Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/23/22

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Anchorage AK

 504 PM AKDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level ridge extends from the central Aleutians northeast
across the southern half of the state. A weak upper-level wave
rotating around an area of low pressure over British Columbia is
moving through the Copper River Basin this afternoon. As such,
convection has again initiated off of the higher terrain with
towering cumulus seen building along the periphery of the basin
on visible satellite imagery. For the rest of Southcentral,
conditions are generally clear, warm, and dry with the upper-level
ridge axis parked overhead. Temperatures from interior Kenai
Peninsula to the Mat-Su Valleys are already in the lower to mid
70s as of 1pm.

For Southwest, an easterly traversing shortwave riding over top
the ridge is continuing its push toward the Middle Kuskokwim
Valley. A band of rain showers along the surface trough this
morning is beginning to fall apart as the trough weakens.
Temperatures across Southwest are cooler today due largely to
the increase in clouds cover associated both with this system
and with marine stratus lingering across Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta coast.

This area of low stratus extends westward to blanket most of the
eastern half of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. A front associated
with the North Pacific low is draped over the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
the short term. The biggest challenge over the next 24 to 48
hours will be the extent of convective activity across Southcentral
as a series of shortwaves move over the top the upper-level ridge.
The 18z runs are indicating an area of low to mid-level convergence
between northeasterly flow around the low over British Columbia
and a transitioning wet-northwesterly flow ahead of the wave
moving across Southwest Alaska. Thus, the most recent runs are
more bullish on the potential for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over the Talkeetnas and Copper River Basin.
The 18z NAM, WRF, and HRRR models are also hinting at convective
development, perhaps elevated convection based on data from the
PANC 12z sounding, this evening over the Susitna Valley. Given
this, the afternoon forecast package has been adjusted to include
a larger area for isolated thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A
westerly sea breeze is expected to develop by midday and will
continue through the evening hours. Light and variable winds
will return for the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and generally dry conditions are expected across Southcentral
through the next several days. The biggest short-term forecast
challenge will be the extent of convective activity each afternoon
and evening through the end of the week. The most recent hi-res
model runs are indicating a stronger area of convergence and lift
along the western and southern portions of the Copper River Basin
today (Wednesday). As such, there may be a larger expanse of
thunderstorm activity through this evening over these locations.
Still thinking isolated to widely scattered in nature. There may
also be a second area of focus for convective development this
evening. Models are now hinting at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms across the Susitna Valley this evening. There is
also the potential that any activity over this area may be
elevated in nature, and could continue into the nighttime hours.
Again, activity would be isolated to widely scattered; however, it
is a change in thinking from earlier today. Convective activity
still looks to be mainly confined to the Copper River Basin for
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Expect a warming and drying trend through the next several days
across Southwest Alaska. Clouds and lower temperatures today in
association with a trough will give way to a ridge settling over
the region to end the week. Expect widespread 70s, and perhaps a
few 80 degree temperatures by Friday or Saturday. Fog and low
stratus, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours, may
linger for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and southern Bristol Bay
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Thursday
evening)...

A building ridge over Southcentral will promote warm, dry
conditions. Conditions favoring convective activity seen in the
Talkeetna Mountains and Copper River Basin this afternoon are
expected to persist into the evening. On Thursday, an upper level
wave traverses Southcentral from west to east, bringing an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday, particularly over the Copper River Basin. The ridge of
high pressure expected to build and remain over Southcentral into
the weekend. Marine stratus is present in the Gulf, however
coastal impacts not prominent due to general off-shore flow.
Gusty conditions seen now from Kamishak Bay to Shelikof Strait
and expected to diminish Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a positive tilt ridge axis bisecting southern Alaska
this evening. There is a weak trough north of this ridge that will
quickly exist the region and then the high builds back even
stronger Thursday and Friday. The 576 DAM ridge will be north of
Iliamna and Bethel by 12z Friday. The positive height anomalies at
500 mb become very pronounced Friday and Saturday. Expect a
warming trend over the interior locations with highs in the upper
70s and possibly lower 80s. Along the coast and Nunivak Island,
warm air over cold water is inherently stable so expect areas of
fog and low clouds over portions of the AKPEN and in Bristol Bay
especially in the mornings. Yesterday, there were over 2,000
lightning strikes in the state of Alaska most of which were in the
interior and in the Copper River Basin. This evening there is
potential for isolated wet thunderstorms along the Western Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a mature low southwest of Attu Island that will push a
front eastward and across the Aleutian chain. The leading edge of
the precipitation shield will reach the eastern Aleutians by
Friday. Unsettled weather with showers and small craft to gale
force winds will move across the Aleutians from west to east.
The front will begin to weaken in the vicinity of the Eastern
Aleutians by Friday. The longwave trough will linger over the
Bering and North Pacific through Sunday, which signals an active
pattern for the Bering and the Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Weakening low wanders around the Western
Bering through Monday. Its front pushes into the Alaska Peninsula
by Monday. Forecast confidence is fair with the front`s movement.
Gusty Southerly winds across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Eastern Bering, diminishing. Seas less than 10 feet, subsiding.

Gulf of Alaska: High pressure lingers across the Gulf through
Monday. Forecast confidence is good. Generally light winds over
the Gulf. Seas mostly 6 feet or less.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level ridging is expected to dominate the period from
Sunday through Wednesday, especially across Southcentral Alaska
eastward towards Canada. The ridge will maintain strength for the
first two days of the period before heights begin to fall some for
Tuesday and Wednesday. As the heights fall Tuesday and Wednesday,
the center of the upper ridge will be moving eastward over the
Northwest Territories of Canada. With the ridge still holding
fairly strong through this period, any shower/thunderstorm
activity looks to be limited due to the subsidence aloft. Any
activity looks like it would be mostly confined to the higher
terrain. Overall, the odds are favoring above normal temperatures
to continue along with below normal precipitation. Similar
conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska, however, a
decaying (frontolysis) front over the area will keep portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta unsettled for Sunday before heights build for
Monday through Wednesday. Any shower/thunderstorm activity is
favored to be across the higher terrain across Southwest as well.

Over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians, an upper level low is
expected to remain over the area that will keep the region
unsettled. Model guidance generally agrees on low pressure being
in the area but diverge on exactly where it will go.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/MV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

 618 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...All sites are expected to be VFR through the
period. GUY has a thunderstorm currently but should be clearing of
that by 00Z. Not expecting storms tomorrow. Winds will be light
and somewhat variable overnight but should turn southwesterly by
morning with gusts picking up to the 25-30kt range.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night...

Based on GOES-16 water vapor imagery, at the time of this
writing, there is a mid to upper level high centered over
northeast TX, into OK/AR/LA. A stream of subtropical moisture is
coming up through Mexico into NM/CO/KS, as well as portions of the
northwest combined Panhandles on the western to northern
periphery of the mid to upper level high. Upstream is a small area
of low pressure over central CA with another much bigger low over
northern British Columbia. This set up is keeping some stronger
winds aloft over the central to northern plains states which may
induce a leeside low in northern CO/NE area tomorrow.

Just last night a small frontal boundary came through the FA and
currently winds are still somewhat out of the north and are very
light. These winds are eventually going to turn to the SE and pick
up to around 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. These upslope winds
will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for today.
With the plume of moisture over the northwestern half of the FA
some showers are still ongoing this morning in the far northwest
TX Panhandle and western OK Panhandle. Isolated showers and maybe
a thunderstorm will continue to be possible this afternoon into
evening mainly in the far northern FA. Worst case scenario would
be the possibility of a storm becoming severe in the northeast
around Beaver County this evening. The Namnest is showing around
1000 J/Kg of uncapped SBCAPE with DCAPE around 1400 J/Kg. The HRRR
only has SBCAPE around 450 J/Kg with some spotty areas of
capping. Strong winds will be the main threat if a storm in fact
does become severe. Overall, not too concerned with severe storms
today in the combined Panhandles as confidence is low.

For tomorrow the upper level ridge will strengthen and center
more over TX directing any monsoonal moisture up and around the
FA to the west and north. The strengthening of the high pressure
will also lead to much warmer temperatures with mid to upper 90s
across the area. Certain areas such as PDC will most likely hit
the low triple digits. There will be just enough of an upper
level jet over the central to Northern Great Plains that a leeside
low will develop. This will lead to some breezy southwest winds
tomorrow afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens to the north.
Overall looking dry tomorrow into tomorrow night as far as
precipitation goes.

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

Friday should be the hottest day in the forecast. While the H5
high position and strength doesn`t really chance much from
Thursday, the second day of moderate SW flow should allow temps to
increase some 3-6 degrees above Thu values. This will likely
place PDC near advisory levels. Patchy elevated fire weather
conditions are likely in some of the drier areas. The far NW could
see the tail end of some iso to sct monsoon convection assoc w/ a
weak s/wv coming out of a weakness to the west.

The center of the H5 high will be held at bay and remain near
AR/NRN LA through the weekend. A weak S/WV will cross the Cen
Plains early Sat, followed by a much more substantial trough that
will traverse the NRN Plains and SRN Canada through Sunday. There
is a bit of an H7 theta-e axis in place especially on Saturday,
and especially across the north and NW as a cold front moves into
the area. This combined with subtle S/WV coming up from the SW out
of NM will provide chcs of SHRAs and TSTMs favoring NW zones.
Skinny CAPE and weak shear suggest minimal concern for SVR
threats. There is a cap noted, but thinking is the front will help
break the cap. The front may tend to hang up somewhere in the CWA
initially, but it will get a stronger push south as the main
trough crosses the NRN plains. Models are not in good agreement on
timing of the FROPA with ECMWF and NAM faster than GFS and GEM.
Experience tells us to lean toward the faster timing, but the date
makes us a little more cautious about that.

Sunday and Monday look much cooler by all model accounts in moist
post FROPA environment with ENE low level flow. Post frontal SHRAs
and possibly a few TSTMs are expected behind the front both days.
Again the NW remains favored Sun based on position of the H5 high
to the ESE and given better tap into Desert SW overrunning
moisture. The high will shift to the WRN US as the aforementioned
trough moves east. This will lead to brief period of NW mid-upr
level flow on Monday with decent S/WV crossing into the area from
the NW. Assoc CHCs for storms favors the west again, but this also
might be the best shot for post frontal precip in AMA. Clouds and
lingering showers will hold temps down into the 70s and 80s both
days. Leaned cooler than NBM toward a slightly cooler CONSALL in
collaboration with surrounding offices. QPF forecasts suggest the
NW third of the area might average 1/2 to 1" rainfall total over
the next 5 days - fingers crossed.

Tuesday should be the last cool somewhat moist day as the Monday
S/WV very slowly works around the ridge to the NW providing a
weakness over the area. Looks like the high center will move east
again around mid week, but models are not in good agreement with
details on the location.

Gittinger

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

16/36



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

No changes needed with this update. The forecast remains on track
with a clear and calm night expected.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

No major changes needed to the forecast with this update. Just
blended in the latest observations.

Diving a bit deeper into our thunderstorm chances late Thursday
afternoon and into the evening, there is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms across the southern James River Valley and
areas to the south and east. The best synoptic forcing will come
from a shortwave that will be well displaced to the north and
west, across the northern Rockies and into southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan. However, across the aforementioned risk area, a
strongly buoyant atmosphere is expected to develop through the
day as diurnal heating and significant low-level moisture
advection occurs. The magnitude of instability (MUCAPE reaching as
high as 3000-3500 J/kg according to the HREF mean) may be enough
to overcome subtle forcing and marginal shear, resulting in
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and
hail as the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Dry and warm is the theme for the short term, zonal flow will
stay dominate through Thursday. This afternoon and evening will
continue to be sunny with winds increasing from the southwest
mainly in the west, and a few cumulus clouds from diurnal
heating. Both the winds and clouds will die down around sunset as
the diurnal heating stops. Calm winds and no clouds tonight will
assist in radiation cooling, dropping overnight lows into the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period. A
thermal ridge at 850mb slides back over us along with a south
surface wind. This combination will help temperatures climb back
into the low to mid 90s for most areas. Thursday will also be
mostly clear, diurnal heating could lead to cumulus clouds
developing, but the RAP has mostly dry air over the forecast area.
Thursday night the chance of thunderstorms return to the area
with a cold front moving in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed
Jun 22 2022

A much more active pattern will setup Friday and Saturday. The
main concern is Friday, when we could have severe thunderstorms
again.

Late Thursday evening the flow aloft starts to turn southwest,
with a low pressure digging south through the Pacific Northwest.
By Friday afternoon, the flow will be southwest with the trough
axis in Montana. Themes a surface cold front associated with this
trough that will kick storms off as it sweeps through North
Dakota Friday afternoon and evening. The question will be where
will storms initiate. Models shows high CAPE values but the
atmosphere being capped over much of central North Dakota. While
much of the eastern part of the state is not capped. Some models
show storms firing just west of the Missouri River in the early
afternoon, then again later in the afternoon when the front gets
to the better environment around Jamestown and farther east. The
main threat with these storms look to be hail and damaging winds.
Models have storms forming into a line east of the Missouri River
in late afternoon, this would be the most likely time for the
damaging wind threat. Storms look to continue through Friday
night. With this being two days out still, there is uncertainty
will all this. We will be closely monitoring how things evolve.

Temperatures Friday will remain warm ahead of the
front, with highs in the upper 80s. Behind the cold front in the
northwest, highs will only be in the mid 70s. With the eastern
movement of the aforementioned low pressure to our north, there is
another chance of thunderstorms for the far north on Saturday.
There is less confidence in this chance, and no severe storms are
expected with this. Saturday looks to be cool and breezy with the
cooler wrap around air. High temperatures will be unseasonably
cool with highs ranging from the mid 60s west to the lower 70s
southeast with breezy northwest winds. Northwest flow aloft then
takes over on Sunday until a shortwave ridge starts to move in
late Wednesday.

Sunday through the mid week temperatures warm up again with
another thermal ridge at 850mb. Temperatures could reach into the
mid 80s again by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

VFR conditions through the period with relatively light and
variable winds.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gale
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Gale



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

 851 PM MST Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and storms are expected across the majority of
northern Arizona and through the next several days. This early
monsoon pattern is forecast to stick around through the weekend
and into the beginning of next week as well. Gusty winds,
localized heavy rainfall, and potentially new fire starts due to
lightning are the main concerns through the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move
through the high country this evening but storm motions have kept
them moving and they continue to weaken as we head into the late
evening hours and the instability starts to wane. Outflow
boundaries can still be seen on radar but appear to be much less
robust than they were at this time yesterday and aside from a
brief increase in wind, shouldn`t cause any problems tonight. Skies
should clear more tonight and temperatures will be be cooler than
they were last night. Some adjustments were made to the forecast
to better capture where the precipitation is occurring along with
some minor updates to temperatures and sky cover. Otherwise, the
forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /403 PM MST/...The forecast focus through the
next 7 days is the daily potential for monsoon convection across
the region. Synoptically, the influences from a closed low over
Southern California is both allowing for the advection of
moisture and providing mid and upper level energy across the
desert Southwest, including much of Arizona. This low should
evolve into an open shortwave and exit to the north of the area
through Thursday and Friday, allowing a more traditional H5 ridge
to build across the Southwest.

Looking at the 12Z HREF and latest HRRR runs, robust convection is
depicted across much of the CWA Thursday, but lacking strong QPF
signals, likely due to the very dry low level moisture
environment. This is evident just in PWAT gradients alone, but
clearly seen in forecast soundings from northern Arizona compared
to central or southern parts of the state. Interestingly, GEFS/EC
PWAT increases to a point today, but stays along our southern CWA
border through the next several days...likely due to the building
ridge and no notable feature to steer moisture farther north at a
synoptic level. This will probably act to reduce convective
coverage overall after Friday, but not to a large degree as
daytime heating and the moisture in place will be enough to
convect each afternoon, especially across the typical high terrain
areas.

As noted in the previous discussion, monsoon is great news for
many, but comes with several hazards that will be relevant to all
through the next week at least. These would include...lightning,
gusty outflow winds, and potential for flash flooding. Stay alert
near burn scars and slot canyons. Just because rain is not falling
directly on you, does not mean rain is not occurring upstream and
could lead to flood/debris flowing toward you. Avoid flooded
roadways and never drive into low-water crossings. Stay tuned to
our social media pages (Twitter & Facebook) and weather forecasts
prior to traveling during potentially hazardous conditions.

&&

.AVIATION....For the 06Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period except in and near showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly light and variable winds around 10 knots or
less increasing out of the southwest around 10 to 20 knots after
18Z. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms,
mainly occurring after 18Z with the highest coverage east of a KFLG-
Four Corners line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue across
the entire region Thursday and Friday. Winds outside of storm
activity will be less than 15 mph, with gusty and erratic winds in
and near storms.

Saturday through Monday...Light winds with continued daily chances
for thunderstorms. Lightning, gusty outflow winds, and possible
flash flooding with these storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/VEF
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Key Messages:

1)Continued chances for rainfall possible tonight, especially along
western facing slopes of the San Juan Mountains.

2) Rain showers pushing off the southern Sangres and into portions
of the southern I-25 corridor and eastern plains tonight.

3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible for tomorrow.

Currently.. Cloud cover has done a nice job of inhibiting daytime
convection. Rain cooled air has kept daytime highs in the 70s across
our far eastern plains, where we`re still seeing some rain showers
in portions of Baca, Prowers and Kiowa counties. As of 2pm local
time, still not seeing any lightning in our forecast area, with only
a few strikes out in far southwestern Colorado.

Tonight.. Deterministic models are showing increasing confidence in
moderate to heavy rainfall over the San Juans and southern Sangres
continuing into this evening. The HRRR and the Canadian have both
kept rain fairly stratiform in nature as it pushes off of the
southern Sangres and into the southern I-25 corridor later this
evening, which seems to have played out nicely. Given the abundance
of cloud cover still sitting over the forecast area, thinking this
trend will continue to with scattered chances for light rain showers
possible generally south of highway 50 until about 02-04Z.

Tomorrow.. Tomorrow`s daytime high temperatures will be about 10
degrees warmer than Wednesdays, with most of the plains getting well
into the nineties. Our pattern for Thursday remains generally the
same, with a high pressure center to our southeast and an upper
trough over the Great Basin. This setup will continue to advect
moisture into our forecast area for Thursday. Both the NAM nest and
the HRRR are showing showers moving more west to east tomorrow along
a disturbance within the monsoon plume. Shower and thunderstorm
development look to kick off around 18-20Z in Saguache, Mineral,
Lake and Chaffee counties. Teller and El Paso counties also have a
better chance of seeing showers and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon, along with much of our eastern plains, especially after
21Z. Models are keeping the I-25 corridor fairly cloudy through most
of the morning, but early clearing could contribute to severe
chances east of I-25 tomorrow. For the most part, tomorrow`s
forecast soundings are showing a risk for severe winds with inverted
v profiles and DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg after 21Z east of the I-
25 corridor. There will be a potential for some small hail to
develop in storms closer to the Kansas border, where CAPE values are
more conducive, but for the most part tomorrow`s risks will be
associated with winds and cloud and cloud to ground lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Key Messages:

1) A wet, unsettled pattern will continue this weekend and into next
week.

2) Confidence continues to increase in regards to more widespread
precipitation, especially over the higher terrain.

3) Weekend temperatures still in flux, but current thoughts have
things trending a bit cooler than guidance suggests.


Friday Night-Monday...

A more wet and unsettled pattern will set in through the long-term
period, starting Friday night into early Saturday as a cold front
pushes across the eastern plains. Westerly flow aloft and pockets of
positive vorticity advection should generate enough lift for showers
to continue into the overnight hours across the high terrain. Mid-
level flow still looks to be fairly weak, so the majority of the
precipitation should stick to the mountains, but cannot rule out a
few showers managing to push east. On Saturday, upslope flow into
our southeast mountains will set in during the afternoon, and warm
daytime temps reaching the mid-80s should provide enough instability
for another round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be
enhanced by another surge of northerly air pushing southwards. Given
the mostly-easterly surface flow and the weak, disorganized steering
flow at the low-mid levels, thunderstorms should mainly stay
confined to the eastern mountains, although a few isolated storms
may form over the southeast plains later in the day. Easterly
upslope flow across the plains will keep widespread precipitation
going throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday. Steering flow at
the mid-levels will increase somewhat as ridging and high pressure
build in over the region aloft, but flow will be generally north-
northwest, which will keep precipitation for Monday afternoon mostly
confined to the higher terrain and maybe the I-25 corridor. With all
of this moisture over the mountains, burn scar flash-flooding will
pose a concern, but as long as we don`t get any heavier raining
storms or long periods of trailing precipitation over any specific
burned areas, the concern will remain low. Temperatures for this
weekend also continue to be in flux, with the suspicion that
guidance is coming in slightly too hot. With all of the moisture in
the area combined with extensive cloud cover, have lowered high
temperatures for Sunday-Monday by several degrees, into the 60s-70s,
and it is possible that highs may drop several more in upcoming
model runs.

Tuesday-Thursday...

Upper-level ridging and high pressure will build into the region
around the middle of next week. This will result in a return to
warmer and drier conditions, although a few daily afternoon
thunderstorms over the mountains will still be possible.
Temperatures will increase back into the 80s-90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022

VFR cigs expected at KCOS and KPUB through tonight with clearing
skies for Thursday.  South to southeast winds 10-20 kts will
gradually decrease this evening then become more diurnally driven
overnight shifting from the west to northwest with speeds under 10
kts.  Winds on Thursday may become briefly breezy from the northwest
to west in the morning before becoming diurnally driven by
afternoon. Thunderstorms over the mountains may send convective
outflow winds into the terminals in the late afternoon and evening
though look too spotty in coverage for a prevailing TS or even VCTS
group at this time.

KALS will see lower end VFR to high end MVFR cigs through this
evening associated with -RA. There is the possibility of some
persistent MVFR cigs overnight at KALS before clouds break Thursday
morning. Kept cigs in the VFR category after 05z for now given low
confidence in lower cigs developing, but this will need to be
monitored for potential TAF amendments. Thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday afternoon and evening at KALS but are more likely
to stay north of the terminal. However a wind shift from the north
with gusts up to 35 kts will be possible from thunderstorm outflows
after 22z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR/KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR/KT