Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/19/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
930 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Monday, becoming
centered off the Southeast coast through Thursday. The next cold
front approaches late Thursday, then stalls over the region late
in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Saturday...
Any evening clouds dissipate, then clear and cool tonight as
the high builds in from the nw. Gusty NW winds early this
evening diminish after sunset this evening, and become 10 kt or
less overnight. Chilly for mid-late June but no records
expected (see CLI section below). Lows from the upr 40s/~50 NW
to near 60 along the SE coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...
Another mstly sunny day Sun with low humidity as high pres
builds south across the Gt Lakes rgn. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s
except mid 70s at the beaches. Mstly clr Sun night. Lows in the
50s to near 60 sern beach areas. Mstly sunny Mon as the high
crosses the mts. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s. Lows Mon night upr 50s-
lwr 60s.
The high pushes SSE of the area Tue. Return sw flow allows the
summer heat to return. Highs upr 80s-lwr 90s inland, low-mid 80s
along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Saturday...
High pres remains across the se thru the week with a cold front
approaching from the NW Thurs night. Low confidence after that
as the models offer up different solutions on how far south the
bndry gets due to low pressure progged to develop along it.
What this scenario will do is increase moisture off the Atlantic
resulting in unsettled conditions later this week.
Will carry 20-30% diurnal PoP Wed due to sct convection
developing along a sfc trof east of the mts. Highs 90-95
inland, mid-upr 80s near the water. Lows 65-70. 20-30% PoP Thurs
(highest west) ahead of approaching cold front. Highs 85-90
inland, 80-85 along the coast. Low chc PoPs cont Thurs night as
the front moves into the region. Lows 65-70.
Unsettled Fri/Sat (chc PoPs) as the front lingers across the region
combined with moisture from the low. Highs 85-90, lows 65-70.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions across area terminals anticipated to persist
through the forecast period. Surface high pressure builds across
the region from the NW. SCT-BKN AC/CU deck at 6-7K FT will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Gusty NW winds at 15-25
kts continue into early evening, then diminish to 10 kts or
less overnight, before resuming at ~15-20 kts after diurnal
heating resumes on Sun. A thin veil of CI/AC noses back in west
of the terminals Sunday aftn into Sunday night, but again AOA 10
KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK... VFR conditions continue through the middle of next
week as high pressure lingers across the area Sun/Mon then
builds over the southeast and off the Mid Atlantic coast through
midweek. A cold front approaches late Thursday. Localized sub-
VFR conditions in showers and T-storms possible Wed/Thu aftn
and evening.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 930 PM EDT Saturday...
Winds speeds this evening continue to go through periods of
increased and slightly decreased speeds. The HRRR has been
capturing this rather well, at least the trend. Guidance
suggests that while this trend in decreasing wind was occurring
around 9 pm, northerly winds will increase again overnight and
into early Sunday with another surge of cool dry air. Confidence
is not real high, but have kept the SCAs up for everywhere but
the rivers. The Bay will still seeing winds of 15 to 20 kt
gusting to 25 kt and even stronger at the mouth of the Bay. Seas
have built to 4-5ft.
Winds will then diminish to 10-15kt for most locations by later
Sunday afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region
to start the new week, giving way to mostly light and variable
winds, and waves and seas around 1 to 2 ft respectively. Winds
look to become more southerly Tuesday into Wednesday, with rain
chances possibly returning by mid to late week.
Additionally, a moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the
remainder of today and Sunday for the southern VA and NE NC
beaches.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Chilly overnight, but no record lows anticipated in the coming
days. However for reference, we`ve included record lows for
6/19:
RIC 50 in 1965
ORF 51 in 1961
SBY 44 in 1999
ECG 53 in 1965
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR/MAM
MARINE...JKP/JAO
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
940 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Forecast remains on track as we have had weak thunderstorm
activity that has moved across the NE Panhandle, and our western
forecast zones west of the Laramie Range this evening.
Temperatures look to be on track also with a gradual downward
trend, especially where the light rain shower activity has
occurred already this evening. With a dry air mass trending toward
a more moist air mass this evening, elevated to strong wind gusts
are still possible across the higher terrain and wind prone areas
of Carbon and Albany County. Observations have shown gusts
between 45-55+mph across several locations in Carbon County this
evening. Scattered rain showers are likely west of the Laramie
Range this evening into the overnight hours, with a few rumbles of
thunder also possible. Expect overnight lows in the 50s and 60s
overnight, with the highest mountain peaks west of the Laramie
Range potentially dipping into the middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Latest GOES 16 WV imagery shows a deep upper-level low centered
over OR with an elongated moisture stream extending northward from
the tropics through AZ/NM into eastern WY. With increased
moisture across the area, much of the CWA is under cloudy skies.
Most locations reached daily max temperatures before noon today
with the cloud cover increasing in coverage. Portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River valley reached the upper
90s. Light showers have developed from Cheyenne towards
Scottsbluff and down to Kimball and should continue this
afternoon. Storms continue to develop farther south over the CO
Rockies this afternoon with better mid-level moisture moving north
towards the CWA later in the afternoon and this evening. Hi-res
guidance increases storm coverage over Carbon and Albany counties
after 6pm tonight. Latest RAP forecast MLCAPE values look fairly
marginal which should help limit intensity of potential rainfall,
especially over the higher terrain and Mullen Burn Scar area.
The upper low will continue to slowly progress eastward with another
chance for precipitation Sunday across the area. Upper level flow
will increase leading to faster storm motions and increase shear to
near 40 kt with instability to 800 J/kg (MLCAPE). This will lead to
the potential for a few strong to severe storms as winds will be the
main threat. SPC expanded the Day 2 Marginal Risk to include more
areas along and east of the Laramie Range. While flooding potential
is low with quicker storm motions for most locations, will need to
monitor sensitive areas such as the Mullen Burn Scar near the
Snowy Range. PWs look to climb 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal with this monsoonal-like pattern. Latest hi-res guidance
continues to paint highest QPF amounts (1"+) along the South
Laramie Range east of Laramie, while areas over the Snowy Range
could see around 0.30" according to the latest HREF QPF PMM. This
is a slightly eastward shift compared to earlier guidance.
Additionally, 90th percentile QPF from NBM v4.1 only highlights
0.25" over the Snowy Range.
Considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the Mullen BurnScar area
through Sunday evening, but ultimately decided to hold off for
reasons listed above. Upcoming shifts should continue to monitor
latest forecast and observational trends in case any headlines are
needed.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
1) Chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon. Confidence is currently low.
2) Low chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm in the southern
Nebraska panhandle late Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon.
3) Hot and mostly dry conditions until Friday. Warming temperature
trend Tuesday through Friday.
DISCUSSION: Monday as the trough moves off to the northeast, there`s
a lingering chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two in southeast
Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle through the afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday we move into a more zonal flow with hot and
mostly dry conditions. There is a chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm or two, but currently chances and confidence are low
due to limited moisture and instability. Best chances are in the
Nebraska panhandle. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s
and 90s with low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.
A trough is set to move from the PACNW with the southern end briefly
touching our CWA Friday. Over the weekend models are showing the
trough tapping into some better moisture, increasing the
precipitation chances. Confidence is currently low on how widespread
and how impactful this precipitation will be.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
VFR conditions expected at all TAF terminals through the TAF
period with gusty winds 25 to 35 knots through the day. Due to
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, visibility may
lower to MVFR or IFR if a shower or thunderstorm tracks directly
over a terminal. Confidence is low today on locations for showers
and thunderstorms. AMD are likely as confidence grows and we start
to see more development. In addition, gusty and erratic winds can
be expected around showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms should mostly be cleared out between 04Z and 06Z
tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Showers and thunderstorms continue today and Sunday across the
area with cloud cover, however drier low levels have kept
afternoon RHs near 20 percent. Increased moisture expected Sunday
with breezy conditions near any showers and storms. Slightly
cooler, but still near normal temperatures expected early this
week before warming back up mid-to-late week leading to afternoon
RHs near critical levels.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...LK
AVIATION...LK
FIRE WEATHER...MB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Skies are mostly clear this afternoon with just some minimal
cumulus clouds in the southern counties. The HRRR does show some
very minor development of some very isolated light showers later
this afternoon, but nothing appreciable is expected and will keep
the forecast dry with overall PoPs less than 10 percent.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s at the present time for
most areas and we should see highs later this afternoon topping out
in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
For tonight, expect some cloud cover in the southern counties once
again by morning as low-level moisture slightly increases. Lows will
be in the 70s for most locations. High-res models do show additional
very isolated showers tomorrow but overall chances will be less than
20 percent and will not mention anything in the forecast, but some
lucky person may see liquid droplets falling from the sky. Highs are
once again expected to be in the in the upper 90s to near 102
degrees. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should prevail tomorrow
night with lows ranging from near 70 in the Hill Country to the
upper 70s in the west.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
The strong upper level ridge will continue to control the weather
pattern next week. It will continue to suppress any chance for
convection. It will wobble back and forth over the middle of the
country which will vary temperatures slightly through the week.
Monday it will be centered near the Mississippi River. With the
strongest subsidence farther east, temperatures will be slightly less
hot. Tuesday the center of the ridge will remain to our east and
Wednesday it will begin to drift back to the west. Temperatures will
be fairly steady Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge moves back to
the west and subsidence increases, temperatures will warm a few
degrees for the second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail at all 4 TAF sites
through the period. VFR ceilings are expected with the exception
being at SAT/SSF where MVFR CIGs below 2000 ft are expected between
09Z-14Z Sunday. Otherwise, generally ESE/SE winds can be expected
along with VFR CIGs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 73 101 72 102 / 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 102 75 103 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Morris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
702 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
With a trough sitting over eastern Colorado this evening, the
latest HRRR is showing the potential for an isolated rw/trw to
form in portions of northeast Colorado. Have mentioned in
forecast update through about 03z-04z Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows
the CWA underneath a central CONUS ridge with a trough over the
western CONUS. Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
with some afternoon popcorn clouds across the area while current
surface observations show dry conditions with gusty southerly winds.
Forecast models show that while the trough moves a little to the
east, the CWA remains underneath the ridge for all of Saturday with
a southerly flow aloft. At the surface, a lee surface trough looks
to stay in just to the west of the CWA keeping a pretty good
pressure gradient which will keep the winds gusting from the south
through the evening hours and may subside overnight. Precipitation
chances look to stay off to the west as well. The daytime highs for
Saturday look to be in the middle 90s to lower 100s followed by
overnight lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
On Sunday, forecast guidance shows the CWA`s flow aloft taking a
slightly more southwesterly direction by the evening with the
western upper air trough moving closer to the CWA. A shortwave
disturbance can be seen over the western portion of the CWA by the
evening hours. At the surface, the CWA looks to see a second day of
gusty winds though perhaps maybe just a tad lighter than Saturday
with a surface low moving across northern CO. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible with these winds though green fuels and
minimum RHs look to hinder these chances. There looks to be a slight
chance for some precipitation in the CO counties during the
afternoon that spreads into the NE counties by the evening hours.
Soundings look to have an inverted-V shape during the evening though
CAPE values are low (~500 J/kg), so not anticipating severe weather
though thunderstorms may be possible. Daytime high temperatures look
to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s with overnight lows in the
lower 60s to lower 70s range.
On Monday, models show the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as
the upper air low in the base of the trough moves northeast into
Canada from the ID/MT/WY area. At the surface, a cold front looks to
move through the CWA during the nighttime hours which will allow for
some chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Once again,
inverted-V shaped soundings are seen during this time in portions of
the CWA which may indicate a possible strong winds with any storms
that develop though convective parameters do not support severe
weather at this time. This will be monitored in future forecasts
should these conditions change. Monday`s daytime high temperatures
expect to range between the upper 80s and lower 100s with overnight
lows between the middle 50s and lower 70s. Heat indices on Monday as
with the rest of the short term period look to be a few degrees
below the high temperatures mostly due to the lower daytime RH
values.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
An upper level high and ridge is across parts of TX and into the
lower MS valley region at the beginning of the long term period.
The upper level high is projected to shift west a little by
Thursday and is centered across parts of north Texas. At the
surface a surface low is projected across western Kansas by
Tuesday morning with a front just east and south of the CWA. On
Wednesday the low is projected to remain across western KS with
front is similar location just east and south of our region. A
surface trough is across NW KS into northeast Colorado. Thursday
through Saturday a surface trough is projected to be across
western KS during the period.
Models have Tri-State Region in a little more favorable region
for precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday. Then more isolated
activity Thursday into Friday as ridge shifts. Then by next
Saturday better chances of precipitation return again. Based on
data any storm that may develop could become strong and produce
locally heavy rainfall.
On Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon high temperatures will be in
the 80s and 90s. By Thursday through next Saturday afternoon high
temperatures will be in the 90s. Overnight low temperatures will
be mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s.
A little more active weather pattern will be possible early in
the extended period. The shifting of the ridge and more isolated
activity has confidence lower in the further extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the
forecast period, with strong southerly winds as main wx issue.
Winds for KGLD, south 20-30kts with gusts to 40kts before 07z
Sunday and after 13z. LLWS 07z-12z Sunday 190@45kts. Winds for
KMCK, south-southeast around 20-30kts. LLWS 06z-13z Sunday
180@45kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1111 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery weather continues through the balance of the
weekend as a trough deepens over New England. Drier air arrives
to begin the new work week with moderating temperatures
expected as ridging builds into the eastern US. A few systems
bring chances for showers this week as they round the ridge,
with more widespread showers possible by the end of the week,
depending on the track of a developing cut off low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
1110 PM Update... Just some minor tweaks to T/Td trends and
winds through tonight. Still a mixed bag of wind ranging from
stead 3-6 kts ... to 25-30 kt gusts. Also bumped up PoP across
southern new Hampshire where more steady rains are being
observed.
