Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/29/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1003 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Summary: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
through Thursday afternoon with near normal temperatures. Quieter
conditions are expected Friday through Saturday morning. Another
few rounds of storms are possible Saturday afternoon through
Sunday.
A cold front stretched from western Upper Michigan to near
Phillips (PBH) to near Osceola (OEO) and into central Minnesota.
Showers and thunderstorms have percolated along the front in an
environment characterized by 750 to 1250 J/kg of MLCAPE and
effective bulk shear of around 35 knots per SPC RAP mesoanalysis.
Behind the front, a shortwave trough with a lobe of channelized
vorticity on its southwestern periphery as located over northern
Minnesota back into southern Manitoba. Mid-level convergence was
producing a few showers along this feature. Look for precipitation
to gradually trend southeastward with time this evening and
eventually dissipate by late evening. A few severe storms are
still possible, but the limited CAPE and shear, combined with
anvil cloud cover inhibiting further destabilization ahead of the
front, will keep chances low.
Attention then pivots to another strong to severe storm threat
for Wednesday as another shortwave trough propagates eastward
through the flow. Southwesterly flow aloft will bring a surge of
instability into the region. A warm front will lift northeastward
through the Upper Midwest during the day into the evening.
Elevated showers and storms are expected to develop ahead of front
over far northern Minnesota Monday morning as a veering low-
level jet moves out of the Dakotas and into the state. 0-6 km
shear appears much more favorable for organized convection, around
40 to 50 knots. Large cyclonically curved hodographs seem to
support supercells initially and there is a potential for upscale
growth during the evening. The low-level jet will strengthen
during the evening and should lead to increased convergence and
coverage of storms with time. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Gusty
southeast winds are expected ahead of the warm front, veering
southwesterly behind the front. Storms are expected to move out of
the Northland during the overnight, but a few may linger past
sunrise in northeast Minnesota.
A cold front will follow on Thursday with another round of strong
to severe storms possible. Storms may develop in the morning over
northeast Minnesota into central Minnesota, but northwest
Wisconsin has the best chance of storms as the cold front passes.
Quieter conditions are on tap for Friday through Saturday morning
before another period of active weather arrives Saturday afternoon
and evening and continues through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Conditions are expected to be VFR. A few lingering showers will be
possible over BRD early this evening, but skies should quickly
clear. Fog development is possible over north-central WI tonight.
However, this fog will likely remain east of HYR. Cloud cover will
increase tomorrow morning as scattered showers impact areas along
and north of the Iron Range. DLH may also see some scattered showers
in the afternoon. Also expect an increase in east to southeast winds
tomorrow afternoon. Thunderstorms are unlikely to begin until after
00z tomorrow, so a VCTS mention was left out of this update.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
10 PM Update: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning for zones around the Twin Ports, as well
as the South Shore. An extension and possible expansion of the Small
Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday, since southwest winds will
remain gusty. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track since the
previous update.
Previous Discussion: There will be a few chances of thunderstorms
over western Lake Superior during the next few days. A warm front
will lift northward across the lake Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night. Storms are possible along and ahead of the front, a
few of which may be strong to severe. Winds behind the front may be
a bit gusty, approaching 25 knots. A cold front will move over the
lake Thursday afternoon with another chance of strong to severe
storms. Hail larger than pennies and wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots
are possible with the strongest storms. Friday is shaping up quieter
as high pressure drifts overhead.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 47 71 58 82 / 10 30 50 40
INL 44 72 60 76 / 0 50 50 20
BRD 51 83 68 84 / 10 10 40 30
HYR 47 79 67 84 / 10 10 40 60
ASX 46 78 64 85 / 10 20 50 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
for LSZ121-145>148-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ144.
&&10 PM Update: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning for zones around the Twin Ports, as well
as the South Shore. An extension and possible expansion of the Small
Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday, since southwest winds will
remain gusty. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track since the
previous update.
Previous Discussion: There will be a few chances of thunderstorms
over western Lake Superior during the next few days. A warm front
will lift northward across the lake Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night. Storms are possible along and ahead of the front, a
few of which may be strong to severe. Winds behind the front may be
a bit gusty, approaching 25 knots. A cold front will move over the
lake Thursday afternoon with another chance of strong to severe
storms. Hail larger than pennies and wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots
are possible with the strongest storms. Friday is shaping up quieter
as high pressure drifts overhead.
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh/Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
606 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
...00z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
It has been a beautiful late June day with comfortable humidity
(dewpoints in the 50s) and temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A
surface front was located well to the north across portions of
southern into central Minnesota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Showers and storms will form well north of the area this afternoon
and evening, possibly congealing into a line across parts of
southeast Minnesota, far northern Iowa, and into west-central
Wisconsin. The mean 850-300mb steering flow will guide the
convection to the SE, potentially reaching areas north of highway
20 after 9 - 10 PM but in a weakening phase as diurnal
instability wanes. The scattered showers/storms could sag as far
south as highway 30 to I-80 late tonight, becoming less organized
with time. For now, have the highest rain chances along and north
of the highway 20 corridor, tapering to low end slight chances
along the I-80 counties.
