Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1007 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms are exiting to the east this evening and the next
round of convection will move in from the west later tonight.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible tonight across portions
of Central New York. Showers will diminish from west to east on
Monday, and milder and drier weather is expected by Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM update...
The first round of thunderstorms has exited the region and we
are now focusing on the synoptic system bringing a cold front
through the region. Round 2 of storms is developing across
western NY and will make their way into the Finger Lakes over
the next couple of hours. The thunderstorms earlier in the day
have stabilized the lower atmosphere so the wind threat is lower
unless a storm can develop a tall core. RAP soundings show that
the CAPE overnight will be long skinny CAPE with a good low
level jet feeding into the storms and PWATs near 2 inches. Warm
cloud depths will be over 10,000 feet so efficient warm rain
process is likely with any of the storms. With the LLJ stronger
than the winds aloft and the wind vector of the jet also
parallel with the frontal boundary, backbuilding storms is a
concern. Some isolated hail and damaging winds will still be
possible mainly in the early evening across the Finger lakes
region but flash flooding will be the focus this evening into
overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch was canceled for most
of central NY and northeastern PA with a new severe thunderstorm
watch issued for the Finger Lakes region up through Oneida
county.
320 PM update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on
the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening
and the possibility for some persistent heavy downpours into the
overnight hours that could lead to some isolated flash flooding
issues. The heat and humidity will also be of concern for a
couple more hours.
The Heat Advisory currently in effect will likely be canceled
early due to the incoming increasing cloud cover and the showers
and storms. Heat indices will top out in the 90s.
A Severe Thunderstorms Watch is currently in effect until 10
PM.
Upper level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to
amplify and dig to the east across the Northeast US through
today as the air mass out ahead of the wave destabilizes and
creates a favorable environment for deep convection. ML CAPE has
increased to 500-1000 J/kg across the southern tier of NY and
into parts of ne PA. A layer of strong winds aloft remains
situated northwest of Lakes Erie and Ontario, which is placing
the stronger shear to the north. The overlapping area of central
NY and the northern tier of PA will become the most favorable
area for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the
evening.
Current regional radar imagery shows the deep convection over
north central PA starting to bleed north into the central
southern tier. There is a belt of strong winds in the 1-3km AGL
layer...which should be able to mix down to the surface fairly
easily as the thunderstorm cold pool descends to the surface.
The threat for strong damaging winds is the main concern. This
first round of storms is expected to grow and expand to the
east/northeast with some small bowing segments scattered across
the region producing brief wet microbursts.
There could be a break in the convection after 9-10 PM this
evening before the second round of convection...likely
elevated...along the incoming short wave pushes east across the
region. There should still be a ribbon of deep moisture just
ahead of the upper wave and surface front...which will be able
to interact with 500-1000 J/kg of elevated instability to
trigger another broad area of convection that will transition
slowly across the region through parts of the overnight hours.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with respect to the
placement, timing and intensity of the rain. The threat for
severe storms should be limited due to most of the convection
being elevated...but the persistent rain with potentially heavy
rainfall rates may lead to some pockets of flash flooding
issues.
Rainfall should taper off west to east Monday morning, but may
refire briefly over the Poconos late Monday afternoon within a
lingering area of instability, but move quickly out of the area
and leave the entire area dry by the afternoon. Temperatures
will be much more comfortable on Monday with highs only in the
upper 70s to mid 80s...and dew points in the 50s and lower 60s.
High pressure builds in Monday night with quiet weather and
patchy valley fog developing as temperatures fall into the 50s
and lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
200 PM Update...
A surface high and co-located upper ridge will allow for dry weather
Tuesday and Tuesday night. In the wake of Monday`s cold front,
temperatures will return to more or less seasonal values, with highs
in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s and Tuesday night lows in the 50s
and lower 60s.
However, a period of wet and unsettle weather will begin Wednesday.
Wet and unsettled weather will return for the remainder of the
forecast period. Wednesday, the upper ridge begins to move out,
while a sprawling upper low moves over Ontario and starts to drag a
cold front into the upper Great lakes. This will touch off a period
of warm air advection into Wednesday amid southwesterly flow, and
thus chances for showers and thunderstorms work back in. Wednesday
may also be our warmest day of the week, with highs well into the
80s area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM update
Unsettled weather continues the rest of the work week before we dry
out again for Saturday.
Wednesday night, the upper low over Canada starts to occlude, which
will cause the approaching cold front to slow or even stall out west
of our area. There may be some dynamical support to enhance precip
chances into early Thursday as a weak shortwave rotates around the
parent upper low still to our northwest. The upper trough finally
begins to dig in later Thursday into Friday, with the approaching
cold front keeping in chances for showers and storms through most of
Friday before the cold front finally moves through sometime during
the day. Models continue to trend drier, with higher PWATs closer to
2in now to our southeast and ensemble guidance showing a half inch
or lower for most of the area. Dry weather returns into the weekend
with a surface high building over the region.
Temperatures remain more or less seasonal through the rest of the
forecast period, though Thursday may be warmer compared to Friday
and Saturday ahead of the cold front. Expect highs generally ranging
in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of the convection has moved east of the forecast terminals
this evening...and all sites will be VFR for a couple hours
before the next area of convection moves in from the west. Vsbys
will fall to MVFR in the rain showers and some embedded TS is
possible, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs
at this time. Some fuel alternate ceilings are possible at RME,
ITH and BGM with the heavier rain showers. Conditions are still
expected to improve to VFR after 14Z Monday as the drier air
moves in. Some showers are possible at AVP with the tail end of
the cold front redeveloping convection for a few hours late
Monday morning, but conditions quickly go VFR and remain VFR
through the rest of the day. Winds 10 to 15 kt from the
southwest early this evening will drop to 7-9 kt tonight and
shift to the west/nw late Monday morning with gusts back around
15 to 25 kt by the afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...mainly VFR. Possible valley
fog at ELM.
Thursday and Friday...Next chance of showers and storms with
associated restrictions possible.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT/RLD
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...BJT/MPH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
927 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.DISCUSSION...Clear and mild conditions tonight. Light terrain
driven flow will bring an easterly wind to the Snake Plain. This
will act to draw some smoke from the Moose, Woodtick and Wolf Fang
fires into the western Magic and Treasure valleys through early
Monday. Otherwise SE Oregon will see minimal impact from smoke
aloft overnight. Have updated the forecast to limit smoke
coverage for portions of SW Idaho and southeast Oregon.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Hot daytime temperatures will
create high density altitude. Areas of smoke layers. Surface
winds: NW 5-10 kt becoming light after sunset and NW 5-15kt again
on Mon afternoon. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Hotter Monday and
Tuesday after today`s relatively cool upper trough to our north
moves away, and the hot upper ridge to our south begins to migrate
northward. Also, smoke from wildfires in California and near Salmon,
ID, will begin to spread into our CWA tonight and continue Monday
and Tuesday according to HRRR model. The smoke from the Oak Fire
near Yosemite in California will reach southern Harney and Malheur
Counties and will stay mainly aloft. Smoke from the Moose Fire
and other nearby fires near Salmon, ID, will be closer to the
surface. Smoke may take a couple degrees off high temperatures but
will not affect low temperatures. Forecast has been adjusted for
this. Winds will be light diurnal through Tuesday.
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The very warm upper level
high pressure ridge centered over the Intermountain Region will keep
temperatures above normal through the period. Smoke from wildfires
could lower daytime temperatures by a few degrees, but it is
uncertain how widespread and dense the smoke will be. Also uncertain
are the timing and amount of monsoon moisture which could seep into
our area from the south. Models are still favoring slight chances of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the central Idaho mountains
Wednesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
933 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat persists into Monday for portions of southern
New England. Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive Monday,
especially in the afternoon and evening, as a cold front
approaches. Strong to severe storms are possible, along with
heavy downpours. The heat wave then breaks, with much lower
humidity Tuesday and Wednesday, along with dry and seasonably
warm conditions. Another frontal system brings a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and/or Friday. Drier air
moves in for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM update...
Multiple lines/clusters of convection moving into western New
Eng this evening. MLCAPES around 1000 J/kg but CIN is increasing
and storms are likely becoming elevated. As boundary layer
slowly cools and instability diminishes expect activity to
gradually weaken and dissipate this evening, after which a
period of mainly dry weather expected overnight. Meanwhile,
additional convection flares up to the west overnight ahead of
the mid level trough. A few showers/t-storms from this activity
may spill into western MA toward daybreak.
Previous Discussion...
Highlights
* Could see renewed activity spread into western areas
overnight, but for most will be dry and quiet.
* Another muggy night with lows in the 70s for most. Urban
centers remain in the mid/upper 70s.
Risk of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two late tonight
as forcing increases due to the trough lifting in late and the
cold front sliding into the eastern Great Lakes. Will have PWATs
increasing to roughly 1.75-2 inches after midnight tonight and
oppressive humidity with dew points in the low/mid 70s. Lastly,
deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer will be increasing as the
night progresses. Should see far NW areas approaching 40-50 kts
while SE locations increase to 20-30 kts. Will be something to
keep an eye on, but storms may stay elevated in nature. Really
think the greater risk is during the evening for strong wind
gusts environmental soundings and NCAR Neural Network Convective
Hazard Forecast. Think that SPCs latest Day 1 Outlook of a
marginal risk is still warranted given the environment we are
in.
Given the persistent SW winds and increasing mid clouds will be
difficult for temps to cool much tonight. Actually am
anticipating some good mixing given the SW 30-45 kt low level
jet at 925 hPa. This will keep temps in the mid to upper 70s
across the region for lows tonight. Given the rising dew points
will not see a whole lot of relief especially across the urban
centers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights
* Active day across southern New England with strong to severe
thunderstorms anticipated as a cold front slides through. Main
hazard will be damaging wind gusts, some instances of large
hail, heavy downpours and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.
* Dangerous heat for eastern portions of the region late in the
morning into the afternoon before showers/storms move through.
Given the little relief overnight opted to extent the Heat
Advisory for portions of the region.
Shortwave trough over SW Quebec becomes negatively tilted as it
lifts into central Quebec and eastern Quebec late. A cold front
will slide into and through much of southern New England by late
in the day and offshore overnight.
Main concern is the risk for strong/severe storms. Not a whole
lot of change from the previous shifts thinking and CAMs
continue to highlight a line of storms crossing the region.
Will be under a tropical airmass with dew points in the low/mid
70s and PWATs up to 2 inches. Given the 500 hPa 50-60+ kt jet
streak lifting in and will be located in the equatorward
entrance region. This coupled with the cold front sliding in
will be more than enough lift given the tropical environment for
showers/storms. Given the activity sliding through overnight the
magnitude of the instability is still in question due to cloud
cover and if there are any leftover activity. Anticipate MLCAPE
values of a few hundred to roughly 1500 J/kg. Not out of the
question we see MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg as indicated by HREF
probs across portions of CT/RI. Deep layer wind shear values in
the 0-6 km layer increases to the 40-50+ kt range. On top of
this will have 6-8 degree Celsius low level lapse rates and 6-7
degree mid level lapse rates. Given the environment will have
the risk for strong/severe storms. Per HREF CAMs should see a
line developing across the interior and sliding southeastward to
the coast toward the evening. Should see this activity pushing
offshore overnight. Still have the risk of QLCs/supercells given
the environment. Leaning on the NCAR HRRR Neural Network
Convective Forecast the main risk will be damaging wind gusts,
potentially even a significant gust or two, isolated instances
of large hail and heavy downpours. Not completely out of the
question there is an isolated tornado given the tropical
environment and 0-1 SRH of 50-100+ m2/s2. Fortunately, the
heavy rain is needed and the activity will be fairly
progressive. This should keep there from being a high flooding
risk, but think the typical poor drainage/urban areas could see
issues as this activity slides through. Think that the timing of
roughly noon to 8 PM still looks good.
Did opt to extend the Heat Advisory across eastern portions of
the CWA given 850 hPa temps of 17-19 degrees Celsius. This
should be enough for spots to get into the upper 80s/low 90s and
coupled with the humidity will have the dangerous heat continue.
Not completely out the question this needs to expand into
portions of CT, but not as confident will reach criteria.
Will see the showers/storms tapering off during the evening as
the cold front slides through and pushes offshore. Anticipate
any of the strongest storms to be over with by that point. Will
be much more comfortable once the front slides through and temps
cool into the upper 50s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...
* Seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday along with
much drier and more comfortable air.
* No more heatwaves on the horizon with near normal highs, in the
80s, though next weekend.
* Next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday and
Friday
Details...
Tuesday and Wednesday...
Great news if you`re sick of the erroneously hot and humid weather
we`ve been having. A cold front (perhaps it should be called a cool
front in this case) overnight will leave a much drier and marginally
cooler airmass in place that will stretch into Wednesday.
Temperatures aloft fall from around 19C at 850 on Monday to 13C on
Tuesday which translates to highs falling back toward normal, in the
low to mid 80s. The more notable difference will be the fact that we
get rid of those 70s dewpoints and replace them with dewpoints in
the 50s! That will make it feel much more comfortable. By Wednesday
the return of W/SW flow will push temperatures back up into the
upper 80s but low dewpoints stick around.
Thursday and Friday...
Our next shot at rain and thunderstorms comes as high pressure
overhead is replaced with a trough of low pressure at the surface
and a mid level shortwave swinging through from the Great Lakes.
Ahead of the trough increasing southwest flow will advect in
increasing moisture (PWATs near 2 inches and dewpoints in the upper
60s and low 70s) and warmth which will lead to plenty of instability
(CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg). This with a few shortwaves and
vort maxima passing overhead and surface fronts will kick off a
round of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
Saturday and Sunday...
Increasing uncertainty for the weekend but it looks as if a drier
airmass is likely beneath a weak mid level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR to LIFR stratus and fog expected across ACK/MVY and perhaps
the Cape. Not out of the question this could spread into SE MA
but confidence is low. Otherwise VFR. A few showers or an
isolated storm possible especially across NW MA during the
evening. SW gusts to 20-30 kt Cape/Islands. Also, areas of LLWS
developing as low level jet moves across the region.
Monday...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.
Mainly VFR cigs, but areas of stratus may linger along the
south coast and Cape/Islands but improving to VFR. Scattered
thunderstorms expected to develop and move NW to SE across the
region, especially in the afternoon and evening. Any storms may
be accompanied by brief IFR conditions and heavy rain. Also some
of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and
hail. SW gusts of 25-30 kts over the Cape/Islands.
Monday night...High confidence.
Improving to VFR as showers and thunderstorms push offshore.
Think most of the activity will be confined to the south coast,
but will push offshore. Could perhaps see some brief MVFR/IFR
conditions if a shower/storm moves over a terminal. The risk for
strong wind gusts continues. Winds shifting from the S/SW to the
W/NW as the front slides through.
KBOS...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the southern and
eastern portions of the region due to gusty winds and elevated
seas.
Still have an increasing low level jet move into the waters this
evening into Monday. Will have gusts of 25-30 kts out of the SW
continuing into Monday. Seas build 6-9 ft across the southern
waters late tonight into Monday. Anticipate another night of low
clouds and stratus across the Islands and east of Cape Cod.
Should see any of this activity burn off by mid Monday morning.
Will have the risk of shower/storms late on Monday into Monday
night as the cold front crosses the waters. Some of these storms
may be strong/severe bringing the risk of strong to damaging
wind gusts and heavy downpours.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Temperatures
July 24
BOS...98 in 1933
BDL...96 in 1987
PVD...94 in 1933 and 1987
ORH...94 in 1910
Record Daily Warmest Low Temperatures
July 24
BOS...74 in 1935 and 1991
BDL...76 in 1961
PVD...74 in 1935
ORH...72 in 1935
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for MAZ005-013>018-020-021.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-
020>023.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ020-023-024.
RI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for RIZ001>005.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231-236-250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BL/BW
NEAR TERM...KJC/BL
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BL/BW
MARINE...BL/BW
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
809 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Scattered to numerous showers have spread across the southern
forecast zones throughout the afternoon hours. Cloud cover from
increased moisture across the region did limit convective
initiation further to the north with respect to strong/severe
potential, but several areas saw wetting rains of 0.10 inches or
more along and near the I-80 corridor this afternoon. Expect the
push of light rain showers impacting the NE Panhandle this evening
to continue moving to the east. Overnight, expect mild temperatures
with elevated dew points to continue. This will lead to patchy fog
and low clouds to be present for areas along and east of I-25 for
a small period of the early morning hours through daybreak.
NamNest and HRRR do highlight the potential for a few showers to
redevelop and persist across the NE Panhandle overnight, but
severe weather is not anticipated to accompany it.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Another busy day today with widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the CWA. Earlier, showers swept across Carbon and Albany
Counties, as well as the northern Nebraska panhandle. This prompted
the issuance of a Flood Advisory over portions of the Mullen Fire
burn scar. Temperatures are cooler this afternoon, with current
temperatures in the panhandle in the 80s, and 70s and 60s in
Wyoming. Thunderstorms have begun to develop over the high terrain
and plains of northern Colorado. These storms will push northeast
into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Following the
guidance of the HRRR since it was pretty spot on yesterday, most
of the stronger storms should be out of the CWA by about 8 or 9 PM
tonight. Some lingering showers may be possible through 3 AM,
however, these should not be impactful. Main concerns with the
storms today include heavy rain with the potential for localized
flooding, and wind gusts up to 60 mph.
Monday looks a bit quieter as the better moisture plume shifts
further east. Still some elevated PWATs around 1 inch in the
panhandle, but much lower PWATs for most areas west of the
panhandle. A shortwave moving through northern Wyoming will likely
trigger some scattered thunderstorm development over the high
terrain during the afternoon hours. As these storms move east over
the plains and into Nebraska, they will encounter a more favorable
environment and will likely strengthen. SBCAPEs in the panhandle are
about 1000 J/kg by the afternoon with decent shear. Model soundings
also show a shallow inverted-V profile. Marginally severe storms
could be possible with wind gusts up to 60 mph and moderate to heavy
rain. Hail could also be possible.
By Tuesday, the region enters a more troughing pattern with flow out
of the northwest. PWATs on Tuesday remain fairly similar with the
better moisture off to the east. However, residual moisture,
instability, and some energy from the trough, should be enough to
initiate scattered convection during the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Northwest upper flow over the CWA for Wednesday with relatively
cool 700mb temperatures over the area. PWATS fairly dry out west
with layered GFS PWATS around .4 inch. Further east across the
Panhandle...they are still up around 1 inch. Showers and storms
confined mainly to areas east of the Laramie Range.
Ridge begins to build over CWA as upper shortwave approaches
western Wyoming...allowing monsoonal moisture to return to most
of the CWA. ECMWF most bullish on QPF Thursday...with widespread
showers west of the Laramie Range. GFS showing the south Laramie
Range and maybe Laramie/Cheyenne seeing most of the QPF.
Regardless...looks like an uptick in convection for Thursday
afternoon. Not expecting severe thunderstorms as upper jet shifts
well east. PWATS on the order of .8 to 1 inch over the CWA would
suggest pulsy and heavy rain producing storms. One thing to point
out...both models showing very heavy rainfall over central
Colorado. If that monsoon moisture is able to shift further
north...we may see a large area of heavy rain. Will need to
monitor this over the coming days.
Daily chances for afternoon/evening storms through Saturday as
that upper shortwave takes its time moving through the CWA. Really
nothing to push it through with the jet stream well north in
northern Montana. So unsettled weather to continue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Wyoming TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Laramie from 06Z to 15Z,
and at Cheyenne from 09Z to 15Z. Wind gusts to 28 knots at all
terminals until 03Z, and to 25 knots at Rawlins and Laramie after
15Z Monday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, except for MVFR at Sidney from 09Z to 15Z.
Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Sidney from 03Z to 06Z. Wind
gusts to 28 knots at Chadron, Alliance and Sidney until 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday for areas
west of the Laramie Range. Warm temperatures, RHs in the low teens
and wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible. However, recent rainfall
should keep fire weather concerns minimal. Fire weather concerns
should be low through most of the week due to daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...SF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
238 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Dry, mostly sunny and hot conditions will persist
through the week ahead across inland northwest California.
Persistent marine layer clouds and fog will keep coastal areas
seasonably cooler with only some limited afternoon sunshine. There
is a small chance for thunderstorms across portions of the
interior later Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...General high pressure remains over the area this
morning. This has compressed the marine layer down to around 1,000
or 1,500 feet with a fairly strong inversion. Inland areas
continue to see warm temperatures, around 5 to 8 degrees above
normal. Locally breezy winds are expected up the river valleys in
the afternoon. Tonight and Monday these conditions are expected to
persist. Tonight with the shallow marine layer there is the
potential for some areas of locally dense fog along the coast.
This is particularly likely at elevations a few hundred feet above
sea level. Monday afternoon most areas are expected to continue to
see warm temperatures, much like today. Monday night the shallow
marine layer is expected to persist as well. Smoke from fires
well to the south of the area may drift into NW California Monday
afternoon and overnight. The current HRRR Smoke model shows it
mainly staying aloft, but it could degrade air quality slightly.
It is uncertain how long this smoke will persist.
Tuesday monsoonal moisture starts to work its way over NW
California. In addition, Tuesday afternoon a shortwave trough is
expected to move up the coast and create a potential trigger for
thunderstorms. Current model runs are not showing too much
instability and the lapse rates aloft are not all that steep
aloft. Still, with the increased moisture and shortwave it looks
like there is still the potential for some lightning. The
shortwave moves across the area overnight and this will continue
the threat for storms overnight and into Wednesday. By the time
peak heating occurs Wednesday the better instability and dynamics
may be to the north of area. This may just result in some mid and
high clouds but there is the potential for a few thunderstorms.
Thursday the ridge starts to strengthen over the area and this
will likely increase inland temperatures slightly. The marine
layer is expected to remain compressed and the coast may see some
partial afternoon clearing. Friday the ridge and the heat looks to
peak over the area. Saturday some of the ensemble clusters are
starting to show a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This
would increase onshore flow and would cool temperatures in the
near coastal areas. The other ensemble clusters keep the ridge
over the area longer with hot weather persisting into the
weekend. MKK
&&
.AVIATION...Visible satellite imagery shows marine stratus
persisting close to the coast this afternoon. Thus, it is expected
that any afternoon clearing of LIFR ceilings at KCEC and KACV will
be brief, with low ceilings becoming firmly re-established during
the evening and overnight hours. The other feature of note is
wildfire smoke spreading north across the Sierra Foothills this
afternoon. Model guidance shows that smoke spreading west across
Northwest California during the next 24 to 48 hours. Smoke will
likely be thickest above the surface, but visibility restrictions
can`t be ruled out across the region.
Garner
&&
.MARINE...Surface low pressure developing over the immediate coast
will aid in gradually shunting strong northerlies well offshore
during the next 24 hours. That will result in the cessation of small
craft winds and seas across all marine zones going into Monday. Weak
winds and low seas are then forecast to occur across the coastal
waters during much of the work week.
Garner
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry weather will persist through the
upcoming week as an upper-level ridge builds from the Four Corners
region toward northern California. Afternoon up-valley winds will
trend lighter over the next couple of days as a thermal trough
shifts off the coast, with mainly light and terrain-driven winds
through the week. The main fire weather concern will be as
monsoonal moisture lifts across northern California Tuesday and
Wednesday, and a small upper-level low passes by. While this may
just result in some higher level cloudiness, there is still a
slight chance that isolated thunderstorms develop. The timing of
this threat remains nearly the same as moving across northeast
Lake County to Trinity County Tuesday afternoon and night,
shifting through northern Trinity into Siskiyou County on
Wednesday. MKK/AAD
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
PZZ455.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
538 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
off and on through about the entire period. The most intense
storms could produce VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060. Best
chances will be before 08Z and after 18Z. Clouds generally
SCT-BKN070-090 BKN150-200 with winds becoming southerly to
westerly AOB 12KTS by 06Z areawide except near thunderstorms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances continue area wide this week with the best chances
over the high terrain and west of the Rio Grande. Heavy rains and
flash flooding are the main threats, but a few storms may produce
strong winds and large hail. More seasonal temperatures through
the end of July, with lowland highs in the lower nineties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Currently, the visible satellite imagery shows various types of
cumulus clouds across the western and eastern CWA with much of the
middle CWA clear. There is some stratus lingering across the
Sierra county from a decaying disturbance across to the north.
Under some of these cumulus, moderate to heavy showers and
thunderstorms are developing across aforementioned sections of the
CWA. Additional storms will be possible as the afternoon
progresses with somewhat of an inverted trough moving in from the
east southeast coupled with some weakness in a ridge of high
pressure centered across the Texas Panhandle. For tonight, showers
and thunderstorms will continue possibly through 6 a.m Monday
with PW values between 1.12 and 1.50 inches. These values will be
above the normal; thus, any storms that do develop could produce
heavy rainfall. This could lead to flash flooding especially in
areas with low water crossings and poor drainages. Much of the
storms are expected to be west of the Rio Grande; however, with
the that inverted trough moving through, areas east of the Rio
Grande could see better storm coverage than last evening. With
generally light winds and an anticipation of increased storm
coverage, the low temperatures on Monday morning should be a
couple of degrees cooler than this morning`s temperatures.
For Monday, any remaining storms in the area should diminish by
around 7 a.m. suggested by the HRRR model. More settled conditions
are expected by around mid-morning before another round of
showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. These
storms will be mainly confined to the west of the Rio Grande plus
the Gila Region/Black Range and Sacramento Mountains. However,
storms will spread across the rest of the CWA through the latter
half of the afternoon due to an abundance of moisture, diurnal
heating and outflow boundaries. The MUCAPE will be between 1200
and 2000 J/kg in the mountains and 400 and 900 J/kg in the
lowlands with the lifted index between -2 and -3 C. The PW values
will continue to be above the normal with the dew point
temperatures mostly in the 50s all day long. This implies that
storms that do develop on Monday could produce small hail and
heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall could also lead to flash
flooding in isolated areas especially where the ground is already
saturated from previous storm events. With storms expected on
Monday, the high temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler
than what today`s high temperatures will be due to rain-cooled air
and cool outflow boundaries.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Southeast flow aloft over the borderland behind broad high
pressure across the Southeastern U.S. will promote favorable
monsoonal moisture transport up the western Mexico coast and into
much of southern Arizona and New Mexico midweek. While models have
been consistent in focusing the deepest moisture plumes westward
into Arizona, precipitable water values of 1.1-1.3 over southern
New Mexico and far west Texas combined with less subsident flow
aloft allowing for greater mid-level instability should help get
convection going each afternoon.
Despite daily thunderstorm chances, I can`t find any notable
signal that would suggest better storm coverage or increased rain
rates. Overall, the long term forecast looks very normal for late
July, with isolated lowland/scattered mountain thunderstorm
activity each evening. High temperatures will reach the lower-mid
90`s each afternoon, right along climate normals. Activity will
continue to be very hit-and-miss through next week, with the best
chances favoring zones west of the Rio Grande and into Arizona
closer to the primary monsoonal plume.
Extended models suggest the redevelopment of ridging flow over
the Great Basin as we head into August. For now, it looks like
this will do very little in terms of moisture advection or pattern
changes. Sufficient moisture trapped under the high usually isn`t
good enough for widespread rains, but would keep slight PoPs in
place. I would expect near normal temperatures and spotty (but
heavy) rain chances to continue into early August.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Additional moisture will move in on Monday bringing chances for
showers and thunderstorms to the borderland. The winds will be
generally light between 5 and 15 mph except in areas in and around
thunderstorms. Erratic gusty wind outflows are possible in the
presence of storms. Temperatures will be below the normal for
most of the area courtesy of these storms. With that being said,
there will be no fire weather concerns in near future. Conditions
will be similar on Tuesday with moisture in place, light winds and
below average temperatures. For the rest of the week, showers and
thunderstorm are possible during each consecutive afternoon and
evening hour. Conditions will be more or less a carbon copy of the
previous day weather event.
Min RHs will be between 25 and 40% in the lowlands and 40 and 70%
in the mountains throughout the week. Ventilation rates will be
poor the very good for the same period.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 95 72 94 / 70 30 60 30
Sierra Blanca 68 89 67 88 / 80 50 50 30
Las Cruces 70 93 69 93 / 70 40 60 40
Alamogordo 69 92 67 92 / 40 40 40 30
Cloudcroft 50 68 50 69 / 40 70 50 50
Truth or Consequences 70 92 69 91 / 60 50 50 50
Silver City 63 82 62 80 / 80 80 60 70
Deming 69 92 68 90 / 80 60 60 50
Lordsburg 67 88 67 86 / 80 70 60 70
West El Paso Metro 72 93 71 92 / 80 30 70 30
Dell City 70 94 68 94 / 60 30 40 20
Fort Hancock 71 95 69 93 / 80 40 60 30
Loma Linda 66 87 65 86 / 70 40 60 30
Fabens 71 93 70 93 / 70 30 60 20
Santa Teresa 70 92 69 91 / 80 40 70 30
White Sands HQ 72 91 71 90 / 70 40 60 30
Jornada Range 69 92 69 90 / 60 40 60 40
Hatch 70 93 69 93 / 60 50 60 40
Columbus 70 90 69 88 / 80 50 70 50
Orogrande 70 92 69 91 / 50 40 50 30
Mayhill 57 80 56 80 / 30 60 40 40
Mescalero 56 79 55 79 / 30 70 40 50
Timberon 54 79 53 78 / 50 60 50 40
Winston 62 84 61 82 / 70 80 50 70
Hillsboro 66 90 65 88 / 70 60 50 60
Spaceport 68 92 67 91 / 50 40 50 40
Lake Roberts 59 81 58 80 / 80 80 50 70
Hurley 65 88 64 86 / 80 70 60 70
Cliff 61 90 60 88 / 80 80 50 70
Mule Creek 63 85 63 82 / 80 80 50 80
Faywood 65 87 65 85 / 80 70 60 60
Animas 67 88 66 85 / 80 70 60 70
Hachita 66 87 66 86 / 80 70 60 60
Antelope Wells 65 87 64 85 / 70 70 70 70
Cloverdale 62 82 61 80 / 70 80 60 80
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
36-Texeira/30/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1026 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Updated the forecast to include some of the 01Z RAP to increase
POPs in the south a bit as well as decrease a bit in the north for
this evening. Still looks like most of the rainfall will wind up
being in our south looking at latest radar and satellite data as
the MCS heading into Kansas heads east. Also brought chances a
little lower for thunder given limited elevated instability.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Clouds (and a few sprinkles) have persisted across much of
northern Kansas into this afternoon, resulting in temperatures 20
degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. Over Nebraska, there
are only some thin cirrus, but even here it is only in the mid
80s. Expect quiet weather to continue through the evening, with a
good chance for showers and storms returning late overnight.
Models continue to be in agreement of one or more bands of
showers/storms developing in response to a shortwave arriving from
the west-southwest late tonight (mainly after 1am). Near-term
models show modest, elevated instability (up to 1000J/kg MUCAPE),
so wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple strong storms, but
severe weather is unlikely. Coverage will continue to expand
through the early morning on Monday. Exact location of heaviest
precipitation is a bit uncertain, but ensembles favor areas
between I-80 and the KS/NE state line to have the highest totals.
I am cautiously optimistic that many areas in the heaviest band will
see 0.50-1.50", but areas outside of this band could easily end
up with just sprinkles.
Monday has continued to trend cooler as models indicate that
clouds and possibly even some rain showers may hang around into
the afternoon hours. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70
degrees in some spots...a HUGE change, especially compared to
Saturday. Some models hint at convective redevelopment by late
afternoon, but confidence in this occurring is low given the
lingering clouds and limited instability.
The rest of the week continues to features temperature near to
below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring continued chances
for thunderstorms as shortwave pivots around an upper low dropping
southward into the Great Lakes region. Beyond Wednesday, there
are still low, spotty chances for rain, but ensembles appear to
turn drier as this upper low departs. Looking into next week,
long-range ensembles indicate that we could be heading into
another hot/dry stretch for the beginning of August.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Main problem for this forecast is developing and lowering stratus
north of a stalled boundary in Kansas. Mainly damp and dreary
conditions are expected to send conditions to at least IFR
conditions if not just into LIFR ceiling at short intervals.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heinlein
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Showers and thunderstorms will exit after midnight. Dry, cooler
and less humid air overspreads the region to start the workweek,
though chances of showers and thunderstorms return by midweek.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
A cold front continues to work its way east through northern
Indiana at this time. Growth along the front has been modest over
the last couple of hours. There have been a couple of lighting
strikes and small upticks in updraft strength based on satellite
observations. However, these showers have remained very shallow,
with any 50dbz cores staying below 15,000 ft. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates these showers are headed into a favorable CAPE
environment in northeast Indiana, but the window of opportunity is
narrow due to ongoing showers and storms happening in an area
southeast of US 24. Therefore, as quickly as they encounter
instability, the showers will soon encounter a worked-over
atmosphere from the preceding storm activity. As a result, the
severe weather risk for the remainder of the evening is largely
over.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Strong shortwave to rotate through Lake Superior this evening,
embedded in persistent Hudson/James Bay longwave trough. This will
lead to ramped mid level westerly flow to 60 knots this evening,
affording strong deep layer shear environment/around 50-55 knots.
Concern still centers on potential failure of strong/severe
convective development owing to aftereffects of expansive/strong
MLCIN bubble, associated with continued decay of leading stratiform
rain shield dropping southeast through CWA early this afternoon.
Concern that this will effectively shunt late afternoon
destabilization gradient farther south, lending modest potential for
severe wind gusts south of US 24 within better overlap of high shear
and instability pool rooted closer to near surface. Latest visible
satellite imagery showing some agitation to linear cu field
associated with low level convergence tied to cold front pushing
east through extreme southwest Wisconsin/northeast Illinois,
albeit still relatively shallow returns. Latest RAP13/HRRR at to
lesser extent other CAMS, however continue to aggressively
supplant MLCIN eastward into north central Ohio with a southern
Illinois to northern Indiana MLCAPE axis 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
axis emerging by 22 UTC. RAP indicated strong updraft
helicity/reflectivity development noted over north central CWA
between 21-22 UTC with multicellular clusters tracking southeast
through northeast IN/northwest Ohio this evening. Conflict between
CAMS and observational data points to high conditionality for
strong/severe storms as any storms will have organizational favor
given strong effective layer shear.
Rapid steering flow and with frontal boundary currently western
Lower Michigan to near KGYY, frontal passage sweeping through CWA
this evening will also limit severe potential, both temporally
and spatially.
Drier, less humid airmass overspreads late tonight through Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
Frontal boundary lies out through Ohio Valley, keeping at least
daytime hours dry on Tuesday. Modest return flow in advance of midweek
reloading of Ontario/Upper Great Lakes trough brings return of
chances showers/storms, especially Wednesday as attendant frontal
zone sags southeast towards CWA. Low chances linger into Thursday
as frontal boundary stalls out, then dry and mild into the
weekend as trough axis shifts into northeast CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022
While a cold front is crossing far southern Lake Michigan, a large
complex of thunderstorms has developed over central Indiana which
is reducing the likelihood of TSRA for KSBN and KFWA. Instead,
KSBN is likely dry for the remainder of the TAF period. Confidence
is medium-high as the cold front is quickly approaching and
satellite and radar shows very little promise for wet weather. The
MVFR ceilings are expected to quickly improve this hour.
At KFWA, light radar returns are dotting the area but with no
lightning and a poor appearance on satellite. As such, the
lightning risk is low at this time. Within a few hours, the wet
weather threat will end as the cold front pushes east. Gusty winds
will diminish soon after the cold front passes. Preceding the cold
front, I`ll keep an eye on intermittent MVFR ceilings in the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Brown
SYNOPSIS...Murphy/Brown
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...Brown
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
555 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Generally, warm across the interior and cooler near
the coasts. Slightly cooler midweek but rewarms late week. Smoke
arrives aloft beginning Monday morning. A weak disturbance lifts
over the region late Monday into early Tuesday and could bring
weak elevated convection as it interacts with monsoonal moisture.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 02:00 PM PDT Sunday... The marine layer
deepened overnight from 1500 feet to 2000 feet and brought
overcast skies to most urban areas this morning. Also had reports
of localized drizzle along the coast. As of 1PM, the marine layer
has remained fairly steady at around 2000 feet but has retreated
back towards the coast, allowing for mostly cloudy skies for most
urban areas. Afternoon temperatures are running roughly 2 to 4
degrees warmer than this time yesterday, except along the
immediate coast.
The deepening of the marine layer and patchy drizzle occurred due
to the presence of a passing short wave trough present over the
PacNW and NorCal. This trough is currently splitting with the
majority of the energy lifting northeast into the upper
intermountain west as it reintegrates with the jet stream. The
remnant energy within base of the trough will linger nearer to
the Bay Area through the next 36 to 48 hours, but more on that
later. Otherwise, expect today to play out similarly to previous
days with cooler conditions nearshore and bayshore and much warmer
to hot conditions across the deeper interior. Hottest interior
locations such as the Pope Valley, Lake Berryessa, and the
Pinnacles National Park region will push upper 90s to around 100
again this afternoon.
The marine layer remains fairly deep tonight due to the ongoing
presence of the weak low off the coast. Expect to wake up to a
combination of these marine stratus clouds... and... for those in
the North and East Bay, the arrival of wildfire smoke from the
Oak Fire. Both the Bay Area Air Quality District and our internal
data indicate that this smoke will arrive through the day tomorrow
and remain overwhelming aloft (as in, not at surface level), so
the main impacts will be hazy skies with a slight red/orange
tint for those in the North and East Bay. Those at higher
elevations, ie in the hills of the North and East Bay, may at
times notice the tinge of smoke in the air and increased haziness
depending on the level they`re located. By Monday night, winds
aloft will guide the smoke slightly further southward, and may
also impact San Francisco and Oakland by Tuesday morning. Beyond
Tuesday, will need to monitor the wildfire behavior further to
determine potential smoke impacts. That said, the latest smoke
output is always publicly available at https://hwp-
viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/smoke in your web browser. Use the arrival
of this smoke into the region as a reminder to review your
wildfire evacuation plans if living in area prone to such events.
As previously discussed, the low pressure system moving across the
PacNW and NorCal early today is currently splitting. The lingering
remnants of the base of the trough are anticipated to coalesce
into a relatively weak 587dm 500mb low pressure disturbance
immediately off of the Central Coast. Forecast progs indicate that
this feature will begin to lift towards the northeast Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning and intersect with monsoonal
moisture arriving from the southeast at the same time. Latest
indication is that there is a marginal to slight chance of
elevated convection or even a high based thunderstorms late Monday
to Tuesday morning, primarily on the northeastern periphery of the
lifting disturbance. Elevated instability parameters are
sufficient for our area to at least warrant a slight chance
mention due to MUCAPE values of 50-300j/Kg & modified Total Totals
of 30 amd locally slightly above. Also worth mentioning that
model cross sections of arriving moisture trended deeper over the
North/East Bay with the last run and was the final nudge towards
including a mention of instability in the forecast.
The feature continues to lift towards the northeast and shifts the
limited threat of convection moreso into extreme northern
California and southern Oregon by midday Tuesday. Given the
looming low pressure and presence of smoke aloft, temperatures
will become slightly cooler midweek. High pressure rebuilds by
Thursday and will result in a warming trend across the interior
while the marine layer retracts but continues to keep the coast
and bayshore relatively cool through the end of the week. In
addition, could see some monsoonal moisture rotate in from
Southern California and bring another possibility of elevated
convection after the ridge builds later this week.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:55 PM PDT Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR
prevailing, except for coastal terminals where stratus has moved
ashore (MVFR/IFR). Satellite imagery shows marine stratus
blanketing the coastal waters and coastline, and funneling through
the Golden Gate, without any impacts to SF Bay terminals yet. But
these terminals will likely be impacted later tonight, as stratus
feeds into East Bay and wraps around the bay towards South Bay
and KSFO. May see a mix of MVFR/IFR Cigs, lower along the coast.
Marine layer has compressed to around 1500 ft and is expected to
remain fairly consistent. Breezy onshore winds diminishing
tonight.
Low clouds clear back to the coast mid- to late Monday morning,
with breezy onshore winds returning by afternoon. Also keeping an
eye on elevated smoke from the Oak Fire. HRRR smoke model keeps
smoke mainly to the north and east of the Bay Area throughout the
day, but suggests some may drift over the Bay Area by nightfall.
Will monitor for impacts to visibility. Also expecting an increase
in mid/upper level moisture in that timeframe which will bring
higher level clouds and slight shower chances (likely elevated)
to North and East Bay.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the evening with moderate
confidence in Cigs arriving after midnight (IFR/MVFR), based on
latest model output. WNW winds near 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
through the evening, before diminishing. Low clouds clear mid to
late Monday morning. Breezy onshore winds in the
afternoon/evening.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Stratus fills over the approach early Monday
morning between 500 to 1000 ft AGL and lasts into the mid- to
late morning. Otherwise, similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay...IFR Cigs this evening with LIFR possible later
tonight. Stratus now over coastal areas and entering the northern
Salinas Valley which will fill tonight. Rising Cigs by mid-
morning with clearing late morning or early afternoon. Breezy
onshore winds return in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...as of 02:09 PM PDT Sunday...Lighter northwesterly winds
continue across the waters. A moderate period southerly swell
continuing to diminish. Breezy to gusty winds will persist in the
north SF Bay, causing hazardous conditions for small craft.
Lighter winds and seas persist through mid week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP
AVIATION: Lorber
MARINE: Murdock
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