Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/30/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A cool front has pushed across much of western and central ND this evening. This front has interacted with severe storms in SD to destabilize the atmosphere enough to make strong to severe thunderstorms in southwestern and south central North Dakota. These storms are moving slowly northeast and are entering into an environment very favorable for strong winds with DCAPE over 1000 and 0 to 3 km shear up to 30 knots. Shear vectors are mostly parallel to the boundary, so multi clusters are still expected. However, with high amounts of shear and MUCAPE, large hail up to 2 inches are still possible. All things considered have expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch a tier of counties westward to include the ongoing storms and their propagation. UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect across far south central and southeastern North Dakota. Surface low remains across SD right now, with a frontal boundary starting to show up in ND and on the radar. Much of the convection has been confined to the warmer sector of this boundary in South Dakota early this evening. As the night progresses through cooling aloft will erode the cap, and this disturbance and front feature in SD will shift ever so slightly north. The result, strong to severe storms across mainly southern ND, mostly along and south of Interstate 94. DCAPE is well over 1000 J/KG in these areas, with 0 to 3 KM shear 20 to 40 knots. So the main threat is likely wind, if enough can mix down from the overall elevated storms. There is enough shear and cape for large hail, although the size may be somewhat limited given the overall lack of expected rotation in the storms. Thus the main hazards for the watch areas will be hail up to golf balls in size, and winds up to 70 mph and perhaps an isolated 75 to 80 mph. Lack of surface base and supercell storms should limit the tornado threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are still possible, although the threat for severe weather is diminishing, especially in the north. On the backside of the mentioned front are cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints limiting instability. Shear is still strong, and if enough lift can initiate and sustain thunderstorms then perhaps a strong to severe storm is possible. The overall threat for severe weather is from now until around or shortly after midnight. Those in the watch area should keep an eye on the weather and have multiple ways to receive warnings. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The severe weather threat late today and into tonight remains the main forecast challenge through the short term. Nothing has really changed since the last update regarding the afternoon severe potential across the north central: An impulse over northeastern Montana looks to be the trigger for any potential development across the north central in the 21z to 00z time frame. Guidance differs on the exact path of this vort max with the GFS bringing more energy south of the International Border and the NAM giving us more of a glancing blow. The big question will be whether the outskirts of this wave will be enough to break through some of the capping noted on forecast soundings. If storms do develop here and can become established, they should become rapidly severe with very large hail up to two inches and damaging winds to 70 mph as the primary threats. However, it should be noted that there is a scenario where capping cannot be overcome by the relatively weak forcing and storms do not even develop at all. It should also be noted that the past couple runs of the HRRR have backed off on storm development in the north central this afternoon. We are in the process of sending up a special 20z sounding to give us a better look at the inhibition present. An initial glance thus far shows significant capping remains in place with ~25 C temps at around 860mb. So at the moment, afternoon development still looks to be a couple hours away, if at all. Attention then turns to the more energetic wave that will come out of South Dakota tonight and clip our south. Storms should be ongoing across northern South Dakota and will likely approach the south central North Dakota border around 00z, focused along a surface warm front under moderate instability. Shear will be a bit weaker here than the north and the vectors should generally be parallel to the boundary. Thus, we expect storm mode to be more linear with multicell and perhaps a few embedded supercell structures. The main hazards with these storms will be hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph. Another round of storms may accompany the cold front passage towards 06z or so, but these storms may not be as strong given waning instability. Some showers and storms may linger southeast Thursday morning as the wave departs, but most of the day will be characterized by cooler temperatures and a mostly sunny sky as weak high pressure moves in across the west. Highs will be in the 70s. Cyclonic flow across the northeast could spark an isolated shower or two across the Turtle Mountains and vicinity in the afternoon but most will see dry weather. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Ridging to our west nudges closer on Friday, bumping highs back up into the mid 70s to lower 80s. We will generally stay in northwest flow aloft through the weekend with various weak waves moving through. Better chances for precipitation then come into the forecast late Sunday through midweek as a western trough deamplifies and pushes into the Northern Plains. There are some signals in the extended guidance for severe thunderstorm potential in the Sunday through Wednesday time frame but plenty of uncertainty remains regarding specific days/timing/details. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period, with some MVFR conditions under thunderstorms and lingering clouds at times. Rest of tonight, the threat for thunderstorms still remains, although has shifted to mainly along and south Interstate 94. Here strong to severe storms are still possible with damaging wind and large hail the main threat. Confidence was only high enough to include VCTS at this point for most affected sites, although a TEMPO group has been added this evening in the KJMS TAF. Sites not in this area are not expected to see severe weather at this time, and chances for thunderstorms are fairly isolated. Thunderstorms move out of the area overnight tonight. Winds will shift to the northwest and become breezy through the day Thursday. Some lingering low VFR to perhaps MVFR clouds are then possible through the day on Thursday, along with a few isolated showers. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 At the lunch hour, GOES East visible imagery shows numerous CU across the Coastal Plains and out west over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. These two regions will be the focus for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates that instability over the Hill Country and just west of the I-35 corridor is virtually non- existent as dewpoints are noticeably lower in this region. No deep layer shear is present either, so any storms that form will be pulse- like in nature and short-lived, mostly dependent on the seabreeze and outflow boundary interactions. Any storms that manage to develop should dissipate by 00Z with passing clouds and fair weather expected overnight. Thursday will be the more intriguing day of this short term forecast, as a weak tropical disturbance moves inland, bringing the threat for showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region. At this time, forecast PWATs from the HREF approaching 1.6-2.0", along with some decent instability and surface moisture to work with. Global models have trended further west and weaker with this system, with a marked drop in rain chances along the I-35 corridor, mainly confining those higher probabilities to the Coastal Plains, Brazos Valley, and Upper Texas Coast. We will remain somewhat optimistic and keep some PoPs in play up to and along the I-35 corridor, but the odds of a good soaking rain appear to have decreased somewhat over the last 24 hours. With regard to temperatures, yet another "cool" morning is expected Thursday morning, but not quite as cool as this morning, generally with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Afternoon highs will be back to the usual we would expect in late June/early July, in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Model guidance is now in rather good agreement that a trough or weak low will have moved onshore over or just to the east of the US-77 corridor. How long it`s influence sticks around is still in question, but shower and storm chances are currently in the forecast along and east of I-35 through the day on Saturday. Coverage of rain across our Coastal Plains counties is currently expected to be highest on Friday. Official forecast amounts are under 0.5" across our far SE counties, and we anticipate a likelihood that any locally heavy rain would remain outside our area of responsibility. However the WPC ERO for Friday into Friday night does include a Marginal Risk of excessive rain across Lavaca and eastern DeWitt Counties, where a localized worst case of 2-3" of rain is possible Friday. This would only be enough to cause issues if it came on top of heavy rain on Thursday and Thursday night. Seasonally cool highs are expected over our eastern counties as a result of added cloud cover, with highs of 89-93, however near the Rio Grande highs may exceed 100 once again. As the low slowly pulls away over the weekend, ridging will begin to amplify across the central CONUS. While there are some low-end chances for isolated showers and storms mainly west Saturday evening, signs point towards a gradual return to warmer, drier than normal conditions returning with daily high temperatures slowly warming each day back into the upper 90s to mid 100s by next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A thunderstorm is moving across DRT causing strong, gusty winds. It should move out of the area within the hour. Once it`s gone all terminals will be VFR for the rest of this period. Winds will be less than 10 kts tonight. Winds Thursday will be from the east through southeast at 10 to 15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 94 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 94 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 95 73 92 / 10 20 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 73 92 / 0 10 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 99 77 100 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 91 / 0 10 0 30 Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 94 73 92 / 10 20 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 93 75 90 / 20 30 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 74 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Morris Long-Term...KCW Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Cold front appears to be just west of our CWA, with surface troughing still in place over our CWA and a Theta-E gradient along a stalled warm front in our south. The window is still there for severe potential mainly in our south along the stalled frontal zone. According to SPC objective analysis MU CAPE exceeds 3500 J/KG and DCAPE is still hovering around 2000 J/KG near ND/SD border where very steep mid level lapse rates are in place. The atmosphere remains strongly capped and this activity is likely to remain elevated as is moves into our CWA. As upstream clusters move east there is still enough shear for brief surges or linear features that could create greater wind impact potential. At this point damaging winds are the most likely threat, hail threat is probably on the marginal side, and tornado threat is minimized due to the elevated nature of convection (still can`t be ruled out as 0-3km shear remains 30-35kt). Window still appears to be over the next several hours and after that any elevated clusters are likely to become less organized. UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Strong