Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/18/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
958 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler this weekend with well below normal temperatures,
along with a few showers at times Saturday night into Sunday.
Drier conditions with near normal temperatures should return for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM update...
Initial cold front still hung up across SE MA and southern RI.
Wind shift to NW behind the front with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s interior with some upper 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints
still in the mid 60s ahead of the front. Latest HRRR suggests
front weakens as it moves across Cape/Islands overnight with a
subtle wind shift to W. Gradual low level drying will allow
stratus and patchy fog at Nantucket to erode.
Secondary shortwave moves into the region overnight and will
bring some cloud cover, especially interior, but any showers
should remain to the north and west. Lows will range through the
50s in the interior, coolest in the Berkshires, with lower 60s
closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A steep trough digs into the region overnight; as an
unseasonably cold airmass settles over southern New England;
much cooler air is on tap for the weekend . Both 850 and 925mb
temperatures are dismally cold, with 850mb temps anticipated to
range between -1 and 3C... brr! Temperatures will be coldest
across the highest terrain, where some localities will struggle
to reach 60F on Saturday. Eastern MA and coastal RI will be
among the warmest spots tomorrow, as temperatures aloft are not
quite as cold; high temps will reach closer to 70F across the
coastal plain.
The day will begin with sunshine, but clouds will increase as the
day goes on as an increase as low and mid level moisture pivots into
our region thanks the cyclonic flow around a low centered to our
north and east.
Winds will also be gusty again tomorrow, as a somewhat generous low
level jet parks itself over southern New England for the weekend.
925mb winds range from 25 to 30 kt across the higher terrain, while
SE MA, the Cape, and Islands find some relief from the breeze in a
LLJ "donut hole"; gusts in these locations will be generally below
20 kt Saturday. It is not often that Nantucket experiences the least
gusty conditions of the entire CWA!
Surface dewpoints continue to plummet through the period, and will
settle into the low and mid 40s by early Sunday morning. Thankfully,
clouds and blustery NW flow will keep us from radiating overnight.
Lows will tumble back into the upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday
night, coolest across NW MA and warmest along the coast.
Shower chances increase overnight Saturday into Sunday as well,
primarily across eastern MA. Areas to the west of Worcester
look to remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...
Highlights...
* Chilly nights this weekend. An unseasonably cool Sunday but temps
start to moderate for CT valley.
* Tranquil weather with moderating temps to start the new work week.
Details...
Still expecting a changeable weather pattern during this portion of
the forecast. We start out with the core of an anomalous cold pool
aloft just moving offshore of the southern New England coast Sunday
morning. The mid level flow over the North Atlantic looks rather
blocky and meridional for most of this time, so am not expecting
this cold pool to move quickly off to the east. That said, this
feature should at least be able to move far enough away from our
region where its influence on our weather will be greatly diminished.
At the surface, thinking an approaching warm front essentially
stalls mid week to our west, then occludes as its paired cold front
catches it and squeezes the warm sector of a low pressure in Canada
farther south.
Temperature-wise, most of southern New England is expected to be 5-
10 degrees below normal Sunday, transitioning to near normal Monday
and Tuesday. Not seeing signs of the truly oppressive heat gripping
much of the central part of the USA reaching here this week. Am
thinking temperatures will trend slightly above normal Wednesday
into Friday next week.
Thinking most of next week will remain dry across southern New
England, with only an approaching front the most likely focus for
any showers. Not entirely convinced this front will even reach our
region until late next week. Humidity should be slowly increasing as
next week progresses. As it does, cannot completely dismiss the
possibility of popup afternoon showers, especially across interior
southern New England, Tuesday into Thursday. Stuck with the
NationalBlend precipitation chances during this time, as it is a
larger ensemble. The greatest risk of any showers will be along and
west of I-91 in CT and MA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z Update...
Tonight...High Confidence.
VFR for most terminals. IFR/LIFR stratus and patchy fog over
Islands, will improve to VFR 02-06z as wind shifts to W/NW.
Otherwise VFR with W/NW wind 5-15 kt with a few G20kt possible
over higher terrain.
Saturday...High confidence.
VFR with sct-bkn cigs 4-5k ft developing. NW gusts to 20-25 kt
developing.
Saturday Night...Moderate confidence.
MVFR/VFR for most terminals with sct-bkn cigs 2-4k ft. NW gusts
15-20 kt. Slight chance of RW- across eastern MA, Cape, and
Islands.
KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Winds shift to W tonight with gusts to 20 kt then a period of
NW gusts 20-25 kt expected Sat. Poor vsbys expected this
afternoon/evening over south coastal waters in areas of dense
fog, improving later tonight. While winds look to die back
inside of a "donut hole" of the LLJ across our southeastern
waters on Saturday, heightened waves look to persist through
much of the weekend, so small crafts will likely need to be
extended to account for such through most of Saturday and
Sunday.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Gaucher/KS
MARINE...Belk/KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
A 594 dm high as analyzed by latest RAP analysis remains centered
over Southwest Missouri this afternoon, with weak southeasterly flow
aloft over South-Central Texas. At the surface, winds remain fairly
light in comparison to the last several days, at generally less than
10 kts out of the east-southeast. As the region is south of the
Subtropical Ridge and flow is more east/southeasterly, a weak sea
breeze may develop this afternoon/early evening. Whether or not any
sort of convection can initiate, is the biggest question. As it
stands right now, latest hi res guidance is not particularly
bullish, given fairly warm EML/700 mb temperatures over the Coastal
Plains. With that being said, think that the region will remain
largely capped, with little in the way of coverage this evening.
Will keep PoPs below 10% in the Coastal Plains, with the outside
shot that something could form. Temperatures remain mighty toasty,
but with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s, heat indices will not
be much of an issue, despite afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s
and lower 100s.
For tonight, we are not expecting quite as much widespread cloud
cover, despite east/southeasterly surface flow. Will stick with some
low stratus developing closer to sunrise, but that should quickly
mix out by mid morning, leading to yet another hot day Saturday.
Highs will top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s area wide. As is
always recommended, continue to be mindful of the heat, by reducing
strenuous activities, drinking plenty of water, and finding some
A.C. to cool off.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
An upper level blocking pattern will initially have a hold on the
Central CONUS and dry and hot weather will continue to persist
throughout the duration of the long-term portion of the forecast.
The upper ridge axis will eventually break down on the northern end
as a trough moves into the northern CONUS shifting the center of the
ridge to the Southern Plains by early next week and continuing into
Thursday. Temperatures through Wednesday will peak in upper 90s
through 103 for most of the area with slightly warmer values by the
end of the long-term forecast. Although the above normal
temperatures continue for this time of the year, things look to be
mainly be just below Heat Advisory criteria for now. Unfortunately,
no rain is expected through next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Saturday evening.
FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds develop overnight and mix out by late
morning. Similar to this morning, have introduced a TEMPO for MVFR
CIGs at KSSF, while there is less potential at the other sites.
Southeasterly winds 5 to 15 KTs prevail through the forecast, though
trend southerly around 5 KTs at the I-35 sites overnight into
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 98 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 100 75 102 / 10 10 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 74 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...29
Aviation...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
950 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Sure enough, a few blips have shown up on radar over SE Washington
county over the past several scans. The HRRR continues to show a few
showers drifting SE over the Louisville metro toward Midnight. Given
how consistent the HRRR has been with timing and placement, and we
are actually see some returns now on radar went ahead and added a 20
pop around the Louisville metro for a couple of hours.
Previous Update...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, and it is largely
expected to stay that way overnight. However, we may still have an
outside shot an a few showers around the Louisville metro later this
evening. The cold front is showing up very nicely on mosaic radar
imagery dropping south of IND at this hour. It is actually moving at
a pretty good clip (around 20 mph) with a very notable and welcome
airmass change behind it (dew points in the 40s). As the front
approaches the Ohio River toward Midnight, it may set off an area of
agitated cu around the metro area. The HRRR has been consistently
showing a few showers later this evening with each run, so tough to
rule it out. Also noticed on SPC mesoanalysis that there is an area
of surface moisture convergence associated with the agitated cu, so
it may not take a whole lot else other than the front to set a few
showers off. The good news is that there is a notable inversion just
below 700mb (confirmed by recent AMDAR sounding), so any shower
should actually be capped around 10 k feet. Am debating on adding a
20% chance for a couple of hours around Midnight to account for this
isolated shower potential.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
A long-awaited break in the heat wave is beginning, but we could
still have some warm and muggy conditions to deal with this
afternoon and evening. Rain-cooled post-MCS regime may not last more
than another couple of hours, and the sfc cold front still lags near
the I-70 corridor.
Not to worry, as the cooler and less humid air will eventually
arrive, given a strong closed upper low diving SE from James Bay to
Maine and a 1028mb sfc high dropping down toward Gitche Gumee. Temps
tonight will run just below climo but the drop in dewpoints will be
gradual through the night. Chamber of Commerce weather is expected
on Saturday with lots of sunshine, temps just barely touching 80,
and dewpoints crashing into the 40s in some locations. Decent
pressure gradient on the periphery of the high will give us a fairly
fresh NNE breeze, with 20-25 mph gusts at times.
.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Saturday Night and Sunday...
The beginning of the extended period will kick off with seasonable
temperatures and comfortable dewpoints as surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes region provides cool and dry northeasterly flow to
the Ohio Valley. Mid- and upper-level NW flow will be present as an
upper-level trough will be located along the east coast of North
America with an amplified ridge present across the center of the
continent. Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the 50s across
the area as mostly clear skies and light winds allow for enhanced
radiational cooling. During the day on Sunday, expect mostly sunny
skies with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and low-to-mid
80s.
Monday - Thursday...
It looks like the break from intense heat will be short-lived as mid-
and upper-level ridging moves back into the Ohio and lower
Mississippi Valleys for the early-to-middle part of next week. There
is still disagreement between the medium-range guidance suites as to
the extent of the heat wave, especially for Tuesday and beyond. WPC
Cluster Analysis continues to show the ECMWF ensemble members
favoring a stronger 500 mb ridge in comparison to the GFS/CMC
ensembles, which promote a flattening in the ridge during the mid-
week time frame. This difference is also observed in 850-mb
temperature anomaly data, with the EPS Ensemble Situational
Awareness Table suggesting temperatures which could be 3-4 standard
deviations above normal, compared with a 1-2 sigma anomaly in the
GFS+CMC ensemble solutions. Due to uncertainty in the veracity of
the ECMWF solution, will continue to show restraint with temperature
forecasts for next week, keeping temps a few degrees below NBM
guidance for now. This will still leave us with several days of
middle- and upper-90s across the region during the Tuesday through
Thursday time frame, with lows falling into the low-to-mid 70s at
night.
As far as precipitation chances are concerned, PoPs should remain
dry through Wednesday afternoon with the ridge and surface high
pressure in control. If the ridge does break down more (as in the
GFS/CMC solutions), showers and thunderstorms may return to the
picture across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Wednesday into Thursday. However, if the ECMWF solution is borne
out, expect dry conditions to persist through at least Thursday.
This persistent hot and dry weather may lead to flash drought
concerns, especially in areas which received little-to-no rain
today.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Look for light winds shifting from the NW to N overnight as a
frontal boundary sinks southward through the area. A few to sct
clouds around 4-5 K feet may linger through around midnight or so as
well. By sunrise on Saturday, look for stead NNE surface winds
between 10 and 15 mph, with a few gusts up around 20 mph possible.
Otherwise sky cover looks to be very little, if any, so will carry
SKC.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...BJS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...CSG
Aviation...BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1019 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A good deal of cirrus/cirro-stratus clouds remain across the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this evening and will
continue much of the night. A frontal boundary will move into the
area early Saturday morning bringing with it much drier air.
Airmass ahead of this boundary continues to stabilize with CAPES
below 500. Latest HRRR does show an isolated shower or two
possible across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee early
in the morning but coverage is limited.
Due to recent rains, mostly clear/partly cloudy sky, and
calm/light winds, patchy fog development is expected overnight.
Made some changes to going hourly temperatures to reflect current
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Only slight chance of showers this evening. Main concern is
potential of fog development. Due to this afternoon`s rains,
patchy fog development is expected with the greatest potential at
TRI. Also possible at TYS/CHA but confidence is too low to
include.
Otherwise, cool front with much drier airmass will move into the
Tennessee valley for Saturday. Clear sky is anticipated. Biggest
concern for Saturday is the tightening pressure gradient as
surface high begins to build into the southern Appalachians. North
winds of 10 to 20kts with gusts to 25kts for Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 62 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 84 58 85 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 84 58 85 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 50 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
437 PM MST Fri Jun 17 2022
.UPDATE...0Z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific low pressure system will bring breezy conditions to the
Desert Southwest today along with an increase in moisture tonight
and Saturday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms the
next few days, particularly from Phoenix eastward. With the
increased moisture and threat of storms, below normal temperatures
are likely this weekend. A warming trend is expected next week as
high pressure becomes reestablished across the southern US.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery reveals a large cyclonic vortex off the
northern California coast. This system is anomalous for mid-June
and it will bring us some atypical weather the next few days. Strong
southerly flow ahead of the low ha pulled mid/high level moisture
northward across central/eastern AZ this afternoon. Latest 88-D
radar imagery is showing some virga/very light sprinkles moving
northward across eastern Maricopa/southern Gila counties with some
TS activity showing up further to the east over the White Mtns
southward into eastern Cochise County. Given the inverted-V
soundings, the potential still exists for localized strong wind
gusts, perhaps in excess of 40 mph across portions of central
Arizona through the remainder of the afternoon/early evening hours.
The HRRR and the U of A WRF has been consistent depicting a complex
of storms developing across southeastern Arizona tonight. There is a
chance this complex will produce an outflow boundary strong enough
to generate blowing dust across Pinal and southeastern Maricopa
Counties. If the outflow is even stronger, it will provide a boost
in low-level moisture convergence as it moves northward and
interacts with the southwesterly gradient flow. This convergence
combined with increasing forced ascent associated with an elongated
vort lobe extending back into the low could promote the development
of scattered shower activity after midnight across portions of
central Arizona. There are indications that this activity could
linger into Saturday morning, given the near record values of IVT.
This moisture plume will shift northeastward during the day
Saturday, but in its wake, latest HREF indicates breaks in the
clouds giving way to increasing instability. The U of A WRF is now
indicating a corridor of elevated MUCAPE (aoa 1000 J/kg extending
northward across extreme eastern Maricopa/eastern Pinal/Gila
Counties) developing by midday Saturday.
For Saturday afternoon, the forecast reflects the latest NBM
which indicates PoPs near 40 percent across the Phoenix area and
up to 70 percent further east. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning, winds in excess of 50
mph, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Flooding potential will be
highest across the burn scars east of Phoenix. In the Valley,
GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble members have trended lower and generally
point to a high likelihood of rainfall at or below a tenth of an
inch. Nevertheless, the KPHX record rainfall of 0.25 inches (set
in 1967) is within reach.
Operational GFS/ECMWF indicate drier air will overspread the
lower deserts by Sunday. However, lingering moisture will be
sufficient for scattered convection in the higher terrain east of
Phoenix. Better moisture may return by the middle of next week as
southwesterly flow aloft shears moisture from decaying tropical
systems into the Desert Southwest. However ridging aloft will likely
keep the atmosphere too stable for significant convective
development, except for the higher terrain north and east of
Phoenix, where some isolated-scattered TS development could occur.
The ridging aloft will likely lead to warmer temperatures through
the middle and end of next week, with lower desert highs likely
exceeding 110 degrees once again by the end of next week.
Unfortunately the increasing moisture aloft will likely hamper
nighttime cooling during the mid/late parts of next week, leading to
lows remaining well up into the 80`s across the south-central AZ
lower deserts, perhaps even approaching 90 degrees at the warmest
urban locations.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2340Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
IMPACTS:
-Scattered shower chances later tonight through Saturday
-Locally gusty winds in vicinity of virga/showers
-Low (20-30%) risk of thunderstorms affecting terminals Saturday
PM
Complex forecast through the TAF period, leading to low confidence
at times. With moisture increasing from the south and favorable
jet dynamics encroaching, expect continued SCT/BKN clouds around
15KFT, perhaps lowering somewhat to around 10KFT tomorrow. A
period of gusty SW breezes early this evening will back around to
the SE tonight after 6Z. Available guidance supports the potential
(30-40% risk) for showers/virga to develop from 6Z through the
rest of the night around the area. Though not explicitly in the
TAF, erratic and gusty winds would accompany this should
development occur. Winds on Saturday will be dictated by proximity
of rain/thunder development to the metro. Large share of this
activity should be near and east of KIWA. This will be when the
highest risk (20-30%) exists for any thunderstorms to affect the
terminals. Will have to continue monitoring for any outflow-
induced pockets of BLDU as well.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At IPL, Gusty W sundowner winds are expected this evening with
gusts upwards of 25 kts possible along with some lofted dust
around the county. Gusts lessen overnight before picking up to
20-30KT by Saturday afternoon. For KBLH gusty S-SW winds are
favored with gusts near 25 kts, with with slightly reduced vsby
near 6 SM in blowing dust through the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry and breezy conditions are expected today ahead of a low
pressure system off the California coast. Winds and RHs may
approach critical thresholds for a few hours and in localized areas
of southwestern Arizona and SE CA this afternoon. Moisture however
will be on the increase tonight and Saturday across SW/South-Central
AZ, which will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
particularly from Phoenix eastward. Any thunderstorms that develop
have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds. There is also
a slight chance of dry lightning, mainly across eastern Arizona
through Saturday. The combination of much drier conditions and
continued gusty winds will likely lead to elevated Fire Danger
levels again Saturday afternoon across SE CA. Wetting rains will
likely be relegated to far eastern Arizona by Sunday. High pressure
will build back across the Desert Southwest next week, resulting in
a warming trend and a return to above normal temperatures by
midweek. There may also be enough moisture to support at least
isolated showers and storms across the higher terrain north and east
of Phoenix by Wednesday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ562.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Percha/Hirsch
AVIATION...Heil
FIRE WEATHER...Percha/Hirsch
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
Upper ridge axis was centered over the High Plains at 18Z per recent
water vapor imagery with high cloud lingering overhead indicating
the center of the upper high was nearby. Southerly flow has
returned to most of the CWA with the old frontal boundary across
southeastern Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Latest RAP analysis
shows some inhibition remaining near the boundary though weak
convergence along it should keep convection in check. Dewpoints have
recovered into the upper 60s to middle 70s after last night`s
outflow boundary mixed out.
The main question through early next week is afternoon heat indices
with the upper pattern largely steady-state and only slow changes at
the lower levels. Surface high pressure builds south into the Ohio
Valley Sunday and brings slightly backed winds into eastern Kansas.
Though dewpoints may still hold in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most of the area, temps look to be a bit lower as a result even
leaning on the warmer end of guidance with some cumulus potential.
This keeps heat indices in the upper 90s to around 103 for the bulk
of the area, and not to levels of a confident Advisory, especially
considering the area has seen a few days of near to much more
extreme conditions recently and lows this morning and tonight in the
upper 60s to middle 70s. Winds veer Sunday into Monday for warmer
temps but lower dewpoints, especially as ground conditions continue
to dry. There continues to be potential for heat indices to touch on
mid 100s for at least portions of the area through Monday and
perhaps Tuesday before a front works its way near/into the area as
the ridge temporarily breaks down across the northern Plains. Will
keep the Excessive Heat Watch going and some chance PoPs with the
boundary though confidence in the boundary reaching beyond the
northern counties is not high. Heat indices may return to triple
digits by late next week as the ridge axis rebuilds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds
will be light and variable tonight, then will return to the
south southeast at 8-10 kts by early Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...Laflin