Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/01/22

National Weather Service Albany NY
741 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will continue into tonight. Hot temperatures are expected on Friday, with some late day showers and thunderstorms possible. A frontal boundary will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms for Friday night into Saturday, before drier and slightly cooler air arrives for Sunday into Independence Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Updated at 735 PM EDT. Current forecast is on track and just made a few minor tweaks to the grids based on latest temperature trends. Skies will remain mostly clear this evening with just some high clouds and temperatures falling from the 70s into the 60s. It appears that the combination of high clouds and a light breeze will be enough to keep much fog from forming, although a few light patches will be possible around daybreak in the valleys. Previous discussion is below. As of 335 PM EDT...Weak upper level ridge axis is centered over the area this afternoon with surface high pressure sliding eastward across New England. With the surface high pressure nearby, skies are fairly clear, with just some diurnal cumulus around. For this evening into tonight, skies will continue to remain partly to mostly clear. The ridge axis will be slowly shifting eastward through the overnight. While the diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening, patches of mid and high level clouds may start to increase from the west, as the low to mid level flow will start to increase out of the south to southwest. While some warm advection will be underway aloft, limited moisture in place won`t allow for any precip. Surface dewpoints will slowly be increasing through the night as the low-level flow shifts to the south, but the short duration of the overnight and a light breeze will help prevent much radiational fog from forming. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s for many areas, although some upper 50s are possible across the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, 850 hpa temps will be around +16 to +20 thanks to the southwest flow in place. Our area will be in a warm sector, behind a departing warm front and ahead of a cold front over the Great Lakes. With plenty of sun expected, temps will reach the low 90s in valley areas, with 80s across the high terrain. Heat Index values will be close to the actual temps, as dewpoints won`t be overly muggy (mainly upper 50s to low 60s) so we should fall short of heat advisory criteria through the day. Still, anyone spending extended time outdoors should take precautions, as it will be quite warm. While skies will be fairly sunny in the morning, some patchy clouds are expected by afternoon, thanks to some building cumulus. CAMs (such as the 3km HRRR and NAMNest) show some convection will start spreading towards our area by Friday evening (mainly after 21z). This initial convection looks fairly isolated to scattered and will be mainly impacting the northwestern part of the area. A rogue strong storm can`t be ruled out with this activity across the western Mohawk Valley or western Adirondacks before sunset, as moderate amounts of instability (around 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) and just enough mid-level flow (700 hpa winds around 30 to 35 kts) to produce some locally strong wind gusts. Some additional round of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected into Friday night as the front continues to get closer to the area. While the mid-level flow will be increasing, the nocturnal stable layer near the surface will help limit instability and keep the severe threat fairly low into Friday night. Still, many areas may see some wet weather and rumbles of thunder as activity passes west to east across the area. Temps will remain mild and muggy into Friday night with temps in the 60s. The front will be crossing the area on Saturday. While northern areas will see the passage earlier in the day, it won`t be crossing for areas south of the Capital Region until the afternoon. This could allow for some instability to build up ahead of the front and with 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts, there could be some severe storms across southern areas for the afternoon hours. Damaging winds are the main threat, although some small hail can`t be ruled out within the strongest storms as well. SPC has southern areas in a Slight Risk and this makes sense considering the shear, strong forcing and potential instability in place. Temps will range from the low to mid 70s in the Adirondacks behind the front to the low to mid 80s ahead of the boundary in southern and eastern areas. The front should cross by evening, allowing for precip to wind down and move southeast of the area. Cooler and less humid air will move in for Saturday night with drying conditions. Lows will generally be in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A general west to northwesterly zonal mid-level flow will be in place Sunday and Monday with surface high pressure over the region. This should result in drier weather to end the Fourth of July weekend. Expect temperatures near seasonable levels with comfortable humidity levels and a light west to northwesterly breeze each afternoon. The weather pattern then becomes a bit more uncertain and complex as occasional upper-level troughs or shortwave pass through the continued west to northwesterly flow Tuesday through Thursday. While this should prevent any higher heat or humidity from advecting into the region (temperatures remaining near seasonable levels and humidity levels remaining in the comfortable range), but will bring an increase in isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm chances. Global models have a large range of solutions during this period, though it looks like we could get into a more unsettled weather pattern at times. We generally ran with NBM pops for now which highlights slight to low chance pops each day. Certainly, there will be times of rain and times of dryness, but there is low confidence on when to expect each. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z/Sat...A warm front will lift northward across the region tonight and place the area within the warm sector of a system that could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the TAF period. Tonight will consist of mainly VFR conditions with just a few mid and high clouds around. With the extra cloud cover, chances for fog development are low and will not include in any TAF at this time. The daytime hours Friday will start out with just some high cirrus clouds, then diurnal cumulus will begin to develop around 18z with bases around 8-10 kft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop later in the afternoon but due to the sparse coverage, will leave out of the TAFs at this time. Wind will be light and variable through the overnight, though should pick up our of the south at KALB between 5-10 kt toward daybreak. Wind then becomes southwesterly at 10-15 kt from late morning through the afternoon with a few gusts around 20 kt possible, especially at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather is expected tonight with light winds and RH recovering to near 80 percent or higher. On Friday, a south to southwest wind will be around 5 to 10 mph with afternoon RH values as low as 30 to 40 percent. Some showers or t-storms are possible late in the day and into Friday night. Some areas may see some showers or thunderstorms lingering into Saturday as well. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather is expected tonight into most of Friday. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday evening into Friday night. As a frontal boundary settles south on Saturday, some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, before dry weather returns for Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts within showers and thunderstorms will be highly variable. While basin average amounts look to be around a quarter to a third of an inch, localized point totals up to an inch are possible. While this rainfall may allow for brief ponding in urban or low lying areas, the recent dry weather makes this rainfall much needed and few hydrologic issues are anticipated through the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...MSE/Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Precip chances continue to be the primary forecast challenge in the short term. Currently...Surface frontal boundary lays along a line from Sidney to just north of Cheyenne...westward to a low pressure system analyzed just south of Riverton this afternoon at 18Z. Surface winds still south here at Cheyenne and southwest out by front has not come through as of yet at these two locations. Had a line of showers come through the southern CWA earlier this morning that has stabilized the atmosphere. But we have seen pockets of sunshine with temperatures climbing to the low 80s here at Cheyenne and mid 70s at Laramie. Seeing another area of thunderstorms out by Rock Springs moving east along the I-80 Corridor heading for Carbon County Latest short term RAP guidance from SPC`s Mesoanalysis page showing surface based CAPE increasing...currently at around 800 to 900 J/KG here at Cheyenne and near 1000 J/KG at Rawlins. We continue to destabilize with continued surface heating. HRRR simulated radar does show storms developing once again in the next hour or so as CAPE increases. HRRR/RAP guidance does increase PoPs across the area later this afternoon and continuing it into the mid evening hours as front stalls near the Laramie Range and an upper shortwave tracks across the front. High PWAT values this afternoon up near .8 inches west of the Laramie Range and near 1.2 inches in the Panhandle. Will keep high PoPs going in the afternoon forecast today through roughly 02-03Z before diminishing with surface heating ending. Looks like a repeat for Friday with the upper shortwave moving northeast into central South Dakota. SPC has a Slight Risk for severe storms across the northern Panhandle and a Marginal Risk for the rest of the Panhandle down into eastern Colorado. With the surface front being pulled east with the upper shortwave...does look like we stand a better chance for severe storms. 0-6km shear values up near 45kts for the Panhandle Friday afternoon into the east slopes of the Laramie Range. Could be a busy day Friday. For Saturday...Looks like less coverage of PoPs as ridge axis moves overhead. But still a chance for the mountains. We will see. So far...the guidance has been pretty poor on PoPs as deep monsoonal moisture has stayed south and east. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 No major changes from previous forecasts were made with this update. Convective potential for the Independence Day holiday remains uncertain, but continued to nudge PoPs up slightly from the NBM to maintain slight chance or chance for showers and thunderstorms wording in the forecast for most of the area. Similar nudging was done for Tuesday. Previous Discussion: Fairly active pattern setting up in the long term forecast, with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms just about every day. Near zonal flow aloft will begin to give way to upper level ridging over the western CONUS with an upper level low becoming near stationary across the Pacific Northwest, amplifying the downstream ridge. This feature is expected to become a decent blocking pattern, ultimately locking the upper level low to the western seaboard and preventing much movement within the flow. As mentioned previously, main forecast challenges will remain with the chance for afternoon convection just about every day in the extended forecast, which will largely depend on surges of enhanced moisture advection into the CWA. Current long range model guidance has precipitable water values remaining on the higher side, ranging from 0.75 to 1.5 through the weekend, as a plume of monsoonal moisture pushes northward. This combined with several shortwave disturbances pulsing within the flow should be enough for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to persist this weekend, with Sunday remaining strong for a much better monsoonal moisture push into our region and precipitable water values remaining quite high. With focus being draw to this upcoming holiday, will need to continually monitor the forecast trends, with a high level of uncertainty due to model variability. Earlier GFS model runs indicated a much more favorable environment on Monday for gusty downburst winds and stronger thunderstorm potentials that the recent runs have trended away from, keeping the majority of Gulf moisture advection further to the east. Nevertheless, should be enough residual moisture available to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With that being said, it is still a bit too far out to call and will need to be monitored throughout the weekend. In terms of temperatures for the holiday, they are expected to be on the warm side with southeastern Wyoming just slightly above normal. Daytime highs are expected to be in the high-80s to low-90s for areas east of I-25, mid to high-80s for areas to the west, and 60s across the higher terrains. For the Nebraska Panhandle, above normal temperatures expected with daytime highs in the mid-90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Friday afternoon) Issued at 535PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Primary Aviation concern over the next 18 hours will mainly be this evening as a band of moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms moves southeast across southeast Wyoming through 03z this evening...and over southern Nebraska between 02z and 05z late this evening as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. This activity has a history of producing wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph and 2-4 mile VIS across Carbon County. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: KRWL should be finished with the precipitation as of 00z to 01z, with KLAR and KCYS the next terminals to see a sudden drop in CIGS and VIS as the line of thunderstorms moves across Albany and Laramie counties. Expect moderate to locally heavy rainfall at these two terminals between 00z and 03z. This activity will shift east into the KSNY area later this evening. Added gusty winds and lower VIS to these terminals for the 00z TAF package. Otherwise, will keep an eye on fog development late tonight depending on rainfall amounts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Monsoonal moisture to remain in place today through the weekend before shifting back to the southeast. Afternoon humidity expected to stay above critical levels with this moisture. Good chances for wetting rains this afternoon...especially along the I-80 Corridor. Daily chances for wetting rains through Sunday...before we begin to dry out again. Warmer temperatures and drier air could lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions next week. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...MN/MRD AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through Friday night) Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Today-Tonight: The Tri-State area remains situated on the northern periphery of a broad upper level ridge -- at the far southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Though the synoptic pattern remains essentially the same (compared to yesterday).. guidance continues to indicate a far greater potential for convection during the late afternoon/evening.. perhaps assoc/w a subtle change in the orientation/magnitude of the upper level ridge over the 4-Corners and stronger flow aloft (at/above 300 mb) over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies bringing small amplitude waves in closer proximity to the central Rockies. 19Z (1 pm MDT) SPC mesoanalysis data (700-400 mb DPVA) suggests that such a wave may be present invof the CO/WY/NE border. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to suggest that convection will develop in the lee of the Rockies during the mid-afternoon, increasing in coverage and progressing downstream into western KS during the late aft/eve (reaching the CO/KS border by ~00Z) -- and that separate/distinct development may occur along a weak, SW-NE oriented thermal- moisture boundary (TMB) -- invof a line extending from Oakley- Norton-Hastings. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a dry thermodynamic environment characterized by skinny, high-based CAPE profiles and a kinematic environment characterized by weak low- mid tropospheric flow (10-15 knot winds from the surface to ~500 mb). In such conditions.. organized convection is not anticipated. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data indicates an exceedingly poor thermodynamic environment in place over the region -- characterized by lingering convective inhibition and marginal instability (~100-250 J/kg MLCAPE).. with perhaps ~500 J/kg east of Hwy 283 (Norton-Hill City) near the moist side of the TMB -- and that little in the way of additional destabilization is likely. In weak forcing regimes, convection allowing guidance tends to be far less reliable. Confidence is low with regard to whether or not convection emanating from the Rockies will meaningfully intensify and/or persist downstream into western KS. Seasonably/climatologically strong DCAPE and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will, of course, support brief/isold instances of damaging wind in association with any deep updrafts. Fri-Fri night: Similar to today (no significant change in the synoptic pattern) -- except that forecast confidence is even lower -- as lingering convection and/or convective remnants (late tonight and Fri morning) may alter environmental conditions over the region. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Models have an upper level ridge building back across the region on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level high/ridge shifts southeast across TX and the Gulf coast region on Monday. An upper level trough moves across the central plains into Midwest late next Wednesday into Thursday. Expect mainly upper level zonal flow early in the period becoming southwest upper level flow and then northwest upper level flow by the end of the period. At the surface on Saturday a surface low is projected to be across southwest SD/nw NE region with another across southern Kansas with a weak boundary between them. By sunday a stationary boundary is projected to be across southeast WY southeast to southern KS. On Monday a surface low pressure is across western Nebraska with a warm front across Nebraska southeast into southern IN. A surface trough is across western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. On Tuesday the surface low is across central Nebraska with a stationary boundary across Nebraska southeast to OH valley and a surface trough across southern Nebraska southwest to NM. By Wednesday and Thursday the stationary boundary is projected to be across southern Nebraska/northern KS southeast into northern KY. Temperatures will start off lower in the upper 80s to lower 90s for afternoon highs on Saturday. Sunday`s afternoon high temperatures will be in the 90s. For Monday and Tuesday expect afternoon high temperatures to climb back into the lower 90s and lower 100s. Then slightly cooler by next Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be mainly in the lower 60s to middle 70s. Expect some better precipitation chances during the extended period early and then more isolated activity Monday into Tuesday and then better chances late next Wednesday into early next Thursday as upper level trough passes through. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 500 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty north winds at taf issuance may continue for another few hours before setting below 12kts this evening. On Friday, winds veer to the northeast then east at speeds up to 11kts. Regarding precipitation chances, very difficult to lend any confidence to any of the numerous model solutions. It appears that there is a chance in the 05z-08z timeframe so have included it into the forecast. Further updates may be needed once storms get going and confidence increases in impacting the terminal. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Northeast winds around 11kts are expected from taf issuance through 15z. After 16z, winds steadily veer to the east with speeds approaching 12kts at the end of the taf period. Regarding precipitation chances, very difficult to lend any confidence to any of the numerical model solutions and pinpoint a time that the terminal may be impacted. So for now, have kept any mention of precipitation out of the forecast and should confidence increase amendments will be made. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1012 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 756 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Sporadic convection persists this evening, but has struggled to remain deep for any prolonged period. At the present time, cells were primarily along or north of the TN River where low level lapse rates were steepest. The BMX sounding indicates a very moist atmosphere with ~1.9 inches of PW, but low level lapse rates drop off. The latest HRRR runs indicate a continued diminishing trend after sunset, and our current forecast reflects that, especially after 03-04Z. Will not adjust much at this point and continue to monitor convective trends this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Short term model consensus suggests little change in the synoptic pattern through the first half of the weekend, as a relative weakness in the mid-level height field will remain positioned from south TX northeastward into the TN Valley. Although we expect convection to be largely initiated by mesoscale outflow boundaries and closely tied to the diurnal warming cycle, weaker subsidence aloft compared to points to our east and west should allow for a greater coverage of storms on both Friday and Saturday afternoon, and we have indicated POPs in the 40-50% range each period. A thermodynamic environment similar to today`s may yield brief gusty winds and frequent lightning with the strongest storms both days. Given weak steering flow and precipitable water values in the 1.75-2 inch range, locally heavy downpours could also result in ponding of water and minor flooding in a few locations. Highs will remain in the u80s-l90s, with lows in the u60s-l70s, and patchy mist/fog will be a nightly occurrence, especially in the vicinity of heavier rainfall swaths. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Global models suggest that the Atlantic subtropical ridge will begin to slowly retrograde into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and should both expand across the Gulf coast states and strengthen early next week in response to the motion of a northern stream trough across the Pacific Northwest. Although strengthening subsidence aloft in this regime will lead to a gradual decreasing trend in the coverage of afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity early next week, we will maintain a fairly low POP in the updated grids to reflect an increasingly moist and unstable airmass featuring dewpoints in the l-m 70s and precipitable water in the 2-2.25 inch range. There are some indications that the center of the subtropical ridge may migrate further westward into the southern Plains by the end of the extended period, which would result in moderately strong north- northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley by Wednesday/Thursday. This could potentially allow for a greater coverage of convection by the middle of next week as clusters of thunderstorms may spread southeastward into the region ahead of a slow-moving cold front, but due to uncertainty in this scenario, we have kept POPs in the low chance range. Highs will steadily warm into the l-m 90s, which may also lead to Heat Advisory criteria being reached across portions of the region on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Lows will respond to the increase in dewpoints, with temperatures expected to only fall into the l-m 70s at night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with the exception of in any SHRA or TSRA Friday. These should start to develop by ~16Z, with isolated to scattered coverage expected. Brief gusty winds will be possible in and near TSRA. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
