Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/18/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1001 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Vigorous convection has progressed farther south over southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario over the past several hours and has recently expanded farther west toward the Winnipeg area. Model guidance and time of arrival tools suggest this activity will move into north-central and northeast Minnesota after 06Z. There is plenty of instability ahead of the storm complex and the 00Z INL sounding featured 100 mb MLCAPE of nearly 3000 J/kg. There is a fair amount of dry air aloft, so parcel ascent will be tempered a bit with dry air entrainment. Steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE of around 1350 J/kg suggest a potential for gusty winds with the storms. Damaging wind gusts cannot entirely be ruled out. Looking upstream at the Dryden, ON radar reveals an outflow boundary surging ahead of the storms from north of Kenora to north of Dryden and arcing farther northeast toward Sioux Lookout. Will need to monitor trends to see if this indicates the beginning of a weakening trend. Have updated PoPs and weather with this update to focus on the storm complex to our north. Raised PoPs into the "chance" category for areas most likely to see rain overnight. The next period of concern will be the 12Z to 15Z timeframe. Several high-res models are propagating the storm complex in Saskatchewan eastward and may move into northern Minnesota during that time, if they hold together. Given the heat dome over the Dakotas and western Minnesota, this evolution seems to fit the typical "ring of fire" pattern common in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies in late July. UPDATE Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Despite high-resolution models continuing to generate convection in the Red River Valley, mid-level subsidence in the wake of a shortwave and ahead of a vort max over northwest Minnesota and southeast Manitoba continues to suppress convection. The two exceptions are a cluster of storms near Winnipeg and a few failed attempts at deep convection in northwest Ontario. Additional storms were located farther north into western Manitoba and far northwest Ontario. Have slowed down the onset of precipitation along the Canadian border with this update to better reflect trends and expectations. I still think we`ll have a chance of showers and storms later tonight, so didn`t want to go dry at this time. High-res guidance brings remnants of the northern line of storms into the Arrowhead around 09Z, which I can`t rule out. Otherwise remainder of the forecast is unchanged. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Summary: Very warm Monday and Tuesday with chances for thunderstorms, some severe. A dry period is expected for most on Thursday and Friday then showers/storms return for next weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued late this afternoon, most widespread over northern Wisconsin. A few echoes have been detected as far west as northern Cass and western Itasca Counties. We expect most of this activity to diminish with loss of heating. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening/overnight as a trough moves into the region. Several of the CAMs have shown this occurring with the storms diving southeast into the Northland. However, there has been little evidence of these forming other than a bit further north toward Lake Manitoba. We will carry lower POPs to account for their possibility but confidence isn`t very high. Fog will be possible tonight but at this time, widespread dense fog is not expected other than closer to Lake Superior. A frontal boundary will hang up near the International Border Monday, remaining there into Tuesday. Guidance varies quite a bit regarding the instability forecast over northern Minnesota near the front with the RAP much higher with MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg but it seems to high with surface dewpoints. The GFS/ECMWF have lower values from 1300-2000 J/kg but differ in location. Deep layer shear will be 40+ knots so there is a chance for severe storms Monday afternoon/evening and SPC has northern Minnesota under a marginal risk. Monday will also be very warm and we have forecast highs from the mid-eighties to lower nineties. Heat indices will be in the nineties to near one hundred for much of the area. We lowered dewpoint values some as some of the guidance suggests mixing may be greater. The GFS shows steeper low level lapse rates and mixes with drier air aloft which would lead to lower dewpoints. A better chance for severe storms will exist on Tuesday as a potent upper waves arrives driving a cold front through the Northland. There are some questions on instability but at least a corridor of higher CAPE is expected along and ahead of the cold front and there will be plenty of deep layer shear for a severe threat. Most of the Northland is under a risk for severe. Showers/storms will linger Wednesday with highs closer to normal values. Drier conditions are expected Thursday/Friday with chances for showers/storms returning for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Isolated showers and storms will continue into this evening, with coverage and intensity decreasing with time. High-resolution models, including the HRRR, suggest storms in Manitoba and northwest Ontario may persist and eventually move into northern Minnesota later tonight. Have shifted the timing of precip a little later at INL and opted for VCSH. Storms are possible, but will likely be isolated and relatively brief overnight. Will likely handle with TEMPO thunder with later updates this evening, once confidence in timing increases. Also added some IFR visibility at HYR. They picked up more than an inch of rain this afternoon and once skies clear tonight should see fog. With generally weak forcing expected Monday, think we`ll see another round of isolated storms during the afternoon. Since predictability is low, opted for a dry forecast during that time for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Onshore winds winds less than 15 knots will become southwest overnight and remain southwest into Monday. Areas of fog, some dense, are expected to become widespread later this evening and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. It`s possible the southwest winds may cause the fog to dissipate late tonight but winds are not that strong so we hold onto it until 8 am. A few thunderstorms are possible tonight, north and east of Silver Bay. More thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday night, some of which could be strong to severe. Winds will become easterly again Monday night and remain through Tuesday. Winds Tuesday will be a bit stronger, 10 to around 15 knots with some higher gusts. More thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, some of which could be severe. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 64 90 64 81 / 10 20 30 50 INL 64 85 64 83 / 30 30 40 80 BRD 68 93 72 89 / 10 10 40 30 HYR 62 92 69 90 / 10 10 20 40 ASX 63 94 64 87 / 10 20 20 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ UPDATE...Huyck DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1109 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity continues to build through the week with a few chances for rain. Low pressure will pass through the region Monday, with an additional cold front passing through Tuesday. High pressure moves overhead Wednesday, with low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes Thursday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 1108 PM Update...Very little change to the going forecast this evening. A warm and humid but dry night is in store along with some patchy fog. 725 PM Update...Dry and very warm weather as of 23z except for one lone shower in Cheshire County. Can`t rule out a few more pop up showers over the course of the next 2 or 3 hours but the vast majority of the region will be dry. Some fog may move into the Midcoast over the next 1 to 2 hours. Previously... Convection across southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine will wane through the evening with the loss of heating. Short wave ridging will slide over New England late tonight into Monday morning bring a mostly precipitation free night. Southwest flow will deepen late tonight with dew points climbing into the mid to upper 60s south of the mountains by Monday morning. Increasing dew points along with mostly clear skies tonight will allow for patchy fog to develop after midnight with the most likely spots being the CT River and northern valleys along with shelter locations along the coastal plain, particularly near the Mid Coast. The influx of moisture rich air will lead to lows only bottoming out in the upper 60s across southern NH to the mid 60s south of the mountains and upper 50s across the far north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A compact short wave that is currently diving southeast across the Midwest and will approach New England Monday from the eastern Great Lakes. Continued deep SW flow ahead of this wave will draw an anomously high PWAT air into New England with much of the area seeing PWATs in the 1.75 to 2 inch range by Monday afternoon. This short wave will go neutral to negative tilt as it crosses the forecast area Monday night. This system will bring showers with embedded thunderstorms to area starting Monday morning across western New Hampshire spreading eastward through late Monday into Tuesday morning. High PWATs combined with warm cloud depths greater the 10kFT and tall skinny CAPE profiles will bring the potential for periods of heavy downpours with showers and embedded thunderstorms. The HREF does show at least some probability of rainfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour with the HRRR also showing hourly rates around 1 inch, although no one location looks to experience these rates for more than an hour. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook continues to put the entire area in a marginal risk for flash flooding, which seems reasonable given the potential heavy rainfall rates. However, given the very dry antecedent conditions and 1 hour flash flood guidance well over 2 inches, concerns for flash flooding are low with much of the rainfall being more on the beneficial side outside of some ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Current QPF forecast has 0.75 to 1 inch along the coastal plain with amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches across the foothills. In the mountains towards the Canadian border amounts rang from 1.5 to 1.75 inches with the Whites seeing upwards of 2 inches. There continues to be questions regarding the evolution of this system and whether it will be baroclinic with a defined warm and cold front versus a MCS or remnant MCS. This will have implications for instability and strong to severe storms. If the consensus of model solutions pan out with a defined warm front and cold front, portions of southern NH and extreme SW Maine may become enveloped in the warm sector. This scenario will allow for greater instability and severe potential. SPC has shifted the marginal risk for severe storms just to the SW of the forecast area due to the uncertainty of instability with cloud cover and showers moving in tomorrow morning. Still, models show clockwise turning hodographs becoming elongated through Monday evening with 0-6 km bulk shear approaching 55 kts. If enough instability is realized, storms with rotating updrafts will become favorable bringing the threat for strong to damaging winds. The 12Z HREF has actually shown a slight uptick in updraft helicity tracks versus previous runs so current thinking is that threat for severe storms cannot be discounted across southern New Hampshire and extreme SW Maine at the moment. The window for strong storms looks to be from mid afternoon until around 10 PM. The short wave axis will not cross the area until Tuesday morning maintaining chances for showers and embedded thunder going overnight. The potential for heaviest rain looks to end by midnight. It will be a warm and very humid night with dew points remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s with lows generally in the same range. This will likely lead to areas of fog and patchy fog across much of the area with greatest chances in northern valleys and the CT valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overview: An active weather pattern this week. Low pressure will swing north of the area Tuesday, with a cold front approaching the region in the afternoon. This will bring the chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure drifts across Wednesday with dry conditions, before another low crosses the northern Great Lakes region and moves towards the Northeast Thursday with unsettled weather possible. Details: While there will be many eyes on the sfc low as it passes through the region Tuesday morning, there may be a second show of convection come Tuesday afternoon as well as gusty winds during the day. This will be spurred on as the exiting low tugs a follow up cold front towards the NW International Border. This is associated with low pressure across central Quebec, and should approach by mid afternoon. The thermodynamic environment could recover quickly following the exiting low. Forecast soundings display drying air through the column as NW flow follows up. Thus, think clouds should be thin or thinning into early afternoon peak heating. Cold air arriving aloft on the same flow should increase CAPE values with low level lapse rates increasing, and mid levels also trending conditionally unstable into mid afternoon. More uncertainty resides with the best area of forcing and shear. The greatest forcing would be along the sfc cold front as it nears the ME and NH mountains, but just how strong will the front be and how progressive? Additionally, low level 0-1km shear appears abundant at 20-30 kts, with deeper shear to 6km varying in strength through some runs (generally 30-40 kts). This would strike a good balance with CAPE amounts around 1000 j/kg in some NAM and GFS runs. Summary for all of this is to continue the chance of thunder across much of the interior Tuesday afternoon, and watch for potential enhanced wording. Mode, coverage, and avail moisture will need to be refined in coming forecasts. In addition, excellent mixing behind the low combined with a tight pressure gradient will bring the chance for gusty winds, potentially up to 35 mph, throughout Tuesday. Upper bound of momentum transfer would reach into the swath of low level winds as the sfc trough crosses the Gulf of Maine. Wednesday features high pressure nosing into the region as both lows take off to the northeast. The deformation zone should be overhead come Wed evening, with another low cutting across the northern Great Lakes. The biggest take away beside a return to some drier conditions will be building heat. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region, with mid 90s possible in southern NH. Next low arrives Thursday, with a cold front crossing the CWA. This will bring another chance of thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, into the area. Confidence is increased based on the proximity of the low, and the abundant heat/moisture in the region. Will continue to monitor timing of the front as this still varies through the model suites. Timing would help specify whether thunder threat is confined to a certain part of the CWA, but for now will carry much of it, especially the interior, with a chance for thunder. Warm temperatures look to persist into the weekend, with a chance of some rain showers into Friday and Saturday as the aforementioned low pulls away. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR is expected tonight into Monday morning, although valley fog will bring brief restrictions to KLEB and KHIE. Low stratus an fog may also impact KRKD tonight. Showers and embedded thunder cross the area Monday likely bring flight restrictions to all terminals with the greatest potential for TSRA across southern New Hampshire Monday afternoon and evening. SHRA continue Monday night along with patchy fog likely impacting most terminals with low cigs and reduced vsby. Long Term...Gusty WSW winds, potentially up to 30 kts Tuesday. -SHRA and TS possible during the afternoon with occasional MVFR. Conditions trend VFR for Wednesday. Additional SHRA and TS possible Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southerly flow increases Monday ahead of low pressure that will bring showers and possibly thunderstorms over the waters Monday evening. Winds and seas look to remain below SCA thresholds Monday and will approach 25 kts Monday night. Long Term...SCA may be needed Tuesday afternoon as low pressure exits north with gusty WSW winds. High pressure moves over the waters Wednesday, with another low pressure system approaching the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday. Showers or thunderstorms will be possible both Tuesday and Thursday afternoon. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cornwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
739 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 While most of the scattered showers have faded for the night, areas south of I-70 will see the threat persist past midnight. A few showers and storms are possible Monday morning east of I-57 as well. Otherwise, an extended period of dry weather is expected much of this week. High temperatures will return to the 80s and lower 90s, as humidity levels climb enough to bring the heat index back over 100 degrees by Tuesday in some areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Hefty rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches or more have occurred in parts of southeast Illinois since midnight, but the rain has been weakening some as it shifts south of highway 50. Currently watching a few showers dropping southwest from Pontiac and also south toward Galesburg, close to a wind shift in those areas. However, these should be weakening over the next couple hours. Rain chances were updated in these areas over the next 1-2 hours, as well as some tweaking south of I-70 for the latest trends. High-res models have continued to suggest some patches of fog late in the night. Latest runs are more focused south of I-70 with the excessive rainfall earlier, though the amount of clearing in that area is still in question. However, they have been showing some coverage in the northern CWA to varying degrees. Will keep the mention of patchy fog going overnight and early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The stationary front that had been positioned across central IL for the last 24 hours has finally started to shift southeast, and was located near I-70 at 1930z/230pm. A weak sfc low was located in northern IN at this same time. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover south of I-72, but clearing across west- central IL could allow temps to rise to near 80 this afternoon. Elsewhere, temps will remain in the 70s. A line of convection, located south of I-70 at 1930z/230pm, continues to track southeast, but limited airmass recovery after the morning rain has kept the storms from strengthening considerably. Despite the low- topped nature of these storms, they are still producing intense rainfall rates, however, the progressive motion should limit any flash flooding concerns, even in areas that received heavy rain this morning. In the post-frontal airmass, visible satellite shows scattered cumulus pivoting counter-clockwise due to the influence of the low pressure. While an isolated shower will remain possible in the post- frontal airmass, most areas north of I-72 will stay dry for the rest of the day. A few funnel clouds have been reported across far northwest IN, and this corresponds with the location where the RAP shows an area of sfc vorticity collocated with low-level instability. While the better potential for funnels will be north of I-80, the RAP does show this zone of low-level vorticity/instability shifting southward into evening, and it would not be a complete shock if there were reports of funnels in our northern counties (areas north of I-74) before sfc heating is lost. These types of funnels rarely reach the surface. Tonight, high pressure will build over the Missouri River Valley, and shift eastward into Missouri on Monday. High-res guidance is latching onto the potential for patchy fog between midnight and sunrise, but digging into the forecast soundings from various models only about half of the soundings have sufficient moisture for fog development. Added a mention of patchy fog into the gridded forecast, but not overly confident in its development tonight, and dense fog is not expected. Following the frontal passage, winds will be light and northerly, but without the widespread rain or cloud cover across the area, high temperatures will actually rebound and be about 10 degrees warmer than today, with seasonable highs in the mid 80s. There will still be a few hundred J/kg of CAPE across eastern IL on Mon, which could allow for a shower or two as daytime mixing occurs. However, forecast soundings show a warm nose around 800mb that could limit convective coverage, and most CAMs only depict isolated showers. && .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The next system to watch is a compact shortwave that will round the ridge and track across the norther Plains on Tues, reaching the Great Lakes by Wed. Ahead of this wave, southerly flow will advect warm, moist air northward, resulting in a muggy day on Tues with high temps near 90F and afternoon dewpoints in the low 70s. This will push maximum heat indices to around 100F, but conditions are not currently expected to warrant a heat advisory. Additionally, modest southerly winds around 10 mph will make it feel slightly less oppressive than if the winds were calm. Forecast soundings suggest gusts to around 20 mph along/west of I-55. No precipitation is expected on Tues as the low-level WAA leads to a very strong cap. For Wed, guidance depicts a strong 993mb low pressure over the Great Lakes, with a cold front draped southwestward through WI into west- central IL. As the front moves across the CWA, there will be a conditional threat of svr storms, as there will be ample instability and sufficient mid-level flow provided by the upper level wave to strengthen any convection. However, a strong cap appears likely to stymie convective development. Even the NAM, notorious for overdoing the low-level moisture content, struggles to erode the cap by Wed afternoon, by which point the front is already pushing into SE IL. All available guidance sources show little in the way of development through 00z Thurs (7 PM Wed), and it`s possible that even if development occurs the front will have already exited our area. The environmental conditions warrant keeping an eye on the svr potential, but at this time storms appear unlikely and the gridded forecast was kept dry. Following the frontal passage, it looks like it will be a breezy Wed afternoon, with sustained WNW winds around 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Temps are expected to return to the 80s on Thurs, followed by a warming trend into the weekend as upper level ridging expands eastward. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Main forecast concern will be for potential of IFR conditions after 06Z, mainly over eastern Illinois. Latest guidance has been developing some ceilings below 1000 feet associated with a boundary slipping southward this evening. Recent rainfall in eastern Illinois has been lighter, and cloud cover should linger longer there, to prevent a widespread taking of visibilities, though they should lower to a few miles. Right now, will only mention the IFR conditions at KDEC/KCMI. Areas further northwest will see some MVFR ceilings/visibilities at times late night. Conditions should improve by mid morning Monday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Erwin LONG TERM...Erwin AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The RAP model shows an 18C-20C h700mb thermal ridge building into wrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. The warmest temperatures at that level will be confined to the Panhandle and this is the result of sfc low pressure across wrn SD. Highs of 105F or above are in place across wrn Nebraska Monday. This forecast leans on the short term model blend and the guidance blend, plus the previous forecast. The forecast is a compromise between the warmer/faster GFS which tracks the sfc across SD farther east and the slower/cooler HRRR and RAP models which keep the low farther west. A fairly sharp moisture gradient should set up across ncntl Nebraska limiting highs east of highway 183 to the upper 90s. Heat indices across both wrn and most of ncntl Nebraska should approach or exceed 100 degrees and a Heat Advisory is in place Monday afternoon and early evening in both areas. The CAMS show isolated high based thunderstorms developing late in the afternoon and early Monday evening across wrn Nebraska. These storms will likely be dry thunderstorms and a slight chance POP continues in place across wrn Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A Pacific cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will arrive in wrn and ncntl Nebraska during the day Tuesday, most likely in the morning. Both the blended guidance and deterministic model blend continue to show high temperatures in the low 100s along and south of Interstate 80. This is unusually warm for a post frontal environment but likely indicative of the caliber of the heat wave affecting the region Monday. Wednesday will be the cool day with highs in just the 90s across all but swrn Nebraska where 100F is in place. The models show temperatures aloft dipping to around 12C-13C. Thereafter, temperatures aloft steadily rise to 15C-17C supporting highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Today`s models are a bit slower developing the next significant heat wave. Next Saturday would appear the hottest day. No meaningful rainfall is expected during the next 7 days but the models continue to show a fairly steady stream of upper level moisture rotating through the Rockies and then east through parts of SD and Nebraska. Moisture, focus and forcing are the ingredients for rain. Unfortunately, the models show very little focus, i.e. a sfc front or boundary. In fact, the hot spell of weather the next 7 days is driven partly by the absence of any sort of strong sfc low pressure moving through the nrn Plains which would send a cold front into Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 VFR will continue through Monday afternoon for western and north central Nebraska. The main aviation weather concern is regarding wind for Monday. Southerly near surface winds strengthen through the morning with gusts 25+ kts expected during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Little or no rainfall is expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska during the next 7 days. Intense daytime heating Monday will lower humidity to around 15 percent across parts of wrn Nebraska. Wind gusts to near 30 mph are likely during the afternoon plus there is the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms along and west of highway 61. A Fire Weather Watch is in place Monday for areas west of highway 61. The watch and eventual warning may include the upper Niobrara valley near and west of Valentine. Fire weather conditions will likely remain elevated across wrn Nebraska Monday through Friday. The concern is humidity near or below 20 percent each day with modest nighttime recovery to 50 or 60 percent. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 North Platte...forecast 105 record 103 Valentine... forecast 107 record 105 Broken Bow... forecast 97 record 110 Imperial... forecast 105 record 110 && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ204-210. Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ004>010-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Snively FIRE WEATHER...CDC CLIMATE...CDC
National Weather Service Morristown TN
928 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Previous forecast mostly on track but there have been some adjustments to POPs and fog overnight. Currently, just a few spotty showers and storms remain. This activity should dissipate by midnight. Areas that received rainfall today will likely see patchy fog overnight. Therefore, have added fog into the forecast across areas that that show radar estimated rainfall, which was mainly across the central and northern Cumberland Plateau and along the foothills of the east TN mountains up through northeast TN/southwest VA. Latest CAM guidance has slowed the arrival of showers and storms for late tonight into tomorrow morning. Have cut POPs back due to the slower onset time. Latest HRRR shows showers and storms not approaching the northern Cumberland Plateau until 11Z. Will send out new zones for POP and fog adjustments. SR && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, additional and more widespread showers and storms will move across the forecast area from late tomorrow morning through the end of the period. Any shower or storm that passes over a terminal will likely result in brief MVFR conditions. Winds will remain out of the southwest, generally less than 15 mph. SR && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)... Key Messages: 1. A few strong storms possible this afternoon/evening. 2. Rain chances increase Monday morning, peaking Monday afternoon and decreasing Monday night. Discussion: Showers and storms that have developed so far have remained anchored to the terrain. The CAMS generally show this pattern continuing for the rest of the afternoon, with the HRRR pushing some activity into the northern Valley around 00Z. By midnight, most of this activity will likely have dissipated. However, the showers over western KY associated with a shortwave trough will be approaching later in the night. There is good agreement among the models that it will be entering our northern Plateau counties around the 10-12Z time frame, so the forecast will raise PoPs to likely there by 12Z. Instability will be elevated and quite limited at this time, so strong to severe storms are not expected. Convection should blossom in the midday hours as the upper trough gets closer and instability becomes surface-based. The tall, skinny CAPE profiles, high LCL to freezing level thickness, and PW values near 2 inches suggest a potential for locally heavy rainfall, but not much of a severe threat given low DCAPE values. Precip chances will decrease late in the day behind this initial wave, but the main trough axis remains to our west for the first half of Monday night. Will keep PoPs going through midnight, highest in the eastern half, with a west to east decrease after 06Z as the trough passes overhead with dry air aloft building in behind it. DGS LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Key Messages: 1. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue throughout the week with elevated chances later on Wednesday and into Thursday. 2. Temperatures will be generally near normal with increasing confidence in notably hot temperatures by next weekend. Tuesday through Thursday At the start of the period, shortwave troughing will be in place with fairly broad southerly flow at the surface. A closed low will also be noted over North Dakota with surface frontogenesis having taken place to its south. There are discrepancies as to how much moisture will remain in the area with any solution suggesting higher values to be focused in southern portions of the area. By Wednesday, ridging will expand eastward, likely leading to decreased coverage of diurnal convection and an increase in temperatures. The aforementioned closed low will be moving into Ontario with its associated frontal boundary approaching the area from the northwest. This will be coincident with increasing moisture/southerly flow, in addition to low-level convergence. While some minor timing differences still exist, it is likely that the front will move into the area by Thursday morning, outlining late Wednesday into Thursday as a time of scattered to numerous convection. There are indications of notable MLCAPE values of 2,500 to 3,000+ J/kg ahead of the convection and with decently veered winds for this time of year. As such, strong to severe storms may be of concern if these trends continue. However, with the continued active weather in the nearer term, no additional messaging will be utilized. Friday through Sunday On Friday, previous shortwave troughing will gradually lift northward as ridging expands from the Southern Plains into the weekend. During this timeframe, the ensemble and deterministic consensus is for 500mb heights to reach or exceed 5,940 meters, which indicates potential for notably hot temperatures. Based on some indications, temperatures could be sufficient for heat advisory criteria to possibly be met. Also, with lessened overall moisture in place, any diurnal convection looks to be more limited in coverage than early in the period. BW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 86 71 90 73 / 20 70 50 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 84 70 88 72 / 20 70 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 72 82 69 88 71 / 20 70 40 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 83 68 85 68 / 30 70 40 50 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front will lift to the north on Monday. A cold front will then approach by Monday afternoon and move through Monday night, followed by weak high pressure from Tuesday into Wednesday. Another warm front will lift through Wednesday night, followed by a weak cold front Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will return Friday and Saturday. A frontal system may affect the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Warm front lifts through and to the north overnight as the mid and upper flow regime becomes southwesterly ahead of a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. A plume of moisture laden air will advect into the area, with sfc dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s in spots by morning, making it feel muggy relative to recent days, with lows ranging from the upper 60s inland, to the mid 70s in urban locations. Cloud cover will increase as the front approaches. Recent model guidance is depicting increasing shower activity, and possibly some embedded thunder, moving through as the warm front approaches overnight into early morning from about 3 AM to 7 AM. Model soundings show some elevated CAPE, so a few thunderstorms are also possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As the warm front heads north on Monday, the local area becomes warm sectored as a cold front approaches from the west. Aloft, the mid level shortwave begins to work east through the afternoon and passes north of the area, as surface low heads into upstate NY and into New England into the afternoon. Air mass in place ahead of the cold front will be conducive for both locally heavy rainfall and strong, to potentially severe, thunderstorms. The threat for any severe thunderstorms will be mainly north and west of NYC where the upper forcing is maximized as the shortwave and cold front move through. Airmass should destabilize somewhat through the morning as cloud cover associated with any remnant overnight convection clears out. There is some uncertainty to how quickly this clearing happens, with both HRRR and NBM, for example, keeping low clouds across eastern portions of the CWA through late morning. Model soundings are indicating 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE by Monday afternoon especially for the interior. In addition, shear should be sufficient (30-50 kt) for organized storms, with best chance of these again north and west of NYC. A few of the HREF CAMs (ARW and FV3) do depict some pre-frontal trough activity across the western zones as early as 17Z-18Z, with the main activity pushing through by 23-03Z. Given all this, SPC has placed the area in a "marginal" risk for severe thunderstorms, with strong and damaging winds the greatest severe hazard from the strongest storms. Any activity should weaken as it moves east and be completely offshore by 04Z-06Z Tuesday. Localized flash flooding is also possible with any stronger storms. Generally, the lowest 1-hr FFG is in northern NJ with values between 1.5 and 2", given the recent dry conditions. Model soundings however indicate 1.72-2.25" of PWAT across much of the area, which is near the maximum climatological values for this time of year per SPC sounding climo for OKX. The 12Z HREF does show some low probabilities of more than 1 inch per hr across the Hudson Valley, northern NJ and into the urban corridor. WPC continues the marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the entire forecast area, though the greatest risk of any flash flooding will be across the urban corridor and Lower Hudson Valley with any stronger and slower moving storms. Temperatures will be near seasonable, with highs in the lower and mid 80s across the board, though will feel a bit warmer with max heat indices in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the urban areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term forecast will be characterized by a heat wave from Tuesday through Friday, possibly extending into Saturday for a portion of the region. With humidity levels also elevated, especially Thursday, there will be the potential for heat advisories across much of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 90s with overnight lows remaining rather high, in the 70s, to around 80 in metropolitan area. However, no record high max or min temps are expected to be tied or broken. Temperature departures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees above normal. Maximum heat indices will be more dependent on how high dew points will get, and how much mixing there will be during the peak heating of the day. Mainly used a combination of the NBM and 50th percentile NBM for temperatures, and a combination of NBM and CONSALL for dew points. With the passage of a warm front Wednesday night there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially across the interior with the best frontal lift. A shortwave, pre frontal trough, and a cold front will provide better upper support Thursday as the air mass will become more unstable through the day. Weak ridging builds Friday into Saturday with a warm and humid airmass returning, and temperatures remaining above seasonal normals. Another frontal system potentially impacts the area later Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An approaching warm front approaching this evening will lift to the north on Monday. A cold front will then approach by Monday afternoon and move through Monday night. Except for KGON where it appears IFR or LIFR cigs may develop just after midnight, and KISP where MVFR or IFR cigs may also develop late, mainly VFR conditions are forecast for tonight. However, there will be a chance of MVFR or lower cond with any showers/tstms late tonight into early Mon morning (about 08Z- 13Z for the NYC metros, slightly earlier to the NWS and slightly later across CT/Long Island). After a lull in activity late morning into the afternoon, more showers/tstms could develop and move in from the west after 20Z. Gusty/erratic winds possible with stronger thunderstorms. Diminishing SE-S flow tonight should become S-SW daytime Mon and eventually increase to 10-15G20kt in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD possible to adjust timing/coverage of any showers/tstms late tonight into Mon morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...MVFR/local IFR cond at times with any showers/tstms. Gusty/erratic winds also possible with stronger tstms. .Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. .Thursday...MVFR cond possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into early evening. SW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Winds subside at night. .Friday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... No changes to the winds and seas at this time. SCA cond likely to develop early Mon afternoon on the ocean and harbor, and continue into Tue morning as SW winds gust up to 25-30 kt and ocean seas build to 5-6 ft. Gusts could also approach 25 kt at times on the Sound and bays. SCA cond should still be ongoing on all the ocean waters Tue morning, and into early afternoon out east. Increasing S flow ahead of a cold front should allow ocean seas to return to 5+ ft late Wed night into Thu. There could be gusts up to 25 kt as well Thu into Thu evening. Winds and seas then subside Thu night into Fri after the frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... Thunderstorm activity with associated heavy rainfall could lead to minor flooding in urban and poor drainage areas as well as localized flash flooding. With some potential for hydrologic impacts from heavy rain WPC has placed our area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Tuesday through Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A southerly flow increases Monday afternoon with a building S-SE swell through the day. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches in the morning, increasing to high in the afternoon. This high risk should continue into Tuesday as a 5-6 ft S-SW swell with 6-8 second periods remains through the day. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ338-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET NEAR TERM...DBR/MET SHORT TERM...DBR LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BG MARINE...DBR/MET HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
626 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 An upper level trof, currently extending from over the Great Lakes region to Missouri, will continue to push slowly southeast tonight. Concurrently, at the surface, a weak boundary to our northwest will also be slowly moving through the PAH forecast area tonight into Monday. The latest HRRR shows convection becoming widespread across the entire PAH forecast area between 01z-04z, then gradually moving southeast through the overnight hours. Went with likely to categorical PoPs through this evening, then chances will slowly decrease from northwest to southeast late tonight through Monday. Our northwest and west counties should be dry by Monday afternoon, with just a few light showers possibly lingering in our far southeast counties early Monday evening. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be generally in the one to one and a half inch range, with isolated higher amounts. Portions of southeast Missouri, far west Kentucky and extreme southeast Illinois remain in a Slight Risk for severe storms, where we have had the best heating and least rainfall. If storms can get going in the next few hours, we could see a few strong to severe storms into this evening. This will be something to watch. The clouds and precipitation have given us a break from the above normal temperatures today, and this will also be the case tomorrow. With lows tonight and Monday night around 70 degrees, highs Monday will range from the middle 80s east to near 90 degrees west. The heat begins its return Tuesday, when we expect highs to range from around 90 degrees northeast to the middle 90s southwest. With dew points in the lower 70s, afternoon heat indices in southeast Missouri will reach from 100 to around 105 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will be much warmer in the middle to upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The long term forecast period will feature mainly hot and dry weather through the weekend with an upper ridge building into the Middle Mississippi Valley area. With breezy southwesterly winds bringing in ample moisture, Wednesday looks to be the most concerning day of the week for heat related issues. Highs are forecast to be in the mid-90s for the Evansville Tri-State to near or just above 100 in Southeast Missouri with peak heat index values of 105-110 likely for most of the area. A shortwave low moves across Lake Superior into Ontario Wednesday, resulting in a weak cold frontal passage through the Quad State Wednesday evening. While there is plenty of CAPE and DCAPE along with high mid-level lapse rates, a strong capping inversion sharply limits PoPs in the ensembles ahead of the front. The lone PoPs left in the NBM are Wednesday evening for the KY Pennyrile area, as precip chances are higher southeast of the forecast area. The front will provide some temporary relief from heat and humidity, though highs on Thursday are still projected to be in the upper-80s to mid- 90s. The upper ridge expands eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley for next weekend. Some models are forecasting extreme heat, particularly the operational GFS, though this appears to be way overdone. Due to the clear overstating of highs in some models, and the slight chance of showers/storms for the weekend in some ensemble members that tend to occur in scenarios with a reduced intrusion of the ridge, highs were nudged lower relative to the NBM initialization, but still at or slightly above the 50th percentile. This puts highs Friday-Saturday in the mid to upper 90s with temperatures around 100 possible in Southeast Missouri. && .AVIATION... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Quad State region this evening. Clusters of storms in a very disorganized line will provide for a few hours in which thunder is most likely at each terminal. Thunder cannot be ruled out completely overnight or with potential new convection in the morning in Western Kentucky but is left out of the TAF due to low probability. Vsby will drop with thunderstorms and heavy rain, and will likely remain somewhat reduced overnight as fog forms. IFR cigs move in behind the main storm line, especially for KEVV/KOWB, while other sites may only drop to MVFR. Aside from thunderstorm gusts, winds will be light, shifting from southwesterly to northwesterly. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL SHORT TERM...RST LONG TERM...ATL AVIATION...ATL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
725 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates a high pressure ridge centered over Colorado and extending across much of the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, a trough is located over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Between these two features, the local area is in a northwesterly flow. At the surface, a 1016mb high is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico with a broad pressure gradient across the region. A weak 1008mb surface low is located in northeastern Oklahoma. A frontal boundary extends from central Oklahoma eastward to the low and across northern Arkansas. Ahead of the boundary, the local area is hot and humid with temps still in the mid to upper 90s this evening and dew points ranging from the mid 60s in East Texas to the lower 70s in the ArkLaMiss. The latest radar indicates isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front boundary in central and northern Arkansas. Overnight, the frontal boundary will slowly slide south and then begin to stall out across southeastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas. Related to this feature, hi-res models are favoring showers and thunderstorms pushing southward into the I-30 corridor tonight. Across the far north (McCurtain/Sevier/Howard) we cannot completely rule out a strong to severe gust with storms as they drop south and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this area with a Marginal Risk for tonight. Showers and storms will diminish with lingering partly cloud skies over southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas tonight. Further southward a mostly clear night can be expected. Another warm and muggy night is ahead. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s in portions of southwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and the ArkLaMiss to near 80 in East Texas and northwestern Louisiana. With warm overnight lows tonight and heat indices expected to warm into the 105-110F range on Monday, a Heat Advisory is in effect over the next 24 hours. /04-Woodrum/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 A weak frontal boundary will drift south across the I-30 corridor allowing for a chance for scattered convection overnight across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Front should linger across these areas through Monday before lifting back north on Monday night. Could see a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon across portions of north Louisiana as an upper-level trough slides south along the eastern periphery of a previously established upper-level ridge across the region. Upper-ridge to maintain sufficient subsidence to drive afternoon high temperatures to around 100 to 105 degrees across southeast Oklahoma and east and northeast Texas on Monday with slightly lesser values to the east in the vicinity of the upper-trough. However, the combination of temperatures and relative humidity values will produce heat index values around 105 to 110 degrees across the entire region on Monday. Therefore the Heat Advisory will be expanded areawide for Monday. Otherwise, overnight low temperatures will average in the upper 70s both tonight and Monday night. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Dangerous heat will continue for the Ark-La-Tex through the rest of the week into the weekend as ridging gradually rebuilds from the west. This is a result of upper-level troughing that undercuts the ridge as it heads west across central Mexico, displacing the ridge axis back into Texas. Maximum temperatures in the upper 90s and lower 100s combined with dew points in the low 70s each day will likely prompt additional Heat Advisories, while minimum temperatures in the upper 70s (potentially reaching the 80-degree mark in some areas) will reduce the time and quality of any nighttime recovery period, especially for outdoors activity. Prolonged dry conditions will boost drought development, especially with category D1 drought (moderate drought conditions) having spread through all of Northeast Texas into Oklahoma and across the Texas/Louisiana border. Isolated areas in Northeast Texas have already reached category D3 drought (extreme drought conditions) with further drought development likely in that area as the best chances of precipitation for the long term period remains in eastern Louisiana parishes. A majority of that rain is more certain to fall on Thursday afternoon with more uncertainty on any additional foreseeable rainfall as the ridge continues to build eastward over the Four State Region into early next week. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022 VFR conditions will mostly prevail across the terminals through the TAF period. As a frontal boundary approaches from the north, a brief shower or thunderstorm cannot completely ruled out at Texarkana and El Dorado in the 06z-015z window, however probabilities are so low that it is just mentioned as VCSH for now. Winds will be south-southwesterly at 5-10 kts overnight, increasing by mid- morning on Monday to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. /04-Woodrum/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 101 80 101 / 10 20 0 0 MLU 79 97 76 99 / 20 20 10 0 DEQ 77 103 77 105 / 30 10 0 0 TXK 81 104 81 105 / 20 20 0 0 ELD 78 97 76 98 / 20 20 10 0 TYR 81 104 79 104 / 10 20 0 0 GGG 80 103 79 103 / 10 20 0 0 LFK 78 100 77 101 / 0 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1158 AM PDT Sun Jul 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Another couple days of monsoonal thunderstorms expected, favoring the higher terrain. Monsoon moisture retreats by mid-week reducing rain/thunder chances to below mentionable levels through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain above-average until next weekend when monsoonal moisture begins to filter back into the area. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. This morning`s MCV is quite evident spinning over northwestern Clark County as of 1130AM this morning. This vort max from last night`s convection led to moderate and briefly heavy rainfall across the county this morning and brought rare rainfall to Death Valley as well. Moving into into the afternoon, this MCV will continue to push northward and wrap around the periphery of the H5 ridge in place. 12Z HRRR takes this and dissipates it moving into north-central NV as it gets enveloped by the synoptic flow to the north. As it takes this track, further convection is expected to be enhanced across Nye and Lincoln counties this afternoon, some of which is already taking place. Farther west, another round of Sierra convection is beginning due to southerly low and mid level flow riding up the Sierra slopes to the west. While this area isn`t as robust from a moisture standpoint, there is enough instability and minor shearing to allow some updrafts to grow enough to produce some marginally severe winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Owens Valley may receive some 50+ mph thunderstorm outflows or rock/mudslides if these storms are able to tap into these ingredients this afternoon. The 12Z HREF again shows a similar pattern to today for tomorrow, with morning convection in the southern CWA due to another MCS in Sonora riding up the ridge into the Great Basin. Tomorrow`s lacks a decent inverted trough however so unclear whether this convection will organize into a MCV or simply push outflow our direction. HREF members maintain updrafts at least into the lower CRV for tomorrow morning though so either way, the environment will continue to be favorable for morning convection again tomorrow morning which will largely steer the evolution of convection for the rest of the day. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Next Week. Not much change in the long term expectations. Still expecting PWAT values to decrease across much of the area and even fall to below normal for a brief period late week per latest ensemble meteograms. With the high pressure still in place, heating will stay above average with subtle vort energy wrapping around the high. This will set the stage for at least a few days of dry conditions and confine PoPs to Arizona for the most part. Even Mohave may have a dry afternoon or two Thursday or Friday, and rely on convection to the east to kick off outflows for any precip. Heading into next weekend, moisture begins to build back into the Great Basin. A tropical system coming off the coast of Mexico pushes northwest but out into the Pacific in response to our entrenched H5 ridge playing blocker. So instead of deep tropical moisture advecting into the region, the typical northern Mexico set up should return by next weekend. However, with the ridge potentially shifted west, much of the upper level features that lead to more widespread PoP potential may be lacking and high terrain continues to see the most convection, at least initially. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds should continue for another hour or two. Once the cloud debris from earlier storms clears out and stronger heating ensues, winds should favor an easterly direction, potentially southeasterly. This evening, winds are expected to turn to the south-southwest persist through the night. Best chances for thunderstorms outflow will be in the late afternoon. There could also be a round of thunderstorms tomorrow morning, similar to what we saw this morning. At the moment, confidence in this is not overly high, but will be something to monitor. Erratic and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that form in the valley. FEW-SCT cumulus this afternoon, with bases around 12 KFT. SCT-BKN clouds at 12 KFT tomorrow morning as moisture and potentially precipitation pushes north. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms likely to develop in northwest Arizona, southern Nevada, eastern San Bernardino County, and the Sierra crest. Gusty and erratic outflow winds of 30+ mph will be possible with any nearby storms. Otherwise, generally south winds are expected to prevail across the area, with KDAG being the exception. KDAG should see light northeast winds this afternoon before their typical southwest push this evening. Scattered mid- level clouds at 10-12 KFT this afternoon. Sites in the Colorado River Valley could once again see some overnight/early morning storms, similar to what happened last night. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...TB3 AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter