Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/30/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
A cool front has pushed across much of western and central ND
this evening. This front has interacted with severe storms in SD
to destabilize the atmosphere enough to make strong to severe
thunderstorms in southwestern and south central North Dakota.
These storms are moving slowly northeast and are entering into an
environment very favorable for strong winds with DCAPE over 1000
and 0 to 3 km shear up to 30 knots. Shear vectors are mostly
parallel to the boundary, so multi clusters are still expected.
However, with high amounts of shear and MUCAPE, large hail up to 2
inches are still possible. All things considered have expanded
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch a tier of counties westward to
include the ongoing storms and their propagation.
UPDATE Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect across far south central
and southeastern North Dakota. Surface low remains across SD
right now, with a frontal boundary starting to show up in ND and
on the radar. Much of the convection has been confined to the
warmer sector of this boundary in South Dakota early this evening.
As the night progresses through cooling aloft will erode the cap,
and this disturbance and front feature in SD will shift ever so
slightly north. The result, strong to severe storms across mainly
southern ND, mostly along and south of Interstate 94. DCAPE is
well over 1000 J/KG in these areas, with 0 to 3 KM shear 20 to 40
knots. So the main threat is likely wind, if enough can mix down
from the overall elevated storms. There is enough shear and cape
for large hail, although the size may be somewhat limited given
the overall lack of expected rotation in the storms. Thus the main
hazards for the watch areas will be hail up to golf balls in
size, and winds up to 70 mph and perhaps an isolated 75 to 80 mph.
Lack of surface base and supercell storms should limit the
tornado threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are still
possible, although the threat for severe weather is diminishing,
especially in the north. On the backside of the mentioned front
are cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints limiting instability.
Shear is still strong, and if enough lift can initiate and sustain
thunderstorms then perhaps a strong to severe storm is possible.
The overall threat for severe weather is from now until around or
shortly after midnight. Those in the watch area should keep an eye
on the weather and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
The severe weather threat late today and into tonight remains the
main forecast challenge through the short term.
Nothing has really changed since the last update regarding the
afternoon severe potential across the north central: An impulse
over northeastern Montana looks to be the trigger for any
potential development across the north central in the 21z to 00z
time frame. Guidance differs on the exact path of this vort max
with the GFS bringing more energy south of the International
Border and the NAM giving us more of a glancing blow. The big
question will be whether the outskirts of this wave will be enough
to break through some of the capping noted on forecast soundings. If
storms do develop here and can become established, they should
become rapidly severe with very large hail up to two inches and
damaging winds to 70 mph as the primary threats.
However, it should be noted that there is a scenario where
capping cannot be overcome by the relatively weak forcing and
storms do not even develop at all. It should also be noted that
the past couple runs of the HRRR have backed off on storm
development in the north central this afternoon. We are in the
process of sending up a special 20z sounding to give us a better
look at the inhibition present. An initial glance thus far shows
significant capping remains in place with ~25 C temps at around
860mb. So at the moment, afternoon development still looks to be
a couple hours away, if at all.
Attention then turns to the more energetic wave that will come out
of South Dakota tonight and clip our south. Storms should be
ongoing across northern South Dakota and will likely approach the
south central North Dakota border around 00z, focused along a
surface warm front under moderate instability. Shear will be a
bit weaker here than the north and the vectors should generally
be parallel to the boundary. Thus, we expect storm mode to be more
linear with multicell and perhaps a few embedded supercell
structures. The main hazards with these storms will be hail to the
size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph. Another round of
storms may accompany the cold front passage towards 06z or so, but
these storms may not be as strong given waning instability.
Some showers and storms may linger southeast Thursday morning as
the wave departs, but most of the day will be characterized by
cooler temperatures and a mostly sunny sky as weak high pressure
moves in across the west. Highs will be in the 70s. Cyclonic flow
across the northeast could spark an isolated shower or two across
the Turtle Mountains and vicinity in the afternoon but most will
see dry weather.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Ridging to our west nudges closer on Friday, bumping highs back up
into the mid 70s to lower 80s. We will generally stay in northwest
flow aloft through the weekend with various weak waves moving
through. Better chances for precipitation then come into the
forecast late Sunday through midweek as a western trough
deamplifies and pushes into the Northern Plains. There are some
signals in the extended guidance for severe thunderstorm potential
in the Sunday through Wednesday time frame but plenty of
uncertainty remains regarding specific days/timing/details.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period,
with some MVFR conditions under thunderstorms and lingering clouds
at times. Rest of tonight, the threat for thunderstorms still
remains, although has shifted to mainly along and south Interstate
94. Here strong to severe storms are still possible with damaging
wind and large hail the main threat. Confidence was only high
enough to include VCTS at this point for most affected sites,
although a TEMPO group has been added this evening in the KJMS
TAF. Sites not in this area are not expected to see severe weather
at this time, and chances for thunderstorms are fairly isolated.
Thunderstorms move out of the area overnight tonight. Winds will
shift to the northwest and become breezy through the day Thursday.
Some lingering low VFR to perhaps MVFR clouds are then possible
through the day on Thursday, along with a few isolated showers.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
At the lunch hour, GOES East visible imagery shows numerous CU
across the Coastal Plains and out west over the Southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. These two regions will be the focus
for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. SPC RAP mesoanalysis indicates that instability over the
Hill Country and just west of the I-35 corridor is virtually non-
existent as dewpoints are noticeably lower in this region. No deep
layer shear is present either, so any storms that form will be pulse-
like in nature and short-lived, mostly dependent on the seabreeze
and outflow boundary interactions. Any storms that manage to develop
should dissipate by 00Z with passing clouds and fair weather
expected overnight.
Thursday will be the more intriguing day of this short term
forecast, as a weak tropical disturbance moves inland, bringing the
threat for showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region. At this
time, forecast PWATs from the HREF approaching 1.6-2.0", along with
some decent instability and surface moisture to work with. Global
models have trended further west and weaker with this system, with a
marked drop in rain chances along the I-35 corridor, mainly
confining those higher probabilities to the Coastal Plains, Brazos
Valley, and Upper Texas Coast. We will remain somewhat optimistic
and keep some PoPs in play up to and along the I-35 corridor, but
the odds of a good soaking rain appear to have decreased somewhat
over the last 24 hours.
With regard to temperatures, yet another "cool" morning is expected
Thursday morning, but not quite as cool as this morning, generally
with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Afternoon highs will be back
to the usual we would expect in late June/early July, in the mid to
upper 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Model guidance is now in rather good agreement that a trough or weak
low will have moved onshore over or just to the east of the US-77
corridor. How long it`s influence sticks around is still in
question, but shower and storm chances are currently in the forecast
along and east of I-35 through the day on Saturday. Coverage of rain
across our Coastal Plains counties is currently expected to be
highest on Friday. Official forecast amounts are under 0.5" across
our far SE counties, and we anticipate a likelihood that any locally
heavy rain would remain outside our area of responsibility. However
the WPC ERO for Friday into Friday night does include a Marginal
Risk of excessive rain across Lavaca and eastern DeWitt Counties,
where a localized worst case of 2-3" of rain is possible Friday.
This would only be enough to cause issues if it came on top of heavy
rain on Thursday and Thursday night.
Seasonally cool highs are expected over our eastern counties as a
result of added cloud cover, with highs of 89-93, however near the
Rio Grande highs may exceed 100 once again. As the low slowly pulls
away over the weekend, ridging will begin to amplify across the
central CONUS. While there are some low-end chances for isolated
showers and storms mainly west Saturday evening, signs point towards
a gradual return to warmer, drier than normal conditions returning
with daily high temperatures slowly warming each day back into the
upper 90s to mid 100s by next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
A thunderstorm is moving across DRT causing strong, gusty winds. It
should move out of the area within the hour. Once it`s gone all
terminals will be VFR for the rest of this period. Winds will be less
than 10 kts tonight. Winds Thursday will be from the east through
southeast at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 74 94 74 91 / 10 10 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 94 73 91 / 10 10 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 95 73 92 / 10 20 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 73 92 / 0 10 0 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 99 77 100 / 10 10 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 91 / 0 10 0 30
Hondo Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 94 73 92 / 10 20 10 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 93 75 90 / 20 30 10 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 20
Stinson Muni Airport 74 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Cold front appears to be just west of our CWA, with surface
troughing still in place over our CWA and a Theta-E gradient
along a stalled warm front in our south. The window is still
there for severe potential mainly in our south along the stalled
frontal zone. According to SPC objective analysis MU CAPE exceeds
3500 J/KG and DCAPE is still hovering around 2000 J/KG near ND/SD
border where very steep mid level lapse rates are in place. The
atmosphere remains strongly capped and this activity is likely to
remain elevated as is moves into our CWA. As upstream clusters
move east there is still enough shear for brief surges or linear
features that could create greater wind impact potential. At this
point damaging winds are the most likely threat, hail threat is
probably on the marginal side, and tornado threat is minimized due
to the elevated nature of convection (still can`t be ruled out as
0-3km shear remains 30-35kt). Window still appears to be over the
next several hours and after that any elevated clusters are
likely to become less organized.
UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Strong cap in place locally and limited synoptic ascent has so
far limited initiation and latest HRRR runs have reflected the
delay in initiation and significant lowered confidence in severe
potential further north. Instability/shear will still be in
place, so I don`t want to completely rule out activity further
north but right now better potential is trending towards our
south.
Regarding our southern CWA: Upstream trends in SD show several
organizing clusters within region of weakening CINh and a bit
better synoptic ascent associated with an impulse within west-
southwest flow moving out of WY. Ahead of this activity ML CAPE
axis of 1500-2500 J/KG remains in place and is shown by RAP to
linger in our southern CWA through the late evening before
transitioning to a much more elevated layer and weakening. Mean
winds and corfidi vectors both initially favor a west to east
track, however after 03Z take on a northeast component as the
cold front starts to arrive in the northwest and prefrontal
troughing shifts. Last few HRRR runs support this upstream
activity in SD eventually spreading into SE ND after 9Z (10PM)
and into west central MN closer to 5-6Z (midnight). During the
same period instability may be decreasing/becoming more elevated.
Still, 0-3km and effective shear are adequate for sustained
severe potential, though with lowered confidence in supercells and
more elevated MCS tendencies trends may transition more towards
wind/hail. How far north and how long that activity maintains it
strength is a tough call at this point. Current Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for our area in the south through 1AM is
covering this threat for the later evening period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Focus will be given to potentially impactful severe storms this
evening. Hazards from strongest storms include chance for very
large hail at least 2 inches, winds to 75 mph, and still cannot
rule out a brief, isolated tornado.
Moderate to strong instability is developing in the Dakotas given
increasing low level moisture content and warming temps amidst
clear skies. GOES WV and JPSS ALPW still show a stout EML
advecting out of WY/MT into the Dakotas over the warming,
moistening PBL contributing to strong instability. However this
stout EML brings a capping inversion in which sufficient forcing
will have to overcome. There is a mid level wave noted on GOES WV
moving ENE across far northern MT into southern SK/MB, with
attendant dryline followed by cold front still in MT. This wave is
also contributing to ample shear across much ND. There is also a
pre-frontal trough across western/central ND noted by northerly
winds next to southerly within a similar thermodynamic air mass.
While this prefrontal trough and perhaps eventual dryline could
provide the foci need for initiation, better synoptic forcing
aloft looks to miss the area staying in Canada, as well as the
absence of better sfc convergence along a sfc boundary looks to
favor the capping inversion to suppress sustained convection for
discrete supercells as was once depicted by 12 Z guidance.
However, we are still not discounting this conditional threat of
discrete supercells into eastern ND just yet, but rather the
probability appears to have decreased. Should robust convection
initiate, isolated, discrete supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible, some of which may be longer tracked if they can
sustain themselves internally. Strongest storms will be capable of
very large hail.
In addition to the SK/MB shortwave trough, a second mid level
impulse is moving ENE out of WY into SD/NE as noted on satellite
imagery. This impulse is already developing clusters of elevated
storms moving into SD, with a large unstable warm sector
downstream across most of SD. There is some indication that these
clusters will continue east, perhaps congealing into an MCS across
SD this afternoon. With the warm sector extending into our
southern CWA by early evening and mean wind vectors ENE, this
activity could eventually spread into the southern CWA. With very
steep lapse rates contributing to strong instability and ample
shear available, this activity could be strong to severe later
this evening. This appears to have a better chance to bring
hazardous weather into the area compared to the aforementioned
SK/MB trof and ND pre-frontal trough. While general multi-
cell/quasi-linear mode is expected given preference for fast
moving OFBs, elevated mesocyclones are possible. There is event
some backing of winds with height aloft to perhaps favor
anticyclonic mesocyclones which would tend to deviate storms north
into ND out of SD as well as bring chance for large hail despite
non-discrete mode. Lastly, strong DCAPE, steep lapse rates
throughout the column, and linear mode may bring chance for winds
over 75 mph, but confidence of this significant wind hazard into
our area is low at the moment.
Forcing with the WY/SD wave should move east of our area overnight
tonight after 3 AM, and thus this is when thunderstorms should
move out of the area. Otherwise, the aforementioned cold front
eventually moves through the area Tuesday bringing clouds, milder
temps, and breeze out of the northwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Friday through Sunday...Northwesterly flow aloft for the end of the
week and into the holiday weekend. Several weak shortwaves will be
moving through the northwesterly flow, so chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue periodically through Saturday and
Sunday. Timing and placement of each shortwave is still a bit
uncertain at this point, with no strong signals in the ensemble R
and M climate for wetter than usual conditions. Temperatures on
Friday will start out on the cooler side of seasonal averages but
highs will warm back up into the 80s over the weekend.
Monday through Wednesday...Upper heights will begin rising as
ridging starts to build into the central CONUS. However, there will
still be several weak shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge so
thunderstorm chances will continue on and off through the holiday
and into the middle of next week. Temps should remain close to
seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN,
with main aviation impacts related to possible thunderstorm
activity during the late evening/early morning period. Best
chances based on current data are in southeast ND and west central
MN, with lower chances further north. I reflected this trend with
this TAF updates limiting mention to KFAR/KBJI (less confidence
further north). How strong these showers/storms will be is also a
question, but potential is there for severe winds/hail depending
on how far north the stronger activity holds together. Winds shift
to the northwest behind a cold front after 09-12Z, increasing
through the daytime period Thursday (gusts 25-30kt likely).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022
The Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire on time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Rest of Today: The Red Flag Warning persists [unchanged] and
remains in effect until 8 PM MDT this evening. As of 20Z /2 PM
MDT/ this afternoon, observational data indicated that the worst
conditions were along/west of KS Highway 25 -- where temperatures
ranged from 99-104F, RHs 5-15%, and S winds were sustained at
20-30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Thu-Thu night: The Tri-State area will remain situated on the
northern periphery of a broad upper level ridge -- at the far
southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Though the
synoptic pattern remains essentially the same (compared to
today).. guidance indicates a far greater potential for
convection during the late afternoon/evening.. perhaps assoc/w a
subtle change in the orientation/magnitude of the upper level
ridge over the 4-Corners and stronger flow aloft (at/above 300 mb)
over the Intermountain West/northern Rockies bringing small
amplitude waves in closer proximity to the central Rockies.
Regardless, simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM
NEST suggest that convection will develop in the lee of the
Rockies during the mid-afternoon.. increasing in coverage and
progressing downstream into western KS during the late aft/eve
(reaching the CO/KS border by ~00Z). Forecast soundings for the
Tri-State area indicate a dry thermodynamic environment
characterized by skinny, high-based CAPE profiles and a kinematic
environment characterized by weak low-mid tropospheric flow (10-15
knot winds from the surface to ~500 mb). In such conditions..
organized convection is not anticipated. Seasonably/
climatologically strong DCAPE and inverted-V thermodynamic
profiles will, of course, support brief/isold instances of
damaging wind in association with any deep updrafts. Areas
situated along/west of Kansas Highway 25.. where convection is
more likely to occur invof peak heating.. appear to be at
[relative] greatest risk for severe weather.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Friday and Saturday’s upper-level flows are still looking to be
a westerly zonal setup due to high pressure to the south and low
pressure over Canada. These two days look to be pretty seasonal
with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s while lows will be in
the upper 50s to 60s. There is a decent chance that the southern
portion of the CWA will see showers and thunderstorms on Friday
and Saturday. The chances of precipitation will be higher Friday
evening in areas south of Interstate 70.
Sunday will be the start of a warming trend as a ridge will move
into the Tri-State area from the Rockies. The warming trend will
continue into the early-middle part of next week. Winds will flow
from the south-southwest causing warm air to be moved into the
area. High temperatures could reach triple digits while low
temperatures may not drop out of the 70s for the southeast portion
of the CWA. Going into Wednesday, there is less certainty in the
forecast, but there is suggestion that a trough could begin
pushing out the high pressure and bring slightly cooler
temperatures. There is a chance for convective showers and
thunderstorms in the evening for Sunday through Wednesday but
there is not high confidence at this time due to a lack of
moisture and the generally higher pressure over the region.
Surface winds on Sunday and Monday are also expected to increase
in intensity. These winds will not only help warm temperatures,
they could cause extra mishaps with Independence Day festivities,
so be careful.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed Jun 29 2022
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty south
winds will continue through about 08z then settle below 12kts
while veering to the southwest through sunrise. During the day
Thursday, winds continue to veer, establishing a northeasterly
direction at speeds approaching 12kts by 23z. North winds gusting
to 25kts are expected after 02z. Thunderstorms are expected to
impact the terminal in the 23z-01z timeframe with strong wind
gusts potentially over 50kts.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty south
winds will continue through about 08z, falling below 12kts through
sunrise. During the day Thursday, winds will veer to the northeast
by 20z with speeds up to 10kts. After 21z, northeast winds around
10kts are expected. Convection is possible near/over the terminal
in the 02z-04z timeframe but at this time confidence is too low to
include in the forecast. The primary hazard will be wind gusts
potentially gusting over 50kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 756 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
A few pulse convective cells have developed off and on over parts
of north AL early this evening. The latest of which are over
northwest AL. These have been very short-lived, with updrafts
collapsing rather quickly. The convection along and just north of
the I-22 corridor is a bit more vigorous and will clip Franklin
County over the next hour or two. We are also watching a cluster
of strong convection west of the ATL metro. The latest HRRR run
suggests this may make progress into east central and perhaps
parts of north AL later tonight. Thus, low PoPs were maintained
in these areas overnight. The loss of daytime heating may lead to
their demise, but given their current strength, will not rule it
out given an unstable airmass over the area. Otherwise, only minor
adjustments were made to the overnight forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
The large scale pattern as we progress into the short term period
will really begin the transition into more of a summer-like
pattern for the region. The polar westerlies will retreat to the
north, with a quasi-zonal pattern emerging for much of the CONUS.
