Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/09/22


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Forecast Highlights: -Shower and weak storm activity through sunset, funnel clouds possible -Dry and pleasant Saturday -Potential active weather later Sunday/Monday The warm and humid airmass has kept conditions rather uncomfortable into the afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s paired with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As the closed low paired with the shortwave over the Central Plains continues to travel eastward, cyclonic surface flow allowed for pop up showers/isolated lightning to develop across much of the state. There has been a report of a brief funnel cloud in northwestern Iowa but quickly dissipated. Additional funnel clouds will remain possible through sunset with these showers and weak storms, as moderate MLCAPE values paired with higher values of surface vorticity and low LCLs are expected mainly along and north of I-80. Though no major impacts are expected, an SPS has been issued for awareness of funnel cloud potential, which will diminish after peak heating hours. Conditions will dry out across the region through the evening hours with decreasing clouds. Conditions overnight will be mild and quiet as lows fall into the 60s, along with areas of possible patchy fog as humidity values remain high with light winds. Upper level ridging takes over late Friday into the weekend. Saturday looks dry and rather pleasant across the state as high pressure settles in, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity values across Iowa. Highs are expected to change very little, mainly in the low to mid 80s with light east to southeast winds. By Sunday, the ridge will break down as a shortwave trough and surface low pressure system develops over the Northern Plains. As a frontal boundary with this system moves across the region, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with increasing theta-e advection and moisture from increasing southerly low-level flow, though this looks to be concentrated mainly over far northern Iowa into Minnesota where conditions are most favorable. Moderate instability and shear from the RAP model soundings will support thunderstorm development and rather strong storms, some which may be severe. A stronger trough sinking south from Canada into the upper midwest is expected to follow into late Sunday through Monday, bringing a better chance for showers and thunderstorms as moisture advection increases ahead of the eastern moving cold front across in the Upper Midwest. Higher end values of MUCAPE over the region surpassing 2000 J/kg and warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s paired with moderate shear will be favorable for showers and storms to develop across the region. Though exact timing and location of impact is uncertain at this time, strong to severe storms are looking possible Monday. As soundings point to deeper warm cloud depths and PWATs approaching 1.50 inches, heavy rainfall at times may also be a concern, which looks most favorable over northern Iowa as deterministic models suggest. A Marginal risk for heavy rainfall is currently outlined over northern Iowa per WPC guidance. More details are expected in the coming days. A broad ridge building across the western CONUS with prominent northwest flow is expected into Tuesday, bringing quiet conditions across Iowa through the rest of the next work week. Temperatures are expected to cycle between highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s through this extended forecast period. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/ Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Removed the remainder of the thunder mentions this evening with little active convection at the moment, but did leave a few VCSH mentions for the next few hours over the northern sites. MVFR ceilings will prevail into this evening at OTM and other southern Iowa terminals, but shift off to the west toward morning. Focused any fog mention over western Iowa toward 9 or 10z, including FOD, where winds will be lightest until a little after sunrise. Will further evaluate any possible restrictions at 6z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast the remainder of Saturday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury/Fowle AVIATION...Ansorge
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
335 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Interior heat will build this weekend and peak on Monday. Dry weather with seasonably hot temperatures will persist in the interior for the remainder of next week. Stratus and fog will continue to blanket most coastal areas during the nights and mornings through next week. && .DISCUSSION...A compressed marine layer has been locked onto the immediate coast through the day. High resolution model guidance, mainly the ARW, and BUFKiT profiles indicate the shallow marine layer persisting through this evening with perhaps some deepening later tonight and Saturday morning as a decaying 500mb shortwave trough approaches the coast. Some light coastal drizzle seems possible, however based on ARW model, measurable drizzle appears unlikely. Some isolated weak showers will also be possible (10% chance) over the mountains of northeast Trinity late Saturday afternoon, mostly over the Alps. The ARW, NSSL and NAM-nest models lend support for isolated mountain showers, however the HRRR and global spectral models remain dry. Interior heat will build this weekend and peak on Monday. Temperatures probably will not be too hot on Saturday as a 500mb trough transitions over the area and afternoon westerly breezes develop in response to central valley heating. Highs on Saturday should be near normal for early July. Weak upper level troughiness will linger into early Sunday before upper ridging and large scale subsidence builds full force. 850mb temperatures increase to 23-26C, however diurnal winds may cap daytime highs. The warmest day will be on Monday as the ridge aloft pumps up over the area and 850mb temps soar to 25C+. Offshore flow in the morning will suppress marine the layer and confine it right to the coast. Coastal areas may warm into the lower 70`s north of Cape Mendocino, mainly north of Trinidad and along the Del Norte coast where the offshore flow is forecast to be robust. Temperatures of 90F or more are highly probable inland with hotter valleys in Trinity, Lake and Mendocino counties 100F or more. Even northeast Humboldt around Orleans, Hoopa and Willow Creek will likely have 100F+ heat. The heat risk will generally be moderate, however with temperatures peaking around 105-110F in eastern Trinity county on Monday, a heat advisory may be warranted. The interior heat will moderate for the remainder of next week, however it will remain seasonably hot all next week. Marine air and diurnal westerlies should intrude inland each day. Also, ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate southerly winds aloft and some mid level humidity by mid next week. The ECMWF ensemble has 1 member of 50 with precipitation from a disturbance emanating from the subtropics around Thu. The chance for precip or storms remains unlikely (less than 10%). && .AVIATION...The marine layer has clung to the Northern California Coast into the afternoon. Spiraling marine stratus off of Cape Blanco, Oregon continues to spin slowly southward past Del Norte County causing an influx of marine stratus into northern Humboldt County and Del Norte County. There also seems to be a general push of marine stratus onshore north of Cape Mendocino and along most of the Mendocino Coast that is slowing the clearing into this afternoon. Because of this push of marine stratus onto the region’s coast, an IFR to LIFR cloud base could remain through most of the afternoon. There could be potential clearing to MVFR late this afternoon/early evening, but by late tonight IFR to LIFR ceilings will infiltrate along the coast and inland down river valleys. Lower visibilities and fog are also possible along the coast early tomorrow morning. Interior areas of the region will remain in VFR. Interior Southern Mendocino County and Lake County will see gusty NW winds later this afternoon and into tonight, but overnight winds will be calm and variable. && .MARINE...A stalled low pressure system will continue to fizzle out into tonight allowing the Pacific High to regain control of the coastal waters. A small area of advisory level northerly winds will develop through the afternoon in the lee of Cape Mendocino; however, winds throughout the coastal waters will ramp up through the night. Winds will continue to strengthen to advisory level in the outer coastal waters and the southern inner waters by Saturday evening and night. From Sunday afternoon through night, near gale to gale sustained winds and gale gusts will be probable around Point St. George; however, the coverage isn’t large enough to have a gale warning for the northern inner waters. Steep seas will develop throughout the coastal waters Sunday afternoon due to the strengthening northerly winds and continue into next week. A small westerly swell continues to diminish and ends by Sunday morning. A couple of westerly swells are expected to move through the coastal waters by the middle to end of next week. .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455-470. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 With light southeasterly winds and elevated dewpoints towards early Saturday morning...went ahead included the mention of some fog in the forecast with visibilities less than 1 mile. While widespread dense fog may eventually be a concern...with low level stratus also anticipated to develop...may only see the densest fog (as indicated by latest HRRR run) along the leading edge of the stratus and for a brief period of time. As a result...just added the lower visibilities to the forecast for the time being and will also update the HWO to include the mention of reduced visibilities towards daybreak. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The main focus of the near-term forecast is the potential for triple digit heat over the weekend and a chance for thunderstorms. Visible satellite shows cumulus moving from the northeast, over the eastern/northeastern part of the CWA this afternoon. Overall confidence in shower/thunderstorm activity for this afternoon/evening is pretty low at this time, although there is a chance of a few isolated t-storms further west toward the High Plains. This morning, models were keying in on the potential for some fog for late tonight/early tomorrow morning. With weak upslope winds, cooling temps after dark, mostly clear skies and light winds, this would be an okay set up for fog development. Latest model runs of the HRRR and RAP have backed off on this solution. Patchy fog may be possible, but confidence is decreasing. An upper trough builds over the Dakotas this weekend with highs in the 80s and 90s on Saturday, and 90s-100s on Sunday. The western half of the area will have the best chance of reaching triple digits in the afternoon with heat index values in the 100-105 degree range. Additionally, minimum elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western portions of Dawson, Gosper, Furnas, Phillips and Rooks counties for a few hours in the afternoon. Minimum RH values in the 20-25 percent range will be possible. Wind gusts will be around 14-19kts. A cold front is expected to move into the area late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Unfortunately, this will provide little relief from the heat on Sunday. Models are showing potential for a few thunderstorms developing along the front to our north and west during the afternoon, pushing into our area in the evening. There will be a little bit of instability to work with which could help get a couple stronger storms going, but thinking the best chance for strong/severe storms is to our north. The cold front continues to progress through the region Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the northern half of the area, where the front passes through earlier in the day. The southern half of the area will be primarily in the 90s. A few isolated storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening. An upper ridge builds across the Western CONUS on Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures (80s/90s) in the forecast area. Through the rest of the week, the ridge will move over the Central High Plains with high pressure setting up over the Desert Southwest. Expect a dry forecast with a gradual warming trend back into the 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday) Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Generally light east to northeasterly flow will continue through the evening hours...eventually shifting slightly more southeasterly towards daybreak...at generally less than 10 KTS. This light flow combined with mainly clear skies to start the night...will allow temperatures to fall to new dew point values by around midnight...which combined with somewhat favorable upslope flow developing towards daybreak...could result in some patchy fog development. SREF probs remain around 50 percent for fog with vsbys less than 3 SM overnight...with the latest runs of the HRRR indicating some patchy dense fog...which should remain east of the terminals. At the same time...some indication of LIFR or near LIFR stratus developing to our east and reaching the terminals early Saturday morning. Introduced a BKN010 to cover this with some MVFR VSBYS in light BR. The good news...however...is any stratus and fog that does impact the terminals should be relatively short lived...with VFR conditions and light southeasterly winds expect by late morning to early afternoon Saturday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Can only find the odd cloud across eastern Utah and western Colorado this afternoon with some CU buildup over the higher terrain heading towards the Continental Divide. Hardly any vertical growth/buildup noted on local webcams due to subsidence from the area of high pressure moving in. One thing that has been noted is the increase in temperatures. So far, they`re running about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and with plenty of heating left in the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few more degrees added to that total. Clear skies will be the rule overnight and with drier air in place, lows will drop to more normal values versus when the monsoonal moisture was in place. Tomorrow, more of the same as high pressure continues to influence the weather. An upper level trough will be approaching from the west and will eventually ride up and over the ridge and will cause an uptick in moisture but more on that below. Of note, the WRF and NBM are highlighting some very isolated PoPs over the San Juans tomorrow afternoon while the HRRR and NAMNEST are highlighting only some cloud buildup versus actual precip. There is a chance, albeit very slim, for that area so kept a mention of those slight chances in the forecast. Elsewhere, expect similar conditions to today as temperatures soar upwards. Highs will run about 10 degrees above normal so expect triple digit highs for SE UT up into the Moab area into the Grand Valley. Remember to bring that water if enjoying the outdoors. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 24 hours ago models were indicating some dry air moving in and sticking around until Wednesday when the next push of monsoonal moisture was expected to begin. Runs from last night and again today are now showing a fairly big change. The high pressure will still be over much of Colorado and New Mexico but an approaching upper level trough will force the center of high pressure a little further east. This nudge looks to be just enough to allow monsoonal moisture to start streaming back into the area. Both the EC and GFS deterministic models are in fairly solid agreement with this outcome while cluster guidance from both models is also showing good agreement. Forecast PWATs for the southern valleys look to reach near 0.7 inches by noon Sunday and just under an inch by Sunday evening. Some minor discrepancies do show up between models on how much PWATs increase but they do both agree that these amounts will be at least 150% of normal. After that, high pressure remains overhead with monsoonal moisture continuing to stream up from the south with the main plume being to our west. As this plume reaches the Four Corners area, it gets deflected with some of the moisture moving into our CWA. This increased moisture looks to increase our chances for afternoon and evening convection through all of next week. Looks like the San Juans and areas south are favored for the heaviest precip but being this far out, and confidence still low, look for some forecast changes...some possibly significant...over the weekend. Still, a good sign that another round of precip looks possible. As far as temperatures are concerned, we`ll start out well above normal Sunday and then fluctuate each day with precip and cloud cover playing in important role in how warm we get. Lots of sun, expect temps to be pretty hot, clouds/rain around...near normal if not below. Lots of moving parts so keep an eye on the latest forecasts to see what next week will bring. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mountain sites will pick up diurnal winds in the afternoon and low valleys will see some gusty southwest winds as well. Mostly clear skies under high pressure will dominate the period as well. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...LTB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
934 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Storms have come to an end across the Tri-State area for this evening. With no additional rainfall in Cheyenne county [CO], have elected to cancel the Aerial Flood Watch early as any flooding threat would be very localized to poorly drained areas from the rain the past few days. Have also updated the forecast to include patchy fog, mainly northeast of a line from McCook to Hill City. Cloud cover is currently over the area and expected to help keep temperatures up. However, the skies are forecasted to clear as the night goes on. If skies clear early enough and winds remain light enough, dewpoint depressions may be 3 or less across the eastern half of the area. With this, patchy fog could develop just before sunrise. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Upper level ridge continues to build northward across the Plains as shortwave trough is beginning to form across Colorado. This will be the main focus for storms late this afternoon and evening. Visible imagery is showing diurnal CU developing across Cheyenne and Rawlins counties in Kansas. A differential heating boundary was evident this morning over Goodland from this mornings dense fog over Colby so this may be the residual effects of this. RAP and CONSHORT have been hinting at some convection in roughly this same area through the morning. Organized severe weather is not expected with this occurring, but due to high levels on DCAPE currently exceeding 1300 j/kg and high PWAT values exceeding 1.25" any storm that does manage to form will have the potential for localized flooding rains and downburst winds of 60-70+ mph. The above mentioned shortwave over Colorado will move towards the CWA during the late afternoon and evening hours bringing the potential for more showers/storms across east Colorado. Downburst winds, small hail and heavy rains will be the main threats with the best time for storms appearing to be between 6p-12am MT. The Flood Watch for Cheyenne County Colorado continues as reports of county roads across the area having water running over continues, plus the potential for another round of very heavy rain as portions of the county has had 2-4 inches of rain over the past few days. The Flood Watch runs through 11pm MT. Along and east of Highway 83 may see some low stratus or localized fog develop similar to this morning as a moist air mass remains. RAP soundings indicate saturating low levels with LCL`s falling below 1000 feet as winds begin to favor more upslope flow. The focus then turns to the heat for this weekend. The ridge continues to build northward tomorrow as daytime highs are currently forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s. The HREF, CONSHORT and RAP all show the potential for some general pop-up storms along and east of Highway 25 during the afternoon tomorrow. My overall confidence in this is very low as the entire area will be in subsidence from the ridge, so opted to throw in low pops below 10% for that area to address the potential. Overnight temperatures will be warm across the area with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. The potential does exist for record to near record warmest low temperatures to be set. Please see the Climate Section for more information. Sunday, has the potential to be the hottest days of the year as the entire area will likely see temperatures in excess of 100. A few record highs may be in jeopardy as well for the day. Winds will be breezy out of the SW at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph. Some elevated to perhaps localized near critical fire weather may occur along and west of Highway 27. The recent heavy rains will help to mitigate the overall potential somewhat but with the hot and breezy conditions that day it won`t take long for some areas to rapidly dry out. A "cold" front is expected to move through the area during the evening hours on Sunday bringing a slight chance of showers and storms. The front will also allow the wind to shift to the NW and become breezy for a brief period of time as guidance suggests an area of pressure rises. Guidance still has considerable differences with the timing of the front ranging from the ECMWF which has the passage during Sunday afternoon, to the evening/overnight passage of the GFS and the NAM which doesnt have it passing until mid morning Monday. I opted to go with the NBM which suggests the GFS timing of the evening. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 In the upper-levels, we will start the workweek off with a zonal flow due to high pressure to our south and a low pressure system move east across the U.S. Canada border. Near the surface, although models are in a bit of disagreement as to the timing, a mild cold front will begin traversing the Tri-State area sometime between Sunday evening and Monday morning. This will give us a much needed relief from the very hot temperatures from the weekend. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening hours Monday, primarily west of Highway 25. Tuesday is shaping up to be a relatively pleasant day! High temperatures are expected to stay in the 80s and low 90s, which is slightly below normal for this time of year. Tuesday evening will present another chance of precipitation, but confidence is not as high with these showers. Back up in the upper-levels, a high pressure system will begin forming over the four corners region. This high pressure system looks to stay stationary until Friday. Although it will not be moving, it will project a ridge to the north, reaching the U.S. Canada border. This ridge will help push the low pressure system over to the Great Lakes region causing our upper-level flow to become northwesterly. Unfortunately, the cool temperatures will not last as southerly winds will return Wednesday causing a warming trend over the later half of the week. Late Wednesday and Thursday night, the LLJ will be flowing from the south at about 30 to 40 kts. This will draw in a lot of warmer air into the CWA which will keep low temperatures east of Highway 25 in the 70s. High temperatures for Thursday will be in the upper 90s and low 100s. Friday is already looking to break 100 degrees for nearly all of the Tri-State area. Thursday and Friday could also present a fire weather risk as minimum RH values look to be in the teens and low twenties while southerly winds could gust to over 20 kts. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 446 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only concern is that there is a ~15% chance for a thunderstorm during the first couple of hours of the period. Storms are currently developing in Eastern Colorado, the question is how long will they last and will any make it to the terminal. Based on current guidance and decreasing dewpoints, decided not to include at this time. Will amend if needed. KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only concern is some patchy fog may develop around or just before 12Z when winds are expected to be relatively calm. Will need to see if any outflow moves through the area. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Here are the record warmest lows temperatures for Sunday, July 10th: Goodland KS........71F in 1954 Hill City KS.......78F in 1966 Burlington CO......69F in 1967+ McCook NE..........76F in 1951 (+) denotes a multiple year record Here are the record high temperatures for Sunday, July 10th: Goodland KS........107F in 1954 Hill City KS.......110F in 1935 Burlington CO......107F in 1954 McCook NE..........109F in 1954 Yuma Co............104F in 1994+ Colby KS...........108F in 1938 Tribune KS.........105F in 1954 (+) denotes a multiple year record && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAK SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...KAK CLIMATE...JN/Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 The primary cold front was working its way through central Missouri this afternoon. This front will make its way southeast into southeast Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of the front, isolated showers and thunderstorms have formed along outflow boundaries left over from this morning`s storms. Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid level anticyclone over Missouri this afternoon. This mid level high has probably suppressed convection so far today. The most recent run of the hrrr is several hours slower with convective development than the 12z run. There is also less coverage of storms overall in the hrrr. Based on all of this, pops will be held down in the chance category for most areas. The Pennyrile area of west Kentucky and southwest Indiana are still pegged by the nbm and href for the highest qpf and pops. Will maintain likely pops there, with locally around an inch of qpf. Deep-layer unidirectional winds from 20 to 30 kt will favor some linear structures if organized convection develops. The lack of convection so far has allowed heat indices to climb above 100 in most places. The Excessive Heat Warning will be allowed to continue as long as this remains the case. The cold front is forecast to become diffuse before it exits western Kentucky early Saturday morning. Low level winds will become nearly calm. Conditions will be favorable for stratus clouds as the low levels remain very moist, especially where heavy rain occurs. The push of cooler and drier air will be very slow to develop on Saturday. It appears widespread low clouds will persist for a good part of the day. Dew points will likely remain above 70, but the effects of widespread clouds and north winds will make it feel noticeably cooler. Highs will be in the 80s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist behind the front, caused by a sharp 850 mb trough lagging across the lower Ohio Valley. Clearing skies are forecast Saturday night, followed by a sunny and less humid Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the lower 60s. A light northeast breeze will circulate the drier air around a surface high over the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow across the region will push dew points into the middle to upper 60s Monday and Monday night, and into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be mostly in the 90 to 95 degree range, though portions of southeast Missouri could reach the upper 90s Tuesday. As for the cold front, models bring the front slowly through the PAH forecast area through the day Tuesday, then hang it up just south of our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest individual models overall produce very little in the way of precipitation, widely scattered at best, and the NBM mainly produces measurable rain across our southeast counties Tuesday night and Wednesday post frontal. Though could see some small PoPs being reintroduced to our north and west counties, for now we will just go with slight to low chances PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly portions of west Kentucky. More importantly, temperatures behind the cold front will drop back to near seasonable readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with overnight lows a bit below normal in the middle to upper 60s. Northerly winds will bring dew points down into more pleasant readings in the lower to middle 60s. | && .AVIATION... Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022 A cluster of thunderstorms will propagate south and east across the region this evening into the early overnight. The most robust activity will likely move through by 04-05z, but may see -TSRA linger into the overnight especially in the EVV Tri State region. There likely will be periods of IFR conditions and gusty winds associated with the stronger convection. VCSH will continue to be possible overnight into the day on Saturday, although chances at any one terminal is low. As winds become light amidst very moist low level air in place, a low stratus deck is likely to develop overnight into the morning. Guidance suggests at least lower MVFR cigs, but potentially IFR for some terminals. This stratus deck appears to be slow to lift and scatter out on Saturday, taking much of the day to do so. NNE winds behind the front will increase to 8-12 kts by afternoon, and could see a few gusts of 15-18 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080- 081-084>094. MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076- 086-087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>015. && $$ UPDATE...SP SHORT TERM...MY LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...SP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
215 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Standard summer conditions are on tap for this weekend with afternoon breezes and some haze from nearby wildfires. Temperatures will increase to above average early next week, with values around 100 degrees for western NV valleys. Monsoonal moisture may arrive mid to late next week, with increasing chances for afternoon thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... No big changes to the forecast for this weekend as a weak trough sweeps across the West coast. Plan on typically warm temperatures with low to mid 90s for western Nevada and 80s in the Sierra along with dry conditions. Afternoon west winds will develop again Saturday with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible, with lesser wind speeds anticipated for Sunday. Other than some areas of haze across the region due to the Electra and Washburn wildfires, it should be a great weekend to be outdoors. Mono county (per HRRR smoke simulations) will likely get the brunt of the smoke from the Washburn wildfire near Yosemite. We did add some pockets of smoke with areas of haze to the forecast for today into tomorrow. Ongoing smoke/haze impacts will be difficult to ascertain and based on fire suppression efforts at the incident. For air quality information be sure to check fire.airnow.gov for the latest. -Edan .LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday... Temperatures will heat up early next week with Monday and Tuesday showing the greatest potential for 100+ degree highs for western NV valleys. Latest blended guidance indicates this potential around 40% for the Reno area, and peaking to near 80% on Tuesday for the US-95 corridor (Lovelock-Fallon-Hawthorne). For Sierra valleys, highs could come close to 90 degrees. There`s still reasonable cooling at night (low-mid 60s for most valleys), so heat risk forecasts currently remain below advisory thresholds. As always, anyone who plans to be outdoors during the afternoon hours should ensure they`re adequately hydrated, and consider taking some breaks in the shade or indoors. Later next week, temperatures edge down a bit but remain near or slightly above average for mid-July (90s for lower valleys and 80s near the Sierra). Along with the heat, we`ll be on the lookout for possible thunderstorms as the week progresses. Monday still appears too dry and capped for any cell development. The potential for Tuesday looks to be more limited to maybe a couple short lived cells with heat and terrain-driven effects. Moisture return looks to be stalled with no apparent sources of mid-upper level forcing. Later next week, the thunder chances edge upward as the ridge center settles over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. A split trough approaching the west coast while weak disturbances rotating around the ridge will pull in more moisture from the south, will provide a bit more mid-upper level forcing. It isn`t looking like a very well-organized thunderstorm pattern, but isolated late day storms appear to be in the mix mainly for Mono- Mineral counties Wednesday, then extending northward to near US-50 near the Sierra and I-80 for western NV Thursday-Friday. We`ll also see zephyr breezes return from Tuesday onward, possibly a bit more enhanced by next Friday. If any buildups form in western NV from US-50 northward, these zephyr breezes could provide enough convergence to generate a few storm cells into the early evening. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the weekend with some light haze possible in the mornings mainly originating from the Washburn fire in the western Sierra foothills of Yosemite NP. Typical afternoon and evening breezes with gusts 20-25 kts continue through Saturday, then winds weaken Sunday-Monday. Next week, temperatures heating up to 100+ degrees could yield some density altitude issues Mon-Tue. Then a risk of isolated t-storms comes for mid-late week as moisture is slowly drawn northward into the Great Basin. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno