Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
938 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
A stationary boundary will settle south across the Ohio Valley
today and linger there into Thursday. A cold front moves south
across the area Thursday night into Friday. High pressure builds
south across the Great Lakes region through the rest of the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers have exited south of the area, resulting in a generally
dry forecast the rest of tonight into Thursday morning.
A stationary front currently resides over central Ohio, with some
showers and perhaps an embedded, isolated thunderstorm in the
vicinity of this front. A report of a funnel cloud was received
near Orville in Wayne County with these showers, likely from
non-mesocyclonic processes. RAP mesoanalysis doesn`t suggest
favorable conditions for landspout tornadoes but perhaps a
funnel cloud or two more could be possible with these afternoon
showers due to the surface vorticity associated with the front
and marginal 0-3km MLCAPE.
The stationary front makes slow southward progress this
afternoon/evening, residing over the lower Ohio Valley by
tonight and through the remainder of the near term period. In
the wake of the frontal passage, generally quiet weather is
expected with partly sunny skies and temperatures near normal on
By Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the north
located in southern Michigan/Ontario by Thursday night. Right
entrance region of a 80-90 kts 300mb jet streak and 500mb height
falls of 10-20m/hr suggest marginal synoptic lift for ascent
ahead of the advancing cold front. Hi-res model guidance
suggests rain showers approaching from the west, perhaps in the
vicinity of the I-75 corridor around 09Z Friday.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build over the Great Lakes in the short term
period and will mark a cooler period of weather. Northwest flow
aloft continues with weak trough axes working through, but column
likely too dry for any precipitation in the short term period.
Surface high slowly drifts to the southeast through the period and
will be centered over Lake Ontario by the end of the short term.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday largely on the cooler side form the
mid 70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues the southeastward drift, eventually reaching
the Long Island area allowing for return flow to commence. Brief
warm sector period returns to the area, but no overly hot and humid
weather to speak of despite temperature increases. Low pressure
organizes over Ontario/Quebec early next week with a cold front
slated in the Monday night/Tuesday type time frame.
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Generally VFR across the TAF sites this evening with just a few
isolated pockets of lingering MVFR ceilings across TOL that will
diminish over the next hour. Otherwise, VFR is expected through
the TAF period with the only exception of some brief pockets of
MVFR br possible at MFD tonight.
North to northeast winds will be generally light through the
TAF period, less than 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night through Friday afternoon.
Conditions on Lake Erie will be less than perfect with the
stationary front just south of the lake continuing a slight drift
further southward into the end of the week. This keeps NE winds
predominant through the end of the week with some wave action to be
expected. A secondary cold front turns the flow more northerly for a
brief period Friday night, and returning northeasterly Saturday
through Sunday. High pressure responsible for the northerly winds
behind the front finally turn to a southerly component Monday next
week. Wave heights 1-3ft turning 2-4ft behind the cold front Friday
night into the weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Main forecast concerns are rain and thunderstorm chances over the
next 12-24 hours, then temperatures in the extended.
Summary: Expect another 12 to 18 hours of active weather with
isolated severe weather and heavy rain possible this evening and
overnight before the pattern calms down for the end of the week.
After a few day break from dangerously high heat and humidity
Thursday and Friday, temperatures warm back up over the weekend
with perhaps another round of heat indices in the 100 to 105 range
on Sunday. Fortunately, this looks to be brief, though, as
temperatures cool back closer to normal for early next week.
Hopefully areas that have needed rain have gotten it over the past
couple of days or will get it tonight, because a much drier
pattern is forecast for the end of this week through much of next
Forecast Details: Most of the impactful weather for this forecast
looks to occur within the first 12 to 18 hrs or so, as at least
scattered convection with iso severe and heavy rain appear fairly
likely if not this evening, then overnight. Similar to 24 hrs ago,
exact evolution is uncertain owing to weak forcing features,
plentiful moisture amidst weakening inhibition, and somewhat poor
model continuity amongst the hi-res guidance. With that said, feel
fairly confident that primary iso severe threat will be S/SW of
the Tri Cities and mainly between about 5pm and sunset with
activity developing in the more hot/humid air in central KS then
moving E/NE. Already seeing some iso storms develop near the
intersection of a southward sinking front and weak trough/dryline
near HYS. Deep layer shear vectors are pointing NE, with
magnitudes likely enhanced by backed low level flow to the N of
the front, suggesting some potential for this to move into Rooks
and/or Osborne Counties over the next few hrs. However, with the
primary front sinking S of I-70 and Bunkers RM vectors pointed E,
could also envision this activity sliding S of the CWA altogether.
If that`s the case, could certainly be a fairly quiet eve locally
as the rest of the activity further N is weaker and more elevated.
This is not too different from recent HRRR runs.
Later tonight, incr low level jet and arrival of weak perturbation
from the SW (currently seen in satellite data over SW KS and TX/OK
Panhandles) should lead to uptick in convective coverage after
dark, likely towards midnight. MUCAPE is not overly impressive
(generally around 1-2K J/kg), and effective shear remains weak
(15-25kt)...so think overnight severe would be very iso and
pulsey, at best. The greater threat overnight would likely be
hydro as PWAT values incr to around 2 inches (or more) per 12Z
HREF and last several runs of the RAP. Also, H85-H3 mean vectors
of only 15-20kt (locally lower) oriented largely parallel to
upwind propagation vectors suggest relatively slow storm movement
and potential for training cells/lines of convection. 12Z HREF
guidance appears suspiciously far N given location of nose of LLJ
and primary sfc front...and tend to agree more with recent HRRR
runs of max QPF zone a bit further S, probably along or S of I-80,
and perhaps even closer to Hwy 6 or state line. Would not at all
be surprised to see QPF amounts of 2-4" within a fairly wide
swath of south central Nebraska...and portions of the area have
seen some fairly heavy rain over past few days. Toiled with the
idea of a flood watch for tonight, but with current uncertainty
in location, would rather not broad brush the whole area with a
watch and instead let eve shift get a look at more hi-res runs
and be more selective. Hvy rn continues to be mentioned in HWO.
Main changes for Thu and Fri have been to lower pcpn chcs, esp Thu
night into Fri. Still have some 20-40 PoPs during the day on Thu,
and think best chcs will be from around the Tri Cities to the N
and E where SREF/HREF probs are highest. 18Z HRRR also hints at
this. KS zones may not see much. High look to range from low 80s
N, to low 90s further S where they may see more breaks in clds.
Fri-Fri night are now dry in the forecast. Highs will be near or
just below normal in the mid 80s to low 90s, but it`ll still feel
a bit muggy given Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s despite NE wind.
Models still indicate a warming trend into the weekend, likely
peaking on Sun with highs well into 90s, and possibly even triple
digits in the S/SW. Heat indices may approach 105F and require a
heat advisory. The real hot weather is brief, though, and highs
should fall back into the 80s and 90s for early next week. There`s
really not much to hang one`s hat on for precip in the extended,
so hopefully those that still need rain get some tonight/Thu.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
There are several aviation concerns over the next 24 hours. First
will be the chance for thunderstorm development mainly after
midnight with scattered thunderstorms then around the area through
perhaps mid morning. We also expect falling ceilings after
midnight with at least periods of IFR and possibly even LIFR
ceilings between 3 AM and mid to late morning. Ceilings should
begin to rise by late Thursday morning, but still expecting MVFR
ceilings through much of Thursday afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
542 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Convection started firing just before noon today over the higher
terrain of eastern Utah and western Colorado which initialized
very well with both the NAMNEST and HRRR models. Plenty of heating
and instability aloft, along with monsoonal moisture, will keep
this convection going through the evening hours. Similar threats
as we saw yesterday include some gusty winds, hail, heavy rain and
some lightning. Some of the stronger cells may reach severe
category. In fact, radar already highlighted a stronger storm near
Naturita, CO possibly having one inch hail which is in the severe
category. Convection will die down later this evening as heating
ends though a few lingering showers may persist through midnight
but the big news will be the height rises indicating high pressure
Models have been fairly consistent with the area of high pressure to
our east building into our region tonight and moving overhead over
the coming days. By Thursday morning, deterministic models show
PWATs for the southern third of the CWA back to near normal while
remaining around 150% of normal for the northern two-thirds. Might
be a bit too quick to drop to near normal values as far as moisture
is concerned but the idea that afternoon convection will occur,
albeit with considerably less coverage, looks about right. The NBM
is highlighting the Continental Divide for the best chances for
convection and the forecast follows suit. As we head into a drier
environment, gusty outflow winds become more of a concern along
with some hail, as midlevels dry out, along with some lightning.
As is the norm for this time of year, convection will initially
fire over the higher terrain before moving to the east- northeast.
High temperatures will be similar to what we saw yesterday. This
changes heading into the weekend though.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Model runs are still standing by an extended period of high pressure
building across the Great Basin this weekend. Numerical guidance is
bullish on 3 to 4 days of triple digits in the low valleys of
eastern Utah and western Colorado beginning Friday/Saturday. GFS
model 500 mb height anomalies are hinting at a warm and dry pattern
to continue through next week. Exceptions to this warm and dry
pattern linger over the higher peaks this weekend, where afternoon
showers and convection remain a possibility thanks to orographic
flow and residual monsoon moisture. Presently, it looks like this
will be confined to the San Juans and central Mountains. Models hint
at a glancing clipper wave to drop out of Canada into the Great
Lakes on Monday afternoon and chip away at the weekend bubble of
high pressure. Consequently, numerical guidance reflects a modest
dip of temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. However, looking at
hemispheric models, it appears that a blocking omega pattern wants
to set up over the Rockies and lock in high pressure through the
remainder of next week across the Great Basin. The EC model even has
a brief incursion of monsoonal moisture next Thursday.
Climatologically speaking, July will see an uptick in monsoonal
activity from June. These solutions are far enough on the horizon to
warrant caution, but after a lengthy wet monsoonal period, will be
cause for adjusting our focus from hydrology back to critical fire
weather conditions if they materialize. In the meantime, keep
sunscreen handy and don`t forget to pack a rain jacket for the
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Shower and thunderstorm activity will carry on for the next
several hours. Ceilings may drop below MVFR under passing storms,
with the concern of gusty outflow winds up to 40kts, lightning,
and brief heavy rain still possible. Thunderstorms with frequent
lightning and heavy rain will weaken into light showers, generally
after 03Z. CIGS may linger below ILS breakpoints under decaying
storms, though, do anticipate improving conditions overnight.
Diurnally driven convection will redevelop over high terrain by
noon on Thursday. However, coverage of storms drifting off higher
terrain looks to take a downturn. Thus, mountain TAF sites have
the highest probability of seeing any impacts from afternoon
convection, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere outside of
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ008-010-013.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1027 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Strong thunderstorms that formed along moisture convergence
boundary earlier today that extended from northern Georgia to
near the Tennessee River, has dissipated at this time. A few
lingering light to moderate showers over northeastern Alabama are
all that is left of precipitation in northern Alabama and our
southern middle Tennessee counties.
RAP and NAM12 forecast another convergence boundary somewhere in
southern Kentucky or northern Tennessee to slowly move south
tonight and approach our southern middle Tennessee counties
around and after midnight. Not very confident there will be enough
lift or elevated instability even if it does to produce much
shower or thunderstorm activity. However, given that several
models are progging this scenario, put in 20 pop for our Tennessee
counties around midnight. Extended this 20 pop southwest into NW
Alabama, as this boundary drops southeastward towards daybreak.
Given the heavy rainfall near and south of the Tennessee River
earlier today coupled with a few days of off an on heavier
rainfall in many of those areas over the past 4 or 5 days,
introduced a bit more patch fog into the forecast. Mainly expect
this to occur from NW Cullman County westward into Lawrence/Franklin
counties and into the Paint Rock Valley. Wouldn`t be surprised to
see more widespread fog in those areas, but leaving dense fog out
Most guidance shows low level advection from the WSW or W
overnight. Given dewpoint values upstream and a possible moisture
convergence boundary moving into the area near/north of the
Tennessee River, expect temperatures to only drop into the 73 to
77 degree range in most locations, despite fairly clear skies.
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Will see little change in conditions through the end of the work
week as the aforementioned high and upper level ridge remains
anchored aloft. Have continued to go above blended guidance for
high temperatures, with some areas west of I-65 reaching up to 100
degrees through Friday. This will keep afternoon heat indices in
the 105-110 degree range, keeping dangerous outdoor conditions in
place. In addition to the heat, chances for scattered
thunderstorms will continue each day as Gulf moisture provides
fuel for pulse convection. SPC has placed portions of northeast AL
and southern middle TN in a Slight Risk for Thursday, primarily
due to SBCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Gusty to damaging winds
will be the primary concern, but any storms that do from will be
capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and
small hail. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Overnight lows on Friday will be in the mid to upper 70s as flow
becomes more westerly as upper troughing begins to dig south over
the eastern CONUS. By Saturday morning, a cold front will be
moving south across the OH River basin, and will see thunderstorm
coverage increasing to our north ahead of and along the front.
Have kept likely PoPs in Saturday afternoon and evening as this
activity continues to track south into the area. Did not extend
the Heat Advisory due to uncertainty on the arrival time of this
activity and whether or not that will limit temperatures by the
afternoon. With that said, a Heat Advisory may be needed if storms
hold off until late in the afternoon and highs in the mid 90s are
The front will move through the area by Sunday morning, bringing
some temporary relief from the heat and humidity toward the
beginning of next week. Highs will drop into the upper 80s/lower
90s through Monday, and dewpoints will be in the lower 70s. A few
showers/storms will be possible both Sunday and Monday, mainly
over northeast AL where better moisture and convergent flow aloft
exists. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s. After
Monday, the pattern looks to shift back to hot and humid, so we
will enjoy the temporary relief while it lasts!
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Light winds are expected overnight, however, fog is not expected
to occur at either terminal. A PROB30 group was included from 15Z
to 18Z for possible -TSRA activity near the terminals. MVFR
conditions or lower could occur if activity directly impact either
terminal. A better chance of TSRA is expected from 18Z to 22Z, as
a boundary moves across the area. A tempo group for that period,
when again VSBYS or CIGS could become MVFR or lower. VFR
conditions should return after 08/00Z.
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ003-004-007>010-016.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001-002-005-
TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ097.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
*A heat advisory is in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening for
portions of central and south-central Kansas while an excessive heat
warning is in effect for southeast Kansas until 8 PM CDT this
evening. See product for latest details.
*An excessive heat warning is in effect from 8 PM CDT this evening
until 8 PM CDT Thursday evening for portions of south-central ans
southeast Kansas. See product for latest details.
*Marginally severe storms will be possible today across north-
central Kansas and again tomorrow across central, south-central, and
A temporary break in riding will lead to a slow moving cold front to
move southward over north-central Kansas this afternoon. Ahead of
this front we will see highs in the upper 90s and low 100s. This
include our entire forecast area. The front is expected to reach
near or just north of the I-70 corridor this evening and will become
the focus of storms. At this time the severe threat appears to be
marginal. The GFS and NAM have good directional shear, but speed
shear leaves much to be desired with only 25 to 35kt of effective
shear. This would lead to mostly multi-cell storms with maybe a
severe report of quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds from
downbursts. The RAP and HRRR are a little more impressive with 35-
40kt of effective shear and 40kt of 0-3km shear, which would support
more organized convection with the potential for significant hail of
2+ inches and 60 mph winds.
Thursday has a similar setup further south over central, south-
central, and southeast Kansas. Marginal shear should lead to mainly
multi-cell storms with perhaps quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds
possible. Highs ahead of the front will be in the upper 90s and low
100s with heat indices of 105+ expected for south-central and
southeast Kansas. The front should be through most of the CWA by
Friday with highs generally in the low to mid 90s north of the
front. South of the front highs will be in the upper 90s for far
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Upper riding will build back in this weekend and bring another short
lived heat wave with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s Sunday
into Monday. By late Monday the ridge begins to retrograde westward
putting us under northwest flow. The global ensembles are in pretty
good agreement on the westward movement of the ridge, the
deterministic GFS is hinting towards a piece of energy moving
southeastward over Kansas, which would hint towards a possible MCS.
The GFS is currently the only model with that piece of energy so for
now will just keep low PoPs for the late Monday through Wednesday
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Ongoing TRW will affect GBD and RSL the next couple of hours with
GBD dropping into IFR conditons. RSL is on the periphery and cigs
and vsbys should remain in VFR conditions but will need to monitor
closely due to new development. There is a possibility the the
storms will remain intact and move into the SLN vicinity and drop
cigs and vsbys below VFR conditions over the next few hours. HUT
may also have to deal with the TRW and possible MVFR cigs and
vsbys. Once the TRW moves out this evening, all cigs and vsbys
will experience VFR conditions. ICT and CNU should remain VFR
throughout the forecast period..
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 79 100 74 94 / 20 10 40 10
Hutchinson 76 98 72 93 / 30 20 30 10
Newton 77 98 73 92 / 30 20 40 10
ElDorado 77 98 74 92 / 10 10 30 10
Winfield-KWLD 79 101 76 95 / 10 10 30 10
Russell 71 92 69 90 / 50 20 30 10
Great Bend 71 95 70 92 / 40 20 30 0
Salina 76 96 71 91 / 40 20 40 10
McPherson 75 97 71 91 / 30 20 40 10
Coffeyville 78 103 77 99 / 10 0 20 20
Chanute 78 99 76 94 / 10 10 30 20
Iola 78 98 76 93 / 10 10 30 20
Parsons-KPPF 78 101 77 97 / 10 10 20 20
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ070>072-
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ052-053-
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
824 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again tonight, but the
better chance will come tomorrow morning across the region. The
hot and humid conditions will be out of the area tomorrow as
cooler air and continued chances for precipitation will exist
across the region. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe
across the region tonight and tomorrow. Yet another chance for
precipitation comes to the region on Thursday night into early
Friday before the area sees a cooler and drier weekend.
Issued at 821 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Light rain has overspread portions of the Illinois River Valley
while a couple thunderstorms have pushed near and south of
Springfield earlier this evening with an isolated storm currently
near Taylorville. Weak shear and diminishing instability should
keep the strength of any storms in check this evening. Storm
coverage should increase across portions of northern MO late this
evening and overnight in response to strengthening LLJ. These
storms are expected to move into portions of central Illinois
Thursday morning though their exact track remains unsure.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
A complex surface pattern has evolved across the area this
afternoon. While WNW flow aloft exists across the area, a surface
front runs east-west across central IL. Further south, an outflow
boundary exists from this morning`s thunderstorm activity. The 19Z
RAP mesoanalysis shows a strong low level temperature gradient
across the MO/IA border where some elevated thunderstorm activity
is underway. CAMs have TS activity moving into west-central IL
early in the evening, but generally dissipating as it pushes east-
southeast. Still expect an MCS with favorable upper support to
move into east-central IL late tonight. This activity could be
strong to marginally severe. The SPC has the area in a marginal
risk for severe weather for tonight and tomorrow. However,
confidence is low regarding how far east the complex will progress
and likelihood for severe storms through tomorrow morning seems
rather low as well.
Tomorrow afternoon, the morning activity may be lingering in
east-central IL. Behind this activity, CAMs indicate some
isolated surface based activity is possible as well. However, the
better chance will come Thursday night as models are pointing
towards an MCS moving through the Midwest, likely affecting
Today`s Heat Advisory was cancelled in parts of central IL. It
remains in effect for Clay to Lawrence into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
This period will likely start off with an MCS moving east across
the region Thursday night into early Friday morning. Strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible with this system. After
that, the surface front will likely linger in southern IL...with
all of central IL on the cool side experiencing highs in the 80s
under partly sunny skies and with north to northeasterly winds.
The weekend and into early next week looks to continue to be
generally drier and cooler as the area will be under northwest
flow aloft. There may be some chances for light precipitation
during this period, but the details are vague at this point.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022
A decaying cluster of showers and storms may pass over SPI this
evening, but otherwise expect these showers to remain south of the
terminals. Winds will be light overnight but should eventually set
up out of the north/northeast and swing around to a SE direction
early Thursday. As this occurs, couldn`t rule out some low
ceilings and fog but confidence in the details is low at this
time. Meanwhile, additional storms are expected to develop near
Kansas City this evening and track E/ESE across portions of
central Illinois Thursday morning. The best chance for storms is
near SPI/DEC and south but uncertainty remains in the exact track
of these storms. Once this band of storms clears the area late
morning or early afternoon, expect VFR conditions to return
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Current radar imagery shows just some widely scattered pop-up
showers lingering across the area late this evening, with earlier
convection have exited well off to our southeast. Temperatures have
dropped notably this evening in areas that saw precip, ranging from
the mid 70s near the I-75 corridor to the mid 80s west of I-65.
Through the overnight period, expect mostly dry weather with partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will likely remain in the
lower to mid 70s for most. Grids have been updated to reflect recent
observations and trends, updated products will be out shortly.
Issued at 545 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
SVR Thunderstorm Watch 443 has been cancelled early for areas
generally along and north of the Bluegrass and Western KY Parkways
as the effective outflow boundary continues to drop southward into
south-central KY. The watch continues for portions of central KY
into the southern Bluegrass region as a broken line of strong to
severe thunderstorms continues from northern Butler County
northeastward into northern Madison County, KY. However, the
strongest and most organized area of storms is currently pushing
east out of the Bluegrass Region, with a more isolated severe threat
expected as the storms continue to sink southward, gradually
weakening. Main hazard with storms this afternoon and evening has
been locally damaging winds, with numerous reports of trees and
powerlines down across southern IN and north-central/central KY, and
expect this to continue to be the main hazard as the storms push
into southern KY.
Additionally, portions of the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat
Advisory have been cancelled early across southern IN and north-
central/central KY as we have seen notable temperature drops in
these areas behind the line of storms. For example, SDF reached 99
degrees this afternoon and has since dropped to 83 degrees in the
rain cooled air.
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
...Dangerous Heat and Humidity...
...Isolated to Scattered Storms Possible...
Another brutal afternoon of heat with air temperatures in the 90s
and heat index values generally between 105-115. The Ohio County KY
Mesonet station is reporting a heat index of 120 with 100/79 T/Td.
Isolated convection has of course knocked down temps and heat
indices in a handful of locations.
Scattered convection has been ongoing over south-central KY along an
instability gradient, and the gradient was enhanced by morning
outflow/cirrus debris that pushed NW to SE across southern IN and
central KY. However, this convection is disorganized and should not
pose a significant threat for severe weather.
A much stronger linear segment is pushing southeast across far
southeast Indiana and northern KY. These storms are better organized
and could result in an isolated damaging wind threat over the next
few hours in the Bluegrass Region.
Convection is also filling in back to the WSW along the Ohio River.
All of this convection is drifting southeast into an environment
characterized by strong MLCAPE and DCAPE. DCAPE is actually near
1400 J/kg according to the most recent RAP analysis, so there is a
near-term damaging wind threat. Given the upscale growth observed so
far, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for far southern
Indiana and much of north-central Kentucky through 7 PM EDT.
Beyond 7 PM, SCT-BKN convection along this line should continue to
push through portions of south-central KY. Vertical wind shear is
notably weak and weakens even more over southern KY, so storms will
likely tend to weaken with time. However, instability will linger
past sunset given the hot, humid airmass in place.
06-12z early Thursday looks relatively quiet with isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms not out of the question. The
wavy, slow-moving cold front now draped just north of the Ohio River
will continue to drift south with time. Another diurnal uptick is
likely on Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and storms,
especially over central and southern KY. Skies will range from
partly sunny to mostly cloudy on Thursday, and given the
uncertainties with scattered convection, the temperature forecast is
quite tricky. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s look likely, and
a few spots could still push into the upper 90s. Heat indices should
still peak around 100-105 in many areas, and given the extended
period of heat this week, will leave the Heat Advisory intact.
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Expecting another warm night with lows only reaching into the 70s by
Friday morning. A slight chance for a thunderstorm or two is
expected as moisture is seen at all levels with around 1,000 J/kg of
instability. DCAPE is fairly high, but an inversion at the surface
should help limit winds making it to the surface.
Friday - Friday Night
Friday will be the beginning of the end of the higher end heat as a
cold front finally begins moving through the region from the
northwest. After another day in the low 90s and dewpoints in the
70s, the front begins it`s push through the CWA later in the day
into Friday night, making precipitation likely. MLCAPE values of
2,500-4,000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates are supportive of
strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats will be high winds
Saturday - Monday
As the front passes, winds will slowly become more northerly,
lowering the chance for thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off
Saturday as north winds begin lowering dew points. This happens
first across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Southern
Kentucky will see dew points in the low 70s until early Sunday.
Upper ridging along with surface high pressure will make for mostly
clear skies Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the 80s on Sunday
will become 90s on Monday as the surface low to our north moves
east, returning southern winds to the Ohio Valley. Dewpoints in the
60s on Sunday will begin lifting with the moisture rich southern
flow on Monday. Areas of southern Kentucky could see dew points in
the low 70s on Monday.
Tuesday - Wednesday
Another weak cold front approaches the Ohio Valley as an upper
trough takes the place of the aforementioned upper ridge. This front
does little to lower temperatures with near 90 expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday. A slight chance of precipitation will arrive with the
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
Earlier convection has pushed well south and east of the terminals,
with mostly dry weather expected through the overnight period save
for a few stray showers which will be possible. Winds will be light
and variable overnight with speeds at or below 5 kts.
A couple rounds of scattered showers and storms will be possible
again tomorrow, and while confidence remains low on timing and
location, in general expect things to fire off around or after
07/17Z and continue through the afternoon and evening hours. Some of
the storms may be strong to severe, with brief reductions in
visibility, locally gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible in
the stronger storms.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Thursday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
Thursday for KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045>047-053>056-061>067-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022
A cold front will meander over the Mid-Atlantic for the rest of the
week before a second stronger cold front chases it away Saturday.
High pressure will likely return Sunday into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
An extremely moist environment remains into the evening with the
latest 00Z IAD sounding showing a 2.21" precipitable water.
Based on the upper air climatology, this is the highest
precipitable water on record for July 7 (00Z). While the
instability has waned into the evening given the loss of
heating, some residual MUCAPE is noted in the 23Z RAP objective
analysis. The focus for current and future convection is likely
tied to a slew of old outflow boundaries from previous activity.
The mid-evening radar imagery shows one such boundary lighting
up convection from north-central Maryland down toward the DC and
Baltimore metros. Although rainfall amounts have mainly stayed
under an inch in these cores, any training or backbuilding could
afford 1-2 inch hourly rates. Highly efficient heavy rain
processes (high moisture content, high freezing levels, and
tall/skinny CAPE) are in place. As such, Flood Watches for flash
flooding will continue across much of the area until 5 AM
Thursday. The most sensitive locations would be the DC and
Baltimore metros where flash flood guidance values are lower.
Much of the activity will likely feature little lightning given
the warm-topped nature of the convection. Uncertainty still
looms as high-resolution models are struggling to handle the
mesoscale nature of these boundaries.
Temperatures remain near seasonal levels through tonight with
lows in the 70s outside the higher terrain.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue moving
southward on Thursday. The front will start to weaken, with the
moisture remaining in place even behind the front, though
columns are slightly drier than Wednesday. Overall flow remains
weak, though the potential for an isolated severe storm is
certainly possible Thursday into Friday. Attention will be
focused upstream to the northwest for any MCS development that
could track into the local region given sustainable instability.
The other concern is flooding due to repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through the end of the weak. Individual model
guidance continues to differ significantly, though the overall
signal for periods of potentially heavy rain certainly exist.
Will continue to monitor.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions continue into Saturday for at least the
southern half of the area as the shortwave continues to push the
front southward. This will bring a few showers and storms to areas
south of I-66 during the afternoon hours.
High pressure then sets up over the northeast on Saturday night into
Sunday. This will bring an onshore flow into the region with below
normal temperatures and slight chances for a few showers and some
drizzle, along with abundant clouds, especially south of the
(-66 corridor again.
High pressure pushes offshore into Monday and 500mb heights begin to
rise as a brief upper ridge builds overhead leading to quiet
weather. High temperatures remain below seasonal averages.
The next cold front will push through towards the middle of the
week, perhaps on Tuesday, bringing the next chance for unsettled
weather. That pattern looks to continue for several days
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Persistent light NW flow is expected through this evening,
becoming light and variable tonight as a front sags southward.
Additional restrictions are likely (1) in shower and
thunderstorm activity through the late evening, and (2) lower
CIGs/patchy fog overnight into the morning hours.
Similar conditions are expected Thursday into Friday, with a
relatively higher chance of restrictions Thursday night.
Sub-VFR conditions possible at times on Saturday, particularly at
CHO where a front will lead to increased chances for showers and
storms during the afternoon hours.
