Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/17/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Summary: A few showers/storms will occur into tonight with more over mainly northern Wisconsin Sunday. Very warm temperatures are expected Monday and over southern areas Tuesday. A strong system will bring the threat of severe storms Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continued this afternoon from northwest Wisconsin west to Cass County and north to the International Border. A warm and moist airmass was in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper sixties for most areas. A shortwave was moving southeast through the area and will depart later tonight. There were also more subtle convergence areas aiding in storm development. Shear was lacking across most of the Northland although latest SPC mesoanalysis showed 25 to 30 knots of effective deep layer shear over our western areas. Storm behavior shows the lack of stronger shear with the storms more upright and lasting a short duration. Given drier mid-levels per RAP soundings, some stronger gusts may still occur with the strongest storms. Fog will be possible again tonight, especially around Lake Superior as winds become onshore. There will be some clouds to contend with and that could keep the fog from becoming too widespread so we will not hoist any advisories over land areas at this time. We added some POPs from about Pine County in east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. The storms are not expected to be severe. A weak wave and warm air advection may lead to more showers/storms over parts of far northern Minnesota Sunday night into Monday. Monday will be very warm with highs in the upper eighties to lower nineties for much of the region. Heat indices will rise into the upper nineties to near one hundred over southern portions of the area. The global models are in good agreement bringing a potent upper level wave through the Northland Tuesday with some minor timing differences still evident. PWAT values will rise to 1.5 to 1.75 inches Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast a corridor of higher instability developing ahead of the front. Deep layer shear is forecast from 40 to 45 knots. Given the strength of the upper wave, shear, and moisture there will be a severe threat Tuesday into Tuesday evening. A chance for showers/thunderstorms will linger on Wednesday, especially over eastern portions of the Northland and it will be cooler with highs in the mid-seventies to around eighty. Drier conditions are expected for late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Light winds at the surface and aloft along with modest instability will continue to generate isolated thunderstorms through 03Z. With weak winds, individual storms should pop up and collapse within a 20 to 60 minute time range. Have kept some TEMPOs with -TSRA in the forecast as that seems to be the best way to handle the "popcorn" nature of the storms this evening. Look for the storms to dissipate later this evening. Areas of fog are expected tonight, particularly at locations which picked up rain this afternoon and early evening. Have left the previous visibility forecast mostly unchanged, except to add mentions of BR at terminals which didn`t already have it forecast. Isolated showers and perhaps a few storms are expected again Sunday afternoon. Confidence in coverage and timing is low, so have added VCSH mentions for sites most likely to see precip. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Winds will be 15 knots or less through Monday. Expect winds to remain or become easterly through this evening and remain easterly into Sunday evening before they become southwest. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible into this evening and again Sunday night into Monday over portions of the area. Fog is expected to increase in coverage and it may be dense at times. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of the nearshore waters into Sunday morning. A better chance for thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as a strong system moves through the region. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 80 63 90 / 40 10 10 20 INL 60 86 66 87 / 20 10 20 30 BRD 64 85 69 93 / 40 10 0 10 HYR 60 86 62 93 / 30 20 0 10 ASX 56 80 61 92 / 30 10 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1051 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Sunday looks mostly dry with the exception of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but increasing humidity. Humidity continues to build into next week with chances for showers and storms late Monday and Monday night followed by the heat peaking mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM Update...Added a slight chance of showers over the interior (mainly nrn NH and adjacent wrn ME) over the next few hours. These have developed in response to weak forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough and weak WAA. Not thinking these will produce thunder, but with up to 6.5 C/Km lapse rates in the mid levels, can`t rule out a rumble or two. Otherwise, brought mins up a bit most places due to increased cloud cover. Other than that, no changes. 705 PM Update...Some cirrus and boundary layer CU around early this evening on an otherwise pleasant evening weatherwise. The CU will gradually dissipate and the cirrus will gradually move southeastward. Little change to the going forecast. Previously... The latest surface analysis places a 1022 mb high in the vicinity if Cape Cod with this high expected to slowly drift east through Sunday. Satellite continues to show a band of cirrus streaming SW to NE across New England with the northern edge of this cirrus starting to sag south of the mountains. Across northern and eastern zones more sunshine has allowed for CU to develop and an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out before the loss of heating this evening. Weak return flow around the high has started to advect higher dewpoint air into the forecast area and this will continue tonight. The 12Z HREF suggests the band of cirrus will continue to sink south tonight with CU fields dissipating with the loss of heating allowing for skies to turn mostly clear from north to south. Depending on how well spots will be able to radiate there will be potential for patchy fog to develop with the most likely spots being in northern valleys and CT River valley. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s north to low 60s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A low amplitude wave at 500 mb will cross northern New England Sunday morning and will be over Atlantic Canada Sunday afternoon. Low level SW flow will bring an influx of moisture into the region with dew points climbing into the low to mid 60s along the coastal plain. This influx of moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring surface based CAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon and veering winds in the low levels will bring modest 0-6 km shear to around 25 to 30 kts. While the overall synoptic setup is unfavorable for lift and there will be some CIN in place for much of the day, the HRRR and RAP have been showing some convective showers developing along a convergence zone associated with the sea breeze front. This will bring chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two along the coastal plain of Maine and southern NH Sunday afternoon. Otherwise mostly fair weather is expected Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s with cooler readings across the far north and near the coast. Any convection will dissipate Sunday evening with the loss of heating. Short wave ridging ahead of an approaching trough will move over the area Sunday night with SW flow deepening towards Monday morning. As SW flow deepens a humid air mass will drawn into the area with dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. The combination of higher dew points and mostly clear skies under short wave ridging will bring the potential for patchy fog to develop within the valleys and south of the mountains. Lows on Sunday night will range from the upper 50s across the north to mid 60s across the south with spots within the Merrimack Valley only dropping to near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The theme for next week will be for warmer and more humid conditions with primarily 80s for highs away from the immediate shoreline. There will be two relatively good chances for showers during the week as well, however we start out the week with very dry conditions in most areas under moderate drought conditions. A relatively vigorous upper level trough will approach the region from the west on Wednesday gradually becoming more neutral to negatively tilted with time. Ahead of the system, southerly winds will increase through a relatively deep layer throughout the atmosphere. Abundant moisture will be advected poleward with surface dew points climbing into the mid to upper 60s over southern and central portions of the forecast area. Precipitable water values will climb as well, reaching nearly two inches over southern sections. Will continue with likely pops in showers for Monday afternoon and Monday night. Expect a few thunderstorms as well as the atmosphere destabilizes with the passage of the upper level trough. A few locations may receive around an inch of precipitation, mainly over northern area in closest proximity to the trough. It will be rather warm. Despite the cloud cover, most areas will reach the 80s with cooler readings right along the immediate shoreline with readings in the 70s. There will be another chance for a shower Tuesday and as the trough exits the region. However, this precipitation will be widely scattered in nature. Another trough will approach late in the week, Thursday into Friday. The best chance for precipitation will once again be over northern areas. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Valley fog will be possible at KLEB with enough confidence to put in the 18Z TAF. Brief valley fog will also be possible at KHIE although confidence is not high enough to put in the TAF. Otherwise mainly VFR tonight at remaining terminals. Mainly VFR Sunday although isolated SHRA or TSRA may briefly impact terminals south of the mountains. Patchy fog will again be possible Sunday night in the valleys and south of the mountains. Long Term...Some possible valley fog clears up Monday morning with conditions quickly returning to predominantly VFR through the extended period. Showers and possible thunderstorms swing through Monday afternoon through Tuesday bringing periods of restrictions as showers pass. VFR conditions return Wednesday through the end of the week with another round of showers and possible thunderstorm restrictions Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday night. Southerly flow will increase Sunday afternoon as high pressure shifts east of the waters with gusts to 20 kts. Long Term...Winds and seas look to remain below SCA conditions through the extended period with the exception of larger waves and gusty winds near SCA thresholds as showers and possible thunderstorms pass through Monday night into Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides will continue into the weekend. There remains little forcing for a storm surge, but residual tide anomalies make it likely that high water and potentially some minor flooding may affect areas from Portland south through Hampton New Hampshire again tonight. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cannon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1016 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Loose complex of severe storms across southern NEB continues to dive to the SE, with its current propagation taking into NE KS by around 05z. Strong Convection further to the west in southern NEB may makes its way into central KS, after about 05-06z as it treks to the SE as well. As the convection drops south, it will slowly weaken as it runs into more stable air as it moves closer and closer to I-70, with mucape values dropping off dramatically south if I-70 based on the latest RAP analysis. Current pops, mainly across central KS, look to handle this scenario well. Think some remnant showers may continue to drop a little further south to along highway 50 or possibly to highway 54 by early Sun morning, but thinking mainly showers as it outruns the instability. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Elevated showers and the associated mid/higher level clouds have lingered into the afternoon across portions of central and eastern Kansas. Even so, temperatures have soared above 100F as expected across south central Kansas to the south of the stalled surface front over central Kansas. Chances for isolated surface based convection looks slim late this afternoon in vicinity of the front. Somewhat better chances look to develop later this evening and overnight behind the front, as convection originating over the high Plains moves toward the area. Modest elevated moisture will yield perhaps near 1000 j/kg cape where a veering low level jet will reside into the southward sagging synoptic front. So will maintain modest chance PoPs with higher probabilities close to the I-70 corridor. Held on to precip chances a bit longer Sunday morning over the Flint Hills and into the afternoon over far southeast Kansas as there looks to be enough post-frontal elevated instability within the mid/upper trof moving over the area. Otherwise, Sunday and Monday will see a very subtle heat reprieve with "less hot" sub 100 degree readings over much of the area. Unfortunately, the most intense heat of the Summer so far still looks to bake the area on Tuesday. High temperatures look to range from 105 to 110 degrees west of the turnpike with heat indices to match! This will require a heat advisory with later forecast issuances and could flirt with heat warning criteria. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The heat wave will continue after another very subtle break (i.e. highs just shy of 100F) behind a weak cold frontal passage on Wednesday, before triple digits prevail area-wide again Friday/Saturday and likely beyond day 7 into the 8-10 day periods. Weak upper disturbances in the northwesterly flow aloft between the eastern conus trof and western ridge may provide intervals of clouds and isolated precip chances Wednesday/Thursday, though not enough to include in the forecast. However the upper ridge looks to build eastward across the central conus by next weekend, bringing back the more intense heat to the area. KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, as a weak diffuse frontal boundary continues to waggle across central KS. As the evening continues, expect the frontal boundary to sag slowly south. There is a chance of elevated convection developing in the post frontal atmosphere across central KS, mainly by around 05-06z/Sun. So will go with a VCTS for most of the central KS taf sites from 05- 08z/Sun. There is some question on how far south this convection will get, so TSRA chances are uncertain for the KICT taf location. So will leave this location without a TSRA mention for now. Think some of the convection that may develop in central KS, may trek SE towards SE KS, so will include a VCTS mention for the KCNU taf for a few hours early on Sun. Expect the late night convection to help push remnants of the frontal boundary south into OK by early Sun morning with surface winds in most locations shifting to the N-NE. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 77 96 71 97 / 20 20 0 0 Hutchinson 75 95 69 98 / 20 10 0 0 Newton 76 94 69 96 / 30 20 0 0 ElDorado 76 95 69 96 / 30 20 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 78 98 70 97 / 20 20 0 0 Russell 70 95 67 100 / 50 10 0 0 Great Bend 72 96 68 99 / 40 10 0 0 Salina 73 94 69 98 / 50 10 0 0 McPherson 74 94 68 97 / 30 10 0 0 Coffeyville 78 98 71 97 / 20 20 10 0 Chanute 76 94 70 95 / 30 30 10 0 Iola 76 92 69 94 / 40 30 10 0 Parsons-KPPF 77 96 70 97 / 20 20 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A typical summertime pattern continues this weekend into next week with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms, and rising temperatures into the second half of next week. && .UPDATE/... Main updates were made earlier to keep up with the tenacity of the showers and storms moving west across the CWA. They`ve definitely illustrated a recent downtick in their intensity-but given how long they have lasted shifted the forecast towards the HRRR which seems to show the most eastward progression; the storms dissipating in the Cape Fear Region by bout 06Z. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Could see isolated to scattered showers and storms into early evening but convection is struggling a bit with dry air moving in at mid levels of the atmosphere inland. Sea breeze could reignite before sundown if enough destabilization occurs. Any action that develops should dissipate after sundown as forcing is limited. For Sunday, convection more typical of summer is expected with mainly afternoon action on the sea breeze though it isn`t impossible that a few showers and storms could move in off the ocean. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Nighttime convection again possible Sunday night, both from lingering Sunday evening storms, as well as developing activity near the coast and offshore towards Monday morning. This as mid-level shortwave energy slides up the coast out ahead of an approaching positively-tilted trough. Deep-layer moisture is decent as well, so have 50% PoPs over these areas, with dry conditions expected well inland where moisture fields are drier. Low temps in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period will feature daily chances of showers and TSTMs. A mid-level trough approaches the area Monday, leading to another good chance of rain through the day. Weak troughing aloft then continues for the duration of the week with appreciable atmospheric moisture/precipitable water for continued rain chances in the forecast. As for temps, highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s Monday and Tuesday increase slightly up to the mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices will max out around 105...Heat Advisory criteria. A slight reprieve in the heat then for Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and storms to affect LBT and FLO (the former storm really over-performing but it won`t last long). Storms should start to feel the loss of daytime heating and wane soon, though some guidance does bring them all the way to the coast so confidence a bit shaky. VFR for the most part overnight except for some MVFR-ish fog in areas that receive rainfall beforehand. Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions possible each day in showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance in the afternoon/evenings. Stratus and fog may produce mainly MVFR visibilities or ceilings overnight into early mornings. && .MARINE... Through Sunday: Expect S to SW winds of 5 to 10 KT tonight will continue into Sunday before increasing to 10 to 15 KT in the afternoon. Seas of 2 to 3 feet should build to 3 to 4 feet by Sunday afternoon. Sunday Night Through Thursday: Generally benign marine conditions but not too far off from SCA criteria Sunday night through Thursday with Bermuda high pressure offshore and troughs of low pressure inland. Winds consistently 10-20 kt out of the S/SW...highest late in the day. Seas 3-5 ft through the period, which includes a 2-4 ft 8-9 second SE swell component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MBB
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
927 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving area of low pressure will approach the region on Sunday and then track from central Indiana to Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday. This system will interact with a very moist airmass to produce showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build back into the area by Tuesday. Temperatures will quickly rise back to above normal readings into midweek until a cold front moves through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Despite a pool of SBCAPE of >2000 J/kg extending from Illinois and Indiana into the northwest corner of the ILN CWA, convection has been very slow to develop within this region, owing to weak forcing and inhibition. SPC mesoanalysis shows that most of the ILN CWA, in addition to the southern half of Indiana, has quite a bit of CIN in place. The 00Z KILN sounding depicted a warm layer at around 600mb. Will keep PoPs on the low side through the next several hours, as rapid development of showers and storms -- despite the continued premature insistence from the HRRR -- appears unlikely. This will change overnight as a shortwave moves into the area, with additional transport of moisture into the region from the south. Coverage of precipitation should begin to increase after 06Z, and especially toward daybreak. This part of the forecast did not require much in the way of changes. With surface dewpoints running slightly ahead of the previous forecast, min temps were also bumped up by a degree or so. Previous discussion > A warm front will extend into the region this evening. Some weak convergence near the boundary may produce a shower or storm, mainly near the I-70 corridor. For the overnight period, the first in a series of embedded mid level disturbances will rotate east/southeast toward northwest Ohio. Deep moisture will increase ahead of this feature as a low level moist transport develops in association with a low level jet. This will increase the chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as we head toward morning, especially for our northwest zones. Cloud will increase and thicken. Lows will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A series of mid level disturbances will carve out a mid level trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. These disturbances, associated with periods of low level moist ascent in association with a low level jet, will increase the chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Pwats are still forecast to reach 2"+ with this system. Instability overall should stay in the weak category given the increase in clouds and rain. However, there is a chance that locations across our southeast zones may be able to bump up into the low end moderate if enough solar insolation can be realized before pcpn arrives. Overall, the main hazard Sunday into Sunday night will be the threat for heavy rainfall. Most soundings will exhibit a "skinny CAPE" appearance, indicative of a very moist, tropical-like airmass. However, the southeast may be able to become a little "fatter" CAPE wise, and with pcpn loading, we may end up with a low strong/severe wind risk. Decided to leave the isolated strong/severe threat out of the HWO for now, allowing another iteration of convective allowing models to see if the southeast will able to obtain the needed instability. Otherwise, will continue with the heavy rain threat in the HWO which may lead to some flooding issues. Temperatures will vary on Sunday, dependent on timing of pcpn. Highs should range peak into the upper 70s most locations with the southeast perhaps warming into the lower/mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will fall into the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will shift northeasterly toward New England on Monday while associated rain showers and embedded thunderstorms decrease from west to east. This will leave the Ohio Valley in a mid-level northerly flow regime on Tuesday as strong ridging begins to build east from the central plains. Surface high pressure allows for relatively light southwesterly flow. Therefore Tuesday will be warm and dry as high temperatures reach into the mid to upper 80s. Southwesterly surface gradient strengthens on Wednesday as a quick- moving shortwave moves east into the Great Lakes. Depending on mesoscale factors along with timing of the associated frontal system, decent forcing along with moderate instability will provide a good chance of thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours. There is considerable uncertainty in the details at this time, so have opted to hold PoPs down a bit for now. More concerning is the potential for seasonally significant bulk shear (speed and directional shear) associated with the shortwave. Have left severe threat out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but this will be monitored closely as details emerge over the coming days. High temperatures on Wednesday look likely to top out in the upper 80s north to lower 90s south. This could lift heat indices to near or just above heat advisory levels. A relatively quiet period follows from Thursday through the start of the weekend. Temperatures will start near normal on Thursday, increasing to above normal July levels again by Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the first part of the TAF period, but showers and possible thunderstorms will move into the area later tonight. In the first few hours, there is a slight chance of a few weak showers, with no impacts expected. After 03Z (KDAY) and then after 08Z (other TAF sites) there will be a greater chance of some more persistent or heavier showers, which may bring temporary MVFR conditions. MVFR conditions will become more likely later in the morning, with prevailing MVFR visibilities at all TAF sites and prevailing MVFR ceilings at KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK. It is possible that some heavier showers, or embedded storms, could bring IFR conditions -- especially after 15Z. Occasional chances for showers and storms will continue through the rest of the day, though prevailing VFR conditions may return by afternoon. Winds will generally remain at 10 knots or below, with flow out of the south to southeast tonight, and then out of the southwest tomorrow. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible again Sunday night, with thunderstorms remaining possible into Sunday night as well. Thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The subtropical upper level disturbance operating across ncntl Nebraska this afternoon will exit the region this evening. Most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms should be east of the area. Until the system departs, deep layer 0-8km shear near 50kts, high CAPE and precipitable water north of 1.75 inches will support isolated HP supercells. Dry air will move in aloft at h750-700mb tonight and this could potentially produce a radiation condition for fog across ncntl Nebraska by 12z Sunday morning. The short term model blend was the basis for patchy fog along and east of highway 281. The temperature forecast tonight through Sunday night leans on the short term model blend plus bias correction. A very weak Pacific cold front will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and this should advect drier air into wrn Nebraska during the day Sunday. Ncntl Nebraska will remain in the 60+F dew point air while dew points in the west drop into the 50s. This is important because predicted high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s across the west could meet heat advisory criteria if dew points remained in the 60s. The forecast highs in the 90s Sunday are supported by h700mb temperatures of 12C-13C. This forecast is a degree or two warmer than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend, but slightly cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend which suggested 100F around Imperial. Warm air advection will continue Sunday night in preparation for a major heat wave Monday. The temperature forecast Sunday night uses the guidance blend which was cool, and the short term model blend which was warmer. There is a chance winds will decouple across parts srn Nebraska supporting lows in the lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Another major heat wave will develop across wrn and ncntl Nebraska Monday. The models suggest h700mb temperatures of 18C-19C which would support highs north of 105F in some areas. In fact, the NAM guidance suggested 110F for highs at Pine Ridge and Valentine. This the result of downsloping winds off the Sandhills into the Niobrara valley and the White River valley. The forecast uses the NBM suggested highs in the mid 100s. The HRRR and RAP models will be in range of this event Sunday. A swath of drier air be in place with dew points falling into the 50s across western Nebraska. The latest forecast puts heat indices in the low to mid 100s and later forecasts will likely carve out a heat advisory across much, if not all of western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures aloft at h700mb cool Wednesday and Thursday. Still, 90s are in place for highs. The next obvious opportunity for 100+F heat develops Friday. The models are in good agreement warming h700mb temps back up to 17C-18C. No meaningful rainfall chances are in the extended forecast. The plume of subtropical moisture which has produced rainfall across the region will remain across the Rockies but migrate north into the Dakotas after Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Scattered thunderstorms in north central Nebraska should move southeast out of the forecast area this evening. These storms have a history of producing large hail and gusty, erratic winds. Light winds and sufficient humidity near the surface should result in fog and low stratus in southwest and north central Nebraska in the early morning hours. Areas of MVFR conditions may develop in southwest Nebraska including KLBF. Lower ceilings and visibility are expected in north central Nebraska leading to IFR and LIFR conditions, including KVTN, KANW, and KONL. Fog and stratus will clear tomorrow morning with VFR conditions and winds out of the northeast at under 10 knots by the afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Meltzer
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Early morning fog / haze / mist has been replaced by broken cigs and some strong thunderstorms in far northeast Nebraska. The freezing level is way up to about 16,000 feet and as of 3pm, the very powerful storm skirting Antelope County has produced pea sized hail and a 56mph gust at most. Mid-level flow is weak, mid- level temps are pretty warm and severe weather will be difficult to come by, but an isolated storm report is certainly possible as the storms continue to slide SSE through the evening hours. Expect the strongest storms to skirt the western edge of the CWA through the evening. Omaha may see some showers, but the chance of a strong storm is near 0% for the metro. The flooding threat across the area remains low, despite the slow motion of the storms. It`s been dry and the ground is thirsty. Showers and storms will have wrapped up by sunrise Sunday and with sunny skies, temps will be notably warmer in the northern half of the area where 90s will be common. Heat and primarily dry conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the forecast period. Sunshine persists for Monday and Tuesday with continued southerly flow. Meteorology 101 students could easily infer that the temps will rise as a result. A localized heat advisory is possible along the SD state line on Monday and maybe along the Missouri state lines on Tuesday. We`ll see how the forecast trends over the next few days before issuing. The GFS has a tendency to overmix the boundary layer and drive forecast temps a little too high this time of the year... leading to cooling forecasts as the period approaches. Bias corrected guidance can correct this. A weak and dry "cold" front sweeps through the area on Tuesday and will push temps closer - though still above - seasonal norms for Wednesday. Most locations will still hold 90+. Heights rebuild as the ridge rebounds for Thursday resulting in warmer surface temps as we wrap up the work week. The CPC`s 8-14 day outlook leans slightly toward a below average week of precipitation, but has its thumb sits heavy on the scale for above average temps. The last week of July has a 3% chance of being cooler than seasonal averages but is 25 times as likely to end up being warmer than normal. Place your bets. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 In the very near term, KOFK will experience the greatest aviation impact. The remnants of a cluster of thunderstorms orignating in north central Nebraska,producing intermittent MVFR ceilings 2-3K AGL,and short periods of IFR visibilities due to SHRA. RUC is handling extent of non-convection preciptation the best and used it as basis of 0-3hr forecast for KOFK. Aforementioned cluster of storms will continue southward track,with CAMS indicating coverage of non-convective precipitation will end. There appears to be a small chance convective cluster could impact KLNK 04z-07z, with an even small chance of isolated TSRA at KOMA. Will add either VCTS or tempo group for thunderstorms at KLNK, but will not include mention for KOMA. There appears to be some potential for MVFR ceilings in the 11z- 15z timeframe per HREF and RUC. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Signals are coming together for worsening drought conditions that could develop through the remainder of this month into August. The CPC 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week outlooks all call for a high chance of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The EPS 46 day 2m temperature anomaly also suggests above normal temperatures possible through most of the month of August. Both CPC and the Midwest Regional Climate Center drought tools are also suggesting a risk of rapid onset of drought across portions of eastern NE and southwest IA. Considering that the corn typically uses 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of moisture per day, heading into what could be a prolonged period of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall, the concern for flash drought conditions seems to be increasing across the region. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Fortin CLIMATE...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
757 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 An upper level impulse upstream will be the next potential weather maker for our area. The associated convection has been developing over southeast MO over the last hour or so. This is in line with the latest hrrr initialization fields. By 12Z some of this convection could possibly reach into our far northwestern counties. This is depicted quite well within the current grids with 20-30 pops. The remainder of the fcst looks on track as well. Clouds will be on the increase with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 A few showers are starting to show up on radar this afternoon mainly over the plateau. Further west, a large cirrus plume from this morning`s activity in Kentucky is lingering over the western half of the area. Temperatures for the majority of the area are in the lower to mid 90s. The large western CONUS upper high is beginning its westward retreat. A shortwave will glance by to the north overnight which could allow for a few showers and perhaps a storm to move into the northwest. That shortwave will scoot by in the morning with the larger upper trough on its heels. Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop on Sunday especially in the afternoon. Looking at forecast soundings, there will be ample CAPE with some dry air aloft. This could lead to a few strong to perhaps severe storms with damaging winds and some hail. Widespread storm development should hold off long enough for the majority of the area to reach 90 degrees or warmer on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will continue Sunday night with the trough axis still west of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The trough axis will slowly progress across the area Monday afternoon with numerous showers and storms again. A few storms could be strong particularly in the south and eastern part of the area where models show higher instability. With cloudy conditions, plenty of rain coverage, and upper troughing, it looks like the area should stay in the upper 70s and 80s on Monday which would end BNA`s streak of reaching at least 90 degrees. Looking at all the models and ensembles, there`s about a 10-20% chance of BNA squeaks out 90 degrees on Monday. The trough axis will be clear of the area by Monday night and the heat will be on once again. We will be under the influence of northwest upper flow for the rest of the work week with scattered storm chances. We`ll have to keep an eye on Wednesday for a heat advisory as current temperatures and dew point values show afternoon heat index values around 105 or greater west of I-65. Unfortunately, the heat looks like it could get worse as we move into next weekend. Models show 500 mb heights increasing with the operational GFS developing a stout upper high directly over our area. The Euro and GEFS keeps the center of the upper high west of the area, but strengthens it and allows it to expand eastward, which means we could be in for some very hot and dry days late in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 VFR conditions are expected at airports the rest of today into early tomorrow morning, before VCSH affect CKV after 08Z and VCTS at all airports after 16-18Z. Due to some uncertainty on timing and coverage of SHRA/TSRA, have only inserted a PROB30 mention for now, although a predominate group is possible. Light south winds tonight will become southwesterly and increase on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 92 72 87 / 10 70 70 70 Clarksville 73 88 71 88 / 20 70 70 70 Crossville 69 84 68 78 / 0 50 70 80 Columbia 73 93 71 88 / 10 50 70 70 Cookeville 71 87 70 81 / 10 60 70 80 Jamestown 70 85 68 79 / 10 70 70 80 Lawrenceburg 72 91 71 86 / 0 50 70 70 Murfreesboro 73 92 72 86 / 10 60 70 70 Waverly 74 89 70 88 / 10 60 70 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......21 SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
528 PM MST Sat Jul 16 2022 .UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion. .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon through the evening with damaging winds and blowing dust the primary threats. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs across the lower deserts reaching upwards of 110 to 115 degrees, with slightly cooler temperatures likely starting Monday and continuing through the rest of next week. Sufficient monsoonal moisture will be in place during the next several days providing daily opportunities for shower and thunderstorm activity, especially over the high terrain but at times across the lower deserts as well. && .DISCUSSION... It is shaping up to be an active and potentially high-impact day, especially across southern AZ and northern Sonora, as an IT progresses along the International Border. 12Z HREF is showing high probabilities for a robust convective complex developing initially near Nogales. Stronger and deeper easterlies above the boundary layer, above 600 mb, have developed around the base of the 596-597 dm H5 high centered near the Four Corners. A mid level speed max is expected to develop later this afternoon and evening along the border, with up to 35-40 kts winds. This increased mid level flow will increase the shear across southern AZ, projected to peak around 30-40 kts on average along the International Border with decreasing magnitudes to the north. Up to 25-30 kt EBWD on average is anticipated over the South-Central AZ lower deserts, including Phoenix. The higher shear will support better organized storms and greater chances for strong to severe storms. There are some factors that may initially limit coverage of convection this afternoon, including lower PWATs (1.2-1.3" in South-Central AZ), slightly stronger capping inversion, and high LCLs (12-15 kft AGL for lower deserts). However, strong outflows and outflow collisions may be able to overcome these limitations as suggested by many hi-res CAMs. The HRRR seems to be the most robust with convection, but not unreasonable, with storms developing over the South-Central AZ lower deserts this evening along a merger of outflows from convection over northern AZ and a pronounced outflow from the International Border convection. Exactly where this convergence may occur will remain unknown until later this afternoon/evening. DCAPE values are very high this afternoon with the added dry air. Values up to 2,000 J/kg will support strong to severe downburst winds, which will be capable of producing areas of blowing dust. This helped warrant a Marginal Severe Risk from SPC. HREF probabilities of >35 mph convective winds are up to 50-70% through South-Central AZ with 5-10% probabilities of >58 mph. Highest confidence in blowing dust will be in the dust prone areas of western Pinal and southern Maricopa counties, thus decided to issue a Blowing Dust Advisory in coordination with TWC for this evening. Chances for storms in the lower deserts will be greatest this evening and debris clouds with embedded showers and thunder will likely continue off to the west-northwest through the overnight hours. Given the greater storm motion today, flash flooding is less of a concern, but still possible with high rain rates in excess of 1"/hr. Hi-res models are less aggressive with convection Sunday over Southern AZ despite similar conditions to today. Part of this may be conditional on how the rest of this afternoon and evening unfolds and also being in the wake of the IT, but still cannot rule out isolated strong convection over terrain features of eastern and southern AZ. Well above normal temperatures will be another concern through the weekend as ensemble guidance show 850 mb temperatures climbing to around 32C for the weekend, which will translate to many areas across the lower deserts climbing upwards of 110-115 degrees for highs. Widespread moderate HeatRisk with locally high HeatRisk is expected through the weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect through the weekend for the Phoenix metro area as well as across western Imperial County. Temperatures are expected to cool off below 110 degrees heading into next week given the potential for greater cloud coverage and moisture. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0028Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Gusty westerly winds to continue into the early evening hours. Attention turns to thunderstorms developing to the east and south of the Phoenix area. Outflows from the storms to the east are expected to move Confidence levels continue to remain high enough to keep VCTS and wind shifts in the TAFS. Currently, it appears that breezy outflow winds from the east will approach terminals first (better chances of it reaching PHX/DVT/SDL) around 02-3Z. Thereafter, a robust outflow from the southwest will likely impact all terminals, sometime around 03-05Z this evening. Probabilities for wind speeds exceeding 35 mph are in the 50-70% range at each terminal, and there is even a 10% chance for winds over 50 kts at KIWA. Due to strong thunderstorm winds, blowing dust will also be a concern today, especially at KIWA and potentially even as far north at KPHX. Few to scattered cloud decks mainly aoa 12 kft this morning, before an increase in coverage this afternoon into tonight. Lighter easterly winds will set in overnight. As far as the forecast for Sunday is concerned, after another earlier-than-usual switch to westerly winds during the mid/late-morning hours, the amount of convective activity during the afternoon hours appears it will be less than today, with storms expected to remain mainly outside the Phoenix area, with just perhaps a wind shift to easterly during the late evening hours as outflows from distant storms move into the area. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at KIPL will favor a southeasterly component perhaps briefly switching to westerly this evening for a couple of hours. Winds at KBLH will favor a southerly component. Gusty southeast outflow winds (up to 25 kts) will be possible this evening near 4-6Z. Otherwise, expect FEW- SCT clouds this morning, increasing to SCT- BKN tonight, with ceilings staying aoa 15 kft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sufficient monsoonal moisture will remain in place during the next several days, resulting in daily opportunities for shower and thunderstorm activity. With the moisture in place, MinRH values will remain above 15% with overnight recoveries between 30-50% across the lower deserts and 50-80% across the higher terrain areas. Winds will remain fairly light most of the time, with the exception being some enhanced afternoon upslope breeziness as well as any thunderstorm activity resulting in strong and erratic winds. Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend with daily readings 3-6 degrees above normal, with slightly cooler conditions as we head into next week with daily readings dropping closer to normal. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ537-540>544- 546-548>551. Blowing Dust Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM MST this evening for AZZ539-553-554-559. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562-563-566- 567. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Percha/Hodges FIRE WEATHER...Lojero
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
833 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 The showers and storms ramped up pretty quickly late this afternoon along west central and southwest Florida. The storms stayed sub- severe, but a waterspout was observed over northern Tampa Bay and some areas of Hillsborough, Pinellas and Manatee Counties received 3- 5 inches of rain in some areas. This led to some extensive street flooding that warranted the issuance of a short-lived flood advisory for those areas. All advisories have since expired and conditions are expected to continue to quiet down through the evening and into the overnight hours. Similar conditions are expected again on Sunday. Made some slight tweaks to POPs based on latest radar coverage and HRRR model guidance through midnight. No other changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 SHRA will taper off over the next hour with VFR conditions expected overnight. Light winds around 5 knots or less expected overnight, then increasing SSE-SSW around 5-10 knots by late morning. Will hold VCSH starting around 14Z and VCTS after 16Z and continuing through the afternoon hours on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 High pressure ridge across north Florida will drift south this weekend with a more south to southwest flow setting up early next week. Winds could briefly reach exercise caution tonight, otherwise n o headlines are expected as winds should remain 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less through the period. The main hazard will be scattered showers and thunderstorms which could cause some locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 91 79 92 / 50 60 30 50 FMY 75 91 78 93 / 30 70 20 60 GIF 75 92 77 95 / 50 80 20 60 SRQ 74 90 77 91 / 50 50 20 40 BKV 72 91 73 92 / 40 60 30 50 SPG 77 89 79 90 / 50 60 30 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT....Giarratana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
314 PM PDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture persists through the weekend, continuing the potential for monsoonal thunderstorms to the region, favoring the higher terrain. Afternoon storm chances will continue through early next week, as will above-average temperatures. A brief lull in monsoonal moisture will occur mid to late week, dropping rain chances and confining them more to Arizona but a return of moisture looks to occur heading into next weekend and early next week. && .AFTERNOON UPDATE... After collaboration with neighbors, opted to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow for some of the northern zones (Lincoln/N. Mohave) as heat risk was solidly in the "high" category for the lower elevations of those areas. Further south, where these temperatures are not as uncommon, heat risks should be lesser tomorrow for the general population. Of note, overnight lows are well above average across the region meaning some risk for compounding heat effects exists across the region regardless, but wanted to highlight these more uncommon locations in Lincoln and Mohave counties such as Littlefield, Caliente, Alamo, Hiko, and Colorado City. .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. As of 18Z, satellite and radar trends showed convective initiation underway over high terrain of southern Nevada, SE California, and northwest Arizona. While moisture isn`t as impressive as yesterday, there is still plenty of it in place to convect efficiently with heating alone. WPC has included almost all of the CWA (except San Bernardino) in a marginal risk for flash flooding which is only slightly less expansive than SPCs general thunder risk for today as well. This illustrates well that any convection will have the possibility for isolated heavy rainfall and thus, flash flooding. That being said, any other dynamic triggering mechanism other than orographics is lacking pretty much entirely today so expect this risk to continue to be mostly confined to the high terrain areas. Beyond flash flood risk, with the drier sub-700 mb layer present today, there will be more of a concern for gusty outflow winds. DCAPEs of 1500+ J/KG are prevalent across the CWA according to the RAP mesoanalysis. With little to no shear, we should see several radial outflows produced from initial convection and then those outflow creating new updrafts, especially as they interact with other topography. 12Z HREF shows less than a 10% chance for 50+ kt outflow winds this afternoon, and max values topping out around 40kts. This seems appropriate given the limited UL support today. For tomorrow however, some additional variables may come to play to aid in a bit more upscale threat. The 250mb high spinning over the Sierra today will shift northeast and serve to pull an inverted trough axis northwest from northern Mexico. This axis will be the trigger for convection tonight and overnight in Mexico that should also be pulled up tomorrow morning into the Great Basin. Should this complex generate any MCVs or additional outflow boundaries, we could be seeing either maintained convection overnight, or an earlier onset of convection tomorrow morning. Increased PoPs to include some slight chance mentions overnight and tomorrow morning as well to capture this. .LONG TERM...Next Week. While the overall H5 ridge meanders around the desert southwest next week, PWAT values decrease across much of the area and even fall to below normal for a brief period late week per ensemble meteograms. With the high pressure still in place, heating will stay above average with subtle vort energy wrapping around the high. This will set the stage for at least a few days of dry conditions and confine PoPs to Arizona for the most part. Even Mohave may have a dry afternoon or two Thursday or Friday, and rely on convection to the east to kick off outflows for any precip. However, the 00z/06Z EC/GEFS/GEM all seem to agree with bringing the monsoonal moisture back by the weekend or early next week with QPF signals returning to KIGM and pretty much all sites across the CWA by early next week. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both indicate a signal for above normal precip in agreement with the long term ensembles as well. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect a southerly component to the winds into the evening hours around 8 kts. Winds will favor more of a southeast direction early then southwest by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected around the area with the main operational impacts likely being the potential for outflow winds to impact the terminal during from mid afternoon through early evening. Variable winds up to 25 kts will be possible with any outflow. FEW- SCT120 expected through the day. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Thunderstorm chances will be mainly confined to southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, the portions of northern Inyo County and far eastern San Bernardino County this afternoon and early evening. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and outflow winds up to 40 kts. FEW-SCT100-120, but could lower to around 8-10k feet under any storms. The KBIH terminal has the highest chance of seeing impacts from thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm influences south to southwest winds 5-15 kts expected. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...TB3 AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter