Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/05/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
850 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Overall the forecast looks fine and am not planning any major changes this evening. HRRR does continue to bring a small MCS into the nw CWA toward morning so will keep pops going. Temps look fine. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 A quieter day this afternoon than yesterday, with the main item of note being the areas of clouds that are both diurnally driven and also moving south out of ND under the northerly winds associated with the weakening 925-850mb low over western MN. These clouds have been fairly shallow, as there is a decent cap over the area from the 15-17C 750mb air over the region. The clouds, recent rain, and shallow cooler layer below that inversion has led to temperatures struggling to rise as much as expected this afternoon. Temperatures at 1pm are generally in the low-mid 80s, but with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, it still feels muggy out there. These cooler than expected temps do lead to a concern that we`ll reach heat advisory criteria over our far southern area. Will keep an eye on that over the next couple of hours and we`re still struggling to warm into the 90s, could end up canceling the advisory early. For the rest of the short term period, a couple of shortwaves can be seen on WV imagery this afternoon rounding the upper ridge and moving through northeast MT, ND, and northwest MN. These are all producing some showers and won`t be impacting our area. Starting to see some development at this time over the Black Hills and they will likely move off the hills this afternoon and into the evening, trying to reach our area. But the general indication is for these storms to struggle as they encounter the existing capping east of the hills. The main concern will be tied to the shortwave lifting northeast through ID. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop as the wave moves over the MT mountains and move out over central/eastern MT this evening. Mean winds and forward propagating Corfidi vectors would point to movements of ordinary/clusters of storms moving to the east-northeast with time, largely putting things in ND. If storms become supercells, could see motions more to the southeast with time, which would bring a better opportunity for storms moving into north central SD. One thing that could help support a little more southward trend, is the better instability over southern MT/ND and across SD tonight. That may help guide the storms this way as they try to maintain that support. The storm propagation is really driving the uncertainty tonight and differences in the CAM solutions. They have a good idea on things moving out of MT and into western ND overnight, but then the question is do they drive southeast towards us or stay north. That depends on the storm mode and likely won`t be known until later tonight. Thus, have shown some potential in the PoPs for storms to drop southeast and across the area, but left it in the low end chance category (25-40 percent) for now. The timing of this would be in the late overnight through the morning hours tomorrow. After any potential convection tomorrow morning, the setup seems to be fairly similar to today, with the area dependent on upstream convection to bring us any rain opportunities. Seems like the better opportunity will be to the southeast and northwest of us overall, which shows up well in the SPC Day 2 outlook. The area to the southeast will be associated with the warm front that has been slowly sagging south, while the storms to the northwest will be driven by a shortwave and development in eastern MT. The MT storms will be the ones for us to watch, as they would have the potential to work towards this area. Again, like tonight, the storm motions will really drive where things go and they appear to be a little more east-southeast on Tuesday night, so we could see them driving southeast into our area during the overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Much of the long term period will have the area under the upper ridge, with the axis starting just east of the northern/Canadian Rockies, before shifting eastward and over the northern Plains and central Canada this weekend. With the northwesterly flow aloft around the ridge, will continue to see opportunities for thunderstorms every 12-24hrs as shortwaves lead to development either over our area, or more likely upstream and then move into the area. There will likely be one of these waves to start the period on Wednesday morning, then off and on through Friday. Seems like the shear gradually weakens through the week, so that should help limit some of the severe potential or at least start to weaken things as they move into the area. Starting to see the 500mb height ensemble clusters have some different solutions towards the end of the weekend and early next week, as the ridge begins to break down and we have some sort of upper trough move through the area early next week. There is some timing differences, with one cluster (only 10 percent of members) that shows the trough setting up by Sunday, but the rest are set on the Monday time frame. Of course, differences in strength at this point, but it should start to bring a end of the above normal temperatures from the weekend (highs and heat indicies in the 90s), along with the potential for some precipitation again, as an associated cold front pushes through the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR skies and vsbys are expected through most of the night. However, toward morning some MVFR cigs may move in from the north, especially across the KMBG/KABR terminals. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
920 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep weather quiet and skies mostly sunny into this evening. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on Tuesday, especially for the afternoon and evening. Additional low chances for some showers and thunderstorms will then be possible the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 915 PM Update... Once again, forecasted sky cover was a little low with the incoming clouds. The NBM was blended in with a little bit of the GFS and HRRR to get more sky cover for the overnight hours. This gives mostly cloudy skies for the region just after midnight. PoPs were updated for the overnight hours as well. Blending in the newest NBM guidance with the previous forecast keeps things drier for an extra hour as shown by the shorter range models. Overall, no major changes were made to PoPs and were left as is beyond sunrise. Hourly temps and winds were also touched up based on latest observations. There were some low 60s reported in the northern Oneida County and in the Susquehanna Region, so temps are starting to cool down with the sun now below the horizon. 600 PM Update... A mid to high level cloud layer is beginning to move into the region from the northwest. It is just entering the Finger Lakes region at this hour. Most of the region is mostly sunny to partly sunny. Sky cover was updated based on current satellite. In addition, hourly sky cover was increased over the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill Plateau a little early from the previous forecast since this cloud layer is moving in and will continue to push into the region. Temperatures remain pleasant and only needed little adjusting. The hourly winds were also doing fairly well and were touched up based on the observations. 320 PM Update Just some scattered fair weather cumulus clouds around the area into this evening, with perhaps some high clouds also building over Central NY toward sunset. Otherwise, it`ll be dry with temperatures between about 68-75 and light winds just after sunset for any Independence Day celebrations. Confidence continues to increase in a mainly dry night due to the lingering influence of the departing high pressure system and an embedded wave/warm frontal feature remaining well north of the area. That being said, cannot rule out a stray shower north of the NY Thruway corridor late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy skies are expected for most of the area, but mostly cloudy skies are expected to move in after midnight for parts of Central NY, particularly north of the NY Thruway corridor. Lows are expected to range from 55-65. Our period of quiet weather comes to an end on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to near the NY/Canadian border, dragging a pre-frontal trough through the region by late morning or early afternoon. 35-50kts of deep- layer shear will be present, but instability will be lacking until late in the afternoon or the evening. In fact, some model guidance is hinting at two separate complexes of storms pushing through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic; one across northern New England and another moving from the Ohio Valley to the Mid- Atlantic, with our region sandwiched in between (but much closer to the southern complex). This all indicates that coverage of afternoon convection may be more scattered rather than widespread, with the greatest chances being from the Twin Tiers southward. As the main cold front approaches during the evening hours another area of showers and t`storms will press through the area from Northwest to Southeast...model guidance has been consistently showing the highest MLCAPE values advecting in during the very late afternoon and especially evening hours as an elevated mixed layer moves into the area. MLCAPE values could approach 1000-1500 J/Kg from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA during this timeframe. There remains uncertainty on if all ingredients will line up to produce any severe storms though; this will certainly be something to monitor closely. SPC continues to have this exact part of our area highlighted in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, with just far southern tip of our CWA in a "Slight Risk" in their Day 2 Outlook. Any storms that do become strong to severe will have the potential to produce gusty winds. The other concern for Tuesday is the marginal heavy rainfall threat in any storms that do develop. Forecast soundings continue to show rather skinny CAPE with a thick warm cloud layer. PWATs will be approaching 1.75 inches. Motion of any storms will be rather progressive, but if any backbuilding occurs, localized flash flooding will be possible. As such, WPC continues to have the entire region in a "Marginal Risk" for excessive rainfall for Tuesday, but again this will highly depend on how widespread convection gets and overall storm motions. High temperatures on Tuesday will be very similar to today (upper 70s to mid-80s), but the noticeable difference will be the increase in dew points (rising well into the 60s by the afternoon). Therefore, it will feel much more humid as well. The cold front then moves south across CNY before midnight Tuesday night and prior to daybreak Wednesday for NE PA. Behind the front expect just a few lingering isolated showers and mostly cloudy conditions. Winds turn west-northwest up to 10 mph and overnight lows remain mild well into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 240 PM Update... The short term will be mostly dry with the best shot of precipitation being early on Wednesday with some low level moisture behind the front. With day time heating and dry air advecting in as high pressure builds in the low level moisture gets mixed out. Dry conditions Wednesday night allows for good radiational cooling with lows down in the mid 50s for most locations. A few of the higher elevations of the Catskills as well as farther north along the Tug Hill, some locations will likely fall into the upper 40s for lows. Thursday is once again nice with ridging building back in and SW flow bringing in warmer and more humid air with more seasonable lows Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 240 PM Update... The long term is once again looking quiet as well with the strong ridging steadfast over the central and western US with the ring of fire mostly staying to the W and SW of our region. Our next chance of precipitation is looking to be Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave moving over the ridge is able to flatten the trough over the Northeast a bit. Due to the dry air in place across most of CNY preceding the shortwave, NEPA has the better chance of meaningful rain with the Friday system as ensembles are more confident in PWAT recovery farther south. Behind the cold front Friday, cool, dry air advects into the region from the NW with cooler weather expected next weekend once again and little to no chances of precipitation. The 12Z GEFS has a 5% chance or less of seeing a hundredth of an inch of QPF from late Friday night into early next week. While the 12Z EPS has not come in yet as of writing this the overnight guidance had very low chances of QPF as well through the weekend with only a couple of members getting to a 10th of an inch. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected through at least the first half of the forecast period. Light rain showers start to push into the region tomorrow morning as a warm front pushes through. More intense showers and possibly thunderstorms are expect late tomorrow afternoon and through tomorrow evening as a cold front passes. Expect possible IFR restrictions in the heaviest showers and of course thunderstorms. Outlook... Tuesday Night...Showers/thunderstorms and associated restrictions will be possible into the overnight hours. Wednesday...Possible lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR for the afternoon areawide. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR but scattered showers/isolated thunder could cause intermittent restrictions. Saturday...VFR Expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM SHORT TERM...AJG/MDP LONG TERM...AJG/MDP AVIATION...MPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
946 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .UPDATE... Convection expected to persist along our northern forecast area while tracking slowly eastward tonight. Have extended the severe thunderstorm watch for wheatland, golden valley and musselshell thru midnight...but cancelled sweet grass, stillwater and musselshell. Expect hail and very heavy rain w/ any storms across our north tonight. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday night... The pattern of daily severe potential will hold into Wednesday. Southwest flow aloft will send wave after wave of energy through the forecast area. These waves will encounter a very moisture rich airmass, leading to high capes. The threat for heavy rain is also there with very high precipitable water values. This afternoon and this evening: Morning convection and subsidence behind the shortwave that caused the convection, has led to a capped environment through early afternoon. Cumulus clouds were forming over the mountains and this should serve to erode the cap over time. Short range models were still not in great agreement in how the storms will evolve tonight. The GFS and HRRR were developing things farther west and north and swinging the strongest storms along the northwest and northern periphery of the forecast area. HREF splits some cells around Billings, sending strong convection north and south of Billings. The ECMWF develops strong storms just west of Billings and moves a line across central zones. So, three different scenarios to pick from. Regardless, will go with high scattered PoPs, with a focus on the ensembles, which hits the north hardest. Any storm today has potential for large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Storms will be moving fast, so this should help limit flash flooding potential. That being said, PWATs ranging from an inch to an inch and a quarter could drop a ton of water in a short period of time, so will have to watch this closely. Overnight: Storms looks to evolve into a complex over eastern Montana overnight. Most forecast sources keep the strongest storms over northeast Montana but swing some strong cells across northern parts of Rosebud, Custer and Fallon counties. Storms could go on through the night (again, disagreement on evolution of this), so went with higher PoPs over the east tonight. The consensus seems to point to the north for the best chance of thunderstorms tonight. Will have to watch Custer and Fallon counties closely for potential hydro issues, as these locations picked up quite a bit of water last night. Tuesday: More severe thunderstorms possible as southwest flow aloft continues. Capes over 2000j/kg focus on the east for the best potential for strongest storms. That being said, capes reach 1000j/kg as far west as Livingston with easterly surface winds, so the entire area has a severe risk. Shear was progged a little weaker and storm motion does not look quite as fast. Precipitable water values over an inch and slower storm motion puts a little higher risk of torrential rainfall causing some issues with flooding. Will have to monitor this closely, especially over the east with PWATs to an inch and a half. Will have to watch how things evolve tonight and how much extra water is laid down before adding potential flash flood watches. TWH Wednesday through Monday... More storms expected for the rest of the week, with an increase in temperatures and in general, fairly hot and humid days that`ll make you feel like you`re in the midwest. Despite building heights mid-week, we hang on to low-level flow bringing moisture into the area and southwest flow aloft, giving us chances for isolated severe storms each day, and larger coverage for general storm activity. Wednesday could have larger severe storm coverage as a decent wave looks to move through us. However, shear still looks to be less than the previous days, but regardless, large hail, strong winds, and flash flood potential are all on standby once again. While slightly less, a similar story can be told for every day the rest of the week, though increasing temperatures (reaching the 90s Thursday-Saturday) may limit the severe potential. MOre prominent upper troughs and shortwave will swing through on Saturday, bringing with it a cold front that will slightly cool us off, but also could provide a prominent source of lift for high thunderstorm coverage that day. Something to keep an eye on. Slightly cooler highs (80s) expected early next week. Vertz && .AVIATION... More thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening and track from west to east across southern Montana. All storms will have the potential for hail, strong winds and torrential rainfall. Storms will produce brief MVFR or lower flight conditions. Greatest chance of storms is after 00z, and storms are expected to continue overnight east of KBIL, while tapering off by midnight from KBIL west. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/080 061/086 062/087 062/092 062/090 062/086 059/083 54/T 33/T 34/T 32/T 12/T 22/T 11/U LVM 052/081 053/086 055/086 055/089 055/088 053/085 051/082 25/T 25/T 35/T 32/T 22/T 11/U 11/U HDN 059/084 060/088 060/089 060/093 060/092 060/087 057/084 44/T 32/T 23/T 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 062/083 062/084 065/087 064/091 065/091 064/085 059/082 64/T 63/T 24/T 32/T 21/U 21/U 11/U 4BQ 062/086 063/084 064/088 063/092 066/094 064/086 060/081 54/T 53/T 24/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U BHK 061/081 061/081 063/083 063/089 065/090 062/083 057/080 65/T 84/T 35/T 42/T 21/U 21/U 11/U SHR 057/086 059/086 060/088 059/092 062/094 060/087 056/081 24/T 34/T 23/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431 in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 29-42-63-68-172-228. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433 in effect until 4 AM MDT Tuesday FOR ZONES 30>33-58. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Warm front continues to lift into eastern IA with temps in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. SBCAPE was around 5500 J/kg in central and southeast IA. Thunderstorms from this morning across roughly our north half that brought 1-4 inches of rain was finally exiting our far eastern counties. In the meantime, a line of storms was coming out of southcentral WI into Stephenson county. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Headlines: No changes to the heat advisories. Severe potential: Slight risk through Wednesday. Any storm could easily and quickly become severe in this environment. Tonight: Low confidence with regard to convective trends. The HRRR keeps all the convection northeast of our cwa, while the NAMNEST tries to dive a MCS into eastern IA after midnight with initiation in northcentral IA. Taking a middle-of-the-road approach with chance pops in our northeast cwa. What is certain is that this will be a muggy and warm night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday: All models suggest we will be convection-free for much of the day with a lack of forcing. This will allow a hot/very humid day with highs in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints well into the 70s. Heat index values will push to 105 to 110 and an excessive heat warning may be needed. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 1) Hot and humid for several days this week. 2) Daily chances for thunderstorms this week. 3) Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Details: Tuesday night through Friday: Hot and humid with daily chances for thunderstorms as the weather pattern remains locked in place. In other words, we remain on the edge of the heat dome with a zonal flow across the northern states. Any disturbance in the flow could generate rounds of thunderstorms but timing these is difficult this far out. In this pattern can`t rule out severe storms/heavy rainfall. The NAMNEST indicates explosive thunderstorm development Tuesday evening in eastern IA followed by an intense MCS coming into the cwa Tuesday night. Later shifts will need to monitor model trends. Global models suggest several MCS events across the dvn cwa mid to late week which would increase the threat for flash flooding but time will tell. Friday through Monday: Global models seem to want to suppress the heat dome to the south and west as a broad trough forms in the northeast United States. This allows for a northwest flow with the heat shoved back into the Plains. How far west this heat is pushed westward remains to be seen. This would also end the chance for thunderstorms. As of now, the NBM suggests highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 VFR is expected this evening into the first part of tonight, but there is a low chance for another round of thunderstorms late. Did not mention thunder in the TAFs with this update due to the low confidence on impacts at the terminals. Will continue to monitor closely and update with TEMPOs if necessary. Thunderstorms may redevelop across the area Tuesday afternoon or into Tuesday night -- confidence is very low on the timing and placement this far out. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Benton-Buchanan- Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson- Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Washington. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee- Van Buren. IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Bureau-Carroll- Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island- Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Hancock-McDonough. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Clark-Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haase SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Uttech
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 358 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022 Key Message * Heat continues all week, with heat indices 100 to 110 area-wide * Wednesday may offer some temporary relief with some cloud cover, but not confident in those cooler temperatures or beneficial rainfall * Next weekend and next week may offer some more prolonged relief from the oppressive heat The heat and humidity will continue across the area as steady southerly warm and moist air pushes in. Mid level ridging will keep away any synoptically evident support for ascent, which should keep the forecast mostly dry. The atmosphere today will be mostly uncapped, so there could be some deep cumulus with perhaps a very isolated shower or two where unresolved low level convergence can focus. Outside of that limited possibility, there should be little to no rain area wide for the rest of today, going into tomorrow. Tuesday will present a carbon copy of Monday, with southerly flow continuing to feed warm and moist air into the area. The mid level ridging will still be in place, albeit not focused directly over the immediate area. This minute detail doesn`t appear to offer much solace from the hot conditions or the dry forecast, again outside of an unresolved shower or two within the uncapped warm/moist airmass. The real question with respect to the heat (and precipitation chances) comes with a decaying convective system Wednesday morning. Deep convection across the northern plains is much more likely to form on Tuesday afternoon (relative to local chances for rain), and hi-res models are hinting at a complex running southeastward out of the Dakotas and into Iowa and northern Missouri for Wednesday morning. The 18z run of the HRRR actually indicates outflow and perhaps deeper cloud cover extending well south of I-70, which would essentially result in a wholesale change in the local weather pattern, namely in the form of cooler temperatures and perhaps a chance for some light (likely non-beneficial) rainfall. This has ramifications for the ongoing Heat Advisory, which currently runs through Wednesday. Should confidence increase on Wednesday that conditions will remain warm, then it`s likely that the heat will extend all week, into Thursday and Friday with heat indices around 105 each day. This would result in the need to upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning. However, should the HRRR pan out and the cool air and clouds extend southward far enough it would break up the heat wave, and likely only result in two or so more days on the end of the week with hot conditions. At any rate, the confidence in how Wednesday will play out with respect to temps and precipitation precludes any change to the ongoing heat hazard. We will resume the hot conditions Thursday in all likelihood and extend those conditions into Friday as the warm sector rebuilds in the area and the mid level ridge remains the dominant feature. However, by next weekend and into next week there could be a breakdown of that ridge. As the ridge displaces to the west, northwest flow aloft will push over the area, which will increase the chances of a low level boundary and cooler temperatures for next weekend. Mid level flow looks to be more zonal, with perhaps some upstream troughing by next week, which should offer some relief from the current heat wave. && .Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2022 VFR conditions expected through the period. Could have temporary smoke concerns, but southwest winds around 10 knots should remain through the night dispersing smoke fairly quickly. Low level jet tonight is situated a bit higher above the surface, with a max around 2500 ft agl, so did not include mention in TAF. Models suggest cloud deck may try to develop ~10K feet overnight, and remain through at least part of the day on Tuesday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. MO...Heat Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. && $$ Discussion...Leighton Aviation...BT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 All activity has diminished. Did keep low pop for something overnight in Devils Lake area but that was it and even there it is very low. But not quite low enough to remove. Cloud trends will be looked at to see if lower clouds to the north do indeed drop south. For a while they did but have since stopped advecting south. UPDATE Issued at 713 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Thunderstorm chances tonight is the biggest question mark. We have sufficient bulk shear 0-6 km 40-45 kts and sfc based cape from heating currently, but water vapor shows no mid/upper level forcing. A few storms try to form then get sheared about and weaken. Surface flow is very light, barely 10 kts. The better chances of any showers or t-storms is north of the border closer to 500 mb short waves. There is a short wave moving northeast out of SE Wyoming into the Black Hills at 00z, but no sufficient 850 mb jet to continue any complex that may form. So net result is a slight chc for a shower or t-storm thru the night but that is about it. HRRR and CAMS kept generating storms in central or north central ND and move them southeast but so far that hasnt occurred. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into early evening. Some storms may be strong to severe. Features of note include a weak sfc low just east of the Fargo- Moorhead area into lakes country of WC MN. This feature has proven resistant to weakening as it continues east. This may continue through the afternoon, although it remains unclear, if not unlikely, whether there will be enough upper forcing for ascent to aid in more robust convection to introduce this area as a contender for severe hazards. Regardless of this uncertainty, we cannot rule WC MN out of the chance for isolated severe hazards. Another feature of note includes a sfc trof extending N-S from Devils Lake basin into the James River Valley, with a slow moving cool front sagging out of Canada. Near the conjunction of these two boundaries, a small thunderstorm exhibiting right deviant motion is being noted. It is currently too small spatially to claim this is robust enough to reach severe limits, but the right deviant motion does suggest some mesocyclone is driving this cell, with KMVX picking up on some mid level rotation. This may continue its SSE dive with sufficient instability and moisture ahead of it. The Devils Lake basin may see additional development later this afternoon as a wave moving out of eastern MT into western ND nears the region. This area is another area of interest for robust thunderstorm development potentially reaching severe criteria. Today`s hazards will likely remain on the lower end of severe spectrum (quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds) given most of the shear confined to the mid- upper levels, weak instability (1-2 kJ/kg MLCAPE), and general lack of better upper level support for sustained ascent. It is worth mentioning there was a landspout-type funnel reported in the central RRV this afternoon as an updraft sprouted off of remnant outflow boundary. We cannot rule out an additional occurrence of this happening again given the presence of several boundaries around the area in an area of strong low level instability. The aforementioned cool front moving out of CAN is expected to push south through the area tonight. This will help scour away the very moist low level presently over the area. It will also help lessen the chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, but there is still some chance for convection moving out of western ND and southern SD scraping the far western and southern CWA. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Overview... Impactful weather across the long term will be tied to periodic shower and thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend looks to take hold of the region moving toward the weekend with generally seasonable temperatures anticipated prior to this warm up. Discussion... Upper level ridging over much of the central and southern Plains will continue to impact the northern Plains in an ancillary fashion through much of the remainder of the week. The ridge is eventually expected to build northward toward the latter half of the week into the weekend, where temperature will look to reach their apex. Prior to this, however, a few periodic shortwaves look to bring precipitation impacts to the region. Due to the transient nature of these waves though, there is still significant disagreement within ensemble guidance with respect to their intensity and attendant potential impacts. Latest NBM probabilities of 24-hour QPF exceeding 0.25" are low (~20% or less) through the end of the week, with western and central North Dakota looking like the preferential zones for precipitation. This is due to the orientation of the ridge aloft and how the shortwaves look to progress through the pattern. Regardless, given warming temperatures and modest moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s) in place, some thunderstorm development seems possible if any forcing mechanisms are present. At this range, however, it is tough to nail down one particular wave or more robust opportunity for thunderstorms through the end of the week. Moving toward the latter half of the week and into the weekend, the aforementioned upper level ridge looks to build northward into the northern Plains for a short period. Cluster analysis is in good agreement on this feature, although does show some disagreement by the late weekend period regarding the potential for this ridge to break down. Nevertheless, this upper level ridging should help temperatures warm up to slightly above normal values in the 80s to low 90s. Thunderstorm chances may also persist as the orientation of the upper ridge begins to potentially favor the forecast area for shortwave progressions, but there is still some uncertainty in this. Furthermore, ensemble guidance is showing some indications in an upper low, currently over the Pacific Northwest, traversing eastward within the flow pattern by the late weekend period. Ahead of this potential system, strong warm, moist advection should be able to introduce some instability to the region that could spark some stronger thunderstorm activity. Cluster analysis does still indicate a ~15% chance that the ridge aloft remains intact over the northern Plains and shunts the upper low northward across Canada though. Due to this uncertainty, there is lower overall confidence in this potential system at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 713 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Shower or t-storm threat is quite low thru the pd. Cannot rule it out at anyone TAF site but chance is too low to mention in predominate part of TAFs. Light winds thru the pd. Cloud cover and ceilings are a huge question mark. Models insist on bringing southward some lower clouds in S Manitoba and far northern ND and lower end MVFR or even IFR cigs over all areas by late tonight/Tues AM. Low confidence in this but also nothing shows that it cannot happen. Both conshort and NBM have it so did go along with it for the TAF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...Rick AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure centered over the SD/NE border with an associated warm front extended southeast across Iowa and southern Illinois. Shortwave energy is moving east across the northern Mississippi Valley and north of the warm front and bringing a swath of showers and storms to most of the state except the far northeast quadrant. Wind gusts to 35 mph have been observed from these storms in Wisconsin Rapids and Marshfield, though gusts have not been as strong further east. Because the unstable airmass along and south of the warm front has been suppressed south from the swath of rainfall, the probability of severe storms has diminished considerably for the rest of the day. Forecast concerns continue to revolve around precip trends and potential for strong storms. Tonight...Shortwave energy will be moving across far northeast WI and northern Lake Michigan in the evening. The low level jet will continue to be pointed across northeast WI early in the evening, which will continue the chance of showers and storms. But in general, coverage of precip will be diminishing as QG forcing exits east and the low level jet veers more in the west to east direction. As a result, think the chance of severe storms is low and have sped up the departure of the precip. Partial clearing will move into central to northeast WI in the wake of the shortwave. With a moist boundary layer and light winds, conditions will be supportive for fog developing late tonight. More uncertainty exists across the northwoods where a northerly low level wind trajectory could bring in clouds from the Lake Superior region. Temps will be warmer and more muggy with lows ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Tuesday...The frontal system from today`s thunderstorm complex will settle across the southern Wisconsin. Weak high pressure will be building in from the north with a strong inversion between 850-700mb leading to shallow cu formation once any morning fog burns off. Temps will be warm with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 A backdoor cold front will bring a slug of cooler air to the region Tuesday night. There could be some showers or thunderstorms across far southern central and east-central Wisconsin with this feature; however, the forecast is expected to be dry for the most part. The boundary will remain to our south for the middle to late part of the week, as several thunderstorm complexes pass near or just to the south of the area. These complexes could bring some showers or thunderstorms to the southern cwa at times as they track through the region, with the best chances across central and east-central Wisconsin. Cloud debris and northeasterly flow will keep temperatures around normal for this time of year or a few degrees below normal through the end of the week. High pressure will build in across the Great Lakes on Saturday then slide southeast of the area by Sunday. The high should keep much of next weekend dry; however, an approaching cold front could bring some showers and thunderstorms to north-central Wisconsin on Sunday. Recent model runs are a bit slower with this feature, so the thinking is the bulk of this precipitation should hold off until Sunday night and Monday when the cold front sweeps through the area. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Low clouds and fog will produce IFR conditions across the region tonight. Flight conditions should improve slowly after 8am Tuesday and become MVFR or VFR in the afternoon. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1002 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid high pressure dominates through the workweek, with daily diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday. High pressure breaks down over the region and retreats west as a cold front approaches from the north this weekend. This front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances around and and will lead to cooler temperatures across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 950 PM: Weak high pressure centered NE of the region maintains a light southeasterly low-level flow regime over the CWA. No surprise then that the remaining convective activity is almost entirely along and southeast of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Net steering flow is minimal and the extant cells probably will just rain themselves out. Not seeing any obvious new cloud formation on shortwave IR imagery. Cannot deny that the flow will maintain the potential for upslope showers to continue east of the Escarpment through most of the night. HRRR and NAM profiles depict a respectable amount of MUCAPE atop mixed layer at the sfc. Have refined overnight PoPs to feature a sharper gradient, i.e., high scattered to numerous wording invof the current activity, and almost entirely only isolated wording elsewhere. Mins mostly appear on track but made tweaks in light of recent obs trends and outflow effects. Extent of the convective debris may play a big role in how extensive fog becomes across the Piedmont; somewhat more confident that the lower elevations of the Piedmont will remain clear, and thus daybreak fog looks a little more likely (and impactful) than previously thought. Steering flow is so weak at cirrus level that it may take longer than usual to clear out what cirrus are already there. Very little change in the overall pattern is expected on Tuesday, winds veering to the SW should result in less (or at least more quickly dissipating) morning cloud cover, with the atmosphere likely destabilizing to similar, perhaps even stronger levels than today. However, with the boundary expected to be less of a player in convective initiation tomorrow afternoon, sources of lift should be largely confined to terrain effects. Coverage is therefore expected to be less than today...more in line with a typical early July day, with generally 40-60 PoPs advertised over the high terrain, and 30-40 outside the mountains. Max temps will be a degree or two above normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday: Upper-level ridging remains over the Southeast through the short term forecast period leading to hot and humid conditions. NW/W`ly downslope flow will lead to high temps east of the mountains in the low to mid 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. Heat index values look to range from the upper 90s to lower 100s east of the mountains. Highs across the mountains look to range mostly from the lower 80s to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwaves will round the northern periphery of the ridge diving southeastward into the Carolinas leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances. Currently have high end chance to low end likely PoPs during peak daytime heating on both Wednesday and Thursday. The SPC has our area in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday. This makes sense as both global models and ensembles show a few thousand J/kg of SBCAPE on Wednesday. Currently the NAM is the most bullish with roughly 3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE. The GFS and ECMWF have lower values ranging from 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. The GEFS ensemble mean has about 2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE. with very little shear in place, them main potential severe weather threats on Wednesday look to be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Model solutions agree that shear should be generally less than 15 knots, so slow moving storms are likely on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding for any areas that received heavy rainfall days prior, as well as areas that see cells develop overhead for a prolonged period of time with little movement. Thursday SBCAPE and shear values looks fairly similar to Wednesday, so strong to severe storms will be possible through the end of the short term forecast period. High temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees above climo, with lows about 5 to 10 degrees above climo. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Monday: The upper-level ridge remains the main feature through Friday keeping hot and humid conditions around to end the workweek. Shortwaves will continue to round the northern ridge axis Thursday night into Friday night keeping shower and thunderstorm chances around. Instability looks to be less on Friday compared to the short term, with the GEFS ensemble mean showing about 1,500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Shear remains generally less than 15 knots on Friday. So, overall the severe weather potential looks to be lower compared to the short term. But still couldn`t rule out a few strong to severe storms. Potential impacts remain the same as the short term, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding. High temperatures on Friday look only about a degree or two cooler compared to Thursday. Heat index values look to range from the upper 90s to lower 100s east of the mountains. Throughout the rest of the extended forecast period, upper-level ridging will gradually break down across the Southeast and will retreat west as upper-level troughing digs into the Mid-Atlantic out of the Midwest and Northeast. This will bring a much needed relief from the heat late this weekend with cooler temperatures on tap. Shortwaves will track along the SW trough axis, diving into the Carolinas Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach out of the north before pushing across the area late Saturday night into early Sunday. This will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend. SBCAPE is trending lower for the weekend per the GEFS ensemble mean. Values look to range from about 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg with shear values remaining below 15 knots. So, the severe weather potential looks low this weekend. High temps will remain hot and humid Saturday but will be a few degrees cooler compared to Friday. Highs east of the mountains should only top out into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday. High temps Sunday should drop down into the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains, with lower 70s to mid 80s across the mountains. Lows will remain above normal through the extended forecast period. High temps remain above normal through Saturday, dropping below normal on Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: SHRA with a few embedded TSRA continue to bubble near the Blue Ridge Escarpment (KAVL) and along an outflow boundary (KAND). Light southeasterly flow will continue overnight in seasonably humid airmass, with sufficient elevated instability to expect some chance of precip much of the night for those two sites. The other sites most likely are done with convection due to the passage of earlier outflows. Convective debris probably will be slow to dissipate owing to weak upper level winds, and is the main limiting factor for overnight restrictions. Continuing SE flow may lead to nocturnal stratus formation; have kept IFR in TEMPO for the Piedmont sites. KAVL looks likely to experience a typical valley fog morning. Not much change in the pattern for Tuesday; the boundary that played a role today will have lifted north of the region, but potential destabilization appears greater. Saw fit to maintain PROB30 TSRA at all sites. Outlook: Diurnal chances of SHRA/TSRA will continue through the week. Low-end fog and/or stratus restrictions will be possible each morning, especially for any locations that receive rain the previous day. Thunderstorm coverage Wed-Fri is expected to be above average for the season, trending down behind a cold front this weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AP NEAR TERM...JDL/Wimberley SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM...AP AVIATION...Wimberley
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1039 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... It will be hot and humid through much of the week. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The round 1 complex from IL/IN diminishing rapidly and yielding just high clouds pushing through areas north of Dayton. Clouds will overspread the region overnight, and with increasing low level moisture, overnight lows remain warm in the upper 60s to near 70 east and lower 70s near and west of I-75. Round 2 currently intensifying over southern WI and heading ESE overnight. CAMs coming up with varying solutions on progression and maintenance of the system as it pushes through IL/IN and southern MI. WRF-ARW and HRRR seem to have the better handle overall on how both systems are playing out, with each run of the HRRR slightly slower. The 00z HRRR doesn`t bring the main system into the area until close to 09-10z, so have slowed onset slightly across the area. Unlike previous CAM runs, HRRR is more consistently holding the system together through Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Decaying MCS is expected to continue southeast and dissipate before the morning is through. This will likely leave a boundary across the forecast area which will be a focus for new convection as the atmosphere becomes very unstable in the afternoon, although shear is minimal. Where that boundary will be located is uncertain. With the expectation that CAMs are handling this better than synoptic models, have relied heavily on the HREF, as opposed to any one particular CAM, as a guide for this forecast package. Given that, better coverage of new storms is forecast to be near the Ohio River with perhaps somewhat greater chance in the Tri- State. If shear is as unimpressive as forecast, then expect little organization, but more than sufficient instability to result in tall storms that result in damaging winds and perhaps large hail. With precipitable water approaching 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat. Storms may continue well into the evening, especially into eastern Indiana where greater instability may linger. Another MCS dropping out of the Great Lakes and moving into the northern part of the forecast area late Tuesday night looks likely at this point. Dew points will push into the 70s Tuesday morning and remain there through the rest of the period. Remnants/cloud debris from morning convection could affect temperatures adding another uncertainty in the forecast. But with highs forecast to get into the lower to mid 90s, heat indices will be near or above advisory criterion. Have issued a heat advisory only for area where there is greater confidence at this moment. It will be sultry Tuesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Northwesterly upper level flow on the eastern side up an anomalous upper level ridge remains in place over the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week. Northwesterly flow aloft overlaps with hot, humid, unstable air Wednesday through Friday leading to chances for convection especially during the afternoon hours. The strongest storms will likely pose a downburst and heavy rain risk due to copious amounts of instability, high PWATs, and moderate DCAPE. Storm mode remains difficult to forecast since shear is forecast to be fairly low (bulk shear 25 knots or less). Best guess is single and multicells being most prevalent through the week, however there is a chance that cold pools agglomerate leading to MCS potential. Forecast highs remain near 90 through Friday and forecast lows are near 70. A cold front (with thunderstorms) may drop through the area later on Friday into Saturday. Cooler, drier air moves in behind the front for the bulk of the weekend with forecast temperatures near seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expecting VFR conditions through TAF sites, with the exception of MVFR visibility at KLUK in the 08-11z timeframe. With approach of currently weakening elevated convective system over Indiana, and then clouds from the currently developing thunderstorm complex over southern WI, high clouds will make for less favorable river valley fog conditions. Still some uncertainty with path and sustainability of the WI complex, but mesoanalysis still yields the potential for weakening as this system travels through lower MI/IL/IN. Kept the period of VCSH at both KDAY/KCMH, and will have to monitor trends and reexamine for activity to stay together enough to affect KILN in the 10-12z timeframe. Scattered VFR cu to linger through the day on Tuesday, with several of the CAMs favoring afternoon thunderstorm development affecting KLUK/KCVG in the 22z-02z timeframe. Have not included in the TAFs at this time due to high uncertainty. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ034-035-042- 043-051-060-061-070-071-077. KY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for KYZ089>096. IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...JDR
National Weather Service Jackson KY
954 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2022 Any remaining widely scattered showers and storms will diminish over the next couple hours, and then looking at dry conditions overnight with passing high clouds moving through the area. Patchy river valley fog is expected in the typical locations, as well as locations that received rainfall this evening. Made some minor adjustments to temps and dewpoints, along with sky cover. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 458 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2022 A ridge of high pressure will be in control through the short term for much of the southeast, including Kentucky. This will allow for clearing skies overnight, and another round of deeper valley fog. However, as light winds become more southerly overnight, and moisture increases, temperatures will remain quite mild, settling in the upper 60s and low 70s for lows. Meanwhile, lowering heights will be in place to our northeast. A surface low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes during the day Tuesday, riding along the ESE flow created by both upper level systems. A complex of storms will develop around the low, which is also expected to ride along the ridge and shift eastward throughout the day. Models continue to have difficulty in analyzing this system, especially when it comes to how much moisture/precip chances will make it southward and into the northern half of the state. Despite the fact there is no specific boundary moving through the state, the precip does look to line up near the Appalachians, likely aided by some upslope flow. With this in mind, precip chances seem to be a bit better during the day across the far southeastern CWA. As far as the severe potential on Tuesday, SPC has continued the slight risk across the northern half of the state as the MCS skirts across the Ohio Valley. Given how warm the airmass is, and how high the humidity is, hail will have a very hard time making it to severe criteria. The other threat will be wind. So on that note...digging into things a bit. According to the RAP, we will have some sheer, but less in comparison to the NAM. If the RAP pans out, the lack of sheer will lead to more precip loading, and also a higher threat of microburst activity. In fact, latest RAP guidance ranges microburst potential between 5 (south) and 9 (north), with a value of 9 being a indicator of likely microburst activity, presuming that a storm is in place. However, if the NAM pans out, better sheer (around 30kts) would create a more organized storm with a defined updraft and downdraft. These organized storms would then be more likely to mix down higher wind gusts, but are less likely to collapse and produce microbursts. The SPC does mention moderate deep-layer sheer, also favoring the wind aspect (organized clusters and bowing segments with swaths of strong wind gusts possible), but fails to mention the microburst potential, which makes it seem as if the sheer scenario would overcome the latter. Then as we head into Tuesday night, another round of storms will develop to our west and move eastward along the ridge, impacting more of the CWA late at night and heading into the day Wednesday. All the global models show eastern KY being impacted, but exact timing and location is still a bit more unknown as we reach the end of the CAM runs. Therefore, tended to lean a little bit more towards the NBM given the uncertainty, and also to better match up with our neighbors. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 303 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2022 Solutions appear to be in decent agreement today, possibly better than usual with the general evolution of the synoptic pattern through the extended. Aloft, flow will eventually transition from a western trough, eastern ridge to a western ridge, eastern trough pattern by the end of the extended. Flattened eastern CONUS ridge retrogrades westward very slowly through the period as a series of short wave disturbances tracking over the top and eastern periphery of the ridge very slowly nudge the ridge further west with time. Until a more significant trough sweeps southeast into the Ohio Valley next weekend, eastern Kentucky will reside under the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft, near the north or northeast periphery of upper level ridging associated with high pressure centered over the Deep South. Climatologically, this is a favored pattern for summertime convection, including more organized, larger MCS type systems. At this time features supporting periodic convection are weak and timing will be a challenge. Consequently, carried through with previous forecasts generalized PoPs. However, diurnal trends will still be a major influence in overall coverage and likelihood/timing of more widespread activity. As mentioned, a more significant trough drops into the Ohio Valley by next weekend. With a west to northwest flow regime developing over the Ohio Valley, we should expect the better potential of a cold frontal passage through the region, providing at least some modest relief from summer`s heat and humidity, and likely a reprieve from the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2022 VFR to start the 00Z TAF period. Few to Sct Cu along with a slight chance of showers will dissipate after sunset tonight, after which will be looking at light and variable winds overnight with passing high clouds. Some patchy river valley fog is expected early Tuesday morning, with KSJS most likely to have some brief restrictions, although KSME could see some fog overnight if nearby rain back builds over the terminal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This may result in some brief flight restrictions. Winds on Tuesday will be SW 5-10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...HAL/RAY AVIATION...CMF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
849 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperature with increasingly humid conditions are expected to promote increased shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The forecast through this period remains quite tricky and uncertain. Convection is currently firing in the vicinity of the western Great Lakes - more or less in line with the expectation of convection- allowing models (CAMs). The general trend of the 12Z CAMs, as well as 18Z runs of the HRRR and NAM Nest, has been to push this convection across Michigan/the lower Great Lakes overnight, and then ESE following the established ridge/mid-level thicknesses, ahead of an advancing warm front. Timing of a line of showers and some scattered thunderstorms crossing the CWA generally between 12Z and 18Z has been consistent for a few runs as well. Elected to raise PoPs into the likely category during this period for most of the area, given this slightly increased confidence. Presumably, much, if not most of this activity would be elevated in nature, which is also supported by model soundings showing most CAPE aloft. This would reduce chances of severe weather during this period, and with the speed of the line, nothing more than brief, relatively fast-moving downpours would be associated with this morning activity. Then, the hi-res models continue to show a relative dearth of activity between 18Z Tuesday and at least midnight in the warm sector of the surface low crossing southern Ontario into New York State, as low level stabilization and some mid-level capping prevent any redevelopment initially. Confidence continues to be low with this scenario, so will maintain the original chance PoPs already in place. However, if current trends continue, the afternoon and evening hours may end up being mostly dry. No major changes were made to temperatures and dew points tonight and Tuesday. Both will increase notably behind the warm front, leading to a much stickier environment. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... Uncertainty continues through this period, as a cold front associated with the northeast low sinks into the heart of the CWA by 12Z Wednesday. The arrival of another shortwave trough in the continued northwest flow, plus the possible assistance of a low- level jet, could fire another round of convection overnight along the front. A severe weather threat, mainly in the form of wind gusts, could materialize if convection becomes surface-based. Also, the continued presence of 2 inch plus PWAT air, especially in the southwestern CWA, could lead to a heavy rainfall/isolated flash flood threat, especially in urbanized areas, despite the recent dry weather. However, some CAMs show this process occurring further to the west in what could be richer instability. With confidence still shaky in the overall scenario, elected to not raise PoPs at this time, but the situation will need to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper ridge over the Central Plains and the broad upper trough over the northeast U.S. will remain fairly parked through the work week, resulting in continued northwest flow over the Upper Ohio River Valley. Periodic shortwaves are expected to cross the region within the northwest flow through the week and promote shower and thunderstorm chances. Similar to Tuesday, the location for most likely storm development and the potential for storms to become severe will be predicated on evolution of prior day`s convection and positioning of residual surface boundaries. Temperature will remain near seasonal averages during this period while enough moisture advection should maintain a humid airmass. A more pronounced shortwave will likely cross the region Friday and deepen the upper trough over the area heading into the weekend. This should shunt precipitation south of the region as high pressure builds in from the north, returning dry and less humid conditions for the weekend. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR and light SE wind is expected through Tue mrng as high pres moves east of the area. Increasing clouds are expected by erly Tue as wind veers to the SW with a warm front. An MCS is progged to move SE across the Midwest tonight. Current indications are tstms should track mainly W of the area twd the most favorable instability, with a few shra across the Upr OH Vly region. Included a TEMPO for this scenario. Redevelopment of tstms is expected Tue aftn with an approaching cdfnt. .Outlook... Periodic restrictions in shra/ts are psbl Tue night into early Wed with a cdfnt. Periodic restrictions and shra/ts chcs are then expected thru Fri as the front becomes stationary. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Key Messages: 1) Mainly isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and valleys into this evening. 2) Potential upturn in convection on Tuesday as moisture increases. Relatively down day for convection across the area, as low level moisture has mixed out somewhat at many locations, with surface dewpoints falling into the u30s/40s over the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor, where e-ne winds have ushered in more stable air from nern CO. For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, storm activity looks fairly isolated, limited mainly to the mountains and adjacent valleys. Weakening convection may drift toward I-25 this evening, though with pocket of rather meager instability (CAPE around 500 J/KG), not expecting widespread or particularly strong storms, though latest HRRR does bring some 40-50 dBZ echoes across El Paso county in the 7-10 pm timeframe. Main impact on any planned fireworks this evening may end up being briefly gusty/erratic outflow winds, with at least a 30 min to 1 hr period of gusts in the 25-35 mph range near any dissipating storms. Storms then die by midnight, though again some lighter showers may linger along the Continental Divide, as slug of deeper moisture over wrn NM rotates northward. On Tuesday, an upturn in convective chances is expected as deeper moisture over wrn NM/sern AZ shifts northward into Colorado during the day. Best coverage of storms will be over the mountains/valleys, as weak wave embedded within the moisture stream lifts northward into the central mountains by late afternoon. Some threat of flash flooding returns with the moisture as well, especially Hayden and Decker burn scars where moisture and lift look strongest. Models show a couple waves of convection moving northward through the I-25 corridor in the afternoon, though choppy surface wind field and developing downslope wly winds late may yield at mainly windy storms with low/moderate rain rates. Max temps Tuesday will continue warm to hot at most locations, with little change from Monday`s maxes expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 Key messages: 1) Tuesday evening, scattered PM thunderstorms will linger for several locations through the early morning hours on Wednesday, mainly over the plains. A few stronger storms could produce flash flooding in urbanized areas, as well strong and gusty outflow winds to 60 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter. 2) Widely scattered PM thunderstorms will be possible over the most areas from Wednesday through Thursday. For Thursday, there will be an increase in the potential for stronger to severe thunderstorms, especially over the southern plains and eastern mountains. 3) PM storms will be more isolated on Friday through Saturday, mainly over mountains. Chances for PM thunderstorms will increase for all areas Sunday through next Monday. Flash flooding will be possible, especially over burn scars and urban areas. 3) A slight cooling trend will occur Wednesday through Thursday, then becoming much warmer Friday through Sunday, followed by a slight cooling trend early next week. Detailed discussion: Tuesday evening through Wednesday... When analyzing the latest CAMs, the HRRR shows most of the convection being confined to the mountains and San Luis Valley throughout the evening and up until midnight, with some isolated cells over the plains. In comparison, the NAM3km shows more isolated thunderstorm activity, yet more so over the plains and not the mountains. The NSSL, ARW and FV3 tend to agree more with the NAM3km that remaining showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated in nature and over the plains, with very little activity in the mountains, however, the RAP13 does reflect more of what the HRRR is displaying. Instability does look to be greater over the plains right around the 6 to 9 PM timeframe, with an area of CAPE over 2400 J/kg that will be located over the US-50 in Bent and Prowers County, as well as higher shear over the northern I-25 corridor of up to 42 kts in El Paso County. Steeper lapse rates of approximately 7 to 8.5 C/km will also be present over the plains. Given these parameters, if there is enough recycled mid-level moisture still in place, a stronger to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. A caveat to this will be that lower level moisture will be lacking as a surface low to the northeast keeps a SSW`ly wind in place over most of the CWA and allows for mixing of drier air and increased inhibition. Given the soundings which show a higher LCL and inverted V profile, as well as favorable DCAPE of up to 1300 J/kg over the central plains, main threat to any stronger or possibly severe storms will be strong and gusty outflow winds, which may exceed 60 mph. Elevated cores may also result in hail, and some of the hail could become larger over the central and eastern plains where models indicate that higher CAPE will exist. Everything looks to weaken by midnight and possibly only a few showers or isolated thunderstorms will remain into the early morning on Wednesday. Low temperatures for Monday night will be generally in the 60s for the plains, to the 40s and 50s for high country. On Wednesday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will begin to fire again over the mountains as the long wave troughing upstream slowly inches closer to the northwestern CONUS. As this does, the ridge will also slowly build and help to draw up more mid level moisture and the monsoonal plume will slightly shift back to the west. Thunderstorms may occur over the plains, but be much more isolated. The troughing in the longwave pattern will begin a slight cooldown over the region. Weak mid-level flow could also allow for some of the storms to become stationary over the mountains and result in flash flooding, especially over burn scar areas. Thursday... Ensembles and deterministic models have continued to be consistent for the past several days, showing long wave troughing over the northwestern CONUS remaining nearly stationary and keeping the ridge over central CONUS. As the ridge overhead begins to flatten slightly, along with weak perturbations moving through in the longwave troughing upstream, the monsoonal moisture plume will shift back to being more over southeast Colorado, which will provide more widely scattered to numerous PM thunderstorms to develop over most areas of the CWA for Thursday. As troughing upstream helps to weaken the ridge and also allow for more moisture to move in over the region, there will be even a further cooldown for maximum temperatures. Instability looks to be increased over the region with higher CAPE values well over 2000 J/kg over the eastern mountains and adjacent plains. Due to this, there will be a greater threat of thunderstorms becoming severe, especially over the aforementioned locations. With the enhancement of mid-level moisture over the mountains coupled with weak shear, there will also be a higher risk of stronger storms remaining nearly stationary over portions of the mountains. This could result in potential flash flooding, especially over burn scar areas, during the afternoon and evening hours. Friday through Saturday... Models have been consistent with a strengthening ridge over the region. By Friday, as the upper level high over western Texas begins to slightly retrograde further back to the west, the moisture plume will also shift back to the west with a more north to south orientation of the ridge axis and keep any thunderstorm initiation confined to the mountains with a more northward mid-level flow. There will continue to be possible flash flooding concerns over the burn scars due to weaker mid level shear, however, given how isolated thunderstorm activity will be, this risk will be very low. Saturday will be very similar, with a slighter chance of thunderstorms over the plains and storms being more isolated over the mountains and confined mostly to the central mountains. Temperatures for both days will be much warmer under the strengthening ridge with near 600 dm heights centered over western Colorado showing up in the deterministic models by Saturday. This will result in temperatures well above the seasonal average for this time of year over all of the CWA. Sunday through Monday... The ECMWF is beginning to align better with what the GFS has been showing with regards to the longwave pattern during this period in the forecast. There will be slight troughing moving down over the northwestern CONUS which will help to force a finger of the subtropical jet to move in ahead of it over the Great Basin and extend over the state of Wyoming. This will allow for the monsoonal moisture plume to become squashed and positioned right over southeast Colorado, giving the CWA a better chance of PM thunderstorms, including over the plains. The enhanced southerly flow in the lower levels will also keep very warm temperatures in place. Ensembles show that Sunday may be just as warm as Sunday, with near triple digit heat over the plains. There is a bit more variance between the deterministic models with how the trough progresses, where the ECMWF tends to drop it further to the south on Monday, which may suppress thunderstorm activity further to the south, while the GFS does not have this trough deepening quite as much and keeps the monsoonal moisture plume over Colorado, with a better chance of thunderstorms for all areas of the CWA. Although, there is more certainty at this point after looking at the pattern and ensemble guidance, which shows that temperatures will begin a slight cooling trend by early next week, returning closer to the seasonal average. -Stewey && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 336 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 VFR the next 24 hrs, with afternoon/evening convection continuing. Will continue the vcts at KALS until 02z, where chance of storms is greatest, while keeping just a vcsh at KCOS, as most tsra may stay closer to the higher terrain north and west of the terminal. Lowest chance of a vcsh is at KPUB, and will keep mention out of the forecast, though a period of gusty/erratic outflow winds is likely here and at KCOS/KALS until 02z. Skies clear overnight, then a potential increase in shower and thunderstorm chances is forecast for Tuesday, with perhaps an early start of 17z-19z for convection. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...STEWARD AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
232 PM MST Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Tuesday through Friday there will be lower coverage of showers and storms. Storms that develop will be mainly limited to areas near the Mexico and New Mexico borders with afternoon temperatures gradually warming. Storm activity should gradually increase again next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday. Showers and storms continue to move from south to north through southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Hi-res models have had difficulty resolving the evolution of this activity so far today and the latest RAP analysis seems to be doing the best in handling the location of convection but less so in the intensity. As such, best chances should remain across much of southeast Arizona through around 5 PM to 7 PM. This area shifts northward into central AZ as a shortwave embedded in the southerly flow lifts across the area going into tonight. This would leave the best chances for Tucson to see any convection through 7 PM this evening. RAP mesoanalysis continues to suggest a nose of 1.5" PWAT values nudging into east central Pima County where the largest coverage of activity is right now along with widespread SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. These are producing some impressive rainfall rates but luckily storm motion continues to be between 15-20 mph. Localized flooding could be an issue mainly in the typical trouble spots along with gusty, erratic winds. With so many folks outside this evening, lightning remains a high concern with the coverage of storms expected. When you can hear thunder, it is time to take shelter in a car or building until the storm passes. Overnight tonight, PWAT levels drop to around an inch or less across southeast Arizona leading to a period of low-end monsoon activity through later this week. Mid-level ridge will remain centered well to the east over the southeastern U.S. through the Thursday/Friday time frame with a persistent trough off the West Coast. The ridge will begin to shift westward Friday into the weekend as the trough weakens and lifts north of the ridge. Current forecast runs 10-25 percent chances for showers and storms each afternoon Tuesday through Friday for areas mainly east and south of Tucson. The exception will be the White Mtns which will continue to run 35-45 percent chances through mid-week. An uptick in rain chances is possible this upcoming weekend as the ridge could take a more favorable position. As heights rise later in the week, temps will also rise as a result with max temps coming back up above normal Friday onward. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z. Through 05/05Z, SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-9k ft AGL and SCT SHRA/TSRA possible. Diminishing clouds and shower/storm activity aft 05/05Z. Erratic SFC wind gusts and outflows in excess of 40 kts possible with TSRA during the afternoon/evening hours. Otherwise, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts, favoring a southerly direction during the afternoon hours and variable in direction at other times. Lower coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected for Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoon moisture will come down for the next several days keeping RH values between 15-25 percent over the lower elevations each afternoon. Lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be the result through Friday with the focus east and south of Tucson. An upswing in activity is expected again late this upcoming weekend. Any storm will carry the threats of lightning, strong wind gusts and localized flooding. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Guillet Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at