Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/28/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Made some minor adjustments to sky cover and pops for the late
evening update. Otherwise no changes.
We had one strong cell in the north near Lake Metigoshe, otherwise
convection remained mostly to our north and east.
In the southeast we are still monitoring an area of congested
clouds that has been trying to develop an occasional updraft, but
fails. This area will push southeast through Dickey county in the
next hour or so. LLJ looks to be modestly increasing from the
Aberdeen VWP. There is still some moderate MUCAPE around
1000-2000J/KG with bulk shear now increasing to 35 to 40 Knots.
Overall probabilities are small but if we could get a sustained
updraft a marginal hail or wind gust is not out of the question.
We kept some slight chance pops (20%) in the southern JRV for the
next few hours.
We also adjusted pops a little late tonight into Tuesday morning
as some of the late afternoon CAM guidance and now some of the
early arriving 00Z guidance is a little farther north and east
with a band of light rain, spreading into north central and
northeast ND. We also kept thunder limited to slight chance as
instability looks limited.
UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Short term convection chances are the main forecast concern this
evening.
Currently, we remain in a northwest upper flow pattern with some
modest channeled vorticity and a 70 kt upper level jet extending
from northwest into southeast ND. At the surface we have weak
high pressure over the forecast area with a surface cold front
poised just north of the International Border. The airmass over ND
is slightly unstable with SBCAPE generally 500-1000j/kg. 0-6km
shear is minimal over north central into eastern ND, but increases
to 40-45kts as you go into western and south central ND.
Convection over far southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba
is right at the border, and starting to cross into ND over Burke
and Renville counties. This convection has been non-severe and we
expect it to remain non-severe as it crosses the border into an
area of less instability than over Canada and very weak shear.
A second area of concern a bit later this evening is the far
southeast CWA, where convection is possible as moisture
convergence increases over this area and Bulk shear increases
from the west. 18Z HRRR soundings indicate a window of decent
instability and shear right along the SD border around 01-02 UTC.
The only problem with this is that the HRRR forecast surface
dewpoints are in the lower 60s. Current dewpoints are sitting in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. With the boundary layer much drier,
think the chance for surface based convection early this evening
is pretty low. There is an increasing low level jet that develops
here around mid evening, so an elevated mid to late evening storm
is still possible, but the area of concern in ND seems to be quite
limited to the southern JRV. The main severe threats would be
marginal hail and winds.
We adjusted sky cover a bit and will add some slight chance pops
back a little farther to the west early this evening along the
International border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm, look for seasonal
conditions through the short term.
Daytime heating has trough mainly fair weather cu to the region
so far today. CAMs still indicating two potential areas for
thunderstorms this evening through tonight. The first coming
mainly in the southeast as a surface trough takes shape a weak
boundary in the southeast may be enough to set off a few isolated
thunderstorms. CAPE values near 1000 may be found at this time,
although they appear to be a skinny CAPE profile and may not be
enough to keep up with the modest shear. That said perhaps an
isolated strong wind gust is possible this evening given high
amounts of DCAPE. The second round of isolated thunderstorms comes
overnight tonight as a back door front moves across the north and
east. Shear is strong along this boundary, although MUCAPE is
limited. DCAPE is also low, so overall severe threat with these
storms is low. Areas without any storms tonight will experience
mainly light winds, clear skies, and lows in the 50s.
Back door front slides completely through Tuesday morning. A few
lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly in the
north and east. The chances for precipitation from this front may
have shifted slightly westward compared to previous forecasts.
Once these showers diminish later Tuesday morning, the remainder
of the day looks to be slightly cooler, yet seasonal, and mainly
dry. Winds become more easterly through the day with a slight
breeze possible. Look for highs in the 70s and 80s, which is near
normal for the time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Periods of active weather and seasonal temperatures then looks to
be found during the long term period.
A few showers and thunderstorms may be found Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts through. Later in the day
Wednesday through the evening will be the next chance for severe
weather ahead of the next trough and cold front. Still a
conditional threat as the CAPE, moisture, and shear looks good,
although the warming aloft from the mentioned warm front may bring
a cap until at least the evening hours. Thus the SPC marginal
risk in the southeast east and east if probably fairly good for
the time being. Main threats would be hail and winds from any
storms. Above 90 degree temperatures may also return on Wednesday
within the breezy southerly flow. Thursday and the start of Friday
look to be more post frontal pattern with cooler temperatures and
limited chances for precipitation. Thursday especially could see
some breezy northwest winds across the area. Later in the day
Friday and almost through the upcoming Holiday Weekend we get into
a zonal pattern on the other side of a weak ridge to the west and
the large Hudson Bay low to the north. This keeps seasonal
temperatures to the region, yet may give us chances for showers
and thunderstorms almost each day as impulses move through the
flow. CSU Machine Learning shower low probabilities for some
severe weather at this time, mainly on Sunday and Monday. Which
may be needed to be monitored closely by those with outdoor plans.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms this evening, but at this it
appears convection should stay away from the TAF sites. KMOT and
KJMS would be the most likely areas this evening but even they are
too uncertain to even mention a vcts attim. A cold front will drop
south through the forecast area tonight. The west to northwest
flow we have seen the past few days will turn more north to
northeast on Tuesday, generally around 15 knots or less. A band of
low vfr ceilings is possible over north central into eastern ND
on Tuesday, and could move into KMOT and KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
940 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front shifting east of Vermont is ushering in much drier
air on gusty west to northwesterly winds this afternoon. A
secondary trough of low pressure across Ontario will bring
increasing clouds tonight, along with the chance of a few light
rain showers across northern New York, and the mountains of
northern Vermont. Mainly dry and seasonably weather will prevail
through Thursday, with increasingly warm and humid conditions
returning for Friday and Saturday. A cold front approaching
Friday night or Saturday will bring a renewed threat of
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 936 PM EDT Monday...Forecast is generally on track, only
made small tweaks to PoPs in Adirondacks as well as sky cover
and temperatures across the North Country for the next few hours
to keep up with observations. Also removed thunder chances
overnight as we haven`t seen much lightning at all with the
showers crossing the region so far. Have a good night! Previous
discussion below:
Already seeing dewpoints drop to near 50F at BTV and into the
upper 40s across the Adirondacks in the much drier post-frontal
air mass. Clearing has been sharp behind the front. However,
looking for clouds to increase again overnight in association
with secondary trough moving in from swrn Quebec and sern
Ontario. Should see skies becoming mostly cloudy from NW-SE, and
NAM3km and HRRR continue with the idea of some light showers or
sprinkles, especially in orographically favored areas (nrn
Adirondacks and nrn Green Mtns) given the relatively shallow
cloud layers upstream. Max PoPs are 30-40% along the slopes of
the northern Adirondacks around midnight tonight. Will be a
cooler night overnight, with overnight lows mainly in the low-
mid 50s, except upper 40s across the nrn Adirondacks.
Should see a gradual decrease in cloud cover during the day
Tuesday, with mostly sunny conditions redeveloping by afternoon.
It will feel quite dry with dewpoints in the upper 40s, westerly
winds 5-10 mph, and highs mostly 70-75F. Clear and calm
conditions Tuesday night may bring some radiational fog to the
favored locations. Added patchy fog for the favored valleys
roughly 05-11Z. Lows Tuesday night 45-50F for the Adirondacks
and Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom, and generally 50-55F elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 PM EDT Monday...Chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms return on Wednesday with the passage of an upper low
and associated cold front. However, the surface low is expected to
track well north of the forecast area with the cold front
significantly weakening as it arrives to the North Country. Still,
the decaying front paired with weak synoptic ascent should be
sufficient to produce scattered showers, especially near the
Canadian border. Marginal amounts of CAPE (100-500 J/kg) are
expected ahead of the front, resulting in a slight chance in
thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Shower
activity will lift out of the forecast area late Wednesday night.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to near 80
with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 353 PM EDT Monday...A return to dry weather is expected for
Thursday as upper level ridging once again crests overhead. High
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Increased southwest
flow beginning late Thursday will then aid in bringing above normal
temperatures to the North Country for Friday with highs creeping
into the upper 80s to near 90 This will precede the arrival of a
frontal boundary which at this time, looks to arrive late Friday
night. Widespread rain is expected across the forecast area
overnight Friday through Saturday, with a chance of thunderstorms at
the onset Friday night. Early signals show the potential for heavy
rain with the slow-moving front oriented parallel to the mean flow
along with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches. Rain is expected to
drift south of the forecast area by Saturday night. A cool, cloudy
somewhat unsettled pattern will take hold after that with embedded
disturbances passing through zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will
return to near normals values with highs in the 70s to low 80s and
lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Currently VFR with increasing clouds as
another frontal system approaches from the northwest. Some light
shower activity is already approaching KMSS, and this activity
will gradually increasing and shift east through the next 12
hours, and mentioned passing VCSH for northern New York
terminals and KBTV. Northwest winds at 6 to 10 knots will become
5 knots or less beyond 02Z with perhaps some calm to variable
winds, wind directions remaining southwest for KMSS and KSLK.
Wind speeds becoming 5 to 8 knots during the daylight hours.
Anticipate gradually lowering ceilings after 06Z, mainly at
KSLK, but think KBTV, and perhaps KPBG, will see ceilings around
2000-2800 ft agl as well. By 09Z-12Z, ceilings briefly fall to
around 900-1200 ft agl at KSLK, before slowly lifting. All
sites likely VFR beyond 16Z, with only localized showers beyond
16Z.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Haynes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
558 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022
...Updated for 00Z TAF Discussion...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
We currently have isolated to scattered thunderstorms going on
across the region, but none of them are near our TAF sites. I
can`t say we won`t see thunderstorms near one of the airports, but
right now I`m just not confident enough to mention them in a TAF.
Away from thunderstorms we will see mid and high ceilings of
BKN120-250 and those mid and high clouds will continue through
the overnight hours. Our surface winds will continue out of the
east tonight, with the exception of any strong gusty outflows that
get started from the thunderstorms. Tomorrow will be much like
today with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. But again not confident enough to mention in any of
the TAFs. Our surface winds tomorrow, like today, will be out of
the east of southeast and may occasionally be gusty.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...232 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
It is the monsoon, and typical monsoon weather is expected for the
week ahead. The days with least storm coverage are expected to be
Wednesday and Thursday while next weekend will feature greater
coverage and thunderstorm coverage. Highs will run at or below
normal for the period as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
Not much happening as of now across the Borderland besides a few
isolated thunderstorms, but can see a few features aloft. In the
vicinity of Hudspeth county, an inverted trough emerges in water
vapor imagery, helping to spark a few thunderstorms despite the
locally lower moisture. Looking farther north can see the high
pressure across southern NV and developing energy across CO-KS
vicinity. The northerly flow from the high pressure will help to sag
either a piece of this feature, or an MCV from the showers and
storms across central NM, or some combination of the two, south
across NM. Regardless, this energy will likely act to trigger some
showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours, specifically
across area mtns and Sierra county. Areas of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain will be possible as RH`s will likely be ~70%
from SFC to 500 mb. Rain coverage should lighten and lessen with
time into the predawn hrs. Besides some light breezes from lingering
sfc boundaries, winds will be light. Temperatures in the 60s most
areas across the lowlands, perhaps remaining in the low 70s across
the El Paso metro.
A little piece/circulation from the aforementioned energy may come
in clutch tomorrow. This looks to remain somewhat stagnant over
the area during the afternoon hours, providing just a tad bit of
upper level lift within the atmosphere. Coupled with mid 50s
dewpoints, PWs in the ~1.1 to 1.2" range, and ~300-1000 J/kg of
CAPE, scattered storms will be possible, even for the lowlands
(focused north and east of ELP). Let`s all clutch onto the HRRR as
it is the most aggressive with this activity. Given the pattern,
can see this scenario unfolding, especially since the HRRR also
hinting as copious amounts of outflow interactions. But, can also
see a scenario where lingering cloud cover limits activity in a
few areas. Nevertheless, expect thunderstorms tomorrow capable of
dangerous cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rain, and
breezy winds. Temperatures will be below average with values in
the 80s across the lowlands and 60s to 70s for the higher terrain
(>7500 ft).
&&
.LONG TERM...
As is typical during the summer, the subtropical high has its
clutches on our weather pattern. Where the high goes, so goes the
monsoonal tap circulating around it. To start the long term,
Tuesday evening, the subtropical high will be strengthening near
the Four Corners while scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
ongoing. By Wednesday, the western ridge breaks down quickly while
reforming toward the Ozark Plateau. In this process, some drier
air will be pushed into much of the CWA, but not enough to remove
thunderstorm chances. Instead, coverage will tick downward. This
drier air will remain in place Thursday.
Friday will be a transition to a more moisture-rich environment.
The prolonged effect of deep southward flow and eastward shift of
the subtropical ridge will allow moisture to spread back eastward.
PWAT values will increase to well over an inch while surface dew
points rise into the U50s and L60s. The result will be an increase
in thunderstorm coverage that lasts through at least Sunday. GFS
continues this moisture tap into Monday while the Euro begins a
drying trend. There is not an obvious trigger to help enhance
precipitation, but any slow-moving storms or if any trigger can
present itself, flash flooding and heavy rain could certainly be
an issue.
Temperatures will continue to run at or below average for the
period. By mid-week with the drier air, highs will be near normal,
but with the increase in moisture by next weekend, highs will
drop a few degrees. The latest NBM is warmer than the GFS and
Euro, but if we get a good surge of moisture, clouds would likely
keep us cooler than currently indicated--similar to what was seen
last week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Active monsoon pattern will remain through the next week with near
to above normal moisture and below normal temperatures. On Tuesday,
temperatures will be 10 degrees below normal with scattered
thunderstorms most locations, but predominantly focused on the Gila
Region and Sacramento mountains. Locally heavy rain and a few
instances of flooding may be possible, particularly near burn scars
and sensitive soils.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Thursday,
focusing again on area mountains with an isolated threat across the
lowlands. Temperatures remain below average and winds light outside
of thunderstorm outflow.
Friday, and specifically into this weekend (perhaps beyond), becomes
an active period of thunderstorm activity. Abundant moisture will be
squeezed into our area as a trough approaches the west coast and the
high pressure aloft remains to the east. Daily numerous
thunderstorms are likely across area mountains and at least
scattered across the lowlands. Given the pattern and the projected
moisture quality, areas of heavy rain with the potential for
flooding will be possible.
Min RH through this week and weekend are expected to be in the 20s
to 30s across the lowlands and 40s to 60s in area mountains with
excellent overnight recoveries. Ventilation will be a mix of Poor to
occasionally Good due to persistent thunderstorm development and
light transport winds.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 88 71 91 / 20 30 30 20
Sierra Blanca 66 83 66 84 / 20 30 30 30
Las Cruces 67 87 67 91 / 30 30 20 10
Alamogordo 64 83 64 88 / 50 50 20 30
Cloudcroft 46 62 46 64 / 60 70 30 50
Truth or Consequences 64 83 66 89 / 60 50 20 20
Silver City 62 81 60 83 / 50 50 20 30
Deming 66 87 66 91 / 30 30 20 10
Lordsburg 67 87 67 91 / 40 30 20 20
West El Paso Metro 71 88 71 91 / 20 30 30 20
Dell City 64 85 66 88 / 20 50 40 30
Fort Hancock 67 89 69 92 / 20 30 30 30
Loma Linda 64 83 64 84 / 20 30 30 30
Fabens 70 89 70 92 / 20 20 30 20
Santa Teresa 68 87 69 89 / 20 20 20 10
White Sands HQ 69 84 69 88 / 30 40 30 20
Jornada Range 66 83 66 88 / 40 40 20 20
Hatch 67 84 67 89 / 40 40 20 20
Columbus 69 88 69 91 / 20 20 20 10
Orogrande 67 85 67 89 / 30 40 30 30
Mayhill 52 72 51 74 / 50 70 30 50
Mescalero 51 73 51 75 / 70 70 30 50
Timberon 51 72 51 73 / 40 70 30 50
Winston 58 79 56 81 / 70 60 20 30
Hillsboro 62 82 62 86 / 50 50 20 20
Spaceport 64 82 64 88 / 50 50 20 20
Lake Roberts 53 82 56 84 / 60 60 20 30
Hurley 62 85 62 88 / 40 40 20 20
Cliff 58 87 56 92 / 60 50 20 30
Mule Creek 56 83 61 86 / 50 50 20 30
Faywood 63 83 62 86 / 40 40 20 20
Animas 65 88 66 92 / 40 30 20 20
Hachita 66 87 67 91 / 30 20 20 20
Antelope Wells 65 87 66 90 / 30 30 30 30
Cloverdale 62 85 63 86 / 50 30 30 40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Brice
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
A few thunderstorms managed to hold together into northeast ND
before quickly weakening with only showers/virga currently in our
north. IN the south we are starting to see a few showers/weaker
thunderstorms develop (just south and west of our CWA) near the
area CAMs had been indicating, with last few HRRR matching the
current locations south of our CWA and barely showing any activity
before it quickly transitions southeast after midnight. Overall,
isolated to widely scattered showers and weaker thunderstorms
seem to be on track for the nighttime period, with additional
showers maybe developing when a jet streak/period of elevated
frontogenesis develops (post frontal) around 09-12Z. Dry
soundings remain in place, so how much precip is squeezed out of
that activity is hard to say (still a light precip signal in
CAMs).
UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Upstream shower/storms in southern Manitoba is struggling to hold
together as it moves south and looking at RAP sounding this is
likely due to substantial dry layers in the low/mid layers across
ND/MN. There is still a weak signal for this activity moving into
our CWA north of Hwy 2, but confidence is pretty low if the dry
layers shown by RAP remain in place. Further south there is a mid
more of a signal for increasing mid level moisture/potential
saturation but low levels remain very dry. CAMs had continued to
show a cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms forming into
southeast ND/west central ND along the nose of a subtle
LLJ/theta-E axis but so far RAP analysis seems to show better
support for this further south after 05Z. Still, parcels will be
highly elevated with weakening instabilty profiles through the
nighttime period in the south, so confidence in more than a few
showers/non-severe thunderstorms is low even if there is
initiation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Tuesday morning are
the main focus in this portion of the forecast.
As of mid afternoon, the cumulus field has become a little more
enhanced over the far eastern FA, where a few showers and storms
have flared up. This seems to be tied to some spin which is
evident on water vapor imagery, potential upslope flow, and other
more subtle mesoscale features. This activity should shift east
of the FA in the next hour or two. The anticipated upstream cold
front has reached a Manitoba Lakes to Brandon to Estevan line,
where a cumulus line is also starting to look a little more
enhanced. The Minot radar is picking up a few upstream echoes as
well. This front and scattered showers/storms should move into the
border region by late afternoon/early evening. Several CAMs are
showing the potential for additional showers/storms over southeast
North Dakota/west central Minnesota during the early evening,
while others show them further south. Have less confidence in this
activity than that near the Canadian border. Finally, there is a
third potential batch of showers/maybe a rumble of thunder that
moves from north central North Dakota along the highway 2 corridor
(mainly in ND), very late tonight into Tuesday morning. None of
this activity is expected to be severe, and it should not bring
much rainfall either (outside of any of the storms). Behind the
cold front on Tuesday, expect north winds and slightly cooler
temperatures again.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Main topic for discussion within the long term revolves around the
potential for impactful thunderstorms on Wednesday. Otherwise, later
in the period, northwesterly flow aloft is expected to turn more
zonal as upper ridging is expected to redevelop into the central
CONUS by early next week. This would signal increasing warmth and
thunderstorm chances getting into early next week, including the
Fourth of July.
Wednesday:
Progressive upper ridging on Tuesday into Wednesday is quickly
replaced by decreasing heights aloft assoc with a passing low
amplitude s/w trof. In response to the clashing of low amplitude
synoptic features, winds increase aloft out of the WSW. In the lower
levels, this decreasing heights coupled with increasing winds aloft
will allow lee troughing in the northern High Plains. This will help
a poleward push of higher theta-e BL air mass into the Dakotas from
the Central Plains. On the leading edge of this warm sector, most
guidance is impinges a LLJ upon its warm front moving into eastern
ND the morning of Wed, with ongoing convection expected near the
encroaching warm front. While this convection is in an environment
rich with shear for storm organization, progged instability is
expected to be somewhat lacking partly due to better mid level
lapse rates separated from this better mesoscale forcing for ascent.
However, guidance doesn`t handle these scenarios very well,
particularly given mesoscale factors that drive storm
intensity/organization. That being said, will continue to message
Wednesday morning`s convection bringing some risk for hail should
better instability become better aligned with forcing, both of which
should utilize ample shear for organization.
Later in the day, lee troughing moves east out of the High Plains
and through the Dakotas into Minnesota by evening as sfc low moves
through Manitoba into Ontario. This should help serve as catalyst
for thunderstorm development Wednesday aft/eve. Continued increase
in low level moisture and thermal ridge within the warm sector should
contribute to at least moderate instability within the warm sector
(conditional upon ample daytime heating in the absence of cloud
cover), partly owed to steeper mid level lapse rates now
overspreading the Northern Plains. While the warm sector is progged
to be perhaps somewhat limited spatially given the progressive
nature of the trough/warm sector, there is still a window for robust
convection with the warm sector itself perhaps advecting with storms
as they move generally toward the east and southeast. With at least
moderate instability, shear, and forcing for ascent all present,
there is the possibility some thunderstorms will be severe. And
while specifics are limited at this time due to mesoscale and storm
scale dependencies that remain unknown, medium range guidance and
sounding analysis yield a potential for supercellular development
with large (potentially very large) hail and gusty winds looking
most obvious hazards at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
VFR conditions should prevail, with areas of clearing between
pockets of high based CU (8000-10000 FT AGL). Upstream in
southern Canada scattered showers/thunderstorms will try to move
into northeast ND and northwest MN but coverage/impacts will tend
to be low. A second area of showers/thunderstorms may develop into
southeast ND and west central MN overnight, but this too is
highly uncertain in regards to coverage/impacts at TAF sites.
Ultimately virga may be favored. A weak cold front moves south
with winds dropping off early in the TAF period and then
eventually shifting to the north and northeast by 12Z (some gusts
15-20kt possible behind the front Tuesday).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.DISCUSSION...
A boundary sagging southward into southwest LA was the focus for
storms this afternoon, most of which quickly dissipated after
sunset. However, a thunderstorm cluster seen well offshore is
going strong where plentiful moisture and unstable airmass are
interacting with the boundary. Convective activity is expected to
remain offshore through tomorrow morning when the boundary lifts
slowly north across southern LA. Showers and storms will spread
over the region, although those in south central LA have the
highest chance of seeing this activity. Along with the active
weather comes widespread cloud cover which will keep daytime
temperatures in check, topping out at around 90 F. The inherited
grid package was updated with latest guidance for thunderstorm
progression/coverage and temperatures, otherwise no changes were
needed.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/
DISCUSSION...
For the 06/28/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
Radar showing a cluster of TSRA over the Atchafalaya Basin, moving
westward. Expected to affect ARA/LFT within the next hour, and
continue through 02z. TSRA expected to diminish/move offshore
later this evening, with most of the activity staying across the
coastal waters overnight through Tuesday morning. By late morning
into the afternoon hours, VCTS at the southern terminals with
prob30/tempo groups for TSRA from 20-24z. For AEX, lower chances
of SHRA, just leaving VCSH for the afternoon hours.
08
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/
SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are a little lower this aftn compared to the past
week or so as a weak and poorly defined front continues to drift
south across the area today. Considerable cloud cover and a
slightly more stable airmass has helped keep convective
development in check across the LCH CWA, although storms are
popping up to the east and to the west of the area. A rather moist
airmass remains over the area with precip water between 2 and 2.2
inches per recent LAPS Layer Precip Water analysis. LAPS analysis
also shows a trend toward reduced CIN across the area as
temperatures continue to warm this afternoon. Thus, given the
presence of the weak boundary, abundant moisture and modest
heating, the ingredients are certainly available for a few showers
or storms to develop through the remainder of the aftn and the
latest HRRR and RAP13 show the potential for some convection late
this aftn into the evening.
24
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Wednesday Night]...
CAM guidance continues to depict at least some sctd convection
through the evening hours (although the FV3 and ARW appear a
little more bullish wrt coverage), but by around midnight,
activity should dissipate inland while nocturnal marine convection
begins to increase in the vicinity of a trough or weak low
pressure area developing over the NW Gulf.
The trough/low is expected to move slowly to the southwest through
the next few days, toward the lower TX Coast by Wednesday.
A plume of deep tropical moisture will remain over the region as
the sfc low and its associated disturbance aloft move into SE TX.
Meanwhile, the weak front that is moving through the area will
become stalled near the coast or just offshore. The combination of
the stationary front, disturbance aloft, anomalous moisture and
limited inhibition will contribute to scattered to numerous
daytime showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday. With increased
cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures will be closer
to seasonal normals, ranging from the upper 80s across the
Acadiana region where the higher PoPs will be located to the lower
90s across inland SE TX where rain chances will be lowest.
Rain chances will diminish during the overnight periods with warm
and muggy conditions expected to persist. Overnight lows are
expected to be near or slightly below normal as just a hint of
cooler air filters into the area in the wake of the weak front.
Minimums are expected to fall to near 70 across cntl LA, with
lower 70s expected elsewhere with the exception of middle to
possibly upper 70s in coastal areas.
24
LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
At the beginning of period, a weakness in the upper level ridge
will be noted across the forecast area that will persist into the
weekend.
Meanwhile, at the surface, an expected low pressure system will be
moving into lower Texas with it connected to the old surface boundary
along the southeast Texas and southern Louisiana coast as a coastal
trough feature. The surface low feature will lose its identity by
Friday over south Texas. The coastal trough feature will lift north
across the forecast area as the subtropical ridge builds in from the
east producing a deep southerly flow, that will keep high moisture
values of precipitable water greater than 2 inches in place.
Basically with the weakness aloft, coastal trough feature, and
highly anomalous air mass in place, expect high chances to persist
through the end of the week into the weekend. The best chance for
coverage and intensity of the showers and thunderstorms will be
during the afternoon hours. Only issue is possibly some local
torrential downpours with the activity.
With the expected daily convection, temperatures will be close to
seasonal norms through the weekend.
Early next week it looks like upper level ridging will begin to
build back into the forecast area with a reduction in shower
activity and an increase in temperatures.
Rua/07
MARINE...
A moderate offshore flow will continue tonight as a weak front
becomes stalled near the coast or just offshore. A trough of low
pressure developing in the vicinity of the front will keep an
east to northeast wind over the coastal waters, with a modest
increase in wind speeds and sea heights anticipated overnight into
Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines have been
inserted over the outer waters from High Island to Intracoastal
City.
The low will move southwestward, with moderate easterly winds
continuing through Wednesday. Winds will trend more onshore
through the latter half of the week as the low drifts inland over
S TX, while high pressure begins to build back across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.
24
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon for
GMZ470-472.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.AVIATION...
VFR TAFs will prevail through about the first 9 hours of valid
period or so. Plume of deep moisture associated with weak mid
level wave across much of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will
shift southeast overnight and across TAF locations by 12Z/28.
Expect scattered -TSRA to develop as early as 09Z or so and these
may affect all 3 TAF sites prior to 18Z/28 with temporary
reductions to VSBYs and CIGs. VFR should return after 18Z,
although some guidance suggests a lingering threat at KLBB through
00Z/29. JW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022/
SHORT TERM...
The upper level pattern is undergoing an evolution today as the
upper level ridge that has been overhead for some time is getting
shunted southward by an upper level short wave trough rotating
slowly eastward over southern Colorado. This trough will phase
somewhat with generally cyclonic upper flow extending from western
Canada to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As it does, the Colorado
shortwave should begin to take a turn to the southeast later
tonight. Some of the trough`s energy will split into the more
progressive flow to the east and northeast while some will get
caught up in the weaker flow in close proximity to the weakened
upper high that then rebuilds and amplifies over the 4-corners
region. The upper trough will also bring some of the deeper
monsoonal moisture with it and should act upon in a way to bring at
least scattered showers and some thunderstorms to a good portion of
the forecast area, not unlike the end result it has created across
much of the northeastern New Mexico northeastward into southwestern
Kansas today. The higher-res models are, in particular, picking up
on the lift/moisture interaction from late tonight through the day
tomorrow with the WRF-NAM, SREF, HREF, and RAP all depicting
something similar. Will bump precipitation chances up well into the
chance category, particularly across western to southwestern parts
of the forecast area with the lingering shortwave energy expected to
consolidate over that part of the forecast area and into neighboring
southeastern New Mexico. Increased cloud cover and shower activity
should limit high temperature potential tomorrow, especially on the
Caprock and have adjusted highs accordingly.
LONG TERM...
An elongated vorticity lobe is forecast to move southward over the
southwestern High Plains region late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the sub-tropical ridge amplifies over the southern Great
Basin and Four Corners. Clusters or a broken line of multi-cells is
expected to propagate across the Caprock, and the orientation of the
vertical thermodynamic profiles support the potential for efficient
rain rates with 700-300 mb generally near 70-80 percent. The very
moist column will mitigate the possibility of convective downbursts,
and warm-cloud layer depths upwards of 13 kft AGL will facilitate
tropical rain-like processes (i.e. small drop-size-distributions)
amidst PWATs at around 1.30-1.40". Corfidi vectors are forecast to
be unfavorable for back-building/training as high-level flow veers
to the northwest, and the weak steering flow will result in a slow
storm motion vector. With convection remaining loosely-organized at
best, swaths of rainfall will be ill-defined with 1.00"+ of rain
possible depending on locale. In short: the rainfall will be
beneficial, but flash flooding is not expected. After the vorticity
lobe propagates over the Permian Basin and convection exits the CWA,
subsidence will increase in its wake with dry conditions forecast
for the rest of the day on Wednesday.
Return flow will increase in magnitude on Thursday, with hotter
temperatures expected through the end of the week. A potent
mid/upper-level trough over central and eastern Canada will modulate
the amplitude of the sub-tropical ridge, flattening it out with
neutral geopotential height changes heading into the weekend.
Surface flow is forecast to slightly back by the weekend as ridging
amplifies once again over the northern Rocky Mountains ahead of a
500 mb closed cyclone moving towards the Pacific Northwest. The
barotropic airmass will support the potential for diurnally-driven,
tropical-like thunderstorms across the Caprock and extreme southern
TX PH this weekend into early next week with temperatures near or
slightly above seasonal norms.
Sincavage
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
13/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1034 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. High pressure building in
its wake will then remain in control through Fri. Another frontal
system may impact the area this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track as the cold front begins working its
way south through the area. Main band of showers continues
moving east of the area with just some lingering showers across
the east end of Long Island and southeast Connecticut the next
hour or so.
Earlier runs of the HRRR had indicated new development of
showers as the cold front moves through, but have since backed
off on this idea. Latest trends seem to support the continued
trend of dry conditions returning and have adjusted PoPs to this
idea through midnight. The cold front should be moving offshore
thereafter with gradually improving sky conditions through the
early morning hours. Clouds may hang on longest across Long
Island and southeast Connecticut.
Low temps tonight will be a more comfortable 55-60 inland, with
60-65 invof NYC and along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair wx returns as high pressure builds toward the area. Expect
a thermal trough to develop in the afternoon and help establish
a coastal sea breeze as well as aid in development of afternoon
fair wx Cu. Fcst high temps are a couple of degrees above
GFS/NAM MOS guidance, with lower 80s in the urban corridors and
across most of Long Island, with upper 70s elsewhere.
With a mostly clear night expected Tue night, low temps in the
urban areas should be similar to those expected for tonight,
mainly 60-65, but inland areas and the Long Island Pine Barrens
may be a little cooler, with lower 50s expected there.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern aloft will be characterized by troughiness through
Wednesday night. Therefore, generally dry and seasonable
temperatures are expected through Wednesday. Deterministic
models continue to show a shortwave moving through aloft
Wednesday night with limited moisture. However there are more
ensemble members in the ECMWF and GFS ensemble models than in
previous runs that are showing precipitation with this feature.
Continue to go with a dry forecast given uncertainty, but right
now it seems chances are increasing for just some light rain
showers Wednesday night. A weak cold front or surface trough may
move through late Wednesday night, but will do so dry with
little upper level support.
An upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region moves east
Thursday into Thursday night, building as it does so. This
will mean warmer conditions for the end of the week. Although
temperatures and humidity levels are increasing during this time
frame, heat index values still look to be below heat advisory
criteria at this time.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late very
late Friday night, but more so into the weekend as a pre-frontal
trough and associated cold front slowly approach. There is some
uncertainty as to whether this front will move offshore or
stall just south of the area, so stuck close to the NBM during
this time frame. With the warmer and more humid conditions,
lifted indices are indicating widespread thunderstorms, but it`s
too early to tell whether there will be any severe threat.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front moves across the terminals this evening and will be
followed by building high pressure overnight into Tuesday.
An isolated shower cannot be ruled out through 06z. Mainly VFR
conditions except for lingering IFR or local LIFR across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut. VFR prevails overnight
through Tuesday behind the front.
Winds will become NW tonight 5-10 kt behind the cold front
passage. Some outlying terminals may continue to see variable
winds under 5 kt. NW winds 10 kt or less continue after day
break Tuesday. South coastal terminals likely sea breeze in the
afternoon with winds shifting to the S-SSW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the NW may be off by 1-2 hours.
Timing of sea breeze at KJFK Tuesday may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday Night-Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR. SW gusts 20-25kt possible in the afternoon and
evening.
.Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in showers and t-storms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
S-SW winds continue to diminish on the waters. Seas have
subsided below 5 ft west of Moriches Inlet and have cancelled
the SCA here. Seas remain around 5 ft further east at the buoys,
so SCA remains in effect there until 06z. Tranquil conditions
return across the waters behind the front Tuesday through
Friday. Ocean seas may build Friday night to around 5 ft as a
southerly flow sets up ahead of a slowly approaching cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the rest of the
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Although northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday after the
passage of a cold front, a moderate risk of rip currents is
forecast as the area will be coming off Monday`s high risk, and
it typically takes at least another day to transition to low.
However conditions may improve by late in the day Tuesday to
low.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Wednesday as
southerly flow increases to 10 to 15 kt.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
305 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Key messages:
1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
afternoon, which poses a low risk for flash flooding over the Chalk
Cliffs and the burn scars.
Currently:
Showers have moved out the region over the eastern plains, but
showers and thunderstorms have developed over mountains and parts of
the mountain valleys. Environmentally, clearing over the mountain
and mountain valleys has allowed for an increase in instability,
with values near 1000 J/kg across the I-25 corridor and west. 0-6km
bulk shear values are around 30 to 35 kts over the El Paso County,
in response to low level winds from the east-southeast and upper
level wind from the Northwest. One note is that the winds are
notably stronger than model`s depiction of what was supposed to
happen today, meaning that there is more mass transport heading
towards the Pikes Peak Region. This leads me to believe there is a
bit better of a chance for thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and into this evening.
Tonight and Tomorrow:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the mountains,
mountain valleys, and the northern I-25 corridor this evening. With
thunderstorms developing in an environment with around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE, there is a chance for flash flooding over the Chalk Cliffs and
the Decker and Hayden Pass burn scar. Like mentioned before there is
the possibility for a stronger storm over the northern I-25 corridor
in El Paso County, since the environment has around 1000 J/kg of
CAPE and 0-6km bulk shear values of around 30 to 35 kts. All storms
should dissipate by around midnight tonight.
Thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated than scattered
tomorrow afternoon, but as with previous day before tomorrow, there
is a low end chance for burn scar flash flooding and flash flooding
over the Chalk Cliffs. Environmentally, CAPE values greater than 500
J/kg are expected over the majority of the region, however the
limiting factor will be any large scale ascent to initiate
thunderstorms. We will return to the warm temperatures tomorrow,
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the plains and
the upper 70s to low 80s over the mountain valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Key messages:
1) Isolated PM thunderstorms are going to be possible over the
mountains, with a very slight chance over the adjacent plains/I-25
corridor on Wednesday.
2) Better chance of widely scattered PM thunderstorms over the
mountains and an increasing chance over the plains on Thursday. Most
areas will see a chance of PM storms from Friday through Monday.
3) Temperatures will be very warm Wednesday through Thursday,
followed by a slight cooling trend on Friday through Saturday after
passage of a cool front Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will
rebound again Sunday through Monday.
Detailed discussion:
Tuesday night through Wednesday...
Any remaining isolated showers and/or thunderstorms over the
mountains will continue to diminish during the evening hours on
Tuesday. The HRRR is showing only a few discrete cells being over
the San Juans until around 7 PM and then a weak cell a little later
in evening around 10 PM over the northern Sawatch Range. The NAM 4km
Nest is similar in showing a few cells still over the central
mountains and Rampart Range, and one discrete cell over the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, which all weaken by 9 PM. Skies will
continue to clear and winds will become light across all of the CWA
with temperatures dropping down into the mid 50s to low 60s over the
plains, and the upper 30s to around 50 for high country.
The ridge will begin to flatten and troughing upstream will allow
for the mid and upper level winds to become a little more
southwesterly at the 700mb level and westerly at the 500mb level.
The monsoonal moisture plume does tend to be shifted back to the
west a bit more than the models have been displaying in previous
days. Mid level flow will become primarily out of the northwest,
although with moisture an instability lacking, most of the
thunderstorms that do form from orographic lifting will remain over
the mountains. With mid level flow being relatively weak, there is
the possibility that some thunderstorms that develop over burn scar
areas could become stationary and bring about the possibility of
flash flooding, although the risk of this is low. Instability will
be even less over the plains, and therefore any thunderstorms that
do move off the mountains and over the adjacent plains will likely
be short lived. Temperatures will warm back to the seasonal average
or even slightly above for locations on the plains and southerly
flow at the surface increases. downsloping southwesterly winds will
result in very warm temperatures over the plains and valleys, near
100 degrees for some locations in the lower Arkansas River Valley.
Thursday through Friday...
On Thursday, with even more of a west-northwesterly mid level wind
flow as weak longwave troughing to the north sends a minor 500mb
perturbation over the region. This will also send a cool front
through the area during the afternoon on Thursday, although timing
is not completely certain at this point as models vary. If the front
moves through a little sooner than what the ensembles reflect at
this time (of around 3 PM over the northern portions of the CWA and
5 PM over southern portions), then this could keep max temperatures
from getting to be quite as warm as what is currently displayed on
the plains and also allow for some potentially stronger to severe
thunderstorm development along the boundary. Otherwise, max
temperatures will be very warm with the downsloping southwesterly
winds ahead of the trough, heating up the valleys and the plains at
or slightly above the seasonal average.
On Friday, as the monsoonal moisture plume remains in place and
there is persistent northwesterly flow in the mid to upper levels,
thunderstorms will become widely scattered to numerous during the
afternoon and then move over the plains later in the evening.
Potential flash flooding with ample moisture available will be
possible, especially over burn scar areas. Behind the frontal
passage on Thursday afternoon, cooler air advection will result in a
cooling trend on Friday through Saturday, where high temperatures
will be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average.
Saturday through Monday...
Ensembles and deterministic models have varied slightly but remain
fairly consistent with the longwave trough propagating to the
northeast and then ridging occuring behind it over the Great Basin
on Saturday that will move over the region on Sunday and Monday with
a negatively tilted axis. There will also be a decaying upper level
low over California and the remnants of a tropical system that will
be absorbed into the ridge and enhance the mid level monsoonal
moisture plume. This will allow for further destabilization in the
mid levels, allowing for an uptick in thunderstorm development later
in the afternoon and evening over most areas for all three days.
With the 700-500mb level winds remaining out of the west-northwest,
this will help to push off any convection over the mountains into
the plains by later in the evening. Numerous thunderstorms could
result in flash flooding, especially over burn scar areas.
Temperatures will be the coolest on Saturday, then begin to warm
back up by Sunday through Monday as the ridge moves over and
southerly to southwesterly surface winds increase over the CWA.
-Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2022
All TAF stations, KALS, KCOS and KPUB, will have VFR conditions
through the end of the forecast period. Winds will be mostly light
at all TAF stations, but will have brief gusty periods due to
outflow winds during showers and thunderstorms. Cigs could lower at
any of the TAF stations during thunderstorm activity, but the
prevailing condition is expected to be VFR. Overnight at KPUB,
according to model soundings, there will be a period of ground
saturation, but conditions are not looking favorable for radiational
fog formation.
- RISER
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RISER/SKELLY
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...RISER/SKELLY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
219 PM MST Mon Jun 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be present each afternoon
and evening this week across southeast Arizona with plenty of
moisture in place. High temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through this weekend.
Convection has gotten a slower start this afternoon with only the
first showers popping up in that last hour or so. Activity is
still expected to less widespread than we saw yesterday as well as
weaker with more limited instability. Plenty of moisture remains
in place with current RAP analysis indicating PWAT values between
1.2"-1.6" from east to west respectively. This will continue the
threat for some localized areas seeing flooding issues with slow
moving storms or heavier showers as well as limiting the strong
wind threat with storms. The trough which fueled the overnight
showers is lifting to the north as as a ridge shifts inland today
over Nevada. As this transition occurs there could still be
showers triggered overnight across the area into early Tuesday
morning. Heights will continue to rise on Tuesday as the ridge
centers over northern Arizona. This should allow for another
slightly below average day in terms on storm coverage with best
chances across southern and western Pima County and the higher
elevations. A longwave trough will set up off the Pacific coast
Tuesday through late in the week as a shortwave ejects onshore
mid-week. This looks to weaken and split the ridge, opening the
door for continued moisture and wave activity moving up the
western flank of the mid-level ridge. This will continue the
active monsoon period through the week and into the holiday
weekend. If you are planning outdoor activities this weekend,
please stay up to date with the forecast as the weekend draws
closer.
Temps will remain near normal Tuesday and Wednesday with the ridge
in place before dropping back down a few degrees below normal
Thursday onward.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will develop from central Pima County eastward
this afternoon into the evening. The best chances will be along the
international border. Some -SHRA may linger through the overnight
hours. Skies will be SCT-BKN 6-10k ft AGL for most of the period.
Outside of showers and storms, winds will be out of the
east/southeast 8-12 kts with some occasional gusts possible.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers
and storms will be possible each afternoon across differing portions
of southeast Arizona each day, potentially lingering into the late
night hours some nights. Any storms will carry the threats of
lightning, strong winds gusts, and localized flooding.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public...Guillet
Aviation...Hardin
Fire Weather....Guillet
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