cap in place locally and limited synoptic ascent has so far limited initiation and latest HRRR runs have reflected the delay in initiation and significant lowered confidence in severe potential further north. Instability/shear will still be in place, so I don`t want to completely rule out activity further north but right now better potential is trending towards our south. Regarding our southern CWA: Upstream trends in SD show several organizing clusters within region of weakening CINh and a bit better synoptic ascent associated with an impulse within west- southwest flow moving out of WY. Ahead of this activity ML CAPE axis of 1500-2500 J/KG remains in place and is shown by RAP to linger in our southern CWA through the late evening before transitioning to a much more elevated layer and weakening. Mean winds and corfidi vectors both initially favor a west to east track, however after 03Z take on a northeast component as the cold front starts to arrive in the northwest and prefrontal troughing shifts. Last few HRRR runs support this upstream activity in SD eventually spreading into SE ND after 9Z (10PM) and into west central MN closer to 5-6Z (midnight). During the same period instability may be decreasing/becoming more elevated. Still, 0-3km and effective shear are adequate for sustained severe potential, though with lowered confidence in supercells and more elevated MCS tendencies trends may transition more towards wind/hail. How far north and how long that activity maintains it strength is a tough call at this point. Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area in the south through 1AM is covering this threat for the later evening period. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Focus will be given to potentially impactful severe storms this evening. Hazards from strongest storms include chance for very large hail at least 2 inches, winds to 75 mph, and still cannot rule out a brief, isolated tornado. Moderate to strong instability is developing in the Dakotas given increasing low level moisture content and warming temps amidst clear skies. GOES WV and JPSS ALPW still show a stout EML advecting out of WY/MT into the Dakotas over the warming, moistening PBL contributing to strong instability. However this stout EML brings a capping inversion in which sufficient forcing will have to overcome. There is a mid level wave noted on GOES WV moving ENE across far northern MT into southern SK/MB, with attendant dryline followed by cold front still in MT. This wave is also contributing to ample shear across much ND. There is also a pre-frontal trough across western/central ND noted by northerly winds next to southerly within a similar thermodynamic air mass. While this prefrontal trough and perhaps eventual dryline could provide the foci need for initiation, better synoptic forcing aloft looks to miss the area staying in Canada, as well as the absence of better sfc convergence along a sfc boundary looks to favor the capping inversion to suppress sustained convection for discrete supercells as was once depicted by 12 Z guidance. However, we are still not discounting this conditional threat of discrete supercells into eastern ND just yet, but rather the probability appears to have decreased. Should robust convection initiate, isolated, discrete supercells capable of all hazards will be possible, some of which may be longer tracked if they can sustain themselves internally. Strongest storms will be capable of very large hail. In addition to the SK/MB shortwave trough, a second mid level impulse is moving ENE out of WY into SD/NE as noted on satellite imagery. This impulse is already developing clusters of elevated storms moving into SD, with a large unstable warm sector downstream across most of SD. There is some indication that these clusters will continue east, perhaps congealing into an MCS across SD this afternoon. With the warm sector extending into our southern CWA by early evening and mean wind vectors ENE, this activity could eventually spread into the southern CWA. With very steep lapse rates contributing to strong instability and ample shear available, this activity could be strong to severe later this evening. This appears to have a better chance to bring hazardous weather into the area compared to the aforementioned SK/MB trof and ND pre-frontal trough. While general multi- cell/quasi-linear mode is expected given preference for fast moving OFBs, elevated mesocyclones are possible. There is event some backing of winds with height aloft to perhaps favor anticyclonic mesocyclones which would tend to deviate storms north into ND out of SD as well as bring chance for large hail despite non-discrete mode. Lastly, strong DCAPE, steep lapse rates throughout the column, and linear mode may bring chance for winds over 75 mph, but confidence of this significant wind hazard into our area is low at the moment. Forcing with the WY/SD wave should move east of our area overnight tonight after 3 AM, and thus this is when thunderstorms should move out of the area. Otherwise, the aforementioned cold front eventually moves through the area Tuesday bringing clouds, milder temps, and breeze out of the northwest. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Friday through Sunday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the end of the week and into the holiday weekend. Several weak shortwaves will be moving through the northwesterly flow, so chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue periodically through Saturday and Sunday. Timing and placement of each shortwave is still a bit uncertain at this point, with no strong signals in the ensemble R and M climate for wetter than usual conditions. Temperatures on Friday will start out on the cooler side of seasonal averages but highs will warm back up into the 80s over the weekend. Monday through Wednesday...Upper heights will begin rising as ridging starts to build into the central CONUS. However, there will still be several weak shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge so thunderstorm chances will continue on and off through the holiday and into the middle of next week. Temps should remain close to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, with main aviation impacts related to possible thunderstorm activity during the late evening/early morning period. Best chances based on current data are in southeast ND and west central MN, with lower chances further north. I reflected this trend with this TAF updates limiting mention to KFAR/KBJI (less confidence further north). How strong these showers/storms will be is also a question, but potential is there for severe winds/hail depending on how far north the stronger activity holds together. Winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front after 09-12Z, increasing through the daytime period Thursday (gusts 25-30kt likely). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...JR AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 815 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire on time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Rest of Today: The Red Flag Warning persists [unchanged] and remains in effect until 8 PM MDT this evening. As of 20Z /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon, observational data indicated that the worst conditions were along/west of KS Highway 25 -- where temperatures ranged from 99-104F, RHs 5-15%, and S winds were sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Thu-Thu night: The Tri-State area will remain situated on the northern periphery of a broad upper level ridge -- at the far southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Though the synoptic pattern remains essentially the same (compared to today).. guidance indicates a far greater potential for convection during the late afternoon/evening.. perhaps assoc/w a subtle change in the orientation/magnitude of the upper level ridge over the 4-Corners and stronger flow aloft (at/above 300 mb) over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies bringing small amplitude waves in closer proximity to the central Rockies. Regardless, simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that convection will develop in the lee of the Rockies during the mid-afternoon.. increasing in coverage and progressing downstream into western KS during the late aft/eve (reaching the CO/KS border by ~00Z). Forecast soundings for the Tri-State area indicate a dry thermodynamic environment characterized by skinny, high-based CAPE profiles and a kinematic environment characterized by weak low-mid tropospheric flow (10-15 knot winds from the surface to ~500 mb). In such conditions.. organized convection is not anticipated. Seasonably/ climatologically strong DCAPE and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will, of course, support brief/isold instances of damaging wind in association with any deep updrafts. Areas situated along/west of Kansas Highway 25.. where convection is more likely to occur invof peak heating.. appear to be at [relative] greatest risk for severe weather. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Friday and Saturday’s upper-level flows are still looking to be a westerly zonal setup due to high pressure to the south and low pressure over Canada. These two days look to be pretty seasonal with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s while lows will be in the upper 50s to 60s. There is a decent chance that the southern portion of the CWA will see showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. The chances of precipitation will be higher Friday evening in areas south of Interstate 70. Sunday will be the start of a warming trend as a ridge will move into the Tri-State area from the Rockies. The warming trend will continue into the early-middle part of next week. Winds will flow from the south-southwest causing warm air to be moved into the area. High temperatures could reach triple digits while low temperatures may not drop out of the 70s for the southeast portion of the CWA. Going into Wednesday, there is less certainty in the forecast, but there is suggestion that a trough could begin pushing out the high pressure and bring slightly cooler temperatures. There is a chance for convective showers and thunderstorms in the evening for Sunday through Wednesday but there is not high confidence at this time due to a lack of moisture and the generally higher pressure over the region. Surface winds on Sunday and Monday are also expected to increase in intensity. These winds will not only help warm temperatures, they could cause extra mishaps with Independence Day festivities, so be careful. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty south winds will continue through about 08z then settle below 12kts while veering to the southwest through sunrise. During the day Thursday, winds continue to veer, establishing a northeasterly direction at speeds approaching 12kts by 23z. North winds gusting to 25kts are expected after 02z. Thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminal in the 23z-01z timeframe with strong wind gusts potentially over 50kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty south winds will continue through about 08z, falling below 12kts through sunrise. During the day Thursday, winds will veer to the northeast by 20z with speeds up to 10kts. After 21z, northeast winds around 10kts are expected. Convection is possible near/over the terminal in the 02z-04z timeframe but at this time confidence is too low to include in the forecast. The primary hazard will be wind gusts potentially gusting over 50kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 756 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A few pulse convective cells have developed off and on over parts of north AL early this evening. The latest of which are over northwest AL. These have been very short-lived, with updrafts collapsing rather quickly. The convection along and just north of the I-22 corridor is a bit more vigorous and will clip Franklin County over the next hour or two. We are also watching a cluster of strong convection west of the ATL metro. The latest HRRR run suggests this may make progress into east central and perhaps parts of north AL later tonight. Thus, low PoPs were maintained in these areas overnight. The loss of daytime heating may lead to their demise, but given their current strength, will not rule it out given an unstable airmass over the area. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the overnight forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 The large scale pattern as we progress into the short term period will really begin the transition into more of a summer-like pattern for the region. The polar westerlies will retreat to the north, with a quasi-zonal pattern emerging for much of the CONUS. The polar jet will likewise be located far to our north, however a narrow sub-tropical jet may exist across the area, situated along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Not that this will play a significant role in our sensible weather, but may assist with lift and evacuating flow aloft tomorrow and into Friday (although the jet is expected to weaken). A short wave currently generating deep convection to our southern in southern MS/AL will gradually move to the north and over our area on Thursday and Friday. This feature, combined with the increasingly humid/unstable air mass in place will give rise to increased shower and thunderstorm activity, which may culminate in coverage on Friday. Instability and shear parameters will favor marginally strong updrafts/downdrafts, but any severe weather looks to be limited with general lack of shear. However, PWs around 1.8-2 inches and slow steering flow, particularly on Friday, will present a threat for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to minor instances of localized flash flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 As we head into the holiday weekend, we are monitoring the steering of the tropical disturbance in the NW Gulf of Mexico, however no impact is expected within our area at this time. On Saturday, high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Global models are in agreement showing a ridging pattern limiting our mid-level cloud cover, increasing diurnal heating throughout the day. This will result in the potential for scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon into evening hours. This pattern continues through Sunday with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s. Monday brings high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s as well, with heat indices approaching 100. Expect another chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as cloud cover increases in the late afternoon. The main threats associated with the aforementioned storms will be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. While we have moderate confidence the storms will be sub-severe, we cannot completely rule out the chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm. As far as fireworks go, we do expect mostly cloudy skies in the late afternoon through Monday, however, these clouds will slowly clear out after sunset each evening. Overnight low temperatures will reside in the upper 60s to mid 70s throughout the weekend. This diurnal thunderstorm pattern continues into Tuesday as we continue to see possible scattered thunderstorms and high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat indices will approach advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the period for most areas. Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected to develop by 18Z/30 with the potential for brief MVFR or IFR conditions and gusty winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A front stalled across the area will dissipate on Thursday bringing slightly lower coverage of storms. Normal heat, humidity, and thunderstorm coverage returns Friday for the next several days. && .UPDATE... The main update with the latest forecast was to remove POPs from all areas based on radar trends and HRRR for the overnight hours. Could see areas of fog develop, especially across portions of the Pee Dee region. Some debris cloudiness from upstream convection could limit the areal extent of any fog development. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Slow moving front in the area, convective boundaries, and an approaching mid level short wave have led to increasing coverage of showers and tstms across the area this afternoon, esp. over SC where more concentrated precip is occurring. Very little shear so svr threat is minimal, though with very slow storm motions and deep moisture in place, an isolated flooding concern is there for the next few hours. Ongoing drought will mitigate things but poor drainage/low lying areas may see some issues if any cells end up in the wrong place. Dampening mid level wave should be near the coast by 00z, so will eventually begin to see some NVA. Some of the guidance showing a few lingering showers through early evening, but expect things to diminish steadily after 00z overall. Other concern tonight is fog potential with light winds and today`s rain. Some question on how much clearing we`ll see but have continued to include some fog wording esp. away from immediate coast. Thursday should see less precip coverage than today as slow moving front becomes diffuse and mid level ridging attempts to build. Enough moisture for widely scattered showers/tstms esp. over our SC zones where dewpoints will be a littler higher and some weak low lvl convergence expected. Have 30-40 pops roughly between Georgetown to Darlington counties and and generally 20-30 elsewhere. Otherwise a little warmer tomorrow in the upper 80s to near 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With one closed isopleth remaining overhead at 500mb Thursday night paired with the deep layer moisture to our south it looks like the area is in for a rain-free night with seasonable temperatures. The one exception to rain-free conditions is the fact that one or two showers may advect ashore in the light onshore flow. We lose the suppressing action of the ridge on Friday and diurnal thunderstorms may become scattered to widespread as PW values remain so high. The unsettled weather may persist overnight Friday as a slow moving shortwave traverses the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very weak flow at all levels on Saturday, as is usually the case as we head into July. Another fairly active afternoon may be in the offering as there is still some semblance of shortwave energy overhead, which is less the norm for the time of year. A (very) slight decrease in convective coverage is slated for Sunday as mid level heights rebound slightly. Uncertainty creeps into the latter part of the long term. Previous thinking was that typical July temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm coverage was expected. Model solutions, most notably the GFS that push a boundary this far south are both a novel idea as well as not climatologically favored. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 22Z, the front continues to linger in our northern CWA, roughly located through KLBT and KSUT with most convection remaining along it. Several outflow boundaries could ignite short-lived isolated storms with the best chances at KLBT through 1Z and to a lesser extent KILM. During this time convection should become more stratiform due to loss of daytime heating before fizzling out. The next point of concern is potential MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs overnight due to possible fog and low stratus. Confidence is highest at KFLO from 9Z-12Z. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR for Thu as a weak front dissipates and weak high pressure takes over just east of the OBX. A little better chances for afternoon/early evening showers and tstms as we move into and through the weekend may lead to brief restrictions. Will also need to watch for early morning low clouds/fog as summertime pattern develops. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Wind directions have been a little all over the place today but have trended mostly E to ESE 5-10kts outside of showers. An enhancement in NE winds just off the coast north of Cape Fear this morning has eased. Weak front in the area will dissipate through tomorrow, allowing high pressure just east of the Outer Banks to take over. Winds will briefly trend NE to E again into early Thursday morning while staying at or below 10kts, before becoming SE again through the afternoon. Some typical enhancements expected near the coast with sea breeze. Seas around 2ft through tonight will pick up slightly to 2 to 3ft through tomorrow, as a modest increase in SE 7-9s trade swell is realized and mixes with small local wind generated waves in the 4-5s band. Thursday night through Monday... Weak high pressure centered off NC/VA early in the period bringing a light SE flow locally as well as a minor swell component that though weak should overshadow the diminutive wind chop. By Saturday the wave components become closer to equal in height as we increase wind speed into the 10-15kt range. South to SW winds will remain in place for the rest of the period keeping the two wave groups fairly similar. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SRP NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...ILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening) Issued at 331 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022 GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge of sfc high pressure exiting off to the east this afternoon as a sfc low and associated LLJ approach from the west. WAA/theta-e adv along this boundary is bringing some upper-level stratus across the Upper Great Lakes region along with some -shra across northern MN. Otherwise, relatively benign conditions remain across the UP with temps slightly blo normal after this mornings fog. High pressure is bringing light winds across the area with sfc obs indicating a lake breeze along the ern Keweenaw eastward to Whitefish Pt. Another lake breeze is evident off of Lake Michigan as well. Through the evening hours, winds will begin to increase and back more to the south ahead of an approaching LLJ. Pcpn along the nose of the LLJ should remain out to our west, perhaps across far western Lk Superior, through the evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 413 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022 A warm front moving through the area starts the extended forecast. As a low progging east just north of the Canadian/US border phases with a second low lifting from the Northern Plains tonight, expect the warm front of the phasing lows to continue across the area tonight. Given that model guidance has suggested that the frontogenesis is going to be near and over Lake Superior tonight, expect the best rain shower and thunderstorm chances to be over the lake and the northern UP. Thinking that the severe wx threat is going to remain limited; while hodographs and helicities are very supportive for severe wx, given the strong inversion near the 850 to 900 mb lvl and the bad wx occurring during the overnight hours, thinking that anything we could see would be some marginally severe hail (the inversion should prevent severe winds from reaching the sfc and stop tornado development). Lows tonight should be fairly warm, as strong WAA around the 850 mb lvl (ensembles show temps getting above the 95th percentile at the lvl) and cloud cover should keep temps in the low to mid 60s. Windy conditions are also expected tonight into Thursday as a low lvl jet passes aloft; winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected across the area, with wind speeds up to 45 mph possible along the Gogebic Range and a few isolated gusts up to 50 mph possible along the Huron Mtns. What keeps the area from suffering worse winds speeds is the strong inversion near the 850 mb lvl, as the low lvl jet is expected to gust over 70 mph. Expect the first cold front of the phasing lows to move over the area by Thursday AM, allowing additional showers and thunderstorms to impact Upper MI. There is a low chance for some severe wx Thursday into Thursday evening, as there is some modest turning of the winds with height