Residual cloudiness may continue into Sunday as well, mainly at CHO,
as an onshore flow sets up into the region.
Dry conditions return by Sunday night into Monday.
Generally light W/NW flow is expected through the late evening,
becoming variable tonight and somewhat erratic through the end
of the week as a front lingers overhead. Gusty winds, frequent
light, heavy rain and perhaps a waterspout are possible with and
thunderstorms - the likelihood of which will linger much of the
rest of the week.
A few thunderstorms may be possible across the lower portions of the
Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay on Saturday afternoon as a cold
front lingers nearby. Cannot completely rule out the possibility of
an SMW being issued.
Aside from that, high pressure builds in behind the showers and
storms Saturday night. SCA`s may be needed for the open waters for
the later part of the weekend, but otherwise fairly calm conditions
for the long term period for the waters.e waters.
A cold front will sag slowly southward into the Mid-Atlantic
through tonight. Aloft, a strong and somewhat drawn out
shortwave will move along the front in W/NW flow. Although the
exact placement of the front and heaviest rainfall is still
somewhat uncertain, some enhanced convergence along with PWs
rising above 2" should overlap areas with lower FFG resulting
in a risk for flash flooding. Additionally, storm motions may be
slowed some due to weakening low-level flow, and may train
roughly parallel to the surface front.
The most likely time period for flash flooding is this evening
into the overnight as strong ascent accompanies a passing upper
jet streak. Most notably, any region which saw earlier heavy
rainfall would be more primed for flooding issues.
DC...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for DCZ001.
MD...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ001-003>006-008-011-
VA...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ025>031-036>038-
WV...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
MARINE...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ535.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
143 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022
The Electra fire west of the Sierra crest may produce light haze
over the eastern Sierra and western NV this week. Dry conditions
with typical breezes continue each day through Saturday with
temperatures warming to near average, then likely pushing above
average from Sunday through next week. Moisture may return with a
slight possibility of thunder starting next Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM...through Saturday...
Pleasant summer weather will continue into the weekend as the
trough settled off the Pacific coast slowly weakens and lifts out
of the region. Expect plentiful sun, typical afternoon/evening
breezes (gusts 20-30 mph) with high temperatures edging upward to
near average by Thursday and continuing through Saturday (lower
90s for lower elevations/upper 70s-lower 80s Sierra valleys). The
dry air mass will allow for decent cooling each night.
We are keeping an eye on the Electra fire in Amador county (west
slope Sierra SW of Tahoe). The HRRR smoke models indicate
favorable wind trajectories to spread smoke and haze into
Tahoe/Alpine County and parts of far western NV for late
afternoon/evening today and Thursday. However, latest
satellite/web cameras show much less smoke coverage, likely due to
two days of aggressive suppression efforts. Yesterday there
weren`t any significant smoke-related visibility reductions, while
air quality only dropped to moderate across most of Tahoe and
parts of far western NV. Unless we see a significant flare-up this
afternoon, we won`t include the smoke that these models are
forecasting, just a small area of haze. MJD
.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...
A high amplitude ridge developing over the central US is expected
to begin shifting westward this weekend. Ensemble guidance
suggests that an area of high pressure will develop over the Four
Corners region on Sunday; this pattern will drive temperatures
well above average Sunday through midweek. 100+ degree highs are
not out of the equation during this period, especially for the
lower valleys of western NV. Temperatures are expected to peak
Monday, with NBM probabilistic guidance noting a 20% chance of
100+ degrees for Reno, and 50+% chance for communities along Hwy
95. Ensembles are also indicating an uptick in moisture next week,
with the GFS and Euro showing PWATS in the 0.6-0.7 inch range on
Tuesday and Wednesday. As temperatures heat up next week, concerns
for showers and thunderstorms increase given enhanced moisture
across the region. -Whitlam
VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend, with few-sct
cumulus this afternoon and less coverage after today. Typical
afternoon and evening winds will gust 20-25 kts at area terminals.
Smoke activity on the Electra fire west of the Sierra has not been
very widespread or intense as of early this afternoon, which would
reduce the impacts east of the crest. Light haze could produce
minor reductions in slantwise visibility during the overnight and
early morning hours, while mixing and the increased breezes help
disperse the haze each afternoon. MJD
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