Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1018 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Key Messages:
- Severe storms possible this evening
- Turning more seasonable
Today`s Heat:
Most recent surface observations show that temperatures have climbed
well into the 80s across much of the area with portions of far
southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa getting into the low 90s.
Associated heat indices around 105 were observed for these warmer
areas across the southern portions of the forecast area. Relief will
come later this evening as temperatures start decreasing with
overnight low temperatures dipping into the 60s to near 70s.
Evening Storms/Severe Treat:
Besides the heat, the other main concern today is the severe storm
risk this evening. Compared to the 05.12z early morning guidance,
the latest runs of the meso-models have come in better agreement
pinging off of the ongoing convection in South Dakota continuing
this derecho to the southeast with notable bowing segments. If this
complex continued on its current trajectory, then portions of south
central Minnesota and portions of northeast Iowa would be clipped by
this system early this evening. However, if it accelerates then the
arrival time would be earlier. Additionally, some meso-models hint
at convection firing up along a surface boundary ahead of the
convection out west. Surface observational analysis this early
afternoon has a surface boundary stretching from northwest Iowa
through southern Wisconsin. This is also depicted in the satellite
imagery as well. The associated cumulus field has remained fairly
stable and capped this early afternoon. If there is enough low-level
convergence to overcome the what little of a capping inversion is
left by late afternoon, storms would have PLENTY of instability to
work with. The 05.16Z RAP has MUCAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg late
this afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis highlights this area south of
I-90 nearly aligned with the surface boundary with decent effective
bulk shear up to 45 knots. There is an increased threat for heavy
rainfall and potential flooding where there are repeated rounds of
storms over the same location. Cannot rule out some hail with these
potentially pulse like initial storms. As for the derecho, damaging
winds are the main threat, but with any local surge or bowing
segment, cannot rule out a quick spin up/tornado.
As the system approaches from the west, instability begins to wane.
A diminishing trend is noted in the CAM solutions as it exits the
region overnight.
Mid-Week Precipitation:
Wednesday`s precipitation still has plenty of uncertainty associated
with it. Depending on how the daytime/evening precipitation plays
out, some of that could be lingering into Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning. The 05.12Z runs of the RAP and NAM push for a
wetter solution Wednesday night, causing the precip to take longer
to push eastward out of the area or dissipate. But other hi-res
models suggest earlier timing and/or an overall drier forecast.
Overall, still a good amount of uncertainty in how that
precipitation will play out, so have low confidence in the rain`s
timing into Thursday.
Seasonable End to the Week:
Mid-week, an upper-level ridge will start shifting to the east. As
it shifts, the area will settle into a northwest flow pattern,
bringing more seasonable early July temperatures in the low 80s.Late-
week, there are some hints that a shortwave embedded in the
ridge will bring precipitation again to the area. The GFS pushes for
this solution more than the EC, though both do have some hints of
precipitation for Thursday night into Friday. The GFS pushes for a
tad more shortwave energy to be present over the area, and thus has
a stronger signal for precipitation. However, with this still
being a couple days out, there are still wrinkles to iron out that
should become clearer in future model runs. This weekend looks to
be a nice, seasonable one, with dry weather expected Saturday and
temperatures continuing to be in the low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
The stratiform rain on the backside of the bow echo should be
past, or nearly past both sites by 06.06Z. As a result, only plan
to include a short VCSH at KLSE. After that, still looking at
MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings developing overnight for both sites
and persisting for much, if not all of Wednesday. Some improvement
to VFR possible late Wednesday afternoon before the next chance
for rain moves back in later in the evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Line of east/west storms has developed across northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin ahead of the incoming complex from the west.
This activity is training over the same area with the hi-res
models suggesting little overall movement through the middle of
the evening before starting to move off to the south. Atmosphere
is primed to produce heavy rain with these storms and have issued
a flash flood watch for the evening. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches look
to be possible that could lead to rapid water rises along with
urban flooding.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ054-055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dahl/Peters
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
937 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves across Ontario this evening pushing a cold
front slowly south tonight. This boundary will then wobble
across central and northern Ohio through Thursday night before a
stronger low pressure system moving through eastern Canada
pushes a cold front through by Friday with high pressure by the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...
Strong storms continue in a line extending from Findlay to
northern Ashland Co. and points south. The main concern for the
rest of the evening and into the overnight hours is heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. A Flood Advisory is in effect
until 12:15 AM Wednesday for northern Morrow County given the
amount of rain that has already fallen and the additional
rainfall amounts expected. We are continuing to keep our track
upstream convection with hazards of heavy rainfall, localized
flooding, and isolated areas of wind gusts up to 50 mph.
Update...
Convection is currently firing off across northern Indiana,
with a few isolated strong storms across US 30 and points south.
These storms are currently producing a fair amount of lightning
and winds in excess of 40-50 mph. While the environment is less
favorable across much of the CWA, these storms may still impact
much of our western and southwestern counties.
Previous discussion...
We are finally beginning to recover from the extensive morning
MCS debris, with satellite loops showing mostly sunny conditions
quickly breaking out from Michigan through Indiana and northern
Ohio. The MCS cold pool has pushed the outflow boundary well to
the W and SW. This boundary is depicted very clearly on visible
satellite loops from the SW corner of Lake Michigan southeast
to Cincinnati. This boundary will serve as a focus for renewed
convective development later this evening into the overnight as
a 30-35 knot westerly low- level jet increases convergence along
it, aided by a weak mid- level impulse progressing through the
lower Great Lakes in the NW flow aloft and pushing a cold front
south through the lower Great Lakes, northern Ohio, and NW PA.
How far N/NE this outflow boundary can drift late this afternoon
and evening will dictate how far NE the convection will form
and where it will propagate. The low-level jet will support
upscale growth into clusters which will ride SE along the
boundary and associated high CAPE/theta e gradient. The latest
RAP analysis shows a gradient of 4500-5500 J/Kg SBCAPE from
Illinois into southern Indiana west of the boundary with
3500-4500 J/Kg MLCAPE which is strong to extreme instability due
to steep mid-level lapse rates (EML) that have overspread
surface dew points in the mid 70s. To the east of the boundary
across southern Michigan through NW and north central Ohio, CAPE
values are much lower but still moderately unstable. The RAP
suggests that the sunshine and heating this evening will erode
the cold pool and allow the boundary to mix back NE into our
area bringing the high CAPE/theta e gradient with it, but with
how far away it is, I am skeptical of this. This leads to a
fairly low confidence forecast on whether or not our CWA will be
affected by the new convection tonight, but based on the above
reasoning and trends in the HREF CAMS, feel that any severe
storms will be confined to the far SW sliver of our CWA from
Findlay to Marion. After coordination with SPC, the SWODY1 has
been shifted almost entirely out of our area.
In terms of potential impacts tonight, if the convection can reach
our far SW counties, the very favorable thermodynamic environment,
deep layer northwesterly shear of 30-35 knots, and cold pool
generation will lead to forward propagating bowing clusters producing
damaging winds over 60 mph. Isolated large hail is possible too
before the convection grows upscale given the steep mid-level lapse
rates of 7 to 7.5 C/Km and large CAPE. Additionally, training
convection producing swaths of excessive rain totals is possible too
given the boundary laying out parallel to the NW flow aloft and
westerly low-level jet persistently feeding low-level warm/moist
advection into the boundary setting up high convergence. PWATs are
over 2 inches, so it won`t take much to get localized flooding if
training develops. Introduced a sharp gradient in PoPs tonight with
the greatest chances in the far SW. There is a good chance that most
of north central and NE Ohio into PA stays dry tonight. Lows will be
warm and muggy in the upper 60s/low 70s.
For Wednesday, the cold front will settle into central Ohio as a
strong 1022 mb surface high moves to the vicinity of Lake Superior
bringing cooler, drier N to NE flow to the region. This will shift
the instability gradient into the southern half of Ohio, although
the NAM continues to be farther N than the RAP yielding some lower
confidence in how far N showers and thunderstorms will get on
Wednesday. There does not seem to be much in the way of mid/upper
forcing Wednesday, so once the remnant morning showers exit, much of
the day could be dry. Stayed with slight chance to chance PoPs
generally from a TOL to YNG line since at least scattered
showers/storms cannot be ruled out. One interesting feature to watch
could be the MCS currently over South Dakota. The remnants of this
feature could rotate around the broad mid/upper ridge centered over
the MS Valley and ride the instability gradient clipping our
southern counties Wednesday morning. For this reason, the SWODY2
keeps a marginal risk along the US 30 corridor for mainly wind.
Highs Wednesday will be cooler in the low/mid 80s, except upper 80s
closer to US 30. Dew points outside of these southern tier of
counties will also be noticeably lower.
There continues to be somewhat better consensus that a well-defined
shortwave trough will drop SE through the lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night and interact with the quasi-stationary boundary. As
this occurs, a 35-45 knot low-level jet in Illinois should ignite
another MCS that could affect at least the southern half of our CWA
late. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on where the boundary will
be as well as timing of the MCS, so kept PoPs at chance Wednesday
night for showers and storms, but brought chances all the way up to
the lakeshore even though southern areas are more likely to see
rain/thunder. Lows Wednesday night will be slightly cooler in the
mid/upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The region will remain in a west-northwest flow aloft through the
end of the week. The focus area for active weather will be centered
around a nearly stationary frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley.
The main question that remains is where exactly this frontal
boundary will be stalled out and where exactly possible MCS will
ride along the front. We will maintain scattered to likely chances
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. There
could be a couple stronger storms possible along or south of the
boundary Thursday afternoon or evening. We will also be watching for
any isolated flooding concerns with any training of storms over the
same location.
The frontal boundary appears it will drift a little southward on
Friday taking the higher rain chances south of our area. We will
continue to have a chance for scattered showers and storms on Friday
but it may trending slightly drier than previous forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend is looking nicer with high pressure building down across
the Great Lakes into Ohio on Saturday and Sunday. Drier air will
filtered down with lower humidity values this weekend. Temperatures
will be fantastic in the middle 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
Temperatures and humidity will climb back upwards early next week.
The next rain chances will be towards the end of the forecast period
with an upper level trough and cold front moving into the Great
Lakes region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions have returned to all terminals as the cloud deck from
the overnight MCS has slowly exited the region. Convection currently
across northern Indiana this evening is moving eastward into our
region. There are a few isolated storms forming between KFDY and
KMFD. However, these storms are moving into a less favorable
environment as they enter Ohio and will likely only impact
KTOL/KFDY/KMFD. Opted to keep VCTS at these three terminals, and
included TEMPO groups at KFDY and KMFD for best timing of TSRA with
reduced cigs and vis. MVFR ceilings return overnight at all TAF
sites, KTOL may miss out on MVFR ceilings but they cannot be ruled
out. Expect this cloud deck to gradually thin and return to VFR by
Wednesday afternoon.
Winds begin the TAF period westerly at 8-12 knots becoming light and
variable overnight. Northerly to northeasterly winds less than 5
knots persist through Wednesday morning, becoming 10-12 knots by
Wednesday afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered/numerous thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisories will continue into the evening hours for the
nearshore water around Erie PA due to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots
and 2 to 4 feet waves. Winds will become from the north and
northeast 10 to 15 knots behind a departing low this evening. These
north-northeast winds will continue through the end of the week
around 10 to 15 knots with high pressure building by this
weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Iverson
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Griffin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
708 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Due to cooling temperatures, the heat advisory has been cancelled
for the eastern half of the Tri-State area.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue to move across
the area this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Tonight...another batch of monsoonal moisture will move into the
forecast area, in between an upper level high centered over
southeast Oklahoma and low pressure off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest. Precipitable water values rise into the 1.3 to 1.6 inch
range by midnight, decreasing slightly after. With 0-6km winds up to
20kts and following the flow aloft, there could be some training of
cells, otherwise some brief periods of locally heavy rainfall will
be possible. With DCAPE values up to 1600 J/KG, brief, sudden and
potentially damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph or so are possible
through about midnight. Low temperatures are expected to range from
the lower to middle 60s in far eastern Colorado to the middle 60s to
lower 70s east of the CO/KS border.
Wednesday-Wednesday night...the forecast area remains in monsoonal
flow, in between upper level high pressure over the southern states
and low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Specifics
regarding when the next plume or batch of moisture moves in from the
southwest is uncertain during the day so will trend toward typical
pops in the slight chance to low chance range, which could be
optimistic. It does appear that chances may be a bit better during
the night as a possible wave moves in from the southwest. GFS
precipitable water values remain in the 1.3 to 1.6 inch range with 0-
6km winds in the 10 to 20 mph range so once again locally heavy
rainfall and potentially damaging outflow winds look to be the
primary hazards. High temperatures were originally forecast to be in
the upper 80s to around 100 degrees with low temperatures in the
lower to upper 60s. It should be noted the 12z NAM and latest HRRR
bring outflow/mini cold front into the area from a cluster of storms
currently along and north of the Nebraska/South Dakota border. The
outflow will likely bring stratus clouds and a cooler airmass
compared to nearly all other available guidance. If the NAM verifies
the high temperature forecast will need to be lowered considerably.
As a result, have adjusted highs to range from the middle 80s to
upper 90s.
Thursday-Thursday night...it appears that weather disturbances move
into the northern and northwestern parts of the area as well as the
far east/southeast area during the day supporting slight chance to
chance pops across the area. During the night, chance pops will
continue before decreasing from west to east after midnight as the
disturbance moves away. NBM model forecast highs in the middle 80s
to lower 90s are spot on with the better performing guidance models
from the past 7 days. Low temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 50s to upper 60s.
Friday...the upper level ridge center slides to the west over New
Mexico and the Texas panhandle with ridging aloft building. Rainfall
chances decrease compared to previous days with only some slight
chance pops east of the CO/KS border. High temperatures are expected
to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022
The long-term forecast, starting at 0Z Saturday is looking to be
hot, again. We begin this section of the forecast with an
amplifying, upper-level ridge over the Rockies that will start
moving east. This ridge will remain the dominate upper-level
feature until Sunday night. Due to this ridge, a mid-level high
pressure system, and dry lower-level air, precipitation is not
likely until this high pressure begins to move off. High
temperatures over the weekend are expected to be in upper 90s on
Saturday and the triple digits on Sunday. Saturday night also
looks to be pretty warm with low temperatures ranging from the mid
60s to lower 70s. On Sunday, locations east of highway 27 could
see heat indices above 100 while locations to the west may be at
an elevated fire danger risk. West of highway 27, RH values will
be in the teens while winds could gust over 20 mph. Use extra
caution with open flames this upcoming weekend.
Around 0Z Monday, the ridge will begin moving east, out of the
area. An upper-level trough will be the driving force behind it.
There is still uncertainty as to how far south this trough will
extend. A cold front looks to slowly traverse the CWA sometime
Sunday evening into Monday. This cold front will bring temperature
relief, but just how much will depend on how far the trough gets.
Monday could still see high temperatures in the upper 90s, but
Tuesday will be a bit cooler with highs around 90. There will be a
slight chance of showers Sunday evening but the better chance at
precipitation will be on Monday and Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022
KGLD... VFR conditions are anticipated with potential for brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions should a thunderstorm move over the
terminal this evening. Storms are expected to remain isolated to
scattered in coverage across the High Plains this evening into the
overnight hours. Given the uncertainty in coverage, decided to
leave the mention of storms as VCTS for now and will update as
needed. Best chances for storms to impact the terminal
are from 00-05Z. The main hazard of concern is gusty winds.
Southeast winds are expected to shift to the north by 04Z with winds
outside of convection remaining around 10-15 kts. After 06Z,
winds should decrease to ~10 kts shifting to the NW then towards
the NE Wednesday afternoon. There is potential for sub-VFR cigs
from ~12z through the mid to potentially late morning hours
Wednesday.
KMCK... VFR conditions are anticipated with potential for brief
periods of sub-VFR conditions should a thunderstorm move over the
terminal this evening. Storms are expected to remain isolated to
scattered in coverage across the High Plains this evening into the
overnight hours. Best chances for storms to impact the terminal
are from 00-06Z. Gusty winds are the main hazards this evening.
After midnight a few light showers may move over the terminal;
however, confidence is low on coverage. Southeast winds are
expected to shift to the north by 06Z with winds outside of
convection remaining around 10-15 kts. After 06Z, winds should
decrease to ~10 kts while remaining out of the N to NE through the
end of the period. There is potential for sub-VFR cigs from about
13z or 14z through the late morning hours Wednesday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Chances for on and off showers and thunderstorms will continue
into at least Friday with some severe weather possible each day.
Warm temperatures will continue into Friday as well with
high in the 80s to 90s in addition to higher humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Morning convection continued to dissipate into the midday time frame
helping to point towards the possibility that clouds dissipate into
the afternoon. The remnant convergent boundary that served as a
focus for morning storms will continue to slowly shift southwest.
Should we see some recovery, the ultimate position of that boundary
will be key to sparking evening thunderstorms as they could form
along it and the better instability will reside south of it. As
such, the HRRR brings instability back into the area allowing for
some afternoon recovery and for some storms to form likely along the
morning boundary. Minimal shear will be around to help sustain
storms, but mid level lapse rates surpassing 6.5-7 C/km has been
able to enter into the area behind the morning storms and, should
the storms get tall enough, this would help to at least allow for
hail as a threat from any afternoon thunderstorm cell that forms.
Models also indicate that some DCAPE will be present for storms to
work with, which would make wind damage a threat. However, DCAPE
would become a lesser factor if we aren`t able to dry out the column
some. Areas from Kosciusko to Allen, IN county will need to be
watched closely in the short term for heavy rain especially if more
training of storms occur. A moist atmospheric column, as evidenced
by the around 2 inch PWATs and columnar dew points will help make
heavy rain a threat with any thunderstorms that form. Additionally,
we`ll need to watch remnant forcing from convection across the
Northern and Central Plains for a late night/early Wednesday arrival
to the area. This would allow for another chance at showers and
thunderstorms with wind and heavy rain as the main threat. It`ll
remain a muggy night tonight with 70 degree dew points and
temperatures at or a little warmer than that reading depending on
the coverage of rain/clouds.
Still continuing to see the boundary sag southward on Wednesday with
a chance for showers and thunderstorms south of that boundary,
generally south of US-30. Cooler and less humid conditions will be
possible north of the boundary in Hillsdale county. Again, wind
damage and heavy rain continue to be the main thunderstorms threats
with the moist atmospheric column, potential for training storms
along the boundary all within a microburst type set up without
substantial shear.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms occur Thursday with
70 degree dew points and highs in the 80s as the boundary nearby on
Wednesday pivots north some.
Models then begin to diverge on Friday about when to bring the front
down into the area and provide cooler temperatures and a relief to
humidity. Could see the relief wait one more day depending on the
orientation of the boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Storms have rapidly developed just east of KSBN and should
continue ESE away from the airport. Satellite showing bands of
agitated cu south of these storms but so far development has been
suppressed. Increasing low level flow and approaching wave should
spark of expanding convection across the area, more limited for
the first few hours and then expanding more with time after 3 or
4Z. Monitoring upstream convection across IL, WI and IA that will
pose a threat for more impacts to both sites overnight, but how
these storms will evolve is a bit more unclear right now. TAFs
have been hit a bit more aggressive at both sites with amendments
likely over the next several hours. Flight conditions will likely
deteriorate once convection gets going, but for now have left
conservative.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ003-
004-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.
OH...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ004-005-015-
016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...Roller
LONG TERM...Roller
AVIATION...Fisher
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
854 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Shower and thunderstorms coverage has decreased greatly following
sunset with a quiet overnight expected. Really not a lot to update
forecast package wise as tomorrow will be a rinse and repeat of
today. Updated temps and pops to better align with latest model
trends, otherwise the rest of the forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Unfortunately still "karaoke singing the same song again and
again" when it comes to hot and humid conditions across mid
state region, not just through Wednesday night, but at least
through Friday afternoon also. Mainly scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop during late morning and last into
the early evening hours. As this is summertime across mid state
region, some of those thunderstorms of course could reach strong
to even severe thresholds with gusty to damaging winds and brief
heavy rainfall. Looks like the best track for storm development
to be across northwestern portions of mid state region around
periphery of upper level ridging influences, especially as
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night progresses. There maybe
some isolated locations that approach around the 110 degree heat
index value threshold, but not widespread enough to support
issuance of a heat warning for a portion(s) of our area.
Lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in low to mid 70s with
highs on Wednesday mid to upper 90s, upper 80s to lower 90s
Cumberland Plateau Region. I will state again like I did this time
yesterday, with these hot and humid conditions and muggy nights,
please exercise caution while outdoors and take appropriate heat
safety measures and precautions, be sure you are well hydrated,
and stay in an air condition building from late morning through
early evening hours if at all possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
Just a repeat of the above for the Thursday through Friday evening
time period as it comes to hot and humid conditions with some
temporary relief from those provided by mainly scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs once again in mid to upper 90s,
upper 80s to lower 90s Cumberland Plateau Region with lows
Thursday night once again mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
Just like I said this time yesterday also, please be sure
to remember the following: Continue exercising caution while
outdoors and take appropriate heat safety measures and
precautions, and be sure you are well hydrated. Additional
things to remember during this prolonged excessive heat event
include remembering to check on the elderly, homeless, and your
outside pets also. Always check the back seat of your vehicle to
be sure it is empty of any passengers before leaving/locking it
and rolling up all the windows also.
It looks like northwesterly flow will develop as Friday night
into Saturday progresses with a surface front working itself
finally into mid state region on Saturday providing a better
chance of showers and thunderstorms with "cooler high
temperatures" in upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland
Plateau Region. Lows will actually "bottom out" near seasonal
normal values generally ranging in mid to upper 60s. This surface
front should shift southwestward with time with potentially
slightly cooler temperatures expected on Sunday with decreasing
rain chances. It looks like it will be dry across mid state region
Sunday night through Monday night, but those temperatures will be
creeping up again along with humidity levels as warm moist air
starts to return once again and become established across our
area with a return of shower and thunderstorm chances also.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022
High pressure at the surface and aloft remains the dominant
weather feature across Middle Tennessee. There are a few active
cells still occurring across the mid state although the terminals
are not likely to be affected. TAF`s are VFR. Only chance of
convection will result from the combination of existing
atmospheric moisture and soaring afternoon temperatures. The HRRR
develops nothing prior to 18Z tomorrow, so we`ll include VCTS/CB
remarks for the afternoon period on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 77 96 77 99 / 20 40 20 50
Clarksville 76 97 77 99 / 20 30 10 50
Crossville 71 88 72 89 / 30 50 20 40
Columbia 75 94 75 98 / 20 40 20 40
Cookeville 74 91 73 92 / 30 50 20 40
Jamestown 72 88 72 90 / 30 50 30 40
Lawrenceburg 75 93 75 96 / 20 40 20 50
Murfreesboro 75 95 75 98 / 20 40 20 50
Waverly 76 96 77 99 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Adcock
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 PM PDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.Synopsis...
Temperatures will remain below average this week. Dry weather is
expected except for a chance of light showers across the Coast
Range, northern Sacramento Valley and northern mountains today.
&&
.Discussion...Temperatures started this morning quite mild, about
7 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday morning and at 1 pm were 3
to 6 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Delta flow has weakened
with more limited cooling effects due to the mixed marine layer
and a weaker pressure gradient. Temperatures at 1 pm had risen to
the low to mid 80s for the Valley and Delta. Updated the forecast
this morning, increasing afternoon highs by around 4 degrees,
bringing highs in the upper 80s for much of the Valley.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies cover the mountains as an upper
trough remains off the coast. Mid level clouds have been replaced
by cumulus clouds. Radar indicates light rain showers continuing
over the northern Coastal Range and mountains of west Shasta
County. Mesoscale models indicate these showers diminishing by
early evening.
Satellite imagery shows some smoke from the Electra Fire this
afternoon. There was good humidity recovery and lighter northeast
winds into this morning. HRRR Near Surface Smoke has the smoke
tracking to the northeast as winds have shifted from light down
Valley/downslope this morning to breezy southwest this afternoon.
Winds have increased as the surface pressure gradient has
tightened. These winds are currently gusting to 20 mph over
ridges in the area. Alert Wildfire cameras are showing multiple
smoke plumes that have developed at the fire area. Winds after
midnight tonight are expected to return to light
downslope/downvalley winds.
An increased Delta breeze continues overnight bringing a cooler
morning than we saw today. Ensembles keep the main trough off
the PacNW coast the next several days continuing below-average
temperatures across interior NorCal through the work week.
Modest warming is expected this week as heights aloft increase
slightly, but continuing onshore flow will help to keep
temperatures a little below average. Dry weather is expected after
tonight.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
A weak short wave will pass over NorCal on Saturday but upper
level ridging building in from the desert southwest will continue
to bring a warming trend. Warming will continue into early next
week with Valley highs returning to near 100 by Sunday-Tuesday.
Long wave troughing over the Pacific will keep onshore winds and
will be breezy at times mainly over the Sierra and through the
Delta and will provide overnight cooling to influenced areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds
remain under 12 knots except in the Delta where gusts up to 25
knots will be possible.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$