and CAPEs are projected to be near 1000 to 2000 J/kg tomorrow due to the warm air remaining aloft ahead of the cold fronts; in addition, there are some pockets of dry air aloft that could bring severe winds down to the sfc. A few things may limit severe wx though, namely the mostly cloudy skies over the CWA Thursday ahead and along the cold front and a cap remaining near the 850 mb lvl. While the cap is likely to be overcome via forcing from the cold front, due to the cloud cover, strong lapse rates may become limited (although some models do hint at strong lapse rates in the boundary layer still). Therefore, while all the severe wx threats are still technically on the table, confidence is shaky that it will materialize; I think a lot of it will depend on whether cloudier conditions prevail, or if there can be a few breaks in the cloud cover. Behind the first cold front Thursday, a secondary cold front looks to move in immediately afterwards early Thursday evening. Given that CAM models show a line of thunderstorms developing along that second front, and profiles still look moist and warm enough allow for some modest convective growth, thinking the severe wx threat should be about the same for this front too Thursday evening. By around midnight, the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Upper MI. Highs Thursday are projected to get into the low to mid 80s in interior west and central, and the 70s near the Great Lakes and east. Lows Thursday night are expected to drop into the mainly the 50s, with the coolest temps expected west as the skies clear over there first. Behind the secondary cold front, expect drier and slightly cooler than normal wx this weekend as ridging over the Great Plains moves over us. As we get into early next week, we could see a shortwave or two move through the area, bringing showers and thunderstorms back over Upper MI. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 723 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022 A trough will move into the area tonight bringing strong low level winds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A 60 to 70kt low level jet will result in LLWS at all terminals after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into tomorrow though the best coverage appears to be over Lake Superior tonight with the TAF sites on the southern edge the system. Addition showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday morning into the afternoon though confidence on exact timing and placement is low, kept precip mentions mainly vicinity. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals however if showers occur over the central U.P. this could introduce enough moisture into the low levels to bring MVFR CIGs to KSAW for a time in the morning hours. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 357 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022 Winds of 20 knots or less become southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots across the eastern lake tonight as a warm front traverses Lake Superior. A few gale force gusts up to 35 knots are possible along the immediate lakeshore near Ironwood to Ontonagon, and again from L`Anse past Marquette to Munising. As winds veer to the southwest Thursday along the first of two cold fronts, expect winds to continue at speeds of 20 to 25 knots. After the second cold front`s passage Thursday evening, expect winds to die down to 20 knots or less, generally remaining that way until the end of the forecast period. Some patchy fog is possible tonight into Thursday, before ending in the east Thursday evening as drier and colder air sets in. Thunderstorms are possible across Lake Superior tonight into Thursday evening. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...NL MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
418 PM MST Wed Jun 29 2022 .UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .SYNOPSIS... During the latter half of the week, thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift towards higher terrain locations north and east of Phoenix. Then, a drying trend will become increasingly likely across the entire area during at least the first half of next week with little to no thunderstorm activity. Slightly above normal temperatures should retreat closer to the seasonal average through the holiday weekend before warming again into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Early afternoon WV satellite imagery shows the anti-cyclone center has shifted along the CO-NM border with deep southeast flow becoming established across the forecast area. While the primary inverted low pressure system has stalled over NE Mexico, a smaller, more subtle shortwave was embedded in the SE flow over northern Sonora creating convectively favorable upper level divergence over the southern half of Arizona. Objective analysis and in situ ACARS soundings indicate MLCape has increased to near 1000 J/kg, albeit with notable inhibition still relevant around the top of the boundary layer. However, robust thunderstorm development began in parts of the state as early as 17Z in the face of this rather large CinH suggesting enhanced forced ascent capable of breaching this inhibition. With DCape increasing near 1500 J/kg, any thunderstorms in this environment will be capable of producing strong downburst wind gusts and organized outflow which will rapidly help invigorate additional storm development (especially given the surrounding good synoptic scale lift). The culmination of multiple large outflow boundaries will support areas of blowing dust across the dust prone areas of Pinal, Maricopa, La Paz, and Yuma counties. Accumulating rainfall will be more difficult to come by with NBM probabilities of accumulations exceeding 0.10" just under 35%. Therefore, the flood threat appears low at this time, although cannot be totally ruled out, especially if there are training or consolidation of storms behind an outflow boundary. Even though HREF ensemble has not been particularly aggressive with storm coverage this afternoon, the aforementioned parameters may argue for better convergence and clustering of numerous storms through western Maricopa County this evening. A period of greater foreast uncertainty exists Thursday morning as a handful of CAMs (including several HRRR iterations) have produced expansive midlevel accas showers/embedded storms over (or around) the Phoenix metro. These type of scenarios are forecast by CAMs frequently in the monsoon, however only come to fruition a fraction of the time though remains a 20% chance of occurring based on analysis of forecast details. Aside from this possibility, activity Thursday afternoon should begin the retreat to high elevations with a more hostile environment for deep convection developing in the lower deserts. Long traveling outflow winds will still be possible into lower elevation communities with NBM POPs dropping below 15%. The hemispheric synoptic pattern towards the end of the week will feature a deepening trough situated off the west coast. This will result in increased southwesterly flow impinging into the SW Conus and resulting in a gradual shift of better quality moisture eastward. As a result, the better chances of storms Friday will be confined mainly to the higher elevations zones located north and east of Phoenix, where NBM PoPs fall in a 30-40% range while lower elevations fail to even register 10%. The aforementioned west coast trough deepens even further during the weekend through early next week, and the moisture plume will likely be pushed further east into extreme eastern Arizona and New Mexico. The vast majority of the CWA, including higher terrain areas, should expect little to no storm activity with NBM POPs barely registering 20% anywhere within the forecast area starting Sunday. Temperatures through the end of the week and holiday weekend will slightly cool into a seasonally normal range as 500 mb heights dip slightly due to the influence from the developing west coast trough. This trough will eventually lift away from the region during the middle of next week, and the preponderance of model evidence points towards subtropical ridge retrogression and intensification over the area during the latter half of next week potentially resulting in a period of excessive heat before the wetter portion of the monsoon pattern reloads. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: A strong outflow boundary is currently moving out of the metro area with all sites now observing southerly wind. Dense blowing dust is occurring with this boundary, but visibilities should begin to recover over the next hour. Scattered thunderstorms resulting in erratic wind shifts will continue to be possible for the next few hours. Cloud bases should remain near or above 10 kft. Overnight, winds will favor the southeast but may be variable at times. An additional uptick in shower activity is possible after 10Z on Thursday morning but any showers should diminish by late morning. Winds will shift to southwest by Thursday early afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at KIPL will favor the west this evening with some gustiness this evening and again Thursday evening. Winds may shift to southeast on Thursday morning for a few hours. At KBLH winds will mostly favor the southwest with some gustiness developing Thursday afternoon. A few clouds are expected, but mostly above 10kft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Thunderstorm activity for the remainder of the week will be mostly confined to higher terrain locations north and east of Phoenix. Mainly dry conditions, even across the higher terrain, is becoming increasingly likely during at least first part of next week as drier air overtakes the area. Afternoon humidity values will range between 15-30% through the rest of the week, then decrease closer to the 10- 25% range early next week. Overnight recovery will generally be 25- 50% over lower elevations and 50-80% over the higher terrain of eastern districts. Increased southwest winds will begin to become more common over western districts this weekend, but remain well below critical thresholds. Otherwise aside from thunderstorm outflows, winds in eastern districts should not pose problems. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...18/Lojero AVIATION...Hodges FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 A little enhanced cu developed earlier this afternoon, and now a few isolated showers and storms have developed as well. Latest HRRR shows this fairly well, and it really should survive until around 00Z at the latest. Otherwise, dry through Thursday. Warming trend continued, with afternoon highs on Thursday rebounding towards the 100 degree mark in several locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Hot conditions and mainly dry conditions continue. Isolated showers an thunderstorms remain possible Saturday afternoon, as a weak tropical disturbance in the western Gulf moves north across the eastern half of Texas. Areas along/east of I-35 have the best potential for rain, but a few storms are possible in the San Angelo County Warning Area. Unfortunately rainfall amounts will not be significant for West Central Texas, and as the upper ridging strengthens Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures warm to highs of 100 to 103. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 VFR conditions are expected at our TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring this evening to the west of a Robert Lee to San Angelo to Sonora line. This isolated convection will dissipate by late evening, and mostly clear skies are expected overnight and Thursday. East- southeast winds this evening will become light south overnight. On Thursday, weak south-southwest winds in the morning will become southeast at 6-10 knots in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 71 96 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Brownwood 69 97 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 71 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 71 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 70 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...19