Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/12/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

 945 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds tonight as a cold front approaches from the
west. Showers and thunderstorms move into the Finger Lakes late
tonight with additional showers and thunderstorms developing
area wide Tuesday afternoon. Cooler weather expected wednesday
into the end of the week with a few isolated afternoon showers
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...

The Lake Ontario lake breeze made it to the Finger Lakes region
prior to sunset and quickly brought down temperatures. Most of
the region is now in the 70s though there are still some low
80s out there. Hourly temps were adjusted once again, mainly due
to forecasted temps being too high compared to latest
observations. The rest of the forecast was doing well with only
minor changes needed.

Looking at the 00z runs of the HRRR and RAP, both are trending
a little slower with the morning round of showers/storms,
keeping the region mostly dry until around 09 to 10z. The 00z
NAM is not in yet but we will have to see if that will trend
later as well. For now, left PoPs as is, but future updates may
need to slow down the arrival of this first round of showers and
storms. Even with what guidance has come in so far, the best
chances continue to be across CNY.

600 PM Update...

Not much to change in the forecast for this evening. The warm
spots this afternoon were in the northern Finger Lakes while
conditions were more pleasant from the Twin Tiers and
southward. Hourly temps and dewpts were touched up for this
update. Winds also needed some minor adjustments to better match
obs.

310 PM Update...

With mostly sunny skies and dry soils, temperatures have gotten
into the mid to upper 80s for most locations this afternoon
with a few 90s across the Finger Lakes. Clouds increase tonight
as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes region. An MCS is
making its way across Michigan this afternoon though the
thunderstorm activity is waning. Even though the complex will
likely dissipate before reaching the region, a vort max that is
generated by the MCS will be able to spark off some showers and
thunderstorms as it gets to the east side of Lake Erie.
Forecast soundings indicate that a deep layer of dry air near
the surface across most of CNY into NEPA will limit the coverage
of the storms tonight with the Finger Lakes having the best
chance of seeing the precipitation with a shallower layer of dry
air.

Tomorrow, a cold front approaches from the west with falling
500 mb heights. The EML that we have been watching the last few
days looks like it will be mostly mixed out by the time it gets
here. The MCS currently occurring is helping to mix out the
EML. Even though most places will be dry tomorrow morning, the
few showers and associated clouds limits day time heating with
models trending lower with overall instability tomorrow,
especially west of I81 and north of I86. More sunshine in NEPA
into the Catskill region will still allow for more instability
with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Strong shear of 45 to 50 knots
with strait hodographs indicate that at least a few of the
thunderstorms that develop will contain strong to damaging wind
gust. SPC has moved the slight risk a little farther to the SE
relative to yesterdays update.

Once the cold front is through, CAA drops 850 mb temperatures
down to about 10C with low level stratus post frontal. A few
sprinkles or light rain showers are possible mainly across
higher elevations and ridge tops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update..

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the region
on Wednesday as upper level trough will be centered over the
Northeast U.S. Showers and storms will be mostly diurnally
driven and with the loss of heating, shower activity will
diminish after sunset Wednesday evening.

Although the upper trough remains in our vicinity on Thursday,
high pressure starts building into the region. Forecast
soundings are showing very dry air aloft, so have taken out
shower chances for now. Dry conditions can be expected through
the remainder of the period as dry high pressure continues to
build in from Canada Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM Update...

High pressure will dominate the weather through most of the
weekend. Models start to diverge in solutions by Sunday with a
warm air advection pattern and upper trough pushing in from the
west. GFS is most robust with shower and thunderstorm activity
on Sunday into Monday, while the Euro keeps the area mostly dry
through the weekend with showers arriving on Monday. For now,
stuck with the National Blend of Models solution due to the
uncertainty, which spreads out shower chances Sunday and through
the day Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the night, and into the
morning hours, though a few showers and perhaps the odd
thunderstorm will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches
the region. Showers would most likely be north of the NY/PA
line, and between 08-13Z from west to east. There`s a low
probability of thunder at ITH and ELM as well, but too low to
mention in the TAFs.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon, with the best chances being after 21Z at AVP. Chances
are high enough there to warrant a VCTS, but any restrictions of
MVFR or worse would be brief.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night...Scattered TSRA/SHRA with occasional restrictions
possible before 06Z Wed, patchy fog possible through Wed AM.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, but brief
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon and early evening.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR expected at this time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/HLC
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/HLC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG/MPH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

 1045 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather this evening will give way to increasing rain
chances overnight tonight, and then additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. A few storms may briefly become strong
to severe. An additional front will leave some chances for
showers the rest of the midweek, followed by a drying trend
with seasonable temperatures expected heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1040 PM EDT Monday...Everything continues to be on track
this evening as cloud cover associated with a warm front
overspreads the North Country. A few showers and thunderstorms
have been seen on the Canadian side of the St. Lawrence River
already but these are expected to pass harmlessly to our north
and west. Otherwise, shower and thunderstorm activity will
begin to move into the St. Lawrence Valley over the next few
hours before spreading eastward. As a heads up to tomorrow`s
severe potential, everything continues to look on track. The
preliminary data from the latest NAM/NAM3/FV3-HighRes shows all
the ingredients we have been advertising. The big question still
remains the early afternoon dry-slot but upstream convection
may be able to saturate the environment a little quicker like
recent runs of the HRRR have shown.

Previous Discussion...Weather conditions have been quite
pleasant, even if a bit on the warm side, due to low dewpoints and a
steady breeze. There are a few holdouts in the upper 70s, but most
are in the low to mid 80s at this time, with pockets of high
clouds here and there. Anticipate increasing dewpoints tonight
and a warm night overall as a warm front approaches and quickly
lifts north after midnight. Shortly after its passage, moisture
will slide eastwards as the upper ridge and surface high
responsible move farther east over the Atlantic Ocean. This
should result in a relatively warm night with mainly 60s across
the region, and widespread precipitation, primarily over
northern New York during the overnight hours. The synoptic
forcing associated with this is supportive of some convection,
and there`s some elevated instability, again mainly for northern
New York. Thus, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected, which will lift southwest to northeast and exit across
northern Vermont. A few convective allowing models allow
additional convection to fire on the south side of this feature
and impact southern Vermont, while others leave southern Vermont
dry. Given the south to southwesterly flow, this seems
reasonable, but meso-beta elements suggest some right movers may
move just south of due east. So, it`s possible with efficient
warm, moist advection via a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet that
south-central Vermont won`t be completely dry.

Late Tuesday morning, we should experience some partial clearing as
this activity shifts east. This will be the time frame where we`ll
be closely monitoring how well we can warm up and destabilize before
convection initiates near or just after noon. Upstream satellite
imagery in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin show a narrow dry slot
behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front. We should see
temperatures climb towards the upper 70s to lower 80s at this time.
Morning rains and advection of a subtropical air mass into our
region should bring dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 over
the region, and the relatively dry air in the dry slot will
yield good low-level lapse rates. Such will result in CAPE
values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg while there`s still fairly fast
flow across the region. Thus, we expect discrete cells to
develop and then quickly race northeastwards. While we do have
shear and instability present, the low-level jet will be quickly
moving east and away, along with little surface convergence or
upper level divergence to support updrafts. With dry air as
well, it will be difficult to produce organized, long-lasting
activity. With the pros listed earlier and these cons the idea
of a marginal to slight risk of severe storms from the Storm
Prediction Center seems quite reasonable.

Activity shifts east of Vermont after 7 PM or so, and then we await
the actual wind shift. There should be a few more showers and an
isolated rumble of thunder in and around midnight, but trending
drier and cooler. Overnight lows should fall into the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...Synoptic pattern supports mid/upper lvl
trof acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS with weak embedded
s/w`s. Overall moisture content of airmass is marginal with pw
values btwn 0.70-0.90 as heat/humidity remain to our south. Best
forcing with s/w energy and pocket of 700 to 500mb rh arrives around
18z acrs the SLV, but dives southeast and weakens toward 00z Thurs.
Have continued with previous fcst idea of schc/chc pops with main
focus over northern NY into central/southern VT areas, but overall
areal coverage wl be limited. If model trends continue these values
could be knocked back into schc range over the next 1 to 2 cycles.
Progged 925mb temps near 18C should get most areas into the mid 70s
to lower 80s range, with warmest here in the CPV urban areas. Sfc
based instability looks marginal acrs our most of our cwa with CAPE
values <500 J/kg, but did note slightly higher values over
Rutland/Windsor counties around 21z Weds, supporting the potential
for a rumble or two. Weds night a relatively quiet night anticipated
as energy aloft lingers in mid/upper lvl trof acrs our cwa. A spot
shower or two is possible, but expecting most dry conditions to
prevail. Clouds and some weak llvl caa/gradient flow wl limit temps
from dropping too much, but lows generally upper 40s to mid/upper
50s acrs our fa. Another comfortable sleeping night ahead.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...Mid/upper lvl trof prevails thru the rest
of the work week, with several embedded 5h vorts traveling acrs our
fa. Next in the series of s/w`s arrives on Thurs aftn with limited
moisture but some pockets of instability. Have mention chc pops with
schc for thunder, given sfc based cape values in the 400-800 J/kg
range. By Friday a 1020mb sfc high pres is progged to be directly
overhead and continue into Saturday. The only target for opportunity
in this time frame was to lower min temps both Thurs and Friday
nights, with readings expected in the mid/upper 40s to mid/upper
50s. In addition, did knock down aftn dwpts by 3 to 5 degrees as
soundings support drier air aloft mixing toward the sfc. As sfc high
pres shifts to our east, a return south/southwest flow wl develop
late Sat into early next week. This wl produce warming thermal
profiles, along with increasing dwpts with values back into the 60s
anticipated. Progged 925mb temps btwn 19C-22C support highs upper
70s to mid 80s for Sat thru Monday with lows falling back into the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Warmest in the urban heat islands of the CPV,
while coolest in the NEK/SLK regions. Have continued with very low
chc pops for Sunday aftn and again on Monday for aftn/evening
showers/storms. Guidance begins to diverge on timing details and
evolution/track of potential next system for Sunday/Monday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds will
continue through 06Z. Thereafter, a warm front will begin to
lift across the region with winds shifting to the south and
becoming increasingly gusty between 06Z and 12Z. A period of
rain showers and possible thunder will accompany the warm front
during the second half of the overnight period. The best
thunderstorm chances remain across northern New York but it`ll
be something we will be watching closely should this change. In
addition to the increasing surface winds, a strong low level jet
between 35 and 40 knots will set up right off the deck leading
to period of wind shear during the 09Z to 15Z timeframe. A brief
break in showers is expected during the late morning and early
afternoon hours before another round of showers and
thunderstorms between 18Z and 00Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Clay



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

 1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022


.AVIATION...

Broken line of showers and thunderstorms working across mid-Michigan
early tonight will continue to slide across the terminal corridor
for the first couple hours of next TAF period. Cold front quickly
follows behind this line allowing slightly drier air to work back
into SE MI. This likely isn`t sufficient for significant clearing
but enough to allow for more breaks in the deck early this morning.
Secondary cold front drops south into the this Tuesday afternoon
reinforcing/expanding ~5kft cu. A couple showers or storms possible
with this second front this evening however confidence in one
reaching a terminal isn`t high enough to include mention at
this time (best potential would be over the northern sites).

For DTW...Broken line of storms vacate the area by the first hour or
two of the new forecast period with the associated cold front
crossing early this morning setting up W-NW flow for today. Drier
air post-front isn`t able to clear clouds out today with SCT to BKN
ceilings around 5kft possible throughout the day.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and Tuesday.

* Moderate for thunderstorms - especially in the vicinity - between
  06-08Z tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

UPDATE...

Small line of deep convection over Western Lower Michigan has
developed within a ribbon of advancing deeper instability along a
limiting streamline evident in GOES-East Channel 9 imagery. Isolated
showers over Central Lower Michigan are along the leading edge of
this deeper instability. Deep layer shear is sufficient to support
balanced convection into the early mornings hours, with an
interesting anti-cyclonic shear character within the inflow layer -
suggesting the ability to keep the inflow breathing freely. Given the
orientation of the forcing feature, current translation of the
convective features, and the aforementioned shear configuration -
expect the activity to persist, likely at sub-severe levels. Any
propagating cells that migrates more southeast will posses an uptick
in intensity worthy of attention. Extrapolation and latest CAM
guidance offers a timing after 10pm across the Saginaw Valley, toward
midnight for Flint and the Thumb, and an hour or so later for Metro
Detroit. Forecast was updated to reflect the refined timing of the
shower and storm chances.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

DISCUSSION...

An area of showers originating from previous thunderstorm activity
over Lake Michigan earlier today is working across the region this
afternoon. This elevated convection was initially riding the eastern
edge of the inbound moist and unstable air mass, but has clearly
outpaced it as radar and satellite trends continue to show its
demise as it reaches the still weakly stable and drier environment
over the eastern half of the state. Do still expect the shortwave
over southern Wisconsin to draw in better low-level moisture and
instability tonight, but weak subsidence in the wake of this initial
convection will likely act to suppress convection through much of
the evening as ascent/low-level convergence is overall lacking until
the wave itself and associated cold front move in overnight.

Hi-res guidance today has overall had a poor grasp on the early
afternoon activity, but recent hourly runs of the RAP and HRRR that
at least acknowledge this convection do favor a later arrival of the
unstable conditions tonight. Scattered showers/storms will still be
possible ahead of and along the cold front that works in late
tonight, but with a shorter window for better instability to build
in, overall prospects for severe storms tonight look to be lower
than earlier data suggested. Won`t be able to rule out a threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts with unidirectional bulk 0-6km wind
shear profiles on the order of 40+ kt suggesting potential for
linear segments to develop. The favored corridor for this better
wind shear and the best forcing will be north of I-69, but the best
instability may hold off to the south of I-94 tonight.

Weak subsidence in the wake of early morning fropa should bring
about dry conditions for much of the mid to late morning hours
Tuesday. The longwave trough will however remain parked over the
Great Lakes with renewed shower/non-severe thunderstorm chances
developing during the afternoon tomorrow as the diurnal cycle
produces weak instability. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will
filter in through the day on a breezy WNW wind. Highs reach mainly
into the lower 80s.

A more significant shortwave will drop through the longwave
troughing late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. With
little to no instability in place, this feature and the associated
cold front should pass through with little fanfare. 850mb temps do
take another step downward to around 10C on Wednesday, supportive of
highs in the mid 70s to around 80. Weak diurnal instability brings
another chance of showers and/or non-severe storms on Wednesday as
the troughing lingers overhead. The trough finally makes its
departure on Thursday with strong height rises in its wake causing
high pressure to expand across the area. This spells a quiet late
week period with high temps rebounding into the low to mid 80s by
Saturday.

MARINE...

A cold front is still slated to drop through the region tonight,
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms along with it. A first
band of showers is currently passing through southern Lake Huron but
will be weakening over the next couple hours. The chance for
stronger storms is still there for this evening into tonight along
the front. Prefrontal winds are gusting into the low 20 knot range
but the lack of 25 knot gusts near the water will warrant allowing
the Small Craft Advisories to expire at 4pm today. Winds will veer
more westerly tonight after the front and veer further to the
northwest on Tuesday behind a secondary front. This second front may
cause a few more showers and thunderstorms to develop in the
afternoon. A third round of showers may sweep through on Wednesday
before quieter weather moves in mid week with an area of high
pressure building in.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight ahead of a
cold front that will move through early Tuesday morning. A muggier
air mass will continue to work into the region this evening which
will enable any stronger storms to produce heavy rainfall rates.
Storms will be moving west to east at around 40 mph and basin-
average rainfall is expected to remain around a quarter to half inch
for those areas that do see storms. However, the strongest
thunderstorms will be capable of producing over one inch of rain in
a short period of time which could result in localized flooding.
Overall confidence in the coverage and magnitude of any excessive
rainfall remains low.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
UPDATE.......99
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....TF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 822 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late this evening
along a cold front. Otherwise, dry and seasonably hot weather will
persist through late week as a stable air mass settles over the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Continue to closely monitor the potential for storm development
this evening in an unstable but capped environment. 00Z KILX
sounding continues to show around 40 J/kg MLCIN capping
moderately strong instability just in excess of 3000 J/kg. Frontal
boundary and cu field is approaching the Illinois River Valley
this hour and weak convection was noted just before sunset west of
Peoria but the updraft was too weak to sustain itself. 00Z HRRR
rolling in now has pushed back convective initiation several hours
and now focuses the possibility closer to the I-70 corridor after
midnight tonight. While can`t completely rule out isolated storms
developing, the threat appears to be diminishing and most of the
area will remain dry overnight. Will cap PoPs in the slight
chance/isolated range the rest of the evening. Temperatures are on
track to fall into the mid to upper 60s north of I-72 and upper
60s to lower 70s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Two areas of interest stand out right now on visible satellite:
(1) a cu field extending along the I-72 corridor which is
associated with an outflow boundary from earlier convection, and
(2) another cu field along a slow-moving cold front that extends
from roughly UGN- to- OTM-to-EVU. Both of these boundaries exist
in an environment of impressive MLCINH, which doesn`t bode well
for severe convection over the next couple hours.

The severe weather potential then for tonight remains limited,
although parameter space does improve this evening as deep-layer
shear increases with an upper- level speed max digging into the
Lower Great Lakes region. This feature, along with a modest LLJ
veering in ahead of the weakly forced surface front, should
provide enough shear and buoyancy to support the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight.

At this point, we believe any storms that do develop along the
cold front tonight will not become rooted in the boundary layer
to support a damaging wind threat. The more likely solution is a
broken line of scattered, elevated thunderstorms where downdrafts
struggle to permeate the cap.

Pockets of heavy rainfall will accompany any storms that develop
and become organized tonight. This idea comes from the 12z HREF
guidance where localized amounts between 1-2" are possible east of
a Shelbyville-to-Bloomington line. Elsewhere, a few tenths of an
inch would be more common.

Dry conditions are a more sure bet into Tuesday as surface high
pressure settles in behind the departing cold front. Temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler as well with afternoon highs in the
low-to-mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

An anomalous upper-level ridge and expansive surface high pressure
will squelch precip chances through at least Thursday as
conditions remain stable over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures
during this stretch will be seasonably hot with NBM output
offering daily highs in the low-to-mid 80s and overnight lows near
60 degrees.

The forecast begins to exhibit some variability by Friday as a
mid-level disturbance rolls atop a robust 594mb ridge. This
disturbance could break the stretch of dry weather with a return
to wet and unsettled conditions over the weekend. Global models
and their envelop of ensemble solutions disagree on the strength
of this upper-level disturbance, with more semblance found in
timing.

As the upper-level disturbance becomes displaced further east
Sunday into Monday, its attendant cold front may washout somewhere
over central or northern Illinois. This diffuse surface boundary
may become the focus for additional shower or thunderstorm
development early next week, and this is reflected in the latest
NBM output with low chance PoPs (< 30%) both Sunday and Monday.

It should be mentioned at this point that it`s more likely for
the forecast to stay dry into early next week. Furthermore, even
if the aforementioned mid-level disturbance late this week fosters
MCS development, it`s unlikely to be a prolific rainmaker. This
has more to do with the origins of moisture. And, with a tropical
disturbance loitering somewhere along the Gulf Coast through most
of this period, any rich low-level moisture will likely be
deflected away from central Illinois. Instead, any rainfall that
does develop over the Plains late this week and into the weekend
will expel moisture with Pacific origins, which tends to be milder
and a little drier.

Temperatures Friday through Monday will remain in the low-to-mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

A weak cold front is sagging south across central Illinois this
evening. W/WSW winds ahead of the front will veer to the NW behind
the front and remain there through Tuesday. While couldn`t rule
out some tempo MVFR ceilings this evening, outside of any showers
and storms conditions will be VFR with skies clearing Tuesday. The
chance for storms this evening is diminishing but a few isolated
storms couldn`t be ruled out with BMI and possibly PIA having the
best chance, but overall this threat is low.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...MJA
SHORT TERM...MJA
LONG TERM...MJA
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Louisville KY

 953 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with mostly clear skies
in place. Keeping an eye on any upstream developments ahead of a
frontal boundary currently stretching from central IL/MO, and back
toward the southern Plains. So far, haven`t seen any development
ahead of this feature, and with the loss of daytime heating, it is
going to take a bit more triggering from a shortwave rotating
through the parent trough. The recent runs of the HRRR have been on
the slower side of the guidance envelope, and given the lack of
upstream development to this point, am starting to lean toward a
slower arrival of isolated to widely scattered precipitation toward
dawn on Tuesday. Will continue to keep a slight chance of a shower,
or perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, across our northern CWA in
the pre-dawn hours to around sunrise. We`ll see a relative lull in
any activity through late morning into the early afternoon before
more development is expected ahead of the boundary sagging south and
east through our area. Any PM activity is likely to be confined to
our far south and east CWA.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

High pressure continues to dominate the region with mostly sunny
skies and light winds. Latest surface analysis shows a string of low
pressure systems from Lake Superior to IA to KS pushing a cold front
through portions of the MS Valley and toward the OH Valley.

Expect quiescent conditions for the rest of today with a benign
layer of cirrus adorning crepuscular skies. A northwesterly
nocturnal LLJ will rejuvenate convective activity along the
aforementioned cold front overnight over central IN. Storms and
showers will weaken as they approach the OH River as most of the
energy remains well to the NE, but our southern Indiana counties
could hear a few cracks of thunder during the pre-dawn hours.
Morning showers south of the OH River will be possible, but these
will likely dissipate before reaching LEX.

Cloud cover will help to temper afternoon highs north of I-64 where
we expect to see mid to upper 80s. More insolation south of there
will allow temps to rise into the low 90s. This will also help to
fire off new convection along the same boundary, which will likely
be stretched just SE of a line from BWG-LEX. So expect a chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, especially in
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Synopsis...Mean mid-level wave pattern will primarily consist of a
West CONUS ridge steaming from a stationary high centered over the
Southwest US, troughing from the Midwest to the Northeast
reinforced by training shortwaves, and a closed low over the Gulf of
Mexico interacting with a front. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate the weather by advecting a drier and more stable airmass
behind Tuesday`s frontal passage (see Short Term section above).
Predictability of the synoptic features remains above-normal until
Friday, when models start to show disagreement on the strength and
degree of interaction between a shortwave moving along the ridge;s
edge and the Gulf of Mexico tropical low. Nonetheless, the trends
has been consistent indicating a wetter pattern for the weekend
starting Saturday afternoon.

Wednesday-Friday...Expect near-normal hot afternoon temperatures as
highs will linger in the upper 80s with some brief relief overnight
since lows will fall to the mid 60s. Another factor that will help
with the heat is the fact that dewpoints will stay in the low 60s
and possibly falling below 60 degrees on Friday. Some mid to upper
level clouds might move from the west on Wednesday ahead of a vort
max shifting through the Great lakes, but no rain is expected thanks
to the strong stability in place.

Weekend...Greatest change noted  with the latest deterministic runs
include the GFS depicting a deeper tropical low meandering over the
Gulf, aligning more towards the ECMWF and UKMET output. However, it
still favors some kind of early interaction with the midlatitude
shortwave while its counterparts do not. This can be explained by
analyzing the 500-mb vorticity field since the GFS has maintained an
stronger and more amplified shortwave. Along the same lines, strong
PVA ahead of the wave could promote convection, or even MCS
development, that explains Saturday`s rain chances over the
northwest portion of the CWA.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Mon Jul 11 2022

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. There is a
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes southwestward into
central Missouri this evening, and is expected to approach the
region by the pre-dawn hours tomorrow morning. As this front
approaches, expect increased mid-level cloud cover and vicinity
showers at HNB/SDF before/near sunrise tomorrow. After the cold
front passes through, winds will turn from a SSW component to a NW
flow by the late morning or early afternoon. Expect winds to
generally remain under 10kts for the period.

Storms should redevelop along the front tomorrow afternoon during
daytime heating. It`s possible BWG/LEX could see some VCTS tomorrow
afternoon towards the end of this TAF period, but not confident
enough to include any TS in TAFs at this time.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...BJS
Short Term...CG
Long Term...ALL
Aviation...CJP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

 909 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Confidence continues to diminish in footprint of convective
potential this evening, however ample conditional instability and
deep layer shear combo would continue to suggest that any decent
storms that manage to develop could present a damaging wind threat.
At this time, it would appear the best potential for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development would be with an outflow boundary
pushing south-southeastward from storms over southeast WI, or
along/ahead of weak cold front roughly along/south of the I-80
corridor.

At 845 pm, radar depicted an area of scattered thunderstorms over
far southeast WI and parts of southern Lake Michigan, moving to the
east over the lake. These storms were producing an outflow boundary,
which was pushing to the south-southeast at around 20 kt however,
which looks to move into far northeast IL around 930 pm. SPC
mesoanalysis data estimates 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE was in place
across northeast IL ahead of this boundary, with an aircraft ascent
sounding KMDW at 0045Z modified for current surface conditions
yielding around 1300 J/kg though with weak capping between 900-800
mb. Convergence along the outflow boundary may be able to initiate
isolated convective updrafts as it pushes south into northeast IL
after 930 pm, though even this may not be able to overcome the weak
low level lapse rates/capping. Thus confidence in convective
initiation is low.

If isolated storms are able to initiate however, either along the
outflow boundary or the weak cold front along/south of the I-80
corridor, MUCAPEs of AOA 2000 J/kg and effective deep shear of 50-55
kts would support the potential for organization (supercell
structure earlier with storm which passed across northern Cook
county late this afternoon). Largely unidirectional shear and weak
low level lapse rates would support mainly a damaging wind risk,
though again would expect overall coverage to remain fairly limited.
SPC has maintained a slight (level 2 of 5) risk with their 01Z
update through the remainder of the evening hours across roughly the
southeast half of the cwa for this possibility, though expect that
any such threat would be very isolated. It`s entirely possible no
storms develop at all. Isolated thunderstorm threat should end after
midnight, as the weak cold front sags southeast of the forecast
area.

Ratzer

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Through Tonight...

Looking forward to this afternoon and evening, our main forcing
mechanisms will approach from the north and west. A fairly anomalous
upper trough over the upper Midwest will spread southeastward and
steer a cold front toward the upper Mississippi valley. Height falls
ahead of the trough, right entrance of the jet core ahead of the
trough and the front will all work to weaken a the cap -- and near
term guidance suggest the first attempt at this will be closer to
this forcing in northern/northeast Illinois and maybe more so into
Wisconsin. The cap will take more time to erode in our south.

Current uncertainty centers on this mid level cloud cover, but IR
satellite indicates some decent warming aloft, and we have low level
moisture increasing from the south and west, so there still appears
to be a window over northeast Illinois for severe storms. We expect
there will be convective attempts this afternoon, but the window may
be fairly narrow. Both the RAP and HRRR suggests the cap erodes but
differ as to the degree of instability at that point, and the HRRR
window of weak capping is quite narrow, and even the RAP which was
more aggressive in its earlier runs has backed away, likely a result
of some latching on to the worked over environment. We may have to
watch for some decaying storms that form in Wisconsin that drift
southeast this evening.

The instability axis gets shifted south of the I-80 corridor pretty
quickly late this afternoon and evening ahead of the remnant
boundary form this morning and any lingering differential heating
boundary. With this in mind, the SPC Slight Risk (Level 2/5) area
has been focused out ahead of these boundaries. This is the area
that stands the best chance of a few scattered severe storms mainly
in the evening hours once the upper forcing makes further
southeastward progress.  Damaging winds would be main hazard with a
2,000+ J/Kg of MLCAPE and some 40-50 kt of deep layer shear, but
there still remains some uncertainty as to the best corridor of
storm development. Drier air will filter in behind the front/trough
later tonight and end of the storm threat.

KMD

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Tuesday through Monday...

Following this evenings cold frontal passage and potential period
of active weather breezy northwesterly winds on Tuesday will
transport a drier and cooler air mass into the area. This cooler
and drier airmass is likely to persist across the area through
later in the week as as upper level troughing (cyclonic upper
flow) sets up over the Great Lakes. This will generally result in
pleasant weather continues each day, with inland highs generally
in the lower 80s and lakeside highs in the 70s. Precipitation
chances through the Friday looks rather low. However, a couple of
minor weather disturbances, along with rather cool mid-level
temperatures will support diurnal cumulus development both
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, and possibly a few light widely
scattered showers. The slightly better chance for these showers
looks to be over far northern IL Tuesday afternoon and over inland
areas of northern IL Wednesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure is expected to settle over the Great Lakes
on Thursday, before shifting to the east late Friday and on
Saturday. While this will support pleasant and dry weather both
days, temperature and humidity values will begin to increase
into the weekend as the low level flow turns southerly following
the eastward departure of the surface high. The weather pattern also
may turn a bit more active and supportive for some clusters of
thunderstorms for at least a portion of weekend. This as an upper
level ridge over the west begins to build eastward into the
Plains and accordingly places our area right within an active belt
of northwesterly mid/upper level flow. Given the inherent
uncertainties with timing and placement at this timescale, we
continue to mention only low end chance POPs in the forecast
through the weekend.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...

The primary aviation weather concerns through the 00Z TAF period are
as follows:

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Chicago metro
through ~01Z

Isolated showers and potentially an additional thunderstorm or two
remain possible in the vicinity of the Chicagoland terminals through
roughly 01Z this evening. There exists a small potential for
additional rainfall moving over the area through as late as 03Z,
though confidence and expected coverage is far too low to include in
the TAF. Following the rain potential, skies should be mostly clear
and gusty westerly winds will begin steadily subsiding. Through the
night, winds should average at around or just over 10 kts. Another
breezy day on Tuesday will feature gusts near 20 kts from the late
morning through mid-evening while winds blow in from the WNW. Winds
will then subside to under 10 kts for the last few hours of the
extended TAF period. VFR conditions can be expected through the
entirety of the period.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 1055 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms north of I-94 into early this
  evening and again Tuesday afternoon-evening, a few of which may be
  severe.

- Still warm but a little less humid on Tuesday.

A fairly nondescript surface pattern will remain in place tonight
through Tuesday night with NW-SE oriented high pressure centered over
the Northern Plains keeping NW flow in place atop MN/WI. Aloft, deep
cyclonic flow from eastern Canada extends into the north-central
CONUS, with one main shortwave trough axis driving southeast this
afternoon-evening over MN/WI with a second shortwave axis expected to
swing through Tuesday afternoon-evening. Peak heating, leading to
best instability within a surface environment of dewpoints into the
low 60s, will aid in allowing scattered showers/thunderstorms to
develop in the vicinity of the shortwave trough. Showers/thunderstorms
to continue mainly north of I-94 through early evening, with a small
potential for a few storms to be strong to severe. MUCAPE will reach
2000 j/kg in that portion of the WFO MPX coverage area and steep
low-level lapse rates (better than 7- 8 deg C/km) will make for
sufficiently colder temps aloft. Coverage will be quite limited, thus
making for a limited severe threat, but still non-zero. Convective
activity this evening will cease with the loss of daytime heating,
but a similar scenario can be expected for Tuesday with another
shortwave trough arriving with no change in the surface synoptic
pattern. So, again, will look for isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of I-94 for Tuesday afternoon. A weak cold front
will slide southeast through the region Tuesday evening, helping
bring an end to any convective threat to the area. Temperatures will
run very similar tomorrow as what is experienced this afternoon.
Highs will again range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows will also
be very similar, running in the upper 50s to mid 60s. However, with
the aforementioned cold front swinging through Tuesday evening, lows
in interior western WI will be a little cooler, down to the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- A few chances for showers and storms with the best chance arriving
Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Hot temperatures arrive over the weekend with low to mid 90s by
the start of next week.

The period begins quietly as weak surface high pressure and
northwesterly flow aloft bring weak subsidence across the region,
with only some fair weather cumulus clouds on Wednesday. Thursday
will see increasing clouds we the weak high pressure moves eastwards
and a developing surface low moves eastwards over the central
Rockies, resulting in low to mid level WAA in addition to an upper
level shortwave by late Thursday. The NBM remains fairly
conservative at 30-40 PoPs Thursday evening into Friday morning, but
expect this to increase as even now there is decent deterministic and
ensemble model agreement on precipitation in the area. The main
question will be how the atmosphere looks as it pertains to
thunderstorms, with forecast soundings from the GFS currently showing
modest 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE alongside 40kts of bulk shear, which
typically would be more than enough to produce a few isolated
stronger storms. The current timing of the shortwave will play a
large role in what happens, as right now it moves into western MN by
03z on Friday and doesn`t reach eastern MN until 06-09z, which would
allow for a bit of cooling and stability which could hamper
thunderstorm development. For now, the expectation is a broken line
of weak showers with a few thunderstorms producing locally heavy
rainfall, but not a significant severe weather threat.

Other than the chance for showers and storms, the big concern will
be increasing temperatures and heat concerns during the last few days
of the period beginning Sunday and lasting through most of next
week. Current NBM temperatures in the low to mid 90s on Sunday and
Monday could still be rather conservative with GEFS and EPS ensemble
members showing potential for mid to upper 90s and even some triple
digit values next week. An upper level ridge and blocking surface
high pressure will not be directly over the area, but centered over
the eastern Rockies which does give us some potential to miss the
worst of the hot temperatures, as well as gives us a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to further cool us down given more
prevalent cloud cover. Climatologically speaking our temperatures
range from mid 60s at night to mid 80s during the day, and with lows
struggling to get below 70 and highs in the 90s, we could be looking
at a stretch of 5+ degrees above normal temperatures for several days
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

A near repeat of Monday is expected for Tuesday, with a diurnal
increase in winds and cloud cover. By the afternoon, those clouds
will likely have built up into isolated-scattered storms. Most CAMs
are like the HRRR in showing that pretty much every MPX terminal will
be susceptible to seeing diurnal showers, but the greatest coverage
is expected over WI, where a PROB30 for TSRA was added to RNH to go
along with the one already in place for EAU.

KMSP...MSP could see shra/tsra in the region between roughly 21z and
2z, but expected coverage is still not expected to be enough to
warrant a mention in the TAF with a prob30, but that`s the one thing
that could happen that is not conveyed in the current TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Fri...Chc A.M. SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. P.M. VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming SW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...TDH
AVIATION...MPG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

 135 PM PDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night with
limited rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and new fire starts
possible. Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, southwest flow
will prevail with near to above normal temperatures. Areas of haze
are possible from fires on the Sierra west slope. A few
thunderstorms may creep back into the Eastern Sierra and far
Western Nevada Friday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through Tuesday Night)...

Hot temperatures will stick around through Tuesday, with highs
100+ possible for the lower valleys of western NV and 5-10 degrees
above average elsewhere. The Heat Risk category for west central
NV is listed as Medium to High on Monday and Tuesday. Sensitive
populations and those spending prolonged periods outside should
exercise caution during this time.

Smoke from the Washburn Fire on the southern edge of Yosemite
National Park is currently contained to the western side of the
Sierra crest thanks to light easterly flow over the region today.
However, a deepening trough off the coast of the Pacific NW will
generate southwesterly flow tonight. This will advect smoke
eastward over the crest and lead to decreased air quality through
Tuesday, most notably over the Tahoe Basin and Carson Valley
according to HRRR smoke guidance.

Some cumulus buildups along and east of the Sierra crest are
possible this afternoon due to intense surface heating, though
thunderstorm chances remain low (less than 5%). Thunderstorm
chances increase Tuesday evening to as a weak shortwave generates
mid-level instability and elevated convection. Highest chances
(10-20%) for thunderstorm development include the eastern Sierra
into western Nevada. Confidence on wet vs. dry storms is currently
low. However, dry thunderstorms are possible under current model
guidance and could produce new fire starts Tuesday afternoon and
evening. See the Fire Weather section below for more detailed
information on fire concerns.

For preparedness tips and additional precautions for heat, smoke,
and thunderstorms, please refer to the Special Weather Statement.

-Whitlam

.LONG TERM (Wednesday onward)...

* Southwest flow is projected over the region through the
  upcoming weekend, with us being located in between a Four
  Corners high and trough off-shore of the Pacific Northwest.

* Typical zephyr west-southwest winds are forecast each
  afternoon- evening, on the order of 20-30 mph. The one day where
  we could see a slight enhancement is Wednesday with NBM showing
  closer to 30 mph in valley areas. With a rather dry airmass,
  this could result in concerns for holdover fires from any
  lightning we get Tuesday.

* Thunderstorm risks are quite low Wednesday-Thursday with dry,
  stable airmass in place. Starting Friday, looks like we get a
  little moisture sneak around the west periphery of the Four
  Corners high such that a few t-storms are possible each
  afternoon into the weekend. Best chances as usual are in the
  Eastern Sierra into Lyon and Mineral Counties. Roughly half of
  the ECMWF ensemble members do show enough moisture for storms to
  sneak up into the Tahoe basin and western Nevada near I-80.
  About 20% show enough moisture for storms as far north as
  Lassen/Susanville. Still way too early to tell what character of
  storms, wet vs dry.

* Temperatures are leaning near to just above normal for the
  period with no remarkable atmospheric features to prompt either
  significant heatwaves or cool-downs. NBM guidance showing solid
  90s for W Nevada each day with 80s for mountain communities.
  Nothing unusual for mid July.

-Chris

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue today as light winds with 10-15 kt
afternoon gusts persist. Easterly winds will keep smoke from the
Washburn Fire in Yosemite west of the Sierra crest through this
afternoon. Given fire activity continues through the day, smoke is
expected to advect back east of the crest as southwest flow
develops over the region. According to current HRRR smoke
guidance, thicker smoke will be present along Sierra crest, while
hazy conditions will impact the Tahoe Basin and Carson Valley.
This haze may reduce slantwise visibility, especially for KTVL-
KMEV-KCXP.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with chances 10-20%
for KRNO-KCXP-KMEV-KMMH, and less than 10% chance for KTRK- KTVL.
Potential impacts include gusty and erratic outflow winds from
any cell that do develop. Afternoon westerly Zephyr winds persist
Tuesday onward, with gusts 20-25 kts likely. Higher gusts up to 30
kts are possible Wednesday. -Whitlam

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Some fire weather concerns exist Tuesday afternoon and evening as
convection looks to ramp up across the region. NAM model soundings
currently exhibit the most significant mid-level instability, with
CAPE values greater than 700 J/kg for locations across the eastern
Sierra and western Nevada. These soundings also show the classic
inverted-V profile, with drier lower levels, a high-based LCL, and
moist upper levels. Thunderstorms under this atmospheric profile
could lead to increased fire concerns as cells would remain mostly
dry, create gusty and erratic outflow winds, and produce lightning
strikes that could ignite new fires.

Another fire weather concern includes the return of afternoon
westerly Zephyr winds on Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 mph
possible. This raises a concern for holdover fires from any
lightning strikes on Tuesday night.

Mixed confidence on storm type and varying fuel moisture content
across affected areas hinders the issuance of any watches or
warnings on this event. -Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 916 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

The 00Z models are starting to come in line showing the
development of elevated showers and storms across east central KS
tonight. And the last several runs of the HRRR have been
consistent in showing this as well. It appears that some moisture
advection along the 700MB front allows for some elevated CAPE
between 1500 and 2000 J/kg per the 00Z RAP forecast soundings
across east central KS. Bulk shear is rather marginal for severe
storms, but forecast soundings still show downdraft CAPE values
close to 1000 J/kg so it is not out of the question there could be
some isolated downbursts with damaging winds. Will update the
forecast to increase POPs to around 50 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Forecast Highlights:

- A few storms may be possible into this evening mainly along a weak
frontal boundary extended across east central into central KS.

- Warming up into the latter part of the week with another ridge
building in from the west.

A typical summer summer weather pattern appears to be in place over
the next several days across the forecast area. The upper flow and
mean Westerlies remains generally north of the area with current
shortwave trough and DCVA translating into the Western Great Lakes
region. Meanwhile, a shortwave ridge is building over the Pacific
Northwest region. Monsoonal moisture is over the Desert Southwest
with a surface high pressure cell building into the central Plains
and Mid MS Valley region. This is helping to push a modified cold
front through the area this afternoon.

This front will be the focus for any potential storms to develop
into this evening as deep enough mixing allows for only a weak cap
to remain in place. Weak forcing and fairly weak convergence and
somewhat limited depth of moisture along the boundary should make it
difficult for storms to develop this evening. Would only expect
isolated to possibly scattered storms if they do form. Wind would be
the main hazard with some small hail as a secondary hazard but with
freezing levels over 16kft the hail threat would be low as storms
likely will have trouble becoming very organized. Shear remains
boundary parallel at around 30-35kts with not all of that through
the depth of any potential storm. However, plenty of instability is
in place with surface based CAPE up to around 4000-4500 J/kg. So, if
an updraft does develop it would be quick to do so but mixed mode
would likely result. Inverted V type profiles would likely allow for
some intense isolated damaging winds to take place near the surface.
All of this is low probability but something to be aware of
generally along a line from Emporia through Ottawa into this
evening. Some lingering post frontal elevated showers could linger
into early tomorrow morning. This would be welcome moisture if it
can be squeezed out of the atmosphere.

After this, a dry pattern with a couple of cooler days with lower
humidity set up before weak return flow develops into
Wednesday/Thursday. A ridge builds in from the west and will help to
warm temperatures once again into the weekend but unfortunately
outside of some possible isentropic induced showers mainly Thursday
morning time frame, precipitation looks to be overall limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Some of the models including the HRRR continue to show elevated
showers and storms developing overnight generally along the 850MB
frontal zone. At this time models keep convection mainly south of
the terminals, so may just include a VCSH for a few hours when the
HRRR shows precip developing. Otherwise a VFR conditions are
expected to persist as mid level clouds give way to sunny skies
for Tuesday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters