Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
941 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Storms continue across much of the western half of the CWA, but
appear to beginning to lose strength as time goes on. No major
changes made to the forecast at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
The SPC has most of the CWA in an enhanced risk of severe storms.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening moving west to
east as a surface trough moves off the Rockies to combine with a
cold front. Confidence is low on exactly when and where storms will
form as high resolution models struggle with initiation timing.
However, the HRRR seems to be in line with current radar trends.
Bulk shear values are relatively unimpressive early at around 30kts,
but after the front moves through they ramp up to around 50kts.
MUCAPE values range from 3000 to 5000 J/kg in eastern counties which
is also the area of higher moisture. CIN values are between -50 and
-150 J/kg. This could hinder, but not prevent, convective formation.
However, this cap will continue to erode as the front moves east.
The focus will be western portions of the CWA where the cap is less
and the cold front intersecting with the surface trough from the
Rockies will provide lift. All threats are possible with these
storms.
Saturday is expected to be significantly cooler than the last few
days as a result of decreasing heights with the trough moving in.
Temperatures at 850 mb decrease from 22C to between 8 and 10C. These
temperatures will mix down to the surface as CAA generates some
gusts between 35 and 45 mph in central and western SD. Corson and
Dewey counties may need a Wind Advisory.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
The long term period will feature a state of flux in the upper-
levels, which will translate to a variety of weather conditions at
the surface. Initially, at 12z on Sunday, a strong, stacked
low/upper low pressure system will be across the southern Hudson Bay
in Canada. With strong high pressure simultaneously across the
Northern Rockies, a relatively tight pressure gradient will be in
place across the High Plains, leading to breezy northwest winds.
While the low shifts further east through the day, bringing stronger
winds aloft along with it, daytime heating and mixing should lead to
continued breezy conditions through the day, especially across the
eastern CWA. Sunday`s airmass will remain relatively cool and dry,
under the influence of that northerly flow, with high temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper
40s.
Northwest upper-level flow remains in place through Tuesday, but
southerly return-flow will have developed, leading to increased
warmth (especially across central SD) and a gradual increase in
humidity. Shortwave energy brings the best chance for precipitation
across North Dakota and northern Minnesota Monday night, but this
cannot be ruled out across the northeastern CWA as well. An upper-
level ridge builds in temporarily Tuesday night into Wednesday,
which would translate into the warmest day of the week with highs in
the 90s (though there is also more spread in potential outcomes
among the models on this day than any other - the majority of ECMWF
ensemble members position the upper-ridge further west - so
confidence is low on details). Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday evening and night, as shortwave energy quickly
flattens the ridge. Models are in better agreement then about
developing generally westerly flow aloft to end the week, with
slightly cooler temperatures and occasional additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms whenever forcing works through the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
A cold front crossing the region this evening will bring showers
and thunderstorms to all terminals. The thunderstorms will bring
MVFR and possible IFR conditions. Winds will become breezy from
the northwest behind the passage of the cold front.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...SD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
The early afternoon RAP analysis and water vapor loop revealed a
synoptic scale setup characterized by a broad, rather flat ridge
axis in the mid/upper troposphere centered across the Midwest. A low
amplitude trough was pushing east across the Northern/Central
Rockies, and water vapor imagery suggests at least a little bit of
North American Monsoon circulation advancing northeastward from New
Mew Mexico into central/eastern Colorado. The surface analysis
showed a weak surface low across west central Kansas with a plume of
hot air advancing northeast across southwest Kansas, where DDC, LBL
and surrounding stations were already at or slightly below 100F
prior to 18Z.
In the forecast for tonight, we will carry some Slight Chance POPs
across west central KS, east of the mentioned weak surface low as
well as some Slight Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas. Neither
region will likely see much in the way of organized thunderstorm
activity given the rather dry low levels in place with dewpoints
mainly in the mid to upper 50s up north...and upper 40s to lower 50s
in the southwest. Early Saturday morning, a strong cold front will
push south as the aforemtioned upper level trough moves out across
the Northern Plains. There will be anomalously chilly air behind
this front with 850mb temperatures as low as the +7 to +10C range
across western Nebraska early Saturday morning. The 850mb
temperatures will modify due to mixing later on in the day Saturday,
but the cold advection behind the front will nevertheless have an
impact in temperatures on Saturday. We will likely see midday or
early afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s before temperatures
plateau or only very slowly rise through early evening. The majority
of models suggest that some small component of the North American
Monsoon circulation with deeper moisture will push back southeast
into southwest Kansas, which may result in scattered
showers/thunderstorm in the afternoon poleward of the surface cold
front across southwest Kansas. There is a much better chance for
more organized strong/marginally severe convection along the front
itself, but by late afternoon the front will be positioned across
western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
Later Saturday evening and night, however, there will be a much
better chance for more organized showers and storms poleward of the
front from northeastern New Mexico into southwest
Kansas...particularly far southwest Kansas. The north-south position
of greatest 12-hr model QPF has shifted south just a little bit for
the 00-12Z Sunday period, so the highest Likely POPs will be
confined to areas now south of the Arkansas River (especially from
Elkhart to Liberal and points east-northeast toward Coldwater-Pratt-
Medicine Lodge. It is beginning to look more and more like areas
along/north of K-96 may not see much rainfall at all during this 12-
hour Saturday Night period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Western Kansas will be under the influence of a very cool, polar
surface high the beginning of this Long Term Period (Sunday and
Monday) with afternoon temperatures most likely remaining in the 60s
to lower 70s across much of the southwest Kansas region. The main
question in the forecast will be how much additional rainfall will
occur. It is a complicated forecast for precipitation, because the
best low level frontogenesis will be well to the south of Southwest
Kansas Sunday and Monday. Yet, the combination of a right-entrance
region of the polar jet in vicinity of southwest Kansas in tandem
with the continued, at least minor, infusion of the North American
Monsoon circulation and its deep tropospheric moisture, will support
organized shower and thunderstorm activity well north of the polar
front -- especially across far southwest Kansas closer to the
Raton/Black Mesa region.
Precipitation chances will really wane by Tuesday, though, as the
jet streak weakens and pulls away from the Central Plains with an
upper level ridge building across the Four Corners region. The
anomalously cool airmass will modify quickly Tuesday and Wednesday,
such that by Thursday, we will likely be right back to our typical
upper 90s/near 100 degrees for afternoon temperatures. We could be
entering another potential wet period end of next week toward the
following weekend (centered around 1-3 July time frame) as the
consensus among the global spectral models is that the summer
subtropical high will not be all that expansive and will likely be
oriented more east-west without much of an amplified ridge. This is
favorable for MCS activity across the Central Plains region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the next few
hours in the Hays area and north of Garden City. Elsewhere a
period of ceilings in the 7000 to 12000ft AGL are expected early
this evening. Gusty west to southwest winds will decrease after
sunset. This will be followed by an increase in winds to 40 to 45
knots near 2000ft AGL level early tonight across portions of
southwest Kansas. Also overnight a surface cold front will cross
southwest Kansas between 03z and 12z Saturday and as this surface
boundary passes the west to southwest winds will shift to the
north and increase into the 15 to 20 knot range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 88 60 71 / 10 20 60 30
GCK 69 85 58 71 / 10 20 50 30
EHA 68 86 58 66 / 20 30 70 60
LBL 69 89 59 70 / 20 20 70 40
HYS 71 84 60 74 / 10 20 30 20
P28 74 95 64 75 / 10 20 60 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
...Short Term and Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Some of our latest thoughts regarding thunderstorm/severe storm
trends:
- Thus far, strong capping (evidenced by 700 millibar temps in the
12-14C range) has held any "true" afternoon convection at bay
(other than a few showers/very weak storms earlier mainly east
of Hwy 281 in Nebraska). Even the attempts at high-based storms
barely south-southwest of our CWA (Hays KS area) have struggled
mightily).
- As fairly well captured by higher-res models (CAMS) such as 18Z
NAMNest/22Z HRRR, the main "action" at this time is still well
to our west over western NE up into SD along the greater low
level convergence along a north-south oriented surface trough.
- So, the million dollar question: what are WE in for tonight?
Well, to be perfectly honest and reiterate/build upon the
excellent previous afternoon discussion below...there are still
some question marks. Putting as much faith in the CAMS as we
dare, odds are fairly good that our entire CWA should largely
remain storm-free through around 10 PM.
- However, anytime beyond (roughly) 10 PM and lasting until
(roughly) 2-3 AM we begin a window of opportunity for POSSIBLE
severe storms, which if were to occur would primarily be a
function of storms to our west merging into at least a broken
(if not more solid) line, developing a decent cold pool and
charging eastward into our CWA. This would mainly foster a wind
threat, although any embedded supercell structure would perhaps
foster a large hail threat as well. It`s possible some more
isolated activity or a separate storm complex could try going up
ahead of anything moving in from the west, but given such warm
air aloft overhead and also the nose of the low level jet aiming
more into northeast NE versus our area, this possibility would
appear more favored over the OAX CWA.
- IN SUMMARY: It "appears" that strong capping will most likely
"save" us from any true isolated daylight severe storm threat,
but especially the 10PM-3AM time frame bears close watching for
a possible severe storm threat in our CWA. As mentioned in the
main discussion below however, nothing appears to be a "sure
thing" tonight and we`ll continue to closely monitor things as
they evolve.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Main forecast concerns are chances for strong/severe thunderstorms
within the next 12 hours.
Summary:
Tricky thunderstorm forecast in the short term has several
ingredients are in place for severe weather, but not all. This
results in a highly conditional and generally uncertain forecast
in the first 12 hours, or so. Generally speaking, an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm could develop from the Tri-Cities
north and east at any time this afternoon and evening...but the
"best" chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will probably
hold off until after sunset when a line of thunderstorms MAY move
in from the west. Even this scenario, however, is uncertain as a
layer of warm air aloft (capping) could prevent most thunderstorm
activity, or at least the really strong stuff. A cold front will
move through the area Saturday AM and bring us refreshing, breezy
NW winds, drier air, and cooler temperatures for the weekend.
Temperatures will steadily warm through next week, likely
culminating with at least near-triple digit heat in about a week.
Early indications are for cooler, but potentially active, pattern
for the 4th of July weekend.
Forecast Details:
Low confidence forecast through tonight due to mixed hi-res
guidance, somewhat messy sfc/mid level pattern, and warm mid level
temperatures amidst weak forcing. Starting off aloft...area
remains in "dirty" SW upper flow with obvious connection to a
monsoonal moisture plume. A weakening, positively tilted shortwave
trough stretches from W Dakotas SW to the Four Corners, with
another stronger trough nosing S into MT. Appears the primary
upper forcing will remain across the N Plains, but much like
yesterday, at least one or two weak perturbations are likely to
work through the area through tonight. These waves could be strong
enough to support convection as early as this aftn/eve...as we`re
currently seeing from Doniphan to York...but capping in the H8 to
H7 layer (as evident by 12-14C temps at H7 per latest SPC
mesoanalysis) may very well be strong enough to prevent sfc-based
activity altogether. However, IF a storm can breach the cap and
become sfc based, the aftn/eve environment would support strong-
severe convection with strong instability (MLCAPE 2-3K+ J/kg) and
modest shear (0-6km bulk shear 25-30kt, supported by significant
veering in lowest 3km) in place. Dew points in the low 70s amidst
backed low level flow could, in theory, also produce an iso
tornado. Again though, the eve tstm potential is VERY conditional
and more than likely not going to pan out.
Somewhat more likely, though still conditional and uncertain, is
that convection develops and organizes along sfc trough over W
Neb., then gradually shifts E this eve and overnight. The degree
to which this activity can make it into our CWA will likely depend
on cold pool development to our W this eve. IF a strong cold pool
develops, then this activity will likely have a significant
reservoir of strong MUCAPE to work with with temps in the 80s and
dew points in the 70s. This scenario would be similar to earlier
runs of HRRR and 12Z/18Z runs of NAMNest. However, if activity
fails to organize a strong cold pool, then diurnal cooling and
aforementioned warm mid level temps could prevent activity from
even making it into the area altogether...similar to recent runs
of the HRRR. So as mentioned above, run to run and model to model
consistency amongst the hi-res guidance is lacking and
contributing to low confidence. The main severe threat overnight
would probably be damaging wind gusts if a line does indeed form,
but large hail will also be possible, esp. with any convection
that remains more cellular.
The actual cold front will enter NW portions of the CWA around
sunrise and quickly progress SE through the morning. The primary
instability axis should set up S/SE of the area by Sat aftn, but
at least minor elevated instability may persist further N along
the elevated frontal slope that could support some iso to scat
weak convection roughly along and S of the NE/KS state line
through mid to late aftn. Severe weather is not expected on Sat in
our area. NW winds will be pretty brzy immediately along and
behind the front, with gusts 30-35 MPH possible for esp. south
central Nebraska. The brzy NW winds will usher much drier, more
comfortable air into the region, as well as cooler air. Highs on
Sat will range from near 80F north, to mid 80s S, but lows Sat
night will fall well into the 50s, for most, and perhaps even
upper 40s far N/W. Sun looks to be the coolest of this forecast
with highs only in the 70s, and lows Sun night again in the 50s.
Mild, dry conditions, light winds, and plentiful sunshine should
make Sun a very pleasant day for those looking for a break from
hot/humid, and even Mon will be fairly nice, though a bit warmer.
Temps become notably warmer on Tue with most areas returning to
the 90s, before even hotter temps in the upper 90s to low 100s
move in for Wed-Thu as upper ridging at least briefly amplifies
over the central/southern Rockies and Plains. Early indications
are that the ridge will break down and upper flow will turn zonal,
or even NWrly, atop a stalling front in the low-levels somewhere
over the Central Plains. Where exactly the front stalls out
remains uncertain, but there`s a chance it could be over or very
close to the forecast area, which would result in cooler and
fairly active conditions for the 4th of July holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 726 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
General overview:
A tricky TAF period with regard to several elements including:
thunderstorm potential (maybe severe?), timing of wind shifts and
also possible low ceilings. Overall though, the majority of the
period should prevail VFR ceiling/visibility and be precipitation-
free. Read on for more element-by-element details.
Thunderstorm potential:
Although we are drawing closer to POSSIBLE thunderstorms, there is
still some decent uncertainty in how things evolve. Do not have
the confidence for any TEMPO groups yet (let alone prevailing
thunder), but have confined a generic "vicinity thunderstorm"
(VCTS) mention to what appears to be the most favored 4-hour time
frames (04-08Z KEAR/06-10Z KGRI). IF storms roll in during this
time, they could be severe, with gusts around 50KT being the main
threat, along with brief heavy rain and a lesser threat of large
hail. Cannot rule out at least a few showers/weaker storms beyond
these most favored times, but the VCTS period should capture the
main time frame of concern.
Ceiling/visibility:
Although confidence is very high in VFR for these first several
hours this evening and also late in the period Saturday afternoon,
the early morning through late morning hours are a big question
mark, as at least a few sets of usually-reliable guidance are
strongly suggesting perhaps several hours of MVFR ceiling (with
brief IFR not out of the question). However, convection sometimes
has a way of "messing up" low cloud forecasts this time of year,
so opted against buying in to low ceilings wholesale just yet.
However, did introduce prevailing MVFR ceiling for anywhere from
3-7 hours on Saturday morning. Stay tuned for plenty of
adjustments here in later forecasts (possibly significant?).
Winds:
Compared to other TAF elements, this one carries higher confidence
(at least outside of thunderstorm influences). Not accounting for
any possible thunderstorm-enhanced outflow, these first several
hours will feature fairly fairly light breezes, gradually shifting
from east-southeasterly to north-northeasterly. Although passing
storms could subsequently result in a period of highly variable
direction/speed, a fairly strong cold front by summer standards
will push through around sunrise, solidly switching winds to
northerly through the entire latter half of the period (Saturday
daytime). Sustained speeds will commonly average up to around
20KT/gusts 25-30KT before speeds start to slacken late afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
631 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Greatly improving conditions this evening looking at sat and
observations has allowed the Grizzly Creek Watch to be taken down.
At the moment do not see any other issues as the more humid air
vacates to the East. Will adjust most pops down and update the
sky grids to reflect current conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Showers and thunderstorms developed this morning as the mid-level
trough discussed over the past several days began to track
eastward across Utah. Satellite and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated
the trough extended roughly along a KRWL to KCNY line 21Z. Storms
continued to fire along and ahead of the trough where mid-level
lift was maximized in the unstable airmass. As the previous shift
pointed out, decent shear (30 to 40 kts) and CAPE values in
excess of 1,000 J/kg suggest the potential for some organized
storms. The main threat from the strongest cells is strong outflow
wind gusts, though hail from 1/2 to 3/4 inches is also possible.
In addition, the burn scar at Grizzly Creek is susceptible to rain
rates of 0.60"/hour which have already been recorded with some
storms. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will continue for
Glenwood Canyon.
Models were in good agreement with the progression of the trough
and all indicated its axis will shift east of the Continental
Divide by 00Z/Sat. Subsidence, advection of drier air and the
stabilizing influence of diurnal cooling will bring an end to
moist convection by midnight with clearing spreading west to east
this evening. Precipitable water values decrease for Saturday
falling to near 0.50" on average across the area. Reduced moisture
across the region will lead to less widespread showers and
thunderstorms with activity expected to be contained along the
Continental Divide with the San Juan Mountains favored. Moist
convection ends for most locations Saturday in response to diurnal
cooling. However, nocturnal showers may continue over the
southern San Juan Mountains and the Durango to Pagosa Springs
corridor where moisture begins to deepen once again.
Overnight lows will hover near normal while highs on Saturday
climb by about 5 degrees for most locations in response to
increased sunshine.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Sunday is still looking like the most active day for the early week
period as a ridge builds in over the Great Basin and the high over
the Southern Plains drives a stream of moisture north into the Four
Corners region. PWAT values of 0.6 to 0.8 inches are on tap for the
day, plenty of juice to allow for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to form off the higher terrain. Those above normal
PWAT values also mean the threat of heavy rainfall remains.
By Monday, the high over the Great Basin begins to shift east in
response to a deep low off the Pacific Northwest. This drives a
drier northwesterly flow over eastern Utah and western Colorado,
cutting the tropical moisture plume at the southern border of Utah
and Colorado. That said, forecast PWAT values are right around
normal for this time of year, and there should be enough moisture
still pooled over the area for afternoon convection to trigger once
again that afternoon, though with less coverage compared to the day
before. Tuesday looks to be the "driest" day of the period, though
the word "dry" is maybe a bit misleading. The ridge axis will be
moving overhead, and forecast PWATs will be at or maybe even
slightly below average for the day, so convection will be at its
most limited of the period. Still expect some widely scattered
showers and storms to fire off the higher terrain through the
afternoon, however.
By Wednesday that low off the Pacific Northwest moves onshore along
the Canadian border. While the Four Corners won`t see any direct
effects from it, the influence of this area of low pressure extends
south along the West Coast and helps to nudge the Southern Plains
high further southeast. Under these conditions, the monsoonal
moisture tap turns on once more, with PWATs climbing back up to 150-
170% of normal by Wednesday night. With the increased moisture,
shower and storm coverage will once again be on the increase for
the end of the week. Long range models even hint that these
conditions will remain into the weekend. Temperatures are expected
to continue near normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Much of the thunderstorm activity is decreasing early this
evening and this trend should continue through sunset. The threat
of gusty outflow winds or lightning appears to be limited to the
KASE TAF early in the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions can be
expected through the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
826 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Around a 10 degree dewpoint gradient across the Tennessee Valley
this evening. Dewpoints are in the low 70s across northeast
Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee to the low 60s in portions
of northwest Alabama. There are a few light showers across
northeast Alabama with this deeper moisture but they have
diminished in coverage and intensity recently with the loss of
daytime heating. The latest HRRR indicates at least some chance
for a few isolated showers near the Alabama/Georgia state-line
during the overnight hours. The moisture decreases rather quickly
to the west with PW values below 1.5 inches forecast overnight to
the west of I-65. Overall, kept at least some mention of
precipitation in the forecast throughout the overnight hours
along the Alabama/Georgia state-line. Lows will be on the milder
side tonight with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
The upper level ridging that has prolonged the ongoing heat wave
will continue and intensify heading into this weekend with 500 mb
heights reaching 591+ dm. Persistent troughing off the East Coast
will gradually extend into portions of northeast AL. As a result,
high temperatures will see a gradient with only mid to upper 80s
in the northeast and peaking in the mid to upper 90s for
northwest Alabama this weekend. Onshore flow will cause dew points
to surge into the upper 60s to low 70s, creating a heat index
peaking near 100 degrees. A surface convergence axis along the
periphery of a surface high pressure system will progress from
east to west this weekend, almost as a pseudo-backdoor front.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase heading into
Saturday with 30-45% PoPs east of I-65.
The feature to note in the short term period is a shortwave
trough that will sweep through the Great Lakes region and push a
surface low and attendant cold front through the eastern CONUS
Sunday into Monday. This will increase shower and storm coverage
by Sunday afternoon and evening with numerous showers and storms
on Monday as the cold front pushes through the area. While ample
instability is not uncommon for this time of year, which would
lead to strong to severe pulse convection, high atmospheric
moisture content and the presence of the classic long-skinny CAPE
profile will introduce a heavy rainfall threat with potential
localized flooding. Otherwise, look for highs to only peak in the
low to mid 80s on Monday due to the ongoing convective activity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Our long term forecast begins Monday night as the cold front is
slowly pushing through the TN Valley with showers and storms
covering most of the area. Persistent ridging over the Gulf of
Mexico will cause the front to slow down and become the focus for
diurnal shower and storm development through the remainder of next
week. High temperatures increase from the mid to upper 80s on
Tuesday into the low 90s by late next week, which is a much more
typical pattern for the beginning of Summer.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle. A few
isolated showers/storms will be possible after 18z at HSV. For
now, confidence is too low to include a PROB30 in the TAF.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MA
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...MA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
900 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Update for severe threat tonight.
Numerous storms have developed within a very unstable environment
from northwest MN back into central SODAK. The portion of this
convection that looks to have the greatest severe potential is the
north end of the line segment approaching the Red Lakes. This has
developed just on the cool side of the mlCAPE gradient and we expect
this line segment to continue following this CAPE gradient toward
Duluth, this is where the greatest threat for severe weather will
exist tonight. Mesoanalysis also shows a pool of low 70 dewpoints in
place over central MN, basically where 6-12 inches of rain fell last
night. This pool of higher dewpoints in central MN is out ahead of
the line segment approaching Fargo at 9pm. This high degree of low
level moisture will likely help sustain a severe risk into central
MN, but we`re talking something like 11pm to 2am for the Alexandria
to St. Cloud region to have the severe threat. By this point in the
night, a decrease in both shear and instability will likely spell the
end of the significant severe threat, so although the remnants of
this line should make it into the Twin Cities metro around sunrise,
it will be on a downward trend and at this time, we do not anticipate
needing to extend the watch east, but will obviously monitor that
possibility through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible late this evening
through the early morning hours Saturday.
- Additional rainfall over the areas hammered with 6-12 inches last
night could result in more flash flooding.
It`s a tranquil and warm afternoon with fair wx CU, making for a
typical summer day. Temperatures have risen to the mid 80s to lower
90s and dew points are creeping up into the upper 60s. A cold front
stretches from northeast ND to western SD and will continue eastward
tonight. Severe thunderstorms are developing along the front over ND
this afternoon in a very unstable environment. As the evening
progresses, these storms will encounter a more stable airmass with
poor lapse rates and should weaken across western and central MN.
Severe storms are still possible in those areas, but they shouldn`t
be as numerous as farther northwest. Nonetheless, widespread showers
and thunderstorms will advance across central MN overnight. Very
heavy rainfall from last night (6 to 12 inches in parts of Morrison,
Stearns, and Benton counties) has left the area flooded or saturated.
While we aren`t expecting extreme rain totals tonight, any additional
rainfall could lead to more flooding. Thus, a Flood Watch has been
issued for those locations.
Another area of convection is expected to develop over SD or NE
later this afternoon near a secondary low pressure center. This low
will develop a strong LLJ from the central Plains to IA this evening,
increasing moisture transport into MN. This should maintain or
strengthen the complex as it tracks eastward into MN overnight.
Locally heavy rain will be a concern, but it`s expected to track
across an area that is abnormally dry and has missed the bulk of
precipitation from the past several events. The two areas of
convection will merge late tonight across eastern MN and then exit to
the east toward eastern WI Saturday morning.
Cooler and drier air will follow Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler/drier conditions Sunday to Monday.
- Return of warmer temperatures and moisture by mid-week.
- Showers/Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Thursday.
Sunday and Monday
The remainder of the weekend appears to briefly cool down as well as
dry out. An upper level trough axis will be advancing from west to
east across the region with surface high pressure building in from
our neighbors to the south. Given the higher pressure aloft will
allow for little to no cloud cover except for the patchy
stratocumulus fields that you`d typically see on a given summer
afternoon. The location of the passing upper level trough, will
generate winds to be northeasterly through this period and could
become breezy throughout the day Sunday. A shift in the wind
direction to Southwesterly will occur Monday night. Temperatures are
expected to be below normal on Sunday in the mid-70`s and then
reaching the low-80`s Monday. Low`s expected to be in the low to mid-
50`s and slight warmer near 60 in the Twin Cities.
Tuesday - Friday
As the aforementioned trough fills and departs to our east,
the surface high pressure will begin to erode and will allow for a
shortwave to advance over our region. Winds will be southwesterly
which will allow for some vorticity advection to generate some
chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning for our western
counties and then by Tuesday afternoon/evening for our eastern
counties. A widespread washout is not anticipated. This shortwave
will quickly exit Tuesday night into Wednesday which will briefly
build back in high pressure, clear up the skies, and temperatures
into the low to mid 80`s for most areas and upper 80`s for Southern
MN. On Thursday, our next batch of PoP chances returns as another
advancing shortwave moves overhead to our north. Flow will become
zonal which will advect a larger batch of positive vorticity and
moisture and we should see a greater chance of showers/thunderstorms
this day as compared to Tuesday but again a washout is not expected.
Friday, skies will clear and under mostly sunny conditions and
temperatures near normal for the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022
It`s a rather complex forecast for late tonight through Saturday
morning, with three bits of forcing all converging on southern MN.
First, we have the developing MCS up north of Fargo that will track
toward central MN tonight. Second, will be convection forced on the
strengthening LLJ over Iowa tonight that will move toward southeast
MN. Third is the cold front itself, which looks to move into AXN
around 12z, MSP close to noon, and not until near 22z at EAU. Given
all of that, we haven`t seen too much with latest guidance to
significantly change what we had going in the 18z TAFs, with the main
change to delay the arrival of TS by an hour or two at most
locations. Biggest concern given the timing for the FROPA is we could
have activity linger longer than currently indicated, which the HRRR
at least kind of hints at with its scattered forecast reflectivity
along the front. Although not a typical time of year for seeing
stratus, there is robust model agreement in IFR to low end MVFR cigs
moving in with the convection tonight, so confidence is high we`ll
see these sorts of reduced cigs, but less confidence on how long they
will last.
KMSP...MSP is in a tricky spot here as the convection on the LLJ
coming out of Iowa looks to stay southeast of MSP. This means we`ll
be waiting to see how, or even if we are impacted by a line of storms
that will be completely outflow dominate by the time they get this
far southeast. Behind the morning convection, the HRRR has been
trending a bit more aggressive with activity along the cold front
itself, so we`ll have to keep an eye out on the potential for another
round of shra/tsra between 16z and 18z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind WSW at 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW bcmg NW 10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT Saturday for Benton-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille
Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-Todd.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...RMD
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
437 PM MST Fri Jun 24 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will hang around with an even more favorable monsoon
pattern setting up Sunday into next week. Today and tomorrow, winds
and blowing dust will be the main weather risks, especially along I-
8 and I-10 in Maricopa, Pinal, and Yuma counties. Sunday and Monday,
the flooding potential increases across the lower deserts as more
moisture from soon to be Hurricane Celia advances towards the
region. Low to moderate HeatRisk remains in place through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
This morning, the 12Z sounding at Phoenix and Yuma, showed 1.37
inches and 1.23 inches of precipitable water respectively. This is a
lot of moisture for this time of year with both of these values
exceeding the daily maximum according to sounding climatology. The
synoptic pattern remains nearly the same today, with slightly more
westerly flow. An unstable atmosphere will be in place again today
with mesoanalysis depicting MLCape values rising into the 500-1000
J/kg range across much of Maricopa, Pinal, and La Paz counties this
afternoon. In these areas, DCape values will also be extremely high,
in the 1800-2000 J/kg range.
Convection will continue to develop across northern and eastern
Arizona this afternoon, including southern Gila County, and be a
little delayed across southern AZ (compared to yesterday). There is
also a chance for lower desert storms, with a ~25% chance in the
Wickenburg area, ~20% chance across the Phoenix and Casa Grande
area, and <10% chance in Parker and Quartzite areas. Strong
downburst/outflow winds and blowing dust will be the biggest risks
today, especially along I-8 and I-10 in Maricopa and Pinal counties.
The HREF probability of wind speeds exceeding 35 mph today is
greater than 70% in southern Gila county, 50-70% in Maricopa and
Pinal counties and 30-50% in La Paz county. Most areas will likely
see less than a quarter inch of rain with storms. However, with
plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to tap into, some cells may
produce upwards of 0.5-1.0 inch of rain.
Tomorrow, the area of focus shifts westward into western Pima,
southern Maricopa, and Yuma counties, as this is where the best
instability will be. The probability of greater than 35 mph wind
speeds in this area is greater than 50%. HRRR 80m wind is also
showing a decent outflow boundary developing and traveling northwest
and potentially moving through southeast California. Strong
downburst/outflow winds and blowing dust will be the biggest risks
tomorrow in these areas, especially along I-8 in Yuma, Maricopa, and
Pinal counties.
We are still expecting a more favorable monsoon pattern to set up
Sunday and last much of next week. It also appears that Sunday into
Tuesday, we will see an increase in moisture from the tropics,
thanks to soon to be Hurricane Celia. Thunderstorm chances in the
Phoenix area rise to 25% each day Sunday into next week. Heavy rain,
strong winds, and blowing dust will be the main risks each day.
Moderate HeatRisk will remain in place for the lower deserts of our
CWA through at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2337Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Gusty outflow winds and abrupt wind shifts from distant
thunderstorms will be the greatest weather issues through Saturday
evening under periods of mid/high cloud decks. Current 88-D radar
imagery is showing storms developing over the higher terrain north
of Phoenix and over SW Maricopa/Western Pima Counties. Current
thinking is that outflows from the storms to the north will impact
the Phx area terminals by early/mid-evening, then more typical
easterly drainage winds return late this evening/overnight. However,
confidence on this outcome is only moderate, an alternate scenario
is that overflows from the storms to the south become dominant, with
the outflows from the north washing out before they reach KPHX/KIWA.
Confidence remains much lower (less than 20%) that thunderstorms
actually directly affect any terminal, and have not included any
mention in this TAF package. As far as Saturday is concerned, after
continuing easterlies in the morning, the typical westerly switch is
expected to occur around midday/early afternoon, with a possible
switch back to easterly by mid-evening as outflows from distant
storms once again move into the Phx area.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Little to no weather concerns will exist through Saturday afternoon
under clear skies. Current southwesterly winds to become south-
southeasterly late night/early Sat morning. A few gusts up to 20kt
may be possible before decoupling overnight, and perhaps becoming
light and variable Saturday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will remain entrenched across the desert southwest through
next week. There will be daily opportunities for afternoon and early
evening shower and thunderstorm activity, especially across Arizona
and high terrain locations. With the increased moisture, MinRH
values will remain above 15% across most areas through tomorrow and
above 20% Sunday into all of next week. Great overnight recoveries.
Apart from frequent late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm
downburst and/or outflow winds, no other significant winds are
expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Feldkircher
AVIATION...Percha/18
FIRE WEATHER...Feldkircher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Key Messages:
1) Convection pushing out into the eastern plains could lead to
gusty outflow winds this afternoon and this evening.
2) Cold frontal passage early tomorrow morning will mark the start
of a much wetter and cooler pattern for southern Colorado.
3) Flash Flooding risk increases throughout the day on Saturday.
Currently.. As of 2:30pm local time, thunderstorms have developed
over the La Garitas and the Central Mountains over the past few
hours, and are starting to push northeastward into the foothills.
The Air Force Academy is already seeing some light showers but
lightning is still confined to the higher elevations at this time.
The main threat with storms pushing into the I-25 corridor over
the next few hours will be erratic outflow winds gusting up to 40
mph.
Tonight.. Storms are not expected to be severe this afternoon, but
DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/Kg could lead to some 40-50 mph outflow
winds on our eastern plains, especially in Kiowa, Bent and Prowers
counties. These stronger storms look to push into Kansas by around
00-02Z this evening. Convection is expected to die off quickly after
sunset in the mountains, but some weakening storms could linger
until 04 or 05Z out on our plains.
A cold front will push southward through Colorado late tonight, and
pass through the northern extent of our forecast area (Teller and El
Paso counties) any time after 3am Saturday morning. Temperatures
will cool and dew point temperatures will rise behind this frontal
boundary. Eventually upslope flow behind this front will bring about
rain showers for late Saturday morning.
Tomorrow.. Precip chances will lag behind the front for several
hours, with the NAM nest not really hinting at showers or
thunderstorms until after around 11am. Showers are expected to start
in the San Juans and La Garitas, and spread from generally southwest
to east-northeast into the San Luis Valley, the Central Mountains,
and eventually into the Palmer Divide by around 6pm on Saturday
evening. Both the HRRR and the NAM nest are showing strong signals
that locally heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow afternoon,
especially along the Palmer Divide and the southern Sangres. The
potential for flash flooding will increase throughout the evening,
especially for burn scars in the Sangres.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Key messages:
1) Drastically cooler weekend with unsettled weather and a good
amount of precipitation for much of southeast Colorado through
Monday. Flash flooding will be possible Saturday night.
2) PM thunderstorms are going to be possible over the mountains and
adjacent plains/I-25 corridor on Tuesday. Slight chance over central
and eastern plains.
3) Better chance of widely scattered PM thunderstorms over most
areas from Wednesday through Friday.
4) Temperatures are going to continue to gradually warm throughout
the early part of week and back to the seasonal average by
Wednesday.
Detailed discussion:
Saturday night through Monday...
As the mid level major shortwave continues to move over the region,
there is going to be and increase in lower level moisture advected
within the cold pool behind the front. This will allow for a
considerable amount of omega forcing along with favorable tall and
skinny CAPE profiles over the eastern mountains with values of
nearly 1200 J/kg. The combination of these meteorological elements
will result in a fair amount of thunderstorm development and brief
periods of heavy rain possible. Due to this, the potential of flash
flooding will exist late Saturday evening through early Sunday
morning, especially over the burn scar areas. With that being said,
the clustering of the QPF is still spatially spread out and
therefore confidence is lower for burn scar areas to be directly
impacted. There is also a slight chance that fast rainfall
accumulation rates could impact the urban areas of Pueblo and
Colorado Springs. COS shows tall and skinny CAPE soundings in the
morning, alluding to potential urban flooding rain within the
downtown area. This is primarily due to the enhancement of lower
level moisture along the I-25 corridor with some upsloping taking
place by later in the night as winds continue to shift to being from
a more easterly direction. The thunderstorms are going to transition
more to a moderate and periodically heavier steady rain over much of
the plains during the early morning on Sunday as isentropic accent
increases over much of the area east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Snow levels will also drop down to around 12,000 feet, so
there could be rapid snow accumulations of several inches per hour
on the highest peaks, with the Pikes Peak region looking to be the
most favorable location to be impacted by this, based off the most
recent model guidance.
CAMs continue to show higher CAPE values to be confined to the
mountains during the afternoon on Sunday, while remaining more
stable over the plains with continued cooler air advection. This
will keep a continuance of light to moderate rain over the plains,
which will shift further south along the southern plains and Raton
Mesa area. Over the mountains, destabilization and orographic
lifting will allow for more development of convection by later in
the afternoon. Low and mid level moisture content will be high, and
therefore heavy rainfall rates could be possible again. Therefore,
burn scars will need to be closely monitored again for the
possibility of flash flooding. The San Juan Mountains could also
receive copious amounts of rainfall in a short period of time as
well. Much cooler air advection will keep temperatures much cooler
and well below the seasonal average for this time of year, in fact,
some locations over the plains could see record low maximum
temperatures on Sunday. For instance, the record low max temp for
Colorado Springs is 59 (set back in 2000) with a forecast high of
58, and the record max low temp for Pueblo is 64 (set back in 1937)
with a forecast high of 64.
On Monday, there is still going to be a fair amount of residual
moisture in the mid levels to allow for more convection to develop,
mainly over the mountains during the afternoon and then move out
over the plains during the evening hours. The NAM 12 is showing
areas of higher CAPE over the Palmer Divide area of nearly 2000
J/kg, indicating that this will be likely location for potentially
stronger thunderstorms. There will also still be cooler air
advection moving in out of the southeast over the plains with the
troughing in place downstream to keep the plains relatively cool and
below the seasonal average by anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees.
Tuesday through Wednesday...
The deterministic models are in general agreement that the moisture
plume will shift back towards the west a little more as ridging
subsequently builds back in over the region. Mid level flow will be
more southerly so thunderstorm activity will primarily be confined
to the mountainous regions with only some storms moving off over
the adjacent plains and along the I-25 corridor later in the
afternoon. On Wednesday, as troughing upstream begins to allow for
the mid and upper level winds to become more southwesterly, the
monsoonal moisture plume will remain in place and PM storms will
have a better chance of moving off the mountains and over the
plains. The ECMWF does tend to keep the plains drier than the GFS,
but ensembles reflect areas of QPF over even the eastern plains. A
gradual warming trend will occur due to the ridging, especially over
the plains, with max temperatures returning to around the seasonal
average by Wednesday.
Thursday through Friday...
Ensembles and deterministic models alike are in general consensus
that the longwave trough upstream over the NW CONUS is going to
continue to propagate to the east and north of the region. This will
allow for the monsoonal moisture plume to get shifted back to the
east again and also help to reinforce available moisture content and
destabilize the mid levels, allowing for an uptick in thunderstorm
development later in the afternoon and evening over most areas for
both days. This troughing will also help to slowly bring back down
max temperatures to slightly below the seasonal average over most
areas by Friday. -Stewey
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals for the next 24
hours. A cold front pushing through late tonight/early tomorrow
morning will bring lowered ceilings and precipitation towards the
beginning of the next TAF period.
At KCOS.. Thunderstorm activity is within the vicinity of KCOS and
is expected to move on station imminently. Spotty storms are
continuing to redevelop southwest of station and will likely
continue to keep tracking towards the terminals over the next few
hours. The main threat with these storms will be erratic outflow
winds gusting at 30-40kt.
At KPUB.. Showers and weak thunderstorms are not expected to move on
station this afternoon, but could be within the vicinity anytime
between 22-01Z, especially north and west of station. The main
threat with these storms will be erratic outflow winds that could
gust up to 30kt.
At KALS.. Showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to remain
along higher terrain this afternoon. Confidence in lightning
occuring on station or within 10nm of the terminal is low at this
point, but gusty outflow winds up to 40kt will be possible this
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR/SKELLY
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...EHR/SKELLY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1151 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated shower and storm activity will persist over
northwestern Arizona through the weekend as the region taps into
some early-season monsoonal moisture. Otherwise, temperatures will
hover a few degrees above seasonal averages, with general afternoon
breeziness expected through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday.
Another round of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity expected
this afternoon, but will be restricted to the southern Sierra Nevada
crest as well as Mohave County in Arizona. CAPE values in these
areas will range from 500 to 700 J/kg this afternoon. Greatest
anticipated impacts will be in Mohave County, where forecast HRRR
inverted-V soundings show over 1200 J/kg of DCAPE with around 0.75"
of PWAT. At least initially, rain that falls will struggle to reach
the ground, due to evaporation through the dry low levels. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern. As showers persist and
the column moistens, the potential for small hail will arise, with
about 700 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, though severe hail is unlikely.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, Saturday`s convection looks
to be very similar in nature to today`s as far as intensity, areal
coverage, and location, though there is an increased chance of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in the panhandle of Lincoln County
with modest CAPE values.
Sunday, ridging builds over the area from the southeast Pacific,
pushing convection opportunities further east. Though chances of
isolated showers and thunderstorms persist for Mohave County through
the early part of next week, chances will remain on the eastern
fringes of the county, if initiating in Mohave at all. Meanwhile,
temperatures will increase to a few degrees above seasonal averages
across the Mojave and southern Great Basin deserts with general
afternoon breeziness returning each day. "Moderate" HeatRisk
expected below 5000 feet in elevation through midweek, meaning an
increased risk of heat-related illness.
Of note, Tropical Storm Celia persists in the southeastern Pacific
Ocean, anticipated to develop into a hurricane early Saturday
morning. Details will become more clear as we progress through the
weekend, but depending on the exact track that Celia takes, coupled
with the high pressure placement/eastward progression over the Four
Corners, there may be enough of a moisture flux to increase PoPs
over our forecast area mid-week. Though the NBM is not currently
sold, the ECMWF ensemble means favor measurable precipitation across
portions of southern San Bernardino County and up the Colorado River
Valley, with PWATs between 1.00 and 1.50 inches. Stay tuned!
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Fire concerns remain concentrated to Mohave County
as well as the southern Sierra today. In the Sierra, the primary
hazard will be dry lightning strikes. Though gusty winds are
possible from area thunderstorms, afternoon RH values will range
from 30 to 40 percent, helping to mitigate fire concerns. Across
Mohave County, dry lightning as well as afternoon RH values in the
single-digits on the western side of the county - increasing to
lower 20s on the eastern fringes - will be present alongside gusty
outflow winds from storms that develop. Storm potential greatly
diminishes with sunset.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south to southwest winds are
expected this afternoon, with gusts 20-25KT expected. Winds will
dissipate after sunset, with typical overnight wind trends expected
tonight. Diurnal winds trends are likely for Saturday with wind
speeds of 8KT or less. Occasional afternoon clouds around 12kft are
possible, otherwise skies will be clear through the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated convection is possible in western Arizona this
afternoon as well as along the Sierra ridgeline. Any thunderstorms
could contain lightning and sudden gusty winds. Elsewhere, it will
be dry today. Expected breezy south to southwest winds with gusts 20-
25KT this afternoon.
Any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will dissipate this
evening. Mostly clear skies and typical wind trends return for
tonight and Saturday morning across the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Varian
AVIATION...Nickerson
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