The latest HRRR runs are fairly limited on coverage of storms in
our area compared to several of the 12Z HREF members which had too
high of surface dewpoints (low/mid 60s this afternoon vs.
mid/upper 50s in reality). Therefore, the more aggressive 12Z CAMs
that brought an organized line of convection all the way toward
the I-80 corridor tonight may be overdone and current rain chances
reflect the more conservative trends of the HRRR.
It will be another warm day on Wednesday with highs in mid 80s to
low 90s and slightly more humid conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Key Messages:
1. Highs mainly in the mid and upper 80s, Slightly Cooler Friday,
and Warmer Thursday and next Tuesday
2. Best rain chances Friday and Saturday
Discussion:
Thursday, there will be plenty of sunshine along with breezy
southwest winds as high pressure moves off to the east and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Highs will reach into the upper
80s to lower 90s, but dew points will remain in the upper 50s and
low 60s. The gusty southwest winds may actually make it feel
slightly cooler than the actual temperature.
Early Friday through Saturday, the cold front will be slowly moving
through the area bringing a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The front appears to be slower than
previously forecast. The best chances (30-50 POPs) for rain will be
in the NW half Friday morning shifting to the central portions
Friday afternoon (40-50 POPs). The front is expected to stall just
south of the area Saturday, with locations along and south of I 80
having the higher chances (30-50 POPs) for seeing rain through most
of the day Saturday. Friday highs will be in the upper 70s to low
80s NW to the mid and upper 80s SE. Saturday highs will mainly be in
the low to mid 80s.
Sunday, the Fourth of July and into Tuesday, the forecast blend has
slight or low chance POPs (20-30 percent), but believe there will be
several dry hours; especially Sunday into Monday, as high pressure
moves by across the Great Lakes. There remains some uncertainty as
to how far the front will drop through the area before stalling out.
If it is further south, then drier conditions will be seen. If it is
closer to the CWA, the southern parts of the CWA may see more
rainfall with repeated bouts of rain. This will be refined in later
forecasts. A warm front is expected to lift NE into the region on
the Fourth and more so into next Tuesday with a disturbance in NW
flow resulting in better rain chances as well as an increase in heat
and humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Expect primarily VFR conditions for this TAF. Gusty southwest
winds will diminish this evening, becoming light & variable for
most overnight. There is a threat of a shower or storm mainly for
KDBQ/KCID with the approach of a front late this evening, but
latest guidance favors a diminishing trend with storms as the sun
sets. Therefore, left TSRA mention out of this TAF.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Speck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
608 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period. Ceilings
start out around 070-120 this evening due to lingering shower and
thunderstorm activity. The thunderstorms should dissipate later in
the evening, but may produce outflows and gusty winds at the
airports. Amendments in TAFs are possible in the next several
hours if the activity approaches a TAF site. Other than variable
outflow winds, surface winds will be generally from the east and
northeast tonight. For Wednesday, ceilings rise to 200-250,
although isolated thunderstorms may result in lower cloud bases
along with gusty outflow winds. East to southeast winds are
expected at 5 to 10 kts for the afternoon outside of outflow
boundaries. The possibility of thunderstorms may be added to TAFs
in future cycles.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The monsoonal rains will continue across the Borderland through
most of the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the work week with localized
heavy rain possible, mainly focused over the mountains. Coverage
in moisture and rain chances will increase heading into the
weekend across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain
a few degrees below the seasonal average through the forecast
period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday...
A somewhat complicated weather pattern in place today while the CWA is
under the influence of multiple features. A subtropical high is
centered over UT and AZ with a trough axis across the Southern Plains
extending toward the border of ours and ABQ`s CWA. There is
considerable mid and upper level drying behind this trough axis, but it
is slow moving. Typically an UL trough axis would help foster
thunderstorm development, but coverage is only slightly more active
than what would be typically seen at 12:30. Moisture is rich with this
morning`s sounding showing about 1.4" of PWAT. CAMs show a very
unhelpful range of guidance for today with the NAM Nest showing
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms while the HRRR shows
very little convection except in the mountains. Reality will likely be
somewhere in between these two extremes. The previous shift issued a
flood watch for the northern zones until midnight for the reason listed
above, and given the wet soils as well, the coverage and timing looks
good. Thunderstorms are likely to last past sunset given favorable UL
dynamics, but again, to what degree is highly in question as the
unhelpful range of guidance includes the global models tonight and into
morning.
The UL high to our northwest will quickly weaken while the high to our
east strengthens. Nevertheless the aforementioned trough axis will help
insert further drying into the entire CWA. Since most of the drying
will be at mid and upper levels, PWATs will still remain around an
inch, which will be sufficient for scattered mountain and isolated
lowland thunderstorms. The drier air will lead to a decrease in cloud
coverage and thus an increase in temperatures though still expected to
remain below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Wednesday...
An elongated upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in
control through most of the long term period. The elongated ridge
stretches from the eastern Pacific to the east coast of the CONUS.
On Thursday and into Friday, the center of high pressure will
remain to our east over central Texas. This will allow the
monsoonal plume of moisture to stream north into Arizona and New
Mexico, the greatest axis of moisture will surge into southern
Arizona. Precipitable water values will range between 1.0-1.5
inches over southern Arizona, roughly around an inch across
southern and SWern New Mexico. The main trigger and lifting
mechanism will be orographics during the afternoon hours on
Thursday and Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. Typical monsoonal pattern for the end of
June and the beginning of July. During the evening hours, storms
and their associated outflow boundaries will propogate off the
mountains and onto the lowlands with isolated convection possible
for all lowland locations. High temperatures on Thursday and
Friday will be a few degrees below average across the lowlands,
topping out in the lower 90s. However, areas that see less clouds
could see temperatures a few degrees warmer.
For the weekend, an upper level trough will insert the picture as
it approaches the PacNW. This trough will gradually nudge the
ridge of high pressure further to the east with the associated
monsoonal moisture plume focused over eastern Arizona and western
New Mexico. In response, shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase across the area, becoming scattered to possibly
widespread in coverage with the continued threat for localized
flash flooding. The main focus will continue to be over area
mountains. Guidance continues to hint at an increase in moisture
and rain coverage heading into the Monday timeframe. A nose of
dry air will nudge in from the east for the remainder of the work
week, with a possible drying trend as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Except for the risk of flash flooding across burn scars, there are no
significant fire weather concerns for the period. Monsoonal moisture
continues to move into the region. Nevertheless, somewhat drier air
will move into the area for tomorrow and Thursday with min RH values
dropping into the lower 20s and a few upper teens. Thunderstorm
coverage will decrease as well, but the threat for scattered mountain
and isolated/ few lowland storms will continue. Highs will increase to
near or just below normal. By this weekend, moisture will increase
again as will the chance for thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm
outflows, winds will be generally light topping out 10 to 15 mph. This
will help limit vent rates, ranging poor to good.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 92 72 95 / 30 20 20 0
Sierra Blanca 64 86 68 89 / 30 40 0 20
Las Cruces 69 91 68 94 / 30 20 0 20
Alamogordo 67 88 67 92 / 40 30 0 20
Cloudcroft 48 64 49 69 / 40 50 0 30
Truth or Consequences 61 89 68 91 / 30 20 0 30
Silver City 58 83 63 83 / 30 30 30 50
Deming 66 91 66 93 / 30 20 20 20
Lordsburg 63 91 68 90 / 20 20 30 40
West El Paso Metro 71 92 73 93 / 30 20 20 10
Dell City 63 89 67 93 / 40 30 0 0
Fort Hancock 67 93 71 95 / 30 30 20 20
Loma Linda 63 84 66 87 / 30 30 0 10
Fabens 67 93 71 95 / 30 20 20 10
Santa Teresa 68 90 70 92 / 30 20 20 0
White Sands HQ 68 88 72 92 / 30 20 0 20
Jornada Range 65 88 68 92 / 20 20 0 20
Hatch 64 90 68 93 / 20 20 0 20
Columbus 66 91 71 92 / 30 10 20 20
Orogrande 68 88 67 92 / 30 30 0 0
Mayhill 54 75 54 79 / 40 50 0 20
Mescalero 58 75 54 79 / 30 40 0 20
Timberon 57 73 53 78 / 40 40 0 20
Winston 57 81 59 82 / 40 30 20 50
Hillsboro 60 86 65 87 / 40 20 10 30
Spaceport 62 88 66 91 / 40 20 0 20
Lake Roberts 57 83 58 82 / 40 30 20 50
Hurley 63 88 63 89 / 20 20 20 40
Cliff 63 92 58 92 / 40 20 20 40
Mule Creek 57 87 64 86 / 30 20 20 50
Faywood 63 86 64 87 / 20 20 20 40
Animas 65 91 66 91 / 20 20 30 40
Hachita 63 91 67 90 / 30 20 30 30
Antelope Wells 63 90 66 89 / 30 30 30 50
Cloverdale 62 86 64 85 / 30 40 40 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ402-403-408-409-
412-414>416.
TX...None.
&&
$$
34/38/39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing early this
afternoon over portions of the I-10 corridor from schulenburg to San
Antonio, as well as over the northern Hill Country and Brazos
Valley. This activity, as indicated by the latest CAMs is expected
to increase in coverage through the next couple of hours. DCAPE
values shown on SPC RAP mesoanalysis are lower than they were
yesterday, on the order of 500-800 J/kg, but some brief gusty winds
from collapsing storms of 40-50 mph are possible once again. Not
expecting storms to be quite as strong as they were on Monday, and
coverage shouldn`t be quite as widespread, but any storms could drop
a quick 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain and even isolated totals in excess
of 1 inch are possible. Storms should fall apart quicker this
evening as loss of daytime heating should result in weakening
updrafts and energy for storm maintenance. By 8-10pm, storms should,
for the most part be winding down.
Wednesday will feature another shot at rain, but more isolated in
nature and more likely than not being confined to the Coastal Plains
and extreme western portions of the Rio Grande Plains. We continue
to monitor the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, the
NHC has a 40% chance for development as the western Gulf can be
notorious for spinning up tropical cyclones in a hurry given a
favorable environment. At this time, have kept PoPs less than 15%
for the I-35 corridor Wednesday night into early Thursday morning,
however, increased low level moisture and PWATs in excess of 1.75"
could result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances during this
time period. From 00Z Thursday to 12Z Thursday is the most up in the
air forecast time period as of right now, as it is very dependent on
how far west this disturbance moves and how quickly it moves inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
Two stories to focus on in the long term: First, a weak tropical
system will slowly come onshore somewhere near the Coastal Bend
Thursday into Friday bringing a marginal risk for locally heavy rain
mainly to our southeastern Coastal Plains Counties. Then heat
concerns will return next week with highs back into the upper 90s
and low 100s and heat indices in the mid 100s.
The details: Thursday morning, model guidance indicates a weak
tropical low will be located near or just offshore along the south
TX coast. Recent discussions with NHC indicate they expect the
possibility this may be a low-end tropical depression by that time.
It is anticipated to slowly push northward through Friday. The 12Z
operational GFS throws a bit of a wrench into the forecast with a
slower, more westward track of the upper low. While this solution
cannot be thrown out entirely, ensemble guidance allows us to have
moderately high confidence that rain chances will mainly impact
areas along and east of I-35. The day 3 WPC Excessive rainfall
Outlook will include a Marginal Risk of locally heavy rain across
Fayette, DeWitt, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties Thursday through
Thursday night. A worst case scenario of an isolated 3-6" is
technically within the realm of possibility, but we anticipate
rainfall amounts will likely fall below 1" for the vast majority of
the region and locations near and west of I-35 could see little or
even no precipitation from this system. However, given the model
guidance spread, we will hold onto slight chance pops for the Hill
Country Friday into Saturday.
As a result of added cloud cover east, a couple of cooler than
normal afternoons are forecast there Thur-Fri with highs in the low
90s. West along the Rio Grande should still top out in the upper 90s
to near 100. A gradual warming trend of a degree or two each day
will then take hold over the weekend into next week for most of the
region as ridging amplifies across the central CONUS. Highs by next
Tuesday will be back in the 96-104 degree range areawide. South to
southeast flow will keep muggy air in place as well. Rain chances
are slim Saturday and beyond, however there is a low chance for some
isolated activity to impact Val Verde County in the late afternoons
Saturday and Sunday. In the longer term, the CPC outlooks as we head
towards the second week of July indicate a likelihood of above
normal temperatures and odds tilted towards drier than normal
conditions as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022
While AUS and DRT are in the clear, precipitation continues around
the San Antonio terminals. While the bulk of the precipitation is
north of SAT, RA and TSRA should continue for the next 1 to 2 hours
at both terminals dropping visibility briefly down to IFR/MVFR with
the heaviest precipitation. By 03z precipitation should have weakened
and moved off to the west. While most of the precipitation across the
Rio Grande Plains has been well to the east and southeast of DRT
there is a chance that thunderstorm outflows, in addition to briefly
changing winds at the terminals, may spark off a late evening shower
or storm. Chances remain low so have left DRT precipitation free.
Winds overnight will generally be light and northerly or
northeasterly. Winds turn more easterly on Wednesday with any
precipitation expected to be well to the southeast of the terminals.
Once precipitation clears this evening VFR conditions are expected at
all sites through the rest of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 92 72 94 74 / 30 0 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 71 94 73 / 30 0 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 71 95 73 / 40 10 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 90 70 94 72 / 30 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 96 74 98 75 / 30 40 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 93 70 94 73 / 20 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 93 72 98 73 / 50 20 10 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 70 95 72 / 30 10 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 74 96 74 / 20 0 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 91 74 96 74 / 50 20 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 93 74 98 74 / 50 20 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...Treadway