Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/08/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Mainly dry, tranquil, and pleasant weather conditions will
prevail into early next week thanks to high pressure overhead. A
stray shower is possible tonight and Friday in response to an
advancing cold front. The next best chance for more widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be in the Tuesday to
Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures through the middle of next
week will run near seasonable levels.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 952 PM, a quiet evening across the area continues. Radar
not showing any echoes at this time, but HRRR continues to
suggest some light showers will develop over southern half of
area overnight in response to convergence along a dewpoint
boundary. Adjusted low temps down in southern Adirondacks where
temps have already fallen to earlier forecast mins. Winds are
generally light except in and along mid Hudson Valley where
southerly winds are still 10-15 mph. Temps ranging from the low
to mid 50s in the southern Adirondacks to the low 70s along the
Quiet weather will continue across the forecast area through
tonight. Sct fair weather Cu underneath a capping inversion
around 700 mb will diminish around sunset with the loss of solar
heating. Good radiational cooling will develop overnight with
clear skies and light winds, and this will lead to the
development of patchy fog toward daybreak, mainly in normally
fog prone, cooler outlying areas. Overnight lows will be in the
50s over normally cooler locations north of the Capital District
and over higher terrain, with lowers 60s in the Hudson Valley.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A corridor of moisture and thunderstorms will be well
established from the Ohio Valley eastward off the mid-Atlantic
coast Friday through Saturday along a frontal zone, while mainly
dry weather continues to the north including our area. There
may be an isolated shower across a small fraction of the area
during the day Friday as a weak, ill- defined cold front
advances south from southern Canada in mid- level northwest
flow. However the atmosphere will be quite dry through Friday
and any showers will be few and far between. A reinforcing shot
of dry air will overspread the area from the north Friday night
and Saturday as high pressure builds southeast from Quebec.
This high pressure area will settle across the northeast CONUS
on Sunday bringing continued dry weather through the rest of the
Good radiational cooling conditions will result in temperatures
running below normal during the night in this pattern, and
probably at least a little below guidance blends, especially
Saturday night. Lows Friday night will range from the lower 60s
over urbanized areas in the Hudson to 50s elsewhere. Lows
Saturday night could be as low as the lower 40s over the
Adirondacks, with mid 50s to lower 60s in the Hudson Valley.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s, then a
few degrees lower Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 70s
to near 80.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain in control Sunday night
through Monday bringing continued dry weather across the
region. As the center of the high departs to the east, a light
southerly flow may develop, especially along the Hudson Valley,
which will act to keep temperatures a bit more elevated than
Saturday night. Lows should generally be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Sunshine on Monday along with a southerly breeze and
850 hPa temperatures increasing to +15- 17 C should lead to
daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations to the 80s in the valleys. It is not out of the
question a few valley locations approach 90.
Surface low and associated cold front will begin to approach from
the region late Monday night into Tuesday with our next chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
dependent on if some areas could reach peak heating before
clouds and showers arrive. We will run with NBM guidance at this
time which has temperatures on the higher side of guidance.
This equates to mid-70s to lower 80s across the higher
elevations to the mid-80s to lower 90s in the valleys.
Uncertainty in the guidance exists Wednesday into Thursday
whether or not this system will stall over our area or shift
far enough to the east that drier air and high pressure can
arrive. For now, we will run with the NBM which indicates at
least slight chance to chances for continued showers and
thunderstorms on these days. High temperatures should remain in
the 70s and 80s.
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail through
much of this time. At POU and PSF, increasing low-level moisture
will likely lead to development of MVFR ceilings due to stratus
overnight, most likely between 7-11z. There is a possibility of
IFR ceilings at PSF, and confidence was high enough to include
a temp there for a few hours late tonight. IFR ceilings are
possible at POU as well late tonight until shortly after sunrise
tomorrow, but confidence is not high enough to add to the TAF.
Low-level moisture looks to remain south of ALB, so expecting
VFR conditions here through the entire TAF period. Low clouds
also remain south of GFL, but this may allow for fog/mist to
develop here overnight until shortly after sunrise. Fog/mist
could reduce ceilings and especially vsibilities to IFR or
Tomorrow morning, any fog quickly mixes out at GFL after 11-12z with
a return to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.
VFR conditions also prevail at ALB tomorrow. At POU and PSF, it
may take until mid-morning for low stratus to mix out, but by
14-16z these sites too should see improvement back to VFR
conditions through the end of the TAF period. An isolated shower
cannot be ruled out at POU or PSF towards the end of the TAF
period tomorrow, but will probably hold off until after
After sunset, winds decrease to less than 5 kt from the
southeast, which continues until mid-morning tomorrow. At that
point, winds pick up to 5-10 kt from the northwest with some
gusts to 20 kt.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Mainly dry, tranquil, and pleasant weather conditions
will prevail through the remainder of the work week, the weekend
into early next week thanks to high pressure overhead. A stray
shower is possible on Friday in response to an advancing cold front.
The next best chance for more widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe.
Temperatures through the middle of next week will run near
Maximum RH values tonight will rise to between 85 and 100
percent toward morning. On Friday, minimum RH values will range
between 40-65%. Friday night, maximum RH values will range
between 75-100%. For Saturday, minimum RH values will range
between 30-45%. Saturday night, maximum RH values will range
between 60-100% with the lowest values located south of I-90 and
the highest values located north of I-90.
Tonight, winds are expected to become light and variable at 5
kts or less. On Friday, winds are expected to develop out of the
northwest at speeds between 3-8 kts. Friday night, winds are
expected to shift out of the north at less than 5 kts. On
Saturday, winds will pick up in magnitude out of the north at
5-10 kts. Saturday night, winds are expected to trend towards
No hydrology concerns for the Albany HSA are expected through at
least the early parts of next week as dry weather is expected to
persist through Monday of next week. Some much needed rainfall in
the way of showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching
storm system and upper trough from the Great Lakes Region will come
in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Due to the lack of rainfall in
recent days and the progressive nature of the pattern, area rivers
and streams should for the most part be able to handle this next
shot of precipitation.
The forecast for area rivers, stream, creeks, and reservoirs calls
for levels to remain below action stage into the weekend.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
- Showers, isolated storms possible for tonight
- Dry end to week, more comfortable humidity
- Rain chances return for Sunday into Monday
Showers and Isolated Storms Possible Tonight:
Surface observational analysis shows a weak boundary/convergence zone
oriented west to east through south central Minnesota into west Central
Wisconsin. Satellite imagery shows an associated region of developing
agitated cumulus with radar scans showing scattered light showers.
Cannot rule out some isolated thunder once cells can become glaciated.
Although the western portions of the line have had reports of funnel
clouds, not expecting much more development with these pulse like cells
as the low level wind shear is very limited.
With just near 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and little capping, these cells are
expected to continue cycling through bubbling up and diminishing
throughout the remainder of this afternoon until surface heating ends
with the setting sun. The near stationary boundary will eventually be
pushed out of the area by an approaching cold front from the northwest.
Currently watching a convective system surging through eastern South
Dakota. Current trajectory from radar trends as well as most of the
meso-model guidance members keep the heaviest core of precipitation
passing to the southwest of the forecast area. Will continue to monitor
this, as portions of northeast Iowa have near saturated soils from
recent rainfall and are vulnerable to rapid onset flooding with any
additional heavy rainfall. Warm cloud depths exceeding 3.5 km and PWs
nearing 2" would support efficient rainfall producing storms.
Dry Late Week, Rain Chances Early Next Week:
A dry and pleasant start to the weekend is expected on Saturday.
Ridging to the west will set up a northwest flow pattern, cooling
temperatures a bit to seasonable highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Lower dewpoint temperatures compared to the past few days are also
expected, so should get a break from the recent muggy conditions and
have much more comfortable weather.
The next chance for rain will be Sunday into Monday as a low pressure
system moves in. Pieces of shortwave energy will make their way across
the area as a cold front moves through. Westerly moisture transport
should increase PWATs to about 2.1 inches, which is well above the 90th
percentile for this time of year according to SPC sounding
climatologies. On Sunday night, the warm cloud layer could be 4000-4500
meters, which combined with high PWATs, could signal these showers to
be heavy rain producers. The bulk of this moisture should be in the
area Sunday night into Monday morning, aligned with the passage of the
cold front. Storms could also develop ahead of the cold front through
much of Minnesota. The most favorable conditions for strong to severe
storms appears to be to the west of the area, though storms are also
possible in the CWA. The GFS suggests up to about 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
Sunday night and a moderate amount of effective bulk shear in the area.
Though these values are higher to the west, if western convection hangs
on, stronger storms could possibly reach the area.
Mid-week looks to have off-and-on shower chances, though it is too
early to determine severe storm potential. Showers generally appear to
mostly impact areas east of the Mississippi River, though with it being
a couple days out, the spatial extent of precipitation can change.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
The showers out across Minnesota continue to hang on this evening
as satellite data shows a weak short wave trough with this
activity. The RAP this evening has latched on to this wave and
continue to move it rather slowly to the southeast and across the
area overnight into Friday morning. With this weak forcing, there
is a least a chance that the showers could move in so have added a
VCSH back in to both sites. Still the possibility of some MVFR
ceilings developing overnight with the model trends still showing
KLSE having a better chance of getting into these than KRST. Once
the clouds lift out Friday, should be VFR into Friday evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
- Additional showers and storms possible for the rest of the day and
tonight, severe threat low
- MCS possible tonight into early Friday, though coverage and track
remains uncertain. Best potential south/southeast.
- Lingering showers and non-severe storms Friday, dry most of the
-Mainly isolated storm activity Sunday/Monday, otherwise dry weather
largely returns next week
After the busier morning of lingering showers and storms mainly
across the south, conditions mainly dried up into the early
afternoon. Showers have since developed again near the IA/MO border
through the afternoon, along with some isolated cells developing off
to the west posing little to no risk at this time. GOES satellite i
imagery shows the majority of the state covered with clouds,
though some pockets of clearing have occurred from time to time,
which have likely aided the recently developed areas of activity.