808 PM Update... Made some tweaks to T/Td trends as well as
upped cloud cover through this evening and overnight. Did some
more work to the PoP forecast, honing in on banded areas of
forcing pivoting around the upper level low ... which primarily
resulted in increased rain chances especially over the mountains
where a strengthening northerly wind will keep steady showers
through tomorrow. Also adjusted the wind forecast through this
evening using latest runs of the HRRR since we`re currently
seeing quite the variety of gusts... from no gusts at all in
portions of interior New Hampshire to peak gusts of 25-30 kts in
ASH/MHT through to the Seacoast. Maine is seeing a similar,
though less extreme, variety of gusts. Will keeping an eye on
the progress of the shield of rain as it pivots away from the
Connecticut Valley with decreasing shower coverage into tonight.
Previously...
Upper low now over northern Maine will slowly drift
southeastward through tonight while short wave rotates around
the western side of this feature. As the short wave rotates
around the upper low it will bring a push of NW winds across New
Hampshire into SW Maine this evening with gusts up to 35 mph
remaining possible through sunset.
The precipitation shield associated with the upper low has remained
close to stationary through this afternoon arcing from northern
Maine through Quebec and into northern Vermont. Most of the
precipitation has been confined along and upstream of the White
Mountains and western mountains of Maine as flow has generally
been blocked with froude numbers less than one. Scattered
showers have been more prevalent across eastern zones as these
areas have been closer to the center of the upper low. In
addition to a push of NW winds this evening, the short wave
will bring increasing chances for showers across western New
Hampshire this evening and this area of showers will slide into
SW Maine overnight. Temperatures tonight will be well below
normal with lows in the 40s and areas near and above 2000 feet
dropping into the 30s with potential for rain to mix with snow
at the highest peaks in the White Mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short wave rotating around the upper low tonight will lead
to a vertically stacked low pressure system in the Gulf of Maine
on Sunday. This will make for cool, cloudy, and raw day. There
will likely be rain showers across much of western Maine through
the day with precipitation chances dropping off sharply to the
west with the best chances for a mostly dry day across the lower
CT Valley. Temperatures at H8 will drop to -2C to 0C by Sunday
morning bringing chances for snow to mix with rain showers as
low as 4000 feet. It will again be a hazardous day for
unprepared hikers in the western Maine mountains and White
Mountains with wind chills dropping well below freezing above
3000 feet and precipitation expected for much of the day. For
the lower elevations highs will range from the 40s across
northern zones to the low 60s across SW New Hampshire while much
of southern Maine remains in the 50s.
The record cool high for Augusta is 55 degrees set in 1959 and
this record will be in jeopardy tomorrow with a forecast high
of 53 degrees. The record cool high for Portland is 53 degrees,
also set in 1959, and this record will be more of a stretch to
break with a forecast high of 58 degrees.
Vertically stacked low pressure system will finally pull away
from the area Sunday night. This will allow for precipitation to
end from west to east and much of the area seeing skies turning
mostly clear overnight. With a cold airmass in place, clearing
skies, and subsiding winds lows will again drop into the 40s for
much of the area with upper 30s possible in the far northern
valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...
The cool trough will still be overhead to start off the
workweek, but this gradually drifts east and then south of New
England by midweek as a ridge builds across the eastern half of
the country. Widespread record heat is expected from the Plains
to the Mid Atlantic, but New England will find itself on the
edge of this ridge for mid to late week. A gradual moderating
trend with temperatures returning to near average is expected,
with some slightly above average temperatures possible by late
in the week. New England will find itself positioned on the edge
of the ridge, so a few rounds of showers and some thunderstorms
will likely transit through the region as leftover convection
from the Canadian Prairies rounds the ridge. The trough that
departs early in the week likely evolves into a cut off low
between the Southeast US and Bermuda.
Details...
The general warming trend and increasing sunshine begins early
in the week as the trough drifts away. The first chance of
shower activity arrives late on Tuesday across western areas as
a leftover MCS drifts through New York State. Low pressure then
passes through southern Canada Wednesday night and tries to
bring a warm front through the area, but just how much progress
it makes through our area is somewhat uncertain at this time.
Western areas stand the best of getting into the warmth, but all
areas stand a chance to see some shower activity from this
system.
What would technically be considered a cold front slowly passes
through the area on Thursday, but behind this front the next
step up in warmth would follow in the moderation trend. What
leaves these details uncertain at this time is the evolution of
the cut off low pressure system off the Southeast US coast.
Ensembles are coming into stronger agreement on the development
of this feature, but the position of this system will dictate
the weather for New England. If the system is farther offshore
and the ridge is allowed to continue to build into the week,
temperatures would keep rising on southwesterly flow. However,
if the system is closer to the southeast coast, a broad
southeasterly synoptic flow would bring a tropical airmass into
the region with seasonable high temperature, but a humid
airmass with showers and warm overnight lows.
With cut off lows being a generally erratic feature on the
models in the mid to long range, it`s difficult to have much
certainty at this point in how it will evolve, but this range of
possibilities both show a continued moderating trend through
the end of the week. We`ll continue to monitor over the next few
days where this feature looks more likely to become centered.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR tonight except for MVFR cigs likely at
KHIE, with MVFR cigs also possible at KRKD and KAUG. Clouds
thicken and lower Sunday as low pressure slowly moves through
the Gulf of Maine with scattered showers. This will likely
bring MVFR to all terminals during the day except for KLEB where
VFR is most likely. Conditions improve from west to east Sunday
night as skies began to clear.
Long Term...Generally VFR conditions are expected on Monday
through midday Tuesday, then a few showers are possible across
western areas late Tuesday. Some showers are possible again
Wednesday night, but outside of these mainly VFR conditions are
likely. By the end of the week and into next weekend, widespread
onshore flow may lead to some showers, low ceilings, and
coastal fog.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Surface trough crossing the waters later this
evening will bring a surge of NW winds gusting 25 kts near
shore and up to 35 kts across the outer waters. Vertically
stacked low pressure system meanders eastward through the Gulf
of Maine Sunday maintaining NW winds gusting to 25 kts along the
outer waters through Sunday afternoon.
Long Term...Conditions are generally expected to remain below
SCA levels through midweek, but a freshening southeast flow may
bring near SCA conditions by late in the week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Casey
NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1017 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push offshore tonight bringing a
cooler and drier airmass over the area this weekend. Upper
ridging builds back over the region next week bringing a return
to hot and dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...Have bumped MinTs down a tick or two
with the cooler/drier air mass beginning to filter in over the
Nern tier of the FA a little sooner than expected. The rest of
the forecast remains on track
Previous Discussion...Mid- level shortwave pivoting across the
mid- Atlantic this afternoon as seen on GOES WV imagery is
helping nudge a secondary cold front across NC this afternoon.
Latest obs suggest the front is draped from the Albemarle
Peninsula towards Hatteras Island, and will continue to push
south into the overnight hours. There is just enough residual
low and mid- level moisture that a few iso showers are possible
mainly along OBX, but odds are too low to mention explicitly in
the forecast.
The front will push out of the area tonight with high pressure
nosing into the area from the north. Winds will stay up closer
to the waters, but inland areas will have a chance to decouple.
Unseasonably cool evening is anticipated with clear skies, and
nudged lows down into the upper 50s for inland locales, low to
mid 60s beaches. If decoupling does occur, would not be
surprised to see some temperatures make a run for the mid 50s
given forecast Tds in the upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM Sat...Upper trough will slowly meander offshore
Sunday as high pressure builds over the Midwest. Main story will
be how dry tomorrow`s airmass will be. Forecast PWATs are below
a half inch (threatening the MHX record of 0.61" for 19/12z),
and guidance suggests mixing will bring surface Tds down to
around 40 or perhaps lower. HRRR is an outlier, ushering in
upper 20s but a few upper 30s are not out of the question
tomorrow. Despite the dryness, recent rainfall and only marginal
fuel moistures preclude any real fire risk. Weak CAA knocks
highs down into the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...A highly amplified, and anomalous,
upper level pattern will kick off the medium range period, with
ridging over the Central/southern US and a developing trough
over the Northeast. In between the two, a deep northerly flow
will setup from the eastern Great Lakes to the Carolinas. This
northerly flow regime will persist through into early next week
before the upper pattern begins to break down some by the middle
of next week.
Sunday night and Monday...Notable part of the forecast is
morning low temps, which should fall into the 50s and 60s.
Across sheltered areas of the coastal plain, low to mid 50s
still appear plausible, especially Sunday night into Monday
morning when the driest air will be in place, allowing temps to
fall well below normal with high pressure overhead and light
winds. I continued to go below blended guidance for temps over
the weekend, leaning more towards the 25th percentile of
guidance, especially at night.
Tuesday through Friday...Going into next week, the anomalous
upper level ridge to our west will begin to break down/flatten
some, while also expanding east. The net effect locally is more
of a westerly flow developing aloft. Within the developing
westerly flow, a plume of warmer temps/higher thicknesses will
overspread the Central Appalachians and potentially work east
towards the Mid- Atlantic Coast. Most model guidance agree on
this, although some model guidance hold onto the northerly flow
a bit longer which, in turn, would delay the return of warmer,
above normal temps next week. At the moment, consensus guidance
shows NWrly flow across the region midweek, which would support
upper 90s with a few locations pushing towards/reaching 100.
Given current model trends, opted to lean towards warmer
solutions this round. Low- mid level moisture gradually
returns, but more in a delayed return fashion, so heat indices
won`t immediately jump back up (compared to this weekend). By
mid to late week, increasing moisture and instability may lead
to a return of isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
convection.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 715 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR flight cats
through the period. Yesterday`s cold front continues to linger
south of all terminals this afternoon while a secondary front is
approaching EWN. Somewhat gusty northerly winds will be
possible behind this boundary across area terminals with a few
infrequent gusts to around 20 kt. FEW-SCT CU will persist ahead
of the front. Iso showers possible with lingering elevated
moisture, but the greatest chance of this occuring is along the
coast/offshore, E of TAF sites.
Light northerly winds tonight and continued dry air advection
precludes any fog threat overnight. Nerly winds increase soon
after sunrise with gusty conditions again probable especially
for the inner coastal plain. 18Z model suite shows a dry column
persisting through the day tomorrow with a diurnal CU field
appearing unlikely. Some upper level clouds stream in overnight
tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through
Tuesday as high pressure dominates the region, with no major
aviation impacts expected. Increasing moisture and instability
may lead to a return of isolated afternoon and evening SHRA and
TSRA by midweek, though precip confidence remains low.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 1000 PM Saturday...Have extended the SCA for Nern waters
and introduced a new SCA for coastal waters between Ocracoke
Inlet and Cape Hatteras due to 25 kt gusts and buoy data showing
seas reaching 6 to 7 ft.
Previous Discussion...Secondary cold front is beginning to
cross area waters this afternoon, with northeasterly winds of
10-15 kt north of Cape Hatteras but generally light and variable
flow around 5-10 kt south. Front is expected to push across all
waters later this afternoon with uniform northeasterly winds
across all zones.
Beyond tonight, high pressure builds towards the waters on
Sunday with northerly winds easing to around 10 kt or so through
the day. Seas north of Hatteras hover around 3-5 feet, 2-3 feet
south.
LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 405 AM Saturday...Nrly flow relaxes Sunday, allowing seas
to subside to 2-4 ft Sunday aftn and 2-3 ft by Monday. Light
Nrly flow will persist across the northern waters Monday with
WNWrly winds turning SWrly across the southern waters in the
aftn. SW flow becomes prevailing across all waters Tue and Tue
night, reaching 20 kts in the evening and seas gradually
building to 3-5 ft. Winds relax once again Wed with seas
returning to 2-3 ft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A dry and unusually cool airmass moving into the area may lead
to temperatures coming close to, or breaking, record lows Monday
morning, June 20th. Below are the locations with the greatest
risk of seeing record or near-record temperatures then.
Record Low temps for 6/20 (Monday morning)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 58/2016 (KEWN ASOS)
Greenville 54/1979 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston 51/1900 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 57/2016 (KNCA ASOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...ML/RCF
AVIATION...MS/ML/CEB
MARINE...MS/ML/CEB/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Anomalously dry airmass across the Tennessee valley and
Appalachians. PWs are very dry (between 0.4 and 0.6 inch). Looking
at the SPC PW climatology shows this range well below the 10
percentile moving average for mid to late June, essentially near
the daily min.
Surface ridge will continue to build into the area with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 20s and 30s. Relative humidity will fall
into the teens to mid 20s. The latest HRRR model actually has
dewpoints falling into the teens. Conditions Sunday will feel more
like the desert southwest United States then typical southern
Appalachian humidity.
Current forecast looks on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR conditions are expected at CHA, TYS, and TRI through the
forecast period. Building surface ridging has kept northerly winds
breezy today but weaker for Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 87 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 84 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 84 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 80 53 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
829 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...A gradual warming trend will begin on Sunday as high
pressure begins to build over the region. More robust warming is
anticipated Monday into Tuesday with the interior reaching into
the mid/upper 90s with the region`s warmest locations peaking
between 100-105 deg F on Tuesday. Temperatures cool slightly late
week yet remain above seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 08:28 PM PDT Saturday...Another late
afternoon/early evening of weather excitement as showers and
thunderstorms developed over Napa/Yolo/Solano counties. Most of
the activity was on the periphery of Napa county, but a few
showers did manage to enter the county. Since then shower activity
has diminished and the radar has been put into clear air mode.
For tonight - a few low clouds will be possible along the coast
and locally inland, especially Monterey Bay region. HREF model is
the most aggressive with potential low clouds while the HRRR less
so. Official( NBM ) forecast will lean toward the HRRR with some
developing stratus.
For Father`s Day and Juneteenth - expect any morning low clouds
to dissipated by mid morning giving way to ample sunshine in the
afternoon. Additionally, the cooler weather as of late will come
to an end. Temperatures on Sunday will warm closer to seasonal
averages with highs in 60s/70s at the coast and 70s/mid 80s
inland. A solid seabreeze again in the afternoon leading to breezy
conditions along the coast, higher peaks, coastal gaps, and
inland passes. Despite some wind it will be a pleasant Sunday for
outdoor activities.
The weather impacts for the upcoming days will be hot weather
returning and increased fire weather concerns. Be weather aware
the next few days as forecast details are fine tuned. Current
forecast shows peak heat on Tuesday, which could rival the June
10 heat even. More info below...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 01:51 PM PDT Saturday...As the
aforementioned mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the
Intermountain West on Sunday, high pressure over the eastern
Pacific will build toward the coastline. This will result in
temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s across the interior
while 60s and 70s hold near the coast in response to continued
onshore flow. Temperatures rapidly warm on Monday and even more so
on Tuesday with 850 mb temperatures approaching and then
exceeding 20 deg C. This will bring more widespread 80s to lower
90s across the interior on Monday and mid/upper 90s to around 105
deg F in the region`s warmest locations on Tuesday. Meanwhile,
coastal areas will be cooler due to continued onshore flow albeit
weak. Having said that, still expecting temperatures near the
coast to be 5-10 deg F above seasonal averages with the interior
running 15-20 deg F above on Tuesday. Confidence is high that
Tuesday will be the warmest of the week with the ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index (EFI) is showing values of 0.7-0.9 along much of
the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast by 00Z Wednesday.
Onshore flow is expected to increase slightly on Wednesday
allowing for temperatures too cool by a few degrees region-wide.
However, the air mass aloft remains very warm into the end of the
week resulting in only a gradual cooling trend. Expecting Heat
Risk levels to reach moderate for interior areas from Tuesday into
Thursday, meaning those sensitive to heat should take precautions
to seek adequate cooling during peak daytime heating and stay
hydrated.
Dry weather conditions will also prevail region-wide through the
forecast period, aside from those isolated showers/t-storms in the
short-term mentioned earlier. We will continue to monitor the
heat expected next week and the need for any heat related
products. In the meantime, be sure to prepare for much warmer and
drier conditions through much of the upcoming week. Stay tuned...
&&
.AVIATION...as of 7:05 PM PDT Saturday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR
conditions prevailing this evening, weak surface based instability
and widely scattered convective clouds (mainly small cumulus clouds)
are capped by some warming aloft i.e temperature inversion. With
the loss of diurnal surface warming post sunset, convective clouds
will dissipate.
Earlier NAM, WRF, HRRR model output are ambitious with boundary
layer humidity forecasts at least for the evening, later in the
evening once nocturnal cooling sets in at least patchy coastal low
clouds /MVFR-IFR/ are likely to redevelop. Additional warming
aloft will provide the temperature cap for low clouds to form.
We`re in the longest daylight hours of the year currently and with
residual diurnal warming into the evening it`s near high
confidence VFR holds through mid to late evening, then low to
moderate confidence on areal coverage of low clouds late tonight
and Sunday morning. It`s clear over the coastal waters presently,
at the buoys air temps are greater than sea surface temps thus
heat flux is downward and dewpoint temps are several degrees below
sea surface temps and upward flux of water vapor (evaporation) is
there, but so far insufficient to support low clouds. Development
of low clouds out over the coastal waters tonight will likely be
slow, at least at first. Will see what 00z guidance forecasts and
adjust tafs accordingly if more in the way of low clouds look more
probable. Otherwise VFR Sunday, onshore winds strengthening again
in the afternoon and evening.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR, west wind increased to airport weather
warning criteria during the evening, peak gust so far 38
knots/0046z. Not an easy forecast for wind this evening, SFO-SAC
pressure gradient so far peaking 3.0 mb while Crissy Field webcam
showed gusty winds through the Golden Gate late afternoon
suggesting winds could`ve held just below criteria at SFO this
evening just as well. An airport weather warning was issued 2316z
/4:16 pm/ which lasts until 05z /10 pm/. Few-sct clouds forecast
late tonight and Sunday morning, low to moderate confidence VFR
continues through Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR for the remainder
of Sunday along with a return of gusty west wind 20 to 30 knots.
KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues into the
evening since west to northwest winds against nearby higher
coastal terrain along with residual diurnal surface warming is
resulting in scattered to broken low clouds /small cumulus clouds/
mainly inland away from the terminals. With the loss of diurnal
surface warming post sunset low clouds will dissipate. Challenging
forecast ahead for the night and early Sunday morning determining
timing of low cloud redevelopment closer to the terminals. KMRY/KSNS
tempo groups indicate sct-bkn low cloud coverage /MVFR-IFR/ overnight.
A return of surface diurnal warming Sunday will mix out the low
clouds to VFR during the morning, VFR Sunday afternoon and early
evening. West to northwest winds through the 00z taf cycle, winds
easing at night to 5 to 10 knots resuming to 10 to 20 knots in the
afternoon and early evening.
&&
.MARINE...as of 5:17 PM PDT Saturday...Northwest winds featuring
stronger wind gusts will make for hazardous seas for smaller
vessels. Strongest gusts will be located along the immediate
coastline where the terrain can help accelerate the winds. A
moderate period northwest swell arrives Sunday evening to mix in
with the wind driven seas, while a weak southerly swell also
remains in the background. Northwest windy conditions are forecast
to remain through the early part of next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/RGass
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: DK
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
840 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022
.EVENING UPDATE... The previous forecast remains on track with just
a few minor changes based off the latest guidance. So far late this
afternoon and evening the bulk of the shower activity has been
focused near the Cascade crests and over parts of the Columbia Basin
near Benton County into the Simcoe Mountains and eastern Yakima
Valley. With the loss of diurnal heating and the axis of the
elongated trough overhead slowly shifting east this activity
should decrease and weaken overnight. Have trended towards the
HRRR solution into Sunday morning as it seems to have had a better
handle on the showers today, especially over the Columbia Basin,
compared to other guidance. Otherwise, expect continued pop-up
showers near the Cascade crests and portions of the eastern
Mountains into Wallowa County on Sunday as the trough lumbers
towards Idaho. Drier and warmer conditions return Monday through
the rest of the work week. 99
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022/
SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday...Water vapor imagery
currently showing a low pressure system centered over south central
Oregon, bringing with it bands of light showers across the Basin and
eastern mountains. Showers straddling the Oregon and Washington
border in the Basin have lingered through much of the day, while
convective cells across the northern Blues and Wallowas have been
much more spotty and short-lived. Have seen a few lightning strikes
associated with these cells over Wallowa County, but otherwise areas
have seen mostly light to moderate rain with isolated to scattered
coverage, a trend expected to continue into the early evening as the
bulk of instability and moisture transport falls to the east of our
forecast area.
Latest CAMs suggesting more convective development could form over
the John Day/Ochoco Highlands later in the afternoon, however cloud
cover across these areas has been pretty extensive much of the day,
working to cool temperatures quite a bit compared to forecasted
highs. Still plenty of moisture and lift available given the low`s
position near the area, but expecting primarily showers rather than
thunderstorms, if anything does form. Models then wind down shower
activity by nightfall, as the upper-level low pushes further
eastward and leaves us within drier N/NW flow aloft heading into
Sunday.
Could see some light upslope showers along the Cascade crests and
some convective activity across eastern Wallowa County Sunday as
models bring the low in overhead for the latter, but chances are low
and largely expecting Sunday to be quiet. Breezy winds, which have
prevailed across the Gorge, Basin, and Kittitas Valley today, will
continue into Sunday, with gusts approaching 30 mph for some of
these areas, possibly higher for the Kittitas Valley. As this upper-
level low continues to lift northeastward, a cutoff low will drop
south into California and leave us within a dry slot to start off
the work week. Monday will begin the onset of a warming trend as the
synoptic pattern begins to shift towards more zonal heading into
later in the week. Evans/74
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Guidance in fairly good
agreement of a mostly quiet weather pattern through the extended
period. Tuesday, flow aloft will become zonal as an upper low
meanders across northern to central BC and a dissipating cut-off
low dives south along the CA border. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance do indicate a shortwave with a dissipating frontal
boundary rounding the upper low and passing across northern WA
late Wednesday through Thursday morning, however if any
precipitation does result it will be mostly to our north. That
said, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis do indicate a very
low chance for rain showers to develop across the WA Cascades
during that period. Everywhere else, breezy west winds will
develop as the remnants of a frontal boundary push south and east
across the area. Thursday into the weekend, the low to our north
will push into central Canada while high pressure aloft builds
along the west coast. Flow aloft will initially be zonal through
late Thursday, with a slight turn to the southwest late Friday
into Saturday as high pressure attempts amplify in the eastern
Pacific. Though conditions will be dry and warm during this
period, the southwest flow could result in precipitation chances
over next weekend, though ensemble guidance depicts this chance as
very low at this time. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will
generally be in the 70s to 80s through the period, though the
Columbia Basin could make a run for the lower 90s on Wednesday
afternoon. Lawhorn/82
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the
period. Some showers through this evening end overnight and then
develop again Sunday possible impacting PDT and ALW. Occasional
CIGS of SCT-BKN AOA 6kft to 10kft AGL. Winds will generally be
10-20kts with gusts up to 25kts at times through this evening then
decreasing to 5-10kts overnight. Winds back up to 10-20kts on
Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 49 71 49 75 / 20 10 0 0
ALW 51 70 52 74 / 30 10 0 0
PSC 54 75 54 78 / 30 10 0 0
YKM 47 73 47 76 / 30 0 0 0
HRI 51 75 52 79 / 30 10 0 0
ELN 48 66 50 69 / 10 10 0 0
RDM 41 65 41 73 / 10 10 0 0
LGD 44 61 44 68 / 20 20 10 0
GCD 42 61 43 70 / 30 10 0 0
DLS 52 70 52 75 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....82
AVIATION...82