Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/08/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry, tranquil, and pleasant weather conditions will prevail into early next week thanks to high pressure overhead. A stray shower is possible tonight and Friday in response to an advancing cold front. The next best chance for more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures through the middle of next week will run near seasonable levels. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 952 PM, a quiet evening across the area continues. Radar not showing any echoes at this time, but HRRR continues to suggest some light showers will develop over southern half of area overnight in response to convergence along a dewpoint boundary. Adjusted low temps down in southern Adirondacks where temps have already fallen to earlier forecast mins. Winds are generally light except in and along mid Hudson Valley where southerly winds are still 10-15 mph. Temps ranging from the low to mid 50s in the southern Adirondacks to the low 70s along the Hudson River. Previous... Quiet weather will continue across the forecast area through tonight. Sct fair weather Cu underneath a capping inversion around 700 mb will diminish around sunset with the loss of solar heating. Good radiational cooling will develop overnight with clear skies and light winds, and this will lead to the development of patchy fog toward daybreak, mainly in normally fog prone, cooler outlying areas. Overnight lows will be in the 50s over normally cooler locations north of the Capital District and over higher terrain, with lowers 60s in the Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A corridor of moisture and thunderstorms will be well established from the Ohio Valley eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday through Saturday along a frontal zone, while mainly dry weather continues to the north including our area. There may be an isolated shower across a small fraction of the area during the day Friday as a weak, ill- defined cold front advances south from southern Canada in mid- level northwest flow. However the atmosphere will be quite dry through Friday and any showers will be few and far between. A reinforcing shot of dry air will overspread the area from the north Friday night and Saturday as high pressure builds southeast from Quebec. This high pressure area will settle across the northeast CONUS on Sunday bringing continued dry weather through the rest of the weekend. Good radiational cooling conditions will result in temperatures running below normal during the night in this pattern, and probably at least a little below guidance blends, especially Saturday night. Lows Friday night will range from the lower 60s over urbanized areas in the Hudson to 50s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night could be as low as the lower 40s over the Adirondacks, with mid 50s to lower 60s in the Hudson Valley. Highs Friday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s, then a few degrees lower Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain in control Sunday night through Monday bringing continued dry weather across the region. As the center of the high departs to the east, a light southerly flow may develop, especially along the Hudson Valley, which will act to keep temperatures a bit more elevated than Saturday night. Lows should generally be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Sunshine on Monday along with a southerly breeze and 850 hPa temperatures increasing to +15- 17 C should lead to daytime highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations to the 80s in the valleys. It is not out of the question a few valley locations approach 90. Surface low and associated cold front will begin to approach from the region late Monday night into Tuesday with our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on if some areas could reach peak heating before clouds and showers arrive. We will run with NBM guidance at this time which has temperatures on the higher side of guidance. This equates to mid-70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations to the mid-80s to lower 90s in the valleys. Uncertainty in the guidance exists Wednesday into Thursday whether or not this system will stall over our area or shift far enough to the east that drier air and high pressure can arrive. For now, we will run with the NBM which indicates at least slight chance to chances for continued showers and thunderstorms on these days. High temperatures should remain in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail through much of this time. At POU and PSF, increasing low-level moisture will likely lead to development of MVFR ceilings due to stratus overnight, most likely between 7-11z. There is a possibility of IFR ceilings at PSF, and confidence was high enough to include a temp there for a few hours late tonight. IFR ceilings are possible at POU as well late tonight until shortly after sunrise tomorrow, but confidence is not high enough to add to the TAF. Low-level moisture looks to remain south of ALB, so expecting VFR conditions here through the entire TAF period. Low clouds also remain south of GFL, but this may allow for fog/mist to develop here overnight until shortly after sunrise. Fog/mist could reduce ceilings and especially vsibilities to IFR or lower. Tomorrow morning, any fog quickly mixes out at GFL after 11-12z with a return to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. VFR conditions also prevail at ALB tomorrow. At POU and PSF, it may take until mid-morning for low stratus to mix out, but by 14-16z these sites too should see improvement back to VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at POU or PSF towards the end of the TAF period tomorrow, but will probably hold off until after 00Z/Saturday. After sunset, winds decrease to less than 5 kt from the southeast, which continues until mid-morning tomorrow. At that point, winds pick up to 5-10 kt from the northwest with some gusts to 20 kt. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Mainly dry, tranquil, and pleasant weather conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work week, the weekend into early next week thanks to high pressure overhead. A stray shower is possible on Friday in response to an advancing cold front. The next best chance for more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures through the middle of next week will run near seasonable levels. Maximum RH values tonight will rise to between 85 and 100 percent toward morning. On Friday, minimum RH values will range between 40-65%. Friday night, maximum RH values will range between 75-100%. For Saturday, minimum RH values will range between 30-45%. Saturday night, maximum RH values will range between 60-100% with the lowest values located south of I-90 and the highest values located north of I-90. Tonight, winds are expected to become light and variable at 5 kts or less. On Friday, winds are expected to develop out of the northwest at speeds between 3-8 kts. Friday night, winds are expected to shift out of the north at less than 5 kts. On Saturday, winds will pick up in magnitude out of the north at 5-10 kts. Saturday night, winds are expected to trend towards calm. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrology concerns for the Albany HSA are expected through at least the early parts of next week as dry weather is expected to persist through Monday of next week. Some much needed rainfall in the way of showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching storm system and upper trough from the Great Lakes Region will come in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Due to the lack of rainfall in recent days and the progressive nature of the pattern, area rivers and streams should for the most part be able to handle this next shot of precipitation. The forecast for area rivers, stream, creeks, and reservoirs calls for levels to remain below action stage into the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/MSE NEAR TERM...SND/MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Main FIRE WEATHER...MSE HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Key Messages: - Showers, isolated storms possible for tonight - Dry end to week, more comfortable humidity - Rain chances return for Sunday into Monday Showers and Isolated Storms Possible Tonight: Surface observational analysis shows a weak boundary/convergence zone oriented west to east through south central Minnesota into west Central Wisconsin. Satellite imagery shows an associated region of developing agitated cumulus with radar scans showing scattered light showers. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder once cells can become glaciated. Although the western portions of the line have had reports of funnel clouds, not expecting much more development with these pulse like cells as the low level wind shear is very limited. With just near 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and little capping, these cells are expected to continue cycling through bubbling up and diminishing throughout the remainder of this afternoon until surface heating ends with the setting sun. The near stationary boundary will eventually be pushed out of the area by an approaching cold front from the northwest. Currently watching a convective system surging through eastern South Dakota. Current trajectory from radar trends as well as most of the meso-model guidance members keep the heaviest core of precipitation passing to the southwest of the forecast area. Will continue to monitor this, as portions of northeast Iowa have near saturated soils from recent rainfall and are vulnerable to rapid onset flooding with any additional heavy rainfall. Warm cloud depths exceeding 3.5 km and PWs nearing 2" would support efficient rainfall producing storms. Dry Late Week, Rain Chances Early Next Week: A dry and pleasant start to the weekend is expected on Saturday. Ridging to the west will set up a northwest flow pattern, cooling temperatures a bit to seasonable highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lower dewpoint temperatures compared to the past few days are also expected, so should get a break from the recent muggy conditions and have much more comfortable weather. The next chance for rain will be Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system moves in. Pieces of shortwave energy will make their way across the area as a cold front moves through. Westerly moisture transport should increase PWATs to about 2.1 inches, which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year according to SPC sounding climatologies. On Sunday night, the warm cloud layer could be 4000-4500 meters, which combined with high PWATs, could signal these showers to be heavy rain producers. The bulk of this moisture should be in the area Sunday night into Monday morning, aligned with the passage of the cold front. Storms could also develop ahead of the cold front through much of Minnesota. The most favorable conditions for strong to severe storms appears to be to the west of the area, though storms are also possible in the CWA. The GFS suggests up to about 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE Sunday night and a moderate amount of effective bulk shear in the area. Though these values are higher to the west, if western convection hangs on, stronger storms could possibly reach the area. Mid-week looks to have off-and-on shower chances, though it is too early to determine severe storm potential. Showers generally appear to mostly impact areas east of the Mississippi River, though with it being a couple days out, the spatial extent of precipitation can change. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 The showers out across Minnesota continue to hang on this evening as satellite data shows a weak short wave trough with this activity. The RAP this evening has latched on to this wave and continue to move it rather slowly to the southeast and across the area overnight into Friday morning. With this weak forcing, there is a least a chance that the showers could move in so have added a VCSH back in to both sites. Still the possibility of some MVFR ceilings developing overnight with the model trends still showing KLSE having a better chance of getting into these than KRST. Once the clouds lift out Friday, should be VFR into Friday evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dahl/Peters AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Forecast Highlights: - Additional showers and storms possible for the rest of the day and tonight, severe threat low - MCS possible tonight into early Friday, though coverage and track remains uncertain. Best potential south/southeast. - Lingering showers and non-severe storms Friday, dry most of the weekend -Mainly isolated storm activity Sunday/Monday, otherwise dry weather largely returns next week After the busier morning of lingering showers and storms mainly across the south, conditions mainly dried up into the early afternoon. Showers have since developed again near the IA/MO border through the afternoon, along with some isolated cells developing off to the west posing little to no risk at this time. GOES satellite i imagery shows the majority of the state covered with clouds, though some pockets of clearing have occurred from time to time, which have likely aided the recently developed areas of activity. Temperatures have increased into