Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1050 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
The upper level ridge to our west will continue to keep us
under northerly flow aloft and help push a weak front through
the area, with some associated showers and storms. We cool off a
bit heading into the weekend with highs remaining the low- mid
90`s but still with a chance of showers. A stronger front will
stall over the area next week and deliver cooler and wet
weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Scattered afternoon convection continues to push southward
through the forecast area, driven by weak shortwave energy
rotating around the east side of the upper ridge. Expect these
scattered storms to continue to dive southeastward through the
evening hours before shifting to the Coastal Plain and weakening
by midnight. Skies should begin to clear from the north in the
wake of the convection allowing for a few hours of radiational
cooling before some lower clouds develop during the predawn
hours. Overnight lows are expected to be near to slightly above
normal in the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The offshore low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will finally pull
northeast by Friday and help the ridging along the southern US
to relax slightly. However, the persistent upper level ridge
over the MS Valley will still keep the reinforcing northerly
flow in place. Hi-res and global guidance suggest a few weak
shortwaves will ride around the ridge axis and help trigger some
showers or storms Friday afternoon. Easterly low level flow
should force a convergence region across western SC and eastern
GA, which is also where mid-upper level drying will not inhibit
initiation as much. So PoPs remain highest across the CSRA.
High temps will reach into the low, possibly mid, 90`s for most
of the area. Some lingering clouds will keep Friday night lows
around 70 for the majority of the area.
There will be little change in the pattern for Saturday as the
upper level ridging and northerly flow aloft will still
continue. Dry mid-upper level air, combined with a lack of
strong forcing, will prevent widespread showers and the focal
point for any isolated showers will be near the best moisture
pooling. With the easterly low level flow, the most favorable
spot for initiation will again be in the CSRA. So PoPs are
below 15% in the eastern forecast area, and around 30% across
the west. High temps again will top out in the low 90`s with
overnight lows around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change for Sunday and Monday as the upper level ridging
will continue to persist with a northerly component flow to the
mid-upper levels. PWATs will fall below 1 inch by Sunday morning and
likely remain there for much of Monday, with good agreement
across the GEFS-NAEFS output. Easterly level flow will possibly
help pop and isolated shower either day, but chances remain very
low. With the continuing drop in moisture, strong solar heating
should warm us back into the mid 90`s for the majority of the
area. A cold front is well progged across the blend and ensemble
data to near the area by late Monday and into Tuesday. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front will quickly surge PWATs up to near 2
inches by Tuesday before the front stalls across the area.
Exactly how long the front remains draped across the area is
still uncertain, but confidence is moderate that it will linger
through at least late Wednesday. Temps will run slightly below
to about average, with a good chance for showers and storms both
days. Further disagreements arise late next week following a
short wave passage to our north.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0245z update...Main near term concern is TSRA activity near OGB
moving south and is expected to remain east of AGS. Will expect
the activity to shift out of our FA by 05z or so.
Focus will then shift to any fog/stratus potential for later
tonight. Given rainfall and associated cooling at CAE/CUB/OGB,
and satellite indications of convective debris cloudiness clearing
later, plus winds expected to become light, some fog is
possible. For now, will indicate MVFR VSBY potential. Other
concern is area of MVFR CIGs to our NE over E NC moving west.
Latest HRRR keeps those CIGs to our north, and latest SREF
brings it close to CAE/CUB. Will indicate SCT MVFR CIGs at
CAE/CUB/OGB for now and let later shift reevaluate based on
trends.
On Friday, drier air will enter eastern areas, while a surface
boundary sets up near the CSRA. This will allow for scattered
diurnal convection to favor AGS/DNL Friday. For now, will
indicate VCTS at those locations.
EXTENDED AVIATION...Drier air will provide only a slight chance of
diurnal thunderstorms Saturday, with no activity expected Sunday.
A frontal boundary and increased moisture will provide an
increased chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
The mid-afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a broad
anticyclonically curved middle-upper tropospheric flow pattern
across much of the central CONUS. The center of a 592-dam 500mb high
was located across the Red River valley region. The 19Z surface
analysis showed southwest momentum across much of west central and
southwest Kansas with temperatures from 95 to 100F. The southwest
flow was aiding in enhanced convergence in a couple of areas, one
along the I-70 corridor from roughly Wakeeney east to Russel and
another area farther south across portions of south central Kansas
where dewpoints of lower 70s were still being observed at PTT and
P28.
The various CAMs, including the HRRR, were really targeting the
I-70 corridor for the most aggressive surface-based thunderstorm
activity in vicinity of the northern, more pronounced zone of
boundary layer convergence. Other storms will likely become fairly
aggressive farther south down the convergence zone into central and
south central Kansas, but this region will be a bit more displaced
from better vertical wind shear profile up to 6km AGL. Severe
thunderstorm risk will wane after 00Z as the threat area shifts east
deeper into central/northern Kansas. The rest of tonight will be
rather breezy out of the south which will keep temperatures up in
the upper 70s to lower 80s through much of the night.
Friday afternoon still looks really hot. All the latest models
continue to show afternoon temps in the 103 to 106F range across
much of west central, southwest, and south central Kansas, and the
synoptic setup certainly supports it, as the greatest downslope
plume of hot air typically precedes a strong High Plains cold front.
The afternoon relative humidity will be very low, even in the
eastern counties, which would result in heat indices at least a
degree or two lower than the actual air temperature, so a Heat
Advisory will not be considered on this forecast update, despite the
widespread 104-105F actual air temperature forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
The much-advertised strong cold front early this weekend will mark
the beginning of a very welcomed cool/wet period across much of the
Central High Plains. The front is likely to clear the entire DDC CWA
(including Barber County) by early afternoon. The cold advection
behind the front will be modest, and will stunt the diurnal rise
across much of the southwest Kansas region in the afternoon. Most
areas should still see afternoon temperatures top out from 90 to 95
degrees (close to 100 in southern Barber County).
Saturday Night through Sunday look wet. The surface front will slow
down with post-frontal upslope east/northeasterly winds interacting
with the higher terrain of northern/northeastern New Mexico and
adjacent southern Colorado, in the face of a modest North American
Monsoon circulation which will continue to be fairly well-
established. The ingredients are coming together for widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall with numerous thunderstorms from
northeastern New Mexico northeast across western Kansas late
Saturday Evening through early Sunday (especially west of a Garden
City to Liberal line to the Colorado border).
Western Kansas will remain in this loosely coupled-jet structure
through Monday, which would support continued shower and
thunderstorm activity (mainly showers or even stratiform rain given
the depleted lower-mid tropospheric instability). Temperatures both
Sunday and Monday will be stuck in the 60s to lower 70s across much
of west central and southwest Kansas given all the cloud cover and
precipitation around the region amidst the already chilly (for this
time of year) lower tropospheric airmass (850mb temps of +10 to +13C
most of the time during this Sunday-Monday period).
As the north central CONUS upper level trough/jet streak pulls away
from the Great Plains beginning Monday Night/Tuesday, the
precipitation chances will go down, and we will begin a modification
of the airmass. Tuesday will most likely be a transition day from
the anomalously cool pattern to something more typical of late June,
so we are looking at widespread lower to mid 80s for highs on
Tuesday. Thursday of next week would most likely be the first day
back to 100 or at least flirting with the triple digit value
again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Thunderstorms will be possible in the Hays area over the next few
hours. A few of the stronger storms will be capable of producing
strong damaging winds, isolated large hail and periods of heavy
rainfall. After 02z Friday the best chances for thunderstorms will
be located north and east of Hays. BUFR soundings and observation
indicating ceilings in the 8000 to 15000ft AGL can be expected
overnight across southwest Kansas as a south southeast wind at
around 15 knots continues. BUFR soundings do indicated a low
level jet developing after 06z Friday with wind speeds of 40 to
50 knots being possible near the 2000ft AGL level until daybreak
Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 105 70 93 / 10 0 10 20
GCK 71 103 67 90 / 20 0 10 10
EHA 68 101 66 89 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 71 104 69 93 / 10 0 10 20
HYS 71 105 70 90 / 20 10 20 10
P28 74 104 75 98 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Mostly Sunny skies continue this afternoon across South Central
Texas with highs already reaching the Century mark by 2pm in some
spots. Where yesterday had a fairly extensive cumulus field, today
skies for most areas are mostly clear, with the exception being
across parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country where cumulus
clouds continue to grow. While moisture is decreasing in parts of
the area - with dew points dropping from the mid to low 60s this
morning to low 60s and upper 50s this afternoon, there is still a
low chance that one or two of those cumulus clouds across the Hill
Country could pop an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the mesoscale models
including the Texas Tech WRF, ARW, and HRRR continue to support
this. Chances are low though, and if a shower does occur and someone
gets a quick few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch of rain they
will be very lucky. Most areas will be hot and sunny for the rest of
the afternoon as the upper level ridge of high pressure continues to
be centered over the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border.
The heat will continue on Friday after another warm night. Continued
drying should help zero out rain chances for Friday but also lead to
less cloud cover. Less clouds under a dome of high pressure means
only one thing - increasing temperatures. Friday will approach Heat
Advisory criteria briefly in some spots, but for now will hold off
on issuing the product and let the evening/mid shifts reassess later
model temperature forecasts. Even without the heat advisory it will
still be hot, so those out and about should continue to be mindful
and drink plenty of water, wear light colored clothing, take breaks
in the shade, and get your errands done in the morning during the
cooler parts of the day. While the short term generally looks hot
and dry, there may be some relief in the long term!
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
The upper level ridge will flatten over Texas Saturday keeping the
weather dry weather over our CWA for the weekend. With the ridge
weakening slightly, temperatures will be a degree or two lower for
the weekend, but highs will still near 100 for most of the CWA.
Humidity will be fairly low and heat indices will be very close to
temperatures. Monday a weak cold front will move over our CWA. Models
are now showing the boundary moving through our CWA and stalling over
South Texas before dissipating Tuesday. This will bring low chances
for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Models are becoming
a bit more consistent on precipitation for our CWA, especially the
eastern half of the region. We`ve increased POPs a bit there for
Tuesday. The front will also bring some less hot air and highs on
Tuesday will be mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern half of the area
Wednesday and temperatures will remain somewhat depressed in the
normal range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
VFR flying conditions and light winds are forecast through the
period. Early Friday, some low stratus are likely to develop over the
Coastal Plains but are not expected to reach the I-35 terminals.
Winds are mainly out of the SE this evening at or below 10 knots,
and overnight will shift to the S or even SSW. Wind speeds will
remain below 10 knots at the I-35 terminals Friday, but will be a
touch higher at KDRT and may gust to 20 knots at times.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Record high temperatures for:
June 23 June 24 June 25
Austin Mabry 104(2017) 105(2009) 106(2009)
Austin Bergstrom 103(1953) 104(2009) 107(2009)
San Antonio 102(1990) 102(2009) 103(2012)
Del Rio 106(2018) 106(2018) 106(1994)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 75 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 74 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 103 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 103 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 74 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Treadway
Long-Term...05
Aviation...KCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
..AVIATION UPDATE..
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
The main story for today is the threat for severe thunderstorms
later this afternoon through the evening. There is decent model
agreement that convection will largely target areas south of I-80.
But unfortunately there is still some question on storm
intensity. Mesoanalysis shows a supercell-favorable environment
with 30-40kts of deep shear and 2500J/kg+ of MLCAPE. Additionally,
low-level instability and helicity will be strong enough to
support a tornado threat. The remaining question is how much of
this environment we can tap into. The HRRR continues to advertise
largely elevated and weaker convection (likely keeping surface
parcels capped). On the other hand, many of the other HREF members
develop stronger surface-based storms which would potentially
bring all severe hazards into play. Since we are seeing some
storms starting to develop in response to forcing arriving from
the southwest, so I tend to favor the higher severe threat
indicated by the other HREF members.
Activity will exit the area by Friday morning, but we will
potentially have another round in the afternoon and evening.
Before that, we will have another hot day for many locations.
Southern areas may see temperatures top 100 degrees and heat index
values reaching 105 degrees. Details on convective evolution for
Friday afternoon/evening is somewhat uncertain, but stronger
forcing aloft and an approaching front should yield at least
scattered convection. This would likely favor our northern half,
and the hot and humid air would be favorable for severe weather.
The weekend then cools down after the cold front moves through
the area. Saturday will be breezy with highs in the 80s. There is
still a chance for a few storms in our southeast, but most areas
will be dry. Sunday will be even cooler, with highs in the 70s.
The overall pattern is looking quite dry Sunday through at least
the middle of next week as temperatures climb back into the mid to
upper 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Thunderstorms are developing across the area this evening, but
activity is expected to remain south of the terminals.
LLWS is expected to affect both terminals late tonight and into
the early morning hours.
There are indications of some lower stratus in the early morning
hours, but while models indicate this may be more likely at KGRI,
confidence is too low to include in this TAF issuance.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hickford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon convection has once again diminished and we are looking
at another warm night. I feel like a broken record in saying to
look for the same conditions tomorrow as today. Heat Advisory in
effect, hot conditions, afternoon convection. Stay cool out there
and take plenty of breaks if working outside! /28/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Tomorrow:
Most of the forecast area should remain dry the rest of this
afternoon and evening, but an isolated shower or storm cannot be
ruled out through late this afternoon/early evening. Any storms that
do develop will be monitored for isolated damaging wind gust
potential, as locally derived microburst composite showed a slight
chance for microbursts due to steep low-level and mid-level lapse
rates as well as high DCAPE. Showers or storms should quickly drop
off by around sunset, with drier air continuing to filter from the
north through tonight into tomorrow. Various guidance shows a weak
shortwave disturbance moving south around the edge of the ridge
tomorrow, which may help to enhance adiabatic descent in the lower
levels tomorrow - especially across northeast Mississippi. HRRR and
some of the high-res guidance show an extreme amount of mixing
tomorrow afternoon with dew points dropping even into the 40s in
eastern Mississippi, but a more modest amount of mixing into the 50s
or low 60s is more reasonable. Even with dew points around 60, the
high temps of around 99-100 would yield RH values below 30 percent
for parts of eastern Mississippi - notably drier and more pleasant
than the recent soupy conditions. This will create a gradient of
heat concerns tomorrow - heat indices greater than 105 across far
southeast AR, northeast LA, and southwestern MS still requiring a
Heat Advisory ranging down to heat indices below 100 in the Golden
Triangle area of northeast Mississippi. A Heat Advisory will be in
effect for areas in the southwest half through tomorrow evening. A
chance for isolated showers or storms will also exist for far
southern parts of the area tomorrow afternoon, where moisture will
be greater. /NF/KP/
Friday night through Thursday:
By Friday into Saturday, a weak surface front will move into the
northeastern portion of Mississippi, which may dry out NE portions
of the state on Saturday. This will leave minimal rain chances in
the forecast on Saturday. Nonetheless, deep layer ridging will
persist over the region through the weekend, which will keep
oppressive heat conditions favorable through Sunday. By Sunday
morning into afternoon, global guidance hints at a surface low
pressure off of the MS/AL coast to provide moisture into the low
levels. Due to this and the influence of diurnal heating, the next
best chance of rain will be on Sunday. Isolated to scattered storms
will be possible throughout the day across the entire forecast area.
The influence of a Gulf disturbance will allow for scattered chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term
forecast period.
Increased precipitation chances Monday through Thursday and the
movement of the high pressure "dome" over the ArkLaMiss region will
allow for decreased high temperatures through mid-week. Highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, which is closer to average for
late June. Heat Indices will also struggle to reach the upper 90s to
lower 100s areawide, which is a relief from the dangerous heat
stress conditions that we have been experiencing over the past week
or so. /AJ/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Afternoon
convection will continue to potentially affect KHBG/KPIB before
diminishing(which it currently is in the process of doing). Winds
will remain out of the north through the period. Similar
conditions will exist tomorrow as they were today. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 75 97 73 99 / 3 10 2 10
Meridian 74 100 73 101 / 5 8 2 16
Vicksburg 74 98 74 99 / 4 15 3 9
Hattiesburg 75 100 74 101 / 7 20 5 18
Natchez 73 98 74 98 / 3 19 5 9
Greenville 73 96 73 98 / 3 8 2 6
Greenwood 73 98 72 99 / 4 7 1 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ040-041-
047>049-053>055-059>066-072>074.
LA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
A low pressure system over western Nevada will continue to advance
eastward through the night and on Friday. High res models continue
to show scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the
south-central highlands late this afternoon before spreading
eastward through the southeast highlands tonight. With the low still
lurking over northern Utah on Friday combined with a weak cold front
advancing in from the west, we could still see some isolated
thunderstorms, once the nocturnal convection dissipates, Friday
afternoon across the southeast highlands as well as the Island Park
region. Winds, both for the remainder of this afternoon and Friday
afternoon, look breezy. NBM 4.1 and HREF solidly supports lake wind
advisory for the American Falls Reservoir but falls short of wind
advisory for the Snake Plain. So, will issue a lake wind for
tomorrow with sustained winds over the reservoir of 20 mph from the
west likely. Not expecting much rainfall with this system with the
25-75th percentile from the HREF indicating precipitation totals of
less than a tenth of an inch. Although there are some indications of
up to two tenths in stronger cells. Severe potential looks very
limited due to lack of wind shear and weak upper level support.
However, gusty winds from dry microbursts are possible. DCAPE values
of around 1000 J/kg are indicated by the RAP this afternoon which
would support to 50 mph. Minus 20 levels are around 23000 ft MSL, so
would think any hail would probably be small. NAM12 indicates
similar conditions around on Friday afternoon as well, so would
expect comparable winds/hail potential from any storms that develop
Friday afternoon.
13
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday. Winds Saturday turn
downplain/downvalley, and definitely meet the threshold for a
Northeast Wind LAKE WIND ADVISORY at the moment. If trends continue
this way, we will likely need to issue one at some point tomorrow or
early Saturday morning. Otherwise, over the weekend high pressure
continues to rebuild. There will be very limited moisture pushing
toward the Utah border Sunday afternoon. The chance right now of
seeing anything develop is 10% or less down in the area. The cluster
forecasts agree with the general pattern. In fact the current
cluster forecasts are weaker with the ridge vs the GFS/NAM/ECMWF.
The ridge continues to build and will peak over Idaho Monday into
Tuesday. A little more monsoon moisture creeps into eastern Idaho,
but still not enough to produce anything more than around a 10%
chance of dry storms across the mountains Monday. The ridge will
begin to shift east later Tuesday, but how quickly is the main
question. The clusters are about evenly split and support each camp
(GFS/quicker and ECMWF/slower). The Blend of Models at least brings
in isolated storms from around Gilmore Summit to Island Park, the
southward through the eastern and southeast highlands. That trend
repeats itself somewhat Wednesday and Thursday to a lesser extent
each day in the Blend of Models. There is a little more support from
the cluster forecasts Wednesday as about 70% of clusters for the GFS
and ECMWF. The support for the ridge trying to rebound Thursday is
up to 80%. Highs should peak early next week with low to mid 90s
across most of the valleys. Any issues with Heat Risk looks limited
to those who are more sensitive to heat-related issues. Keyes
&&
.AVIATION...We are expecting some showers and thunderstorms for
today and tomorrow. Impacts are possible through early morning at
BYI, PIH, IDA, and DIJ. Gusty winds are the main risk with these
storms. For later Friday, any risk of storms and gusty winds
should be confined to DIJ. Outside of storms, overall gusty winds
are possible at the Snake Plain TAF sites through this evening and
Friday afternoon. Keyes
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Idaho tonight into Friday.
Rainfall amounts are light and generally less than a than tenth of
an inch. Breezy conditions are likely Friday afternoon with gusts to
25 mph possible.
13
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ054.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Key Messages:
1) Convection diminishes quickly after sunset this evening, with
most areas staying dry through the overnight hours.
2) Warmer temperatures expected for Friday afternoon with isolated
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the central
mountains.
Currently.. Weak thunderstorms are pushing through the La Garitas
and Northern San Juans with some convection still lingering in the
San Luis Valley as of 2:30pm local time. Generally expecting these
storms to stay fairly benign, but some cells could produce locally
heavy rainfall. The main threats with these storms will be very
small hail, cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. Also,
starting to see some billowing in cu fields out east in Bent,
Prowers and Baca counties out ahead of a trough axis pushing through
that area. Shear is minimal on our plains today, but we could
briefly see small hail of about 1/2 inch diameter. The main threat
with these storms out east will be gusty winds up to 60 mph with
DCAPE values in that area well over 1000 J/Kg.
Tonight.. Convection is expected to diminish and push out of the
forecast area by around 00-02Z this evening. Overnight low
temperatures look to stay fairly close to normal in the mountains
and maybe just a few degrees warmer than normal in the plains, with
most of the plains staying near 60 degrees by Friday morning.
Tomorrow.. Both the NAM Nest and the HRRR have trended slightly
north with an ejecting shortwave trough passing through the region
on Friday, keeping the best chances for precip up into Wyoming and
northern Colorado. We will likely still see spotty showers and weak
thunderstorm development in the La Garitas and Central Mountains,
but storm coverage is looking more isolated. Any storms that keep
their act together long enough to push out into the I-25 corridor
will likely die off quickly. With inverted v forecast soundings and
an overall lack of low level moisture, the main threat with these
storms will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and cloud to ground
lightning. Daytime highs tomorrow are looking a few degrees warmer
than today, with the plains reaching well into the mid and upper
nineties, valleys climbing into the low eighties, and mountains
getting into the sixties to seventies.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Key Messages:
1) Widespread moisture and precipitation are still expected through
the start of next week.
2) Relatively cooler temperatures will set in later this weekend.
3) Drier weather returns around the middle of next week.
Saturday-Sunday...
While recent model runs have been pushing south with the passage of
the upper-level system, recent consensus still pegs our forecast
area with considerable moisture through the rest of the weekend.
Still sticking a bit closer to the GFS solutions, which tends to be
closer to the average of the `wetter` and `drier` solutions amongst
deterministic model guidance. Recent ensemble solutions also still
show modest QPF over our southern zones, more supporting a precip-
heavy solution. A front will push south across the plains on
Saturday, which will serve to turn surface winds more easterly,
giving us consistent and moist upslope flow into our southeast
mountains, which should last through Monday. Steering flow at mid-
levels appears weak and disorganized, and weaker amounts of
instability are showing up in recent model runs, hinting that
precipitation will likely stick close to the higher terrain and
remain mostly stratiform in nature, rather than typical summertime
convective cells. This will mitigate concerns for most severe
weather threats, but burn scar flash-flooding will continue to be a
more active concern through the period. Rain showers on Saturday are
currently expected to continue most of Saturday and Sunday, with the
upslope winds persisting. Widespread cloud cover will also serve to
keep high temperatures down, with mid 70s-80s on Saturday and high-
60s on Sunday. Snow level still appear to be between 12 and 13 kft,
with the peaks of the Sangres and Pikes Peak region potentially
getting a few inches of slushy, wet snow. Some locally heavier
rainfall will be possible on Sunday, as passing mid-upper level
energy could locally intensify showers. This could pose a higher
level of concern for burn scar areas as well.
Monday...
High pressure will begin to build into the region starting
on Monday, dwindling the widespread, stratiform precipitation. Flow
at the mid-levels will turn more northwesterly, allowing for some
better orographic lift over portions of our higher terrain.
Meanwhile, winds slower to the surface will gain a southerly
component, advecting in warmer air and higher dewpoints to the
eastern plains, and the resulting instability may shift
precipitation mode Monday afternoon towards convective cells.
Temperatures will also rebound about 10 degrees, back into the mid-
high 70s.
Tuesday-Thursday...
The upper-level ridge and associated high pressure will properly set
in over the area over the middle of next week. This will lead to
increased daytime temperatures and clearer skies, which will give us
better instability and rounds of daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains but a few cells over the
plains and I-25 will be possible. Flash flooding on burn scar areas
will continue to be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the TAF sites though
early this evening but will be more likely to impact KALS where TAF
will carry a tempo group for -TSRA through 00z. Gusts up to 40 kts
will be possible near the stronger storms. Thunderstorms look less
likely at KCOS but gusty outflow winds will likely impact the
terminal as showers and thunderstorms weaken as they push off the
mountains. Have timed this at 22z for KCOS terminal but will need to
monitor radar trends as this timing could change by an hour or two,
and magnitude of the gusts could be higher. KPUB has the lowest
chance of being seeing VCSH or VCTS, but will likely see a westerly
wind shift spread into the terminal around 23z-00z. Thunderstorms
will diminish this evening with convectively driven winds decreasing
after 02z. Winds will increase at both KCOS and KPUB Friday morning
with gusts up to 20-25 kts by mid morning. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread off
into the adjacent lower elevations. Coverage of thunderstorms looks
more isolated on Friday with very low probabilities for impacts at
any of the terminals. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR/KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Thu Jun 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A good monsoon flow pattern will remain over the
southwest through next week maintaining plenty of moisture over the
area. This will result in daily rounds of afternoon and some
nighttime showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
likely have a different character and affect different areas each
day. With the abundant moisture, afternoon high temperatures will be
near or a bit cooler than average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Well, today has played along according to the script
with the first storms popping over central Pima county at noon. HRRR
has done en excellent job highlighting this since yesterday. They
are filling in nicely around other areas. Some locally heavy rains
have been reported with an inch plus over northern parts of the
Contreras Fire. Besides the locally heavy rain threat we will still
need to watch for strong outflows, particularity Pinal county where
the DCAPE is the highest. That would lead to blowing dust issues at a
minimum. If the HRRR continues to be fairly correct with what is
going on, interacting outflows will maintain convection well into the
night before it settles down, mainly west of Tucson.
Looking forward, the various CAMs (especially the HRRR) are fairly
excited about tomorrow afternoon with an early start once again.
That will depend on how well we clear the clouds by tomorrow morning
as we will need the solar insolation to recharge. PW should be a bit
higher further east so potential for decent rainers exists.
Saturday through next week we maintain a favorable monsoon flow
pattern which, if modeled correctly will keep high PW levels over
the area, near the 80-90% percentile level for late June. Ensembles
continue to suggest enhanced activity Sunday thanks to an easterly
wave, then another enhanced day or two next week into the following
weekend thanks to additional waves. Thanks to the moisture and
convection, high temperatures will generally be a bit below average
Saturday onward, although cloud cover will likely keep the overnight
mins elevated.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA with SCT-BKN clouds 8-10k ft ABV valley floors.
Lowering cloud bases in/around storms to FEW/SCT 4k-6k ft AGL with
brief MVFR conditions possible. Erratic wind gusts in excess of 45
kts possible with storms and outflows. Storms becoming ISOLD after
24/06Z with less of a wind threat. Otherwise, expect E-SE winds 5-15
kts through the period. SCT SHRA/TSRA redeveloping after 24/19Z with
the same hazards/clouds as today. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Abundant moisture over the region on a steady monsoon
flow pattern through next week will result in high humidity levels
and daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including overnight
storms at times. Storms into the foreseeable future will produce
wetting rains for the most part, with a threat strong gusty winds
and locally heavy rains leading to significant runoff.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia
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