Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/20/22

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Forecast challenges revolve around the continued excessive heat through tomorrow, and convective (svr?) potential through late this evening and again Monday afternoon/evening. At 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are warming through the 90s, and into the low 100`s in some locations. With dewpoints maintaining in the mid to upper 60s, the heat index has climbed to a range from around 95 to 104 degrees, so far today. Strong south- southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph persist as well. There are a couple of boundaries of interest: one is a lee- side trof extending down from western South Dakota (between KPIR and KRAP) into the Nebraska panhandle; the other is a notable cold front that is just about into the far northwest corner of South Dakota. Plenty of instability/llm along this lee-side trof and along the cold front. Just a question of how long it will take for updrafts to successfully punch through the warm mid-level capping inversion (+12C to +14C) in place over the forcing/boundaries of interest. Right now, deep layer shear is rather unimpressive (generally less than 25 knots - multicellular). Later this evening, though, shear is forecast to increase to around 30knots, which should suffice to support multi-cellular and supercellular convective types. Expecting a few storms to fire up along/near this lee-side surface trof into the west river counties in this CWA by 00Z-01Z timeframe before lifting northward at a pretty good clip. The HRRR model hints at some strong thunderstorm wind gusts with this convection this evening. DCAPE progs over 1200j/kg would seem to support this strong wind gusts potential where a deeply-mixed boundary layer and most pronounced inverted-v sounding environment will exist. The high heat is expected to stick around into Monday. The ensemble- based probability for temperature exceeding 100 degrees on Monday has been trending upward over the past couple of days, mainly across the eastern-most portion of the CWA. With the potential there for a second consecutive night (tonight) of heat index values at or above 75F and a second consecutive consecutive day on Monday of heat index values at or above 105, continuing with the earlier adjustment to include some counties in an excessive heat warning into Monday evening. The heat advisory across the western half of the CWA will expire this evening. The heat advisory for Buffalo and Hand county has been extended in time into Monday evening, as well. By late Monday afternoon, the previously mentioned cold front should be making some progress toward northeast South Dakota and eventually western Minnesota. At the same time, a notable (for late June) upper low over the intermountain west will be lifting out onto the northern plains. The combination of forcing/lift and instability/shear accompanying this cold front/upper low Monday afternoon into late Monday evening should suffice for producing widely scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the CWA, some of which could become strong to severe. With the passage of this cold front, the high heat and humidity of the past couple of days will be replaced by a much cooler/drier airmass beginning Monday night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Frontal passage and high pressure means a pleasant reprieve from the heat and humidity Tuesday into Wednesday before return flow sets up and we begin to draw warmer mid level temperatures back into the region. As for humidity, the cold front and high pressure centered over the deep south will pinch off the current gulf plume, and thus the airmass will come up from west Texas and the eastern Rockies so dewpoints don`t really surge until late in the week, only to get quickly suppressed again by the passage of a front this weekend. This frontal passage will give us the best shot at moisture otherwise, aside from some low probability mid level warm advection convection pushes, the extended is to remain dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the period. Showers and thunderstorms may move near KPIR and KMBG this evening. Breezy and gusty winds will persist across the east through Monday while diminishing overnight in central SD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>036-045-048. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT Monday for SDZ006>008-018- 021. Heat Advisory until 11 PM CDT Monday for SDZ011-019-020-022-023- 037-051. MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT Monday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1002 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Key Messages: - Warming up Monday and Tuesday - Possible rain and storm chances throughout the week * Heat builds in Monday The area will remain caught between an area of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley and an area of low pressure over the Dakotas. These two features will maintain the south to southwest low level flow over the region that will help to bring in warmer air. The RAP indicates the warmest air at 925 mb, around 28C, will reside over much of southeast Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin. As the boundary layer mixes out in the afternoon, this should help to push surface temperatures into the lower 90s with some middle 90s possible, especially in the sandy river valleys. The mixing could also bring down some drier air which would limit the dew point rise and thus the heat indices. As of now, expecting dew points to be in the upper 60s/near 70 in the warmest air which yields heat indices at or just above 100 for parts of the area across southeast Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin and will go with a heat advisory to address these concerns. *Heat continues into Tuesday The heat will continue through the day on Tuesday as the ridge continues to build to the east. Highs are still expected to be in the low to mid 90s for most of the forecast area. With dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, maximum heat indices could reach just above 100, especially in some locations across southwestern Wisconsin. There are currently no advisories for Tuesday, but check back for any changes as we continue to monitor conditions. After quite a warm Monday and Tuesday, highs in the 80s/near 90 are expected as we finish out the week. *Rain and storm chances through the week Model guidance continues to be in agreement on the overall pattern, as an upper level trough lifts into Ontario. With the passage of a cold front, some ensemble solutions suggest rain and storms could return Tuesday. With a very warm and moist airmass ahead of the front, model guidance shows sufficient instability across the area. We will continue to monitor chances for severe weather, as any storms that could form could provide some small chances for hail and strong winds. As the upper level pattern shifts to a more zonal flow, waves of shortwave energy will continue to move through this flow. This will provide some small chances for rain throughout the forecast period. However, there still remain some differences among ensemble solutions in the timing and coverage of this precipitation towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Will continue with leaving the LLWS threat out of the TAF as confidence has decreased even more since the previous forecast on its potential impacts. Surface winds look to hold fairly steady from the south/southwest through the period around 10 knots potentially gusting up to 25 knots after 18z. After 00z, clouds increase in coverage from the west, but still remaining in VFR. This will depend on any convection that may develop off to the west. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041. MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MNZ079-086>088- 096. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...04/EMS AVIATION...Peters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery at 18Z Sunday suggest the upper level pattern is quite amplified, with a ~591-dm cut-off ridge, centered over the central plains/Ozarks, sitting between a pair of deep troughs over the western and eastern coasts. These features will move only slightly eastward through the short term, bringing another hot, sunny day to southwest KS. Temperatures at 18Z have already increased to 91+ across all of our area, and will peak in the upper 90s around mid-afternoon. Southerly winds will also be rather strong as a surface low over the northern plains is supported by the upper level trough out west, and winds sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected. Several 12Z CAMs have been suggesting isolated sub-severe thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon as the upper level trough inches east, and a few brief thunderstorms have already occurred near the KS/OK border. Despite the more reliable HRRR being the only major CAM not to show convection this afternoon, enough support from the other CAMs (WRF-ARW, NSSL-WRF, NAM3km, WRF-FV3) and a growing cumulus field over southwest KS adds confidence to this scenario, and therefore slight chance pops were maintained. Any convective activity at sunset will begin to decline owing to increasing boundary layer stability, and most of the evening and overnight period should be quiet across the central plains as temperatures drop into the upper 60s and low 70s by Monday morning. During the day Monday, a continuation of the hot and sunny weather is expected. In fact, Monday will likely be a few degrees warmer as winds trend more south-southwesterly as a result of the surface low in the northern plains moving slightly east. This will introduce a downslope component to the wind, and foster afternoon highs on Monday near 100. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Medium range guidance is in good agreement suggesting the primary vorticity max of the upper level trough in the west will be in the process of ejecting northeastward at the beginning of the long term period. As this feature moves toward the northern plains/south-central Canada, a cold front will sag southward, becoming nearly stationary somewhere across our northwest zones. This front will be accompanied by a chance of thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday morning, however weak deep-layer flow oriented along the boundary will limit the most appreciable precipitation chances to the boundary`s immediate vicinity. During the day Tuesday, the weak boundary will continue to drift slowly south, but will do nothing to bring relief from the heat with temperatures peaking in the mid 90s to near 100, save for the far northwest zones where temperatures could hold in the upper 80s/low 90s. Thunderstorms will again be possible along the boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening, but once again limited instability and deep- layer shear will preclude severe activity. Both the 12Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS agree the remainder of the long term period will offer little change with respect to the upper level pattern. Once the aforementioned vorticity max ejects, the cut-off upper level ridge will retrograde to the southern/central plains with zonal flow over the northern CONUS, and this pattern will remain more or less locked through the beginning of next week. NBM is pumping out a near daily chance of afternoon thunderstorms over southwest KS as weak upper level perturbations move through the northern periphery of the cut-off ridge, however strong subsidence will keep most locations hot and dry through the week with highs in the 90s to low 100s each day. Late in the period, guidance is hinting at the possibility of some legitimate, multi-day relief from the heat as a strong upper level low moves across southern Canada and pushes a cold front well south of our area. Despite the ECMWF and GFS being in excellent agreement regarding this scenario, forecast reliability at that range is notoriously low, rendering confidence in this scenario low. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 515 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Isolated thunderstorms will move northeast across central Kansas through 01Z, potentially affecting KHYS briefly. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Monday. Gusty southerly winds up to 20 to 30kt will subside somewhat after sunset with loss of daytime heating as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme eastern Colorado. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 99 71 98 / 20 0 10 20 GCK 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 20 EHA 69 95 68 91 / 10 10 10 30 LBL 71 98 69 95 / 10 0 10 20 HYS 73 99 72 95 / 20 10 20 20 P28 73 98 74 99 / 20 0 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Springer LONG TERM...Springer AVIATION...JJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
823 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm threat moved well to our south and east early this evening with now an unusual deep upper trough lingering over the western states to move through the area the next couple days. This will keep the area cool and unsettled with scattered showers into Tuesday morning. Drying is expected thereafter. TFJ Previous Discussion... Areas of showers with embedded thunder continue to track across portions of NE Montana this afternoon while breezy conditions, enhanced at times by nearby conditions, continue to impact the Fort Peck Lake area. Thus, the Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. Next, attention turns to the severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening. The SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across our southeast zones. Morning convection and cloud cover lend to some uncertainty, but as convection develops over the higher terrain of Wyoming and Southern Montana this afternoon and tracks northeast into a moisture rich environment, initial supercells and multicell structures should evolve and could grow upscale into linear convection in some instances given 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE in the presence of 50-60 kt 0-6 km shear and steep lapse rates. The latest HRRR runs have trended to the south and east compared with guidance from earlier this morning, perhaps indicative of cloud cover and factors described previously. Nevertheless, the potential is there for damaging winds and large hail and brief heavy rain with any storm that makes it into the region. It is noted that visible satellite imagery does show some breaks in the clouds over the area of interest. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday and linger into Tuesday as the main upper trough transitions further to the east. Some of these storms, particularly now through Monday, could produce locally heavy rainfall. It is worth noting that precipitable water is above 90 percent of climatology. Midweek and beyond, the forecast was trended toward the latest ensemble consensus guidance with minimal changes to enable focus on the short term severe weather impact period. && .AVIATION... Updated: 0220z MVFR ceilings with increasing shower coverage will occur tonight into early Monday. MVFR conditions will probably linger into most of Monday. Winds: Generally NW but decreasing to less than 10 kts tonight then increasing Monday. Outlook: Look for unsettled conditions to linger into early Tuesday before drier conditions take over mid-week. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 244 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA having a southerly flow loft being underneath an upper air ridge with a trough over the western CONUS. Current radar returns show some isolated thunderstorms in western Cheyenne and Kiowa counties moving northward as well. Going into the evening, forecast models depict the western trough moving eastward a bit while a shortwave disturbance makes its way through the flow over the CWA. At the surface, chances for brief, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the CWA during the late afternoon and evening hours though chances are a bit better in areas along and west of the CO border. Model forecast soundings show an inverted-V shape with low CAPE, very little shear, but DCAPE at 1200- 1500 J/kg which may make downburst winds possible with thunderstorms that develop. With the lee surface trough set up just west of the CWA, southerly winds gusting up to around 50 mph are possible during the afternoon hours that may lessen a bit after sundown. Daytime highs for Sunday look to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s range with maximum heat indices a few degrees cooler due to the lower RH values. Overnight low temperatures on Sunday expect to range between the lower 60s and middle 70s. Going into Monday, the CWA sees the flow aloft turn southwesterly with the front part of the trough moving over western NE and northeastern CO. During the evening and overnight hours, models show an upper air low over MT moving northeast into Canada as the trough redevelops in the western CONUS. A shortwave disturbance is seen once again passing over the CWA during the evening hours as well. At the surface, a surface low looks to east-southeastward across northern CO during the day and into western KS overnight. Models show chances for showers and thunderstorms along an area from TRB to MCK that move eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Latest model forecast soundings again show an inverted-V shape with DCAPE values similar to Sunday`s. However, sfc-500mb bulk shear values look to range around 50 kts with CAPE values around 500 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 degrees/C. Isolated severe storms may be possible, but low certainty at this moment. Gusty south-southwesterly winds are expected again Monday though they may be a bit lighter than Sunday`s. Elevated fire weather conditions may be possible for the CWA with these winds though the lowest minimum RHs are seen in the northwestern quadrant being in the upper teens. Daytime high temperatures again will be a bit higher than the maximum heat indices due the drier conditions and expect to range between the upper 80s and lower 100s. Overnight lows for Monday range between the middle 50s and upper 60s. For Tuesday, models continue to keep the southwesterly flow over the CWA until the nighttime hours when an upper air low cuts off from the trough over central CA and the base of the trough starts to progress over the Northern Plains region. Another shortwave disturbance is seen passing over the CWA in the evening. At the surface, a cold front looks to pass through the CWA during the morning hours with chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the CWA wrapping around the surface low moving into central KS. Convective parameters do not look to support severe weather at this time with these precipitation chances, but will be monitored going forward. Daytime highs on Tuesday range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s followed by overnight lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 A more active weather pattern starting to set up in the long term period. An upper level high and ridge is across parts of TX and into the lower MS valley region through the period. A more zonal upper level flow pattern sets up across the region in the extended. At the surface a surface low is projected across southwest Kansas/OK PH region with a surface cold front across southern KS and a surface trough across western KS/northeast CO region. On Thursday and Friday a surface trough is across NW KS/NE CO region. On Saturday morning a low pressure is projected to be across west central KS with a cold front north across Nebraska and a surface trough south across southern KS. Models have Tri-State Region in a little more favorable region for precipitation on Wednesday. More isolated activity will be possible Thursday into Friday. Then by next Saturday and Sunday better chances of precipitation return again. On Wednesday afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s. By Thursday through next Saturday afternoon high temperatures will be mainly in the 90s. Temperatures by next Sunday are then projected to cool down to be mainly in the 80s. Overnight low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s through the period. Again a more active weather pattern starting to set up in the extended period. Confidence is lower into next weekend with placement of the upper level high/ridge having an impact on precipitation placement. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 455 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period. That being said, there are a couple of things to watch this evening and overnight. Isolated storms continue to develop across the region though the lack of shear and instability has the storms pulsing instead of sustaining. Henceforth, any storm chances for the terminals are very low. Even if one does move over the terminal, the storms have struggled to produce lightning though strong outflow winds could be possible. However, with the environmental flow being fairly strong, the threat would be limited to right near the storms with maybe a small change in wind direction. With the low chances and short duration, have left storms out of the TAF. All activity should decrease during the evening and conclude by 06Z. As for LLWS, there is a chance in the lowest 1000 to 2000ft but will depend on how strong the near surface flow remains. Winds will be strong in the lower 3000 ft with forecasts suggesting 50 to 60 kts off the surface. However, with relatively strong flow near the surface LLWS would not be likely as the transition would be a few kts per 100ft. So have left out LLWS in the TAF but will monitor how winds set up during the evening. LLWS would become more likely if the surface flow slows down below 15 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...KAK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
904 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .UPDATE... Afternoon convection ended up being a bit less extensive than previously thought, though scattered showers and storms did form across the Kissimmee River through southern Osceola and northern Okeechobee Counties into the late afternoon/early evening. Nonetheless, decreased PoPs area-wide through midnight, with little to no development expected across any outflow boundaries moving through the Treasure Coast. However, have maintained a slight chance/chance mention for showers and isolated storms through the overnight hours along the coast and offshore, mainly from the Cape northward. This is due to the continuing presence of development of showers and/or storms along the stalled boundary overnight on HRRR runs. Brief development has already been observed along this feature prior to sunset. Should additional activity come to pass, a few cells could drift into interior portions of Volusia County, as winds become increasingly onshore through sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected for much of the area tonight, with diminishing cloud cover. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... Predominantly VFR through the night and morning. East winds becoming light tonight, picking back up around 10kts Monday morning, then increasing to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts as the sea breeze enhances the easterly flow. A frontal trough offshore of DAB may lead to showers and storms coming onshore tonight, but high-res guidance lacks agreement in development of this feature, so have not included VCSH/VCTS/TEMPOs with the 00Z TAF package. However, short fused AMDs and TEMPOs may be needed from DAB/TIX to as far inland as MCO/ISM, based on the HRRR`s latest solution. Easterly flow will favor earlier development of the east coast sea breeze, focusing convective developing Monday afternoon inland and across the interior. && .MARINE... Easterly winds 10-15kts north of Sebastian Inlet and 5-10kts to the south. A chance of showers and storms persisting through the overnight hours, as a stalled boundary remains draped across northern portions of the area. Seas 3-4ft, with up to 5ft building in well offshore through daybreak. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 87 73 88 / 30 30 0 0 MCO 73 90 73 91 / 20 50 10 10 MLB 75 87 75 86 / 20 50 10 10 VRB 73 87 73 86 / 20 50 20 20 LEE 74 90 71 92 / 30 30 0 0 SFB 73 88 71 91 / 20 30 10 0 ORL 74 89 75 92 / 20 40 10 10 FPR 72 87 73 86 / 20 50 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Leahy/Pendergrast/Haley