Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/19/22

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
930 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from the west through Monday, becoming centered off the Southeast coast through Thursday. The next cold front approaches late Thursday, then stalls over the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Saturday... Any evening clouds dissipate, then clear and cool tonight as the high builds in from the nw. Gusty NW winds early this evening diminish after sunset this evening, and become 10 kt or less overnight. Chilly for mid-late June but no records expected (see CLI section below). Lows from the upr 40s/~50 NW to near 60 along the SE coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Saturday... Another mstly sunny day Sun with low humidity as high pres builds south across the Gt Lakes rgn. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s except mid 70s at the beaches. Mstly clr Sun night. Lows in the 50s to near 60 sern beach areas. Mstly sunny Mon as the high crosses the mts. Highs upr 70s-lwr 80s. Lows Mon night upr 50s- lwr 60s. The high pushes SSE of the area Tue. Return sw flow allows the summer heat to return. Highs upr 80s-lwr 90s inland, low-mid 80s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM EDT Saturday... High pres remains across the se thru the week with a cold front approaching from the NW Thurs night. Low confidence after that as the models offer up different solutions on how far south the bndry gets due to low pressure progged to develop along it. What this scenario will do is increase moisture off the Atlantic resulting in unsettled conditions later this week. Will carry 20-30% diurnal PoP Wed due to sct convection developing along a sfc trof east of the mts. Highs 90-95 inland, mid-upr 80s near the water. Lows 65-70. 20-30% PoP Thurs (highest west) ahead of approaching cold front. Highs 85-90 inland, 80-85 along the coast. Low chc PoPs cont Thurs night as the front moves into the region. Lows 65-70. Unsettled Fri/Sat (chc PoPs) as the front lingers across the region combined with moisture from the low. Highs 85-90, lows 65-70. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 645 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals anticipated to persist through the forecast period. Surface high pressure builds across the region from the NW. SCT-BKN AC/CU deck at 6-7K FT will dissipate with loss of daytime heating. Gusty NW winds at 15-25 kts continue into early evening, then diminish to 10 kts or less overnight, before resuming at ~15-20 kts after diurnal heating resumes on Sun. A thin veil of CI/AC noses back in west of the terminals Sunday aftn into Sunday night, but again AOA 10 KFT AGL. OUTLOOK... VFR conditions continue through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers across the area Sun/Mon then builds over the southeast and off the Mid Atlantic coast through midweek. A cold front approaches late Thursday. Localized sub- VFR conditions in showers and T-storms possible Wed/Thu aftn and evening. && .MARINE... As of 930 PM EDT Saturday... Winds speeds this evening continue to go through periods of increased and slightly decreased speeds. The HRRR has been capturing this rather well, at least the trend. Guidance suggests that while this trend in decreasing wind was occurring around 9 pm, northerly winds will increase again overnight and into early Sunday with another surge of cool dry air. Confidence is not real high, but have kept the SCAs up for everywhere but the rivers. The Bay will still seeing winds of 15 to 20 kt gusting to 25 kt and even stronger at the mouth of the Bay. Seas have built to 4-5ft. Winds will then diminish to 10-15kt for most locations by later Sunday afternoon. High pressure will then build into the region to start the new week, giving way to mostly light and variable winds, and waves and seas around 1 to 2 ft respectively. Winds look to become more southerly Tuesday into Wednesday, with rain chances possibly returning by mid to late week. Additionally, a moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the remainder of today and Sunday for the southern VA and NE NC beaches. && .CLIMATE... Chilly overnight, but no record lows anticipated in the coming days. However for reference, we`ve included record lows for 6/19: RIC 50 in 1965 ORF 51 in 1961 SBY 44 in 1999 ECG 53 in 1965 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR/MAM MARINE...JKP/JAO CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
940 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Forecast remains on track as we have had weak thunderstorm activity that has moved across the NE Panhandle, and our western forecast zones west of the Laramie Range this evening. Temperatures look to be on track also with a gradual downward trend, especially where the light rain shower activity has occurred already this evening. With a dry air mass trending toward a more moist air mass this evening, elevated to strong wind gusts are still possible across the higher terrain and wind prone areas of Carbon and Albany County. Observations have shown gusts between 45-55+mph across several locations in Carbon County this evening. Scattered rain showers are likely west of the Laramie Range this evening into the overnight hours, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Expect overnight lows in the 50s and 60s overnight, with the highest mountain peaks west of the Laramie Range potentially dipping into the middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Latest GOES 16 WV imagery shows a deep upper-level low centered over OR with an elongated moisture stream extending northward from the tropics through AZ/NM into eastern WY. With increased moisture across the area, much of the CWA is under cloudy skies. Most locations reached daily max temperatures before noon today with the cloud cover increasing in coverage. Portions of the Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River valley reached the upper 90s. Light showers have developed from Cheyenne towards Scottsbluff and down to Kimball and should continue this afternoon. Storms continue to develop farther south over the CO Rockies this afternoon with better mid-level moisture moving north towards the CWA later in the afternoon and this evening. Hi-res guidance increases storm coverage over Carbon and Albany counties after 6pm tonight. Latest RAP forecast MLCAPE values look fairly marginal which should help limit intensity of potential rainfall, especially over the higher terrain and Mullen Burn Scar area. The upper low will continue to slowly progress eastward with another chance for precipitation Sunday across the area. Upper level flow will increase leading to faster storm motions and increase shear to near 40 kt with instability to 800 J/kg (MLCAPE). This will lead to the potential for a few strong to severe storms as winds will be the main threat. SPC expanded the Day 2 Marginal Risk to include more areas along and east of the Laramie Range. While flooding potential is low with quicker storm motions for most locations, will need to monitor sensitive areas such as the Mullen Burn Scar near the Snowy Range. PWs look to climb 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal with this monsoonal-like pattern. Latest hi-res guidance continues to paint highest QPF amounts (1"+) along the South Laramie Range east of Laramie, while areas over the Snowy Range could see around 0.30" according to the latest HREF QPF PMM. This is a slightly eastward shift compared to earlier guidance. Additionally, 90th percentile QPF from NBM v4.1 only highlights 0.25" over the Snowy Range. Considered issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the Mullen BurnScar area through Sunday evening, but ultimately decided to hold off for reasons listed above. Upcoming shifts should continue to monitor latest forecast and observational trends in case any headlines are needed. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Confidence is currently low. 2) Low chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm in the southern Nebraska panhandle late Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon. 3) Hot and mostly dry conditions until Friday. Warming temperature trend Tuesday through Friday. DISCUSSION: Monday as the trough moves off to the northeast, there`s a lingering chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two in southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle through the afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday we move into a more zonal flow with hot and mostly dry conditions. There is a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two, but currently chances and confidence are low due to limited moisture and instability. Best chances are in the Nebraska panhandle. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s with low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. A trough is set to move from the PACNW with the southern end briefly touching our CWA Friday. Over the weekend models are showing the trough tapping into some better moisture, increasing the precipitation chances. Confidence is currently low on how widespread and how impactful this precipitation will be. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 VFR conditions expected at all TAF terminals through the TAF period with gusty winds 25 to 35 knots through the day. Due to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, visibility may lower to MVFR or IFR if a shower or thunderstorm tracks directly over a terminal. Confidence is low today on locations for showers and thunderstorms. AMD are likely as confidence grows and we start to see more development. In addition, gusty and erratic winds can be expected around showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should mostly be cleared out between 04Z and 06Z tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Showers and thunderstorms continue today and Sunday across the area with cloud cover, however drier low levels have kept afternoon RHs near 20 percent. Increased moisture expected Sunday with breezy conditions near any showers and storms. Slightly cooler, but still near normal temperatures expected early this week before warming back up mid-to-late week leading to afternoon RHs near critical levels. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...BW SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...LK AVIATION...LK FIRE WEATHER...MB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Skies are mostly clear this afternoon with just some minimal cumulus clouds in the southern counties. The HRRR does show some very minor development of some very isolated light showers later this afternoon, but nothing appreciable is expected and will keep the forecast dry with overall PoPs less than 10 percent. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s at the present time for most areas and we should see highs later this afternoon topping out in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. For tonight, expect some cloud cover in the southern counties once again by morning as low-level moisture slightly increases. Lows will be in the 70s for most locations. High-res models do show additional very isolated showers tomorrow but overall chances will be less than 20 percent and will not mention anything in the forecast, but some lucky person may see liquid droplets falling from the sky. Highs are once again expected to be in the in the upper 90s to near 102 degrees. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies should prevail tomorrow night with lows ranging from near 70 in the Hill Country to the upper 70s in the west. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 The strong upper level ridge will continue to control the weather pattern next week. It will continue to suppress any chance for convection. It will wobble back and forth over the middle of the country which will vary temperatures slightly through the week. Monday it will be centered near the Mississippi River. With the strongest subsidence farther east, temperatures will be slightly less hot. Tuesday the center of the ridge will remain to our east and Wednesday it will begin to drift back to the west. Temperatures will be fairly steady Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge moves back to the west and subsidence increases, temperatures will warm a few degrees for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail at all 4 TAF sites through the period. VFR ceilings are expected with the exception being at SAT/SSF where MVFR CIGs below 2000 ft are expected between 09Z-14Z Sunday. Otherwise, generally ESE/SE winds can be expected along with VFR CIGs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 101 72 102 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 102 75 103 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...05 Aviation...Morris
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
702 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 With a trough sitting over eastern Colorado this evening, the latest HRRR is showing the potential for an isolated rw/trw to form in portions of northeast Colorado. Have mentioned in forecast update through about 03z-04z Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows the CWA underneath a central CONUS ridge with a trough over the western CONUS. Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with some afternoon popcorn clouds across the area while current surface observations show dry conditions with gusty southerly winds. Forecast models show that while the trough moves a little to the east, the CWA remains underneath the ridge for all of Saturday with a southerly flow aloft. At the surface, a lee surface trough looks to stay in just to the west of the CWA keeping a pretty good pressure gradient which will keep the winds gusting from the south through the evening hours and may subside overnight. Precipitation chances look to stay off to the west as well. The daytime highs for Saturday look to be in the middle 90s to lower 100s followed by overnight lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. On Sunday, forecast guidance shows the CWA`s flow aloft taking a slightly more southwesterly direction by the evening with the western upper air trough moving closer to the CWA. A shortwave disturbance can be seen over the western portion of the CWA by the evening hours. At the surface, the CWA looks to see a second day of gusty winds though perhaps maybe just a tad lighter than Saturday with a surface low moving across northern CO. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible with these winds though green fuels and minimum RHs look to hinder these chances. There looks to be a slight chance for some precipitation in the CO counties during the afternoon that spreads into the NE counties by the evening hours. Soundings look to have an inverted-V shape during the evening though CAPE values are low (~500 J/kg), so not anticipating severe weather though thunderstorms may be possible. Daytime high temperatures look to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s with overnight lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s range. On Monday, models show the CWA having a southwesterly flow aloft as the upper air low in the base of the trough moves northeast into Canada from the ID/MT/WY area. At the surface, a cold front looks to move through the CWA during the nighttime hours which will allow for some chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Once again, inverted-V shaped soundings are seen during this time in portions of the CWA which may indicate a possible strong winds with any storms that develop though convective parameters do not support severe weather at this time. This will be monitored in future forecasts should these conditions change. Monday`s daytime high temperatures expect to range between the upper 80s and lower 100s with overnight lows between the middle 50s and lower 70s. Heat indices on Monday as with the rest of the short term period look to be a few degrees below the high temperatures mostly due to the lower daytime RH values. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 An upper level high and ridge is across parts of TX and into the lower MS valley region at the beginning of the long term period. The upper level high is projected to shift west a little by Thursday and is centered across parts of north Texas. At the surface a surface low is projected across western Kansas by Tuesday morning with a front just east and south of the CWA. On Wednesday the low is projected to remain across western KS with front is similar location just east and south of our region. A surface trough is across NW KS into northeast Colorado. Thursday through Saturday a surface trough is projected to be across western KS during the period. Models have Tri-State Region in a little more favorable region for precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday. Then more isolated activity Thursday into Friday as ridge shifts. Then by next Saturday better chances of precipitation return again. Based on data any storm that may develop could become strong and produce locally heavy rainfall. On Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s. By Thursday through next Saturday afternoon high temperatures will be in the 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A little more active weather pattern will be possible early in the extended period. The shifting of the ridge and more isolated activity has confidence lower in the further extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the forecast period, with strong southerly winds as main wx issue. Winds for KGLD, south 20-30kts with gusts to 40kts before 07z Sunday and after 13z. LLWS 07z-12z Sunday 190@45kts. Winds for KMCK, south-southeast around 20-30kts. LLWS 06z-13z Sunday 180@45kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...EH AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1111 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and showery weather continues through the balance of the weekend as a trough deepens over New England. Drier air arrives to begin the new work week with moderating temperatures expected as ridging builds into the eastern US. A few systems bring chances for showers this week as they round the ridge, with more widespread showers possible by the end of the week, depending on the track of a developing cut off low. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 1110 PM Update... Just some minor tweaks to T/Td trends and winds through tonight. Still a mixed bag of wind ranging from stead 3-6 kts ... to 25-30 kt gusts. Also bumped up PoP across southern new Hampshire where more steady rains are being observed. 808 PM Update... Made some tweaks to T/Td trends as well as upped cloud cover through this evening and overnight. Did some more work to the PoP forecast, honing in on banded areas of forcing pivoting around the upper level low ... which primarily resulted in increased rain chances especially over the mountains where a strengthening northerly wind will keep steady showers through tomorrow. Also adjusted the wind forecast through this evening using latest runs of the HRRR since we`re currently seeing quite the variety of gusts... from no gusts at all in portions of interior New Hampshire to peak gusts of 25-30 kts in ASH/MHT through to the Seacoast. Maine is seeing a similar, though less extreme, variety of gusts. Will keeping an eye on the progress of the shield of rain as it pivots away from the Connecticut Valley with decreasing shower coverage into tonight. Previously... Upper low now over northern Maine will slowly drift southeastward through tonight while short wave rotates around the western side of this feature. As the short wave rotates around the upper low it will bring a push of NW winds across New Hampshire into SW Maine this evening with gusts up to 35 mph remaining possible through sunset. The precipitation shield associated with the upper low has remained close to stationary through this afternoon arcing from northern Maine through Quebec and into northern Vermont. Most of the precipitation has been confined along and upstream of the White Mountains and western mountains of Maine as flow has generally been blocked with froude numbers less than one. Scattered showers have been more prevalent across eastern zones as these areas have been closer to the center of the upper low. In addition to a push of NW winds this evening, the short wave will bring increasing chances for showers across western New Hampshire this evening and this area of showers will slide into SW Maine overnight. Temperatures tonight will be well below normal with lows in the 40s and areas near and above 2000 feet dropping into the 30s with potential for rain to mix with snow at the highest peaks in the White Mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short wave rotating around the upper low tonight will lead to a vertically stacked low pressure system in the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. This will make for cool, cloudy, and raw day. There will likely be rain showers across much of western Maine through the day with precipitation chances dropping off sharply to the west with the best chances for a mostly dry day across the lower CT Valley. Temperatures at H8 will drop to -2C to 0C by Sunday morning bringing chances for snow to mix with rain showers as low as 4000 feet. It will again be a hazardous day for unprepared hikers in the western Maine mountains and White Mountains with wind chills dropping well below freezing above 3000 feet and precipitation expected for much of the day. For the lower elevations highs will range from the 40s across northern zones to the low 60s across SW New Hampshire while much of southern Maine remains in the 50s. The record cool high for Augusta is 55 degrees set in 1959 and this record will be in jeopardy tomorrow with a forecast high of 53 degrees. The record cool high for Portland is 53 degrees, also set in 1959, and this record will be more of a stretch to break with a forecast high of 58 degrees. Vertically stacked low pressure system will finally pull away from the area Sunday night. This will allow for precipitation to end from west to east and much of the area seeing skies turning mostly clear overnight. With a cold airmass in place, clearing skies, and subsiding winds lows will again drop into the 40s for much of the area with upper 30s possible in the far northern valleys. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview... The cool trough will still be overhead to start off the workweek, but this gradually drifts east and then south of New England by midweek as a ridge builds across the eastern half of the country. Widespread record heat is expected from the Plains to the Mid Atlantic, but New England will find itself on the edge of this ridge for mid to late week. A gradual moderating trend with temperatures returning to near average is expected, with some slightly above average temperatures possible by late in the week. New England will find itself positioned on the edge of the ridge, so a few rounds of showers and some thunderstorms will likely transit through the region as leftover convection from the Canadian Prairies rounds the ridge. The trough that departs early in the week likely evolves into a cut off low between the Southeast US and Bermuda. Details... The general warming trend and increasing sunshine begins early in the week as the trough drifts away. The first chance of shower activity arrives late on Tuesday across western areas as a leftover MCS drifts through New York State. Low pressure then passes through southern Canada Wednesday night and tries to bring a warm front through the area, but just how much progress it makes through our area is somewhat uncertain at this time. Western areas stand the best of getting into the warmth, but all areas stand a chance to see some shower activity from this system. What would technically be considered a cold front slowly passes through the area on Thursday, but behind this front the next step up in warmth would follow in the moderation trend. What leaves these details uncertain at this time is the evolution of the cut off low pressure system off the Southeast US coast. Ensembles are coming into stronger agreement on the development of this feature, but the position of this system will dictate the weather for New England. If the system is farther offshore and the ridge is allowed to continue to build into the week, temperatures would keep rising on southwesterly flow. However, if the system is closer to the southeast coast, a broad southeasterly synoptic flow would bring a tropical airmass into the region with seasonable high temperature, but a humid airmass with showers and warm overnight lows. With cut off lows being a generally erratic feature on the models in the mid to long range, it`s difficult to have much certainty at this point in how it will evolve, but this range of possibilities both show a continued moderating trend through the end of the week. We`ll continue to monitor over the next few days where this feature looks more likely to become centered. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR tonight except for MVFR cigs likely at KHIE, with MVFR cigs also possible at KRKD and KAUG. Clouds thicken and lower Sunday as low pressure slowly moves through the Gulf of Maine with scattered showers. This will likely bring MVFR to all terminals during the day except for KLEB where VFR is most likely. Conditions improve from west to east Sunday night as skies began to clear. Long Term...Generally VFR conditions are expected on Monday through midday Tuesday, then a few showers are possible across western areas late Tuesday. Some showers are possible again Wednesday night, but outside of these mainly VFR conditions are likely. By the end of the week and into next weekend, widespread onshore flow may lead to some showers, low ceilings, and coastal fog. && .MARINE... Short Term...Surface trough crossing the waters later this evening will bring a surge of NW winds gusting 25 kts near shore and up to 35 kts across the outer waters. Vertically stacked low pressure system meanders eastward through the Gulf of Maine Sunday maintaining NW winds gusting to 25 kts along the outer waters through Sunday afternoon. Long Term...Conditions are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through midweek, but a freshening southeast flow may bring near SCA conditions by late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ UPDATE...Casey NEAR/SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1017 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to push offshore tonight bringing a cooler and drier airmass over the area this weekend. Upper ridging builds back over the region next week bringing a return to hot and dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 700 PM Saturday...Have bumped MinTs down a tick or two with the cooler/drier air mass beginning to filter in over the Nern tier of the FA a little sooner than expected. The rest of the forecast remains on track Previous Discussion...Mid- level shortwave pivoting across the mid- Atlantic this afternoon as seen on GOES WV imagery is helping nudge a secondary cold front across NC this afternoon. Latest obs suggest the front is draped from the Albemarle Peninsula towards Hatteras Island, and will continue to push south into the overnight hours. There is just enough residual low and mid- level moisture that a few iso showers are possible mainly along OBX, but odds are too low to mention explicitly in the forecast. The front will push out of the area tonight with high pressure nosing into the area from the north. Winds will stay up closer to the waters, but inland areas will have a chance to decouple. Unseasonably cool evening is anticipated with clear skies, and nudged lows down into the upper 50s for inland locales, low to mid 60s beaches. If decoupling does occur, would not be surprised to see some temperatures make a run for the mid 50s given forecast Tds in the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM Sat...Upper trough will slowly meander offshore Sunday as high pressure builds over the Midwest. Main story will be how dry tomorrow`s airmass will be. Forecast PWATs are below a half inch (threatening the MHX record of 0.61" for 19/12z), and guidance suggests mixing will bring surface Tds down to around 40 or perhaps lower. HRRR is an outlier, ushering in upper 20s but a few upper 30s are not out of the question tomorrow. Despite the dryness, recent rainfall and only marginal fuel moistures preclude any real fire risk. Weak CAA knocks highs down into the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday...A highly amplified, and anomalous, upper level pattern will kick off the medium range period, with ridging over the Central/southern US and a developing trough over the Northeast. In between the two, a deep northerly flow will setup from the eastern Great Lakes to the Carolinas. This northerly flow regime will persist through into early next week before the upper pattern begins to break down some by the middle of next week. Sunday night and Monday...Notable part of the forecast is morning low temps, which should fall into the 50s and 60s. Across sheltered areas of the coastal plain, low to mid 50s still appear plausible, especially Sunday night into Monday morning when the driest air will be in place, allowing temps to fall well below normal with high pressure overhead and light winds. I continued to go below blended guidance for temps over the weekend, leaning more towards the 25th percentile of guidance, especially at night. Tuesday through Friday...Going into next week, the anomalous upper level ridge to our west will begin to break down/flatten some, while also expanding east. The net effect locally is more of a westerly flow developing aloft. Within the developing westerly flow, a plume of warmer temps/higher thicknesses will overspread the Central Appalachians and potentially work east towards the Mid- Atlantic Coast. Most model guidance agree on this, although some model guidance hold onto the northerly flow a bit longer which, in turn, would delay the return of warmer, above normal temps next week. At the moment, consensus guidance shows NWrly flow across the region midweek, which would support upper 90s with a few locations pushing towards/reaching 100. Given current model trends, opted to lean towards warmer solutions this round. Low- mid level moisture gradually returns, but more in a delayed return fashion, so heat indices won`t immediately jump back up (compared to this weekend). By mid to late week, increasing moisture and instability may lead to a return of isolated to scattered diurnally-driven convection. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 715 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR flight cats through the period. Yesterday`s cold front continues to linger south of all terminals this afternoon while a secondary front is approaching EWN. Somewhat gusty northerly winds will be possible behind this boundary across area terminals with a few infrequent gusts to around 20 kt. FEW-SCT CU will persist ahead of the front. Iso showers possible with lingering elevated moisture, but the greatest chance of this occuring is along the coast/offshore, E of TAF sites. Light northerly winds tonight and continued dry air advection precludes any fog threat overnight. Nerly winds increase soon after sunrise with gusty conditions again probable especially for the inner coastal plain. 18Z model suite shows a dry column persisting through the day tomorrow with a diurnal CU field appearing unlikely. Some upper level clouds stream in overnight tomorrow. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 400 AM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday as high pressure dominates the region, with no major aviation impacts expected. Increasing moisture and instability may lead to a return of isolated afternoon and evening SHRA and TSRA by midweek, though precip confidence remains low. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 1000 PM Saturday...Have extended the SCA for Nern waters and introduced a new SCA for coastal waters between Ocracoke Inlet and Cape Hatteras due to 25 kt gusts and buoy data showing seas reaching 6 to 7 ft. Previous Discussion...Secondary cold front is beginning to cross area waters this afternoon, with northeasterly winds of 10-15 kt north of Cape Hatteras but generally light and variable flow around 5-10 kt south. Front is expected to push across all waters later this afternoon with uniform northeasterly winds across all zones. Beyond tonight, high pressure builds towards the waters on Sunday with northerly winds easing to around 10 kt or so through the day. Seas north of Hatteras hover around 3-5 feet, 2-3 feet south. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 405 AM Saturday...Nrly flow relaxes Sunday, allowing seas to subside to 2-4 ft Sunday aftn and 2-3 ft by Monday. Light Nrly flow will persist across the northern waters Monday with WNWrly winds turning SWrly across the southern waters in the aftn. SW flow becomes prevailing across all waters Tue and Tue night, reaching 20 kts in the evening and seas gradually building to 3-5 ft. Winds relax once again Wed with seas returning to 2-3 ft. && .CLIMATE... A dry and unusually cool airmass moving into the area may lead to temperatures coming close to, or breaking, record lows Monday morning, June 20th. Below are the locations with the greatest risk of seeing record or near-record temperatures then. Record Low temps for 6/20 (Monday morning) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 58/2016 (KEWN ASOS) Greenville 54/1979 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Kinston 51/1900 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 57/2016 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/CEB SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...ML/RCF AVIATION...MS/ML/CEB MARINE...MS/ML/CEB/RCF CLIMATE...MHX
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1001 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Anomalously dry airmass across the Tennessee valley and Appalachians. PWs are very dry (between 0.4 and 0.6 inch). Looking at the SPC PW climatology shows this range well below the 10 percentile moving average for mid to late June, essentially near the daily min. Surface ridge will continue to build into the area with dewpoints dropping into the upper 20s and 30s. Relative humidity will fall into the teens to mid 20s. The latest HRRR model actually has dewpoints falling into the teens. Conditions Sunday will feel more like the desert southwest United States then typical southern Appalachian humidity. Current forecast looks on track. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions are expected at CHA, TYS, and TRI through the forecast period. Building surface ridging has kept northerly winds breezy today but weaker for Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 87 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 84 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 84 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 80 53 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
829 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A gradual warming trend will begin on Sunday as high pressure begins to build over the region. More robust warming is anticipated Monday into Tuesday with the interior reaching into the mid/upper 90s with the region`s warmest locations peaking between 100-105 deg F on Tuesday. Temperatures cool slightly late week yet remain above seasonal averages. && of 08:28 PM PDT Saturday...Another late afternoon/early evening of weather excitement as showers and thunderstorms developed over Napa/Yolo/Solano counties. Most of the activity was on the periphery of Napa county, but a few showers did manage to enter the county. Since then shower activity has diminished and the radar has been put into clear air mode. For tonight - a few low clouds will be possible along the coast and locally inland, especially Monterey Bay region. HREF model is the most aggressive with potential low clouds while the HRRR less so. Official( NBM ) forecast will lean toward the HRRR with some developing stratus. For Father`s Day and Juneteenth - expect any morning low clouds to dissipated by mid morning giving way to ample sunshine in the afternoon. Additionally, the cooler weather as of late will come to an end. Temperatures on Sunday will warm closer to seasonal averages with highs in 60s/70s at the coast and 70s/mid 80s inland. A solid seabreeze again in the afternoon leading to breezy conditions along the coast, higher peaks, coastal gaps, and inland passes. Despite some wind it will be a pleasant Sunday for outdoor activities. The weather impacts for the upcoming days will be hot weather returning and increased fire weather concerns. Be weather aware the next few days as forecast details are fine tuned. Current forecast shows peak heat on Tuesday, which could rival the June 10 heat even. More info below... && .PREV of 01:51 PM PDT Saturday...As the aforementioned mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the Intermountain West on Sunday, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build toward the coastline. This will result in temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s across the interior while 60s and 70s hold near the coast in response to continued onshore flow. Temperatures rapidly warm on Monday and even more so on Tuesday with 850 mb temperatures approaching and then exceeding 20 deg C. This will bring more widespread 80s to lower 90s across the interior on Monday and mid/upper 90s to around 105 deg F in the region`s warmest locations on Tuesday. Meanwhile, coastal areas will be cooler due to continued onshore flow albeit weak. Having said that, still expecting temperatures near the coast to be 5-10 deg F above seasonal averages with the interior running 15-20 deg F above on Tuesday. Confidence is high that Tuesday will be the warmest of the week with the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is showing values of 0.7-0.9 along much of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast by 00Z Wednesday. Onshore flow is expected to increase slightly on Wednesday allowing for temperatures too cool by a few degrees region-wide. However, the air mass aloft remains very warm into the end of the week resulting in only a gradual cooling trend. Expecting Heat Risk levels to reach moderate for interior areas from Tuesday into Thursday, meaning those sensitive to heat should take precautions to seek adequate cooling during peak daytime heating and stay hydrated. Dry weather conditions will also prevail region-wide through the forecast period, aside from those isolated showers/t-storms in the short-term mentioned earlier. We will continue to monitor the heat expected next week and the need for any heat related products. In the meantime, be sure to prepare for much warmer and drier conditions through much of the upcoming week. Stay tuned... && of 7:05 PM PDT Saturday...For the 00Z TAFs. VFR conditions prevailing this evening, weak surface based instability and widely scattered convective clouds (mainly small cumulus clouds) are capped by some warming aloft i.e temperature inversion. With the loss of diurnal surface warming post sunset, convective clouds will dissipate. Earlier NAM, WRF, HRRR model output are ambitious with boundary layer humidity forecasts at least for the evening, later in the evening once nocturnal cooling sets in at least patchy coastal low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ are likely to redevelop. Additional warming aloft will provide the temperature cap for low clouds to form. We`re in the longest daylight hours of the year currently and with residual diurnal warming into the evening it`s near high confidence VFR holds through mid to late evening, then low to moderate confidence on areal coverage of low clouds late tonight and Sunday morning. It`s clear over the coastal waters presently, at the buoys air temps are greater than sea surface temps thus heat flux is downward and dewpoint temps are several degrees below sea surface temps and upward flux of water vapor (evaporation) is there, but so far insufficient to support low clouds. Development of low clouds out over the coastal waters tonight will likely be slow, at least at first. Will see what 00z guidance forecasts and adjust tafs accordingly if more in the way of low clouds look more probable. Otherwise VFR Sunday, onshore winds strengthening again in the afternoon and evening. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR, west wind increased to airport weather warning criteria during the evening, peak gust so far 38 knots/0046z. Not an easy forecast for wind this evening, SFO-SAC pressure gradient so far peaking 3.0 mb while Crissy Field webcam showed gusty winds through the Golden Gate late afternoon suggesting winds could`ve held just below criteria at SFO this evening just as well. An airport weather warning was issued 2316z /4:16 pm/ which lasts until 05z /10 pm/. Few-sct clouds forecast late tonight and Sunday morning, low to moderate confidence VFR continues through Sunday morning. Otherwise VFR for the remainder of Sunday along with a return of gusty west wind 20 to 30 knots. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay...Moderate to high confidence VFR continues into the evening since west to northwest winds against nearby higher coastal terrain along with residual diurnal surface warming is resulting in scattered to broken low clouds /small cumulus clouds/ mainly inland away from the terminals. With the loss of diurnal surface warming post sunset low clouds will dissipate. Challenging forecast ahead for the night and early Sunday morning determining timing of low cloud redevelopment closer to the terminals. KMRY/KSNS tempo groups indicate sct-bkn low cloud coverage /MVFR-IFR/ overnight. A return of surface diurnal warming Sunday will mix out the low clouds to VFR during the morning, VFR Sunday afternoon and early evening. West to northwest winds through the 00z taf cycle, winds easing at night to 5 to 10 knots resuming to 10 to 20 knots in the afternoon and early evening. && of 5:17 PM PDT Saturday...Northwest winds featuring stronger wind gusts will make for hazardous seas for smaller vessels. Strongest gusts will be located along the immediate coastline where the terrain can help accelerate the winds. A moderate period northwest swell arrives Sunday evening to mix in with the wind driven seas, while a weak southerly swell also remains in the background. Northwest windy conditions are forecast to remain through the early part of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/RGass AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: DK Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
840 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022 .EVENING UPDATE... The previous forecast remains on track with just a few minor changes based off the latest guidance. So far late this afternoon and evening the bulk of the shower activity has been focused near the Cascade crests and over parts of the Columbia Basin near Benton County into the Simcoe Mountains and eastern Yakima Valley. With the loss of diurnal heating and the axis of the elongated trough overhead slowly shifting east this activity should decrease and weaken overnight. Have trended towards the HRRR solution into Sunday morning as it seems to have had a better handle on the showers today, especially over the Columbia Basin, compared to other guidance. Otherwise, expect continued pop-up showers near the Cascade crests and portions of the eastern Mountains into Wallowa County on Sunday as the trough lumbers towards Idaho. Drier and warmer conditions return Monday through the rest of the work week. 99 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022/ SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday...Water vapor imagery currently showing a low pressure system centered over south central Oregon, bringing with it bands of light showers across the Basin and eastern mountains. Showers straddling the Oregon and Washington border in the Basin have lingered through much of the day, while convective cells across the northern Blues and Wallowas have been much more spotty and short-lived. Have seen a few lightning strikes associated with these cells over Wallowa County, but otherwise areas have seen mostly light to moderate rain with isolated to scattered coverage, a trend expected to continue into the early evening as the bulk of instability and moisture transport falls to the east of our forecast area. Latest CAMs suggesting more convective development could form over the John Day/Ochoco Highlands later in the afternoon, however cloud cover across these areas has been pretty extensive much of the day, working to cool temperatures quite a bit compared to forecasted highs. Still plenty of moisture and lift available given the low`s position near the area, but expecting primarily showers rather than thunderstorms, if anything does form. Models then wind down shower activity by nightfall, as the upper-level low pushes further eastward and leaves us within drier N/NW flow aloft heading into Sunday. Could see some light upslope showers along the Cascade crests and some convective activity across eastern Wallowa County Sunday as models bring the low in overhead for the latter, but chances are low and largely expecting Sunday to be quiet. Breezy winds, which have prevailed across the Gorge, Basin, and Kittitas Valley today, will continue into Sunday, with gusts approaching 30 mph for some of these areas, possibly higher for the Kittitas Valley. As this upper- level low continues to lift northeastward, a cutoff low will drop south into California and leave us within a dry slot to start off the work week. Monday will begin the onset of a warming trend as the synoptic pattern begins to shift towards more zonal heading into later in the week. Evans/74 LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Guidance in fairly good agreement of a mostly quiet weather pattern through the extended period. Tuesday, flow aloft will become zonal as an upper low meanders across northern to central BC and a dissipating cut-off low dives south along the CA border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance do indicate a shortwave with a dissipating frontal boundary rounding the upper low and passing across northern WA late Wednesday through Thursday morning, however if any precipitation does result it will be mostly to our north. That said, ensemble guidance and cluster analysis do indicate a very low chance for rain showers to develop across the WA Cascades during that period. Everywhere else, breezy west winds will develop as the remnants of a frontal boundary push south and east across the area. Thursday into the weekend, the low to our north will push into central Canada while high pressure aloft builds along the west coast. Flow aloft will initially be zonal through late Thursday, with a slight turn to the southwest late Friday into Saturday as high pressure attempts amplify in the eastern Pacific. Though conditions will be dry and warm during this period, the southwest flow could result in precipitation chances over next weekend, though ensemble guidance depicts this chance as very low at this time. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will generally be in the 70s to 80s through the period, though the Columbia Basin could make a run for the lower 90s on Wednesday afternoon. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Some showers through this evening end overnight and then develop again Sunday possible impacting PDT and ALW. Occasional CIGS of SCT-BKN AOA 6kft to 10kft AGL. Winds will generally be 10-20kts with gusts up to 25kts at times through this evening then decreasing to 5-10kts overnight. Winds back up to 10-20kts on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 49 71 49 75 / 20 10 0 0 ALW 51 70 52 74 / 30 10 0 0 PSC 54 75 54 78 / 30 10 0 0 YKM 47 73 47 76 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 51 75 52 79 / 30 10 0 0 ELN 48 66 50 69 / 10 10 0 0 RDM 41 65 41 73 / 10 10 0 0 LGD 44 61 44 68 / 20 20 10 0 GCD 42 61 43 70 / 30 10 0 0 DLS 52 70 52 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...82