exited mid state region with some light isolated showers noted presently east. As surface front to our south moves northward tonight and an upper level disturbance approaches and possibly starts moving across mid state region, chances of showers and thunderstorms will once again return to our area. Went with a blended CAMs solution through remainder of night time hours with a general trend of increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from the southwest as overnight hours progress. Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly late evening gridded values. Current temperature trends continue to generally be in line with forecasted lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Morning sounding from OHX shows very little instability in place, even when accounting for the forecast max temp this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak and the wind profile from 850 mb upward is unidirectional, but it`s what one would expect being on the north side of a surface boundary such as we are. Ongoing activity over West Tennessee is having a difficult time propagating eastward. The HRRR does develop scattered activity across Middle Tennessee from mid afternoon through the early evening, but storms will have a better chance over southern Middle Tennessee, where there actually is some instability. The aforementioned surface boundary will lift northward overnight, and this will bring heavier, more widespread rain to Middle Tennessee mainly during the day Sunday, then lasting through Sunday night and into Monday before the boundary drifts southward again and an upper trough swings through and dries us out somewhat. QPF values are considerable; storm total values from 12Z Sunday until 18Z Monday range from 1 to 3 inches across the mid state. So at least localized flooding is possible with the heavy rain that`s expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Expect the atmosphere to begin drying out by Monday afternoon, but we won`t dry out completely. There will be enough lingering moisture to enable the atmosphere to produce isolated to scattered convection during peak heating hours from Tuesday onward as a warmer-than-normal air mass builds back into Middle Tennessee. The good news is that the potential for severe storms throughout the upcoming 7-days remains very low. The primary threats are the flooding potential later this weekend, then heat indices of 100 to 105+ starting on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 A band of showers will impact CSV through the next few hours with MVFR cigs/vsbys at times while CKV/BNA/MQY stay VFR through this evening. Overnight all sites will drop to MVFR as another wave of showers develops. Daytime Sunday will feature numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms. Rainfall will be heavy at times. Mainly MVFR cigs/vsbys expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 85 73 89 / 40 80 70 60 Clarksville 69 83 72 90 / 60 80 70 50 Crossville 68 80 68 81 / 40 80 80 80 Columbia 71 86 72 89 / 50 90 60 60 Cookeville 70 82 71 84 / 40 90 80 70 Jamestown 68 80 68 82 / 40 80 80 80 Lawrenceburg 71 85 72 87 / 40 80 60 60 Murfreesboro 71 85 72 88 / 40 80 70 70 Waverly 71 85 71 90 / 50 80 70 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Updated discussion for 00z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Precipitation has hung on better than expected across southern portions of the PAH forecast area this afternoon. This has held temperatures down by several degrees in these areas. The HRRR shows these showers fizzling out by 00z, while the RAP keeps showers across west Kentucky into the early evening. Went with showers dying off between 00z-02z. Models show a frontal boundary to our south lifting north tonight into Sunday morning as an upper level trof moves over the Mississippi valley by 12z Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the entire PAH forecast area by late tonight and continuing through midday Sunday. The best chances and highest QPF will be focused across our southern counties through this time period. The front will lift north of our region late Sunday into Sunday night as the upper trof moves slowly off to our east, and we will see our highest chances and QPF now becoming oriented across our southeastern portion of counties through Monday morning. Forecast QPF through Monday morning has trended downward a little, ranging from less than a quarter of an inch near Interstate 64 in southern Illinois, to an inch and a quarter to an inch and three quarters in portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. Isolated higher amounts will be possible, so localized flooding is not out of the question, but widespread issues are not expected at this point. How quickly the front actually lifts north will affect QPF amounts, so we will see how models continue to handle it. A secondary surface boundary will sink southward Sunday night, but will remain north of the PAH fa through Monday night. We will see a lull in convection Monday afternoon. However, with this boundary to our north, the upper trof just to our east and a very soupy air mass in place over our region, chances of showers and thunderstorms will return to our north/northeast counties Monday evening, and to all but our far west counties late Monday night. The Monday night QPF will not be substantial. High temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow, with lows tonight, Sunday night, and Monday night near to a little above normal. On Monday, with the afternoon expected to be mostly convection free, sunshine will return and high temperatures will reach around 90 degrees. With dew points in the middle to upper 70s, heat indices around 100 degrees will be possible across northern and western portions of our region. And the heat begins its return. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 A pattern change is still expected to occur early next week, when an expansive upper-level ridge will develop over much of the nation. This will flip the switch back to hot and dry conditions, with heat indices climbing above 100 each day. On Tuesday, the Plains 500 mb ridge will begin building east. Rain chances will be lower than previous days, mainly in the slight chance category. On Wednesday through Friday, a narrow 500 mb ridge axis will extend from the Plains high east across our region to the Bermuda high. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon between the two 500 mb high centers. However, most places are not expected to receive much rainfall. The gfs and ecmwf ensemble means indicate the 500 mb high will strengthen as it reforms over the mid Mississippi Valley or central Plains by Saturday. This should reduce or eliminate the daily thunderstorm chances Saturday. High temperatures each day will range from around 90 in the EVV tri- state area to the mid 90s in the Ozark foothills. Oppressive dew points in the mid to upper 70s will be persistent. Expect a stretch of at least four or five consecutive days with peak heat indices above 100. Messaging of the heat wave will continue. && .AVIATION... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 VFR conditions will persist through 08z before MVFR cigs/vis spread north with scattered shra/tsra. The greatest risk for MVFR conditions will be across terminals KCGI and KPAH through 12z while other terminals will not see MVFR cigs until 17-18z. .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...DW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
806 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections .SYNOPSIS...Prolonged heatwave will continue across inland areas of the Pacific Northwest through the weekend, while the coast remains considerably cooler and experience periodic clouds and fog. Thunderstorms remain possible over the central Cascades each day for the next few days, especially Sunday into Monday. Temperatures turn more seasonable next week, especially Tuesday onward. && .Discussion...EVENING UPDATE: At 03Z GOES-17 water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low centered near 42N 132W. Meanwhile, the ever-persistent strong upper level ridge axis remained centered from the northern Sierras to the Washington coast. Infra-red imagery revealed convective activity over much of southwest and south-central Oregon, with some of this action spreading north along the Lane County Cascade crest and then veering to the northeast into north-central Oregon. The main convective action late this afternoon through early evening was focused over the southwest Oregon higher terrain to near McKenzie Pass and toward north-central Oregon. It appears low-level convergence with the thermally-induced surface trough and on the west-side of a 700 mb theta-e ridge helped to support the convective activity. Water vapor imagery did not show an obvious short-wave disturbance to provide enhanced upper level dynamics. Favorable contributors, besides the above-mentioned factors, also included moist, southerly mid and upper level flow and possibly a little upper-level diffluence focused over the south and central Cascades. The 12Z convective-allowing models (CAMS) suggest convection near the Lane County Cascades will dissipate through the evening. Weishaar REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: Signs that the prolonged heatwave will continue across the area into Monday have been solidified today after a review of latest model guidance. Upper ridging stretching from Nevada into northwestern Oregon continues today, while a closed upper low cut off from the main jet flow sites offshore about 400 miles off the southern Oregon coast. At the surface, a thermally induced low pressure east of the Cascades and high pressure over the North Pacific continues onshore flow, resulting coastal areas being under marine stratus and fog during most of the day and all night. Maximum temperatures today will be topping off right around what we saw last Tuesday, our hottest day of the week. Interesting of note, small little perturbations rotating north in between the offshore low and inland ridge has produced and sustained isolated showers streaming off the central OR coast and into the northern Willamette valley. Looking at water vapor imagery reveals that this will likely continue this afternoon, in addition to the convection expecting and already occurring over the Lane County Cascades. Besides this evening`s convection over Lane County, no models have convection over the area tonight. However, seeing some elevated thunderstorms offshore of southern OR currently does lower confidence in a clear forecast tonight. Will have to watch trends this evening. Tonight`s lows will be some of the warmest we have seen, especially after today`s high temperatures and some convective debris clouds to possibly move over the area. On Sunday, latest trends of both deterministic and ensemble guidance holds the upper low just off the coast slightly longer, resulting in less of a cooldown expected for Sunday. Cross sections and forecast soundings actually show little change for Sunday. What it does have is slightly more moisture at 500-600 mb, likely resulting in what we`re seeing out there today in terms of isolated clouds and high based showers. One wild card we are having to consider now however, is the smoke being produced off the McKinney fire that started yesterday in northern CA. This may end up having an effect on temperatures, cooling high temps and warming low temps, depending on the thickness. Currently the HRRR Smoke model keeps the smoke aloft (rather than at the surface), with not too much concentration. The highest chance for it to impact temperatures will likely remain in Lane County and south, but chances remain low. Increased cloud cover slightly, but added no PoPs. Sunday night, more mid-level moisture along with cooling at lower levels are seen in soundings and cross sections, however guidance continues to go warmer than previous runs with Monday`s temperatures. It appears that what cooling we do receive Monday is mostly due to cloudy conditions more than any sort of cool front/marine push. Have went with the NBM guidance which ended up warming the previous forecast by 6-8 degrees. Confidence in Tuesday`s forecast is quite low, as the latest runs of all the guidance now retrogrades the cutoff low to the southwest, instead of bringing the low onshore like they had previously. Now, they are bringing an upper low from southcentral AK down over BC and swinging that trough over the PacNW Thursday. Quite a chance from previous runs. WPC cluster analysis shows all 4 clusters with a trough over the region Thursday, with the upper ridge building back in again from the west with different timing through Saturday. Kept the NBM guidance with no confidence any any one solution really in what happens in the mid-late week time frame. /Kriederman && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs: Strong ridging aloft continues resulting VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for