Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/21/22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
710 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Key Messages: - Record warm lows possible tonight - Hot and humid tomorrow with afternoon storm chances RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Highly amplified large scale pattern over the CONUS will begin to breakdown as the longwave trough over the western U.S. lifts northeast. The ridge will then flatten and become more zonal spreading across much of the CONUS. This will allow the frontal zone across the Dakotas to being to shift east tonight, arriving Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front tonight, the eastern edge of the low- level moisture transport gradient will approach allowing for some storm chances. This may be in the form of decaying storms from further west or some elevated initiation in what is a rather dry environment. With weak deep shear, marginal elevated instability aloft if saturation occurs, and capped low-level instability, these would be garden-variety summer storms. Have left a very small chance of precipitation west/north of La Crosse overnight. Otherwise, a few clouds and southerly winds continue pre-frontally. Overnight "warm" lows could be record setting for June 21 with both KRST and KLSE @ 72F set in 1943 - and the forecast is for lows around 75F HOT TOMORROW WITH CHANCE FOR STORMS: Another hot and humid day is on tap tomorrow, especially for northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin. As the cold front continues to propagate southeast across the forecast area tomorrow, locations in the southeastern half of the forecast area are forecast to remain cloud free (20.12 HREF) and will have plenty of time to heat up with high temperatures in the mid 90`s. A ribbon of 70+ degree dew points will be found on the leading edge of the front, helping heat index values range from the upper 98 to 107 degrees. Thunderstorm chances increase later in the afternoon after daytime heating has enough time to weaken the cap that will prohibit storms to initiate earlier in the day. If it is able to do so before the front moves east of the forecast area, most unstable CAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg (20.12 HREF mean) could be realized. Shear is not favorable but isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially in far southwest Wisconsin. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats, but again there is still plenty of uncertainty regrading convective initiation. The convective allowing models favor initiation east of the local area. LOOKING AHEAD: Above average temperatures continue through the work week as the Upper Mississippi Valley stays on the warm side of broad, low amplitude ridging. A shortwave is progged to traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin on Wednesday which will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 80`s, otherwise high temperatures in the mid to upper 80`s are supported by the NBM and EPS members. Precipitation chances increase heading into the weekend, although details are still uncertain. Ensemble data and QPF cluster analysis supports the best chance for precipitation across the region being Friday through Saturday driven by shortwave disturbances in southwesterly flow aloft. A return to more seasonable temperatures looks to follow the precipitation chances this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 VFR conditions are current forecast through the period. A cold front from KHON to KVTN to the west will move into the region later tonight and Tuesday. A hot and humid airmass is in place and will limit storms until stronger forcing is realized. The organized convection should be north of the area tonight, however there is a hint that isolated pre-frontal storms may try to develop 09-11Z with the increasing low level jet and moisture pooling. Due to low confidence of occurrence at the TAF sites, will include a vcsh for now. The ensembles push the precipitation east of the TAF sites during the afternoon, however the RAP and a few deterministic models linger the moisture with some storm potential through mid afternoon. South winds 10 to 18kt with gusts 20 to 30kts continue with the stronger winds/gusts at RST. The winds shift to the southwest, then west and northwest through Tuesday. Do mention low level wind shear at both sites mostly between 06-12Z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ017-029-032>034- 041. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ042>044- 053>055-061. MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ011-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...KAA/Baumgardt AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 On the larger synoptic scale this Monday afternoon, the latest water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed the center of a large mid-upper tropospheric high centered across the lower-mid Mississippi Valley with large scale anticyclonic mid level flow from Texas through the Central the Upper Midwest south to the Gulf Coast region. A fairly deep mid level trough was centered over the Northern Rockies with very good downstream, deep tropospheric lift out ahead of this feature across the Northern High Plains. Western Kansas was positioned in between these two synoptic scale features with fairly deep tropospheric south-southwest flow. Weak boundary layer convergence was analyzed from southeast Colorado into adjacent far west-central Kansas, and this will be the focus for continued (already underway mid this afternoon) thunderstorm development/maintenance across this region. There will not likely be much in the way of eastward progression of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening, which is the reason 20-30 POPs will remain out west through tonight into the first part of Tuesday. This is also where the deeper layer moist plume will remain, and the lack of an elevated mixed layer will result into isolated to widely scattered showers through the night into the early-mid morning hours Tuesday. This particular pattern has some early monsoon season character to it with a deep moist layer extending south-southwest through New Mexico into northern Mexico. Heading into Tuesday, a polar front will move south across western Kansas in the morning, but once several hours of insolation work on the lower troposphere, the front near the surface will slow its forward progression and eventually stall out. Given the lack of an elevated mixed layer/cap, weak convergence along the subtle polar front will probably be enough for at least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity. We should see temperatures similar to that of today along/south of the front on Tuesday, but areas north and west on Tuesday will see anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees of temperature knocked off of this afternoon`s temperatures. Given weak wind shear on Tuesday, severe weather risk will be very low, with the SPC Day Two Marginal Risk area confined to mainly northeastern Kansas and points north and east from there into the Midwest. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The polar front that will come down and stall out on Tuesday will likely maintain at least some integrity on Wednesday...and be positioned a bit farther south...such that more areas of southwest Kansas will see increased low level moisture and relative humidity on post-frontal easterly upslope component wind. The latest NBM POPs for Wednesday afternoon has 20-40 POPs across much of the DDC CWA with highest north of the Arkansas River to the I-70 corridor where better moisture will reside. As mentioned in the Short Term section, much of the western Kansas region will be within a sort of monsoon circulation regime on the north/northwest periphery of the 500-700mb anticyclone. By Thursday, west-southwesterly flow in the 300-500mb layer will increase enough such that the leeside trough will redevelop, effectively dissolving whatever is left of the old polar front. Thursday continues to be forecast hot across southwest Kansas as a result, along with a decrease in thunderstorm chances. On Friday, the downslope hot plume will reach a crescendo and really expand northeast across southwest Kansas. The latest ECMWF 850mb prog shows a 00Z Saturday temperature of +32C which would support widespread afternoon temperatures of 103 to 106F. It appears the humidity will likely be low enough to keep heat indices below 105F, however. Saturday and beyond, we will see a break from the heat. A fairly strong storm system will track across southern Canada and the adjacent Northern Plains with an anomalously cool airmass in its wake, waiting to be driven south on a rather strong north wind. The timing of the front Saturday is still very much in question, which is why Saturday`s temperature forecast is still quite tricky. However, by Sunday, there is very good agreement among all three major global deterministic models of a very cool airmass in place across all of western and central Kansas. The latest NBM has an afternoon high of 84F both Sunday and Monday next week. Given how cool this airmass will be, and the increased precipitation chances, it may not even escape the 70s across some areas of our forecast area (both Sunday AND Monday of next week!) && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts of midlevel clouds. A weak cold front across far NW Kansas as of 03z Tue will make progress southeast through SW KS through this forecast period. Winds will be much lighter through Tuesday compared to recent days, and gradually trend light northerly through 00z Wed as the boundary passes the terminals. The frontal boundary is expected to act as a focus for scattered thunderstorm development, mainly during the 00-06z Wed time range. There is uncertainty regarding coverage and placement, with weak forcing and weak instability. As such, only included a VCTS/CB/VCSH mention in the TAFs for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 96 67 93 / 10 30 30 20 GCK 68 94 64 91 / 20 30 40 20 EHA 68 90 63 91 / 30 30 30 20 LBL 69 94 65 94 / 10 20 30 10 HYS 71 94 67 86 / 20 20 30 40 P28 73 100 71 95 / 10 20 30 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Summary: Hot and humid conditions continue tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over central and north-central Minnesota tonight and may affect the remainder of the Northland before sunrise Tuesday morning. Temperatures trend cooler starting Tuesday with periodic shower and storm chances later this week into the weekend. A high-amplitude ridge axis stretched from northwest Ontario into southeast Missouri this afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure was centered over northwest Ontario with a cold front extending southwest to a secondary low near Aberdeen, SD to a third low center near Sidney, NE. Thunderstorms have developed along and either side of the boundary in the past few hours as far south as northwest Kansas. Meanwhile elevated convection has begun to percolate over north-central Minnesota in a zone of 800- 700 mb convergence ahead of a northward moving shortwave trough. The trough axis was roughly from near Fargo to northern Iowa and was visualized well in the GOES-East Band 8 upper-level water vapor imagery. The elevated showers should slowly migrate northward through 21.01Z. I don`t expect those showers to pose much risk of severe weather. The 20Z SPC RAP analysis shows 2000- 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE with almost no MLCIN remaining. However, even with the mid-level height falls, there appears to be insufficient convergence and forcing for ascent to support surface-based convection east of the cold front at this