832 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Mild and dry conditions are expected across central Illinois tonight with lows dropping into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. A cold front will sink southward into the region on Friday, triggering scattered thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening. Highs will range from the lower 80s far north around the lower 90s along and south of the I-72 corridor. && .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Mostly clear skies prevail across central Illinois this evening with 01z/8pm temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. With light southerly winds of 5-10mph expected to continue through the night, lows will be a few degrees warmer than they were last night in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Current forecast is right on track and requires no update at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 This afternoon, high pressure is centered just off the mid Atlantic Coast with ridging extending back into the Deep South. Low pressure is analyzed over northern Ontario with a front stretching across portions of the Upper Midwest to the High Plains. In between these features, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to spread north from the lower to the mid Mississippi Valley and expect dew points in the 70s to return to areas south of I-70 this evening and dew points near 70F for most of central Illinois SE of the Illinois River by midday tomorrow. The cold front to our northwest is expected to reach roughly the Illinois River by midday Friday and dew points pooling in the lower 70s ahead of the front will contribute to seasonably modest instability peaking around 1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will slip south of the I-72 corridor through the afternoon. Some diminishing showers are possible early in the day as the front initially moves into the forecast area, then expect a lull in precip around midday before thunderstorms redevelop mid afternoon into the evening as a low amplitude shortwave moves across portions of central and northern Illinois. Overall forcing remains weak along the tail end of the frontal boundary but soundings show the column weakly capped or uncapped so expect at least some widely scattered storms to be able to develop. Despite the modest instability, deep layer shear is 30-40 kt which could support rotating updrafts. In addition, steep low level lapse rates (0-3km around 8 C/km), high DCAPE values (in excess of 1500 J/kg), and LCL heights in excess of 1 km all point to the possibility of a wind/microburst threat at least during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Storm coverage should stay on the lower end with only an isolated severe threat expected at this time. Friday night, the frontal boundary is expected to settle across portions of southern Illinois and precip should diminish across central Illinois. Focus Friday night will be well to the west as a low level jet develops across portions of Kansas and Nebraska then shifts east overnight. Some of the decaying remnants of this complex of storms associated with this low level jet could move into portions of central Illinois during the day Saturday, but otherwise expect the chance for stronger storms to redevelop along the stalled frontal boundary over southern Illinois. Much of the day should be dry Saturday barring the front slowing down significantly. Temperatures will moderate closer to the seasonal norms across central Illinois with afternoon highs in the mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Early Sunday, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes and the frontal boundary should still be in place across southern Illinois. Much of the day should be dry as a result but there is at least a chance for showers and storms as the front begins to lift north in response to a shortwave moving across portions of the central Great Plains. Temperatures remain seasonable on the cool side of the boundary. Models begin to see more divergence the first half of next week but the general idea is that low pressure will be in place over the central Great Plains with the frontal boundary draped over portions of the Upper Midwest and Midwest with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms including nocturnal MCSs driven by the low level jet. Central Illinois should remain on the warm side of the boundary most of the period with temperatures warming into the 90s each day which coupled with dew points in the lower to mid 70s will result in peak heat indices around or in excess of 100 degrees each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Main aviation forecast challenge will be the potential for scattered convection on Friday. Cold front will drop southward into the area during the afternoon resulting in a few thunderstorms. Exact areal coverage and timing is still somewhat uncertain: however, model consensus suggests the need for VCTS in the TAFs. Based on latest HRRR guidance, have included VCTS at KPIA between 17z and 20z...then further south to the I-72 terminals after 21z. Winds will initially be southerly at less than 10kt tonight, then will veer to W/SW and increase to 10-15kt ahead of the approaching front Friday morning. Once the front passes, winds will become northwesterly across the board by mid to late afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
747 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The shower and thunderstorm activity across WY this evening should sweep through wrn Nebraska overnight. A forecast update is in place using the HRRR, RAP and short term model blend. This delays the arrival of the showers and thunderstorms across WY by a few hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The primary concern for the short term will revolve around the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms both this evening and tomorrow. Currently, a cold front has progressed through the area this morning, and is now positioned southwest-northeast from far northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. Aloft, an upper shortwave, evident in GOES upper level WV imagery, is progressing across portions of Utah and western Wyoming. The aforementioned shortwave will continue to push eastward this evening, with increasing ascent aloft as it approaches. This should promote widely scattered thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/Colorado through late afternoon. Thunderstorms are then expected to push eastward through the Panhandle this evening, impacting areas primarily along and south of Highway 2. Forecast soundings indicate marginal deep layer shear, on the order of 25 to 35kts. CAPE profiles remain long and skinny, within a plume of increasing subtropical moisture aloft. H7-H5 lapse rates remain somewhat meager (7-7.5C/km) as well, pointing to a limited risk for large hail in any sustained updrafts. However, nearly dry adiabatic low level lapse rates and inverted-v profiles indicated in soundings suggest the potential for strong/damaging outflow winds. Convection wanes locally after midnight and much of the overnight is anticipated to remain dry. The cold front will lift northward through tomorrow morning, reaching near the SD/NE border by late afternoon. Yet another shortwave will dive across the Rockies through the evening, helping to promote additional convective initiation. Deep layer shear remains somewhat marginal again tomorrow, though increasing mid- level flow in advance of the shortwave should promote updraft organization. High-res guidance remains in good agreement with respect to initiation location (across the high terrain in far eastern Wyoming into northwest Nebraska) though confidence wanes with respect to storm mode and evolution. An increasing southerly LLJ into the warm frontal boundary would suggest convection should persist through much of the late evening into the early overnight hours. The more aggressive high-res members show cold pool development and a progressive MCS through much of the Sandhills and into central Nebraska overnight. Trends with respect to storm mode will need to be monitored, as any upscale growth would lead to increasing damaging wind potential. Convection exits the area to the south and east prior to sunrise Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Although temperatures are expected to fall back into the 80s on Saturday, model guidance indicates that temperatures will return to above the climatological norm through the extended period. These hot temperatures will persist as the upper level ridge amplifies in western portions of the US early next week. Daytime temperatures in the 90s are expected across the region with temperatures peaking into the upper 90s and low 100s on Tuesday. Temperatures only ease back into the upper 80s and low 90s to round out the week, however ensemble guidance is implying yet another heat spell by the weekend. As the upper level ridge amplifies across the Plains through the week, ensemble guidance suggests that 500mb heights may approach or exceed the 97th percentile by the weekend. Southerly flow will allow WAA to advect into the region which is suggested by the ensemble guidance. Ensembles suggest that the 700mb and 850mb temperatures approach or exceed the 90th percentile leading to well above normal temperatures across the region. This is in agreement with what the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows with the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook being `likely above normal` for the region. Besides the heat, limited precipitation is expected in the extended forecast. Low pressure is expected to linger over the PNW coast allowing for numerous shortwaves to impact our area. These shortwaves bring in sporadic chances of low-end PoPs to the forecast throughout the week. If precipitation does occur, widespread QPF amounts are unlikely and will remain localized. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Aviation concerns focus on early evening shower and weak convection development. Activity for the most part has only skirted the edges of LBF airspace and expected motion will keep it out of the terminal. Additional activity will approach from the west later tonight and early Friday morning and have included -TSRA mention to account for this. Gusty, erratic winds cannot be ruled out with this activity but overall trend will be for thunderstorms to weaken with eastward extent so will need to monitor closely. Attention then turns to Friday afternoon thunderstorm chances but current thoughts are for this threat to fall just beyond the end of the forecast period with the greatest impacts expected at VTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Viken/Brown AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
907 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 No significant changes to the going forecast this evening, though did slow the arrival of chance pops across the far southeast part of the cwa into early Friday morning. Also lowered wind gusts a bit for the remainder of the overnight hours. Mild and somewhat breezy warm sector remains in place across the forecast this area this evening. Gusts have diminished since late afternoon, though we will likely continue to see a few sporadic gusts near 20 mph at times overnight as 30-35 kt low level jet spreads over our shallow decoupled boundary layer. Otherwise, main weather feature is a cold front to our northwest which stretches from unseasonably deep low pressure near Hudson Bay, through the upper Mississippi Valley and into the Central Plains. This front will slowly push southeast overnight, moving into northern IL during the pre-dawn hours. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will increase along/ahead of the front during this time in confluent flow ahead of the approaching front, and the west- southwesterly low level jet provides some moistening in the 750-800 mb layer. High-res CAM guidance continues to show some spread in solutions with respects to coverage into early Friday, though the greatest chances look to remain across the northwest half of the cwa (roughly northwest of a UIN-PNT-VPZ line) through mid-morning. Chances likely increase late morning into Friday afternoon however, especially along and south of the front where diurnal destabilization will be greatest. Broad larger scale forcing in the form of a positive-tilt upper trough and the right rear entrance region of an upper level jet streak will support synoptic scale ascent, though it remains to be seen if any convectively-enhanced mid-level vort will emerge from loosely organized convection currently upstream across KS/NE. At this point only shaved slight chance pops a bit in the southeast early Friday based on timing depicted by current suite of CAM guidance. Could see being able to trim pops from the north a little more quickly in the afternoon, but will hold off without the full suite of 00Z runs available at this time. Ratzer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Through Friday night... Most of the area is sitting underneath some mostly sunny skies on this hot and dry afternoon. Parts of the western CWA are seeing some cirrus moving overhead, a precursor to the approaching cold front, which will steadily propagate over the rest of the CWA over the next several hours. Mostly cloudy skies will follow in behind overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, temperatures in the upper 80`s and lower 90`s are accompanied by some breezy conditions with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph, hence the elevated fire risk today. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60`s and lower 70`s tonight with winds dying down through the evening. Tomorrow will be an eventful day weatherwise with a few rounds of rain likely and thunderstorm chances that will be occupying most of the day across the area. This is the result of a cold front passing through the CWA through the first half of tomorrow. This front is currently draped across NW Iowa and eastern Minnesota. As the front approaches, a notable amount of moisture surges into the low and mid levels following a very dry day today, although, admittedly, moisture advection ahead of the front isn`t overly impressive. A line of broken showers and potentially some embedded thunderstorms is expected to move in along the boundary as it enters the area from the northwest. Best guess on timing is roughly 4AM for rain to start moving into the far northwestern CWA and will gradually propagate southeastward from here. A couple of light thunderstorms are certainly possible along the front during this time with several hundred joules of CAPE stored up ahead of and along the boundary. The better chances for storms a little later in the morning and into the afternoon. It`s still questionable how much instability will build up ahead of the front tomorrow. Although, we know that the southern and eastern CWA will manage to accumulate the most instability simply given that these areas will experience more daytime heating prior to frontal passage. Guidance is showing anywhere between approximately 800 and 1,200 joules of CAPE building along and south of the Kankakee River basin which should do well to result in at least a few thunderstorms as the front passes through in the late morning and early afternoon. Decent low level lapse rates with ample midlevel moisture in conjunction with a fair amount of CAPE and perhaps a little help from an upper level jet streak could result in some stronger storms featuring heavy rain and gusty winds in the far southern CWA. A predominantly zonal shear profile with some backing occurring in the mid levels should keep severe chances rather low, but they are non-zero. The front will exit the area to the southeast by the early-mid afternoon. There is a good signal for post-frontal rain and storm chances through tomorrow afternoon and evening. Perhaps the biggest question revolving around post-frontal storm chances is how much instability can build following the frontal passage. Areas along and north of I- 80 appear the most favorable for post-frontal storms given that the front should pass over these areas early enough to still benefit from plenty of diurnal heating and accumulate a good deal of CAPE for the afternoon and evening. However, there is a large spread among models in how much post-frontal CAPE will build up. The RAP is by far the most aggressive throwing up over 2,500 joules of CAPE over the western and southern suburbs in the afternoon. However, this is a rather sizable outlier with most guidance sitting in the ballpark of around 1,000 joules while some models are forecasting closer to 500 joules. One thing to consider, however, is once the front passes over, any storms that pop up will have to be primarily heat-driven with an LFC near 825 hPa. There is some signal for a bit of a kink in the mid level trough with some enhanced flow, though I wouldn`t quite classify it as a shortwave as the signal is very subtle. Convective-allowing guidance is roughly 50/50 on simulating post-frontal storms vs just some scattered showers. Overnight and into daybreak Saturday, the area will be primarily dry with steadily clearing skies and perhaps just a couple of isolated showers in the southern CWA. Doom && .LONG TERM... Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Saturday through Thursday... The weather messages for the holiday weekend into next week: * Primarily dry Saturday-Sunday * Warm Sunday into Independence Day, with increasing humidity Monday though still not to high impact levels * Gradually increasing potential for a more active pattern later Independence Day through Tuesday and possibly beyond This portion of the forecast starts on Saturday morning with the cold front noted in the short term having stalled well to the south of the area and weak high pressure of 1019 mb prevailing over the region. This high will have ushered in some drier low- level air, characterized by dew points mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Onshore flow, albeit light, will keep lakeside readings about 10 degrees cooler than inland mid 80s. Overall forecast soundings with these low level conditions are not supportive of pop up showers or storms. A subtle short wave in the Upper Missouri Valley on Saturday is shown to slowly weaken as it progresses toward the region Saturday night. So the chance of a shower or storm really seems on the low end. Sunday is more of the same in terms of any chances of rain being low. Soundings do try to show more of a cumulus signature and possibly a little CAPE above that, but still marginal low-level moisture, and a lack of any low-level confluence or subtle height falls indicate the rain chances stay small. Temperatures will inch warmer on the back side of the high and flow turns more southerly. This will still be weak enough to allow lakeside cooling into Illinois. A couple 90s for highs are possible. A pattern shift then happens, largely aided by the anomalously deep upper level low in eastern Canada shifting eastward and responsive low-level warm and moist advection building into the region from the south-southwest. Height rises build in during the latter part of the weekend into the start of Monday on the synoptic scale, however guidance does show a greater signal for short wave energy translating from the lee of the Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Corn Belt region. This aligns with where the low-level theta-e return flow will be, and has had two consecutive runs of long range guidance with the look of a possible MCS pattern later Monday into Tuesday. With the forecast guidance solutions at present, our forecast area would be in/near the stripe of more active weather as the Plains low-level jet points more toward our region. With modulation due to convective effects common in such a setup, it is just simply too far to get into any specifics, or to improve much from a "chance of thunderstorms" forecast for that Monday into midweek period. But will have to keep an eye out for some possible heavy rain / severe thunderstorm chances. This pattern will also dictate temperatures. For now, Independence Day does looks hot with highs around 90 if unimpeded by convection or convective clouds, which is most favored in the southern CWA. Dew points look to be around 70, making it the most humid day of the long holiday weekend. MTF && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... The primary aviation concerns through the TAF period are: * Weakening winds this evening * Chances for precipitation tomorrow morning and afternoon, including a chance for thunder * Trends in wind direction through the TAF period. Breezy southwest winds this evening will continue to slacken with gusts becoming far less common over the next few hours. Sustained winds near or just about 10 kt should continue through the overnight hours as a 30 to 35kt LLJ increases overhead. Toward daybreak, winds may trend toward 270 degrees/westerly as a weakening surface front approaches from the north. However, confidence is lower than average on exactly how fast winds will veer tomorrow morning. High resolution model guidance continues to advertise the potential for a subtle wave to develop in the Central Plains tonight and move over northern Illinois at some point tomorrow morning, allowing for a period of scattered showers at the terminals. However, a range of outcomes remains in the available model guidance, forcing lower than average coverage in a single, deterministic TAF forecast. If the wave arrives toward daybreak, a 2-4 hour period of showers would become possible at all terminals ending by noon. However, should the wave arrive later toward early afternoon, chances for thunderstorms at the terminals would increase given building instability. Cigs with any shower or thunderstorm should remain VFR with a mid-level deck likely prevailing regardless. After collaboration with CWSU ZAU, opted to maintain the inherited structure of 6-7 hours of prevailing VCSH with targeted 3-5 hour TEMPOs groups for explicit SHRA but with slightly later timing than the previous TAF package. Adjustments appear all but likely as trends emerge in the 00Z suite of high resolution model guidance and upstream observations. With a weak surface pressure gradient expected to be in place tomorrow afternoon, winds may flip northeasterly off Lake Michgian at all but RFD by late morning. Toward the end of the TAF period, winds should become light and variable and clouds should clear. Borchardt && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1028 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The surface ridge which brought us the past few days of spectacular late June weather is in the process of washing out/moving east. Temperatures are already a few degrees warmer than yesterday, but dew points are remaining in the 50s for the most part which is actually producing a heat index that`s lower than the air temperature at this time! Unfortunately this low humidity will not prevail, and higher dew points are already sneaking up the Mississippi Valley toward us as evidenced both in the surface observations, and a field of cumulus stretching out on the southern periphery of the drier air. Upper 60s/lower 70s dew point temperatures will creep up into our area tonight into early Friday, just in time to be met by a weak cold front which will drift into northern Missouri/central Illinois tomorrow morning. All short range guidance including the CAMs produce some precip over our area on Friday...mainly during the afternoon and evening. The GFS and RAP are showing 2000+ J/Kg MLCAPE Friday afternoon coupled with 30-40kts of deep layer shear. This is certainly enough to produce strong/severe thunderstorms along the front Friday afternoon, however low level convergence doesn`t seem to be particularly strong, particularly as forecast by the GFS. Coverage may therefore be limited...but SPC`s new DY2 marginal risk in the vicinity of the front looks very reasonable. Storms should diminish with loss of daytime heating Friday evening...although weak warm advection aloft across Missouri may continue to produce isolated to scattered convection through much of the night, particularly toward dawn Saturday morning as convection which develops over the Plains spreads east. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Latest guidance shows the flow aloft becoming quasi-zonal by Saturday morning. The lack of upper level support will cause the front to stall over the Mid Mississippi Valley and remain quasi- stationary at least through Sunday morning, if not into Monday. The position of the front will largely be determined by convection along it through the weekend. However most deterministic guidance shows it settling across southern Missouri and far southern Illinois or western Kentucky Saturday, and waving back north due to southerly low level flow, then storms form along it and is pushed south again. As with the position of the front, temperatures will be widely influenced by clouds and precipitation this weekend, particularly on Saturday which looks potentially wetter than Sunday. Temperatures may not get out of the 70s and low 80s where afternoon storms develop, but areas that receive full sunshine could easily top 90 either day. The latest deterministic guidance points to northern Missouri and west central Illinois as being cooler with more rain Saturday afternoon as a short wave passes through the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valley...however confidence in this panning out exactly as forecast is low since this wave looks suspiciously like grid scale convective feedback generated by convection over the Plains late Friday night. Indeed, the NBM probabilistic forecast is indicating considerable uncertainty with the temperature forecast. It shows the 75th and 25th percentile high temperature forecasts for Saturday in our CWFA as about 92 and 84 respectively. The 90th and 10th percentiles are 94 and 80! Sunday`s spread in high temperatures is only a couple of degrees tighter. The NBM deterministic guidance leans toward the higher end of that range both days (except in northern Missouri/west central Illinois on Saturday due to clouds and precip in the afternoon), and I agree with the warmer temperatures...assuming there will be breaks in the clouds and showers. The front will finally get shoved back to the north on Monday and Summer will return in full force. An upper level ridge will build east from the Great Plains for Monday through Wednesday, bringing temperatures solidly back into the 90s. There may be some afternoon thunderstorms each day, but the potential doesn`t look that great under the influence of the ridge, so have kept PoPs in the low chance/slight chance range. Another short wave may break through the ridge Wednesday night/Thursday to bring a weak cold front and possibly some rain to the region; however predicting a FROPA 7 days out in July is always a low-confidence forecast. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 VFR flight conditions will prevail across the region tonight, and potentially through the entire TAF period. The only threat to aviation interests will be the threat for isolated thunderstorms along a cold front that sags south tomorrow afternoon into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The best chance for any convection will be in the afternoon along the front, but latest guidance is indicating that storms will be more isolated than previously forecast. While VCTS remains in the TAFs at the terminals for a period of time tomorrow afternoon, it is quite possible that no impacts are realized given how isolated the convection could be. As the front passes through, winds will shift out of the north/northeast Friday night. MRB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 75 96 72 87 / 0 30 40 50 Quincy 69 86 65 81 / 5 40 20 50 Columbia 69 93 69 85 / 0 40 40 60 Jefferson City 69 96 70 87 / 0 30 30 50 Salem 71 94 71 87 / 0 20 30 50 Farmington 70 94 71 88 / 0 20 20 60 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
731 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Through early this evening) Issued at 314 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2022 ...Strong to severe storms late this afternoon into this evening... Clearing has been occurring from W to E so far today, which is assisting with recharging the atmosphere for a redevelopment of storms. Latest RAP analysis courtesy of SPC`s mesoanalysis page indicates that 500 to 1000 ML-CAPE is building across the Wrn half of the forecast area with the cap slowly eroding. Satellite imagery is showing spatial cloud growth ahead of the previously advertised approaching frontal boundary with some weak returns appearing on regional radar underneath. Over the next several hours, expect this general trend to continue, supported by a rather warm, moist airmass at/near the surface. While there are some variances in timing amongst the various deterministic model guidance, general consensus is a 4 to 5pm EDT start time for convective initiation, although may initially struggle until the cap is able to be overcome. From 6pm EDT onward will be the highest chances for convection, particularly of the strong to severe kind. With 50+ knots of 0-6km bulk shear, 30+ kts within the 0-3km layer, low- to mid- level LRs of at least 7 C/km already in place, and around 100 or so m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH, strong to severe storms are still expected. Wind will be the primary threat but hail will be possible given the LRs, lowering fz lvls, and at least some turning within cells. Moderate rain will be highly probable in storms, with locally heavy rain possible. PWATs aren`t overly impressive for this time of year, but as alluded to already, plenty of at least LL moisture abounds. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 135 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2022 Medium range models and their ensembles suggest a relatively benign period of weather after this evening with more rain chances returning for Independence Day. Behind the passing cold front tonight, models suggest a mid-level low to slowly shift east to the north of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a low pressure system off the Pac NW will drive a deep trof along the W Coast, forcing a downstream ridge to build across the Rockies, with more zonal to NW flow across the Upper Great Lakes. As the weekend wraps up, this trof shifts inland as the ridge axis shifts east across the CONUS. This transitory period will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the UP for the holiday festivities as a LLJ and baroclinic axis shifts through the Upper Midwest. By the middle of next week, models suggest a broad, but weak ridge to remain across the CONUS with relatively good agreement in the models. Look for temps to remain near- to below-normal through most of the period, trending towards above normal by the middle of next week. As a cold front shifts across the UP tonight, tsra will be ongoing/developing across the western/central UP. Latest RAP guidance suggests the cold front to move into the wern UP around 23/00z this evening as daytime heating(though limited some by AM clouds) and gusty winds efficiently mix out the boundary layer. Impressive low-level lapse rates combined with a cold front boundary should be able to overcome a small cap seen on model soundings. While the instability isn`t overly impressive, there is sufficient amount of shear that should be able to bring a threat of severe weather. Low-level shear for any potential tornadic threat will be tied directly to the frontal axis, as winds become unidirectional behind the fropa...though this threat appears quite limited. Rather strong winds and isolated larger hail appears to be the main threats. With a sfc high pressure system moving in behind the front, the column begins to dry out quickly heading into Friday. PWAT values near 1.75 inches Thursday, quickly fall to around 0.4 inches by Friday, and will remain low through at least Saturday. This sfc high pressure will drift across the UP through the weekend, bringing tranquil conditions across the area. By Sunday, the UP will be in a transitional pattern with southerly flow returning in the afternoon. This will begin to bring in increasing amounts of moisture for at least the west half; however, with the high pressure shifting to the Eastern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon, NE flow off the higher terrain of Ontario could bring elevated fire wx conditions for the east half of the UP. The pattern becomes a bit more unsettled for Independence Day into Tuesday as a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone will bring multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 730 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2022 TSRA and RA ends over IWD in the next hour or two, whereas SAW should begin seeing SHRA and TSRAs move in within the next hour. Some hail and strong winds could be seen with these TSRAs early this evening, as a few storms could be severe; MVFR conditions or lower could be seen for a few minutes in the strongest parts of these storms. Once we get past midnight, expect much calmer conditions, with winds veering to the NW and VFR conditions dominating for the rest of the period as a high pressure ridge moves overhead. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 135 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2022 SW winds today will veer to the W to NW tonight behind a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this frontal axis, which could bring some localized gusty winds. By Friday, surface high pressure will move over the lake, bringing benign conditions through the weekend. As the high pressure moves into the area, brief SW winds up to 20 knots will be possible across the west half of the lake through Friday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms return for Independence Day into Tuesday, but winds appear on the lighter side outside of any thunderstorms, before another high pressure crosses the lake Wednesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...lg LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...TAP MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
320 PM MDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Weak high pressure over the region will keep weather fairly quiet and temperatures slightly above normal today and tomorrow. High- resolution models keep monsoonal moisture restricted to the far eastern portion of our CWA, resulting in isolated showers and limited convection across the eastern highlands this evening and again tomorrow. The QPF associated with these showers and storms is unimpressive and totals will generally range from a trace to 0.15" tomorrow afternoon through evening. Expect breezy conditions across the Central Mtns. tonight and again tomorrow, as well as for the Upper Snake River Plane. Winds across the ridgetops of the Central Mtns. could reach 30 mph tomorrow evening, with elevated winds shifting further south across the Upper Snake Plain during the later evening. Cropp .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday night. There are two halves to this forecast. Up through Mon night is the unstable, showery, and breezy to windy part. The Tue through Thu night forecast is a dry and hot forecast. So, for part I a low moving in from the Pacific, its low center getting onshore Sun night. The southwest to southerly flow ahead of the low brings up subtropical moisture and, combined with heating, generates afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Sat through Mon. On Sat, the threat of showers and thunderstorms is nearly everywhere, but barely gets to chance threat in the upper Snake highlands. On Sun and Mon, the showers and thunderstorms have a greater chance of occurrence, getting to nearly likely at the ID- MT border, but should cover only the central Idaho mountains, the upper Snake highlands south to Swan Valley, and the extreme north end of the Snake River plain. On Independence Day, the shower and thunderstorm threat is limited to the northern half of the central Idaho mountains and the ID-MT border region. The low will pass to the north, and on Mon it sweeps a trough through eastern Idaho during the day. This will mainly bring breezy to windy conditions to the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River plain, with the strongest wind (gusts up to 30 mph) over the Mud Lake region, Arco Desert, and INL property. The wind will decrease after 900 pm to 10 to 15 mph, so perhaps not too impactful for the nighttime fireworks shows. So stay tuned. For the second half of the period, the upper level ridge reasserts itself over the northern Great Basin. Strong warming will return temperatures to the lower 90s in the Snake River plain by Wed, and middle 90s on Thu. There are even some outlier guidance indicating temperatures over 100 deg F for some valley locations on and after Thu. Wind should be light and slope-valley driven with the upper level ridge axis to the east. Messick && .AVIATION...Just some occasional mid-level cloudiness, but the HRRR indicates some isolated showers with the second round of clouds that comes late tonight, around 01/05Z until 01/11Z when considering all the airdromes. As these showers and clouds move in, the wind gets fairly variable, the returns to the northerly to easterly flow that is typical of drainage or slope-valley wind. The only exception to the airports for the clouds and showers is KSUN, which is far enough north and west to stay SKC and have its normal slope-valley wind, which should stay light. Messick && .FIRE WEATHER...Weak showers developed over the southern Sawtooth NF and the Caribou-Targhee NF, but thunderstorm activity should stay south of the Idaho border, in Utah. However, there is a slight risk for the Bear Lake basin to see a thunderstorm tonight. Otherwise, another round of light showers is possible late tonight over the same area. On Fri, as a low in the Pacific gets closer, the wind shifts more and more southerly, bringing up warm and moist air. This will bring back thunderstorm activity, but cloud cover will make the temperature change very little. Humidity will be up slightly, with fewer areas of afternoon humidity getting below 15 percent. Showers and thunderstorms continue for Sat. For Sun and Mon, the showers and thunderstorms will be limited more to the northern half of the forecast area. The low will have made land fall in Oregon on Sun night. This will bring it close enough where a weak cold front, rotating from south to north, will bring breezy to windy conditions to the entire forecast area. On Tue, a fairly quick and radical change develops as high pressure returns. Temperatures are expect to spike up into the 90s for the lower elevations by Wed, and humidity will crash strongly. On the brighter side, the thunderstorm activity ceases. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
729 PM PDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Another day of isolated thunderstorm activity expected for eastern Mohave County today before dry air moves into the region. Troughing will bring gusty south-southwest winds this holiday weekend, resulting in increased fire danger for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Otherwise, temperatures will drop below average for the start of the work week, slowly increasing into next weekend. && .Update...Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to dissipate this evening and should end by 9 PM with mostly clear skies expected overnight. We can expect to see another day of isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms mainly across northern Mohave County as drier air begins to work in from the west. This will bring breezy to windy conditions over the weekend along with an increase in fire weather concerns. && PREV DISCUSSION 137 PM PDT Thu Jun 30 2022 .DISCUSSION...Today through next Thursday. One more day of isolated convection expected across portions of Mohave County this afternoon. PWATs upward of an inch continue across the western Mojave Desert, extending as far north as the Arizona Strip. Despite numerous days of isolated-to-scattered convection in the area this week, the low levels of Mohave County remain dry, as shown by forecast inverted-V HRRR soundings. CAPE values in northern Mohave are modest, around 250 J/kg, with DCAPE between 1000 and 1500 J/kg. As such, gusty winds will be the primary threat from storms that develop, but isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly in the event of training storms. PWATs will be quick to retreat through the day on Friday as the monsoonal high shifts eastward. The primary focus of the forecast period becomes an incoming dry trough that will enhance fire danger across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona through Independence Day weekend. In general, skies will be clear and temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal normals, making for a seemingly pleasant (respectively) Independence Day weekend. However, due to the incoming trough, ECMWF EFI shows seasonally abnormal winds picking up across the southern Great Basin this weekend. These gusty south-southwest winds will pick up through the day on Saturday, with sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Winds will peak on Sunday, with gusts 30-40 mph across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Lincoln County, Nevada will experience the strongest winds on Sunday, with gusts to 45 mph possible as the closed low associated with this trough pushes inland. Finally, south-southwest winds return on Monday with similar speeds as Saturday. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has been hoisted for southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona from Saturday morning through Monday evening due to strong winds, afternoon relative humidities in the lower-teens to single-digits, and increased firework activity. Outdoor burning and firework usage is not advised in these areas due to the increased chance of wildfire starts and spread. Otherwise, temperatures will bottom out on Monday with 4-6 degrees below seasonal normals as the trough moves northeastward out of the region. Heights will rise through the remainder of the week as ridging builds back into the Desert Southwest, with temperatures above-average going into next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...Increased fire danger expected this weekend due to an influx of dry air from an incoming trough. Gusty south-southwest winds across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona will pick up Saturday, peak Sunday afternoon, and gradually diminish on Monday. Strongest winds will focus in the southeastern Great Basin. Coupled with afternoon relative humidities in the single-digits to upper- teens, there will be increased chances of wildfire starts and spreads. Fire Weather Watch in effect Saturday morning through Monday evening. Outdoor burning and firework activity during this time is ill-advised. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...South southwest winds gusting around 25 knots will settle down to around 10 knots sustained after sunset. There could be a short period of southeast winds Friday morning before the gusty south southwest winds return around midday. Slightly stronger gusts are expected Saturday with the strongest gusts likely Sunday. No operationally significant clouds or weather expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Aside from isolated thunderstorms in eastern Mohave County this afternoon and early evening, dry weather is expected areawide through the weekend. Southwesterly breezes are expected each afternoon and evening, with gusts 20 to 25 knots Friday afternoon increasing a few knots Saturday afternoon and a few more knots Sunday afternoon, which is expected to be the strongest wind day. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Gorelow DISCUSSION...Varian AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter