Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/24/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1050 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The upper level ridge to our west will continue to keep us under northerly flow aloft and help push a weak front through the area, with some associated showers and storms. We cool off a bit heading into the weekend with highs remaining the low- mid 90`s but still with a chance of showers. A stronger front will stall over the area next week and deliver cooler and wet weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Scattered afternoon convection continues to push southward through the forecast area, driven by weak shortwave energy rotating around the east side of the upper ridge. Expect these scattered storms to continue to dive southeastward through the evening hours before shifting to the Coastal Plain and weakening by midnight. Skies should begin to clear from the north in the wake of the convection allowing for a few hours of radiational cooling before some lower clouds develop during the predawn hours. Overnight lows are expected to be near to slightly above normal in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The offshore low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will finally pull northeast by Friday and help the ridging along the southern US to relax slightly. However, the persistent upper level ridge over the MS Valley will still keep the reinforcing northerly flow in place. Hi-res and global guidance suggest a few weak shortwaves will ride around the ridge axis and help trigger some showers or storms Friday afternoon. Easterly low level flow should force a convergence region across western SC and eastern GA, which is also where mid-upper level drying will not inhibit initiation as much. So PoPs remain highest across the CSRA. High temps will reach into the low, possibly mid, 90`s for most of the area. Some lingering clouds will keep Friday night lows around 70 for the majority of the area. There will be little change in the pattern for Saturday as the upper level ridging and northerly flow aloft will still continue. Dry mid-upper level air, combined with a lack of strong forcing, will prevent widespread showers and the focal point for any isolated showers will be near the best moisture pooling. With the easterly low level flow, the most favorable spot for initiation will again be in the CSRA. So PoPs are below 15% in the eastern forecast area, and around 30% across the west. High temps again will top out in the low 90`s with overnight lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not much change for Sunday and Monday as the upper level ridging will continue to persist with a northerly component flow to the mid-upper levels. PWATs will fall below 1 inch by Sunday morning and likely remain there for much of Monday, with good agreement across the GEFS-NAEFS output. Easterly level flow will possibly help pop and isolated shower either day, but chances remain very low. With the continuing drop in moisture, strong solar heating should warm us back into the mid 90`s for the majority of the area. A cold front is well progged across the blend and ensemble data to near the area by late Monday and into Tuesday. Moisture pooling ahead of the front will quickly surge PWATs up to near 2 inches by Tuesday before the front stalls across the area. Exactly how long the front remains draped across the area is still uncertain, but confidence is moderate that it will linger through at least late Wednesday. Temps will run slightly below to about average, with a good chance for showers and storms both days. Further disagreements arise late next week following a short wave passage to our north. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 0245z update...Main near term concern is TSRA activity near OGB moving south and is expected to remain east of AGS. Will expect the activity to shift out of our FA by 05z or so. Focus will then shift to any fog/stratus potential for later tonight. Given rainfall and associated cooling at CAE/CUB/OGB, and satellite indications of convective debris cloudiness clearing later, plus winds expected to become light, some fog is possible. For now, will indicate MVFR VSBY potential. Other concern is area of MVFR CIGs to our NE over E NC moving west. Latest HRRR keeps those CIGs to our north, and latest SREF brings it close to CAE/CUB. Will indicate SCT MVFR CIGs at CAE/CUB/OGB for now and let later shift reevaluate based on trends. On Friday, drier air will enter eastern areas, while a surface boundary sets up near the CSRA. This will allow for scattered diurnal convection to favor AGS/DNL Friday. For now, will indicate VCTS at those locations. EXTENDED AVIATION...Drier air will provide only a slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms Saturday, with no activity expected Sunday. A frontal boundary and increased moisture will provide an increased chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The mid-afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a broad anticyclonically curved middle-upper tropospheric flow pattern across much of the central CONUS. The center of a 592-dam 500mb high was located across the Red River valley region. The 19Z surface analysis showed southwest momentum across much of west central and southwest Kansas with temperatures from 95 to 100F. The southwest flow was aiding in enhanced convergence in a couple of areas, one along the I-70 corridor from roughly Wakeeney east to Russel and another area farther south across portions of south central Kansas where dewpoints of lower 70s were still being observed at PTT and P28. The various CAMs, including the HRRR, were really targeting the I-70 corridor for the most aggressive surface-based thunderstorm activity in vicinity of the northern, more pronounced zone of boundary layer convergence. Other storms will likely become fairly aggressive farther south down the convergence zone into central and south central Kansas, but this region will be a bit more displaced from better vertical wind shear profile up to 6km AGL. Severe thunderstorm risk will wane after 00Z as the threat area shifts east deeper into central/northern Kansas. The rest of tonight will be rather breezy out of the south which will keep temperatures up in the upper 70s to lower 80s through much of the night. Friday afternoon still looks really hot. All the latest models continue to show afternoon temps in the 103 to 106F range across much of west central, southwest, and south central Kansas, and the synoptic setup certainly supports it, as the greatest downslope plume of hot air typically precedes a strong High Plains cold front. The afternoon relative humidity will be very low, even in the eastern counties, which would result in heat indices at least a degree or two lower than the actual air temperature, so a Heat Advisory will not be considered on this forecast update, despite the widespread 104-105F actual air temperature forecast. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The much-advertised strong cold front early this weekend will mark the beginning of a very welcomed cool/wet period across much of the Central High Plains. The front is likely to clear the entire DDC CWA (including Barber County) by early afternoon. The cold advection behind the front will be modest, and will stunt the diurnal rise across much of the southwest Kansas region in the afternoon. Most areas should still see afternoon temperatures top out from 90 to 95 degrees (close to 100 in southern Barber County). Saturday Night through Sunday look wet. The surface front will slow down with post-frontal upslope east/northeasterly winds interacting with the higher terrain of northern/northeastern New Mexico and adjacent southern Colorado, in the face of a modest North American Monsoon circulation which will continue to be fairly well- established. The ingredients are coming together for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with numerous thunderstorms from northeastern New Mexico northeast across western Kansas late Saturday Evening through early Sunday (especially west of a Garden City to Liberal line to the Colorado border). Western Kansas will remain in this loosely coupled-jet structure through Monday, which would support continued shower and thunderstorm activity (mainly showers or even stratiform rain given the depleted lower-mid tropospheric instability). Temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be stuck in the 60s to lower 70s across much of west central and southwest Kansas given all the cloud cover and precipitation around the region amidst the already chilly (for this time of year) lower tropospheric airmass (850mb temps of +10 to +13C most of the time during this Sunday-Monday period). As the north central CONUS upper level trough/jet streak pulls away from the Great Plains beginning Monday Night/Tuesday, the precipitation chances will go down, and we will begin a modification of the airmass. Tuesday will most likely be a transition day from the anomalously cool pattern to something more typical of late June, so we are looking at widespread lower to mid 80s for highs on Tuesday. Thursday of next week would most likely be the first day back to 100 or at least flirting with the triple digit value again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Thunderstorms will be possible in the Hays area over the next few hours. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong damaging winds, isolated large hail and periods of heavy rainfall. After 02z Friday the best chances for thunderstorms will be located north and east of Hays. BUFR soundings and observation indicating ceilings in the 8000 to 15000ft AGL can be expected overnight across southwest Kansas as a south southeast wind at around 15 knots continues. BUFR soundings do indicated a low level jet developing after 06z Friday with wind speeds of 40 to 50 knots being possible near the 2000ft AGL level until daybreak Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 74 105 70 93 / 10 0 10 20 GCK 71 103 67 90 / 20 0 10 10 EHA 68 101 66 89 / 10 10 10 30 LBL 71 104 69 93 / 10 0 10 20 HYS 71 105 70 90 / 20 10 20 10 P28 74 104 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Mostly Sunny skies continue this afternoon across South Central Texas with highs already reaching the Century mark by 2pm in some spots. Where yesterday had a fairly extensive cumulus field, today skies for most areas are mostly clear, with the exception being across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country where cumulus clouds continue to grow. While moisture is decreasing in parts of the area - with dew points dropping from the mid to low 60s this morning to low 60s and upper 50s this afternoon, there is still a low chance that one or two of those cumulus clouds across the Hill Country could pop an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm late this afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the mesoscale models including the Texas Tech WRF, ARW, and HRRR continue to support this. Chances are low though, and if a shower does occur and someone gets a quick few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch of rain they will be very lucky. Most areas will be hot and sunny for the rest of the afternoon as the upper level ridge of high pressure continues to be centered over the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border. The heat will continue on Friday after another warm night. Continued drying should help zero out rain chances for Friday but also lead to less cloud cover. Less clouds under a dome of high pressure means only one thing - increasing temperatures. Friday will approach Heat Advisory criteria briefly in some spots, but for now will hold off on issuing the product and let the evening/mid shifts reassess later model temperature forecasts. Even without the heat advisory it will still be hot, so those out and about should continue to be mindful and drink plenty of water, wear light colored clothing, take breaks in the shade, and get your errands done in the morning during the cooler parts of the day. While the short term generally looks hot and dry, there may be some relief in the long term! && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The upper level ridge will flatten over Texas Saturday keeping the weather dry weather over our CWA for the weekend. With the ridge weakening slightly, temperatures will be a degree or two lower for the weekend, but highs will still near 100 for most of the CWA. Humidity will be fairly low and heat indices will be very close to temperatures. Monday a weak cold front will move over our CWA. Models are now showing the boundary moving through our CWA and stalling over South Texas before dissipating Tuesday. This will bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Models are becoming a bit more consistent on precipitation for our CWA, especially the eastern half of the region. We`ve increased POPs a bit there for Tuesday. The front will also bring some less hot air and highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern half of the area Wednesday and temperatures will remain somewhat depressed in the normal range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 VFR flying conditions and light winds are forecast through the period. Early Friday, some low stratus are likely to develop over the Coastal Plains but are not expected to reach the I-35 terminals. Winds are mainly out of the SE this evening at or below 10 knots, and overnight will shift to the S or even SSW. Wind speeds will remain below 10 knots at the I-35 terminals Friday, but will be a touch higher at KDRT and may gust to 20 knots at times. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Record high temperatures for: June 23 June 24 June 25 Austin Mabry 104(2017) 105(2009) 106(2009) Austin Bergstrom 103(1953) 104(2009) 107(2009) San Antonio 102(1990) 102(2009) 103(2012) Del Rio 106(2018) 106(2018) 106(1994) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Treadway Long-Term...05 Aviation...KCW
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ..AVIATION UPDATE.. .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 The main story for today is the threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon through the evening. There is decent model agreement that convection will largely target areas south of I-80. But unfortunately there is still some question on storm intensity. Mesoanalysis shows a supercell-favorable environment with 30-40kts of deep shear and 2500J/kg+ of MLCAPE. Additionally, low-level instability and helicity will be strong enough to support a tornado threat. The remaining question is how much of this environment we can tap into. The HRRR continues to advertise largely elevated and weaker convection (likely keeping surface parcels capped). On the other hand, many of the other HREF members develop stronger surface-based storms which would potentially bring all severe hazards into play. Since we are seeing some storms starting to develop in response to forcing arriving from the southwest, so I tend to favor the higher severe threat indicated by the other HREF members. Activity will exit the area by Friday morning, but we will potentially have another round in the afternoon and evening. Before that, we will have another hot day for many locations. Southern areas may see temperatures top 100 degrees and heat index values reaching 105 degrees. Details on convective evolution for Friday afternoon/evening is somewhat uncertain, but stronger forcing aloft and an approaching front should yield at least scattered convection. This would likely favor our northern half, and the hot and humid air would be favorable for severe weather. The weekend then cools down after the cold front moves through the area. Saturday will be breezy with highs in the 80s. There is still a chance for a few storms in our southeast, but most areas will be dry. Sunday will be even cooler, with highs in the 70s. The overall pattern is looking quite dry Sunday through at least the middle of next week as temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Thunderstorms are developing across the area this evening, but activity is expected to remain south of the terminals. LLWS is expected to affect both terminals late tonight and into the early morning hours. There are indications of some lower stratus in the early morning hours, but while models indicate this may be more likely at KGRI, confidence is too low to include in this TAF issuance. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Afternoon convection has once again diminished and we are looking at another warm night. I feel like a broken record in saying to look for the same conditions tomorrow as today. Heat Advisory in effect, hot conditions, afternoon convection. Stay cool out there and take plenty of breaks if working outside! /28/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Tomorrow: Most of the forecast area should remain dry the rest of this afternoon and evening, but an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out through late this afternoon/early evening. Any storms that do develop will be monitored for isolated damaging wind gust potential, as locally derived microburst composite showed a slight chance for microbursts due to steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates as well as high DCAPE. Showers or storms should quickly drop off by around sunset, with drier air continuing to filter from the north through tonight into tomorrow. Various guidance shows a weak shortwave disturbance moving south around the edge of the ridge tomorrow, which may help to enhance adiabatic descent in the lower levels tomorrow - especially across northeast Mississippi. HRRR and some of the high-res guidance show an extreme amount of mixing tomorrow afternoon with dew points dropping even into the 40s in eastern Mississippi, but a more modest amount of mixing into the 50s or low 60s is more reasonable. Even with dew points around 60, the high temps of around 99-100 would yield RH values below 30 percent for parts of eastern Mississippi - notably drier and more pleasant than the recent soupy conditions. This will create a gradient of heat concerns tomorrow - heat indices greater than 105 across far southeast AR, northeast LA, and southwestern MS still requiring a Heat Advisory ranging down to heat indices below 100 in the Golden Triangle area of northeast Mississippi. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for areas in the southwest half through tomorrow evening. A chance for isolated showers or storms will also exist for far southern parts of the area tomorrow afternoon, where moisture will be greater. /NF/KP/ Friday night through Thursday: By Friday into Saturday, a weak surface front will move into the northeastern portion of Mississippi, which may dry out NE portions of the state on Saturday. This will leave minimal rain chances in the forecast on Saturday. Nonetheless, deep layer ridging will persist over the region through the weekend, which will keep oppressive heat conditions favorable through Sunday. By Sunday morning into afternoon, global guidance hints at a surface low pressure off of the MS/AL coast to provide moisture into the low levels. Due to this and the influence of diurnal heating, the next best chance of rain will be on Sunday. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible throughout the day across the entire forecast area. The influence of a Gulf disturbance will allow for scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term forecast period. Increased precipitation chances Monday through Thursday and the movement of the high pressure "dome" over the ArkLaMiss region will allow for decreased high temperatures through mid-week. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, which is closer to average for late June. Heat Indices will also struggle to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s areawide, which is a relief from the dangerous heat stress conditions that we have been experiencing over the past week or so. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Afternoon convection will continue to potentially affect KHBG/KPIB before diminishing(which it currently is in the process of doing). Winds will remain out of the north through the period. Similar conditions will exist tomorrow as they were today. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 97 73 99 / 3 10 2 10 Meridian 74 100 73 101 / 5 8 2 16 Vicksburg 74 98 74 99 / 4 15 3 9 Hattiesburg 75 100 74 101 / 7 20 5 18 Natchez 73 98 74 98 / 3 19 5 9 Greenville 73 96 73 98 / 3 8 2 6 Greenwood 73 98 72 99 / 4 7 1 8 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ040-041- 047>049-053>055-059>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. A low pressure system over western Nevada will continue to advance eastward through the night and on Friday. High res models continue to show scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the south-central highlands late this afternoon before spreading eastward through the southeast highlands tonight. With the low still lurking over northern Utah on Friday combined with a weak cold front advancing in from the west, we could still see some isolated thunderstorms, once the nocturnal convection dissipates, Friday afternoon across the southeast highlands as well as the Island Park region. Winds, both for the remainder of this afternoon and Friday afternoon, look breezy. NBM 4.1 and HREF solidly supports lake wind advisory for the American Falls Reservoir but falls short of wind advisory for the Snake Plain. So, will issue a lake wind for tomorrow with sustained winds over the reservoir of 20 mph from the west likely. Not expecting much rainfall with this system with the 25-75th percentile from the HREF indicating precipitation totals of less than a tenth of an inch. Although there are some indications of up to two tenths in stronger cells. Severe potential looks very limited due to lack of wind shear and weak upper level support. However, gusty winds from dry microbursts are possible. DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg are indicated by the RAP this afternoon which would support to 50 mph. Minus 20 levels are around 23000 ft MSL, so would think any hail would probably be small. NAM12 indicates similar conditions around on Friday afternoon as well, so would expect comparable winds/hail potential from any storms that develop Friday afternoon. 13 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday. Winds Saturday turn downplain/downvalley, and definitely meet the threshold for a Northeast Wind LAKE WIND ADVISORY at the moment. If trends continue this way, we will likely need to issue one at some point tomorrow or early Saturday morning. Otherwise, over the weekend high pressure continues to rebuild. There will be very limited moisture pushing toward the Utah border Sunday afternoon. The chance right now of seeing anything develop is 10% or less down in the area. The cluster forecasts agree with the general pattern. In fact the current cluster forecasts are weaker with the ridge vs the GFS/NAM/ECMWF. The ridge continues to build and will peak over Idaho Monday into Tuesday. A little more monsoon moisture creeps into eastern Idaho, but still not enough to produce anything more than around a 10% chance of dry storms across the mountains Monday. The ridge will begin to shift east later Tuesday, but how quickly is the main question. The clusters are about evenly split and support each camp (GFS/quicker and ECMWF/slower). The Blend of Models at least brings in isolated storms from around Gilmore Summit to Island Park, the southward through the eastern and southeast highlands. That trend repeats itself somewhat Wednesday and Thursday to a lesser extent each day in the Blend of Models. There is a little more support from the cluster forecasts Wednesday as about 70% of clusters for the GFS and ECMWF. The support for the ridge trying to rebound Thursday is up to 80%. Highs should peak early next week with low to mid 90s across most of the valleys. Any issues with Heat Risk looks limited to those who are more sensitive to heat-related issues. Keyes && .AVIATION...We are expecting some showers and thunderstorms for today and tomorrow. Impacts are possible through early morning at BYI, PIH, IDA, and DIJ. Gusty winds are the main risk with these storms. For later Friday, any risk of storms and gusty winds should be confined to DIJ. Outside of storms, overall gusty winds are possible at the Snake Plain TAF sites through this evening and Friday afternoon. Keyes && .FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Idaho tonight into Friday. Rainfall amounts are light and generally less than a than tenth of an inch. Breezy conditions are likely Friday afternoon with gusts to 25 mph possible. 13 && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ054. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Key Messages: 1) Convection diminishes quickly after sunset this evening, with most areas staying dry through the overnight hours. 2) Warmer temperatures expected for Friday afternoon with isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the central mountains. Currently.. Weak thunderstorms are pushing through the La Garitas and Northern San Juans with some convection still lingering in the San Luis Valley as of 2:30pm local time. Generally expecting these storms to stay fairly benign, but some cells could produce locally heavy rainfall. The main threats with these storms will be very small hail, cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. Also, starting to see some billowing in cu fields out east in Bent, Prowers and Baca counties out ahead of a trough axis pushing through that area. Shear is minimal on our plains today, but we could briefly see small hail of about 1/2 inch diameter. The main threat with these storms out east will be gusty winds up to 60 mph with DCAPE values in that area well over 1000 J/Kg. Tonight.. Convection is expected to diminish and push out of the forecast area by around 00-02Z this evening. Overnight low temperatures look to stay fairly close to normal in the mountains and maybe just a few degrees warmer than normal in the plains, with most of the plains staying near 60 degrees by Friday morning. Tomorrow.. Both the NAM Nest and the HRRR have trended slightly north with an ejecting shortwave trough passing through the region on Friday, keeping the best chances for precip up into Wyoming and northern Colorado. We will likely still see spotty showers and weak thunderstorm development in the La Garitas and Central Mountains, but storm coverage is looking more isolated. Any storms that keep their act together long enough to push out into the I-25 corridor will likely die off quickly. With inverted v forecast soundings and an overall lack of low level moisture, the main threat with these storms will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and cloud to ground lightning. Daytime highs tomorrow are looking a few degrees warmer than today, with the plains reaching well into the mid and upper nineties, valleys climbing into the low eighties, and mountains getting into the sixties to seventies. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Key Messages: 1) Widespread moisture and precipitation are still expected through the start of next week. 2) Relatively cooler temperatures will set in later this weekend. 3) Drier weather returns around the middle of next week. Saturday-Sunday... While recent model runs have been pushing south with the passage of the upper-level system, recent consensus still pegs our forecast area with considerable moisture through the rest of the weekend. Still sticking a bit closer to the GFS solutions, which tends to be closer to the average of the `wetter` and `drier` solutions amongst deterministic model guidance. Recent ensemble solutions also still show modest QPF over our southern zones, more supporting a precip- heavy solution. A front will push south across the plains on Saturday, which will serve to turn surface winds more easterly, giving us consistent and moist upslope flow into our southeast mountains, which should last through Monday. Steering flow at mid- levels appears weak and disorganized, and weaker amounts of instability are showing up in recent model runs, hinting that precipitation will likely stick close to the higher terrain and remain mostly stratiform in nature, rather than typical summertime convective cells. This will mitigate concerns for most severe weather threats, but burn scar flash-flooding will continue to be a more active concern through the period. Rain showers on Saturday are currently expected to continue most of Saturday and Sunday, with the upslope winds persisting. Widespread cloud cover will also serve to keep high temperatures down, with mid 70s-80s on Saturday and high- 60s on Sunday. Snow level still appear to be between 12 and 13 kft, with the peaks of the Sangres and Pikes Peak region potentially getting a few inches of slushy, wet snow. Some locally heavier rainfall will be possible on Sunday, as passing mid-upper level energy could locally intensify showers. This could pose a higher level of concern for burn scar areas as well. Monday... High pressure will begin to build into the region starting on Monday, dwindling the widespread, stratiform precipitation. Flow at the mid-levels will turn more northwesterly, allowing for some better orographic lift over portions of our higher terrain. Meanwhile, winds slower to the surface will gain a southerly component, advecting in warmer air and higher dewpoints to the eastern plains, and the resulting instability may shift precipitation mode Monday afternoon towards convective cells. Temperatures will also rebound about 10 degrees, back into the mid- high 70s. Tuesday-Thursday... The upper-level ridge and associated high pressure will properly set in over the area over the middle of next week. This will lead to increased daytime temperatures and clearer skies, which will give us better instability and rounds of daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains but a few cells over the plains and I-25 will be possible. Flash flooding on burn scar areas will continue to be a concern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the TAF sites though early this evening but will be more likely to impact KALS where TAF will carry a tempo group for -TSRA through 00z. Gusts up to 40 kts will be possible near the stronger storms. Thunderstorms look less likely at KCOS but gusty outflow winds will likely impact the terminal as showers and thunderstorms weaken as they push off the mountains. Have timed this at 22z for KCOS terminal but will need to monitor radar trends as this timing could change by an hour or two, and magnitude of the gusts could be higher. KPUB has the lowest chance of being seeing VCSH or VCTS, but will likely see a westerly wind shift spread into the terminal around 23z-00z. Thunderstorms will diminish this evening with convectively driven winds decreasing after 02z. Winds will increase at both KCOS and KPUB Friday morning with gusts up to 20-25 kts by mid morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread off into the adjacent lower elevations. Coverage of thunderstorms looks more isolated on Friday with very low probabilities for impacts at any of the terminals. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR/KT LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will likely have a different character and affect different areas each day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be near or a bit cooler than average. && .DISCUSSION...Well, today has played along according to the script with the first storms popping over central Pima county at noon. HRRR has done en excellent job highlighting this since yesterday. They are filling in nicely around other areas. Some locally heavy rains have been reported with an inch plus over northern parts of the Contreras Fire. Besides the locally heavy rain threat we will still need to watch for strong outflows, particularity Pinal county where the DCAPE is the highest. That would lead to blowing dust issues at a minimum. If the HRRR continues to be fairly correct with what is going on, interacting outflows will maintain convection well into the night before it settles down, mainly west of Tucson. Looking forward, the various CAMs (especially the HRRR) are fairly excited about tomorrow afternoon with an early start once again. That will depend on how well we clear the clouds by tomorrow morning as we will need the solar insolation to recharge. PW should be a bit higher further east so potential for decent rainers exists. Saturday through next week we maintain a favorable monsoon flow pattern which, if modeled correctly will keep high PW levels over the area, near the 80-90% percentile level for late June. Ensembles continue to suggest enhanced activity Sunday thanks to an easterly wave, then another enhanced day or two next week into the following weekend thanks to additional waves. Thanks to the moisture and convection, high temperatures will generally be a bit below average Saturday onward, although cloud cover will likely keep the overnight mins elevated. && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA with SCT-BKN clouds 8-10k ft ABV valley floors. Lowering cloud bases in/around storms to FEW/SCT 4k-6k ft AGL with brief MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45 kts possible with storms and outflows. Storms becoming ISOLD after 24/06Z with less of a wind threat. Otherwise, expect E-SE winds 5-15 kts through the period. SCT SHRA/TSRA redeveloping after 24/19Z with the same hazards/clouds as today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Abundant moisture over the region on a steady monsoon flow pattern through next week will result in high humidity levels and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including overnight storms at times. Storms into the foreseeable future will produce wetting rains for the most part, with a threat strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains leading to significant runoff. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Cerniglia Aviation...Cerniglia Fire Weather....Cerniglia Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at