Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/23/22

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKDT Wed Jun 22 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... An upper-level ridge extends from the central Aleutians northeast across the southern half of the state. A weak upper-level wave rotating around an area of low pressure over British Columbia is moving through the Copper River Basin this afternoon. As such, convection has again initiated off of the higher terrain with towering cumulus seen building along the periphery of the basin on visible satellite imagery. For the rest of Southcentral, conditions are generally clear, warm, and dry with the upper-level ridge axis parked overhead. Temperatures from interior Kenai Peninsula to the Mat-Su Valleys are already in the lower to mid 70s as of 1pm. For Southwest, an easterly traversing shortwave riding over top the ridge is continuing its push toward the Middle Kuskokwim Valley. A band of rain showers along the surface trough this morning is beginning to fall apart as the trough weakens. Temperatures across Southwest are cooler today due largely to the increase in clouds cover associated both with this system and with marine stratus lingering across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. This area of low stratus extends westward to blanket most of the eastern half of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. A front associated with the North Pacific low is draped over the western Aleutians. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through the short term. The biggest challenge over the next 24 to 48 hours will be the extent of convective activity across Southcentral as a series of shortwaves move over the top the upper-level ridge. The 18z runs are indicating an area of low to mid-level convergence between northeasterly flow around the low over British Columbia and a transitioning wet-northwesterly flow ahead of the wave moving across Southwest Alaska. Thus, the most recent runs are more bullish on the potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Talkeetnas and Copper River Basin. The 18z NAM, WRF, and HRRR models are also hinting at convective development, perhaps elevated convection based on data from the PANC 12z sounding, this evening over the Susitna Valley. Given this, the afternoon forecast package has been adjusted to include a larger area for isolated thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A westerly sea breeze is expected to develop by midday and will continue through the evening hours. Light and variable winds will return for the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and generally dry conditions are expected across Southcentral through the next several days. The biggest short-term forecast challenge will be the extent of convective activity each afternoon and evening through the end of the week. The most recent hi-res model runs are indicating a stronger area of convergence and lift along the western and southern portions of the Copper River Basin today (Wednesday). As such, there may be a larger expanse of thunderstorm activity through this evening over these locations. Still thinking isolated to widely scattered in nature. There may also be a second area of focus for convective development this evening. Models are now hinting at the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the Susitna Valley this evening. There is also the potential that any activity over this area may be elevated in nature, and could continue into the nighttime hours. Again, activity would be isolated to widely scattered; however, it is a change in thinking from earlier today. Convective activity still looks to be mainly confined to the Copper River Basin for Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect a warming and drying trend through the next several days across Southwest Alaska. Clouds and lower temperatures today in association with a trough will give way to a ridge settling over the region to end the week. Expect widespread 70s, and perhaps a few 80 degree temperatures by Friday or Saturday. Fog and low stratus, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours, may linger for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and southern Bristol Bay region. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Thursday evening)... A building ridge over Southcentral will promote warm, dry conditions. Conditions favoring convective activity seen in the Talkeetna Mountains and Copper River Basin this afternoon are expected to persist into the evening. On Thursday, an upper level wave traverses Southcentral from west to east, bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, particularly over the Copper River Basin. The ridge of high pressure expected to build and remain over Southcentral into the weekend. Marine stratus is present in the Gulf, however coastal impacts not prominent due to general off-shore flow. Gusty conditions seen now from Kamishak Bay to Shelikof Strait and expected to diminish Thursday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... There is a positive tilt ridge axis bisecting southern Alaska this evening. There is a weak trough north of this ridge that will quickly exist the region and then the high builds back even stronger Thursday and Friday. The 576 DAM ridge will be north of Iliamna and Bethel by 12z Friday. The positive height anomalies at 500 mb become very pronounced Friday and Saturday. Expect a warming trend over the interior locations with highs in the upper 70s and possibly lower 80s. Along the coast and Nunivak Island, warm air over cold water is inherently stable so expect areas of fog and low clouds over portions of the AKPEN and in Bristol Bay especially in the mornings. Yesterday, there were over 2,000 lightning strikes in the state of Alaska most of which were in the interior and in the Copper River Basin. This evening there is potential for isolated wet thunderstorms along the Western Alaska Range. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... There is a mature low southwest of Attu Island that will push a front eastward and across the Aleutian chain. The leading edge of the precipitation shield will reach the eastern Aleutians by Friday. Unsettled weather with showers and small craft to gale force winds will move across the Aleutians from west to east. The front will begin to weaken in the vicinity of the Eastern Aleutians by Friday. The longwave trough will linger over the Bering and North Pacific through Sunday, which signals an active pattern for the Bering and the Aleutians. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)... Bering Sea/Aleutians: Weakening low wanders around the Western Bering through Monday. Its front pushes into the Alaska Peninsula by Monday. Forecast confidence is fair with the front`s movement. Gusty Southerly winds across the Alaska Peninsula into the Eastern Bering, diminishing. Seas less than 10 feet, subsiding. Gulf of Alaska: High pressure lingers across the Gulf through Monday. Forecast confidence is good. Generally light winds over the Gulf. Seas mostly 6 feet or less. && .Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)... Upper level ridging is expected to dominate the period from Sunday through Wednesday, especially across Southcentral Alaska eastward towards Canada. The ridge will maintain strength for the first two days of the period before heights begin to fall some for Tuesday and Wednesday. As the heights fall Tuesday and Wednesday, the center of the upper ridge will be moving eastward over the Northwest Territories of Canada. With the ridge still holding fairly strong through this period, any shower/thunderstorm activity looks to be limited due to the subsidence aloft. Any activity looks like it would be mostly confined to the higher terrain. Overall, the odds are favoring above normal temperatures to continue along with below normal precipitation. Similar conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska, however, a decaying (frontolysis) front over the area will keep portions of the Kuskokwim Delta unsettled for Sunday before heights build for Monday through Wednesday. Any shower/thunderstorm activity is favored to be across the higher terrain across Southwest as well. Over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians, an upper level low is expected to remain over the area that will keep the region unsettled. Model guidance generally agrees on low pressure being in the area but diverge on exactly where it will go. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Gale Warning 173 174 175 176 177. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/MV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 .AVIATION... 00Z Issuance...All sites are expected to be VFR through the period. GUY has a thunderstorm currently but should be clearing of that by 00Z. Not expecting storms tomorrow. Winds will be light and somewhat variable overnight but should turn southwesterly by morning with gusts picking up to the 25-30kt range. Beat && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night... Based on GOES-16 water vapor imagery, at the time of this writing, there is a mid to upper level high centered over northeast TX, into OK/AR/LA. A stream of subtropical moisture is coming up through Mexico into NM/CO/KS, as well as portions of the northwest combined Panhandles on the western to northern periphery of the mid to upper level high. Upstream is a small area of low pressure over central CA with another much bigger low over northern British Columbia. This set up is keeping some stronger winds aloft over the central to northern plains states which may induce a leeside low in northern CO/NE area tomorrow. Just last night a small frontal boundary came through the FA and currently winds are still somewhat out of the north and are very light. These winds are eventually going to turn to the SE and pick up to around 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. These upslope winds will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for today. With the plume of moisture over the northwestern half of the FA some showers are still ongoing this morning in the far northwest TX Panhandle and western OK Panhandle. Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will continue to be possible this afternoon into evening mainly in the far northern FA. Worst case scenario would be the possibility of a storm becoming severe in the northeast around Beaver County this evening. The Namnest is showing around 1000 J/Kg of uncapped SBCAPE with DCAPE around 1400 J/Kg. The HRRR only has SBCAPE around 450 J/Kg with some spotty areas of capping. Strong winds will be the main threat if a storm in fact does become severe. Overall, not too concerned with severe storms today in the combined Panhandles as confidence is low. For tomorrow the upper level ridge will strengthen and center more over TX directing any monsoonal moisture up and around the FA to the west and north. The strengthening of the high pressure will also lead to much warmer temperatures with mid to upper 90s across the area. Certain areas such as PDC will most likely hit the low triple digits. There will be just enough of an upper level jet over the central to Northern Great Plains that a leeside low will develop. This will lead to some breezy southwest winds tomorrow afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens to the north. Overall looking dry tomorrow into tomorrow night as far as precipitation goes. Hoffeditz LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday... Friday should be the hottest day in the forecast. While the H5 high position and strength doesn`t really chance much from Thursday, the second day of moderate SW flow should allow temps to increase some 3-6 degrees above Thu values. This will likely place PDC near advisory levels. Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely in some of the drier areas. The far NW could see the tail end of some iso to sct monsoon convection assoc w/ a weak s/wv coming out of a weakness to the west. The center of the H5 high will be held at bay and remain near AR/NRN LA through the weekend. A weak S/WV will cross the Cen Plains early Sat, followed by a much more substantial trough that will traverse the NRN Plains and SRN Canada through Sunday. There is a bit of an H7 theta-e axis in place especially on Saturday, and especially across the north and NW as a cold front moves into the area. This combined with subtle S/WV coming up from the SW out of NM will provide chcs of SHRAs and TSTMs favoring NW zones. Skinny CAPE and weak shear suggest minimal concern for SVR threats. There is a cap noted, but thinking is the front will help break the cap. The front may tend to hang up somewhere in the CWA initially, but it will get a stronger push south as the main trough crosses the NRN plains. Models are not in good agreement on timing of the FROPA with ECMWF and NAM faster than GFS and GEM. Experience tells us to lean toward the faster timing, but the date makes us a little more cautious about that. Sunday and Monday look much cooler by all model accounts in moist post FROPA environment with ENE low level flow. Post frontal SHRAs and possibly a few TSTMs are expected behind the front both days. Again the NW remains favored Sun based on position of the H5 high to the ESE and given better tap into Desert SW overrunning moisture. The high will shift to the WRN US as the aforementioned trough moves east. This will lead to brief period of NW mid-upr level flow on Monday with decent S/WV crossing into the area from the NW. Assoc CHCs for storms favors the west again, but this also might be the best shot for post frontal precip in AMA. Clouds and lingering showers will hold temps down into the 70s and 80s both days. Leaned cooler than NBM toward a slightly cooler CONSALL in collaboration with surrounding offices. QPF forecasts suggest the NW third of the area might average 1/2 to 1" rainfall total over the next 5 days - fingers crossed. Tuesday should be the last cool somewhat moist day as the Monday S/WV very slowly works around the ridge to the NW providing a weakness over the area. Looks like the high center will move east again around mid week, but models are not in good agreement with details on the location. Gittinger && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 16/36
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 No changes needed with this update. The forecast remains on track with a clear and calm night expected. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 No major changes needed to the forecast with this update. Just blended in the latest observations. Diving a bit deeper into our thunderstorm chances late Thursday afternoon and into the evening, there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the southern James River Valley and areas to the south and east. The best synoptic forcing will come from a shortwave that will be well displaced to the north and west, across the northern Rockies and into southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, across the aforementioned risk area, a strongly buoyant atmosphere is expected to develop through the day as diurnal heating and significant low-level moisture advection occurs. The magnitude of instability (MUCAPE reaching as high as 3000-3500 J/kg according to the HREF mean) may be enough to overcome subtle forcing and marginal shear, resulting in isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail as the main threats. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Dry and warm is the theme for the short term, zonal flow will stay dominate through Thursday. This afternoon and evening will continue to be sunny with winds increasing from the southwest mainly in the west, and a few cumulus clouds from diurnal heating. Both the winds and clouds will die down around sunset as the diurnal heating stops. Calm winds and no clouds tonight will assist in radiation cooling, dropping overnight lows into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period. A thermal ridge at 850mb slides back over us along with a south surface wind. This combination will help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s for most areas. Thursday will also be mostly clear, diurnal heating could lead to cumulus clouds developing, but the RAP has mostly dry air over the forecast area. Thursday night the chance of thunderstorms return to the area with a cold front moving in from the west. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 A much more active pattern will setup Friday and Saturday. The main concern is Friday, when we could have severe thunderstorms again. Late Thursday evening the flow aloft starts to turn southwest, with a low pressure digging south through the Pacific Northwest. By Friday afternoon, the flow will be southwest with the trough axis in Montana. Themes a surface cold front associated with this trough that will kick storms off as it sweeps through North Dakota Friday afternoon and evening. The question will be where will storms initiate. Models shows high CAPE values but the atmosphere being capped over much of central North Dakota. While much of the eastern part of the state is not capped. Some models show storms firing just west of the Missouri River in the early afternoon, then again later in the afternoon when the front gets to the better environment around Jamestown and farther east. The main threat with these storms look to be hail and damaging winds. Models have storms forming into a line east of the Missouri River in late afternoon, this would be the most likely time for the damaging wind threat. Storms look to continue through Friday night. With this being two days out still, there is uncertainty will all this. We will be closely monitoring how things evolve. Temperatures Friday will remain warm ahead of the front, with highs in the upper 80s. Behind the cold front in the northwest, highs will only be in the mid 70s. With the eastern movement of the aforementioned low pressure to our north, there is another chance of thunderstorms for the far north on Saturday. There is less confidence in this chance, and no severe storms are expected with this. Saturday looks to be cool and breezy with the cooler wrap around air. High temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs ranging from the mid 60s west to the lower 70s southeast with breezy northwest winds. Northwest flow aloft then takes over on Sunday until a shortwave ridge starts to move in late Wednesday. Sunday through the mid week temperatures warm up again with another thermal ridge at 850mb. Temperatures could reach into the mid 80s again by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 VFR conditions through the period with relatively light and variable winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Gale SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...Gale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
851 PM MST Wed Jun 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Showers and storms are expected across the majority of northern Arizona and through the next several days. This early monsoon pattern is forecast to stick around through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as well. Gusty winds, localized heavy rainfall, and potentially new fire starts due to lightning are the main concerns through the next 7 days. && .UPDATE...Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the high country this evening but storm motions have kept them moving and they continue to weaken as we head into the late evening hours and the instability starts to wane. Outflow boundaries can still be seen on radar but appear to be much less robust than they were at this time yesterday and aside from a brief increase in wind, shouldn`t cause any problems tonight. Skies should clear more tonight and temperatures will be be cooler than they were last night. Some adjustments were made to the forecast to better capture where the precipitation is occurring along with some minor updates to temperatures and sky cover. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /403 PM MST/...The forecast focus through the next 7 days is the daily potential for monsoon convection across the region. Synoptically, the influences from a closed low over Southern California is both allowing for the advection of moisture and providing mid and upper level energy across the desert Southwest, including much of Arizona. This low should evolve into an open shortwave and exit to the north of the area through Thursday and Friday, allowing a more traditional H5 ridge to build across the Southwest. Looking at the 12Z HREF and latest HRRR runs, robust convection is depicted across much of the CWA Thursday, but lacking strong QPF signals, likely due to the very dry low level moisture environment. This is evident just in PWAT gradients alone, but clearly seen in forecast soundings from northern Arizona compared to central or southern parts of the state. Interestingly, GEFS/EC PWAT increases to a point today, but stays along our southern CWA border through the next several days...likely due to the building ridge and no notable feature to steer moisture farther north at a synoptic level. This will probably act to reduce convective coverage overall after Friday, but not to a large degree as daytime heating and the moisture in place will be enough to convect each afternoon, especially across the typical high terrain areas. As noted in the previous discussion, monsoon is great news for many, but comes with several hazards that will be relevant to all through the next week at least. These would include...lightning, gusty outflow winds, and potential for flash flooding. Stay alert near burn scars and slot canyons. Just because rain is not falling directly on you, does not mean rain is not occurring upstream and could lead to flood/debris flowing toward you. Avoid flooded roadways and never drive into low-water crossings. Stay tuned to our social media pages (Twitter & Facebook) and weather forecasts prior to traveling during potentially hazardous conditions. && .AVIATION....For the 06Z TAF package...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except in and near showers and thunderstorms. Mainly light and variable winds around 10 knots or less increasing out of the southwest around 10 to 20 knots after 18Z. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near thunderstorms, mainly occurring after 18Z with the highest coverage east of a KFLG- Four Corners line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue across the entire region Thursday and Friday. Winds outside of storm activity will be less than 15 mph, with gusty and erratic winds in and near storms. Saturday through Monday...Light winds with continued daily chances for thunderstorms. Lightning, gusty outflow winds, and possible flash flooding with these storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/VEF AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Messages: 1)Continued chances for rainfall possible tonight, especially along western facing slopes of the San Juan Mountains. 2) Rain showers pushing off the southern Sangres and into portions of the southern I-25 corridor and eastern plains tonight. 3) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible for tomorrow. Currently.. Cloud cover has done a nice job of inhibiting daytime convection. Rain cooled air has kept daytime highs in the 70s across our far eastern plains, where we`re still seeing some rain showers in portions of Baca, Prowers and Kiowa counties. As of 2pm local time, still not seeing any lightning in our forecast area, with only a few strikes out in far southwestern Colorado. Tonight.. Deterministic models are showing increasing confidence in moderate to heavy rainfall over the San Juans and southern Sangres continuing into this evening. The HRRR and the Canadian have both kept rain fairly stratiform in nature as it pushes off of the southern Sangres and into the southern I-25 corridor later this evening, which seems to have played out nicely. Given the abundance of cloud cover still sitting over the forecast area, thinking this trend will continue to with scattered chances for light rain showers possible generally south of highway 50 until about 02-04Z. Tomorrow.. Tomorrow`s daytime high temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesdays, with most of the plains getting well into the nineties. Our pattern for Thursday remains generally the same, with a high pressure center to our southeast and an upper trough over the Great Basin. This setup will continue to advect moisture into our forecast area for Thursday. Both the NAM nest and the HRRR are showing showers moving more west to east tomorrow along a disturbance within the monsoon plume. Shower and thunderstorm development look to kick off around 18-20Z in Saguache, Mineral, Lake and Chaffee counties. Teller and El Paso counties also have a better chance of seeing showers and embedded thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, along with much of our eastern plains, especially after 21Z. Models are keeping the I-25 corridor fairly cloudy through most of the morning, but early clearing could contribute to severe chances east of I-25 tomorrow. For the most part, tomorrow`s forecast soundings are showing a risk for severe winds with inverted v profiles and DCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg after 21Z east of the I- 25 corridor. There will be a potential for some small hail to develop in storms closer to the Kansas border, where CAPE values are more conducive, but for the most part tomorrow`s risks will be associated with winds and cloud and cloud to ground lightning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Key Messages: 1) A wet, unsettled pattern will continue this weekend and into next week. 2) Confidence continues to increase in regards to more widespread precipitation, especially over the higher terrain. 3) Weekend temperatures still in flux, but current thoughts have things trending a bit cooler than guidance suggests. Friday Night-Monday... A more wet and unsettled pattern will set in through the long-term period, starting Friday night into early Saturday as a cold front pushes across the eastern plains. Westerly flow aloft and pockets of positive vorticity advection should generate enough lift for showers to continue into the overnight hours across the high terrain. Mid- level flow still looks to be fairly weak, so the majority of the precipitation should stick to the mountains, but cannot rule out a few showers managing to push east. On Saturday, upslope flow into our southeast mountains will set in during the afternoon, and warm daytime temps reaching the mid-80s should provide enough instability for another round of showers and thunderstorms. These will be enhanced by another surge of northerly air pushing southwards. Given the mostly-easterly surface flow and the weak, disorganized steering flow at the low-mid levels, thunderstorms should mainly stay confined to the eastern mountains, although a few isolated storms may form over the southeast plains later in the day. Easterly upslope flow across the plains will keep widespread precipitation going throughout the day on Sunday and into Monday. Steering flow at the mid-levels will increase somewhat as ridging and high pressure build in over the region aloft, but flow will be generally north- northwest, which will keep precipitation for Monday afternoon mostly confined to the higher terrain and maybe the I-25 corridor. With all of this moisture over the mountains, burn scar flash-flooding will pose a concern, but as long as we don`t get any heavier raining storms or long periods of trailing precipitation over any specific burned areas, the concern will remain low. Temperatures for this weekend also continue to be in flux, with the suspicion that guidance is coming in slightly too hot. With all of the moisture in the area combined with extensive cloud cover, have lowered high temperatures for Sunday-Monday by several degrees, into the 60s-70s, and it is possible that highs may drop several more in upcoming model runs. Tuesday-Thursday... Upper-level ridging and high pressure will build into the region around the middle of next week. This will result in a return to warmer and drier conditions, although a few daily afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains will still be possible. Temperatures will increase back into the 80s-90s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 22 2022 VFR cigs expected at KCOS and KPUB through tonight with clearing skies for Thursday. South to southeast winds 10-20 kts will gradually decrease this evening then become more diurnally driven overnight shifting from the west to northwest with speeds under 10 kts. Winds on Thursday may become briefly breezy from the northwest to west in the morning before becoming diurnally driven by afternoon. Thunderstorms over the mountains may send convective outflow winds into the terminals in the late afternoon and evening though look too spotty in coverage for a prevailing TS or even VCTS group at this time. KALS will see lower end VFR to high end MVFR cigs through this evening associated with -RA. There is the possibility of some persistent MVFR cigs overnight at KALS before clouds break Thursday morning. Kept cigs in the VFR category after 05z for now given low confidence in lower cigs developing, but this will need to be monitored for potential TAF amendments. Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening at KALS but are more likely to stay north of the terminal. However a wind shift from the north with gusts up to 35 kts will be possible from thunderstorm outflows after 22z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR/KT LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...EHR/KT