Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/09/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Forecast Highlights:
-Shower and weak storm activity through sunset, funnel clouds
possible
-Dry and pleasant Saturday
-Potential active weather later Sunday/Monday
The warm and humid airmass has kept conditions rather uncomfortable
into the afternoon, with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
paired with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. As the closed low
paired with the shortwave over the Central Plains continues to
travel eastward, cyclonic surface flow allowed for pop up
showers/isolated lightning to develop across much of the state.
There has been a report of a brief funnel cloud in northwestern Iowa
but quickly dissipated. Additional funnel clouds will remain
possible through sunset with these showers and weak storms, as
moderate MLCAPE values paired with higher values of surface
vorticity and low LCLs are expected mainly along and north of I-80.
Though no major impacts are expected, an SPS has been issued for
awareness of funnel cloud potential, which will diminish after peak
heating hours. Conditions will dry out across the region through the
evening hours with decreasing clouds. Conditions overnight will be
mild and quiet as lows fall into the 60s, along with areas of
possible patchy fog as humidity values remain high with light winds.
Upper level ridging takes over late Friday into the weekend.
Saturday looks dry and rather pleasant across the state as high
pressure settles in, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity
values across Iowa. Highs are expected to change very little, mainly
in the low to mid 80s with light east to southeast winds. By Sunday,
the ridge will break down as a shortwave trough and surface low
pressure system develops over the Northern Plains. As a frontal
boundary with this system moves across the region, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop with increasing theta-e
advection and moisture from increasing southerly low-level flow,
though this looks to be concentrated mainly over far northern Iowa
into Minnesota where conditions are most favorable. Moderate
instability and shear from the RAP model soundings will support
thunderstorm development and rather strong storms, some which may be
severe.
A stronger trough sinking south from Canada into the upper midwest
is expected to follow into late Sunday through Monday, bringing a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms as moisture advection
increases ahead of the eastern moving cold front across in the Upper
Midwest. Higher end values of MUCAPE over the region surpassing 2000
J/kg and warmer temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s paired with
moderate shear will be favorable for showers and storms to develop
across the region. Though exact timing and location of impact is
uncertain at this time, strong to severe storms are looking possible
Monday. As soundings point to deeper warm cloud depths and PWATs
approaching 1.50 inches, heavy rainfall at times may also be a
concern, which looks most favorable over northern Iowa as
deterministic models suggest. A Marginal risk for heavy rainfall is
currently outlined over northern Iowa per WPC guidance. More details
are expected in the coming days.
A broad ridge building across the western CONUS with prominent
northwest flow is expected into Tuesday, bringing quiet conditions
across Iowa through the rest of the next work week. Temperatures are
expected to cycle between highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s
through this extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Removed the remainder of the thunder mentions this evening with
little active convection at the moment, but did leave a few VCSH
mentions for the next few hours over the northern sites. MVFR
ceilings will prevail into this evening at OTM and other southern
Iowa terminals, but shift off to the west toward morning. Focused
any fog mention over western Iowa toward 9 or 10z, including FOD,
where winds will be lightest until a little after sunrise. Will
further evaluate any possible restrictions at 6z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast the remainder of Saturday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury/Fowle
AVIATION...Ansorge
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
335 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Interior heat will build this weekend and peak on
Monday. Dry weather with seasonably hot temperatures will persist
in the interior for the remainder of next week. Stratus and fog
will continue to blanket most coastal areas during the nights and
mornings through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A compressed marine layer has been locked onto the immediate
coast through the day. High resolution model guidance, mainly the
ARW, and BUFKiT profiles indicate the shallow marine layer persisting
through this evening with perhaps some deepening later tonight
and Saturday morning as a decaying 500mb shortwave trough approaches
the coast. Some light coastal drizzle seems possible, however based
on ARW model, measurable drizzle appears unlikely. Some isolated
weak showers will also be possible (10% chance) over the mountains
of northeast Trinity late Saturday afternoon, mostly over the
Alps. The ARW, NSSL and NAM-nest models lend support for isolated
mountain showers, however the HRRR and global spectral models remain
dry.
Interior heat will build this weekend and peak on Monday. Temperatures
probably will not be too hot on Saturday as a 500mb trough transitions
over the area and afternoon westerly breezes develop in response
to central valley heating. Highs on Saturday should be near normal
for early July. Weak upper level troughiness will linger into early
Sunday before upper ridging and large scale subsidence builds full
force. 850mb temperatures increase to 23-26C, however diurnal winds
may cap daytime highs. The warmest day will be on Monday as the
ridge aloft pumps up over the area and 850mb temps soar to 25C+.
Offshore flow in the morning will suppress marine the layer and
confine it right to the coast. Coastal areas may warm into the
lower 70`s north of Cape Mendocino, mainly north of Trinidad and
along the Del Norte coast where the offshore flow is forecast to
be robust. Temperatures of 90F or more are highly probable inland
with hotter valleys in Trinity, Lake and Mendocino counties 100F
or more. Even northeast Humboldt around Orleans, Hoopa and Willow
Creek will likely have 100F+ heat. The heat risk will generally be
moderate, however with temperatures peaking around 105-110F in
eastern Trinity county on Monday, a heat advisory may be warranted.
The interior heat will moderate for the remainder of next week,
however it will remain seasonably hot all next week. Marine air
and diurnal westerlies should intrude inland each day. Also,
ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate
southerly winds aloft and some mid level humidity by mid next
week. The ECMWF ensemble has 1 member of 50 with precipitation
from a disturbance emanating from the subtropics around Thu. The
chance for precip or storms remains unlikely (less than 10%).
&&
.AVIATION...The marine layer has clung to the Northern California
Coast into the afternoon. Spiraling marine stratus off of Cape
Blanco, Oregon continues to spin slowly southward past Del Norte
County causing an influx of marine stratus into northern Humboldt
County and Del Norte County. There also seems to be a general push
of marine stratus onshore north of Cape Mendocino and along most of
the Mendocino Coast that is slowing the clearing into this
afternoon. Because of this push of marine stratus onto the region’s
coast, an IFR to LIFR cloud base could remain through most of the
afternoon. There could be potential clearing to MVFR late this
afternoon/early evening, but by late tonight IFR to LIFR ceilings
will infiltrate along the coast and inland down river valleys. Lower
visibilities and fog are also possible along the coast early
tomorrow morning. Interior areas of the region will remain in VFR.
Interior Southern Mendocino County and Lake County will see gusty NW
winds later this afternoon and into tonight, but overnight winds
will be calm and variable.
&&
.MARINE...A stalled low pressure system will continue to fizzle out
into tonight allowing the Pacific High to regain control of the
coastal waters. A small area of advisory level northerly winds will
develop through the afternoon in the lee of Cape Mendocino; however,
winds throughout the coastal waters will ramp up through the night.
Winds will continue to strengthen to advisory level in the outer
coastal waters and the southern inner waters by Saturday evening and
night. From Sunday afternoon through night, near gale to gale
sustained winds and gale gusts will be probable around Point St.
George; however, the coverage isn’t large enough to have a gale
warning for the northern inner waters. Steep seas will develop
throughout the coastal waters Sunday afternoon due to the
strengthening northerly winds and continue into next week. A small
westerly swell continues to diminish and ends by Sunday morning. A
couple of westerly swells are expected to move through the coastal
waters by the middle to end of next week.
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday
for PZZ455-470.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday
for PZZ475.
&&
$$
Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka
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https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka
For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
749 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
With light southeasterly winds and elevated dewpoints towards
early Saturday morning...went ahead included the mention of some
fog in the forecast with visibilities less than 1 mile. While
widespread dense fog may eventually be a concern...with low level
stratus also anticipated to develop...may only see the densest fog
(as indicated by latest HRRR run) along the leading edge of the
stratus and for a brief period of time. As a result...just added
the lower visibilities to the forecast for the time being and will
also update the HWO to include the mention of reduced
visibilities towards daybreak.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
The main focus of the near-term forecast is the potential for triple
digit heat over the weekend and a chance for thunderstorms.
Visible satellite shows cumulus moving from the northeast, over the
eastern/northeastern part of the CWA this afternoon. Overall
confidence in shower/thunderstorm activity for this
afternoon/evening is pretty low at this time, although there is a
chance of a few isolated t-storms further west toward the High
Plains. This morning, models were keying in on the potential for
some fog for late tonight/early tomorrow morning. With weak upslope
winds, cooling temps after dark, mostly clear skies and light winds,
this would be an okay set up for fog development. Latest model runs
of the HRRR and RAP have backed off on this solution. Patchy fog
may be possible, but confidence is decreasing.
An upper trough builds over the Dakotas this weekend with highs in
the 80s and 90s on Saturday, and 90s-100s on Sunday. The western
half of the area will have the best chance of reaching triple digits
in the afternoon with heat index values in the 100-105 degree range.
Additionally, minimum elevated fire weather conditions are possible
across the western portions of Dawson, Gosper, Furnas, Phillips and
Rooks counties for a few hours in the afternoon. Minimum RH values
in the 20-25 percent range will be possible. Wind gusts will be
around 14-19kts.
A cold front is expected to move into the area late Sunday afternoon
into the overnight hours. Unfortunately, this will provide little
relief from the heat on Sunday. Models are showing potential for a
few thunderstorms developing along the front to our north and west
during the afternoon, pushing into our area in the evening. There
will be a little bit of instability to work with which could help
get a couple stronger storms going, but thinking the best chance for
strong/severe storms is to our north.
The cold front continues to progress through the region Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s for the northern half of the area,
where the front passes through earlier in the day. The southern
half of the area will be primarily in the 90s. A few isolated
storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening.
An upper ridge builds across the Western CONUS on Tuesday with
slightly cooler temperatures (80s/90s) in the forecast area. Through
the rest of the week, the ridge will move over the Central High
Plains with high pressure setting up over the Desert Southwest.
Expect a dry forecast with a gradual warming trend back into the
90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Generally light east to northeasterly flow will continue through
the evening hours...eventually shifting slightly more
southeasterly towards daybreak...at generally less than 10 KTS.
This light flow combined with mainly clear skies to start the
night...will allow temperatures to fall to new dew point values by
around midnight...which combined with somewhat favorable upslope
flow developing towards daybreak...could result in some patchy
fog development. SREF probs remain around 50 percent for fog with
vsbys less than 3 SM overnight...with the latest runs of the HRRR
indicating some patchy dense fog...which should remain east of
the terminals. At the same time...some indication of LIFR or near
LIFR stratus developing to our east and reaching the terminals
early Saturday morning. Introduced a BKN010 to cover this with
some MVFR VSBYS in light BR. The good news...however...is any
stratus and fog that does impact the terminals should be
relatively short lived...with VFR conditions and light
southeasterly winds expect by late morning to early afternoon
Saturday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rossi
DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Can only find the odd cloud across eastern Utah and western
Colorado this afternoon with some CU buildup over the higher
terrain heading towards the Continental Divide. Hardly any
vertical growth/buildup noted on local webcams due to subsidence
from the area of high pressure moving in. One thing that has been
noted is the increase in temperatures. So far, they`re running
about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday and with plenty of heating
left in the day, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few more degrees
added to that total. Clear skies will be the rule overnight and
with drier air in place, lows will drop to more normal values
versus when the monsoonal moisture was in place.
Tomorrow, more of the same as high pressure continues to influence
the weather. An upper level trough will be approaching from the
west and will eventually ride up and over the ridge and will cause
an uptick in moisture but more on that below. Of note, the WRF and
NBM are highlighting some very isolated PoPs over the San Juans
tomorrow afternoon while the HRRR and NAMNEST are highlighting
only some cloud buildup versus actual precip. There is a chance,
albeit very slim, for that area so kept a mention of those slight
chances in the forecast. Elsewhere, expect similar conditions to
today as temperatures soar upwards. Highs will run about 10
degrees above normal so expect triple digit highs for SE UT up
into the Moab area into the Grand Valley. Remember to bring that
water if enjoying the outdoors.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
24 hours ago models were indicating some dry air moving in and
sticking around until Wednesday when the next push of monsoonal
moisture was expected to begin. Runs from last night and again today
are now showing a fairly big change. The high pressure will still be
over much of Colorado and New Mexico but an approaching upper level
trough will force the center of high pressure a little further east.
This nudge looks to be just enough to allow monsoonal moisture to
start streaming back into the area. Both the EC and GFS
deterministic models are in fairly solid agreement with this outcome
while cluster guidance from both models is also showing good
agreement. Forecast PWATs for the southern valleys look to reach
near 0.7 inches by noon Sunday and just under an inch by Sunday
evening. Some minor discrepancies do show up between models on how
much PWATs increase but they do both agree that these amounts will
be at least 150% of normal. After that, high pressure remains
overhead with monsoonal moisture continuing to stream up from the
south with the main plume being to our west. As this plume reaches
the Four Corners area, it gets deflected with some of the moisture
moving into our CWA. This increased moisture looks to increase
our chances for afternoon and evening convection through all of
next week. Looks like the San Juans and areas south are favored
for the heaviest precip but being this far out, and confidence
still low, look for some forecast changes...some possibly
significant...over the weekend. Still, a good sign that another
round of precip looks possible.
As far as temperatures are concerned, we`ll start out well above
normal Sunday and then fluctuate each day with precip and cloud
cover playing in important role in how warm we get. Lots of sun,
expect temps to be pretty hot, clouds/rain around...near normal if
not below.
Lots of moving parts so keep an eye on the latest forecasts to see
what next week will bring.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mountain
sites will pick up diurnal winds in the afternoon and low valleys
will see some gusty southwest winds as well. Mostly clear skies
under high pressure will dominate the period as well.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...LTB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
934 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Storms have come to an end across the Tri-State area for this
evening. With no additional rainfall in Cheyenne county [CO], have
elected to cancel the Aerial Flood Watch early as any flooding
threat would be very localized to poorly drained areas from the
rain the past few days.
Have also updated the forecast to include patchy fog, mainly
northeast of a line from McCook to Hill City. Cloud cover is
currently over the area and expected to help keep temperatures
up. However, the skies are forecasted to clear as the night goes
on. If skies clear early enough and winds remain light enough,
dewpoint depressions may be 3 or less across the eastern half of
the area. With this, patchy fog could develop just before sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Upper level ridge continues to build northward across the Plains as
shortwave trough is beginning to form across Colorado. This will
be the main focus for storms late this afternoon and evening.
Visible imagery is showing diurnal CU developing across Cheyenne
and Rawlins counties in Kansas. A differential heating boundary
was evident this morning over Goodland from this mornings dense
fog over Colby so this may be the residual effects of this. RAP
and CONSHORT have been hinting at some convection in roughly this
same area through the morning. Organized severe weather is not
expected with this occurring, but due to high levels on DCAPE
currently exceeding 1300 j/kg and high PWAT values exceeding 1.25"
any storm that does manage to form will have the potential for
localized flooding rains and downburst winds of 60-70+ mph. The
above mentioned shortwave over Colorado will move towards the CWA
during the late afternoon and evening hours bringing the potential
for more showers/storms across east Colorado. Downburst winds,
small hail and heavy rains will be the main threats with the best
time for storms appearing to be between 6p-12am MT. The Flood
Watch for Cheyenne County Colorado continues as reports of county
roads across the area having water running over continues, plus
the potential for another round of very heavy rain as portions of
the county has had 2-4 inches of rain over the past few days. The
Flood Watch runs through 11pm MT. Along and east of Highway 83
may see some low stratus or localized fog develop similar to this
morning as a moist air mass remains. RAP soundings indicate
saturating low levels with LCL`s falling below 1000 feet as winds
begin to favor more upslope flow.
The focus then turns to the heat for this weekend. The ridge
continues to build northward tomorrow as daytime highs are currently
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s. The HREF, CONSHORT and RAP
all show the potential for some general pop-up storms along and
east of Highway 25 during the afternoon tomorrow. My overall
confidence in this is very low as the entire area will be in
subsidence from the ridge, so opted to throw in low pops below 10%
for that area to address the potential. Overnight temperatures
will be warm across the area with widespread upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area. The potential does exist for record to near
record warmest low temperatures to be set. Please see the Climate
Section for more information.
Sunday, has the potential to be the hottest days of the year as the
entire area will likely see temperatures in excess of 100. A few
record highs may be in jeopardy as well for the day. Winds will be
breezy out of the SW at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 25
mph. Some elevated to perhaps localized near critical fire weather
may occur along and west of Highway 27. The recent heavy rains
will help to mitigate the overall potential somewhat but with the
hot and breezy conditions that day it won`t take long for some
areas to rapidly dry out. A "cold" front is expected to move
through the area during the evening hours on Sunday bringing a
slight chance of showers and storms. The front will also allow the
wind to shift to the NW and become breezy for a brief period of
time as guidance suggests an area of pressure rises. Guidance
still has considerable differences with the timing of the front
ranging from the ECMWF which has the passage during Sunday
afternoon, to the evening/overnight passage of the GFS and the NAM
which doesnt have it passing until mid morning Monday. I opted to
go with the NBM which suggests the GFS timing of the evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 223 PM MDT
Fri Jul 8 2022
In the upper-levels, we will start the workweek off with a zonal
flow due to high pressure to our south and a low pressure system
move east across the U.S. Canada border. Near the surface, although
models are in a bit of disagreement as to the timing, a mild cold
front will begin traversing the Tri-State area sometime between
Sunday evening and Monday morning. This will give us a much needed
relief from the very hot temperatures from the weekend. There will
also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening hours
Monday, primarily west of Highway 25.
Tuesday is shaping up to be a relatively pleasant day! High
temperatures are expected to stay in the 80s and low 90s, which is
slightly below normal for this time of year. Tuesday evening will
present another chance of precipitation, but confidence is not as
high with these showers. Back up in the upper-levels, a high
pressure system will begin forming over the four corners region.
This high pressure system looks to stay stationary until Friday.
Although it will not be moving, it will project a ridge to the
north, reaching the U.S. Canada border. This ridge will help push
the low pressure system over to the Great Lakes region causing our
upper-level flow to become northwesterly.
Unfortunately, the cool temperatures will not last as southerly
winds will return Wednesday causing a warming trend over the later
half of the week. Late Wednesday and Thursday night, the LLJ will be
flowing from the south at about 30 to 40 kts. This will draw in a
lot of warmer air into the CWA which will keep low temperatures east
of Highway 25 in the 70s. High temperatures for Thursday will be in
the upper 90s and low 100s. Friday is already looking to break 100
degrees for nearly all of the Tri-State area. Thursday and Friday
could also present a fire weather risk as minimum RH values look to
be in the teens and low twenties while southerly winds could gust to
over 20 kts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 446 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
KGLD... VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only
concern is that there is a ~15% chance for a thunderstorm during
the first couple of hours of the period. Storms are currently
developing in Eastern Colorado, the question is how long will they
last and will any make it to the terminal. Based on current
guidance and decreasing dewpoints, decided not to include at this
time. Will amend if needed.
KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. The only
concern is some patchy fog may develop around or just before 12Z
when winds are expected to be relatively calm. Will need to see if
any outflow moves through the area.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Here are the record warmest lows temperatures for Sunday, July 10th:
Goodland KS........71F in 1954
Hill City KS.......78F in 1966
Burlington CO......69F in 1967+
McCook NE..........76F in 1951
(+) denotes a multiple year record
Here are the record high temperatures for Sunday, July 10th:
Goodland KS........107F in 1954
Hill City KS.......110F in 1935
Burlington CO......107F in 1954
McCook NE..........109F in 1954
Yuma Co............104F in 1994+
Colby KS...........108F in 1938
Tribune KS.........105F in 1954
(+) denotes a multiple year record
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAK
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...JN/Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
635 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
The primary cold front was working its way through central
Missouri this afternoon. This front will make its way southeast
into southeast Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
Ahead of the front, isolated showers and thunderstorms have
formed along outflow boundaries left over from this morning`s
storms.
Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid level anticyclone over
Missouri this afternoon. This mid level high has probably
suppressed convection so far today. The most recent run of the
hrrr is several hours slower with convective development than the
12z run. There is also less coverage of storms overall in the
hrrr. Based on all of this, pops will be held down in the chance
category for most areas. The Pennyrile area of west Kentucky and
southwest Indiana are still pegged by the nbm and href for the
highest qpf and pops. Will maintain likely pops there, with
locally around an inch of qpf. Deep-layer unidirectional winds
from 20 to 30 kt will favor some linear structures if organized
convection develops.
The lack of convection so far has allowed heat indices to climb
above 100 in most places. The Excessive Heat Warning will be
allowed to continue as long as this remains the case.
The cold front is forecast to become diffuse before it exits
western Kentucky early Saturday morning. Low level winds will
become nearly calm. Conditions will be favorable for stratus
clouds as the low levels remain very moist, especially where
heavy rain occurs.
The push of cooler and drier air will be very slow to develop on
Saturday. It appears widespread low clouds will persist for a
good part of the day. Dew points will likely remain above 70, but
the effects of widespread clouds and north winds will make it feel
noticeably cooler. Highs will be in the 80s. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will persist behind the front, caused by a
sharp 850 mb trough lagging across the lower Ohio Valley.
Clearing skies are forecast Saturday night, followed by a sunny
and less humid Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
dew points in the lower 60s. A light northeast breeze will
circulate the drier air around a surface high over the Great
Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise Monday into Tuesday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow across the
region will push dew points into the middle to upper 60s Monday and
Monday night, and into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be mostly in the 90 to 95
degree range, though portions of southeast Missouri could reach the
upper 90s Tuesday.
As for the cold front, models bring the front slowly through the PAH
forecast area through the day Tuesday, then hang it up just south of
our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Latest individual models
overall produce very little in the way of precipitation, widely
scattered at best, and the NBM mainly produces measurable rain
across our southeast counties Tuesday night and Wednesday post
frontal. Though could see some small PoPs being reintroduced to our
north and west counties, for now we will just go with slight to low
chances PoPs for showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly
portions of west Kentucky.
More importantly, temperatures behind the cold front will drop back
to near seasonable readings in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
with overnight lows a bit below normal in the middle to upper 60s.
Northerly winds will bring dew points down into more pleasant
readings in the lower to middle 60s. |
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
A cluster of thunderstorms will propagate south and east across
the region this evening into the early overnight. The most robust
activity will likely move through by 04-05z, but may see -TSRA
linger into the overnight especially in the EVV Tri State region.
There likely will be periods of IFR conditions and gusty winds
associated with the stronger convection. VCSH will continue to be
possible overnight into the day on Saturday, although chances at
any one terminal is low.
As winds become light amidst very moist low level air in place, a
low stratus deck is likely to develop overnight into the morning.
Guidance suggests at least lower MVFR cigs, but potentially IFR
for some terminals. This stratus deck appears to be slow to lift
and scatter out on Saturday, taking much of the day to do so. NNE
winds behind the front will increase to 8-12 kts by afternoon, and
could see a few gusts of 15-18 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ080-
081-084>094.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
KYZ001>015.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
215 PM PDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Standard summer conditions are on tap for this weekend with
afternoon breezes and some haze from nearby wildfires.
Temperatures will increase to above average early next week, with
values around 100 degrees for western NV valleys. Monsoonal
moisture may arrive mid to late next week, with increasing chances
for afternoon thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
No big changes to the forecast for this weekend as a weak trough
sweeps across the West coast. Plan on typically warm temperatures
with low to mid 90s for western Nevada and 80s in the Sierra along
with dry conditions. Afternoon west winds will develop again
Saturday with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible, with lesser wind
speeds anticipated for Sunday. Other than some areas of haze
across the region due to the Electra and Washburn wildfires, it
should be a great weekend to be outdoors.
Mono county (per HRRR smoke simulations) will likely get the brunt
of the smoke from the Washburn wildfire near Yosemite. We did add
some pockets of smoke with areas of haze to the forecast for today
into tomorrow. Ongoing smoke/haze impacts will be difficult to
ascertain and based on fire suppression efforts at the incident.
For air quality information be sure to check fire.airnow.gov for
the latest.
-Edan
.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday...
Temperatures will heat up early next week with Monday and Tuesday
showing the greatest potential for 100+ degree highs for western
NV valleys. Latest blended guidance indicates this potential
around 40% for the Reno area, and peaking to near 80% on Tuesday
for the US-95 corridor (Lovelock-Fallon-Hawthorne). For Sierra
valleys, highs could come close to 90 degrees. There`s still
reasonable cooling at night (low-mid 60s for most valleys), so
heat risk forecasts currently remain below advisory thresholds.
As always, anyone who plans to be outdoors during the afternoon
hours should ensure they`re adequately hydrated, and consider
taking some breaks in the shade or indoors. Later next week,
temperatures edge down a bit but remain near or slightly above
average for mid-July (90s for lower valleys and 80s near the
Sierra).
Along with the heat, we`ll be on the lookout for possible
thunderstorms as the week progresses. Monday still appears too dry
and capped for any cell development. The potential for Tuesday
looks to be more limited to maybe a couple short lived cells with
heat and terrain-driven effects. Moisture return looks to be
stalled with no apparent sources of mid-upper level forcing.
Later next week, the thunder chances edge upward as the ridge
center settles over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies. A
split trough approaching the west coast while weak disturbances
rotating around the ridge will pull in more moisture from the
south, will provide a bit more mid-upper level forcing. It isn`t
looking like a very well-organized thunderstorm pattern, but
isolated late day storms appear to be in the mix mainly for Mono-
Mineral counties Wednesday, then extending northward to near US-50
near the Sierra and I-80 for western NV Thursday-Friday. We`ll
also see zephyr breezes return from Tuesday onward, possibly a bit
more enhanced by next Friday. If any buildups form in western NV
from US-50 northward, these zephyr breezes could provide enough
convergence to generate a few storm cells into the early evening.
MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the weekend with some light
haze possible in the mornings mainly originating from the
Washburn fire in the western Sierra foothills of Yosemite NP.
Typical afternoon and evening breezes with gusts 20-25 kts
continue through Saturday, then winds weaken Sunday-Monday. Next
week, temperatures heating up to 100+ degrees could yield some
density altitude issues Mon-Tue. Then a risk of isolated t-storms
comes for mid-late week as moisture is slowly drawn northward
into the Great Basin. MJD
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno