Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/29/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Surface high pressure will continue to push southeast through the MO
River Valley through tonight. A cooler/drier Canadian airmass has
pushed south into NE this afternoon with dew points ranging from the
50s across southwest NE and 40s across northern NE. A cold front has
settled well south of the area area across KS into CO, and this
will be where the thunder focus will be through tonight into Friday.
With that said, a HRRR has hinted that there could be a few isolated
mid-level showers and perhaps some thunder late tonight into Friday
morning across northern NE. Having a hard time finding much support
for this, and since other CAMs really not supporting either will not
add any pops at this time.
Low-level return south to southeast flow develops Thursday as
surface high pressure tracks off to the east of the area. Expect
increasing low-level moisture with dew points rising into the 60s
across western NE. A weak warm front will be situated near the SD
border of Cherry and Sheridan counties and could serve as the focus
for isolated thunderstorms. Forcing is weak but convergence and low-
level moisture convergence near the boundary might be enough. If a
storm materializes heavy rain could occur as PWATS increase once
again to around 1.2".
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will build east across
the Rockies Saturday and into the Central Plains by early next week.
Temperatures will gradually warm with highs by next week well into
the 90s. Humidity will be quite low across western NE, but recent
rainfall may have helped greened conditions somewhat which could
mitigate fire weather concerns. This will be evaluated in the days
to come. Very little chance of rainfall next week as the ridging
builds overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the region through
the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain light, generally
under 10kts. However, a slight wind shift from the north to the
southeast is expected through the overnight hours tonight. Some
isolated showers are possible across southwest Nebraska in the AM
however, confidence is too low for inclusion at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Viken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms will linger in the vicinity of KCDS until sunset
tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/
SHORT TERM...
A CU field has begun to develop and expand early this afternoon over
much of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. A relatively weak and
more gradually diffuse surface boundary has stalled on an
approximate west to east line from Morton, northeast to Plainview,
then east to Paducah as of 3pm. Synoptic deterministic guidance
hadn`t picked up on the outflow-reinforced boundary sagging this far
south from previous runs, while the HRRR seemed to pick up on this
feature with more consistency in subsequent mid-to-late morning
runs. Only change to previous forecast for this afternoon and
evening is a small shift south in slight chance PoPs given the
current position of the aforementioned surface boundary. Some brief,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to emerge from the
CU field through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.
The initial lift provided by the surface boundary this afternoon is
the primary source of instability attm with prorogation from
subsequent outflow and cold pools helping new development if/where
updrafts develop and mature enough. H50 flow is virtually
nonexistent so updrafts will struggle to maintain orginization.
Brief downpours and gusty winds (DCAPE values between 1200-1600
J/Kg), up to 60mph, are possible with the strongest storms, expected
to occur between now an sunset over the northern half of the South
Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. Whatever convection remains
around sunset should diminish quickly after sundown. Weak landspout
funnels have been reported already in south Lubbock with more
possible through peak heating. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler for most locations, especially those north of the boundary or
those fortunate to receive some rainfall.
The boundary splitting the CWA in half today is expected to
gradually lift north and stall once again west to east across the
southern Texas Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. Deeper, richer
boundary layer moisture is expected to fill in south of the boundary
through the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow. As the
boundary lifts north, the trough axis associated with the Polar Jet
across eastern Kansas will stretch farther west into western
Oklahoma and the southern Texas Panhandle, marginally improving
upper level instability. PWATs are forecast to increase to
approximately 1.50"-1.75" in some locations just south of the
surface boundary. Any convection initiated along or near the
boundary that can sustain updrafts long enough to tap into a
relatively brief window of improved upper level instability, from
mid-afternoon to early evening tomorrow, will be capable of
efficient rainfall rates and brief periods of heavy rain and gusty
downdraft winds up to 60mph. The WPC has highlighted a small area in
our northern zones for a slight chance of excessive rainfall, which
would be expected to occur in a window from approximately 3pm to 8pm
tomorrow. Convection could linger longer past sunset tomorrow than
any storms we may see today, but should either weaken and/or move
east and north of our CWA by midnight tomorrow night.
LONG TERM...
Convection over the southern Panhandle is expected to send a series
of reinforcing boundaries southward late Friday evening, with a
cooler and much more moist low level airmass settling over the
region by Saturday morning. The increased convergence may generate
scattered weak pulse-type storms across the region late Friday
night, though increasing inhibition should limit coverage and
intensity. Still, a few downpours remain possible through early
Saturday morning given progged instability and PWATs exceeding 1.5",
especially across the southern Panhandle. The upper level pattern
will begin to gradually deamplify on Saturday as upper ridging
builds over both the southeastern CONUS and the Great Basin. The
monsoonal moisture plume will tend to pull southeastward in
response, resulting in the maintenance of relatively high PWATs
over the region through the weekend. An upper shortwave transiting
over the TX Panhandle may spark additional convective development
Saturday afternoon, though uncertainty in overall coverage
remains high and will depend on the degree of boundary layer
drying during the day. At this point, will maintain SChc mention
mainly across the SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains where surface
moisture is expected to hold on longer.
On Sunday, upper ridging centered over the Intermountain West along
with continued weak troughing over the Midwest will result in a
brief period of weak northwesterly flow aloft. The potential
therefore still exists for terrain-focused monsoonal convection to
drift into the SW Panhandle and portions of the South Plains on
Sunday evening, though at this point it appears likely the bulk of
this activity will remain on the western side of the TX/NM state
line. Otherwise, temperatures will make quite the jump on Sunday
as stronger SSW surface flow boosts temps back near 100F across
the entire area. Warmer temperatures will also linger through much
of next week as ridging remains in place over the southern CONUS.
The amplitude of the upper ridge appears it will remain a bit
lower than last week, mitigating the chances for extreme heat.
Even so, afternoon highs in the upper 90s/low 100s are expected
through the entire upcoming week, with dry conditions prevailing
aside from low chances for a few weak diurnal storms near the
TX/NM state line mainly on Monday afternoon. /DWK
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.UPDATE...
The broad subtropical ridge off the Carolina coast extends
westward into the Lower MS Valley this evening with a strong
trough spinning over Ontario. Strong westerlies exists across the
OH Valley in between these two features. Large-scale ascent in the
right entrance region of a strong jet assisted in today`s
convection across the Mid-South, in addition to an area of ascent
moving around the western periphery of the upper-level ridge. At
the surface, the diurnal convection across the Mid-South has
dissipated, but storms remain ongoing along a quasi-stationary
front extending through western KY and into northern AR.
The front to our north may begin to slip south overnight with an
area of showers and thunderstorms develop overnight AR in the next
few hours. This convection is forecast to move eastward into the
Mid-South, mainly affecting areas along/north of I-40. The HRRR
has been latching on to this for several runs along with the 12z
HRW-ARW and the 18z NAM Nest. Localized heavy rainfall is possible
but the potential for strong to severe convection should remain
rather low. PoPs were increased in the northern half of the CWA
overnight to account for these trends.
MJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022/
Today is the day a lot of have been waiting on for weeks across
the Midsouth; a transitional day. Over the next several days we
will experience a cooler and wetter pattern. Much of the Midsouth
will likely remain below 90 degrees tomorrow, through the weekend
and into early next week. Tuesday into the middle of next week,
we will probably see highs back in the low to middle 90s.
The main focus this afternoon and tomorrow is the chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms. Depending on exactly how much rain we get
over the next day or two, the focus could shift to the potential
for flooding this weekend. We will take a wait and see approach
on the flooding potential but the WPC does include northeast
Arkansas, all of west Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall in both their day 1 and day 2
outlooks. The remainder of east Arkansas and north Mississippi is
under a marginal risk. For day 3(Saturday) the slight risk
includes far northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel with a slight risk for the remainder of east
Arkansas, the remainder of west Tennessee and all of north
Mississippi. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2
inches along and ahead of a stalled cold front across the
Midsouth. Unidirectional, fairly weak, westerly wind aloft will
support training of showers and thunderstorms along the surface
front/boundary. Localized rain rates of 2-3 inches per hour may be
possible. Rainfall totals through the weekend will likely be 2-4
inches across much of the Slight risk area with localized totals
well above 4 inches possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Midsouth in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in both their day 1 and day
2 convective outlooks. The front along with numerous outflow
boundaries should help focus lift. Diffluent flow aloft should
help maintain healthy updrafts. Steep low level lapse rates and
the the high precipitable water values mentioned above should all
be supportive of strong to severe storm clusters this
afternoon/evening and tomorrow, especially during the afternoon
hours. Storms should weaken and diminish after sunset both nights.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue through the weekend, but
the front should become unidentifiable and lapse rates are
expected to weaken a bit. As a result storms over the weekend
should be less organized and even more diurnally driven. However,
any weak or subtle disturbances that move through the westerlies
could enhance convection.
The ridge returns by midweek resulting in warming temperatures.
However, the extreme dry conditions do not look like they will
return next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs
Mostly VFR conditions will remain outside of increasing shower
and thunderstorm coverage tonight into tomorrow. Winds with these
showers and storms will likely remain variable throughout the TAF
period at 03 - 06 kts. There is a possibility for MVFR conditions
at MKL early Friday morning, but if this occurs it should be
short-lived. Confidence of MVFR conditions is low, so did not
include this in the TAF for now.
ANS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the area through the early morning
hours. A frontal wave then approaches from the southwest late
Friday, passing to the south and east Friday night. High pressure
will build in on Saturday, remain in place through Sunday, then
move offshore Monday as a warm front approaches from the south.
Unsettled weather then returns with a frontal system that
impacts the region through Tuesday. High pressure returns by the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cold front progressing across SW CT, the Lower Hudson Valley,
and NE NJ with little fanfare with real spotty showers. Airmass
under a strong mid level cap and stabilizing with loss of
heating. Still though, a pop up shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out as the front works east across the area. The front
will exit far eastern LI and SE CT during the early morning
hours.
Low temps tonight should range from the mid 70s in NYC, to the
mid/upper 60s inland.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front should stall off to the SE on Fri, with a wave of low
pressure moving along it. Meanwhile there will be an upper
trough to the west as well as the area falling under the RR quad
of a 115-kt H3 jet streak across upstate NY and New England.
With this in mind think clouds and precip with the wave will
extend farther north than model consensus, leaning more toward
the wetter ECMWF solution., especially going into late day Fri
into Fri night. Instability appears too meager for thunder.
Showers should end before daybreak Sat.
High temps on Fri should ne in the 80s to near 90, with the
highest temps inland. Lows Fri night should range from the 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A relatively pleasant weekend to close the month of July is on tap
for the region. Behind the frontal passage late Friday, surface high
pressure builds in its wake, bringing dry, pleasant conditions to
the region this weekend with a W or NW flow.
Moisture begins to increase with the approach of a warm front from
the south on Monday. The chance for rain increases as the front
lifts north, continuing through Tuesday as shortwave energy moves
through an upper trough. Coverage looks more scattered in nature,
with at least the chance for some showers and thunderstorms during
the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look to be close
to, if not a couple of degrees above, normals this weekend into
early next week with highs generally topping out in the mid-to-upper
80s.
Meanwhile ridging over the Pacific Northwest, currently bringing
record heat to that region, is forecast to translate east next week.
Global ensemble means are in good agreement given the time range,
with a building 500mb ridge upwards of 2 sigma across the Central
and Eastern US mid-to-late next week.
CPC has a moderate risk of excessive heat outlined for the entire
region late next week. NBM probabilities (13Z) for Mac T > 100F
during this time period have more than doubled since yesterday,
now over 30% for Central Park and 40% for Newark, adding
support to this potential. All this to say that there appears to
be an increasing signal of another heat spell into late next
week that will need to be monitored. NBM guidance was generally
followed for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak cold front moves through the terminals this evening,
dissipating to the east on Friday. A frontal wave approaches
from the SW late Friday, passing to the south and east Friday
night.
Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR in showers, possibly a thunderstorm,
late Friday into Friday night.
S winds veer around to light W/NW overnight, then shift back to
the S/SW by late morning 10-15kt. A few gusts up to 20kt
possible in the afternoon, mainly at the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers, possibly a
thunderstorm.
.Saturday through Sunday...VFR.
.Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels on all waters into
early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With PW around 2 inches, any showers or thunderstorms could
produce locally heavy downpours. Storms should however move
through quickly enough to minimize any flood threat.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk Friday for all Atlantic facing
beaches from a combination of 2-3 ft S wind waves and 2-3 ft SE
swells.
There is a low rip current risk on Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DR/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Stalled boundary will remain across the area into the weekend
and will continue to be the focus for numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain mild for late July, but
the high humidity will continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Thursday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are remaining just south of the
area this evening. We have shrunk the areal coverage of rain to
along and south of the VA/NC border. We also lowered PoPs to 20-30
percent range.
As of 610 PM EDT Thursday...
We will continue to watch a patch of storms coming across Tennessee
this evening. Current track would have them moving into west-central
NC. With this in mind, we have canceled the Flood Watch a few
hours early.
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...
A warm and very humid airmass remains in place south of a
diffuse and nearly stationary boundary extending from the
Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic region. Aloft, still sandwiched
between an upper low over southern Canada and a southeast ridge
centered off the GA/FL coast. In between, western flow with
embedded disturbances continues to provide the chance for rain
and thunderstorms. Not much difference this afternoon when
compared to yesterday, with the biggest difference being the
coverage of the rain/storms is much less today. With that said,
still expecting some new development of storms as the afternoon
progresses, especially in locations that have seen clearing this
morning and early afternoon, namely across the VA/NC border.
Morning RAOB had PWAT values around 1.7 inches but looking at
the most recent RAP analysis, these have likely recovered back
to around 2.0 inches so storms will once again be very
efficient and will produce very heavy rainfall. Will need to
continue to monitor areas where training/backbuilding occurs,
especially for locations in the western mountains where multiple
rounds of rain have already occured the past few days.
Expecting rain to taper off overnight with only some scattered
showers remaining and could see some patchy dense fog across the
area as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As 130 PM EDT Thursday...
Stalled frontal boundary will remain in place through Saturday
with continued chances for rain and storms. Another front will
approach the area from the north on Friday and will finally
give the current airmass a stronger nudge. However, this will
likely only shift the boundary into the Carolinas, eventually
stalling out again on Saturday.
Friday appears to have the best coverage of rain and storms with
the front moving through, then by Saturday, best chances shift
more towards the NC/VA border, closer to the stalled front.
Temperatures again remain mild for July, but no relief from the
heavy and humid airmass through Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 PM EDT Thursday...
Flooding potential increases Sunday into Monday for portions of the
region.
On Sunday through Monday, a warm front will lift very slowly north
through and then north of the region. Accompanying this front will
be a generous swath of moisture advecting into the region front the
west, but having its point of origin from the central Gulf of
Mexico. High pressure centered over the southeast U.S. will be
resulting in this moisture wrapping clockwise around the high and
into the region. Forecast Precipitable Water values off the NAEFS
suggest values around 1.75 to 2.00 inches coincident to the location
of the warm front as it lifts north through the area. The equates to
the plus one to two sigma range, or 90 to 97.5 percentile range, as
compared to normal. Given the rainfall some of the region has had,
with more expected for portions of the region Friday and Saturday,
the confidence of a flooding potential will be increased on Sunday
into Monday. Just where specifically is too detailed of a question
to refine with precision at this point in time. However, given what
has happened, where Friday and Saturday amounts are expected to be
greatest, and where amounts are currently expected to be greatest
Sunday into Monday, the western and southwestern sections currently
are looking like the regions with the greatest potential for
flooding.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving east across
central Tennessee and into North Carolina this evening. These
storms should wane through the rest of the evening.
If enough clearing takes place overnight, fog is expected to
develop, possibly dense across mountain valleys (KLWB/KBCB).
With a moist westerly wind, a low stratus deck is likely at
KBLF. East of the Blue Ridge, VFR ceilings and visibilities are
expected.
Conditions improve an hour two after sunrise as fog burns and
cigs lift. Should go back to all VFR with the possibility of
some mixed MVFR across the mountains. Showers and thunderstorms
return to the area Friday afternoon.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
The front will meander and linger through Friday night with
periods of showers/thunderstorms, mainly favoring the
afternoon/evening hours. The abundant moisture and daily
precipitation will result in areas of dense late night/early
morning fog/low clouds with MVFR or lower conditions.
Another front will approach the area on Saturday and may
briefly push the deepest moisture farther south into the
Carolinas. Confidence in this occurring is low at this point
with the more likely scenario for the front to linger close to
the Virginia/North Carolina border.
Some periods of VFR will occur between late night/early morning
fog and afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially east of
the Blue Ridge.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/RCS
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG/RCS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall possible at times through the weekend. Amounts
will be highly variable and confidence is low .
2. Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Well
below average on Saturday.
3. Excessive heat is likely to return next week.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
An MCV moved through the area today, sparking thunderstorms mainly
across the northern and eastern CWA. Subtle shortwave energy
moving in from the NW has led to some isolated convection just
south of Kansas City. Some of that activity may move across the
northern CWA this evening, but most areas will remain dry.
For tonight and Friday, models have trended southward with greater
precipitation coverage and amounts. In fact, the HRRR now has most
of the area dry through Friday, but with greater QPF just south of
the CWA. The placement and amount of QPF will depend largely on
mesoscale features so confidence in placement is low. However,
with a low level jet, plenty of moisture, and a baroclinic zone
overhead, if convection can develop over the area there is
potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Cloud cover looks to prevent much instability from developing on
Friday, so severe weather is not expected at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Similar to the short term situation, mesoscale features and
previous convective influence will play key roles in coverage and
placement of convection Friday night into early Monday.
Ingredients will be in place for heavy rainfall and flooding, but
confidence is low. Storm total QPF from larger scale models and
WPC look too broadbrushed with higher end totals. We expect
potential for localized storm total amounts of 3-5 inches
(possibly even higher), but widespread amounts will likely be
much less. Flooding will be possible if factors line up.
Confidence in cooler temperatures through this weekend is much
greater. Expect highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Saturday and the
low to mid 80s on Sunday.
Confidence is also good that ridging will build back into the area
next week. Look for highs in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday through
Thursday with potential for heat index values of 100-110.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022
Generally expected VFR cloud cover through the period. Overall
coverage of storms expected to be fairly low at the SGF/JLN TAF
sites and have left them dry for now. Have added some prob30 group
for BBG with better convective chances along the MO/AR border on
Friday. May have some MVFR or brief IFR within any convection.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg