Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/20/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Forecast challenges revolve around the continued excessive heat
through tomorrow, and convective (svr?) potential through late this
evening and again Monday afternoon/evening.
At 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming through
the 90s, and into the low 100`s in some locations. With dewpoints
maintaining in the mid to upper 60s, the heat index has climbed to a
range from around 95 to 104 degrees, so far today. Strong south-
southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph persist
as well. There are a couple of boundaries of interest: one is a lee-
side trof extending down from western South Dakota (between KPIR and
KRAP) into the Nebraska panhandle; the other is a notable cold front
that is just about into the far northwest corner of South Dakota.
Plenty of instability/llm along this lee-side trof and along the
cold front. Just a question of how long it will take for updrafts to
successfully punch through the warm mid-level capping inversion
(+12C to +14C) in place over the forcing/boundaries of interest.
Right now, deep layer shear is rather unimpressive (generally less
than 25 knots - multicellular). Later this evening, though, shear is
forecast to increase to around 30knots, which should suffice to
support multi-cellular and supercellular convective types. Expecting
a few storms to fire up along/near this lee-side surface trof into
the west river counties in this CWA by 00Z-01Z timeframe before
lifting northward at a pretty good clip. The HRRR model hints at
some strong thunderstorm wind gusts with this convection this
evening. DCAPE progs over 1200j/kg would seem to support this strong
wind gusts potential where a deeply-mixed boundary layer and most
pronounced inverted-v sounding environment will exist.
The high heat is expected to stick around into Monday. The ensemble-
based probability for temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday
has been trending upward over the past couple of days, mainly across
the eastern-most portion of the CWA. With the potential there for a
second consecutive night (tonight) of heat index values at or above
75F and a second consecutive consecutive day on Monday of heat index
values at or above 105, continuing with the earlier adjustment to
include some counties in an excessive heat warning into Monday
evening. The heat advisory across the western half of the CWA will
expire this evening. The heat advisory for Buffalo and Hand county
has been extended in time into Monday evening, as well.
By late Monday afternoon, the previously mentioned cold front should
be making some progress toward northeast South Dakota and eventually
western Minnesota. At the same time, a notable (for late June)
upper low over the intermountain west will be lifting out onto the
northern plains. The combination of forcing/lift and
instability/shear accompanying this cold front/upper low Monday
afternoon into late Monday evening should suffice for producing
widely scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the CWA, some of
which could become strong to severe. With the passage of this cold
front, the high heat and humidity of the past couple of days will
be replaced by a much cooler/drier airmass beginning Monday
night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Frontal passage and high pressure means a pleasant reprieve from the
heat and humidity Tuesday into Wednesday before return flow sets up
and we begin to draw warmer mid level temperatures back into the
region. As for humidity, the cold front and high pressure centered
over the deep south will pinch off the current gulf plume, and thus
the airmass will come up from west Texas and the eastern Rockies so
dewpoints don`t really surge until late in the week, only to get
quickly suppressed again by the passage of a front this weekend.
This frontal passage will give us the best shot at moisture
otherwise, aside from some low probability mid level warm advection
convection pushes, the extended is to remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms may move near KPIR and KMBG this evening. Breezy and
gusty winds will persist across the east through Monday while
diminishing overnight in central SD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-048.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT Monday for SDZ006>008-018-
021.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM CDT Monday for SDZ011-019-020-022-023-
037-051.
MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1002 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Key Messages:
- Warming up Monday and Tuesday
- Possible rain and storm chances throughout the week
* Heat builds in Monday
The area will remain caught between an area of high pressure over
the lower Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley and an area of low pressure
over the Dakotas. These two features will maintain the south to
southwest low level flow over the region that will help to bring in
warmer air. The RAP indicates the warmest air at 925 mb, around 28C,
will reside over much of southeast Minnesota into north-central
Wisconsin. As the boundary layer mixes out in the afternoon, this
should help to push surface temperatures into the lower 90s with
some middle 90s possible, especially in the sandy river valleys. The
mixing could also bring down some drier air which would limit the
dew point rise and thus the heat indices. As of now, expecting dew
points to be in the upper 60s/near 70 in the warmest air which
yields heat indices at or just above 100 for parts of the area
across southeast Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin and will go
with a heat advisory to address these concerns.
*Heat continues into Tuesday
The heat will continue through the day on Tuesday as the ridge
continues to build to the east. Highs are still expected to be in
the low to mid 90s for most of the forecast area. With dewpoints in
the upper 60s and low 70s, maximum heat indices could reach just
above 100, especially in some locations across southwestern
Wisconsin. There are currently no advisories for Tuesday, but check
back for any changes as we continue to monitor conditions. After
quite a warm Monday and Tuesday, highs in the 80s/near 90 are
expected as we finish out the week.
*Rain and storm chances through the week
Model guidance continues to be in agreement on the overall pattern,
as an upper level trough lifts into Ontario. With the passage of a
cold front, some ensemble solutions suggest rain and storms could
return Tuesday. With a very warm and moist airmass ahead of the
front, model guidance shows sufficient instability across the
area. We will continue to monitor chances for severe weather, as
any storms that could form could provide some small chances for
hail and strong winds. As the upper level pattern shifts to a more
zonal flow, waves of shortwave energy will continue to move
through this flow. This will provide some small chances for rain
throughout the forecast period. However, there still remain some
differences among ensemble solutions in the timing and coverage of
this precipitation towards the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Will continue with leaving the LLWS threat out of the TAF as
confidence has decreased even more since the previous forecast on
its potential impacts. Surface winds look to hold fairly steady
from the south/southwest through the period around 10 knots
potentially gusting up to 25 knots after 18z. After 00z, clouds
increase in coverage from the west, but still remaining in VFR.
This will depend on any convection that may develop off to the
west.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029-
032>034-041.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086>088-
096.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04/EMS
AVIATION...Peters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery at 18Z Sunday
suggest the upper level pattern is quite amplified, with a ~591-dm
cut-off ridge, centered over the central plains/Ozarks, sitting
between a pair of deep troughs over the western and eastern
coasts. These features will move only slightly eastward through
the short term, bringing another hot, sunny day to southwest KS.
Temperatures at 18Z have already increased to 91+ across all of
our area, and will peak in the upper 90s around mid-afternoon.
Southerly winds will also be rather strong as a surface low over
the northern plains is supported by the upper level trough out
west, and winds sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts up to
40 mph can be expected.
Several 12Z CAMs have been suggesting isolated sub-severe
thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon as the upper
level trough inches east, and a few brief thunderstorms have
already occurred near the KS/OK border. Despite the more reliable
HRRR being the only major CAM not to show convection this
afternoon, enough support from the other CAMs (WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF,
NAM3km, WRF-FV3) and a growing cumulus field over southwest KS
adds confidence to this scenario, and therefore slight chance
pops were maintained.
Any convective activity at sunset will begin to decline owing to
increasing boundary layer stability, and most of the evening and
overnight period should be quiet across the central plains as
temperatures drop into the upper 60s and low 70s by Monday
morning. During the day Monday, a continuation of the hot and
sunny weather is expected. In fact, Monday will likely be a few
degrees warmer as winds trend more south-southwesterly as a result
of the surface low in the northern plains moving slightly east.
This will introduce a downslope component to the wind, and
foster afternoon highs on Monday near 100.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Medium range guidance is in good agreement suggesting the primary
vorticity max of the upper level trough in the west will be in the
process of ejecting northeastward at the beginning of the long
term period. As this feature moves toward the northern
plains/south-central Canada, a cold front will sag southward,
becoming nearly stationary somewhere across our northwest zones.
This front will be accompanied by a chance of thunderstorms late
Monday into Tuesday morning, however weak deep-layer flow oriented
along the boundary will limit the most appreciable precipitation
chances to the boundary`s immediate vicinity. During the day
Tuesday, the weak boundary will continue to drift slowly south, but
will do nothing to bring relief from the heat with temperatures
peaking in the mid 90s to near 100, save for the far northwest zones
where temperatures could hold in the upper 80s/low 90s.
Thunderstorms will again be possible along the boundary Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but once again limited instability and deep-
layer shear will preclude severe activity.
Both the 12Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS agree the
remainder of the long term period will offer little change with
respect to the upper level pattern. Once the aforementioned
vorticity max ejects, the cut-off upper level ridge will
retrograde to the southern/central plains with zonal flow over
the northern CONUS, and this pattern will remain more or less
locked through the beginning of next week. NBM is pumping out a
near daily chance of afternoon thunderstorms over southwest KS as
weak upper level perturbations move through the northern periphery
of the cut-off ridge, however strong subsidence will keep most
locations hot and dry through the week with highs in the 90s to
low 100s each day. Late in the period, guidance is hinting at the
possibility of some legitimate, multi-day relief from the heat as
a strong upper level low moves across southern Canada and pushes a
cold front well south of our area. Despite the ECMWF and GFS being
in excellent agreement regarding this scenario, forecast
reliability at that range is notoriously low, rendering confidence
in this scenario low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
Isolated thunderstorms will move northeast across central Kansas
through 01Z, potentially affecting KHYS briefly. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early
Monday. Gusty southerly winds up to 20 to 30kt will subside somewhat
after sunset with loss of daytime heating as a lee side trough of
low pressure remains anchored in extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 99 71 98 / 20 0 10 20
GCK 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 69 95 68 91 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 71 98 69 95 / 10 0 10 20
HYS 73 99 72 95 / 20 10 20 20
P28 73 98 74 99 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
823 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
.DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm threat moved well to our south and east early
this evening with now an unusual deep upper trough lingering over
the western states to move through the area the next couple days.
This will keep the area cool and unsettled with scattered showers
into Tuesday morning. Drying is expected thereafter. TFJ
Previous Discussion...
Areas of showers with embedded thunder continue to track across
portions of NE Montana this afternoon while breezy conditions,
enhanced at times by nearby conditions, continue to impact the
Fort Peck Lake area. Thus, the Lake Wind Advisory remains in
effect. Next, attention turns to the severe weather potential for
this afternoon and evening.
The SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across
our southeast zones. Morning convection and cloud cover lend to
some uncertainty, but as convection develops over the higher
terrain of Wyoming and Southern Montana this afternoon and tracks
northeast into a moisture rich environment, initial supercells
and multicell structures should evolve and could grow upscale into
linear convection in some instances given 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE in
the presence of 50-60 kt 0-6 km shear and steep lapse rates. The
latest HRRR runs have trended to the south and east compared with
guidance from earlier this morning, perhaps indicative of cloud
cover and factors described previously. Nevertheless, the
potential is there for damaging winds and large hail and brief
heavy rain with any storm that makes it into the region. It is
noted that visible satellite imagery does show some breaks in the
clouds over the area of interest.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday and
linger into Tuesday as the main upper trough transitions further
to the east. Some of these storms, particularly now through
Monday, could produce locally heavy rainfall. It is worth noting
that precipitable water is above 90 percent of climatology.
Midweek and beyond, the forecast was trended toward the latest
ensemble consensus guidance with minimal changes to enable focus
on the short term severe weather impact period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated: 0220z
MVFR ceilings with increasing shower coverage will occur tonight
into early Monday. MVFR conditions will probably linger into most
of Monday.
Winds: Generally NW but decreasing to less than 10 kts tonight
then increasing Monday.
Outlook: Look for unsettled conditions to linger into early
Tuesday before drier conditions take over mid-week. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis
shows the CWA having a southerly flow loft being underneath an upper
air ridge with a trough over the western CONUS. Current radar
returns show some isolated thunderstorms in western Cheyenne and
Kiowa counties moving northward as well. Going into the evening,
forecast models depict the western trough moving eastward a bit
while a shortwave disturbance makes its way through the flow over
the CWA. At the surface, chances for brief, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible throughout the CWA during the late
afternoon and evening hours though chances are a bit better in areas
along and west of the CO border. Model forecast soundings show an
inverted-V shape with low CAPE, very little shear, but DCAPE at 1200-
1500 J/kg which may make downburst winds possible with thunderstorms
that develop. With the lee surface trough set up just west of the
CWA, southerly winds gusting up to around 50 mph are possible during
the afternoon hours that may lessen a bit after sundown. Daytime
highs for Sunday look to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s range
with maximum heat indices a few degrees cooler due to the lower RH
values. Overnight low temperatures on Sunday expect to range between
the lower 60s and middle 70s.
Going into Monday, the CWA sees the flow aloft turn southwesterly
with the front part of the trough moving over western NE and
northeastern CO. During the evening and overnight hours, models show
an upper air low over MT moving northeast into Canada as the trough
redevelops in the western CONUS. A shortwave disturbance is seen
once again passing over the CWA during the evening hours as well. At
the surface, a surface low looks to east-southeastward across
northern CO during the day and into western KS overnight. Models
show chances for showers and thunderstorms along an area from TRB to
MCK that move eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Latest model forecast soundings again show an inverted-V shape with
DCAPE values similar to Sunday`s. However, sfc-500mb bulk shear
values look to range around 50 kts with CAPE values around 500 J/kg
and mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 degrees/C. Isolated severe
storms may be possible, but low certainty at this moment. Gusty
south-southwesterly winds are expected again Monday though they may
be a bit lighter than Sunday`s. Elevated fire weather conditions may
be possible for the CWA with these winds though the lowest minimum
RHs are seen in the northwestern quadrant being in the upper teens.
Daytime high temperatures again will be a bit higher than the
maximum heat indices due the drier conditions and expect to range
between the upper 80s and lower 100s. Overnight lows for Monday
range between the middle 50s and upper 60s.
For Tuesday, models continue to keep the southwesterly flow over the
CWA until the nighttime hours when an upper air low cuts off from
the trough over central CA and the base of the trough starts to
progress over the Northern Plains region. Another shortwave
disturbance is seen passing over the CWA in the evening. At the
surface, a cold front looks to pass through the CWA during the
morning hours with chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms possible for most of the CWA wrapping around the
surface low moving into central KS. Convective parameters do not
look to support severe weather at this time with these precipitation
chances, but will be monitored going forward. Daytime highs on
Tuesday range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s followed by
overnight lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
A more active weather pattern starting to set up in the long term
period.
An upper level high and ridge is across parts of TX and into the
lower MS valley region through the period. A more zonal upper
level flow pattern sets up across the region in the extended. At
the surface a surface low is projected across southwest Kansas/OK
PH region with a surface cold front across southern KS and a
surface trough across western KS/northeast CO region. On Thursday
and Friday a surface trough is across NW KS/NE CO region. On
Saturday morning a low pressure is projected to be across west
central KS with a cold front north across Nebraska and a surface
trough south across southern KS.
Models have Tri-State Region in a little more favorable region
for precipitation on Wednesday. More isolated activity will be
possible Thursday into Friday. Then by next Saturday and Sunday
better chances of precipitation return again.
On Wednesday afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s. By
Thursday through next Saturday afternoon high temperatures will be
mainly in the 90s. Temperatures by next Sunday are then projected
to cool down to be mainly in the 80s. Overnight low temperatures
will be mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s through the period.
Again a more active weather pattern starting to set up in the
extended period. Confidence is lower into next weekend with
placement of the upper level high/ridge having an impact on
precipitation placement.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 455 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period.
That being said, there are a couple of things to watch this
evening and overnight. Isolated storms continue to develop across
the region though the lack of shear and instability has the storms
pulsing instead of sustaining. Henceforth, any storm chances for
the terminals are very low. Even if one does move over the
terminal, the storms have struggled to produce lightning though
strong outflow winds could be possible. However, with the
environmental flow being fairly strong, the threat would be
limited to right near the storms with maybe a small change in wind
direction. With the low chances and short duration, have left
storms out of the TAF. All activity should decrease during the
evening and conclude by 06Z.
As for LLWS, there is a chance in the lowest 1000 to 2000ft but
will depend on how strong the near surface flow remains. Winds
will be strong in the lower 3000 ft with forecasts suggesting 50
to 60 kts off the surface. However, with relatively strong flow
near the surface LLWS would not be likely as the transition would
be a few kts per 100ft. So have left out LLWS in the TAF but will
monitor how winds set up during the evening. LLWS would become
more likely if the surface flow slows down below 15 kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...KAK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
904 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022
.UPDATE...
Afternoon convection ended up being a bit less extensive than
previously thought, though scattered showers and storms did form
across the Kissimmee River through southern Osceola and northern
Okeechobee Counties into the late afternoon/early evening.
Nonetheless, decreased PoPs area-wide through midnight, with
little to no development expected across any outflow boundaries
moving through the Treasure Coast. However, have maintained a
slight chance/chance mention for showers and isolated storms
through the overnight hours along the coast and offshore, mainly
from the Cape northward. This is due to the continuing presence of
development of showers and/or storms along the stalled boundary
overnight on HRRR runs. Brief development has already been
observed along this feature prior to sunset. Should additional
activity come to pass, a few cells could drift into interior
portions of Volusia County, as winds become increasingly onshore
through sunrise.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected for much of the area
tonight, with diminishing cloud cover. Overnight lows in the low
to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Predominantly VFR through the night and morning. East winds becoming
light tonight, picking back up around 10kts Monday morning, then
increasing to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts as the sea breeze
enhances the easterly flow. A frontal trough offshore of DAB may
lead to showers and storms coming onshore tonight, but high-res
guidance lacks agreement in development of this feature, so have not
included VCSH/VCTS/TEMPOs with the 00Z TAF package. However, short
fused AMDs and TEMPOs may be needed from DAB/TIX to as far inland as
MCO/ISM, based on the HRRR`s latest solution. Easterly flow will
favor earlier development of the east coast sea breeze, focusing
convective developing Monday afternoon inland and across the
interior.
&&
.MARINE...
Easterly winds 10-15kts north of Sebastian Inlet and 5-10kts to
the south. A chance of showers and storms persisting through the
overnight hours, as a stalled boundary remains draped across
northern portions of the area. Seas 3-4ft, with up to 5ft building
in well offshore through daybreak.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 87 73 88 / 30 30 0 0
MCO 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 10
MLB 75 87 75 86 / 20 50 10 10
VRB 73 87 73 86 / 20 50 20 20
LEE 74 90 71 92 / 30 30 0 0
SFB 73 88 71 91 / 20 30 10 0
ORL 74 89 75 92 / 20 40 10 10
FPR 72 87 73 86 / 20 50 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Leahy/Pendergrast/Haley