Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/16/22

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
928 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary meander northward across the region. Expect shower and thunderstorm chances to persist each day, with the best chances being along and southeast of the frontal boundary. More diurnally driven showers or storms will be possible late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 920 PM EDT Friday... Mainly diurnally driven convection has diminished greatly over the past hour or two. Still, some convection is persisting over NE NE near the Albemarle Sound likely pinned to a boundary from earlier convection. However, trends with this convection is also diminishing and the expectation is that thunderstorm activity should end by midnight. This will leave perhaps some isolated showers across the SE overnight. With all of the precipitation today, and clearing skies from the west along with light winds, am expecting fog to develop across much of the area tonight. Have introduced fog across the entire area. There are hints from the RAP that the fog could become dense overnight but for now will simply include patchy fog in the forecast. As of 355 PM EDT Friday... Convection fired along a slow-moving boundary across the central CWA. Along and to the south of this front, 1000-1500 MLCAPE and effective shear of 20-30 kts will result in loosely organized storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts as the taller cores collapse. PW values range from 1.25" near RIC to nearly 2" near the Albemarle Sound, so showers and storms this afternoon will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall with localized areas of flash flooding possible, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. CAM guidance shows the relative greatest coverage of showers/storms along the I- 95 corridor south of Richmond and to the southwest of the ongoing storms over the lower peninsula/Hampton Roads. A mid level cloud deck left over from showers this morning has hampered heating somewhat over far SE VA and NE NC but given further heating and aforementioned deep moisture, storms are possible just about anywhere across the southeastern half of the area into this evening. Convection wanes quickly after sunset with the loss of heating. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight. Lows temps fall into the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Friday... General troughing is maintained across the NE portion of the CONUS with strong upper ridging holding strong over the SW. Bermuda high off the SE coast will be a quasi-permanent feature this weekend into next week. A stationary front will slowly move north this weekend, acting as a focus for development of afternoon/evening showers and storms. Deep layer wind shear will be seasonally weak but instability and copious moisture will result in some isolated potential for strong wet microburst winds. Flow turns southerly on Saturday as the front lifts slowly northward. A weak lee trough may set up by late afternoon which will also serve as a focus for convection. Showers and storms will linger into the evening with diminishing chances for thunder, especially after midnight. High temps Saturday warm into the mid and upper 80s. Muggy overnight with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to right around 70 near the coast. Similar conditions on Sunday with not much change in the local airmass. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are favored over the western and central portions of the area as weak lee troughing sets up by the afternoon. Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lingering showers will end quickly Sunday evening with overnight lows in the low 70s. A touch warmer for Monday as Bermuda high pressure builds westward. Low pressure near the Great Lakes moves eastward during the afternoon and evening, bringing a cold front/surface trough toward the area. This will focus the highest storm chances across the northwest and northern parts of the area. Afternoon high temps in the 90s with upper 80s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Friday... Warming trend gets underway in the extended forecast period. Highs temps in the low 90s on Tuesday with overnight lows in the 70s. The heat looks to peak on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 90s for all but the immediate coast. Thankfully, dew points will tend to mix out a few degrees each afternoon so heat indices peak below heat advisory thresholds (105+). Shower and storm coverage also looks to be rather sparse on Wednesday. Remaining hot Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s with slightly higher chances for showers and storms by the afternoon. A degree or two cooler on Friday with highs in the low 90s with diurnal shower and storm chances. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Friday... Showers and storms have mostly ended and will unlikely impact the terminals tonight. However, with all of the rain from today, combined with light winds and some partial clearing, fog is expected overnight. Guidance is not very bullish on fog development, however the numerical guidance suggests fog overnight and have introduced MVFR fog at all of the terminals. Will need to watch closely for IFR conditions and it is possible that the 06z TAFs will need to include IFR conditions overnight. VFR conditions expected tomorrow athough additional showers and storms in the afternoon will allow for the possibility of flight restrictions at all terminal locations. Outlook: A typical summertime pattern remains in place into next week, with additional isolated to scattered storms expected mainly each afternoon and evening. Instances of early morning fog and stratus will also be possible into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 305 PM EDT Friday... A nearly stationary front lingers inland through Sat before lifting north Sat night. This will allow for showers and storms this afternoon into this evening and again tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Even once this front moves out of the area, diurnal afternoon and evening showers and storms will continue to be possible through most of next week. Otherwise, typical summer pattern with no significant FROPA expected over the next week and sub-SCA conditions likely continuing through at least early Mon. Winds this afternoon are generally SE 5-13 kt. Winds remain SSE/S this evening through tonight, diminishing to 5-10 kt late. SE winds 5-10 kt early Sat increase to 10-15 kt late before becoming SW Sat night. Winds slowly pick up Sun with the strongest winds arriving late Mon through Mon night as S winds (becoming SW Mon night) increase to around 15 kt across the bay and 15-20 kt across the coastal waters. Will continue to monitor trends as we get closer as SCAs may be needed for this surge. The next potential for SCAs is late Wed through Thurs night as SW winds increase to 15-20 kt across the Ches Bay and 18-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. Waves and seas remain 1-2 ft and around 2 ft respectively through Sun afternoon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR NEAR TERM...RHR/MRD SHORT TERM...RHR LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...RHR/MRD MARINE...RMM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
605 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF... A very quiet TAF period is in store with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will be southeasterly to southwesterly generally less than 15 kts. Skies will be mostly clear with maybe a few high clouds. Hoffeditz && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ SHORT TERM...This afternoon through tomorrow night... Well above average high temperatures will continue through tomorrow across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Widespread high temperatures in the triple digits are forecast for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. The short term will remain mostly dry, however, a storm may be able to get into the far northwestern Panhandles tomorrow evening. The latest RAP upper air analysis early this afternoon shows the center of the H500 high pressure system is currently located over northeastern NM early this afternoon. Temperatures across the Panhandles at the time of this writing, are ranging from the mid 90s in the southwest to just over 100 for most areas in the north and east. Winds will remain relatively light this afternoon and temperatures will rise into the triple digits for most areas. Upper level high shifts a bit further east to just over some areas of the Panhandles during the day tomorrow. Deterministic model guidance suggests that the H850 temperatures will be comparable to what they are today (32 to 35 C), so surface temperatures will be comparable to what we experience today. Some areas will likely need to be in Heat Advisory criteria, much like today. Palo Duro Canyon is forecast to reach up to 108 tomorrow and will at least reach advisory criteria once again. A subtle upper level disturbance traversing around the high pressure aloft will move across the higher terrain to the west tomorrow. A few thunderstorms are expected to form in this area and may be able to make it into the far northwestern Panhandles during the late afternoon into evening hours. Muscha LONG TERM... A weak cold front is expected slip southward across the Panhandles on Sunday. This front may become a focus for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southwest half of the CWA in the afternoon and evening. This rain, if it develops, would bring at least a brief relief from the heat. It looks like Monday and Tuesday will be dry days for the most part as the flow aloft remains northerly which will make it tough to bring any mountain convection this way. There is an outside chance that some showers and storms may make it into Cimarron County Tuesday evening in association with another weak cold front. Showers and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase a little Wednesday and Thursday mainly for the western Panhandles. The flow aloft becomes more northwesterly as the upper high moves back across the 4-corners region. Also, there could be some weak upper level disturbances in the flow that may help to bring the mountain convection this way. High temperatures will remain above normal from Sunday through Thursday. Readings will be generally in the 95 to 105 range. However, Tuesday still looks like the warmest day with readings from around 100 degrees to 110 degrees. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Hansford- Hutchinson-Moore-Palo Duro Canyon-Sherman. Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Palo Duro Canyon. OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Texas. && $$ 36/5
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 At 02Z, convection remains in Montana, having weakened from earlier central Montana activity. Over the past hour there has been an uptick in intensity, especially along an outflow boundary from Miles City to Glendive, though still sub-severe at the moment. Better surface dew points remain on the North Dakota side, which should contribute to a stronger reservoir of MUCAPE. However the degree of convective inhibition remains uncertain, especially as surface temperatures cool this evening. 01Z HRRR seems to be picking up on the recent weaker trends, but keeps convection going well into central North Dakota early Saturday morning. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the KBIS RAOB, supply of surface dew points around 70 F, and possibility of a LLJ overnight, it seems reasonable that strong thunderstorms (but less certain to be severe) are still possible in western and central North Dakota overnight. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Current regional radar depicts clusters of thunderstorms moving from central to eastern Montana, where severe wind and hail have been reported. A few thunderstorms were ongoing in central Saskatchewan, but well north of the International Border. Thunderstorms will be more likely to arrive on the western North Dakota border as the mid level shortwave and attendant surface trough approach late this evening. Severe weather continues to be possible, more likely along the western third of the state, where the atmosphere should remain moderately unstable late this evening with good deep layer shear. Hodograph orientation looks to favor the northwest portion of the state, where generally straight hodographs should lead to some rotating cells. In the southwest, forecast hodographs exhibit backing with height in the mid-levels, which leads to less confidence in organized severe thunderstorms late tonight. That said, large dew point depressions have allowed for even disorganized convection to produce severe wind gusts in southeast Montana this evening, which may continue into southwest North Dakota while the boundary layer is still reasonably mixed. Therefore the severe risk should last longer in the northwest to north central this evening and tonight where the wind shear orientation is more favorable for organized cells, but a shorter lived risk, especially for wind, does exist in the southwest before the boundary layer completely decouples late this evening. The severe potential becomes likely in the central as MUCAPE and shear decreases overnight, therefore the current outlook with severe potential kept west and north central looks reasonable. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 The main concern in the short term period will be the chance of thunderstorms, some possibly severe. Afternoon radar mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms starting to increase across parts of central Montana with some increase in lightning activity over the past couple of hours. For tonight, it appears there could be two potential scenarios to play out according to the CAMS. Scenario 1, would be lead to more of a supercell threat with an earlier onset time. Scenario 2, would see convection coming out of Montana in clusters / lines with a later onset time. For now, we are learning more towards scenario 2 which lines up better with the upper and low level forcing. We can also already see signs of the convection in Montana forming while low clouds are lingering in southern Saskatchewan with no convective development as of this writing. The first scenario would lead to a bigger hail threat, but for now will stay with half dollar size hail and 70 mph winds since we are learning more towards scenario 2. Overall, the current SPC Day 1 outlooks seems to cover things well with the best environment for severe thunderstorms in the western part of the state. That is where instability will linger longer in conjunction with 40 kts of deep layer shear. The low level jet will also be a little more pronounced in the western part of the state this evening before decreasing overnight. Convection could linger into Saturday morning, but overall the trend should be for it to wane as the better upper level forcing moves east. Later Saturday morning into the afternoon could easily be dry, but there does appear to be a weak boundary left by the morning convection, and it`s possible something could fire along that. That being said, once the morning convection ends, most CAMS are dry into the afternoon. Will go ahead and continue to carry a slight chance pop into the afternoon in case something tries to linger, or in case there is additional development later in the day. Outside of the thunderstorm chances, the other story will be the heat. Morning thunderstorms should give way to partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Those temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will make for a hot afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A chance of thunderstorms could linger into Saturday night, but hot temperatures on Sunday will likely be the main story to end the weekend. Looking at high temperatures on Sunday, NBM percentiles show fairly high confidence in the hot temperatures, with some locations potentially reaching near 100 degrees. Currently dewpoints are expected to be a little lower on Sunday in the west, which is where the hottest temperatures are forecast. This generally keeps apparent temperatures in the upper 90s for Sunday, though a few locations could definitely approach 100 degrees. The upper ridge in place across the region then begins to get knocked down a bit early next week as a series of waves move across it. Medium range models are starting to show some agreement that a stronger wave will move across Monday night into Tuesday, which could trigger a more organized chance of thunderstorms. SPC has already highlighted northern parts of the state for Monday. Behind the wave / cold front, cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with seasonably warm temperatures then to end the week. Tuesday could also be breezy / windy with the ECMWF EFI still suggesting the potential for advisory level winds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through western and central North Dakota late this evening through Saturday morning. Best potential for impacts will be in the west, at KXWA-KDIK. Coverage becomes less certain further east. Erratic gusty winds and hail will be possible with thunderstorms tonight. Outside of brief periods of reduced visibility and ceilings under thunderstorms, VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM...King AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
730 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .DISCUSSION... EVENING UPDATE: 0100Z A quasi-cold front is moving west to east across the area and leaving a narrow 40 mph wake behind it. Airmass thunderstorms are briefly attempting to ride the boundary for about 20-30 minutes before crashing and then blowing up a new one ahead of the old. With this in mind have decided to update the hourly data of the forecast for the next 9 hours to time the frontal boundary on wind gusts and PoPs and found that the last two runs of the HRRR are almost dead on target. They also worked rather well for Temps and RH. Looking forward we will also continue to monitor thunderstorms on the boundary into the evening as brief gusts up to 50 to 65 mph are possible with the largest of the cells when they collapse. GAH AFTERNOON UPDATE (2200Z): No major updates to the forecast this afternoon. Overall situation remains stable from previous iterations. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The primary focus of the forecast is on thunderstorm timing and severe potential today, along with monitoring heat concerns this weekend. A slight risk of severe storms exists across much of the county warning area for this afternoon and evening, with the main threat being damaging winds. Capping will be a limiting factor, but enough boundary layer mixing should occur for downdraft potential by mid afternoon that also presents a modest hail threat. Early afternoon development over the higher terrain of central Montana is indicated by the convective allowing models, with activity spreading east/northeast before exiting into North Dakota late in the evening. High temperatures should reach the mid to upper 90s both today and tomorrow, likely falling just short of 100 due to some clouds and low-level moisture advecting into the area. On Sunday, clear skies and slightly lower dew points should lead to some near record highs in the triple digits for some, though limiting the severity of apparent temperatures a bit. Another Heat Advisory looks all but certain, with borderline Excessive Heat Warning conditions remaining possible. By Monday, the ridge likely begins to break down with a cold front looking to take the edge off the heat and bring the next chance for showers/thunderstorms. Timing of the front and cloud cover make Monday`s highs more uncertain than usual. Nevertheless, more seasonably hot conditions with highs on either side of 90 into midweek seems reasonable given mostly zonal flow. -Zanker && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0100Z EXPECTED FLIGHT CAT: VFR to MVFR DISCUSSION: Mainly VFR. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move east across the area and may impact KGDV and KSDY briefly. MVFR visibility is possible with any direct hits through this evening. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds being the primary threat. Fair weather returns late tonight into Saturday. Winds: Southeast winds becoming southwest today at 5-10 knots, then light and variable overnight. Gusty winds due to passing thunderstorms may impact the vicinity of KGDV or KSDY, so amendments are possible. Main direction with thunderstorms is out of the west around 35 kts. GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
410 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Locally strong trades will focus moisture associated with decaying Tropical Cyclone Darby over Windward Big Island and Maui where periods of heavy rain can be expected on Saturday. Elsewhere, fairly typical trade wind weather can be expected. Winds will decrease and conditions will improve by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... The latest trend in the modeling and the most recent observations has been a slight northward adjustment for Darby as it decays while passing south of the Big Island on Saturday. While this adjustment is not sufficient to change the overall flavor of the event for the Big Island and Maui County, it did warrant an upward nudge in forecast winds. Given the potential early- Saturday start time of stronger trades for the windier areas on these islands, bumped winds up a couple mph and issued a wind advisory beginning at 6am Saturday morning. Additionally, with the mid- level stable layer helping to accelerate winds over the summits, a wind advisory was issued for Haleakala Summit and the Big Island summits as well. Forecast rainfall remains unchanged and something in the neighborhood of 2-4" with local maxima up to 5" appears reasonable for the Big Island. The HRRR still resides firmly on the wetter end of the spectrum with its 18z run while the 18z GFS made a noteworthy move toward the wetter end as well. This was enough evidence to warrant shying away from this morning`s drier hi-res runs. Given that these hi-res models are GFS-initialized, it wouldn`t be entirely surprising if the next round of hi-res guidance came in wetter than the morning runs. Showers will begin over downslope portions of Windward Big Island early Saturday and will expand upslope as deeper moisture arrives. Low stability in the lowest 12-14kft should help maximize the efficiency of orographic forcing, but ultimately mid-level stability will limit higher end rainfall potential. The duration of heavier rainfall on Windward Maui should limit totals there to 1-2" during the course of the day. Heavier rain will be possible on a very localized basis as deep moisture advancing over the high terrain during peak heating supports a chance for thunderstorms over both windward and leeward zones. Fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail for the remaining islands throughout this time with breezy to locally strong trades helping to offset the slight increase in humidity associated with the incoming moist airmass. With upper ridging already in place, the trade inversion should quickly reestablish on Sunday as Darby`s moisture exits westward. This will support a quick return to a breezy and stable trade wind pattern to begin next week. && .AVIATION... Breezy to locally strong trade winds will continue for the rest of today and into the weekend as high pressure remains anchored well north of the state. As a result, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely be needed for at least the next few days. Afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations show that the band of enhanced showers and low clouds that moved into windward sections of many of the main Hawaiian Islands has dissipated. VFR flight conditions currently prevail at all area terminals, and this is expected to continue into the evening for most locations. Late tonight into Saturday, Tropical Storm Darby is forecast to track westward and pass south of the Big Island as it weakens. This will result in an increase of low clouds and showers across the eastern end of the state. Prevailing MVFR with occasional IFR conditions, mountain obscuration, and a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible for portions of the Big Island on Saturday. && .MARINE... Tropical Storm Darby and is located roughly 430 miles east- southeast of the Big Island this morning. This system has been moving westward at about 17 kt. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center`s latest forecast indicates Darby will continue to weaken, and is expected to enter the southeast offshore waters late tonight as a Tropical Storm. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters. A surface high pressure system will remain far north of the islands through early next week. In the near-term, the trades winds are expected to strengthen as Tropical Storm Darby moves closer to the region. Depending on how close Darby passes to the Big Island, Gale force winds are possible over the south waters of the Big Island. In addition, combined seas will be elevated and rough due to a combination of local wind waves, and large south and east swells. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all Hawaiian Waters through Saturday afternoon and may need to be extended. A historic south swell is anticipated this weekend with surf heights expected to reach High Surf Warning threshold along south facing shores by Saturday night. Forerunners are already starting to arrive and surf will be gradually building tonight and throughout the day Saturday. The peak of the swell looks to be Saturday night through Sunday with wave heights of 12 to 16 feet with occasional sets of 20 feet expected. This swell should slowly subside through the first half of next week. Surf along east facing shores will remain elevated and rough into early next week. Swells generated by Darby are expected to add to the mix, with the longer period energy arriving tonight, and likely peaking on Saturday. This swell will mainly impact east facing shores of the Big Island, where a High Surf Advisory is possible for Saturday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Monday for all south facing shores. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Saturday for portions of Maui County, Haleakala Summit, portions of the Big Island, and the Big Island summits. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel- Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Kino
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1053 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Just some minor adjustments to sky grids to follow most recent satellite trends along with the usual interpolation of T/Td observations into the forecast. Increasing mid/high clouds tonight due to decaying activity upstream should help limit radiational cooling and river valley fog relative to previous nights. Some guidance such as NAM and HRRR continue to show some very weak simulated reflectivity values as the shortwave approaches this morning so left the slight chance of showers untouched. Previous forecast remains largely on track and follows below. Updated zones have been sent as well. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions expected at all terminals throughout the TAF period. High clouds will advect into the region from the N/NW tonight ahead of a decaying MCS upstream. High cloud coverage should limit radiational cooling, leading to little to no fog tonight, thus, fog has been left out of TAFs. Some low VFR sct/bkn clouds will be possible by the morning hours as the shortwave responsible approaches the area. Brief VCSH or -SHRA cannot be totally ruled out at TYS/TRI but confidence is too low to include mention at this time. Winds less than 10 kts throughout the period as well. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM EDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ SHORT TERM (Tonight and Saturday)... Radar shows a few pinhead showers near the mountains and in SW VA. Coverage should remain isolated at most through the afternoon, and any activity should dissipate by 00Z as surface heating drops off. Tonight, the MCS over IL will continue to track southeast. As it encounters a drier and more stable air mass in eastern KY, convective activity should decrease. There may not be much precip left once it reaches our NW border around 12Z, but the HRRR and FV3 show some light precip near our border around this time. So a slight chance PoP will be mentioned in the KY border counties tomorrow morning. Clouds will be scattered to broken as the remnants of the MCS move through. In the afternoon, we should see better convective potential than we have seen today, as the midlevel cap will be weaker and low to midlevel moisutre appears more plentiful in forecast soundings. There could also be lingering boundaries from the morning activity. Will have a slight chance PoP east of I-40 in the afternoon. DGS LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)... Key Message: 1. Rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week. 2. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the forecast period. Discussion: Ridging continues over the western United States as a shortwave moves towards us from the Midwest on Saturday night. This shortwave brings increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across East Tennessee on Sunday afternoon. By Monday morning, we will see a more pronounced upper level trough settling over the area. An associated cold front will be draped to our northwest across MO/IN/IL, which will provide better forcing and the potential for showers and thunderstorms across our area through Monday. By Monday night and into Tuesday this positively tilted trough will sprawl across the eastern United States, with embedded shortwaves allowing for summertime diurnally driven convection. Another cold front that is associated with low pressure over the Great Lakes will possibly push through Tennessee Thursday morning and into Friday, but timing is still uncertain. Moisture, instability, and troughing across the eastern US keeps us in an active pattern of summertime showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the extended period. As is typical with summer thunderstorms, any convection that does develop could produce localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Daily high temperatures are expected to be near seasonal through the period--most areas across East TN will reach the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s each day. Williams && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 92 72 92 73 / 0 10 10 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 90 71 90 71 / 0 20 10 50 50 Oak Ridge, TN 67 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 50 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 87 66 88 68 / 10 20 10 50 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
515 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures across coastal areas this afternoon with warmer temperatures across the interior. Hottest inland locations should peak in the mid 90s to low 100s this afternoon. Expect additional warming on Saturday with a drying trend, especially for higher terrain. A weak cold front approaches on Sunday to start the next gradual cooling trend for the Bay Area and the Central Coast. No significant swings in temperatures expected next week. && of 01:46 PM PDT Friday...It`s a mostly sunny afternoon for California. Within our forecast area, we only have a few patchy areas of marine stratus around Pt Reyes, the SF Peninsula, and around the Monterey Peninsula. The marine layer has been hovering between approximately 1300 ft to 1800 ft across our CWA (based on both the Bodega Bay and Fort Ord profilers while also looking at RH observations in higher terrain). We expect that the building high pressure to the southeast of our CWA will start compressing the marine layer for Saturday. That means we could see lower marine stratus along the coast, possibly some patchy fog. It also means that we won`t have as much cool, moist marine air pushing inland. Thus, Saturday highs should be peaking in the upper 90s to around 104 for our hottest locations adjacent to the Central Valley. The 104 number will be for the Parkfield area in the SE corner of Monterey County. Looking at HeatRisk, we are at moderate levels across the interior which means that those sensitive to heat (elderly, sick, very young, pets) should take precautions by staying cool and hydrated during the hot afternoon hours. Besides Saturday being the warmest day of the week, we`ve also been monitoring whether there`s any potential for monsoonal moisture to move into our CWA. As we continue to look at hi-res models for Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, there are hints of instability across the southern portions of San Benito and Monterey counties, but it`s not a scenario that would be a slam dunk for the instability to trigger thunderstorms because the instability is borderline. Looking at the Total Totals Index, those southern areas of San Benito/Monterey counties are approaching 30, but we typically look for a value of 40 or more. Also checked model soundings and saw a blip of MUCAPE reaching around 200 J/kg in the very SE corner of San Benito on Sunday morning. In addition, there`s not a lot of moisture moving into our region. The HRRR and NAM tend to suggest that peak mid level moisture would be around 50 percent RH and it would not be long lasting. Overall, feel that the risk is rather low which coincides with NBM`s forecast of potential it shows interior CA having the potential for thunderstorms, but not in our CWA. The upper level trough over the Eastern Pacific will nudge closer to the coastline early next week which will put us in a very gradual cooling trend. Don`t expect any huge swings of temperatures, just a few degrees cooler each day. && of 5:04 PM PDT Friday...For the 00Z TAFs. Widespread VFR and breezy to gusty winds last until the late night. The compressed marine late will limit stratus development and movement until the late night. Expect IFR cigs to slowly fill over the Monterey Bay and coastal areas, as well as OAK, and at times for APC into the night. There will also be the potential for mist and patchy fog overnight. Moments of LIFR CIGs will affect the Monterey Bay terminals, early Saturday Morning. Widespread VFR returns in the mid to late morning followed by another batch of breezy to gusty afternoon winds. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to remain gusty until the early night before settling into more moderate westerly winds. Stratus will struggle to filter into the the SF Bay into the night, but will begin to fill over OAK in the late night causing IFR. SFO looks to only go scattered and stay so through most of the night and into the early morning. Winds will stay moderate into the early Saturday afternoon. Westerly winds pick up in the mid afternoon peaking around 18 kts with 27 kt gusts. These winds will linger into the night before becoming moderate again. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay...VFR through the evening and then IFR into the night with light winds. Moments of IFR with patches of fog and mist will affect the terminals into the early morning. Expect a return to VFR in the late morning with westerly winds becoming moderate to breezy into Saturday afternoon.&& of 2:49 AM PDT Friday...The San Francisco Golden Gate tidal prediction is still expected around high tide around 6.66 feet at 1:25 AM PDT Saturday morning. Despite the fact that the tides heights are diminishing, coastal flooding is still a risk. This potential is greatest for vulnerable, low-lying, portions of the San Francisco bayshore which typically experience King Tide flooding. Another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for areas along the San Francisco Bay Shoreline for early Saturday morning. While it is expected that this advisory could potentially be the last of the advisories for this round of King Tides, it will be re-evaluated Saturday morning. Lastly, keep in mind that these high tides will occur overnight in the early morning hours. Drive with caution on any bayshore roads as it may be difficult to see if low-lying areas have water on them in the dark. && of 05:12 PM PDT Friday...Hazardous, wind-driven seas continue today and are generating steep waves up to 8 to 10 feet in the outer waters. Gale force gusts continue along the Big Sur coast south of Point Sur, and are also likely this evening near coastal jet regions south of Point Arena and south of Pigeon Point. These breezy NW winds and steep hazardous seas will likely continue through the weekend, along with a pair of weak, longer period S to SW swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...Coastal Flood Advisory...CAZ006-506-508 GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman AVIATION: Murdock MARINE: Murdock Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
802 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 No changes to the current forecast. Weak impulse upstream could bring a few showers to the area before or around midnight. This is currently depicted in the grids, and Hrrr still shows the possibility. Otherwise, tover values all positive so not expecting fog. overnight lows/sky coverage still looks to be in good shape. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Nashville has once again hit 90+ degrees today tying the 6th longest streak of consecutive 90 degrees or warmer days. Looking at visible satellite, a few areas of enhanced Cu agitation can be noted just north of the TN/KY border, along the Tennessee River, and near Maury county. Looking at radar, a few speckles are showing up, so a few lucky locations could pick up a some rain drops this afternoon. The high resolution models have additional isolated showers moving into the area from the north overnight ahead of a weak disturbance, so a small slight chance PoP was included. Saturday will be a similar day today with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper ridge will start to retreat westward Saturday night with a shortwave disturbance riding the eastern edge of the ridge. This could provide enough lift for some showers and possible a storm after midnight particularly in the northwest . && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 A larger scale trough will approach the area on Sunday leading to scattered showers and storms Sunday through Monday as the trough axis slowly swings through the area. Looking at model soundings, it is possible to have a few strong storms Sunday afternoon as there is ample instability and some dry air in the mid levels which could produce some strong winds. Highs on Sunday will depend on how long convection takes to develop. Right now, I think Nashville will still squeeze out at least 90 degrees. Monday looks less likely with upper troughing and ample cloud cover. The trough will clear the area Monday night with weak ridging replacing it. Temperatures will climb on Tuesday with most of the area back in the low to mid 90s. Right now, Wednesday looks like the warmest day next week with highs approaching the mid to upper 90s with dew points likely in the 70s. This means afternoon heat index values around 105 and even a couple degrees above. As far as rain chances after Monday, diurnally driven isolated showers and storms will be possible each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period, with some low and mid level cloudiness tonight and scattered cumulus on Saturday. VCSH is possible Saturday afternoon but too uncertain too include mention attm. Light east to southeast winds tonight will become southerly on Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 95 75 91 / 20 10 30 60 Clarksville 71 96 73 89 / 20 10 50 70 Crossville 65 87 68 84 / 10 10 10 60 Columbia 70 94 72 90 / 20 10 30 50 Cookeville 67 90 71 86 / 20 10 20 60 Jamestown 66 88 69 84 / 10 10 20 60 Lawrenceburg 69 93 72 90 / 10 10 20 50 Murfreesboro 69 95 73 90 / 10 10 30 60 Waverly 72 96 73 90 / 20 10 50 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......21 SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
826 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .UPDATE... Thunderstorm activity has diminished with a few lingering showers and storms near the ID/WY border exiting the area. There is still some pockets of mid level instability across the region, primarily across SW MT, where some additional isolated shower/thunderstorm development remains possible through midnight. Gusty surface winds associated with outflow and remnant cold pools from earlier thunderstorm activity should diminish fairly quickly over the next couple of hrs with generally light winds through the rest of the night. Potential for fog development exists in the West Yellowstone area and Centennial Valley after skies clear later tonight with wet ground from evening rainfall. Hoenisch && .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms will diminish this evening, with fairly quiet conditions expected overnight. For Saturday and Sunday, there is a very small chance for a passing thunderstorm, otherwise expect hot temperatures. On Monday, it turns windy, with afternoon temperatures not quite as hot as previous days. && .AVIATION... 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022 (16/00Z TAF period) Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to move across SW MT this evening with an isolated thunderstorm or two also continuing near the AB border. Brief MVFR/IFR possible at some SW MT terminals through 03z but most areas continue to see some gusty and shifting wind from outflow that occurred with earlier thunderstorms in the area. After 03z, expect VFR and generally light winds across the area with some potential for fog development at KWYS after midnight. Hoenisch Refer to for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2022/ Tonight through Sunday...Thunderstorms will gradually diminish from west to east. The HRRR does have a few storms redeveloping around 7 PM, but confidence is low in this activity being widespread or severe later this evening. For Saturday and Sunday, generally hot temperatures are expected over the region. At this time, no heat advisory will be issued, as much of the region is only is only in level 2 for heat impacts. Portions of Blaine/Fergus are a level 3, but much of that area is in the rural portions of the county. There is a small chance for passing mountain shower/thunderstorm on Sat/Sun...but again confidence is low at this time for precipitation over the weekend. Monday through Friday...Overall much of next week will have above temperatures over our CWA. On Monday, a fairly strong upper level disturbance will move eastward along the US/Canadian border. Expect gusty winds to develop over North Central MT as it moves through. At this time, wind speeds are expected to remain below warning criteria. Additionally, no fire highlights are planned for either. The overall chances for any precipitation from Tue thru Friday will be quite low. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 57 95 56 97 / 10 10 10 10 CTB 57 89 56 88 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 60 93 61 98 / 20 10 0 10 BZN 54 93 56 96 / 30 10 0 10 WYS 43 83 45 86 / 50 10 0 20 DLN 51 89 54 91 / 30 10 0 20 HVR 63 94 63 96 / 20 0 10 10 LWT 58 90 58 95 / 10 10 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
258 PM PDT Fri Jul 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Ample monsoon moisture will remain across much of the region today bringing the potential for thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially in high terrain areas. Slight drying is expected Saturday with reduced chances for thunderstorms. A southeast flow will continue early next week with chances for afternoon thunderstorms primarily over the mountains. Outside of any precipitation, above normal temperatures and moderate to major heat risk concerns will be possible Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Opted to issue some short-fuse Flood Watches for flash flooding potential in the high terrain areas of Clark and Lincoln counties this morning due to near record PWAT values and available convective potential across the region. As mentioned in previous discussions, this sets the stage for convection and a marginal risk of flash flooding for most areas, but WPCs morning upgrade to a "slight" risk for parts of Nevada and Arizona illustrates the growing concern for very heavy rainfall rates, albeit mostly isolated to high elevations. 12 HREF data shows potential for 2yr ARI values being met in the Spring, Sheep, and McCullough range with ~10-20% chances for 5 yr values as well. The 12Z VEF sounding showed plenty of inhibition in the low levels this morning but as convective temperatures are reached this afternoon, showed the ability for lifted parcels to tap into plenty of instability aloft. Also of note is a band of meager vorticity advection in the RAP and confirmed on WV imagery, draped across Clark and Lincoln counties extending into western Utah. As most of today`s convection will be fueled by heating and instability, expecting this to drop off quickly after 01Z for most areas with the exception of Lincoln county where storms could produce strong outflows and continue to create new updrafts as they progress eastward from central Nevada and the Sierra. Moving into the weekend, monsoonal moisture begins to decrease a bit, but still plenty around for additional afternoon convection. However, what meager dynamic lifting we may have to play with today, even less is expected Saturday and Sunday. So again, PoPs/QPF will favor high terrain areas that will add in orographic ascent to the heating of the day. .LONG TERM...Next Week. Medium range models indicate only subtle changes in the position over the Four Corners high through much of next week but strengthening overall...though the trend is for it to drift toward southern Nevada. This would lead to increasing highs for early in the week and a gradual drying trend throughout the week. Easterly flow develops over southern Arizona and California directing the moisture largely south of our forecast area. This is reflected by afternoon chances for thunderstorms over the high terrain Sunday- Tuesday then decreasing noticeably Wednesday- Friday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Thunderstorms will continue in the nearby mountains through the evening hours. There is a chance outflow winds from these storms could impact the terminal at times, but if they do it would most likely be between 02-06Z. If a storm moves over the terminal, look for CIGS to briefly drop to around 6-7k feet. The general wind flow will be southeast with speeds around 8-10kts, becoming southerly during the evening hours. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Showers and thunderstorms can be expected around the area through the evening hours. Outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning will be possible with these storms. These storms have been more concentrated across Mohave and Clark Counties, but the threat will be farther north across Nye and Lincoln counties later in the evening. Expect CIGS around 10-12k feet, but may lower to around 8k feet with storms as they pass. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...TB3 LONG TERM...Gorelow/TB3 AVIATION...Berc For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter