Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/02/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
712 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .UPDATE... Looking ahead through tomorrow, the area generally remains in the moisture plume and while CAPE is limited, we should break through with heating. While POPs are again highest in the NW, can`t rule out isolated SHRA or TSTMs anywhere in the area and have gone ahead and updated to shown POPs AOA 10 areawide with a mention of those <20 POPs in forecasts. Again, with inverted V soundings and minimal CAPE, occasional lighting, strong downburst winds and heavy downpours would be the main threats. && .AVIATION...00Z TAFS... ISO to SCT TSTMS will favor the northwest Panhandles with DHT and GUY having greatest chance for impacts this evening and again late Sat aftn and evening. That said, CHCs of seeing MVFR conditions with these high based storms at any site is very low. Therefore while some timing of storms in the area is indicated in TAFS, the CIGs and VIS are not shown to be restricted during these windows. That said, heavy downpours would certainly produce at least MVFR conditions if a site took a direct hit. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will remain VFR through the period with no aviation concerns. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Saturday Night... 19z WV satellite shows a weak upper ridge centered over the southern Panhandles with flow rotating around this feature over NM and the far northwestern Panhandles. At the surface, a trough has stalled in our CWA, with northerly winds and temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s north of this feature and generally westerly winds with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s south of this feature. Dewpoints are in the 50s across the forecast area. Visible satellite reveals few cumulus as of yet aside from a small area in western Dallam/Hartley Counties. This afternoon into tonight, with surface dewpoints in the 50s and some mid level moisture present - particularly in the northwest where 700mb theta-E is progged to be around or greater than 340K - showers and thunderstorms may develop in the northern Panhandles or survive the trek eastward from the higher terrain to our west. Surface to bulk shear values are low at 30 knots or less, so am not expecting much in the way of organized convection, with isolated to clustered cells favored. Similarly, modest shear should keep hail risk from becoming too prominent, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg supporting perhaps a quarter size hail report. Primary concern looks to be damaging wind gusts to 70 mph as, while 50s surface dewpoints are present, large surface dewpoint depressions given temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s have led to DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. As for timing, most aggressive guidance all day has been the HRRR but, with nothing more than flat cumulus yet to develop, am inclined to go with other guidance that largely depicts most convection occurring around or after 6pm. Tomorrow, with the influence of the upper ridge still present, potential thunderstorm recurrence will once again largely be confined to the northern Panhandles. Highs will rise to the 90s as southerly surface winds return to the CWA. Ferguson LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Dry through July 4th then precip chances return mid week. As high pressure continues to dominate the area, the Panhandles look to remain dry from Sunday through Tuesday morning. Several GEFS and a few EC ensemble members do show some variations in pops on Sunday evening able to get into the Panhandles. However, for now have retained NBM thinking the high will mostly contain thunderstorms to the west of the area in NM. There may be a storm that can clip the very far northwest corner of Cimarron County Sunday afternoon. Sunday will need to be monitored further if the center of the high shifts eastward, allowing for precip to make it into the area. A similar situation looks to be on tap for Monday where the high looks to keep precip just east of the Panhandles while several ensemble members hint the high could be shifted enough for precip. By Tuesday, the high does look to finally shift and tilt enough for precip from the mountains to make it into the northwestern Panhandles. This position of the high is forecast to remain and allow for continued afternoon to evening storms in the west and northwest through Thursday. Forecast soundings show inverted V soundings prevalent through the extended. Thus, there is will likely be a persistent low chance for a storm to produce gusty to damaging winds. Beat && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
841 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Deep moisture will remain over the Southeast supporting daily chances of showers and thunderstorms into next week. Cloud cover and showers will keep temperatures a little below normal through the weekend, returning to near normal for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Elongated flat upper ridge axis stretched across the southern tier of states to offshore the SE US, with a couple of notable embedded weaknesses/upper vorts, one near the SC coast and one near upstate SC/W NC. A surface low is currently along the S SC coast tracking slowly to the NE, while a surface ridge axis stretches west across from E NC across central SC into the CSRA. A very moist atmosphere remains in place with PW values over 2 inches. Latest radar loops indicates convective activity weakening and gradually dissipating with loss of heating and stabilization from earlier rains, with some patchy showers and remnant patches of light rain still lingering. Will expect most of this activity to dissipate later this evening. The surface low is expected to continue tracking to the NE up the coast overnight. Best moisture transport and lift ahead of the upper and surface lows will favor the central and north coast for precipitation tonight, with activity expected to remain east of our forecast area (FA). Satellite water vapor loops indicate less cloud cover and some mid level drier air just to our north, which appears will shift down into at least the northern portion of our FA tonight. Moist low levels are expected to promote low cloud development tonight. Fog possible but the extent of which is uncertain and dependent on status of lingering mid/upper level cloud cover. With the drier air aloft drifting south into the northern FA tonight, fog may be more favored across northern areas, which is depicted in latest HRRR run. Will indicate areas of fog up there. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with relatively little temp change overnight, just slowly falling temps, and light winds. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday night: Surface low pressure will shift further east as an upper ridge and drier air push in from our west. This will limit convective coverage across the western portions of the forecast area in the afternoon. The higher coverage is expected in the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA where PWATs remain high around 1.8-1.9 inches. A few showers may be ongoing Saturday morning along the coastal plain, closer to the surface low. Coverage should increase through the day with daytime heating and surface convergence focused near the I-95 corridor. We anticipate only isolated convective coverage along and north/west of I-20 during the early afternoon. However outflow from convection in the higher terrain to the west may push into the Midlands in the late afternoon or evening colliding with outflows from the east. This will lead to the highest rainfall chances for western areas being late in the day. The threat of severe weather is low due to weak CAPE and weak deep layer shear values but if a deep thunderstorm develops further west in the drier air its possible that strong downburst winds may develop. Convection will diminish through the evening as the low moves further away from the region and daytime heating is lost. Highs will be near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Sunday and Sunday night: An upper level trough will swing into the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Southerly flow into the Southeast will allow PWAT values to rise to around 2.0 inches during the afternoon. The warm, moist airmass and convergence along a Piedmont Trough will allow scattered convection to develop during the afternoon. The stronger support from the upper trough will be north of the forecast area, promoting higher convective coverage to the north. 0-6km and effective layer shear values below 10 kts indicates that the potential for organized convection is low. With PWAT values around 2 inches it will also be difficult to get strong downburst winds. Overall the severe weather threat appears low but we cannot rule out an isolated severe storm. Some showers may linger into the overnight hours but activity will generally diminish. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly warmer for highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures through this period should be near to slightly above normal with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridging over the Southern Plains and Southeast is favored for much of the long term. Atmospheric moisture is expected to remain above normal with mean PWAT values from ensembles around 2 inches, at or above the climatological 90th percentile. Upper level ridging, deep moisture and lack of upper level support suggests a typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon thunderstorms and near normal temperatures through Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough will move through the Ohio Valley late in the period and bring a bit more upper forcing to the region which may enhance rain chances late in the week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR in the near term this evening, but deteriorating CIGS expected tonight. Latest radar loops indicates convective activity weakening and gradually dissipating with loss of heating and stabilization from earlier rains, with some patchy showers and remnant patches of light rain still lingering. Will expect most of this activity to dissipate later this evening. 00Z obs indicating VFR with mainly mid level cloud cover. Nocturnal effects in a moist environment expected to favor stratus development tonight. Guidance indicating IFR to LIFR CIGs developing. Fog also possible but the extent of which is uncertain and dependent on status of lingering mid/upper level cloud cover. Satellite water vapor imagery indicates some dry air aloft could shift down into the northern or central FA late tonight, and could promote some fog. For now, kept VSBYs MVFR, but indicated LIFR CIGs, per a preponderance of the guidance along with general persistence in the pattern noting widespread stratus developed late night and lingered into this morning. Expect a gradual return to VFR Saturday morning with diurnal heating. As the coastal upper and surface low shift to our E/NE Saturday, some slightly drier air and some weak NVA will work southward into a good part of our FA, mainly north. So, convective coverage over our FA is expected to be less than today and favor southern and eastern areas. For now, went with VCSH at OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of late night/early morning stratus and possibly some fog. Increasing chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday/Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 issued for our eastern counties till 10 PM this evening. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Forecast concerns today deal with severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Currently...Low pressure analyzed near Casper this afternoon...with a stationary boundary extending south from the low from Casper to Laramie to Denver. East of this front...dewpoints being observed in the mid to upper 50s across the Panhandle and southeast Wyoming plains with south to southeast surface winds. Current RAP guidance showing surface based CAPE around 2000 J/KG across northern Goshen County with 1500 J/KG extending up into Converse County. Mesoscale guidance showing a supercell developing over Converse County shortly...moving southeast into Goshen County by 4-5PM. 0-6km shear pretty good this afternoon with 40-50kts forecast. Looks like we will have a few severe storms through the mid afternoon and early evening. HRRR simulated radar holds onto storms until roughly 04Z tonight before storms move east. Somewhat drier Saturday as PWATS lower to around Carbon County around 0.5 inches...but still kin of rich in the Panhandle around 1.0 inches. Could be dealing with severe convection again Saturday afternoon...but less than today. Possibly another surge in moisture for Sunday as GFS PWATs rise again. Look for another round of showers and storms Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 No major changes to the extended forecast since the last update. Tweaked PoPs upward from NBM guidance to maintain slight chance wording in the forecast for areas east of the Laramie range on Monday and Tuesday. Previous Discussion: Medium to long range models in good agreement with the overall weather pattern next week, so forecast confidence is actually pretty high for this far out. Weather pattern shown by current models is typical of July with southwest flow aloft and a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Laramie Range. Models show the subtropical upper level high centered across the southern Great Plains/Gulf Coastline Sunday through Tuesday with very little movement noted each day. A high amplitude ridge axis will extend northwest from the center of the high towards western Canada. This should result in near normal or slightly warmer than normal temperatures for the High Plains in addition to keeping any Pacific energy near the Pacific NW coastline. The main upper level low off the coast of Washington will keep the Pac NW unsettled and cool through the forecast period due to an upstream blocking pattern. Afternoon high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s should continue through early next week with maybe a slight warming trend into Tuesday and Wednesday. Models continue to show a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Laramie Range/I-25 corridor as PW`S will range between 0.75 to 1.25 inches each day with upslope return flow expected each day. The main forecast uncertainty will be forcing and with the jet stream far to the north, will have to rely on shortwave energy around the periphery of the upper level high for weak forcing and favorable convective parameters for deep convection. Sunday and Tuesday seem to be the more favorable days for scattered to numerous thunderstorms as a few shortwave disturbances eject northeast around the upper level high. Particularly Tuesday bares watching with ensemble members showing a better environment. Any changes to the previous forecast are pretty subtle with some tweaks in POP and T-storm coverage. Further out, model consensus is in pretty good agreement showing the potential for record or near record heat by late next week through the 2nd full weekend of July. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a strong 603dm upper level high parked over the High Plains of Colorado and Nebraska/Kansas. The Canadian is also on board, but shows the upper level high a bit further south. Will continue to monitor these trends since forecast 700mb temperatures are currently above 20c for most of the forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 535 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Two bands of showers and thunderstorm will continue to move east this evening across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The first line of thunderstorms have produced severe weather across far eastern Wyoming with mainly gusty winds near KRWL in the afternoon. Activity should push east of KAIA and KSNY by 08z tonight. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected to prevail until 09z Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms may produce brief IFR conditions in heavy rain and strong gusty winds between 00z and 03Z for KCYS and KLAR, and between 00z to 08z for the western Nebraska terminals. Moderate to severe turbulence is also possible in and near thunderstorms. There is a slight chance for some low clouds or fog to develop again early Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to add to the TAF at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Minimal fire weather concerns the next few days as monsoonal moisture remains over the area. Will see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through Monday before moisture gets shunted southeast. Afternoon humidity expected to stay above critical levels during this time with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Much drier Tuesday on as warmer temperatures and drier air filters into the area. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...GCC SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...MN/TJT AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
849 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Overall, a quiet and pleasant evening is setting up across much of Iowa. Drier air in the wake of the weak cold front that passed through has allowed dewpoints to fall into the 50s north, and lower 60s central. Think these areas will have good raditional cooling tonight with sfc high overhead, light winds, and clear mostly clear skies. In fact, will likely see quite a few lows in the upper 50s, maybe a few mid 50s in the cooler locales. Those camping for the holiday weekend will enjoy those readings. Areas of southern IA that received light rainfall today have Tds that remain in the mid/upper 60s. As such, radiation cooling here is likely to lead to at least patchy fog development towards daybreak on Saturday /assuming clouds clear/. Not sure we`ll see dense fog, but will continue to monitor. Finally, based on the latest 00Z guidance that is beginning to trickle in, did slow precipitation arrival times until after sunrise. In fact, the 00Z HRRR is suggesting that many areas will be mostly dry on Saturday. The midshift will take a closer look at this later. Fowle && .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Forecast Highlights: -Showers end this evening, with dry conditions tonight and overnight -Another chance for showers and storms Saturday, mainly scattered in nature, low severe threat -Low end chance for showers and storms Sunday, remaining warm -Active pattern continues through much of next week with many chances for showers and thunderstorms, slightly warmer The overall pattern over the forecast period can be described as quite active, with many different periods of precipitation possibilities to note. The zonal flow pattern looking at the synoptic pattern will largely remain today into Saturday, before a changing as a broad areas of upper-level ridging develops out over the western CONUS, which will have a large influence on the weather pattern this weekend through much of next week. This afternoon and tonight: Light rain showers as depicted by radar continued into the afternoon, impacting the south-central to southern portions of Iowa as the boundary slowly sagged to the south. GOES satellite imagery shows mid to upper level clouds across the majority of the state, though clearing can be seen across the far northwestern portion of the state. Winds have been variable across the state in part due to the boundary and are on the light side given the overall weak flow. Temperatures have been very slow to warm through the day in the mid to upper 70s across the northwest and in the low 70s to the southeast where evaporative cooling from the rainfall has led to slightly cooler conditions. Drying conditions will return for the remainder of the state later this afternoon into tonight, with clouds decreasing for at least the overnight hours before the next chance for showers and storms arrives Saturday morning. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 60s across the state. Saturday/Sunday: Just ahead of the strengthening ridge, a shortwave moving through the Central Plains will lead to additional showers and storms Saturday as moisture advection increases over the region. The overall nature of these storms look to be rather disorganized and scattered across the state per short term guidance. Looking at the HREF ensembles, there seems to be a general agreement on showers and storms off two different boundaries that will merge into the southern and northern parts of the state by mid morning through the remainder of the day. This will likely lead to hit or miss showers and storms, though this may be less so over central Iowa which may favor more on the dry side for the most part. Overall rainfall does not look to be a concern over the area, though conditions are looking rather favorable for heavy rainfall largely south of the state towards Missouri into far southern Iowa near the border. Model soundings suggest PWAT`s around 1.75" with warm cloud depths of 14kft near the IA/MO border, which would be favorable for heavier precipitation totals. WPC guidance this morning has an overall 5% outlook for excessive rainfall over southern Iowa, and higher further south into Missouri. Looking into the severe potential Saturday, instability and shear do not look favorable to develop and maintain any severe storms, with a general thunder outlined per SPC guidance and the main risk being lightning. Temperatures will remain on the slightly cooler side following Friday`s frontal passing, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lingering rain showers and weak storms are suggested to continue into Sunday morning at times per NAM and RAP guidance, though the GFS as well as HREF suggests returning dry weather late Saturday. Therefore cannot rule out the chance for lingering on and off showers and storms at times Sunday, with low PoPs in the forecast to reflect this. Highs are expected in the 80s, paired with dewpoints in the 60s to even low 70s across the southwest. Monday/Independence Day: Another shortwave riding the strengthening ridge may bring a potential MCS through the state through the morning hours Monday. Models continue to be shaky in terms of agreement on the track of this system, with the NAM favoring coverage over the southeastern half of the state while the GFS has widespread coverage across the state Monday morning. The severe threat with this system looks to be rather low, as again shear is minimal given relatively weak flow and capping is looking likely from model soundings. Instability however will be present with warm and moist conditions, with CAPE largely under 1000-1500 J/kg and warmer temperatures increasing into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Looking at rainfall efficiency, potential is there for heavier rainfall at times, with soundings indicating PWAT`S around 2 inches with warm cloud depths of 15kft. Models depict potential rainfall values between 1-3 inches with this system, with WPC highlighting at least western Iowa into Nebraska having the greatest potential to exceed flash flood guidance in the marginal to slight category. An important consideration will be how the rainfall over the weekend will play out, as some areas may be more vulnerable into the week if hit with the heavier rainfall. The good news is that soil moisture is looking good to soak up much of the possible rainfall, and paired with mature crops should lower the hydro threat. Will continue to slowly monitor the trends for any major changes through the next few days. Following the departing system, hit and miss dry conditions are suggested for the remainder of Independence Day, which may complicate any outdoor plans. Tuesday and Beyond: The long term outlook will remain rather active across the region as a series of perturbations move with the dominant ridge overhead. Uncertainty is high given the rather many chances for showers and thunderstorms that long term guidance is suggesting. Main concern will be where the systems through the week set up and impact, as the risk for flooding concerns will likely be higher depending on how the previous systems play out. Right now, guidance suggest periods of heavier rainfall over the north late Tuesday into Wednesday, with more widespread distributions across the state Thursday. Instability will be plenty over the period given the warmer weather, though whether this will be able to be tapped into will depend on if there are any capping concerns or lack of shear that would limit development of storms. Details are expected to come into focus over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are expected to remain into the mid to late week as the upper level ridge moves into the Northern Plains, with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s, warmest across the south/southwest. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/ Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Clearing skies with VFR conditions are expected at all terminals during the overnight. With the sfc high nearly overhead, winds will be light and variable. With said light winds and clearing skies, will need to watch the potential for fog across KOTM. Inserted a TEMPO group from 10z-13z with MVFR fog for now, but some guidance is suggesting IFR or lower VSBYs. Winds will switch southeasterly during the day on Saturday. Low confidence on occurrence/coverage of potential shower or thunderstorm coverage tomorrow morning/afternoon. Inserted VCTS for a few hours at KMCW/KALO as a start, but this will likely need to be fined tuned in upcoming forecasts. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Fowle DISCUSSION...Bury/Krull AVIATION...Fowle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1008 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will crawl north along the South Carolina coast tonight into Saturday bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is possible. After this system moves away from the area early Sunday, scattered thunderstorms and warm temperatures will continue across the Carolinas as Bermuda High Pressure remains offshore. && .UPDATE... High risk of rip currents issued for Brunswick County beaches tomorrow due to increasing swell. Strong longshore in NC with southerly winds increasing ahead of a weak coastal low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Coastal low just offshore of Tybee Island, GA has become more pronounced over the last few hours, and is moving to the southeast. Noticeable swirls have popped up in various windows of the GOES-16 satellite feeds, and in the latest reflectivity loops of KCLX. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has also caught onto this, giving this feature a 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours, per the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. Plenty of asymmetry with this one, with the bulk of the rain to the east and well offshore, while some mid-level dry air infiltrates the western side. This low is ushering some deep layer moisture onshore, providing periodic showers with the occasional rumble of thunder for the coast. Meanwhile, more organized diurnal convection has ignited inland. In both cases, precipitable water values linger in the 2.00- 2.22" range, which is well above the 90% moving average, edging close to the daily max, per SPC sounding climatologies. Mid- and low-level relative humidity values holding steady at or above 90%, with a deep warm cloud layer to boot. Showers and storms are slow in nature, with the cloud layer (LCL-EL) wind only clocking in at 6kts, and Corfidi upshear vectors at 4kts. Throw in long, skinny CAPE profiles in the 1000-1500J/kg range, and you got yourself a list of ingredients for training showers and storms capable of minor flooding. No flooding captured so far today across the forecast area, but this will need to be monitored throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening. Rain coverage decreases tonight, particularly inland. Continued SSE flow allows for another muggy night, with lows in the lower 70s, lining up with the dewpoints. Wouldn`t be surprised to have a low stratus deck build in before dawn Saturday. Coastal low moves slowly to the northeast, tightly hugging the Carolina coast. Atmosphere remains largely unchanged at the coast, albeit perhaps a slight increase in precipitable water (as if it wasn`t already enough). Weather Prediction Center (WPC) puts the coast in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/4) of excessive rainfall. Ponding and minor flooding is possible from training storms. Inland areas may have some reprieve, thanks to some persistent dry air in the 850-700mb layer. Clouds and rain keep high temperatures rather tame, hanging in the upper 80s inland. Shave those values down a few clicks east of I-95. An elevated risk of rip currents continues along all area beaches. With the holiday weekend in full swing, really need to highlight this for awareness.. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The small area of low pressure developing along the South Carolina coastline could be near Cape Fear Saturday evening. Until the low moves farther northeast and away from the area Saturday night, the threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue along and east of where the low tracks. With the exception of the 12z 3km NAM and the latest HRRR runs (16-17z), models didn`t initialize particularly well with this system. WPC has a `marginal` risk for excessive rainfall for the coastal counties on Saturday and across all of the area Sunday. After the low moves away Sunday, a climatological weather pattern will develop early next week with Bermuda High Pressure offshore maintaining a warm, humid, and unstable airmass. An upper level ridge will strengthen over the Mid South early next week, producing a weak north to northwesterly flow at and above 500 mb. This pattern could easily produce waves of showers and t-storms given the low level airmass, and we`re forecasting rather high PoPs: 50-70 percent Sunday, 30-50 percent Sunday night, 50-60 percent Monday, and 30 percent Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The weather pattern will change very little Tuesday through Friday next week. The upper level ridge will remain across the Deep South while a broad longwave trough will remain parked off the East Coast. At the surface a nearly stationary front will linger across the Mid Atlantic. This pattern should support multiple waves of thunderstorms developing along the front as upper level disturbances dive southeastward between the ridge and the offshore trough. Timing on these disturbances isn`t really possible at this time range, but the overall pattern is certainly supportive of thunderstorm clusters most days next week. Given the timing uncertainty, forecast PoPs will remain around 50 percent each day. This could be a really good pattern for adding up significant rainfall across drought-stricken areas of eastern North and South Carolina. Forecast temperatures are near normal each day with mid-upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tropical air mass will bring MVFR ceilings and IFR ceilings inland overnight with dew point depressions below 5 across the region. Some patchy fog is also possible inland where rainfall from previous days will maintain positive moisture flux. A coastal low tracking northward along the SC coast will bring the chance for showers and an isolated storm late tonight and into tomorrow morning. The tropical showers may produce VIS restrictions for coastal terminals. Inland terminals may see an isolated shower tomorrow afternoon. Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR through the weekend, especially at the coast. This due to better chances for afternoon/early evening showers and tstms as well as early morning onshore movement of convection. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...SSE winds pull more southerly by tonight, as a coastal low currently offshore of Tybee Island, GA inches its way up the coastline. Pressure gradient tightens as a result, with winds gusting to the 20-25kts range by Saturday afternoon. Seas currently near 2-3ft, but is expected to increase with the southeasterly swell. Expecting 2-4ft waves closer to the coast, with 4-5ft waves more likely away from shore. May hit Small Craft Advisory thresholds along the North Carolina waters by Saturday afternoon, but it`s a bit too early/borderline to make a definitive call. Perhaps the most important thing to note here is the increased risk of waterspouts. A couple have already occurred earlier today just offshore of SC Lowcountry and the Grand Strand. A very similar atmosphere persists into tonight and Saturday, so this will need to be closely monitored. Saturday Night through Wednesday...The interesting little low moving north along the South Carolina coast could be in the Cape Fear vicinity Saturday evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds on the east side of the circulation are a real potential. The low should continue to move northeastward and away from the area Saturday night. With the exception of the 12z NAM, few models have initialized well with this feature and there isn`t a lot to go on yet with how strong or well-organized it may become. The potential for 6 foot seas could continue through Saturday evening if winds east of the low are strong enough. By Sunday we should get into a typical summertime pattern with Bermuda high pressure offshore and south to southwest winds prevailing across the waters. Models are showing a large number of upper level disturbances dipping south into the Carolinas which should keep the threat for thunderstorms in the forecast most of next week. Seas should consist of an 8 to 9 second southeast swell overlaid with short period south to southwest wind chop, with combined seas averaging 3 feet in height. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ106-108. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ110. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM/DCH/TRA/IGB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf will keep south to southeasterly winds across the coastal waters overnight, with light and variable winds inland. Radar showing scattered showers across the coastal waters. Expect additional development overnight, spreading inland after daybreak Saturday. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected to fall to the lower/mid 70s by daybreak. 08 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ DISCUSSION... For the 07/02/2022 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... Much of the active weather spawned by the tropical disturbance has subsided this evening, although a few showers and MVFR ceilings remain. Generally the evening will be quiet, and perhaps ceilings could improve to 5000 feet before midnight, but this will be short-lived before the next round of showers and storms develop after midnight. Convection will develop over coastal waters before moving north and becoming widespread across the area once again throughout the morning. Periods of SHRA are the primary focus, although -TSRA will be introduced at terminals during the afternoon hours to account for the diurnal uptick in storms we expect this time of year. Rain and storms should begin tapering off towards the end of the forecast period. 11 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]... Low pressure system over SE TX has, as expected, brought widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region today. Mostly light stratiform rain is ongoing this afternoon, apart from some heavier convection across lower Acadiana. Convection should continue through the next few hours, before eventually tapering off around sunset. A few showers may linger thereafter, but for the most part we should see a period of quiet weather tonight into early tomorrow which will hopefully allow the ground to recover some. Tomorrow morning, likely pre-sunrise, showers and thunderstorms look to start firing up once again, first along the coast and then spreading inland through the mid to late morning. CAMS are not in great agreement on how long this next round of convection will last, with the HRRR and RAP keeping most of the region wet through tomorrow afternoon while the NAM wants to dry us out sooner. Regardless, most if not all of the rain should be out of here by sunset tomorrow, just in time for any 4th of July fireworks shows. By the end of the weekend, we return to a more typical pattern as the nearby low dissipates and high pressure begins to build back into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Sunday afternoon, but coverage should be much more typical of a normal summer afternoon rather that what we`re seeing today/tomorrow. Temperature wise, we`ve barely made it out of the 70s today thanks to all the cloud cover, and tomorrow looks like it could be similar. Went with mid 80s for highs tomorrow, but this could end up being too warm if convection hangs around well into the afternoon. Regardless, we start to warm back up by Sunday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s expected once again. 17 LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]... The long range portion of the forecast period currently shows something of a return to a more seasonal pattern as mid/upper-level ridging gradually redevelops over the region. Sfc high pressure remaining centered to our east will help maintain our low-level srly flow off the Gulf, with forecast soundings indicating PWAT values around or slightly above the seasonal norms for early July. While synoptic-scale features for convective initiation look fairly nil, mesoscale features, primarily the afternoon sea breeze, will help fire off showers and storms along with daytime heating, especially across lower Acadiana where moisture is progged to be best. This is especially true starting Tuesday when a plume of deeper moisture is progged to slide across the Atchafalaya Basin. Some development will also be possible near the coast around sunrise as nocturnal maritime activity tries pushing ashore. With the return of building heights aloft, daytime temps will gradually rise through the week, with maxes by late next week back into the upper 90s across interior sern TX. This also means a return of near-criteria heat index values. Stay tuned. 25 MARINE... A surface low over SErn TX will continue to meander inland over the next 24 hours or so, providing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the NWrn Gulf. Ongoing convection will taper off through the evening hours, with a period of quiet weather expected overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop tomorrow morning, likely before sunrise, and continue into the afternoon, eventually tapering off later tomorrow as the low pressure system begins to dissipate. Sunday into next week, a more typical pattern will return with daily scattered showers and thunderstorms, driven by daytime heating. Elevated wind/seas will be possible within any strong storms, both today/tomorrow and next week, however, generally light winds and seas are anticipated through the period otherwise. 17 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Regional satellite imagery augmented by recent RAP data show the instability axis is well downstate across southern Illinois and Indiana. Accordingly, opted to remove the thunder mention from our forecast this evening with only a few showers expected to remain south of I-80 over the next few hours. As mentioned in the Short Term Discussion below, we`ll have to watch for fog development overnight as clouds clear, particularly along and south of Interstate 80 where boundary layer moisture remains high and winds will become stagnant. For now, will continue to withhold mention in the official forecast in favor of watching trends. Updated products have been sent. Borchardt && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Through Tonight... Areas of showers with embedded, scattered-coverage thunderstorms are expected to continue the rest of this afternoon, with the thunder mainly along and south of I-80. Heavy downpours and at times frequent lighting are the main points to note with any storms. One or two deeper storm cores with some gusty winds still cannot be 100 percent ruled out from 330-7 P.M. primarily along and south of the Kankakee River Valley, but because of the substantial midday cloudiness, marked destabilization for a severe threat is a low outcome possibility. Otherwise, there also is a chance for fog overnight where it had rained today. A slow moving cold front is inching its way south through the region early this afternoon. This true wind shift part of this front, aided in part by the lake, is around I-80 as of 2 PM (though outflow is even further south), while the more noteworthy dew point drop is near I-90. The wind shift and dew points into the upper 60s to around 70 along it are the low-level focus. Aloft, broad upper level ascent is over the region within a right entrance region of a 100 kt jet, and a couple short wave impulses (possibly convectively-enhanced) are traversing the region. One is over the eastern CWA as of 2 PM and helped to drive an initial cluster of storms exiting into north central Indiana, while a little stronger/broader short wave is in south central Iowa associated with a 50-60 kt 500 mb speed maximum. As this stronger wave translates east, it will have the potential to spread scattered showers further north during the latter half of the afternoon, including to Rockford and Chicago, though the thunder potential should mainly remain south of I-80 due to limited instability. MUCAPE values from this morning of around 1,000 J/kg and lapse rates around 8C/km in the 700-550 mb layer as sampled by the 12Z DVN sounding have been cut into by the earlier thunderstorm activity. The elevated instability likely is not entirely gone, and the RAP SFCOA mesoanalysis supports that idea, but the potential for more robust updrafts north of I-80 appears quite limited even though these areas are presently warmer due to a lack of rain and thicker clouds today. As for further south, the strongest convergence of the front will have shifted south of the CWA by after 3 PM, helped in part due to outflow from earlier storms. So the expectations are that storms will remain largely loosely organized, due to limited focus and a marginal effective component to the deep layer shear (due to limited instability). Convective activity should be shifting east and south of the CWA by 8 P.M. or so, with light winds under a 1016 mb high pressure. With the rain from today in the southern half of the forecast area and lingering high dew points in this region, it`s possible there could be some fog if clearing occurs. A few high-resolution models do show this, though some indicate no visibility restriction at all. Confidence overall is low in any fog, though a widespread dense event is presently not expected. MTF && .LONG TERM... Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Saturday through Friday... Primary forecast concern is thunderstorm chances for the end of the holiday weekend, on Monday, with thunderstorm chances continuing all of next week. While Saturday and Sunday are looking generally dry, a weak wave may lead to isolated showers across southern WI Saturday afternoon and another wave may bring a few showers to far northwest IL early Sunday morning. Opted to add a slight chance for showers early Sunday morning, though confidence is fairly low. There may be another chance for isolated showers across the southern cwa Sunday afternoon and maintained slight chance pops for the south but confidence here is also low. Most of the area will stay dry through Sunday evening. High temps are likely to reach the mid to upper 80s both days, though lake breezes both afternoons will keep the lakeshore areas cooler. By late Sunday night/early Monday morning, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the MN/IA area and move toward the area. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for timing/location and strengthen with this activity. However, slight chance mention for thunderstorms prior to daybreak Monday morning is reasonable. Its also possible that this activity dissipates prior to reaching the area, leaving Monday morning drier but with a better chance of afternoon/evening convection. Models have been in good agreement with several rounds of convection nearby or across the local area through the middle/end of next week and those trends continue. Timing becomes more problematic as each wave will have impacts on the next. While there will be dry periods, blended chance pops from Monday onward are necessary given the pattern and uncertainty. Blended temps have also increased quite a bit and these will be completely dependent on cloud cover/precip timing/ coverage. But given the proximity to the ridge, made no changes to the blended guidance. Also of note with the precipitation chances next week, is the potential for several rounds of heavy rain. Precipitable water values reach 2+ inches on Monday and more or less stay around or over 2 inches through Thursday. Once one round drops heavy rain, it will just increase the dewpoints, maintaining the moist atmosphere and allowing the next wave to have plenty to work with. Thus, despite the developing drought conditions and very low river levels, if several rounds of heavy rain materialize, there will be at least a localized flooding potential. In addition, depending on time of day, strong/severe thunderstorms may also be possible. cms && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Aviation Forecast Concerns: * Showers ending south of the terminals early this evening. * Light/variable winds into Saturday, with an eventual shift to an easterly component by early afternoon with lake enhancement. * Fog potential mainly south of the terminals overnight where wet ground and higher boundary layer moisture reside. Effective cold frontal boundary has pushed well south of the terminals early this evening, shifting greatest shower and thunderstorm potential into downstate IL/IN. A mid-level disturbance was tracking east across northern IL, producing some scattered lighter showers that were passing south of the terminals, closest to GYY. Passage of this wave should allow an overall decrease in cloud cover through mid-late evening. Weak surface pressure gradient has allowed winds to become largely light/variable especially across the Chicago metro terminals, and this will continue to be the case into mid-evening before winds take on a light west-northwesterly component overnight. Weak surface high pressure will drift across the area into Saturday, and will maintaining light/variable nature of winds. Should see an eventual shift to the east by early afternoon as a lake breeze develops, though timing of this shift is still of somewhat low confidence. Winds should generally be less than 10 kts however. With the high sliding past the area Saturday evening, winds should become light southeasterly. South of the terminals where rain was more widespread today, the combination of wet ground, light winds and clearing skies will likely allow for patchy fog development overnight. GYY could be close to the northern periphery of better fog potential, though current thinking is that better chances of lower visibility will be south/southeast of there. Ratzer && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Isolated showers continued across southeast NE and southwest IA at mid afternoon, although this activity will end altogether in the next handful of hours. Rainfall was quite variable across the forecast area over the previous 24 hours. Some areas got significant rainfall, and others got little if any rain at all. The heaviest band occurred from near Albion, southeastward in a 10-15 mile wide band that also eventually clipped northern portions of the Omaha metro area with 1-2" of rain. For tonight, much of the evening should be dry. Models suggest spotty thunderstorms may begin developing near the KS/NE border by 03-05z, becoming numerous after midnight, thus will carry likely pops in southeast NE accordingly. The forecast area remains in risk of general storms, so the overall severe risk is low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in southeast NE though, and while WPC has that area in a slight risk of excessive heavy rainfall, flooding is not expected in our area, with the heaviest and possible flooding rains expected in northeast KS. Meanwhile, the remnants of stronger storms moving out of central SD may move into northeast NE after midnight as well, but also weaken as they push into our area. Saturday could very well end up much like today with scattered morning showers/thundershowers. Will maintain likely pops in southeast NE/southwest IA, but 30-50% elsewhere. And then models also suggest lower precipitation chances during the afternoon, and it may very well be dry. Highs Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s depending on location. For Saturday night, the long-range 12z HRRR suggested that a strong convective complex could be moving into northeast NE by late evening into the early overnight. Thus, SPC placed that area in a marginal risk for severe storms. But several other models are actually dry Saturday night, and still a handful of other CAMs suggest there`s at least a 20-30% of storms across the forecast area. Confidence is pretty low in the eventual outcome. And the same could be said for Sunday. Large scale models are generally dry, but NBM holds onto a 20-30% chance of storms. Sunday does get a little warmer with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Models do indicate another wave moving out of the Rockies Sunday night, with a more decent signal for scattered thunderstorms across the region, and SPC has placed the entire forecast area in another marginal risk for severe storms. WPC will also have at least the northern half of the forecast area in a slight risk for excessive heavy rainfall. By Monday, widespread hot weather again develops with highs in the mid to upper 90s. This heat continues into at least Tuesday, but 90s also continue through the remainder of the week, well above normal, but below any records. Heat index Monday and Tuesday could range 102-107 each afternoon, so we may have to eventually consider issuing heat advisories for the area. Storm chances become somewhat uncertain in the extended periods, but NBM indicates a daily chance of rain. Again, not that the week will be a washout, but we`ll have few chances of storms every day, although confidence in the timing and location continues to be quite low. While we do not issue air quality alerts, wanted to pass along that the Lincoln/Lancaster Health Department has issued an air quality advisory for sensitive populations for fireworks smoke for the evenings of July 3 and July 4. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Rain and thunderstorms are expecting during the TAF period but confidence is low in both timing and location. CAM models have consistently placed a band of rain showers across southeastern Nebraska. However, there are enough other model runs that more widespread precipitation across the forecast area can`t be ruled out. The most likely timeframe for precipitation is between 12 and 18Z. MVFR ceilings are forecast in far southeast Nebraska (including KLNK) between 12Z and 21Z. After 18Z, ceilings should begin to lift and scatter out. Winds are forecast to stay under 15 kts and should primarily be from the east. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Fajman