Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/19/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1154 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
00Z APX sounding has an MlCape in single digits. Our airmass isn`t
moist enough (yet) for deep convection. That isn`t true upstream.
Some showers were cooked off south of Munising mid-afternoon, but
these fell apart as they moved se toward and over northern Lake
MI. A few spots in far western Chip/Mack Cos may have had a few
raindrops. Some residual cloud cover is over nw lower MI.
Some clusters of convection continue to fire in part of northern
WI and western upper MI. This activity is moving se/sse, and is
not our direct concern. Our convection of concern is just north
of the MN arrowhead and over Isle Royale. This activity will
develop se-ward toward central/eastern upper MI and nw/n central
lower MI as the night proceeds. This will occur as the low level
jet veers with time, finally bringing a plume of MuCape into the
area. MuCape values will rise to around 1500j/kg. We should have a
somewhat favorable environment for deep convection to dive toward
the forecast area. It should be weakening when it gets here,
since it will be so late that the low level jet will be
weakening.
Main axis of convection seems most likely from the Keweenaw, to
roughly Alger/S`craft Cos in upper MI, to Beaver Isl and
Charlevoix Co. Any impact in this forecast area looks to be after
3-4am (though would not rule out earlier isolated cells). Hail and
straight-line winds will be the main threat, for storms that are
only slightly elevated.
Min temps tonight quite warm, mid 60s to around 70s.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...Severe Thunderstorms Tonight?...
High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder, maybe severe overnight.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast/Concerns...High pressure, centered over
the Tennessee valley, has extended its reach into N Lower and E Upper
today. Low pressure in North Dakota has a warm front that extends
ENE into the Boundary Waters region of Minnesota, where
thunderstorms are forming and dying along, currently. This evening,
Another round of convection is expected to fire along the warm
front, and extend from N Minnesota to W Upper across Lake Michigan.
The convection is expected to move across N Lake Michigan around
09z/Tue, and enter NW Lower and NC Lower. The major models
(GFS/ECMWF) and the HRRR and ARW models have this. The FV3 has the
convection moving over E Upper and then into NE Lower and into
Canada by 12z/Tue. The NAM is weaker, but the NAMNest is similar to
the ARW/HRRR idea.
So the expectation is for the convection to make it into NW Lower,
by sunrise, and move through the forecast area by 15z/Tue.
So the next question is will it be severe? It`s possible. The GFS
has a 30 knot LLJ at 950 mb over GLR and TVC which would help the
forcing of the more than likely elevated convection. The Showalter
Index shows -3c to -4c values, which shows the decent thermo profile
(MUCAPES around 1800J/kg) for the convection. So if the LLJ can tap
that instability, thunder does have the potential for wind gusts
(DCAPE is 1130J/kg).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...Very Warm with Increasing Shower and Storm Chances...
High Impact Weather Potential...Severe storms are possible.
Any ongoing convection from a possible MCS is expected to exit the
area during the morning hours. Still questions about how much
lingering cloud cover there will be during the day which could
affect the extent of diurnal heating and subsequent amount of
instability. At this point am banking on there being enough breaks
in the clouds to allow for highs in the 80s to low 90s. This could
lead to a popup storm or two in the afternoon and evening (aided by
a possible lake breeze off of Lake Huron). More widespread showers
and storms are then expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday from
a short wave evident on water vapor imagery across the Pacific
Northwest moving into the region. Severe storms are possible as the
left front quad of a 90 knot jet streak approaches. The main severe
weather threat is damaging wind gusts with 0-6 km bulk shear of 40
to 50 knots (large hail is also a possibility). Humidity levels will
be high with dewpoints of well into the 60s expected. Lows Tuesday
night in the muggy mid 60s to around 70. Highs Wednesday ranging
from the mid 70s north to the upper 80s southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...Seasonably Warm but not as Humid...
High Impact Weather Potential...Low for now.
Zonal flow to start off the period, followed by slowly building
heights into the first half of the weekend. Another trough then
follows for Sunday. So overall very low pops into the day on
Saturday followed by chances for showers and storms Saturday night
and Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be near normal late July
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
SHRA/TSRA possible late tonight into Tue morning.
High pressure is in the OH/TN Valley, while a cold front is north
of Lk Superior. Increasing wsw flow between these features will
increase moisture and instability tonight. Showers/TSRA will have
a better chance of developing se-ward into northern MI as the
night proceeds. PLN/TVC/MBL will have increasing chances of precip
late overnight (after 07-08Z), with brief MVFR conditions (or
worse) possible. That lingers into morning. In the afternoon/early
evening, some TSRA could redevelop in ne lower MI, impacting APN.
Sw winds increasing, becoming somewhat gusty Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Tonight through Wednesday...Winds generally overnight will be
variable at 10 knots (Lake Michigan would probably have SW winds as
the return flow begins) as the sfc high moves to the east. Although
thunderstorms could be producing squalls to 30-35 knots or higher, if
they become severe. Tuesday, low pressure will move toward the
region, and southerly flow is expected out ahead of the low. The
winds over lake Michigan will get into small craft criteria by late
Tuesday afternoon and will continue into Tuesday evening, spreading
eastward. Lake Huron may see the small craft criteria gusts Tuesday
night, and Wednesday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JSL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
904 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
** MESOSCALE UPDATE DISCUSSION **
As of 02 UTC, new, and rapidly-intensifying storms are forming
west of Williston, on the leading edge of greater forcing aloft
and just north of the surface triple point. The downstream air
mass is characterized by increasingly-rich low-level moisture,
with the storms beginning to impinge on an axis of lower 70s F
dewpoints that extend from northern ND into far northeastern MT.
This is generating strong to extreme bouyancy, albeit with some
residual inhibition, with MUCAPE upwards of 4500 J/kg. Strong wind
fields are in place with deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt, and low-
level hodographs possess enough curvature and size to support up
to 200 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH. Thus all severe hazards are possible,
but the tornado risk may be somewhat mitigated if storms are not
fully surface-based owing to residual inhibition. On the other
hand, that inhibition could maintain semi-discrete supercells,
which would bolster the risk of large to very large hail given the
deep-layer shear and favorable lapse rates and bouyancy. Finally,
the strong wind fields including 0-3-km bulk shear of 30-40 kt
and DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will favor damaging wind risk,
especially if bowing segments develop, which could be the case if
cold pools expand sufficiently to overcome residual capping. The
main uncertainty with this scenario remains focused on convective
coverage, especially with southward extent, owing to that capping.
Even areas along the U.S. Highway 2 corridor may maintain some
degree of capping as the upstream convection approaches. Further
south yet, the 00 UTC Bismarck RAOB sampled considerable CIN for
boundary-layer based parcels, so the high-based convection south
and east of Bismarck is not realizing the full potential of the
bouyancy profile. It has occasionally strengthened, but the
severe-storm threat with those cells is lower.
CJS
UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Quick update to expire the Heat Advisory at 9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT.
UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 for basically the
northern two tiers of counties in northwest and north central
North Dakota plus McKenzie county.
UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Decided to go ahead and extend the Heat Advisory until 02z with
plenty of stations still seeing heat index values in the 100 to
105 degree range.
The other challenge tonight will be approaching severe
thunderstorms coming from northeastern Montana. These storms
should continue to become better organized as they approach
northwest North Dakota in the next one to three hours. Very large
hail up to two inches in diameter are possible with any of these
storms that can stay discrete (one cell northwest near Poplar
Montana continues to try and develop ahead of the main line of
storms further west). However, it appears upscale growth into an
MCS or multiple line segments/bows will start the transition to a
wind threat rather quickly. A brief tornado also can`t be ruled
out with either storm mode as the low level jet starts to kick
in. By the time this MCS reaches northwest North Dakota, the
environment will be favorable for severe wind gusts to 75 mph
given large DCAPE, strong 0-3km bulk shear, and strong BRN shear
per RAP mesoanalysis trends. These storms will likely continue
through the night across the northern third of the state.
For this update, the main change was to tweak the precipitation
chances to better account for storm timing/radar observations and
to extend the Heat Advisory. Otherwise, just blended in the latest
observations to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Forecast highlights in the short term period will be the warm and
humid conditions today and strong to severe thunderstorm chances
later today into tonight.
Currently, upper ridge axis extending north/northeast across the
Dakotas this afternoon, with a developing sfc low over the lee of
the Montana rockies and another low over the Black Hills. Sfc
trough extends from southwest ND to northeast ND as evident in sfc
wind obs. Persistent band of mid to upper level clouds, associated
with a mid level wave, has been over southwest ND into east
central ND for much of the day, and has wrecked havoc on the
daytime temperature forecast. No signs of this eroding, so went
ahead and lowered highs for today by several degrees for those
locations impacted by the cloud cover. Still very humid with sfc
dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s most areas. Have opted
to leave the heat advisory as is with this product issuance as
even despite the clouds, we will still approach and exceed 100F
heat index over most areas this afternoon.
A few CAMs still indicate that we may see a few storms south
central and east into the James River Valley this afternoon or
early evening. High CAPE here along with modest shear, so an
isolated severe storm remains possible if any convection can fire
up. As of 19Z there are a few towering CU just northeast of the
Black Hills moving northeast, so perhaps this is what we will get
in a few hours.
The main threat remains over northwest and north central North
Dakota later today through this evening, and perhaps for a few
hours overnight. The strong/compact mid level low will be over
north central MT by 00Z, then developing into far northwest ND by
around 06Z. As forcing aloft approaches and interacts with an
eastward moving cold front, expecting to see discrete storm
development with large to very large hail a threat given straight
hodographs, and also a severe wind threat with high DCAPE and as
0-3km wind shear increases. RAP and HRRR sfc low placement and
forecast wind fields put the frontal triple point across
northeast MT and northwest ND this evening, so this area will see
the max forcing for potentially high end severe storms. A tornado
or two will be possible as well given the low level wind shear
projected and the potential strength of any updrafts.
Discrete cells are then expected to congeal into one or two
segments as they march across northern ND late in the evening and
overnight. Steep lapse rates will maintain a large hail threat, in
addition to the severe wind gust potential. Would expect a severe
weather watch to be issued at some point over the next few to
several hours. How far south the severe threat goes is in
question.
In the wake of the cold front, gusty northwest winds will develop
west into central after midnight. There may be an hour or two
period along to immediately behind the cold front where we may see
stronger winds with gusts to 40-45 knots.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
The long term begins with the strong mid level over northwest
North Dakota, and its associated sfc low across the Red River
Valley. Gusty west/northwest winds will develop quickly from west
to east Tuesday morning as the boundary layer starts to mix. The
gusty winds will then continue through the day Tuesday before
slowly winding down west to east Tuesday night. Gradient forcing
isn`t overly impressive, but there is a good unidirectional wind
profile so decent momentum transfer is expected. In addition,
scattered wrap around showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast for much of the day Tuesday, so potential is there for
this activity to mix down an occasional isolated strong wind gust
most anywhere. More favorable location for the stronger winds and
future wind headlines is still over the higher terrain of the
southwest, though may need headlines over a broader area to cover
the mix down potential. Will let the midnight shift issue any
possibly wind headlines as we focus for now on the heat and severe
potential today and tonight. Behind the cold front, much drier
and cooler air will push into the region for Tuesday, with
dewpoint temperatures in the 50s and highs in the 70s and 80s.
A slow warming trend and mainly dry weather can then be expected
through Friday with a west/northwest flow aloft in place across
the Northern Plains. There may be a few embedded waves moving
through the flow aloft, which could bring some precipitation to
our area, more so towards the end of the work week. Ensembles and
NBM remain in somewhat agreement with more defined wave moving
across the region this coming weekend, which would bring our next
best chance for widespread precipitation and thunderstorm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
VFR conditions should prevail for most areas through the period.
Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from west to
east and mainly across the northern third of the state tonight,
possibly impacting KISN and KMOT. Some of these storms could
become severe with very large hail up to two inches in diameter
and damaging wind gusts to 75 mph. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible if any of the heavier storm cores move overhead. Storms
should diminish from west to east overnight, but a few more
showers are likely north and central on Tuesday. Strong northwest
winds will start to develop by late Tuesday morning and last
through the afternoon, with the highest gusts up to 45 mph. The
strongest winds on Tuesday will be across the south.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...CJS
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH
See previous forecast discussion below.
400 PM Update:
Heading into a fairly active late afternoon to mid evening period as
current radar mosaic shows some heavier showers and a few lightning
strikes across northern CT and portions of western RI. Air mass
remains tropical with dewpoints commonly in the low to mid 70s; but
warm frontal cloudiness still remains across a large portion of SNE.
Portions of Hartford, Tolland Counties in CT and Washington
Counties in RI are trying to destabilize further but anvil
cirrus is limiting this to an extent. CAPE values for a 100-mb
averaged parcel (MLCAPE) is only around 500-1000 J/kg in
northern CT per SPC`s mesoanalysis page. However an expanding
risk for strong- severe appears possible as those values rise to
1000-1500 J/kg through 00z/8pm. Mid-level wind fields have
begun to strengthen per Dopper wind profiler data from OKX and
ENX radars. While gusty winds capable of localized straight line
wind damage still is the greatest risk, the low LCL heights and
lengthening hodographs due to the strengthening winds through
850-500 mb could support a short-lived rotation/brief tornado
risk. Indeed, several of these showers/a few t-storms that have
moved into northern CT and part of southern RI have shown some
broad rotation but couplets have not been necessarily focused
and tight. We also need to be cognizant that storms have
potential to produce torrential downpours; as rains have been
more stratiform, think any hydro issues would be mostly centered
over the
Utilized a blend of the 18z HRRR and 12z NAM-3km for PoP/Wx which
focuses the greatest thunder risk to northern CT, western MA and
southern RI at least until 10 PM. Mainly moderate showers across
eastern MA and the Cape/Islands, but some risk for isolated thunder
could exist into Boston-Providence area after 10 pm as cool front
moves eastward and offshore overnight.
Dewpoints may come down slightly post-frontal but still expecting a
muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:
Tuesday through Tuesday Night:
Tuesday is setting up to the first of a couple of hot days,
with westerly flow and broad cyclonic flow aloft. Unlike today
where cloud cover has prevailed, we are looking at a mostly
clear to partly sunny day. Translates to both several hours of
heating but also dewpoints that should mix lower in the
afternoon as taps into drier air aloft. A few models simulate
convection across northern New England which could slip into
northern MA; but given drier air aloft, mixing lower dewpoints
(and by "lower", still in the low-mid 60s which still is fairly
sticky) as well as westerly non-convergent flow, opted for a dry
forecast for now. Highs in the mid 80s to the lower to middle
90s. Westerly gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range.
For Tuesday night, initially mostly clear skies after any diurnal cu
diminishes. RH cross sections for the overnight show increasing mid
to high clouds from the NW but anticipating generally dry weather.
Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Heat and Humidity build in for a prolonged period of 90F+ high
temperatures.
* Strongest signal for another round of widespread convection looks
to come Thursday.
* Given severe weather potential today, the forecast beyond 12Z
Friday was populated with the NBM. Please refer to previous AFD
for more detail.
Wednesday...
There is increasing confidence that Wednesday may feature the
hottest weather of the week, as 925 mb temperatures surge to 27-28C
across much of the CWA as a result of persistent southwest flow.
Little relief is to be felt in regards to a breeze, even with deep
mixing to about 800mb, as both 925mb and 850mb winds linger below 15
kt. Dewpoints also continue to flirt with oppressive levels in the
upper 60s and low 70s. To account for the tremendous heat signal at
925mb, 90th percentile NBM guidance was blended with the NBM to
increase daytime highs by a few degrees. Overall, temperatures will
be in the low 90s, with temperatures reaching into the mid and even
upper 90s across metro-west and the Connecticut River Valley.
Lows overnight will be limited by dewpoints in the upper 60s and
70s.
Thursday...
Heat persists and humidity continues to build Thursday as dewpoints
surge into the mid 70s. A shortwave and cold front associated with
low pressure passing to our north over Quebec look to pass through
our area on Thursday afternoon. Increasing clouds ahead of the front
may look to limit daytime heating compared to Wednesday, with high
temperatures expected to be about 2-3F cooler. With the
shortwave/cold front looking to provide the lift needed to
initiation convection, several severe weather parameters look to be
in line to generate convection between 12Z and 00Z with MUCAPE
exceeding 2000J/kg ahead of the front. Extremely moist PWATs, at
about 160% of normal, aided by dewpoints in the low and mid 70s,
combined with generous instability causes K indicies to surge in
excess of 40 (typically, our area will see thunderstorms with K
indices around 30). Shear also looks to be moderately healthy,
exceeding 40 kts across portions of our area. One limiting factor in
regards to severe weather on Thursday will be poor mid level lapse
rates, which seem to linger between 5 and 6C/km for much of the day.
A second limiting factor will be a strong capping inversion that
looks to be in place on Thursday morning. This inversion looks to
mix out by mid afternoon, but if this process is delayed, it may
have an effect on the timing and potency of convection.
One other thing to note is that a low level jet looks to develop
across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands Thursday afternoon,
with 925mb winds between 40 and 45 kt. With high winds across the
Cape and the Waters, small craft advisories will likely be
considered for the period. After the capping inversion erodes by mid
afternoon, pre-frontal mixing is expected to be deep, to about
800mb, it is likely that SW winds will be quite gusty across the
Cape and Islands during the afternoon hours.
Unlike much of the Spring, mid level dry air does NOT look like it
will inhibit convection, however, there looks to be a layer of dry
air at around 500 mb, which, combined with lackluster lapse rates,
may limit tremendous height growth of updrafts. Nonetheless,
convection is likely ahead of and along the front on Thursday
afternoon/evening. SPC has caught on to the severe weather risk on
Thursday as well, placing us in the 15% risk category.
Beyond Thursday Night...
Given the risk of severe weather in our CWA
this afternoon, NBM was used to populate the forecast after 12Z
Friday. Dewpoints look to dip to more comfortable levels post
frontal passage on Friday, but will build back into the mid and
upper 60s by the end of the weekend. Please refer to previous AFD
for more detailed discussion.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
Still appears greatest risk for TSRA in the 00-04z timeframe
across western/central MA into northern CT, with some risk for
weakening TSRA into the BOS-PVD corridor 00-02z. MVFR-LIFR to
continue until improvement with frontal passage 04-08z,
bringing a wind shift from SW to W. Longest period of degraded
conditions likely at FMH, HYA and ACK.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: High confidence.
VFR. W winds around 8-12 kt with gusts 20-25 kt.
KBOS...Moderate confidence in TAF. Mainly SHRA before 22z, then
risk for embedded TSRA after 22z. Overall lesser TSRA risk than
across interior New Eng.
KBDL...Moderate confidence in TAF. Better chance for TSRA, some
strong in the 19-00z window, may linger until 02z.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
SCAs continue through Tuesday due to gusty SW winds and seas 4-7
ft. In addition, given SW winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range, a
Rip Currents statement is in effect on Tuesday for especially
the south- facing beaches on Nantucket.
Tonight: High confidence.
S/SSW gusts 25-30 kt peaking tonight. Patchy fog and low clouds
today into tonight until the front passes through.
Tuesday: High confidence.
SW/WSW 20-25 kt gusts especially early, then diminishing to
around 15-20 kt by afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft, highest southern
offshore waters.
Tuesday Night: High confidence.
WSW winds decrease to 10-15 kt, with seas also lowering to 3-5
ft.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231-236-250-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KS
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Gaucher
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Loconto/KS
MARINE...Loconto/KS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1023 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Continuing to watch and wait as storms begin to percolate over
eastern North Dakota. Low-level jet continues to strengthen over
central South Dakota into the Red River Valley and northwest
Minnesota. Additional storms have recently developed just north of
the border into Ontario.
There are two focus areas for storms over the next 3 to 6 hours.
The first will be over the Arrowhead. The storms in Ontario are on
a southeastward trajectory and may affect northern St. Louis,
Lake, and Cook counties.
The other area will be closer to the LLJ as it continues to
strengthen over the next few hours. The storms in eastern North
Dakota appear to be forming in a region of convergence and
diffluence as the southerly branch of the LLJ moves out of South
Dakota into North Dakota. Winds farther north and east veer
southeasterly as they move into the southern Red River Valley.
Those storms, should they persist, will likely move into north-
central Minnesota in the 1 AM to 4 AM timeframe.
Effective shear continues to support organized convection,
particularly with the Ontario storms. The storms in eastern North
Dakota have a greater potential to evolve into a forward-
propagating QLCS with time. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
will remain the primary threat from the storms overnight. 0-3 km
bulk shear and steep low-level lapse rates over northern Minnesota
may be able to support a few brief and weak tornadoes, provided
the storms in eastern North Dakota evolve into a QLCS. Locally
heavy rain will remain a concern, especially if the storm motions
shift orthogonal to the 850 mb FGEN.
MESOSCALE UPDATE Issued at 748 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
MLCIN has increased over northwest Wisconsin over the past 2
hours which has tapered convection along the lake breeze. A few
isolated storms are still possible, but overall quieter trend
should continue during the next 4 to 6 hours.
Attention shifts to northern Minnesota into Ontario. A persistent
TCu field was noted on GOES-East Day Cloud Phase imagery
stretching from near Cloquet to near Roseau, along the nose of a
developing 850 mb LLJ. Additional towers were found southwest of
that boundary. There was a congested area of showers from around
Park Rapids to Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls which were steadily
moving eastward.
The main area of concern over between now and 10 PM will be the
potential for storms in the area of convergence on the nose of the
LLJ as it strengthens. 850 mb FGEN was maximized about 10 to 20
miles south of the TCu on satellite and will likely strengthen and
shift north with time. Meanwhile an shortwave trough will move
eastward out of North Dakota and Manitoba resulting in height
falls and broad scale forcing for ascent. Effective bulk shear
over northern Minnesota was in the 40 to 50 knot range per the 00Z
SPC RAP mesoanalysis. Hodographs are forecast to lengthen and
develop cyclonic curvature in the low-levels over the next 6 hours
in that area. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a very limited
risk of tornadoes seems to be the main concern. Heavy rainfall is
possible as well as the steering flow is roughly parallel to the
850 mb FGEN.
MESOSCALE UPDATE Issued at 458 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Storms continue to fire in northwest Wisconsin along the lake
breeze boundary. SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates an uncapped area
of MLCAPE of 2000 to a little more than 2500 J/kg. Storm motions
are generally southeasterly at 20 mph, which raises slight
concerns of heavy rainfall given the slow movement. Effective
bulk shear of 30 to 35 knots is featured over that area, too,
which is helping to maintain storms. The dominant storm between
Glidden and Mercer is on the Bunkers right-moving supercell vector
and has exhibited a weak mid-level meso in the last 15 minutes.
Downdraft CAPE per the RAP analysis features a minimum where
storms are currently located, which may reflect more of the
convective working of the column than an actual decrease in DCAPE.
Outside of the minimum area, DCAPE ranges from better than 1400
J/kg north of Green Bay along the WI/MI border to around 1100 J/kg
over Douglas County. Think a marginal wind and severe hail risk
will persist in that area over the next several hours as storms
continue to fire along the lake breeze and, perhaps eventually,
the outflow boundaries from earlier convection.
The other area of concern is over northwest Ontario. Low-level
convergence seems to be maximized from southern portions of Lake
Winnipeg in Manitoba to near Atikokan, ON per radar and GOES-East
Day Cloud Phase imagery. High-resolution models feature this area
for storm initiation this afternoon with storms propagating
southeastward into northern Minnesota by the 7 to 8 PM timeframe.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Summary: Showers and storms, some severe, will be possible this
evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot weather will
also continue into Tuesday with slightly less hot weather from
Wednesday onward.
It`s shaping up to be an interesting evening with some
thunderstorms in the forecast. A CAPE gradient exists across the
Arrowhead down into northwest Wisconsin in far eastern Price
County. A few storms have already popped up in northwest
Wisconsin and are just starting to pop up across the Arrowhead.
Models seem to have only a fair handle on things this afternoon,
and weak synoptic forcing is a likely culprit. Some pre-existing
clouds from earlier convection persisting across the Arrowhead are
likely limiting convective potential there, but also contributing
to a warm frontal boundary where storms will likely fire over the
next one to three hours. There is a pretty favorable environment
for storms to grow if they can initiate, with favorable
instability (up to 3k-4k J/kg SBCAPE), up to 40-50 kt 0-6 km
shear, and favorable low-level shear that could support a tornado
if storms remain single-cell. Large hail (up to ping-pong ball
size or golf ball size) and damaging winds up to around 70 mph
will be the main threats.
While instability will decrease tonight after the initial round of
storms, there will still be plenty of low-level warm air advection
with frontogenesis occurring around the International Border.
Persistent thunderstorms may develop along the front, with some
training possible due to westerly mid-level flow quasi-parallel
to the northwest-to-southeast oriented front. If frontogenesis
occurs a bit further south than currently expected, places along
the border may have a chance at seeing some heavy rain and perhaps
some localized flooding issues. With PWAT values around or a bit
greater than 1.5", there is plenty of moisture to produce some
high rainfall totals if all other factors line up.
On Tuesday, a low pressure system will approach from the
northwest. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected, and
unlike this evening, may be a bit more organized as they will be
attached to fairly well-organized frontal passages. A couple
thousand J/kg of CAPE and decent wind shear to around 30-40 kt
could result in some scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and gusty winds. Heavy rain will be possible as well with PWATs
remaining above 1.5". A cold front will pass through during
evening and effectively end convective processes behind it.
Going into Wednesday, some lingering showers and possibly storms
will be possible with remnants of the upper level trough remaining
over the region with warm northwest flow. Weak ridging and
northwest flow will persist for the rest of the week, resulting in
drier weather overall. Additional rain chances may return next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Predominant VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Thunderstorms may develop late this evening and overnight in the
vicinity of KINL or KHIB with a brief period of MVFR conditions.
Due to the uncertainty of timing and/or distribution, have put in
VCTS groups for now. LLWS is likely tonight with a strengthening
low level jet, ending by 14Z. Gusty southerly winds are expected
to develop Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will move through
the area during the late afternoon. Additional showers and storms
will develop after 19Z Tuesday, and have included VCTS groups for
now, but a period of MVFR ceilings is expected with any storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Winds will become more northeasterly this evening. While they are
generally expected to remain light tonight, gusty and erratic
winds are expected in and around thunderstorms that are expected
this evening. Storms may be strong to severe with large hail,
strong winds, and frequent cloud-to-water lightning. On Tuesday,
northeasterly winds are expected to increase ahead of an incoming
cold front. Some gusts up to 20 to 25 knots and wave heights up to
2 to 4 feet will be possible during the daylight hours. With some
uncertainty remaining on how strong winds may become, headlines
have not been issued for this update. However, Small Craft
Advisories may be needed for many of the nearshore waters.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 66 82 60 81 / 20 50 50 40
INL 66 83 61 81 / 50 80 80 30
BRD 72 88 64 84 / 30 30 40 10
HYR 70 89 60 81 / 10 40 50 50
ASX 66 89 60 81 / 20 50 60 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE UPDATE...Huyck
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...JDS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1011 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
I am still on the page that suggest no convection in our CWA
through sunrise Tuesday. This is based on where the best mid level
warm advection is, the latest RAP low level jet location over
time, the best upper divergence associated with the jet left
entrance region, corfidi vectors, and the 850 to 300 mb
thickness. All of this tells me the convection will largely
continue to develop ahead of the cold front trailing the low over
eastern Canada and that will drop across northern Lake Huron
overnight. Meanwhile the incoming system`s warm advection push
will develop other convection just west of the cold front
convection. These will merge during the early morning hours had
head across NE lower Michigan northern and central Lake Huron.
Of course it would not be out of the question a few stray storms
would track into our northern CWA around sunrise but they would be
running into a hostel informant (air to dry and marginal at best
instability). So whatever storms could do that they would be
dissipating. I did not increase the pop for the early morning
hours in our grids as a consequence of my thinking on this.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...Marginal Severe Weather Risk late Tonight/Tuesday Night...
Model agreement and run to run consistency remains good for the
vigorous, closed 500 mb low moving east along the U.S./Canada
border through Wednesday. For tonight, convection forming in an
area of warm advection/isentropic ascent across Minnesota will
progress east into the western U.P of Michigan and northern
Wisconsin along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, then
continue southeast into northern Lower Michigan after midnight.
The storms should weaken as they move further south into a dry
and stable atmosphere with forecast soundings showing warm mid
level temperatures persisting under upper ridging.
The ridging continues on Tuesday with another round of convection
Tuesday night developing in an area of low level convergence
ahead of the surface cold front. Once again, a capping inversion
is present and lowers the risk of widespread severe storms,
though it slowly erodes by 12Z Wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms potentially flaring up during the morning and
afternoon across eastern Lower Michigan.
...Rain Chances over the Weekend into Next Week...
There is a signal for some drought-easing rain/convection over
the weekend as the subtropical ridge begins to be flattened and
shunted off to the southwest by an upper longwave trough becoming
established across the northeast quarter of the CONUS. The
amplification to this flow regime could see a period of MCS
activity on Saturday and Sunday and/or a surface low moving along
a baroclinic zone late in the weekend into early next week that
could bring more widespread and heavier rain amounts than have
occurred over the past several weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
The short story is nearly clear skies into Tuesday evening. Winds
are from the northwest mostly at this time but should very soon
shift to the southwest or even south southwest late tonight. Winds
will at the surface will stay below 10 knots overnight but will be
in the 15 to 20 knot range between 1000 feet AGL and 5000 ft agl
overnight. As the incoming frontal system and unseasonably deep
surface low approaches the area from the west Tuesday winds will
begin to become gusty to mid to late afternoon.
As for any convective threat, I am going with the idea that the
convection over northern Wisconsin is related to jet entrance
region lift and a quasi stationary front near the Lake Superior
shore area. The front should not move much overnight actually, so
it is more or less stationary. That convection will keep try to
move south southeast based on the 850 to 300 mb thickness but will
also new cells will keep redeveloping on the upstream side of the
mid level inflow. Even so since the jet core is moving east, so
will the area of convection. Slowly the area of convection should
shift to the east southeast over time. The storms should be over
northeast Lower Michigan, mostly north and east of HTL. Our TAF
sites are far enough south that the upper ridge and associate
subsidence should keep this area mostly clear for the most part
(through Tuesday afternoon).
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Conditions will become hazardous to small craft on Lake Michigan
on Tuesday as south winds increase to 25 knots and build waves
over 4 feet by Tuesday night. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach
Hazard Statement will be needed. Conditions will begin to improve
on Thursday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...WDM
MARINE...Ostuno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1134 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Much-needed rains are expected today with pockets of heavy
rainfall and potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. A
cold front crosses early Tuesday, with more shower and storm
potential during the afternoon. High pressure moves overhead
Wednesday, with another low pressure approaching from the Great
Lakes Thursday bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and mainly dry conditions will then return
for Friday through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 PM Update...Only minor updates to the forecast, mainly
refreshing the suite with latest hires data. At this hour...
radar shows training showers over the mountains and toward the
international border with convective showers advancing west-to-
east across New Hampshire into Maine... ahead of the cold front
currently crossing the Hudson River Valley. Will continue to see
pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms, along with a low-end tornado threat given the
very strong helicity, through the coming couple hours.
750 PM Update...Impressive warm season satellite picture of a
low pressure system pivoting towards New England this evening.
Rainfall: Warm sector is lifting through New England, with
heavy rain precip shield now exiting NH and combing across ME.
Impressive precip rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour have been
measured, perhaps close to 3 inches for a brief period of time
in stronger cells. Greatest amounts have fallen across the White
Mountains where orographic lift and convergence along a
boundary have brought persistent moderate rainfall rates. So
far, up to 2 inches have fallen in that region. There was also a
strong storm that tracked through far east-central NH into
southern ME that produced torrential rainfall.
Thunder: has been fairly absent, mainly due to how shallow
cells have been and higher freezing lvls. That said, additional
instability within the warm sector will be moving in over the
next 3 to 5 hours that will bear watching with good shear and
low LCLs across the region remaining in place. Updraft helicity
paths on short term guidance eye up now through 6z as most
likely to see potentially stronger storms or showers with some
rotation possible. This comes on the heel of a region of 200-300
0-1 and 0-3km helicity tracking through Maine as the evening
goes on. So there is still uncertainty how much convection can
take place after sunset, if it is elevated, and how much of the
remaining helicity can be used.
So, remains a gusty wind and heavy rain/hydroplaning threat.
Will be watching the Whites for continued training rain/flooding
threat. Showers/storms in the Northeast have exhibited some
rotation in the low levels through the afternoon and evening,
but shear has overpowered updrafts such that they have been
sheared before gaining respectable depth. This is still apparent
on radar with large precip trails ahead of the main cell some
30 to 40 miles upwind. Will continue to monitor convection
upstream as it tracks towards central New England through
midnight.
Previous Discussion...
Precipitation shield associated with an advancing warm front has
overspread all of New Hampshire into far western Maine and will
continue to spread northeastward as low pressure tracks into the St
Lawrence Valley this evening. South of the warm front convection has
blossomed from northern New Jersey into south west New England
with several storms exhibiting rotation and approaching severe
thresholds. This warm sector is expected to move into the
southern half of New Hampshire into extreme SW Maine over the
next couple of hours. The environment within the warm sector
will be characterized by dew points in the low to mid 70s
contributing to around 1500 J/kg of CAPE. In addition,
effective shear will increase to 40 to 50 kts and CAMs continue
to show clockwise turning hodographs becoming elongated this
evening with impressive low level helicity.
Ample cloud cover and poor mid level lapse rates will work against
robust convection and CAMs are bit messy with no clear trend towards
increased or decreased potential for strong to severe storms. Thus,
forecast thinking has not changed much with potential for isolated
to multi cells clusters that due form in the warm sector to exhibit
rotation and the potential for strong to damaging winds across the
southern half of NH and SW Maine from late this afternoon through
this evening. SPC has continued a Marginal risk across much of NH
into western Maine with a Slight risk across SW New Hampshire.
Within portions of the Marginal and all of the Slight risk SPC shows
2 to 5 percent tornado probs, which seem reasonable given the low
level helicity. The last couple runs of the HRRR have also started
to show some linear structures forming ahead and along a cold front
that will approach SW NH around 9-10 PM tonight with these linear
structure showing signs of weakening as they track across southern
NH through midnight. The severe threat will diminish after midnight
tonight while chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
overnight.
On the hydrological side there also has not been much changes to
forecast thinking with potential for rainfall rates to approach one
inch per hour and a modest signal for some training. WPC`s excessive
rainfall outlook continues to put the entire forecast area in a
Marginal risk for flash flooding, which continues to seem
reasonable. One hour flash flood guidance across much of the
area is well over 2 inches and 3 hour flash flood guidance is
generally in the range of 2.5 to 4 inches. With the exception
for some training the overall flash flood threat seems low
except for ponding of water in poor drainage areas. That said,
will need to monitor the potential for training this evening
through tonight as multiple cells that can produce 1 inch per
hour rates that due track over the same area will increase the
flash flood threat. Current QPF forecast has 0.75 to 1.25 inches
along and south of the foothills with potential for some areas
to come in with much lower amounts. In the mountains QPF ranges
from 1.5 to 2.25 inches with potential for higher amounts
exceeding 3 inches in the White Mountains. North of the
mountains amounts range from 1.25 to 1.75 inches.
The brunt of the rainfall will push east of New Hampshire shortly
after midnight and push east of Maine zones around 3 am. As the
surface low tracks towards Atlantic Canada Tuesday morning upslope
flow will maintain chances for showers in and north of the mountains
into Tuesday morning. It will be a warm and very humid night with
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s with similar dew points. This will
allow for areas of fog tonight as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to exit to the northeast Tuesday.
Aloft a secondary short wave will approach from the NW acting to
steepen lapse rates. Bufkit profiles show favorable mixing with
momentum transfer around 25 to 30 kts at the top of the mixed
layer. This will lead to gusty a day with westerly winds gusting
25 to 30 mph. It will also be a very warm day with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s south of the mountains with little
reprieve along the coast as steady offshore winds will inhibit
the sea breeze. Humidity will also be on the uncomfortable side
with dew points starting in the upper 60s to low 70s and only
dropping into the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. These
dewpoints combined with strong surface heating will allow for
CAPE to climb to around 1500 j/kg and close to 2000 J/kg across
northern areas.
The approaching short wave will have an associated cold front
that will bring the threat for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Model soundings are quite impressive with
inverted-V profiles and steep low to mid level lapse rates along
with effective shear around 30 kts. Thus, the environment will
be favorable for strong to severe storms with both hail and
gusty winds a threat. However, the overall signal from CAMs show
very little coverage if any storm due initiate. SPC has placed
far northern areas and the mountains in a Marginal risk for
severe storms as the terrain will likely aid in triggering
convection. Have held off on enhance wording in the forecast due
to the limited coverage.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday night as a shortwave moves across the region. High pressure
will then begin to build into the region on Wednesday, allowing for
dry conditions and very warm temperatures. There will then be an
increasing chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday as a closed low moving over Quebec sends a warm front
across the area. Mainly dry conditions will then return for Friday
through the weekend, although a few mostly diurnally driven showers
cannot be ruled out.
Impacts: A lingering strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
on Tuesday evening, especially across northern and eastern
locations. Heat indices may approach the middle 90s on both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Forecast Details: A negatively tilted upper level trough will be
beginning to exit the area to the east on Tuesday evening, with
lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms across the north and
eastern locations. Forecast soundings from the latest CAMs indicate
that there will likely be up to around 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE, 700-500
mb lapse rates in excess of 6C/KM, and 30 kts of 0-6km shear present
during the early evening, and therefore a strong to locally severe
storm cannot be ruled out through the evening hours. Given a strong
LLJ, gusty to locally damaging winds would be the primary threat
with any stronger storms. Severe potential and PoPs will then
quickly fade by around 10 pm as the trough moves east of the area
and we lose daytime instability.
Heights will then begin to rise on Wednesday ahead of a ridge to our
west. It will be a very warm and mostly sunny day with highs ranging
from the upper 70s across the mountains to the lower and middle 90s
along and south of the I-95 corridor. To make matters worse, dew
points will be well into the 60s, which will make it feel a couple
of degrees warmer. Clouds will then begin to increase on Wednesday
night as a warm front approaches from the south ahead of a closed
surface low over Quebec. The best chance for an overnight shower
will be across the north and mountains where better forcing will be
present but much of the area will likely remain dry through the
overnight hours. It will be another uncomfortably warm and muggy
night with some southern urban areas likely not falling below 70
degrees.
There will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday as we sit in the warm sector of the low to our north. Skies
will be partly to mostly cloudy, which should limit surface mixing
some and hence limit highs some to the upper 80s across much of
interior western ME to the lower 90s in southern NH. While it is
still several days out, forecast soundings are somewhat favorable
for the potential of strong to locally severe storms and this will
therefore need to be watched over the coming days. Showers and
thunderstorms will then end from west to east on Thursday night
as a cold front clears the coast. Mainly dry conditions will
then prevail for Friday through the weekend, although we will
still be sitting under broad upper level troughing and this
combined with daytime heating may spark a few diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Shower chances then
once again look to increase again early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Periods of heavy rain with embedded TSRA, low cigs,
and fog will bring IFR to LIFR conditions this evening through
tonight.
Southerly winds will prevail through the evening, perhaps
turning gusty along the immediate coast and for southern
terminals later this evening. With gusts diminishing overnight,
a period of LLWS is expected at least for southern and eastern
terminals... on the order of 35-45 kts out of the SSW.
A cold front crosses Tuesday morning with winds turning westerly
and conditions improving to VFR by mid morning. VFR prevails
through Tuesday afternoon although widely scattered afternoon
TSRA are possible and will bring restrictions if a TSRA crosses
a TAF site.
Long Term...Lingering SHRA/TSRA on Tuesday evening will result
in brief pockets MVFR/IFR restrictions, especially across
northern and eastern terminals. VFR conditions will then prevail
on Wednesday before shower and storm chances increase again on
Thursday in association with a passing front. Mainly VFR
conditions are then expected on Friday and Saturday outside of
any SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions are expected tonight into Tuesday
morning as southerly winds gust 25 to 30 kts. Southerly winds
will bring building seas greater than 5 ft that will persist
until Tuesday evening outside of Casco Bay. Southerly winds
shift to the southwest Tuesday morning and will drop below 25
kts while elevated seas will continue the SCA through Tuesday
evening.
Long Term...Winds and seas will fall below SCA criteria Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the waters.
Southerly winds may gust up to 25 kts on Thursday ahead of an
approaching warm front. Winds and seas will then begin to
subside on Friday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ153.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey/Cornwell
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Tubbs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
905 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure over south FL with
weak troughing over NC to central AL. Between these features,
southwest to south flow prevails below 850 mb. Further aloft in
the mid levels, a trough is over the FL panhandle to nrn AL.
Moisture is fairly high in the area with PWATs at about 1.8 to
2.1 inches and dewpoints are in the mid 70s.
Only isolated showers and thunderstorms over the region at this
time. Main activity at this time is over Echols county which
should slowly weaken over the next 1-2 hours while moving east at
about 15 mph. Otherwise, based on agreement in the HRRR and HREF
guidance, anticipate a resurgence of isolated to possibly
scattered showers and potential storms moving in off the Gulf of
Mexico in the moist low level convergent flow from late tonight
and early Tuesday morning over inland northeast FL. The main
updates were to adjust POPs for this evening based on latest radar
data.
.MARINE...
The JAX 00z sounding, JAX vad wind profile, sfc data, and model
guidance suggests an uptick in winds from the south and southwest
tonight so tweaked up a bit rest of tonight. This required
including an SCEC headline for the offshore waters for 15-20 kt
winds.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [749 PM EDT]...
.Near Term.../through Tonight/...
High pressure will be centered to the southeast through Tonight. A
500mb short wave is moving across the area this afternoon, helping
to aid in convective development. The organized line of convection
which has moved to the east was on the leading edge of this wave.
Additional convection is expected behind this line, but will
be more isolated to scattered in coverage. Interior SE GA did not
receive as much activity this morning into early afternoon, so
coverage should be greatest there through the remainder of this
afternoon. Much of this activity will dissipate by midnight with
the loss of day time heating.
Lows will be around seasonal levels.
.Short Term.../Tuesday through Friday/...
Surface high pressure will be southeast of the region this period. A
500mb trough axis will be just west of the area through Tuesday
night, then over area Wednesday. The combination of diurnal heating,
ample moisture, and additional instability from upper trough will
result in above seasonal coverage of convection.
The upper trough will lift to the northeast Thursday into Friday, as
high pressure at the surface builds across area from center to the
east southeast. The surface ridging in the area, will limit the
convective coverage somewhat later this week, with activity more
isolated to scattered in coverage.
Temperatures this period will trend a little above normal.
.Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/...
A high pressure ridge will extend across central FL from a center to
the southeast Friday night into Saturday, as a stalled trough lays
northeast to southwest across SE GA. The combination of convergence
along the trough, ample moisture and diurnal heating will lead to
above average chances for convection into Saturday.
The trough breaks down later in the weekend, as the high builds more
toward the east southeast. Convection on Sunday will be driven
largely by diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. Therefore,
greatest chances will be over the central portion of the forecast
area.
The high will build further to the east on Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Subsidence from the ridge will help
to minimize convective chances. The east coast sea breeze should be
dominant Monday, which will have best convective chances further
inland.
Temperatures will trend near seasonal levels this period.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]
Showers and storms ending earlier than last night and just have
VCSH for SGJ and SSI this evening. Otherwise, VFR ceilings
expected to prevail tonight but some chance of flight restrictions
for vsby and ceilings for GNV and VQQ tonight based on the recent
rainfall and latest guidance. Due to the uncertainty, just included
TEMPO MVFR for this potential after 06Z. An early start to convection
is likely again on Tuesday as activity generally moves west to
east, first affecting GNV and then the rest of the TAFs. Started
VCSH at GNV close to sunrise, and then late morning and aftn for
the rest of the TAFs. Included TEMPO TSRA for GNV where highest
chance of convection are expected, but PROB30 TSRA groups for rest
of the TAFs. Winds will be light southwest 5-10 kt tonight, settling
down a bit overnight. Winds expected to become breezy from the
southwest about 8-13 kt on Tuesday.
.Marine...
High pressure will be southeast of the region this week. The high
will be centered more to the east over the weekend.
Rip Currents: SE GA: Moderate Today, Low Tuesday
NE FL: Moderate through Tuesday
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 92 74 92 74 / 20 50 10 50 0
SSI 78 92 78 91 78 / 20 40 20 40 10
JAX 75 93 75 94 75 / 30 40 20 50 10
SGJ 76 93 76 93 75 / 30 40 20 50 10
GNV 74 92 74 92 73 / 20 70 40 60 10
OCF 75 92 74 92 74 / 20 70 30 50 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
654 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
The CAMs, ECM and the RAP continue to show isolated thunderstorms
this evening. The latest model runs suggest the Cheyenne divide
would be the most favored location for storm development and this is
consistent with a surge of hot dry west winds moving through that
area this afternoon. Moisture aloft is good with PWAT around 1.3-1.4
inches and winds aloft weak, 20-30kt at h500-300mb. The 20-30% h850-
700mb shown in the RAP and the HRRR wind gust product suggest gusty
winds are likely and the RAP sounding near Ogallala would suggest
more- the potential for damaging wind gusts. The RAP models shows
the CAPE, less than 1000 J/KG, forming at the top of the mixed layer-
500mb.
The forecast this evening is guarded with isolated dry thunderstorms
and gusty winds.
The deterministic models are cooler and windier Tuesday. The
prospect of 100s across swrn Nebraska appears low at this point. The
short term model blend plus bias correction was the basis for highs
in the upper 80s northwest to upper 90s southwest. This forecast is
slightly cooler than the guidance blend and the NBM 50th percentile.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
There is not much change in the extended forecast today. An upper
level ridge of high pressure centered over NM will drift very
slowly west and be located over AZ Thursday. The ridge will then
build north and east through KS next weekend. The models suggest
another major heat wave could develop across Nebraska Saturday,
followed by a back door cold front Sunday. The models suggest
h700mb temperatures peak around 17C Saturday, slightly cooler than
what was predicted today.
The GFS, which has shown the best skill predicting heat waves,
indicates highs in the 90s and low 100s Thursday and Friday, then
cooler Saturday. The forecast leans toward the slower ECM which
maintains the heat through Saturday.
Rain chances are just isolated through Friday. Chances POPs are in
place Saturday night. It is important to note WPC suggests less than
1/10th on inch of rainfall across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. This is
consistent with the GFS and ECM which show just isolated rain totals
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
convection approaching OGA is expected to dissipate prior to
arriving into the LBF airspace. Strong southerly winds are likely
to continue overnight with gradual veering to the northwest behind
an approaching frontal boundary by Tuesday morning. Cannot rule
out some LLWS at LBF though the greatest potential for this should
remain confined to VTN. Gusty afternoon winds are likely Tuesday
with peak speeds nearing 25 to 30 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Little or no rainfall is expected across western and north central
Nebraska during the next 7 days.
Critical or near critical fire weather conditions are underway this
afternoon across parts of western Nebraska. There is a chance for
isolated dry thunderstorms across western Nebraska this evening.
Gusty winds will likely accompany the thunderstorms.
A strong cold front will move through the region tonight. Very dry
air and strong northwest winds Tuesday will lead to critical fire
weather conditions across the Sandhills and parts of the Panhandle.
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across western Nebraska
Wednesday through Saturday. The concern is humidity below 20
percent. Wind speeds during this time are generally expected to
remain light at speeds of less than 15 mph.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ210.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ206.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
926 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A few spotty showers remain this evening across northeast TN and
southwest VA. Last few runs of the HRRR have shown additional
isolated showers, and perhaps a storm, developing to our west
across middle TN and then moving into the area overnight. This
additional development is in response to the upper trough axis
swinging into and across the area.
Areas that saw rain today will likely see patchy fog overnight
but there is uncertainty on how widespread it will be due to
current cloud cover. Will send new zones to get rid of afternoon
wording and will update HWO to remove strong storm wording.
SR
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Showers and storms have mostly exited our area. A mix of VFR and
MVFR conditions can be expected over the next few hours as clouds
thin from the earlier showers. Then, mostly VFR conditions are
expected until late tonight/early tomorrow morning when MVFR and
near IFR conditions are expected due to low CIGs. It`s hard to
tell how widespread fog will be due to the remaining cloud cover
and light winds but do expect some areas of patchy fog with MVFR
visibilities. Also, a few isolated showers and storms are
possible overnight at CHA.
VFR conditions will return at all sites by late morning/early
afternoon. Addition isolated showers and storms are expected
tomorrow afternoon through evening.
SR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 747 PM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight and Tuesday)...
Key Messages:
1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening with more isolated to scattered coverage focused on southern
areas on Tuesday.
2. Isolated damaging wind gusts and localized flooding remain of
concern through the evening hours.
3. Temperatures will be fairly close to normal with milder
conditions expected on Tuesday.
This Evening/Tonight
Currently early this afternoon, a mid/upper shortwave is centered
near the Ohio River Valley with a weak surface front. A downstream
jet is also noted from Ohio into the Great Lakes. These features are
the focus in the near-term period with upper divergence and strong
southerly flow at and below 850mb supporting continued convection
that is already ongoing in western areas. These features continue to
advance towards the region with the consensus remaining that the
frontal boundary will wash out to our west. Nevertheless, numerous
convection will continue through much of the evening hours with a
gradual decrease overnight. Deep-layer shear of 20+ kts is notable
for this time of year, but thermodynamics in the mid-levels do seem
to be an inhibiting factor. Overall instability is fairly marginal
at generally near 1,000 J/kg. With the somewhat organized/linear
nature of some cells, locally damaging wind gusts remain of concern.
Additionally, with PWATs of near 1.7" and fairly uni-directional
flow throughout much of the layer, there remains a concern for
locally heavy rainfall largely via training convection. Luckily,
many areas haven`t been too wet in recent days, but there are
certainly some localized places with lower flash flood guidance.
Given all of these factors, similar messaging will be kept to be
focused on the early portions of the overnight hours.
Tuesday
During the day on Tuesday, the shortwave trough will be nearly
centered with our region, and better moisture will be focused closer
to Georgia and southwest North Carolina. Overall, dynamics/forcing
for convection will largely be to our south and east. However, lapse
rates may end up being slightly better than today due to the height
falls with a focus more on southern areas where these values and
moisture look to be better. With the limited upper support and
comparable instability in these areas, mainly isolated to scattered
coverage is expected. With the troughing remaining in place,
temperatures will still be warm but fairly mild for this time of
year.
BW
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
Key Messages:
1. Another hot spell in store for the coming weekend.
2. "Cold" front moves through Wed night into Thu for increased
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise typical summertime
trends with regards to rain chances through Friday.
Discussion:
The big story for the long term period will be the strong ridge
building across the southern US Friday into the weekend, sending
high temperatures back into the upper 90s for most locations on
Saturday and Sunday.
Before we get to the weekend however, shortwave troughing will be
lingering over the southern Appalachians Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will be kicked off to the east coast on Wednesday by
a stronger upper low that will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Wed. This feature will push a cold front into the forecast area
Wed night into Thu. Locally, the presence of the upper trough, as
well as isentropic ascent ahead of that cold front, will keep some
chances for showers and even some thunderstorms in the forecast Tue
night through Wed. Limited it to chance levels, which may be
generous, as brief upper ridging will lie between the exiting upper
trough and the low moving into the Great Lakes. This should work to
suppress convection a tad, but think there will be some convection
present on Wed. Better rain chances exist on Thu with the passage of
the front, with widespread convection likely.
As the front pushes further into the southeast US the low will be
lifting out into New England. There was some concern it may stall
just to our south, allowing for more rain chances on Friday. But
this seems to be the outlier scenario now and have a dry forecast in
on Friday. As the upper low lifts into New England, a western ridge
centered over the Four Corners region will begin to expand
in earnest across the I-40 corridor from Texas through Tennessee.
By Sat morning most guidance has a strong, albeit relatively flat,
upper ridge centered over the Tennessee valley. The eastward
expansion of the ridge on Friday will push highs back into the low
to mid 90s throughout much of the lower elevations of east TN, but
expect areas in the vicinity of the I-40 corridor and points south
to see upper 90s for both Saturday and Sunday as the ridge peaks
overhead.
Have dry conditions on Saturday with the ridge overhead, but Sunday
through Monday present an opportunity for some MCS activity to make
it in from the NNW. Flat ridging, even with H5 heights of 594 dam or
more, will leave a chance for convection to fire along the H85
thermal gradient from Nebraska eastward through the Ohio river
valley. The GFS is more bullish on rain chances than the ECMWF but
hard to ignore that even the stronger ridge on the ECMWF doesn`t
suppress convection completely.
CD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 87 72 93 75 / 50 40 30 30 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 71 91 74 / 40 20 20 30 50
Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 71 91 73 / 40 20 20 30 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 88 70 / 60 30 10 30 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
551 PM PDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture is moving northward from Southern
California into Central California. With mid-level moisture and
instability present, we have a slight chance of thunderstorms for
southeastern Monterey County and the southern portion of San
Benito County. In addition, the monsoonal moisture will bring an
increase in mid level clouds today and Tuesday. Very slight
cooling trend this week with continued warm to hot conditions
across the interior. Potential for sneaker waves and dangerous rip
currents this afternoon through Wednesday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 03:15 PM PDT Monday...As discussed in the
morning update, monsoonal moisture moving into Central CA has
introduced some thunderstorm activity in our CWA. Thus far, we`ve
had one thunderstorm in SE Monterey County (about 30 miles SE of
King City) that did produce a couple of lightning strikes. This
line of convection continues to move northward and it looks like
another cell is developing in southern San Benito County. On
satellite, there`s some rotation hugging the San Luis Obispo
coastline and that is feeding the convection into our region.
Currently, radar is showing a diminishing trend with the current
convective showers, but we have extra eyes on shift right now in
case additional cells pop up.
Mid level moisture and instability looks to linger in those areas
of SE Monterey and S San Benito counties through about 8 pm
tonight. The HRRR shows that there could be a few intermittent cells
that pop up between now and then, but they should be brief. The
hi-res NAM is indicating that the convective line in SE Monterey
County moving into southern San Benito County will persist through
around 5 pm. Have kept the mention of thunderstorms through 8 pm
tonight to cover both models.
So could we get thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon as well? Not
very likely. Hi-res models along with the regular NAM show that
the instability and moisture will be better aligned in the Central
Valley and eastward into Nevada.
Besides thunderstorms, the synoptic pattern over our CWA won`t be
changing a whole lot this week. Our region will still be
influenced by the high pressure over the desert SW while a cut off
low spins out over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. That low is
forecast to nudge closer to the coastline towards the end of the
week which will allow for a slight cooling trend. In general,
expect warm to hot conditions across the interior (peaking in the mid
90s to low 100s) while areas closer to the coast are more normal from
mid 60s right along the coast then ranging up to 70s into the 80s
around the SF and Monterey Bay shorelines. Should only see slight
fluctuations in those temperatures through the week, but no
significant swings on the thermometer...just very gradual cooling.
To learn more about the Beach Hazards expected through midweek,
please refer to the Beaches section below.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:30 PM PDT Monday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR.
Upper level clouds moving up from Southern California have
reached the Monterey Bay. Associated convection has eased
significantly with no lightning detected for the last couple of
hours. Moderate west to northwesterly winds will persist through
this evening becoming light and variable overnight. The exception
remains, KAPC and KSTS that will remain light out of the
south to southwest. Stratus will return to the coast and high
confidence of IFR cigs to KSNS, KMRY and medium confidence of IFR
cigs at KOAK. Clearing will be around 16-17z Tuesday morning.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Moderate and locally gusty northwesterly
winds around 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will persist through this
evening. Winds will diminish overnight becoming light and variable
with the exception of KSFO that will remain steady around 8-10 kt
at KSFO through the morning. Marine layer remains shallow, so low
chance of stratus intrusion overnight for KSFO and higher chances
for KOAK with borderline MVFR/IFR cigs. If they do form over
KOAK, clearing would be around 16z.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay...VFR with moderate northwest winds through this
evening. Upper level clouds will persist through this evening.
However convection has diminished from earlier this afternoon.
IFR/LIFR cigs will return late tonight into early morning and will
clear by 17z.
&&
.BEACHES...Have issued a Beach Hazards Statement for now through
Wednesday evening. A long period southerly swell arrives this
afternoon. This long period swell will result in increased risk
of sneaker waves and strong rip currents for south facing
beaches. Strong currents also possible for west facing beaches.
Individuals going to the coast should use caution and are advised
to remain off of exposed coastal rocks and jetties. This situation
will also bring dangerous swimming and surfing conditions along
with the potential of some beach erosion.
&&
.MARINE...as of 05:20 PM PDT Monday...Winds in the northern outer
waters continue to generate steep waves around 8 to 10 feet due
to strong northwest winds. Winds and wind-driven seas start to
diminish but will still be locally breezy near coastal jets and
the outer waters. A long period southerly swell at 18 to 20
seconds has also arrived to our waters and will slowly diminish
throughout the week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: McCorkle
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
The region is in the midst of a heat wave that looks to continue
over the next week. Shreveport hit a high of 102F earlier which
marks the 15th time this summer reaching triple digits. This
evening, at the mid-levels, a 500mb ridge is centered over the
Four Corners region and extends eastward into the southern Plains.
A layer of very dry air from 500mb into the upper levels is in
place across the southern Plains and Arkansas and is sliding
southward into the ArkLaTex. At the surface, high pressure is
centered southeast of the area over the Gulf of Mexico with a
frontal boundary extending from North Texas northeastward into
central Arkansas. Skies are clear or mostly clear this evening
with a few high level clouds passing.
Overnight, the deep layer of dry air in the mid to upper layer of
the atmosphere will continue to advect southward across the area.
This will contribute to clear skies overnight. While recent
hourly runs of the HRRR have shown developing convection in
central Arkansas making a close approach to El Dorado and Monroe
as it moves over the ArkLaMiss through midnight, that is
considered to be an outlier based on recent trends and given the
drier air advecting in aloft. Thus, no showers or thunderstorms
are expected through this period. Winds will continue to be
south-southwesterly at 5-10 mph overnight.
One additional consideration this evening is fire weather.
Coordination with the Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) earlier today
has led to adjusted Red Flag Warning criteria for our Texas
counties. The new adjusted criteria is RH values <25%, winds >15
mph, temps >100F, and critical or extreme fuel dryness. With
locations in NE Texas in a critical fuel dryness level it looks
like they will hit all of the criteria tomorrow afternoon except
for RH values which will be in the 25-30% range. Given RH values
are marginally close to hitting Red Flag Warning (RFW) criteria,
we will need to monitor this closely in upcoming forecasts with an
RFW possible. Thanks to our western neighbor WFO Fort Worth-Dallas
for the coordination on this earlier this evening.
For temperatures, lows tonight are closest to the National Blend
of Models, ranging from the mid to upper 70s across much of the
area. Population centers that are urban heat islands will struggle
to drop below 80 tonight. Northeast Texas, portions of SW
Arkansas, and McCurtain County have an Excessive Heat Warning
(heat indices tomorrow afternoon of 110F+) in effect with all
other locations under a Heat Advisory (heat indices tomorrow
afternoon of 105-110F) at this time. /04-Woodrum/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Upper-level ridge centered across the Four Corners region to
continue to intensify with the ridge axis to extend eastward
into Texas and across the ArkLaTex into Mississippi by Tuesday
night. Subsidence associated with the upper-ridge will maintain
the ongoing hot pattern. Afternoon high temperatures on Tuesday
are forecast to range from around 100 degrees across north
Louisiana to around 107 degrees across the I-30 corridor. The
combination of heat and humidity will drive heat index values
into advisory criteria across much of the region with portions of
southeast Oklahoma and adjacent areas of northeast Texas and
southwest Arkansas forecast to climb into excessive heat warning
criteria as heat index values surpass 110 degrees.
Aside from the heat headlines, the short term will be
characterized by mainly dry conditions with south winds averaging
around 10 mph on Tuesday with slightly lesser wind speeds
overnight. Overnight low temperatures to average in the upper 70s
to around 80 degrees both nights. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
Wednesday will see the apex of this first phase of the blazing heat
wave, with the latest model guidance projecting nearly all area
sites to be blistering above 100 degrees during the afternoon hours.
The orientation of the upper level ridge will continue to see the
warmest sites in southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, with
current estimates aiming at scorching highs of 106. The Excessive
Heat Warning in effect for Tuesday will most likely need to be
continued into Wednesday, if not also expanded.
Thursday will see a very slight relief as the aforementioned ridge
backs off just enough to the west to allow for a return of PoPs
consistent with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across
our easternmost zones of north central Louisiana during the
afternoon. Highs throughout these eastern zones may "only" reach the
mid to upper 90s, with sites westward likely just hitting the
century mark again. Calling this a break from the sweltering warmth
would technically be accurate, for while it won`t feel much cooler,
it will be the relatively cool day in the forecast period, as Friday
will see the ridge build back in into the weekend, with the ovenlike
heat returning in force, at least matching Wednesday`s highs with
increasingly coalescent temperatures through the weekend and into
early next week. /26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals throughout the
TAF period as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Winds
will be south-southwesterly at 5-10kts overnight increasing to
10-15kts by 15z Tuesday. /04-Woodrum/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 82 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 99 79 101 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 78 105 79 105 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 82 105 82 105 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 77 99 78 99 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 81 105 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 77 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ072-073.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-
108>112-124-125.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04