Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/23/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 651 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Key Messages:

 - A few storms possible in the south tonight

 - Significant severe weather event possible Saturday

 - More rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday

 - Cooler temps for next week

* TONIGHT: a few storms possible, mostly south

Water vapor satellite imagery shows shortwave pulse in western
Minnesota with attendant frontal boundary draped into northwest Iowa
and eastern Nebraska. The warm sector theta e lobe containing mid
60F surface dewpoints continues advecting southeast this afternoon,
nearly zonally draped over our warning area tonight. Convection
today will be limited by a 850 mb capping warm nose (~25C),
indicated in the 12Z RAOBs (DVN/MPX). High res ensembles hint at
scattered possibilities, with little consensus. Therefore, have not
added PoPs, but will monitor for pop up diurnally driven convection
similar to yesterday.

The nocturnal low level jet ramps up to 30-40 kts tonight advecting
near 2" precipitable water values into the zonally-CWA-bisecting
boundary. High resolution ensemble paintball plots place increased
reflectivities along the nose of the low level jet, with SREF mean
soundings indicating elevated convection. HREF mean MUCAPE near 2000
J/kg grazes our southern periphery with warm cloud depth reaching
13,000 ft. Sufficient speed shear within the hail growth zone will
keep hail as a threat, as well as heavy rain and strong winds.
Storms expected to be progressive at this time, limiting heavy rain
threat. Have increased PoPs along our southern periphery.

* SATURDAY: Severe Weather Threat

Severe threat increases for Saturday afternoon as multi level
synoptic forcing collocates through the Northern Plains. An excited
upper level jet streak containing multiple waves collocated with
positive mid level vorticity advection and increased low level
moisture transport within another increased theta e lobe places
severe weather threat across all of our forecast area. Surface
dewpoints within this positive theta e lobe will eek into the mid
70s, on another nearly zonal axis near Interstate 90. Have increased
surface dewpoint temperatures slightly above National Blend to align
closer to 50th percentile among model guidance. With this increase,
max heat indices flirt with triple digits in our southern counties.
However, with limited temporal window (~1hr), will not issue
headlines at this time.

An initial surface boundary will advect southeast out of central
Minnesota during the afternoon with convection expected to pop up
along this line. Timing will be dependent upon upstream development
and progression of storms out of the Dakotas in the morning
associated with synoptic forcing. HRRR model guidance suggest
discrete cells initiating into western Wisconsin ahead of this SE MN
line hinged on a warm boundary/ meso triple point, morphing with the
upstream line as it passes through the forecast area into central
Wisconsin. All types of severe weather are possible with ample shear
values at all levels, including a mesoscale convective system.

Primary threats continue to be strong winds, large hail, and locally
heavy rain. CSU GEFS-based machine learning probabilities for
tornado/wind/hail encircle the entire forecast area, and have
increased for both strong winds and tornado potential compared to
yesterday. Given the inverted V high resolution model soundings,
microburst winds will be a concern. Clockwise turning hodographs in
the 0-4km layer contain ample SRH, however with higher LFCs and well
mixed model soundings, difficulty becoming surface based leaves
tornadoes as secondary threat. However, along aforementioned
dewpoint/CAPE surface boundary spin up possibilities could be
increased. The upper level trough sags through the area into the
overnight hours, bringing a final round of precipitation.

Forecast busters/dependencies that should be mentioned: A slight low
level cap for select SREF members and deterministic models does NOT
appear to be an overall limiting factor at this time given more than
ample instability. Convection firing off the Dakota border Saturday
morning will be more of a factor. While model guidance suggests
ideal collocation of synoptic parameters in our area, an outrunning
cold pool or dislocation of synoptic forcing will change behavior of
convection.

* TUE NIGHT/WED: another shot for rain

GFS and EC in fairly good agreement with driving an upper level
shortwave trough/sfc cold front across the upper mississippi river
valley Tue night/Wed morning. Some differences in timing, but good
support from the models` ensembles members. Timing could limit
instability (about 1k J/kg of MUCAPE) while deeper layer shear could
lie westward, into the cooler air. Some moisture return per 850 mb
moisture transport with 4 km warm cloud depths/1.75" PWs to fuel
storms (and some locally heavy rain potential). Severe risk looks
low at this time, based on model trends for timing. Will run with
NBM for rain chances.

* NEXT WEEK: trending cooler

After the steamy day Saturday, cooler air will start to filter into
the region, with another push of cooler air post the weather system
Wed morning. EC ensembles have been trending cool for the past
several days with 75% of its members at or below normal through
Friday. Roughly only 5 degrees or so, so not significant cold (upper
70s/lower 80s for highs). Tue likely the warmer of the upcoming
days, ahead of the next rain maker.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

A scattered to broken 4 to 6K deck of clouds will continue through
23.02z along and just north of Interstate 90. After these clouds
dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating, there may be a
scattered 10 to 15K deck from storms moving east across northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin overnight.

On Saturday afternoon, a line or lines of thunderstorms will move
southeast across the area. Some of these storms could become
severe with damaging winds (up to 60 knots), large hail, and
maybe even a few tornadoes. Currently went closer to the NAM Nest
timing of storm arrival around 23.19z at KRST and 23.20z at KLSE.
However, the confidence in the timing of these storms is not as
high earlier. This is due the HRRR being about 2 to 3 hours
earlier.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAR/RIECK
AVIATION...Boyne



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 1022 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Severe thunderstorms continue to push eastward through McHenry,
Pierce, and Rolette counties. The southern storm has been
rotating a lot, feeding on the 400 meters squared per second
squared. Has not produced a tornado but did get a report of a
funnel cloud earlier with a rotating wall cloud. We have
maintained the mention of golf ball sized hail because of the
strong meso with 70 mph winds in the warning.

The severe storms are almost out of our area but some storms
behind these in Bottineau County. We are watching these to become
severe as well. Early Saturday morning with the low-level jet
kicking in, another round of storms is expected across the central
and south. Timing for these are around 07z, but the CAMS dont all
agree on the timing. We keep updating PoPs to reflect the current
radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Currently monitoring the International border as a storm as fired
along the cold front just north of the border. This storm should
slide into our area later tonight, as well as more storms
developing.

Hand analysis at 21z showed a moisture pool north of
Highway 2 between a warm front in the central and the cold front
in Canada. This is where we are watching for storm development
when this cold front slides south into North Dakota. The shear
vector is out of the west, so storms will slide mostly east along
the fronts. Cumulus clouds are also along the warm front in
central North Dakota, not sure if storms can fire along this
being it is already warm there. There is another storm just across
the border in South Dakota that is non-severe. Looks like the
storm has slip and the left mover is moving into our area,
possibly too much shear there for organized severe storms. We
will also be monitoring this area close as well. SPC has a 60%
chance for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the north. We have
updated PoPs as the previous forecast had storms moving in sooner
than what is actually occurring.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Main forecast challenges are convective potential, initially over
the north this evening and then shifting to southern ND later
tonight. Water vapor imagery continues to show shortwave trough over
eastern Washington/northern Idaho, pushing eastward across the
broad upper level ridge. As this feature approaches the Northern
Plains, surface low will strengthen in the vicinity of northwest
ND with a strengthening frontal zone also. Latest surface
analysis showed surface low over eastern Montana, with pressure
falls extending into western ND. Latest SPC mesoanalysis data show
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40kt effective bulk shear centered
over northwestern ND. Satellite imagery also shows cumulus
spreading into southwest ND with some light radar returns. Added
some low pops across our southwest to account for this during the
remainder of the afternoon.

The area in northern ND will serve as a focus for potential
convection by late afternoon/early evening. Several CAMs depict
strong/severe convection crossing from Canada into far northwest
ND and traveling east/southeastward. HREF updraft helicity
probability output also favors this region, which is covered by
the marginal area in the SPC Day 1 outlook. HRRR guidance is less
aggressive, likely due to stronger capping per forecast soundings
over northwest ND. HRRR brings some strong storms into the
northeast CWA later this evening, around 02Z. The second area of
concern is our south central and southeast CWA late tonight,
which is supported by a low level jet intersecting the southward
moving frontal zone. RAP guidance indicates around 2000 J/Kg of
MUCAPE over far south central and southeast ND coincident with
40-50 kts of 0-6km shear. Pops in the forecast account for these
trends, with increasing pops across the north from west to east,
with slightly lower pops southwest, in a less favorable
environment. By late night, highest pops (up to likely) are in
place over the southeast.

After any remaining convection departs the region Saturday morning
expect decreasing clouds, northerly surface winds and cooler temps
with highs from the mid 70s north to low 80s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Surface high builds southward across North Dakota Saturday night,
with mostly clear skies and light winds. With an upper low over
Hudson Bay, flow aloft over our region remains northwesterly
initially. By Monday night, an upper level trough approaches from
the northwest and exits the region on Tuesday. This brings the next
chance of precipitation, followed by mostly dry weather with temps
running near to below normal as northwest flow is reestablished.
Overall, the pattern looks relatively quiet with neither CIPS Severe
Analogs or CSU MLP guidance suggesting any significant severe
weather concerns in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

VFR conditions through the period. There is a chance for
strong to severe thunderstorms in the central and south around
07z. Winds will mostly be out of the north, gusting up to 20kts
Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is possible at KBIS and KJMS
Saturday morning.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...Smith



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

 946 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued hot with moderate levels of humidity this weekend.
Heat is oppressive on Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps into Monday,
but less certain as a cold front brings showers and
thunderstorms. Dry and more seasonable weather, with lower
humidity, is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Another frontal
system brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
945 PM update...

Small area of convection across eastern NY to NE PA moving
eastward ahead of a mid level shortwave. As this shortwave
moves east, there is a low risk a brief shower could spill into
SNE, but expect much of this activity to weaken as the boundary
layer stabilizes. Stratus and fog along and E of ACK may back
in across Cape Cod and Buzzards Bay overnight.

Previous discussion...

420 pm update...

Monitoring developing convection just off to our west in association
with an approaching shortwave. Although surface temperatures are in
the upper 80s to some mid 90s, lapse rates are not all that
impressive and MLCAPE values are generally less than 500 J/kg. There
is also a good amount of dry air per mid-level water vapor, so it is
not a very supportive environment for anything more than isolated
and not very deep convection. Latest CAMS are basically "meh" with
regard to much happening into the evening. Doing some timing of what
is currently on radar, we should see isolated showers into the CT
River Valley about 5pm, but not expecting them to make their way
much further east. So will keep with the generally 20% PoPs in the
forecast for far western areas.  A couple of the hi-res models,
namely the HRRR and RAP indicate that later tonight an area of
elevated instability and moisture will traverse across the region
and bring the potential for isolated showers.  Have added in a 15-
20% PoP for basically northern CT across RI and to SE MA for this
possibility. If there is any shower activity, no significant
rainfall is expected. Otherwise kept with the guidance blend for
overnight lows which will range from the mid-60s across those
"colder" higher elevations to around 70F most everywhere...except
lower 70s in the urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
420 pm update...

No big changes to the Saturday forecast. Pretty much sunny and hot
with moderate levels of humidity. Zonal flow aloft with a flat ridge
and continued southwest low level flow. 925mb temperatures will be a
smidge warmer than today, generally in the 23-25C range. That easily
supports highs in the 92-95F range at lower elevations. With plenty
of sunshine again, and the ground on the dry side due to the lack of
rain, hedged toward the warmer guidance and went a little above the
75th percentile from the NBM and have most of the region in the 93-
98F range. Should see another day with decent boundary layer mixing,
which will act to keep dewpoints in the more tolerable low 60s
range. So although it will be hot, the apparent temperatures (heat
index) will be pretty much equal to the air temperature. May again
be a sea breeze along the east coastal areas, but if it does happen
it probably won`t make much of an inland push of more than a mile or
so. General southwest flow will mean the "cooler" temperatures will
be along the south coast, Cape and Islands, but they should still
top out around 90F in many areas -- just as we saw today. Quiet but
very warm weather for Saturday night. Given we should be warmer on
Saturday, overnight lows will also be a little higher so most
everyone will stay at or above 70F. That means in the center of the
bigger cities (Hartford, Providence and Boston), overnight lows will
only be in the mid to upper 70s. Therein exists issues for those
most at risk to heat related problems. The current Heat Advisory for
tomorrow looks spot on, and no changes were made. Do the best you
can to stay cool and hydrated with water.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights

* Heat Advisories continue through Sunday. Heat peaks on Sunday with
  some spots flirting with 100 degree temps. A few showers/storms
  may leak into the interior Sunday afternoon/evening.

* Still hot and humid on Monday, but will see the shot for more
  widespread showers/storms as a cold front moves through into
  Monday night. Not out of the question there could be a few
  stronger storms.

* Drier and cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another shot for
  showers/storms on Thursday.

Sunday...

Remain under cyclonic flow through this period. A shortwave will
lift from the central Great Lakes through the eastern Great Lakes
during the day into northern New England/Quebec by the evening.

Expecting it to be dry and quiet for the vast majority of the region
through this period. Continued the trend of increasing temps and
lowering dew points as there should be strong mixing within the
boundary layer per GFS/NAM Bufkit soundings. Will see a roughly 20-
35 kt SW low level jet lift into the region. At 850 hPa temps will
be in the 19-22 degree Celsius range, but do have some concerns that
the mid level cloudiness could keep some spots from really
maximizing temps. Due to this have gone with the 75th percentile of
guidance for highs. The latest and previous EPS guidance indicates
low/moderately high probabilities of temps AOA 100 degrees for the
CT and Merrimack Valley. This is however not the cause with the
GEFS/GEPS guidance. For now with the 75th percentile temps are
approaching 100 in these spots, but much of the region away from the
south coast should have no problem getting into the 90s.

Given the deep mixing anticipated have lowered dew points to the
25th percentile of guidance. For most this brings dew points into
the 60s during the peak of the heat, which results in heat indices
peaking in the mid to upper 90s for most. There may be a few spots
getting into the 100-102 range, so am holding off on an Excessive
Heat Watch at this point. Will be something we need to keep a close
eye on, but have a catch twenty two here because if temps warm
further due to deeper mixing the dew points also would be drier.
Regardless if folks are heading outdoors they will want to stay
hydrated. Not out of the realm of possibilities an Excessive Heat
Watch/Warning is needed in a future update. Think that the risk for
low 70 degree dew points is highest along the immediate south coast
due to the persistent SW flow, but temps will be a bit cooler.

Have generally stuck with the NBM for precipitation chances across
southern New England during the afternoon/evening. Think that the
risk for some scattered showers/storms is greatest across the
interior where activity from NY leaks in. May be more difficult
further to the south/east due as it is more removed from the
forcing. At this point do not think there is a severe risk as the 30-
40+ kt deep layer shear is more centered over NY/northern New
England. Will have roughly a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with
adiabatic low level lapse rates and poor mid level lapse rates.
Think that the deep mixing and lower dew points will taper down how
widespread the activity is. Will have a better shot on Monday as the
front is moving in.

Monday into early Tuesday...

Still under cyclonic flow through this period. Will have a slightly
more amplified shortwave dig from Ontario late on Sunday into
Quebec/northern New England by late Monday. This lifts northward
late on Monday. At the surface a cold front will slide into and
through much of southern New England. This will bring us our next
shot for more widespread showers/storms.

Stuck with the NBM through much of this period, but tapered back
chances especially earlier in the day. Will be well enough removed
from the forcing that most other than far NW MA may be dry during
the morning. Depending on the amount of cloudiness this could lead
to MLCAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg along with increasing
deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer. By the afternoon should see
values in the 30-50 kt range with low level lapse rates of 6-8
degrees Celsius and poor mid level lapse rates. Given the parameter
space do not think it is out of the question there could be strong
to severe storms. Am a bit skeptical due to the upper forcing being
well removed and destabilization is a bit of a question. Will point
out that both the CSU Machine Learning and CIPS Severe Analogs
highlight a severe risk for our area. Still a bit early to do a deep
dive into the specific, but definitely something to keep an eye on.
Given the persistent SW flow will have PWATs increasing to 1.75-2.25
inches and warm cloud layer depths of 3.5-4.5 km, so could have some
heavy downpours at times. Fortunately most of the region needs the
rain and the things look progressive.

Not completely out of the question we see another day where Heat
Advisories are needed. Given the SW flow will have dew points in the
low to mid 70s for most. Much of the region will have temps well
into the 80s with some low 90 degree readings in the CT/Merrimack
Valley. Right now think risk is highest for the CT/Merrimack Valley
where Heat Index Values are in the 95-100 range, but given the
cloudiness am not confident enough on the temps to extend the Heat
Advisory into Monday. May be needed in future updates.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Have stuck with the NBM through this period as the emphasis in the
extended was placed on the prior periods. Ridge axis builds into the
Great Lakes on Tuesday and eastern Great Lakes/New England
Wednesday. Next shortwave/trough lifts in heading into Thursday.
High pressure builds over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Frontal
system brings the shot for more showers/storms on Thursday.

In wake of the cold front will see much more seasonable temps and
comfortable humidity levels on Tuesday/Wednesday. Humidity levels
climb up on Thursday, but temps remain seasonable with the shot for
showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR across the vast majority of the region. Cannot completely
rule out an isolated shower across CT/RI and perhaps SE MA. Have
kept VCSH in at PVD/FMH/HYA, but confidence in coverage of
shower activity is lower than average. At the moment HRRR is
only piece of guidance showing this. Main concern is the
Cape/Islands as stratus and fog spread in. Should lower to
IFR/LIFR limits for most with the lowest at ACK. Light WSW/SW
winds.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR across southern New England. Moderate confidence in sea
breeze developing at BOS given it occurred today under similar
conditions. Guidance is somewhat conflicted in winds remaining
AOA 10 kts below 2 kft. Window appears to be in the 15-19Z
timeframe before flow strengthens. Elsewhere WSW winds at 5-10
kts.

Saturday night...High confidence.

VFR across much of southern New England. Will see low
clouds/stratus likely in IFR/LIFR limits spreading into the
Cape/Islands due to SW flow. Light SW/S winds.

KBOS...High confidence overnight. Moderate confidence on sea
breeze between 15-19Z.

KBDL...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

410 pm update...

high confidence in the forecast.

Fairly persistent weather pattern with a Bermuda high pressure
system off the Atlantic Coast producing southwest flow across the
coastal waters. The high will remain in place over the weekend. This
large area of high pressure is generating some 8 to 10 second swell
from the south that will slowly diminish on Saturday, however the
resulting wave heights are reaching marginal Small Craft Advisory
thresholds mainly across the more exposed southern waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, chance
of thunderstorms.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely,
chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     MAZ005>007-011-013>022.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ002>004-
     008>010-012-026.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ007-
     020>022.
RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     RIZ001>007.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for RIZ006-
     007.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BL/Nash
NEAR TERM...KJC/Nash
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...BL/Nash
MARINE...BL/Nash



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 940 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight. A
cold front approaches from the west on Sunday then slowly
crosses the area Sunday night and Monday. High pressure then
builds over the region into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9:38 PM Update...Stray spotty thunderstorms have been crossing
the St. Lawrence Valley west of Western Aroostook County. Added
a slight chance of a stray thundershower in far western
Aroostook County through mid evening. Otherwise, adjusted temps
mostly to lower temps in cooler central valleys through mid
evening.

A large upper level trof to the north will continue to pull in
a weak high pressure surface ridge into the region tonight.
Vorticity models indicate a vort max moving across the north
through the night, and recent high res QPF models show a SW flow
over the waters and W flow on land. This will bring some
convective showers across the north and help develop a marine
layer offshore. Can’t rule out a possible isolated
thunderstorm in the north in the evening due to high CAPE and
steep lapse rates, though the RAP has much higher values, while
the HRRR is significantly lower. Patchy fog is expected in this
area with the moist soil and low winds. For the south, high
dewpoints and SW flow with the marine layer, could push fog
onshore. In addition, some isolated showers are expected to
develop along the coast.

Not much change is expected for Saturday morning and early
afternoon. 925-850mb temps show a pocket of warm air along
Downeast and the Central Highlands. With the low level jet
increasing WSW winds, this warm airmass will move north, warming
temps into the upper 80s. By the afternoon, high-res models and
vorticity models show a shortwave moving into the area,
bringing rain showers and instability. The 12Z runs indicate the
system is slowing down and not progressing as far south as
previously forecasted. Decided to pull showers and thunderstorms
out of Downeast, and increase chances in the North Woods. In
addition to the showers, the low level jet will increase,
bringing breezy SW winds, especially in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level shortwave will move through the area Saturday
evening. The timing is a bit late in the day for stronger
storms, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are certainly
possible for northern zones. DCAPEs and inverted Vs could be a
concern if storms arrive earlier. Shear looks more than
sufficient. Did keep thunderstorms in the forecast until
midnight. The big story for Sunday will be the heat index with
values above 90 for most of the area except the coast. The heat
index may also prompt advisories for southern Piscataquis and
Penobscot counties. Once again, an upper level shortwave
rotating around a vertically stacked low near James Bay will
arrive in the evening. Northern zones are most likely to be
affected. The late arrival mitigates concerns over strong winds
with thunderstorms, but given the strong bulk shear and expected
SBCAPE, an earlier arrival could result in severe storms.
Instead, the very moist dew points in the mid to upper 60s, PWs
increasing towards 2 inches, a strong LLJ and potential for
training cells draws attention to the potential for heavy
rainfall. At this point, it`s hard to pin down the location more
than the potential. Most guidance points towards northern zones
in the evening, and then possibly shifting south later in the
night. On Monday, the PW max shifts east of the area, but
destabilization is expected ahead of a strong cold front. SBCAPE
and shear both look robust and maintain mention of thunderstorms
through Monday afternoon. Severe storms are a possibility.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front brings drier air and high pressure Monday night
into Wednesday night. Temperatures will become more seasonable.
The next frontal system appears most likely to arrive later
Thursday and have ramped up PoPs for Thursday night. Drier air
returns Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for tonight and Saturday morning. For
tonight, WSW winds decreasing to light winds before midnight. By
Saturday, MVFR/IFR in rain showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon for north terminals. SW winds increase to 5-15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...VFR outside of evening thunderstorms north of
GNR and HUL and a chance of fog at coastal locations such as
Machias and Eastport. Light winds.

Sunday...VFR until late afternoon when thunderstorms are
expected north of GNR and HUL.

Sunday night and Monday...Chance of thunderstorms. Coastal fog
possible for sites from BHB towards Eastport. LLWS possible
Sunday night.

Monday night into Wednesday...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
tonight and Saturday. Visibilities will be low tonight in patchy
marine layer fog.


SHORT TERM: Fog will remain in the forecast for Sunday into
Monday evening. In spite of the stability, winds may approach
SCA criteria Sunday night. Wave heights are a better bet to
eventually reach the 5 ft SCA criteria Sunday night into Tuesday
morning. Expect just one significant wave group from the south
with a period in the 7 to 8 second range.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/MCW
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/MCW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

 1043 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail through the weekend.
Record-challenging high temperatures and oppressive heat index
values may occur Sunday afternoon across the lower terrain and
valleys of Central and Southern PA.

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon
and evening Saturday and Sunday. Looking ahead to next week,
the highest probability of rain is in the Sunday night into
Monday timeframe and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Skies were clear to partly cloudy across the region this
evening. Temps ranged from the comfortable upper 60s across the
highest terrain of the north and west to the 70s in many other
locations. Readings were still in the 80-85F ranged across the
far SE part of the CWA.

Expect to see varying amounts of mainly thin cirrus streaming
east over some patchy low clouds and light valley fog overnight.

Lingering light SW winds will diminish to near calm for the
overnight hours and min temps will range from near 60F across
the northwest to around 70F in the southeast or between +3F and
+10F above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Rising heights (by about 60 decameters) are progged by model
guidance Saturday, leading to a slightly hotter and generally
dry day.

However, a weak and compact shortwave approaching from the Grt
Lks could support a few tstorms in the afternoon and evening,
with the highest POPs across the NW Mtns and Laurel highlands
per the signal in several model suites, including the HRRR, RAP
NAM and GFS. The guidance is split however, with some of it
(such as the GFS) carrying a MCS SEWD and only nipping our SW
zones. Other hi-res guidance indicates a mid-level trough with
a few-svrl Deg C of cooling and better 0-3 km shear on the order
of 20-30 kts.

Can see SPC extending the DY2 MRGL area a bit further east and
over the western 1/3 to 1/2 of our forecast area Sat afternoon
and early evening.

Max temps will trend ~ +2-5F warmer on Saturday vs. today
(Friday):

-mid to upper 80s in the northern/western mtns
-upper 80s to low 90s in the south central ridge/valley region
-low to mid 90s across the middle to lower Susquehanna Valley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasingly warm and muggy conditions are expected Saturday
night and Sunday, when ensemble mean 850mb temps surge to
around 20C ahead of an approaching cold front.

We expect this to support near record highs from the upper 80s
over the Alleghenies to the mid and upper 90s over the Lower
Susquehanna Valley. The combination of heat and rising dewpoints
is expected to produce heat indices topping 100F over the Lower
Susquehanna River Valley. Deep mixing will result in gusty
winds (25 to 35mph) mixing down to the surface as well, so
Sunday will be hot and blustery. The forecast for Sunday
afternoon is an interesting one owing to competing factors. Deep
mixing will likely allow lower dewpoints to mix down to the
surface, and would generally cause temperatures to rise a bit
above expectation. Meanwhile, some guidance indicates there
could be some convective cloud debris drifting across Central PA
Sunday morning, which would serve to temper temperatures. In
summary, this type of set up has the potential to lead to
overperforming temperatures, but morning clouds may limit the
potential. Meanwhile, dewpoints will probably dip a few degrees
below expectation. As a result, maximum heat index values are a
bit uncertain at this point along with the placement of
potential future Heat Advisories.

Sunday night will be the warmest night of the stretch by a good
margin. Lows will only drop a little bit below 80 degrees in the
Lower Susquehanna Valley with 70s on tap for all but the far
northwest. Overnight warmth is often more hazardous than
afternoon heat, so take precautions as necessary.

A cold front will drift southward across central Pa during the
day on Monday. Model trends continue to slow the pace of this
system a little bit. The slower pace of this cold front will
have two primary effects on Monday`s forecast: (1) warmer high
temperatures in the Lower Susquehanna, with potentially a 7th
day in a row with Tmax>90F, and (2) increased potential for
afternoon thunderstorms across the central mountains and
southern Pennsylvania.

Fair and less humid conditions with seasonable temperatures appear
likely Monday night through at least part of Wednesday
associated with high pressure building southeast from the Grt
Lks. However, there remains enough uncertainty with regard to
position of stalled front south of Pa to maintain low POPs over
the southern counties. The aforementioned boundary will likely
lift back north as a warm front by midweek accompanied by an
increasing chance of convection by late Wednesday or Thursday.

There is rather strong model agreement for the passage of a
potent/fairly amplified northern stream trough moving east from
the upper Great Lakes later next week. Increasing upper
diffluence, deep-layer shear and sharp height falls to follow
point twd a few rounds of convection and a decent probability
for some localized SVR TSRA centered on Thursday afternoon and
evening (though a late Wed night/early Thursday morning MCS
can`t be ruled out across the western half of the state.

A few day period of refreshingly cooler/less humid air is likely
to close out next week and will continue at least through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection just about wrapped up across central PA, giving way
to low-mid clouds as VFR conditions prevail with diminishing
winds through the night.

Southwest winds will increase toward 10 knots late Saturday
morning/early afternoon with the best threat of a shower or
storm being across western PA.

High density altitude will be a concern through the weekend with
the building heat.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...CFRONT slowly drops acrs PA, sct/nmrs TS/SHRA with
best chances Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As the heat wave continues, especially across the Middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley, record-challenging temperatures are
expected on Sunday July 24th. Here are the current records:

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 24TH

Altoona (AOO)             95F* (2016)
Bradford (BFD)            87F* (2001)
Harrisburg (MDT)          96F* (1965, 1999, 2001)
State College (STCP1)     100F (1934)
Williamsport (IPT)        96F* (2001)


RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 25TH (Sunday night)

Harrisburg (MDT)          77F* (1965)

*indicates forecast high/low Sunday and Sunday night would tie
 or break the current record

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Banghoff
AVIATION...Guseman/Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Lambert



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

 952 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

No big changes needed to the going forecast this evening. We have
bumped up rain chcs a bit over the SW portion of the area, as the
latest near term models/CAMs indicate better coverage of
showers/storms later tonight.

We have a few spotty showers developing this evening over Srn Lake
Michigan and IL/IN. These are indicative of the nose of the low
level jet starting to strengthen and approach the area from the
SW. We expect more of this scattered nature of showers, and
eventually a few storms embedded. MU CAPEs are currently on the
order of 500-1000 J/kg per the SPC Mesoanalyst page. These values
are forecast to as high as about 2,000 J/kg late tonight after a
few hours of warm and moist advection with the low level jet takes
place.

The latest few runs of the HRRR show that there will be almost a
line of showers and storms come in after 08-09z tonight. This
looks to be the case as the short wave helping to drive the low
level jet comes into the 2,000 J/kg of MU CAPE. The best
concentration will be toward the MI/IN border where even better
instability will be present.

As far as severe weather is concerned, forecast soundings indicate
there will be limited shear availble with the low level jet coming
in, and then relatively weak winds in the mid levels. This should
keep things from becoming too strong. We can not rule out some
decent hail however as mid level lapse rates around around
7.5C/km, and there is decent CAPE in the mid levels and -10 to
-30C layer. As mentioned before, there are some decent DCAPE
 values with good low level lapse rates, and dry mid level air
 present. There will be a sfc inversion that will help to act as a
 buffer to sfc based winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...Potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight...

A weak low level trough moves into the northern zones this evening
and generates some low level convergence. There may be enough lift
there to generate a few showers. Overall little or no instability
will be present in that region at that time...so for now we will
only feature showers. As we go through the night
though...instability builds and another low level wave moves
in...this time a little further south. There is some uncertainty
as to how much shower and thunderstorm coverage develops...but
several high res models are showing scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The main period for thunderstorms will be after
midnight. This is when MU CAPE values top 1000 J/kg. With deep
layer bulk shear values of around 35 knots and DCAPE values over
1000 J/kg...some organized storms with gusty winds appear
possible...mainly to the south of a Muskegon to Jackson line.

...One or more rounds of strong to severe storms possible Saturday
night into Sunday  morning...

A strong mid to upper level wave tracks eastward through the
Canadian Prairies and into Ontario during this period. This leads
to strengthening wind fields in zonal flow across the Upper Plains
and into the Great Lakes region. At the same time a southwesterly
low level jet builds into the region...advecting in a very
unstable airmass. This combination of increasing deep layer shear
and very unstable airmass in place will support strong to severe
thunderstorms for our CWA. Guidance has been showing a 700 mb
trough arriving around 06z Sunday...which looks to be about when
the main risk for severe weather arrives. With pwat values shown
to top 1.75 inches...locally heavy rainfall may occur. There are
some indications that the initial line of storms may lay out a
boundary off to the southwest of the main complex. If this happens
we could see several hours of training cells which would increase
the flood risk.

There is a trend for the associated cold front to hang up over
the CWA Sunday and not resume a southeast push until later in the
morning or early in the afternoon. Based on this the showers and
thunderstorms could still be numerous to start the day with some
potential for organized convection during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

We have one, and possibly two periods of concern for impacts in
this 24 hour forecast period, focused around storms. The first
one will be later tonight, and the possible second one will be
right toward, or just after this forecast period.

We are starting out mostly clear this evening, with winds coming
down off of being a little gusty this afternoon. Most of the night
will remain VFR with no impacts, until about 07z or so. After 07z,
we will see conditions become more favorable for shower and storm
development. At first, showers will be scattered about, with
an isolated storm possible.

The latest short term data is indicating that more widespread
showers and storms will affect the terminals after about 09z. This
even could be a line of showers and storms. This will likely bring
MVFR to IFR conditions for 3-4 hours. KMKG may be on the nrn
fringe, and not see as bad of conditions as other sites further
South.

The showers and storms should move out from West to East from
11-14z or so. Skies should clear out for most of the rest of the
day, until late in the period. We will be watching severe storms
expected to be in Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon/evening, that will
move toward the area as early as mid-evening. This is a bit
uncertain yet, and has the best chance of affecting KMKG and KGRR
before 00z Sun. Have handled this with a VCTS for now. This will
be fine tuned with subsequent TAF issuances.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The pressure gradient tightens up across northern Lake MI as a
wave of low pressure tracks through. This will lead to increasing
winds over the nearshore water for those locations. Big Sable
Point will see the strongest winds in our nearshore waters this
evening as this feature passes through. With a risk for gusts over
20 knots...we will continue the small craft advisory.

Late tonight a risk for several hours of gusty winds exists for
much of the central and southern zones as an area of showers and
thunderstorms pushes off to the east. Several models are showing
gusts topping 20 knots which could lead to hazardous conditions.
We will maintain the small craft advisory for these locations for
later tonight into Saturday. If the winds do increase...so should
the waves. Moderate swim risks are possible to start the day on
Saturday.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ849.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NJJ
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...MJS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 905 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop across Iowa
into northern Illinois late tonight...with some of the storms
potentially reaching as far south as the I-72 corridor. After any
early morning storms come to an end, oppressive heat and humidity
will be noted on Saturday as highs reach the lower to middle 90s
and heat index readings climb well above 100 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Skies are mostly clear across the area with relatively light
winds. Newest CAM runs still showing showers and storms reaching
into the northern parts of the CWA overnight. Current forecast has
a good handle on that, so will not be making any adjustments to
the pops and wx forecast. Dewpoints have increased over the area
this evening, so think overnight lows may not drop as far as
forecasted. So, only adjustment made tonight will be to raise
overnight lows along and north of I-74 by 1-2 degrees. Update will
be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

20z/3pm surface analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal
boundary extending from central Iowa E/SE into the Ohio River
Valley. As a 30-35kt 850mb jet develops from Kansas northeastward
into Iowa after dark, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the boundary across northern Iowa. These cells will
track E/SE and will largely remain north of the KILX CWA tonight.
Only a couple of CAMs suggest convection may develop/track as far
south as I-72 well after midnight. Given the clear northerly
trend, have cut PoPs significantly from previous forecast package,
but may not have gone far enough as central Illinois could remain
completely dry overnight if the consistent HRRR verifies.
Nonetheless think chance PoPs north of I-72 are still prudent late
tonight into Saturday morning. After early morning showers depart,
SW winds gusting 15-20mph will transport higher dewpoint air back
into the area. Given air temperatures expected to reach the lower
to middle 90s and dewpoints climbing above 70, afternoon heat
index values will reach 105 to 110 degrees across the board. The
exception may be across the far NE along/north of a Bloomington to
Danville line where effects from early morning convection to the
north may still be felt. Since confidence for oppressively hot
and humid conditions has grown, decided to expand the Heat
Advisory to include the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The next significant chance for convection will develop late
Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front settles southward into
the region. With SBCAPEs exceeding 3000J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
increasing to 30-35kt, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible along/ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and
evening.

The front will drop southward and stall near the Ohio River Sunday
night into Monday. Several weak waves of low pressure tracking
along the boundary will produce elevated convection north of the
front through Tuesday. Exactly how far north of the baroclinic
zone the showers/thunder will extend remains in question...but it
appears the southern half of the CWA will continue to see rain
chances through Tuesday. Areas along/north of I-72 will likely be
dry.

The next significant short-wave trough and accompanying cold front
will arrive by the middle of the week, once again ramping up rain
chances for Wednesday and Thursday. After that, a deep upper
trough is progged to dig over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes,
finally pushing the boundary well south of Illinois by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Believe VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Skies should be mostly clear at all sites this evening with maybe
a little bit of cirrus. Around midnight, the cirrus will thicken
in advance of a weather complex expected to move just north of
I-74 overnight. Will keep VCTS at PIA and BMI for about 4-5hrs in
the early AM and then just have VCSH at CMI for a few hours. SPI
and DEC should remain dry. The precip will move through quickly
and scattered cirrus will cover the sites and the rest of central
IL tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be south to southwest through
the period with speeds under 10kts tonight and tomorrow morning.
Speeds will increase during the afternoon with gusts around 20kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

 1128 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Surface analysis this evening shows strong high pressure in place
over the southeastern United States. This was resulting in a
continued warm and humid southerly gulf surface flow of air into
Central Indiana. Dew points remained in the middle to upper 60s.
Aloft, water vapor imagery showed mainly NW flow in place. A weak
disturbance was found over nrn IL and southern WI, producing
isolated thunderstorms.

Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column overnight.
HRRR suggests convective development in the next 1-2 hours over IA,
with propagation expected toward Central Indiana late tonight and
early on Saturday morning. Confidence remains low for this
development as GOES16 shows dry and subsidence in place over IA and
only a few passing CU clouds. Across IL, the isolated storms should
remain well north of our forecast area. Thus expect a dry night
overnight. For collaboration purposes, have kept minimal pops
overnight across the northern parts of the forecast area, but again
confidence in that remains quite low. Given the dew points creeping
higher with the lack of mixing, trended overnight lows toward the
lower 70s, not much change from the previous forecast.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Hot and dry weather continues today with only a few passing clouds
as of this afternoon. Satellite water vapor shows that moisture has
been increasing through the atmosphere today and will continue to do
so ahead of an advancing upper short wave. This wave will bring
forcing to the area and a chance of PoPs moving in from the north
starting early tomorrow morning. CAMs are trending towards a later
start to the chance of showers and storms for our area as compared
to previous runs. The later start time seems more probable given the
amount of dry air and subsidence there is to overcome. Precipitation
will continue to be possible for the northern to northeastern half
of the forecast area into tomorrow afternoon as the short wave
progresses eastward. Some uncertainty with this system comes with
how the associated surface low will track... models agree that it
will generally go from northern Illinois towards central Ohio but
some solutions have it staying more over northern Indiana while
others show a track closer to central Indiana. While a subtle
difference, where and how far south into the CWA precipitation
reaches will be dependent on the path the low takes. Given this,
limiting PoPs to chance for now.

Tomorrow is expected to be a little hotter than we`ve seen the
last few days due to WAA as surface flow will be out of the south
to southwest. There will also be moisture advection allowing for
more humid and uncomfortable conditions. For now, not anticipating
the need for a heat advisory tomorrow but it would not be out of
the realm of possibility that counties in south central Indiana
could need it later on. Cloud coverage will increase through the
period but should the clouds stay on the thinner side across the
south or the dew points get higher tomorrow than anticipated, the
likelihood that heat indices get above 105 degrees for that area
will be higher. Winds are expected to gust to around 15 to 20 mph
through the day tomorrow which should allow for at least some
relief for the heat and humidity.

There will be a brief period from Saturday evening to late Saturday
night with no chance of precipitation but the next chance comes at
the tail end of the short term as a stronger system starts to impact
the area.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Highlights:

* Daily rain chances for periods of the extended

* Gradual temperature decrease as a boundary moves through next
  week.

Sunday:

Sunday will be the only day under the influence of a mid level
ridge, as weak WAA helps build heights aloft. The main impact will
be oppressive heat over the region. This in combination with a
subtle moisture return, observed by dew points in the low 70s, will
result in heat index values above 100 across all of central Indiana
including some region in the upper 100s. Confidence is increasing in
high heat, as peak diurnal warming looks uninhibited; however,
will hold off on headlines for now as prior day upstream
confection could impact conditions Sunday morning

One of a few weekend MCSs over the Great Lakes will approach central
Indiana Sunday morning, but the emergence of broad subsidence in the
right exit region of the upper level jet should hinder its
progression, keeping rainfall and associated cloud cover to the
north. Near the surface, a remnant boundary from the aforementioned
MCS will linger over the region, and providing a source of lift for
convection in the evening as the LLJ strengthens, and the EML
inversion decreases. There is still many uncertainties on where this
boundary will be located Sunday evening, thus PoPs have been kept
below 40. Dynamically, there looks to be nothing keeping convection
from organizing, especially as shear increases along the LLJ. This
could lead to severe weather, and will need be monitored in the
coming days.

Monday through Wednesday

Multiple rain/thunderstorm chances will be the main focus for early
next week. A succession of vorticity maximums will be advected into
the region, spurring weak shortwaves through the Ohio Valley. Near
the surface, a quasi-stationary front should be generally over
the region, providing some organized forcing for convection.
Ensemble members are widely spread on convective initiation
timing/location, and therefor the forecast is for low chance PoPs
through this period. As the forecast nears, confidence should
increase, providing more detail on where rain is expected. With
multiple chances of precip, and Pwats above 1.5" throughout the
period, flooding could be of concern in locations that receive
multiple rounds of rain.

Temperatures should decrease slightly with cloud cover increasing
within prior day upstream convective cirrus and present day altocu.
Still the overall airmass will be rather warm; highs in the upper
80s, along with dewpoints near 70.

Thursday and Friday:

By the end of the week, a shift in the pattern is expected.
Ensembles are fairly aligned on a more dominant trough providing
elongated CVA, pushing the overall pattern to the E. A cool push of
NW flow behind this through should progress the boundary southward,
providing relief from the hot conditions for a short stretch. This
also should be a fairly dry period with weak lapse rates below 5km
and no synoptic scale forcing for ascent.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1127 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Impacts:

* VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.
* Very Low Confidence for an Isolated Thunderstorm after 10Z in the
  vicinity of LAF.

Discussion:

Little overall change since the previous discussion.

High pressure southeast of Central Indiana will remain the dominate
feature in Indiana/s weather overnight. Skies were mostly clear
across Central Indiana.

Models suggest thunderstorm development over southern WI/NRN IL
overnight...but the coverage of this has been minimal. Propagation
of this feature should remain well north of the TAF sites, should
storms become more widespread. Confidence for additional TSRA
development overnight remains low as models appear to have timing
and positioning difficulties and minimal development remains
present. Best chances for development remains well north of Central
Indiana along a boundary stretching from Central IA...across NRN IL
to northern Indiana.

On Saturday...a dry column is shown again within the forecast
soundings along with convective temperatures in the upper 90s. Thus
another mostly sunny, hot summer day with VFR conditions and
southerly winds due to the strong surface high to the southeast.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...Puma
Short Term...KH
Long Term...Updike
Aviation...Puma



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

 1103 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

This afternoon`s forecast seems to be on track this evening. With
ample instability in the area, convection was able to initiate this
afternoon in southeastern and east-central Missouri. As anticipated,
this activity died as it lost solar heating. Tonight, a lobe of
vorticity moving into the northern Midwest will help spark
convection over Iowa. A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form
and move along an instability gradient southeast through Illinois.
This track should keep activity just northeast of the CWA as
reflected in the 00z CAM guidance. Slight chance PoPs have been kept
in our northernmost counties to account for any showers or
thunderstorms that may skirt the periphery of the CWA.

Jaja

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Dangerous heat is still expected over the area through early Sunday
evening.  Made no changes to going advisories.

Temperatures are climbing quickly this afternoon under full July
sunshine across the area with 2 pm readings including 100 degrees at
Jefferson City and Columbia amd 98 at Chesterfield.  Most other
locations in the CWA are in the 90s or soon will be.  Latest surface
analysis is complicated, with two fronts, one extending from western
Iowa through northern Missouri into southern Illinois and another
extending from southern Missouri into the Mid South.  The
combination of soil conditions and moisture convergence along the
fronts is causing dewpoints to vary greatly across the area which in
combination with the temperatures, is causing heat indices to also
vary.

HREF as well as the NAM/GFS is showing the center of the upper high
moving east into the Mid South by Sunday.  Temperatures at 850mb will
increase into the 24-27C range which is consistent with going highs
in the 97-104 range on Saturday.   It still looks like a front will
move south into the northern part of the CWA on Sunday as shortwave
trough moves through the Upper Midwest.  While this may bring some
relief to the north part of the CWA, forecast guidance still
supports highs in the upper 90s to 103 south of the front on Sunday.
The combination of the heat and dewpoints will support heat indices
in the 105-110 range both days.

Will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms over the eastern Ozarks
late this afternoon into this evening as CAMS and HREF guidance
still suggests that there will be some development over this area.
Cumulus field has yet to develop and RAP soundings show a cap, so
any thunderstorms should be isolated.  Will continue with a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight as a weak
shortwave moves just north of the CWA.   Better coverage of showers
and thunderstorms will occur with the front Saturday night and
Sunday night as a front moves south into the area.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Ensemble means support the GFS and ECMWF solutions that the upper
high will be suppressed south into the southeastern CONUS by the
middle of next week.  This will occur at the same time that a
shortwave trough will move across the Midwest on Tuesday, followed
by a deeper trough that will drop south into the Great Lakes on
Thursday.  This pattern will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast Monday through Thursday as a quasi-
stationary front will remain somewhere across Missouri and Illinois.
By the end next week, the front may be pushed south of the area in
response to the front deepening over the Great Lakes.

Temperatures are not expected to be as warm next week with the front
in the area and the chance of rain.  There will be some variability
in the temperatures and this is reflected well in the NBM and GEFS
guidance plumes which show a notable spread for summer next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The period should remain dry and VFR for every terminal except KSUS.
Fog is currently impacting this site with visibility down to 6SM. As
humidity increases overnight, visibility is expected to drop to 4SM
before rising again after about 09z. LLWS is possible Saturday
morning near sunrise for KUIN, but it is too marginal to mention in
the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, winds are expected to change to
southwesterly by Saturday and increase in speed, becoming gusty
everywhere except KSUS and KCPS in the afternoon. These gusts should
die as the sun sets.

Jaja

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...IL...&&

$$

WFO LSX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

 837 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The very widely scattered late afternoon convection that Popped
up across the south is done for the night. Updated the grids to
remove the small chance of pops that were added previously. With
the strengthening 500 mb ridge Clarksville was able to reach 102
this afternoon...John Tune 100...and Dickson COOP site 101. BNA
only reached 98. With the ridge getting even stronger tomorrow it
should be a few degrees warmer. Of a slight note...CONShort and
HRRR both show some late afternoon convection possible tomorrow.
Don/t really expect this to play into the high temperature
forecast too much...however if a shower were to fall over an
observing site this could keep the temperature a degree or two
cooler.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

It`s quite toasty outside today thanks to a strengthening H5
ridge overhead, which has kept cloud formation minimal. Ample
sunshine and mixing has allowed temperatures to reach the upper
80s to around 90 on the Plateau, low to mid 90s east of I-65, and
mid 90s to around 100 west of I-65. In fact, Clarksville just hit
100 degrees as of last check, which is the 7th day this year it`s
been in the 100s there. It`s possible Nashville could reach 100
as well, but mixing has not been as strong as in our northwest
counties so it may come up just short.

Upper ridge strengthens a bit more tomorrow so anticipating highs
a degree or two higher than today, with Nashville likely hitting
the century mark and Clarksville getting even higher than that.
Hotter temps plus an increase in dewpoints gives heat indicies
ranging from 102 to 108 west of the Plateau tomorrow afternoon,
so went ahead and issued a heat advisory accordingly. HRRR
suggests an isolated shower or storm could pop up tomorrow
afternoon, but chance seems too low to add a pop into the
forecast. Ridge remains in place on Sunday as well with an
additional increase in low level moisture, so another heat
advisory is likely. However, most guidance indicates isolated
showers and storms will pop up over at least our southern and
eastern counties during the afternoon, which would throw a wrench
in some areas reaching heat advisory criteria - and I held off on
an advisory for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Pattern change begins for us on Monday as the H5 ridge begins to
get squashed to the south, thanks to the polar jet stream
shifting down into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will push a
weak boundary southward towards the midstate Monday into Tuesday.
Moisture pooling ahead of the boundary with bring PWATs up to over
the 2 inch mark, especially over our north, and anticipate some
scattered showers and storms to pop up both days with highest pops
over the north and lowest south. NBM precip chances seem a bit on
the high side and have undercut them slightly. Forecast soundings
show moderate MLCAPE, ample DCAPE, and weak shear, so a few
strong storms with wet microbursts are possible both days. Cloud
cover and precip will knock highs down several degrees Monday and
Tuesday, but it`s possible guidance is overdoing this "cooldown"
due to the strength of the upper ridge, and I went a little above
NBM numbers. Upper ridge shifts further southward from Wednesday
onward with the aforementioned boundary shifting closer to or into
Middle Tennessee. This will keep fairly high daily pops going the
rest of the forecast period. However, it will remain toasty with
plenty of humidity and highs staying well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the taf period. There
is a chance CSV/MQY/CKV could see a brief period of IFR/MVFR fog
near dawn. An isolated shower or storm could impact a terminal
late Saturday afternoon, but chances are too small to include the
mention of VCTS. Winds will generally be out of the south at 5 kts
or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74 100  77  99 /   0  10   0  10
Clarksville    72 101  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     68  91  70  90 /   0  10  10  10
Columbia       72  98  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
Cookeville     71  95  73  94 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      68  92  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   72  97  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   72  99  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
Waverly        72 101  75  99 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......12
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Reagan



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The upper ridge will continue to build over the Quad State region
through Saturday and linger through Sunday. Sunday night a storm
system moving through Ontario and the Great Lakes will attempt to
suppress the ridge a bit. At the surface, southwest winds will be
the rule through Sunday and then a cold front will attempt to move
southward into the region Sunday night.

There will be no changes to the Heat Advisory for the weekend.
Dewpoints are once again climbing into the middle 70s over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, well above what any
guidance expected. This is good for the somewhat marginal Advisory
today, but could be a sign of more intense heat over the weekend,
if the same trend holds.

The GFS and ECMWF ensembles are not indicating significant moist
anomalies in the low-levels as we saw on Wednesday and earlier in
July, so confidence is not great in the mid to upper 70 dewpoints
developing again Saturday or Sunday. However, with the cold front
approaching on Sunday it would make some sense for dewpoints to
pool over our region.

We stuck very close to the NBM temperatures and dewpoints through
Sunday night, which generally represents the worst case heat and
humidity. This puts heat indices across the entire region
comfortably into Heat Advisory territory Saturday and even takes
the KCGI to KMDH corridor over 110 on Sunday. We certainly cannot
rule out an upgrade for portions of the region Saturday or
especially Sunday. However, for now there will be no changes to
the heat headlines.

The 18Z HRRR has backed off on the potential for some showers or
storms to move southeast into southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois this evening. However, prior runs and a few other members
of the 12Z HREF did push a few convective elements into our area.
Decided to keep the slight chance PoPs and even lingered them a
bit longer into the evening and deeper into the area.

The consensus of guidance keeps the cold front and any associated
convection north of the Quad State Sunday afternoon, but later
Sunday night the front or convective outflow will likely reach at
least the I-64 corridor, so we have 20-40% PoPs from south to
north across the region mainly overnight. The flow will remain
weak, so severe storms are not anticipated. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary threats.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The medium range models continue to indicate that as two main lobes
of energy aloft near the Canadian border move through the pattern
during the extended forecast period, mid level height falls will
impress themselves on the flat ridge that has taken up residence
over the southern half of the CONUS. One such wave will affect the
PAH forecast area on Mon as a surface frontal boundary sinks
southward, stalls Mon night, and begins to move northward on Tue.
The front is expected to be the main lifting mechanism for shower
and tstm development in the moist and unstable airmass across our
region Mon, first in the northern half of the region, then will move
progressively farther south through Mon night. An impulse in the mid
level flow on Tue should keep shower and tstm activity fairly common
at least through midday, possibly waning during the afternoon hours
as the front moves north and clears our region. Overall, the best
PoPs with this system will be in the eastern parts of the region and
the least PoPs will be in southeastern MO where the frontal boundary
will be more diffuse.

After a bit of a lull Tue night and Wed, with isolated to scattered
PoPs, limited tstm coverage, and limited QPF, the next system in the
form of a mid level wave and another surface front will ramp up the
chances of pcpn again for late in the week. Model consensus
suggested at least 50% PoPs starting in the northernmost tier of
counties late Wed night and spreading areawide on Thu, especially in
the afternoon. Tstm coverage should taper off Thu night, followed by
an overall diminishment of showers and tstms Fri as the surface wind
shift to the north will be well underway.

At this time, we are not seeing a signal for the surface dewpoints
to get out of the lower 70s. Therefore, while peak temps are
expected to be somewhat cooler in the extended, with the exception
of Wed, heat indices may creep up above 100 degrees in the southern
half of the region Mon through Thu afternoons (especially true in
parts of southeastern MO where temps will tend to be the warmest).
Wed may yield heat indices of 105+ mainly in the western half of the
region. Lows should remain in the lower 70s, except perhaps upper
60s in the northern third of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

No cigs or vsby restrictions are forecast. However, there is a
chance of some mvfr vsbys in haze or fog late at night. This is what
occurred last night, but slightly stronger winds tonight should tend
to limit fog or haze. A few diurnal cumulus clouds with bases above
4k feet agl are expected from midday into late afternoon. Winds will
be southwest, up to 10 kt in the afternoon hours and nearly calm
late at night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075-080-081-084-085-
     088-089-092-093.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-090-091-094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ004.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     KYZ001>003-005>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Portland OR

 243 PM PDT Fri Jul 22 2022


.SYNOPSIS...Aside from patchy drizzle along the coast, expect mild
and dry conditions through this weekend. An extended stretch of hot
weather will grip the region next week.


&&


.DISCUSSION...Through next Friday...Tonight, the OTH-GEG pressure
difference is forecast by the NAM, GFS, and RAP to remain +7mb to
+9mb, though it`s also forecast to weaken throughout the night. This
will again support a marine push, though all guidance is pointing to
a shallower layer compared with last night. A slight chance for
drizzle has been added along parts of the coast tonight, given (1)
forecast soundings are suggesting negative omega coinciding with a
shallow layer of instability within the ~1.5-2kft layer and (2) it`s
only a slight chance, which means the probability it won`t occur is
4 times higher than the likelihood it will. Given the stratus is
expected to be less deep tomorrow morning, surface heating will burn
it off a little sooner allowing for more efficient boundary layer
warming. Highs will therefore rebound a little into the upper 70s to
low 80s inland Saturday (warmest in the southern Valley), but with a
weak upper trough passing to our north across Washington 500hPa
heights remain in the mid 580s dam across NW Oregon and SW
Washington.

Heights begins to gradually rise Sunday, but the area remains in the
saddle point between two upper level ridges - one to our northwest
and another to our southeast - until Tuesday when those two features
connect and the mean of the ensemble guidance brings 500hPa heights
to above 5920m. By late Wednesday, more than 20 (40%) of the EPS`s
members and more than 40% of the CMCE`s members bring 500hPa heights
to more than 594dam (2 sigma above the climatology for this time of
year) to areas south of Salem in our CWA, which supports the notion
that Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days in the
forecast. However, the GEFS remains much cooler overall, and less
than 10% of its members suggest such an anomalously deep atmospheric
column in NW Oregon. Still, the mean in the ensemble yields surface
high temperatures in the mid 90s through Saturday, which adds to our
confidence in a prolonged, area-wide stretch of temperatures 10+
degrees above climatology.

NBM`s spread has decreased slightly over the past 24 hours. Now, it
yields less than a 10% probability for high temperatures less than
90F at PDX Wednesday through Friday, but greater than a 30% chance
for highs over 100F on each of the same days. It will be difficult
to get temperatures more than a degree or two above 100F anywhere in
our CWA any day next week given the surface pattern, which is
characterized by a thermally induced trough extending northward
across the Willamette Valley and into south Washington, favors
onshore flow. It seems reasonable that the likelihood for triple
digits will increase throughout the week as this onshore flow
promotes increasing dewpoints and thus increasing nocturnal low
temperatures, which would serve as a better spring board off of
which solar heating will warm the surface each day. This lack of
overnight cooling, which will be most pronounced in urbanized areas
due to the urban heat island effect, will be most problematic for
those without AC who are counting on relief to come in the early
morning hours. Record overnight lows are in the upper 60s for this
time of year, and our forecast features mid 60s for most locations,
with considerable uncertainty; the NBM gives around a 30% for 70+
degree lows on both Thursday and Friday mornings.

Though no particular day stands out as extreme in terms of heat,
it`s going to be a prolonged stretch of hot weather, so we want to
emphasize the need for folks to be careful. Stay in an air-
conditioned place as much as possible, drink plenty of water, check
on your neighbors, and look after your pets and little ones. Never
leave a child, disabled person, or pet in a hot vehicle.

One thing of note: The deterministic GFS, in its 06z and 12z runs,
suggests a dynamic shortwave to impact the Pacific Northwest
Thursday night, which could theoretically spark some convection over
the Cascades, where NBM (during the same time period) has a 7%
chance for thunder. Though it would be imprudent to trust a specific
deterministic model in the long-range when it is so well outnumbered
by other members of the ensemble suite which suggest a different
outcome (i.e., no thunder and no QPF), we will be paying attention
to both the GFS and other ensemble guidance as it pertains to
convective potential during the extended period as new iterations of
guidance come in. -Bumgardner

&&


.AVIATION...00Z TAFs: At 20Z visible satellite imagery showed the
marine stratus and stratocumulus gradually thinning. MVFR
conditions continue along the coast and will likely persist
through Saturday morning. High-resolution model data suggests
the south Washington and north Oregon coastal areas will likely
remain MVFR through the 18Z Saturday. There is a chance that cigs
could briefly rise just above MVFR thresholds late this afternoon
through mid-evening.

Cigs 030-040 to continue over much of the interior lowlands
through early Friday evening. Coverage area diminishes through the
remainder of the evening. However, expect areas of marine stratus
to return after 06Z Saturday, especially along the Columbia
River. The marine layer Saturday morning should not be as deep or
extensive compared to this morning. Areas of MVFR to persist
through about 19Z, mainly along the Columbia River and the lower
slopes of the south Washington and north Oregon Cascade foothills.

For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to:
https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end VFR at the terminal and vicinity as
of 20Z. Local stratus break-out program suggests dissipation to
SCT clouds will not occur until around 23Z. VFR to prevail from
00Z Saturday through about 10Z. Expect MVFR cigs to return late
Friday night and persist until 18Z Saturday. Weishaar

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature over
the waters for the next several days. This will result in a
typical northwest to north wind pattern through early next week.
The thermally-induced surface trough over the north California and
south Oregon waters will strengthen Saturday afternoon and then
expand a little more north Saturday night through Sunday. Model
guidance suggests 20-25 kt boundary layer wind speeds over the
waters south of Cascade Head beginning mid to late Saturday
afternoon. These speeds eventually spread into the northern outer
waters by 00Z Sunday. Will issue various small craft advisories
with this package, primarily for wind. Advisory conditions can be
expected to persist through 07Z Sunday for the southern inner
waters and to 12Z Sunday for all outer waters.

Wind speeds gradually start to diminish late Sunday night and fall
below advisory thresholds Monday. Will likely need another round
of small craft advisories Sunday afternoon through Monday morning,
especially for the outer waters. Overall general wind speeds fall
to 10 kt or lower late Monday night or Tuesday morning and remain
there through late in the week.

Seas will be primarily wind-driven with a fresh swell component.
Guidance shows wave heights generally in the 4 to 6 ft range at
least through early next week. There is a high probability that
seas will reach 7 ft over the south zones Saturday afternoon
through Monday. Forecast wave periods of 7 to 8 seconds will
result in steep and choppy conditions. Even though wind speeds are
expected to fall below advisory criteria late Sunday night or
Monday, seas of 6-8 ft at 6-8 seconds will create dangerous
conditions for smaller craft necessitating the need for continued
or new advisories. Weishaar

For information about upcoming marine zone changes, go
online to: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/marinezone

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Saturday

     for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to midnight PDT Saturday

     night for Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR
     out 10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10
     to 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

&&


$$

www.weather.gov/portland

Interact with us via social media:
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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

 757 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022


.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Southeast flow today led to thunderstorms building towards the
west coast through the afternoon, with a few strong storms
developing along sea breeze and outflow boundaries. One report was
received of severe winds in Pinellas County as well as a few small
hail reports during the afternoon.

A line of thunderstorms is still moving northwest through the
Nature Coast and Tampa Bay area along the sea breeze collision,
and a few isolated storms are lingering inland south of the
Interstate 4 corridor. HRRR is showing some lingering convection
possible through around midnight, then mostly rain free conditions
will hold through the morning. No significant forecast changes
are planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Thunderstorms will clear out during the next couple of hours, with
VFR conditions holding through Saturday morning. Another round of
thunderstorms are expected by mid to late Saturday afternoon, with
periods of reduced flight categories possible at area terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Southeast flow will continue for the next few days with a turn
onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon. No headlines are
expected, though winds and seas will be higher in thunderstorms,
which are expected over the waters later in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jul 22 2022

No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day. No significant fog is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  95  79  94 /  50  60  20  60
FMY  77  94  77  94 /  50  70  20  60
GIF  77  96  76  94 /  40  50  10  60
SRQ  75  93  75  93 /  50  60  20  60
BKV  73  94  73  94 /  30  50  20  60
SPG  79  93  79  92 /  50  60  20  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER....Carlisle