Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/31/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
818 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Minor changes were made to the forecast. Fog is still expected to
develop overnight with the potential for some dense fog to develop
south of Interstate 70. A Dense Fog Advisory was considered but
opted to hold off due to uncertainty of the coverage of dense fog.
HRRR, GLAMP and RAP all have been fairly consistent with fog
developing over the SW portion of the area, but have been
inconsistent with the magnitude of the fog. If dense fog were to
occur it appears that Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wallace counties
would have the relative best chances to observe it. Overnight lows
were bumped up a few degrees as the dew points are expected to be
higher than previously forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
For tonight...low clouds have persisted well into the afternoon
across south central portions of the forecast area. As a result,
dew point depressions will be quite low tonight and anticipate fog
to begin to develop towards 06z and continue through Sunday
morning in those areas.
Upper ridge will be centered near the Four Corners this period
with its influence extending across the southern Rockies and
adjacent plains. Main impact will be warming temperatures, with
highs tomorrow and Monday returning to the 90s, while triple
digits will return on Tuesday. Precipitation chances will be much
lower compared to last week, but still expect to see a few
afternoon and evening storms developing each day. Lee trough
across northeast Colorado will be the focusing mechanism for
convective development, with perhaps some help with weak
disturbances rotating around the ridge. Inverted-v type forecast
soundings with low CAPE/high DCAPE suggest at least some risk for
gusty winds to accompany any storm that develops.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Both the latest GFS and ECMWF show a broad upper ridge at 500mb over
the Rockies into the Plains region on Wednesday, with a slow
transition eastward. The GFS/ECMWF do differ some on the placement
of the ridge by the first half of next weekend. The ECMWF a bit more
progressive pushing more into the Mississippi River Valley and east,
while the GFS keeps a setup from the Plains region into the
Mississippi River Valley.
At the surface, there will be a couple lee-side troughs that set up
over the Front Range and push slowly eastward into the Plains, aided
by weak shortwaves traversing the north side of the upper ridge.
This will be similar to what occurred during our last bout of hot
weather, isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms during the
late afternoon and evening hours.
850mb temps are ranging from +29c to +35c during the extended
period, with warmest range occurring on Friday. This will also be
the best chance for downslope winds from the south-southwest to aid
in daytime heating. With the large dome of high pressure at 500mb,
will be looking at similar conditions seen during the last hot
stretch where surface to 850/700mb will be very dry, with rh
readings potentially dropping into the teens during the
afternoon/evening hours. This will of course depend on remnant
clouds from any precip.
Precipitation/storms expected to be elevated as latest GFS showing
inverted-v soundings and DCape values over 1000j/kg. This combined
with PW values from 1.00-1.50" will allow for wx threats to include
gusty winds as storms collapse and locally heavy rainfall. Evening/
overnight hours could also be prone again to heat bursts if these
collapse at the right time.
For temps, there will be an west to east gradient in daytime highs,
with eastern locales set up to be the warmest areas. Overall highs
will range in the 90s. 100s will creep into areas mainly along/east
of Highway 25. Current numbers are below any potential records at
this time. With low humidity expected, heat indices are expected to
range at or below expected highs. Lows will range from the mid 60s
west to the lower and mid 70s east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Ceilings continue to lift at KGLD with MVFR expected to continue
with perhaps some instances of ceilings officially being VFR.
Overnight ceilings are expected to again fall to IFR around 06Z;
will watch for earlier instances as what happened last night. I
don`t expect that occur as temperatures have warmed around 5-8
degrees warmer today so think dew point depressions will take a
bit longer to fall. Patchy to areas of fog will develop along and
south of Interstate 70 with KGLD expected to meet LIFR criteria
due to ceilings and perhaps visibility around sunrise. Fog and
ceilings will then lift mid morning with VFR again returning.
KMCK may see a few hours near sunrise of MVFR ceilings, currently
not expecting fog to be much of an issue as the better moisture
resides south and dewpoint depressions are larger. As a result
can`t completely rule out brief isolated instances of MVFR
visibilities.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1019 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front aligned from west to east across our region will
be the focus for abundant moisture and numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This front will
begin to move north on Sunday as a warm front. The front should
dissipate by Tuesday, with high pressure over the western Atlantic
taking control of our weather for the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1020 pm EDT: Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
past midnight and confirms that the CAMs were (mainly the HRRR)
wrong for clearing up precipitation too soon. Updated PoPs to match
radar trends. Latest mesoscale analysis have ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and 2.00-2.50" PWAT values, with observed backing low-level winds,
which will help anchor storms to train. Also, the RAP analysis
indicates a gradual decrease in MBE velocities, so expect an uptick
in the flash flood threat through the early overnight hours as well.
Hydro issues could pose a problem with any training of cells given
the 2+ inch PWAT air, but model signals are mixed on any southerly
flow yielding anchoring near the high terrain. If that happens, the
peak hydro threat could be late this evening, but the convection-
allowing models have limited coverage after midnight. Confidence
thus remains too low to post any Flash Flood Watches. Expect another
very mild night with mins a couple of categories above normal.
Patchy fog will develop in places where clouds scatter.
The weak boundary stalled across the region will likely drift back
northward to the northern tier of the area through Sunday.
Precipitable water values will remain over 2 inches. It is
conceivable that steering flow will be a bit better on Sunday, but
low MBE velocities will likely still contribute to some measure of
backbuilding and training of cells. An elevated hydro threat will
persist, while the severe threat will remain rather minimal. Clouds
should keep temperatures below climate normals Sunday afternoon.
Again, we expect to post no Flood Watches this afternoon until we
see how much rain falls through this evening and how antecedent
conditions shape up for tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: As a 500mb trough sharpens over the
Great Lakes on Monday, a series of vort lobes will ripple across
the Carolinas on its periphery, embedded in otherwise unamplified
flow aloft. Bermuda High will remain in place in the western
Atlantic, allowing south/southwest flow to continue to drive
a robust moisture flux across most of the forecast area, as a
quasi-stationary front somewhere near the NC-VA border retreats
ever-so-slightly northward in response to the aforementioned
upper-level forcing. By Tuesday, as the sharpening trough over
the Midwest begins to exert its influence on the Carolinas, this
boundary will retreat farther north, with some guidance depicting
weak cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday.
Generic thunder risk is expected both afternoons. Deterministic
guidance depicts in the neighborhood of 1000-1400 J/kg and
negligible deep-layer shear across much of the forecast area
(notwithstanding anomalously low instability across the Upstate in
the latest GFS), while SREF plumes and the GEM`s spread parameter
are indicative of fairly good confidence on these values. Better
conditions are forecast for Tuesday as improving low-level moisture
allows instability and expected convective coverage to soar,
but with markedly lower confidence owing to uncertainty over the
timing of best forcing aloft and the resultant evolution of the
surface boundary through the day.
Of perhaps greater concern is the heavy rainfall threat Monday.
The overarching setup is almost a classic Maddox heavy rain pattern,
with synoptically-driven southerly WAA allowing moisture to pool on
the warm side of the stationary front at the NC-VA border. Enough
instability should be present to drive scattered convection,
and these storms will develop in a deeply-moist environment,
with precipitable water values outside the mountains crawling
into the 1.8-2.1" range, a deep warm cloud depth permitting
efficience rain production, and weak steering flow allowing for
slow-moving storms. So, while not all places will receive rain,
those that do can expect to receive quite a bit. By Tuesday,
the risk will diminish as the boundary lifts north and steering
flow improves with the sharpening trough aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Not much change to the extended
forecast this afternoon. Normal summertime pattern resumes for
the remainder of the period. The passage of a trough axis aloft
late Tuesday will result in a measure of drying at the midlevels,
allowing precipitable water to fall and heavy rain/flood risk along
with it. Surface-based instability will climb back to a seasonable
~1500 J/kg each afternoon, fueling typical diurnal thunderstorm
coverage through the evening hours. Deterministic guidance is
still hemming and hawing on the arrival of a shortwave on Friday -
the feature is present in the latest CMC as well as a handful of
GEFS members, yet absent in most other guidance. In any case,
general thunder risk looks warranted through lateweek and into the
weekend, with locally heavy rain but no elevated severe or flash
flood risk apparent at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread showers and thunderstorms have
allowed for MVFR/IFR conditions to prevail in areas that received
appreciable rainfall. Fairly light winds will turn around the dial
through the period, with mainly northerly flow early becoming more
southerly overnight into Sunday. Brief and variable gusts will be
possible near any thunderstorms. Abundant low-level moisture should
lead to developing MVFR then IFR ceilings before daybreak Sunday,
with LIFR cigs quite possible at KAVL and KHKY. Showers could
persist through the night, especially from KAVL to KHKY, but with
less intensity. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will return mid to
late Sunday morning through the afternoon as a frontal boundary
lifts north of the area.
