Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/02/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
712 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Looking ahead through tomorrow, the area generally remains in the
moisture plume and while CAPE is limited, we should break through
with heating. While POPs are again highest in the NW, can`t rule
out isolated SHRA or TSTMs anywhere in the area and have gone
ahead and updated to shown POPs AOA 10 areawide with a mention of
those <20 POPs in forecasts. Again, with inverted V soundings and
minimal CAPE, occasional lighting, strong downburst winds and
heavy downpours would be the main threats.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
ISO to SCT TSTMS will favor the northwest Panhandles with DHT and
GUY having greatest chance for impacts this evening and again late
Sat aftn and evening. That said, CHCs of seeing MVFR conditions
with these high based storms at any site is very low. Therefore
while some timing of storms in the area is indicated in TAFS, the
CIGs and VIS are not shown to be restricted during these windows.
That said, heavy downpours would certainly produce at least MVFR
conditions if a site took a direct hit. Outside of thunderstorms,
conditions will remain VFR through the period with no aviation
concerns.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/
SHORT TERM...This Afternoon through Saturday Night...
19z WV satellite shows a weak upper ridge centered over the southern
Panhandles with flow rotating around this feature over NM and the
far northwestern Panhandles. At the surface, a trough has stalled in
our CWA, with northerly winds and temperatures in the mid 80s to
lower 90s north of this feature and generally westerly winds with
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s south of this feature.
Dewpoints are in the 50s across the forecast area. Visible satellite
reveals few cumulus as of yet aside from a small area in western
Dallam/Hartley Counties.
This afternoon into tonight, with surface dewpoints in the 50s and
some mid level moisture present - particularly in the northwest
where 700mb theta-E is progged to be around or greater than 340K -
showers and thunderstorms may develop in the northern Panhandles or
survive the trek eastward from the higher terrain to our west.
Surface to bulk shear values are low at 30 knots or less, so am not
expecting much in the way of organized convection, with isolated to
clustered cells favored. Similarly, modest shear should keep hail
risk from becoming too prominent, with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
supporting perhaps a quarter size hail report. Primary concern looks
to be damaging wind gusts to 70 mph as, while 50s surface dewpoints
are present, large surface dewpoint depressions given temperatures
in the upper 80s to 90s have led to DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg.
As for timing, most aggressive guidance all day has been the HRRR
but, with nothing more than flat cumulus yet to develop, am inclined
to go with other guidance that largely depicts most convection
occurring around or after 6pm.
Tomorrow, with the influence of the upper ridge still present,
potential thunderstorm recurrence will once again largely be
confined to the northern Panhandles. Highs will rise to the 90s as
southerly surface winds return to the CWA.
Ferguson
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Dry through July 4th then precip chances return mid week.
As high pressure continues to dominate the area, the Panhandles
look to remain dry from Sunday through Tuesday morning. Several
GEFS and a few EC ensemble members do show some variations in
pops on Sunday evening able to get into the Panhandles. However,
for now have retained NBM thinking the high will mostly contain
thunderstorms to the west of the area in NM. There may be a storm
that can clip the very far northwest corner of Cimarron County
Sunday afternoon. Sunday will need to be monitored further if the
center of the high shifts eastward, allowing for precip to make it
into the area. A similar situation looks to be on tap for Monday
where the high looks to keep precip just east of the Panhandles
while several ensemble members hint the high could be shifted
enough for precip. By Tuesday, the high does look to finally shift
and tilt enough for precip from the mountains to make it into the
northwestern Panhandles. This position of the high is forecast to
remain and allow for continued afternoon to evening storms in the
west and northwest through Thursday. Forecast soundings show
inverted V soundings prevalent through the extended. Thus, there
is will likely be a persistent low chance for a storm to produce
gusty to damaging winds.
Beat
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
841 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep moisture will remain over the Southeast supporting daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms into next week. Cloud cover
and showers will keep temperatures a little below normal
through the weekend, returning to near normal for next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Elongated flat upper ridge axis stretched across the southern
tier of states to offshore the SE US, with a couple of notable
embedded weaknesses/upper vorts, one near the SC coast and one
near upstate SC/W NC. A surface low is currently along the S SC
coast tracking slowly to the NE, while a surface ridge axis
stretches west across from E NC across central SC into the CSRA.
A very moist atmosphere remains in place with PW values over 2
inches. Latest radar loops indicates convective activity
weakening and gradually dissipating with loss of heating and
stabilization from earlier rains, with some patchy showers and
remnant patches of light rain still lingering. Will expect most
of this activity to dissipate later this evening.
The surface low is expected to continue tracking to the NE up the
coast overnight. Best moisture transport and lift ahead of the
upper and surface lows will favor the central and north coast
for precipitation tonight, with activity expected to remain east
of our forecast area (FA).
Satellite water vapor loops indicate less cloud cover and some
mid level drier air just to our north, which appears will shift
down into at least the northern portion of our FA tonight. Moist
low levels are expected to promote low cloud development
tonight. Fog possible but the extent of which is uncertain and
dependent on status of lingering mid/upper level cloud cover.
With the drier air aloft drifting south into the northern FA
tonight, fog may be more favored across northern areas, which is
depicted in latest HRRR run. Will indicate areas of fog up
there. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with relatively little temp
change overnight, just slowly falling temps, and light winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night: Surface low pressure will shift
further east as an upper ridge and drier air push in from our
west. This will limit convective coverage across the western
portions of the forecast area in the afternoon. The higher
coverage is expected in the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA
where PWATs remain high around 1.8-1.9 inches. A few showers may
be ongoing Saturday morning along the coastal plain, closer to
the surface low. Coverage should increase through the day with
daytime heating and surface convergence focused near the I-95
corridor. We anticipate only isolated convective coverage along
and north/west of I-20 during the early afternoon. However
outflow from convection in the higher terrain to the west may
push into the Midlands in the late afternoon or evening
colliding with outflows from the east. This will lead to the
highest rainfall chances for western areas being late in the
day. The threat of severe weather is low due to weak CAPE and
weak deep layer shear values but if a deep thunderstorm develops
further west in the drier air its possible that strong
downburst winds may develop. Convection will diminish through
the evening as the low moves further away from the region and
daytime heating is lost. Highs will be near normal in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday and Sunday night: An upper level trough will swing into
the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Southerly flow into the Southeast
will allow PWAT values to rise to around 2.0 inches during the
afternoon. The warm, moist airmass and convergence along a
Piedmont Trough will allow scattered convection to develop
during the afternoon. The stronger support from the upper trough
will be north of the forecast area, promoting higher convective
coverage to the north. 0-6km and effective layer shear values
below 10 kts indicates that the potential for organized
convection is low. With PWAT values around 2 inches it will also
be difficult to get strong downburst winds. Overall the severe
weather threat appears low but we cannot rule out an isolated
severe storm. Some showers may linger into the overnight hours
but activity will generally diminish. Temperatures on Sunday
will be slightly warmer for highs in the lower 90s and lows in
the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures through this period should be
near to slightly above normal with highs in the 90s and lows in
the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging over the Southern Plains and Southeast is
favored for much of the long term. Atmospheric moisture is
expected to remain above normal with mean PWAT values from
ensembles around 2 inches, at or above the climatological 90th
percentile. Upper level ridging, deep moisture and lack of upper
level support suggests a typical summertime pattern of
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and near normal temperatures
through Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough will move through the
Ohio Valley late in the period and bring a bit more upper
forcing to the region which may enhance rain chances late in the
week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR in the near term this evening, but deteriorating CIGS
expected tonight.
Latest radar loops indicates convective activity weakening and
gradually dissipating with loss of heating and stabilization from
earlier rains, with some patchy showers and remnant patches of light
rain still lingering. Will expect most of this activity to dissipate
later this evening. 00Z obs indicating VFR with mainly mid level
cloud cover.
Nocturnal effects in a moist environment expected to favor stratus
development tonight. Guidance indicating IFR to LIFR CIGs
developing. Fog also possible but the extent of which is uncertain
and dependent on status of lingering mid/upper level cloud cover.
Satellite water vapor imagery indicates some dry air aloft
could shift down into the northern or central FA late tonight,
and could promote some fog. For now, kept VSBYs MVFR, but
indicated LIFR CIGs, per a preponderance of the guidance along
with general persistence in the pattern noting widespread
stratus developed late night and lingered into this morning.
Expect a gradual return to VFR Saturday morning with diurnal
heating. As the coastal upper and surface low shift to our E/NE
Saturday, some slightly drier air and some weak NVA will work
southward into a good part of our FA, mainly north. So,
convective coverage over our FA is expected to be less than
today and favor southern and eastern areas. For now, went with
VCSH at OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of late night/early morning
stratus and possibly some fog. Increasing chances of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms Sunday/Monday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 issued for our eastern counties till
10 PM this evening. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Forecast concerns today deal with severe thunderstorm potential
this afternoon.
Currently...Low pressure analyzed near Casper this
afternoon...with a stationary boundary extending south from the
low from Casper to Laramie to Denver. East of this
front...dewpoints being observed in the mid to upper 50s across
the Panhandle and southeast Wyoming plains with south to southeast
surface winds. Current RAP guidance showing surface based CAPE
around 2000 J/KG across northern Goshen County with 1500 J/KG
extending up into Converse County.
Mesoscale guidance showing a supercell developing over Converse
County shortly...moving southeast into Goshen County by 4-5PM.
0-6km shear pretty good this afternoon with 40-50kts forecast.
Looks like we will have a few severe storms through the mid
afternoon and early evening. HRRR simulated radar holds onto
storms until roughly 04Z tonight before storms move east.
Somewhat drier Saturday as PWATS lower to around Carbon County
around 0.5 inches...but still kin of rich in the Panhandle around
1.0 inches. Could be dealing with severe convection again
Saturday afternoon...but less than today. Possibly another surge
in moisture for Sunday as GFS PWATs rise again. Look for another
round of showers and storms Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
No major changes to the extended forecast since the last update.