the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest to the north were more insolation has been able to reach the surface compared to the rest of the state. As the shortwave continues to move across the region for the remainder of the day into Friday, additional showers and storms are expected. Heavy rain remains a concern with additional storms late this afternoon through the evening, mainly south/southeast. RAP model soundings continue to point at PWATs exceeding 2 inches with a deep layer of warm clouds extending beyond 16 kft over the area. Wind profiles continue to prove unfavorable through the atmosphere for severe potential, with shear values below 25 knots, though given the overall slow moving nature and lighter mean wind values could lead to training storms and therefore higher rain totals. Given the cloud cover throughout the day, capping could be a limiting factor for storms to really get going later today, though if they do it could at least tap into the higher instability values around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE near the IA/MO border and south. SPC continues to trend down the severe potential, with a marginal risk near the far south and a general thunder risk for most areas of Iowa where conditions are looking less favorable for severe risks. Main concerns over the marginal area would be small hail and some damaging gusts, though heavy rain is overall the main concern. Storm coverage continues to vary across models, as the NAM and RAP suggest scattered showers and storms across the north and central parts of the state, though further south/southeast into MO/IL a developing closed low paired with a MCS looks to impact the area by the late afternoon through the evening. The HREF ensemble largely depict the MCS remaining further south of the CWA through this time, with only isolated to scattered activity across Iowa, though some have it further north into southern and even parts of central Iowa. Looking at overall forcing, this looks to mainly be contained to the south over Missouri will the LLJ developing this evening and overnight will be more impactful. Given these considerations overall, confidence is low on the potential flooding threat due to model inconsistencies and lack of forcing, though ingredients are generally present. Decided to forego a new Flood Watch issuance, though some areas mainly south/southeast cannot be ruled out to potentially see upwards of 3 inches in some isolated areas. Scattered showers and storms are looking to continue through much of Friday, though these will remain scattered and will likely lead to hit or miss chances for any specific location. Little to no concern is expected with these storms, as instability looks rather minimal and shear again not looking favorable. Highs are expected to remain on the more comfortable side in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A pattern change is expected by Friday evening into the weekend as upper level ridging builds in over the northern plains into the upper Midwest. A dry and mainly sunny Saturday is likely as a result, paired with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and light winds. By Sunday, the upper ridge is suggested to break down as it travels east, leading to a more zonal flow paired with a shortwave over the Upper Midwest. A boundary moving across the region looks to bring additional showers and thunderstorms as deterministic models hint at. Dry air over much of Iowa will likely lead to minimal impact through at least most of the area, though northern Iowa could see some shower and storm activity mainly through the morning. Into Monday, a stronger shortwave trough is expected to trek across the Upper Midwest, but again the presence of moisture depicted from guidance looks limited, compared to MN/WI where the greatest potential for severe weather is greater. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer over the region as low level flow returns southwesterly, with highs Sunday into early next in the 80s to low 90s. Good news is that after Monday, a stretch of dry weather is looking likely as a strong area of mid to upper level ridging takes over the western half of the CONUS. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/ Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 From 00z to 06z, showers and thunderstorms possible at northern terminals, causing IFR conditions at times with visby reduction. Rain possible at all terminals after 06z with MVFR and IFR ceilings in the morning. May have brief return of rain at end of TAF period, but left out of TAF. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bury/Lee AVIATION...Donavon/Jimenez
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
558 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 This morning`s sounding reported 0.84 inches of PWAT while Wednesday morning this value reached 1.00 inches. Still above normal but it matches up well with forecast PWATs decreasing as drier air begins to move in. So while, yes, drier air is moving in we can still expect one more day of convection. As most of the moisture now resides over the northern half of the CWA, that`s where one would expect most convection to develop. The HRRR agrees and is favoring the northern half of the CWA while the NAMNEST is showing a bit more development to our south. The NBM likes both solutions and puts the best chances for convection along the Continental Divide, the Book Cliffs, central mountains, and San a bit more widespread than either solution. As of 2PM, looks like the HRRR is winning as most convection has indeed fired north of the I-70 corridor though plenty of convective buildup can be found down south. We`ll see how things look in a couple of hours. As far as convection itself is concerned, the sounding this morning showed dry midlevels and a quasi-V profile so convection will start heading towards the more hail/gusty winds variety versus heavy rainers. Having said that, available moisture is still higher than average so some of these heavy rainers can`t be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening. High pressure continues to build in from the east heading into Friday and effectively shuts off moisture transport from the south. PWATs will continue to decrease as a result. As the high pressure center sets up over New Mexico and Colorado, subsidence aloft will inhibit any convection while temperatures start to rise. Highs Friday will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today and we can expect more of that heading into the long term period. Despite dry and warmer conditions entering the picture, fire weather concerns remain on the low side. While humidities will drop to the single digits across much of the area, generally light winds are expected so some localized critical fire weather conditions are possible but nothing widespread enough to warrant any Red Flag Warnings. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 158 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A westward shift of high pressure, will place Colorado directly under the ridge of anomalously high 500mb geopotential heights by Saturday. By this point, environmental conditions upstream will favor warm and dry air advection from the southwest, truncating the source from recent monsoonal moisture down to our southeast. As a result, high temperatures will climb above normal through the weekend and limit the chance for afternoon showers to higher terrain along the Divide. A weak shortwave rippling through the ridge of high pressure will support an uptick in afternoon convection Sunday. However, the main moisture source shifts from the Gulf of Mexico and confines the extent of storm development to the Front Range. Confidence is high for these conditions to persist through the first half of the long term period, resulting in several days of triple digits for desert valleys across eastern Utah and west-central Colorado. Ensemble forecasts reveal Saturday and Sunday as the driest period, with PWATs dropping down below 0.4 in for GJT. However, moving into next week, both the EMCWF and GFS ensembles show a slow upward trend in PWATs for our CWA each day as recycled moisture rotating over New Mexico and Arizona start to push the dry airmass northeastward. In addition, a deepening low off the PacNW coast is forecast to draw Pacific moisture back into the Desert Southwest by the end of the week. If this comes to fruition, a monsoonal plume of moisture (with PWATs up to 200 percent of normal) could trickle back into the region by next weekend. Until then, the region will remain relatively warm with mostly sunny skies through Day 7. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Afternoon convection and showers will end this evening and winds will diminish as well. Overnight conditions will remain quiet with VFR conditions at terminals through midday. Isolated showers at mountain sites will remain a possibility tomorrow afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...ERW AVIATION...LTB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
708 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny with some spotty cumulus over northeast zones due to proximity to a weak surface trough. With mainly subsidence under a high pressure, winds have mainly been light/variable and temperatures are currently ranging from the lower 80s to lower 90s. For the remainder of the afternoon hours into this evening, the weather focus will be on the potential for strong to even severe storm development. The airmass remains humid/moist with dewpts ranging from the mid 50s west into the 60s going east. DCape values currently in the 1000-1300 j/kg range, along with models showing inverted-v soundings, suggest strong, damaging wind potential. also, pw values range from 1-1.4 inches and with slow low level winds and winds westerly around 20kts at 500mb, locally heavy rainfall is also possible and could lead to flash flooding. There could be a small window for hail threat, but when these storms collapse, wind expected as main threat. The latest HRRR, NamNest and RAP all show scattered storm potential, aside from the few isolated storms currently going. These are not expected to get going until around/after 00z Friday, and only last a few hours around 04z-05z. Have used isolated/scattered wording in the forecast as a result. SPC continues to hold us in a marginal risk for the entire cwa. Going into Friday, upper ridging in place at 500-700mb is going to set us up for another hot day. At the surface, high pressure sets up east of the region, allowing for east-southeast surface flow into the area. Looking for low level moisture to persist over the area with dewpts in the 60s by the afternoon. The frontal boundary draped over Colorado today will shift a bit more east on Friday, with models forming a weak low over southeast Colorado. This will be the focus for another round of strong to severe storms to develop. Western portions of the cwa in focus as SPC continues a marginal risk for areas along/west of Highway 25. Wind, hail and heavy rain threats. Friday night into Saturday will have the area seeing a reprieve in chances for precipitation, but hot wx will continue as dominant upper ridge in place. This will work in tandem with southwest downslope surface flow to bring about above normal temps. For temps, with upper ridge still pronounced over the region, still looking for hot highs to persist for Friday into the first half of the upcoming weekend. friday will have a range in the lower to mid 90s, then mid to upper 90s for Saturday. While no records expected to be tied or broken both days, these numbers will remain above normal for this time of the year. For overnight lows, tonight and Friday night will have a west to east gradient ranging from the lower to upper 60s, warmest east. Saturday night will have a slightly warmer trend with mid 60s west, to lower and mid 70s east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 126 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Models are still agreeing that a ridge will be present on Sunday with lower-level winds coming from the south, possibly gusting to over 20kts. This will create a very hot and sunny day, with elevated fire weather risks as the RH values will also be in the teens and lower twenties across the CWA. High temperatures for nearly all of the Tri-State area will be in the triple digits. Heat indices could reach 105 degrees, especially in areas east of Highway 23 and north of Highway 36. Start planning ahead to stay cool this weekend! In the upper atmosphere, we will see a trough in Canada push out the ridge that has been sitting over us, causing the flow to become more zonal. Monday morning we expect to see a mild surface cold front work through the region which will give us a slight break from the extremely hot temperatures we have been facing. High temperatures for Monday will stay in the 90s, but we will have a chance at getting some precipitation in the evening. Tuesday evening also has a chance of precipitation, but confidence is not as high for this event. Tuesday is looking to be our coolest day with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 50s and 60s. After Tuesday, we will begin yet another gradual warm up moving towards the later half of the workweek. On Wednesday, an upper- level high pressure system starts intensifying over the four corners region. This will push the trough, mentioned early, to the east and give the upper-level flow a northwesterly direction over the Tri-State area. Currently, models are showing that the high pressure system will stay stationary over the Four Corners area. Skies look to clear up during the day and lower-level winds will be coming from the south giving us high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 704 PM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022 UPDATED: Ended up amending the GLD TAF for a brief period of prevailing winds of 31020G40kts from 0130-0205Z behind thunderstorm outflow that has persisted longer than initially expected as thunderstorms have also persisted over far northeast Colorado into extreme southwest Nebraska. VFR conditions will persist as the prevailing condition at MCK and GLD through the 00Z TAF period. Thunderstorms moving in from the west over far eastern Colorado have thrown out an outflow boundary ahead of the storms. Storms are expected to dissipate as they move into far western Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. Other than an increase in mid and high level clouds as remnants of the storms move across the area, it remains uncertain if the outflow will remain intact as it continues east of the dissipating storms and may not impact the GLD site. If the outflow does remain intact, it should arrive at GLD around 0130Z requiring an update to the TAF. MCK being further to the east, is not currently expected to be affected by thunderstorm outflow this evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Key Details: * An excessive heat warning is in effect for portions of central and all of south-central and southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT this evening. See latest product for more details. * An excessive heat warning is in effect for portions of south- central and southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT Friday evening. * Showers and storms will be possible for most of our CWA tonight. * Saturday looks to be cooler behind a front with drier air keeping heat indices down. A weak shortwave impulse is expected to move across northern Kansas today and this evening, which should assist in the southward movement of a weak frontal boundary over central Kansas. The Mesoscale models have backed off some on storms forming along the boundary, but thinking is that we will see scattered storms form over central Kansas this afternoon and evening before progressing south and eastward along the front boundary. The NAM, RAP, and HRRR are all in pretty good agreement that effective shear will be lower today (below 20kts) than yesterday (30 to 40kts) with less directional shear expected as well so at this time organized convection is not expected. Instead the may concern will be pulse up storms that quickly pulse back down. These can be tricky due to the outflow and winds that are produced when the storms collapsed. Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) will be more than sufficient for severe downbursts so a few 60 mph wind reports would not be surprising. The hail threat looks pretty low with subsevere hail up to nickel size expected. Can completely rule out severe hail up to ping pong size if a storm becomes rooted along the boundary where directional shear may be enhanced. Friday still looks to be humid so we may hold on to some high heat indices, especially in south-central and southeast Kansas. We dry out Saturday which will allow heat indices to fall below 100 across the area. Ridging begins to build back in late Saturday and we will see highs return to the upper 90s and low 100s on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Upper ridging is expected to continue Monday with a shortwave moving over the Northern Plains during the day Monday. This will break down the ridge once more while sending down another cold front through the Plains. There`s still some uncertainty on the exact pattern, but the global ensembles are in general agreement of retrograding the upper ridge westward, which could put our area in a prolonged period of northwest flow and storms. Where the ridge sets up will have drastic differences in what type of weather we see. A ridge further east will keep up hot and dry, while a ridge further west would keep us cooler and wet. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Rather benign weather pattern for all sites over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail at all locations. However, one item we will need to keep and eye on will be at SLN and RSL. A couple of models are hinting at MVFR cigs after midnight towards 12z. For now, I will opt to keep those out of the taf and see what the next run brings. I have also kept VCTS out of the tafs. The best instability and shear lies to the north of all of our taf sites. FROPA will prevail during this taf cycle, however, speeds should behave under 15kts at all locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 74 95 71 92 / 30 10 10 0 Hutchinson 72 93 70 92 / 30 10 0 0 Newton 74 92 70 90 / 30 10 0 0 ElDorado 74 91 70 88 / 30 10 10 0 Winfield-KWLD 76 94 72 91 / 20 10 10 10 Russell 70 92 68 92 / 20 10 10 0 Great Bend 71 92 69 93 / 20 0 10 0 Salina 72 92 70 90 / 20 10 0 0 McPherson 71 92 70 90 / 30 10 0 0 Coffeyville 78 97 73 92 / 30 10 10 10 Chanute 78 93 72 89 / 30 10 10 10 Iola 76 92 71 88 / 30 10 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 78 96 73 91 / 30 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052- 053-067>072-082-083-091. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ092>096- 098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRW LONG TERM...CRW AVIATION...CWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
823 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact parts of central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning. While not everyone will see significant rainfall, it appears locations along and southwest of a Macomb to Taylorville line may pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain. After that, cooler and drier conditions will be on tap for the upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 A bit of a tricky forecast on tap for this evening. While there remains some uncertainty on the track of storms overnight, there is growing consensus from the last several runs of the HRRR as well as other CAMs that the track of storms tonight will take a similar path to the heaviest rain from earlier today, roughly a Quincy to Springfield to Terre Haute line. A widespread swath of 1 to 2 inches fell in this corridor earlier today with some localized pockets of rainfall in excess of 2 inches. We should begin to get a better sense of the exact path of tonight`s storms as they begin to develop over the next 2-3 hours in response to a modest LLJ developing over portions of central and northern MO. Storms should begin to move into the central Illinois forecast area around or after midnight tonight. Latest flash flood guidance from the RFCs shows roughly 1.5-2.0 inch one hour rainfall rates and 2.0-2.5 inch three hour rainfall rates could produce flash flooding, with some locally lower amounts most notably near the I-70 corridor. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Convective complex that rolled across much of central Illinois earlier today is currently exiting the far eastern KILX CWA into Indiana. Meanwhile scattered showers have developed over northern Missouri/southern Iowa and are spilling into the Illinois River Valley. All the precipitation is developing north of a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending from central Missouri into far southern Illinois. The front has been pushed slightly further south due to outflow from the previous storm complex: however, it remains close enough to significantly impact the weather across central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning. A 30-40kt 850mb jet is progged to develop from the Southern Plains into Missouri late tonight, which will interact with the boundary to bring another round of thunderstorms to the region. Models still show a good deal of variability: however, any convection will likely follow nearly the same path of the previous storm complex (if not a bit further south). HRRR has been honing in on this solution all afternoon...with cells developing across northern Missouri late this evening, then tracking east-southeastward into the CWA late. Based on position of boundary and consistent signal from the HRRR, think the heaviest rainfall will develop along/south of a Mattoon line. With NAM precipitable water values peaking between 2.50 and 2.75, the storms will be efficient rain- producers and will therefore pose a flash-flooding risk. Given recent heavy rainfall leading to wet soil conditions across part of this area, have decided to issue a Flood Watch along and southwest of a Macomb to Taylorville line from midnight tonight through 15z/10am Friday. Further north, showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous and will not pose such a high threat for heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning, then will shift E/SE into the Ohio River Valley toward midday. Synoptic subsidence in the wake of the morning storm complex will lead to a mostly dry afternoon...although a few stray showers cannot be ruled out. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 As upper ridging builds over the Rockies and High Plains, increasing northwesterly flow will be noted downstream across the Midwest Friday into Saturday. This will push a cold front well south of Illinois and bring a significant airmass change to the area. As a result, high temperatures will drop into the lower 80s for both Saturday and Sunday with low relative humidity levels. After that, the upper ridge will remain locked in place over the Rockies through the remainder of the extended. Another weak cold front will drop through Illinois in the prevailing northwesterly flow pattern late Monday into Tuesday: however, it will have little moisture to work with. Have therefore only carried slight chance PoPs with FROPA at this time. After a brief warm-up to around 90 degrees ahead of the front on Monday, readings will drop back into the middle 80s for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible through the period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage late this evening across portions of northern MO then congeal and spread east across portions of central IL overnight. For now the I-72 corridor is roughly the northern end of the expected track of storms, but couldn`t rule out storms staying south of all the terminals. Scattered storms are expected to redevelop during the day Friday. Meanwhile, MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop late tonight and persist into the afternoon Friday. Winds will generally by light overnight, out of the southeast or variable, then a northeast breeze will develop mid afternoon Friday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from midnight CDT tonight through Friday morning for ILZ036-040-041-047>052. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1053 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 The focus in the short-term remains on multiple potential or ongoing hazards, ranging from excessive heat to the possible strong/severe storms and flash flooding tonight. Starting with the heat, the combination of thicker debris clouds and outflow associated with upstream convection helped limit temperatures. Therefore, heat index values for portions of central and east-central Missouri today as well as southwest Illinois stayed well-below warning criteria so have canceled these counties early. Further south, the warning was extended through Friday due to another day with likely peak heat index values around 105F. This isn`t a sure thing however and is conditional on how convection evolves late tonight and into Friday morning. As we saw both today and yesterday, a thunderstorm complex can have a big impact on keeping temperatures down, even in areas further southeast where they don`t even make it. Cloud debris and outflow early Friday could prevent these counties from hitting criteria. Convection development is likely to begin late this evening toward the midnight hour as a surface wave of low pressure transverses the quasi-stationary boundary. Earlier runs of the HRRR was showing at least some isolated strong/severe cells in central and eastern Missouri near the surface boundary. However, do not believe this scenario is particularly likely given subsidence behind prior MCS and lack of support in other CAMs. Widespread storms are expected overnight tonight along/just north of the track of the surface wave of low pressure. This puts northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois again as the likeliest areas to see widespread rainfall. Given pockets of 2-3+ inches of rain in parts of northeast Missouri, precipitable water values well over 2.00" (above 99th percentile), and deep warm cloud depths (~14 kft), flash flooding is a concern. Therefore, have issued a watch for these areas from midnight tonight through early Friday morning. Regarding the potential for strong/severe convection, cannot rule out an isolated strong/severe storm early this evening like earlier HRRR runs showed. Given lack of mid/upper air support however alluded to above/subsidence behind the preceding MCS, do not think this is a likely scenario. Regarding storms late tonight, instability available is still a question mark due to the earlier storms in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. Cannot rule out some marginally severe hail or damaging wind gusts in any organized cluster of storms, but current thinking is that the threat will be isolated/unorganized in nature if any severe weather occurs at all. By early Friday morning, the trailing cold front is likely to be nearly bisecting the CWA. CAMs show steady weakening and eventual dissipation of storms overnight into Friday morning. This largely makes sense given lessening diurnal instability and some mid/upper level subsidence behind the departing shortwave trough. However, would not be surprised to see at least isolated/widely scattered showers/weak thunderstorms percolate as the low-level jet veers more to the west. CAMs have been a bit too fast with the dissipation of nocturnal convection the past couple of days, so made sure to have at least some low PoPs through the morning. Thunderstorms are expected to either re-develop or strengthen by mid afternoon along the cold front before quickly exiting the CWA to the south and east. Based on this timing, the better chance of a few strong/severe storms Friday afternoon is also to our south and east. Some showers/weak thunderstorms are possible behind the front as well, but should quickly weaken and dissipate during the evening hours with loss of instability. The rest of Friday night should be dry, with gradually cooler and drier (lower humidity) conditions advecting in from the north. Low temperatures are forecast to drop back into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees which would be right around normal for early/mid July. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 (Saturday - Sunday Night) A short period of below normal temperatures along with lower humidity. Dewpoints initially Saturday may still be on the touch high side, but should decrease throughout the day as persistent low- level northeasterly flow continues to advect in drier and drier air into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs on Saturday and Sunday are likely to be mostly in the low to mid 80s. Saturday should be a touch cooler than Sunday, but dewpoints should be lower on Sunday compared to Saturday so both days should feel relatively comfortable for this time of year. Saturday night/Sunday morning is expected to be the coolest of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Like the high temperatures, these also would be slightly below normal for the date. (Monday - Next Thursday) A quick (and short!) moderation in temperatures is forecast on Monday as strong mid/upper level anticyclone to our west strengthens and expands a bit eastward. The low-level flow becomes southerly, not only helping to increase temperatures but also humidity levels. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast with peak heat index values of around 100 degrees. At this moment in time, this appears to be more "typical" summertime hot/humid conditions and should stay below advisory (105F+) criteria. Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong trough of varying degree crossing the Great Lakes early/mid next week. This will bring a cold front through the region Monday night into early Tuesday. This front will bring a low chance of thunderstorms to the region. Behind the front, a prolonged period of dry weather is expected with low humidity and at least near normal temperatures. Differences remain between the stronger trough most EPS members suggest vs. the GEFS which is not as strong with the Great Lakes trough. Given a broad agreement with the EPS from the CMCE, my guess is that the cooler solutions are more likely so leaned slightly below normal for temperatures for the middle of next week. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2022 Overnight thunderstorms are beginning to develop and move into northwest Missouri, and will almost certainly impact UIN between the start of the 06Z TAF period and early Friday morning. These thunderstorms are likely to produce lightning and heavy rain, with strong and erratic wind gusts also possible at times. Less certainty exists at the central Missouri and St. Louis area terminals, although all may see at least some shower/thunderstorm activity overnight through mid morning...including STL. These terminals are more likely to receive a glancing blow from these storms, but perhaps still enough for visibility and ceiling reductions at times. A confidence is low along the I-70 corridor. A lull in activity is expected with a return to VFR conditions in most areas during the late morning and early afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may impact UIN and the St. Louis area terminals during the mid to late afternoon, although confidence is low and the most robust afternoon activity is likely to occur southeast of St. Louis. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Friday for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO- Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for Crawford MO- Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Friday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for Randolph IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A wavering front allows shower and storm chances to continue through the weekend. Activity will generally be hit or miss today with an uptick expected Friday and Saturday as additional waves of energy move through. By Sunday, a cold front looks to push through the region with drier and less humid air by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Thursday... Storm coverage this afternoon has been much more isolated, compared to yesterday afternoon. However, still a very moist and unstable airmass in place and a few storms have been on the stronger side. Should expect to continue to see activity wane through the overnight hours with a few spotty areas of rain, mainly in the Piedmont, lingering into early Friday. Areas of fog also appears to be more likely tonight with lesser cloud cover. As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... More scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening with a focus across VA/NC Piedmont region. Another round Friday.. It`s a rinse and repeat type of forecast with little change to the overall "ring of fire" weather pattern. Broad upper level ridging remains over the mid-Mississippi River Valley with pieces of shortwave energy diving south through the ohio River Valley and down into the Carolinas on west/northwest flow. Meanwhile, at the surface a stationary boundary continues to oscillate across our region acting as an additional trigger for storms during the afternoon and evening periods. Our quiet conditions of this morning have now given way to a scattering of convection that continues to feed off of the sultry environment. Temperatures have climbed fast