Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/27/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
943 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022
A cold front located from Toronto to Akron to Columbus will
continue to move eastward through midnight. High pressure then
builds into the region from the Central Plains Monday into
Tuesday. A cold front moves to near the north shore of Lake Erie
on Wednesday as it weakens.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front located from Toronto to Akron to Columbus will
continue to move eastward through midnight. A couple showers
were located along it but should only cause brief heavy
rainfall. After midnight all showers should be east of the CWA
with dry conditions expected.
The cold front is now oriented along a SE Michigan, NW Ohio, SE
Indiana line. Increased low-level convergence ahead of this
boundary combined with upper divergence and mid-level height
falls on the southern flank of a shortwave trough swinging into
the central Great Lakes is initiating widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms over north central and NE Ohio. The airmass is
only weakly to moderately unstable, but uncapped, allowing the
convection to develop. The latest RAP analysis depicts SBCAPE of
1500-2500 J/Kg over east central Ohio where there have been
more breaks in the overcast, but MLCAPE values remain poor at
only 500-1000 J/Kg. This is due to both today`s cloud cover and
flat mid-level lapse rates only averaging 5.5 C/Km since we do
not have an EML in place and mid-levels are quite warm. This
meager instability combined with only weak deep layer shear of
20-25 knots will not support much in the way of organized
convection or large storm coverage, so expect the convection to
remain scattered and only loosely organized at best as it
propagates east the rest of the afternoon. The latest SWODY1
keeps a marginal risk for isolated downbursts over far eastern
Ohio and western PA, and this remains reasonable since we cannot
entirely rule out something localized. Additionally, we will
continue to monitor for locally heavy rainfall/localized flash
flooding since PWATs are running 1.9 to 2.1 inches, freezing
levels are high with deep warm cloud layers, and there is a
fairly skinny CAPE profile with 850-300 mb mean flow only
supporting storm motions of 20-25 knots.
The cold front will be positioned along the OH/PA border by about
01Z with any lingering showers and thunderstorms exiting quickly
east. As the mid/upper trough axis swings farther into the central
and eastern Great Lakes tonight and early Monday while deepening a
bit more, much cooler and drier air will quickly advect into the
region. This will be aided by a strong 1026 mb surface high over the
Midwest tonight building east into the Great Lakes Monday and
becoming centered over the Ohio Valley by Monday night. The end
result of all of this is skies clearing from west to east tonight
and mostly clear conditions continuing Monday and Monday night with
pleasantly cool, below normal, temperatures. Highs Monday will
average mid/upper 70s areawide with low 70s in NW PA. Lows tonight
will cool into the mid/upper 50s except low 60s near the lakeshore
where onshore flow off of the 70 degree lake water will keep
conditions milder. Lows Monday night will dip into the low/mid 50s
areawide due to clear skies and light winds beneath the surface
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be the primary driver of weather throughout the
short term period, keeping conditions across the area dry. On
Wednesday, an upper level trough will dip across the Great Lakes
region as a low pressure system moves east in Canada. This will
result in a cold front approach the area, however with the strong
high still in place, all showers associated with this system should
remain north of the area. Winds with a northerly component will
persist on Tuesday, allowing highs to reach into the upper 70s to
low 80s. On Wednesday however, winds will shift to southwesterly on
the back side of the surface high and usher in much warmer
temperatures with highs on Wednesday reaching into the mid to upper
80s. Overnight lows will follow a similar pattern, dropping into the
mid to upper 50s on Tuesday night and then into the low to mid 60s
on Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As high pressure lingers of the area on Thursday into the first half
of Friday, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, reaching
into the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. On Friday afternoon,
a cold front associated with a low pressure over Quebec will begin
to move east across the area, which will mark the next chance of
appreciable rainfall across the area. The front will be slow to
meander through the area, keeping the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Saturday afternoon. Diurnal
instability trends will need to be monitored as any enhanced
instability will live increase the strength of any storms that
develop along and ahead of the front. However, if this front speeds
up at all, highs on Friday may be a bit cooler than currently
forecast, which may limit some instability, and vice versa. Once the
front passes, temperatures will cool a bit and conditions will dry
out for the last half of the weekend.
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
We will watch the eastward progression of a cold front that was
located from central Lake Erie to near Elyria to Mount Gilead
as of 2345Z. There could be a couple showers along this boundary
but dont think they will amount to much since we are losing
heating with the setting sun. This front should be east of the
CWA by midnight taking all the rain eastward with it. Maybe some
patchy MVFR ceilings near the showers. Otherwise we should be
VFR through the TAF period.
However we will need to monitor for some patchy fog where it
did rain this afternoon/evening. Nights are short right now so
any fog that can develop should be brief but could drop
visibilities to MVFR levels around sunrise, especially near
KCAK and KYNG.
Winds become west to northwest for all locations in the wake of
the front. Speeds generally 8 to 14 knots. A little stronger
near the lakeshore with gusts to around 20 knots. All locations
may gusts to around 20 knots through Monday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered thunderstorms Friday.
As a cold front moves east across the lake this afternoon/early
evening, winds behind the boundary will become northwesterly and
increase to 15-25 knots, allowing waves to build for much of the
nearshore waters to 3-5 feet. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for all near shore zones beginning this evening and
continuing into tomorrow. In conjunction, this will also create a
high of rip currents, making swimming conditions hazardous. A Beach
Hazards Statement has been issued for this. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through this evening, particularly for
the central and eastern basins. On Monday, high pressure will begin
to build over the area, with winds initially remaining out of the
northwest at 15-20 knots, but gradually weakening throughout the
day. By Monday night, winds will become light and variable,
returning Lake Erie to calm marine conditions. As high pressure
shifts east on Tuesday into Wednesday, winds will shift to
southwesterly at 10-15 knots on the back end of the high. These
conditions are expected to persist into Friday, before another cold
front moves across the area at the beginning of the weekend, marking
another shift in winds.
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for OHZ007.
Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for OHZ009.
Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ010>012.
Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ145>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ148-149.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1057 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022
The convective activity associated with a surface boundary has
began to decrease in coverage and intensity with the loss of
daytime heating tonight. Most recent SPC mesoanalysis data suggest
surface based CAPE has fallen to around 500-1000 J/kg. As upper
level support remains situated well to the north, the marginal
risk has been removed. This evening update focused primarily on
adjustments to PoPs based on recent trends. Some additional
activity will continue overnight as the front meanders E/SE and be
primarily isolated and spotty in nature but could become more
scattered in the morning hours as suggested by some CAMs. Recent
observations suggest very little lightning is present across the
area so also updated the wording from chance to only slight chance
thunder... which may even be a little generous. Otherwise, the
forecast remains pretty well on track. Updated zones and HWO have
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Numerous showers and storms on going across eastern Tennessee
associated with an approaching cold front. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms to impact terminals will continue
through roughly 5Z. It remains possible that any stronger
shower/storm could result in some reduced flight conditions,
however, not expecting predominant MVFR conditions until earlier
Monday morning. TRI/TYS remain the main focus for MVFR cigs but
CHA may see a brief period as well. Some guidance shows additional
showers moving through NE TN and SW VA Monday morning which has
been included with a prob30 at TRI. This could also result in some
fog. Northerly winds upwards of 10 kts tomorrow afternoon as cigs
return to VFR.
/ISSUED 334 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022/
SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday)...
1. Isolated strong to possibly severe storms through this evening.
Main concerns are localized flash flooding and strong/gusty winds
of 40-50 mph.
2. Frontal boundary moves across the area Monday morning with
cooler air spreading into the region.
Meso analysis shows a quasi-stationary outflow boundary from the
morning convection between GKT and MOR northward. Fairly unstable
air mass along and west and south of this boundary with MLCAPES of
1500-2200 with very moist air with PWS approaching 2 inches.
DCAPES limited between 500 and 600. Shear is essentially no
existant making storm mode more pulse celluar to multi-cell in
nature. Message remains that the main concern with these storms
are localized flash flooding due to the slow movement of the
storms and strong/gusty winds of 40-50 mph due to precipitation
loading enhancing downdrafts. These winds can produce isolated
downed trees and power lines. Similar to yesterdays storms but
Latest HREF and HRRR models show widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity over much of the area through this evening
producing some much needed rainfall.
This activity is associated with an approaching frontal boundary
with weak 850mb southerly flow/transport winds. Upper level
forcing is quite weak with best dynamics well north of the area
thus convection will weaken significantly by around sunset.
For late Tonight, frontal boundary will move into the Plateau
counties. Plenty of moisture and weakening instability can be
expected overnight ahead of this boundary. Isolated to scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm is expected.
For Monday, frontal boundary moves across the area during the
morning. Greatest coverage of shower and storm redevelopment will
be generally east of interstate 40/75 corridor. Frontal boundary
will exit the far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North
Carolina by mid to late afternoon ending chances of convection.
Drier air will advect into the western and northern sections of
the southwest Virginia and east Tennessee during the afternoon
with sunshine returing in the afternoon. More pleasant
temperatures and humidity levels are expected late in the day.
LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...
1. Below normal temperatures and stable conditions Tuesday with a
cold front south of the area.
2. A warming trend through the rest of the work week, with rain
chances increasing late in the week.
Front will continue to slowly move southeastward across the
southeast US. Front may remain close enough to the southern
Appalachian Mountains Tuesday into Wednesday that we get some
precipitation with an inverted trough over the area. Best chances
will be along the mountains and across southeast TN. Have kept PoP
chances low as it looks like any activity that does occur would be
isolated in nature. There will be cooler and more seasonable
temperatures for the first half of the work week under the more
stable air mass. Temperatures will begin to warm up during the
middle of the week, and we`ll be flirting with 90`s Thursday through
the rest of the weekend. With the low level moisture remaining in
place with the surface high off the Atlantic coast can`t completely
eliminate some isolated diurnal convection developing, but
widespread rain is not forecast through Thursday. Better chances for
convection will come as we near the weekend time frame with
increased moisture flow ahead of an approaching front. Have undercut
PoP guidance for this weekend, as it seems there`s some
discrepancies with the strength and timing of the low pressure
system, and associated frontal boundary as it moves across the
eastern portion of North America.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 86 66 84 68 / 50 40 10 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 83 63 84 67 / 80 50 10 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 62 84 65 / 80 30 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 81 55 83 61 / 60 50 0 10 10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
1) Low chance for flash flooding over the Chalk Cliffs and the
Decker and Hayden Pass burn scars this evening.
2) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon over the mountains and the Pikes Peak region.
Main focus of the stratiform precipitation regime is focused over
the southern San Luis Valley and extending over eastern Las Animas
County. Low stratus, drizzle, and light rain have been observed over
the northern I-25 corridor, as well. Some convective showers are
being observed over the Continental Divide extending over northern
Park County, which will eventually propagate over the Pikes Peak
Tonight and Tomorrow:
A weak wave, which has initiated convection to the west, will
continue to propagate to the east-southeast, increasing shower and
thunderstorm potential over the Pike Peak region and Fremont County.
Recent sky cover clearing over northwestern Teller County and Park
County have allowed CAPE values to increase to greater than 500
J/kg. While not the highest impact, there is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall rates and cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Burn scar flash flooding will be possible as the showers and
thunderstorms propagate to the southeast, with the main scars at
risk being the Decker, Hayden Pass, and Junkins burn scar. The Chalk
Cliffs in Chaffee County are also at risk. However, the risk still
seems low across all those aforementioned areas.
Southeasterly winds will keep the adjacent plains socked under
overcast cloud cover and the eastern mountains, whereas mid-level
moisture will keep broken to overcast clouds across the rest of the
region. The cloud cover will keep the low temperatures tonight right
around average for this time of year, even though we have this cold
air mass. Lingering showers will continue over the far southeastern
plains throughout the overnight in response to a continuous stream
of PVA and WAA.
Less precipitation coverage is expected tomorrow, with scattered
showers over the mountains and over the Pikes Peak Region. With that
being said, there is a low end shot at burn scar flash flooding if
one of those scattered thunderstorms develop over one of them. CAPE
values range from 500 to 1000 J/kg over the mountain. 0-6km bulk
shear values are close to 40kts in response to this NW flow regime.
So overall thoughts with this pattern and environment... isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected, if one of those
thunderstorms develops over the better shear over El Paso County a
stronger storm is possible. Main hazards will be locally heavy
rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts up to 45 mph.
Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow with 80s returning to the
plains and the upper Arkansas River Valley, and the 70s over the
rest of the mountain valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
1) Isolated PM thunderstorms are going to be possible over the
mountains, with a very slight chance over the adjacent plains/I-25
corridor on Tuesday.
2) Better chance of widely scattered PM thunderstorms over the
mountains and an increasing chance over the plains on Wednesday.
Most areas will see a chance of PM storms from Thursday through
3) Temperatures are going to gradually warm and be back to the
seasonal average by Wednesday. Then a slight cooling trend on Friday
through Saturday after passage of a cool front Thursday afternoon.
Monday night through Wednesday...
Any remaining showers and/or thunderstorms over the mountains will
continue to diminish going into the late evening hours on Monday.
The HRRR is showing some stronger convection still being possible
over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains at around 9 PM where
CAPE and instability is greater. This CAM also shows there being a
storm moving out over the northern I-25 corridor that continues to
weaken as instability decreases over the plains. The NAM 4km Nest
has a discrete cell over the San Juans at around the same time. It
appears that will all of the models that any convection should cease
by midnight. Winds will become light and variable across most areas
of the CWA. Temperatures will continue to cool under mostly clear
skies by early Tuesday morning down into the 50s over the plains, to
the 30s and 40s for high country.
The monsoonal moisture plume will shift slightly back towards the
west a little more as ridging subsequently builds back in over the
region on Tuesday. Mid level flow will be primarily south-
southeasterly and weak, so thunderstorm activity will primarily be
confined to the mountainous regions with only some storms
potentially moving off over the adjacent plains and over the Palmer
Divide area. With the weak mid level flow, there is the possibility
that some thunderstorms that develop over the mountains could remain
stationary and the outcome could be possible flash flooding,
especially over the burn scars. Southeasterly winds will also remain
in place over the plains and help to draw up warmer temperatures,
with max temperatures being much warmer and closer to the seasonal
average for this time of year.
Wednesday through Thursday...
On Wednesday, the ridge will begin to flatten and troughing upstream
will allow for the mid and upper level winds to become a little more
southwesterly at the 700mb level and westerly at the 500mb level.
Given this, along with a higher content of the monsoonal moisture
plume remaining in place, PM storms will have a better chance of
moving off the mountains and over the plains, especially along the I-
25 corridor. This will also be the case on Thursday, with even more
of a west-northwesterly mid level wind flow as weak longwave
troughing to the north sends a minor 500mb perturbation over the
region. This will also send a cool front through the area by later
in the afternoon or early evening on Thursday, although timing is
not completely certain at this point as models vary. If the front
moves through a little sooner than what the ensembles reflect at
this time (of around 3 PM over the northern portions of the CWA and
5 PM over southern portions), then this could keep max temperatures
from getting to be quite as warm as what is currently displayed on
the plains. Otherwise, max temperatures will be even warmer on
Wednesday and Thursday with the downsloping southwesterly winds
ahead of the trough, heating up the valleys and the plains at or
slightly above the seasonal average.
Friday through Sunday...
Ensembles and deterministic models have been fairly consistent with
the longwave trough propagating to the northeast and then ridging
occuring behind it over the Great Basin on Saturday that will move
over the region on Sunday. There will also be a weak upper level low
over southern California which will help draw up some more moisture
from the south and enhance the mid level monsoonal moisture plume.
This will allow for further destabilization in the mid levels,
allowing for an uptick in thunderstorm development later in the
afternoon and evening over most areas for all three days. With the
700-500mb level winds remaining out of the west-northwest, this will
help to push off any convection over the mountains into the plains
by later in the evening. Behind the frontal passage on Thursday
afternoon, cooler air advection will result in a cooling trend on
Friday and Saturday, with the coolest day being Saturday where
temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below the
seasonal average. Temperatures will begin to warm back up by Sunday
as the ridge moves over and southerly to southwesterly surface winds
increase over the CWA. -Stewey
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over KALS this evening with
MVFR and IFR conditions possible. Vicinity showers will last through
around 9z this morning. Low clouds will keep MVFR conditions
possible, through late morning before clouds mix out. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the mountains tomorrow afternoon, but
are not expected to make it over the terminal. VFR conditions will
be the prevailing flight category after the low clouds dissipate.
Low clouds and drizzle continue over KCOS, however visible satellite
is showing some clearing around the Pikes Peak region. This will
break from the drizzle and lower visibility. However, low clouds
will remain an issue throughout the evening an overnight. By late
morning clouds will mix out and the prevailing flight category will
be VFR. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon,
if a thunderstorm develops overhead, MVFR conditions are possible
as well as gusty and erratic winds.
Low clouds remain over KPUB and those low clouds will likely be an
issue through the overnight. The ceilings will be straddling the VFR
and MVFR threshold, unfortunately. After the clouds mix out in the
morning, VFR conditions are expected throughout the rest of the
forecast period. A gusty outflow wind is possible tomorrow
afternoon, but conditions will remain dry.