Temperatures have increased into the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest
to the north were more insolation has been able to reach the
surface compared to the rest of the state.
As the shortwave continues to move across the region for the
remainder of the day into Friday, additional showers and storms are
expected. Heavy rain remains a concern with additional storms late
this afternoon through the evening, mainly south/southeast. RAP
model soundings continue to point at PWATs exceeding 2 inches with a
deep layer of warm clouds extending beyond 16 kft over the area.
Wind profiles continue to prove unfavorable through the atmosphere
for severe potential, with shear values below 25 knots, though given
the overall slow moving nature and lighter mean wind values could
lead to training storms and therefore higher rain totals. Given the
cloud cover throughout the day, capping could be a limiting factor
for storms to really get going later today, though if they do it
could at least tap into the higher instability values around 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE near the IA/MO border and south. SPC continues to
trend down the severe potential, with a marginal risk near the far
south and a general thunder risk for most areas of Iowa where
conditions are looking less favorable for severe risks. Main
concerns over the marginal area would be small hail and some
damaging gusts, though heavy rain is overall the main concern. Storm
coverage continues to vary across models, as the NAM and RAP suggest
scattered showers and storms across the north and central parts of
the state, though further south/southeast into MO/IL a developing
closed low paired with a MCS looks to impact the area by the late
afternoon through the evening. The HREF ensemble largely depict
the MCS remaining further south of the CWA through this time, with
only isolated to scattered activity across Iowa, though some have
it further north into southern and even parts of central Iowa.
Looking at overall forcing, this looks to mainly be contained to
the south over Missouri will the LLJ developing this evening and
overnight will be more impactful. Given these considerations
overall, confidence is low on the potential flooding threat due to
model inconsistencies and lack of forcing, though ingredients are
generally present. Decided to forego a new Flood Watch issuance,
though some areas mainly south/southeast cannot be ruled out to
potentially see upwards of 3 inches in some isolated areas.
Scattered showers and storms are looking to continue through much of
Friday, though these will remain scattered and will likely lead to
hit or miss chances for any specific location. Little to no concern
is expected with these storms, as instability looks rather minimal
and shear again not looking favorable. Highs are expected to remain
on the more comfortable side in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A pattern
change is expected by Friday evening into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds in over the northern plains into the upper Midwest. A
dry and mainly sunny Saturday is likely as a result, paired with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and light winds. By Sunday,
the upper ridge is suggested to break down as it travels east,
leading to a more zonal flow paired with a shortwave over the Upper
Midwest. A boundary moving across the region looks to bring
additional showers and thunderstorms as deterministic models hint
at. Dry air over much of Iowa will likely lead to minimal impact
through at least most of the area, though northern Iowa could see
some shower and storm activity mainly through the morning. Into
Monday, a stronger shortwave trough is expected to trek across the
Upper Midwest, but again the presence of moisture depicted from
guidance looks limited, compared to MN/WI where the greatest
potential for severe weather is greater. Temperatures are expected
to be slightly warmer over the region as low level flow returns
southwesterly, with highs Sunday into early next in the 80s to low
90s. Good news is that after Monday, a stretch of dry weather is
looking likely as a strong area of mid to upper level ridging takes
over the western half of the CONUS.
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
From 00z to 06z, showers and thunderstorms possible at northern
terminals, causing IFR conditions at times with visby reduction.
Rain possible at all terminals after 06z with MVFR and IFR
ceilings in the morning. May have brief return of rain at end of
TAF period, but left out of TAF.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
558 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
This morning`s sounding reported 0.84 inches of PWAT while Wednesday
morning this value reached 1.00 inches. Still above normal but it
matches up well with forecast PWATs decreasing as drier air begins
to move in. So while, yes, drier air is moving in we can still
expect one more day of convection. As most of the moisture now
resides over the northern half of the CWA, that`s where one would
expect most convection to develop. The HRRR agrees and is favoring
the northern half of the CWA while the NAMNEST is showing a bit more
development to our south. The NBM likes both solutions and puts the
best chances for convection along the Continental Divide, the Book
Cliffs, central mountains, and San Juans...so a bit more widespread
than either solution. As of 2PM, looks like the HRRR is winning as
most convection has indeed fired north of the I-70 corridor though
plenty of convective buildup can be found down south. We`ll see
how things look in a couple of hours.
As far as convection itself is concerned, the sounding this
morning showed dry midlevels and a quasi-V profile so convection
will start heading towards the more hail/gusty winds variety
versus heavy rainers. Having said that, available moisture is
still higher than average so some of these heavy rainers can`t be
completely ruled out this afternoon and evening.
High pressure continues to build in from the east heading into
Friday and effectively shuts off moisture transport from the south.
PWATs will continue to decrease as a result. As the high pressure
center sets up over New Mexico and Colorado, subsidence aloft will
inhibit any convection while temperatures start to rise. Highs
Friday will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today and we can
expect more of that heading into the long term period.
