Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/26/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will bring hot and moderately humid
conditions to the North Country through the remainder of this
weekend. A cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region will
sweep through northern New York and Vermont Sunday night into Monday
morning. This front will bring widespread showers and the potential
for isolated thunderstorms and brief heavy rainfall. Following the
frontal passage, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures
will prevail through Thursday, with hot and humid conditions
possibly returning for the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1002 PM EDT Saturday...Upper air analysis places mid/upper
lvl ridge directly acrs the CPV this evening with very light
trrn driven winds crntly. This limit mixing has resulted in
higher dwpts pooling locally here in the CPV, where BTV has
bumped to 66F with upper 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. Have bumped
overnight lows into the upper 60s here near BTV and also
increased lows a little over the SLV. Otherwise, given the 1
degree temp/dwpt spread at SLK, have placed some patchy fog in
the grids acrs the dacks. Rest of fcst in good shape.
Previous discussion follows: Deep layer ridge in place across
NY/New England bringing a very warm afternoon with temperatures
well into the 80s in most locations, including 88F at BTV at
19Z. Dewpoints are 55-60F, except lower 60s across the St.
Lawrence Valley, so heat index values are not excessive (though
heat indices will be trending higher for Sunday).
May see an isold shower or thunderstorm through 00-01Z this evening
across the northern Adirondacks and far nern VT associated with
higher theta-e values over the terrain and localized orographic
processes. Any isold activity across the Adirondacks should remain
anchored to the terrain given absence of forcing and subsidence
aloft. The 12Z NAM3km suggests a cell or two. The HRRR suggests
the subsidence will win out.
Otherwise, will see daytime cumulus dissipate with onset of diurnal
cooling cycle this evening, setting up mostly clear conditions
overnight. Patchy fog is possible, mainly central/ern VT
(Winooski/Passumpsic/CT river valleys). Elsewhere, south winds
around 15kt at 950-925mb after midnight should provide enough mixing
to preclude much radiational fog potl from the Champlain Valley wwd.
Overnight lows will be on the warm side...generally 60-65F, except
55-60F across the Adirondacks and Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.
Low-level thermal ridge axis builds over the North Country Sunday,
with 850mb temperatures +18 to +19C. This should support valley
highs in the lower 90s. Similarly, dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s will yield heat index values 92-94deg in valley sections,
and will use the HWO to highlight the heat (just a degree or two
below heat advisory criteria for the St. Lawrence, Champlain, and CT
River Valleys on Sunday).
Will see developing S-SW gradient flow on Sunday with surface cold
front tracking ewd across the central Great Lakes region, reaching
the Ottawa Valley by 00Z or so. South winds 10-15 mph and gusts to
20 mph are expected, and locally up to 25 mph near/over Lake
Champlain. Not much low-level convergence, but we start to see
modest 700mb height falls and introduction of cyclonic flow across
nrn NY during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Most of the
day should be dry areawide Sunday, but have shown 30-40% PoPs
entering St. Lawrence/Franklin NY counties 21-00Z time frame.
Anticipate SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg given surface temperatures in the
lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s, so should see showers with
embedded thunderstorms during the evening hours. Deep-layer shear
still only 20kts or so, but PW values 1.9-2" suggest heavy rain
potential with any embedded convective storms across St. Lawrence
and Franklin NY late in the day.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms move eastward across nrn NY and
VT during Sunday night as cold front sweeps across the region with
best surface convergence. Instability will be decreasing during the
night, but kept a slight chance of thunder after midnight given weak
instability and frontal forcing. PoPs 70-90% for a 1-3hr period as
front passes Sunday night. May see briefly heavy rainfall, but
system is moving sufficiently fast to avoid any hydro issues.
Generally looking for rainfall amounts near 0.5", with some embedded
higher amts up to 0.75". Lows Sunday night mainly in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 PM EDT Saturday...Showers and occasional thunderstorms will
linger across the North Country on Monday morning, shifting eastward
as the day progresses. Highest PoPs will be around 8-9 a.m. in the
Connecticut River Valley (70-80%) with lower PoPs across the St.
Lawrence Valley where showers are expected to have largely departed.
By the afternoon, PoPs across eastern Vermont will be around 10-30%
with thunder chances falling drastically. As is typical, the GFS
rushes the precipitation out of the region, accounting for the lower
PoPs of the range, while the ECMWF holds it on a bit longer.
A secondary, subtler front is anticipated to arrive behind the
first, though it is less likely to produce showers. A couple areas
we are highlighting for continued slight chance of showers on Monday
afternoon would be the Adirondacks and Green Mountains due to
blocked flow (northwesterly winds) and orographic forcing. Winds are
expected to increase, mainly across northern New York and the
Champlain Valley, while the secondary front slips through the CWA.
Temperatures will be fairly seasonable with highs in the 60s and
70s, and temperatures will be able to recover faster across St.
Lawrence County as precipitation moves eastward and away from the
area.
Dew points are forecast to drop significantly with this frontal
passage to values in the 40s and 50s and will continue to fall
Monday night. PoPs in the Adirondacks and Greens increase to 20-30%
as Froude numbers dive to 0.25-0.35 overnight. Lows will be a bit
chilly with the cold air brought in by the front, in the 40s and
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 401 PM EDT Saturday...With a trough sweeping eastward away from
the forecast area, brief ridging is expected to take place on
Tuesday, though depending on the model of choice, the secondary
front mentioned above could linger some mountain precipitation. Due
to this, we kept some AM PoPs 10-20% in the Adirondacks and Greens.
Dry air suggested those PoPs remained low. Otherwise, high pressure
will reign with calm winds and clearing. Temperatures will be a
battle between the cold air behind the front and plenty of sunshine.
We went with seasonable upper 60s and 70s, warmest in valleys.
Tuesday night might call for another layer, however, as clear skies
allow radiational cooling to rule (lows 40s except some 50s
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys).
Wednesday afternoon and evening, another front could brush the
northern periphery of the CWA, bringing showers to the international
border. PoPs are in the 20-30% range for much of the St. Lawrence
Valley (showers and t-storms). Highs will be mainly in the 70s.
Thursday will be a warm, quiet day with highs in the 70s and 80s
under another ridge.
Sometime Friday into Saturday, a front is expected to move through
the North Country. Ahead of any precip, winds could gust a bit on
Friday afternoon. Once again there is model disagreement on the
timing of this front and its precipitation (showers and t-storms),
with our current compromise of Friday evening arrival. PoPs will be
in the 40-60% range across the Adirondacks on Friday night and 50-
60% in southeastern Vermont by Saturday afternoon. Stayed away from
the likely wording this far out, as we expect things to change by
the time the weekend gets close.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies with light, terrain-driven
winds are expected overnight. Fog potential is not too high
tonight, but mentioned the possibility with a 5SM tempo at KMPV
from 07Z to 10Z. Beyond 10Z, slowly increasing high clouds at
or above 15000 ft agl is expected, with south winds beginning to
pick up around 5 knots. After 15Z, most locations should have
sustained south to southwest winds at 8 to 12 knots sustained
with gusts 16 to 20 knots, with gusts subsiding after 22Z.
Scattered showers and a few storms will begin to develop towards
21Z around KMSS and KSLK.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Banacos/Haynes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
549 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
The afternoon weather setup as of 20Z this afternoon includes very
cool, and dry air behind a strong cold front being present across
the CWA. SPC Mesoanalysis depicts a 0C to +8C range of 700mb
temperatures spread across the forecast region, with the warmest
temperatures aloft residing over Albany and Carbon County. Low to
mid-level cloud cover combined with CAA has made it difficult for
a majority of areas to get out of the 60s for temperatures. There
are a few locations that have bumped up into the low to mid 70s
along the North Platte River Valley in the NE Panhandle. The main
weather feature responsible for the sharp change in temperatures
is due to a potent shortwave trof moving from west to east across
the Canadian Provinces and the northern CONUS border. Breezy
winds have also been observed throughout the cwa. Overall, it has
been a cool day with rain showers staying south of the CO/WY
border thus far this afternoon.
The remainder of this afternoon will see a gentle push of monsoon
moisture from the 4 Corners region northward. HRRR and NamNest
deterministic guidance suggest a narrow window of light rain
showers with a few rumbles of thunder across southern Carbon,
Albany, and Laramie County from 21Z-0Z. Not expecting anything
severe at this time. The cool temperatures are anticipated
to continue as cloud cover builds from the south. Likely to see
most areas have a daytime high around 70 to the mid 70s. The
aforementioned cloud cover that builds from the south will assist
with keeping temperatures elevated overnight due to thermal
effects. Lows will hover near the freezing mark in the highest
terrain of the mountains, and remain in the 40s for a majority of
the cwa in the high plains. A few locations may stay above 50
degrees across the North Platte River Valley for the overnight
low. There is a slight possibility that some of the cloud cover
could break across western Carbon County by early Sunday morning
and that would result in slightly cooler morning lows by sunrise.
Sunday will see similar weather conditions in comparison to
today...highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s by late afternoon.
Surface high pressure and another push of CAA aloft will limit
daytime highs east of the Laramie Range as a weak surface trof
sets up across the Laramie/Front Range. The warmest afternoon
highs will likely be across Carbon County as WAA and a plume of
monsoon moisture propagates from the south once again. Rain shower
activity is expected to be limited, with clouds sticking around
the Laramie Range into the NE Panhandle through approximately 0Z
Monday. Overnight lows will hover in the 40s to near 50 degrees
for most locations through Monday morning, with a few areas of
patchy fog possible as well across the Laramie Valley, I-80
Summit, to Cheyenne as weak upslope flow occurs.
Upper level ridge begins to amplify, and shift east from the 4
Corners region on Monday. This will cause daytime highs to rebound
quite a bit compared to the weekend temperatures...likely 10-20
degrees warmer. Additionally, with the ridge axis shifting to the
east across the Great Basin, that should allow for the plume of
monsoon moisture to propagate into our cwa by Monday afternoon.
Instability looks to be on the low end...500 J/kg in some
locations, combined with weak shear profiles. Diurnal afternoon
showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Laramie Range look
probable, but severe weather isn`t anticipated at this time.
Surface high pressure will have to be overcome, and with a lack of
any major atmospheric forcing mechanism, it will be tough for any
convective elements to become organized. WAA via southerly flow
overnight Monday is likely to keep low temperatures elevated in
the 50s for most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Dry conditions mostly across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska
panhandle as ridge of high pressure forecast over the western and
northern Rockies. Exception may be the Snowy and Sierra Madre
Ranges where we could see some showers and storms Tuesday
afternoon.
Ridge axis slides east over Wyoming Wednesday as an upper low
pressure system moves into the PACNW. As ridge shifts east...it
opens the western periphery of the ridge to southern flow and a
return of better monsoonal moisture. Both the GFS and ECMWF show
increasing QPF over areas west of the Laramie Range for Wednesday
afternoon.
Ridge flattens Thursday as low pressure tracks across Montana and
North Dakota. Could be a windy day Thursday as GFS 700mb winds
40+kts. Though local high wind guidance keeping Craig to Casper
gradients low for Wednesday night/Thursday. GFS 750 and 800mb
winds 60-65kts over the Summit and up by Bordeaux. Will need to
monitor this as we get closer to the event. As it stands
now...High Wind Warnings would be needed for wind prone area
during that time.
Front from the northern low pushes into the area from the north
Thursday night into Friday with 700mb temperatures falling to mid
single digits once again. 70s to maybe 80 degrees will be common
behind the front for Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Latest radar loop was showing orographic showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing over the Snowy Range. These isolated
showers have caused some variable wind directions at KLAR during
the last couple of hours. Some of these showers will bleed over
into the Laramie Range and perhaps affect KCYS before 02z, but
this shower activity should come to an end by sunset. This stratus
deck (4kft-6kft) may hang on for a while this evening into the
overnight hours. The main concern will be whether this stratus
will lower along and east of the Laramie Range overnight. The
models are showing good southerly upslope flow developing along
the Cheyenne Ridge which may help lower ceilings into the MVFR
category at KCYS and perhaps IFR on the I-80 summit. These clouds
may even stick around KCYS through much of Sunday morning before
gradually dissipating in the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Fire weather concerns are limited to low at this time. A recent cold
front will keep temperatures near to below normal this weekend. Min
RH values this afternoon will range from 25-35%. Breezy winds will
be present across the northern FWZs today, and across SE WY Sunday.
Overnight RH recovery will be very good, with values higher than 55%
tonight. Temperatures begin to warm up early next week, likely causing
additional curing of fuels.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Forecast Highlights:
-Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon to evening,
overall limited severe threat.
-Quiet weather largely return through first half of the week, cooler
to start
-Active weather suggested towards the end of the forecast period
with another pattern change
Morning convection, now seen mainly over Illinois by radar came with
appreciable rainfall, with highest amounts concentrated in northeast
Iowa between 3-5 inches. A few storms also impacted parts of central
Iowa earlier today, with hail reports between ping pong to golf ball
size at the largest. The upper level trough continues to track east
across the southern Canadian Province this afternoon, with an
associated surface low. The cold front paired with this system can
be seen quite well over the state based on current observations,
which currently places the front axis from Waterloo to Lamoni. Given
the cloud cover overhead, decided to bump temperatures down slightly
as heating will not be as significant as expected. The front will
continue to push across the state later this afternoon into the
evening, which will be the main focus in the short term. HREF
guidance as well as the HRRR runs agree on rather disorganized cells
forming off the cold front, as well as behind it with another
passing boundary quickly following it. Showers and storms are
expected to develop through the rest of the afternoon through the
early evening, looking to occur mainly across the central and
eastern parts of Iowa. Heating ahead of the front as flow remains
southeasterly will be favorable for this development, with values in
the low to mid 80s paired with dewpoints in the low 70s. RAP
sounding analysis ahead of the front suggests MUCAPE values around
2000J/kg with effective shear values over 30 knots, which would
allow for some possible strong storms at times with near severe hail
the main concern and possibly damaging winds. PWATs around 1.75
inches and warm cloud depths around 15 kft could also bring some
heavy rainfall at times, which looks to overall be limited in the
CWA for hydro concerns. Overall any remaining storms today have an
overall low threat for severe weather but cannot rule out a few
strong storms, though the better environment will be placed further
east along the IA/IL border into Illinois were SPC guidance has the
slight risk. Dry conditions then return west to east late tonight.