with many areas east of mountains getting back into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. You combine this with dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s to get heat index numbers close to 100 degrees. With the increased heat and ample low level moisture, surface based CAPE values look to push toward the 1500-2500 j/kg range. These values will be at their highest across the VA/NC line and across the Piedmont where better heating will take place. As for shear, 0-6km values sit between 20-30 kts yielding the predominant threat of damaging winds with any storms that form. Localized runoff issues and flooding cannot be ruled out as well with precipitable water values on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Models continue to struggle with overall timing on storms today with most solutions actually showing a bit of a lull in the action. Each model has varying solutions with the 17z HRRR/RAP showing smattering of convection while the 12z NAMnest and RAP have a bit more organization across the southern Shenandoah Valley as well as in areas along the VA/NC line. Once again it will be another feast or famine type of day with some locations getting heavy rain and others getting nothing at all. For now opted with a blend of the hi-res guidance similar to the previous shift with a focus across the western North Carolina mountains east into the Piedmont. The same can be said, for a secondary area of storms that is likely to develop across the Alleghanys and southern Shenandoah Valley east into central Virginia. Confidence is a bit higher in these areas for storm development based upon a better surface and upper level reflection pushing out of the midwest/Ohio River Valley this afternoon and evening according to the models. This would follow a similar trend to the last few days with convection split to the north and south of the area along with a smattering of activity in between. Storm activity gradually weakens and diminishes this evening with the loss of any daytime heating. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out though through the overnight with the front meandering nearby and another incumbent piece of shortwave energy pushing in from the Ohio River Valley. Patchy fog is also possible especially in areas that do see the rain due in part to our sauna-like airmass that remains in place. Overnight low look to fall back into the mid to upper 60s over the mountains to low to mid 70s out east. More storms are likely Friday as another wave of shortwave energy pushes through. Once again the risk for severe weather remains with damaging winds and localized flooding as the main threats. The highest threat for organized severe weather appears to be to our west with scattered multicellular clusters across our region. Highs will range from the low 80s over the mountains to low 90s out east. Forecast confidence is low on coverage for storms today and impact on high temperatures, but moderate that some locations will likely see strong to severe storms once again, with heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM EDT Thursday... Confidence remains high for more showers and thunderstorms throughout the upcoming weekend. The Mid Atlantic will remain embedded within an upper level trough during the upcoming weekend. A cold front should slowly move southeastward from the Ohio River Valley during Friday night into Saturday and reach the Appalachian Mountains by Saturday afternoon. As a result, the heat and moisture combined with increasing synoptic lift will yield more chances of showers and thunderstorms. Although lingering convection from Friday will spill into Friday night before dissipating, the greatest risk of strong storms in this forecast period appears to be Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Damaging winds would be the primary threat if anything becomes severe. Temperatures should trend lower by Sunday, but chances of showers and thunderstorms could remain during Sunday afternoon. Drier and cooler air should arrive by Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Thursday... Confidence is increasing for drier weather by Monday, but more showers and thunderstorms may return later in the week. With the cold front finally south of the Mid Atlantic to allow high pressure to pass overhead on Monday, the active weather pattern from the past week should subside. Although lingering moisture could spark a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in northwest North Carolina by Monday afternoon, most locations will remain dry. Quiet conditions should persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, but another cold front will approach the Ohio River Valley by Tuesday afternoon as the heat and humidity increases. Chances of convection should rise again during late Tuesday into Wednesday as the cold front arrives. Eventually, this front will reach the East Coast toward Thursday as storm chances begin to decrease. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Thursday... Storm activity continues to diminish this evening and an isolated shower or storm chance remains possible overnight with the front nearby. Patchy fog and low clouds also cannot be ruled out since the airmass has yet to change. Any fog will be dependent upon how much clearing we see and to if mid and high level clouds from convection upstream pushes in. For now made a mention of MVFR fog at the majority of the TAF sites with a higher likelihood of IFR-LIFR vsbys/cigs across Greenbrier Valley. Any fog and low clouds look to lift after 12z Friday morning giving way to BKN-OVC skies. Once again showers and storms will be on the rise for the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period outside any showers or storms that may form. Extended Aviation Discussion... Our pattern of daily chances of showers and storms will continue through at least Saturday, with decreasing chances and coverage on Sunday. By Monday, high pressure will finally push in bringing drier air and less humidity. Showers and storms return by the middle of next week. For the most part, daytime conditions will yield VFR conditions outside the heavier showers and storms. During the overnights, areas of temporary sub-VFR ceilings and patchy fog area possible, with improving conditions during the morning. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 900 AM EDT Wednesday... The Roanoke NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards WXL60 transmitter is operating in low power mode during antenna maintenance. Repairs are expected to be completed late Sunday afternoon, July 10. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ET/WP NEAR TERM...BMG/ET SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG/ET EQUIPMENT...DS