Despite dry and warmer conditions entering the picture, fire weather
concerns remain on the low side. While humidities will drop to the
single digits across much of the area, generally light winds are
expected so some localized critical fire weather conditions are
possible but nothing widespread enough to warrant any Red Flag
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
A westward shift of high pressure, will place Colorado directly
under the ridge of anomalously high 500mb geopotential heights by
Saturday. By this point, environmental conditions upstream will
favor warm and dry air advection from the southwest, truncating the
source from recent monsoonal moisture down to our southeast. As a
result, high temperatures will climb above normal through the
weekend and limit the chance for afternoon showers to higher terrain
along the Divide. A weak shortwave rippling through the ridge of
high pressure will support an uptick in afternoon convection Sunday.
However, the main moisture source shifts from the Gulf of Mexico and
confines the extent of storm development to the Front Range.
Confidence is high for these conditions to persist through the first
half of the long term period, resulting in several days of triple
digits for desert valleys across eastern Utah and west-central
Colorado. Ensemble forecasts reveal Saturday and Sunday as the
driest period, with PWATs dropping down below 0.4 in for GJT.
However, moving into next week, both the EMCWF and GFS ensembles
show a slow upward trend in PWATs for our CWA each day as recycled
moisture rotating over New Mexico and Arizona start to push the dry
airmass northeastward. In addition, a deepening low off the PacNW
coast is forecast to draw Pacific moisture back into the Desert
Southwest by the end of the week. If this comes to fruition, a
monsoonal plume of moisture (with PWATs up to 200 percent of normal)
could trickle back into the region by next weekend. Until then, the
region will remain relatively warm with mostly sunny skies through
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Afternoon convection and showers will end this evening and winds
will diminish as well. Overnight conditions will remain quiet with
VFR conditions at terminals through midday. Isolated showers at
mountain sites will remain a possibility tomorrow afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
708 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with some
spotty cumulus over northeast zones due to proximity to a weak
surface trough. With mainly subsidence under a high pressure, winds
have mainly been light/variable and temperatures are currently
ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s.
For the remainder of the afternoon hours into this evening, the
weather focus will be on the potential for strong to even severe
storm development. The airmass remains humid/moist with dewpts
ranging from the mid 50s west into the 60s going east. DCape values
currently in the 1000-1300 j/kg range, along with models showing
inverted-v soundings, suggest strong, damaging wind potential. also,
pw values range from 1-1.4 inches and with slow low level winds and
winds westerly around 20kts at 500mb, locally heavy rainfall is also
possible and could lead to flash flooding. There could be a small
window for hail threat, but when these storms collapse, wind
expected as main threat.
The latest HRRR, NamNest and RAP all show scattered storm potential,
aside from the few isolated storms currently going. These are not
expected to get going until around/after 00z Friday, and only last a
few hours around 04z-05z. Have used isolated/scattered wording in
the forecast as a result. SPC continues to hold us in a marginal
risk for the entire cwa.
Going into Friday, upper ridging in place at 500-700mb is going to
set us up for another hot day. At the surface, high pressure sets up
east of the region, allowing for east-southeast surface flow into
the area. Looking for low level moisture to persist over the area
with dewpts in the 60s by the afternoon. The frontal boundary draped
over Colorado today will shift a bit more east on Friday, with
models forming a weak low over southeast Colorado. This will be the
focus for another round of strong to severe storms to develop.
Western portions of the cwa in focus as SPC continues a marginal
risk for areas along/west of Highway 25. Wind, hail and heavy rain
Friday night into Saturday will have the area seeing a reprieve in
chances for precipitation, but hot wx will continue as dominant
upper ridge in place. This will work in tandem with southwest
downslope surface flow to bring about above normal temps.
For temps, with upper ridge still pronounced over the region, still
looking for hot highs to persist for Friday into the first half of
the upcoming weekend. friday will have a range in the lower to mid
90s, then mid to upper 90s for Saturday. While no records expected
to be tied or broken both days, these numbers will remain above
normal for this time of the year. For overnight lows, tonight and
Friday night will have a west to east gradient ranging from the
lower to upper 60s, warmest east. Saturday night will have a
slightly warmer trend with mid 60s west, to lower and mid 70s east.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Models are still agreeing that a ridge will be present on Sunday
with lower-level winds coming from the south, possibly gusting to
over 20kts. This will create a very hot and sunny day, with
elevated fire weather risks as the RH values will also be in the
teens and lower twenties across the CWA. High temperatures for
nearly all of the Tri-State area will be in the triple digits.
Heat indices could reach 105 degrees, especially in areas east of
Highway 23 and north of Highway 36. Start planning ahead to stay
cool this weekend!
In the upper atmosphere, we will see a trough in Canada push out
the ridge that has been sitting over us, causing the flow to
become more zonal. Monday morning we expect to see a mild surface
cold front work through the region which will give us a slight
break from the extremely hot temperatures we have been facing.
High temperatures for Monday will stay in the 90s, but we will
have a chance at getting some precipitation in the evening.
Tuesday evening also has a chance of precipitation, but confidence
is not as high for this event. Tuesday is looking to be our
coolest day with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the
upper 50s and 60s.
After Tuesday, we will begin yet another gradual warm up moving
towards the later half of the workweek. On Wednesday, an upper-
level high pressure system starts intensifying over the four
corners region. This will push the trough, mentioned early, to the
east and give the upper-level flow a northwesterly direction over
the Tri-State area. Currently, models are showing that the high
pressure system will stay stationary over the Four Corners area.
Skies look to clear up during the day and lower-level winds will
be coming from the south giving us high temperatures for Wednesday
and Thursday in the 90s.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 704 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Ended up amending the GLD TAF for a brief period of prevailing
winds of 31020G40kts from 0130-0205Z behind thunderstorm outflow
that has persisted longer than initially expected as thunderstorms
have also persisted over far northeast Colorado into extreme
VFR conditions will persist as the prevailing condition at MCK
and GLD through the 00Z TAF period.
Thunderstorms moving in from the west over far eastern Colorado
have thrown out an outflow boundary ahead of the storms. Storms
are expected to dissipate as they move into far western Kansas
and extreme southwest Nebraska. Other than an increase in mid and
high level clouds as remnants of the storms move across the area,
it remains uncertain if the outflow will remain intact as it
continues east of the dissipating storms and may not impact the
GLD site. If the outflow does remain intact, it should arrive at
GLD around 0130Z requiring an update to the TAF. MCK being further
to the east, is not currently expected to be affected by
thunderstorm outflow this evening.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
* An excessive heat warning is in effect for portions of central and
all of south-central and southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT this
evening. See latest product for more details.
* An excessive heat warning is in effect for portions of south-
central and southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT Friday evening.
* Showers and storms will be possible for most of our CWA tonight.
* Saturday looks to be cooler behind a front with drier air keeping
heat indices down.
A weak shortwave impulse is expected to move across northern Kansas
today and this evening, which should assist in the southward
movement of a weak frontal boundary over central Kansas. The
Mesoscale models have backed off some on storms forming along the
boundary, but thinking is that we will see scattered storms form
over central Kansas this afternoon and evening before progressing
south and eastward along the front boundary. The NAM, RAP, and HRRR
are all in pretty good agreement that effective shear will be lower
today (below 20kts) than yesterday (30 to 40kts) with less
directional shear expected as well so at this time organized
convection is not expected. Instead the may concern will be pulse up
storms that quickly pulse back down. These can be tricky due to the
outflow and winds that are produced when the storms collapsed.
Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) will be more than sufficient for severe
downbursts so a few 60 mph wind reports would not be surprising. The
hail threat looks pretty low with subsevere hail up to nickel size
expected. Can completely rule out severe hail up to ping pong size
if a storm becomes rooted along the boundary where directional shear
may be enhanced.
Friday still looks to be humid so we may hold on to some high heat
indices, especially in south-central and southeast Kansas. We dry
out Saturday which will allow heat indices to fall below 100 across
the area. Ridging begins to build back in late Saturday and we will
see highs return to the upper 90s and low 100s on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Upper ridging is expected to continue Monday with a shortwave moving
over the Northern Plains during the day Monday. This will break down
the ridge once more while sending down another cold front through
the Plains. There`s still some uncertainty on the exact pattern, but
the global ensembles are in general agreement of retrograding the
upper ridge westward, which could put our area in a prolonged period
of northwest flow and storms. Where the ridge sets up will have
drastic differences in what type of weather we see. A ridge further
east will keep up hot and dry, while a ridge further west would keep
us cooler and wet.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Rather benign weather pattern for all sites over the next 24
hours. VFR conditions will prevail at all locations. However, one
item we will need to keep and eye on will be at SLN and RSL. A
couple of models are hinting at MVFR cigs after midnight towards
12z. For now, I will opt to keep those out of the taf and see what
the next run brings. I have also kept VCTS out of the tafs. The
best instability and shear lies to the north of all of our taf
sites. FROPA will prevail during this taf cycle, however, speeds
should behave under 15kts at all locations.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 95 71 92 / 30 10 10 0
Hutchinson 72 93 70 92 / 30 10 0 0
Newton 74 92 70 90 / 30 10 0 0
ElDorado 74 91 70 88 / 30 10 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 76 94 72 91 / 20 10 10 10
Russell 70 92 68 92 / 20 10 10 0
Great Bend 71 92 69 93 / 20 0 10 0
Salina 72 92 70 90 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 71 92 70 90 / 30 10 0 0
Coffeyville 78 97 73 92 / 30 10 10 10
Chanute 78 93 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
Iola 76 92 71 88 / 30 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 78 96 73 91 / 30 10 10 10
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052-
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ092>096-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
823 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact parts of
central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning. While not
everyone will see significant rainfall, it appears locations along
and southwest of a Macomb to Taylorville line may pick up an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain. After that, cooler and drier
conditions will be on tap for the upcoming weekend.
Issued at 821 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
A bit of a tricky forecast on tap for this evening. While there
remains some uncertainty on the track of storms overnight, there
is growing consensus from the last several runs of the HRRR as
well as other CAMs that the track of storms tonight will take a
similar path to the heaviest rain from earlier today, roughly a
Quincy to Springfield to Terre Haute line. A widespread swath of
1 to 2 inches fell in this corridor earlier today with some
localized pockets of rainfall in excess of 2 inches. We should
begin to get a better sense of the exact path of tonight`s storms
as they begin to develop over the next 2-3 hours in response to a
modest LLJ developing over portions of central and northern MO.
Storms should begin to move into the central Illinois forecast
area around or after midnight tonight. Latest flash flood guidance
from the RFCs shows roughly 1.5-2.0 inch one hour rainfall rates
and 2.0-2.5 inch three hour rainfall rates could produce flash
flooding, with some locally lower amounts most notably near the
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Convective complex that rolled across much of central Illinois
earlier today is currently exiting the far eastern KILX CWA into
Indiana. Meanwhile scattered showers have developed over northern
Missouri/southern Iowa and are spilling into the Illinois River
Valley. All the precipitation is developing north of a nearly
stationary frontal boundary extending from central Missouri into
far southern Illinois. The front has been pushed slightly further
south due to outflow from the previous storm complex: however, it
remains close enough to significantly impact the weather across
central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning. A 30-40kt 850mb
jet is progged to develop from the Southern Plains into Missouri
late tonight, which will interact with the boundary to bring
another round of thunderstorms to the region. Models still show a
good deal of variability: however, any convection will likely
follow nearly the same path of the previous storm complex (if not
a bit further south). HRRR has been honing in on this solution all
afternoon...with cells developing across northern Missouri late
this evening, then tracking east-southeastward into the CWA late.
Based on position of boundary and consistent signal from the HRRR,
think the heaviest rainfall will develop along/south of a
Rushville...to Mattoon line. With NAM precipitable water values
peaking between 2.50 and 2.75, the storms will be efficient rain-
producers and will therefore pose a flash-flooding risk. Given
recent heavy rainfall leading to wet soil conditions across part
of this area, have decided to issue a Flood Watch along and
southwest of a Macomb to Taylorville line from midnight tonight
through 15z/10am Friday. Further north, showers and thunderstorms
will be less numerous and will not pose such a high threat for
heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday
morning, then will shift E/SE into the Ohio River Valley toward
midday. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of the morning storm
complex will lead to a mostly dry afternoon...although a few stray
showers cannot be ruled out.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
As upper ridging builds over the Rockies and High Plains,
increasing northwesterly flow will be noted downstream across the
Midwest Friday into Saturday. This will push a cold front well
south of Illinois and bring a significant airmass change to the
area. As a result, high temperatures will drop into the lower 80s
for both Saturday and Sunday with low relative humidity levels.
After that, the upper ridge will remain locked in place over the
Rockies through the remainder of the extended. Another weak cold
front will drop through Illinois in the prevailing northwesterly
flow pattern late Monday into Tuesday: however, it will have
little moisture to work with. Have therefore only carried slight
chance PoPs with FROPA at this time. After a brief warm-up to
around 90 degrees ahead of the front on Monday, readings will drop
back into the middle 80s for the remainder of the week.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible through the
period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage late this evening across portions of northern MO then
congeal and spread east across portions of central IL overnight.
For now the I-72 corridor is roughly the northern end of the
expected track of storms, but couldn`t rule out storms staying
south of all the terminals. Scattered storms are expected to
redevelop during the day Friday. Meanwhile, MVFR or IFR ceilings
are expected to redevelop late tonight and persist into the
afternoon Friday. Winds will generally by light overnight, out of
the southeast or variable, then a northeast breeze will develop
mid afternoon Friday.
Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday morning for
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1053 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
The focus in the short-term remains on multiple potential or ongoing
hazards, ranging from excessive heat to the possible strong/severe
storms and flash flooding tonight.
Starting with the heat, the combination of thicker debris clouds and
outflow associated with upstream convection helped limit
temperatures. Therefore, heat index values for portions of central
and east-central Missouri today as well as southwest Illinois stayed
well-below warning criteria so have canceled these counties early.
Further south, the warning was extended through Friday due to
another day with likely peak heat index values around 105F. This
isn`t a sure thing however and is conditional on how convection
evolves late tonight and into Friday morning. As we saw both today
and yesterday, a thunderstorm complex can have a big impact on
keeping temperatures down, even in areas further southeast where
they don`t even make it. Cloud debris and outflow early Friday could
prevent these counties from hitting criteria.
Convection development is likely to begin late this evening toward
the midnight hour as a surface wave of low pressure transverses the
quasi-stationary boundary. Earlier runs of the HRRR was showing at
least some isolated strong/severe cells in central and eastern
Missouri near the surface boundary. However, do not believe this
scenario is particularly likely given subsidence behind prior MCS
and lack of support in other CAMs. Widespread storms are expected
overnight tonight along/just north of the track of the surface wave
of low pressure. This puts northeast Missouri and west-central
Illinois again as the likeliest areas to see widespread rainfall.
Given pockets of 2-3+ inches of rain in parts of northeast Missouri,
precipitable water values well over 2.00" (above 99th percentile),
and deep warm cloud depths (~14 kft), flash flooding is a concern.
Therefore, have issued a watch for these areas from midnight
tonight through early Friday morning.
Regarding the potential for strong/severe convection, cannot rule
out an isolated strong/severe storm early this evening like earlier
HRRR runs showed. Given lack of mid/upper air support however
alluded to above/subsidence behind the preceding MCS, do not think
this is a likely scenario. Regarding storms late tonight,
instability available is still a question mark due to the earlier
storms in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. Cannot rule
out some marginally severe hail or damaging wind gusts in any
organized cluster of storms, but current thinking is that the threat
will be isolated/unorganized in nature if any severe weather occurs
By early Friday morning, the trailing cold front is likely to be
nearly bisecting the CWA. CAMs show steady weakening and eventual
dissipation of storms overnight into Friday morning. This largely
makes sense given lessening diurnal instability and some mid/upper
level subsidence behind the departing shortwave trough. However,
would not be surprised to see at least isolated/widely scattered
showers/weak thunderstorms percolate as the low-level jet veers more
to the west. CAMs have been a bit too fast with the dissipation of
nocturnal convection the past couple of days, so made sure to have
at least some low PoPs through the morning. Thunderstorms are
expected to either re-develop or strengthen by mid afternoon along
the cold front before quickly exiting the CWA to the south and east.
Based on this timing, the better chance of a few strong/severe
storms Friday afternoon is also to our south and east. Some
showers/weak thunderstorms are possible behind the front as well,
but should quickly weaken and dissipate during the evening hours
with loss of instability.
The rest of Friday night should be dry, with gradually cooler and
drier (lower humidity) conditions advecting in from the north. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop back into the mid 60s to near 70
degrees which would be right around normal for early/mid July.
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
(Saturday - Sunday Night)
A short period of below normal temperatures along with lower
humidity. Dewpoints initially Saturday may still be on the touch
high side, but should decrease throughout the day as persistent low-
level northeasterly flow continues to advect in drier and drier air
into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs on Saturday and Sunday are
likely to be mostly in the low to mid 80s. Saturday should be a
touch cooler than Sunday, but dewpoints should be lower on Sunday
compared to Saturday so both days should feel relatively comfortable
for this time of year. Saturday night/Sunday morning is expected to
be the coolest of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Like
the high temperatures, these also would be slightly below normal for
(Monday - Next Thursday)
A quick (and short!) moderation in temperatures is forecast on
Monday as strong mid/upper level anticyclone to our west strengthens
and expands a bit eastward. The low-level flow becomes southerly,
not only helping to increase temperatures but also humidity levels.
High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast with peak heat
index values of around 100 degrees. At this moment in time, this
appears to be more "typical" summertime hot/humid conditions and
should stay below advisory (105F+) criteria.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong trough of varying
degree crossing the Great Lakes early/mid next week. This will bring
a cold front through the region Monday night into early Tuesday.
This front will bring a low chance of thunderstorms to the region.
Behind the front, a prolonged period of dry weather is expected with
low humidity and at least near normal temperatures. Differences
remain between the stronger trough most EPS members suggest vs. the
GEFS which is not as strong with the Great Lakes trough. Given a
broad agreement with the EPS from the CMCE, my guess is that the
cooler solutions are more likely so leaned slightly below normal for
temperatures for the middle of next week.
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022
Overnight thunderstorms are beginning to develop and move into
northwest Missouri, and will almost certainly impact UIN between the
start of the 06Z TAF period and early Friday morning. These
thunderstorms are likely to produce lightning and heavy rain, with
strong and erratic wind gusts also possible at times.
Less certainty exists at the central Missouri and St. Louis area
terminals, although all may see at least some shower/thunderstorm
activity overnight through mid morning...including STL. These
terminals are more likely to receive a glancing blow from these
storms, but perhaps still enough for visibility and ceiling
reductions at times. A confidence is low along the I-70 corridor.
A lull in activity is expected with a return to VFR conditions in
most areas during the late morning and early afternoon. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms may impact UIN and the St. Louis
area terminals during the mid to late afternoon, although confidence
is low and the most robust afternoon activity is likely to occur
southeast of St. Louis.
MO...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Friday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-
Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for Crawford MO-
Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Friday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for Randolph IL.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022
A wavering front allows shower and storm chances to continue
through the weekend. Activity will generally be hit or miss today
with an uptick expected Friday and Saturday as additional waves of
energy move through. By Sunday, a cold front looks to push through
the region with drier and less humid air by early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Thursday...
Storm coverage this afternoon has been much more isolated,
compared to yesterday afternoon. However, still a very moist and
unstable airmass in place and a few storms have been on the
stronger side. Should expect to continue to see activity wane
through the overnight hours with a few spotty areas of rain,
mainly in the Piedmont, lingering into early Friday. Areas of
fog also appears to be more likely tonight with lesser cloud
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...
More scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and
evening with a focus across VA/NC Piedmont region. Another round
It`s a rinse and repeat type of forecast with little change to the
overall "ring of fire" weather pattern. Broad upper level ridging
remains over the mid-Mississippi River Valley with pieces of
shortwave energy diving south through the ohio River Valley and down
into the Carolinas on west/northwest flow. Meanwhile, at the surface
a stationary boundary continues to oscillate across our region
acting as an additional trigger for storms during the afternoon and
Our quiet conditions of this morning have now given way to a
scattering of convection that continues to feed off of the sultry
environment. Temperatures have climbed fast with many areas
east of mountains getting back into the mid to upper 80s and low
90s. You combine this with dewpoint values in the mid to upper
60s and low 70s to get heat index numbers close to 100 degrees.
With the increased heat and ample low level moisture, surface based
CAPE values look to push toward the 1500-2500 j/kg range. These
values will be at their highest across the VA/NC line and across the
Piedmont where better heating will take place. As for shear, 0-6km
values sit between 20-30 kts yielding the predominant threat of
damaging winds with any storms that form. Localized runoff issues
and flooding cannot be ruled out as well with precipitable water
values on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 inches.
Models continue to struggle with overall timing on storms today with
most solutions actually showing a bit of a lull in the action. Each
model has varying solutions with the 17z HRRR/RAP showing smattering
of convection while the 12z NAMnest and RAP have a bit more
organization across the southern Shenandoah Valley as well as in
areas along the VA/NC line. Once again it will be another feast or
famine type of day with some locations getting heavy rain and others
getting nothing at all.
For now opted with a blend of the hi-res guidance similar to the
previous shift with a focus across the western North Carolina
mountains east into the Piedmont. The same can be said, for a
secondary area of storms that is likely to develop across the
Alleghanys and southern Shenandoah Valley east into central
Virginia. Confidence is a bit higher in these areas for storm
development based upon a better surface and upper level reflection
pushing out of the midwest/Ohio River Valley this afternoon and
evening according to the models. This would follow a similar trend to
the last few days with convection split to the north and south of
the area along with a smattering of activity in between.
Storm activity gradually weakens and diminishes this evening with the
loss of any daytime heating. An isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out though through the overnight with the front meandering
nearby and another incumbent piece of shortwave energy pushing in
from the Ohio River Valley. Patchy fog is also possible especially
in areas that do see the rain due in part to our sauna-like airmass
that remains in place. Overnight low look to fall back into the mid
to upper 60s over the mountains to low to mid 70s out east.
More storms are likely Friday as another wave of shortwave energy
pushes through. Once again the risk for severe weather remains with
damaging winds and localized flooding as the main threats. The
highest threat for organized severe weather appears to be to our
west with scattered multicellular clusters across our region. Highs
will range from the low 80s over the mountains to low 90s out east.
Forecast confidence is low on coverage for storms today and impact
on high temperatures, but moderate that some locations will likely
see strong to severe storms once again, with heavy rainfall.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence remains high for more showers and thunderstorms
throughout the upcoming weekend.
The Mid Atlantic will remain embedded within an upper level trough
during the upcoming weekend. A cold front should slowly move
southeastward from the Ohio River Valley during Friday night into
Saturday and reach the Appalachian Mountains by Saturday afternoon.
As a result, the heat and moisture combined with increasing synoptic
lift will yield more chances of showers and thunderstorms. Although
lingering convection from Friday will spill into Friday night before
dissipating, the greatest risk of strong storms in this forecast
period appears to be Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Damaging
winds would be the primary threat if anything becomes severe.
Temperatures should trend lower by Sunday, but chances of showers
and thunderstorms could remain during Sunday afternoon. Drier and
cooler air should arrive by Sunday night.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is increasing for drier weather by Monday, but more
showers and thunderstorms may return later in the week.
With the cold front finally south of the Mid Atlantic to allow high
pressure to pass overhead on Monday, the active weather pattern from
the past week should subside. Although lingering moisture could
spark a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in northwest
North Carolina by Monday afternoon, most locations will remain dry.
Quiet conditions should persist through Monday night into Tuesday
morning, but another cold front will approach the Ohio River Valley
by Tuesday afternoon as the heat and humidity increases. Chances of
convection should rise again during late Tuesday into Wednesday as
the cold front arrives. Eventually, this front will reach the East
Coast toward Thursday as storm chances begin to decrease.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...
Storm activity continues to diminish this evening and an
isolated shower or storm chance remains possible overnight with
the front nearby. Patchy fog and low clouds also cannot be
ruled out since the airmass has yet to change. Any fog will be
dependent upon how much clearing we see and to if mid and high
level clouds from convection upstream pushes in. For now made a
mention of MVFR fog at the majority of the TAF sites with a
higher likelihood of IFR-LIFR vsbys/cigs across Greenbrier
Any fog and low clouds look to lift after 12z Friday morning giving
way to BKN-OVC skies. Once again showers and storms will be on the
rise for the afternoon and evening hours.
Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period outside
any showers or storms that may form.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Our pattern of daily chances of showers and storms will continue
through at least Saturday, with decreasing chances and coverage on
Sunday. By Monday, high pressure will finally push in bringing drier
air and less humidity. Showers and storms return by the middle of
For the most part, daytime conditions will yield VFR conditions
outside the heavier showers and storms. During the overnights, areas
of temporary sub-VFR ceilings and patchy fog area possible, with
improving conditions during the morning.
As of 900 AM EDT Wednesday...
The Roanoke NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards WXL60 transmitter is
operating in low power mode during antenna maintenance. Repairs
are expected to be completed late Sunday afternoon, July 10.