Outlook: Numerous, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue
through early next week. A more typical summertime pattern will
return by mid-week. Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in
the mtn valleys and wherever appreciable rain has fallen the
previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...CAC/HG
Forecast Discussion:
- Hot weather expected for most of next week.
- Dry conditions also expected to persist.
Today is likely to be the last comfortable afternoon for the next
7 days. Temperatures today will be near the climatic average with
dew point temperatures below 60 degrees. This will change greatly
tomorrow.
Today and Tomorrow:
Midlevel heights will build over the area with a strengthening
ridge over the western CONUS. Strong warm air advection will allow
for temperatures to greatly increase tomorrow ranging from 86 in
southwest Iowa up to 101 along the Nebraska/South Dakota border.
Dew point temperatures are forecast to increase 10 to 15 degrees
over the next 24 hours and will peak near 70 degrees. A passing
weak shortwave and attendant cold front will provide a marginal
risk for severe weather. While a cold front will move into the
area, it won`t feel much like one. Temperatures will rise so
greatly at the lowest levels, it`ll likely only be noticed if it
initiates storms.
Storm initiation is most likely along a ridge of theta-e that
extends from southern Nebraska into Minnesota between 3 and 9 PM.
MLCAPE values are forecast near 2000 J/kg. Low level lapse rates
will be adequate near 7.5C/km and 0-3 km shear will be in the 20
to 25 kt range. The RAP projects a peak DCAPE value near 2000 J/kg
combined with a fairly dry sounding in the lower levels. A dry
sounding and high DCAPE values indicate that damaging wind gusts
are the most likely hazard. Hail up to 1 inch is also possible.
Monday through Friday:
This period is going to be hot. NAEFS analysis shows temperatures
at the 850 hPa, 750 hPa, and 500 hPa to be at the maximum of
climatology on Tuesday and Wednesday. Other days this week aren`t
quite that extreme, but still reach at least the 97.5 percentile.
To illustrate the confidence in the heat, I`m going to list the
maximum temperature forecast for Omaha for this period from the
NBM 25th percentile: 93, 96, 96, 93, 94. Temperatures those days
should reach at least those values. The current forecast calls for
multiple 100 degree days in Omaha (and across the forecast area).
If the forecast holds, multiple heat products will likely be
needed. Tuesday and Wednesday are of particular concern as not
only will afternoon temperatures approach 100, but the overnight
low may not drop below 80 in Omaha metro area.
The best chance for rain in this period is Wednesday as a weak
cool front is expected to move into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Main concern of the TAF period is the possibility of MVFR to IFR
ceiling and visibility restrictions at KOMA from 12 to 14z
tomorrow morning, with KLNK and KOFK having much lower chances of
seeing restrictions. Surface moisture should move into the NE/IA
border while much higher lows tomorrow morning will work against
the incoming moisture. MVFR conditions look like the best with the
current confidence, though areas in south of KOMA and east of
KLNK could see lower ceilings/vis.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fajman
AVIATION...Petersen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
942 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Most precipitation has exited mid state region with some light
isolated showers noted presently east. As surface front to our
south moves northward tonight and an upper level disturbance
approaches and possibly starts moving across mid state region,
chances of showers and thunderstorms will once again return to our
area. Went with a blended CAMs solution through remainder of
night time hours with a general trend of increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms from the southwest as overnight hours
progress. Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind
speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously
forecasted hourly late evening gridded values. Current temperature
trends continue to generally be in line with forecasted lows.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Morning sounding from OHX shows very little instability in place,
even when accounting for the forecast max temp this afternoon.
Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak and the wind profile from
850 mb upward is unidirectional, but it`s what one would expect
being on the north side of a surface boundary such as we are.
Ongoing activity over West Tennessee is having a difficult time
propagating eastward. The HRRR does develop scattered activity
across Middle Tennessee from mid afternoon through the early
evening, but storms will have a better chance over southern Middle
Tennessee, where there actually is some instability. The
aforementioned surface boundary will lift northward overnight,
and this will bring heavier, more widespread rain to Middle
Tennessee mainly during the day Sunday, then lasting through
Sunday night and into Monday before the boundary drifts southward
again and an upper trough swings through and dries us out somewhat.
QPF values are considerable; storm total values from 12Z Sunday
until 18Z Monday range from 1 to 3 inches across the mid state.
So at least localized flooding is possible with the heavy rain
that`s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Expect the atmosphere to begin drying out by Monday afternoon,
but we won`t dry out completely. There will be enough lingering
moisture to enable the atmosphere to produce isolated to scattered
convection during peak heating hours from Tuesday onward as a
warmer-than-normal air mass builds back into Middle Tennessee. The
good news is that the potential for severe storms throughout the
upcoming 7-days remains very low. The primary threats are the
flooding potential later this weekend, then heat indices of 100 to
105+ starting on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
A band of showers will impact CSV through the next few hours with
MVFR cigs/vsbys at times while CKV/BNA/MQY stay VFR through this
evening. Overnight all sites will drop to MVFR as another wave of
showers develops. Daytime Sunday will feature numerous showers
with scattered thunderstorms. Rainfall will be heavy at times. Mainly
MVFR cigs/vsbys expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 72 85 73 89 / 40 80 70 60
Clarksville 69 83 72 90 / 60 80 70 50
Crossville 68 80 68 81 / 40 80 80 80
Columbia 71 86 72 89 / 50 90 60 60
Cookeville 70 82 71 84 / 40 90 80 70
Jamestown 68 80 68 82 / 40 80 80 80
Lawrenceburg 71 85 72 87 / 40 80 60 60
Murfreesboro 71 85 72 88 / 40 80 70 70
Waverly 71 85 71 90 / 50 80 70 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Updated discussion for 00z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Precipitation has hung on better than expected across southern
portions of the PAH forecast area this afternoon. This has held
temperatures down by several degrees in these areas. The HRRR
shows these showers fizzling out by 00z, while the RAP keeps
showers across west Kentucky into the early evening. Went with
showers dying off between 00z-02z.
Models show a frontal boundary to our south lifting north tonight
into Sunday morning as an upper level trof moves over the
Mississippi valley by 12z Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
entire PAH forecast area by late tonight and continuing through
midday Sunday. The best chances and highest QPF will be focused
across our southern counties through this time period. The front
will lift north of our region late Sunday into Sunday night as the
upper trof moves slowly off to our east, and we will see our
highest chances and QPF now becoming oriented across our
southeastern portion of counties through Monday morning.
Forecast QPF through Monday morning has trended downward a
little, ranging from less than a quarter of an inch near
Interstate 64 in southern Illinois, to an inch and a quarter to an
inch and three quarters in portions of southeast Missouri and
west Kentucky. Isolated higher amounts will be possible,
so localized flooding is not out of the question, but widespread
issues are not expected at this point. How quickly the front
actually lifts north will affect QPF amounts, so we will see how
models continue to handle it.
A secondary surface boundary will sink southward Sunday night,
but will remain north of the PAH fa through Monday night. We
will see a lull in convection Monday afternoon. However, with this
boundary to our north, the upper trof just to our east and a very
soupy air mass in place over our region, chances of showers and
thunderstorms will return to our north/northeast counties Monday
evening, and to all but our far west counties late Monday night.
The Monday night QPF will not be substantial.
High temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow, with lows
tonight, Sunday night, and Monday night near to a little above
normal. On Monday, with the afternoon expected to be mostly
convection free, sunshine will return and high temperatures will
reach around 90 degrees. With dew points in the middle to upper
70s, heat indices around 100 degrees will be possible across
northern and western portions of our region. And the heat begins
its return.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
A pattern change is still expected to occur early next week, when an
expansive upper-level ridge will develop over much of the nation.
This will flip the switch back to hot and dry conditions, with heat
indices climbing above 100 each day.
On Tuesday, the Plains 500 mb ridge will begin building east. Rain
chances will be lower than previous days, mainly in the slight
chance category.
On Wednesday through Friday, a narrow 500 mb ridge axis will extend
from the Plains high east across our region to the Bermuda high.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon between the two
500 mb high centers. However, most places are not expected to
receive much rainfall.
The gfs and ecmwf ensemble means indicate the 500 mb high will
strengthen as it reforms over the mid Mississippi Valley or central
Plains by Saturday. This should reduce or eliminate the daily
thunderstorm chances Saturday.
High temperatures each day will range from around 90 in the EVV tri-
state area to the mid 90s in the Ozark foothills. Oppressive dew
points in the mid to upper 70s will be persistent. Expect a stretch
of at least four or five consecutive days with peak heat indices
above 100. Messaging of the heat wave will continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
VFR conditions will persist through 08z before MVFR cigs/vis
spread north with scattered shra/tsra. The greatest risk for MVFR
conditions will be across terminals KCGI and KPAH through 12z
while other terminals will not see MVFR cigs until 17-18z.
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
806 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections
.SYNOPSIS...Prolonged heatwave will continue across inland areas of
the Pacific Northwest through the weekend, while the coast remains
considerably cooler and experience periodic clouds and fog.
Thunderstorms remain possible over the central Cascades each day
for the next few days, especially Sunday into Monday. Temperatures
turn more seasonable next week, especially Tuesday onward.
&&
.Discussion...EVENING UPDATE: At 03Z GOES-17 water vapor imagery
showed a closed upper low centered near 42N 132W. Meanwhile, the
ever-persistent strong upper level ridge axis remained centered from
the northern Sierras to the Washington coast. Infra-red imagery
revealed convective activity over much of southwest and south-central
Oregon, with some of this action spreading north along the Lane
County Cascade crest and then veering to the northeast into
north-central Oregon. The main convective action late this afternoon
through early evening was focused over the southwest Oregon higher
terrain to near McKenzie Pass and toward north-central Oregon. It
appears low-level convergence with the thermally-induced surface
trough and on the west-side of a 700 mb theta-e ridge helped to
support the convective activity. Water vapor imagery did not show an
obvious short-wave disturbance to provide enhanced upper level
dynamics. Favorable contributors, besides the above-mentioned
factors, also included moist, southerly mid and upper level flow and
possibly a little upper-level diffluence focused over the south and
central Cascades. The 12Z convective-allowing models (CAMS) suggest
convection near the Lane County Cascades will dissipate through the
evening. Weishaar
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: Signs that the prolonged
heatwave will continue across the area into Monday have been
solidified today after a review of latest model guidance. Upper
ridging stretching from Nevada into northwestern Oregon continues
today, while a closed upper low cut off from the main jet flow sites
offshore about 400 miles off the southern Oregon coast. At the
surface, a thermally induced low pressure east of the Cascades and
high pressure over the North Pacific continues onshore flow,
resulting coastal areas being under marine stratus and fog during
most of the day and all night. Maximum temperatures today will be
topping off right around what we saw last Tuesday, our hottest day of
the week. Interesting of note, small little perturbations rotating
north in between the offshore low and inland ridge has produced and
sustained isolated showers streaming off the central OR coast and
into the northern Willamette valley. Looking at water vapor imagery
reveals that this will likely continue this afternoon, in addition to
the convection expecting and already occurring over the Lane County
Cascades. Besides this evening`s convection over Lane County, no
models have convection over the area tonight. However, seeing some
elevated thunderstorms offshore of southern OR currently does lower
confidence in a clear forecast tonight. Will have to watch trends
this evening. Tonight`s lows will be some of the warmest we have
seen, especially after today`s high temperatures and some convective
debris clouds to possibly move over the area.
On Sunday, latest trends of both deterministic and ensemble guidance
holds the upper low just off the coast slightly longer, resulting in
less of a cooldown expected for Sunday. Cross sections and forecast
soundings actually show little change for Sunday. What it does
have is slightly more moisture at 500-600 mb, likely resulting
in what we`re seeing out there today in terms of isolated clouds
and high based showers. One wild card we are having to consider now
however, is the smoke being produced off the McKinney fire that
started yesterday in northern CA. This may end up having an effect on
temperatures, cooling high temps and warming low temps,
depending on the thickness. Currently the HRRR Smoke model keeps
the smoke aloft (rather than at the surface), with not too much
concentration. The highest chance for it to impact temperatures
will likely remain in Lane County and south, but chances remain
low. Increased cloud cover slightly, but added no PoPs.
Sunday night, more mid-level moisture along with cooling at lower
levels are seen in soundings and cross sections, however guidance
continues to go warmer than previous runs with Monday`s temperatures.
It appears that what cooling we do receive Monday is mostly due to
cloudy conditions more than any sort of cool front/marine push. Have
went with the NBM guidance which ended up warming the previous
forecast by 6-8 degrees.
Confidence in Tuesday`s forecast is quite low, as the latest runs of
all the guidance now retrogrades the cutoff low to the southwest,
instead of bringing the low onshore like they had previously. Now,
they are bringing an upper low from southcentral AK down over BC and
swinging that trough over the PacNW Thursday. Quite a chance from
previous runs.
WPC cluster analysis shows all 4 clusters with a trough over the
region Thursday, with the upper ridge building back in again from the
west with different timing through Saturday. Kept the NBM guidance
with no confidence any any one solution really in what happens in the
mid-late week time frame. /Kriederman
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFs: Strong ridging aloft continues resulting
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for inland locations,
which are expected to persist through at least 18Z Sunday. Weaker
onshore flow is expected over the next 24 hours which is why
areas north of KTMK have yet to see IFR/LIFR conditions. However,
these locations within the next few hours. Elsewhere along the
coast, IFR/LIFR conditions have already been established.
Overall, coastal terminals will have IFR/LIFR conditions through
least 18Z Sunday with conditions likely improving afterwards for
areas along the coast.
Smoke from fire activity in northern California is moving
northward, and may impact slant range vsbys during the daytime
hours, especially KSLE southward.
For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to:
https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies, with light
northerly winds expected through at least 18Z Sunday. /42
&&
.MARINE...The weather will generally be quiet over the coastal
waters for the next few days, with a couple of exceptions.
Pressure gradients are expected to tighten up this evening,
leading to marginal SCA gusts of 20-25 kt in our outermost
northern coastal waters. Localized areas of wind gusts up to this
speed are possible in other areas but they should be brief. These
stronger winds will produce a fresh swell around 5-6 ft with a
dominant period of 9 seconds spreading across the waters late in
the weekend into early next week. Winds will decrease and remain
below Small Craft criteria for the first half of next week.
Dense fog was an issue this morning on the coastal waters,
reducing visibilities to less than one mile at times. This was
handled well by a Dense Fog Advisory that expired at 11 AM. Buoy
webcams and coastal observations seem to indicate some improvement
in visibility within the stratus this afternoon, so confidence was
not quite high enough that fog would be dense enough to warrant
another Dense Fog Advisory tonight/Sunday morning. Future shifts
will monitor and issue as needed. Weagle
For information about upcoming marine zone changes, go online to:
https://www.weather.gov/pqr/marinezone
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Cascade Foothills in
Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of
Western Oregon-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower
Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern Oregon
Cascades-South Willamette Valley.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central
Columbia River Gorge-Central Willamette Valley-Greater
Portland Metro Area-Upper Hood River Valley-Western
Columbia River Gorge.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
night for Willamette National Forest.
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington
Cascades-Willapa Hills.
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Central
Columbia River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-Western
Columbia River Gorge.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Waters from Cape
Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 nm.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1021 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Created new 03-06Z pop/wx grid for leftovers and lower some Lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Rain cooled air sure does make for a nice mid summer`s evening
with lower to middle 70s. Our winds are calm or light E/SE for
most around 5mph. We still have some lower 80s in parts of our TX
counties as well as a few showers lingering along I-20. Another
rubble of thunder for the SHV/BO metro is possible as light rain
dissipates. Also in NE LA between Farmerville and Bastrop,
elevated thunder is trying to tapper off as convection moves
eastward. Not expecting anything further after midnight, and maybe
by 11pm. Last day of a month still has a shot at some more July
total looking at HRRR and new 00Z Nam. Let`s those who missed out
can see something, albeit less intense with whatever coverage the
heat/humidity and left over boundaries can do for us. The
stationary front over S AR with be lifting back N with breezy SW
flow. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Low-level southerly flow will return to the region by Monday
resulting in an increase in humidity and moisture levels once
again. An upper-level ridge will slowly migrate eastward towards
the Plains from the Rockies but will be considerably weaker than
previous weeks. However, there will be a bit of a weak axis of the
ridge trailing eastward across the region and connecting with
another ridge over the Florida Panhandle. This should provide
enough subsidence to keep most of the forecast area dry. Through
Wednesday, convection will be limited to afternoon sea breeze
activity affecting portions of Western and Central Louisiana from
Lower Toledo Bend eastward. With mostly dry weather and subsidence
returning, daytime high temperatures should climb generally a
degree or two each day. Areas experiencing Severe to Extreme
Drought conditions, such as Southeast Oklahoma, portions of
Southwest Arkansas, and much of East Texas, should begin to see
high temperatures near or just over 100 degrees by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Combined with the humidity, peak heat index values will
also likely climb above 105 degrees again across portions of the
forecast area.
During the latter half of the work week, the center of the western
upper ridge will move into the Central Plains and strengthen.
Medium range models are in good agreement that a weak shortwave
trough will rotate southwest and west across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and into East Texas on the southern periphery of the ridge.
This should result in some increased coverage of diurnally-driven
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours southeast of a line from
Lufkin, to Shreveport, to El Dorado. The rain and cloud cover
should also result in some slightly cooler daytime high
temperatures. Unfortunately, convection will likely remained
confined to southeast half of the forecast area, and locations
farther to the northwest under Severe-Extreme Drought conditions
will probably not receive much relief. /CN/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2022
For the ArkLaTex terminals TS at KELD/getting hit again. At KLFK,
but improving already and in VCTY of KSHV. Still gusts of 20-30KT
with boundary interaction developing new storms for about another
hour until sundown. Lots of debris overnight with winds aloft
trying to transition from E to W with this nearby front and it`s
convection. This front will lift out of S AR overnight and head
back N during Sunday. L/V winds overnight w/ SKC"ing" and then PC
& hot w/ SW10-20KT out of TX, and less speed for KELD/KMLU. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 97 77 95 / 40 10 0 10
MLU 75 96 75 95 / 30 20 0 20
DEQ 73 93 73 96 / 30 20 0 10
TXK 74 95 77 96 / 40 20 0 0
ELD 70 91 74 93 / 40 20 0 10
TYR 78 100 77 98 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 76 98 76 97 / 30 10 0 10
LFK 77 99 75 97 / 20 10 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...24