The polar jet will likewise be located far to our north, however a
narrow sub-tropical jet may exist across the area, situated along
the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Not that this
will play a significant role in our sensible weather, but may
assist with lift and evacuating flow aloft tomorrow and into
Friday (although the jet is expected to weaken). A short wave
currently generating deep convection to our southern in southern
MS/AL will gradually move to the north and over our area on
Thursday and Friday. This feature, combined with the increasingly
humid/unstable air mass in place will give rise to increased
shower and thunderstorm activity, which may culminate in coverage
on Friday. Instability and shear parameters will favor marginally
strong updrafts/downdrafts, but any severe weather looks to be
limited with general lack of shear. However, PWs around 1.8-2
inches and slow steering flow, particularly on Friday, will
present a threat for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to
minor instances of localized flash flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
As we head into the holiday weekend, we are monitoring the steering
of the tropical disturbance in the NW Gulf of Mexico, however no
impact is expected within our area at this time.
On Saturday, high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower
90s. Global models are in agreement showing a ridging pattern
limiting our mid-level cloud cover, increasing diurnal heating
throughout the day. This will result in the potential for scattered
thunderstorms in the late afternoon into evening hours. This pattern
continues through Sunday with high temperatures peaking in the low
to mid 90s. Monday brings high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid
90s as well, with heat indices approaching 100. Expect another
chance of scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as cloud
cover increases in the late afternoon. The main threats associated
with the aforementioned storms will be locally heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. While we have moderate
confidence the storms will be sub-severe, we cannot completely
rule out the chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm.
As far as fireworks go, we do expect mostly cloudy skies in the late
afternoon through Monday, however, these clouds will slowly clear
out after sunset each evening. Overnight low temperatures will
reside in the upper 60s to mid 70s throughout the weekend.
This diurnal thunderstorm pattern continues into Tuesday as we
continue to see possible scattered thunderstorms and high
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat indices will
approach advisory criteria.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the period for most areas.
Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected to develop by 18Z/30 with
the potential for brief MVFR or IFR conditions and gusty winds.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled across the area will dissipate on Thursday
bringing slightly lower coverage of storms. Normal heat,
humidity, and thunderstorm coverage returns Friday for the next
several days.
&&
.UPDATE...
The main update with the latest forecast was to remove POPs from
all areas based on radar trends and HRRR for the overnight
hours. Could see areas of fog develop, especially across
portions of the Pee Dee region. Some debris cloudiness from
upstream convection could limit the areal extent of any fog
development.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slow moving front in the area, convective boundaries, and an
approaching mid level short wave have led to increasing coverage of
showers and tstms across the area this afternoon, esp. over SC where
more concentrated precip is occurring. Very little shear so svr
threat is minimal, though with very slow storm motions and deep
moisture in place, an isolated flooding concern is there for the
next few hours. Ongoing drought will mitigate things but poor
drainage/low lying areas may see some issues if any cells end up in
the wrong place. Dampening mid level wave should be near the coast
by 00z, so will eventually begin to see some NVA. Some of the
guidance showing a few lingering showers through early evening, but
expect things to diminish steadily after 00z overall. Other concern
tonight is fog potential with light winds and today`s rain. Some
question on how much clearing we`ll see but have continued to
include some fog wording esp. away from immediate coast.
Thursday should see less precip coverage than today as slow moving
front becomes diffuse and mid level ridging attempts to build.
Enough moisture for widely scattered showers/tstms esp. over our SC
zones where dewpoints will be a littler higher and some weak low lvl
convergence expected. Have 30-40 pops roughly between Georgetown to
Darlington counties and and generally 20-30 elsewhere. Otherwise a
little warmer tomorrow in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With one closed isopleth remaining overhead at 500mb Thursday night
paired with the deep layer moisture to our south it looks like the
area is in for a rain-free night with seasonable temperatures. The
one exception to rain-free conditions is the fact that one or two
showers may advect ashore in the light onshore flow. We lose the
suppressing action of the ridge on Friday and diurnal thunderstorms
may become scattered to widespread as PW values remain so high. The
unsettled weather may persist overnight Friday as a slow moving
shortwave traverses the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very weak flow at all levels on Saturday, as is usually the case as
we head into July. Another fairly active afternoon may be in the
offering as there is still some semblance of shortwave energy
overhead, which is less the norm for the time of year. A (very)
slight decrease in convective coverage is slated for Sunday as mid
level heights rebound slightly. Uncertainty creeps into the latter
part of the long term. Previous thinking was that typical July
temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm coverage was expected. Model
solutions, most notably the GFS that push a boundary this far south
are both a novel idea as well as not climatologically favored.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 22Z, the front continues to linger in our northern CWA,
roughly located through KLBT and KSUT with most convection
remaining along it. Several outflow boundaries could ignite
short-lived isolated storms with the best chances at KLBT
through 1Z and to a lesser extent KILM. During this time
convection should become more stratiform due to loss of daytime
heating before fizzling out. The next point of concern is
potential MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs overnight due to possible fog
and low stratus. Confidence is highest at KFLO from 9Z-12Z.
Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR for Thu as a weak front
dissipates and weak high pressure takes over just east of the
OBX. A little better chances for afternoon/early evening showers
and tstms as we move into and through the weekend may lead to
brief restrictions. Will also need to watch for early morning
low clouds/fog as summertime pattern develops.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Wind directions have been a little all over the
place today but have trended mostly E to ESE 5-10kts outside of
showers. An enhancement in NE winds just off the coast north of Cape
Fear this morning has eased. Weak front in the area will dissipate
through tomorrow, allowing high pressure just east of the Outer
Banks to take over. Winds will briefly trend NE to E again into
early Thursday morning while staying at or below 10kts, before
becoming SE again through the afternoon. Some typical enhancements
expected near the coast with sea breeze. Seas around 2ft through
tonight will pick up slightly to 2 to 3ft through tomorrow, as a
modest increase in SE 7-9s trade swell is realized and mixes with
small local wind generated waves in the 4-5s band.
Thursday night through Monday... Weak high pressure centered off
NC/VA early in the period bringing a light SE flow locally as well
as a minor swell component that though weak should overshadow the
diminutive wind chop. By Saturday the wave components become closer
to equal in height as we increase wind speed into the 10-15kt range.
South to SW winds will remain in place for the rest of the period
keeping the two wave groups fairly similar.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SRP
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 331 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022
GOES WV imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge of sfc high pressure
exiting off to the east this afternoon as a sfc low and associated
LLJ approach from the west. WAA/theta-e adv along this boundary is
bringing some upper-level stratus across the Upper Great Lakes
region along with some -shra across northern MN. Otherwise,
relatively benign conditions remain across the UP with temps
slightly blo normal after this mornings fog. High pressure is
bringing light winds across the area with sfc obs indicating a lake
breeze along the ern Keweenaw eastward to Whitefish Pt. Another lake
breeze is evident off of Lake Michigan as well. Through the evening
hours, winds will begin to increase and back more to the south ahead
of an approaching LLJ. Pcpn along the nose of the LLJ should remain
out to our west, perhaps across far western Lk Superior, through the
evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022
A warm front moving through the area starts the extended forecast.
As a low progging east just north of the Canadian/US border phases
with a second low lifting from the Northern Plains tonight, expect
the warm front of the phasing lows to continue across the area
tonight. Given that model guidance has suggested that the
frontogenesis is going to be near and over Lake Superior tonight,
expect the best rain shower and thunderstorm chances to be over the
lake and the northern UP. Thinking that the severe wx threat is
going to remain limited; while hodographs and helicities are very
supportive for severe wx, given the strong inversion near the 850 to
900 mb lvl and the bad wx occurring during the overnight hours,
thinking that anything we could see would be some marginally severe
hail (the inversion should prevent severe winds from reaching the
sfc and stop tornado development). Lows tonight should be fairly
warm, as strong WAA around the 850 mb lvl (ensembles show temps
getting above the 95th percentile at the lvl) and cloud cover should
keep temps in the low to mid 60s. Windy conditions are also expected
tonight into Thursday as a low lvl jet passes aloft; winds of 30 to
40 mph are expected across the area, with wind speeds up to 45 mph
possible along the Gogebic Range and a few isolated gusts up to 50
mph possible along the Huron Mtns. What keeps the area from
suffering worse winds speeds is the strong inversion near the 850 mb
lvl, as the low lvl jet is expected to gust over 70 mph.
Expect the first cold front of the phasing lows to move over the
area by Thursday AM, allowing additional showers and thunderstorms
to impact Upper MI. There is a low chance for some severe wx
Thursday into Thursday evening, as there is some modest turning of
the winds with height and CAPEs are projected to be near 1000 to
2000 J/kg tomorrow due to the warm air remaining aloft ahead of the
cold fronts; in addition, there are some pockets of dry air aloft
that could bring severe winds down to the sfc. A few things may
limit severe wx though, namely the mostly cloudy skies over the CWA
Thursday ahead and along the cold front and a cap remaining near the
850 mb lvl. While the cap is likely to be overcome via forcing from
the cold front, due to the cloud cover, strong lapse rates may
become limited (although some models do hint at strong lapse rates
in the boundary layer still). Therefore, while all the severe wx
threats are still technically on the table, confidence is shaky that
it will materialize; I think a lot of it will depend on whether
cloudier conditions prevail, or if there can be a few breaks in the
cloud cover. Behind the first cold front Thursday, a secondary cold
front looks to move in immediately afterwards early Thursday
evening. Given that CAM models show a line of thunderstorms
developing along that second front, and profiles still look moist
and warm enough allow for some modest convective growth, thinking
the severe wx threat should be about the same for this front too
Thursday evening. By around midnight, the showers and thunderstorms
should be out of Upper MI. Highs Thursday are projected to get into
the low to mid 80s in interior west and central, and the 70s near
the Great Lakes and east. Lows Thursday night are expected to drop
into the mainly the 50s, with the coolest temps expected west as the
skies clear over there first.
Behind the secondary cold front, expect drier and slightly cooler
than normal wx this weekend as ridging over the Great Plains moves
over us. As we get into early next week, we could see a shortwave or
two move through the area, bringing showers and thunderstorms back
over Upper MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 723 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022
A trough will move into the area tonight bringing strong low level
winds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A 60 to 70kt low
level jet will result in LLWS at all terminals after midnight
tonight through tomorrow morning. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight into tomorrow though the best
coverage appears to be over Lake Superior tonight with the TAF sites
on the southern edge the system. Addition showers and thunderstorms
are expected Thursday morning into the afternoon though confidence
on exact timing and placement is low, kept precip mentions mainly
vicinity. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
however if showers occur over the central U.P. this could introduce
enough moisture into the low levels to bring MVFR CIGs to KSAW for a
time in the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 357 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2022
Winds of 20 knots or less become southerly winds of 20 to 30 knots
across the eastern lake tonight as a warm front traverses Lake
Superior. A few gale force gusts up to 35 knots are possible along
the immediate lakeshore near Ironwood to Ontonagon, and again from
L`Anse past Marquette to Munising. As winds veer to the southwest
Thursday along the first of two cold fronts, expect winds to
continue at speeds of 20 to 25 knots. After the second cold front`s
passage Thursday evening, expect winds to die down to 20 knots or
less, generally remaining that way until the end of the forecast
period.
Some patchy fog is possible tonight into Thursday, before ending in
the east Thursday evening as drier and colder air sets in.
Thunderstorms are possible across Lake Superior tonight into
Thursday evening.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
418 PM MST Wed Jun 29 2022
.UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
During the latter half of the week, thunderstorm coverage will
gradually shift towards higher terrain locations north and east of
Phoenix. Then, a drying trend will become increasingly likely across
the entire area during at least the first half of next week with
little to no thunderstorm activity. Slightly above normal
temperatures should retreat closer to the seasonal average through
the holiday weekend before warming again into the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early afternoon WV satellite imagery shows the anti-cyclone center
has shifted along the CO-NM border with deep southeast flow becoming
established across the forecast area. While the primary inverted low
pressure system has stalled over NE Mexico, a smaller, more subtle
shortwave was embedded in the SE flow over northern Sonora creating
convectively favorable upper level divergence over the southern half
of Arizona. Objective analysis and in situ ACARS soundings indicate
MLCape has increased to near 1000 J/kg, albeit with notable
inhibition still relevant around the top of the boundary layer.
However, robust thunderstorm development began in parts of the state
as early as 17Z in the face of this rather large CinH suggesting
enhanced forced ascent capable of breaching this inhibition.
With DCape increasing near 1500 J/kg, any thunderstorms in this
environment will be capable of producing strong downburst wind gusts
and organized outflow which will rapidly help invigorate additional
storm development (especially given the surrounding good synoptic
scale lift). The culmination of multiple large outflow boundaries
will support areas of blowing dust across the dust prone areas of
Pinal, Maricopa, La Paz, and Yuma counties. Accumulating rainfall
will be more difficult to come by with NBM probabilities of
accumulations exceeding 0.10" just under 35%. Therefore, the flood
threat appears low at this time, although cannot be totally ruled
out, especially if there are training or consolidation of storms
behind an outflow boundary.
Even though HREF ensemble has not been particularly aggressive
with storm coverage this afternoon, the aforementioned parameters
may argue for better convergence and clustering of numerous storms
through western Maricopa County this evening. A period of greater
foreast uncertainty exists Thursday morning as a handful of CAMs
(including several HRRR iterations) have produced expansive
midlevel accas showers/embedded storms over (or around) the
Phoenix metro. These type of scenarios are forecast by CAMs
frequently in the monsoon, however only come to fruition a
fraction of the time though remains a 20% chance of occurring
based on analysis of forecast details. Aside from this
possibility, activity Thursday afternoon should begin the retreat
to high elevations with a more hostile environment for deep
convection developing in the lower deserts. Long traveling outflow
winds will still be possible into lower elevation communities
with NBM POPs dropping below 15%.
The hemispheric synoptic pattern towards the end of the week will
feature a deepening trough situated off the west coast. This will
result in increased southwesterly flow impinging into the SW Conus
and resulting in a gradual shift of better quality moisture
eastward. As a result, the better chances of storms Friday will be
confined mainly to the higher elevations zones located north and
east of Phoenix, where NBM PoPs fall in a 30-40% range while lower
elevations fail to even register 10%. The aforementioned west coast
trough deepens even further during the weekend through early next
week, and the moisture plume will likely be pushed further east into
extreme eastern Arizona and New Mexico. The vast majority of the
CWA, including higher terrain areas, should expect little to no
storm activity with NBM POPs barely registering 20% anywhere within
the forecast area starting Sunday.
Temperatures through the end of the week and holiday weekend will
slightly cool into a seasonally normal range as 500 mb heights dip
slightly due to the influence from the developing west coast trough.
This trough will eventually lift away from the region during the
middle of next week, and the preponderance of model evidence points
towards subtropical ridge retrogression and intensification over
the area during the latter half of next week potentially resulting
in a period of excessive heat before the wetter portion of
the monsoon pattern reloads.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
A strong outflow boundary is currently moving out of the metro
area with all sites now observing southerly wind. Dense blowing
dust is occurring with this boundary, but visibilities should
begin to recover over the next hour. Scattered thunderstorms
resulting in erratic wind shifts will continue to be possible for
the next few hours. Cloud bases should remain near or above 10
kft. Overnight, winds will favor the southeast but may be variable
at times. An additional uptick in shower activity is possible
after 10Z on Thursday morning but any showers should diminish by
late morning. Winds will shift to southwest by Thursday early
afternoon.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds at KIPL will favor the west this evening with some gustiness
this evening and again Thursday evening. Winds may shift to
southeast on Thursday morning for a few hours. At KBLH winds will
mostly favor the southwest with some gustiness developing Thursday
afternoon. A few clouds are expected, but mostly above 10kft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm activity for the remainder of the week will be mostly
confined to higher terrain locations north and east of Phoenix.
Mainly dry conditions, even across the higher terrain, is becoming
increasingly likely during at least first part of next week as drier
air overtakes the area. Afternoon humidity values will range between
15-30% through the rest of the week, then decrease closer to the 10-
25% range early next week. Overnight recovery will generally be 25-
50% over lower elevations and 50-80% over the higher terrain of
eastern districts. Increased southwest winds will begin to become
more common over western districts this weekend, but remain well
below critical thresholds. Otherwise aside from thunderstorm
outflows, winds in eastern districts should not pose problems.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...18/Lojero
AVIATION...Hodges
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
A little enhanced cu developed earlier this afternoon, and now a
few isolated showers and storms have developed as well. Latest
HRRR shows this fairly well, and it really should survive until
around 00Z at the latest. Otherwise, dry through Thursday. Warming
trend continued, with afternoon highs on Thursday rebounding
towards the 100 degree mark in several locations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Hot conditions and mainly dry conditions continue. Isolated showers
an thunderstorms remain possible Saturday afternoon, as a weak
tropical disturbance in the western Gulf moves north across the
eastern half of Texas. Areas along/east of I-35 have the best
potential for rain, but a few storms are possible in the San Angelo
County Warning Area. Unfortunately rainfall amounts will not be
significant for West Central Texas, and as the upper ridging
strengthens Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures warm to highs of 100
to 103.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022
VFR conditions are expected at our TAF sites through the next 24
hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring this
evening to the west of a Robert Lee to San Angelo to Sonora line.
This isolated convection will dissipate by late evening, and
mostly clear skies are expected overnight and Thursday. East-
southeast winds this evening will become light south overnight.
On Thursday, weak south-southwest winds in the morning will
become southeast at 6-10 knots in the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 71 96 72 95 / 0 10 0 10
Brownwood 69 97 72 94 / 0 0 0 10
Sweetwater 71 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 71 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 70 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...19