Tweaked PoPs upward from NBM guidance to maintain slight chance
wording in the forecast for areas east of the Laramie range on
Monday and Tuesday.
Previous Discussion:
Medium to long range models in good agreement with the overall
weather pattern next week, so forecast confidence is actually
pretty high for this far out. Weather pattern shown by current
models is typical of July with southwest flow aloft and a daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Laramie
Range. Models show the subtropical upper level high centered
across the southern Great Plains/Gulf Coastline Sunday through
Tuesday with very little movement noted each day. A high amplitude
ridge axis will extend northwest from the center of the high
towards western Canada. This should result in near normal or
slightly warmer than normal temperatures for the High Plains in
addition to keeping any Pacific energy near the Pacific NW
coastline. The main upper level low off the coast of Washington
will keep the Pac NW unsettled and cool through the forecast
period due to an upstream blocking pattern. Afternoon high
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s should continue through early
next week with maybe a slight warming trend into Tuesday and
Wednesday. Models continue to show a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Laramie Range/I-25
corridor as PW`S will range between 0.75 to 1.25 inches each day
with upslope return flow expected each day. The main forecast
uncertainty will be forcing and with the jet stream far to the
north, will have to rely on shortwave energy around the periphery
of the upper level high for weak forcing and favorable convective
parameters for deep convection. Sunday and Tuesday seem to be the
more favorable days for scattered to numerous thunderstorms as a
few shortwave disturbances eject northeast around the upper level
high. Particularly Tuesday bares watching with ensemble members
showing a better environment. Any changes to the previous forecast
are pretty subtle with some tweaks in POP and T-storm coverage.
Further out, model consensus is in pretty good agreement showing
the potential for record or near record heat by late next week
through the 2nd full weekend of July. Both the GFS and ECMWF show
a strong 603dm upper level high parked over the High Plains of
Colorado and Nebraska/Kansas. The Canadian is also on board, but
shows the upper level high a bit further south. Will continue to
monitor these trends since forecast 700mb temperatures are
currently above 20c for most of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Two bands of showers and thunderstorm will continue to move east
this evening across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The
first line of thunderstorms have produced severe weather across far
eastern Wyoming with mainly gusty winds near KRWL in the afternoon.
Activity should push east of KAIA and KSNY by 08z tonight.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected to prevail until 09z
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms may produce brief IFR conditions
in heavy rain and strong gusty winds between 00z and 03Z for KCYS
and KLAR, and between 00z to 08z for the western Nebraska terminals.
Moderate to severe turbulence is also possible in and near
thunderstorms.
There is a slight chance for some low clouds or fog to develop again
early Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to add to the TAF
at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Minimal fire weather concerns the next few days as monsoonal
moisture remains over the area. Will see daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms through Monday before moisture gets shunted
southeast. Afternoon humidity expected to stay above critical
levels during this time with good to excellent overnight
recoveries. Much drier Tuesday on as warmer temperatures and drier
air filters into the area.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...MN/TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
849 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Overall, a quiet and pleasant evening is setting up across much
of Iowa. Drier air in the wake of the weak cold front that passed
through has allowed dewpoints to fall into the 50s north, and
lower 60s central. Think these areas will have good raditional
cooling tonight with sfc high overhead, light winds, and clear
mostly clear skies. In fact, will likely see quite a few lows in
the upper 50s, maybe a few mid 50s in the cooler locales. Those
camping for the holiday weekend will enjoy those readings.
Areas of southern IA that received light rainfall today have Tds
that remain in the mid/upper 60s. As such, radiation cooling here
is likely to lead to at least patchy fog development towards
daybreak on Saturday /assuming clouds clear/. Not sure we`ll see
dense fog, but will continue to monitor.
Finally, based on the latest 00Z guidance that is beginning to
trickle in, did slow precipitation arrival times until after
sunrise. In fact, the 00Z HRRR is suggesting that many areas will
be mostly dry on Saturday. The midshift will take a closer look
at this later.
Fowle
&&
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Forecast Highlights:
-Showers end this evening, with dry conditions tonight and overnight
-Another chance for showers and storms Saturday, mainly scattered in
nature, low severe threat
-Low end chance for showers and storms Sunday, remaining warm
-Active pattern continues through much of next week with many
chances for showers and thunderstorms, slightly warmer
The overall pattern over the forecast period can be described as
quite active, with many different periods of precipitation
possibilities to note. The zonal flow pattern looking at the
synoptic pattern will largely remain today into Saturday, before a
changing as a broad areas of upper-level ridging develops out over
the western CONUS, which will have a large influence on the weather
pattern this weekend through much of next week.
This afternoon and tonight:
Light rain showers as depicted by radar continued into the
afternoon, impacting the south-central to southern portions of Iowa
as the boundary slowly sagged to the south. GOES satellite imagery
shows mid to upper level clouds across the majority of the state,
though clearing can be seen across the far northwestern portion of
the state. Winds have been variable across the state in part due to
the boundary and are on the light side given the overall weak flow.
Temperatures have been very slow to warm through the day in the mid
to upper 70s across the northwest and in the low 70s to the
southeast where evaporative cooling from the rainfall has led to
slightly cooler conditions. Drying conditions will return for the
remainder of the state later this afternoon into tonight, with
clouds decreasing for at least the overnight hours before the next
chance for showers and storms arrives Saturday morning. Overnight
lows are expected to fall into the 60s across the state.
Saturday/Sunday:
Just ahead of the strengthening ridge, a shortwave moving through
the Central Plains will lead to additional showers and storms
Saturday as moisture advection increases over the region. The
overall nature of these storms look to be rather disorganized and
scattered across the state per short term guidance. Looking at the
HREF ensembles, there seems to be a general agreement on showers
and storms off two different boundaries that will merge into the
southern and northern parts of the state by mid morning through
the remainder of the day. This will likely lead to hit or miss
showers and storms, though this may be less so over central Iowa
which may favor more on the dry side for the most part. Overall
rainfall does not look to be a concern over the area, though
conditions are looking rather favorable for heavy rainfall largely
south of the state towards Missouri into far southern Iowa near
the border. Model soundings suggest PWAT`s around 1.75" with warm
cloud depths of 14kft near the IA/MO border, which would be
favorable for heavier precipitation totals. WPC guidance this
morning has an overall 5% outlook for excessive rainfall over
southern Iowa, and higher further south into Missouri. Looking
into the severe potential Saturday, instability and shear do not
look favorable to develop and maintain any severe storms, with a
general thunder outlined per SPC guidance and the main risk being
lightning. Temperatures will remain on the slightly cooler side
following Friday`s frontal passing, with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Lingering rain showers and weak storms are suggested to
continue into Sunday morning at times per NAM and RAP guidance,
though the GFS as well as HREF suggests returning dry weather late
Saturday. Therefore cannot rule out the chance for lingering on
and off showers and storms at times Sunday, with low PoPs in the
forecast to reflect this. Highs are expected in the 80s, paired
with dewpoints in the 60s to even low 70s across the southwest.
Monday/Independence Day:
Another shortwave riding the strengthening ridge may bring a
potential MCS through the state through the morning hours Monday.
Models continue to be shaky in terms of agreement on the track of
this system, with the NAM favoring coverage over the southeastern
half of the state while the GFS has widespread coverage across the
state Monday morning. The severe threat with this system looks to be
rather low, as again shear is minimal given relatively weak flow
and capping is looking likely from model soundings. Instability
however will be present with warm and moist conditions, with CAPE
largely under 1000-1500 J/kg and warmer temperatures increasing
into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Looking at rainfall efficiency,
potential is there for heavier rainfall at times, with soundings
indicating PWAT`S around 2 inches with warm cloud depths of 15kft.
Models depict potential rainfall values between 1-3 inches with
this system, with WPC highlighting at least western Iowa into
Nebraska having the greatest potential to exceed flash flood
guidance in the marginal to slight category. An important
consideration will be how the rainfall over the weekend will play
out, as some areas may be more vulnerable into the week if hit
with the heavier rainfall. The good news is that soil moisture is
looking good to soak up much of the possible rainfall, and paired
with mature crops should lower the hydro threat. Will continue to
slowly monitor the trends for any major changes through the next
few days. Following the departing system, hit and miss dry
conditions are suggested for the remainder of Independence Day,
which may complicate any outdoor plans.
Tuesday and Beyond:
The long term outlook will remain rather active across the region as
a series of perturbations move with the dominant ridge overhead.
Uncertainty is high given the rather many chances for showers and
thunderstorms that long term guidance is suggesting. Main concern
will be where the systems through the week set up and impact, as the
risk for flooding concerns will likely be higher depending on how
the previous systems play out. Right now, guidance suggest periods
of heavier rainfall over the north late Tuesday into Wednesday, with
more widespread distributions across the state Thursday.
Instability will be plenty over the period given the warmer
weather, though whether this will be able to be tapped into will
depend on if there are any capping concerns or lack of shear that
would limit development of storms. Details are expected to come
into focus over the next several days. Warmer temperatures are
expected to remain into the mid to late week as the upper level
ridge moves into the Northern Plains, with temperatures in the 80s
to mid 90s, warmest across the south/southwest.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Clearing skies with VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
during the overnight. With the sfc high nearly overhead, winds
will be light and variable. With said light winds and clearing
skies, will need to watch the potential for fog across KOTM.
Inserted a TEMPO group from 10z-13z with MVFR fog for now, but
some guidance is suggesting IFR or lower VSBYs. Winds will switch
southeasterly during the day on Saturday. Low confidence on
occurrence/coverage of potential shower or thunderstorm coverage
tomorrow morning/afternoon. Inserted VCTS for a few hours at
KMCW/KALO as a start, but this will likely need to be fined tuned
in upcoming forecasts.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fowle
DISCUSSION...Bury/Krull
AVIATION...Fowle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1008 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will crawl north along the South Carolina coast
tonight into Saturday bringing numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is possible. After this system
moves away from the area early Sunday, scattered thunderstorms
and warm temperatures will continue across the Carolinas as
Bermuda High Pressure remains offshore.
&&
.UPDATE...
High risk of rip currents issued for Brunswick County beaches
tomorrow due to increasing swell. Strong longshore in NC with
southerly winds increasing ahead of a weak coastal low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Coastal low just offshore of Tybee Island, GA has become more
pronounced over the last few hours, and is moving to the southeast.
Noticeable swirls have popped up in various windows of the GOES-16
satellite feeds, and in the latest reflectivity loops of KCLX.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has also caught onto this, giving
this feature a 10% chance of formation within the next 48 hours, per
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. Plenty of asymmetry with this
one, with the bulk of the rain to the east and well offshore, while
some mid-level dry air infiltrates the western side.
This low is ushering some deep layer moisture onshore, providing
periodic showers with the occasional rumble of thunder for the
coast. Meanwhile, more organized diurnal convection has ignited
inland. In both cases, precipitable water values linger in the 2.00-
2.22" range, which is well above the 90% moving average, edging
close to the daily max, per SPC sounding climatologies.
Mid- and low-level relative humidity values holding steady at or
above 90%, with a deep warm cloud layer to boot. Showers and storms
are slow in nature, with the cloud layer (LCL-EL) wind only clocking
in at 6kts, and Corfidi upshear vectors at 4kts.
Throw in long, skinny CAPE profiles in the 1000-1500J/kg range, and
you got yourself a list of ingredients for training showers and
storms capable of minor flooding.
No flooding captured so far today across the forecast area, but this
will need to be monitored throughout the rest of the afternoon and
evening. Rain coverage decreases tonight, particularly inland.
Continued SSE flow allows for another muggy night, with lows in the
lower 70s, lining up with the dewpoints. Wouldn`t be surprised to
have a low stratus deck build in before dawn Saturday.
Coastal low moves slowly to the northeast, tightly hugging the
Carolina coast. Atmosphere remains largely unchanged at the coast,
albeit perhaps a slight increase in precipitable water (as if it
wasn`t already enough). Weather Prediction Center (WPC) puts the
coast in a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/4) of excessive rainfall.
Ponding and minor flooding is possible from training storms. Inland
areas may have some reprieve, thanks to some persistent dry air in
the 850-700mb layer. Clouds and rain keep high temperatures rather
tame, hanging in the upper 80s inland. Shave those values down a few
clicks east of I-95.
An elevated risk of rip currents continues along all area beaches.
With the holiday weekend in full swing, really need to highlight
this for awareness..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The small area of low pressure developing along the South
Carolina coastline could be near Cape Fear Saturday evening.
Until the low moves farther northeast and away from the area
Saturday night, the threat for locally heavy rainfall will
continue along and east of where the low tracks. With the
exception of the 12z 3km NAM and the latest HRRR runs (16-17z),
models didn`t initialize particularly well with this system. WPC
has a `marginal` risk for excessive rainfall for the coastal
counties on Saturday and across all of the area Sunday.
After the low moves away Sunday, a climatological weather
pattern will develop early next week with Bermuda High Pressure
offshore maintaining a warm, humid, and unstable airmass. An
upper level ridge will strengthen over the Mid South early next
week, producing a weak north to northwesterly flow at and above
500 mb. This pattern could easily produce waves of showers and
t-storms given the low level airmass, and we`re forecasting rather
high PoPs: 50-70 percent Sunday, 30-50 percent Sunday night,
50-60 percent Monday, and 30 percent Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The weather pattern will change very little Tuesday through
Friday next week. The upper level ridge will remain across the
Deep South while a broad longwave trough will remain parked off
the East Coast. At the surface a nearly stationary front will
linger across the Mid Atlantic. This pattern should support
multiple waves of thunderstorms developing along the front as
upper level disturbances dive southeastward between the ridge
and the offshore trough. Timing on these disturbances isn`t
really possible at this time range, but the overall pattern is
certainly supportive of thunderstorm clusters most days next
week.
Given the timing uncertainty, forecast PoPs will remain around
50 percent each day. This could be a really good pattern for
adding up significant rainfall across drought-stricken areas of
eastern North and South Carolina. Forecast temperatures are
near normal each day with mid-upper 80s along the coast and
lower 90s inland.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tropical air mass will bring MVFR ceilings and IFR ceilings
inland overnight with dew point depressions below 5 across the
region. Some patchy fog is also possible inland where rainfall
from previous days will maintain positive moisture flux. A
coastal low tracking northward along the SC coast will bring the
chance for showers and an isolated storm late tonight and into
tomorrow morning. The tropical showers may produce VIS
restrictions for coastal terminals. Inland terminals may see an
isolated shower tomorrow afternoon.
Extended Outlook...Periodic MVFR/IFR through the weekend,
especially at the coast. This due to better chances for
afternoon/early evening showers and tstms as well as early
morning onshore movement of convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday...SSE winds pull more southerly by tonight, as
a coastal low currently offshore of Tybee Island, GA inches its
way up the coastline. Pressure gradient tightens as a result,
with winds gusting to the 20-25kts range by Saturday afternoon.
Seas currently near 2-3ft, but is expected to increase with the
southeasterly swell. Expecting 2-4ft waves closer to the coast,
with 4-5ft waves more likely away from shore. May hit Small
Craft Advisory thresholds along the North Carolina waters by
Saturday afternoon, but it`s a bit too early/borderline to make
a definitive call.
Perhaps the most important thing to note here is the increased risk
of waterspouts. A couple have already occurred earlier today just
offshore of SC Lowcountry and the Grand Strand. A very similar
atmosphere persists into tonight and Saturday, so this will need to
be closely monitored.
Saturday Night through Wednesday...The interesting little low
moving north along the South Carolina coast could be in the Cape
Fear vicinity Saturday evening. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds
on the east side of the circulation are a real potential. The
low should continue to move northeastward and away from the area
Saturday night. With the exception of the 12z NAM, few models
have initialized well with this feature and there isn`t a lot to
go on yet with how strong or well-organized it may become. The
potential for 6 foot seas could continue through Saturday
evening if winds east of the low are strong enough.
By Sunday we should get into a typical summertime pattern with
Bermuda high pressure offshore and south to southwest winds
prevailing across the waters. Models are showing a large number
of upper level disturbances dipping south into the Carolinas
which should keep the threat for thunderstorms in the forecast
most of next week. Seas should consist of an 8 to 9 second
southeast swell overlaid with short period south to southwest
wind chop, with combined seas averaging 3 feet in height.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through
Saturday evening for NCZ106-108.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday
evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM/DCH/TRA/IGB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows high pressure ridging across the Gulf will keep
south to southeasterly winds across the coastal waters overnight,
with light and variable winds inland. Radar showing scattered
showers across the coastal waters. Expect additional development
overnight, spreading inland after daybreak Saturday. Temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s expected to fall to the lower/mid 70s by
daybreak.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/
DISCUSSION...
For the 07/02/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
Much of the active weather spawned by the tropical disturbance has
subsided this evening, although a few showers and MVFR ceilings
remain. Generally the evening will be quiet, and perhaps ceilings
could improve to 5000 feet before midnight, but this will be
short-lived before the next round of showers and storms develop
after midnight. Convection will develop over coastal waters
before moving north and becoming widespread across the area once
again throughout the morning. Periods of SHRA are the primary
focus, although -TSRA will be introduced at terminals during the
afternoon hours to account for the diurnal uptick in storms we
expect this time of year. Rain and storms should begin tapering
off towards the end of the forecast period.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Sunday]...
Low pressure system over SE TX has, as expected, brought
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region today.
Mostly light stratiform rain is ongoing this afternoon, apart from
some heavier convection across lower Acadiana. Convection should
continue through the next few hours, before eventually tapering
off around sunset. A few showers may linger thereafter, but for
the most part we should see a period of quiet weather tonight into
early tomorrow which will hopefully allow the ground to recover
some. Tomorrow morning, likely pre-sunrise, showers and
thunderstorms look to start firing up once again, first along the
coast and then spreading inland through the mid to late morning.
CAMS are not in great agreement on how long this next round of
convection will last, with the HRRR and RAP keeping most of the
region wet through tomorrow afternoon while the NAM wants to dry
us out sooner. Regardless, most if not all of the rain should be
out of here by sunset tomorrow, just in time for any 4th of July
fireworks shows.
By the end of the weekend, we return to a more typical pattern as
the nearby low dissipates and high pressure begins to build back
into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again Sunday afternoon, but coverage should be much
more typical of a normal summer afternoon rather that what we`re
seeing today/tomorrow. Temperature wise, we`ve barely made it out
of the 70s today thanks to all the cloud cover, and tomorrow looks
like it could be similar. Went with mid 80s for highs tomorrow,
but this could end up being too warm if convection hangs around
well into the afternoon. Regardless, we start to warm back up by
Sunday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s expected once
again.
17
LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
The long range portion of the forecast period currently shows
something of a return to a more seasonal pattern as mid/upper-level
ridging gradually redevelops over the region. Sfc high pressure
remaining centered to our east will help maintain our low-level srly
flow off the Gulf, with forecast soundings indicating PWAT values
around or slightly above the seasonal norms for early July. While
synoptic-scale features for convective initiation look fairly nil,
mesoscale features, primarily the afternoon sea breeze, will help
fire off showers and storms along with daytime heating, especially
across lower Acadiana where moisture is progged to be best. This is
especially true starting Tuesday when a plume of deeper moisture is
progged to slide across the Atchafalaya Basin. Some development will
also be possible near the coast around sunrise as nocturnal maritime
activity tries pushing ashore.
With the return of building heights aloft, daytime temps will
gradually rise through the week, with maxes by late next week back
into the upper 90s across interior sern TX. This also means a return
of near-criteria heat index values. Stay tuned.
25
MARINE...
A surface low over SErn TX will continue to meander inland over
the next 24 hours or so, providing widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the NWrn Gulf. Ongoing convection will taper off
through the evening hours, with a period of quiet weather expected
overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
develop tomorrow morning, likely before sunrise, and continue into
the afternoon, eventually tapering off later tomorrow as the low
pressure system begins to dissipate. Sunday into next week, a more
typical pattern will return with daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms, driven by daytime heating. Elevated wind/seas will
be possible within any strong storms, both today/tomorrow and next
week, however, generally light winds and seas are anticipated
through the period otherwise.
17
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Regional satellite imagery augmented by recent RAP data show the
instability axis is well downstate across southern Illinois and
Indiana. Accordingly, opted to remove the thunder mention from our
forecast this evening with only a few showers expected to remain
south of I-80 over the next few hours.
As mentioned in the Short Term Discussion below, we`ll have to
watch for fog development overnight as clouds clear, particularly
along and south of Interstate 80 where boundary layer moisture
remains high and winds will become stagnant. For now, will
continue to withhold mention in the official forecast in favor of
watching trends.
Updated products have been sent.
Borchardt
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Through Tonight...
Areas of showers with embedded, scattered-coverage thunderstorms
are expected to continue the rest of this afternoon, with the
thunder mainly along and south of I-80. Heavy downpours and at
times frequent lighting are the main points to note with any
storms. One or two deeper storm cores with some gusty winds still
cannot be 100 percent ruled out from 330-7 P.M. primarily along
and south of the Kankakee River Valley, but because of the
substantial midday cloudiness, marked destabilization for a
severe threat is a low outcome possibility. Otherwise, there also
is a chance for fog overnight where it had rained today.
A slow moving cold front is inching its way south through the
region early this afternoon. This true wind shift part of this
front, aided in part by the lake, is around I-80 as of 2 PM
(though outflow is even further south), while the more noteworthy
dew point drop is near I-90. The wind shift and dew points into
the upper 60s to around 70 along it are the low-level focus.
Aloft, broad upper level ascent is over the region within a right
entrance region of a 100 kt jet, and a couple short wave impulses
(possibly convectively-enhanced) are traversing the region. One
is over the eastern CWA as of 2 PM and helped to drive an initial
cluster of storms exiting into north central Indiana, while a
little stronger/broader short wave is in south central Iowa
associated with a 50-60 kt 500 mb speed maximum.
As this stronger wave translates east, it will have the potential
to spread scattered showers further north during the latter half
of the afternoon, including to Rockford and Chicago, though the
thunder potential should mainly remain south of I-80 due to
limited instability. MUCAPE values from this morning of around
1,000 J/kg and lapse rates around 8C/km in the 700-550 mb layer as
sampled by the 12Z DVN sounding have been cut into by the earlier
thunderstorm activity. The elevated instability likely is not
entirely gone, and the RAP SFCOA mesoanalysis supports that idea,
but the potential for more robust updrafts north of I-80 appears
quite limited even though these areas are presently warmer due to
a lack of rain and thicker clouds today. As for further south, the
strongest convergence of the front will have shifted south of the
CWA by after 3 PM, helped in part due to outflow from earlier
storms. So the expectations are that storms will remain largely
loosely organized, due to limited focus and a marginal effective
component to the deep layer shear (due to limited instability).
Convective activity should be shifting east and south of the CWA
by 8 P.M. or so, with light winds under a 1016 mb high pressure.
With the rain from today in the southern half of the forecast area
and lingering high dew points in this region, it`s possible there
could be some fog if clearing occurs. A few high-resolution
models do show this, though some indicate no visibility
restriction at all. Confidence overall is low in any fog, though a
widespread dense event is presently not expected.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Saturday through Friday...
Primary forecast concern is thunderstorm chances for the end of
the holiday weekend, on Monday, with thunderstorm chances
continuing all of next week.
While Saturday and Sunday are looking generally dry, a weak wave
may lead to isolated showers across southern WI Saturday afternoon
and another wave may bring a few showers to far northwest IL early
Sunday morning. Opted to add a slight chance for showers early
Sunday morning, though confidence is fairly low. There may be
another chance for isolated showers across the southern cwa Sunday
afternoon and maintained slight chance pops for the south but
confidence here is also low. Most of the area will stay dry
through Sunday evening. High temps are likely to reach the mid to
upper 80s both days, though lake breezes both afternoons will keep
the lakeshore areas cooler.
By late Sunday night/early Monday morning, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the MN/IA area and move toward the area.
There remains quite a bit of uncertainty for timing/location and
strengthen with this activity. However, slight chance mention for
thunderstorms prior to daybreak Monday morning is reasonable. Its
also possible that this activity dissipates prior to reaching the
area, leaving Monday morning drier but with a better chance of
afternoon/evening convection. Models have been in good agreement
with several rounds of convection nearby or across the local area
through the middle/end of next week and those trends continue.
Timing becomes more problematic as each wave will have impacts on
the next. While there will be dry periods, blended chance pops
from Monday onward are necessary given the pattern and
uncertainty. Blended temps have also increased quite a bit and
these will be completely dependent on cloud cover/precip timing/
coverage. But given the proximity to the ridge, made no changes to
the blended guidance.
Also of note with the precipitation chances next week, is the
potential for several rounds of heavy rain. Precipitable water
values reach 2+ inches on Monday and more or less stay around or
over 2 inches through Thursday. Once one round drops heavy rain,
it will just increase the dewpoints, maintaining the moist
atmosphere and allowing the next wave to have plenty to work with.
Thus, despite the developing drought conditions and very low river
levels, if several rounds of heavy rain materialize, there will be
at least a localized flooding potential. In addition, depending on
time of day, strong/severe thunderstorms may also be possible. cms
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
* Showers ending south of the terminals early this evening.
* Light/variable winds into Saturday, with an eventual shift to an
easterly component by early afternoon with lake enhancement.
* Fog potential mainly south of the terminals overnight where wet
ground and higher boundary layer moisture reside.
Effective cold frontal boundary has pushed well south of the
terminals early this evening, shifting greatest shower and
thunderstorm potential into downstate IL/IN. A mid-level
disturbance was tracking east across northern IL, producing some
scattered lighter showers that were passing south of the
terminals, closest to GYY. Passage of this wave should allow an
overall decrease in cloud cover through mid-late evening.
Weak surface pressure gradient has allowed winds to become largely
light/variable especially across the Chicago metro terminals, and
this will continue to be the case into mid-evening before winds
take on a light west-northwesterly component overnight. Weak surface
high pressure will drift across the area into Saturday, and will
maintaining light/variable nature of winds. Should see an eventual
shift to the east by early afternoon as a lake breeze develops,
though timing of this shift is still of somewhat low confidence.
Winds should generally be less than 10 kts however. With the high
sliding past the area Saturday evening, winds should become light
southeasterly.
South of the terminals where rain was more widespread today, the
combination of wet ground, light winds and clearing skies will
likely allow for patchy fog development overnight. GYY could be
close to the northern periphery of better fog potential, though
current thinking is that better chances of lower visibility will
be south/southeast of there.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Isolated showers continued across southeast NE and southwest IA at
mid afternoon, although this activity will end altogether in the
next handful of hours. Rainfall was quite variable across the
forecast area over the previous 24 hours. Some areas got
significant rainfall, and others got little if any rain at all.
The heaviest band occurred from near Albion, southeastward in a
10-15 mile wide band that also eventually clipped northern
portions of the Omaha metro area with 1-2" of rain.
For tonight, much of the evening should be dry. Models suggest
spotty thunderstorms may begin developing near the KS/NE border
by 03-05z, becoming numerous after midnight, thus will carry
likely pops in southeast NE accordingly. The forecast area remains
in risk of general storms, so the overall severe risk is low.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in southeast NE though,
and while WPC has that area in a slight risk of excessive heavy
rainfall, flooding is not expected in our area, with the heaviest
and possible flooding rains expected in northeast KS. Meanwhile,
the remnants of stronger storms moving out of central SD may move
into northeast NE after midnight as well, but also weaken as they
push into our area.
Saturday could very well end up much like today with scattered
morning showers/thundershowers. Will maintain likely pops in
southeast NE/southwest IA, but 30-50% elsewhere. And then models
also suggest lower precipitation chances during the afternoon, and
it may very well be dry. Highs Saturday in the upper 70s to mid
80s depending on location.
For Saturday night, the long-range 12z HRRR suggested that a
strong convective complex could be moving into northeast NE by
late evening into the early overnight. Thus, SPC placed that area
in a marginal risk for severe storms. But several other models are
actually dry Saturday night, and still a handful of other CAMs
suggest there`s at least a 20-30% of storms across the forecast
area. Confidence is pretty low in the eventual outcome. And the
same could be said for Sunday. Large scale models are generally
dry, but NBM holds onto a 20-30% chance of storms. Sunday does get
a little warmer with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
Models do indicate another wave moving out of the Rockies Sunday
night, with a more decent signal for scattered thunderstorms
across the region, and SPC has placed the entire forecast area in
another marginal risk for severe storms. WPC will also have at
least the northern half of the forecast area in a slight risk for
excessive heavy rainfall.
By Monday, widespread hot weather again develops with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. This heat continues into at least Tuesday, but
90s also continue through the remainder of the week, well above
normal, but below any records. Heat index Monday and Tuesday could
range 102-107 each afternoon, so we may have to eventually
consider issuing heat advisories for the area. Storm chances
become somewhat uncertain in the extended periods, but NBM
indicates a daily chance of rain. Again, not that the week will be
a washout, but we`ll have few chances of storms every day,
although confidence in the timing and location continues to be
quite low.
While we do not issue air quality alerts, wanted to pass along
that the Lincoln/Lancaster Health Department has issued an air
quality advisory for sensitive populations for fireworks smoke
for the evenings of July 3 and July 4.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022
Rain and thunderstorms are expecting during the TAF period but
confidence is low in both timing and location. CAM models have
consistently placed a band of rain showers across southeastern
Nebraska. However, there are enough other model runs that more
widespread precipitation across the forecast area can`t be ruled
out. The most likely timeframe for precipitation is between 12 and
18Z.
MVFR ceilings are forecast in far southeast Nebraska (including
KLNK) between 12Z and 21Z. After 18Z, ceilings should begin to
lift and scatter out. Winds are forecast to stay under 15 kts
and should primarily be from the east.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Fajman