point. Effective bulk shear is maximized to the west of the front and marginal over central and north-central Minnesota this afternoon. Look for showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous near the cold front and eventually grow upscale into one or more MCSes. South-southwesterly steering flow oriented parallel to the front will support this upscale growth and a general storm motion to the north-northeast. These MCSes will bring a potential for damaging wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph. The effective shear will increase later tonight as the front pushes eastward and a south-southwesterly low-level jet develops. If a few storms develop ahead of the main lines, they may produce large hail, perhaps as large as golf balls. SPC upgraded portions of central and north-central Minnesota to an "Enhanced" Risk of severe storms, mainly focused on that damaging wind risk tonight and early Tuesday morning. The uncomfortable heat indices will continue into this evening for the Northland, and perhaps overnight in northwest Wisconsin. Did not make changes to the expiration time of the Heat Advisory this afternoon and will let the evening shift trim it as temperatures cool tonight. The cold front will progress slowly eastward overnight and will likely be over the Arrowhead to central Minnesota to northwest Iowa by 12Z Tuesday and will move through northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon. A few storms may linger through the night and into Tuesday morning, weakening as they move out of the Northland by late morning. Heat and humidity will be a concern for portions of northwest Wisconsin Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices in the middle 90s. If showers end earlier and skies remain clear over those areas, dangerous heat will be possible ahead of the front on Tuesday. Elsewhere on Tuesday temperatures will trend cooler with less humidity. Continued cooler on Wednesday with highs in the 70s and low 80s. A progressive upper-level pattern is expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend. There will be additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for at least portions of the Northland each day Thursday through next Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Storms are developing over the Red River Valley and advancing east northeast. These storms have the potential to produce damaging winds and severe hail. As the storms move east they are expected to weaken over time. A low level jet is expected to ramp up this evening and may impact BRD/HYR. After the storms pass gusty winds out of the west will ramp up in the morning hours. Additionally, there are some hints of some MVFR ceilings filtering in over INL tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Southwesterly winds will continue tonight at around 5 to 15 kt, strongest along the immediate shorelines particularly near the Twin Ports. Winds will remain southwest through Tuesday with some stronger gusts up to around 25 kt possible especially near the Twin Ports and the Apostle Islands, which may be hazardous for small craft. Wind speeds will lessen a bit Tuesday night. Areas of fog may be possible at times, especially tonight, along with chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 71 85 58 77 / 40 10 0 0 INL 66 81 53 74 / 60 30 30 0 BRD 71 85 58 81 / 40 0 0 0 HYR 73 90 58 79 / 30 20 0 0 ASX 72 91 60 78 / 30 20 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001>004-006>009. MN...Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018-019-025- 026-033>038. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
605 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Still expecting widespread SHRA and TSRA coverage expected this evening and overnight, causing temporary IFR conditions at local airfields. Broken convection through the evening will bring off- and-on IFR/MVFR VIS and gusts up to 30 knots. Widespread RA overnight across much of S NM with BKN-OVC050, with CIGs lowering to ~SCT020 by morning. Conditions not expected to clear up that much early Tuesday. Another round of rain showers are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION...214 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .SYNOPSIS... Heavy rain and flash flooding will remain possible today and tomorrow. Highs will be well below normal. Starting Wednesday, thunderstorms will become more isolated with best chances over area mountains. Highs will recover back to seasonal normal values. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... The ingredients for a widespread rain event are in place today as a plume of deep moisture becomes fixed directly over much of New Mexico and far west Texas. Water vapor imagery shows this plume of moisture set within south flow stuck between upper high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley and an upper trough progressing across the northern Rockies. Mesoanalysis shows precipitable water in excess of 1.0" along the International Border, steadily increasing throughout the afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid-50`s have also remained quite high as the day advances. Plenty of available moisture will increase the risk of localized flooding area wide this evening, especially for locations with poor drainage and mountain burn scars. Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of the forecast area, beginning this afternoon and running through Wednesday morning. Latest CAMs show convection rapidly developing very shortly this evening, with a mostly scattered "airmass" storm type. Storm coverage will continue to expand tonight, encompassing much of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates and localized areas of 1-2 inches in an hour. Gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph is also likely in a few areas which may kick up some dust along the I-10 corridor early this evening. Rain showers will shift northward Tuesday morning, exiting the area and giving us a brief reprieve in the early afternoon. Additional storms are expected to form during the afternoon hours, once again covering the majority of the region. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm potential tomorrow afternoon as we do need a window of sunshine and dry conditions to re-destabilize the atmosphere. I do believe that will happen, but worth watching in case rain showers hang around well into the late morning. && .LONG TERM... The long term takes over Tuesday evening/night with thunderstorms expected to be ongoing. There is some uncertainty to start the period on coverage/placement of storms Tuesday night. The GFS/NAM/NAM Nest begins to push heavier rain into the western half of the CWA while the Euro and the 12z HRRR keeps the moisture plume centered over the CWA. The 18z favors the Euro as well, but with lesser coverage. The current flash flood watch expiration looks good, but may require adjustments after we get through this first round of thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, drier air begins to move in from the southeast, and this will end the heavy rain threat except for isolated incidents as well as decrease shower and thunderstorm coverage for the afternoon. The moisture plume will shift to areas near or to the west of the AZ border, but dewpoints are expected to remain near 50 for much of the area. Although coverage will greatly decrease, it will be difficult to shut down precip chances entirely, especially for the mountains. The driest air arrives Friday into Saturday. The GFS brings sub-40 dewpoints, but the Euro keeps moisture in the picture until Sunday when it imports a small area of dry air. The GFS has this pocket of dry air too, but not in the same location. Finally for next Monday, the GFS and Euro offer two different scenarios entirely. The Euro keeps a portion of the ridge anchored over NM with relatively dry air in place. The GFS breaks down the ridge and allows a system to move in on northwest flow creating the opportunity for more heavy rain and given pattern recognition, probably a few strong to severe storms. Temperatures will rebound to levels typical of late June with El Paso possibly adding to its 100 degree day tally by late in the week. If the GFS verifies, highs will go back down below normal as clouds and rain keep things cooler. If the Euro verifies, seasonal temperatures will continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wetting rains and some much-needed relief from fire weather conditions are expected this week as a Pacific low scoops deep Gulf moisture into the region ahead of high pressure across the Southern Plains. The highest rain totals are likely to favor areas right along the Continental Divide and western New Mexico with widespread 3-day totals in excess of 2 inches. Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies will promote better RH, with midday values 40-50% and excellent overnight recoveries (75-85%). 20-ft winds from the SE will lead to Fair smoke ventilation on Tuesday. Thunderstorm outflows may disrupt this prevailing flow, however. The primary hazard with storms this week will be flooding given the anonymously high moisture profiles. High rain rates and the potential for training storms will pose a risk of flash flooding, especially for locations with poor drainage. Runoff is likely over burn scars with any precipitation amounts greater than 0.50". Rain chances will become more limited to western New Mexico late in the week with the plume of moisture shifting toward Arizona. Widespread 7-day QPF of 1.00-2.00" of rainfall will likely be enough to put an end to this very active fire weather season. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 86 71 93 / 90 70 50 10 Sierra Blanca 67 86 68 89 / 70 40 20 0 Las Cruces 66 82 66 89 / 90 80 70 20 Alamogordo 63 81 65 89 / 80 70 40 20 Cloudcroft 49 61 48 67 / 90 80 40 30 Truth or Consequences 65 76 66 84 / 70 90 80 50 Silver City 62 74 63 78 / 70 90 90 60 Deming 64 81 65 88 / 80 80 80 30 Lordsburg 65 81 65 86 / 50 70 70 40 West El Paso Metro 69 85 71 91 / 90 70 60 10 Dell City 67 90 67 93 / 70 40 20 0 Fort Hancock 68 91 69 96 / 80 40 40 0 Loma Linda 64 81 66 86 / 90 60 40 10 Fabens 68 89 70 94 / 90 50 50 0 Santa Teresa 66 83 67 89 / 90 70 60 20 White Sands HQ 69 81 71 88 / 90 70 60 30 Jornada Range 64 79 66 86 / 90 80 70 30 Hatch 65 79 67 86 / 90 80 70 40 Columbus 66 82 68 88 / 80 80 80 20 Orogrande 66 83 68 89 / 90 70 50 20 Mayhill 53 72 52 78 / 90 70 40 20 Mescalero 51 71 52 76 / 90 80 50 30 Timberon 51 71 52 76 / 90 70 40 20 Winston 57 69 58 76 / 70 90 90 60 Hillsboro 62 75 63 81 / 80 90 80 50 Spaceport 63 76 63 84 / 80 80 70 40 Lake Roberts 55 76 56 80 / 60 90 80 60 Hurley 60 78 61 83 / 60 80 80 50 Cliff 54 85 52 88 / 40 80 80 50 Mule Creek 60 80 60 82 / 30 80 70 60 Faywood 62 76 63 81 / 70 90 80 50 Animas 64 84 64 88 / 60 70 80 40 Hachita 64 82 64 86 / 70 80 80 40 Antelope Wells 62 83 63 86 / 70 80 80 40 Cloverdale 61 80 62 84 / 60 80 70 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ402-403-407>417. TX...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for TXZ418>420-423. && $$ 99/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
443 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 259 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows as southwesterly flow over the CWA being between an upper air trough to the west and an upper air ridge to the east. Current satellite imagery shows high clouds over the CO counties of the CWA and those adjacent while there are fields of popcorn cumulus clouds developing in the remainder of the area due to daytime heating. Models show this flow continuing through the remainder of the day with a shortwave disturbance passing through the flow during the evening hours. At the surface, surface low is seen over the western NE/northeastern CO area which is causing south-southwesterly winds across the CWA with gusts up to around 40 mph. Isolated pulse thunderstorms look to be possible for a good portion of the CWA for the rest of this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Effective bulk shear looks to be rather low though a little higher than yesterday around 20 kts in portions of the CWA. MLCAPE though looks to be pretty low across the CWA today with values around 500 J/kg or less. However, model forecast soundings show another day of an inverted-V shape with DCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. Due to this, storms that occur today have the potential to produce a downburst wind gust up to around 65 mph similar to yesterday though there looks to be better coverage today for this potential for areas in the region east of line from Cheyenne Wells to Bird City. QPF looks to be a few hundredths of an inch at most with maybe a tenth or two in some locations. Around midnight, a cold front looks to begin to make its way into the CWA from the northwest. Daytime highs currently look to be between the lower 90s and lower 100s with tonight seeing low temperatures between the middle 50s and upper 60s. On Tuesday, models show the southwesterly flow continuing with the trough moving northeast past the CWA with a cutoff low developing over central CA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this pattern will help bring in the monsoonal moisture from the southwest into the region. At the surface, the cold front looks to pass through the area during the morning and there looks to be chances for showers and thunderstorms for southern portions of the CWA during the afternoon that spread over the remainder of the CWA going into the overnight hours. Model forecast soundings do not show very good convective parameter numbers, so it does not look like severe weather can be anticipated especially with a decent cap in place. Winds look to be lighter than the first few days of the week and while there are some minimum RH values in the upper teens in the northwestern quadrant, fire weather does not look to be a concern at this moment. Daytime high temperatures look to be between the lower 80s and lower 90s followed by overnight lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s. For Wednesday, forecast guidance shows the CWA taking a more west- southwesterly flow aloft with an upper air high building over OK during the day placing the CWA in the top part of an upper air ridge. There is a shortwave disturbance seen passing through the flow over the CWA during the late afternoon/evening hours. At the surface, models show a chances of precipitation across the CWA for most of the day thanks to a surface low forming in the over the CO/WY border. Convective parameters seen in the latest model forecast sounding look a bit more promising for severe weather potential with surface CAPE approaching 1500 J/kg around 00Z. Will be continuing to monitor this in upcoming forecasts to see if this sign continues in future model runs. High temperatures on Tuesday range between the lower and upper 80s followed by overnight lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Long range guidance suggests that ridging aloft will prevail over the southern CONUS through the weekend.. and that the mid- latitude westerlies will be confined to higher latitudes (> 40N). With the Tri-State area situated on the far southern periphery of the westerlies -- forecast confidence is below average -- particularly w/regard to precipitation chances. Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the remainder of the work-week. A cooling trend is anticipated this weekend.. though the extent/degree of cooling may highly depend upon the evolution of upstream convection (and associated airmass modification -- i.e. evaporative cooling) in the lee of the northern Rockies. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 443 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There will be a couple of hours 00z-02z Tuesday with VCTS. Winds, south-southwest 15-30kts through 04z Tuesday, then west-southwest 10-15kts. By 08z, becoming north-northwest 10-15kts, shifting to the south by 19z. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions with several hours of VCTS potential from 01z-08z Tuesday. Winds, south-southwest 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts possible. By 05z, becoming west around 10kts then shifting northwest by 08z Tuesday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1037 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the midweek period with persistent ridge to the west. Low rain chances late week into the weekend as surface troughing and offshore upper low lingers in the area. && .UPDATE... Increased the cloud cover overnight, mainly from mid and high level moisture streaming southward from upstream, out of Canada. Some very minor tweaks applied to winds/temps/dewpoints based on latest trends and HRRR output. Airmass at the sfc still dry and "cool" when compared to late last week. 3 record lows set at CRE, FLO and LBT for this Mon morning lows. See the various RERs issued. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A highly amplified ridge across the MS valley today will help keep the column mostly dry with meager PWATs in place. This pattern doesn`t change much tonight through Tuesday and plan to continue a dry forecast, especially with moisture and instability lacking. Some mid/high clouds will likely continue to spill around the ridge axis during this time with partly cloudy skies prevailing - and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies at times. High temperatures will only be very slightly warmer on Tuesday compared to today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With mid to upper ridge just to the west, warming trend continues into mid week. Low temps Tuesday night only slightly below normal in the upper 60s. Wednesday is currently the warmest day in the forecast as 850 temps top out around 22C. High temps forecasted near 100F inland, with low to mid 90s near the coast. Thankfully dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s, away from immediate coast, and so not expecting heat advisory conditions at this time. A weak surface low develops near the Carolinas late Wednesday, with a wind shift the only expected sensible weather. Elongated upper trough off the East Coast attempts to split late Wednesday, with a cutoff low lingering off the southeast coast into the weekend. Increase in clouds Wednesday night as PWATs increase will aid in low temps in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low level troughing inland Thursday translates offshore Friday, with coastal trough/weak low lingering into the weekend. Temperatures remain well above normal Thursday as mid level ridging begins to be pushed westward. High temps in the upper 90s inland and low 90s for coastal counties. With increase in dewpoints to upper 60s to low 70s, Thursday will feel muggier than Wednesday with heat indices in the triple digits. Slightly above normal temps continue Friday into the weekend. Low end diurnal pops enter the forecast Thursday through the weekend with surface trough/weak low nearby and increase in PWATs. Weak subsidence in the mid levels evident in the soundings keeps pops capped around 25%. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions to dominate the 24 hr 00Z TAF Issuance Period. SCT to BKN mid/high level clouds will continue to drop south across the area, mainly in the 15k to 25k foot height. However, time height series indicate 10k to 15kt foot cloud decks will dominate during the pre-dawn Tue thru late morning Tue, could even observe FEW/SCT 8k-9k foot altocu decks mainly across the inland terminals. Sea breeze somewhat pinned this evening and should scour out several hrs after sunset. Otherwise, expect variable wind 3 kt or less overnight, however will identify a "best" direction in lieu of going vrbl. Winds after sunrise, generally NW-NE 6 kt, becoming ESE-SSE 10 kt at the coastal terminals from midday on, due to the sea breeze. Extended Outlook...VFR through the extended period except for a periodic MVFR from showers associated with the passage of a weak cold front or sfc trof Thu night into Fri. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Weak high pressure over the waters will result in light flow that will mainly be modulated by the seabreeze early this evening, then again during Tuesday afternoon. Benign boating conditions are expected as well resulting from the anemic pressure gradient with seas generally around 2 ft through the near term period. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Southwest winds 10-15 kts Wednesday increase a little Wednesday night as a surface trough strengthens inland. Winds shift to southeasterly around 10 kts Thursday, with more varied directions late Thursday into Friday as trough shifts offshore and lingers near the coast. ENE winds forecasted for late Friday through Saturday. Seas 2 ft Wed increases to 3-4 ft overnight as building SW wind wave mixes with 8 sec SE swell. 3-4 ft seas linger Thursday through Saturday as wave spectrum translates from SSW wind wave dominant to E swell dominant late Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VAO UPDATE...DCH NEAR TERM...SRP SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...DCH MARINE...VAO/SRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The upper level low across swrn WY featuring -20C h700mb air will lift northeast through MT tonight. The Recd jet will send a cold front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The POP forecast tonight leans on the short term model blend for chance POPs, mainly across nrn Nebraska. Storm development farther south will compete with a 14C h700mb cap. As for severe weather potential, winds aloft are strong and unidirectional favoring storm splitting. The upper level low will cause modest cooling aloft across nwrn Nebraska with h700mb temps falling to around -10C. Little or no cooling aloft is expected elsewhere. Lapse rates throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska are marginal and the culprit is a subtropical plume of moisture causing a moist adiabatic profiles from h500-300mb. This is limiting instability. The RAP model suggests the shear may be too strong relative to the CAPE for severe weather. The best guess for severe weather would be a wind/hail capable storm or two across the northwest late this afternoon as suggested by the CAMS. Some are suggesting an outflow dominant cluster of strong storms across ncntl Nebraska later this evening. The upper low lifts into Canada during the day Tuesday and this should shunt the subtropical moisture plume south into KS. There is a slight chance the plume cold lift back north Tuesday night and slight chance POPs are in place across swrn Nebraska. This forecast is supported mostly by the SREF and less so by the HREF and NAMnest. The GFS and ECM don`t support a rain chance at all. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 The main forecast interest in the extended is the 2-day heatwave Thursday and Friday followed by a cold front and thunderstorm chance Friday night. The models are in very good agreement building the subtropical ridge across the Matzoth west into Texas while an upper low drops south along the CA coast. H700mb temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska warm to 12C-14C supporting highs in the 90s to near 100F both days. Humidity remains low with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s which is surprising since the SREF suggests precipitable water between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. An upper level disturbance will swing through the nrn Plains Friday night and interact with a plume of subtropical moisture. POPs for this event are just 30 to 40 percent which is modest considering the ECM and GFS suggest the moisture plume is rich. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 A cold front has moved past KVTN and is forecast to pass KLBF near 05Z. Northwest winds behind the front will gust to near 25KT tonight. Isolated thunderstorms across north central Nebraska will be VCTS at KLBF through 03Z. Other isolated storms possible at KLBF vicinity 03Z-05Z. Stronger storms may cause gusty, erratic winds, lower ceilings, and brief drops in visibility, but outside of the storms conditions should remain VFR. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007-010-027>029- 038. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 ...New AVIATION... See 00z aviation discussion below. .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Showers and thunderstorms will be near or impact CNM, HOB, PEQ, and INK this evening and possibly through the overnight hours. It is possible that low ceilings will impact CNM tonight. Gusty southeast winds will weaken tonight with some variability. Winds will once again strengthen out of the southeast tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Current radar is showing scattered showers and storms developing in the Davis Mountains as well as northern Lea County. Hi-Res models are showing this activity will expand to include much of the area west of the Pecos River and continue well into tonight. The RAP is particularly aggressive in developing precipitation and spreading it east but it is an outlier with most keeping the rain in orographically favored locations. We are now transitioning from severe weather season to summer airmass/monsoonal type storms so the risk of large hail or strong winds is diminishing with the threat now shifting to flash flooding, especially in the mountains. The Guadalupe Mountains received impressive amounts of rain yesterday so there is a concern for flooding there as well as low water crossings farther east into the lower elevations of Eddy County. Upper level high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will build farther west tomorrow as indicated by 500mb heights increasing from 591 to 594dam. This will increase subsidence and decrease the amount of convection expected tomorrow. The most likely area to receive rain will again be the Guadalupe Mountains the PoPs will be lower and any flooding threat very isolated. The high pressure system will also help push afternoon highs tomorrow up a degree or two. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Monsoonal moisture will gradually decrease through mid-week as the upper ridge builds westward, becoming centered across the southern Plains by 12z Thursday. A few stay isolated thunderstorms or two are possible across far northwestern Eddy County each afternoon this week, otherwise the area looks to stay dry through the weekend. Increasing heights/thickness as the ridge pivots overhead supports a warming trend through this weekend with Friday and Saturday looking to be the hottest days of the long term with temperatures peaking in the triple digits for much of the region. Global models are starting to signal a cold front late in the weekend as a potent trough swings through the upper Midwest and our ridge weakens in intensity some. The GFS sends the front into our area, bringing cooler temperatures and some rain along with it for Sunday into Monday while the ECMWF keeps the front and any precipitation to our north. The NBM illustrates this uncertainty well with precipitation chances for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of next week. Stay tuned to future updates as we`ll be keeping a close eye on how this front evolves. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 94 68 95 / 50 20 20 0 Dryden 74 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 96 71 94 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 86 67 88 / 70 30 10 10 Hobbs 69 93 67 94 / 20 10 10 0 Marfa 61 90 59 89 / 30 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 75 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 73 97 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...80 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...80
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .DISCUSSION... Current-Tonight...Onshore gradient flow has temporarily increased today, and subsequent marine sourced showers remain featured across the southern portions of the area. Inland showers and a few storms largely ascd with sfc based heating will wane over the next couple hours. HRRR suggests a continuation of some Atlc showers and perhaps a storm or two tonight with a brief window of easterly flow to push some activity to the coast. Skies wl become mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows mainly in the lower 70s with some cooler spots across the interior and warmer along the barrier islands. prev disc... Tuesday...The influence of the ridge aloft across the southeast states and NE flow in the H9-H7 layer will keep much of east central FL dry on Tue with high temperatures from 86-88 near the coast to the lower 90s from Orlando westward. Some lingering moisture across the far south may allow for a stray shower or storm across Martin county otherwise dry and hot weather is expected. Low level onshore flow will continue a moderate risk for rip currents at east central FL beaches. Wed-Fri...The ridge across the southeast will continue to influence the weather into mid week and bring hotter temperatures. Continued NE/E flow Wed with below normal PWAT values will lead to dry and hot conditions with highs reaching the mid 90s from Orlando westward. The low level winds will veer to SSW/SW into late week with highs reaching the mid-upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the Treasure Coast. Dry conds Wed will give way to isolated storms Thu afternoon (some of which may be strong) to scattered storms on Friday with increasing moisture. Heat index readings will likely reach the 102- 106 range for the interior Thu-Fri which will elevate heat stress during outdoor activities. Sat-Mon...Long range models indicate unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Model solutions show a breakdown of the southeast ridge and mid level trough developing near FL or off the SE or Mid Atlc coast. The global models do indicate an substantial uptick in moisture levels across the area with mid level disturbances also enhancing diurnal convective coverage over the upcoming weekend. NBM pops in the 50-60 look in line with expected increase in daily shower and storm coverage. Highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Drier air limiting rain chances to just the Treasure Coast (mainly SUA) early tonight and Tuesday afternoon, but said chances are too low for even VC mention. Easterly winds 10-15kts gusting to 20kts become light tonight. Tuesday winds back to northeast and awaken at 6-10kts in the morning, then increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts as the sea breeze enhances the onshore flow in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Although ERC values are low, NE-E winds to 15 mph Tue/Wed with Min RHs dropping to 35-40 percent across the interior will be a fire weather concern && .MARINE... Tonight...ENE winds near 15 knots this evening will decrease some overnight to 10-15 knots. Seas 3 ft nearshore to 4 ft offshore. Scattered showers/storms near to south of Sebastian Inlet should decrease in coverage for late tonight. Tuesday...NE-E winds to 10-15 knots are expected with seas mainly 3- 4 ft and 5 ft across the Treasure Coast gulf stream waters. Conditions should be dry north of Ft Pierce Inlet with isolated showers/storms possible across the Martin county Atlantic waters. Tue Ngt-Fri (modified)...Moderate onshore flow continues on Tue Ngt/Wed with short period wind waves leading to choppy conditions for small craft. Winds veer to S/SSW Wed night-Fri. Wind speeds generally in the 10-15 knot range. Drier than normal conditions Tue- Thu night, but we begin to see more moisture and higher precip chances as we head into Fri and beyond. Initial seas 2-3 ft near shore/3-4 ft Gulf Stream settle to 2-3 ft areawide by Wed and perhaps a little less near shore and south of Sebastian Inlet. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/JRS/REH/ZL
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 It`s been another unseasonably hot day. Afternoon heat indices have risen into the low 100s, as an upper ridge maintains it`s hold over the southeastern CONUS. Tonight... An approaching trough and associated cold front will bring increasing chances for precipitation late this afternoon and evening over the region. The best chance for severe weather looks to remain to our north, over south Dakota, however a line of storms could extend back through parts of northeast and central Nebraska. Shear profiles remain unimpressive in the vicinity of this evening`s convection, leading to little confidence in organized storm structures. That being said, storms that are able to tap into the robust instability and steep midlevel lapse rates may be capable of producing strong downburst winds, and perhaps a bit of large hail. The best chance for precipitation looks to be from around 5 PM to 9 PM this evening, generally northwest of a line from Columbus to Wayne, NE. Tuesday... As the cold front passes through the region tonight and Tuesday, it will bring only minor relief from the heat. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thankfully, drier air will also settle in, bringing heat indices back to the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations as well. Our chances for another round of strong to severe storms will hinge on where the front sets up, Tuesday. The HRRR has been hinting at a few showers and weak thunderstorms bubbling along and south of I- 80 throughout the day. Additionally, most of the CAMs depict stronger convection will initiate after 5 PM Tuesday evening along the Nebraska/Kansas border. At the moment, it appears as though the majority of this second round will miss our forecast area. Wednesday through Friday... By Wednesday, a wide ridge of high pressure sets up over the south- central US, with a surface high sitting over the Central Plains. Wednesday will be our `coolest` day of the work week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Multiple shortwaves ridge will bring us off and on chances for showers and storms each day. It appears that the best chance for rain will be Thursday night, as the front lingering to our south drifts northward as a warm front. Temperatures on Thursday will bounce back to the low 90s, with mid 90s expected Friday, behind the front. Saturday and Beyond... A cold front will bring another round of showers and storms Saturday. This frontal passage will also finally give us some real relief from the heat, as temperatures dip back toward normal values. Highs on Saturday are expected to reach the mid 80s, with low 80s forecast for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Gusty winds are expected to begin diminishing through the evening at all TAF sites with VFR conditions expected throughout. Scattered showers and storms are currently ongoing west of KOFK, with the main activity expected to stay off to the northwest of the airport, although a thunderstorm could near the area through 05z. Also overnight, strong low-level wind shear is expected to ramp up with nearly 50 kt wind speeds out of the SSW above FL010. Tomorrow is expected to have much lighter winds out of the northwest, with a few mid and high clouds near KOFK. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Petersen