Winds will continue to shift northwesterly behind the cold front
into the evening and overnight, shifting northwest and breezy. This
change in northwesterly flow will usher in cooler and drier air over
the region overnight tonight into Sunday. Overnight lows are
expected to fall in the mid to upper 50s behind the front and in the
upper 50s to low 60s where the front will be departing east into the
early morning. Highs Sunday will be quite comfortable in the 70s
across the state, with mostly sunny skies and breezy with gusts
between 15 to 25 mph as mixing increases through the day. This
change in the pattern is thanks to a broad area of upper ridging in
the Pacific Northwest paired with a surface high sinking southeast
into the Central to Southern Great Plains. Dry and quiet will be the
main terms used to describe the weather for the first half of next
week across the state. Temperatures will slowly warm from Monday to
Wednesday, initially starting out in the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday
and into the mid 80s to 90s Tuesday and especially Wednesday as flow
return south/southwesterly to bring in the warmer and humid air.
There is some hinting of a small chance for some showers as a
boundary to the north clips the northeast portions of Iowa Tuesday
based on GFS and Euro guidance, though the NAM places the boundary
further north. Overall, most of the precipitation with any storm
potential will remain in Minnesota and Wisconsin, though a few
showers with some thunder cannot be ruled out over northeastern Iowa
Tuesday at this time. Otherwise quasi-zonal flow returns late
Wendesday into the remainder of the work week. Active weather
pattern is suggested per long term model guidance, especially Friday
into next weekend. Specific details are uncertain at this time on
timing and impacts but will likely come into focus in the next few
days. Temperatures will also remain on the warmer side, especially
on Thursday in the 90s before cooling down into the 80s into the end
of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
VFR cigs and vis will prevail through this TAF period. Winds
tomorrow will begin to pick up in the morning and will be gusty
out of the northwest throughout the day. Greatest wind gusts will
be across the northern portions of the state.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bury/Curtis
AVIATION...Small/Dodson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
452 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Update:
Scattered showers with isolated thunder and gusty winds continue
to track from north to south across NE Montana, supported from
instability associated with the upper low centered off to the
northeast. Several recent HRRR runs show showers continuing, if
gradually translating more east through the evening hours. Pops
were adjusted to reflect these trends and near term expectations,
but showers should gradually diminish this evening after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating.
Previous Discussion:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will
diminish by early evening as daytime heating diminishes. Northwest
winds will also decrease. Clear skies and light winds should allow
temperatures tonight to drop into the 40s most places.
An upper ridge building over the Pacific NW will move in over the
next several days allowing for subsidence, warming and mainly
clear skies.
The next weather system moves in from the Pacific NW Tuesday. This
will bring a slight chance of showers/tstorms from the southwest
during the evening. Any severe chances look to be over central
Montana.
Associated upper low then lifts into central Canada taking the
instability into the Dakotas, so should be a dry day for the area.
Beyond this period, cooler air moves in for Thursday but models
are very uncertain on if showers move in under a slight upper
trough. TFJ
&&
.AVIATION...
TIME: 2005Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
DISCUSSION: Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon will diminish by early evening. NW winds will also
diminish.
An upper ridge will introduce subsiding air. This will bring light
winds and mainly clear skies. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
850 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
With the latest HRRR guidance showing little to no precipitation
over the cwa for the tonight/overnight period, have brought pops
down from earlier forecast. Some moisture may try to work
north/east along an inverted trough that is currently stretching
from eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas.
This will be in tandem with a surface ridge to our north moving
further into the Plains overnight, allowing for a more southerly
gradient to feed into our southern zones on the east side of the
trough. For this, allowed slight chance pops for showers to
remain along/south of Highway 40 into Colorado. Areas north of
the could see some low level clouds that may allow for some
sprinkles, with no major impact.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
The cold front from this morning has made it through the CWA as
cooler air in the 70s to low 80s are overspread across the area with
widespread overcast skies. Monsoonal moisture in the 700mb level
continues to advect into the area allowing light showers to develop
along a Tribune to Hill City line; a few rumbles of thunder are
possible as some CAPE is present. These showers will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon and through the night. Some
guidance does indicate this axis of better lift moving further
north, however confidence is low at this time of this occurring
as a surface high from the Northern Plains moves in from the north
which will affect the northern extent of any precipitation. Low
temperatures tonight are forecasted to be below normal in the 50s.
Sunday, confidence has increased in cooler temperatures across the
area. Guidance is consistent with 850mb temperatures struggling to
even reach 15C by 00Z along with extensive and thick clouds
expected. For this forecast package went with a blend of the MEX/MET
guidance for the high temperatures as they appear to be handling the
potential for cooler temperatures the best. High temperatures are
currently forecasted to be in the low 60s across the SW portions
of the area to the mid 70s across the east. Those in the SW
portions of the area may set daily records for Lowest Max
temperatures. Showers and sprinkles will again persist for the
majority of the way before slowly moving out of the area to SSE.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to low
50s across the entire area.
Monday, a few lingering showers are possible during before noon
across southern portions of the area before exiting. NNW flow will
become dominant as a ridge develops across the western CONUS. NAM
and GFS indicates a subtle shortwave off the Rockies that may
lead to some formation of showers and storms off of the Front
Range. Current expectations is that storms will struggle once they
reach the western portions of the CWA as less CAPE will be
present from Highway 385 on east. However, if any storm is able to
sustain itself into the CWA forecast soundings indicate 35-40
knots of shear present which would support some storm
organization however with CAPE less than 1000 j/kg widespread
severe storms are not expected. The strongest storms would however
be capable of strong downburst winds as 1000+ j/kg of DCAPE will
be available. A wide range of temperatures will be present as the
rain affected portions of the southern CWA will be in the lower
70s, while northern areas will be in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Long range guidance suggests relatively little change to the
synoptic pattern in this period.. with ridging aloft over the
southern CONUS and the mid-latitude westerlies confined to higher
latitudes (>35-40N). With this in mind, expect near-or-above
normal temperatures. Precipitation (i.e. convection) chances on
any given day will highly depend upon the position/orientation and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies. Given that the Tri-State
area is progged to be situated on, or very near, the southern
periphery of the westerlies.. considerable uncertainty exists
w/regard to precip chances. At this time, predominately dry
conditions are anticipated. Climatologically, diurnal convection
is [relatively] more likely in northeast Colorado -- in closer
proximity to the Palmer Divide and Colorado Front Range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
High pressure traversing the Tri State area will bring VFR
conditions. Wind shift will be the main weather factor for both
terminals.
Winds for KGLD, northeast 10-15kts through 13z Sunday, then east-
southeast 5-10kts. By 20z, south around 10kts.
Winds for KMCK, northeast 10-20kts through 05z Sunday, the
backing to the northwest around 10kts. By 15z, back to the
northeast and eventually west-northwest 5-10kts by 20z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022
June 26th Lowest Maximum Temperatures Records:
Goodland KS... 66 degrees in 1928
Colby KS... 64 degrees in 2017
Burlington CO... 61 degrees in 1928
Tribune KS... 63 degrees in 1928
Yuma CO... 69 degrees in 2017
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
949 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Convection fired mainly across our far east and southeastern areas
this afternoon bringing some welcome rains to some folks. Rainfall
amounts of a quarter to a half inch fell across portions of east-
central KY with three quarters to just over an inch down in our Lake
Cumberland region (Clinton county). Highs on day were hot with
upper 80s to the low 90s over the Bluegrass region. The warmest air
was down in the Karst/Cave region of central Kentucky where
temperatures topped out in the mid-upper 90s. Convection has moved
out of the area, but we have plenty of mid-high level cloudiness
across the region. Temperatures as of mid-late evening were in the
mid-upper 70s over the Bluegrass region with upper 70s and lower 80s
in the I-65 corridor and points west. No significant weather is
expected through midnight and temperatures should continue to cool
into 70s late this evening, though the urban corridors may remain in
the low 80s until late in the overnight period.
For the overnight period, will be watching convection that continues
to develop along a cold front across northern and northwestern IL.
The last few HRRR runs have continued to suggest that this activity
will work southeast along and east of the I-55 corridor. This could
give portions of our southern IN counties a shot of some needed
rainfall late tonight. The earlier NAM solutions kept the majority
of this activity to our west overnight. However, the HRRR does have
support from the 00Z RAP model.
I do have some concerns about mid-high level convective cloud debris
that may impact our area during the morning hours on Sunday. This
could impact low-level lapse rates to an extent. However, with
temps warming into the upper 80s to near 90, we should be able to
generate some 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon. Overall
CAPE profiles remain on the low side given the relative meager mid-
level lapse rate profiles. Latest model runs continue to show very
anemic shear profiles. Therefore, convection will largely be driven
by cold pool organization and the overall convective profile
strongly favors pulse type convection with the main threat being
damaging winds in any stronger storms.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
==== Prior to 00z Today ===
Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are beginning to
fire up, and are expected to continue throughout this afternoon, as
highlighted by the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk. This area is within a
moisture convergence zone and threat-e ridge, and is located
underneath a weak 500mb vort wing that is attached to a vort max
located over Lake Michigan. Additionally, temperatures in the upper
80s and dewpoints in the low 70s have resulted in steep low level
lapse rates and MLCAPE pushing into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Very
weak shear will help keep storms somewhat unorganized and slow
moving, though large DCAPE values in excess of 1000 will pose a
decent threat for damaging wind gusts with a brief microburst in our
SE corner of the CWA. High PWATs also support brief downpours, but
given our recent dry conditions, flooding issues are not
anticipated. Most areas however should remain dry through this
afternoon.
=== 00z Sun to 00z Mon ===
Convection will diminish this evening as peak heating is lost.
Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next weather system, but
most of the night will be warm and humid, with temps only forecast
to drop into the low to mid 70s, accompanied with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and low 70s. Confidence for 06z tonight through tomorrow
is somewhat limited, primarily due to the evolution of storms
expected to develop along the cold front tonight across central IL.
A few CAMs suggest a small MCS will develop and track down the I-55
corridor along an instability gradient, while other CAMs suggest
this cluster will struggle to develop a cold pool and will weaken as
it tracks towards southern IN before sunrise tomorrow.
If the I-55 MCS develops, that will likely result in our southern IN
counties being split between today`s precip chances and tomorrow`s,
further continuing their dry spell. Coverage of storms could be much
less than expected due to the theta-e ridge setting up further east
of I-65. This also suggest that storms tomorrow will rely on outflow
boundaries of nearby storms to initiate renewed convection. If the
HRRR solution is correct, then better moisture pooling along the
front will trigger storms earlier and further west as convective
temps are met. This solution gives southern IN a chance of getting
some beneficial precip. Confidence remains limited due to the
varying solutions, and the 00z model suite should assist in gaining
confidence for tomorrow.
Lingering mid level clouds from the morning convective cluster could
impact low level lapse rates during peak heating tomorrow. However,
sfc temps are once again expected to reach the upper 80s and low
90s, resulting in SBCAPE ranging between 1000-2000 J/kg. With a lack
of winds in the atmospheric column, effective shear will continue to
remain virtually nonexistent. Due to the lack of shear, any
convection that gets going tomorrow afternoon could be dependent on
cold pools and pulse-like. Primary threat for storms tomorrow will
be damaging wind gusts.
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Sunday Night...
The cold frontal boundary will be slow to exit our SE Sunday night,
and showers and storms are expected to linger in that area Sunday
night. Pops will remain in the likely-categorical range east of I-65
Sunday night, with smaller chances west of the interstate. Look for
lows to drop into the low to mid 60s by Monday morning.
Monday - Thursday Night...
Canadian high pressure at the surface and unremarkable zonal flow
aloft take hold for much of the upcoming work week behind the
exiting cold front. Initially, this will bring dry a cool down to
the area with highs in the upper 70s on Monday, and low to mid 80s
on Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be quite pleasant in the upper
50s and low 60s. By Wednesday/Thursday, low to mid level heights and
thicknesses will increase, bringing a quick return of the summer
heat. Look for upper 80s to around 90 for highs on Wednedsay, and
low 90s for highs on Thursday. We`ll be dry during this stretch as
well, which makes our Sunday/Sunday night rain chances crucial to
keeping worsening drought potential in check.
Friday - Saturday...
Chances for showers and storms look to return for the late week into
the weekend as the upper ridge to our south fills in with diurnally
driven convection, and a frontal boundary impedes on our area from
the north. These two areas will gradually close the gap later
Friday, and into Saturday, so have increasing chances during that
time. Temps should drop off a couple degrees during this stretch
given increased cloud cover and greater precipitation chances. Upper
80s and low 90s are reasonable, with milder nights around the low to
mid 70s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022
IMPACTS:
- High cloudiness overnight
- Storms possible Sunday afternoon/eve
DISCUSSION:
Plenty of high level cloud cover across the region will lead BKN-OVC
conditions this evening though we should thin some of these clouds
out overnight. Will need to watch the west (KHNB) as diminishing
convection may clip our SW IN sections. The most recent NAM
solutions keep us dry so have continued that in the forecast.
Southwest winds will be seen during the day on Sunday with
convection firing off in the afternoon. For now, plan on carrying
PROB30s at KSDF/KLEX/KBWG.
CONFIDENCE:
Medium-high on all elements.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update.......MJ
Short Term...CJP
Long Term....BJS
Aviation.....MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
443 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
The main weather story will be a cold front that will cross our
region Sunday morning. The front could bring some localized
beneficial rainfall, but widespread significant rainfall is
unlikely. The front will be followed by a surge of cooler and much
drier air for Monday.
For tonight, thunderstorms will likely accompany the front across
Missouri and Illinois. A couple of the high-res models, namely the
12z arw, indicate an organized mcs will move south to Interstate
64 and the kfam area by midnight. These models indicate steady
weakening of the mcs after midnight as it continues southward.
Some potential for gusty winds exists near the I-64 corridor and
parts of se Missouri if the mcs does materialize. Lows ahead of
the front tonight will be in the mid 70s with light south winds.
On Sunday, the surface wind shift to northwest will occur in the
morning. The high-res models depict varying degrees of coverage
of precip on Sunday. The 12z arw and nam nest indicate nothing
more than isolated showers. The 12z hrrr and fav indicate
scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop along or
behind the front. The 12z href surface capes are generally less
than 1000 in advance of the frontal passage, limiting storm
intensity. The hrrr suggests convection will linger behind the
front, where showalter indices will be below zero along an 850 mb
trough. Temps will be dependent on cloud cover and precip
coverage, which the models do not agree on. The forecast highs
will be in the 80s, a little cooler than nbm mos.
Any lingering precip over western Kentucky will end early Sunday
evening, followed by partial clearing. The northwest low-level
flow will bring very dry air. Afternoon mixing will likely lower
dew points into the 40s locally on Monday afternoon. Given the
very dry column and strong early summer sun, highs will reach the
lower 80s despite relatively cool 850 mb temps. Lows Monday night
will fall into the 50s in the normally cooler low spots.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
We begin the long term period with unseasonably dry air in place and
end it with the possibility for some rain as we enter the 4th of July
weekend.
The upper pattern on Tuesday will feature an upper ridge across the
Desert Southwest and broad troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast
U.S. The ridge will expand eastward across the southern half of the
U.S. through Thursday. Meanwhile, shortwave energy will traverse
across the northern U.S. and be located across the Great Lakes by
the end of the week.
At the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will maintain an
unseasonably dry fetch of air into the Quad State Tuesday and
Wednesday. Forecast soundings show extremely dry air in the mid
levels, with 700mb dewpoint temperatures of -40C to -45C Tuesday
morning, which would be near record low values for the latter half
of June. While we won`t be mixing anywhere near that level, surface
dewpoints are still likely to lower into the 40s for many of us.
By Thursday, southerly flow at the surface will lead to an increase
in moisture with dewpoints surging back into the 60s. As this
occurs, isolated convection can`t be completely ruled out during the
afternoon. However, our primary rain chances look to hold off until
later Friday or Saturday as a frontal boundary sinks southward
towards the area.
High temperatures start off below normal in the mid 80s on Tuesday
before we warm up to near 90 for Wednesday. Even warmer values in
the 90s are expected Thursday into Friday. Lows will also nudge
upwards from the 50s Tuesday night to the lower 70s for the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 438 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
A cold front`s wind shift will occur late tonight-early tmrw. A
few showers or storms may precede its passage tonight, mainly at
KCGI or KMVN, where MVFR bases are possible with vicinity mention
of the thunder. With fropa, MVFR cigs are expected at all
terminals tmrw morning, and vicinity showers/storms cannot be
ruled out. Winds shift to northwest, then north, and become gusty
upward to 20 kts at times.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Key Messages:
1. Today`s heat will be replaced by much cooler weather for
Sunday and Monday with a cold frontal passage.
2. The cold front will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight, especially for areas along/north of I-44.
3. Dry weather is then expected for much of the rest of the week.
A weak front may bring some chances for rain by Friday and
Saturday.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Heat index values have hit the triple digits over the area this
afternoon with a heat advisory remaining in effect until 8 pm.
Relief is on the way with a strong shortwave now over the Dakotas
and upper Midwest supporting a strong cold front which has reached
IA-northwest MO-KS Flint Hills region. Upper level ridging is
still holding strong over the Mid South. Showers and storms are
expected to develop from eastern IA/IL southwest into MO along the
cold front, and a few of these storms might make it as far south
as central/south central MO before sunset or just after. Any
early activity farther south into southern MO will have to fight
the strong ridge aloft.
12z HREF ensemble guidance and subsequent HRRR runs show additional
and more widespread showers/storms are then expected, mainly
after midnight, as the front shifts south through the the cwfa.
Guidance actually has most of the late-night convection occurring
behind the front as low level (850mb) convergence increases
overnight. The late night convection looks elevated with a
marginal hail/wind risk expected (MUCAPE values on the order of
1000-2000 j/kg). Convection looks to weaken Sunday morning as the
low level convergence weakens.
Rainfall amounts are likely to be higher northwest of I-44. A few
pockets of heavier rain may occur with brief storm training from
west to east, but overall any rain will be welcome. With dry soil,
excessive runoff/flooding is unlikely.
Temperatures will be much cooler Sunday with some areas
struggling to reach 80F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Monday-Tuesday: Weak sfc high pressure will move in with cool
temperatures and dry weather. Temperatures look to be well below
normal.
Wednesday-Thursday: There is good general agreement in guidance
for this period. Warmer temperatures are expected as a broad 500mb
ridge shifts east into the area. Unfortunately, this will keep
the area dry as well.
Friday-Saturday: Ensemble guidance is in broad general agreement
in shifting a shortwave over the upper Midwest late in the week
with the tail end of a cold front trying to move south into
eastern KS/southern MO by Friday. This will open up the door with
a chance for storms, but there is not an overwhelming signal for
widespread rain at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
For the 00z TAFS, convection will continue to be very limited with
the upper level ridge of high pressure still over the area. A cold
front will move into the region late tonight with increasing
convective chances after midnight. Looking at VFR conditions
outside of any convection, but could see MVFR and brief IFR within
any convection. Winds will switch around to the north behind the
front.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
804 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 804 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
The front has just begun to enter the forecast area, having pushed
into the northwest corner of Osage County. Slow progress will
continue overnight, with the coolest and driest air lagging the
initial wind shift. A couple of weak storms have been able to
develop late this afternoon and early this evening along the front
itself, but the expectation is this potential will decrease
markedly once the sun sets. The HRRR has handled the frontal
convection quite well so far this evening. It appears increasingly
likely that most of the overnight will be dry, with the best
chances for any thunderstorms being with the ongoing activity
along the front and toward morning behind the front along the
Kansas border. The main updates to the going forecast involve the
POP and Wx forecast, with significant reductions to POPs through
10Z and more modest reductions into the low to mid chance range
from 10 to 12Z. The updated forecast will be sent soon, reflecting
the aforementioned changes and to drop today`s heat advisory.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
Expansive post frontal cloud cover along with scattered showers
and storms will keeps highs notably cooler Sunday compared to
recent days. High temperature changes of 15 to 25 degrees cooler
will be felt across NE OK through NW AR with the cooler temps not
completely felt across SE OK until Monday. Coverage of the post
frontal precip continues to vary amongst guidance however the
trend of generally light amounts is consistent providing little to
no relief from the recent dry conditions.
A few showers may continue into Monday otherwise below normal
temps will prevail through Tuesday w/ daily mean temps around 10
degrees below normal. Warm up begins Wednesday with temps
returning to near seasonal normals Thursday through next weekend
along with increasing humidity and resultant higher heat index
values. Ridging continues to be shown amplifying through the
western U.S. by late week with weak NW flow aloft over the local
region. A weak cold front may arrive by late next week resulting
in a slight increase in shower and storm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru at least the
first 6 hours of the TAF period. There`s a small chance of a storm
near some focusing boundaries at KBVO in the near term, but
chances aren`t high enough to warrant anything more than VCTS
mention. Time-height plots of model RH suggest a greater low cloud
potential across E OK behind a cold front than what numerical
guidance suggested. A tempo for MVFR cigs were added. Best
confidence in MVFR cigs will be across far NW AR behind front.
Shower and storm chances increase some behind front aft 12Z Sunday
morning across NE OK and far NW AR, with PROB30 used to cover
possibility.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 73 82 64 81 / 10 20 10 10
FSM 77 91 68 84 / 10 40 10 10
MLC 73 87 65 83 / 10 20 10 10
BVO 69 78 61 79 / 30 30 10 0
FYV 71 85 61 81 / 10 40 10 10
BYV 71 83 61 80 / 10 40 10 0
MKO 73 83 64 81 / 10 20 10 10
MIO 69 78 60 79 / 30 40 10 0
F10 72 83 63 81 / 10 20 10 10
HHW 73 95 69 85 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
229 PM MST Sat Jun 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will be present each afternoon across
southeast Arizona with plenty of moisture in place. Sunday and
Monday look to see a higher coverage of showers and storms which
will come back down closer to normal by mid- week. High
temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.
A couple of storms have begun to develop early this afternoon
south of Tucson near the international border as well as over
western Tohono O`odham Nation. These areas did not see the cloudy
skies this morning to slow down the morning heating and as a
result will see the highest instability and the best chances for
storms during the afternoon. Current RAP mesoanalysis has SBCAPE
values nearing 1500-2000 J/kg coinciding with PWAT values of
1.1"-1.4" in central and southern Pima County. Storms will have
the potential for strong outflows and localized flash flooding as
storm motion remains slow. The White Mtns will see high chances
for rain this afternoon but low chances for storms with limited
instability. Elsewhere, only isolated showers and storms are
expected today. Looking to tonight, scattered showers will
continue as a weak impulse transitions northward with highest
chances across Cochise County and east of the Arizona border.
Latest hi-res model runs are also picking up on a strong outflow
moving into southeast Arizona from the southeast overnight,
facilitating that shower development and maybe providing a focus
for storm initiation on Sunday. Sunday still looks to be a
relatively busy day with precip chances of 50-70 percent for much
of the area during the afternoon and evening. A further increase
in moisture is expected with PWAT values approaching 170-250
percent of normal for this time of year. Typical monsoon season
storm hazards are expected with strong winds, lightning, and
localized flash flooding. Storm motion looks to be around 5-10 mph
combined with the elevated moisture present will lead to a higher
flash flood concern than we have seen in the first 10 days of the
monsoon. The addition of an easterly wave pushing across Sonora
Sunday into Monday could allow for showers and storms to maintain
longer into the overnight hours.
Monday through Friday...The ridge which was offshore to our west
over the weekend will shift northeastward over southern Nevada on
Monday,continuing on a path over northern Arizona and into New
Mexico by the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Shower and storm
activity will come down slightly from Sunday/Monday for mid-week
with the additional subsidence provided by the ridge but still
plenty of moisture in place to kick off activity. The focus for
storms mid- week will be over the higher terrain. The weather set
up late next week could see in another uptick in storm activity
but too soon to tell.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00z.
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA with local mountain obscurations from
25/21z-26/01z at KOLS. Ceilings down to 7k-9k ft will be possible
with storms and heavier showers. Erratic wind gusts in excess of
40 kts possible with TSRA and outflows during the afternoon and
evening hours. Otherwise, variable SFC winds less than 15 kts.
Chances for SCT SHRA/TSRA will be present again after 26/20z
through the end of the period at KTUS and KOLS. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoonal moisture will remain in place over the next several days
keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers and storms
will be possible each afternoon across differing portions of
southeast Arizona each day, potentially lingering into the late
night hours some nights. Sunday and Monday look to have slightly
higher coverage of showers and storms which will come back down
closer to normal by mid- week. Any storms will carry the threats
of lightning, strong winds gusts, and localized flooding.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Guillet
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