inland locations, which are expected to persist through at least 18Z Sunday. Weaker onshore flow is expected over the next 24 hours which is why areas north of KTMK have yet to see IFR/LIFR conditions. However, these locations within the next few hours. Elsewhere along the coast, IFR/LIFR conditions have already been established. Overall, coastal terminals will have IFR/LIFR conditions through least 18Z Sunday with conditions likely improving afterwards for areas along the coast. Smoke from fire activity in northern California is moving northward, and may impact slant range vsbys during the daytime hours, especially KSLE southward. For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies, with light northerly winds expected through at least 18Z Sunday. /42 && .MARINE...The weather will generally be quiet over the coastal waters for the next few days, with a couple of exceptions. Pressure gradients are expected to tighten up this evening, leading to marginal SCA gusts of 20-25 kt in our outermost northern coastal waters. Localized areas of wind gusts up to this speed are possible in other areas but they should be brief. These stronger winds will produce a fresh swell around 5-6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds spreading across the waters late in the weekend into early next week. Winds will decrease and remain below Small Craft criteria for the first half of next week. Dense fog was an issue this morning on the coastal waters, reducing visibilities to less than one mile at times. This was handled well by a Dense Fog Advisory that expired at 11 AM. Buoy webcams and coastal observations seem to indicate some improvement in visibility within the stratus this afternoon, so confidence was not quite high enough that fog would be dense enough to warrant another Dense Fog Advisory tonight/Sunday morning. Future shifts will monitor and issue as needed. Weagle For information about upcoming marine zone changes, go online to: && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern Oregon Cascades-South Willamette Valley. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Upper Hood River Valley-Western Columbia River Gorge. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for Willamette National Forest. WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Cascades-Willapa Hills. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Western Columbia River Gorge. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 nm. && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1021 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Created new 03-06Z pop/wx grid for leftovers and lower some Lows. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Rain cooled air sure does make for a nice mid summer`s evening with lower to middle 70s. Our winds are calm or light E/SE for most around 5mph. We still have some lower 80s in parts of our TX counties as well as a few showers lingering along I-20. Another rubble of thunder for the SHV/BO metro is possible as light rain dissipates. Also in NE LA between Farmerville and Bastrop, elevated thunder is trying to tapper off as convection moves eastward. Not expecting anything further after midnight, and maybe by 11pm. Last day of a month still has a shot at some more July total looking at HRRR and new 00Z Nam. Let`s those who missed out can see something, albeit less intense with whatever coverage the heat/humidity and left over boundaries can do for us. The stationary front over S AR with be lifting back N with breezy SW flow. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Low-level southerly flow will return to the region by Monday resulting in an increase in humidity and moisture levels once again. An upper-level ridge will slowly migrate eastward towards the Plains from the Rockies but will be considerably weaker than previous weeks. However, there will be a bit of a weak axis of the ridge trailing eastward across the region and connecting with another ridge over the Florida Panhandle. This should provide enough subsidence to keep most of the forecast area dry. Through Wednesday, convection will be limited to afternoon sea breeze activity affecting portions of Western and Central Louisiana from Lower Toledo Bend eastward. With mostly dry weather and subsidence returning, daytime high temperatures should climb generally a degree or two each day. Areas experiencing Severe to Extreme Drought conditions, such as Southeast Oklahoma, portions of Southwest Arkansas, and much of East Texas, should begin to see high temperatures near or just over 100 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday. Combined with the humidity, peak heat index values will also likely climb above 105 degrees again across portions of the forecast area. During the latter half of the work week, the center of the western upper ridge will move into the Central Plains and strengthen. Medium range models are in good agreement that a weak shortwave trough will rotate southwest and west across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into East Texas on the southern periphery of the ridge. This should result in some increased coverage of diurnally-driven thunderstorms during the afternoon hours southeast of a line from Lufkin, to Shreveport, to El Dorado. The rain and cloud cover should also result in some slightly cooler daytime high temperatures. Unfortunately, convection will likely remained confined to southeast half of the forecast area, and locations farther to the northwest under Severe-Extreme Drought conditions will probably not receive much relief. /CN/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022 For the ArkLaTex terminals TS at KELD/getting hit again. At KLFK, but improving already and in VCTY of KSHV. Still gusts of 20-30KT with boundary interaction developing new storms for about another hour until sundown. Lots of debris overnight with winds aloft trying to transition from E to W with this nearby front and it`s convection. This front will lift out of S AR overnight and head back N during Sunday. L/V winds overnight w/ SKC"ing" and then PC & hot w/ SW10-20KT out of TX, and less speed for KELD/KMLU. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 97 77 95 / 40 10 0 10 MLU 75 96 75 95 / 30 20 0 20 DEQ 73 93 73 96 / 30 20 0 10 TXK 74 95 77 96 / 40 20 0 0 ELD 70 91 74 93 / 40 20 0 10 TYR 78 100 77 98 / 20 10 0 0 GGG 76 98 76 97 / 30 10 0 10 LFK 77 99 75 97 / 20 10 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...24